Considering the positive feedback I received from my preseason
Targeting Greatness column, it only made sense to include it
in the regular-season rotation. After all, if we can put a number
on how well-connected a quarterback is with his receivers, running
backs or tight ends a quarter of the way through the season, it
only makes sense to use that tool.
As I said in the July column, target totals tell part of the
story. They leave out a bit of context, however, especially when
all the players from all 32 teams are lumped together. For instance,
seven targets is a good number for a receiver to hit most weeks.
On a day in which the quarterback drops back 55 times, it is much
less impressive. This is where target shares are helpful.
Target shares refer to the percentage of the "target pie" a player
receives on his own team. Ideally, target shares allow us to get
a handle on just how much of a "go-to guy" a particular player
is. Most of the time (at least during the preseason), target shares
are utilized from a broader point of view, such as a half of a
season or all 16 games. As I did in July, I want to look at it
from a weekly perspective. I'm not trying to confirm Antonio
Brown, Julio
Jones and Odell
Beckham Jr. are great - no one needs me to tell them how dominant
they are. I'm more interested in providing information that allows
owners to make smarter trades and waiver-wire adds.
For the sake of keeping the chart as useful as possible, I have
eliminated any non-receiver (quarterback, offensive lineman, etc.).
Injured players are included to highlight how much of the "pie"
teammates will have to pick up in their absence.
Note: You can sort
each column as you wish. The numbers highlighted in green are
weeks in which a player achieved at least a 30 percent target
share. Blue numbers indicate a player finishing between 25-29.9
percent in that week.
** All target totals used in this piece courtesy of Pro Football
Reference.
Most of us knew that A.J. Green was set up for a huge percentage
of the targets in Cincinnati this year, at least as long as Tyler
Eifert was sidelined. It's safe to say his owners have not felt
neglected in that regard, as Green as enjoyed a target share of
at least 38.7 percent in three of his four games. Generally speaking,
30 percent is an elite target rate, so Green commanding nearly
40 percent is incredible. With Eifert likely sidelined at least
one more week as a result of a back issue, Green should be in
line for two or three more weeks of otherworldly target shares.
Suffice it to say Green should expect pretty substantial regression
around midseason assuming Eifert can return and actually stay
on the field, so it may not be a bad idea for Green's owners to
see if he be included in a trade to get Antonio Brown. Green is
going to remain a target monster regardless - like we expected
- so owners are certainly justified in holding on to him as well.
Just don't expect him to continue receiving 38.7 percent of his
team's targets every week.
Three players have enjoyed a target share of at least 25 percent
in every game so far this season: The first two aren't terribly
surprising: T.Y. Hilton and Jarvis Landry, the latter of which
had 12 such games last season. Landry's floor is ridiculously
in PPR leagues despite a relative lack of touchdowns, but we already
knew that. Hilton is already one such game shy of matching his
2015 output, but the loss of Donte Moncrief has something to do
with that. And let's not forget Andrew Luck missed almost half
of last season, which is another huge contributing factor.
The second might come as a shock: Kevin White. Considering White
just went on IR this week, this has huge implications for fantasy
owners. Alshon Jeffery hasn't eclipsed seven targets or a 16.3
percent share yet this season, so he seems likely to see at least
a five percent bump going forward. (He was over 25 percent in
seven of nine games last year, albeit under a different offensive
coordinator.) The player most likely to benefit - and we saw a
glimpse of this last week - is Eddie Royal, who shockingly already
has three games with a target share of higher than 22.3 percent.
(Again, Jeffery has no such efforts yet.) Now before we get too
crazy on Royal, please understand the Bears have yet to accumulate
40 "true targets" in a game yet, so Royal has yet to
exceed the seven targets he managed last week. With that said,
Royal will be the natural choice to replace White as a starter
and a pretty good bet to exceed the 52.8 percent catch rate White
had on his 36 targets this season (Royal has caught 81.8 percent
of his targets through four games).
Jordy Nelson has enjoyed no less than a 27.3 percent target share
thus far, which is roughly on the same pace he was on during his
monstrous 2014 season and pretty incredible considering he did
not play in the preseason and was limited throughout camp. The
biggest difference between pre-ACL injury and now? Nelson is averaging
12.1 YPC, which is more than three yards per catch lower than
any mark he has posted since 2010. We started seeing a little
bit more of his big-play ability in Week 3 against Detroit, but
the whole offense is still in a bit of a funk. (Aaron Rodgers
is completing a career-low - at least since he became a full-time
starter - 58.5 percent of his passes, has yet to attempt more
than 36 throws or pass for more than 213 yards.) What does it
mean? I believe it could mean several things, including the possibility
Green Bay is starting to buy into more of a small-ball mentality
on offense. (It is a possibility, although I'm not ready to buy
into it quite yet. The sample size is very small as well.) One
observation I feel safe in making is that Nelson is playing at
his ceiling given the current environment, and I tend to believe
the Packers have made a conscious effort to feed him the ball
early in order to open up the rest of the passing game going forward.
While Will Fuller is shaping up to be the late-round steal owners
love to brag about, DeAndre Hopkins hasn't come close to returning
the value owners believed he had when they spent a mid-first round
pick on him this summer. Last year, Hopkins had 12 games in which
he at least a 25-percent target share and nine with at least 30
percent. Although it was unrealistic to expect a repeat given
Houston's investment into the wide receiver position during the
draft this spring, I'm fairly certain owners weren't expecting
three games of eight or fewer targets through one quarter of the
season from "Nuk". There's no doubt defenses are still
in the mode of making someone else besides Hopkins beat them,
but I'm not sure owners are going to get the kind of market correction
they are hoping for.
Doug Baldwin is off to a fast start after his career year in
2015 … or is he? The numbers say he's averaging 17.2 fantasy
points per game, which is better than last year's 16.8. However,
through a quarter of the season, he's seen a target share below
18 percent twice and over 26 percent twice. Over 79 percent of
his fantasy points and 67.7 percent of his targets have come in
two games, meaning he's been a WR1 in half of his games (both
at home) and a WR4 in the other two (both on the road). It's way
too early and much too small of a sample size to suggest Baldwin
is going to be a home/road receiver or if his early tendency to
follow a big game with a dud is going to be a trend, but the fact
of the matter is Seattle's passing-game schedule has been pretty
favorable so far, so owners might want to pay special attention
to him over the next two weeks. If Jimmy Graham continues to shine
like he has recently, it might be wise to sell high on Baldwin
after another big game.
Jeremy Kerley has run 115 routes this season and been targeted
on 32 of them. Perhaps more surprisingly, he has seen at least
30 percent of his team's targets in half of their games so far,
which is not surprising when you consider the rest of the roster
and amazing when you really understand what it means when one
player is receiving nearly a third of his team's targets. Relatively
speaking, "average" players rarely go over 30 percent
target share in a game once in a season - much less twice in a
month - so when a player does reach that mark, he is going to
be fantasy-relevant almost regardless of how average his quarterback
might be. Torrey Smith and Quinton Patton aren't going to miraculously
evolve into quality short and intermediate targets and Blaine
Gabbert isn't going to turn into a deep-ball thrower, meaning
about the only thing that will keep Kerley from performing at
a WR3 level going forward is just how much Vance McDonald and
Garrett Celek get involved.
Trending Upward
John Brown scared all of us just a bit when he was slow to recover
from his concussion in late July, but he could be making up for
lost time. After combining for seven targets over the first two
weeks on a limited snap count, "Smokey" has totaled
27 targets over his last two. He had a 22 percent snap target
share in Week 3 and a highly impressive 36.4 percent mark in a
four-point loss in Week 4. I'm not here to suggest to 16 targets
or that astronomical target share is going to become a common
occurrence, but I think we should expect Brown and Larry Fitzgerald
to lead the Cardinals in target-share percentage on a regular
basis going forward. Brown is a borderline WR3 with Drew Stanton
at the controls but has WR2 upside if Carson Palmer shows any
hint of recapturing his 2015 form at some point this season.
Fantasy football rarely ever makes perfect sense and Oakland's
offense is an example of that. HC Jack Del Rio was either completely
untruthful about his plans for the backfield in the preseason
or could care less about alienating his best running back. OC
Bill Musgrave isn't doing much better, perhaps trying to shed
his reputation as an ultraconservative play-caller by allowing
Derek Carr to air it out 40 times per game. I have no problem
with him doing that given the talent on the team, but the use
of Amari Cooper as primarily a big-play receiver and Michael Crabtree
as the primary red-zone option - and Seth Roberts as the second
option - is baffling to me. Let's give credit where credit is
due: Crabtree is as trusty as they come, but it is hard to defend
his seeing 30-plus percent of the team's target share when Cooper
is struggling to get over 25 percent. Perhaps this is a Carr problem
and not a Musgrave problem, but given the chaos in the backfield
and Musgrave's history, I'm more inclined to believe it's the
latter. Perhaps after receiving only nine red-zone targets through
20 games as a Raider, we should conclude Cooper is going to be
an afterthought inside the 20 until further notice. So while we
cannot definitively say that Cooper is not the No. 1 receiver
in Oakland, we also cannot say that Crabtree is the No. 2. With
at least seven catches and nine targets in three of his first
four games, Crabtree is probably here to stay … again.
(Shockingly, I'm not a Cooper owner, so this wasn't a rant about
a second-round receiver I want to do better than WR32 after four
weeks.)
Do you remember the time when Buffalo only had one receiver worth
caring about? It's still the case, but just not the one we all
expected it to be a month ago. Robert Woods has been written off
roughly as often by his own coaching staff as he has by fantasy
owners, yet here we are. Since Sammy Watkins was placed on IR
before Week 3, Woods has seen at least a quarter of the Bills'
targets in both games against rather high-quality competition.
He has converted 13 of the 18 targets he's seen over that time
into catches, so he's not really giving Tyrod Taylor much of a
reason to look for other options. With the perpetually banged-up
Charles Clay, Greg Salas, Marquise Goodwin and Walter Powell serving
as his stiffest competition for targets - aside from LeSean McCoy
- there's really no reason to expect Wood's target share to decrease
anytime soon.
Whereas Greg Olsen has been very steady, the combined target
share percentages for Kelvin Benjamin over the last three weeks
barely exceed his Week 1 output. What is most interesting here
is that Benjamin enjoyed one of his finer games against Denver
(at least in the first half), so the typical "the matchup
was too tough" line of thinking may not applicable here.
As we saw on Monday night versus the Giants, Minnesota has been
very stingy against receivers, which explains Benjamin's goose
egg in Week 3. Desmond Trufant has emerged as one of the better
corners in the league, so it shouldn't have been a shock to see
KB have another slow day last week. The upside here is Benjamin
is still scoring touchdowns and probably will continue to do so
at a fairly high rate. The matchups are going to get easier, so
don't let a pair of somewhat lackluster performances change your
opinion of him. If an owner in your league has a different view,
don't be afraid to test his market.
Tavon Austin has come under some fire for his ridiculously low
4.5 yards per target as well as his 45.7 percent catch rate -
both of which are abysmal considering his talent (especially for
the former) and how often he is targeted at or behind the line
of scrimmage (especially for the latter) - and he isn't helping
his case with a league-high four drops. However, those drops really
are only a small part of the problem with his relative lack of
production. Last week marked the first time this season Austin
saw fewer than 30 percent of his team's targets, which means owners
need to hang on to him in hopes No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff
can eventually enjoy the same kind of success other rookies quarterbacks
have enjoyed around the league so far. The Rams' success to this
point is a double-edged sword for Austin, however, as they have
no reason to move away from Case Keenum when they are winning
75 percent of their games. Conversely, Austin probably has no
shot of maximizing his mammoth target share with Keenum under
center.
The Tajae Sharpe we thought we knew a month ago really hasn't
changed, but the situation has. His target share has held steady
- between 21.2 and 26.8 percent - but Marcus Mariota is struggling.
Sure, HC Mike Mularkey called out Sharpe a bit after a Week 3
loss, but the rookie has seen at least seven targets in every
game, which is enough for most receivers to maintain WR3 value.
The problem is his catch rate is currently at 50 percent after
going 7-for-11 in the opener and DeMarco Murray is monopolizing
all of the Titans' scoring opportunities. It's almost unheard
of in this day and age for a running back to see more red-zone
targets and have more catches than the team's top receiver, but
such is the case in Tennessee. Until Mariota picks up his play
and/or the Titans learn that one-score losses do not count as
victories, we can't expect much to change.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.