As discussed in this space last
week, the remainder of my postseason columns will feature my
NFL.com Playoff Challenge roster (for as long as applicable), followed
by my weekly league predictions and DFS prognostications. The further
we advance in the postseason, the deeper the analysis into the matchups.
Below you will find my position-by-position projections. Please
note I have included DraftKings' dollar value for each player,
followed by their projected point total. I won't spend a great
deal of time explaining each projection here - only some of the
more notable ones. Each position is sorted by my DraftKings' projected
point total.
Key for quarterbacks, running backs, receivers
and tight ends: P Yds - Passing Yards P TD - Passing Touchdowns INT - Interceptions Ru Yds - Rushing Yards Ru TD - Rushing Touchdowns Rec Yds - Receiving Yards Rec TD - Receiving Touchdowns Rec - Receptions
With Derrick Henry no longer available in the player pool, Alvin Kamara checks in as the only running back in the $7000+ range, and
he has arguably the worst matchup any running back can ask for in
the Bucs. Therefore, this is a week where DFS players can feel reasonably
good about paying up at quarterback. It also helps to have great
options, as we do with the top four quarterbacks listed above. Rodgers'
matchup with the Rams should not automatically remove him from consideration
with the other three - he does come at a slight discount - but it's
a risk to take for those DFS players submitting a limited number
of lineups. On the opposite end of the spectrum is Mahomes, who
has all of his weapons healthy and faces a Cleveland defense that
may not have CB Denzel Ward or Kevin Johnson for a full complement
of snaps after both came off the COVID list on Wednesday. That's
a recipe for the biggest statistical line I may have ever projected
for a quarterback. Kansas City HC Andy Reid could also reach the
conclusion that has me thinking twice about riding Mahomes too hard
in DFS: ride the running game a little bit more than usual to keep
the Browns from doing the same to his defense.
Whereas there is a chance Mahomes disappoints a bit this weekend,
Allen and Jackson are unlikely to do so unless they simply don't
play well. Both quarterbacks will see significant usage in the
running game and could be their team's leading rushers for a second
straight week. Baltimore's secondary would typically be a concern
for most quarterbacks, but Allen has topped 30 fantasy points
on DraftKings eight times this season, doing so against some of
the stingier defenses against quarterbacks (Rams and Patriots,
among others). Buffalo is also one of the few teams in the league
that may have more good/great options at receiver than Baltimore
does at cornerback. Jackson's low volume as a passer always makes
him a bit of a risk in fantasy, but his elite athleticism almost
always makes up for it. One thing to consider: Jackson told reporters
earlier this week he has never played in a snow game and didn't
want to start now. While that is hardly a big deal for most quarterbacks,
change of direction is a big part of his game. If that is compromised
in any way, he becomes a much less attractive option to fantasy
owners and would fall well behind Mahomes and Allen in my estimation.
A relatively strong case could be made that seven of the eight
quarterbacks playing this weekend are worth using in some fashion,
with only Goff and/or John
Wolford not making the cut. Of the lower-priced quarterbacks,
Mayfield would seem to have the highest ceiling for two reasons:
1) he has the ability to pick up a few fantasy points with his
legs and should have some running opportunities that come via
play-action bootleg throws and 2) Browns-Chiefs will be a high-scoring
game and Cleveland will be able to run the ball, giving Mayfield
the possibility of scoring a short rushing TD and/or throwing
for 2-3 short touchdowns. Brees averaged just over 190 yards passing
in the Saints' two easy wins over the Bucs during the regular
season, but it would seem Tampa Bay will be a slightly different
(and more challenging) animal than it was in the first two meetings.
If Tampa Bay continues to emphasize the short passing game and
play-action that has traditionally suited Brady's game for years
and fueled the team's recent offensive surge, Brees will need
to keep up. Furthermore, the Bucs' run defense is still very good
despite losing some key parts and mostly contained the Saints'
running game in the aforementioned two regular-season setbacks.
During the regular season, identifying the plus-matchups is a sound
and usually smart way to identify potential value in DFS. During
the postseason, I'd argue projecting volume is more important. Many
will point to the Chiefs' weak run defense as the reason to roll
with Chubb, but only two backs have topped 20 fantasy points against
Kansas City since Week 2. So while the former may be true (and it's
partly by design since the Chiefs are confident their offense can
go toe-to-toe with anyone), there isn't much proof to suggest opponents
have been able to take advantage. I would argue it will be more
important to get him 20-plus touches. Cleveland has done a fine
job of getting him in that general area since his return from a
knee injury in Week 10, and the reality of the situation is that
he's going to break at least one or two big runs every game with
that kind of volume because he has perhaps the best mix of talent
and instinct of any running back in the league.
Green Bay has shown in recent weeks it can be stout against the
run when DC Mike Pettine makes it enough of a priority (as he
did in Week 16 against the Titans when he utilized the same kind
of five-man line concept - to plug up inside running lanes - that
the Patriots and others famously used at the end of 2018 and most
of 2019 to befuddle the Rams. Green Bay gave up a big fantasy
game to David Montgomery in the season finale, but the majority
of NFL running backs will be able to total 132 yards and a touchdown
when they get 31 touches. With the Rams not having much clarity
at quarterback in recent weeks and a defense that is among the
league's best, it would be far from shocking if Akers gets another
30 touches like he did last week against what was supposed to
be a stout Seattle run defense. The big difference is that HC
Sean McVay's scheme and play-calling savvy gives him a higher
ceiling than Montgomery in Chicago. Circling back to my initial
point in the preceding paragraph, Chubb and Akers project to have
the most volume this week, and the likelihood is that winning
DFS lineups will almost certainly have one or both players in
them.
There's no question Dobbins has massive potential and upside,
so much so that he is going to hit in fantasy more often than
not even when he only sees fewer than 15 touches. The problem
is the rookie has only handled 15 touches three times in 16 career
games (including last week) and never any more than 17. The other
big issue for fantasy owners is that despite his all-purpose skill
set, he has a total of three targets in his last six games. In
short, as much as Baltimore's offensive philosophy enhances his
ability as a runner, it also greatly limits his overall fantasy
upside because he sees almost no usage as a receiver. The Bills
have shown cracks on occasion against the run and will be tested
as much as they have all year in that regard against Baltimore,
but the combination of Lamar Jackson rarely checking down and
the lack of time the Ravens spend in negative game script figure
to lead to another high-carry, low-target day for Dobbins.
As I noted in the cornerback section, CEH has some sneaky upside
if the Chiefs decide Chubb is enough of a threat to play keep-away
from the Browns by feeding the rookie. We saw this strategy early
in the season when Kansas City pounded the Bills into submission
and kept Josh Allen on the sideline - likely doing so because
it viewed Buffalo's offense is the only one that can rival its
own. Aaron Jones is a lot like Kamara - especially this week -
in the sense that both are so efficient with their touches that
they can be started almost regardless of the matchup but will
be asked to keep that up against two of the most unforgiving run
defenses. When medium volume meets great run defense, it's hard
for even the most efficient backs to keep up with the backs primed
for 25-30 touches.
One final thought: I'm not sure if Green Bay saw enough in Week
16 or not, but can you think of a better time for the Packers
to unleash Dillon than in a potential cold-weather game? While
I didn't project him for much here, I may revisit this projection
before the games start on Saturday.
Baltimore has established a deserved reputation as a defensive juggernaut
for years. The defense is still very good, but it is not a must-avoid
either. Primary slot CB Marlon Humphrey was targeted 103 times during
the regular season (second-most in the league) and Marcus Peters
gave up five touchdowns. What it means is there isn't much evidence
to suggest Diggs' 14-game streak with at least six catches should
end this weekend. Hill's projection took a bit of a hit following
Wednesday's news that CB Denzel Ward was activated from the COVID-19
list, but that isn't enough of a reason to bet against arguably
the most dynamic receiver in the league when he is catching passes
from the best quarterback in the league in an offense that has proven
it can do whatever it wants at times. If DFS players want to invest
heavily in one $8000 receiver this week, it should be him. It should
come as no surprise if he scores two or three times.
Perhaps for the first time all season (or at least since his
return from his ankle injury in Week 6), Adams should not be considered
the odds-on favorite to be the top-scoring fantasy receiver of
the week. With that said, he's not an easy fade either. Packers
HC Matt LaFleur coached under Sean McVay with the Rams and 49ers
HC Kyle Shanahan before that. (Brother Mike LaFleur is the 49ers
passing game coordinator.) The latter is particularly notable
since San Francisco beat Los Angeles in both meetings this season
and did so in large part by feeding Deebo Samuel a lot of touches
at or behind the line of scrimmage. Is Adams the same kind of
receiver as Samuel? Not exactly. But Adams is superb after the
catch and so good with his footwork that it would be unrealistic
to expect Jalen Ramsey to shut him down when the two are matched
up against each other on the perimeter. Ramsey will venture into
the slot more than most elite cornerbacks do (114 of his 581 coverage
snaps, per Pro Football Focus), but Adams worked inside on 31.7
of his routes (147 of 464). My point: LaFleur will find ways to
get Adams the ball even if the conventional way doesn't work.
Don't make the mistake of fading Adams in all of your DFS lineups
just because he will get the "Ramsey treatment."
While I won't go so far as to say Landry and Marquise Brown will
be staples in my lineup this week, one or both will probably find
their way into the majority of my lineups at their price point.
If Browns-Chiefs turns into the shootouts many think it will,
Landry should be a near-lock for eight-plus targets. The Ravens'
low passing game volume (and Lamar Jackson's desire to throw over
the middle of the field) makes Brown a risky bet each week, but
their devotion to the run game also means the second-year wideout
typically only has his man to beat when Baltimore does attempt
a pass.
It's probably not a coincidence that Tampa Bay's offense started
taking off about the same time the schedule got easy, but there's
more to it than that. In addition to utilizing more play-action
and throwing shorter passes (catering more to Tom Brady's strengths),
it seems as though the quarterback's connection with Antonio Brown
has only become stronger. Mike Evans' recent history with Marshon Lattimore is not good to say the least, while Rob Gronkowski has
managed an underwhelming three catches on nine targets for 13
yards in the first two meetings against New Orleans. That means
fantasy owners should expect the majority of targets to go in
Godwin or Brown's direction. Kupp is a solid investment in the
same price range as Landry and Brown. It seemed as though he was
the only receiver Jared Goff targeted early on last week, and
he could be in line for a lot of work again if Jaire Alexander
lines up opposite Woods more than half of the time. With that
said, Kupp has yet to practice this week due to a knee injury.
If he can't go, Van Jefferson (and maybe even Josh Reynolds) would
be a worthwhile DFS punt.
I despise narratives, but I'm probably going to get Watkins into
a few lineups this week if only to test the "he only shows
up in Week 1 and the playoffs" logic. It also helps that
Robert Jackson - the corner he was likely to see the most of this
weekend - just landed on IR. With that said, Watkins' status is
uncertain after hurting his calf in Week 16, sitting out Week
17 and not practicing Wednesday. If he can't go, I would likely
fire up Robinson in a few more lineups than usual. A more likely
low-cost option for me will be Gabriel Davis, who is the only
receiver in the $4000 range who I believe has realistic 15-20
point upside. He comes with obvious downside as well, especially
considering John Brown played 25 more snaps last week (57-32).
Both players saw the same number of targets (four), but the rookie
caught all four of his while the veteran got blanked. I would
not expect a repeat of such an occurrence this week.
We don't need to spend a lot of time on Kelce, who just turned in
a historic regular season for a tight end. However, if you're wondering
if he is worth his price tag this week, bear in mind Cleveland was
one of five teams to allow 90 catches and one of six teams to give
up at least 10 TDs to the position. This is where it is important
to discuss the impact of Tyreek Hill, who forces defenses to account
for his speed and causes them to give up easy throws to Kelce underneath.
Even at his price tag, I will be hard-pressed not to stack him with
Mahomes because he does have 25-30 point upside in this matchup.
The Rams are no picnic for tight ends, but it makes sense that
if the No. 1 threat in the passing game (Davante Adams) can be
expected to have a rougher day than usual, then the No. 2 option
(Tonyan) could be asked to do more. Los Angeles started to show
some cracks in its coverage against tight ends down the stretch
as Dan Arnold (two TDs in Week 13), Chris Herndon (48 yards in
Week 15 to spark his strong finish) and Jacob Hollister (a TD
in Week 16) each did some damage. Tonyan is a bigger part of the
offense than any of those players and arguably the best one of
the bunch. Given the trust Aaron Rodgers has shown in Tonyan in
the red zone this year, I like his odds of scoring at least once.
I wish I had better reasons to project Brate as the third-best
tight end of the week other than he was heavily utilized last
week and the lack of involvement (or more work as a blocker) for
Gronkowski, but I don't. If I don't roll with Kelce or Tonyan
in a lineup, my most likely pivot will be Hooper for many of the
same reasons I gave earlier about Jarvis Landry. Knox's recent
involvement in the offense makes him the most likely punt at the
position after Brate.
Key for defense/special teams units: PA - Points allowed TD - Defensive/return touchdowns TO - Total turnovers PA Bonus - Points allowed bonus for DraftKings
Defense / Special
Teams
Team
DK $
PA
Sacks
TD
TO
DK Bonus
DK
New Orleans
$3,300
$20
2
0
2
1
7
LA Rams
$2,600
$23
4
0
1
0
6
Green Bay
$3,900
$20
2
0
1
1
5
Baltimore
$2,800
$34
2
0
1
-1
3
Kansas City
$3,600
$31
2
0
1
-1
3
Buffalo
$2,900
$31
1
0
1
-1
2
Tampa Bay
$3,100
$27
1
0
0
0
1
Cleveland
$2,300
$42
1
0
0
-4
-3
In the majority of my lineups, I don't plan on looking too far outside
of the Packers-Rams for my DST option. Why? Green Bay will be the
team's first game without LT David Bakhtiari, which could easily
lead to a few sacks for the Rams. While Rodgers is a poor bet to
throw an interception, a forced fumble on one of those sacks could
be enough to make an investment in the Rams pay off at one of the
lower prices on the board. Conversely, the Packers face a team in
Los Angeles that is built to play in cold weather but may not be
overly prepared to do so. Add to that the fact the Rams turned the
ball over 25 times this season and there is a case to be made for
Green Bay being the top DST play of the weekend if it can force
L.A. into negative game script. However, I have a hard time justifying
a $3900 price point for a defense I don't expect to get a ton of
sacks or score a return touchdown. As a result, Cleveland is the
only DST I'm reasonably certain I won't use.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
