As I enter my 12th year of writing this postseason column, I hope
I have helped some of you along the way supplement your regular-season
fantasy prize winnings.
The layout of this column will remain mostly unchanged from last
season. While I will continue to play the NFL.com
Playoff Challenge and small-slate DraftKings
Classic tournaments, I have ended my 11-year association with
Fuzzy's Fantasy Football for reasons I may get into at a later
date.
The first part of this week's column will be devoted to those
owners who participate in the Playoff Challenge or any other format
in which it is best or required to keep the players you draft
for the duration of the postseason. The second half of the column
is for owners who play in leagues in which you reset your lineup
each week, such as a salary cap setup like DFS. Regardless of
which format(s) you choose to play in, my goal over the next four
articles will be to help each of you through your decision-making
process as you attempt to boost your bottom line.
NFL.com Playoff Challenge/Multi-Week Leagues
For a complete rundown of how players will score fantasy points
for your team, click on the “Rules & Prizing”
link on the NFL.com entry page. Some of the content immediately
below is included on the “How to Play” page, although
the information I provide below should be more than enough to
follow along easily.
The requirements: one QB, two RBs, two WRs, one TE, one K
and one D/ST. You will earn fantasy points based on their on-field
performance during their game, and if your player's team wins,
you will have the option to carry that player over to the next
round, where he will earn a bonus point modifier to his score
(which will be referred to as 2x, 3x and 4x from here on out).
For example, if you pick Drew Brees in the Wild Card round
and the Saints win, you can carry him over to the Divisional Round,
and earn two times (2x) the points he earns in his divisional
round game. If New Orleans wins again, you can carry Brees into
the Conference Championship round for 3x the points and, if the
Saints make the Super Bowl, you can earn 4x the points. In addition,
a user can select a player/defense in the Wild Card round even
if their team has a bye into the Divisional Round. In this case,
the user would not earn any points for the Wild Card round, but
be eligible to earn 2x points in the Divisional round, since the
player was on the team’s roster for two weekly scoring periods.
Further bonus point modifiers would also apply as long as that
player’s team continues to advance in the NFL Playoffs.
Before we get into the picks, let’s briefly review the
rules and how we may use them to our advantage: 1) passing TDs
are worth four points, so passing yards are valued the same as
DraftKings; 2) all field goals under 50 yards are worth three
points, which means we are more concerned about the volume of
field goals than distance – unless we can find a kicker
who regularly converts from 50-plus (DraftKings does not use kickers);
3) this is a non-PPR format, which obviously favors the big-play
threats (DraftKings is PPR); and 4) team wins are worth five points
in the NFL.com Playoff Challenge, so picking a “winning”
defense is worth almost a touchdown before factoring in the modifiers.
Let's get the No. 1 rule of this game out of the way right now:
if you have a good feeling about which two teams will
meet in the Super Bowl, it is advisable to build your lineup exclusively
with players from those two teams. Most previous playoff
challenge champions' lineups are made up entirely of 4x Super
Bowl participants. (In other words, it is important to project
the Super Bowl entrants first and figure out what players from
those teams to use afterward.) The multipliers are everything
in this contest, so playing the week-to-week matchups are nearly
meaningless. Think about it this way: if I told you that your
regular-season fantasy team's scoring would double in Week 2,
triple in Week 3 and quadruple in Week 4 if you simply left it
the same, would it affect your draft strategy? Of course it would.
The big week your team might post in the first week of this challenge
- in the somewhat unlikely event you played the matchups perfectly
- is going to seem rather insignificant in early February when
every passing touchdown is worth 16 points, every other TD is
worth 24 and the top teams in this competition are scoring 200-300
(or perhaps more) points per week.
As noted earlier, the main challenges are (in order): 1) correctly
predicting the two conference winners and 2) forecasting the best
fantasy players in that hypothetical Super Bowl matchup. This
will be the only Playoff Challenge write-up I do this postseason,
as I have reached the conclusion that any alterations I make to
my lineup in the third and fourth weeks would be in response to
a wrong pick on my part, and my analysis of a 1x or 2x player
isn't going to matter very much. Much like in daily fantasy, the
chalk plays probably aren’t going to win. (Of the hundreds
of thousands of entries NFL.com receives, how many do you think
are going to line up their fantasy squads exclusively with Lamar
Jackson or Patrick Mahomes just because they are the "best"
fantasy quarterbacks?) In other words, be bold whenever
possible! It's a free contest after all, so crashing
and burning - even if it is in front of an audience like what
I'm doing - isn't such a bad thing when you consider the reward
is much greater than the risk involved.
Below you will find 14 playoff teams ranked in order of the (percentage)
odds I believe they have of making the Super Bowl. I'll spend
a bit of time after that attempting to nail the bracket before
talking a little DFS.
1. Green Bay (40%)
2. Kansas City (35%)
3. Buffalo (30%)
4. New Orleans (30%)
5. Tampa Bay (20%)
6. Baltimore (15%)
7. Pittsburgh (10%)
8. Seattle (6%)
9. Indianapolis (6%)
10. LA Rams (2%)
11. Tennessee (2%)
12. Cleveland (2%)
13. Chicago (1%)
14. Washington (1%)
With that out of the way, let's next focus on my week-to-week
playoff projections and then the players I feel are realistic
alternatives for this four-week sprint to the finish:
With that out of the way, let's next focus on my week-to-week
playoff projections and then the players I feel are realistic
alternatives for this four-week sprint to the finish:
AFC - Wildcard: Bills over Colts, Steelers over Browns,
Ravens over Titans NFC - Wildcard: Saints over Bears, Seahawks over Rams,
Buccaneers over Washington
AFC - Divisional: Chiefs over Ravens, Bills over Steelers NFC - Divisional: Packers over Buccaneers, Saints over
Seahawks
AFC - Conference Championship: Bills over Chiefs NFC - Conference Championship: Packers over Saints
Super Bowl: Bills vs. Packers
The rankings below are for those readers in similar leagues that
require you to draft players this week and keep them for the duration
of the postseason. The number inside the parentheses refers to how
many games I expect that player/unit to play.
The chalk plays figure to be in full effect for this competition.
Rodgers and Mahomes will likely see the most action (likely by
far) from fantasy players who understand how important the multipliers
are in this competition, so it behooves us to go contrary right
from the start. Historically speaking, both top seeds don't make
it to the Super Bowl very often, although it has happened four
times since 2013 after occurring only nine times in the first
47 Super Bowls. Rolling with Allen does not come without risk,
however, as I believe Buffalo could easily suffer a first-round
upset. Still, the upside of locking in a quarterback who produces
like Rodgers and Mahomes AND can potentially give us four full
games of production instead of the usual three could be the difference
in finishing near the top or middle of the pack.
Jackson probably belongs in the first group given how he is essentially
a QB2 as a passer and an RB1 as a runner in the same body. Baltimore
could easily exceed expectations and make up for last year's early
exit, but let's consider the Ravens' resume: they finished 4-4
against playoff teams. The four wins came against 7-9 Washington,
No. 7 seed Indianapolis (when the Colts were playing without T.Y. Hilton and believed Jordan Wilkins had earned more work) and No.
6 Cleveland (twice). One of the four losses came against the Titans,
but Tennessee's defense may be worse now than it was in Week 11.
Wilson has perfected the second-half fade in recent years, although
Seattle's offensive approach consistently seems to be the culprit.
The Seahawks' desire to do everything in their power to minimize
their best player in the name of "protecting" him when
he has yet to miss a game in his pro career is admirable but baffling
at the same time. It's hard not to rank Brady any higher given
his track record, but Tampa Bay is the NFC's version of Indianapolis
as far as I'm concerned. Anything from a first-round loss to Super
Bowl run is possible depending on who might (or might not) be
available due. What does that mean? Stud LB Devin White (COVID)
won't play, Mike Evans (knee) appears to be highly questionable
and top CB Carlton Davis (groin) is ailing.
New Orleans has made some surprising early exits in recent years,
but the Saints are arguably the most complete team in the league
at the moment. Brees should get at least two games and is a decent
candidate for four should the Bucs win this week and repeat their
Week 6 domination of the Packers in the projected divisional round
matchup. Pittsburgh (and Roethlisberger, for that matter) has
played about one good half of football since Thanksgiving, so
I'm not crazy about hopping on that bus. Tannehill figures to
be underappreciated for the foreseeable future in fantasy. With
that said, the Titans could easily ride Derrick Henry as long
as possible in an effort to hide their defense. It's also difficult
for a quarterback to light up the fantasy scoreboard consistently
when he is consistently attempting 27 or fewer passes (as Tannehill
did in his last four regular-season games and five of his last
six) unless he also has 100-yard rushing upside like Lamar Jackson.
Rivers heads the list of the best of the rest only because I
believe the Colts have a very good shot at making a decent run.
With that said, picking him in this kind of competition is a needless
gamble because there is no salary cap savings to be realized and
virtually no upside that comes along with selecting a quarterback
with virtually no rushing ability. It's hard to love Mayfield
versus the Steelers, and it's hard to imagine how the Browns beating
Kansas City in the off chance they upset Pittsburgh. Even if all
of the Tier 5 quarterbacks were promised two games, I would be
hard-pressed to move any of them into Tier 3.
If there's one position fantasy owners can sometimes get away
from just relying on what teams will make it to the Super Bowl,
it might be a running back. Jones is the closest thing to a feature
back that any of my three Super Bowl favorites have, and even
he accounted only for just over half of his team's carries and
receptions from running backs. Jones gets the top spot above because
he seemingly has the best chance of any lead back to hit the 4x
multiplier and make it pay off in a big way. If Kamara gets three
games as I have predicted, he should give Jones a run for his
money. With that said, Kamara's uncertain status for the first
round following his positive COVID tests makes him less of a lock
than we could have imagined about a week ago.
I would not hesitate to put Dobbins into Tier 1 if I was certain
the Ravens would make it as far as the conference championship.
Unfortunately, they are far from certain to last more than one
game and highly unlikely to beat the Chiefs should they face off
in the divisional round. Edwards-Helaire might be the savviest
pick on the board. The majority of the players in this competition
figure to be down on him based on what they felt was a somewhat
disappointing rookie season, but it seems highly likely the Chiefs
will ask their first-round pick to begin shouldering more of the
load now in much the same way they featured Damien Williams down
the stretch last season. If both top seeds (Kansas City and Green
Bay) make the Super Bowl, a 4x combination of Jones and CEH would
be more of a contrarian paring at running back than one might
expect. Seattle does not seem primed for a Super Bowl run, not
do the potential matchups (Rams and then most likely the Saints)
look all that great for Carson. The Bucs are probably better bets
to play four games than the Seahawks, but Tampa Bay's coaching
staff takes just enough meaningful work away from RoJo to make
him a poor bet in this competition.
The idea that Taylor and Henry could do more in one game than
either of Buffalo running backs could do in four is unsettling,
to say the least. With that said, the primary reason why Taylor
and Henry are placed higher than Moss and Singletary above is
that both play on teams capable of pulling off a first-round upset.
It's also an indictment on just how pass-heavy Buffalo has become
down the stretch. Especially in a non-PPR challenge such as this
one, Moss' lack of consistent usage and Singletary's low touchdown
upside makes both fringe options despite the possibility they
could each play three or four games.
Tier 3 gives us the last of the decent fringe options at running
back. The combination of three potential games and maybe a game
with a limited Kamara makes Murray slightly appealing. He becomes
much more appealing if Kamara's conditioning suffers as a result
of his bout with COVID. Edwards has done nothing but deliver with
the opportunities he's been given this season and would warrant
a spot in Tier 2 behind Henry if Baltimore had a reasonable chance
to make it to the conference championship. Chubb, Montgomery and
Akers are all Tier 2-caliber running backs stuck in a bad situation
as it relates to this challenge. The Browns into the weekend extremely
shorthanded due to COVID issues, the Bears have little shot of
upsetting the Saints and Akers is still not 100 percent playing
for a likely one-and-done team that is hoping its backup quarterback
can keep the ship afloat.
Especially in this non-PPR format, it could be argued Adams is
in a class all by himself. He's arguably the most valuable player
in this competition. Diggs takes second place by virtue of my
four-game projection for him. He doesn't boast near the touchdown
upside of Adams or Hill, and it should be noted three of his eight
TDs this year came in Week 16. For those owners who believe Kansas
City and Green Bay are destined to meet in the Super Bowl, pairing
Hill with Adams is obviously a formidable (but chalky) combination.
Very few players receive what we may consider highly favorable
matchups during the NFL Playoffs, but projected home games against
the Bears and Seahawks make Thomas a reasonable contrarian alternative
to all the owners who figure to ride two of the top three in this
competition. John Brown's four-game projection pushes him way
up the board, as does the fact that Cole Beasley is week-to-week
with a knee injury. Diggs popped up on the injury report with
an oblique injury to begin this week, so if that limits him in
any way moving forward, Brown becomes an even more interesting
option. Projected matchups against Washington and Green Bay aren't
great for Godwin's ceiling, but Mike Evans' Week 17 knee injury
may lead to more targets. He should have the best matchup of any
Bucs' receiver in both games. Injuries and drops kept Johnson
from truly realizing his fantasy potential in 2020, but he's still
an 88-catch receiver who was targeted at least 10 times in 10
of 15 contests this season. Cleveland stud CB Denzel Ward rarely
traveled with receivers this year, so he's not a huge threat to
Johnson even if he returns from the COVID list this week.
Tier 3 boasts a plethora of great redraft options that carry
some degree of uncertainty into the postseason. Metcalf has emerged
as Russell Wilson's favorite target this year, but he's certain
to face off with Jalen Ramsey much of the time this weekend. Never
mind the fact the Seattle offense is hardly clicking on all cylinders
anyway. Antonio Brown's relatively high ranking is due primarily
to the health of Evans, who I believe will be a decoy for at least
one week. Pittsburgh HC Mike Tomlin suggested Claypool's reps
were being scaled back near the end of the season in an effort
to keep him from hitting the rookie wall. Unsurprisingly, Claypool's
production has picked up in recent weeks as his snaps and routes
have returned to early-season levels.
Smith-Schuster has effectively replaced the Steelers' running
game. His average depth of target in 2020 is an absurdly low 5.5
yards (8.8 in 2018 and 9.7 in 2019). He also appears to be Ben
Roethlisberger's most trusted target near the end zone. Sanders
was easily the most productive receiver for New Orleans as Michael
Thomas finished the season on IR. Thomas' expected return figures
to have a dramatic effect on his target share, but he should live
up to his ranking if the Saints can play three games. It took
more than half of the season, but Lamar Jackson rediscovered his
fondness for Marquise Brown. He was the overall WR14 over the
last five games of the season and gets a first-round matchup against
a weak Tennessee defense. A sure sign Seattle's offense isn't
right is the inability of the Seahawks to get Metcalf and Lockett
going in the same game. With a quarterback like Russell Wilson
pulling the trigger, there's no excuse why a receiver as refined
as Lockett has been so inconsistent this year. It's playoff time,
so it's about time once again for Watkins to remind us of what
his career could have been. Davis' relatively high ranking is
due to the uncertainty of Beasley, whose injury status is up in
the air. If Beasley can't return anytime soon and/or Diggs is
limited in any way, Davis could quickly emerge as a household
name.
Consider for a minute Darren Waller just had a 100-catch season
and scored 100 more fantasy points in PPR leagues than all but
one tight end. Now consider Kelce somehow still made Waller's
276.6 points in 16 games look pedestrian compared to his 312.6
points in 15 contests. Even if Kelce only plays two games as I
have predicted, he is still easily the best option on the board.
Tonyan finished 24th among tight ends but third in overall fantasy
scoring. How did he do it? Efficiency (caught 52 of 59 targets)
and making his opportunities count (one TD for every 4.7 receptions).
He's unlikely to keep pace with Kelce should the Packers and Chiefs
both make it to the Super Bowl, but he has a decent shot of doing
so if his regular-season TD rate carries over and Green Bay allows
him to hit the 4x multiplier AND Kelce makes an early exit. Andrews
is probably the best bet of the Tier 2 tight ends to push Kelce
in terms of fantasy scoring average this postseason, but we've
already discussed how unlikely Baltimore is to make an extended
run. Gronkowski is basically an older and less efficient version
of Tonyan at this point in an offense that spreads the wealth
more than Green Bay. Gronk only registered more than two catches
in a game twice over the second half of the season, meaning he
is extremely touchdown-dependent.
Among the Tier 3 tight ends, Knox earns his high ranking only
because he has realistic four-game upside and was a regular part
of the offense down the stretch. Cook gets the edge over Ebron
because he is clearly a favorite target of his quarterback near
the end zone and has a better chance at hanging around longer
in the postseason. Ebron hit much more often than he missed once
Pittsburgh fully committed to its short passing attack, but he
is also arguably no higher than the fourth-best receiving option
on his team. If Thomas had a realistic chance at playing two or
more games, he would move into Tier 2. Washington has to figure
out its future at quarterback, but Thomas has proven he belongs.
He will be one of the few tight ends available in drafts this
summer that has a realistic chance at providing elite production
that won't cost fantasy owners a pick in the top three rounds.
Below you will find my position-by-position projections. Please
note I have included DraftKings' dollar value for each player,
followed by their projected point total. Because I went into some
detail above, I won't spend a great deal of time explaining each
projection here - only some of the more notable ones. Each position
is sorted by my DraftKings' projected point total.
Key for quarterbacks, running backs, receivers
and tight ends: P Yds - Passing Yards P TD - Passing Touchdowns INT - Interceptions Ru Yds - Rushing Yards Ru TD - Rushing Touchdowns Rec Yds - Receiving Yards Rec TD - Receiving Touchdowns Rec - Receptions
DraftKings did a fine job of pricing quarterbacks this week. I would
argue there are only four options that have a decent shot of accounting
for more than two touchdowns, and all of them are priced at $6,600
or more. About the only prayer Tennessee has of keeping Jackson
from being a top-two option is putting together four or five time-consuming
drives and reduce the number of possessions Baltimore has. We know
it's possible because we saw the Titans do it to the Ravens last
year in the playoffs, and Tennessee's offense is geared toward producing
those kinds of games. We also know the Titans have surrendered at
least 40 points in each of their last two contests, so they may
not be able to pull off another unlikely upset. If Baltimore has
any kind of success early stopping Derrick Henry, Jackson could
have a field day.
The Colts' defense has proven itself this season, but it would
be ridiculous to bet against Allen at this point. Had he not been
pulled early from Buffalo's Week 17 rout of the Dolphins, he could
be entering the playoffs with at least 35 fantasy points in three
straight games. We need to monitor injury reports throughout the
rest of the week regarding Stefon Diggs' status, but he sounds
like a go for now. Tannehill appears to be the only mid-priced
option that can offer fantasy owners some cap relief, but fantasy
titles and big DFS prize payouts rarely come as a result of betting
against the Ravens' defense.
People often refer to the phrase "volume is king" at the
running back position, so it should come as no surprise that the
two running backs that saw the heaviest volume over the final five
weeks of the regular season are near the top of the table above.
Neither Henry nor Montgomery require much explanation, but I'll
be willing to bet Murray will have relatively low ownership in the
likely event Kamara is cleared Saturday. Assuming that happens,
he will not have practiced with the team since his six-TD explosion
in Week 16. Conditioning could very well be an issue, and one would
have to think his role in the offense would be scaled back simply
because he won't have a chance to take any reps with the team between
now and Sunday's game.
If Indianapolis can rediscover the defense that was usually stout
through the first 10 weeks of the season this weekend, Taylor
has a shot to pay off in a big way. However, upside is a big factor
to consider in DFS, and there may be no running back that has
a better combination of matchup, talent and upside than Dobbins.
Baltimore running backs totaled 47 catches during the regular
season and the Ravens haven't reached 30 pass attempts in any
game since Week 10, so Dobbins most likely won't get bailed out
with a lot of work in garbage time should Tennessee take early
control of the game and create a script similar to the one that
played out last postseason between the teams.
McKissic and Hines are two of the better values on the board considering
the likely game script in their respective contests. It could
be argued McKissic might serve as Washington's lead back this
weekend if Tampa Bay's run defense once again lives up to its
reputation. Terry McLaurin also isn't anywhere close to 100 percent,
so a number of swing passes and/or check-downs to McKissic could
be the order of the day with the Football Team likely chasing
points in the second half. Hines is a bit riskier because Indianapolis
can hang with Buffalo's offense - at least for a while - if Philip
Rivers doesn't go off the rails and the Colts' defense holds up.
If one or both of those things fall apart, Hines might have 10-catch
upside.
Claypool worked over the Browns in each of the first two meetings
with two different quarterbacks. There's not much reason to expect
that to change now. Even if Denzel Ward plays, he doesn't travel
with receivers. And even if he did, he would follow Diontae Johnson
- the Pittsburgh receiver I expect to draw the most attention. Claypool
has perhaps the best combination of scoring upside and value on
the board. Diggs expects to play despite dealing with an oblique
issue. Assuming he gets a full complement of snaps, Diggs has an
incredibly high floor; he has at least seven catches in eight straight
games.
New Orleans boasts a formidable secondary, but it should be noted
seven receivers have scored at least 10 fantasy points against
the Saints over the last three weeks. While the jury is still
out on whether or not Trubisky is starting to turn a corner or
just feasted on a string of favorable matchups down the stretch,
Robinson has been about as consistent as they come. There are
not too many receivers I believe have two-touchdown upside this
weekend, but Marquise Brown is one of them. Marvin Jones, Davante
Adams and Brandin Cooks have each tallied at least 10 catches,
112 yards and a touchdown against the Titans over the last three
weeks. My only hesitation with the second-year wideout is that
Baltimore might be able to run almost at will, and the Ravens
are one of the few teams that don't feel the need to pass just
to change things up. With that said, Brown has 30-point upside
if things break right for him.
I gave Claypool a touchdown that could just as easily go to Johnson.
If that happens, he could easily be the WR1 this weekend. The
rookie will likely be in more of my DFS lineups because he is
significantly cheaper, but I think I will have at least one -
if not both - in just about every lineup. Evans may be the biggest
boom-bust option in this round. I tend to believe he will serve
more as a decoy who may see some usage in the red zone this week
while Godwin and Antonio Brown do the heavy lifting and run the
most routes. With that said, the matchup isn't a particularly
strong one for any of them.
DFS players in search of some cap relief may want to take a look
at Reynolds. Rolling with a fringe receiver tied to a backup quarterback
is not my idea of fun, but his production versus the Seahawks
this season is hard to ignore compared to his production against
everyone else. In two games against Seattle, Reynolds averaged
seven catches on 10 targets and 79.5 yards receiving. He topped
four catches only one other time and did not exceed 60 yards in
his other 14 outings.
The reports of Washington using a quarterback rotation this week
shouldn't fill DFS players with optimism regarding Thomas, but he's
been too good for too long despite catching passes from Alex Smith,
Dwayne Haskins and Taylor Heinicke in recent weeks. He's also the
only healthy respectable pass-catcher Washington has besides J.D. McKissic. Although Andrews seems less likely to succumb to game
script than Marquise Brown, I'm not crazy about the idea of spending
$5200 at tight end unless I'm confident I'm getting at least 12-15
points. With that said, Andrews and Gronkowski may be the only tight
ends that have a reasonable chance at scoring two touchdowns.
There are only four other options I'll consider after Thomas
and Anders: Hooper, Cook, Gronkowski and Ebron. If Pittsburgh
grabs a two-score lead on Cleveland as I believe it will, Hooper
should have volume on his side. My biggest concern for him is
HC Kevin Stefanski being out for this game and the offense collapsing
as a whole as a result. Even though Chicago surrendered 12 touchdowns
to tight ends this year, Cook is still too reliant on finding
the end zone for my tastes. I'm more confident in Ebron's volume
than Cook's, but I opted to not go crazy with my projection for
the Steelers' offense and give Big Ben three passing TDs for a
second straight contest after he failed to post more than two
in five straight despite some favorable matchups. Gronkowski at
$4000 seems like a smart pivot for those owners who don't want
to pay up for Thomas or Andrews. The obvious downside is he hasn't
seen near the volume they have of late. He will need a touchdown
to be worth the price of admission.
Key for defense/special teams units: PA - Points allowed TD - Defensive/return touchdowns TO - Total turnovers PA Bonus - Points allowed bonus for DraftKings
Defense / Special
Teams
Team
DK $
PA
Sacks
TD
TO
DK Bonus
DK
LA Rams
$2,900
$20
5
0
2
1.0
10
Tampa Bay
$3,400
$17
4
0
2
1.0
9
Pittsburgh
$3,600
$14
4
0
2
1.0
9
New Orleans
$3,800
$17
3
0
2
1.0
8
Seattle
$2,700
$16
2
0
1
1.0
5
Buffalo
$3,500
$27
1
0
2
0.0
5
Baltimore
$3,300
$27
2
0
1
0.0
4
Washington
$2,400
$31
3
0
1
-1.0
4
Cleveland
$2,500
$24
1
0
1
-1.0
2
Chicago
$2,800
$27
1
0
0
0.0
1
Indianapolis
$2,300
$30
2
0
0
-1.0
1
Tennessee
$2,200
$34
1
0
0
-1.0
0
It's uncertain how the Browns will react without their head coach
and play-caller on the sideline this week, but it hard to spin it
in a positive way for Cleveland. DFS players can probably justify
paying up for the Steelers as a result, although the Browns have
done a good job of avoiding turnovers for the most part. Otherwise,
the only other AFC team I might go with is Buffalo, and that's only
if I want to bet on Philip Rivers throwing two or more interceptions
for the first time since Week 5.
The NFC side offers a bit more upside. The Rams compiled 11 sacks
in two games versus the Seahawks, so there is some potential for
a mistake turning into a touchdown in that matchup. Bucs DC Todd
Bowles brings the blitz often enough to force Washington into
some mistakes, although it will be critical for Tampa Bay to jump
ahead early and get the Football Team out of its conservative
offensive attack to reach its ceiling. The Bears did a fine job
minimizing their turnovers and sacks allowed throughout December,
but they also didn't play an opponent with a run defense like
the Saints. New Orleans has the most expensive defense/special
teams on the board for a reason (most likely due to DK's belief
Mitchell Trubisky will fall apart), but $3800 is a bit too much
to pay for a defense that had forced three turnovers in its previous
four games before collecting five interceptions in Week 17.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
