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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Top 150 Big Board, Half-Point PPR: Version 1.0
Preseason Matchup Analysis
8/12/18

Half-Point PPR | PPR | Non-PPR

Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to evaluate and analyze well because 11 men are being asked to work in harmony roughly 60 times per game, while 11 other men are being asked to create chaos. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. In football, a player always needs help from at least one teammate to accomplish his goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what it makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards in this day and age - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to account for quantifiably.

Regardless, it doesn't mean we shouldn't try. Over the last 1 1/2 weeks, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500 players and assigned between five and seven grades for each player based on the areas I believe are critical for fantasy success at their respective positions. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make 7,500 "decisions". Grading each of those players in at least five categories pushes the decision-making number well over 10,000.

The preceding paragraph is not meant to be a brag of any kind. Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. I like to think that even if readers believe my logic is flawed for whatever reason, they can count on the fact that much thought has been put into that opinion.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and our job as analysts is identifying when stocks may be poised for an increase or ready to tank. While last year's results help owners/analyst set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. This is the approach I have taken for more than 10 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not. I'm pretty certain I owe a great deal of my success to it. Based on the feedback I receive from readers throughout the year, it would seem many of them have enjoyed similar success. At any rate …

I am still fine-tuning my updated Success Score Index (SSI), which involves meticulously grading and assigning certain weights to several attributes that I feel are critical to fantasy success at that position. Having enjoyed the success I did with it last year and not needing to reinvent the wheel this year, I feel comfortable enough using it to rank the players on the first set of Big Boards (unlike last year). It is the number that allows me to compare apples to oranges across the positions.

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: This week, I will release my first Big Boards for The Fantasy Championship (TFC) and FFPC Big Boards. In the final set of Big Boards over the following two weeks, I will rank 200 players and present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the Half-Point PPR format:

 Half Point PPR Big Board - Top 150
Rank Pos Player Tm Age SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 RB Todd Gurley LAR 24 1193.3
2 RB Ezekiel Elliott DAL 23 1159.8
3 RB Leonard Fournette JAC 23 1159.1
4 RB Melvin Gordon LAC 25 1143.3
5 RB David Johnson ARI 26 1141.8
6 WR Antonio Brown PIT 30 1134.3
7 RB Saquon Barkley NYG 21 1133.1
8 WR Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 25 1124.6
9 RB Kareem Hunt KC 23 1114.1
10 WR DeAndre Hopkins HOU 26 1110.1
11 RB Le'Veon Bell PIT 26 1097.0
12 RB Dalvin Cook MIN 23 1094.9
13 WR Michael Thomas NO 25 1047.1
14 WR Davante Adams GB 25 1034.6
15 WR Julio Jones ATL 29 1030.4
16 WR Keenan Allen LAC 26 1027.1
17 WR A.J. Green CIN 30 1024.3
18 RB Alvin Kamara NO 23 1012.5
19 WR Mike Evans TB 24 1011.3
20 RB Joe Mixon CIN 22 1008.1
21 RB Jordan Howard CHI 23 1002.8
22 WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI 34 998.2
23 RB Christian McCaffrey CAR 22 996.2
24 RB Alex Collins BAL 23 993.4
25 RB Devonta Freeman ATL 26 990.3
26 RB Jerick McKinnon SF 26 979.7
27 WR T.Y. Hilton IND 28 974.4
28 TE Travis Kelce KC 28 972.9
29 TE Rob Gronkowski NE 29 968.3
30 RB LeSean McCoy BUF 30 967.6
31 WR Adam Thielen MIN 27 955.5
32 WR Demaryius Thomas DEN 30 954.6
33 WR Stefon Diggs MIN 24 952.7
34 RB Derrick Henry TEN 24 949.9
35 WR Doug Baldwin SEA 29 948.8
36 WR Allen Robinson CHI 24 937.5
37 WR Amari Cooper OAK 24 934.1
38 WR Jarvis Landry CLE 25 916.0
39 RB Isaiah Crowell NYJ 25 904.5
40 TE Zach Ertz PHI 27 901.0
41 RB Jay Ajayi PHI 25 892.3
42 WR Emmanuel Sanders DEN 31 891.3
43 RB Lamar Miller HOU 27 879.5
44 RB Kenyan Drake MIA 24 874.6
45 WR Tyreek Hill KC 24 874.2
46 WR Sammy Watkins KC 25 871.9
47 WR Golden Tate DET 30 871.3
48 RB Dion Lewis TEN 27 866.6
49 WR JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 21 862.5
50 QB Aaron Rodgers GB 34 861.9
51 WR Marvin Jones DET 28 859.2
52 TE Delanie Walker TEN 33 858.7
53 WR Michael Crabtree BAL 30 858.3
54 TE Jimmy Graham GB 31 853.2
55 WR Alshon Jeffery PHI 28 851.7
56 WR Jamison Crowder WAS 25 848.9
57 TE Kyle Rudolph MIN 28 847.7
58 RB Rex Burkhead NE 28 845.6
59 WR Corey Davis TEN 23 845.0
60 RB Tevin Coleman ATL 25 840.4
61 RB Ronald Jones TB 21 839.7
62 WR Chris Hogan NE 29 838.1
63 WR Robby Anderson NYJ 25 835.8
64 RB Mark Ingram NO 28 834.0
65 TE Greg Olsen CAR 33 831.4
66 RB Tarik Cohen CHI 23 831.0
67 WR Julian Edelman NE 32 830.8
68 WR DeVante Parker MIA 25 826.9
69 QB Carson Wentz PHI 25 823.1
70 RB Sony Michel NE 23 820.6
71 QB Deshaun Watson HOU 22 819.6
72 RB Marshawn Lynch OAK 32 818.5
73 QB Tom Brady NE 41 815.9
74 WR Cooper Kupp LAR 25 812.8
75 WR Robert Woods LAR 26 812.2
76 QB Drew Brees NO 39 812.1
77 RB Chris Carson SEA 23 811.8
78 TE Trey Burton CHI 26 810.6
79 TE Evan Engram NYG 23 810.3
80 WR Josh Gordon CLE 27 810.3
81 QB Kirk Cousins MIN 29 806.0
82 RB Royce Freeman DEN 22 805.9
83 RB Kerryon Johnson DET 21 805.6
84 RB Chris Thompson WAS 27 804.8
85 WR Brandin Cooks LAR 24 804.5
86 TE Jack Doyle IND 28 801.8
87 QB Cam Newton CAR 29 799.1
88 WR Kenny Stills MIA 26 795.3
89 RB Ty Montgomery GB 25 794.9
90 WR Jordy Nelson OAK 33 794.8
91 WR Sterling Shepard NYG 25 792.2
92 RB Duke Johnson CLE 24 786.9
93 QB Russell Wilson SEA 29 786.8
94 RB Marlon Mack IND 22 786.2
95 QB Andrew Luck IND 28 785.9
96 TE Mike Gesicki MIA 22 784.8
97 WR Devin Funchess CAR 24 784.8
98 RB Matt Breida SF 23 784.7
99 WR Marquise Goodwin SF 27 782.3
100 TE Jordan Reed WAS 28 782.1
101 RB Nick Chubb CLE 22 780.3
102 QB Philip Rivers LAC 36 778.4
103 WR Cameron Meredith NO 25 775.6
104 RB Carlos Hyde CLE 27 773.9
105 WR Nelson Agholor PHI 25 771.2
106 TE George Kittle SF 24 770.8
107 QB Marcus Mariota TEN 24 770.7
108 WR Will Fuller HOU 24 769.5
109 TE Ricky Seals-Jones ARI 23 768.3
110 TE O.J. Howard TB 23 767.7
111 QB Matthew Stafford DET 30 767.2
112 TE David Njoku CLE 22 765.9
113 RB Devontae Booker DEN 26 765.0
114 QB Patrick Mahomes KC 22 764.7
115 RB Rashaad Penny SEA 22 764.0
116 QB Jared Goff LAR 23 760.2
117 WR Rishard Matthews TEN 28 753.9
118 QB Ben Roethlisberger PIT 36 750.9
119 RB Aaron Jones GB 23 747.9
120 WR Randall Cobb GB 27 743.7
121 RB Frank Gore MIA 35 743.6
122 TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins JAC 25 742.3
123 RB Peyton Barber TB 24 742.2
124 WR Kelvin Benjamin BUF 27 739.5
125 WR Pierre Garcon SF 32 738.4
126 TE Tyler Eifert CIN 27 736.7
127 TE Cameron Brate TB 27 736.7
128 QB Jimmy Garoppolo SF 26 736.0
129 QB Matt Ryan ATL 33 734.1
130 RB Jamaal Williams GB 23 734.0
131 QB Blake Bortles JAC 26 732.9
132 RB Nyheim Hines IND 21 730.6
133 WR D.J. Moore CAR 21 725.4
134 TE Eric Ebron IND 25 724.7
135 WR Chris Godwin TB 22 724.5
136 WR Josh Doctson WAS 25 723.4
137 WR Mike Williams LAC 23 721.8
138 WR Kenny Golladay DET 28 719.8
139 RB Doug Martin OAK 29 718.7
140 QB Dak Prescott DAL 25 718.5
141 QB Andy Dalton CIN 30 717.2
142 QB Alex Smith WAS 34 716.1
143 RB Theo Riddick DET 27 714.8
144 WR Anthony Miller CHI 23 714.3
145 RB Bilal Powell NYJ 29 712.8
146 WR Tyrell Williams LAC 26 712.3
147 WR Tyler Lockett SEA 25 711.5
148 RB Giovani Bernard CIN 26 706.9
149 QB Derek Carr OAK 27 702.3
150 TE Charles Clay BUF 29 701.8


PPR Big Board | Non-PPR Big Board





Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.