It’s been a volatile season for McKenzie, but if Week 12
is any indication, we need to be paying closer attention to the
Bills’ slot wide receiver. McKenzie saw a season-high 10
targets against the Lions on Thanksgiving, including a huge jump
in snap share from his previous contest. The Bills will likely
need to spread the Patriots defense out if they’re going
to find success against them and that’s exactly the type
of setup that favors McKenzie. He isn’t an obvious starter
in any format, but he’s a sneaky player who’s available
on a ton of waiver wires and is a legitimate option as long as
he’s playing this much in one of the league’s best
offenses.
Getting excited about a below-average pass-catching running back
in one of the league’s least run-heavy offenses is pretty
difficult, so it’s not surprising that the name Devin Singletary
still returns a collective “meh” from the fantasy
football world. Still, the Bills’ top running back remains
a fairly high-floor option, particularly in non-PPR formats. Even
in PPR, though, the fact that he’s seen at least 13 carries
in five of his past six contests means that he rarely completely
busts. Of course, his ceiling isn’t particularly high, either,
and he’s playing against a very good Patriots defense, so
don’t get overly excited about Singletary who is a low-end
RB2 in this matchup.
Many fantasy managers had delusions of grandeur about Gabe Davis
heading into 2022, but through 12 weeks, he now sits outside of
WR2 range and there’s not a lot of reason to think that
things will get better going forward. Not only is his quarterback
fighting through injuries, but now we’ve seen Isaiah McKenzie
begin to be utilized. This increased target competition, in addition
to the fact that Davis was already far behind Stefon Diggs in
the pecking order, just makes it difficult for him to ever really
give fantasy managers much of a floor. But to make matters worse,
Davis isn’t even delivering much of a ceiling. He’s
been held to under 12 points in four of his past five games and
his one big game during this stretch came against the Vikings
in Week 10 in a contest that went to overtime. He saw just five
targets against the Lions this past week and he’s been over
seven targets just once all season. Yes, Davis can occasionally
give you the “three catches for 171 yards and two touchdowns”
games like he did in Week 5 against Pittsburgh, but he might be
fantasy football’s biggest boom/bust player this season
and a matchup against New England makes it much more likely that
we’ll see the “bust” side of that coin here
in Week 13.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Rhamondre Stevenson has definitely earned the title of a “no-brainer”
this season, but fantasy managers could be a little concerned
after looking at his seven carries in Week 12. Fret not, though,
as Stevenson still delivered for fantasy purposes with a monster
nine-catch game in that contest. He’s now caught 33 passes
over his past five games, making him one of the safest options
among all running backs throughout the league as he is utterly
game-script independent. To make things even better for him, Damien
Harris (thigh) is back on the injury report and could miss this
week’s game, thus catapulting Stevenson back into being
a borderline top-five fantasy back.
Jakobi Meyers saw just four targets in Week 12, which tied for
the second-fewest amount he’s seen in a game this season.
In fact, he’s been targeted at least six times in all but
three games he’s played this season, nearly doubling DeVante
Parker, who is the next-closest wide receiver on the roster. The
problem is that the Patriots' offense just is not particularly
productive to begin with, so his opportunities are rarely downfield
or in the end zone. Add in the fact that Meyers is dealing with
a shoulder injury that has him listed as questionable this week
and you’ve got a truly difficult fantasy situation to analyze.
Meyers will probably have to be started in most deep leagues,
but managers who have him in shallow leagues probably have players
who have a higher ceiling while also not risking things with an
injured player.
The tight end position hasn’t felt this bad in many years
so it’s easy to look at a 15-point box score from a tight
end and have some excitement. That’s what Patriots tight
end Hunter Henry provided in Week 12. With a deeper look into
things, though, you’ll see that Henry is still only playing
about 70 percent of the Patriots’ offensive snaps in an
offense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in points
per game. Yes, he scored a touchdown this past week, but it was
on just five total targets, which is actually the most he’s
had since Week 6. Don’t chase the touchdown against Buffalo’s
excellent defense, as they’ve given up the eighth-fewest
fantasy points per game to the tight end position this season.
Rookie wide receiver Treylon Burks had a tough start to his career
as he struggled to get things going before suffering a multi-week
injury. In his three games since returning to the lineup, Burks
has established himself as the clear-cut WR1 in this Tennessee
offense. Certainly, the Titans remain an extremely run-heavy offense
so being their WR1 doesn’t guarantee any sort of results,
but Burks has seen six or more targets in each game since he’s
been back. He scored a very fluky touchdown on a fumble recovery
this past week which helped elevate his fantasy points so don’t
expect that to happen again, but there’s plenty to like
about Burks against this Philadelphia defense that just got done
giving up 110 yards and a touchdown to fellow rookie Christian
Watson. There isn’t much to like in this offense aside from
Derrick Henry, but Burks is talented enough to be a real difference-maker
as a WR3/Flex in fantasy.
An offense that runs the ball as much as the Titans do with one
individual player doesn’t typically allow many other players
to be relevant for fantasy purposes and that’s what we’ve
seen in Tennessee for most of Ryan Tannehill’s time there.
Sure, Tannehill is a fine mid-to-low-end QB2 in SuperFlex leagues,
but he’s providing absolutely no rushing ceiling anymore
and he hasn’t thrown more than two touchdown passes in any
game this season. The Eagles have given up the second-fewest fantasy
points to opposing quarterbacks so far this season, so don’t
fall into the trap of, “what if the Eagles get ahead and
the Titans have to throw?” That doesn’t work for Tennessee.
They will run the ball and if that doesn’t work, they will
run it some more. Stay away from anyone in this passing game other
than Treylon Burks for now.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Miles Sanders had an absolutely gigantic day against the Packers
in Week 12, rushing for 143 yards and a pair of touchdowns. His
performance was a strong reminder of why we should almost always
be paying attention to more than just total fantasy points each
week. Sanders had been held to less than six points in each of
his previous two games, but his usage remained strong. He’s
now carried the ball at least 12 times in all but one game this
season. He’s still mostly a non-factor in the passing game,
but Sanders is almost operating in a Derrick Henry-like role,
albeit with less physical talent, as a 1990s-style between-the-tackles
back who has legit 30-touch upside depending on the game script.
The Eagles are one of the league’s best teams and players
who touch the ball 20 times in offenses like this can easily be
league winners. The Titans are a top-five defense against opposing
running backs this season, so don’t expect a repeat performance
of what he did against the Packers, but Sanders remains a strong
RB2 who has weekly high-end RB1 upside if the game script breaks
well for him.
In an offense with as consolidated of a target share as the one
in Philadelphia, it’s been a bit surprising to see A.J.
Brown and DeVonta Smith struggle to produce high-quality fantasy
weeks for the better part of the past month or so. Brown finally
got into the end zone this past week, breaking his two-game scoreless
streak, but he’s been held to fewer than 16 points in each
of his past four games. Smith, meanwhile, has been seeing a high
level of opportunities as of late with at least eight targets
in four of his past five games, but he hasn’t even reached
14 points in any of those contests. It’d be understandable
for fantasy managers to deploy a “wait and see” approach
with these two receivers, but don’t forget that both of
these guys have shown the ability to put up week-winning performances
in the right situations. That’s what we’re banking
on here in Week 13 against a Titans defense that has given up
the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this
season. This secondary is struggling mightily and it would be
surprising if neither Brown nor Smith is able to exploit it.
He’s scored a touchdown in back-to-back games along with
reaching 80 yards receiving in the game before that, but Quez
Watkins is not someone who fantasy managers will want to be banking
on here in Week 13. Watkins hasn’t exceeded five targets
in any game this season, so you’re entirely banking on a
touchdown from him if you want to have any sort of fantasy production.
Having Watkins as a viable third option is great for Jalen Hurts,
but we need to be avoiding him in our fantasy lineups.
Despite checking out of last Sunday night’s loss to Philly
with a rib injury, which was on top of an already broken thumb,
Rodgers looks to be on track to start in Chicago. Before departing,
Rodgers and the Packers offense was finding its groove against
a highly rated Eagles defense. Between that upward trend, Watson’s
emergence, the Bears’ porous defense, and Rodgers’
history in Chicago, the 39-year-old could be dusted off and placed
in your starting lineup as a low-end QB1.
Dillon played just 21 snaps in Week 12, his third-lowest total
of 2022, but he turned his 11 touches into 88 yards and a touchdown.
That it was the bruising back’s first score since the opener
is an indictment of just how poorly Green Bay’s offense
has executed in the red zone this year. The Jets racked up 158
yards on the ground against Chicago last week with third- and
fourth-stringers, so the outlook is rosy for Dillon in terms of
the matchup. As has been said, before, Rodgers likes to throw,
so you can never bank on the Packers committing to the run. Play
Dillon as a flex to hedge your bets.
The emergence of Watson as a force in the passing game has led
to a major decline in production from Lazard. Over the past three
weeks, during which Watson has scored a half-dozen times, Lazard
has 10 catches, 126 yards, and no TDs -- that after scoring in
five of his first seven games this year. He’s a strong blocker,
so he continues to lead the receivers in snaps, but he no longer
appears to be the apple of Rodgers’ eye. Still, you could
pencil Lazard in as a flex if you’re in need.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
With Darnell Mooney (ankle) placed on IR and done for the season,
Kmet might serve as the No. 1 option in Chicago down the stretch.
He was the most targeted player in Week 12, and he has emerged
as a force in the red zone after a very slow start with five TDs
in his last five games. Given the state of the Bears’ wide receivers,
Kmet has a chance to enter no-brainer territory. With questions
at quarterback for this Sunday, however, let’s just call him a
nice midrange TE1.
I envision one of two scenarios here: a) Fields plays and the
Bears run the ball even more often than the Eagles did on Monday
night, or b) Trevor Siemian makes a second straight start and
relies on the running game and short passes to the backs and tight
ends. Either way, Claypool is best left on the bench until his
involvement offensively ticks up.
As the adage goes, progress isn’t always a straight line.
On that front, I present the case of Trevor Lawrence, whose rookie
season was ruined by Urban Meyer, and whose sophomore campaign
has been marked by fits and starts. Things appear to be trending
up recently, however, as the former No. 1 overall pick hasn’t
thrown an INT since October, and he’s coming off his best
game as a pro: 29-for-37, 321 yards, and 3 TDs in a come-from-behind
win against a tough Ravens team. He’ll look to build on
that versus the NFL’s 29th-ranked pass D (259.9 yards per
game), so make sure he’s in your lineup as a solid QB1.
Jones has quietly emerged as a quality volume option for Lawrence,
being targeted 24 times over the past two games and turning that
into 19 catches for 213 yards. He hasn’t been a force in
the red zone, scoring just once among his 58 receptions, but that
level of involvement generates opportunity each week. Given that,
Jones makes a lot of sense as a low-end WR3 in Motown.
Fade: N/A
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Detroit seems to be happy with the three-back rotation they trotted
out the past two weeks with Williams posting 62 snaps, Swift getting
45, and Justin Jackson 43. Despite an increase in snaps, Swift
continues to log 10 or fewer touches, having not eclipsed that
mark since Week 1. His modest two-game scoring streak also came
to an end after having an apparent Thanksgiving TD overturned
on replay. There’s always the chance that Swift will break something,
giving him upside value as a flex, but he hasn’t gone for more
than 50 yards in a game since Week 2, so the path is narrow.
Chark returned from the injured list last Thursday and was on
the receiving end of one of Jared Goff’s two TD passes. He finished
with just 16 yards on two catches, though, and saw fewer looks
than Kalif Raymond. Josh Reynolds also returned in that game but
was limited to eight snaps. With another week-plus to heal, Reynolds
could eat into Chark’s workload. Bottom line: outside of St. Brown,
nobody involved with the Lions’ passing attack is worth playing.
Chubb has grown into a full-grown stud. He’s averaging 18 carries
per game over the last five, and that stretch includes two 100-yard
games, a 90-yard effort, and five total touchdowns. This week,
he faces a Texans team that is giving up an NFL-high 25.6 fantasy
points per game to RB’s this season. He’s a top tier RB1 play
against a defense that will now also have to account for Deshaun
Watson at QB.
If you have him, you’re itching to play him. You didn’t keep
him on your bench all this time to not play him now that he’s
active and ready to go. Plus, he comes back against his old team.
It all points to a storybook return. But the truth is Watson hasn’t
played football at NFL game speed in a really long time. This
could go boom or bust, but it feels more like a boom.
Update: David
Njoku is Out. Harrison Bryant is expected to start.
Njoku has gotten a steady dose of targets all season, and he’s
made some spectacular grabs. But he has less than 50 receiving
yards on 10 targets over the last two weeks, and he’s dealing
with his second knee injury in a month. Even if he plays, look
for Harrison Bryant to steal touches at some point.
No Brainers: None
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Pierce is coming off two tough games (15 carries, 16 yds), and
his touches are down because this team continues to fall behind
early. If the Texans can pound the ball with Pierce, though, they
can limit that scenario and take advantage of a Cleveland run
defense that is giving up over 24.0 fantasy points per game to
RB’s.
Cooks is supposed to be the top WR in this offense but he’s scored
1 touchdown the entire season and has yet post a 100-yard game.
He hasn’t accepted those reins, but neither has anyone else. He’s
not a viable fantasy option based on production, but another week
for QB Kyle Allen could see some chemistry building between receiver
and quarterback.
Allen had a solid outing in Week 12, but this team isn’t
going to score enough for him to be a viable fantasy option, especially
with no prime targets in the passing game.
Even when Zach Wilson was under center, the rookie receiver showed
an ability to produce, topping 90 yards in two of his previous
three games leading into Week 12 and the switch to Mike White.
Wilson caught five passes for 95 yards and a pair of TDs -- his
first since Week 2 -- against the Bears, cementing his status
as the top option in the passing game ahead of the likes of Elijah
Moore and Corey Davis. Minnesota ranks dead last in pass defense,
allowing 276.1 yards per game on the season, so there’s every
reason to plug Wilson into your lineup as a WR2.
White stepped in last Sunday and immediately elevated the offense,
passing for 315 yards and 3 TDs in a 31-10 romp over Chicago.
As noted, the Vikings are 32nd against the pass on the year, and
they just gave up 382 yards to Mac Jones on Thanksgiving. So why
isn’t White a favorite? Two reasons: 1) his strong play in Week
12 came against a Bears defense that hasn’t stopped anyone of
late, and 2) the last time White had a big game in 2021, his next
full start finished with 0 TDs and 4 INTs in a blowout loss. You
can make a case for White as a low-end QB1, but there’s some risk
involved.
Carter (ankle) bowed out with an ankle injury in Week 12, and
his status for this week’s matchup with the Vikings is TBD. Even
if he suits up, however, Carter will likely share snaps with Zonovan
Knight and potentially Ty Johnson or James Robinson, who was a
healthy scratch last Sunday. With so much uncertainty surrounding
the status of New York’s backfield, Carter shouldn’t be viewed
as more than a risky flex. If he’s inactive, however, you should
consider plugging Knight in as an RB3.
Thielen is coming off arguably his best game of 2022, catching
nine passes for 61 yards and a touchdown. The veteran has been
steady in terms of targets, being thrown to at least seven times
in nine of 11 games this season, but the production has never
risen above middling -- he has just one effort of more than 70
yards this year. His high usage gives him a shot at WR3 value,
but the Jets feature a top-10 pass defense (197.5 yards per game)
that provides Thielen with meaningful downside.
Beaten from pillar to post by the Cowboys in Week 11, Cousins
came back four days later to pass for 299 yards and 3 TDs against
a talented Patriots defense. Things don’t get much easier
this Sunday, though, as the Jets boast a nasty defensive front
(their 34 sacks rank seventh in the NFL) and an opportunistic
secondary -- the Jets are one of just two teams with more interceptions
(12) than touchdown passes allowed (10). It’s not that Cousins
can’t be deployed this week, but if you have a decent alternative
you’d do well to consider it.
Freiermuth had three catches on four targets for 39 yards last
week against the Colts. It was his worst day in nearly two months.
But despite what seems like an effort to open things up a bit
more for QB Kenny Pickett, I expect Freiermuth to remain a staple
in the young QB’s progressions, no matter the matchup. He’s a
low-end TE1.
Pickens, as talented a rookie as there is right now, is putting
together an impressive highlight reel with some spectacular grabs.
But he is still dropping some easy ones. There has been talk of
him moving into the WR1 role on this team, and the numbers back
that up. Nearly a third of his catches for the season have come
in the last three games, and he’s averaging nearly 20 yards per
catch over the last two weeks. He gets a great matchup against
the Falcons this week, but it looked like the Steelers were still
trying to get the ball to Diontae Johnson last week. If Pickens
gets targets, he’s ready to pop.
Fade: Any Steelers’ RB
Jaylen Warren
(hamstring) was out a week ago but is expected to play. Najee
Harris (abdominal) left last week’s game and sat out practice
on Thursday. Benny
Snell (knee) came in and filled in nicely, but Anthony
McFarland Jr. was stealing touches all game. It appears that
Warren will be the lead back but it seems a given that this will
be some kind of committee setup that fantasy owners will want
to stay away from. If you want to take a shot against the Falcons
run defense, then Warren is your best bet.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
On the surface, some will look and see that Patterson split carries
with Tyler Allgeier in Week 12. However, it’s worth noting that
with TE Kyle Pitts out of the lineup, Patterson drew a season-high
five targets against Washington. A former WR playing RB, I’m thinking
that it will be Patterson who sees a bump in regular targets in
Pitts’ long-term absence, and not WR Drake London. Look for more
dual threat value from Patterson, and more scoring opportunities
in the coming weeks.
Allgeier’s 11 carries against Washington were his most in
a game since Week 8 when Cordarrelle Patterson was still sidelined.
If my hunch is right, and Patterson is now moving to more of an
H-Back/Receiver role with TE Kyle Pitts on IR, that could mean
an uptick in touches and production in the ground game for Allgeier.
This is still a team that wants to run the ball, so that’s
a good place to be. He’s a solid flex option this week until
we see how the new lineup shakes out.
The Falcons’ 1st-round pick has a just three catches on
seven targets for 31 yards over the last two games and is averaging
less than 8.0 yards per catch over the last five weeks! While
some thought he’d see more opportunity with Kyle Pitts out
indefinitely, all he’s seen is more coverage rolled to his
side. There’s also a good chance he’s hit the rookie
wall right now on a team that doesn’t score much.
What began as a backfield tandem of Melvin Gordon and Javonte
Williams is now basically just Murray, who had 13 of the team’s
15 RB carries in Week 12 -- he also played 49 snaps to six for
Marlon Mack. Murray has been reasonably effective in six games
since signing with the Broncos, averaging 60.5 total yards per
game and scoring three TDs. The Ravens are a stout run defense,
allowing just 82.0 yards per game on the ground (second), but
with Denver’s passing game an unmitigated disaster there could
be a lot of touches for Murray, who is a strong RB3.
After missing two games with an ankle injury, Jeudy is likely
to return in Week 13. It probably doesn’t much matter. With Russell
Wilson stuck in a season-long rut, the Broncos rank last in the
NFL in scoring at a paltry 14.3 points per game. Before getting
hurt, Jeudy had topped 50 yards in five straight outings, though
he managed only one touchdown during that time. His return might
cut into Sutton’s targets a bit, but it also wouldn’t be surprising
to see them keep Jeudy on a snap count and not turn him loose
for a full workload. At best, Jeudy could be viewed as a flex.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Edwards returned from a two-game absence to pace the team’s backs
with 16 carries, 52 yards, and a touchdown, relegating Kenyan
Drake and Justice Hill to afterthoughts. He had a critical fumble,
however, so it’ll be interesting to see if Edwards continues to
operate as the clear focal point of the running game or not. Prior
to last week, Denver had been a tough group defensively as well,
so they have the talent and scheme to limit Baltimore’s ground
game. Deploy Edwards as a low-end RB3 or flex, and any risk should
be mitigated.
Duvernay is a stand in for all of Baltimore’s receivers (read:
Demarcus Robinson, DeSean Jackson, etc.). Ever since Rashod Bateman
was lost to injury, the receiver corps has struggled outside of
a couple encouraging efforts from Robinson. Last Sunday was just
the latest example as, even in a quiet week from Andrews, the
Ravens were led in receiving yardage by backup TE Josh Oliver.
It seems impossible that an NFL team can consistently not produce
a single playable wideout in a given week, but that’s where we
are with Baltimore. Stay away from all of them.
He’s had two down weeks in a row, but Terry McLaurin’s outlook
continues to look much stronger with Taylor Heinecke behind center
than it did with Carson Wentz. McLaurin has now seen at least
six targets in every one of Heinecke’s starts - we just need the
offense as a whole to give him some more opportunities to get
into the end zone. The Giants' defense has been very good against
opposing wide receivers this season, but they’ve struggled against
the top options on opposing teams, especially as of late. CeeDee
Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins, both Tyler Lockett and
DK Metcalf, and Christian Kirk have all gone over 15 fantasy points
against this defense over their past five games, so that trend
should give fantasy managers some confidence in starting McLaurin
who has clearly reestablished himself as the top dog in the Washington
passing game.
It looked like Antonio Gibson (foot) was going to run away with
the Washington backfield as we left Week 11, but things got a
bit more complicated this past week when Robinson re-took the
snap lead in Washington’s win over Atlanta. A nine-carry day with
only three receptions against the Falcons should definitely give
fantasy managers a bit of pause heading into this tough matchup
against the Giants. Still, the truth is that we should have known
that a game against a team like Atlanta was going to be a grind-fest,
and that’s much more catered to a back like Robinson than it is
Gibson. Assuming that the Commanders will need to be more big
play-oriented with their offense against a team like New York,
and potentially utilize their passing game more often, this contest
looks a lot more like a “Gibson game” than what we saw this past
week. We could still get burned, but banking on the player who’s
been the top back for the majority of the team’s recent games
seems like a good option.
There’s no question that we saw the very best of Robinson’s
young NFL career this past week. The rookie tailback saw a milestone
as he earned his first 100-yard rushing performance while also
adding a career-high 20 receiving yards and his first career receiving
touchdown. This could very easily be looked at as a passing of
the torch moment as Robinson did look objectively better than
Gibson for probably the first time all season, but this is still
very much a split backfield and, despite his touchdown this past
week, Robinson has mostly been a non-factor in the passing game.
He’s a risky start this week on the road against the Giants.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Giants’ wide receiver Darius Slayton is currently listed
on the injury report with an illness, so we’ll need to keep
an eye on him as we head into this weekend’s games. If he
does play, though, Slayton needs to be on fantasy radars as he
has now produced at least 11 fantasy points in four of his past
five games. This has corresponded with multiple injuries to other
wide receivers in the Giants' offense as the team has been left
with very few proven, viable targets in their passing game. Slayton
looked like he was being phased out earlier this season, but he’s
now the clear WR1 in this offense. It’s not a great passing
game, but this type of consistent production should be overlooked,
especially against a Washington defense that barely ranks outside
of being a bottom-10 defense against opposing wide receivers in
weekly fantasy points conceded.
Don’t be scared off by a mediocre performance against a good
Dallas defense on Thanksgiving. Daniel Jones is no superstar and
he very well may not be the future in New York, but he hasn’t
been terrible for fantasy purposes. The Commanders have also struggled
against the mobile quarterbacks they’ve faced this season. They
allowed Jalen Hurts to score over 55 total fantasy points against
them in his two games, while also allowing Justin Fields to rush
for 88 yards against them and Marcus Mariota to finish with 49
yards on the ground just this past week. Jones isn’t a must-start
by any means, but he’s a nice fill-in option if needed.
Richie James has produced back-to-back games with double-digit
PPR fantasy points, but his usage is still extremely minimal as
he’s seen just nine total targets in those two games. His
touchdowns in back-to-back weeks are more likely to be fluke than
they are the beginning of some new trend of him becoming a decent
starting option in seasonal formats. Pay attention to what happens
with him, but don’t bother with him for now.
Waddle has taken a backseat to Tyreek Hill this season but he’s
still delivering for fantasy owners on a consistent basis. He’s
likely to pass 1000 yards on the season this week and has already
matched his TD total from last year (6). At 17.2 yards per catch,
Miami’s No.2 receiver is a big play waiting to happen. The
49ers are middle of the pack against the position but have given
up five 100-yard receiving games. Deploy Waddle as you typically
would as an easy WR2.
Revenge game for both Miami running backs who just recently were
carrying the football for the 49ers. Mostert (knee) missed last
week’s game and has been limited all week in practice. He’s
played second fiddle to Wilson recently when both have been healthy,
so this doesn’t seem like a spot for Mostert to see increased
usage. Wilson saved his fantasy day last week with a trip to the
endzone but only amassed 39 rushing yards and spent some time
in the locker room with a calf issue. He’s not on the injury
report this week and should be in-line for a standard workload
against his former team. Given the negative matchup, Wilson is
a Flex option in Week 13.
The Dolphins have concentrated their passing offense to their
two best options and unfortunately Gesicki isn’t one of
them. Even at a terrible fantasy position, Gesicki isn’t
registering, sitting at TE29 in fantasy points per game. While
he has scored four times, he has just 24 catches on the season
(T-24th) and fresh off a goose egg last week. Until Miami starts
running more plays for their tight end, Gesicki is off limits.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
McCaffrey exploded for his best fantasy game of the season back
in Week 8 against the
Rams posting a 18-94-1, 8-55-1 line and tossing a TD pass for
good measure. Since then, he’s finished as the RB11, RB12 and
last week the RB38 when he suffered an injury scare with his knee.
He got back to practice Thursday and appears to be fine and should
be called upon for 20 touches with Elijah Mitchell now on the
shelf for at least six weeks. His usage in the passing game has
been excellent since joining the 49ers, with at least six targets
in every full game he’s played. Sure, we’ll probably see some
Tyrion Davis-Price and maybe even some Jordan Mason, but expect
McCaffrey to be the dominant lead back on one of the more entertaining
games of the slate.
Miami’s given up the fifth most fantasy points to quarterbacks
but a big reason for the Dolphins woes against the position is
due to the 297 rushing yards and two TDs they gave up to Lamar
Jackson (119-1) and Justin Fields (178-1). Rushing certainly isn’t
a part of Jimmy G’s game, so this matchup isn’t as great as it
might first appear on paper. Garoppolo does have a full complement
of playmakers at every skill position including Brandon Aiyuk
who’s worked himself into the WR2 conversation every week.
With the 49ers a bit thin at the running back position, we may
see Deebo get a few more carries this week. He’s averaging 3 carries
over his last three games but 5 to 7 is in the range of outcomes
depending on how much work Kyle Shanahan wants to give rookie
Tyrion Davis-Price and/or Jordan Mason. Mason is more of a special
teams player so it wouldn’t be a shock if Deebo soaks up some
of Elijah Mitchell’s touches. Pay attention to Deebo’s injury
status this weekend as he missed practice Thursday with a quad
injury.
I wasn’t on board with Geno as a fantasy asset to start the season
and have been waiting for the tide to turn… except it hasn’t.
The Seattle QB is now 9th in fantasy points per game and has an
impressive 72.8 completion percentage. He now has five straight
games with two passing TDs and this week takes on a Rams team
playing out the string of a lost season that will be missing their
defensive player, Aaron Donald, due to a sprained ankle.
Tyler Lockett (16) and DK Metcalf (24) are top 24 in PPR points
per game and are the clear top two options in the Seattle passing
game accounting for 45% of the team’s receptions. Lockett
has scored a touchdown in four-straight games while Metcalf saw
15 targets in last week’s overtime loss to the Raiders.
If Walker isn’t scoring any touchdowns this week, we know
who will be.
Both Seattle tight ends are seeing a decent snap rate (60%-plus)
but neither are seeing enough volume to make you feel comfortable
putting them into your lineup. Fant has 1 touchdown on the season
and has posted exactly 34 yards each of the last two weeks. Dissly
hasn’t scored since Week 4 and has a high-water mark of
45 yards (Wk7). There are better tight end options available.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Williams got a healthy 70% snap share against the Chiefs last
week and with Cam Akers (illness) missing practice time this week,
Kyren is the only viable fantasy option to consider on this team.
He’s shown enough receiving chops the last three weeks (8 targets,
7 catches, 63 yds) that even if the Rams fall behind early, he
can be useful in the passing game. He’s a Flex if you’re desperate.
Update: John
Wolford is expected to start at QB. Bryce Perkins may play as
well.
The Rams are in a state of disrepair. They’ve lost their
starting quarterback, their top two receivers and never established
a running game. They still have to play the remaining games on
the schedule and there’s likely to be some useful performances
on occasion, but trying to dig for any fantasy relevant pieces
of this offense is more trouble than it’s worth. Perkins
has some rushing ability which theoretically gives him some QB2
appeal but he lacks any kind of consistent playmakers at receiver
or tight end which quickly puts a cap on his upside. Higbee was
bothered by a knee injury last week and failed to see a target
while playing just 59% of the snaps. It’s best to steer
clear of this bunch and take your fantasy chances elsewhere.
Herbert is coming off his best fantasy game of the season that
included 38 rushing yards – a sign that he’s over
his early season rib injury. The last time these two teams met
(Week 1) Herbert finished with a 279-3-0 line. He’s thrown
five touchdowns the last two weeks finishing as the QB3 and QB10
respectively. Part of the reason for his recent success has been
the return of Keenan Allen who played 89% of the snaps last week
and seems to be back on track after his hamstring injury. The
Raiders have given up the 12th most fantasy points to wide receivers
and the 3rd most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Palmer is shaping up to be a Flex consideration this week given
the positive game environment and a healthy Chargers team total
of 26 points. He’s two weeks removed from his spiked week against
the Chiefs (8-106-2) and should remain in the starting lineup
assuming Mike Williams doesn’t return from his sprained ankle.
He’s played the most snaps of any Chargers receiver the last two
weeks but can sometimes get lost in the shuffle with both Austin
Ekeler and Keenan soaking up targets. Despite being a neutral
matchup for fantasy receivers, the Raiders have yet to give a
100-yard receiving game to the position.
Fade: N/A
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
We know this Raiders offense runs through two guys: Josh Jacobs
and Davante Adams. The good thing for quarterback Derek Carr is
he can throw to both, but despite the Raiders having the 8th highest
pass rate in the league, Carr is a middling fantasy QB ranking
as the QB17 in fantasy points per game. A couple games with zero
TDs is the culprit. However, Carr is on a bit of a hot streak
lately, throwing at least two TDs in each of his last four games,
averaging 277 yards during that span and he posted a 295-2-3 line
against this defense in Week 1. We’re expecting some points
to be scored in this game (T 50.5) so Carr has some sneaky low-end
QB1 upside.
Volume is the name of the game for the Raiders backup tight end.
While Darren Waller (hamstring) has been on the shelf, Moreau
gets a full-time role, playing nearly 100% of the snaps most weeks.
Occasionally, he’ll be asked to stay in a block more than we like
(Week 11) but more often than not, Moreau is a viable low-end
TE1 play, running routes on a healthy amount of Vegas’ pass plays.
His high-water mark in yardage (44 yds) is uninspiring, but he
has found the endzone twice in the last three weeks.
This is a probably a risky placement as despite pacing the Chiefs
in rushing over the past three weeks (53 carries, 258 yards, 1
TD), Pacheco hasn’t played that many more snaps than Jerick
McKinnon in that time -- the rookie logged 100 snaps to McKinnon’s
84. Two other factors that could work against Pacheco: 1) Andy
Reid tends to lean on his proven players in big games, and 2)
McKinnon is the pass-catching back, and the Chiefs may choose
to focus their offense through the air against Cincinnati. Despite
that, I like what Pacheco has been doing since becoming the primary
ball carrier, and if KC does lean on the run, he could have a
big day. Consider him a decent RB2.
Smith-Schuster was on the rise in late October/early November,
catching 22 passes for 325 yards and 2 TDs in a three-game stretch.
He was concussed in Week 10, however, and had a 3-38-0 line last
Sunday is his return after missing a game. It’s not that Smith-Schuster
isn’t capable of having a big game against the Bengals, but that
receiver room is awfully full now with Skyy Moore being worked
in alongside Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Justin Watson (and maybe
a returning Kadarius Toney). Smith-Schuster is still the top fantasy
option, but he’d be a risky play as anything beyond a WR3.
Fade: N/A
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Update: Joe
Mixon remains in the concussion protocol as of Sunday morning.
As ever, the Bengals are a team full of no-brainers, assuming
health. To that end, the expectation is that both Mixon and Chase
will return in Week 13 after missing one and four games, respectively.
Even with a full complement of weapons at Burrow’s disposal,
however, Hurst could still chip in at low-end TE1 value. Over
his last five games, the tight end has caught 23 of 29 targeted
balls for 210 yards. The TDs have been missing, having last scored
in Week 5, but given how badly Chase torched KC last season they
figure to focus on slowing him up, which could give Hurst the
chance to shine.
Boyd’s production with Chase out of action was disappointing.
In four games as the de facto No. 2 receiver, the veteran managed
just 12 receptions, 140 yards, and a TD. Now he’ll slide
back into a supplemental role. In two meetings with Kansas City
a season ago, Boyd posted a combined 8-55-1 line. You could roll
the dice on him as a flex, but the ceiling seems awfully low,
making a bench slot more appropriate.
It’s tough to look at Pittman’s 2022 season and not be a bit
disappointed given where we were drafting him, but the Colts’
top pass catcher is still a solid high-end WR2 this season while
occasionally delivering some solid WR1 numbers. It’s also worth
noting that two of Pittman’s worst fantasy games this season came
in games quarterbacked by Sam Ehlinger. Matt Ryan is not a high-level
quarterback anymore, but he’s been pretty good for Pittman specifically,
who he has targeted at least nine times in six separate games
this season. That type of target volume is almost completely unattainable
for anything other than mega-stud wide receivers, so take advantage
of the fact that your league-mates are probably still undervaluing
Pittman. Yes, he has a tough matchup this week against a very
good Dallas defense, but he’ll likely still see plenty of volume
and that should be enough to make him a solid WR2.
Parris Campbell is the second option in a fairly low-scoring
offense, which is a big part of what makes him a volatile option
for fantasy purposes. He’s produced 18 or more fantasy points
in three games this season, but he’s been held to below 12 points
in every other contest, including this past week when he produced
just two catches for 14 yards against Pittsburgh, who have been
one of the league’s worst secondaries. Campbell now faces the
Cowboys, who have been quite good against opposing wide receivers
in 2022. Sure, they’ve had their struggles against the likes of
Cooper Kupp, A.J. Brown, Mike Evans, Ja’Marr Chase, and Christian
Watson, but aside from Watson, every one of those players has
established himself as an elite talent at the position. Campbell
is not at that level.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Ezekiel Elliott was still out-snapped by Tony Pollard in Week
12 but is trending in the right direction after nearly doubling
his snap share total from Week 11. There’s no question that Pollard
has been the more productive player between the two, but what
ultimately matters is what the Cowboys coaches want to do. They’ve
made it clear that this is, at worst, a split backfield with Elliott
being the primary goal-line runner. He’s scored six touchdowns
over his past four contests and Zeke had some real juice in his
legs on Thanksgiving which should make fantasy managers confident
in starting him against a Colts defense that just got done giving
up 127 yards and two touchdowns on the ground to the Steelers
trio of Najee Harris, Benny Snell, and Anthony McFarland.
We don’t have to like what the Cowboys are doing with their
backfield, but we have to be willing to accept it. It was a fun
few-week run with Tony Pollard being an elite fantasy option,
but as long as Ezekiel Elliott is healthy, it doesn’t seem
like Pollard is going to be able to truly take over this backfield.
Of course, that doesn’t mean that Pollard can’t still
be a quality fantasy asset, as he’s now touched the ball
at least 13 times in five straight games, including this past
week’s win over the Giants when he out-touched Elliott by
a margin of 20 to 17. The problem with Pollard is that while he’s
been by far the more explosive back between the two, he’s
also clearly behind Elliott when it comes to goal-line touches.
Nevertheless, he’s scored double-digit points in seven of
his 11 starts, so he’s a very high-floor option with a decently
high ceiling.
It feels pretty dumb to put Dalton Schultz back on this list
after having him here this past week when he finished as the TE1
for the week, but I maintain that this was a good procedural decision
even if the outcome was bad. Schultz finished tied for 14th among
TEs in targets for the week and 15th in yards. Among the top 10
tight ends for Week 12, none had fewer targets than Schultz’s
four - it just so happens that he was able to get into the end
zone twice - something that none of the others were able to make
happen.
The tight end position is pretty bad overall, so it’s understandable
if you just don’t have another decent option, but don’t chase
the two-touchdown week. Schultz is playing a lot, but the Cowboys
are allowing depth tight ends Peyton Hendershot and Jake Ferguson
to play significant snaps alongside him, particularly in the red
zone, so there’s no guarantee that red zone tight end targets
will even go to Schultz. The Colts have only conceded one touchdown
to an opposing tight end over their past eight games, so playing
the “touchdown or bust” game against them is a pretty low-upside
decision.
Godwin has double-digit targets in five of his last six games,
has piled up at least 70 receiving yards in four of those contests,
including a 100-yard game, and has scored in each of the last
two games. As QB Tom Brady struggles with consistency, Godwin
has been his go-to guy over the middle in the short to intermediate
areas of the field. Godwin is a solid WR2, especially in PPR formats.
White has averaged 4.7 yards per carry over the last two games,
rushing 22 times for 105 yards against Seattle, and 14 times for
64 yards against Cleveland. He also showed his receiving chops
in Week 12 with 9 catches for 45 yards. Leonard Fournette is supposed
to return to the lineup this week, but White is the more athletic,
more explosive back and should be starting. He could be a 100
total yards a game guy if given the chance, but we’ll have to
see how he slots in with Fournette this week.
Fade: Bucs’ TE’s
Cameron Brate hasn’t amassed 25 receiving yards in a game
since Wek 4, and Cade Otten has gone over 50 just once in the
last month and put up a zero in Cleveland. The TE position continues
to be an afterthought in this offense, and with OT Tristan Wirfs
out, I would expect added blocking duties for them in the gameplan
this week.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Even with the return to the lineup of Jarvis Landry, historically
a target hog, and the frustratingly average play of QB Andy Dalton,
Olave continues to be the go-to guy in this passing attack. There
is talk that Jameis Winston could return to the starting QB role
this week, which should open up the offense a bit and give Olave
a boost in production. He's a WR2 this week no matter who’s at
QB.
Johnson was on a run of three straight games with a TD before
the 49ers shut him out last week. But Tampa is giving up nearly
9.0 fantasy points per game to TE’s this season, and the
Cover Two shell they play is susceptible to guys like Johnson
who can challenge on the seam and split the safeties. I expect
him to start another run this week.
Even when Dalton plays “well” and doesn’t turn
the ball over, he still brings little in the way of fantasy value.
He’s the check down king, and it sounds like he may be headed
to the bench for real in New Orleans.
