Although it hasn’t quite mirrored the meteoric rise of Rashee
Rice last season, Worthy has seen his usage steadily increase.
Over his first 10 games, the rookie was targeted four times or
less six times. In the last five games, Worthy has seen 8.2 targets
per game on average with back-to-back weeks with 11 each. The
Chiefs also continue to sprinkle him in via the running game.
While they haven’t unlocked his downfield capabilities, KC is
prioritizing getting the ball in his hands quickly and letting
him use his speed to make things happen. The numbers are still
mostly middling -- he is averaging 62 yards per game in his last
six with two touchdowns -- but the potential is there. The Steelers
have dealt with injuries in the secondary, so we’ll see if they
can track Worthy on Christmas Day. The rookie has the potential
to deliver WR3 (or even WR2) value.
After suffering a nasty looking ankle sprain against the Browns
in Week 15, there were questions whether Mahomes (ankle) would
even suit up six days later for a Saturday game with the Texans.
He did. Not only that, he even looked spry, turning five runs
into 33 yards and a touchdown. The passing numbers were mediocre
(260 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs), which has been a season-long issue.
Outside of a nice stretch in November when he passed for three
TDs three times in four games, Mahomes has just four multi-score
efforts in his other 11 outings. The Steelers own the No. 20 pass
defense, allowing 220.7 yards per game, making Mahomes a fringe
QB1 candidate.
It seemed like the Chiefs were ratcheting up Pacheco to resume
his bell cow role when he went from eight touches in his return
to 16 the following week. In two games since, however, he’s
had 14 and 11 touches, respectively, and with the Chiefs playing
for the third time in 11 days it seems unlikely that he’d
be leaned on this Wednesday. Hunt has trended the opposite way.
He had 15 total touches in Pacheco’s first two games back
and has followed that with 29 the last two. Hunt has been the
more effective producer in those games, outgaining Pacheco 128
yards to 72 and scoring the lone TD between the two. Expect another
timeshare situation in Week 17, devaluing both players to no more
than middling RB3s or flex options.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Facing the NFL’s top-ranked run defense, the Steelers wound up
using Warren, the usual change-of-pace back, much more than Harris,
typically the bruising, early down option. Warren ended the divisional
showdown in Baltimore with 92 yards on 17 touches while Harris
managed 42 yards on nine carries. This week, they square off against
the Chiefs, which are third in the league against the run (91.4
yards per game). Do we see a similar approach from Pittsburgh
on Christmas Day? Or do they go back to a traditional split with
Harris getting more of the work? That’s the conundrum. As with
the Chiefs, this is a situation where neither back can be considered
more than a RB3/flex.
In three games without Pickens, Wilson has averaged 168 yards
and 1.67 TDs. It’s possible Pickens returns, but even in
six games with the mercurial wideout available, Wilson only really
had two big outings: 195 yards and 3 TDs versus Washington, and
414 yards and 3 TDs against the Bengals. Granted, the passing
game is the most effective way to attack Kansas City, which has
injury problems of their own in the secondary, but Wilson’s
track record makes relying on him a very dicey move. Unless your
alternatives are exceptionally poor, you should stay away from
the veteran QB.
Zay Flowers’ fantasy production hasn’t exactly been
up to par in recent weeks, clearing 15.0 PPR points just once
since Week 10. However, his underlying metrics still look good.
Flowers has accounted for at least 28 percent of the team’s
targets three times in the last month. With Lamar Jackson in the
midst of the best season of his career as a passer, a player who
can draw upwards of 30 percent of the targets each week is well
worth a spot in fantasy lineups.
After being labeled as a massive bust through the first month
of the season, Mark Andrews has found his footing down the stretch.
He’s the TE6 across the full season and comes in averaging
13.6 PPR points per game since Week 10.
The biggest concern with Andrews throughout the season has been
his route participation. Even with his recent success, Andrews
has cracked an 80-percent route participation just once in the
last six weeks while typically running 50-60 percent of the routes.
Given his limited usage, Andrews’ fantasy value is largely
driven by his usage in the red zone. This doesn’t lead to
the most consistent production, but Andrews has seen an endzone
target in four straight weeks and the Ravens have the league’s
No. 3 scoring offense. Andrews is a threat to score every week,
making him a clear TE1 option.
If Zay Flowers is unable to suit up, Rashod Bateman will serve
as the Ravens’ de facto WR1, making him a very appealing
Flex option. Even if Flowers takes the field, Bateman is a viable
boom-bust Flex candidate.
Bateman has carved out a role as the Ravens’ downfield
playmaker. In his last three full games, Bateman has seen six
deep targets (targets 20-plus yards downfield). He has turned
these looks into four receptions, 123 yards, and four touchdowns.
This downfield connection with Jackson can lead to Bateman having
an explosive day in fantasy any given week.
Fade: N/A
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
C.J. Stroud is in the midst of a serious sophomore slump. You
can try to pin his struggles on a variety of factors, but the
reality of the situation is that he’s not producing in fantasy.
It has now been 12 weeks since Stroud finished as a top-10 quarterback.
It’s hard to lean on a quarterback who is in a slump like
this, but Stroud could break out of that slump this week. The
Ravens are a top-5 matchup for quarterbacks and have the league’s
31st-ranked pass defense. Baltimore has allowed over 330 passing
yards five times this season and if the Stroud-Collins connection
could get going, Stroud could clear 330 yards for the third time
this season.
An injury to Tank Dell elevates the outlook for Dalton Schultz.
As previously mentioned, you can throw all over this Baltimore
secondary and Schultz can easily be a piece of Houston’s success
through the air.
After Dell went down early in the third quarter, Schultz drew
a team-high four targets across the rest of the game. He finished
with a season-high eight targets and 15.5 PPR points on the day.
Schultz has proven to be a legitimate target earner throughout
his career and he’ll have the opportunity to step up with
the Texans devoid of weapons.
A situation like what we’re seeing in the Houston WR room
serves as a reminder that wide receivers are not the same as running
backs when it comes to replaceable fantasy production.
When a starting running back goes down with an injury, the backup
can oftentimes be inserted and deliver relatively similar numbers
in fantasy. This is not the same at wide receiver. Targets must
be earned and it requires talent to get open on routes and draw
targets. John Metchie and Xavier Hutchinson have never proven
to be target earners and Robert Woods is now 32 years old. Fade
this trio in crucial Week 17 matchups.
With Kenneth Walker (ankle) sustaining an ankle injury this past
Sunday, Charbonnet should be in line to handle the bulk of the
running back duties Thursday night, though Kenny McIntosh has
seen an uptick in usage recently. In four games missed by Walker
this season, the second-year back has averaged 109 yards and scored
six times. That’s RB1 type production. The risk here is that Charbonnet
is banged up, dealing with an oblique injury in the lead up to
Week 16 and now being listed as limited in practice with an elbow
issue. The Bears rank 27th in run defense on the year (134.1 yards/game),
and they’ve looked even worse since Matt Eberflus was fired following
their Thanksgiving loss. Assuming he plays, Charbonnet has serious
potential.
Knocked from the Week 15 game due to a knee injury, Smith answered
the bell against the Vikings, passing for 314 yards, 3 TDs, and
2 INTs in a hard-fought loss. He’ll need to turn around
on that balky knee and play on short rest versus a Bears team
that has scarcely been competitive in recent weeks. There’s
been a serious lapse in pass defense, and Chicago now ranks 23rd
in that department, giving up 225.2 yards per game through the
air. Smith has the weapons to take advantage of the Bears, but
this feels like a game where Plan A would be to lean on Charbonnet/McIntosh
and have the veteran quarterback pick his spots. Despite delivering
in Week 16, remember that Smith has thrown one or zero TD passes
in 12 of 15 games. While there’s a little upside, the veteran
is difficult to trust.
Fade: N/A
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Over the six games since the Bears replaced Shane Waldron with
Thomas Brown, Moore has racked up 43 receptions with a minimum
of six in each outing. Clearly, finding ways to get the ball in
his hands is central to the weekly game plan. The big plays have
been largely absent, however -- he's averaged less than 10 yards
per catch four times in those six games, including the last three,
and hasn't found the end zone since Week 12. The Seahawks feature
a decent secondary, but with Chicago routinely falling way behind
they’ve been seeing plenty of room underneath, which is
where Moore does his work. You can trust him in your lineup as
a solid WR3.
As noted above, the Bears continue to dig themselves a deep hole
early in games; in their last four, they’ve been collectively
outscored 80-14 in the first half. It speaks to ongoing struggles
on both sides of the ball. The side effect has actually been good
for fantasy owners, though, as it has allowed the Bears to rack
up consolation yardage and touchdowns. It’s the reason Williams
has become a semi-permanent resident of the “on the fence”
designation. His numbers are solid, throwing for 334 yards and
2 TDs versus the Lions last Sunday, but the key to that success
has largely been defensive indifference. That’s a tough
thing to rely on.
It’d be a bit of hyperbole to characterize Odunze’s
debut campaign as a rollercoaster, but the rookie has lacked consistency,
both from one game to the next and even within the same game.
That was on display versus Detroit in Week 16 when he logged four
receptions for 77 yards -- his third-best total of 2024 -- but
lost a fumble to contribute to the team’s early deficit.
While Odunze has had moments, Moore sees more consistent involvement,
and Allen has been the one to shine in recent games with the Bears
playing from behind. At best, Odunze is a risky lottery ticket
with a modest ceiling.
Ladd McConkey stands out as a reliable option at wide receiver
for Week 17. He has managed double-digit PPR points in five consecutive
games and in seven of his last eight. Since Week 10, he hasn't
scored fewer than 14 points in any start. As a rookie, McConkey
has emerged as the Chargers' most consistent receiver, receiving
at least six targets in all but two of his starts. Although the
Patriots have been above-average in defending wide receivers,
they've sometimes had difficulties against slot receivers like
McConkey. While he may not offer the potential for a massive,
week-winning performance, he's certainly a dependable high-end
WR2 at this point.
This past week saw Justin Herbert surprise many fantasy analysts
with his best performance since Week 11, even against a tough
Denver defense. He threw for 284 yards and two touchdowns, adding
28 rushing yards despite one interception. Herbert had been on
a cold streak, including a mediocre showing against the subpar
Buccaneers in Week 15. His floor can dip into single digits, and
although he showed a decent ceiling, his generally low pass attempt
volume limits his potential for game-changing fantasy points in
your championship round. This season, he's only thrown the ball
more than 35 times in three games and has had fewer than 25 attempts
in four, capping his per-game ceiling since he hasn't thrown for
more than two touchdowns in any game.
Gus Edwards delivered his first multi-touchdown game of the season
in the Chargers' big win over the Broncos, likely catching many
fantasy owners off-guard as many had him on their bench. He also
carried the ball 14 times for a season-high 68 yards, which is
promising for those who need to start him in Week 17. However,
Gus has been ruled Out with an ankle injury.
The Patriots have generally been exploitable by running backs,
but at this time we don’t know if J.K. Dobbins (knee) will be
activated to play in this game. He hasn’t played since Week 12
and if he does suit up, he’s likely to share time with Kimani
Vidal.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Drake Maye's impressive rookie campaign continued this past week
as the Patriots nearly upset the Bills on the road. While the
Patriots' passing game needs more work, Maye himself has been
a bright spot as he's managed to surpass 200 passing yards in
all but two starts, including one exception being Week 8 when
he was forced out early. Furthermore, Maye's rushing ability,
averaging nearly 40 yards per game, has provided him with a surprisingly
high floor, making him a reliable fantasy option despite not having
the ceiling of some other quarterbacks.
The Chargers defense, typically strong against quarterbacks,
has shown vulnerability in recent weeks, allowing Baker Mayfield
to throw for 288 yards and four touchdowns in Week 15, and Bo
Nix to accumulate 263 yards and two touchdowns in Week 16, with
both also gaining exactly 25 rushing yards. While Maye isn't a
guaranteed star for this week, he's a viable pivot for fantasy
managers if quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts or Anthony Richardson
are sidelined.
New England has been a fantasy football wasteland this season,
and the situation has deteriorated further with Rhamondre Stevenson
losing his third fumble of the season in the Patriots' Week 16
defeat to the Bills. Though not officially confirmed by the coaching
staff, there's speculation that Stevenson might be losing his
full-time starting role to Antonio Gibson. Even if he retains
his position, Stevenson's hold on the backfield appears to be
weakening, as evidenced by him playing fewer snaps than Gibson
for only the second time this season in Week 16. This uncertainty
positions Stevenson as a player to steer clear of this week.
The New England passing game has been lackluster, but one bright
spot has been veteran tight end Hunter Henry, who has secured
a spot among the top-10 tight ends this season. His performance
against the Bills this past week included his second touchdown
of the year. Henry has also been targeted at least eight times
in five of his past seven games, translating into four double-digit
PPR performances, despite only one touchdown during that span.
However, Henry faces a tough challenge this week against a Chargers
defense that's been formidable against tight ends, allowing just
one touchdown to the position all season, which came back in Week
12 to Mark Andrews. The Patriots' defense also hasn't allowed
a tight end to gain more than 50 receiving yards since Week 7
(Trey McBride). While Henry might be worth holding onto for a
more favorable matchup against the Bills in Week 18, he's likely
a player to avoid in this particular game.
Bitten by the turnover bug with five interceptions in his previous
two games, Nix avoided any costly mistakes last Thursday, throwing
for 263 yards and two scores in a loss to the Chargers. It was
the fifth time in his last six games that the rookie has passed
for two or more touchdowns. His running has certainly become more
judicious, though, rushing for a combined 57 yards in that stretch
-- he has four rushing TDs on the year, but none since Oct. 27.
Nix has a plus matchup this Saturday against Cincinnati, which
ranks 26th in pass defense (231.6 yards/game). Only four team
have given more passing touchdowns (26). In what could be a high-scoring
affair, Nix carries top-10 potential into a game with AFC Wild
Card implications.
Few situations are more unsettled week to week than the Broncos
backfield. Javonte Williams was supposed to be the lead back,
but he hasn’t logged double-digit carries since Nov. 3, and over
his last four games he’s managed just 84 yards combined. Audric
Estime was the top back last Thursday, carrying nine times for
48 yards and a score. Of the group, however, McLaughlin feels
like he offers the most upside. He totaled 86 yards in his last
full game and led the team in carries (7) when he got hurt against
the Colts. Cincinnati allowed 6.2 yards per carry versus Cleveland,
and the week before that the combo of Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears
amassed 137 yards and 3 TDs. If you’re looking for an interesting
flier, McLaughlin could fit the bill.
Fade: N/A
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
At this stage, you should know the deal. The Cincinnati offense
is built on the four names above, all of whom belong in your weekly
lineup. Mike Gesicki has had a few impact games this season, though
all of them came when Higgins was out. His appeal when both Higgins
and Chase are playing is nominal. The other occasional contributor
is Iosivas, and his impact is a little harder to predict. He’s
had just two games of 50-plus yards this year, but he has six
touchdowns, which is tied for 20th in the NFL. He has two in his
last four games and is coming off a 3-53-1 line versus Cleveland.
While Iosivas is no more than an emergency flier, the presence
of Patrick Surtain could lead Burrow to seek nontraditional alternatives
more often than usual this Saturday.
With Marvin Harrison Jr. failing to break out in the manner expected
during his rookie season, Kyler Murray has been stuck on the fringe
of QB1 status. His legs have kept him on the right side of it
more often than not, including last week when he rushed for 63
yards and a score.
His connection with Trey McBride has also helped his floor, but
we’re more interested in Kyler’s potential ceiling in such a crucial
fantasy football week. Thankfully, he draws a Rams defense that
is beatable in a game that will be indoors on turf. The one drawback
is that Murray will be without both of his starting tackles. As
such, Kyler stays within QB1 territory, but on the backend.
Harrison is limping to the finish line of his rookie season,
having produced no more than 6.1 yards per target over the last
four games to go along with zero scores. Hardly the expectation,
but nonetheless the reality. The Rams can be beat by opposing
receivers, and the artificial turf may help Harrison maximize
his wheels. The targets are still there – he’s averaged
8 over the last five weeks – so there’s still upside.
But even with the plus matchup, expectations should remain somewhat
tempered; think of him as more of a back-end flex option for Week
17.
James Conner finally made it to Week 16 of an NFL season without
missing time, but now is at risk after leaving last week’s
game with a knee injury. He’s started the week practicing
in a limited manner, so there is a chance he will play. If he
looks healthy by the weekend, he’s absolutely a RB2.
If Conner’s not active, Trey Benson would be the next man
up, though it’s possible he would cede some work to Michael
Carter (5 rushes and receptions a piece last week). Benson would
have to clear injury as well, having started the week with a designation
for an ankle injury and also practicing in a limited manner. He’s
more of a flex than an RB2, if active.
If all else fails and it comes down to Carter, his ability to
receive out of the backfield probably leaves him carrying a similar
value to Trey Benson in a next man up role. Carter has shown some
ability to carry flex value when making spot starts for the Jets
in the past, and with the Cardinals down two tackles, Murray may
need to check down more often to his back. Like Benson, he’d
be a flex option if he ends up the starter.
Fade: N/A
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Fantasy football is a game in which a manager must balance the
ever-evolving nature and strategy of each player’s NFL team with
the long-term impact they’ve had on both the pro football and
fantasy game. During the last four weeks, Matthew Stafford has
thrown no more than 30 pass attempts. During that same time, while
Puka Nacua has stayed a red-hot target, veteran Cooper Kupp has
been quiet, catching 3 or less passes in three of the last four
games.
Two of those games were severely affected by the weather –
and both of those games saw Kupp draw just 3 targets and Stafford
combined for just 46 attempts. Home and indoors this week, one
can reasonably expect Stafford to get a little closer to the 35-40
attempts a game he was averaging with Nacua and Kupp just a month
prior, and Kupp’s targets to move closer to the 7-11 he
was averaging during that time.
Keep in mind that the Cardinals have given up just one 300-yard
passing performance this year, and when they do get burned by
QB’s it tends to be by those who have some mobility (ie. Bryce
Young and Drake Maye having rushed for touchdowns against them
in each of the last two weeks). So, Stafford is hardly a QB1 this
week, but is a solid play in deeper leagues and Super Flex.
Kupp should at least spring back into WR2 territory for Finalists
(or semi-finalists in longer running leagues).
Tyler Higbee made his 2024 season debut last week, catching 1
of his 2 targets for an 11-yard score. It was a nice to see Higbee
find a moment in his first game back from a major injury, but
he may need time to reprise a larger role. Additionally, he’s
generally only been on the fantasy radar in very favorable matchups,
and the Cardinals defense has been difficult for opposing tight
ends (4th fewest points allowed). He’s good to sit on the
bench and watch in your post-season matchup.
It's challenging to recommend anyone against the formidable Eagles
defense, but one player fantasy managers should approach with
particular caution is quarterback Cooper Rush. Rush has been on
a hot streak lately, throwing six touchdown passes over his past
three games and completing nearly 75 percent of his passes in
an unexpected Cowboys victory over the Buccaneers this past week.
This might lead fantasy managers to consider him as an emergency
fill-in for Week 17 if their usual starters are doubtful. However,
despite showing competence as a backup, Rush has a history of
delivering poor fantasy performances against strong defenses,
with his worst outing coming against this very Eagles defense
in Week 10. In that game, he completed just 13 of 23 passes for
an abysmal 45 yards, contributing to a 34-6 loss in Dallas. With
CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) now officially out for the season, there’s
just no reason to risk a subpar performance from your quarterback
could doom your team.
On the running back front, Rico Dowdle's performance in Week
16 was underwhelming, especially given the favorable matchup in
the Cowboys' upset win over the Buccaneers. Dowdle managed only
23 yards on 13 carries, marking his worst per-carry average of
the season, and he failed to score for the sixth time in his past
seven games. To make matters worse, when the Cowboys reached the
goal line, it was Ezekiel Elliott who scored, vulturing what could
have been a crucial touchdown for Dowdle's fantasy managers.
Looking ahead to Week 17, there's even more cause for concern
as Dowdle faces the Eagles again, a defense that previously limited
him to 53 rushing yards and kept him out of the end zone in Week
10. The Eagles have been one of the stingiest defenses against
running backs, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to the
position this season and only giving up five total touchdowns.
Dowdle isn't a player to automatically bench, but this is a significantly
tougher matchup than last week, potentially exacerbated by a negative
game script for the Cowboys.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Perhaps the most significant injury from Week 16 occurred early
in the Eagles-Commanders game when quarterback Jalen Hurts sustained
a concussion that ended his week. Fantasy managers who started
Hurts likely suffered a loss as he managed just 11 passing yards
and 41 rushing yards before exiting. This was a devastating blow
to potential championship rosters, and now, those who did manage
top advance to Week 17 must worry about Hurts potentially missing
the game against Dallas. Concussions have often led to multi-game
absences for players this season, so it wouldn't be surprising
if Hurts fails to clear concussion protocols. Fortunately, the
Eagles-Cowboys game is scheduled for the early Sunday slate, giving
those who have Hurts on their rosters time to monitor his status
and prepare a backup. If he does play, Hurts is a must-start,
considering he threw for two touchdowns and ran for two more against
Dallas in Week 10.
Wide receiver DeVonta Smith has experienced a season of inconsistency
compounded by injuries. He showed promise upon returning from
his latest injury, securing touchdowns in consecutive games against
the Panthers and Steelers, including an 11-catch, 109-yard performance
against Pittsburgh's defense. However, there are significant concerns
for Smith this week: the primary one being the uncertainty around
Jalen Hurts' availability, which adds risk to an already volatile
player. While Hurts isn't the most prolific passer, he's certainly
an upgrade over backup Kenny Pickett. Moreover, in their previous
meeting with the Cowboys back in Week 10, Smith had a minimal
impact, catching just two passes for 14 yards, despite the Eagles
scoring 34 points. This matchup doesn't favor him, and the situation
could deteriorate further if he's without his starting quarterback.
Garrett Wilson's target volume continues to trail that of his
teammate Davante Adams, but the young receiver has managed to
secure double-digit PPR fantasy points in three consecutive games.
He now confronts a Buffalo defense against which he previously
excelled, catching eight of 10 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown
in Week 6. While Wilson may not exhibit the WR1 potential he once
had before Adams joined the team, he remains a dependable WR2,
even in a road matchup against a formidable Bills squad. The Jets
will likely need to rely heavily on passing to keep the game competitive,
making Wilson an attractive option for fantasy managers.
The Jets might not be securing many victories, but future Hall
of Famer Aaron Rodgers has now thrown 24 touchdowns this season
and he's been excellent with ball security as of late, with just
one interception in his past eight games. While Rodgers doesn't
have the explosive potential for a championship-winning performance,
he could see a higher volume of pass attempts this week as the
Jets travel to face the Bills. In their Week 6 encounter, Rodgers
threw for his second-highest yardage total of the season (294
yards) and two touchdowns, though the Jets fell short. With the
Bills significantly improving since then, particularly on offense,
there's a good chance the Jets will trail by multiple scores,
potentially forcing Rodgers to throw more than usual. This scenario
makes him a viable pivot for fantasy managers needing a replacement
for their regular starters like Jalen Hurts or Anthony Richardson.
Running back Breece Hall has been below 4.0 yards per carry for
two consecutive games, managing only 52 yards on 14 carries in
the Jets' recent loss to the Rams. Despite this, Hall has delivered
decent fantasy points in these games thanks to his strong involvement
in the passing game. However, relying on this aspect of his game
becomes challenging when the Jets' offense struggles as much as
it has. Nevertheless, Hall remains a must-start for most fantasy
teams, even if his ceiling might be capped in what could turn
into a blowout loss against the Bills.
Fade: N/A
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Josh Allen's dud performance in Week 16 couldn't have come at
a worse time for fantasy managers who have relied on him as a
key piece of their playoff lineups. He managed only 154 passing
yards with one touchdown and an interception, adding 30 rushing
yards but failing to score on the ground for the first time since
Week 9. This letdown has naturally left those who survived it
feeling uneasy as they approach a matchup against a Jets defense
that looks formidable on paper. However, don't let this concern
lead you to bench a proven talent like Allen for another quarterback
just because of the matchup. Allen previously threw for two touchdowns
and ran for another against this same Jets defense in Week 6,
demonstrating his capability to deliver against any opponent.
He's one of the elite quarterbacks who can transcend tough defensive
matchups.
The Bills' passing game underperformed in Week 16, and that included
Khalil Shakir, who had his second-worst outing of the season,
catching just two passes for 22 yards in a tight win over New
England. This lackluster showing doesn't instill much confidence
as he prepares to face a Jets defense that previously limited
him to a season-low two catches for 19 yards in Week 6. However,
context is key; Shakir was returning from an injury in that game,
and the Bills leaned heavily on the run, with 33 rushing attempts,
which wasn't conducive to a strong receiving performance. Fantasy
managers should maintain optimism for Shakir this week, given
he has the most favorable matchup among Buffalo's receivers, working
from the slot against a Jets secondary known for its strong outside
cornerbacks. Expect Shakir to lead the team in targets, and while
the volume might not be immense, it should be sufficient to prevent
him from having back-to-back poor performances for the first time
this season.
Fade: All Other Bills Pass-Catchers
Amari Cooper, TE Dalton Kincaid, TE Dawson Knox, Keon Coleman,
Mack Hollins, Curtis Samuel—these are names familiar to
fantasy managers, but they're players to continue avoiding for
fantasy football purposes. Throughout the season, none have consistently
delivered reliable fantasy points, and now they're up against
a Jets defense that ranks among the league's best at defending
the pass. While Josh Allen is known for his ability to perform
against any defense, his tendency to distribute the ball widely
and use his legs near the goal line significantly caps the breakout
potential for these pass-catchers in fantasy terms.
Jakobi Meyers has proven to be able to draw targets alongside
Brock Bowers, earning at least 25 percent of the targets in four
of his last five games. Across the full season, Meyers is up to
a respectable 22.8-percent target share.
However, in an offense like the Raiders, players need to be elite
playmakers to produce in fantasy, even with this sort of volume.
Meyers is talented, but not gifted enough to regularly overcome
the struggles of the Las Vegas offense. Meyers has finished as
a WR2 or better just once in the last five weeks and required
15 targets to do so. Meyers is a low-ceiling, volume-based play
which isn’t what managers are typically looking for in the
fantasy championship.
Last week, we got our first taste of the Las Vegas backfield
without Zamir White or Sincere McCormick. Alexander Mattison and
Ameer Abdullah split the work fairly evenly with each back taking
a few drives before rotating out. Ultimately, Mattison played
57 percent of snaps and saw 19 opportunities (carries and targets)
while Abdullah played the other 43 percent of snaps and received
13 opportunities of his own.
With an offense of the quality of the Raiders, it’s hard
for running backs to return value in a committee. However, both
backs have pass-catching chops and the Saints also happen to rank
towards the bottom of the barrel in most defensive rushing efficiency
metrics. This duo can be viewed as emergency RB2 options this
week.
Fade: N/A
LV FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
LV FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
LV FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
LV FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
After going down with a scary concussion in Week 9, Chris Olave
has fully practiced to open the week and may make his return on
Sunday. If that is the case, Olave could be started on teams that
severely lack WR depth.
Considering this injury was a concussion, it’s certainly possible
that Olave plays a full complement of snaps in his first game
back. If this is indeed the case, Olave will have no issue earning
targets over Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kevin Austin Jr., and Dante
Pettis.
After getting completely blanked on Monday Night Football last
week, it’s quite obvious that the floor of this offense
is about as low as it gets. Olave has a path to succeeding to
some degree, but it’s likely too risky to rely on with Spencer
Rattler under center.
After Alvin Kamara went down with a groin injury, many hoped
that Kendre Miller would take on a bell cow role. That did not
come to fruition; Miller played 40 percent of the snaps and saw
10 of the 25 backfield opportunities last week. With no guarantee
that he’ll hold a featured role, Miller can’t be relied on in
fantasy lineups.
Jonathan Taylor could be argued as a "no-brainer" inclusion in
this article after his monstrous Week 16 outing, where he racked
up 218 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 29 carries, leading
the Colts to a win over the Titans. Over the last three games,
he's accumulated 421 rushing yards and four touchdowns, with at
least 22 carries in each contest. Fantasy managers can feel confident
about Taylor receiving a hefty workload again this week, especially
as the Colts travel to face the Giants, a team that's been porous
against running backs, conceding the fifth-most fantasy points
to the position this season. This was evident last week when they
allowed Bijan Robinson to rush for 94 yards and score twice.
Indianapolis quarterback Anthony Richardson is currently battling
back and foot injuries, which have kept him out of practice as
of Thursday, casting significant doubt on his status for this
weekend. With the Colts needing a win to keep their playoff hopes
alive, there's pressure on starters to play through injuries,
but this is a team that has Joe Flacco as a capable backup, with
some arguing he should be starting regardless. This uncertainty
increases the risk associated with Richardson, especially against
a Giants defense that's been much better against the pass than
the run this year. Apart from the five touchdowns they conceded
to Lamar Jackson in Week 15, the Giants have only allowed one
other quarterback (Jayden Daniels) to throw for multiple touchdowns
against them since Week 5. However, if Richardson can play, his
athleticism could exploit the Giants' weakness against mobile
quarterbacks.
Wide receiver Josh Downs managed to score against the Titans
last week, salvaging an otherwise underwhelming performance where
he caught just three passes for his third consecutive start. This
trend is a concern for fantasy managers since Downs thrives on
high target volume rather than just big plays for fantasy relevance.
The early lead in the game against the Titans prompted the Colts
to focus on their running game, which could explain the lower
target share for Downs in that game, however. He remains the team's
top receiving threat so if Richardson is sidelined, and Joe Flacco
starts, Downs might see an upside, given their previous chemistry.
Richardson's absence might hurt some fantasy lineups, but it could
actually benefit those with Downs on their roster.
Michael Pittman's disappointing season took another hit this
past week, as he caught just two of his three targets for a mere
19 receiving yards against the Titans. While this lackluster performance
might be attributed to a game script that favored the Colts and
didn't necessitate much passing, it's hard to ignore that Pittman
has now recorded single-digit PPR fantasy points in seven of his
last eight games. The Giants aren't a top-tier defense, but they've
been reasonably effective against wide receivers this season,
making this a poor time to consider starting Pittman in your fantasy
lineup.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Tyrone Tracy's ankle injury has him listed as questionable for
this week's game against the Colts, and his absence from practice
as of Thursday adds considerable risk for fantasy managers considering
him. Tracy had just seven carries last week, though he did score
thanks to his involvement in the passing game. However, the Giants'
struggling offense has often abandoned the run in the second half
of games, which could limit Tracy's touches, especially if his
ankle isn't fully recovered. Despite producing 14 or more PPR
points in three of his past four games, all losses for the Giants,
Tracy remains a risky start due to potential low carry counts
and the likely negative game script.
Malik Nabers, also sidelined from practice on Thursday, now has
his participation in this weekend's game in serious doubt. With
the Giants having little to gain from a win except perhaps a worse
draft pick, there's diminished incentive to play Nabers with his
ongoing toe injury. Although he's been a durable player this season,
playing through various ailments, the risk of aggravating the
toe injury and sitting out puts him in the "on the fence"
category even if he is active. He'd be a tough player to bench
given his target volume, averaging nearly 12 targets per game
and only missing double-digit PPR points once this season, so
don't take this "on the fence" mark as a must-bench,
but rather as more of a warning to keep an eye on his status.
This past week, Wan'Dale Robinson managed to reach double-digit
PPR points for the first time since Week 10, with the Giants'
slot receiver seeing 12 targets and turning seven of them into
62 yards - his highest yardage total since Week 4. Before this,
Robinson was on a dismal run, failing to hit double-digit PPR
points in seven out of his past eight games despite averaging
six targets per game during that period. While some fantasy managers
might be enticed by his recent target volume, Robinson lacks the
necessary upside to justify inclusion in fantasy lineups during
crucial championship weeks.
Even at the age of 34, Adam Thielen is still plugging along and
drawing targets at a high rate. Thielen has now led the team in
targets in four straight games, commanding a 25.4-percent target
share during this stretch.
Thielen is locked in as Bryce Young’s preferred target
and he’ll now get one of the most favorable fantasy matchups
for WRs in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay holds the league’s
No. 31 pass defense and offers a top-10 matchup for receivers
in fantasy. This matchup and Thielen’s role in the Carolina
offense make him a strong Flex play this week.
With Xavier Legette likely making his return, he and Jalen Coker
will serve as the WR2 and WR3 in Carolina. Even in a quality matchup,
it’s hard to project either of these receivers seeing enough
targets that make them appealing fantasy options. They’ll
likely have to rip off a big play or find the endzone to return
value this week. These aren’t the kind of bets you want
to make with the Carolina offense.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Baker Mayfield continues to produce in fantasy and is now up
to the QB5 on the year. He’s on pace to set career highs
in virtually every statistical category and is at the helm of
the league’s No. 3 passing offense. Mayfield has finished
as a weekly QB1 11 times this season and he’s poised to
make it a 12th. Carolina has the league’s 32nd-ranked scoring
defense, allowing 29.9 points per game. Mayfield could throw for
four touchdowns in this one and it wouldn’t be shocking.
Look for him to capitalize on what should be numerous red zone
drives for Tampa Bay.
Bucky Irving has become a fan favorite, but Rachaad White isn’t
going away just yet. This backfield remains as close to a 50-50
split as it gets. In the last four games where both backs were
fully healthy, White has played 50.0 percent of snaps, ran the
same number of routes as Irving, and seen the same number of goal
line carries. White has access to the high-value touches and should
be able to make the most of them against the defense that allows
the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.
Jalen McMillan has really started to break out of his shell in
recent weeks, averaging 19.0 PPR points per game across his last
three contests. Four touchdowns in this span have certainly helped
with his fantasy output, but McMillan’s peripheral metrics have
improved during this time as well. His target share has crested
20 percent in two of the last three games and his first-read target
share has consistently been above 20 percent after hovering in
the single digits early in the year. Given these improvements
and a matchup with the Carolina defense, McMillan is a reasonable
Flex option in Week 17.
The return of Evans and the rise of McMillan have significantly
hampered Cade Otton’s fantasy value. Otton has cleared double-digit
PPR points just once since Week 9, also finishing as a top-12
TE just once in this stretch. At this point, Otton is nothing
more than a touchdown-or-bust tight end. When the opponent is
the Panthers, you could reasonably make that bet with Otton if
he’s able to get on the field, but there are likely better
options.
It’s the same question every single week with Calvin Ridley…
will he haul in a deep ball to propel him to a productive week
in fantasy? Last week, the answer was yes with Ridley bringing
in a 38-yard touchdown on his way to 16.8 PPR points. Ridley has
caught a deep target (targets with 20-plus air yards) in every
single game where he’s finished as a top-24 receiver this
season.
With the Jaguars on deck this week, Ridley has a chance to make
an explosive play and have an all-around solid game. The Jaguars’
defense has been abysmal throughout the year, including in the
secondary. Jacksonville offers a top-5 fantasy matchup for opposing
receivers, making Ridley a viable Flex option.
Chigoziem Okonkwo has seemingly come out of nowhere to entrench
himself as Mason Rudolph’s safety blanket. Over the last two weeks,
Okonkwo has drawn 21 targets, clearing a 26-percent target share
in each game.
With an unestablished talent like Okonkwo, this could certainly
just be a blip before he returns to fantasy irrelevancy. However,
considering that Okonkwo drawing seven-plus targets isn’t
an unreasonable expectation and the matchup is the Jaguars, he
can be started this week.
After it looked like Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears had settled
into defined roles, Brian Callahan has altered their usage as
of late. Pollard had been the clear lead back for much of the
season, but Spears has led the backfield in snaps for two straight
weeks and even saw more touches than Pollard last week. Spears
has also handled the majority of goal line looks in these two
games.
Pollard’s ankle injury could be playing a role in his limited
usage, but it’s hard to ignore these varying roles. At this
point, given the quality of the Tennessee offense and heavy division
of touches, you're really just chasing touchdowns and receiving
work with these two backs. They can certainly have productive
days against the Jaguars, but don’t be surprised if one
(or both) of these backs is utilized in a frustrating manner.
Fade: N/A
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Much like the Tennessee backfield, the Jacksonville coaching
staff deploys their running backs in an unpredictable way that
often leaves fantasy managers frustrated. Over the last month,
Travis Etienne’s snap share has fluctuated between 50 percent
and 70 percent. Tank Bigsby has played anywhere between 30-50
percent of snaps in the last four weeks.
At times, it seemed that Bigsby would be the primary ball carrier
who benefited from positive game scripts while Etienne would mix
in as a rusher, play on passing downs, and see plenty of receiving
work. That hasn’t exactly held up either with Etienne taking
14 carries compared to 11 for Bigsby in a matchup (Week 15) where
Jacksonville was leading for the vast majority of the game.
The flow of each game certainly impacts each player's usage,
but the roles of both Bigsby and Etienne have been unpredictable,
leading to unreliable fantasy production. It’s best to stay
away from this backfield.
Brenton Strange drew some interest from fantasy managers after
he saw 12 targets in Week 15 following an injury to Evan Engram.
However, Strange was a massive letdown in Week 16 and could have
very easily lost the TE1 job. After fumbling the ball at the end
of the first half, Strange ran just three routes in the second
half, ceding work to Luke Farrell. Strange was already a fringe
TE; now with uncertainty surrounding his job security, he should
not be in consideration this week.
Injured during the team’s Week 15 loss to Houston, Waddle was
inactive last Sunday, and was limited in practice on Thursday.
Head coach Mike McDaniel was noncommittal when asked the wideout’s
status for Week 17, so that’s a situation to monitor, especially
when a dozen teams take the field before Sunday. If there’s any
doubt, and you have someone viable playing Saturday, don’t hold
a spot for Waddle. Beyond his questionable health, Waddle has
struggled for most of 2024. After opening the season with 109
yards in Week 1, he went nine consecutive weeks where he topped
50 yards only once. Things seemed to be looking up prior to the
injury, though, as he had an 8-144-1 line in Week 12, and a 9-99-0
in Week 14. If he’s cleared to return, Waddle could be a risk/reward
WR3.
Looking to turn the page after a miserable three-interception
outing versus the Texans, Tagovailoa avoided big mistakes during
Miami’s victory over San Francisco. He ended the game with
215 yards, 1 TD, and 0 INTs. The Browns have been uneven defensively,
boasting a potentially dangerous pass rush, led by Myles Garrett,
but also allowing some big plays. Weather could be a factor as
well. Miami has struggled in poor conditions under McDaniel, and
while the forecast doesn’t portend brutal cold, it could
be raining. Can you really trust Tagovailoa to deliver in that
scenario?
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
With Nick Chubb (foot) lost for the year, Ford worked as the lead
back in Week 16, handling 11 carries for 92 yards and a touchdown
while Pierre Strong and D’Onta Foreman combined for four rushing
attempts. Foreman actually got first crack at the goal-line carries,
but he fumbled, which isn’t the kind of thing teams are too forgiving
of from fringe contributors. We’ll see who gets those carries
in the final two games. Ford added five catches and 39 yards with
Dorian Thompson-Robinson preferring to check things down rather
than push the ball downfield. Look for Ford to continue as a key
cog on offense, making him an RB3/flex with a little upside.
During the seven games that Jameis Winston started following the
season-ending Achilles injury to Deshaun Watson, Jeudy never had
fewer than five receptions or 64 yards in game. He scored three
times during that stretch. In DTR’s starting debut, Jeudy had
two receptions and 20 yards. That’s only marginally better than
the 1-18-0 line he posted when Thompson-Robinson came on in relief
of an injured Watson. It feels crazy to advocate benching a 1,000-yard
receiver at this time of year, but if you have decent options,
you should seriously consider it. One addendum: if Thompson-Robinson
can’t go due to his calf injury and is replaced by Winston, Jeudy
immediately becomes a must-start selection.
One of the deciding factors in replacing Winston with DTR was
the number of negative plays Winston was making. In Thompson-Robinson’s
inaugural start, he tossed a pair of interceptions and absorbed
five sacks. There weren’t many positives, either, as DTR
averaged just 4.6 yards per attempt. He did run for 49 yards,
which is solid, but he’s dealing with a calf injury that
could impact his mobility. Stay away from Thompson-Robinson in
Week 17.
Make no mistake, the Packers have morphed into a run-first team.
Jacobs is putting together a stellar season, and backups Chris
Brooks and Emanuel Wilson have both proven themselves capable
contributors. When the Packers do go to the air, it’s tough to
know who Jordan Love will target. On Monday night, Reed led the
way with 76 yards on three catches. It was his top performance
since a 5-113-0 effort against the Lions on Nov. 3. His biggest
yardage game of the year came versus Minnesota back in Week 4,
recording seven receptions for 139 yards. The Vikings rank 29th
in pass defense on the season, surrendering 248.7 yards/game along
with 22 TDs. You can deploy Reed as your WR3 and hope he delivers
another triple-digit performance.
With the ground attack again doing the heavy lifting Monday night
(39-188-3 as a team), Love filled a complementary role. It’s
a significant departure for the offense. To see the difference,
one need only look at Love’s production. In his first five
games, Love passed for 15 touchdowns. Over his last eight games,
he’s totaled nine. When these two teams met back in Week
4, the Packers fell behind, 28-0, which led to Love throwing for
389 yards, 4 TDs, and 3 INTs. Assuming we get a closer game this
time around, the question becomes whether the Packers can maintain
their recent running success against the Vikings, which sit second
against the run. If so, Love is unlikely to even approach QB1
status. If not, Love might be a top-tier play.
A bonus selection for this week is Wicks. With Christian Watson
(knee) suffering a bruised knee Monday night, his status for Week
17 is TBD. In the first meeting with Minnesota, Watson got hurt
early on, which led to Wicks being targeted 13 times, catching
five passes for 78 yards and 2 TDs. Wicks has already had success
against the Vikings under similar circumstances. As a lottery
ticket play, he might be worth taking a chance on.
Fade: N/A
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
From a purely statistical perspective, Hockenson’s return
has been a disappointment. Outside of a 7-114-0 effort against
the Bears back on Nov. 24, the veteran tight end has averaged
just 38 yards per game. He’s also yet to score a touchdown.
With Xavier McKinney lurking, teams have been hesitant to push
the ball down the field against the Packers. Where opponents have
had success against Green Bay is working the middle, which could
be doubly true if any combination of Jaire Alexander (knee), Javon
Bullard (ankle), and Evan Williams (quad), all of whom were inactive
on Monday, don’t suit up in Week 17. It’d be a bit
of a risk to roll with Hockenson given his subpar production,
but there’s some interesting upside in this NFC North battle.
If you’ve been waiting for Darnold to turn into a pumpkin,
it’s probably time to accept this is the version of Darnold
we’ll be seeing this season. He delivered again in Week
16 in a comeback win on the road over the Seahawks, throwing for
246 yards and 3 TDs -- that was his fifth multi-touchdown outing
in the last six games. The former No. 3 overall pick had little
trouble with Green Bay’s defense in their earlier meeting,
logging 275 yards passing and three touchdowns with one INT. There
are two ways to look at this Sunday’s rematch in relation
to the first. One, the Packers were still learning a new defensive
scheme, and they’ve looked much better as the season has
worn on, holding all but one of their last six opponents to less
than 20 points. Alternately, you can focus on a secondary that
was missing three of its top four defensive backs Monday night
and is not guaranteed to get any of them back in Week 17. Darnold
has earned the benefit of the doubt, even in a potentially tough
matchup. You can start him this Sunday.
With only one game surpassing 20 fantasy points this season,
Drake London hasn't been a game-changer on a weekly basis, but
he's consistently performed as one of the league's more reliable
fantasy WR2s, maintaining his health and now ranking within WR1
territory for the season. This week, he faces a Commanders defense
that allowed 15 targets to A.J. Brown this past week, which positions
London as an intriguing fantasy option, especially if the game
turns into a high-scoring affair. Although we've seen limited
action from Michael Penix Jr. to judge his chemistry with London,
the matchup suggests fantasy managers can have confidence in starting
the Falcons' top pass-catcher.
Much like his teammate Drake London, Darnell Mooney presents
an intriguing fantasy option as the Falcons travel to play the
Commanders. In Penix's debut start, Mooney caught five of his
six targets for 82 yards against a solid Giants defense. Although
Mooney has been a boom-or-bust player throughout the season, fantasy
managers who've lost other receivers might find some hope in his
potential to deliver a serviceable performance this week.
We've witnessed several rookie quarterbacks emerge as weekly
fantasy options this season, yet it's likely premature for fantasy
managers to depend on the Falcons' new starter, Michael Penix.
He managed a decent performance in his debut this past week, completing
18 of 27 passes for 202 yards, but he didn't throw a touchdown
and had one interception. Considering Penix hasn't demonstrated
significant rushing ability, his upside as a rookie quarterback
in his second NFL start seems limited. While we can hope he does
enough to benefit his receivers, Penix is probably best left on
the bench until we have more evidence of his fantasy viability.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
With Austin Ekeler on IR, fantasy managers had high expectations
for Robinson to become a league-winner in the season's final weeks.
He had performed well in his two previous games, but his momentum
hit a wall this past week against the Eagles, one of the league's
top defenses. Robinson managed only 24 yards on 10 carries and
added two receptions for 17 yards, but he also lost two fumbles,
which nearly led to a loss for the Commanders. Although Robinson
hasn't historically had issues with fumbling, NFL coaching staffs
can sometimes overreact to recent performances, potentially leading
to a shift in backfield strategy. We should anticipate that Robinson
will still lead the backfield in Week 17, but there's a possibility
he'll share duties with Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez more
than fantasy managers might hope. This makes Robinson a riskier
start this week, particularly against a Falcons defense that has
only allowed four rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs
this season.
Zach Ertz continued to disappoint fantasy managers this past
week, managing just one catch for 12 yards on two targets, despite
the Commanders throwing 39 passes and scoring 36 points, with
Jayden Daniels throwing a career-high five touchdown passes. Ertz's
limited involvement wasn't an anomaly, as he also saw only two
targets in the Commanders' Week 15 win against the Saints. While
the tight end position is known for its volatility, potentially
allowing for a bounce-back performance, the Falcons have been
stingy against tight ends this season, allowing only three receiving
touchdowns and with just two tight ends catching more than five
passes in a game against them. Given these stats, Ertz looks like
a player to avoid on rosters with championship aspirations.
After producing just three top 12 QB performances through the
season’s first nine weeks, Jared Goff has broken the top
12 among weekly performers in five of the last seven games. During
that span, Goff has also hit or surpassed the 25-point mark three
times. Even the normally stingy defenses of Buffalo and Chicago
have had few answers for Goff and the Lions aerial attack.
While the 49ers are another difficult defense, the near immunity
of this offense to being stifled and the fact that the Lions two-headed
running attack is down to one makes Goff’s floor and ceiling
both inviting within the QB1 arena for Week 17.
Fantasy owners who invested in LaPorta prior to the 2024 season
have certainly felt the disappointment of his mere 4.9 targets
per game. While hopes of LaPorta emerging as the league’s
most prolific tight end are long gone this year, he has been on
the rise recently and shown a substantial increase in relevance
over the last several weeks.
Over the last six weeks, LaPorta is seeing 7 targets per game,
and averaging 11 points per contest. These are much closer numbers
to what was widely expected of the second-year talent.
This week, LaPorta draws a 49ers’ defense that has quelled the
production of many at the position, so it will be difficult for
him to have a stand out day. Most notably, if you’re looking for
a ceiling performance, San Francisco has not allowed a single
tight end this season to reach 10 fantasy points. The Lions ability
to spread their offense out may help keep LaPorta from being erased
in the manner that the 49ers have done to Hunter Henry (2.2 pts),
Travis Kelce (3.7 pts) and Cole Kmet (0 pts), but as a surging
LaPorta takes on this defense, he temporarily cools to more of
a backend TE1.
Fade: N/A
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
When weather hasn’t been a significant factor, Purdy has
reeled off seven consecutive 20-point fantasy performances. The
weather is expected to be mild Monday night and the Lions have
given up the 12th most points to opposing quarterbacks. In a game
where the 49ers may need to be playing catch-up, Purdy looks like
a very reasonable QB1 in Championship week.
Just before the end of Week 15, Deebo Samuel nearly sparked a
late comeback with a long kick return, the first big play from
him in a while. That proved to be a prelude to Week 16, where
Samuel finally shattered a five-week streak of producing 22 or
less receiving yards. With a 7-96-1 line on 9 targets, and 5 rushes
for 25 yards, he produced like the Deebo Samuel fantasy owners
had grown accustom to over the years.
His involvement and production in the running game coincides
with serious gashes into the depth of the 49ers backfield, and
if Isaac Guerendo (hamstring) is either inactive or limited, it
can be expected that Samuel’s role in the run game will be at
its ceiling. These possibilities are a needed cherry-on-top for
owners nervous about Deebo, despite his performance last week.
Drawing the Lions defense, which has given up the 2nd most receptions
and receiving yards to opposing wideouts is a blanket of comfort
as well. He’s looking like a healthier WR2 option than he’s been
for some time.
Jauan Jennings, has hung out closer to his floor than ceiling
over the last couple of weeks (2-31-0 and 4-51-0), but the targets
are still there – 15 over the last two weeks, just above
his average of 14.3 per two games for the season. With his steady
involvement, the production should return and there’s a
lot of reasons to anticipate it happening against the Lions. He
joins Samuel as a WR2 for Championship Week.
Isaac Guerendo has battled injuries recently, but in his last
two games before going down he saw 17 and 20 touches. Without
Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason, the path is clear for Guerendo
to once more handle RB1 duties if he’s healthy for Monday Night.
Having an extra day improves the odds, but if his status is still
up in the air as of Sunday morning, it’s good to consider
an alternate plan rather than risk being left hanging, especially
as Guerendo’s injury issues and pass blocking issues do
create some low floor risk.
Guerendo also would be set to draw the leagues’ 4th toughest
defense against fantasy running backs, though a spur of recent
injuries, including to run stuffers Alex Anzalone and Alim McNeill,
have diminished the Lions effectiveness at making stops on the
ground. A fully cleared Guerendo would be a respectable flex option
this week.
If last week is an indication of what a day in the life of 49er
RB1 Patrick Taylor will look like, there’s not a whole lot
of room for upside with the team’s “4th man up”
in the backfield. It’s not surprising that a struggling
Deebo Samuel would be turned to ahead of Taylor, considering Taylor’s
limited involvement in offenses during his career. If he does
draw the start, a difficult Lions rush defense will make his ceiling
even lower. He’s at best, a borderline RB3 for Week 17.
