At this point, the production of Baker Mayfield is undeniable.
He’s been a top-5 weekly QB three times this season, accounting
for multiple touchdowns in all three of those contests.
Liam Coen and the Buccaneers’ coaching staff are letting
Mayfield sling the rock, and he’s succeeding. Tampa Bay
ranks 2nd in the NFL with a 5.8-percent pass rate over expectation.
Mayfield has a healthy 70.5-percent completion percentage while
averaging 7.6 yards per attempt.
The Falcons present a rather average matchup for Mayfield, ranking
19th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. With the way Mayfield
has played this season, he’s a top-12 option even in a matchup
that isn’t exactly advantageous.
As the weeks progress, the backfield split in Tampa Bay draws
tighter. In Week 4, Bucky Irving played 42 percent of snaps and
saw 12 opportunities. Rachaad White, on the other hand, played
58 percent of snaps and was given 13 opportunities.
The key development in the distribution of touches came at the
goal line. Over the course of the 2023 season and early this season,
White had a monopoly of the goal line work. When the Bucs needed
a punch-in touchdown, White got the call. Things did a complete
180 in Week 4 with Irving handling every single goal line carry
among the running backs.
This backfield is pushing towards a 50-50 split of snaps, total
touches, and high-value touches (targets and goal line looks).
This is huge for Bucky Irving “truthers”, but this
creates a messy situation for the time being. It’s hard
to rely on either back and the only way for them to return value
in lineups on a weekly basis is by scoring touchdowns. It’s
likely best to keep both on the bench and see how this shakes
out for another week.
Fade: N/A
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Those who bought back in on Kyle Pitts this offseason are in
absolute shambles. He looks bad both on film and from an analytical
perspective. Pitts’ tape shows a player who can’t
win on his routes and struggles to create separation. His analytical
profile shows a rotational receiver (68 percent route participation)
who struggles to earn targets (11 percent target share). Put all
of this together, you have a player who put up a goose egg in
Week 4. Ideally, you’d have another option to start in place
of Pitts. Unfortunately, the state of the tight end position might
prevent you from doing so. At this point, it still feels better
to chase the upside of Pitts than chase six PPR points on the
waiver wire.
Darnell Mooney isn’t the ideal choice in your Flex, but
there are worse options. Mooney currently leads the team in yards
and has commanded a respectable 19-percent target share. The key
drawback here is that Tampa Bay has been fairly effective against
receivers this year, holding them to the 7th-fewest fantasy points
per game. With Mooney, the hope is that he connects with Kirk
Cousins on a deep target and scores a lengthy touchdown as he
did against the Eagles. This is a possibility, it’s just
not something you’d like to rely on.
On a day when not much looked good with New York’s offense,
Allen remained effective, rushing eight times for 34 yards (4.3
YPC) and adding a 12-yard reception in the loss to Denver. The
University of Wisconsin product has averaged 57 yards per game
over the last three weeks to go with a pair of touchdowns. Minnesota’s
run defense currently ranks second in the NFL, but that’s
a bit deceiving. They’ve played almost the entire season
with a lead, which has forced teams to air it out and abandon
the run. New York’s defense is good enough that they shouldn’t
get buried. That should allow the Jets to maintain some balance.
Allen as an RB3 or flex could pay off.
While his uniform has changed, Rodgers has a long history with
the Vikings from his time with the Packers. The veteran is coming
off a disappointing performance in Week 4 when he threw for 225
yards without a touchdown. At age 40, the prospect of traveling
to London to play this Sunday probably doesn’t sound all
that appealing. Minnesota ranks dead last against the pass, however,
and their defense is predicated on creating confusion. If there’s
one quarterback in the NFL that has seen it all, it’s Rodgers,
which could give him an edge. He’d be a risk to rely on
as your QB1 to be sure, but it feels like there’s some tangible
upside here as well.
Fade: N/A
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Back from a two-game absence due to an ankle injury, Addison immediately
made his presence felt, scoring twice. Once on a 29-yard pass
and later courtesy of a seven-yard run. All told, he finished
the game with 79 combined yards to go with his two tuddies. Green
Bay found out late in the week they’d be minus star Jaire
Alexander (hamstring), however, which severely weakened their
secondary. The Jets should have no such issues. New York is second
in the NFL in pass defense at 128 yards per game, and Sauce Gardner
is among the league’s best. You know Jefferson is going
to get his, so how much would that leave for Addison? Maybe he’s
worth taking a chance on as a WR3, but even that feels questionable.
Through four games, Darnold has exceeded all reasonable expectations.
He’s ninth in the NFL in passing yardage (932) and leads
the league in TD passes (11). Not bad for a guy on his fourth
team in seven seasons. New York’s defense is almost certainly
his toughest test to date -- the 49ers never seemed to recover
from allowing a 97-yard TD pass to Jefferson -- and there’s
now a month’s worth of film available to study. While New
York has faced a shaky group of quarterbacks on their way to being
the NFL’s No. 2 pass defense, they have the personnel to
make things tough on Darnold. This looks like too much downside
for modest potential.
De'Von Achane's recent performances have been concerning, especially
for fantasy managers who were hoping he'd build on his breakout
rookie campaign. After being held under 3.0 yards per carry in
three of his four games this season, it's understandable why some
might be hesitant to start him. However, Achane’s heavy
involvement in the Dolphins' passing game adds a silver lining.
His 22 targets in four games, converting 20 of them into 187 yards,
have provided him with consistent PPR value despite his struggles
on the ground.
The last two games saw the Dolphins forced into a more pass-heavy
approach due to falling behind, limiting the opportunities for
the running game to develop. This week, however, the matchup against
a struggling Patriots offense, which has only averaged 13 points
per game, presents a much more favorable game script. The Dolphins
should be able to maintain control, allowing them to lean more
on their ground game.
Achane should continue to see the majority of the workload in
the Dolphins’ committee approach. Given how Jordan Mason found
success against the Patriots' defense in Week 4 (123 rushing yards
and a touchdown), there's reason to believe Achane could bounce
back this week. He’s a risk but offers enough upside, particularly
in PPR formats, to warrant consideration as a flex or RB2 option
in Week 5.
Tyreek Hill's recent performances have certainly raised concerns
for fantasy managers who have become accustomed to his elite production.
Since Tua Tagovailoa's injury, Hill's target share and overall
impact have dropped significantly, and it's clear that none of
Miami's backup quarterbacks have been able to maximize his potential.
While Hill's explosiveness remains undeniable, his role in the
offense has diminished, with just six, five, and seven targets
in the last three games. These lower target numbers, paired with
the Dolphins' struggles and blowout losses, make it difficult
to project consistent production for him.
This week’s matchup against the Patriots, a team known
for their disciplined secondary, adds further risk. Hill is still
a player who can explode for a big play at any moment, but he
has become much more "boom or bust" in this current
situation. Instead of the reliable WR1 that managers are used
to, Hill is better viewed as a WR3 or flex option until Miami's
quarterback situation improves and he sees more consistent opportunities.
Given the state of the Dolphins' offense and the tough matchup,
it’s reasonable to consider other options if you have strong
wide receiver depth.
Jaylen Waddle's recent drop in production highlights just how
much the Dolphins' quarterback situation is impacting his fantasy
value. Known for his big-play ability and efficiency, Waddle's
100-yard performance in Week 1 seemed to set him up for another
solid season. However, with just six targets or fewer in each
of the last three games—despite Miami trailing heavily—it's
clear that the passing game has struggled to get him involved.
His current 8.5 yards per reception and lack of touchdowns are
further dampening his appeal.
The Dolphins' quarterback issues have hit Waddle particularly
hard, making him a risky fantasy play. Even though he remains
efficient with his limited targets, the overall lack of volume
and explosiveness in this offense has pushed him outside of WR3
range and potentially even WR4 territory for now.
Facing a tough New England defense that ranks well against wide
receivers, Waddle's upside is minimal this week. In standard-sized
leagues, it's likely best to bench him for the time being. For
those in deeper leagues with limited options, Waddle could still
be playable, but expectations should be tempered until the Dolphins'
passing game shows improvement.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
No Brainers: N/A
Favorites: N/A
Update: Rhamondre
Stevenson is not expected to start but will play.
Rhamondre Stevenson has struggled to make an impact in recent
weeks due to the Patriots' offensive struggles and unfavorable
game scripts, but things could improve in Week 5 against the Dolphins.
Miami's defense has been porous against the run, allowing the
fourth-most fantasy points to running backs so far this season,
including seven touchdowns in just four games. With a more competitive
game likely on the horizon, Stevenson should see a heavier workload,
especially if the Patriots can keep the score close. Despite the
emergence of Antonio Gibson, Stevenson remains a solid option
as he continues to play over 60% of the offensive snaps. This
matchup provides a much-needed opportunity for Stevenson to bounce
back as a strong RB2 in fantasy lineups.
As for Patriots rookie wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk, his Week 4
breakout performance is noteworthy for fantasy managers in deep
leagues. Polk led Patriots wide receivers in snaps, playing 83%
and commanding a 22% target share, which is a significant jump
from previous weeks. While New England's offense isn't one to
get excited about, Polk's increased usage could signal that he's
carving out a larger role. If he continues to see a growing target
share, potentially pushing toward 30%, Polk could emerge as a
deeper-league option. For now, he’s a speculative add or
desperation play, but his potential upside makes him someone to
monitor moving forward.
Fade: Everyone Else
The New England offense has indeed struggled mightily this season,
and even in a year where many teams are dealing with offensive
issues, they stand out for their inefficiency. They’ve yet
to score over 20 points in a single game, and with an implied
total under 20 points this week, it’s hard to be optimistic
about their offensive output, even against a Miami defense that
has had issues of its own.
The quarterback situation is a major factor here. If the Patriots
do decide to move from Jacoby
Brissett to rookie Drake Maye, it could inject some new energy
and potential into the offense. Maye's arrival might open up opportunities
for players like Ja'Lynn Polk or other Patriots pass-catchers
moving forward, but until that happens and we see some consistency,
it’s difficult to trust anyone in this offense outside of Rhamondre
Stevenson.
In the current setup, ancillary players like Polk, Demario Douglas,
and Kayshon Boutte are risky options due to the low-volume, inefficient
nature of the Patriots' passing game. Even with a potential quarterback
switch looming, it's probably best to avoid these players for
now in most fantasy formats. If the change does happen, there
might be some upside later in the season, but Week 5 is not the
time to take that gamble.
In two games since the Panthers made the switch from Bryce Young
to Andy Dalton, Johnson (ankle) has collected 15 receptions (on
27 targets), 205 yards, and 2 TDs. It’s a stark contrast to the
5-34-0 line he posted the first two weeks when Carolina’s offense
couldn’t get out of neutral. The veteran is nursing an ankle injury
and was held out of practice Wednesday before being limited on
Thursday, but the belief is it’s just precautionary. While the
Bears have been a solid pass defense -- they are No. 8 in that
department, allowing 174.5 yards per game -- a veteran like Dalton
should be able to move the offense to some extent, and right now
Johnson is his No. 1 target. Pencil Johnson in as a strong WR3.
While Panthers fans and fantasy owners alike await the debut
of Jonathon Brooks (knee), who is currently on the PUP list recovering
from an ACL injury he suffered while at the University of Texas,
Hubbard is quietly off to a good start. As you’d expect, his production
has ticked up dramatically since Dalton was inserted into the
lineup with back-to-back 100-plus-yard performances and touchdowns
in each game. All told, he’s averaging 145 yards per game in those
two weeks. Chicago’s run defense hasn’t been great to open the
season, but they were a top group a year ago, and if they feel
like they want to make Dalton and the passing game beat them,
they might be able to limit what Hubbard can do. You can still
plug him in as a low-end RB2, but there’s some downside.
Dalton has been a godsend for the Panthers, helping take an offense
that looked absolutely lost and leading it to 60 points over the
past two weeks. His own numbers are impressive as well -- 539
yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT -- albeit against a couple of defenses that
haven’t been great this season. Without question, Chicago
boasts a more talented and opportunistic defense than anyone Dalton
has faced, and for all his veteran savvy, there’s a reason
the Red Rifle has only been a full-time starter once in the last
five years, and even then, it took an injury. It’d be better
to bench him in Week 5.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Through his first three games in a Bears uniform, Swift was abysmal.
Thirty-seven carries had resulted in 68 yards, and his involvement
in the passing game had been nominal (six receptions, 46 yards).
He had a breakout performance against the Rams, rushing for 93
yards and a touchdown on 16 carries, and adding 72 yards on seven
receptions. He led the team in both areas and exceeded his season-to-date
totals as well. The Panthers enter play in Week 5 ranked 29th
against the run, giving up 148.8 yards per game and 4.6 yards
per carry, offering Swift a chance to stack success. Make sure
you get him in your lineup this weekend.
After attempting 52 passes in Week 3, resulting in 363 yards (and
three turnovers), Williams threw just 23 times against the Rams,
settling for 157 yards and 1 TD. He avoided the turnovers that
had dogged him in back-to-back losses, but fantasy owners would
take an INT or two if it meant a bigger role. Looking at the Carolina
defense, it’s easy to envision a similar approach to this
past Sunday where the team leans on the running game and sprinkles
in Williams. Then again, only one team has surrendered more touchdown
passes than the Panthers (9), so that gives Williams some upside.
If you need to cover a bye, the rookie might deliver.
While Allen returned from a heel injury in Week 4, the veteran
produced just three catches for 19 yards. Odunze, meanwhile, had
just one reception for 10 yards; that was a very disappointing
follow up to the 6-112-1 line he had in Week 3. While the sample
size remains very small, we have yet to see the duo produce much
at all in the two games they’ve both been available. With
Moore likely to be the focal point of the passing attack, particularly
against his former club, there’s no compelling reason to
find a place in your lineup for Odunze or Allen.
With Jonathan Taylor (ankle) missing practice on both Wednesday
and Thursday, he seems unlikely to suit up on Sunday. This puts
Trey Sermon in a position where he will likely assume a bell cow
workload. Based on projectable volume alone, Sermon falls into
RB2 territory.
Sermon will also benefit from a very strong matchup and overall
situation. The Colts’ offensive line has allowed Indianapolis
ball carriers to rank 3rd in yards before contact per attempt.
On the other side of the ball, Jacksonville has allowed the 7th-most
fantasy points to RBs this season. This is all setting up for
Sermon to be a very strong plug-and-play option.
The fantasy outlook is quite messy for just about every key piece
of the Indianapolis offense due to injury. Anthony Richardson
(hip) is likely to draw a questionable tag after being limited
in practice on both Wednesday and Thursday. His presence (or absence)
on the field significantly impacts the fantasy value of Pittman
and Josh Downs.
Richardson has been an absolute disaster as a passer this season.
His off-target throw rate currently sits at 28.6 percent, by far
the highest mark of any starting quarterback. Richardson’s
inaccuracy, combined with the Colts’ pass-heavy offense
has led to Colts pass catchers seeing the fewest catchable targets
per game of any team. With Richardson under center, it’s
hard to feel confident in Pittman or Downs.
However, if Joe Flacco is calling the shots, the outlook dramatically
changes for this duo. Both had their best game of the season with
Flacco throwing passes last week; Pittman scored 17.3 PPR points
while Downs racked up 22.2 points. It took one game for it to
become quite clear that Flacco creates the best offensive environment
for the Indianapolis WRs. If he is the one taking snaps, Pittman
is a solid WR2 and Downs is elevated to a Flex option.
Fade: N/A
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Rookie Brian Thomas Jr. has been incredibly impressive through
four NFL games. He is currently the WR14 after squaring off with
several talented secondaries in Miami, Cleveland, Buffalo, and
Houston. He’s found success while drawing a target on 23 percent
of his routes and averaging 2.48 yards per route run, both incredibly
strong marks for a rookie. He now gets a very favorable matchup
against an Indianapolis defense that has struggled against talented
outside receivers like Thomas. The Colts allowed 110-plus yards
to Nico Collins, George Pickens, and Rome Odunze. Thomas could
very easily be the next name on that list.
After two troubling weeks to start the year, Christian Kirk is
back to looking like his old self. In his last two games, Kirk
has accounted for 28 percent of Jacksonville’s targets, drawing
double-digit targets in both contests. He’s back in his slot-heavy,
high-volume role that has allowed him to serve as a strong Flex
option in recent years. He should be viewed in this light moving
forward.
In most cases, it’s hard to take Travis Etienne out of
your starting lineup. He displayed a top-5 RB ceiling in 2023
and has finished as a weekly RB2 twice this season. However, Etienne’s
peripheral metrics have been rather pedestrian. Among 49 running
backs with at least 25 carries, he ranks 23rd in explosive rush
rate, 19th in missed tackles forced per attempt, 14th in yards
after contact per attempt, and 20th in YPC. Etienne’s ability
to deliver RB1 performances likely hinges on Jacksonville’s
ability to regularly put together scoring drives. Most rosters
will be forced to start him, but teams with depth at RB could
reasonably bench him. Etienne should be viewed as a low-end RB2
this week.
Khalil Shakir has not practiced this week with an ankle injury.
This isn’t a great sign for his Week 5 availability; even
if he’s able to take the field, this is the type of injury
that can hamper a receiver’s effectiveness.
Regardless of the injury, Shakir is hard to rely on in fantasy
lineups. The touches in the Buffalo offense are incredibly spread
out and no receiver is the clear alpha. No receiver has garnered
a 20-percent target share on the year - Shakir leads the way at
18.3 percent. As a result, Shakir comes in as the WR77 in expected
fantasy points per game. It’s just hard to lean on any Bills’
receiver unless a No. 1 option emerges.
Fade: N/A
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Mixon is in danger of missing a third straight game after logging
two DNPs to open the week. Obviously, he’s staying on your
bench if he’s inactive. Even if he takes the field, leaving
him on the bench may be a good choice. Ankle sprains have been
known to rob running backs of their burst and efficiency. It’s
best to see if Mixon passes the “eye test” upon his
return before trusting him in your lineup.
Tank Dell has been a flat-out disappointment this season. He
doesn’t have a weekly finish higher than WR41 on the season
and all fantasy managers have to cling onto is a few near misses
on potentially explosive plays. Dell has been targeted on a disappointing
16 percent of his routes and has only caught 56 percent of his
looks. He’s become the clear 3rd option in the Houston passing
attack and really only serves as a boom-bust WR3. Against a Buffalo
defense that has allowed the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to WRs,
this doesn’t seem to be a “boom” spot for Dell.
It’s been a quiet couple of weeks for the Ravens passing
game, and that has greatly affected Flowers, who has a combined
four catches for 30 yards in the past two games. Look for him
to be more involved this Sunday. While the Bengals have been more
susceptible to the run than the pass, their inability to rush
the passer (5 sacks, second-fewest in the NFL) should create opportunities
to reintegrate the passing game into Baltimore’s offensive
attack. In two meetings with Cincinnati last year, the then-rookie
posted seven receptions and 118 combined yards. He’s worth
sticking in your lineup as a WR3 with a little juice.
While Henry has grabbed the headlines, Hill has quietly been
a highly effective change-of-pace back for the Ravens. He’s
averaging 59 total yards per game on the season and scored his
first touchdown in their Sunday night win over Buffalo. Cincinnati
currently ranks 26th against the run (145.5 yards per game allowed),
and though much of Hill’s damage has been done in the passing
game, he still looks a possible flex play.
After Week 1, there was a fear that Isaiah Likely was going to
usurp the No. 1 tight end role from Andrews. Instead, both players
have fallen off the map. Andrews, a former All-Pro selection,
hasn’t caught a pass since Week 2, and he’s only been targeted
twice. For as bad as the tight end position has been across the
league this season, Andrews has been on another level of unproductive.
It might be a little early to completely cut bait on the veteran,
who averaged a 76-940-8 line from 2019-22, but you can’t trust
him in your lineup at this moment.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
After knocking the rust off in Week 3, Higgins looked more like
his old self in Sunday’s win over the Panthers. He led the team
in both targets (10) and receptions (6), and his 60 yards were
second to Chase. Higgins, who would miss the second meeting between
the clubs last season due to injury, was Cincy’s most effective
weapon during the team’s Week 2 matchup with the Ravens, catching
eight passes for 89 yards while accounting for both of Cincinnati’s
touchdowns. With Baltimore sitting 29th in pass defense (257.5
yards allowed per game), Higgins offers WR2 potential this week.
The Bengals leaned into the running game in Carolina with Moss
(15 carries, 51 yards) and Brown (15 carries, 80 yards, 2 TDs)
both getting a lot of work. To put it mildly, the Ravens aren’t
the Panthers. Baltimore has allowed just 231 rushing yards this
season, leading the NFL in both yards per game (57.8) and yards
per carry (3.0). Cincinnati can’t abandon the run, but after seeing
the backs split touches last week it makes it far more difficult
to guess which of the two will provide a decent return on investment
this Sunday as it seems unlikely there’ll be enough production
to sustain them both. Don’t view either as more than a flex option,
but Moss feels like the slightly safer play given his more physical
style.
Amari Cooper's season has indeed been frustrating, but it's hard
to ignore his role as the Browns' most-targeted player heading
into a matchup against the Commanders, a defense that has been
highly generous to opposing wide receivers. They've allowed 10
receiving touchdowns to the position through just four weeks,
which makes this a prime opportunity for Cooper to break out of
his slump. Despite the disappointment from Week 2 against the
Jaguars, the volume Cooper is seeing in this offense suggests
that this might be the week where he capitalizes. If you don’t
have obviously better options, this is a classic case of trusting
the process, especially with such a favorable matchup on tap.
As for Jerome Ford, he continues to hold the Browns’ backfield
in Nick Chubb’s absence, and while he's only scored one touchdown
so far, his versatility and involvement in the passing game make
him an appealing fantasy option. Ford has hauled in 17 catches
over four games and has logged nearly 80 percent of the Browns'
snaps over the last two weeks. While there was some worry that
D’Onta Foreman might cut into his workload, Ford remains the clear
lead back. Against Washington's shaky defense, which has struggled
across the board, Ford looks like a strong play once again this
week, especially in PPR formats where his passing game involvement
adds another layer of value.
Deshaun Watson and Jerry Jeudy do indeed stand out as strong
bye-week fill-ins or injury replacements in Week 5, especially
with their favorable matchup against a weak Washington Commanders
secondary. Washington's defense has been a goldmine for fantasy
purposes, allowing the most passing touchdowns in the league without
securing a single interception. This makes both Watson and Jeudy
appealing options.
Jerry Jeudy has been more of a steady presence than a boom-bust
player, consistently putting up solid, if unspectacular, numbers.
While he hasn't delivered a big spike week like Amari Cooper,
his consistency—particularly in PPR formats—makes
him valuable, especially during bye weeks. He may not have immense
upside, but his steady output (around 12 points in PPR formats)
offers a safe floor, making him a solid option for those scrambling
due to byes or injuries.
As for Deshaun Watson, he's in a great spot to capitalize on
this leaky Washington secondary. The Commanders' inability to
stop passing touchdowns or generate turnovers bodes well for Watson,
who hasn't been spectacular but has the potential to deliver one
of his best performances of the season. With Washington's offense
also moving the ball effectively, this game has the makings of
a potential shootout, which should raise Watson’s fantasy
ceiling. If you’re looking for a streaming quarterback,
Watson stands out as one of the better options in Week 5 due to
this favorable matchup.
The Washington Commanders' defense has been surprisingly effective
against tight ends, allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points
to the position so far this season. While they haven’t faced
a murderer's row of elite tight ends, their ability to limit production
from the position is worth noting, particularly in relation to
David Njoku.
Njoku has been dealing with injuries, and even if he plays, it's
highly likely that he will be limited both in snaps and overall
involvement in the game plan. His potentially reduced role, combined
with the Commanders' ability to stifle tight end production, makes
him a risky fantasy option for Week 5. In this case, the matchup
isn't as exploitable as it may seem, especially with better options
available elsewhere. Njoku is best viewed as a low-ceiling, touchdown-dependent
option this week, and managers should explore other tight end
options if possible.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
It’s a positive sign that Austin Ekeler is on track to return
after being upgraded to full participation in practice on Thursday,
and this sets up a strong potential for him to dominate touches,
especially with Brian Robinson Jr. missing practice due to a knee
injury. If Robinson misses the game, Ekeler’s role becomes even
more secure, making him a solid RB2 with upside in PPR formats,
especially given his pass-catching ability.
Ekeler’s usage as a runner has been effective, as evidenced
by his 6.4 yards per carry, but it’s his receiving work
that provides the most consistent fantasy production. He’s
already racked up 121 receiving yards on nine catches in limited
playing time this season, and his dual-threat ability makes him
a valuable asset.
The possible presence of Jeremy McNichols could slightly eat
into Ekeler’s touches, especially in early-down or short-yardage
situations, but Ekeler should still lead the Commanders' backfield
in both carries and targets, especially if Robinson is out. Overall,
he’s a strong RB2 play this week with RB1 upside if his role continues
to expand and Robinson sits.
Terry McLaurin has certainly heated up over the past two weeks
with 152 yards and two touchdowns, and while that’s encouraging
for fantasy managers, this Week 5 matchup against Denzel Ward
and the Cleveland Browns' defense is a tough one. Ward is known
for locking down opposing top receivers, and players like DeAndre
Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, and Michael Pittman Jr. have all struggled
in their matchups against Cleveland’s secondary. The Browns' defense
has been one of the most suffocating in the NFL, especially when
it comes to limiting WR1s.
McLaurin is still averaging seven targets per game, and that
volume should keep him in consideration for lineups. However,
fantasy managers may want to temper expectations. If you have
a deeper wide receiver corps, you might consider sitting McLaurin
in favor of a player with a better matchup this week. Still, in
leagues where volume is king or if you’re short on alternatives,
McLaurin’s involvement in Washington’s offense makes him a viable,
though riskier, WR3 play this week.
Robinson’s knee injury certainly complicates things for
fantasy managers as they prepare for Week 5. Given that he has
missed practice, it’s crucial to monitor his status closely
leading up to game time. If he’s unable to practice again,
it may be wise to assume he’ll be limited or inactive, which
could significantly affect his performance.
Robinson has been a pleasant surprise this season, establishing
himself as a borderline elite RB1. His ability to handle a significant
workload has been key to his success, but if he’s not at
full strength, the Commanders may opt to limit his touches to
prevent further injury.
Fantasy managers should keep an eye on the latest updates regarding
Robinson’s status. If he remains sidelined or limited in
practice, it’s best to prepare for an alternative, whether
that’s another running back on your roster or a waiver wire
pickup.
Las Vegas suddenly has a bunch of targets available, with Davante
Adams (hamstring?) seeking a trade and no longer active. The 10+
targets per game he’s averaged over his three years with
the Raiders are now up for grabs. Brock Bowers currently ranks
3rd in points among tight ends, despite a quiet couple of weeks
following an explosive start to his career. Bowers is unarguably
the most athletic talent remaining in this offense, and he’s
reasonably going to shift from being the 3rd most targeted player
on the team to the 2nd most, behind a man discussed below. Becoming
even a second option in an offense tends to be a very big key
to the city for tight ends in fantasy football, and it should
lock Bowers in as a TE1, if he wasn’t already.
The Broncos might be the toughest defense in the league, allowing
just 4.2 yards per play according to pro-football-reference. Tight
ends have averaged just 6.6 yards per catch against them, so it
won’t be easily sledding for Brock. Still, Minshew will
have to find someone to feed, and Bowers volume should keep him
in the TE1 picture.
A rapidly developing and messy situation has Davante Adams headed
out of town to a yet unknown destination and Jakobi Meyers suddenly
No.1 on their depth chart at wide receiver. It’s unlikely that
he regularly sees Davante Adams-type targets, despite getting
10 last week and having 19 over the last two games. Even if he
does, it’s unrealistic to expect him to do as much with those
targets as Adams, who is at least a borderline Hall of Famer.
Meyers is not a true No.1 wideout and will face tougher coverage
without Davante Adams’ presence Still, Meyers should be another
large benefactor of the Adams absence, and his 6.7 targets per
game should noticeably rise. Unfortunately, against the Broncos
and Patrick Surtain, it’s best to think of Meyers as more of a
WR4 whom you should only play if you are a bit short-handed.
2023 3rd round pick Tre Tucker has shown signs of progress and
has seen 15 targets and a rush over the last two weeks, producing
140 total yards and two touchdowns, so he is very much worth adding
as the Raiders No.2 wide receiver going forward. Arguably, he
may be as good or better a play than Meyers this week, as he should
see a lot less of Surtain, and a lot more of Riley Moss. Moss,
also a 3rd round selection from last year’s draft, appears to
be no one to step over, mind you, having allowed just 6.1 yards
per target against in his first year as a starter. Still, this
seems like a matchup either Tucker or Moss could walk away victorious
in, whereas it’s unlikely that Meyers can out-tangle Surtain.
Tucker is a WR4 with a bit of upside this week, when fantasy owners
are a bit short due to byes.
Even with Davante Adams, this matchup would be a sit for Minshew
in all but the deepest superflex leagues. Unless there’s
absolutely no other QB option available, consider this a scene
out of Jaws and don’t enter these waters.
LV FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
LV FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
LV FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
LV FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
The targets are there for Courtland Sutton. The efficiency is
not. Just 42% of Bo Nix’s passes to Sutton have been completed,
and 3 of Nix’s 4 picks have come when throwing Sutton’s way. Russell
Wilson had a 120 passer rating throwing to Sutton last season,
so none of this is to say that Sutton is the issue here. Truth
is, Sutton is more of a downfield receiver with a QB who is struggling
to throw past the line of scrimmage.
The targets – 36 in 4 games – and Sutton’s
history as a top 50 receiver who can peak in the top 30, if not
top 20, command that he stays rostered, and a matchup against
a Raiders team that may be shorthanded across the board, make
Sutton an odd WR4 with upside this week. He’s risky, though,
considering the lack of efficiency on throws from Nix and the
possibility that the Broncos keep it on the ground against a Raiders
team that has given up 5.1 yards per rush this season.
With 40 rushes for 129 yards, Javonte Williams enters Week 5
in an offense that seems to going nowhere. His 12 receptions for
80 yards does help, but he hasn’t found the endzone. Enter
the Raiders, who have given up the 8th most points per game to
running backs, and a game plan that will that could produce a
break out opportunity for Williams. This is enough to make him
a flex on a normal week, but arguably in a short-handed week due
to byes, he’s a RB2, at least “for one night –
or day – only”.
Bo Nix is had negative 7 yards passing in the first half of last
week’s game. The Raiders are a bit banged up (DE Maxx Crosby,
CB Divine Deablo), but are far from the worst defense in the league
and Nix has just 1 touchdown pass in four games. He should be
learning from the Broncos sideline, but just because they are
putting him out there to suffer doesn’t mean you have too as well.
He should only start this week in a world where Gardner Minshew
is your only other option.
Kyler Murray had a significant step back against an extremely
beatable Commanders pass defense last week. It may be that he
was missing his safety blanket, Trey McBride, who should return
this week. Meanwhile, the 49ers defense has been tough against
opposing quarterbacks. With the likes of Nick Bosa breathing down
their throats, this is no surprise.
Yet it’s important to note that, outside of facing a raging Sam
Darnold, the 49ers faced Aaron Rodgers in his first game back
from a major injury, a short-handed Matthew Stafford, and Jacoby
Brissett. Murray, despite last week’s disappointment, is still
a more difficult assignment for the Niners then most of their
opposing QB’s have been thus far, certainly when coupled with
his top two weapons.
Murray has been respectable against the Niners in his career
– posting about 19 points per game. With Jalen Hurts and Jared
Goff both on bye, it’s thinner at quarterback than normal, ensuring
that Murray is still to be looked at as a QB1 in Week 5.
Despite Murray’s struggles last week, the one person he maintained
significant rapport with was Marvin Harrison Jr. The 2nd generation
(emerging) star has now found the end zone in three straight games.
The 49ers have been only middling against wideouts this year,
despite facing the Jets essentially without Mike Williams, the
Vikings without Jordan Addison, the Rams without Cooper Kupp or
Puka Nacua, and the Patriots with their full arsenal of rotational
receivers. Harrison has been a WR1 in fantasy football and should
maintain that status in a short-handed Week 5.
Running back James Conner is coming off his 2nd 100-yard rushing
performance of the season and is currently ranked No.17 among
running backs in fantasy points. He has averaged a respectable
11.6 fantasy points per game against the 49ers defense over the
prior two seasons. This week Conner fits well, as he often does,
slotted in as an RB2.
Dortch did not capitalize on the added available targets while
Trey McBride was sidelined last week, picking up 4 receptions
for 38 yards on 4 targets. With McBride back this week, the strictly
possession receiver isn’t a viable fantasy play in all but
the deepest leagues.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Purdy is ranked No.10 in fantasy points per game and the Cardinals
come to town having allowed the 4th most points to opposing quarterbacks.
A healthier Cardinals offense could make this a bit of a back-and-forth
affair, especially with the 49ers losing interior rusher Javon
Hargrave for the season and the likes of Fred Warner missing practice
to start this week. The formula is ripe for Purdy to be a top
5 fantasy QB in Week 5.
Meanwhile, Deebo Samuel returned last week and recorded a respectable
3-58-0 line in the passing game while also posting 2 rushes for
14 yards. Deebo’s ability to be involved, whether or not
many passes are called for in the game script make him one of
the higher floor plays in fantasy football. Of course, Deebo,
averaging 13 fantasy points per game, has plenty of ceiling and
is a high-end WR2 for this match up.
Jauan Jennings continued to be a firecracker last week, with
3 receptions turned into 88 yards. It is notable that in three
games with Deebo Samuel active, Jennings has averaged just 5 targets
per game. And that’s despite Brandon Aiyuk essentially being
a no-show, thus far. There’s risk every week that Aiyuk
begins to return to form, though obviously there’s also
increasing risk (or reward for Jenning’s owners) that he
doesn’t.
After seeing 10 targets in Week 3, Aiyuk returned to seeing 5
targets in Week 4 – the exact number he’d seen in
each of his first two games this season. He walked away with 2
receptions for 48 yards, and has yet to top the 50-yard mark or
score through four weeks. Right now, Jennings is probably the
better play, because he is clearly making the most of his targets.
Consider him a Flex – albeit a risky one. Aiyuk has fallen
into WR4 territory, at least until he shows that he’s able
to get separation and make plays. Purdy just doesn’t need
to force the ball to Aiyuk on an offense like this.
While Christian McCaffrey continues to deal with his injury issues,
it’s very possible that Jordan Mason owners may hold one of the
league’s top 3 running backs when all is said and done. With just
7 touches in four weeks, Isaac Guerendo is nowhere near consideration
as a start in fantasy football, but is a wise stash for any Mason
(or desperate McCaffrey) owners who can get him.
Right now, the only thing that can keep the leagues’ No.2
overall fantasy receiver from being a must start is an injury.
Malik Nabers suffered a concussion on a late 4th down play last
week, and is not yet on the practice field as of Thursday. He’s
very likely going to miss the game, but watch for updates over
the weekend.
Wan’Dale Robinson has seemingly had his abilities maximized
by Nabers presence. This NFL generation’s Danny Amendola,
Robinson has a career 8.7 yards per catch, so he requires a whole
lot of targets to be regularly productive. With Nabers across
from him, that is exactly what has happened, including 14 last
week (11 receptions). Robinson has yet to catch more than 1 touchdown
in a season (though he did add one rushing TD last year), and
is likely going to have a harder time getting open if Nabers is
inactive. The Giants, as a whole, are going to have a harder time
getting to the red zone. Robinson is worth sitting if Nabers can’t
play; otherwise, he’s a Flex play.
Despite the whole world seemingly being against him, Daniel Jones
has started to get a rhythm going, especially with Nabers and
Robinson. But, with Nabers potentially sitting out this weekend,
this isn’t the time to put Jones in your lineup. The Seahawks
have been tough against the pass, and the Giants just don’t
have enough depth in the receiving room to support Jones without
their first-round pick. He’s best to sit, unless Nabers
manages to hit the field.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
The only mark on Metcalf’s Week 4 performance was a lost
fumble. That, of course, is an aberration. Metcalf remains the
alpha in this offense, and a WR1-lock.
Geno has turned into the high-volume QB that some suspected he
might become with Pete Carroll having been replaced as head coach.
So far, Smith leads the league in attempts (159) and passing yards
(1182). His 4-to-4 touchdown to interception ratio is the only
reason he’s not higher than 8th among quarterbacks in fantasy
points per game.
Enter a Giants team that could struggle to put up a challenge
this week, but also hasn’t been the easiest on QBs. They have
yet to give up more than 18.4 points to a QB, despite facing Sam
Darnold, Jayden Daniels and Dak Prescott. Darnold and Daniels
each had their low outputs against the Giants (16.6 and 13.4,
respectively). With the addition of Brian Burns, New York’s pass
rush has been ferocious. Smith is a borderline QB1 in a matchup
where volume may be an unnecessary risk.
The Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett transition remains in
a holding pattern (or a work-in-progress, which ever phrase you
prefer) for another week. The Seahawks high volume passing attack
had both JSN and Lockett very involved last week (12 and 9 targets),
but neither broke 10 fantasy points on the day. Each have only
one fantasy performance over 10 points through four weeks, despite
the Geno and the Seahawks leading the league in yards passing.
The encouraging side is that Smith-Njigba has now seen 12 or
more targets in two of his four games, and Lockett has seen at
least 7 in three of four games. The issue may be that the Giants
will struggle to complete, and the Seahawks will get run-heavy.
Smith-Njigba is an especially boom-or-bust laden Flex option this
week, and Lockett is a higher, but not totally safe floor option.
Love had a rocky first game back from injury, throwing 3 interceptions
against the Vikings last week. Yet, fantasy football wise, he
scored 32.2 points and is first in points per game among any quarterback
with at least two starts this year. Across the ball, the mighty
have fallen and the Rams have become a ghost town defense, allowing
8 passing touchdowns against just 1 interception. Look for a sharper
Love this week, and a more efficient performance against the Rams.
He’s arguably the top QB play in Week 5.
Running back Josh Jacobs has yet to score a touchdown, which
is why he’s 26th in fantasy points despite having 381 yards
from scrimmage through four weeks. Jacobs’ snap count has
slipped the last two weeks – 57%, after 70% over the first
two. He has been a bit banged up recently, and it’s reasonable
that the Packers will manage his workload until he’s a 100%.
The Rams, having already given up over 500 yards and 5 rushing
touchdowns, may be an elixir – at least to Jacob’s end zone woes.
D’Andre Swift was having a nightmare season before facing the
Rams defense last week, and he broke out in a big way (26 fantasy
points). Roshon Johnson scored, as well. Somehow, in Week 3, Jordan
Mason didn’t find the end zone against the Rams, but James Conner,
David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs previously did. Jacobs is certainly
getting paid to be in this class of these backs, so expect some
scoring opportunities this week for the Packers RB1. He’s an RB1
candidate for your roster too.
Dontayvion Wicks has literally been an all-or-nothing option
through the first four weeks of the season. Last week he turned
13 targets into 78 yards and 2 touchdowns. Wicks has an alarmingly
low 36.4% catch rate through four games, and while Jordan Love
being back in the helm will help with that, Wicks himself has
been the main culprit with 4 drops in the early going. Wicks is
on the favorable side of being a boom-or-bust Flex candidate against
a Rams defense that’s giving up nearly 15 yards per reception
to opposing receivers.
Romeo Doubs has seen 7.5 targets a game in Love’s two starts,
and had 4 receptions in each contest. With Christian Watson banged
up and the Rams defense in town, Doubs can be explored as a Flex
this week, as well. If you’re looking for a safe floor rather
than boom or bust Flex, ride with Doubs over Wicks.
While running back Josh Jacobs’ snaps are managed, Emanuel
Wilson continues to see 10-12 touches over the last two weeks.
Against the Rams defense, that reasonably puts him in the Flex
conversation as well for Week 5.
Fade: N/A
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Atwell has finished as WR31 and WR32 in the last two weeks
without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. He has been the one Ram receiver
showing fantasy value in a gutted offense. The snap rate has come
up substantially – with a highly desirable 90% last week. Atwell
also moves around enough behind the line of scrimmage to be able
to avoid Packers stellar corner Jaire Alexander much of the time,
a critical trait to being able to succeed in this matchup. Atwell
has a good chance to repeat as a WR3, again, and is your best
Rams’ wide receiver option at Flex.
Hard times continue for Matthew Stafford. The Packers’
defense has intercepted 8 passes while Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua
remain inactive. Stafford is a deep start only in another tough
spot.
Demarcus Robinson has not surpassed the 2-reception mark since
Week 1, when he had 4 receptions. His target totals have shrunk
away in what seemed to be a greater opportunity, having just 7
total targets in the last two weeks sans Kupp. It’s hard
to imagine things improving against Alexander and the Packers.
He’s a hard fade in Week 5.
Dallas’ running game is ranked dead last after the first month
of the season, averaging just 75.3 yards per game and 3.5 yards
per carry. The offseason signing of Ezekiel Elliott looks like
a bust with the veteran lagging behind Dowdle each of the last
three weeks in terms of usage. Most recently, Dowdle logged 12
touches, 61 yards, and a TD in the club’s Thursday night win over
the Giants. In that same game, Elliott had six touches for 24
yards. Dowdle’s ascension into the nominal RB1 role for Dallas
brings a level of fantasy relevance with it, though the Steelers
are a tough nut to crack, bringing the third-ranked run defense
(86.6 yards allowed per game) to this Week 5 matchup. You can
use Dowdle as a flex play, but that should be his ceiling.
With Brandin Cooks (knee) sidelined by an infection in his knee,
Tolbert should move up the pecking order behind Lamb and Ferguson.
The former third-round pick is second on the team in receiving
yards (160) and third in receptions (13), so he was already making
more plays than Cooks (9-91-1 on the year). Counting on a largely
unknown commodity against a tough defense like Pittsburgh is inadvisable,
however, with the Steelers tied for eighth in the league against
the pass (174.5 yards per game). Even with Cooks out, Tolbert
isn’t worth taking a chance on.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Relegated to game manager status during Pittsburgh’s 3-0
start, Fields was finally asked to make some plays last Sunday
when the Steelers found themselves down 17 points against the
Colts. While the comeback ultimately fell a little short, the
numbers were a reminder of what Fields was capable of during his
time in Chicago: 312 yards and 1 TD through the air, and 55 yards
and 2 TDs on the ground. While Dallas was much better last Thursday
night, don’t forget how much success the Saints and Ravens
had against them in the running game. Granted, Fields isn’t
on Lamar Jackson’s level overall, but he’s right there
in terms of running ability, and Jackson ran for 87 yards and
a TD in Week 3. Fields offers QB1 upside on Sunday Night Football.
Much like it is in Dallas, the Steelers’ passing attack
has one receiver at the top followed by a solid tight end. In
Pittsburgh’s case, that’s Freiermuth. Now in his fourth
season, the Penn State product is coming off a disappointing season
in which he managed 32 catches for 308 yards and 2 TDs -- he averaged
a 62-615-5 line over his first two years. He’s off to a
decent start, though, with 17 receptions for 156 yards and a TD
through four games. The Cowboys couldn’t stop the Giants
from zoning in on two players, with Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale
Robinson combining for 29 of Daniel Jones’ 40 targeted balls,
so why couldn’t Pickens and Freiermuth see similar attention
in Week 5? With the tight end position in such bad shape, this
is at least a situation with potential.
Rumor has it that wide receiver Chris Olave could receive target
competition from Davante Adams in the near future. But that will
not be a threat this week. Olave is coming off of a season high
10 targets and three-straight games with over 80 yards receiving.
He’s a reliable WR2 virtually every week, and this one should
be no exception.
The Saints have seemed intent on running Kamara – who has
never had more than 240 carries in his career – into the
ground, as the end of his contract nears. Kamara had a whopping
26 carries last week, and is tied with King Derrick Henry in carries
(80), thus far. Kamara’s 97 touches are tied with 49er’s
bulldog Jordan Mason. The result? Kamara is first in fantasy points
among all running backs in 2024.
The Chiefs welcome the Saints to town presenting a significant
challenge. They’ve given up the fewest fantasy points to opposing
running backs in the entire league, despite having faced four
top 24 fantasy rushers - Derrick Henry, Zack Moss, Bijan Robinson,
J.K. Dobbins. No back has had more than 46 yards rushing against
the Chiefs, and Bijan Robinson’s Week 3 performance (12.2 fantasy
points) is the only output that has produced better than RB30
results.
What further complicates the seemingly slam dunk status of Kamara
besides being banged up and facing the stifling Chiefs is that
Kendre Miller is back at practice, and there is a possibility
he suits up this week, likely biting into Kamara’s workload. Kamara,
of course, is still a must start, but expectations should be tempered,
considering the circumstances. He’s much more in the RB2 conversation
this week than RB1, and owners may want to consider trading him
now, while his stock is peaking.
Carr’s exciting start seemed unsustainable, both due to
it coming on the backs of just 39 pass attempts over two games,
and based on a long history of being a QB2 in fantasy football.
After looking like The Greatest Show on Turf, Version 2 in the
league’s first two weeks, the Saints have returned to their
gritty, largely conservative style that suits their roster. Carr
is likely to remain a QB2 most weeks going forward, including
in this tilt against the Chiefs.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
And there is life. Sans a now-IR’d Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce
put up 7-89-0 on 9 targets last week, giving breath to his season.
The Saints, meanwhile, are middling against TE’s but expect them
to smother Kelce as much as possible and see if Mahomes can make
Xavier Worthy and company beat them. It’s difficult to say whether
Kelce has the abilities to beat a gameplan focused on him, especially
against a defense like the Saints, but he’s the No.1 target now
and the tight end position is not producing a lot of gems at the
moment, making Kelce a good start.
Xavier Worthy may now carry the burden of being the number 1
wideout in the Chiefs offense. Is his ready? Probably not. But
he proved again last week on a 54-yard touchdown that he can make
a big play at any moment. He hasn’t exceeded 4 targets in
a game which indicates limited route ability, so don’t expect
him to turn into Rashee Rice. He could even have a downturn in
facing opponent’s top corners. The upside is that the Chiefs
will likely get creative in getting him the ball – especially
with his rushing abilities (5-39-1, thus far). He’s likely
going to remain boom-or-bust early in his career, but with a little
less boom and a little less bust as he receives a bigger focus
of the offense and opposing defenses. He’s in the flex conversation
for Week 5.
Running back Kareem Hunt capitalized on a Carson Steele fumble
and rode it to 17 touches and 85 yards last week. He did not score,
and even if Hunt sees this type of action going forward, it appears
that the Chiefs may have increased trouble getting into the red
zone. We also don’t know if Steele has landed completely in the
dog house, or not, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire may return this week,
as well. It’s a muddy situation on an offense whose wheels are
getting stuck in the mud. Hunt is a major risk to start, having
some upside but also a potentially very low floor.
This is a shocking thing to have to print, but if you have a
viable QB2 in a solid matchup, he’s worth a start over Patrick
Mahomes this week. Mahomes was barely a QB1 last year with Travis
Kelce just starting to fade and Rashee Rice emerging. Kelce, despite
last week, looks further faded and Rice is now out. While Xavier
Worthy is a nice addition, some of how he helps (rushing) is not
going to aid Mahomes’ production.
The Chiefs QB has only been a mid-range QB2 even with Rice available,
and honestly has struggled with accuracy, as well (78% on target
rate despite an extremely short 5.6 air yards per attempt). Coupled
with facing a defense that has allowed just 1 passing touchdown
against 6 picks (Mahomes has 5 thus far), he’s best to sit,
if you have an alternate option.
Turning from the shocking to what practically goes without saying,
no Chiefs receiver beyond Rice and Worthy have proven themselves
worth consideration when opportunity has presented itself over
the last two years, and that’s unlikely to change versus
a tough Saints defense.
Carson Steele’s 2nd fumble of the year may have unfortunately
cost him an opportunity to hold the reins in the Chiefs backfield.
With three veteran running backs as other options – assuming
Edwards-Helaire does return – Steele’s 15 minutes
may be up, at least as a rookie. He’s not startable in virtually
any format this week.
