This coming season will mark the 11th year I have participated
in The
Huddle Expert Auction League. Over the first 10 seasons, FF
Today has made the six-team playoff every time (last year's team
was a No. 1 seed for the second straight time) and advanced to
the championship game in seven of the last nine years - winning
it all for the third time. Suffice it to say my approach
has proven to be effective.
This year’s draft was held on August 6 - two weeks earlier
than last season and at least one week earlier than usual - so
keep that date in mind as you review the prices below (both the
price each player went for and the value at which I set for him).
Below, you will find the values I used to prioritize the players
and the rationale I used in selecting my team.
Pre-draft
Due to how much earlier the draft was this year and the fact
I had just finished my first Big Board less than 24 hours earlier,
it's fair to say this is the least prepared I have felt entering
an auction draft since probably the first time I participated
in one back in 2009. In other words, I had a plan formulated but
no time to actually test it out.
The plan entering this particular auction was securing one of
my top three backs (Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey or Saquon Barkley), another potential high-end RB1 at a discount price (someone
like Todd Gurley or Dalvin Cook who has overall RB1 upside but
was cheaper than usual for obvious reasons) and a top-end WR1.
I also wanted either Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz or George Kittle,
although securing either one of them was less important to me
than satisfying my first three wishes.
Kamara was generally regarded as the fourth-best option at running
back in July and early August drafts. Since he's the top player
on my Big Board, it was a no-brainer to target him since he should
come the cheapest of the four top backs. Short of landing Kelce
or Kittle, I wanted to spend less than $15 at tight end. Given
the depth at quarterback, I hoped I could show enough restraint
to pay less than $10.
Each year, I also make it a point to pay less than my valuation
on just about every player, knowing the depth at receiver will
allow me to find a bargain or two. Ideally, I’ll come away
from a draft with two surefire starters at running back and another
mid-priced player I believe will be an RB2 to use as my flex,
but it doesn’t always work that way.
Although it is a departure from conventional auction-draft strategy,
I’ve never been a big fan of setting pre-draft positional
budgets – such as spending 40 percent of my budget at receiver
or $80 at running back. My method: isolate the players I want
the most, highlight them on my spreadsheet and keep a record of
how much a player goes for a little bit lower on the page. I stay
true to my valuations with very few exceptions and stick with
that "preferred" list of players as long as possible.
A list of 300-plus players can be daunting, especially when trying
to research how much players in a certain tier went for with no
more than 10 or 15 seconds to make a decision, so it makes a ton
of sense to focus in on about 50.
The Draft
Players with bolded names are ones I specifically selected
before the draft as players I was targeting. The key
is picking players from several different tiers and expected cost
valuations.
Below you will find the actual prices that secured a player’s
services (Act $) and the price I valued them before the draft
(My $). A dash in the first column reflects the fact a player
was not nominated. The highlight
represents winning bids for FF Today. Finally, I will follow each
position with some brief commentary.
All values are based on a $200 cap and players are organized
by “My $”. All players that were nominated are included,
but I removed a number of players that are unlikely to go in auctions
in leagues with 12 teams and 18-man rosters or for other common-sense
reasons.
Required starters: 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 Flex, 1 K and 1
Defense/Special Teams unit.
Quarterbacks
Actual $
My $
Player
Tm
14
16
Deshaun Watson
HOU
21
16
Patrick Mahomes
KC
12
15
Aaron Rodgers
GB
11
14
Carson Wentz
PHI
3
13
Kyler Murray
ARI
4
12
Cam Newton
CAR
13
12
Andrew Luck
IND
6
11
Russell Wilson
SEA
8
10
Matt Ryan
ATL
3
8
Jameis Winston
TB
13
6
Baker Mayfield
CLE
4
5
Jared Goff
LAR
3
4
Lamar Jackson
BAL
2
3
Dak Prescott
DAL
5
3
Drew Brees
NO
1
3
Ben Roethlisberger
PIT
1
2
Mitch Trubisky
CHI
1
2
Kirk Cousins
MIN
3
2
Tom Brady
NE
3
2
Philip Rivers
LAC
1
1
Jimmy Garoppolo
SF
-
1
Sam Darnold
NYJ
-
1
Andy Dalton
CIN
-
1
Derek Carr
OAK
-
1
Matthew Stafford
DET
1
1
Josh Allen
BUF
Observations: Unsurprisingly, Patrick Mahomes ($21) set the market at the position. If he can come close
to repeating last season, he's probably worth $7 more than every
other quarterback. However, if he dips to 42 TDs - which is what
I am projecting - and another quarterback such as Deshaun Watson
($14) or Carson Wentz ($11) can rekindle their magic from 2017,
then it's going to be difficult for Mahomes' owner to justify the
price tag. Only six quarterbacks drew a double-digit bid, further
illustrating just how deep owners feel the position is nowadays.
It was a bit surprising to see Andrew Luck ($13) to draw the bid
he did considering he has been dealing with his mysterious lower-body
injury since the spring. Kyler Murray ($3) was a stunner, as my
above valuation suggests. In a league such as this one where quarterbacks
get four points per passing touchdown and six for rushing scores,
the value of an athletic signal-caller like Murray goes up. He comes
with plenty of hype as well, which typically jacks up his price
tag - even among industry analysts.
As the last sentence suggests, I strive for quarterbacks with
the ability to provide at least 200 rushing yards and a few touchdowns
on the ground in leagues such as this one. Short of that, I want
a proven starter with a great supporting cast. While most owners
draft two quarterbacks just to be on the safe side, I think there
is plenty of merit of going with one in a 12-team league - especially
if an owner lands one of the top five options at the position.
Total spent at QB: $17
Running Backs
Actual $
My $
Player
Tm
46
52
Alvin Kamara
NO
49
52
Christian McCaffrey
CAR
51
52
Saquon Barkley
NYG
42
49
David Johnson
ARI
45
48
Ezekiel Elliott
DAL
41
42
James Conner
PIT
40
41
Le'Veon Bell
NYJ
46
38
Dalvin Cook
MIN
37
33
Todd Gurley
LAR
34
31
Joe Mixon
CIN
21
30
Melvin Gordon
LAC
32
30
Kerryon Johnson
DET
33
30
Nick Chubb
CLE
19
29
Devonta Freeman
ATL
30
28
Leonard Fournette
JAC
28
28
Derrick Henry
TEN
26
27
Damien Williams
KC
28
26
Mark Ingram
BAL
13
26
Kenyan Drake
MIA
32
23
David Montgomery
CHI
25
23
Chris Carson
SEA
26
23
Marlon Mack
IND
26
22
Josh Jacobs
OAK
26
22
Aaron Jones
GB
21
19
James White
NE
8
15
Tarik Cohen
CHI
13
15
Sony Michel
NE
17
14
Phillip Lindsay
DEN
9
14
Lamar Miller
HOU
13
12
Miles Sanders
PHI
15
12
Tevin Coleman
SF
8
9
Jordan Howard
PHI
7
8
Jaylen Samuels
PIT
5
8
Rashaad Penny
SEA
7
7
Darrell Henderson
LAR
8
6
Royce Freeman
DEN
11
5
Austin Ekeler
LAC
3
4
Matt Breida
SF
2
4
Justice Hill
BAL
15
4
Latavius Murray
NO
3
5
Dion Lewis
TEN
3
3
LeSean McCoy
BUF
1
3
Giovani Bernard
CIN
3
3
Ronald Jones
TB
1
3
Jerick McKinnon
SF
1
3
Damien Harris
NE
3
3
Kalen Ballage
MIA
1
2
Nyheim Hines
IND
3
2
Alexander Mattison
MIN
1
2
Chris Thompson
WAS
5
2
Derrius Guice
WAS
-
1
Jamaal Williams
GB
1
1
Darwin Thompson
KC
6
1
Adrian Peterson
WAS
-
1
Chase Edmonds
ARI
6
1
Peyton Barber
TB
7
1
Kareem Hunt
CLE
1
1
Mike Davis
CHI
-
1
Theo Riddick
DEN
1
1
Duke Johnson
HOU
3
1
Tony Pollard
DAL
1
1
Frank Gore
BUF
-
1
Ty Montgomery
NYJ
-
1
Jalen Richard
OAK
1
1
Ito Smith
ATL
-
1
Ryquell Armstead
JAC
2
1
Devin Singletary
BUF
-
1
C.J. Anderson
DET
-
1
Andre Ellington
TB
4
1
Justin Jackson
LAC
1
1
Malcolm Brown
LAR
5
1
Carlos Hyde
KC
-
1
Devine Ozigbo
NO
1
1
Rex Burkhead
NE
-
1
Kenneth Dixon
BAL
-
1
Corey Clement
PHI
-
1
Darren Sproles
PHI
-
1
Gus Edwards
BAL
1
1
Benny Snell
PIT
1
1
Darius Jackson
DAL
Observations: Although it is far
from revolutionary, one auction strategy that has served me well
in terms of preparing my pre-draft valuations is taking a look back
to the last 2-3 years of winning auctions, especially at the running
back position. In this particular league, the most elite running
backs rarely attract $50 bids anymore. When an owner can confidently
set his/her ceiling in terms of what the most coveted player at
the position will bring in an auction, it makes the whole process
so much easier. Without fail, I want an elite running back every
year. I also don't want to be the owner setting the market at a
position. As mentioned earlier, I recognized Kamara ($46) would
probably be considered as the fourth-best player available in the
draft, so he was a target. For the second straight year, my top
target was the first player nominated. For the second straight year,
I got my guy. That's another critical point to make about auctions:
find a valuation sheet you trust and don't stray too far away from
those prices, work out some possible scenarios before the draft
and be ready to pounce when a player you like goes from well below
the value you had set for him. Kenyan Drake ($13) was that player
for me at running back; regardless of whether he starts or not,
is there a likely scenario in which he isn't heavily targeted?
Cook ($46) was my primary RB2 target - as that potential RB1
who comes at a discount because of his injury history I mentioned
earlier - after I landed Kamara, but the bidding for him quickly
got out of hand, as he ended up going for the same price as Kamara.
While Cook is definitely poised to explode this year, I would
need to know Ezekiel Elliott ($45) was missing games for sure
before I could justify that price. What made it even odder was
that Cook was the fifth player to come up for bid, two spots ahead
of Elliott. Another curious call by the league had to do with
Melvin Gordon ($21). I'll be the first to admit that I'm not sure
he is worth a first-round pick in fantasy drafts even before he
decided to hold out given his durability issues. But $21? That
was the same price as James White and $11 less than David Montgomery
attracted. It's also $5 less than Marlon Mack, Josh Jacobs and
Aaron Jones. Again, this happened within the first 20 minutes
of the draft, so it's hard to blame it on lack of funds or significant
tier drop. (David Johnson and Joe Mixon were among the backs still
available.)
I quickly shifted gears to Gurley ($37), who may be the one player
I was willing to bend my budgeting rules for. There's no question
he comes with risk, but I maintain - as I have all summer long
- that the Rams would have done more to address the position if
they didn't think Gurley would only be a shell of himself. As
I mentioned earlier this summer, even if we trim 25 percent of
his production across the board (touches, yards, touchdowns, etc.)
in each of the last two years, he still would have finished as
the RB8 in 2018 and RB5 in 2017. I can live with the risk if he
can deliver that kind of production, even if it is only for 10
or 12 games.
Had the draft been held one week later, I may have shifted my
RB2 focus from Gurley to Chris Carson ($25) or Nick Chubb ($33).
It's becoming pretty clear that for as much as the Seahawks drafted
Rashaad Penny to eventually be the man, Carson isn't allowing
it to happen. Chubb's stock got a nice boost once the Duke Johnson
trade to Houston was announced a few days after the draft. Besides
Cook, Montgomery ($32) and Latavius Murray ($15) jump out to me
as the most obvious overpays. Like Cook, Montgomery could easily
live up to his price tag, but he's probably going to need some
help in the form of Mike Davis and/or Tarik Cohen getting hurt.
While I love the talent, I'm not sure Chicago's depth will allow
him to ascend into the Chubb-Mixon-Kerryon Johnson tier this year.
Gridiron Experts admitted he overpaid a bit on Murray in order
to secure some peace of mind with Elliott's situation in limbo.
Then again, if we look back to how much owners were spending for
Mark Ingram last year when everyone knew he would miss four games,
then perhaps Murray could be considered a bit of a value here
after all.
In terms of great values, it's hard not to like single-digit
dollar acquisitions of potential high-end players such as Royce
Freeman ($8), Jaylen Samuels ($7), Penny ($5), Ronald Jones ($3),
Justice Hill ($2) and Duke Johnson ($1). While none of the players
figure to be "league winners," all have reasonably clear
paths to be solid flex plays and could ascend to RB2 status if
things break right.
Total spent at RB: $98
Wide Receivers
Actual $
My $
Player
Tm
48
49
DeAndre Hopkins
HOU
47
48
Julio Jones
ATL
41
46
JuJu Smith-Schuster
PIT
47
46
Davante Adams
GB
41
42
Michael Thomas
NO
34
42
Antonio Brown
OAK
41
40
Odell Beckham Jr.
CLE
40
40
Tyreek Hill
KC
37
38
T.Y. Hilton
IND
33
38
Mike Evans
TB
30
36
Adam Thielen
MIN
34
35
Keenan Allen
LAC
29
34
Amari Cooper
DAL
27
34
Chris Godwin
TB
30
34
Julian Edelman
NE
33
33
Stefon Diggs
MIN
24
31
D.J. Moore
CAR
21
31
Robert Woods
LAR
20
30
Calvin Ridley
ATL
15
29
Tyler Boyd
CIN
14
28
Mike Williams
LAC
24
28
Brandin Cooks
LAR
20
26
Tyler Lockett
SEA
18
26
Kenny Golladay
DET
16
25
Cooper Kupp
LAR
16
23
Allen Robinson
CHI
14
20
Larry Fitzgerald
ARI
14
15
Robby Anderson
NYJ
11
15
Christian Kirk
ARI
20
15
Curtis Samuel
CAR
10
14
Alshon Jeffery
PHI
3
14
Dede Westbrook
JAC
3
13
DeSean Jackson
PHI
21
12
A.J. Green
CIN
9
11
Geronimo Allison
GB
4
10
Anthony Miller
CHI
3
9
Sammy Watkins
KC
10
8
Sterling Shepard
NYG
9
8
Jarvis Landry
CLE
5
8
Marvin Jones
DET
3
6
Trey Quinn
WAS
5
6
Courtland Sutton
DEN
3
6
Jamison Crowder
NYJ
10
6
Dante Pettis
SF
8
6
Keke Coutee
HOU
6
5
Will Fuller
HOU
5
5
Donte Moncrief
PIT
2
4
Michael Gallup
DAL
4
4
Golden Tate
NYG
1
4
Parris Campbell
IND
13
4
Corey Davis
TEN
1
3
D.K. Metcalf
SEA
2
3
Albert Wilson
MIA
2
3
DeVante Parker
MIA
1
3
Kenny Stills
MIA
4
2
Tyrell Williams
OAK
-
2
Mohamed Sanu
ATL
4
2
Devin Funchess
IND
4
2
Emmanuel Sanders
DEN
3
2
John Brown
BUF
2
2
Robert Foster
BUF
2
2
James Washington
PIT
7
2
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
GB
1
1
Cole Beasley
BUF
1
1
Danny Amendola
DET
-
1
Keelan Cole
JAC
1
1
DaeSean Hamilton
DEN
-
1
Nelson Agholor
PHI
-
1
A.J. Brown
TEN
-
1
Antonio Callaway
CLE
-
1
Breshad Perriman
TB
-
1
Josh Doctson
WAS
1
1
Maurice Harris
NE
-
1
John Ross
CIN
1
1
Andy Isabella
ARI
1
1
Trent Taylor
SF
1
1
KeeSean Johnson
ARI
1
1
Marquise Goodwin
SF
-
1
David Moore
SEA
-
1
Tre'Quan Smith
NO
-
1
Adam Humphries
TEN
-
1
Willie Snead
BAL
-
1
Deebo Samuel
SF
-
1
Marquise Brown
BAL
1
1
Miles Boykin
BAL
1
1
Quincy Enunwa
NYJ
-
1
Zay Jones
BUF
-
1
Taylor Gabriel
CHI
-
1
Hunter Renfrow
OAK
1
1
Marqise Lee
JAC
-
1
Chris Conley
JAC
3
1
Josh Gordon
NE
-
1
Randall Cobb
DAL
-
1
Ted Ginn Jr.
NO
-
1
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
PHI
2
1
N'Keal Harry
NE
-
1
Deon Cain
IND
-
1
Mecole Hardman
KC
-
1
Travis Benjamin
LAC
-
1
Jaron Brown
SEA
2
1
Phillip Dorsett
NE
-
1
Ryan Switzer
PIT
-
1
Emmanuel Butler
NO
-
1
Justin Watson
TB
-
1
DJ Chark
JAC
-
1
Jake Kumerow
GB
-
1
Preston Williams
MIA
-
1
Jakobi Meyers
NE
1
1
Paul Richardson
WAS
Observations: It's always fascinating
to see what elite (or near-elite) receivers fall through the cracks
in auctions. Antonio Brown ($34) wasn't a huge shock given his departure
from Pittsburgh and all the drama he has recently brought to the
table. It's a bit more surprising that Mike Evans ($33) and Adam Thielen ($30) didn't go for a bit more given that the former will
be playing for a coach who embraces the vertical passing game more
than perhaps any other coach in the league, while the latter has
been a top-10 fantasy WR in each of the last two seasons.
On the other of the spectrum, A.J. Green drawing a $21 bid when
there is very little certainty he will be ready in September was
an eye-opener. I realize Hill ($40) has been cleared by the NFL,
but I am still treating him very much as a high-risk player. The
degree to which some owners are unfazed by the likelihood of him
either getting himself in hot water again baffles me probably
about as much as my willingness to believe in Gurley baffles everyone
else. The difference between the two cases is there is a limited
number of running backs capable of performing at Gurley's level
even if he only handles 75 percent of his usual workload and/or
misses a few games. I have 15 receivers projected for at least
80 catches, 13 projected for at least 1,100 yards receiving and
five for at least 10 touchdowns. Of course, that's not to say
every one of those players will reach those benchmarks, but there's
a much stronger possibility of it than a similar number of running
backs doing what Gurley is capable of doing - even at 75 percent
of his usual workload.
Given the quality and quantity of potential WR2s this year, there
will inevitably be a few players who draw lower bids than expected.
In this draft, Kenny Golladay ($18), Allen Robinson ($16), Tyler Boyd ($15) and Mike Williams ($14) were some of the more surprising.
Even in an offense that should see depressed volume, Golladay
should live up to his price tag in this draft. Robinson will be
nearly two years removed from ACL surgery by the start of the
season and did some solid work over the second half of 2018 -
highlighted by his 10-143-1 performance in the playoff loss to
the Eagles. Boyd may not be a one-for-one replacement for A.J. Green while the latter recovers, but he should see a healthy amount
of volume regardless. Williams has as good a chance to lead his
position group in touchdowns as anyone.
It seems like there is at least one zero-RB owner in every draft
and this league's advocate has routinely been RotoViz (Stefon Diggs, Hill, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Sammy Watkins, Dede Westbrook,
etc.). It's hard not to like what USA TODAY Sports did at the
position even if he didn't secure one of the recognized elite
options (Geronimo Allison, Chris Godwin, Golladay, Donte Moncrief,
D.J. Moore and Golden Tate). USA TODAY Sports did well to land
Carson, Josh Jacobs and Marlon Mack as his starting backs, making
his team as balanced and deep at the most important positions
as any team in the league. Even with two owners acquiring that
much receiver talent on their teams, there was still plenty left
for the majority of owners though.
Observations: It was pretty much a
given Kelce ($33) was going to be expensive, although I'm not sure
I expected the highest bid I can remember a tight end going for
in this league. While I certainly don't have a problem with paying
up for a tight end who produces like a WR1, the question is whether
2018 is going to become the new normal with Mahomes as his quarterback
or if it was a well-timed career year. I also struggle with Kelce
going for $13 more than Ertz ($20) and more than twice as much as
O.J. Howard ($14), Evan Engram ($13), Jared Cook ($10) and Hunter Henry ($9).
It can be a bit scary to go cheap at tight end when you consider
that at least 25 percent of the owners in a 12-team league will
be starting Kelce, Kittle or Ertz almost every week, but there
is significant talent that will be available cheap at the end
of just about every auction. Delanie Walker ($3) is a steal if
he can go back to being the same dependable option he was prior
to last year's season-ending ankle injury. At his price, it's
worth finding out if he's got one more year left in his 35-year-old
body. It was odd to see Hooper ($2) go so cheap. I'm personally
not a fan of his ability to repeat his overall TE6 finish last
year, but he's still a serviceable starter in my book and a bargain
at that price. The same can probably be said for Mark Andrews
($1).
Darren Waller ($3) has been a consistent target of mine all summer
and will continue to be. David Njoku ($3) has overall TE1 talent,
but is there going to be enough volume in Cleveland? Last but
not least, Chris Herndon ($1) should not be going for a buck in
any league that has an IR spot or two like this league does. He's
a great stash in those leagues and allows owners to free up a
spot on the roster for another high-upside talent before the season
starts.
Total spent at TE: $15
Kickers
Actual $
My $
Player
Tm
5
1
Greg Zuerlein
LAR
2
1
Justin Tucker
BAL
1
1
Wil Lutz
NO
3
1
Harrison Butker
KC
1
1
Ka'imi Fairbairn
HOU
1
1
Robbie Gould
SF
1
1
Stephen Gostkowski
NE
1
1
Jake Elliott
PHI
1
1
Giorgio Tavecchio
ATL
1
1
Mike Badgley
LAC
1
1
Josh Lambo
JAC
1
1
Ryan Succop
TEN
Observations: Year after year, I look
for the same qualities in a kicker. I want someone with a strong
leg in a good offense. Additionally, I often target kickers who
play on teams with good or great defenses since coaches are more
apt to settle for field goals when they are confident their defense
can keep the opponent off the board. Short of that, I want a team
who I believe will have a good offense but bogs down in the red
zone because it lacks a strong running attack. I'm not sure why
I've been able to land Tucker ($2) in as many as "expert"
drafts as I have so far, but he's about as much of a sit-it-and-forget-it
option as there is at the position. I have no problem spending the
extra dollar for him, especially when Zuerlein went for $5 and Butker
for $3.
Total spent at K: $2
Defense / ST
Actual $
My $
Team
6
1
Bears
2
1
Rams
2
1
Chargers
1
1
Broncos
1
1
Vikings
1
1
Cowboys
1
1
Eagles
1
1
Jaguars
1
1
Ravens
1
1
Bills
1
1
Texans
1
1
Panthers
1
1
Patriots
Observations: Almost every year it
seems, someone in this league spends at least $5 on a defense. I
value a rock-solid defense more than most, but owners who bid that
much are paying (and hoping) for roughly 3-4 huge weeks at most,
all while sacrificing a potential handcuff or low-end starter at
another position. Unless a D/ST unit goes on to have a truly historic
year, they are unlikely to yield a good enough return on investment
to be worth that bid. Without having done my matchup analysis on
defenses at the time of this draft, I went with my belief in Vic
Fangio and the impressive talent Denver has at some of the more
important positions (Von Miller, Bradley Chubb and Chris Harris).
Total spent at D/ST: $1
Post-draft
The FFToday team
QB: Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston*
RB: Alvin Kamara, Todd Gurley, Kenyan Drake, Giovani Bernard,
Malcolm Brown
WR: Julio Jones, Larry Fitzgerald, James Washington*, Paris Campbell,
Miles Boykin, Maurice Harris, Danny Amendola
TE: O.J. Howard, Chris Herndon
K: Justin Tucker
D/ST: Denver Broncos
* Since traded for Josh Allen and Anthony Miller
Through about two hours of the draft, I could not have been much
happier. My biggest self-critique at that point was not bidding
more on Smith-Schuster ($41), which would have saved me a few
bucks over Julio Jones ($47). But two momentary lapses in judgment
at quarterback cost me from building the kind of team I was capable
of putting together. To be clear, I have no problem with Watson
(my overall QB2) and Winston (QB10). But spending $17 on the two
of them when I had set my sights on Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson
- who ended up going for $3 apiece - entering the draft made it
nearly impossible to get the WR3 I could have otherwise landed.
That was a bitter pill to swallow late when I did not have enough
left to secure wideouts such as Dede Westbrook or DeSean Jackson.
While I will place some of the blame on not having the time I
would've liked to prepare for this draft, it was still a foolish
mistake to make. Thankfully, if I'm going to enter the season
with a weakness - and every team has one - it would be at my WR3
spot.
I'll admit I was not happy with myself when I realized the impact
my "decision" at quarterback had at receiver. (I feel
I corrected that somewhat via my aforementioned trade, but it's
still a position I should not have put myself in.) Thankfully,
I took a look at last year's draft as I began to write this article
and realized only one of my low-end WR1 selections (Stefon Diggs,
Doug Baldwin and Emmanuel Sanders) from 2018 was still contributing
to my team at the end of the year. Throw in the fact how little
return on investment I got from Rob Gronkowski and it's reasonable
to wonder how my team won the league going away.
Regarding the composition of this team, I'm not sure there's
much to discuss at quarterback. Few will argue Houston and Tampa
Bay should field two of the more explosive offenses in 2019. Of
course, my trade changes things. I'm not a big fan of Allen this
year, so the odds are strong he will be off my roster sooner than
later. I have also started to move away from keeping a backup
quarterback on the roster in recent years anyway, so I may use
Allen's roster spot to add depth at running back or receiver.
There is obvious risk at the running back position. Yet, I'm
not sure I've ever entered a season in this league with a better
trio. Kamara is about as safe as they come at running back because
so many of his touches come as a receiver AND he isn't asked to
carry a heavy load as a runner. RB2s almost always come with some
kind of risk, so if the price I have to pay for potential top-five
production at the position is a surprise inactive or two or four
over the course of the season, that's OK. Show me another back
capable of what Gurley can do.
I was thrilled to get Drake at $13. While owners fret about whether
he will start over Kalen Ballage or not, I'll take my chances
Miami will face plenty of negative game script. I see a cheaper
version of 2018 James White who should get more touches than his
New England counterpart did. I had no intention of nominating
Brown as early as I did and equally surprised no one bid him up.
While handcuffing isn't exactly a goal of mine anymore, securing
Brown makes me feel even better about landing Gurley. Bernard
also strikes me as an underrated option in 2019. It wouldn't surprise
me much if he sees more usage than Darrell Henderson AND I think
he'll be asked to serve as the primary back in the event Mixon
is forced to miss a game or two.
I feel much better about the receiver position now than I did
in the moments following the draft. No one is going to quibble
about Jones as a WR1, especially on a team that has Kamara and
Gurley at running back. The mistake I made with Fitzgerald last
year wasn't taking an older receiver, but one from a team with
a bad offensive line paired with a largely immobile quarterback
and an offensive coordinator with a poor recent track record.
I have no problem with him being my WR2 this year. Getting stuck
with James Washington as my WR3 was what really upset me, even
though I believe Campbell can ascend to that status before the
end of the season. Getting Miller in a trade - trades don't happen
very often in this league - was a big deal for me, as I consider
him to be a viable WR3 right away. Harris is a complete wild-card
who flashed for Washington last year, and he appears to have a
bit of edge to become a starter in New England. We'll see about
that, but he's worth a flier at $1. Amendola was honestly a poor
call on my part when players like Hardman and particularly Sanu
were still on the board. Both went undrafted, however, so I still
have a chance to right that wrong.
The tight end position has long been a sore subject for my team
in this league. I thought I ended it last year by nabbing Rob
Gronkowski, but I was too late to that party. Beginning with my
primary dynasty team this spring, I identified Howard as a player
I believe is capable of making the jump into elite TE1 territory.
Durability has been the only thing to hold him back through his
first two seasons. Even though he is staring at a four-game suspension
to begin the season, Herndon for $1 was another stunner to me.
Not only can I place him on IR to begin the season and open up
a roster spot, but I think he makes for great insurance for Howard.
Tucker is about as good as it gets at kicker, so I should be
set there. The Broncos begin their season with the Raiders, Bears,
Packers, Jaguars, Chargers and Titans. Given the talent and coaching
acumen Denver has, I would be surprised if four of those matchups
weren't favorable. I'm hoping the Broncos will be my defense for
the whole season, but I'll probably revisit where I stand with
them when September ends.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010.
He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football
internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.