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Swimming With The Sharks



By Doug Orth | 8/2/24 |

Not all industry drafts are created equal. The FFPC Pros vs. Joes competition is a special one to be a part of, in part because it attracts some of the best in the fantasy industry but also because of what is at stake. Six industry analysts (Pros) compete against six veteran (and usually highly successful) FFPC players (Joes) in a free best-ball competition for the privilege of gaining a free entry ($2,000 value) into the FFPC Main Event the following season. New this year … the team that scores the highest out of the seven drafts (six live and one slow) will also win a beautiful belt from Trophy Smack.

The biggest difference from a typical fantasy league is that it is a winner-takes-all format. If ever there was a time to cite the immortal Ricky Bobby, Pros vs. Joes is the ultimate "if you ain't first, you're last" competition. Pros vs. Joes is the brainchild of Fantasy Mojo's Darren Armani, who I met for the first time at the King's Classic in 2018 and have competed with ever since. Darren beat me in the title game in the inaugural event when he "reached" for Christian McCaffrey. (Yes, there was a time when drafting CMC at No. 12 was considered a reach.) I won my title in 2020, so all is well between Darren and me now. All kidding aside, I am very appreciative of Darren for continuing to invite me to this event year after year.

Below is a list of the competitors and the order in which we drafted. Players without a site affiliation next to their name are "Joes.”

Pros vs. Joes Draft Board

1. Fantasy Alarm - Howard Bender
2. Kevin Borg
3. FF Mastermind - Michael Nazarek
4. Michael Mann
5. SportsGamblingPodcast.com - Ryan Kramer/Sean Green
6. Ryan Santos
7. FantasyPoints.com - John Hansen
8. David Coman
9. FFToday - Doug Orth
10. Don Terminello
11. 4for4.com - John Paulsen
12. Robert Abbott/Mark Verrett

FFPC Rules & Scoring

The FFPC uses tight end premium scoring (1.5 points per reception), so it is common for the elite tight ends (such as Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews) to come off the board within the first 15-20 picks. Most teams have at least one tight end in place by around the sixth round.

Please click on the draft board link here or above so you can follow along. (It beats having to type out 240 names and/or posting 12 20-man teams on this page.) This draft - the last of six live drafts in this competition - was held on Tuesday, July 30. I will repeatedly refer to the two drafts that immediately proceeded it (on July 28 and 29) to give readers some idea of player "value" in this format.

Starting lineup requirements (eight starters): QB (1), RB (2), WR (2), TE (1), RB/WR/TE Flex (2)

1. Howard Bender - Fantasy Alarm

What I like: Bender nailed his first five picks without question. Drake London had not fallen lower than 2.07 in either of the previous two drafts, nor had Mark Andrews fallen into the third round. Mixon might be considered a slight reach at 4.12 by some (6.02 and 5.08 in the earlier drafts), but he is the unquestioned featured back in what could be the best offense in the league in 2024. Regardless of what many may think of his efficiency, injury is probably the only thing that will keep him from rushing for 1,000-plus yards and 10 touchdowns. CMC managers can typically only dream of such production from their RB2 at the end of the fourth round. Lamar Jackson is the reigning league MVP and the poster child for what managers should be looking for in a scoring system that awards four points per passing touchdown. Diontae Johnson will be a target of mine in many drafts over the next few weeks and should easily outperform his draft slot in this league (WR37). Chuba Hubbard was not only a solid value pick at 13.01, but he is also the obvious handcuff to Jonathon Brooks (selected by Bender at 8.12).

What I did not like: If Bender's team does not challenge for the league crown, it will likely be due to one of three reasons:

1) the risk of injury to CMC is real coming off a season in which he touched the ball 417 times (including the playoffs). Bender confirmed to me the day after (on the podcast I host along with JJ Wenner) that he was eyeing Elijah Mitchell at the end of the 14th. He could have avoided that issue entirely by ignoring Hunter Henry at the previous turn (he already had Andrews);

2) Jayden Reed and Brooks were drafted to be his primary flex options. While Brian Thomas and Rashid Shaheed will deliver spike weeks to supplement their production, there are enough questions about Reed's involvement in the Packers' two-receiver packages and Brooks' ability to contribute at a high level before November to make me feel uneasy;

3) there was not much need for Bender to take Hayden Hurst or Greg Dulcich in the later rounds - especially after landing a solid floor option such as Henry.

2. Kevin Borg

What I like: At 1.02, a CeeDee Lamb-Dak Prescott stack is not only realistic but can be potentially very profitable. If Kyren Williams can come reasonably close to repeating last season, it will be difficult for any other manager to match the firepower Borg has at RB1 and WR1. It also does not get much better for someone picking in the first half of the first round to load up with two top-10 tight ends in a tight end premium format (Kyle Pitts and Jake Ferguson). There is also plenty of spike week potential with Marquise Brown, Rome Odunze and Tyler Lockett, as well as some built-in protection for a Keenan Allen injury (with the selection of Odunze).

What I did not like: To be kind, Borg's running back room is a house of cards. Williams has not come close to playing a full season yet. Cook is being overdrafted so far this season in my opinion. It is not so much that he will fail to live up to being a solid RB2, but he has volume and touchdown-upside concerns. There is not enough of a difference between someone like Cook and Aaron Jones to justify a 3-4 round gap, especially when Cook figures to cede goal-line opportunities to Ray Davis and Josh Allen. He also is not built to hold up to another 281 touches. Beyond his two starters at running back, only Vidal stands out as a potential starter down the road. My faith in this team would have been enhanced with the selection of Blake Corum to serve as a handcuff to Williams.

3. FF Mastermind - Michael Nazarek

What I like: There may only be one or two teams capable of going toe-to-toe with Nazarek's top three receivers. Tyreek Hill is a threat for 1,500 yards and 10-plus touchdowns, Mike Evans is easily capable of topping 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns again and Amari Cooper should also be good for 1,000 yards and 6-8 scores. Being able to pair that trio with Derrick Henry makes Nazarek incredibly dangerous. As a whole, this team's collection of receivers may be the best in the league. For drafters who miss out on one of the clear top four or five quarterbacks, a Kyler Murray - Justin Herbert pairing is about as good as it gets - especially in best ball. Mayfield is a luxury but more than capable of delivering a couple of spike weeks as well.

What I did not like: Without question, Nazarek's biggest concern with this team should be at tight end. Some drafters might view the combination of Dallas Goedert and Dalton Schultz as a beautiful low-end TE1 pairing, but there is also a distinct possibility that it lacks upside. Most tight ends need to score around seven or eight touchdowns and/or be one of the top two targets on their team to have a chance to push for high-end TE1 status. Neither of the aforementioned tight ends can make that claim. Goedert has not played a full season since 2018, never topped 60 catches and never scored more than five touchdowns. He will deliver spike weeks, but there is more of a low floor than people realize. Schultz is tied to a great offense, but he is at best the fourth-best option in Houston. With that said, the success of this team will likely rest on Rachaad White's shoulders. If he can improve on last year's efficiency, hold off Bucky Irving and come relatively close to matching last year's workload, this can be a championship team. Likewise, can he get a repeat of the 2022 season from Tony Pollard? There is a decent chance both backs will share more touches than people realize.

4. Michael Mann

What I like: Mann had to be thrilled about getting a pair of stud receivers like Chris Olave and D.J. Moore after starting his draft with Bijan Robinson and De'Von Achane. He continued to add high-floor and high-upside receivers in Chris Godwin and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The ability to start either David Montgomery or JSN at the second flex spot figures to be a luxury not many managers in this league will have. Even if he gets nothing from the running backs he selected after Montgomery, Mann's first three running backs may be the best trio of backs in the league. Jalen Hurts was a great value at 5.04 (4.12 and 4.07 previously) and will likely be my overall QB1 heading into draft season.

What I did not like: Mann drafted one of the best teams in this league, even if he was stuck with an auto-pick of Caleb Williams at 9.04. He undoubtedly realized early on that his biggest weakness was likely going to be at tight end, so he smartly attacked that position with five picks - all of whom possess some upside. The best of the bunch entering the season is Cole Kmet, but he is - at best - the fourth option in the passing game in Chicago. Kmet will also likely split time with Gerald Everett in what could be a slow-paced offense if new OC Shane Waldron's history in Seattle is any indication. There is a distinct possibility that even with throwing a bunch of darts at the position, Mann may struggle to get one TE1 performance from his team more than half of the time.

5. SportsGamblingPodcast.com - Ryan Kramer/Sean Green

What I like: SportsGamblingPodcast.com has to be happy with its first two running backs. Breece Hall should push Christian McCaffrey for overall RB1 honors, while Josh Jacobs is not getting the respect he deserves. Jacobs was a poor bet in fantasy last season given his contract situation and late report to camp. He finds himself in a better offense this season, so as long as he is trusted with the same kind of workload as the man he replaces in Green Bay (Aaron Jones), he is well worth an investment in the late fourth round. Josh Allen could struggle to finish as a top-five fantasy quarterback this season, but I recognize I may be wrong about how much the Buffalo offense will struggle in 2024 - at least relative to the last three or four seasons. Davante Adams (WR10), George Pickens (WR26) and Calvin Ridley (WR33) should each outperform their draft slot, even if none of them are tied to elite offenses.

What I did not like: Kramer and Green essentially followed the same model as Mann at tight end. SportsGamblingPodcast.com did a better job of selecting high-upside tight ends in my opinion, but it is still a hard sell to enter a season hoping for Mike Gesicki or Chig Okonkwo to carry the torch in a tight end premium league until Mark Andrews or Dalton Kincaid go down - if that even happens. To their credit, if Andrews misses significant time again this year, then Kramer and Green will look like geniuses for selecting Isaiah Likely. As he proved late last season, Likely can be a stud if he is a full-time player. The selection of Allen at 3.05 was a bit high compared to the previous drafts (4.05 and 4.06), especially if I end up being right about Allen falling off a bit.

6. Ryan Santos

What I like: If a manager is going to start his/her draft with three straight receivers, that position should be the strength of his/her team. Santos could not have asked for a much better start in that regard by landing Justin Jefferson, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Jaylen Waddle. His receiver group is the best in the league (or at least should be). George Kittle was the right pick at the right time at 4.07 as the last of the tight ends who has a realistic shot of competing with the recognized studs at the position. Patrick Mahomes should be expected to bounce back in a big way in 2024 and had to feel like a gift at 5.06. Santos also had to feel great about being able to pair up two proven commodities such as James Conner with Aaron Jones after ignoring the running back position over the first five rounds.

What I did not like: Santos can easily make the case that he has the best team in the league. With that said, he needs Conner and Jones to avoid injuries AND the age curve. That could be a tall order. Santos did well to land Tyjae Spears and Devin Singletary to back them up, but neither player figures to carry the RB2 torch week after week if Conner and/or Jones miss time. Santos likely does not need Xavier Worthy to be anything more than a spike week option as his second flex, but he is someone else who is being overdrafted this summer. As great as Mahomes is, how much can we ask from a rookie receiver who has to compete with Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown for targets? While I recognize Spears and Singletary can provide a solid floor at the second flex spot, they may be needed to fill in for Conner and Jones.

7. FantasyPoints.com - John Hansen

What I like: Hansen built one of the most balanced rosters in the league. Ja'Marr Chase has as good of a chance as any receiver to be the overall WR1 at season's end. Michael Pittman Jr. should easily outperform his slot in this draft (WR23), while Christian Kirk (WR27) should live up to his draft slot at the very least. Saquon Barkley, Travis Etienne and Rhamondre Stevenson rivals Mann's trio of running backs as the best in this league. Jameson Williams, Marvin Mims and Rashod Bateman are the kind of cheap "shot players" fantasy managers should draft in best ball once they have built a solid foundation. Joe Burrow and Kirk Cousins are both coming back from serious injuries, but their price points in this draft make a ton of sense given how Hansen spent his early picks. Tyler Conklin would have been a serious consideration for me as my TE1 around 10.06 had I not opted to build my team the way I did.

What I did not like: This is one of the best teams in the league. My only quibble with it may be the selection of Luke Musgrave at 11.07, although Hansen likely opted to go with the theoretical upside Musgrave possesses after landing his high-floor option in Conklin one round earlier.

8. David Coman

What I like: The pairing of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jonathan Taylor gives Coman one of the best RB1-WR1 combinations in the league. It is also hard to find fault with selecting a tight end coming off a 100-catch season in Evan Engram at 3.08 in a tight end premium league. Tee Higgins is a very good bet to finish higher than WR28, while the combination of Rashee Rice and Christian Watson should allow Coman to win the second flex battle most weeks. Pairing Jordan Love with Trevor Lawrence should allow Coman to remain competitive at quarterback most weeks. While I question how much fantasy upside the Cowboys' backfield has this season, Coman did well to make sure he got most of that production by selecting Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle in consecutive rounds. T.J. Hockenson may lack the same upside in 2024 he had at this time last year (due to injury and the change at quarterback), but the 11th round seems like a good time to bet on a player who has a shot to be a difference-maker in November or December.

What I did not like: One of the main reasons why it is hard to buy into managers investing so heavily into the receiver position early is that it can result in being forced to rely on someone like Zack Moss as a RB2. He may perform at that level if he is the primary ball carrier in Cincinnati, but that is far from a given. In fact, it sounds as though Chase Brown will be given every chance to win the job (and he would be my bet to do so). A lesser concern is relying on Zay Flowers as a WR2. Players like Amari Cooper and D.J. Moore - selected later in the fourth round - are better bets to top 1,000 yards and/or score 10 touchdowns than Flowers.

Garrett Wilson

9. Doug Orth - FFToday

What I like: As long as Aaron Rodgers stays healthy this year, Garrett Wilson is one of the best bets to finish as the overall WR1. There is no real threat standing between him and a 30 percent target share in 2024 and we already know what is possible when Rodgers has an unquestioned No.1 receiver. It was stunning to see three tight ends come off the board before Travis Kelce fell in my lap. Yes, he is no longer in his prime, but how much of last year was the result of him not being healthy and Kansas City not being able to stretch the field? Kelce has not finished lower than TE4 (last year) in FFPC scoring since 2015! Stefon Diggs is no longer in his prime and should not be expected to perform like the WR1 he has been for the last few years in Buffalo as a 30-year-old in Houston, but he still stands to be one of the biggest steals in drafts this season. As a player who should be expected to start over Tank Dell in two-wide sets and move into the slot in three-wide sets, Diggs may have the rare distinction of being the best receiver on a team who consistently draws the easiest matchup.

As I noted during the live draft coverage, there are two quarterbacks after the recognized top quarterbacks capable of "breaking fantasy" this season. I landed both of them (Anthony Richardson and Jayden Daniels). This line of thinking also led me to select Justin Fields. Although Richardson and Daniels are injury risks per se, both are also capable of rushing for 1,000 yards in up-tempo offenses. I love the upside I found during the double-digit rounds at running back (Brian Robinson Jr., Jerome Ford, Blake Corum and Tyrone Tracy). Pat Freiermuth may seem like an unnecessary pick for a team with Kelce on it, but there is logic behind it: Freiermuth is easily one of the top two targets on his team and new OC Arthur Smith's offenses have typically targeted the tight end position very heavily. A 70-catch season with seven or eight touchdowns is easily doable. That should play very well in this tight end premium format. Although it is a minor consideration, I love the upside of Jalen McMillan and Andrei Iosivas. Each one will be a factor this season.

What I did not like: This draft was all about upside for me. Richardson and Daniels are more likely to miss time due to injury than most given the way they play. It is questionable whether I did enough at receiver after Diggs, who may be more of a question mark than I want to acknowledge. My team's ability to win the league and capture the overall points title will depend heavily on whether Najee Harris and/or Robinson successfully live up to my expectations as low-end RB2s AND if one of my rookie running backs (Corum, Tracy or Audric Estime) pay off. In a worst-case scenario, Ford should be able to deliver RB2 production over the first half of the season as Nick Chubb works his way back to full health. If Harris loses more work to Jaylen Warren than expected and Robinson loses more work to Austin Ekeler than expected, then my team is likely sunk. If I am right and both backs are in line for 250-plus touches, the upside of this team is immense and a strong contender for the overall points title.

10. Don Terminello

What I like: Terminello built his roster much in the same way as I did, and I can only imagine we took turns sniping each other (or removing any mystery about who to take between two players). A.J. Brown was a strong consideration for me at 1.09. Cooper Kupp will likely prove to be a great value as the overall WR20 in this draft. Alvin Kamara and Zamir White is a very solid pairing at running back considering how long he waited on the position, while Nick Chubb is a great upside selection at 10.03. (He would have been my pick at 10.04 for the very same reason.) Jaleel McLaughlin is another upside selection that might bridge the gap between the start of the season and when Chubb is truly ready to roll. I would have likely selected Josh Downs at 12.04 - despite loving my Blake Corum pick - and believe he will end up being one of the best second flex options in this league. C.J. Stroud may not have the rushing upside that I feel is so critical at quarterback in this format, but would anyone be surprised if he throws for 4,500 yards and 35 touchdowns with his new supporting cast? The industry seems to be down on Geno Smith, but I think we see more of the 2022 version than the 2023 version in what should be a pass-happy offense under new OC Ryan Grubb.

What I did not like: It is hard - but not impossible - to find holes in Terminello's team. While Father Time is undefeated, someone will need to slay the king at tight end (Kelce) first before I take an upstart tight end like Dalton Kincaid over him. Kincaid's splits with and without Dawson Knox in the lineup last year were scary for a tight end being drafted this high. Selecting Kelce at 2.03 would have been the safer (and likely prudent) choice. Terminello's running back group has significant upside, but the floor is potentially scary. Kamara may not be a great fit in an offense that wants to run a lot of outside zone. He also has age concerns to boot. Furthermore, how much will Kendre Miller eat into his volume? White is a trendy breakout pick and should have no issue with volume, but I would argue his upside is what Najee Harris has already established as his floor. There is just a bit too much uncertainty in Terminello's running back room for my liking.

11. John Paulsen - 4for4

What I like: Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs is a heavy investment into one team, but the Lions are one offense where it makes sense to do that. While I have my doubts that he can match his record-breaking rookie season with Detroit likely to get Gibbs and Jameson Williams more work in the passing game, LaPorta is the one player who has proven he can challenge Kelce for overall TE1 honors. Paulsen also loaded up with quality runners in Kenneth Walker, D'Andre Swift and Raheem Mostert, seemingly ensuring that he will get at least two running backs who post starter-worthy numbers just about every week. Being able to secure three quality options at receiver like Brandon Aiyuk, DK Metcalf and Terry McLaurin after waiting on the position has to feel good as well. Paulsen also did a fine job of selecting high-upside receivers in the later rounds. The odds are strong that at least one of Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks or Michael Wilson is going to emerge as a weekly starter at some point.

What I did not like: Managers at the end typically pay a price because of their draft slot. While Paulsen did a fine job in getting the receivers he did where he got them, Aiyuk will be hard-pressed to go toe-to-toe with the other No. 1 receivers in this league. No one is questioning Aiyuk's ability to be a WR1, but the deck is stacked against him doing so consistently in a star-studded offense that does not play with much pace. Paulsen admitted during the live coverage of this draft that he would have preferred Jayden Daniels at quarterback and I agree it would have made his team more attractive. While the combination of Brock Purdy and Jared Goff is a more than serviceable pair and could emerge as potential dark horse league MVP candidates, the lack of rushing upside (not to mention Goff's home/road splits) from either quarterback makes them a somewhat uninspiring duo unless one of them has a truly special 40-TD season.

12. Robert Abbott/Mark Verrett

What I like: In Puka Nacua and Malik Nabers, Abbott and Verrett should have a pair of receivers capable of drawing 150-plus targets. Trey McBride was a certifiable stud over the second half of last season and enters this year as a strong candidate to push Sam LaPorta and Travis Kelce for overall TE1 honors. It is also easy to like Abbott and Verrett's decision to double up at tight end with one of the best prospects at the position to enter the draft in recent memory (Brock Bowers). Deebo Samuel will be as good of a first flex as any team has in this league. Jaylen Warren and Chase Brown may not be RB1 types, but they do not lack for upside. The same could be said about Jaylen Wright, although I have doubts if he will crash the RB1 or RB2 party in 2024 - even if Raheem Mostert or De'Von Achane miss time.

What I did not like: Attempting to win a tough tight end premium league with a Zero RB approach is difficult from the 12-hole, almost regardless of what receivers a manager chooses. Abbott and Verrett went even more hard-core with the approach than Coman (Team 8) by waiting on running back until 8.01 (and probably lucked out options as good as Warren and Brown were still on the board). As much upside as that duo possesses, it is hard to imagine either one of those players performing at a RB1 level often enough to make Zero RB pay off. McBride probably has less than a 20 percent chance of outperforming Kelce, making his selection at 2.01 a bit of a reach. While I love Bowers as much as anyone, I find it unlikely at best that he will outperform David Njoku, Dallas Goedert and even Pat Freiermuth in such a low-volume passing offense - barring an injury to Davante Adams.

Choosing five receivers with their first six picks not only means Abbott and Verrett are lacking at running back, but the double tight end approach meant that the duo will also likely be hurting for a huge ceiling at quarterback. While I could end up being completely wrong about how things will go down at receiver in Houston this season, I will not be selecting much of Tank Dell this season. Texans OC Bobby Slowik is a disciple of Kyle Shanahan, and that group of play-callers tends to employ (and play) a fullback. The presence of a fullback almost always means an offense only has two receivers on the field. Even if a fullback only plays about a third of the snaps, it means a third receiver will be a part-time player at best. I cannot imagine a scenario in which Slowik removes Nico Collins from the field (he is the team's only X receiver and just received a huge contract extension). Stefon Diggs is still a much more diverse receiver than Dell and far too accomplished to take a back seat to him. It is a long way of saying that Dell - a player who played at least 76 percent of the offensive snaps in his final five healthy games - may struggle to play more than 60 percent of the snaps in 2024.





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