Make no mistake, the Titans are coming into Lambeau Field this
Thursday with the intent of running all over the league’s
No. 26 run defense (140.6 yards per game) because a) that’s
what they do, and b) their own D has spent more than 160 snaps
on the field in their past two games. The Packers also sit third
in pass defense, so this is a matter of projecting the Titans
using their strength against Green Bay’s weakness. Even
in Week 10 when Denver locked down Henry, Tannehill still threw
for just 255 yards and 2 TDs -- even that included a 63-yard score
on a flea flicker -- with only 34 of them going to Burks and Woods.
Stay clear of them all.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Lazard was quiet in Week 10, catching just three passes for 45
yards. It marked just his third game of the season without a touchdown,
and it was the second time in his last six outings he’d
finished with less than 50 yards. That’s a long-winded way
of saying it feels like an outlier. Last Sunday was Christian
Watson’s coming out party, and it was the type of performance
that teams will take note of. The rookie’s speed should
open things up for Lazard, who remains Aaron Rodgers’ most
trusted target. Pencil Lazard in as a WR3 with some upside.
After weeks of injuries and dropped balls, the rookie receiver
finally flashed the skills that made him the 34th overall pick
in this year’s draft. Watson shook off some early struggles
to haul in an over-the-shoulder bomb for a touchdown. Things got
better from there, and he finished the game with four receptions,
107 yards, and three TDs. Now the question becomes whether what
we saw will jumpstart the rest of his first season or will we
look back on it in two months as an isolated performance? If you
want to play Watson as a flex it’s a worthwhile gamble.
Just keep your expectations in check.
The Colts are allowing opposing QB’s to complete nearly
70% of their passes at a 6.5 yards per attempt clip. Brown only
had one catch last week, but in the three games leading up to
the loss to the Commanders, he was averaging 5 catches for 95
yards per game. He also had five scores in that stretch. We’ll
have to monitor his ankle injury over the weekend, but I’m
looking for a bounce back week from Brown in the WR1 rankings.
Jackson is an uber-athletic former QB who was activated from
the practice squad this week. He, and not Grant Carcaterra or
Jack Stoll, is the likely replacement for the injured Dallas Goedert
as the pass catching tight end. The last time he was in this spot
(Week 18 2021) he had three catches for 22 yards and a score.
He’s a sneaky pickup this week who could be key for some owners’
playoff push as Goedert is expected to miss significant time.
The Colts own one of the toughest run defenses in the NFL, allowing
just 3.4 yards per carry, and they don’t give up many touchdowns
on the ground in the red zone. Sanders was down last week (RB41
in PPR leagues), and I think he struggles again on Sunday as Indy
focuses on stopping Sanders and QB Jalen Hurts on the ground.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
As good as the Eagles have been against the pass this year, they
are yielding a surprising 4.7 yards per carry on the season. With
Taylor showing last week (147 rushing yards) that he is back to
full health, expect the Colts to ride their workhorse once again.
If they are going to compete in this game, it will have to happen
on the ground, where they can attack the weakness of this defense
while eating clock and keeping Jalen Hurts and company off the
field.
Ryan, a surprise starter last week, is coming off one of his better
games of the season (222-1-0, 4-38-1; QB7). But the Eagles have
the best pass defense in the NFL and have allowed the second-fewest
fantasy points per game to QB’s this season. Ryan may be
efficient, working the play-action game off Jonathan Taylor’s
ground attack, but it won’t be a big day against Darius
Slay and company.
Pittman has now failed to reach 60 receiving yards in four straight
games, and six out of nine games this season. This week he will
likely draw coverage from one of the NFL’s top cover corners
in Darius Slay.
The Rams’ offense is ailing and failing, and this is a total
flier. Jefferson has eight targets over the last two games since
returning from injury and actually found the end zone last week.
Cooper Kupp is on IR, Allen Robinson appears to be completely
off the radar or in the doghouse, the offensive line is a shambles,
the Saints D is particularly tough on TE’s (tough sledding for
Tyler Higbee?). All of that could mean Jefferson is in for a larger
role this week, regardless of which QB plays. Matthew Stafford
might play, but he hasn’t been cleared yet through the concussion
protocol.
Speaking of Stafford, he was back at practice Wednesday, but
he still has not cleared concussion protocol. If he does play,
he is certainly an upgrade over John Wolford. However, he has
been uneven at best this season, and will be playing behind a
MASH unit of an offensive line, and without go-to receiver Cooper
Kupp, who is on IR. Expect the Saints, who have shut down TE’s
all season, to take away Tyler Higbee and make life even more
difficult for Stafford.
On the Fence: Any Rams RB
You would think with your starting QB on the sideline, your offensive
line in shambles, and your receiving corps injured or ineffective,
you might consider running the ball a bit. Nope. It’s just
not in HC Sean McVay’s DNA. In last week’s loss to
the Cardinals, they ran the ball 12 times. Twelve. Don’t
look for that to change any time soon, or any time at all.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Johnson has become the Saints primary receiving target at TE
with at least four catches and 40 receiving yards in three of
the last five games. Teams seem to have come up with a blueprint
for how to take away Alvin Kamara in the passing game, and with
Michael Thomas out, and Jarvis Landry limited, Johnson figures
to maintain a certain level of fantasy viability.
Kamara has been the heartbeat of the Saints offense this season.
But with just three catches in each of the last two games, teams
have taken him away as a check down threat. He’s also had to take
on more of a role in the run game with Mark Ingram sidelined with
an MCL injury, which may be a factor. The Saints simply aren’t
running enough plays. Just 47 in Week 10 and 51 in Week 9. All
of that could mean a hit to Kamara’s fantasy value.
Dalton started out playing efficiently, but now seems headed
for the bench whenever the Saints feel like Jameis Winston (back)
is ready. At this point, on or off the field, he’s not a fantasy
option.
If QB Justin Fields continues to run the way he has in recent
weeks, he’s going to be in play as a QB1, especially if he can
get well in the passing game against a struggling Falcons secondary.
But one thing he’s done well consistently is build some chemistry
with Kmet. The TE is second on the team to Darnell Mooney in targets,
catches, and yards, including 9 catches for 115 yards over the
last two games. He’s also found the end zone five times over the
last three games, making him Chicago’s leading scorer for the
season to this point. He’s a sure TE1 this week in a game where
Fields should have an easier time finding passing lanes.
Montgomery has been significantly outplayed by Khalil Herbert
this season, but with Herbert headed to IR, Montgomery should
step into a significantly increased role, and even though he’s
not Herbert, he is still averaging over 4.0 yards per carry. Perhaps
a bigger snap share will help get him in rhythm and bring some
needed production. He’s an RB2 this week.
Chicago parted with some significant draft capital to bring in
Claypool, but the early returns haven’t been there. Both
Claypool and the coaches have noted this week that learning the
offense is a big challenge for receivers. He has just three catches
for 21 yards over his first two games with the club. Maybe he’s
still getting settled in, and maybe he’ll break out this
week against these Falcons. But until he produces consistently
in this system he should be left on the sidelines.
No Brainers: N/A
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
While Pitts was held under 30 yards receiving for the seventh
time in nine games last week, it’s worth noting that he
has been targeted at least seven times in each of the last three
contests. This Bears defense will bring pressure, so QB Marcus
Mariota will be looking for his outlet. The Bears staff seems
interested in trying to get him the ball, and I think this week
the matchup works. He’s a low-end TE1 due to injury at the
position across the league.
Caleb Huntley led the team in rushing last week, but he has just
12 touches combined over the last two games. Cordarrelle Patterson
has been active, but not the same player since returning from
IR. Despite the three-man platoon, Allgeier is the best-suited
back to take advantage of a Bears defense that is allowing over
22 fantasy points per game to RB’s on the season. The question
is how many touches he gets, but he’s an interesting flex option
this week.
Mariota has shown flashes of brilliance and flashes of awful,
but he has thrown multiple TD passes in three of the last five
games. The problem is the combination of his inconsistency and
the Falcons’ run-driven offense has limited him to 200+
passing yards in a game just three times all season. He’s
out of play and his performance has every Falcons’ receiver
on the sideline as well.
Robinson seems to be taking over the RB1 role in Washington with
an increased share of the carries every week. He’s only
averaging about 3.5 yards per carry over the last two games, but
he runs very hard and is a physical back. The Texans are on tap
this week, and they have given up over 1600 rushing yards (most
in the NFL) and 13 rushing touchdowns (4th-most). They are also
yielding 5.2 yards per carry and 22.0 fantasy points per game
(most in the NFL). I think Robinson is in a great matchup and
is my dark horse RB2 this week.
Gibson’s carries have diminished with the emergence of
Brian Robinson, and I’m okay with that. His value has been
as a receiver out of the backfield. The problem is he’s
only had more than three catches in a game once in the last month,
and he totaled less than 20 receiving yards in three of those
games. Even though he’s still been involved, if he’s
not catching passes, he’s probably not helping your fantasy
team.
Samuel hasn’t been targeted more than four times in a game in
Taylor Heineke’s last three starts at QB and hasn’t had more than
three catches in a game in that span. He’s playing a distant second
fiddle to Terry McLaurin and won’t be a fantasy option until Carson
Wentz is back behind center.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Collins returned last week after missing two games with an abdominal
injury and had 10 targets right out of the box. He was still getting
up to game speed presumably, catching only five of them. But with
Brandin Cooks being hurt and mostly ineffective, and Chris Moore
the top receiving target in recent weeks, it sems like Houston
is ready to give Collins a shot at WR1 work. He gets a strong
matchup against Washington this week and looks like a good back
end WR2 play.
Cooks returned from injury in Week 10 and never really got going,
which is sort of the story of his season. He hasn’t posted
a 100-yard game all season and hasn’t even had an 80-yard
effort since Week 1. Plus, he has just one touchdown on the season.
To say he’s been a disappointment is an understatement.
The Texans should be looking to throw the ball against the Washington
secondary, so he could get a nice target share. The question is
what he’ll do with it?
Moore has been the Texans’ go-to guy in the passing game
the last couple weeks with seven catches on 11 targets and 113
yards and a score. But with Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins both
returning to the fold, Moore will take on the WR3 role and fall
back to his usual target share, which won’t be enough to
keep him viable in most leagues.
Rookie wide receiver Garrett Wilson is coming off of back-to-back
respectable fantasy days for the first time in his career when
playing with Zach Wilson and that should have fantasy managers
excited about his potential this week. Wilson gets to face the
very same Patriots defense that he went off for six catches and
a career-high 115 yards against just three weeks ago. He’s become
the clear WR1 in this offense and while this is expected to be
a low-scoring game, Wilson should see a fair number of targets
that will allow him to be a productive WR3/Flex play this week.
The Jets backfield has been extremely difficult to predict this
season aside from the short stretch when Breece Hall was operating
as the bell cow. It appears as if we’re back to a full-blown committee
in New York, with Michael Carter and James Robinson essentially
splitting backfield duties right down the middle. This makes it
very difficult to truly recommend either player, as a difficult
matchup against a good New England defense probably means that
each back will need a touchdown to be valuable for fantasy and
it’s unlikely that it happens for both of them. If you’re searching
for a trend, Carter has still seen more snaps in each of the two
games the Jets have played since acquiring Robinson, although
the totals were much closer in Week 9 than they were in Week 8.
Both players are low-end RB2/Flex plays in this one as the position
as a whole is pretty beat up at the moment.
The fantasy season started off hot for tight end Tyler Conklin,
but since then we’ve seen him produce just one fantasy-relevant
game over his past six starts. While it’s true that this
two-touchdown game did come against the very same New England
defense that he’s facing again here in Week 11, the overall
trends are quite down for Conklin overall. The tight end position
overall is a total dumpster fire, so you could probably do worse
than Conklin if you want to chase the production he had against
the Patriots before, but keep in mind that New England has only
allowed those two touchdown receptions to tight ends over their
past five contests.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
He’s not a flashy option, but Jakobi Meyers continues to
operate as perhaps the NFL’s least-respected team WR1. Meyers
has only failed to reach double-digit PPR fantasy points once
this season and he even got pretty close in that contest, meaning
that his floor is quite high on a weekly basis. His ceiling is
also fairly low given the Patriots’ low-volume passing offense,
but it is worth noting that Meyers saw a season-high 13 targets
the last time he faced the Jets back in Week 8, and he caught
nine of those passes for 60 yards and a touchdown.
Patriots running back Damien Harris is back this week after missing
Week 9 with an illness (the Patriots were on a bye in Week 10).
That should allow him to resume his role as the RB2 in the New
England offense, operating behind Rhamondre Stevenson. While Harris
has carried the ball at least 11 times in four of his seven games
this season, his fantasy production has not been there as he is
no longer getting all of the goal-line carries like he did in
2021. In fact, he hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 4
and while there’s always a chance that he sneaks into the
end zone, his lack of usage in the passing game makes him almost
completely touchdown-dependent on relatively low volume. He’s
someone who you could start if you’re absolutely desperate,
but otherwise, you almost certainly have someone on your bench
who gives you a higher upside.
The backfield committee in Detroit continues to be puzzling as
the Lions activated young superstar D’Andre Swift in Week
8, but have since given him just 13 total carries over his past
three games. Meanwhile, Jamaal Williams continues to see a monster
workload, as he’s seen 50 carries over that same three-game
stretch, scoring three total touchdowns in those contests. Williams
has now carried the ball at least 10 times in every game, including
15 or more carries in six of his past seven games. That kind of
workload makes him a very strong play in pretty much any matchup,
even if Swift does start to get more involved again. The Giants
have been fairly good against opposing running backs this season,
but they have given up 100-yard rushing days to four different
backs already and Dameon Pierce nearly got there this past week
as well. Williams is a strong RB2 with RB1 upside if he continues
to see goal-line work.
While D’Andre Swift has scored in two of the three games
he’s played in since returning from injury, it’s tough
to be very excited about a player who’s barely touching
the ball. Swift has now seen just 17 total touches over this three-game
stretch and it leads us to believe that he’s probably still
not fully healthy. He’s a risky play against a Giants defense
that’s been particularly good at containing backs in the
passing game, but it’s also difficult to sit a player like
him who has the physical ability to completely take over a fantasy
game.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has reestablished himself as the clear-cut
top target in this Detroit passing game, having seen 30 targets
over his past three games. That type of volume makes it very difficult
for other players to get involved in the passing game, especially
since the Lions have been leaning so heavily on their running
game in recent weeks. Jared Goff has thrown the ball fewer than
30 times in three of his past four games, including just four
touchdown passes over that stretch—a far cry from the 38 pass
attempts he averaged through the first four weeks of the season
when he had thrown 11 total touchdown passes. Add in the fact
that the Lions are on the road, facing a Giants defense that has
given up the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers
this season, and it’s easy to see why players like Josh Reynold
and Kalif Raymond are even worse plays than they normally are.
Neither player possesses the requisite target share to be a strong
option in this one.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
He’s now nine starts into the season and Giants quarterback Daniel
Jones is still yet to throw for even 225 yards in a single game
this season. He’s only thrown for two touchdowns in three of his
games and he’s been held to no passing touchdowns in four of them.
Still, despite those disgusting numbers, Jones has actually been
a viable fantasy quarterback more often than not, and it’s typically
been because of his legs. Jones is on pace for 731 rushing yards
on the year, as he’s been contributing about 43 rushing yards
per game - or the equivalent of just over one passing touchdown
per game with his rushing. Now he faces a Lions defense that has
given up more fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks
than any other team. They also have given up huge rushing days
to Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields, while allowing both Geno Smith
and Aaron Rodgers to reach 40 or more rushing yards against them.
This is about as good of a matchup as someone rostering Daniel
Jones could possibly ask for, so get him in your lineup if you’re
in need of an upside QB this week.
It’s been tough to find much to be excited about in this
New York Giants offense this season aside from Saquon Barkley,
but one player who’s had a bit of a reemergence has been
wide receiver Darius Slayton. Slayton’s season started off
extremely slow as he was playing way down the depth chart, but
he’s boosted himself back up in recent weeks, having now
produced double-digit fantasy points in three of his past four
opportunities. Slayton has still not seen more than seven targets
in any game this season, which is not surprising given the Giants’
overall low passing game volume, but he’s been highly effective
with the targets he is seeing and that makes him a sneaky WR3/Flex
against a Detroit defense that has given up the seventh-most fantasy
points per game to opposing wide receivers so far this season.
The Giants traded away Kadarius Toney which seemingly should
have meant an increase in opportunities for wide receiver Wan’Dale
Robinson, but that simply hasn’t come to fruition. The rookie
has seen just five targets over his past two games. To make matters
worse, Robinson is now dealing with a hamstring injury that has
held him out of practice as of Thursday and actually got worse
throughout the week. This matchup against a bad Detroit secondary
might look juicy on paper, but we need to take a wait-and-see
approach with Robinson before we put him in our lineups.
Following a brief two-week resurgence in which he caught 13 passes
for 221 yards and 2 TDs, Moore has gotten back on the struggle
bus, managing just six catches for 53 yards over his last two
games. With P.J. Walker out due to an ankle injury, Baker Mayfield
will return to the starting lineup. He did little during his earlier
run, but the rise of Foreman provides some hope that the former
No. 1 overall selection can pick his spots more effectively. The
Ravens are a bottom-five pass defense for the season, so there’s
definitely a path for Moore to deliver WR2 value in Week 11.
When Christian McCaffrey was traded away, the initial belief
was that Foreman and Hubbard would share the role. Hubbard ended
up missing two games with an ankle injury instead, and Foreman
locked down the clear RB1 role in his absence. In fact, when Hubbard
returned last Thursday, he logged fewer touches than Raheem Blackshear.
It’s best to keep him out of your lineup against Baltimore.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
With Carolina featuring the 25th-ranked run defense (139.2 yards
per game), there should be ample opportunity for the Ravens to
impose their will on the ground. The question is what the split
will look like. In the two games they played together, Edwards
logged 27 carries to 18 from Drake, but the latter ran effectively
in Baltimore’s last game, which Edwards missed due to injury.
It appears the Ravens view Edwards as their top back right now
with Drake in a complementary role. Until there’s more clarity,
feel free to use Edwards as an RB3 and Drake as a flex.
With Rashod Bateman (foot) lost for the season, Duvernay looks
like the nominal No. 1 receiver. The key phrases there being “looks
like” and “nominal.” Andrews is the only safe bet in Baltimore’s
passing game, whereas Duvernay figures to ebb and flow along with
the likes of Demarcus Robinson and James Proche. If you’re desperate
and looking to plug in somebody from the Ravens receiving corps,
Duvernay is the logical choice right now, but even then only as
a flex.
A rough Week 10 game against the Dolphins has some fantasy managers
questioning their decision to keep Amari Cooper in their lineup,
but this is a player who’s done this kind of thing throughout
his career. While Cooper’s season-ending numbers usually look
fine, it’s also true that his game logs often are scarred by a
handful of complete duds throughout the season. You have to take
the good with the bad on a player like Cooper, especially given
the offense he’s in right now with Jacoby Brissett behind center.
But if you can look beyond those games, you’ll find that Cooper
has reached the 20-point fantasy mark in four of his nine games
already this season and he’s been at least in the double-digits
in six of his nine games with his new team. He’s facing a Buffalo
defense that is quite good overall, but they’ve been exploitable
by opposing WR1s this season. Most recently it was Justin Jefferson
who went off against them, but players like Garrett Wilson, Romeo
Doubs, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Cooper Kupp have all had nice fantasy
days against this defense. Cooper should be in lineups as the
clear top target in the Browns’ passing game.
While the top receivers have done fairly well against the Bills,
the Buffalo defense has done a great job of containing the complementary
pieces in opposing offenses. They even haven’t allowed a
tight end touchdown yet this season. Donovan Peoples-Jones and
David Njoku would be obvious fades if it weren’t for the
fact that both players have been pretty hot in their starts prior
to this game. Peoples-Jones has scored double-digit fantasy points
in four straight contests, including narrowly missing the 100-yard
mark against the Dolphins this past week. Njoku is a bit shakier
of a play as he remains limited in practice and could end up missing
yet another game with the ankle injury that has hampered him.
If he does play, though, he’s been able to be useful at
a position that is practically completely devoid of fantasy production,
so it’ll be hard to justify benching him for other players
who have a far worse upside.
The frustrating season for Kareem Hunt continued this past week
as the back got just seven total touches against Miami and he
has now failed to reach even double-digit points in six of his
nine games so far this season. It might be tempting to try to
get him in your lineup if you believe that the Browns will fall
behind and end up wanting to put him on the field more in a pass-catching
role, but Hunt has not yet exceeded four catches in a game this
season, so you’re really grasping at straws if that’s
the plan. Hunt remains probably the best handcuff RB in the league
and he does touch the ball a bit each game, but don’t play
him against this very good Buffalo defense.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
The snow-pocalypse scheduled to hit Buffalo this weekend has
caused this Bills/Browns game to be moved to Detroit, which is
definitely a negative for the home-field advantage aspect of things,
but it should be considered an overall positive for the Bills
and their high-powered passing game. While his decision-making
was a bit off at times, Josh Allen’s arm looked fine as he threw
for 330 yards and rushed for an additional 84 yards against the
Vikings in Week 10. Now he faces a Browns defense that’s coming
off of getting lit up for three touchdowns by Tua Tagovailoa.
Get Allen in your lineup as usual.
It’s tough to fully trust a player who scored his only
two rushing touchdowns of the season this past week, but Devin
Singletary is someone who has to be considered a potential fantasy
starter this week. Not only are there quite a few injuries to
be navigating through which limits the pool to begin with, but
Singletary has now touched the ball at least 12 times in five
of his past six games. If Josh Allen’s elbow injury is still
bothering him, there’s a possibility that they continue
to lean more heavily on Singletary than usual, and that definitely
bodes well for him as he faces a Cleveland defense that has been
truly awful against opposing running backs this season, having
given up the second-most fantasy points per game to the position
on the year.
Bills wide receiver Gabe Davis is coming off of a huge game in
which he saw 10 targets against the Vikings, catching six of them
for 93 yards and a touchdown. However, it’s worth considering
that his performance came in a game that went to overtime and
was one of the bigger shootouts of the season. This week’s
contest in a neutral field environment against one of the league’s
most run-heavy offenses is not nearly as likely to lead to a shootout,
which severely hampers Davis’ ability to have a big game.
We know that he’s capable of producing even if he only gets
a few targets, but Davis has also been held to fewer than seven
fantasy points in half of his starts this season. His floor is
extremely low in matchups like this, so don’t chase last
week’s point totals in your lineup this week.
Given the Broncos-D has been exceptional against the pass this
season, it stands to reason we should see a lot of Jacobs in this
game. The Raiders workhorse saw 27 touches last week against the
Colts and posted a 28-144-2, 5-31-0 line the last time he faced
the Broncos back in Week 4. He’s played on 73% of the Raiders
snaps this season and with the passing game down Hunter Renfrow
and Darren Waller, Jacobs should be in line for a big workload
in Week 11.
Moreau has basically been an every-down player with Waller out
of the lineup playing 96% of the snaps last week, 97% in Week
9 and 100% in Week 8. You can’t ask for much more from a
plug-and-play tight end. While he did score his first touchdown
of the season last week, a realistic expectation is only four
to five targets. The matchup is neutral but given the lack of
quality options, he’s probably on the fringe of low-end
TE1 territory.
The Raiders (2-7) are coming of another bad loss and find themselves
circling the drain at the bottom of the AFC West. An emotional
Derek Carr at last week’s post-game press conference was
referencing teammates not giving their best effort. The Broncos
have given up just 6 passing TDs all year… six, by far the
fewest in the league. Carr threw for 188 scoreless yards the last
time he faced Denver. If Carr is on your fantasy roster, I’d
be searching pretty hard to find another option this week.
LV FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
LV FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
LV FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
LV FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
We’ll be monitoring the status of Jerry Jeudy as he left last
weeks game after one snap with an ankle injury. It seems like
he’s trending towards playing but we likely won’t know for sure
until Saturday. If Jeudy sits, Sutton should be the focal point
of the Broncos passing game in a plus matchup. His lone touchdown
came against the Raiders earlier this season and he now has double-digit
targets in four games including last week against Tennessee. Sutton
is on the WR2 list for Week 11.
The matchup isn’t going to get much better. The Raiders
have given up 17 touchdown passes (T-3rd) and the second most
fantasy points to quarterbacks. And Wilson’s best fantasy
game this season came against… you guessed it, the Raiders
back in Week 4. However, that’s the only time he’s
thrown more than 1 touchdown in a game and Wilson ranks just 14th
in rushing yards by quarterbacks. On the season, he’s been
a low-end QB2 but there is some upside this week if you can stomach
it. Dulcich is playing 80% of the snaps for Denver and his route
participation is ideal for mid-range TE1 plays.
The Broncos worked Chase Edmonds into the mix last week playing
19% of the snaps and further diluting a running back group that
struggle to produce low-end RB2 numbers on a weekly basis. The
overall environment of this offense isn’t great but if the plus-matchups
intrigues you, then perhaps Gordon is viable as Flex but otherwise,
I’d stay away.
With Ja’Marr Chase (hip) expected to miss another game,
Burrow isn’t quite a no brainer against the Steelers. In
two outings minus his top target, the LSU alum has averaged 219
yards, 1.5 TDs, and 1 INT per game -- he also ran for a TD in
Week 9, which was his fourth rushing score in five games. Burrow
took it on the chin in the opener against the Steelers, getting
sacked seven times and tossing four picks. He’s only thrown
two in eight games since, however, and Pittsburgh hasn’t
been nearly as disruptive in subsequent weeks. Burrow feels like
a midrange QB1 play here.
With eight receptions, 82 yards, and a touchdown in Weeks 8 and
9, Boyd hasn’t exactly filled the void left by Chase’s
absence. He’ll get another chance this Sunday, so we’ll
see if the week off helps the Bengals make some tweaks offensively.
Boyd caught a TD pass in Week 1 against the Steelers, but he finished
with just 33 yards on four receptions. The veteran should be the
No. 2 target behind Higgins this Sunday, and that’s enough
to provide Boyd with flex potential.
On the Fence: N/A
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Harris (knee) is coming off his best game of the season, carrying
the ball 20 times for 99 yards against the Saints. He’s dealing
with discomfort in his knee, however, and the snap count between
the second-year back and Jaylen Warren keeps narrowing -- last
week it was 50 for Harris and 36 for Warren. Harris managed a
paltry 26 yards against Cincinnati in Week 1, and he has just
three touchdowns this season (and none since Oct. 16). Add all
that up and Harris feels like a high-end RB3 at best right now.
Pickett ran for a season-high 51 yards and a touchdown in Week
10, giving the rookie more rushing scores (3) than passing ones
(2) for the year. That may not change this Sunday as the Bengals
are one of just six teams to have allowed fewer than 10 TDs through
the air this season. There is some late-season potential for Pickett
given his athleticism and long leash, but this is a good week
to keep him benched.
While there were some bad reads and a couple of ill-advised throws
that turned into INTs, Prescott played pretty well last Sunday,
passing for 265 yards and 3 TDs alongside that pair of picks.
He’ll need to be even better in Minnesota this Sunday where
the Vikings rank 29th in pass defense, allowing 262.9 yards per
game. Minnesota has mitigated the damage by intercepting 10 passes,
making them one of six teams with double-digit picks on the season,
but that’s a dangerous thing to rely on. Prescott looks
like a solid QB1 for this weekend’s showdown.
Elliott has missed the past two games with a knee injury. It
sounded like he was close to returning this past Sunday, however,
so look for him to be back in uniform in Week 11. In his absence,
Pollard has been a beast, piling up 275 yards and 4 TDs, which
very much calls into question how touches will be divvied up once
Elliott returns. We may get our answer this week, and at this
point it would be smart to limit expectations on the longtime
Cowboys back to no more than an RB3 with risk/reward capability.
On the Fence: N/A
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
In two games since being acquired from the Lions, Hockenson has
been targeted 19 times, catching 16 passes for 115 yards. The
yards-per-reception fail to impress, and he hasn’t gotten in the
end zone, yet, but you can’t overstate how important that level
of involvement offensively is. The tight end position has been
decimated by injury recently -- Zach Ertz (knee), Dallas Goedert
(shoulder), and Darren Waller (hamstring) are all on the shelf
-- and that puts Hockenson firmly in TE1 territory.
For most of 2022, Cousins has been a high-floor, low-ceiling play.
Last Sunday marked his first 300-yard outing of the season, and
he has still yet to pass for more than two TDs in a game. Much
of what was just written could’ve applied to Aaron Rodgers
going into last weekend as well, but he threw for three touchdowns
against the Cowboys. Dallas has been tough in general against
the pass, though, ranking fourth in yards allowed and first in
sacks. Cousins holds fringe QB1 potential in a matchup where he
could over- or underperform that designation.
It’s tantalizing to think of what Toney can do with Mahomes at
quarterback but we should probably temper our excitement and understand
this offense isn’t geared toward peppering one wide receiver with
a boatload of targets. On the positive side for Toney, it looks
like JuJu Smith-Shuster is probably going to sit this week and
Mecole Hardman (abdomen) has been placed on IR which should force
the former Giant into a larger participation role if Hardman sits
on Sunday. Toney played 44% of the snaps last week. Justin Watson
played 73% of the snaps and there’s no reason to think that Marquez
Valdes-Scantling won’t see his typical 80% snap rate. So, talent
and game environment give Toney a nice WR2 floor but it would
take Hardman missing to feel good about Toney’s WR1 upside.
The switch has been made as Clyde Edwards-Helaire saw just four
snaps last week as rookie Pacheco and third-down back Jerick McKinnon
got most of the running back work. While being the starting running
back has a nice ring to it, the Chiefs simply aren’t interested
in running the ball very much. Only Tampa Bay throws at a higher
rate and Pacheco hasn’t seen much work in the passing game with
only 3 catches on the season, limiting his upside. On the plus
side, the Chargers aren’t stopping people on the ground, giving
up the third-most fantasy points to the position and the Chiefs
have the highest implied team total (28.5) in Week 11.
On the Fence: N/A
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
The Chargers fantasy prospects outside of Ekeler all come down
to how healthy Keenan Keenan and Mike Williams are. Will they
play, and if so, will they be limited? Assuming full strength,
both would be in great spots against a Chiefs defense that’s given
up the sixth-most points to the position. Problem is, Allen hasn’t
played since Week 1 making it difficult to trust him in his first
game back. Williams is in a similar position having missed the
last two games with a sprained ankle. Making matters worse for
fantasy owners is this game is Sunday night and we may not know
their status until 90 minutes before kickoff. Josh Palmer would
be a WR2 option if both starters sit, or a Flex option if only
one of Keenan or Williams are active.
It’s not difficult to figure out why Herbert hasn’t
been his fantasy self this season. Missing you’re top two
receiving threats will do that to a quarterback. Sure, this is
a high-total game and Austin Ekeler is capable of providing points
in the passing game, but having Mike Williams and/or Keenan Allen
would go a long way for Herbert’s fantasy outlook against
the Chiefs. He’ll do well to crack low-end QB1 numbers if
both receivers sit.
Tight end Gerald Everett left last week’s game with a groin
injury and has been limited in practice this week making him a
risky play despite a decent matchup against the Chiefs. Tre' McKitty
saw an increased snap share last week with Everett on the sidelines
but probably isn’t fantasy viable unless Everett and one
of the starting receivers is ruled out.
If you need another reason to start Kittle, the Cardinals represent
the best matchup for tight ends in the league. Five tight ends
have finished with six-plus catches against Arizona and no defense
has given up more yards (778) to the position. Kittle was quiet
last week (1-21-0) as the 49ers got their running game going against
the Chargers and while that could certainly be the case again,
the matchup is just too good not to feel comfortable about Kittle
in Week 11.
In his first game action since Week 1, Mitchell played 35% of
the snaps but saw 19 touches as the 49ers played from in-front
against the Chargers. We could see a repeat performance as San
Francisco is a touchdown favorite over Arizona which could result
in a run-heavy gameplan by Kyle Shanahan. Still, McCaffrey should
get first crack at getting the running game going and the 49ers
head coach has been known to stick with the hot hand. Mitchell
will likely get enough usage to be a Flex consideration and be
a thorn in the fantasy side of McCaffrey.
Deebo’s fantasy stock has been trending down for weeks, especially
with the addition of Christian McCaffrey to the offense. Brandon
Aiyuk leads the team in receiving yards (567) and Deebo hasn’t
scored since Week 5. He’s likely to get two or three rushing opportunities
per game but the receiving volume just isn’t there anymore with
only 1 game with 10+ targets. He’s simply isn’t a WR1 anymore…
heck, he isn’t even a WR2. Consider him a Flex consideration only
moving forward.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
We had a shakeup in the Arizona running back room this week as
Eno Benjamin was surprising released after barely playing in Week
10. He was quickly grabbed off waivers by Houston indicating an
off-field reason for his departure. The Cardinals also indicated
that it was time to get Conner back to being a main figure in
this offense, giving him 24 touches against the Rams while playing
a whopping 96% of the snaps. That kind of usage is hard to come
by making him an easy RB1 regardless of opponent. Given the Cardinals
are dealing with injuries to Kyler Murray and Colt McCoy, expect
to see a lot of work for Conner on Monday night against the 49ers.
Rondale Moore has been a solid WR2 in PPR leagues the last three
weeks (WR16, WR16, WR7) but his run may be coming to an end. Marquise
Brown has been on the shelf since with a foot injury since Week
6 but could be on the field Monday night cutting into the targets
for Moore. The slot role that Moore lives in will still be valuable
but the volume may become shaky with both Hopkins and Brown on
the outside. We’ll need to monitor reports over the weekend
to see if Brown plays and how involved he is likely to be.
With Zach Ertz (knee) out for the season, rookie Trey McBride
is a solid pickup at the position desperate for options. Last
week McBride played 91% of the snaps which is what we’re
looking for from our tight end plays. If you’re not rolling
out Kelce, Andrews, Kittle, Hockenson, Higbee or Freiermuth, then
McBride is certainly worth considering.
