Sanders has established himself as the clear lead dog in the
Eagles’ backfield, averaging 80 ground yards per game and nearly
5.0 yards per carry. He’s also second on the team to QB Jalen
Hurts with five rushing TD’s. This week he gets a matchup with
a Texans defense that has allowed an NFL-high 1302 rushing yards
to date, and a 5.6 yard per carry rate, second worst in the league.
This is a defense that’s built to eliminate the big plays in the
passing game but allows 29.0 fantasy points per game to RB’s on
the season. He’s a solid RB1 play again this week as he and Hurst
ground and pound their way to another big win.
Brown’s big day against the Steelers last week inched him in front
of DeVonta Smith for the team lead in targets and catches, but
he has a sizeable lead in receiving yards. But that number may
hit a slight hiatus this week. If there’s one thing Texans’ HC
Lovie Smith knows, it’s defense, especially when it comes to defending
the pass. The Cover Two zone he helped develop and perfect years
ago as a Buccaneers assistant in Tampa is meant to limit big plays
in the passing game. So, while Brown may catch his average 5-6
passes this week, I don’t expect to see him running all over the
field for YAC yards. He’s still a WR1, particularly in PPR formats,
but his yards could be down this week, and it’s not sound strategy
to expect three touchdowns a game as he posted last week.
The guy who was once the vertical threat in this offense, Smith
is down over three yards per catch on average compared to last
season, and it’s been a bleak October. The former Heisman
winner has just 10 catches on 13 targets for only 67 yards combined
over the last two games as A.J. Brown takes center stage in the
passing attack. With his slip to WR2 status, the limitations Houston’s
Cover Two will put on the deep ball, and what I would expect is
a run-heavy gameplan against a porous run defense, look for Smith’s
slide to continue for at least another week. If you’re going
to play a pass catcher from this offense it should be TE Dallas
Goedert. TE’s traditional find success on seam routes between
the two split safeties in the Cover Two.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Heading into last week’s debacle, Pierce had amassed at
least 80 ground yards and averaged at least 4.0 yards per game
in four straight games. In that same span, he totaled 15 catches
for almost 70 yards receiving. The Titans were ready for him,
though. The Eagles might not be. Philly is allowing 5.2 yards
per carry and an average of 17.9 fantasy points per game to RB’s
this season. There’s really nothing else to defend on this
offense though, so limit Pierce’s fantasy expectations to
a low-end RB2 this week.
It was another tough day on the rollercoaster that is Davis Mills’
2022 season. The former Stanford Cardinal had his second 150-yard
day in three weeks and is averaging just over 5.0 yards per attempt
during that three-game string. He did squeeze a 300-yard effort
in there, and he has found the end zone, throwing five scoring
passes in the last four games. But this Eagles defense is 4th
in completion percentage, 2nd in yards per attempt, tied for 2nd
in interceptions and tied for 5th in sacks. This is probably not
the week to put the inconsistent Mills on your roster, though
with Philly focused on Pierce and the run game, Mills may have
some success using his backs and TE’s in the quick passing game.
Update: It appears
Brandin Cooks is unhappy and will be inactive tonight.
Cooks should be blowing up the stat line with Nico Collins out
these days, but this passing attack has devolved into a check-down
marathon. His six targets last week accounted for just 20% of
the team target share, and he hasn’t had more than four
catches in a game since the beginning of October. Don’t
let the stat line from last week fool you either. Of his 73 receiving
yards, 70 came on the final drive of the game. It won’t
be much better this week against one of the best passing defenses
in the league. He's quickly becoming irrelevant.
It’s been the Justin Jefferson show in Minnesota this season,
but Thielen is still quietly delivering some quality fantasy performances.
The veteran has scored at least 12 fantasy points in four of his
past five games and he’s now been targeted at least seven
times in every game since his disappointing four-target Week 1.
His low depth of target means that he’s converting a high
percentage of his opportunities into catches and while his upside
is minimal, he’s a pretty high-floor WR3/Flex, especially
against a Washington defense that ranks as a top-10 opponent for
opposing wide receivers this season.
Losing Irv Smith to what will likely end up being a season-ending
ankle injury meant that the Vikings were in the market for a tight
end and they absolutely went for it, acquiring Hockenson from
the Lions this week. Hockenson has been one of the few tight ends
who’s been a difference-maker for fantasy throughout his career
and while he’s never been at the elite level, he’s always been
a reliable second-tier tight end who occasionally delivers big
weeks. Unfortunately, a move to a new team often means a less-than-full
snap share, especially at a complicated position like tight end,
which makes things a bit complicated for his fantasy value this
week. To make matters worse, Hockenson faces a Washington defense
that has been excellent against opposing tight ends, having conceded
the second-fewest points to the position on the year. Still, tight
end remains a dumpster fire throughout the league, so managers
are unlikely to have another option on their roster who can actually
deliver difference-making production, so Hockenson is probably
a must-start for those who are rostering him.
An Alexander Mattison touchdown in Week 8 had those starting
Dalvin Cook on tilt, but don’t get too excited if you’ve
got the Vikings backup on your roster - at least not yet. Mattison
is still touching the ball fewer than seven times per game on
average this season and while he has snuck into the end zone three
times, he’s really just a premier handcuff to one of the
league’s best backs. Don’t fall for the “he
scored last week” trap - keep him on your bench unless Dalvin
Cook ends up missing time with an injury.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Rookie wide receiver Jahan Dotson remains sidelined with a hamstring
injury and is looking less likely to play in Week 9 by the day.
This should mean another strong usage week for veteran Terry McLaurin
who has really stepped up in the past two weeks since Taylor Heinicke
took over as the starting quarterback. McLaurin has delivered
his two best fantasy performances of the season in these two games,
including a season-high 113 yards against the Colts in Week 8.
He’s still not getting a massive target volume as the Commanders
remain a very balanced offense, but they’ve also faced a lot of
struggling offenses this season which has allowed them to lean
heavily on the run. Minnesota ranks in the top-10 offenses in
points per game right now, however, so look for the Commanders
to have to pass a bit more than usual in order to stay on pace.
That should mean good things for McLaurin and his chances to make
it three-straight solid WR2 fantasy performances.
With only McLaurin as target competition, wide receiver Curtis
Samuel has been able to continue producing adequate fantasy numbers
since his early season breakout. Sure, he’s not winning
you weeks, but Samuel does have double-digit PPR points in six
of his eight games this season, including each of his past two
contests with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback. He saw a season-low
four targets this past week which should cause fantasy managers
to raise an eyebrow, but he’s also carried the ball nine
times in his past two games, which means that the team is making
it a point to get him the ball, even if it means artificially
manufacturing touches for him. He’s a low-ceiling player
and doesn’t have quite enough volume to be completely safe,
but Samuel is someone who you can feel decent enough about starting
if you’re in a pinch during this difficult bye-week situation.
Rookie running back Brian Robinson’s season has been a rollercoaster,
but this past week was certainly one of the low points as he played
the third-most snaps in the Commanders’ backfield despite the
team winning its third straight game. Robinson is the least likely
of the three Commanders running backs to be on the field for passing
downs and Washington could very well find themselves trailing
throughout this game against the Vikings who are currently 6-1.
Robinson has also been less efficient than Antonio Gibson with
his carries this season, so there’s also a strong chance that
this remains an ugly, crowded backfield that you’ll want to avoid
unless you’re in utter desperation during this Week 9 bye-pocalypse.
In fact, if you’re in need of a Washington back to start
this week, Gibson probably makes the most sense, as he’s
now caught at least three passes in five straight contests, including
his seven-catch performance this past week against the Colts.
The fact that Washington didn’t move Gibson at the trade
deadline would seem to indicate that they’re still interested
in seeing what they have in him. Nevertheless, as stated above,
this is a backfield that is probably going to cause a lot of headaches
for fantasy managers who think they have it figured out, only
to later realize that even the coaches don’t seem to have
a real grasp on what they want to do.
Trading away Christian
McCaffrey was supposed to be Carolina waving the white flag,
but Foreman has stepped in and rushed for 118 yards in back-to-back
games while visiting the end zone three times against the Falcons
last Sunday. He carried the ball 26 times, which is likely to
come down a tick or two if Chuba Hubbard (ankle) returns after
missing Week 8 with an ankle injury. Still, watching Nick Chubb
run for 101 yards and a pair of TDs gives Foreman a lot of upside
against a Bengals defense playing on a short week and in their
final game before their bye. Consider Foreman a low-end RB2.
The team hopes Hubbard will return in Week 9 after missing the
previous game, giving them the one-two punch they utilized in
beating the Bucs where Hubbard logged 73 yards and a touchdown
before departing with the injury. The play of Foreman means he
should serve as the lead back, but taking the Browns as an example,
they still managed to get Kareem Hunt 15 touches to Chubb’s 24
on Monday night. That gives Hubbard some intriguing flex value,
assuming he’s active.
Fade: N/A
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
With Ja’Marr Chase (hip) out, the Bengals passing game
struggled badly Monday night as Burrow faced down a heavy rush
and none of his receivers reached the 50-yard plateau. Carolina
lacks Cleveland’s ability to rush the passer, however, with
only two clubs having fewer sacks on the season than the Panthers.
Given time, Burrow should be able to connect with a receiving
corps that’s still talented, which pushes Boyd up the rankings.
The veteran was a luxury item when Chase was healthy, but now
he should step into the No. 2 slot behind Higgins. That’s
enough to provide low-end WR3 value.
The other statistical beneficiary from the Chase injury should
be Hurst, who finished second on the club in both receptions (4)
and receiving yards (42) on MNF. His upside isn’t as high
as Boyd’s, to be sure, but he could be a volume target for
Burrow if the focus is on moving the chains. Atlanta’s Kyle
Pitts reemerged after several quiet weeks to post a 5-80-1 line
against the Panthers last weekend, and though Hurst can’t
match Pitts’ athleticism, he could still find enough space
to be a fringe TE1 candidate.
Those expecting Gabe Davis to blossom into a reliable every-week
fantasy starter here in 2022 have been disappointed, but things
really haven’t been that bad for the Bills’ WR2. Davis
has seen at least five targets in all but one game he’s
started this season, including a season-high seven targets in
the Bills’ Week 8 victory over the Packers and while he
only caught two of those passes, he remains by far the most involved
Bills pass catcher, after Diggs. He’s probably always going
to be a boom-or-bust type of player, but you’re not going
to want to try to guess when he’ll have his down weeks and
end up missing on a potential boom. Either continue putting Davis
in your lineup or look to trade him prior to your league’s
deadline.
The backfield in Buffalo might have just gotten significantly
more crowded and frustrating for fantasy as the team made a move
to send Zack Moss and a late-round pick in exchange for Colts
pass-catching back Nyheim Hines. Despite playing behind one of
the league’s most dominant backfield-mates, Hines has already
made 25 receptions this season and could start assuming a primary
passing down role in Buffalo as soon as this week. It’s sometimes
tough for a back to immediately cement himself in a new offense
so quickly, which is why we’re going to remain at least a big
optimistic about Singletary’s chances for success, but he’s been
a disappointment overall this season even prior to this move.
Singletary has been held under double-digit fantasy points in
all but three of his games and he’s really only delivered one
spike performance to help ease the sting that fantasy managers
are feeling. The RB landscape is a disaster right now, so Singletary
is probably going to be in a lot of lineups this week, but this
is the time to start looking elsewhere if possible.
As mentioned above, the addition of Hines further complicates
what was already a frustrating backfield for fantasy purposes,
but one thing that it will likely do is completely zap whatever
fantasy value James Cook had. Cook was originally believed to
have been drafted to play passing downs, but he’s actually
only caught five passes on the season (four of them in one game
back in Week 3) and he’s only touching the ball a few times
per week as it is. Cook is nothing more than a potential handcuff
for Singletary at this time. Hines, on the other hand, has some
potential to be useful down the stretch this season as he becomes
more acclimated in one of the league’s best offenses, but
he’ll likely need at least a week or two to really pick
up the offense and start to play a significant enough number of
snaps to be fantasy relevant.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Corey Davis missed Week 8 with a knee injury and still has not
practiced as of Wednesday. Even without Davis on the field, Elijah
Moore remained an afterthought in the Jets offense as he played
just 10 snaps - fifth-most among Jets wide receivers. Meanwhile,
rookie Garrett Wilson finished with the most snaps on the team
for the second straight week and saw more targets (7) than all
other Jets wide receivers combined in Week 8. These trends should
have fantasy managers at least a bit excited that we could be
headed back toward a heavier target share for Wilson like he was
seeing earlier in the season when Joe Flacco was behind center.
Wilson is still really only a starter in deep formats, but he’s
someone to keep an eye on as the Jets will likely need to pass
much more heavily than usual in order to compete with the high-powered
Bills offense here in Week 9.
Michael Carter’s opportunity to earn back the top running back
role in New York got off to a bit of a disappointing start in
Week 8, as the second-year back touched the ball just 11 times
in his team’s home loss to the Patriots. He’ll have another opportunity
to command significant touches against another division rival
this week as the Jets host the Bills in what will be an extremely
important contest for New York’s chances of making a playoff run
and potentially competing for the division. Carter played more
than two-thirds of the Jets’ snaps this past week and should remain
the primary back at least for now, but James Robinson had only
been on the roster for a few days prior to the game, so he’s likely
going to begin to see more snaps as early as this week. Those
rostering Carter will just have to hope that those snaps come
at the expense of Ty Johnson and not Carter.
A five-carry, 17-yard debut in New York wasn’t anything
special for James Robinson, but that’s about what we should
have been expecting from a player who had only been on the Jets’
roster for a few days prior to suiting up. Still, Robinson does
not possess quite as wide of a range of skills as Carter does
and he’s almost certainly still learning the offense this
week, so avoiding him for fantasy again this week probably makes
a lot of sense. We’ll hope to see him get more opportunities
this week, but it’s unlikely that he will suddenly become
the new bell cow this soon.
The quarterback change from veteran Matt Ryan to first-time starter
Sam Ehlinger was bound to bring some changes to the Indianapolis
offense, but one thing that seemed to not change was wide receiver
Michael Pittman Jr.’s involvement in the offense. Pittman led
the team with a whopping 39 percent target share in Ehlinger’s
debut in Week 8, catching seven of those passes for 53 yards.
While his target depth remains quite low for a perceived alpha
receiver, Pittman’s usage has helped him remain a mid-level WR2
even in what has been a tumultuous season in Indianapolis. He’s
caught at least five passes in all but one game this season and
should remain a weekly starter in all formats as he stays healthy.
One of the more interesting and under-the-radar situations in
fantasy this week is the backfield in Indianapolis. The Colts
traded longtime satellite back Nyheim Hines to the Bills this
week, getting grinder Zack Moss as part of the package in return.
There’s no question that Jonathan Taylor is the bell cow
in this backfield when he’s healthy, but he tweaked his
ankle in the Colts’ Week 8 loss to the Commanders and has
still not practiced as of Wednesday. Taylor probably doesn’t
need to practice at all in order to still have some potential
to start against the Patriots, but there’s a real chance
that he ends up sitting out this game, considering that the Colts
have all but told us that they’re not trying to compete
in 2022 and risking the long-term health of their star offensive
weapon is just bad business.
If Taylor does sit, look for Deon Jackson to assume the role
of bell cow back, at least for this one game. Jackson was wildly
productive in his two opportunities to play significant snaps
earlier this season, including delivering a shocking 10-catch
game in Week 6. He’d have an opportunity to touch the ball
20-plus times in this one and that alone would make him a strong
RB2 this week if Taylor is unable to go.
While Pittman remained a target hog in Sam Ehlinger’s debut,
the same unfortunately cannot be said for Parris Campbell. Campbell
had commanded 22 targets in Matt Ryan’s final two weeks
as the starter in Indianapolis, but that fell to just two targets
in Ehlinger’s debut in Week 8. Obviously, this was just
a one-game sample size and we can’t completely eliminate
Campbell from our radar, but this is likely to be a low-volume
passing game to begin with and getting ancillary pieces of that
type of offense is rarely conducive to success in fantasy football.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
After matching a season-high 13 targets in Week 8, the strong
season from Jakobi Meyers continues to fly under the radar in
most fantasy circles. Meyers hasn’t delivered a ton of huge
games, but he’s finished with double-digit PPR points in
every game, making him one of the most reliable WR3/Flex options
in the game, who occasionally also delivers strong WR2 numbers.
This week he faces a Colts defense that has given up the second-fewest
fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season,
but they’re also coming off of giving up their first 100-yard
receiver (Terry McLaurin) of the season this past week.
The monster breakout season for Rhamondre Stevenson continues
to roll on, much to the frustration of those invested in Damien
Harris. Harris has now failed to reach double-digit points in
three straight starts and has needed a touchdown to reach that
total in all three of the games he’s done so this season.
Harris is currently dealing with an illness that has held him
out of practice this week and while he’s expected to play,
he might be even more limited than usual. He’ll need a touchdown
to be relevant and the Patriots’ offense just isn’t
producing enough points to make that something you’ll want
to rely on.
Listen, I saw it. I know. It was awful last week. And I have
watched the Raiders evolve into a run-first, run heavy attack.
But everyone needs to pump the brakes on the Carr bashing. This
guy is a fierce competitor, and based on nothing more than what
I see, I don’t expect a second dismal outing. In the two games
prior, he was averaging almost 9.0 yards per attempt with three
touchdowns. His interception last week was his first since Week
3. This Jaguars defense is focused on stopping the run and has
one of the worst pass rush groups in the league. The ball will
end up in Carr’s hands, and he will have time to throw. As a bye
week replacement, he’s a valid QB1 on Sunday.
At 4.0 yards allowed per carry, the Jags have one of the best
run defense units in the league. However, HC Josh McDaniels will
still force him the rock, especially early, and Jacksonville is
yielding 26.8 fantasy points per game to RB’s this season, including
a league leading 407 receiving yards.
Hollins is the clear WR2 in Vegas now, playing behind Davante
Adams and ahead of Hunter Renfrow. He actually leads the team
in yards per catch (14.7) and is second in targets, receptions,
and receiving yards. Despite that, he hasn’t shown much fantasy
relevance. His seven catches last week only went for 64 yards
and marked his biggest output since Week 3. In the three games
prior, he had just five total catches for 77 yards. He’s on the
sideline for me this week.
LV FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
LV FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
LV FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
LV FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Etienne is the Jaguars offense, and with James Robinson off to
New York, the path has been cleared for an even bigger role. Etienne
has at least 10 carries in each of the last four games, and that
number has grown steadily, culminating in 27 total touches last
week. He’s averaging 6.2 yards per carry and 9.2 yards per
catch for the season, and his 50.9 fantasy points over the last
three weeks is fourth among all RB’s. He’s looking
more and more like a clear RB1 the rest of the way, especially
this week against a Raiders defense that is allowing nearly 20
fantasy points per game to RB’s.
The Raiders are allowing the second most fantasy points to QB’s
in the league (25.8), which explains why Lawrence is ranked No.8
in this week’s FFT rankings. But he has just one 300-yard
effort on the resume this year, is averaging just 6.6 yards per
attempt, and has thrown only two touchdown passes in the last
month. Plus, with the emergence of Travis Etienne, the Jags are
leaning on the run game more and more. I just don’t know
if the matchup alone is enough to make me take the leap.
Kirk, while still the top target in this passing attack, hasn’t
topped 40 yards in a game in three of the last four and hasn’t
posted a 100-yard effort since Week 1. He’s averaging more
than seven targets per game, but what he does with them is inconsistent
at best. The Raiders are middle of the pack against wide receivers
and haven’t allowed a 100-yard game yet this season.
Tagovailoa is coming off his best game since Week 2, passing
for 382 yards and three TDs in a comeback win over the Lions.
He’ll remain in the NFC North this Sunday against a Bears defense
that has traded away premium players Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith
in successive weeks. While Chicago’s pass defense ranks fifth
at 188 yards allowed per game on the year, that’s more a byproduct
of their porous run defense (156 YPG; 31st in the NFL) than an
actual asset. Miami is a passing team, and their strength is the
duo of Hill and Waddle. That won’t change this weekend, making
Tagovailoa a solid QB1.
As noted, the Bears are atrocious defensively against the run,
and that was before the Quinn and Smith deals. Wilson, acquired
this week from the 49ers, should be able to hit the ground running
for the most part, but it’d still be a lot to ask for Wilson to
step right in and deliver fantasy-worthy numbers. A more likely
scenario is he’ll spell Mostert in a similar capacity to Chase
Edmonds, who was traded to Denver, which would mean around 20
snaps. Wilson is worth owning, but the safe play is to keep him
benched here.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
It took a while, but it appears the Bears have finally warmed
to the idea of getting Herbert meaningful touches even when Montgomery
is healthy. Over the last three games, the second-year pro has
35 carries and one reception, 260 combined yards, and a pair of
touchdowns. Miami ranks among the NFL’s better run defenses,
sitting sixth at 100.6 yards allowed per game on the ground, but
watching the Bears shred both New England and Dallas should be
enough to give you the confidence to get Herbert in your lineup
as a midrange RB3.
As a passer, Fields still appears painfully slow to pull the trigger.
As a runner, however, the Ohio State product is making things
happen. Over his last three games, Fields has rushed for 230 yards
and 2 TDs, which puts him squarely into QB1 territory at a time
when so many normally reliable producers (Brady, Rodgers, Stafford,
Wilson...) have gone into the tank statistically. The concern,
of course, is if Miami can lock down Fields as a runner, his limitations
as a passer could lead to a low floor. At this stage, though,
it’s a risk worth taking.
After trading away a pair of premium defensive players, the Bears
swung a deal with the Steelers to acquire Claypool in the hope
he’ll give Fields another reliable target to pair with Darnell
Mooney. It may bear fruit. It may not. Fantasy owners would be
wise to adopt a wait-and-see approach with Claypool, however,
as the Notre Dame alum has only topped 50 yards in a game once
this year and has just three TDs over his last 23 games. He belongs
on your bench.
Points have been hard to come by during Green Bay’s ongoing four-game
losing streak, but there are two things working in their favor:
1) the Lions rank last in the NFL in yards and points allowed
this season, and 2) Rodgers torched Detroit in 2021, passing for
393 yards and six TDs in six quarters of action. If anything can
get No. 12 and this offense back on track, it’s the Lions’ defense.
Given how badly he’s struggled this year, Rodgers does carry some
risk, but he’s a worthwhile gamble as a QB1 here. As for Lazard,
he could be a WR3 if he returns from the shoulder injury that
kept him out Sunday night. If not, slide Romeo Doubs into that
spot.
The highlight of Green Bay’s performance in Buffalo was
their running game, which accounted for 208 yards on 31 attempts
(a very healthy 6.7 YPC). Dillon chipped in with 10 of those carries
for 54 yards and added a nine-yard reception for good measure.
The bruising back could be in for a big day against the league’s
30th-ranked run defense, but there are a pair of caveats. The
Packers typically shy away from their running game, even when
it’s working, and Jones is the star attraction, so Dillon
might not get enough touches to deliver. As an RB3 or flex, Dillon
is a decent selection.
Fade: N/A
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
There’s a lot to like about Williams’ prospects this
Sunday. The former Packer is already motivated to play his former
club, and Green Bay has been only slightly better than the Lions
in run defense as they sit 29th at 141.3 yards per game. Then
there’s Swift, who returned in Week 8 but only had 10 combined
touches to Williams’ 13 -- Swift did play 11 more snaps.
Only Nick Chubb (10) has more rushing scores than Williams (8),
and the veteran looks like a borderline RB2/RB3 for this divisional
matchup.
With T.J. Hockenson being traded to the Vikings and D.J. Chark
(ankle) on IR, Reynolds is the No. 2 option for Detroit’s passing
game behind St. Brown. He’s done nothing in two games since the
bye with 22 yards on three receptions combined, but if the Lions
find themselves playing from behind, he could see a lot of action.
Consider Reynolds a dicey flex with some juice.
Over his last three games, Goff has averaged 259 yards and posted
a combined 1:3 TD-to-INT ratio. For all their struggles, the Packers
rank second in the NFL in pass defense, allowing 174.8 yards per
game via the air -- Josh Allen managed just 13 completions on
Sunday night. Expect a lot of running from Detroit and keep Goff
on your bench.
Ekeler popped up on the injury report with an abdomen injury
causing him to be limited in practice this week. It sounds like
he’s good to go but check his status Friday evening to make
sure. On the field, Ekeler is the team leader in targets (61)
and receptions (53), and is also pacing the Bolts in rushing,
averaging 4.5 yards per carry. He has 10 total touchdowns through
seven games. He’s a set it and forget it RB1.
Normally, Everett would be a fourth option at best in this attack.
But with every viable WR threat either out completely, or playing
at less than full capacity, he’s had a bit of a coming out
in recent weeks. His nine targets against the Seahawks in Week
7 were tied for second on the team and he has 16 total targets
in the least two contests. He has also posted at least five receptions
in three of the last four games. He takes his recent hot streak
to ATL, which is giving up just under 10 fantasy points per game
to TE’s this season. He’s a low-end TE1 play.
Fade: All wide receivers
Word came down this week that Mike
Williams, who leads the team in receiving yards, yards per
catch, 100-yard games and receiving touchdowns, will be out weeks,
not days with the ankle injury suffered in Week 7. There was hope,
certainly amongst some fantasy owners, that last week’s bye would
allow Williams to be ready for a return against the Falcons, but
it’s not to be. Keenan
Allen (hamstring) isn’t completely healthy either and unlikely
to play. Time to look for other options. Josh
Palmer, DeAndre
Carter, Michael
Bandy are likely to be the starting receivers with Palmer
being the only real consideration. His low aDOT might be helpful
in PPR leagues but this a group to avoid.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
The critics will say Allgeier is splitting snaps with Caleb Huntley.
What I see is a guy who has touched the ball at least 15 times
in each of the last three games. Granted, it has been with modest
results behind a below-average o-line. But what the run-first
Falcons hopefully saw last week is what he can do with the ball
in space as a receiver out of the backfield. With even Kyle Pitts
suffering the effects of HC Arthur Smith’s refusal to throw the
ball, Allgeier is the only viable fantasy option in this offense,
albeit as a low end RB2 or flex option.
Pitts made all the highlight reels in Week 8 with his second
touchdown of the season. But while some may see it as a turning
point for his season, I don’t. HC Arthur Smith isn’t
going to suddenly ask him not to block anymore. It was a blip
on the screen of this season, and if you hit on it, great. But
I can’t say that he’s in line for another big day
against a physical Chargers secondary that has done a pretty good
job on TE’s thus far this season.
London hasn’t had more than four catches in a game since
Week 2, and in that same span has eclipsed 50 receiving yards
only once, barely. He hasn’t seen the end zone since Week
3. This much talent being wasted in this offense is bordering
on criminal.
Geno Smith has been one of the surprises halfway through the
season currently sitting as the QB10 in FPts/G. His 1924 yards
ranks 8th in the league and the Arizona defense, while better
than you might expect, has given up the 5th most fantasy points
to QBs including two blow up games to Patrick Mahomes and Andy
Dalton. Smith leads the league with a 72.7% completion percentage.
DK Metcalf (knee) and Tyler Lockett (hamstring) both played through
injuries last week and both found the endzone. Metcalf has double-digit
targets in three out of 8 games this season while Lockett leads
the team in receptions (46) and yards (531). Despite a low-scoring
affair back in Week 6 (SEA 19, ARI 9), this is the second-highest
total game of the week (49.0).
It seems we’ve been targeting the Cardinals defense with
our tight end plays for years, and for good reason. The annually
are a great matchup for the position and this year is no exception.
Only Seattle has given up more receiving yards to the position
and a whopping 7 TD have been scored against them. Problem is,
both Dissly and Fant are seeing a significant number of snaps
making it difficult to pick a favorite. For the season, Dissly
has the slightly higher snap percentage (65 to 60). Fant has more
targets but Dissly has more yards (206) and TDs (3). Both are
viable options this week.
The third wide receiver hasn’t been a factor in the Seattle
offense for many years and there’s no reason to expect Goodwin
to be a thing this week. His five targets in each of the last
two weeks are noteworthy, but he’s missed practice this
week with a groin injury and both Lockett and Metcalf are expected
to play.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Hopkins hasn’t wasted any time getting into the action, posting
two 100-yard receiving games on 27 targets since returning from
his six-game suspension to start the season. The Seahawks have
done a good job against receivers this season, allowing only one
100-yard game (Jerry Jeudy Wk1) but Hopkins is an alpha and his
target share alone is good enough to feel comfortable with him
as a WR1 any week. If you’re concerned about such a thing, Seattle
rookie cornerback Tariq Woolen typically sticks to one side of
the formation so he won’t be shadowing Hopkins all game.
Moore is coming off his best game of the season, a 7-92-1 line
on 8 targets against the Vikings. Playing second fiddle to Hopkins
can have its advantages if the defense’s attention is focused
elsewhere. Moore did have ten targets the last time these two
teams played (Wk6) and the game environment does give hope the
Kyler can support two receivers in this contest even with tight
end Zach Ertz gobbling up receptions over the middle. Flex consideration
is where Moore lands this week.
Conner has missed the last three games with a rib injury but
has been getting in some practice time on a limited basis. On
the field he’s uninspiring, running 3.7 yards every time he touches
the ball and only has 1 TD on the season. Whether or not he plays
is still up in the air, but even if he does, he’s simply not a
trustworthy option as the Cardinals are likely to keep Eno Benjamin
involved limiting Conner’s ceiling. The Seahawks represent a positive
matchup for running backs keeping the door open, but I’d prefer
Eno over the veteran.
There isn’t anyone else doing much of anything in this offense,
so Kupp gets the nod here even if he’s a little less than 100
percent coming off a late-game ankle injury last week. He has
double digit targets in three of the last four games and hasn’t
had less than seven catches since September 25th. He’s seemingly
QB Matthew Stafford’s first read in every situation.
While he got off to a hot start to the season, Higbee has been
reduced to a total of three catches for 22 yards combined over
the last two games. There was a bye in between those games and
the issue, whatever it is, still wasn’t addressed. His run
as a TE1 may be coming to an end.
Robinson has 10 catches on 13 targets over the last two games.
That’s pretty good. But when you bring in a guy with WR1
experience, you don’t expect that to be the high-water mark.
He hasn’t even sniffed a 100-yard game and has just two
scores on the season.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
This offense is in disarray right now, but make no mistake, Brady
will get his. As the screws begin to tighten even more in Tampa,
Brady will throw more, not less. As an example, Brady has at least
40 pass attempts in every game since Week 3. In that same run
he has three 300-yard games and has thrown a touchdown pass in
every game but one this season. Even against a tough Rams defense,
he’s a low-end QB1.
White’s role continues to grow. He has at least seven touches
in each of the last five games, and he has shown an ability to
consistently produce as a runner and a receiver. He’s been
the more explosive back in Tamps this season and it seems inevitable
that he will surpass Leonard Fournette on the depth chart at some
point. The question is when.
Godwin is solid week in and week out, but thought of him being
a game-breaker is losing steam. He doesn’t have a touchdown
or a 100-yard game all season. In PPR league’s Godwin is
fine but it seems like his ceiling is capped given the current
state of the Bucs offense.
Robert Woods has topped 39 yards in a game just once this season.
Four is the high-water mark for receptions and he’s scored one
touchdown. In other words, it’s been ugly for the defacto No.1
receiving option for Tennessee. Ryan Tannehill (ankle) is going
to be less than 100 percent, and Malik Willis threw 10 passes
last week against the Texans, completing six for 55 yards. If
Willis plays, then Woods can be left on your bench. If Tannehill
gives it a go, then the projected negative game script along with
the Chiefs forgiving defense against the pass is enough to make
Woods a Flex option on a week with six teams on bye.
The Titans rank second to last in passing yards per game (147.6),
tied for the second fewest passing TDs (7) and Tannehill’s
best fantasy finish (QB13) came back in Week 1 against the Giants.
You can get behind the potential negative game script and assume
Tennessee will be forced to open it up, but who is Tannehill going
to be throwing it to? With an implied team total of 17, there
just isn’t enough here to consider a hobbled quarterback
on the road in Arrowhead.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Outside of Travis Kelce, it’s been difficult pinpointing which
Chiefs receiver to highlight for fantasy purposes. The distribution
of wealth was something Patrick Mahomes alluded to this preseason
and his words have been spot on. JuJu leads the wideouts receiving
yards (494), targets (48) and plays a healthy 72 percent of the
snaps, second only to Marquez Valdes-Scantling at 74%. Tennessee
has a weak spot in the secondary, giving up the 6th most fantasy
points to the position. Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins and Dyami Brown
have all had 100-yard games against the Titans.
Pacheco was named the “starter” against the 49ers
back in Week 7 and that led to 8 carries, 43 yards, zero targets
and a 30% snap share as KC continued to rotate their three running
backs. I imagine we’ll see Pacheco get the start once again
and if he’s able to impress early, he’ll turn in a
usable fantasy performance as the Chiefs are projected for a positive
game script. If he’s the status quo, then we’ll see
plenty of CEH and McKinnon making this another frustrating week
for fantasy trying to extract value out of the KC backfield.
Stuck in a three-man committee, CEH was living off efficiency
early in the season as he stormed out of the gate with a 7.8 rushing
average and two TDs in the first two weeks. Now that he’s regressed
to the mean, averaging 4.4 yards per carry, the former first round
pick in 2020 is feeling Pacheco nipping at his heels. Andy Reid
is comfortable with Jerick McKinnon as the third-down back so
what’s left for CEH to do?
Mark Andrews is the TE2 in this week’s FFT rankings, and
rightly so. But what we learned last week is that QB Lamar Jackson
really likes throwing to his TE’s. Rookie Isaiah Likely
had six catches for 77 yards and a touchdown and didn’t
get in the game in a real way until midway through the second
quarter. If Andrews (knee, shoulder) is a go, start him. If he
isn’t, then get Likely on your roster and start him too.
In the two games he has played, Edwards has 131 rushing yards
and two touchdowns on 27 carries. That’s solid work in the
pass-happy NFL. The problem is he just can’t stay healthy.
He’s returning from a torn ACL and is now dealing with a
hamstring injury. If he’s good to go, he’s a FLEX
or a TD-dependent low-end RB2. But those TD’s may be hard
to come by given his lack of a role in the passing game, and Lamar
Jackson’s running ability near the goal line.
Duvernay caught everyone’s attention with a broad skill set on
national television last week, and he is becoming an integral
part of the Ravens’ offense. But his versatility hasn’t translated
to fantasy points in any consistent way. Don’t get hooked by one
game. We knew Rashod Bateman wasn’t playing this week before the
news of his surgery so don’t let that boost your reasoning for
Duvernay.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Don’t look now, but Dalton is the 4th-best fantasy QB option
over the last three weeks, averaging 22.6 fantasy points per game.
He’s got three INT’s against his 7 TD’s in that
span, but he’s averaging nearly 40 attempts per game. This
week, he sees a Ravens defense that has been torched by the pass,
allowing over 2100 yards and 12 TD’s through the air.
Hill continues to find ways to be involved. Last week he ran
10 times and threw two passes, but he’s listed as a TE,
at least in most leagues. He’s also been involved as a receiver
with two catches over the last two weeks, and he’s always
a threat to score. The problem is, you never know when it’s
coming. He’s had at least three carries in every game this
season, so he’s a solid FLEX option.
He had a nice start to the season and a big two-TD effort in
Week 7. But then he answered with a 2-14 line last week. It feels
to me like Taysom Hill is stealing reps, and his snaps will go
down even more whenever Jarvis Landry returns. I think we’ve
seen his best effort for this season already.
