Let’s start with this. Gesicki’s designation as a
favorite this week is done under the belief that Higgins (quad),
who has missed two games and is officially listed as doubtful,
won’t be able to suit up on Thursday night. If he does,
disregard everything below and keep him away from your lineup.
Assuming Higgins is out, Gesicki has some juice. Facing the Raiders
last Sunday, he hauled in five passes for 100 yards and a pair
of touchdowns. That followed a 7-73-0 effort in Week 8. The common
factor was Higgins being out of the lineup. It happened in Weeks
1 and 2 as well, and though Gesicki did little in the opener (3-18-0),
he put up 91 yards on seven receptions versus the Chiefs the following
week. Overall, in four games played with Higgins out of action,
Gesicki has averaged 5.5 receptions, 71 yards, and 0.5 TDs. Facing
a Ravens defense that still dwells at the very bottom of the NFL
in passing yards allowed, Gesicki has significant upside.
With Zack Moss (neck) likely out for the rest of the regular
season, the Bengals swung a trade with Chicago for Khalil Herbert,
a back with over 2,000 combined yards in his four-year career
that had fallen out of favor with the Bears. While running backs
are more of a plug-and-play position than most, it might be asking
a lot to have Hebert to suit up on Thursday night. Even if he
does, it’d likely be for a handful of snaps. Brown had already
been moving into the top job before the Moss injury, and on Sunday
with Moss inactive, the second-year back racked up 157 yards and
a touchdown on 32 touches. He was still essentially splitting
time with Moss when the Bengals played Baltimore in Week 5, during
which he turned 15 touches into 54 yards and a score. As noted,
the Ravens are last in pass defense. The flip side is that they’re
first against the run. Brown will get his chances, so he has a
place in your lineup, but he might produce as more of an RB3/flex
than an RB2 on Thursday night.
Fade: N/A
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Acquired before this past Sunday’s matchup with the Broncos, Johnson
was active and played 17 of the club’s 57 offensive snaps. That
was only two behind Nelson Agholor but well below Flowers (30)
and Rashod Bateman (35). While Johnson wasn’t targeted, it’s an
encouraging sign that the team worked him into the offense. Expect
an expanded role on Thursday night, though on the short week it
remains to be seen how much more to expect from the newcomer.
When these two clubs squared off in Week 5, Jackson threw for
348 yards and 4 touchdowns, so the passing game could be featured
again. While it still feels a bit too soon for Johnson to really
contribute, we’ve seen Bateman trail off recently (four catches,
53 yards combined in the last two games), so maybe Johnson gets
going here. As a flex, it might be worth a try.
Coming off a strong month of October, Andrews kicked off November
with a two-catch, 26-yard effort against Denver. It was a disappointing
showing from the veteran tight end, but it underscored just how
touchdown-dependent Andrews has become. Even in Weeks 7 and 8,
when he scored, he only posted 36 and 41 yards, respectively.
For the season, he’s topped 50 yards three times in nine
games but never more than 66. While one of those efforts came
against Cincinnati (4-55-0 in Week 5), that output wasn’t
TE1 production, and the Bengals just did a nice job of limiting
Brock Bowers (5-45-1), who has had a much better year than Andrews
and is one of just two legitimate receiving threats for the Raiders.
Andrews feels like a risk even as a low-end TE1.
Tyrone Tracy is coming off a disappointing 7.9-point performance,
but fantasy managers should start him with confidence in Week
10. One key factor is Tracy’s role within the Giants’
offense. Despite dealing with a concussion heading into Week 9,
Tracy led the way with a 72-percent snap share and 74-percent
opportunity share. Brian Daboll has made it quite clear that Tracy
is his preferred option moving forward.
Along with a workhorse role, Tracy has the best matchup for running
backs in all of football. The Panthers’ defense simply can’t
contain the run. They rank dead last in rushing yards, rushing
touchdowns, and fantasy points allowed to running backs per game.
The Panthers’ 29.3 fantasy points allowed per game to opposing
running backs is the worst mark since at least 2015. Expect Tracy
to have a massive day against this defense.
It’s not just Carolina’s front seven that has struggled
this season; the secondary has been an issue as well. This defense
ranks dead last in yards allowed per pass play and 31st in EPA
per dropback.
Given the efficiency that opposing passing attacks have seen
against the Panthers, it shouldn’t be shocking to find out
that quarterbacks have also succeeded against Carolina. Opposing
quarterbacks are averaging 19.6 FPts/G against the Panthers, the
4th highest per-game average in the league. With a quarterback
like Daniel Jones who can rush for 40 yards and find the endzone
in any given week, this is a matchup that makes him a more than
viable streaming option.
Even early in the year when Wan’Dale Robinson was having
success, targets to Robinson proved to be some of the most inefficient
targets in the game. Among 36 pass catchers with at least 50 targets,
Robinson ranks dead last in yards per target. We’re talking
about a receiver who’s seen 29 targets in the last month
but has scored just 30.3 fantasy points. Unless Robinson changes
his stripes and becomes something more than a purely underneath
receiver, he’s not a starting option in fantasy.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
The Giants join the Panthers in having one of the league’s
worst rushing defenses. New York ranks 32nd in yards allowed per
rush and 28th in rushing yards allowed per game. 16 percent of
carries against this defense go for at least 10 yards. Until Jonathon
Brooks exits his ramp-up period, Chuba Hubbard will maintain a
bell cow role for this offense. It may not look pretty with Bryce
Young under center, but Hubbard should be able to run buck-wild
against the Giants.
Following the departure of Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette has
assumed WR1 duties in Carolina. He’s been successful in that role,
leading the team in targets for two straight games. He’s also
been a fantasy WR3 in both of those games. Given his role as Bryce
Young’s No.1 option, he provides some Flex appeal. However, there’s
always the concern that a Bryce Young-led offense can crumble
at any moment. Young has yet to lead the Panthers to over 300
yards of offense in a single game. That isn’t exactly a recipe
for sustained fantasy success.
Christian McCaffrey would typically fall in the “No Brainer”
tier, but some people may be hesitant to fire him up in his first
game back from injury. Even if he has a slightly reduced workload,
this is absolutely a player who belongs in your lineup.
Let’s take a moment to appreciate what McCaffrey has done
in his time in San Francisco. He’s played 27 games in a
49ers’ uniform. In those 27 games, he’s been a weekly
RB1 21 times and scored at least 20 PPR points 17 times. He’s
also scored 40-plus points on more occasions than he’s scored
fewer than 10. He has been a game-breaker during his time in San
Francisco and belongs in your lineup if he plays.
Despite injuries throughout the San Francisco offense, Brock
Purdy has continued to produce this season. He’s been a
top-10 QB in three straight games and is in line to extend that
streak to four against the Buccaneers this weekend.
Tampa Bay features one of the league’s weaker secondaries. They
rank 3rd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and have allowed
a QB1 performance in eight of nine games this season. The only
player who didn’t cross the QB12 threshold? Spencer Rattler in
a game where Rashid Shaheed and Bub Means were his WR1 and WR2.
The Tampa Bay defense has continually proven to be vulnerable
through the air and Purdy should exploit that on Sunday.
San Francisco is one of the few offenses where fantasy managers
have to worry about there being too many mouths to feed. We have
constantly seen ping-ponging fantasy production among the receiving
weapons in this offense. Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall are
at the bottom of the totem pole and are the most likely to be
boxed out by the truly elite weapons in San Francisco.
There is a world where one of these receivers delivers meaningful
fantasy production thanks to this highly favorable matchup, but
this is a situation where you’d ideally be able to sit both
Jennings and Pearsall and take some time to evaluate the offense
with both Jennings and McCaffrey back in action.
Fade: N/A
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Baker Mayfield has been one of fantasy’s MVPs this season. He
is the QB2 on the season and has delivered consistent production
throughout the season. However, we have seen glimpses of the floor
of this offense without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the field.
Prior to the game-tying two-minute drill on Monday night, Tampa
Bay had just 213 yards of total offense and it was frankly quite
ugly on the offensive side of the ball. It seems that we’ll get
more of the same against a talented San Francisco defense, making
Mayfield a risky option to rely on this week.
The division of the Tampa Bay backfield has made it quite difficult
to project the weekly outlook of Bucky Irving and Rachaad White.
At this point, there are two paths to these backs returning weekly
value - finding the endzone or racking up receptions. Unfortunately,
this work is also divided. Across the last month, White has a
route participation of 45 percent while Irving sits at 37 percent.
In the same time frame, White holds a 60-percent snap share in
goal-to-go situations and Irving holds a 59-percent snap share
in these situations. Neither has a significant edge when it comes
to the high-value touches which makes it very difficult to trust
either one on a weekly basis.
Fade: Tampa Bay WRs
Talent is required when it comes to earning targets on an NFL
field. Without any talented wide receivers in the mix in recent
weeks, targets have predictably gone elsewhere. In Week 8, TEs
and RBs accounted for 48 percent of the targets. This number rose
to 58.1 percent in Week 10. Until Mike Evans returns to the field,
this offense will flow through Cade Otton and the running backs.
None of the receivers in Tampa Bay should be considered as fantasy
starters.
Darnell Mooney has been the same player throughout the 2024 season.
He has not been productive enough through the air to be impactful
in fantasy lineups in games where he does not score a touchdown.
However, he’s had a nose for the endzone this season, scoring
in four games and finishing as a WR2 or better in all four.
Mooney’s boom-bust nature of production would typically
have him in the “On the Fence” tier, but there’s
a chance he’s the team’s WR1 this week. Drake London
has been dealing with a hip injury and has yet to practice in
full this week. If London doesn’t play, Mooney is an easy
choice in lineups. Even if London doesn’t play, Mooney is
a strong start in anticipation of him carving out a larger role
while London is a bit banged up.
Aside from two dominant performances against the Buccaneers,
Kirk Cousins hasn’t done much to prove that he’s a
viable fantasy starter. He’s been a weekly QB1 just one
other time this season and has not thrown for 250 yards in a single
game outside of the Tampa Bay matchups. Cousins requires either
a trailing game script or a back-and-forth track meet for him
to deliver a QB1 day. A game with the depleted New Orleans offense
isn’t going to create that sort of environment. The Falcons
will be leaning on the ground game and Cousins will struggle to
fill up the stat sheet.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
The vast injuries within the New Orleans offense led to Taysom
Hill playing 44 percent of snaps last week, just the second time
he’s hit a 40-percent snap share since the beginning of
the 2023 season. Fantasy managers were treated to the Taysom Hill
special - 60 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown en route to
16 fantasy points.
With Chris Olave out and Mason Tipton operating as the de facto
WR1, it’s likely we’ll see a fair amount of Hill once again while
seeing him pop up in some red zone packages. As is often the case
with Hill, this is really a bet on his ability to find the end
zone.
It is impossible to start anyone involved with the New Orleans
passing attack this week. Mason
Tipton, Cedrick
Wilson, and Marquez
Valdes-Scantling will be the team’s trio of WRs against the
Falcons. That’s really all you need to know. New Orleans was able
to throw for 230 yards last weekend against a helpless Carolina
defense, but this is a weapons arsenal that we’ll be contained
by any competent secondary. Don’t be fooled by chasing vacated
targets and just avoid the situation as a whole.
Since seeing 0 targets in a 33-10 win over the Saints in Week
8, Courtland Sutton has seen 21 targets over the ensuing two games
(and completed a pass in both contests as well). The fairly involved
Sutton is more likely to show up in a game full of negative game
script, but despite back-to-back 100-yard performances, he’ll
be facing a far tougher defense than the Ravens or Panthers. The
Chiefs are one of just three NFL teams yet to give up 1000 total
yards to opposing receivers.
The news doesn’t get much better for Sutton when you look
at his own history against Kansas City: In 9 career games against
the Chiefs, he’s averaged just 49.1 yards per game and has
just 2 total touchdowns. Coupled with the fact that rookie QB’s
have thrown just 4 total touchdowns in seven starts against the
Andy Reid’s Chiefs since 2021, both yardage production and
red zone opportunities may be very hard to come by. Fantasy owners
with depth who are bold enough to sit Sutton after two big outings,
may very well be rewarded.
Nix has had a number of noteworthy statistical performances,
especially as the season has progressed, but he’s now failed
to throw a touchdown in five of nine games and has produced 1
total touchdown or less in all but three performances. There’s
a significant likelihood that this happens again versus the Chiefs,
and Nix is arguably best viewed as a low end QB2 for the match
up.
Running back Javonte Williams has seen at least 14 touches in
three straight games, including in a blowout loss to the Ravens
last week, and in six of his teams last eight matchups. During
that span, he’s produced at least 9 points in five of those
six contests, but only produced double figure performances twice.
Williams tends to carry more of a solid floor than a strong ceiling,
but even his floor may be very unreliable against a Chiefs team
has been the most crippling to opposing backs. Williams is a deep
play only for this matchup.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
The Broncos present a notably tougher matchup than Mahomes faced
in the Bucs last week, but while expectations should be tempered
after his long-awaited breakout, there is still good reason to
value Mahomes as no less than a low-end QB1 for Week 10. With
wideout DeAndre Hopkins in the swing of things (60% snap rate
in Week 9), fantasy owners can fire up Mahomes unless they enjoy
an elite alternative.
Meanwhile, Travis Kelce draws a Broncos team that has only faced
three tight ends who’ve been notable in fantasy football this
year; Cade Otton (8.2 points), Brock Bowers (19.7 points), and
– stretching the limits a bit - Mark Andrews (3.6 points). Andrews
has been touchdown dependent, but the volume-based pair of Otton
and Bowers had no trouble putting up quality performances against
Denver.
Kelce’s volume has yet to be slowed by Hopkins’ arrival
(actually, it has increased), and despite another incredibly low
yards per catch outing last week (7.7), if volume is the name
of the game, Kelce still fits the mold.
DeAndre Hopkins big day in Week 9 is a sign of things to come,
with his veteran savvy, high-end route running and still-above-average
skills coupled with the talents of Mahomes. The Broncos defense
features shut down corner Patrick Surtain II and is incredibly
tough against wide receivers (9th fewest FPts/G allowed). It would
not be surprising for Hopkins to have a quieter showing in Week
10. While he seems poised to at least be elevated to WR2 status
for the stretch run with Mahomes, Hopkins can be viewed more as
a Flex this week.
Worthy was not only unable to capitalize on a highly favorable
match up against Tampa, but more devastatingly for fantasy owners,
he ended up with no receptions and negative yardage for the game.
Worthy will look to bounce back against a better Broncos defense,
but for the boom-or-bust rookie, this week the bust risk is just
too great.
Amari Cooper has played two games with the Bills and they’ve
come with wildly different results. In his first outing, Cooper
drew five targets on just 12 routes and finished as the weekly
WR14 despite a limited role. His second game was less encouraging
as Cooper finished with just 1.3 points on two targets.
Despite the mixed bag of results, the Buffalo offense did not
feature an alpha receiver prior to Cooper’s arrival and it’s quite
clear that he was acquired to fill that role. Now with three weeks
under his belt in Buffalo, he should take on a full-time role
and assume WR1 duties. As Josh Allen’s No. 1 target, he’ll be
a weekly Flex option at a minimum.
Amari Cooper may be stepping in as the top target earner, but
Keon Coleman has the skill set to overcome reduced volume. Dating
back to his days at Michigan State and Florida State, Coleman
has been known for his ability to come down with contested catches
and create explosive plays. He’s demonstrated that ability
in Buffalo with multiple receptions of 40-plus yards on the year.
Against an Indianapolis defense that has struggled to contain
outside receivers, Coleman could still produce with Cooper by
his side.
Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid will be the two players who
are most heavily impacted by the emergence of Amari Cooper. Their
low-aDOT roles rely on high volume to produce in fantasy. They
were high-end target earners to begin with as neither had eclipsed
a 20-percent target share on the year. As primarily underneath
receivers who will see their volume in the offense slashed with
Cooper in the building, it’s hard to rely on either Shakir
or Kincaid moving forward.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Whether it’s due to Josh Downs’ talent or Michael
Pittman’s injury, Downs has emerged as the No.1 target in
the Indianapolis offense. Pittman has out-targeted Downs just
once this year and Downs has one fewer target on the year despite
playing two fewer games than Pittman. This also happens to be
a phenomenal matchup for Downs. Buffalo’s usage of shell
coverage funnels targets to slot receivers. The Bills rank third
in both targets and receptions allowed to slot receivers. Downs,
who’s run 85 percent of his routes from the slot, should
thrive in Week 10.
As the weeks wear on, it becomes harder and harder to buy into
Michael Pittman Jr. being a fantasy-relevant receiver. He has
not seen more than six targets in over a month and he has consistently
played second fiddle to Josh Downs. With just two WR2 finishes
on the year, it’s hard to feel comfortable with Pittman
in lineups in a matchup that favors Downs.
As the clear lead back in the Pittsburgh offense, Najee Harris
has provided a solid floor this season while also delivering enough
RB1 week performances to make him a weekly must-start in most
matchups. He’s carried the ball at least 13 times in every
game, including 40 total carries over his past two contests. While
his passing game usage hasn’t been spectacular, he’s
still on pace to make 36 receptions this season and he typically
adds a few points in that department in just about every game,
seemingly regardless of how the game plays out.
Harris went over 100 rushing yards in each of the three games
leading into Pittsburgh’s bye, which certainly has his fantasy
managers excited about his prospects for the second half of the
season, but we should be a bit careful given that he accomplished
those numbers in games against teams that have struggled to move
the ball this season in the Raiders, Jets, and Giants. Still,
with this potentially being a shootout against the Commanders,
Harris is a strong bet to touch the ball 15 or more times this
week and he could approach 20 touches, with multiple receptions,
if the Steelers are passing near end of the game.
George Pickens has been the clear-cut WR1 in Pittsburgh this
season, but the overall passing game has lacked the efficiency
for him to be an every-week WR1 or even WR2. Sure, most managers
will probably have him in their lineups this weekend and rightfully
so given his talent profile and role in the offense, but it’s
worth noting that he’s still only scored one touchdown this
season while reaching 100 yards just twice. He’s a field-stretching
WR who typically doesn’t see huge volume as he’s only
reached 10 targets in one game, so he really needs the big plays
and touchdowns to boost him into being a strong fantasy play.
The Pittsburgh offense is so conservative, though, that he’s
been held to 12 or fewer PPR fantasy points in five of his eight
games this season.
Again, it’s tough to bench him, but the Steelers have only
reached 300 passing yards in one game this season, so Pickens
really needs to get in the end zone to become a high-end fantasy
starter in this offense.
The “shiny new toy” argument will be made about Pittsburgh’s
newest acquisition, Mike Williams, but don’t fall for this
trap. The wide receiver left one low-volume passing attack in
New York to join another low-volume passing attack in Pittsburgh.
We’ve seen other non-elite receivers change teams mid-season
over the past few years and most of them do not immediately play
a full snap count in their first game with their new team. Additionally,
Williams’ field stretching style overlaps quite a bit with
Pickens so he may not be running deep nearly as often in this
offense as he did in New York or Los Angeles. Sure, moving up
to being the likely WR2 as opposed to the WR3 he was is helpful,
and we may yet see some fruit fall from this tree this season,
but there is just way too much risk involved with starting him
this week in normal fantasy leagues.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Fantasy managers escaped what could’ve been a brutal fantasy
performance this past week when Terry McLaurin scored two touchdowns
on just two catches and three targets against the Giants. This
low target volume is worrisome on its face, but a deeper look
into what happened in this game will show that quarterback Jayden
Daniels attempted just 22 passes.
The Commanders’ passing game has typically been low-volume
and extremely high efficiency this season so this one-off low-target
performance from McLaurin should be forgiven. Despite just one
game with 10 targets this season, McLaurin has now managed to
finish with 13 or more PPR fantasy points in seven straight games.
This matchup against the Steelers is a relatively difficult one,
with Pittsburgh being in the top-10 most difficult matchups for
opposing fantasy wide receivers. They’ve also given up a league-fewest
four touchdowns to the position. Still, at least one opposing
wide receiver has scored double-digit PPR fantasy points against
them in all but two games this season. This is a lower-ceiling
opportunity for McLaurin than he usually has, but he’s been consistent
enough to trust even in more difficult matchups.
Robinson missed Week 9 with a hamstring injury that is also limiting
him in practice this week so fantasy managers need to keep an
eye on this one as we head into the weekend. He is looking more
likely to play, however, and that should mean a return to the
normal Washington backfield split which has overwhelmingly favored
Robinson over the other players in this backfield.
Robinson has carried the ball at least 12 times in all but one
game this season, and in that game where he didn’t reach
that number, he still managed to score two touchdowns prior to
being knocked out of the game with an injury. This usage has allowed
Robinson to finish with double-digit PPR fantasy points in six
of his first seven games despite the fact that he’s only
exceeded one catch in two games.
He’d probably be a “favorite” in this article
if his health wasn’t a concern, but we have to be a bit
careful given that the Commanders could still end up limiting
his usage. We likely won’t have confirmation about this,
so consider this added risk when making your game-day decisions.
Robinson’s absence in Week 9 was a bit of a surprise as
most experts seemed to believe that he’d be active on game
day. This shift in the backfield led to Austin Ekeler seeing his
strongest carry number yet this season, with 11 of them which
he took for 42 yards including a touchdown. Ekeler was also active
in the passing game as he caught three more passes for 41 yards.
This was Ekeler’s best fantasy performance of the season
and it will likely lead to many managers believing that it will
continue into this week even if Robinson is active on game day.
The unfortunate reality, though, is that while Ekeler’s fantasy
production spiked, his overall usage wasn’t significantly better
in Week 9 than it was in any previous game. In fact, Chris Rodriguez
matched Ekeler’s carry total and was even a bit more effective
on a per-carry basis, while Jeremy McNichols added eight touches
of his own. This meant that while Ekeler led the backfield, he
still didn’t even manage to play 50 percent of the team’s snaps,
while both Rodriguez and McNichols were on the field for more
than 30 percent of the snaps.
With that type of backfield split being the upside even if Robinson
is out, it’s hard to imagine that Ekeler can deliver more
RB1 performances unless he has an extremely high touchdown efficiency
number. Worse yet, if Robinson does play, Ekeler probably returns
to being a five-to-eight carry player who will make a couple of
catches in the game but won’t be utilized much near the
goal line. As such, he’s probably not worthy of being in
most lineups other than as a desperate low-end Flex option.
The Jaguars offer arguably the juiciest fantasy matchup for wide
receivers and quarterbacks alike. Jacksonville ranks 1st in fantasy
points allowed to quarterbacks and 5th when it comes to wide receivers.
Sam Darnold has proven to be a matchup-based starter this season
and this happens to be a matchup where Darnold can thrive. Jacksonville
ranks 31st in yards per pass play and 32nd in EPA per dropback.
With Justin Jefferson and company by his side, Darnold should
have no issue picking apart this defense.
Jordan Addison is one of the weapons who will play alongside
Jefferson and should play a significant role in Minnesota’s
success through the air. Throughout his career, Addison’s
fantasy value has been driven by his ability to generate explosive
plays and find the endzone. Against a secondary that has allowed
19 receiving touchdowns in nine games, Addison can make a splash
this week.
As soon as T.J. Hockenson is on the field for a full complement
of snaps, he’ll be a weekly starter in fantasy lineups.
The only issue is that he is still in his ramp-up period and played
just 45 percent of snaps last week. This is most likely a scenario
where you have to see Hockenson in a full-time role before you
can insert him into your lineup.
Fade: N/A
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
The Week 10 outlook for Brian Thomas Jr. is absolutely brutal.
The Vikings’ defense has been a favorable matchup for wide
receivers this season, but the current version of the Jacksonville
offense may not be able to sustain meaningful production from
Thomas.
Trevor Lawrence is “unlikely” to play this week, meaning we’ll
likely see Mac Jones under center for the Jaguars. Lawrence’s
15 percent deep throw rate (4th among starting QBs) played a huge
role in Thomas’s ability to reach his weekly ceiling. With Jones
under center, we’ll see less aggressive quarterback play and a
worse overall offense. Thomas may see enough of the shallow and
intermediate looks to put together a respectable week, but it’s
hard to feel confident in him producing chunk plays with Jones
as his quarterback.
As many expected, Travis Etienne returned in Week 9 and this
backfield was a complete mess. Tank Bigsby played 57 percent of
the snaps while Etienne was out there for just 29 percent of snaps.
D’Ernest Johnson also played a meaningful role on passing
downs, playing 22 percent of the snaps overall.
This is not what we’ll see from this backfield every week,
but it’s quite clear that this backfield will be some form
of a committee moving forward. The Jaguars are likely going to
be playing from behind in this one so it’s hard to rely
on any piece of this committee, especially if Johnson is limiting
the route participation of Etienne and Bigsby.
After topping 40 yards in a game just once in five Jacoby Brissett
starts, Henry has topped that mark four times in a row following
the switch to Drake Maye (though Brissett did come on in relief
in Week 8). The volume of targets has also ticked up significantly
with Henry being targeted 23 times over the last three weeks.
It’s no surprise as young quarterbacks frequently look for safer
throws that typically go to tight ends or running backs, plus
New England’s receiver corps is shaky at best. The Bears saw that
phenomenon two weeks ago when Jayden Daniels threw to Zach Ertz
11 times, resulting in a 7-77-0 effort. While he’s unlikely to
push toward top-tier status, Henry looks like a solid midrange
TE1 option this Sunday.
Although he’s been far from perfect, Maye has injected
an element of danger into the Patriots offense that wasn’t
present when Brissett was under center. In three full games, the
rookie has averaged 242 yards passing, 50 yards rushing, 2 TDs,
and 1.33 INTs per outing. In all honesty, that’s a better
box score than a lot of more established quarterbacks have been
delivering. The most interesting element for fantasy owners is
the running. In his last two games, including one where he departed
early on with a concussion, Maye has run 11 times for 141 yards
(12.8 YPC) and a touchdown. This all points toward the rookie
being a possible QB1 candidate. Chicago is a tough defense, though,
ranking eighth against the pass and having more interceptions
(7) than TD passes allowed (5). It makes Maye a very risky option
to be sure, though his running exploits provide him with viable
upside.
On paper, the Bears’ weakness defensively is the run. Through
eight games, they’ve given up 131.6 yards per game (20th) and
5.0 yards per carry (29th). With a young quarterback, leaning
on Stevenson and, to a lesser extent, Antonio Gibson, seems like
a good plan of attack. Since Maye became the starter, however,
Stevenson has turned 37 carries into 82 yards (2.2 YPC), with
Gibson logging 29 yards on 22 runs (1.3 YPC). You can still talk
yourself into Stevenson as an RB3 or flex -- he has scored four
times in the past two weeks -- but you’ll likely be relying on
more red-zone exploits for him to deliver a decent fantasy return.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
A long-time fixture in the no-brainer section, Moore’s season-to-date
numbers simply no longer warrant that designation. Outside of
his 5-105-2 effort against an awful Carolina team, the veteran
wideout is averaging 4.6 receptions for 38 yards in seven games
with just one touchdown. That’s dismal production. We know the
talent is there -- he put up a 96-1,364-8 last year with Justin
Fields delivering the passes -- but in the results-based world
of fantasy football we’re not seeing enough. As such, you’d be
well within your rights to stick Moore on your bench and hope
he turns things around. You can also roll the dice and keep him
active, hoping that a Pats defense that struggled to contain the
trio of Mason Rudolph, Calvin Ridley, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
makes Moore look more like the 2023 version.
In two games since the Bye, Odunze has led the Bears in receiving
both times. While it was a modest 3-41-0 performance in Week 8,
the rookie caught five passes for 104 yards in their loss to the
Cardinals last Sunday. That last effort was his second game of
100-plus yards this season, and the first with Keenan Allen active.
Beyond those two outings, Odunze’s production has been disappointing,
finishing with less than 45 yards in his other six games. That
makes his recent play a bit of a Rorschach test. Is he really
trending upwards as he gets more comfortable in the offense? Or
is it more an outlier like Week 3 (6-112-1), where he then went
on to manage 131 yards combined over his next four games? If you
believe it’s the former, you can try Odunze as a flex.
Wide receiver Calvin Ridley has now seen at least 8 targets in
each of the last four games, and following the trade of DeAndre
Hopkins, the production has come along to match the volume. Ridley
had 15 catches for 216 yards over the last two games, making a
case that he could finally be the WR2 many a fantasy manager anticipated
him being prior to the season.
It’s unclear who Ridley’s QB will be for Week 10, at this moment,
though the team says that Will Levis will return to being the
starter once healthy. How this effects Ridley remains to be seen,
but despite Levis’ arm strength, results from earlier this year
suggests there’s risk of a downgrade. To top matters off, Ridley
faces one of the toughest defenses in the league with the Chargers
giving up the 6th fewest points to opposing receivers. If Mason
Rudolph starts, Ridley can be considered a fair Flex play, but
he is a shakier option with Levis, at least until the 2nd year
QB proves he can make a connection with his top receiver.
With Tyjae Spears recently dealing with a hamstring injury, Tony
Pollard has seen at least 20 carries in back-to-back games, and
last week rumbled for 128 yards on a whopping 28 carries. Spears
returned to being a full participant on Thursday, while Tony Pollard
was suddenly a non-participant with a foot injury. Even when Spears
was active, Pollard was typically seeing 20 touches a game, so
Spears return appears to be more of a minor than major threat
to his teammate’s workload. On the other hand, if Pollard does
miss Sunday’s game, Spears would be thrust into RB1 duties.
Whomever is the team’s primary running back this week,
they’ll have to deal with the Chargers defense which has
allowed the second fewest points to opposing backs. This reality
pushes Pollard back into flex territory and likely leaves Spears
as a low-end flex if Pollard misses.
Whomever starts at QB for the Titans this week, they will have
their hands full with a Chargers defense that has produced more
interceptions (9) than touchdown passes allowed (7). Rudolph has
fared better than Levis, but neither tends to offer a lot of fantasy
appeal, even in fair less difficult match ups. Both are safe sits.
Veteran wide receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has worked his way
back into the Titans offense, scoring a touchdown in four consecutive
games after going completed untargeted through his team’s
first four contests. He’s also seen his snap rate jump to
92 and 97 percent in the last two weeks since DeAndre Hopkins
was traded away. But Westbrook-Ikhine appears largely touchdown
dependent, having a high of just 50 yards even during his surge.
The Chargers have given up just 6 touchdowns to receivers all
season, meaning that Westbrook-Ikhine is far more likely to explore
his floor than hit his ceiling in Week 10.
Chigoziem Okonkwo has just 5 touchdowns in 43 career games and
is facing a Chargers defense that has yet to give up a touchdown
to opposing tight ends this year. If you’re looking for
a deep play, Okonkwo is worth passing over.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
McConkey followed up his 111-yard, 2 touchdown performance against
the Saints with his third straight game of at least 5 receptions,
producing 64 yards in the process. He’s also WR17 in FPts/G over
that span. He’s becoming a more consistent option for Justin Herbert
and the Chargers. With cornerbacks Chidobe Awuzie and L’Jarius
Sneed continuing to be sidelined for the Titans, McConkey seems
poised for WR2 production against a diminished Tennessee secondary.
Ranked 13th in fantasy points per game at running back, J.K.
Dobbins faces off against a Titans defense that has surrendered
5 rushing touchdowns and a receiving touchdown to backs in the
last three weeks. As such, Dobbins can be fired up as an RB1 for
week 10 against the Titans.
Justin Herbert has put together a string of encouraging performances,
flirting with QB1 status for the first time in almost a year and
a half. The growth of rookie Ladd McConkey and second year prospect
Quentin Johnston seem to be playing a major part in the Chargers
ability to let Herbert open up the passing attack. This week,
Herbert draws Tennessee as he seeks to continue his rise.
The Titans have primarily been hurt by quarterbacks who are highly
mobile, surrendering QB1 performances to Malik Willis, Josh Allen
and Drake Maye. Allen, oddly, did most of his work through the
air, but Maye rushed for 95 yards and Willis picked up 73 and
a rushing score. Herbert doesn’t carry the threat of high-end
mobility (just 85 rushing yards for the year), and so he’ll likely
have to be the Titans defense with his arm, where they’ve been
toughest.
The Titans have given up more than 206 yards passing just once
this season, and have allowed under 100 yards to opposing quarterbacks
on three different occasions. Injuries to their top 2 corners
and the trade of well-rounded linebacker Ernest Jones IV does
make them more vulnerable in the passing game, so there is more
potential for a QB1 ceiling from Herbert than might be typical
versus the Titans. He can be viewed as a high end QB2 for this
one.
Another consequence of the loss of Ernest Jones IV has been in
coverage of tight ends. While the Titans have allowed the 7th
fewest points to the position, you wouldn’t be able to tell the
last two weeks since the trade. In Week 8, Sam LaPorta momentarily
regained some of the magic of his rookie season with a 6-48-1
line against the Titans, and Hunter Henry followed that with a
7-56-0 line in Week 9. The Titans had not surrendered more than
6.1 fantasy points to a tight end prior to the LaPorta and Henry
scores.
Will Dissly is not in the same tier as LaPorta or Henry, but
he has enough talent that if you are short-handed at the position,
he can be considered a streaming option.
DeVonta Smith is dealing with a hamstring injury that has limited
him in practice this week, but he seems to be on track to be active
this weekend. Assuming he is, fantasy managers should be excited
to get him in their lineups as he has been extremely productive
in almost every game he’s played this season. Smith has
scored 14.9 or more PPR fantasy points in all but one game he’s
been active for in 2024 and he’s now scored a touchdown
in three of his past four games.
If A.J. Brown is forced to miss this week’s game with the knee
injury he’s been dealing with that knocked him out of the game
in Week 9, then Smith’s target share could see a considerable
jump. In that scenario, Smith could actually make a case to be
a solid WR1 in this matchup against a struggling Cowboys secondary
that conceded three touchdowns to the Falcons’ wide receivers
this past week. Even if Brown is active, though, Smith makes for
a strong WR2 play, as usual, and he’ll likely be a focal point
in the passing game against a Dallas defense he’s managed to score
four touchdowns against over his past four games against them.
The injury-riddled 2024 season has been a source of extreme frustration
for fantasy managers who watched A.J. Brown miss three games earlier
this season and then get knocked out early this past week during
the Eagles’ victory over the Jaguars. Brown has delivered
in the games he’s played in, other than Week 9 due to the
injury, but we now have to wonder whether he’ll even be
active this weekend when the Eagles head to Dallas to face the
Cowboys.
Dallas seems to be in full-on freefall mode at the moment and
this could be a juicy matchup for the Eagles passing game, but
his knee injury makes it tough to trust that he’s going
to be his usual WR1 self. Fantasy managers will probably have
to keep him in their lineups given his high-end WR1 upside if
he does play, but it wouldn’t be all that surprising if
he missed the game or worse yet was active and played on a limited
snap count.
The tight end landscape has shifted this season after it started
off in absolute shambles, so Dallas Goedert’s return to
the Eagles’ lineup will not likely be met with the same
enthusiasm that it would’ve been had he been able to return
a few weeks ago. Still, Goedert is a name that most fantasy managers
are aware of and it’s likely that he’ll be the best
option for a lot of teams despite it being his first game back
after a three-week stint on the sidelines.
Goedert’s return certainly makes things better for quarterback
Jalen Hurts, but Goedert himself faces a number of potential problems,
particularly if both Brown and Smith are active. Goedert has historically
performed best when one of those two players is inactive, and
that’s particularly true with Smith. He also faces a Cowboys
defense that has been quite solid against most tight ends that
they’ve faced this season. The only tight end who caught
more than four passes against them this season was George Kittle
who has been a nightmare for just about every defense. Goedert
should be active this weekend so he’ll probably be in most
lineups, but this is a tough matchup for him on paper.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
The absence of Dak Prescott is going to have a significant impact
on this Cowboys offense and there’s plenty of reason to believe
that fantasy managers could be dealing with a situation similar
to what the Dolphins’ pass catchers were in when Tua Tagovailoa
was out. However, Cooper Rush has proven to at least be competent
in the past and he’s had a history of success at getting the ball
to CeeDee Lamb in particular.
In six career games with Rush at quarterback, Lamb has averaged
9.5 targets, over six receptions, and 82 yards per game. The offense
has been significantly less high-scoring with Rush at quarterback,
so Lamb’s touchdown opportunities have been limited and
he’s scored only twice in those games, but he’s still
been productive enough to be in fantasy lineups.
Additionally, the Cowboys are likely to struggle to defend the
Eagles’ offense in this game, so don’t be surprised
if this ends up being a game where they have to pass more often
than they’d probably like to, which could mean a high target
volume for Lamb.
An injury to Dak Prescott has caused a sudden shift in the Dallas
offense and it could mean an unusually heavy workload for running
back Rico Dowdle. Dowdle was the beneficiary of Ezekiel Elliott
being inactive this past week and he managed to touch the ball
17 times for 107 total yards and a touchdown. Including the five
receptions, this was Dowdle’s best fantasy performance of the
2024 season.
Elliott is expected back on the field this week which does complicate
things, but Dowdle has been by far the most efficient player in
this backfield and he should again be in line to lead the group
in touches. With Cooper Rush at quarterback, Dowdle could also
be utilized more often in the passing game, which would reality
help with his floor given that the Cowboys’ offense is not
expected to be very high-scoring without Prescott.
Dowdle is a decent RB2 this week, but don’t expect a huge
ceiling in this struggling Dallas offense.
Fade: All other Cowboys Pass-Catchers
While Cooper Rush has proven himself to be a decent enough quarterback
at getting the ball to CeeDee Lamb in particular, the truth is
that there just isn’t a ton of volume to go around to the
other pass-catchers in this offense. The newly acquired Jonathan
Mingo joins a congested group of unproductive pass-catchers like
Brandin Cooks, and Jalen Tolbert.
Tight end Jake Ferguson could prove himself to be a viable option
this week, but there’s a strong risk that the Cowboys’
passing game is just too low volume to make anyone other than
Lamb a decent option for fantasy purposes. He saw 10 targets this
past week, so feel okay about starting him in seasonal leagues,
but he’s probably a player to avoid in DFS lineups.
The Cardinals’ defense has been better against opposing
receivers recently, having not given up a receiving touchdown
in the last three weeks. That coincides with a increase in snaps
for rookie second round corner Max Melton, who has played all
but 2 snaps in the last two weeks. But neither Melton nor any
other Cardinals corner has shown themselves to be a shutdown defender,
and that bodes well for the talents of Garrett Wilson and Davante
Adams.
Wilson has seen at least 8 targets in all but one game this season,
and his target share has not been disrupted by Adams arrival,
seeing 18 over the last two weeks. He’s also posted at least
90 yards receiving in four of the last five games, and now has
5 touchdowns. To top it off, he leads the NFL in receptions. He’s
a must start.
Meanwhile, new teammate Davante Adams rekindled his connection
with Aaron Rodgers in his third week with the Jets. Putting up
7-91-1 on 11 targets, Adams is now WR28 in points per game, and
with the upgrade at QB via trade, he should continue to rise into
the Top 25. He’s a WR2 against the Cardinals.
Has the concoction of cayenne pepper and water unlocked a fountain
of youth for Aaron Rodgers? Time may tell, but after boasting
that he felt as healthy as he has in a long time prior to Week
9, Rodgers had his first three-touchdown game of the season.
Perhaps the biggest fountain of youth Rodgers is enjoying is
his reuniting with Davante Adams. Over the last two weeks, Rodgers
has thrown 5 touchdowns against no interceptions, and in the three
weeks since Adams arrival, teams have had a harder time blitzing
the Jets, recording just 4 sacks against the veteran QB.
Rodgers carries more upside with Adams on board, and is now more
of a high end QB2 than a low end QB2 option, but expectations
should be tempered beyond that, as he’s yet to produce a
300-yard passing game and offers no rushing upside, having rushed
for -1 yards over the last five weeks.
Tyler Conklin followed up reaching the end zone in consecutive
games with a 1 catch, negative 3-yard performance last week. The
game offers fantasy streamers a reminder that Conklin can disappear
just as quickly as he appears, having sported 10 or less receiving
yards in five of the Jets nine games this year. He’s far
safer to sit than to play, especially against a Cardinals defense
that has given up the 9th fewest points to opposing tight ends.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
James Conner continues to be one of the most consistent backs
in the NFL, seeing at least 19 touches for the third-straight
game last week, and 7th time this season. Points are up at the
running back position and Conner currently finds himself just
inside RB2 territory, at RB No.24 overall. While pass defense
is the Jets stronger suit, they have allowed the 11th fewest points
to opposing backs and that is enough to push Conner firmly back
into Flex territory.
The Jets defense has stifled tight ends like few others have,
allowing no tight end to score more than 8.1 fantasy points this
season, and holding the No.1 tight end overall (George Kittle)
to just 6 points. At a position where there are few who draw the
volume that McBride does, nor produce the results, McBride remains
a TE1 for the matchup, but he’s much more likely to hang
closer to his floor than his ceiling versus New York.
Kyler Murray lands the unfortunate task of taking on a Jets defense
that had held 3 different starting QBs to under 10 fantasy points
this season, and just held C.J. Stroud to a completion rate of
under 40%. To make matters more difficult, the Jets matchup very
well against his favorite target, Trey McBride. Murray will have
trouble getting out of QB2 territory for this one.
Jameson Williams had the fantasy community fooled through two
weeks of the season by making up think that he could be a high-volume
receiver. After seeing 20 targets in Weeks 1 & 2, Williams
combined for 10 targets in his next four contests. He did not
hit a 15-percent target share in any of those games.
While Williams may not be a consistent piece of the Detroit offense,
he still has the big-play ability to produce in fantasy with just
a few targets. In the four-game stretch where Williams had just
10 targets, he still had two games with at least 16 PPR points.
Williams is a touchdown waiting to happen and it makes him a high-ceiling
Flex option in just about every game he plays.
Despite being an MVP candidate and leading the best offense in
the NFL, Jared Goff is not a fantasy starter. Goff just needs
so many things to break right to produce a QB1 week in fantasy.
He needs the Lions’ run game to struggle, he needs the team’s
touchdowns to come through the air, and he needs the Lions’
opponent to keep up with them on offense.
These things haven’t come together very often and Goff
has finished inside the top 18 quarterbacks just three times this
season. Goff has thrown for three touchdowns in a game and still
finished as the QB20 because it required just 85 passing yards
for him to do it. The Lions’ offense can just get it done
in so many different ways that it’s tough to have Goff in
your starting lineup.
One player who hasn’t reaped the rewards of the Lions’
offensive success is Sam LaPorta. He has taken a back seat in
the offense this season and has scored more than 15 PPR points
just once. The fact of the matter is that LaPorta simply isn’t
drawing targets. He’s been held to a single-digit target
share in four games this season and led the team in targets just
once. It’s hard to have any faith in him being a consistent
producer with such limited usage.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Nico Collins has not yet practiced this week, so it appears that
Tank Dell will be the team’s WR1 for at least one more game. Dell
thrived in this role last week, accounting for 29 percent of the
targets and 30 percent of the air yards dished out by C.J. Stroud.
These are both elite marks for a receiver and Dell should continue
to see this usage with Collins on the sidelines.
This is also a plus matchup for Dell in Week 10. The Lions have
a suspect secondary and also force teams into negative game scripts,
both of which create a recipe for success for wide receivers.
Detroit allows the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing
receivers and Dell shouldn’t have an issue getting things
going against this defense.
The loss of Nico Collins (hamstring) has been detrimental to
C.J. Stroud’s fantasy value; he does not have a finish better
than QB15 since Collins suffered his hamstring injury. Stroud
hasn’t even been among the QB2 ranks in each of the last
three weeks.
It’s not simply the lack of Collins’ presence that
is causing Stroud to struggle in fantasy. The Texans have adopted
a completely different offensive philosophy without Collins on
the field. From Weeks 1-5, with Collins on the field, Houston
ranked 5th in pass rate over expectation and 8th in early-down
pass rate. Without Collins on the field, they’ve ranked
21st and 29th in these metrics, respectively. Until Collins is
back on the field and Houston takes on a pass-heavy approach,
Stroud is a questionable starter in fantasy.
A week after returning and being credited with 3 fumbles against
the Cardinals, Tua Tagovailoa looked more like himself against
the Bills, having a nearly perfect statistical performance in
the process, despite a loss. After the terrible events of earlier
this season against Buffalo, it was good to see Tagovailoa walk
away healthy, and have a healthy performance (89% completion rate,
230 yards passing, 2 touchdowns and just 1 sack) as well.
Tagovailoa draws a Rams defense that has given up the 10th most
points to opposing QBs. This game could be a back-and-forth battle,
which would be on par for the hosting Rams, and that should favor
Tua’s volume on top of a promising matchup in terms of efficiency.
There’s a lot to like here. It would be a bit surprising
if Tagovailoa and his top two targets don’t enjoy a breakout
day.
Speaking of those two top targets, nerves are surely on high
about whether Tyreek Hill is feeling 30 years old, and whether
Jaylen Waddle is going through a lost season. In Week 1, both
Hill and Waddle went for over 100 yards and the Dolphins passing
game looked like the well-oiled machine everyone expected. In
Week 2, it seems the Bills exposed something in the Dolphins –
even before Tua Tagovailoa got concussed – and Miami, right
down to their top two wide receivers, haven’t been the same
since.
But there were hopeful signs with this elite receiver pairing
against the Bills, with Hill posting 20 yards per reception on
4 catches, and Waddle getting his first touchdown of the season.
That game may have brought the Fins full circle, despite the loss,
and can be viewed as a stepping stone to Hill and Waddle returning
to form, likely beginning this week against the Rams.
With Raheem Mostert splitting carries with De’Von Achane
- who is also dominating receiving duties - Mostert lives in a
place where his fantasy production is often touchdown dependent.
In 2023, this was no big deal as Mostert scored time and again
on his way to leading the league in rushing touchdowns. But that
was never going to be repeated in 2024. The question was, how
far would the fall be in terms of touchdown regression? The fall
has been steep, with 2 touchdowns in five active games. That could
improve as the Dolphins presumably find themselves. Still, Mostert
is a flex whose success will be hit or miss from week-to-week,
including here in Week 10.
Fade: N/A
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
The Dolphins have been tough on opposing receivers this season,
having allowed the second fewest points to the position. Yet recently,
they have been touched up a bit, allowing three different receivers
to score at least 11.5 points against them in the last two weeks
(including 20.1 from Marvin Harrison Jr.). Couple this with the
fact that teams have had little success preventing Stafford from
finding a healthy Cooper Kupp, or Puca Nacua, over the years,
and both receivers remain must starts.
Since his go-to receivers returned two weeks ago, Stafford has
not been sacked in 78 pass attempts, and has thrown for 577 yards
with 6 touchdowns. He has moved into no worse than the fringes
of the QB1 conversation. He’ll likely play on this edge
between QB1 and QB2 for the rest of the season, Kupp and Nacua’s
health permitting.
The Dolphins have made life miserable for QB’s this year,
allowing under 13 points per game to the position, yet due to
recent injuries at cornerback and safety, cracks have begun to
show. In the last two weeks, Kyler Murray and Josh Allen have
both put up just over 22 points against them. Murray’s placement
among fantasy quarterbacks is more similar to Stafford’s
than Allen’s, which still leaves ample encouragement for
Stafford’s day. Think of Stafford as a high end QB2 against
the Dolphins.
After back-to-back two touchdown games, and 94 receiving yards
last week, is it possible that Demarcus Robinson is emerging in
this offense? Unfortunately, not likely. Teams have certainly
been shifting resources towards Cooper Kupp and Puca Nacua (when
the latter isn’t getting himself ejected, of course). Robinson’s
deserves credit for taking full advantage of the moment, but his
last two weeks are great news for Kupp and Nacua, as teams will
have to give Robinson his due respect and double team them less.
Expect the Dolphins to do that, and Robinson to have a fairly
quiet day, to the benefit of his already highly productive teammates.
