With teammates Nico Collins and now Stefon Diggs out, the Texans
have gone from perhaps one of the deepest wide receiver rooms
in the league into a very thin one. It’s tough to guarantee anything,
but Tank Dell figures to see an even bigger role for the foreseeable
future, starting this week in a tough matchup against the Jets.
Dell has consistently been playing around 70 percent of the team’s
offensive snaps, but that number figures to increase at least
in this contest and that should help with boosting the diminished
target numbers he’s seen in 2024. Dell has seen exactly four targets
in three of his past four games, with the lone outlier in that
stretch being the Week 6 matchup against the Patriots when he
caught seven of the nine passes that came his way for 57 yards
and a touchdown. We may see a more run-heavy approach from the
Texans which could affect the team’s overall passing production,
but Dell figures to be the biggest beneficiary from the injuries
to Collins and Diggs, so he should be in most lineups as a WR2
this week.
With the Texans scrambling to find production from their pass
catchers, there’s also a decent chance that tight end Dalton
Schultz sees an increase in work here in Week 9. Schultz had a
season-high 52 yards this past week and he hasn’t yet scored
a touchdown this season, so this isn’t anything to be too
excited about, but managers who are dealing with bye weeks from
players like George Kittle and Pat Freiermuth could look to Schultz
and his projected increased target share as a one-week replacement
tight end.
The 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year has been a bit disappointing
as a fantasy asset here in 2024, as he has only thrown multiple
touchdowns in two of his eight games thus far. He’s still
done a great job limiting his interceptions and he’s thrown
for over 250 yards in half of his contests, so he hasn’t
been too terrible most weeks, but the ceiling just hasn’t
been there like it was in his rookie season. Add in the fact that
Stroud will now be without his top two pass-catching weapons in
Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, while matching up against an excellent
Jets defense that has given up the third-fewest fantasy points
per game to quarterbacks so far this season, and this looks like
an easy game to bench the young star QB.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Breece Hall is typically a “no-brainer” in this article, but
we have to be honest with ourselves and admit that while his usage
numbers have been encouraging, he has now failed to reach even
10 PPR fantasy points in three of his past five games, including
this past week’s game against the Patriots that should have been
a smash opportunity. Hall carried the ball 16 times for 80 yards,
which was fine, but he made just one catch for nine yards - his
worst receiving game of the season. This could normally be written
off as just an off game from an efficiency standpoint, but the
addition of wide receiver Davante Adams to the offense has to
raise concerns that Hall’s high-end passing game usage might be
a bit dwindled now that the team has now added the former all-pro
receiver to their already strong pass-catching group.
Hall still figures to see a heavy workload as he has continued
to play roughly 70 to 80 percent of the Jets’ offensive
snaps, so as long as the Jets remain close on the scoreboard then
Hall should get around his usual 15-or-so carries to go alone
with a handful of targets in the passing game. That should be
enough to make him an RB1 even in a tough matchup against a Texans
defense that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game
to opposing running backs this season.
The Jets have now played two games with Davante Adams on the
field and while things seem to be a bit better than they were
before, we now have enough evidence to tell us that the addition
of the wide receiver hasn’t produced significant improvements
on the fantasy scoreboards.
Garrett Wilson seems to still be his team’s top pass-catching
weapon, as he’s gone for 174 yards over the past two weeks,
but he has seen a noted decline in total targets over this short
stretch. Wilson saw a ridiculous 23 targets in Week 5 and then
10 in Week 6, but he’s seen that number go down to nine
in Week 7 and eight in Week 8. This has still translated to a
target share in the mid-20-percent range so this isn’t anything
to be too worried about and Wilson’s efficiency has still
been excellent, but we may be looking at a slightly lower ceiling
potential from him right now. That doesn’t mean that managers
should be looking to bench him, of course, so don’t take
this “on-the-fence” rating as anything other than
an indication that Wilson’s value might be slightly reduced
in this contest, especially against a Texans team that may look
to control the clock with their running game.
Davante Adams hasn’t been the fantasy star that most expected
him to be here in 2024, and the move to New York has yet to bear
fruit in the form of fantasy points. Adams has been held to just
nine catches for 84 yards in his first two games with the Jets,
despite seeing 15 targets over this stretch. This would normally
mean that Adams would land on the “fade” list, but
we should probably be a bit more understanding as he is still
recovering from the hamstring injury that kept him out for multiple
weeks, while learning the offense, and he’s faced some tough
competition in his first two games with the Jets. This week, the
matchups could favor Adams as Texans standout cornerback Derek
Stingley figures to be primarily lined up against Garrett Wilson.
This alone could allow Adams to see the biggest target share percentage
that he’s seen thus far in New York, and thus get him back
into the WR2 conversation.
Things have improved significantly at tight end throughout the
league when the position produced uncharacteristically huge numbers
in Week 8. One of the players who helped boost those stats was
Jets tight end Tyler Conklin who scored his second touchdown in
as many weeks, frustrating fantasy managers who did not see those
scores going to the Jets’ stars in Hall, Wilson, or Adams.
Conklin has now scored in both games the Jets have rostered Adams
in and while that might be a fluky low sample-size trap, it’s
also worth considering that opposing defenses are probably not
so concerned about him near the goal line now that the Jets have
multiple high-quality pass-catching weapons outside. Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers has a long history of making mediocre tight ends
into fantasy TE1s primarily due to touchdown efficiency, so don’t
be surprised if Conklin is a frequent visitor of the end zone
throughout the remainder of the season.
Many managers will be confidently starting Conklin after back-to-back
games with a touchdown, but it’s worth considering that
he will be facing a Texans defense that has been the league’s
best unit at defending against opposing tight ends so far this
season. They’ve allowed just 168 yards to the position in
eight games and no tight end has reached even 50 yards against
them. This is truly a touchdown-or-bust situation and it’s
tough to bet on a player like Conklin who has seen just 11 total
targets over his past three games.
While Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams have gotten most of the
headlines, Nix quietly went about putting together a very solid
October: in four games, he averaged 218 yards passing, 37 yards
rushing, and 2.25 combined TDs. Denver went 3-1. Of course, those
three wins came against the Raiders, Saints, and Panthers -- three
clubs that have a combined record of 5-19. Still, Baltimore ranks
last in the NFL in pass defense, and their high-scoring offense
should make the Broncos more aggressive, which could mean big
numbers for Nix as he’ll need to make plays to stay competitive.
Nix has viable top-10 appeal in this matchup.
As mentioned, the Ravens are 32nd in the NFL in pass defense,
giving up a whopping 291.4 yards per game (that’s 20-plus
yards more than anyone else). That’s a lot of yards, and
Denver’s top receiving threat is Sutton, who is coming off
his first 100-yard effort in over two years and has more than
double the receiving yardage of anyone else on the roster. So,
why does he carry an “on the fence” designation? Consistency.
Or, more correctly, the lack thereof. While Sutton had 100 yards
versus Carolina last Sunday, he went without a catch (or even
a target) in Denver’s previous game. For the year, he’s
averaging a modest 47 yards per game with just two TDs. As your
WR3, Sutton is absolutely worth the risk.
On the opposite end of the spectrum is Baltimore’s run
defense, which ranks first in the NFL at 69.9 yards per game and
3.3 yards per carry. That’s bad news for Williams, who had
run better of late after a rough start that saw him gain just
52 yards on 24 carries over his first three games combined. He
didn’t get much going against the Panthers last Sunday --
17 carries for 44 yards -- which was a disappointing follow up
to his 14-88-2 performance the previous week versus New Orleans.
Williams hasn’t been more than an RB3 to this point on the
season, and this week he’s better off being left on your
bench, assuming you have a playable alternative.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Left for dead by some fantasy owners after back-to-back games
without a catch at the end of September, Andrews fared much better
once the calendar turned to October. In four games, the veteran
tight end caught 16 passes for 198 yards and 4 TDs -- he has scored
in three consecutive games. Despite that, Andrews hasn’t been
the primary target he’s been in years past, and the acquisition
of Diontae Johnson could further shift the passing game towards
a focus on wide receivers. Beyond the possibility of fewer opportunities,
there’s also the matter of Denver’s defense, which ranks fourth
in the league against the pass at 176.3 yards per game. Again,
there were some bad offenses that contributed to that lofty ranking,
but Andrews is a shaky TE1 this Sunday.
Acquired this week from the Panthers, Johnson (ribs) was inactive
last weekend due to a rib injury, though some speculated he was
healthy enough to play but ultimately was held out ahead of a
possible trade. Even if he’s ready to roll in Week 9, fantasy
owners would do well to keep him on their bench. It’s rare for
wideouts to step in and immediately contribute, which is something
we’ve seen recently with Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins, both
of whom are more accomplished than Johnson. We also don’t how
where Johnson will fall in the pecking order. We know Flowers
is WR1, but will Johnson supplant Rashod Bateman as WR2? Will
he share time with Nelson Agholor in the early stages? There are
simply too many unknowns here to play Johnson.
Back in the lineup last Sunday after a two-game absence due to
an ankle injury, Meyers worked as the No.1 receiver against the
Chiefs thanks to the team’s recent trade of Davante Adams
to the Jets. Meyers led the team in targets (7) and receptions
(6), and he finished with 52 yards and a touchdown. While he’s
limited athletically, Meyers has a knack for making himself available,
and he’s filled the de facto WR1 role before during his
time with the Patriots. The Bengals rank in the bottom half of
the league against the pass, allowing 219.4 yards per game (21st).
Meyers and Bowers are the only two members of Las Vegas’
passing attack that are worth playing, and the former can be deployed
as your No. 3 receiver in Week 9.
Mattison, signed during the offseason from Minnesota, has replaced
Zamir White as the lead back for the Raiders. The results have
been largely mediocre. Over the last four games, he’s averaging
16.5 carries for 44.5 yards, and 3.8 catches for 28.8 yards. He
has scored once during that time. While just shy of 75 yards per
game is far from elite production, Cincinnati has had trouble
with the run this season (139.3 yards per game; 24th), and they
allowed three rushing TDs in last Sunday’s loss to Philly. The
mere fact that Mattison should get around 20 touches here is enough
to slot him as an RB3 or flex, but he has some juice given this
plus matchup.
Fade: N/A
LV FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
LV FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
LV FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
LV FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Brown continues to create distance between himself and Zack Moss
in terms of usage, though both backs could offer some value this
Sunday versus Las Vegas. The Raiders rank 19th in rushing yards
per game allowed (129.9) and 19th in yards per carry (4.6), and
only three teams have given up more rushing TDs (10). Brown was
held in check by the Eagles in Week 9, turning 12 carries into
just 27 yards, but he did find the end zone for the fourth time
in his last five games. Brown could be even more involved if Higgins
(quad) can’t return from a quad injury that landed him on the
inactive list this past Sunday. As an RB3 with a little upside,
Brown holds some appeal.
Let’s start with this: if Higgins returns from injury, disregard
everything beyond this point as he and Chase dominate the ball
when both are healthy. If, however, Higgins misses another week,
Gesicki has a chance to contribute. The former Dolphin has had
two standout games in 2024: in Week 2, he logged a 7-91-0 line
versus KC, and last Sunday he put together a 7-73-0 effort. The
common thread, no Higgins. While the Raiders are generally a solid
pass defense, they allowed a combined 13 receptions, 113 yards,
and a touchdown to Travis Kelce and Noah Gray last weekend. Granted,
Gesicki is no Kelce, but if he operates as Burrow’s second or
third option this week, he has a shot to return low-end TE1 value.
Typically, Rhamondre Stevenson is a locked-in RB2 option on most
fantasy rosters. He likely remains that option for most managers
this week, but this is a matchup where Stevenson could have some
issues. The Titans rank middle of the pack in terms of fantasy
points allowed to running backs. However, some of their team-level
rushing metrics make them out to be a rather stout rushing defense.
Tennessee ranks top 10 in yards allowed per rush, EPA per rush,
and run stuff rate. 27 percent of rushes against the Titans result
in no gain or a loss, the highest rate in the league. Given the
state of New England’s offensive line, Stevenson is in line
for some tough sledding on Sunday.
Hunter Henry has, at times, been a viable tight end streaming
option. He’s cleared a 20-percent target share in three games
this season and scored more than 9 PPR points in all three of
those contests. He’s proven to be able to contend for targets
with Demario Douglas, Kayshone Boutte, and company. If you are
in need of a tight end this week and just need 8-11 PPR points
to get by in your matchup, there are worse choices than Henry.
Drake Maye has been a very strong fantasy asset in his three
starts as an NFL quarterback. He’s cleared 20 points twice and
scored 11.5 points in his third game despite leaving in the second
quarter and throwing just six passes. Maye left the game last
week with a concussion and it seems like it could keep him sidelined
in Week 9. If he is able to suit up, he’s a reasonable QB1 option
thanks to his rushing ability and willingness to push the ball
downfield and generate explosive plays.
The emergence of Drake Maye brought along Douglas into the Flex
discussion. In the lone game where both Maye and Douglas played
in full, Douglas scored 21.2 PPR points. Unfortunately, Douglas’s
usage has been rather inconsistent. He’s had a sub-10-percent
target share in as many games as he’s hit 20 percent. Until
his role stabilizes, he’s a player who you can’t trust
in lineups.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Tony Pollard has been a consistent RB2 option this season and
remains among the RB2 ranks in Week 9. Tyjae Spears may be back
this week, but Pollard has been efficient enough with Spears sharing
the field to be a starter in fantasy lineups.
Pollard has seen a fairly sizable workload this season, largely
thanks to Spears’ injury that has vaulted him to a 75-80
percent snap share in recent weeks. He ranks 10th in weighted
opportunities per game and comes on at 9th in expected fantasy
points per game as a result. Expect these numbers to come down
when Spears is back in action, but Pollard was still able to deliver
three RB2 performances in the four games where this backfield
was a 60-40 split. The New England defense allows the 4th-most
points to opposing running backs, so Pollard is in a good spot
to succeed even if Spears is stealing snaps.
Calvin Ridley was dominant in his first game without DeAndre
Hopkins by his side, posting season highs in targets (15), receptions
(10), and yards (143). Results aside, the most encouraging thing
to see was the change in the type of targets Ridley was seeing.
His aDOT fell to 11.3 yards after hovering around 20 yards for
most of the season. It’s no longer just deep balls with
the hope that Ridley comes down with it, he’s getting looks
at various depths.
The negatives in Ridley’s weekly outlook have remained constant
throughout the season. The Titans have one of the worst offensive
environments and quarterback situations in the NFL. The question
still stands, how much are targets from Will Levis or Mason Rudolph
actually worth? Ideally, your fantasy roster will have the depth
at receiver to keep Ridley on the bench and evaluate his new role
for another week. Given the byes and injuries to receivers, this
may not be possible and Ridley is a fine choice for teams with
limited options.
Last week was fantasy manager’s first time seeing Chris Olave
on the field without Rashid Shaheed by his side. As you might
expect, he was dominant and easily earned targets over New Orleans’
other receivers. Olave commanded a 31-percent target share and
a 58-percent target share last week. Both of these are the marks
of a high-end fantasy WR1. Now it’s not going to be this impressive
every week, but it goes to show that this will be the Chris Olave
show through the air for the rest of the season. Without another
legitimate target earner by his side, Olave enters weekly WR2
status. When Derek Carr returns (likely this week), his outlook
is further lifted.
Neither Derek Carr nor Taysom Hill are weekly fantasy starters,
but they can be considered this week against the Panthers. To
put it quite simply, this Panthers defense is one of the worst
defensive units in recent history. They rank 31st or worse in
touchdowns per game, rushing yards per game, yards per pass play,
and quarterback pressure rate. They can be picked apart in a variety
of ways and opposing offenses are doing just that.
Carr provides some intrigue simply because of how inefficient
Carolina has been against the pass. Allowing 7.5 yards per pass
play and over two passing touchdowns per game is absurd. Unsurprisingly,
these marks both rank dead last among NFL defenses. Even in his
first game back, this is a matchup where Carr can be a viable
streaming option.
Hill, on the other hand, makes for a strong bye-week fill-in
or streaming option for fantasy managers who are looking to play
the touchdown lottery at tight end. Hill’s role in the red
zone and at the goal line are well documented. Against a defense
that is allowing 3.9 touchdowns per game, his chances to punch
one in are as strong as they get. If you’re looking for
a ceiling-driven option at tight end, go with Hill.
Fade: N/A
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
The early days of the Andy Dalton era were kind to the Panthers’
skill players in fantasy - Chuba Hubbard and Diontae Johnson were
thriving. But as expected, the offense regressed and fantasy production,
particularly for Hubbard, began to trickle down. Now with Bryce
Young back under center, all hope may be lost.
In three games with Young this season, Hubbard is averaging 7.4
PPR points per game. Hubbard’s lightest workloads of the season
have also come in games with Young at quarterback. Why? Because
Young is unable to sustain drives and generate consistent scoring
opportunities. At a position like running back where fantasy value
is so heavily tied to offensive success, it’s hard to rely on
an offense with Bryce Young leading the way.
A similar line of thinking comes into play with Xavier Legette.
Sure, he’s the de facto WR1 in Carolina, but is this an
offense that can support any sort of fantasy success? Young has
yet to throw for 220 yards in a game this season and led an offense
that was held to 193 yards of total offense against this very
same New Orleans defense in Week 1. The most likely outcome seems
to be another day full of struggles on the offensive side of the
ball and a lack of fantasy success for everyone involved.
Jake Ferguson hasn’t had a TE1 performance in his last
two games and fantasy managers may be getting a bit nervous. There’s
no need to worry, Ferguson is still quite clearly the No.2 option
in Dallas and is firmly among the TE1 ranks.
Ferguson has been targeted on 23 percent of his routes this season,
the second-highest rate of any qualified pass catcher in Dallas.
His usage has led to him coming in as the TE5 in expected fantasy
points per game. Few tight ends are firmly the No.1 or No.2 receiving
option on their team, but Ferguson is one of them. Start him with
confidence for the foreseeable future.
Some people were holding out hope for Dak Prescott in anticipation
that he would have a second-half turnaround like we saw in 2023.
So far, this has not held true. Prescott was the QB18 last week
and has just two QB1 finishes on the year.
At this point in time, the Cowboys offense seems capable of sustaining
elite production from CeeDee Lamb but is not exactly well-rounded
enough for Prescott to put up gaudy passing numbers. This is a
unit that ranks middle of the pack in total offense and bottom
10 in scoring offense. Keeping the light on for Prescott to get
it together is fair, but it’s hard to trust him in fantasy
lineups until the turnaround has already happened.
Fade: Cowboys RBs
It doesn’t matter who the Cowboys send out there at running
back, this rushing attack has been completely inept. The Cowboys
are the only team without a single explosive rush (15-plus yards)
this season. Their longest carry on the year has gone for just
13 yards.
Unsurprisingly, as a team, the Cowboys rank dead last in yards
per carry and have the fewest carries of 10-plus yards of any
team. Both the running back talent and offensive line play a role
in this - Dallas ranks 27th in yards before contact per attempt.
Unless there’s a dramatic shift in their success running
the ball, none of these running backs belong in lineups.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
It has been a season of epic highs and lows for Darnell Mooney.
He’s finished as a WR2 or better in three games this season;
he’s also finished as a WR5 or worse in three contests.
What’s the common theme between Mooney’s successful
games? You guessed it, touchdowns. He’s scored in all three
of his quality games this season.
Mooney is a boom-bust flex option whose value is driven by his
ability to find the end zone. This game has a 51.5-point total,
meaning this could be a matchup where the Falcons’ offense
is humming and Mooney gets involved in the red zone. Still, Mooney
is nothing more than a high-upside flex option for teams that
are hurting at receiver.
Kirk Cousins inexplicably has the Buccaneers’ number. In
the two games that Atlanta has played against Tampa Bay, Cousins
has combined for 785 passing yards, eight touchdowns, and 64.0
fantasy points. In his six other games this season, Cousins has
not thrown for 250 passing yards, has multiple passing TDs just
once, and has one QB1 finish.
Call him Tampa Kirk, because these two games are the only times
where Cousins has been a viable fantasy option. For the most part,
he’s been just a bench asset. Even in a game with a lofty
total, you’re better off chasing the upside of a rushing
quarterback like Bo Nix.
Things were looking ugly for fantasy managers who were rostering
pretty much any Miami Dolphins player, but Tua’s return
has breathed new life into the offense, not only in the passing
game but also for the running backs. Second-year back De’Von
Achane finally got back to his early-season production this past
week when he blew up for 97 yards on the ground while adding six
receptions for 50 yards and a touchdown in the receiving game.
It was Achane’s third 20-plus point game of the season and
the first time he’s been above 6.0 yards per carry here
in 2024.
Achane now faces a Buffalo defense that he torched back in Week
2 when he went for 172 total yards and a touchdown. The Bills
have also struggled against other backs, including James Conner,
Derrick Henry, and Breece Hall - all of whom got into the end
zone at least once against this defense. This is an opportunity
for Achane to have a week-winning fantasy performance and he should
be looked at as a mid-range RB1 who has the potential to be the
RB1 overall.
There appears to be some light at the end of the tunnel for wide
receiver Tyreek Hill as the consensus first-round fantasy pick
got a major boost this past week due to the return of quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa. Hill had only produced one double-digit PPR fantasy
game over his past four games without Tua, but immediately saw
nine targets, converting six of them for 72 yards in Tua’s first
game back.
Hill now faces a Buffalo defense that terrorized Tua and the
entire Miami passing game back in Week 2 before injuring him,
so this is not exactly a great matchup, but it’s still better
than what we were dealing with when the Dolphins were without
Tua. Consider Hill a fringe WR1 this week, but he should be back
into solid WR1 territory by next.
The entire Miami offense was practically unusable for fantasy
purposes when Tua was out, but at least we saw Tyreek Hill, De’Von
Achane and Raheem Mostert produce usable fantasy numbers in Tua’s
first game back. That unfortunately was not the case, though,
for Jaylen Waddle who continued to struggle. Waddle saw six targets,
catching four of them for just 45 yards, against a Cardinals defense
that has been a top-10 matchup for opposing wide receivers this
season. This now means that Waddle has failed to exceed reach
five receptions or 50 yards receiving in a game since all the
way back in Week 1, and he still has not scored a touchdown this
season.
We have to think that there are better days ahead for Waddle
as it’s hard to imagine things getting much worse, but this
is a player who’s more of a fringe WR3 at this point than
the WR2 he was drafted to be in most leagues.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
James Cook’s 2024 season has been tough to predict at times,
but he really produced this past week in what was expected to
be a good matchup for him when he rushed for 111 yards on 17 carries,
added three receptions for 22 yards, and scored a pair of touchdowns
in Buffalo’s blowout victory on the road over the Seahawks.
After scoring just six times in all of 2023, Cook has now scored
eight touchdowns in just his first seven games (he missed Week
6) to start 2024. Not only that but he’s touched the ball
at least 10 times in every start he’s had, making him one
of the best fantasy producers so far this season.
Cook put up one of his biggest games of the season thus far back
in Week 2 when he faced the Dolphins as he scored three total
touchdowns while compiling 95 total yards in a dominant Bills
victory on the road in Miami. Now he and the Bills host the Dolphins
in a game where Buffalo is being favored to win by nearly a full
touchdown. This is a great opportunity for Cook to add to his
already gaudy touchdown numbers and he needs to be in all lineups.
Dalton Kincaid has been one of the biggest disappointments at
the tight end position this season, but he is still - barely -
holding on to fringe TE1 status. He finally scored his first touchdown
since Week 3 this past week against the Seahawks and he’s now
seen between six to seven targets in five straight games, making
him one of the more reliable producers at the position even if
he’s lacked the spike games. Additionally, Amari Cooper is banged
up coming into this week and could end up missing the game which
would further consolidate the targets and help Kincaid a bit.
Amari Cooper injured his wrist in Buffalo’s Week 8 victory over
the Seahawks and he’s been limited in practice throughout the
week, putting his status in question as we head into the weekend.
Even if he does play, it’s worth considering that while he scored
in his first game with the Bills, Cooper has only seen seven total
targets in his first two games with his new team. Not only that,
but he’s been out-snapped by Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and
even Mack Hollins in both contests. If he were healthier then
it’d be much easier to project an increase in playing time and
target share for Cooper, but the fact that he hasn’t been able
to practice in full makes him extra risky in this matchup against
a Miami defense that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points
per game to opposing wide receivers this season. There will be
better opportunities for Cooper this season, but this is a good
week to bench him.
In terms of talent, LA’s receiver room is in the conversation
for worst in the NFL, especially with last year’s first-round
pick Quentin Johnston (ankle) having missed back-to-back games
with an ankle injury following an encouraging start. Perhaps his
absence has helped accelerate the rise of McConkey, who the Chargers
drafted with the 34th overall pick back in April. The rookie enjoyed
easily his best game last Sunday, catching all six of his targeted
passes for 111 yards and a pair of touchdowns. With LA featuring
the passing game more often in recent weeks, McConkey could be
growing into a possible WR3 for fantasy owners. He certainly appears
to be making a case for being Justin Herbert’s favorite target
as well, which is always a plus for a receiver.
During his first five games, Herbert threw for less than 180
yards four times. In his last two, the Oregon product is averaging
314 yards. He also ran for a season-high 49 yards in Week 9 and
tossed multiple touchdown passes for just the second time all
year. The offense seems to be finding more balance, though whether
that’s by choice or more a byproduct of reduced effectiveness
in the running game is debatable. On the year, Cleveland has been
better against the pass than the run, but they have an NFL-low
one interception on the year, so they don’t instill any
fear into opposing passing games. Herbert is a stretch for top-10
value, but he has fringe QB1 potential.
Fade: N/A
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
The Chargers have a tough defense. They’re ninth against the pass,
and 11th versus the run, and they’ve given up a league-low 13
points per game. Their offense is a middling group, however, setting
up the distinct possibility that both teams with play an old-fashioned
field position type of game. In such a scenario, the Browns would
likely ask less of Jameis Winston, who has a history of turnover
issues, and more of Chubb and the running game. After running
11 times for just 22 yards in his season debut, the veteran gained
52 yards on 16 carries in Week 8. Chubb was a top back before
his gruesome leg injury, and he looks like he might be playing
himself back into form. Plugging him into your lineup as an RB3
or flex could pay off.
Making his first start since 2022, Winston looked great, throwing
for 334 yards and 3 TDs without an interception in an upset win
over the Ravens. Look for him to slide back some in Week 9. LA
is considerably better against the pass than Baltimore, which
ranks dead last in pass defense, and the Chargers will have the
advantage of film to study following his Browns debut. There’s
a reason Winston hasn’t been a full-time starter since 2019. He’s
inconsistent, and he turns the ball over too much. Against a disciplined
defense like the Chargers, it’s best to stay away from him.
Brian Robinson continues to dominate the backfield touches in
Washington, but it is a bit concerning that Austin Ekeler has
now out-snapped him in each of the past two games since Robinson
came back from injury. Nevertheless, Robinson has now carried
the ball at least 12 times in every full game he’s played while
scoring an impressive six touchdowns in his seven appearances.
Robinson would be considered a weekly RB1 if he was more involved
in the passing game, but he’s definitely a strong bet to have
a good game this week given that he already beat this same Giants
defense up for a season-high 133 yards on the ground back in Week
2.
The tight end position is definitely moving in a positive direction
throughout the league over the past few weeks and one of the players
who’s helping that happen is veteran Zach Ertz. Ertz had
only scored double-digit PPR points in one of his first five games
this season, but he’s now done so in three straight contests,
including this past week when he saw a season-high 11 targets
along which resulted in season-highs in receptions (seven) and
yards (77).
Realistically, Ertz is probably more of a high-end TE2 most weeks
given that he’s at best the team’s third option near
the goal line (and probably fourth if you count Jayden Daniels
himself), but he has been on a nice stretch as of late so he’s
a fine low-end TE1 this week.
The backfield snap split has favored Ekeler over teammate Brian
Robinson in each of the two games since Robinson returned, but
the fantasy numbers are still strongly in favor of the younger
back. Ekeler had finished with low-double-digit PPR fantasy points
in each of the first five games for the Commanders this season,
but he’s now managed to score just 11.8 PPR points over
the past two weeks combined. With Jayden Daniels being a mobile
quarterback who doesn’t target his running backs much and
Robinson soaking up most of the carries, there just isn’t
much room for Ekeler to produce for fantasy purposes. He can be
confidently benched in this one.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Malik Nabers is more of a “no-brainer” than just
a “favorite,” but some fantasy managers are probably
a bit concerned about the young stud WR after two “down”
games since he returned from injury. Nabers had three 20-plus-point
games over the three games prior to getting injured, but he’s
since been held to just 11 receptions for 122 yards and no touchdowns
over his past two games since returning. These numbers aren’t
horrible, but they’re just not what we’ve been used
to from a player who started off his career as one of the top
receivers in fantasy.
While it’s been a bit disappointing as of late, it’s
worth considering that Nabers’ usage has still been excellent
over these two “down” weeks. He was targeted eight
times in his first game back, then saw an impressive 13 targets
this past week - his fourth game with 12 or more targets in just
his first six professional contests.
The Commanders have been much better defensively this season
than they were in 2023, but they’re checking in as the 12th-best
matchup for opposing receivers so far this season. One of the
biggest reasons for that ranking is that Nabers himself pummeled
them for 10 receptions, 127 yards, and a touchdown on a ridiculous
18 targets in Week 2. We shouldn’t expect that type of usage
again, but there’s little reason to believe that the Giants
won’t be leaning on their superstar wide receiver in this
one. Start Nabers with confidence.
The Giants’ backfield has been an interesting one to follow this
season as Devin Singletary was certainly the lead back to start,
but he missed Weeks 5 and 6 which led to rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr.
showing out in his opportunity to lead the backfield. Singletary
returned in Week 7 and many believed he’d go back to his role
as the lead back, but it hasn’t turned out that way. Tracy has
played 67 percent and 57 percent of the snaps over the past two
weeks. More importantly, he completely dominated the touch distribution,
particularly in Week 8, when he had 22 touches to Singletary’s
four against the Steelers.
Objectively, Tracy has looked like the better of the two backs
this season and he’s the only one who’s cracked the
100-yard mark in any game, which he’s done twice including
against the Steelers. Normally this would be enough to make him
a must-start for most managers, but he suffered a concussion in
the loss to Pittsburgh and is now questionable to play this weekend.
If he does play, Tracy is probably in line for another strong
usage game, but be careful and make sure to have a backup option
in case he’s inactive.
Wan’Dale Robinson went undrafted in many fantasy drafts
and has been one of the more reliable waiver wire pick-ups to
start the season, but this is probably a game where fantasy managers
will want to avoid him. Robinson has been down over his past two
games, having caught just 11 passes for 53 yards and no touchdowns
on his 14 targets. It’s no surprise that his share of targets
has dropped significantly since Malik Nabers returned to the lineup
and Robinson himself isn’t much of a red zone weapon, nor
are the Giants a good enough offense, for him to make up for a
lower target share with touchdowns.
Robinson actually did score against the Commanders when these
teams played back in Week 2, but he did so on just two catches
for 18 yards on a season-low four targets, so this is a good week
to leave him on your bench.
An early-season injury to Evan Engram was a big blow to the Jacksonville
offense, but the tight end returned in Week 6 and he’s been a
big-time producer since. Engram has made 19 catches for 173 yards
and a touchdown over his three games since getting back onto the
field. The Jaguars also lost Christian Kirk to injury this past
week, who is a player who tends to operate in the same areas of
the field as Engram, so we could see an even stronger share of
targets come Engram’s way going forward.
This is a tough on-paper matchup against a Philadelphia defense
that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing
tight ends so far this season, but Engram has seen over 20 percent
of his team’s targets when he’s been on the field.
This is a game where the Jaguars will almost certainly need to
pass the ball a lot to stay close on the scoreboard, so look for
Engram to push over five targets and potentially approach 10 targets
in this one.
Question marks continue to surround quarterback Trevor Lawrence
from a real-life football standpoint, but it’s hard to deny
that the former No. 1 overall draft pick has been one of the more
reliable non-elite fantasy producers QBs over the past month of
the season. Lawrence has thrown for multiple touchdowns in four
of his past five games and he even got into the end zone as a
runner this past week, all while averaging over 250 passing yards
per game over this stretch. Those numbers aren’t spectacular,
but they’ve been enough to make him a reliable low-end QB1
starter most weeks, and that didn’t look like it was going
to be happening too often when he started the season off in such
a rut.
Unfortunately, while Lawrence has been solid as of late from
a fantasy standpoint, he now faces a Philadelphia defense that
has been quietly great against opposing passing games. The Eagles
have allowed just eight touchdown passes through their first seven
games and they’ve allowed just one quarterback (Baker Mayfield)
to throw for over 260 yards against them.
If Lawrence can produce in this game, then we might have to have
a real conversation about putting him in the weekly QB1 range,
but for now he’s a mid-to-low-end QB2 in this matchup and
probably a player who should be on most fantasy benches against
a difficult Philadelphia defense.
Running back Travis Etienne has been dealing with injuries throughout
the season and has now missed each of the past two games with
a hamstring injury. The former first-round NFL Draft pick has
also been underwhelming when he’s been on the field so it
shouldn’t be surprising that there have been rumors of backup
Tank Bigsby straight up taking over as the lead back in Jacksonville
going forward.
Etienne is expected back on the field this week and while it
would be easy to just project him to play a completely complementary,
passing-down role to Bigsby, we just don’t know how things
are going to shake out. This ambiguity, in addition to the Jaguars
just being a bad offense overall, makes things particularly risky
for fantasy purposes here in Week 9. Add in the fact that the
Eagles are currently a top-five defense at defending opposing
running backs this season and it’s easy to see why many
fantasy experts are low on both Etienne and Bigsby in this matchup.
Hopefully, this week’s game will give us a better idea
of what the backfield split distribution is going to be as we
move on this season, but fantasy managers should try to avoid
both of these backs in this tough matchup.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Managers who’ve rostered DeVonta Smith have become accustomed
to him taking a back seat to A.J. Brown over the past three seasons,
but that doesn’t mean that he can’t also be a pretty
darn reliable fantasy producer. Smith missed a game due to an
injury and he had an absolutely brutal fantasy performance against
the Giants in Week 7, but he’s otherwise averaged over 15
PPR fantasy points per game.
The Eagles have scored 65 points over their past two games and
the Jaguars defense has been absolutely horrible against opposing
passing games, so this has big game potential for both Smith as
well as A.J. Brown, especially if tight end Dallas Goedert misses
the game with the hamstring injury he’s dealing with.
Tight end Dallas Goedert has missed each of the Eagles’
past two games after injuring his hamstring in Week 6 and he’s
still not practicing this week as of Thursday. There is still
a chance that he’s able to get on the practice field and
even potentially be active this weekend, but fantasy managers
need to be extremely cautious. The Eagles and Jaguars play in
a late-afternoon game, so options will be limited if you risk
keeping him in your lineup and he ends up being ruled inactive
after the early-afternoon games kick off.
Despite the incredible talent that the Bears have at wide receiver,
the limitations of rookie QB Caleb Williams has led to D.J. Moore
only breaking the Top 50 in points per game at his position. Moore
is currently No.35, essentially having rotational Flex production.
But, the Cardinals struggles on defense include giving up the
8th most points to wideouts, which should be enough to push the
veteran receiver more firmly into Flex position this week.
Meanwhile, after a miserable start, D’Andre Swift has come
alive over the last four weeks, scoring on the ground in each
of the last four games and producing over 100 yards from scrimmage
in each of those contests. He has a great chance to do it all
again versus a Cardinals team that has given up the 4th most points
per game to opposing running backs.
Which Caleb Williams will we see this week? He’s had three
fantasy performances of at least 23 points and three of 11 or
less. Facing a beatable Cardinals defense suggests we’ll
more likely see the Top 12 version of Caleb, but it’s nowhere
near a lock. Against Arizona, he’s certainly worth taking
the leap if you are in need at the position.
Despite leaving one game early, Keenan Allen has seen a respectable
6.4 targets per game in 2024. Though a far cry from the targets
he saw with the Chargers, he’s been hampered by the struggles
of his rookie QB and the limited volume of the passing in this
offense. Allen draws a favorable match up against Arizona. The
matchup offers an opportunity for him to visit his ceiling, which
for a player with 61 career touchdowns is still considerable enough
to warrant flex discussion.
Tight end Cole Kmet has had a couple of splash game this season,
but in a Bears offense that struggles with consistency, he’s
also had a pair of 1 reception performances. He’s got substantial
ceiling, especially with 16 touchdowns in his last 41 games, but
also one of the lowest floors for a tight end in the league. The
Cardinals have been middling against the postion, leaving him
as a bit of boom/bust high end TE2.
Odunze has now had at least 40 yards in each of the last three
games. The issue is that he hasn’t peaked beyond 41 yards
during that time, and that was his second highest yardage total
of the season. Odunze’s future remains bright, but he’s
hindered by being down the pecking order for targets until the
Bears see more stability at quarterback. He’s always capable
of a big game due to talent, but there’s just so much risk
at the moment.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
James Conner has put up RB2 production this season, currently
No.22 in FPts/G at the position. The Bears “weakness”
on defense is against the run, though they are truthfully no worse
than middling in that regard. It would not be surprising to see
the Cardinals try to lean on Conner in an attempt to control the
tempo of what looks to be a close game. He’s averaging 18
touches per game and makes a respectable RB2 once more.
Harrison is coming off an impressive 6 catch, 111-yard performance,
also reaching the end zone in the process. His rookie season has
been a bit of a roller coaster ride, with a pair of 100+ yard
performances and 5 total touchdowns, but also three games where
he produced less than 25 yards. Some of that is surely due to
the concussion he had in Week 6, but he also had just 1 reception
in Week 1 and 2 in Week 6. It may be a bit of a downslope on the
roller coaster again as draws a difficult Bears secondary. He’s
more of a risky flex than a WR2 against Chicago.
Kyler Murray is just inside the Top 12 in fantasy points per
game this year, but drawing a Bears defense that has been extremely
difficult for opposing QBs (2nd fewest FPts/G allowed), Murray
is more of a QB2 than a QB1 this week. In standard, 12 team leagues,
he’s a reasonable sit unless you are very short at the position.
Michael Wilson, meanwhile, has been a touchdown-dependent producer
in his second season, only raking in more than 38 yards receiving
twice in eight games. It will be tough to find the end zone against
the Bears secondary, meaning Wilson is a good fade.
It was a world of difference for Matthew Stafford (4 TD passes)
last week with the return of his top two receivers. Cooper Kupp’s
5-51-1 line on 8 targets in Week 8 was a very solid showing for
the returning All Pro. Puka Nacua, meanwhile, had an even bigger
day in a hasty return to the lineup, catching 7-of-9 targets for
106 yards.
Stafford spread the ball around, not just to his two favorite
wideouts, but even got some of his role-playing receivers involved
as well. It’s reasonable to expect both Kupp and Nacua to
see an even greater share of the targets as they continue their
way back from injury and to be the overwhelming focal points of
the offense they have previously been. Whether it’s Kupp
or Nacua who sees the greater share remains to be seen but both
are no less than high end WR2’s this week, even against
a good Seattle secondary. In what looks to be a high scoring game
this weekend, Stafford is a borderline QB1.
Nacau injured his knee in practice on Thursday so monitor his
status on Friday and throughout the weekend.
Wide receiver Jordan Whittington (shoulder) was a limited participant
to start the week of practice. He’s trending in the right
direction, but with Kupp and Nacua back, there are too many mouths
to feed and he can’t be viewed as reliable.
Running back Blake Corum saw 4 carries last week, giving Kyren
Williams a breather now and again. That seems poised to continue
barring an injury to Williams, who clearly has the trust of the
coaches despite a modest 3.8 rushing average and only 4.7 yards
per reception. Williams’ pass blocking, ability as a receiver
(1 drop) and finishing around the goal line (8 combined touchdowns)
are keeping Corum at bay. Stash on with Corum, especially if you
have Williams, but that’s all he’s valuable for at
the moment.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Noah Fant hasn’t made much noise in fantasy football since joining
the Seahawks three years ago, and alarmingly has not reached the
end zone since 2022! But Fant has had a pair of six-reception
games this year (vs SF and Miami) and has at least 3 receptions
in each of the last four games and five of the last six. That’s
not super exciting, but with more targets likely available this
week (see DK Metcalf below), and a Rams defense that has given
up the 3rd most points to tight ends, Fant has some high-floor
appeal, making him a respectable streaming option.
Geno Smith continues to lead the NFL in passing yards, but last
week marked his 7th week in which he’s thrown for 1 touchdown
or less. His season high is 2 touchdown passes and without Metcalf
last week, he threw none.
All in all, there are concerns about Geno’s ceiling despite
the Seahawks throwing more than any team in the league. Offensive
coordinator Ryan Grubb seems to prefer to finish with the run
game at the goal line (10 combined rushing touchdowns for Walker
and Charbonnet). This could come around as team’s make adjustments
and the Seahawks respond in kind, but it’s not likely against
a Rams secondary that has gotten healthy and effective, especially
if Metcalf is out once again. Geno’s volume and respectable
mobility provide a better-than-average floor, but the limited
ceiling keeps him from breaking into the QB1 conversation versus
the Rams.
Metcalf has missed the first two practices of the week with a
knee injury, and it’s not looking great for the Seahawks
top receiver to be active. If he does play, there’s also
considerable risk that he is used in a limited manner. Barring
a sudden return to full at Friday’s practice, he’s
just the latest risky WR play even if he does suit up.
Metcalf’s practice status could bode well for the production
of wide receivers Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, though
neither quite fully took advantage of the opportunity in Week
8. Smith-Njigba had a respectable showing, garnering a 6-69-0
line on seven targets, while the veteran Lockett was erased (1-9-0
on 3 targets).
No one else emerged in the offense as the Bills dominated time
of possession, 39 minutes to 21 for Seattle. It may also have
had to do with the fact that Lockett has turned up on the injury
report with an oblique injury, though him being at practice to
start the week is encouraging. Lopsided time of possession is
unlikely to happen in what should be a faster-paced game against
the Rams, so the prospects of an active Lockett playing more to
flex value alongside Smith-Njigba are good. If Lockett is out,
Smith-Njigba can volume his way into the WR2 conversation.
A week ago, the Lions scored 52 points while completing just
15 passes for 94 yards. Only one player had more than two receptions.
That was LaPorta, who led the way with six catches for 48 yards
and a touchdown. The six grabs were a season high and matched
his total from the previous three games combined. So, was it a
sign that he’s finally breaking out? Or an anomaly? In two
meetings with the Packers last year, the then-rookie hauled in
nine passes for 103 yards and a touchdown. The suspension of Jameson
Williams could create more opportunities, but after seven mostly
disappointing weeks the best you can view LaPorta as is a hit-or-miss
low-end TE1.
How can you fade the quarterback of a team that has scored 172
points over the last four games? Well, hear me out. During that
span, Goff has completed 70 passes, which works out to 17.5 per
game. That’s asking a little number of connections to do
a lot for fantasy owners. In fairness, Goff has paid them off
with 972 yards and 10 TDs. He had just three TDs in two matchups
with the Packers last year, however, and given that Green Bay’s
calling card defensively this season has been takeaways, you could
see Detroit lean on their stellar running game on Sunday. While
you’d certainly be forgiven for keeping Goff in your lineup,
there’s some downside here.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
After a fast start, Reed has seen his numbers nosedive over the
past three weeks, settling for a combined 10 receptions and 93
yards with 51 of it coming on a catch late last Sunday to set
up the game-winning field goal. He combined for 105 yards and
a touchdown in two meetings with the Lions last year, which isn’t
great production. Still, the main reason he’s here instead of
Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs, who has been WR1 the past three
games, is he’s the most matchup proof of the wideouts. By which
I mean, whether it’s Love (groin) or Malik Willis, Reed should
be involved. Feel free to plug him in as your WR3 and hope for
a return to his early season form.
Obviously, this has everything to do with Love’s status.
After suffering a groin injury against the Jaguars early on, he
bowed out in the third quarter and was replaced by Willis, who
led the Packers to the win. The team is being coy about Love’s
status, saying he has a realistic chance to play. He returned
to practice on Thursday in a limited capacity, so he remains in
the mix to start. If he does, Willis clearly holds no value. If
he doesn’t, Willis shouldn’t be summarily dismissed
like most NFL backups. In two starts, the former Titan averaged
162 yards passing, 57 yards rushing, and 1.5 TDs. That’s
low-end QB1 type production. Granted, the Lions are better than
Tennessee or Indy, but if you’re up against it, Willis is
a potential lottery ticket.
Let’s get this out of the way. I’m a big fan of Downs. I think
he’s got tremendous upside, and with the right quarterback he
could deliver. Maybe Joe Flacco is the right QB. In Flacco’s three
previous games (two starts, one extended relief appearance), Downs
hauled in 24 passes for 217 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He
had just one catch for three yards in Anthony Richardson’s return,
but then he followed that up with a 4-109-1 line last Sunday.
With the Colts benching Richardson for Sunday’s encounter with
the Vikings, Downs’ fortunes are looking up -- along with those
of Michael Pittman and, to a lesser extent, Alec Pierce. It also
helps that Minnesota is ranked 30th in pass defense at 263 yards
per game. Downs is a strong WR3 with upside.
For fantasy owners, the benching of Richardson is good news for
anyone that has a Colts receiver, and maybe Taylor as well, though
that might be more of a push. With Flacco, you’re getting
a quarterback with a higher floor and a lower ceiling than the
physically talented but highly inaccurate Richardson. In three
games (two starts), the veteran has passed for 716 yards, 7 TDs,
and 1 INT with the Colts winning two of those games. His matchup
with Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores is among the
more interesting ones in Week 9. Flores had tremendous success
early, but some cracks have begun to appear. Last Thursday, Matthew
Stafford threw for 279 yards and 4 TDs without being sacked in
a Rams win. Flacco is cut from the same cloth as Stafford (seen
it all, limited mobility, strong arm), and he has some weapons.
If your starting QB has a tough matchup, Flacco has legitimate
upside.
Fade: N/A
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
There’s no question that Darnold has cooled off after a hot start.
Over his first four games, the USC product threw for 11 touchdowns.
During his last three, he’s managed just three TD strikes. On
paper, the Colts aren’t a terrible pass defense but given some
of the QBs they’ve faced (Malik Willis, Justin Fields, Will Levis,
Tyler Huntley), the fact that they’re ranked 24th at 227.8 yards
per game tells you there are some holes. The Vikings have had
extra time to prepare for this matchup, and they should be getting
T.J. Hockenson (knee) back in the lineup, giving them another
weapon. Despite his recent trend, Darnold is a decent QB1 option
on Sunday night.
All signs are pointing to Hockenson making his 2024 debut on Sunday
night. The talented tight end suffered two torn ligaments in his
knee roughly 11 months ago and has spent the entire season to
date on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list. While there’s
no denying Hockenson has the skills to be a difference maker,
much has changed since he got hurt, most notably the replacement
of Kirk Cousins with Darnold, and the arrival of Aaron Jones and
a more capable rushing attack. We don’t know how involved
Hockenson will be. As such, the safe play is to keep him out of
your lineup. Then again, if you’re feeling bold, you could
roll the dice and hope he hits the ground running.
Calling Addison’s year-to-date performance a sophomore
slump might be overstating it, but there’s no arguing he
hasn’t been as dangerous as he was as a rookie. After putting
up a 70-911-10 line in 2023, he’s currently on pace for
34-561-3. At times, fantasy owners can be slow to pull the plug
on an underperforming talent like Addison, but with less than
40 yards in three of five games this year you would do well to
stash him on your bench until he starts delivering with more consistency
-- which is far from a sure thing with Hockenson being added to
the mix.
Even before the devastating injuries the Bucs suffered on offense,
former 4th round pick Cade Otton was starting to show some upside
at tight end. In Week’s 2 and 3, he recorded 7 and 6 receptions
respectively, and then picked up a touchdown on 2 receptions a
couple of weeks later. But it’s the injuries that have led
him to securing TE1 status, raking in 10 targets in each of the
last two weeks.
Expect Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo to game plan for him as
much as they can, but with the Chiefs struggling against tight
ends this year – surrendering an 80% completion rate and
9.3 yards per attempt – Otton has a great opportunity to
build on the 17-181-2 line he’s compiled over the last two
weeks.
After Week 8’s three-touchdown, two-interception performance,
Mayfield now has 10 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in his last
three games, and leads the league in both categories. How sustainable
the touchdowns and yards are (three straight 300+ yard performances),
when the turnovers are escalating and both Chris Godwin and Mike
Evans are out of the line up, is a fair question.
Mayfield had 50 pass attempts last week, and often dink-and-dunked
to running backs Bucky Irving (7 receptions) and Rachaad White
(5 receptions), while seeing a nearly impossibly low 4% pressure
rate. The amount of production from Mayfield will likely diminish
against the Chiefs, who have recorded nearly twice as many quarterback
hits as the Falcons, and 2.5 times as many sacks. They’ve also
allowed just 27 receptions and no receiving touchdowns to running
backs.
Stifling to receivers as well, Mayfield’s day may hinge
on how much he can funnel the ball to Otton, where the one hole
in the Chief’s defense exists. It’s hard to sit Mayfield
with the killer fantasy season he’s had to this point, but
be aware that the bottom could fall out at any time, especially
in a tough matchup.
Running back Rachaad White faces a Chiefs defense that has given
up the fewest points per game to running backs, and so whether
he’s even in the flex conversation likely comes down to Irving’s
status. If White isn’t in a time share with both Irving and Sean
Tucker, he stands to see enough volume to be a low-end play at
Flex.
Jalen McMillan has been tasked with being the focal point at
wide receiver since Evans and Godwin got injured two weeks ago,
and perhaps been asked to take on a bit more than he’s ready
for right now. Amassing just 7 receptions on 15 targets for only
50 yards, McMillan is a bit outmatched against most experienced
corners. The Chiefs have allowed the 7th fewest points per game
to opposing wideouts, and that isn’t likely to change McMillan’s
fate for the better in Week 9.
Carrying a toe injury and failing to practice on Thursday, there’s
a chance that Bucky Irving is out this week. HC Todd Bowles did
say that is a situation Irving will be dealing with the rest of
the season. If he does play, facing a Chiefs team that has been
devastating to running backs, allowing just 11.7 total fantasy
points to the position per game, it’d be hard for him to
produce enough to meet flex value in a time share. There’s
also the real risk he aggravates the injury. He’s got the
makings of a wise sit for this week.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Finally, Patrick Mahomes fantasy owners can feel good about starting
the former ace-in-the-hole. He had his first game with multiple
passing touchdowns in four weeks plus DeAndre Hopkins has arrived,
and he should have a bigger impact on the offense moving forward.
Most importantly, Mahomes draws a Bucs defense that has surrendered
4 or more touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in three of the
last four games, and 19 total touchdowns to the position. Surrendering
over 24 points per game to QB’s, Mahomes is in fine position
to have a breakout day.
In a game where the Chiefs offense should see a lot of the red
zone, and with decreased attention on him, Xavier Worthy is once
again a good start at Flex. The Bucs haven’t had a lot of
answers for receivers, giving up the 6th most points to the position.
Worthy has a high ceiling in this game.
Tight end Travis Kelce finally found the end zone last week,
perhaps another benefactor of the Hopkins effect, and it was Kelce’s
best game this season putting up 10 receptions as well. Going
forward, Hopkins remains a serious threat to Kelce’s share
of the offense, and with Kelce once again failing to surpass 10
yards per reception in Week 8, he needs the volume. Concerns remain
real, but the Bucs come to town having allowed a pair of touchdowns
to Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts in recent weeks. Kelce is an easy
start.
DeAndre Hopkins saw 23 snaps in his first game with the Chiefs,
catching a pair of passes for 29 yards on 3 targets. It was a
solid first showing, even if it didn’t mean much on the fantasy
radar. Justin Watson saw a 76% snap rate, but that should fade
week-by-week as Hopkins absorbs his snaps. Until Hopkins shows
he’s acclimated with the offense, he’s a high-risk play, but there
is some high reward against Tampa Bay. He’s a boom or bust option
for Week 9.
Watson saw a rather large snap rate last week - his 3rd straight
game seeing over 70% of snaps. The Chiefs trust him as a blocker,
but he doesn’t do much as a pass catcher (just 4 catches
during that span) and his role is due to shrink. He remains off
the fantasy radar unless you want to roll the dice in a very deep
league, banking on him finding blown coverage against the Swiss
cheese Bucs defense.
