As I enter my 14h year of writing this postseason column, I hope
I have helped some of you along the way supplement your regular-season
fantasy prize winnings.
The layout of this column will remain mostly unchanged from last
season. As was the case last season, my focus will be mostly on
the NFL.com
Playoff Challenge and small-slate DraftKings
Classic tournaments. I will also be adding another challenge
to the lineup this year, which you will find at the bottom of
the article.
The first part of this week's column will be devoted to those
owners who participate in the Playoff Challenge or any other format
in which it is best or required to keep the players you draft
for the duration of the postseason. The second half of the column
is for owners who play in leagues in which you reset your lineup
each week, such as a salary cap setup like DFS. Regardless of
which format(s) you choose to play in, my goal over the next four
articles will be to help each of you through your decision-making
process as you attempt to boost your bottom line.
NFL.com Playoff Challenge/Multi-Week Leagues
For a complete rundown of how players will score fantasy points
for your team, click on the “Rules & Prizing” link
on the NFL.com entry page. Some of the content immediately below
is included on the “How to Play” page, although the
information I provide below should be more than enough to follow
along easily.
The requirements: one QB, two RBs, two WRs, one TE, one K and
one D/ST. You will earn fantasy points based on their on-field performance
during their game, and if your player's team wins, you will have
the option to carry that player over to the next round, where he
will earn a bonus point modifier to his score (which will be referred
to as 2x, 3x and 4x from here on out).
For example,
if you pick Josh Allen in the Wildcard round and the Bills win,
you can carry him over to the Divisional Round, and earn two times
(2x) the points he earns in his divisional round game. If Buffalo
wins again, you can carry Allen into the Conference Championship
round for three times (3x) the points and, if the Bills make the
Super Bowl, you can earn four times (4x) the points. Additionally,
a user can select a player/defense in the Wildcard round even
if their team has a bye into the Divisional Round. In this case,
the user would not earn any points for the Wildcard round, but
be eligible to earn 2x points in the Divisional round, since the
player was on the team’s roster for two weekly scoring periods.
Further bonus point modifiers would also apply as long as that
player’s team continues to advance in the NFL Playoffs.
Before we get into the picks, let us briefly review the rules
and how we may use them to our advantage:
1) passing TDs are worth four points, so passing yards are valued
the same as DraftKings;
2) all field goals under 50 yards are worth three points, which
means we are more concerned about the volume of field goals than
distance – unless we can find a kicker who regularly converts
from 50-plus (DraftKings does not use kickers);
3) this is a non-PPR format, which favors the big-play threats
(DraftKings is PPR); and
4) team wins are worth five points in the NFL.com Playoff Challenge,
so picking a “winning” defense is worth almost a touchdown
before factoring in the modifiers.
If you have a good feeling about which two teams will
meet in the Super Bowl, it is advisable to build your lineup exclusively
with players from those two teams. Most previous playoff
challenge champions' lineups are made up entirely of 4x Super
Bowl participants. (In other words, it is important to project
the Super Bowl entrants first and figure out what players from
those teams to use afterward.) The multipliers are everything
in this contest, so playing the week-to-week matchups are often
meaningless. Think about it this way: if I told you that your
regular-season fantasy team's scoring would double in Week 2,
triple in Week 3 and quadruple in Week 4 if you simply left it
the same, would it affect your draft strategy? Of course it would.
The big week your team might post in the first week of this challenge
- in the somewhat unlikely event you played the matchups perfectly
- is going to seem rather insignificant in early February when
every passing touchdown is worth 16 points, every other TD is
worth 24 and the top teams in this competition are scoring 200-300
(or perhaps more) points per week. There are exceptions, however,
and it can be well worth your while to hit big on a couple of
significant individual performances in the opening round.
As noted earlier, the main challenges are (in order): 1) correctly
predicting the two conference winners and 2) forecasting the best
fantasy players in that hypothetical Super Bowl matchup. This
will be the only Playoff Challenge write-up I do this postseason,
as I have reached the conclusion that any alterations I make to
my lineup in the third and fourth weeks would be in response to
a wrong pick on my part, and my analysis of a 1x or 2x player
isn't going to matter much. Much like in daily fantasy, the chalk
plays probably are not going to win. In other words, be
bold whenever possible! It is a free contest after all,
so crashing and burning - even if it is in front of an audience
like what I am doing - is not such a bad thing when you consider
the reward is much greater than the risk involved.
Below you will find 14 playoff teams ranked in order of the (percentage)
odds I believe they have of making the Super Bowl. I will spend
a bit of time after that attempting to nail the bracket before
talking a little DFS.
1. San Francisco (42%)
2. Philadelphia (40%)
3. Cincinnati (35%)
4. Buffalo (31%)
5. Kansas City (30%)
6. Dallas (8%)
7. Minnesota (5%)
8. Tampa Bay (3%)
9. LA Chargers (1%)
10. NY Giants (1%)
11. Miami (1%)
12. Baltimore (1%)
13. Jacksonville (1%)
14. Seattle (1%)
With that out of the way, let us next focus on my week-to-week
playoff projections and then the players I feel are realistic
alternatives for this four-week sprint to the finish:
AFC - Wildcard: Jaguars over Chargers, Bills
over Dolphins, Bengals over Ravens NFC - Wildcard: 49ers over Seahawks, Vikings
over Giants, Cowboys over Buccaneers
AFC - Divisional: Chiefs over Jaguars, Bills
over Bengals NFC - Divisional: Eagles over Cowboys, 49ers
over Vikings
AFC - Conference Championship: Bills over Chiefs NFC - Conference Championship: 49ers over Eagles
Super Bowl: Bills vs. 49ers
The rankings below are for those readers in similar leagues that
require you to draft players this week and keep them for the duration
of the postseason. The number inside the parentheses refers to how
many games I expect that player/unit to play.
It should not come as a surprise that the four quarterbacks widely
recognized as the best ones playing this weekend are the same
ones atop these rankings. Perhaps I am letting a "win one
for Damar (Hamlin)" mentality set in here by predicting Buffalo
to make it to the Super Bowl, but I think the combination of that
combined with the memory of the pain the Bills experienced losing
in the fashion they did last postseason will get them over the
hump this year. Were it not for his shoulder injury and the likelihood
of facing San Francisco, Hurts would be my top-ranked option.
It would not be a shock to see Mahomes return to the Super Bowl,
but Kansas City is a flawed team that has not played up to its
considerable talent level very often since knocking off the 49ers
in Week 7.
Purdy has been everything San Francisco could have hoped for,
throwing for at least two touchdowns in each of his six games
(five starts) and accounting for three scores twice. Considering
the 49ers have yielded more than 20 points only once during their
10-game winning streak, Purdy is a great 4x candidate. The rest
of Tier 2 is full of quarterbacks who will be extremely lucky
to play more than two games. The Jags are rolling lately due in
large part to Lawrence, but Jacksonville is probably not ready
to challenge Kansas City, Buffalo or Cincinnati quite yet - and
that assumes the Jaguars do not freeze up on their first big-stage
game in a few years this weekend. Minnesota has enjoyed a bit
of a fairytale season by going 11-for-11 in one-score games, but
it has looked bad against good teams a bit too often. An 8-1 home
record is enough of a reason to give Cousins and the Vikings the
nod in the first round, but it is hard to imagine this team taking
their show on the road and coming out of Philadelphia or San Francisco
with a win.
We have seen Dallas play good football more often than Tampa
Bay, which is about the only reason Prescott sits where he does
above. However, Prescott somehow set a career high in interceptions
(15) despite missing five more games than he usually does. Herbert
probably belongs where Lawrence is, but I will take home field
and the better-coached team over the more talented squad more
often than not. If the Bucs can put together a complete game,
they could cruise past Dallas. Unfortunately, Tampa Bay's offense
has sputtered so much and for so long this season that it is hard
to believe it will put it all together now - regardless of how
good Brady usually is in the postseason.
Not a lot of discussion is needed regarding McCaffrey, who is
an elite fantasy option attached to a team with a great chance
to play four games.
Tier 2 begins with a pair of players who are their team's clear
lead back and ends with a player who, in some ways, has become
Patrick Mahomes' preferred option near the goal line. The one
thing all of them have in common is that play for teams that are
legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Mixon has 4x potential just
like McCaffrey does, but Cincinnati's road back to the Super Bowl
includes likely matchups against Buffalo and Kansas City. Even
though I believe the Bengals are the best team in the AFC right
now, the likelihood they can overcome both of the conference's
other top teams in consecutive weeks makes Mixon and his teammates
risky bets in this format. In the case of Sanders and McKinnon,
both players' upside is hurt a bit by having a three-game ceiling.
It also does not help their cause that Philadelphia and Kansas
City are not playing the best ball in their respective conferences
right now.
Buffalo's running backs deserve their own tier mostly because
they are coming very close to splitting touches (knocking them
out of contention for Tier 2) but come with 4x upside. It is a
tossup which one will be more productive if the Bills make it
to the Super Bowl; it may be worth the risk to be contrarian and
take James Cook over Singletary in the hopes that the rookie blows
up in the final game.
There is a strong case to be made that any of the top four backs
in Tier 4 belong in Tier 3. The Chargers and Giants are probably
the two teams most likely to win first-round games of the teams
above I predicted to lose. Getting two games from Ekeler or Barkley
could end up being preferable to either of the Bills' backs playing
four. As for Dalvin Cook and Pollard, I do not have enough faith
in either of their teams winning this weekend to roll the dice
with them in this kind of competition.
Diggs disappointed a bit down the stretch, but he is still an
elite receiver in an elite offense that has a very good chance
to have a 4x next to his name. Even in a stacked receiver field,
that is enough for him to top this list.
If I did not feel as though Buffalo was so motivated to make
a Super Bowl run this year, Chase would likely lead the pack.
He has returned seamlessly from his hip injury and somehow produced
only four single-digit fantasy performances in 32 career games
(including the postseason). Aiyuk's ranking is probably a big
surprise for most readers, but his 4x potential (don’t underestimate
what a 5-80-1 line from him in the Super Bowl would look like
at 4x) makes him well worth considering early in any postseason
draft or competition. The likelihood that Brown is playing later
in the postseason (thereby playing in 2x and 3x games) gives him
a slight edge over Jefferson, who I expect to feast this weekend
before coming back to earth next week against the 49ers. The same
thing I said earlier about Aiyuk holds for Samuel. I’m just
not sure Samuel will get a chance to build the same chemistry
with Brock Purdy this season that Aiyuk already has. Higgins and
Smith are great contrarian plays to Chase and Brown for those
managers who believe the Eagles and Bengals will make it to the
Super Bowl.
Tier 3 is a combination of great one-week options with a realistic
chance to play two games and somewhat marginal two-week options
that are dicey bets to advance past this weekend. The two exceptions
are at the end of the tier. Smith-Schuster has not been a particularly
big part of the offense recently, but the fact he is still technically
the top wide receiver in Kansas City still means something. McKenzie
is not a high-upside option, but all he needs to do is to hit
once during a potential four-game stretch to justify his ranking
above.
It would have been sacrilegious to rank Kittle over Kelce in
any kind of redraft competition a month ago, but the insertion
of Brock Purdy under center has all but eliminated years of somewhat
disappointing touchdown totals for the Iowa product. Kittle's
seven touchdowns over the last four games are more than he had
in any of his previous five NFL seasons. Meanwhile, Kelce has
not scored a touchdown in his last six outings after finding the
end zone 12 times in his first 11. It seems highly unlikely that
will continue - he is averaging 8.3 targets during his scoreless
streak - but I am willing to roll the dice that Kittle will play
twice as many games as Kelce and manage to remain Purdy's favorite
target.
Knox is on a bit of a scoring streak of his own with a touchdown
in each of his last four games. (He only had two through 13 weeks.)
He is certainly capable of a blowup game in any week because he
is a trusted option for Josh Allen and gets the nod at the top
of Tier 2 given his 4x upside, but I can't imagine playing him
over Kittle or Kelce in this kind of competition. Goedert would
slot ahead of Knox if I had the Eagles going to the Super Bowl.
Hockenson would be a Tier 1 option if it were not for the likelihood
the Vikings will be done by next week at the latest. Schultz and
Engram both have 2x upside, but I have no confidence that the
Cowboys or the Jaguars will last very long in the postseason.
Hurst might be as high as No. 3 if I felt the Bengals had a second
straight Super Bowl run in them.
NFL.com Playoff Challenge Roster
QB: Josh Allen
RB: Christian McCaffrey
RB: Saquon Barkley
WR: Stefon Diggs
WR: Ja'Marr Chase
TE: George Kittle
K: Tyler Bass
D/ST: 49ers
DraftKings
Below you will find my position-by-position projections. Please
note I have included DraftKings' dollar value for each player,
followed by their projected point total. Because I went into some
detail above, I will not spend a great deal of time explaining
each projection here - only some of the more notable ones. Each
position is sorted by my DraftKings' projected point total.
Key for quarterbacks, running
backs, receivers and tight ends: P Yds - Passing Yards P TD - Passing Touchdowns INT - Interceptions Ru Yds - Rushing Yards Ru TD - Rushing Touchdowns Rec Yds - Receiving Yards Rec TD - Receiving Touchdowns Rec - Receptions
This appears to be a surprisingly good week at the quarterback position,
which is usually enough of a reason to pay down at the position
and load up at another position or two. Allen is the great play
he usually is, but the shootout potential in Jaguars-Chargers, Giants-Vikings
and Cowboys-Bucs should give DFS players plenty of ideas for builds.
I could endorse each starting quarterback in those games. Will it
play out that way? Probably not, but there should also be no shortage
of fireworks either.
My favorite punt of the bunch (sub-$6K quarterback) would be
Lawrence, followed closely by Jones and Purdy. The Chargers were
playing good football during their four-game winning streak, but
I would question how many of those games came against quality
opponents (MIA, TEN, IND, LAR). What is more is that Los Angeles'
best win of the season may have come against the Dolphins in Week
14, which ended up being a one-score game despite Tua Tagovailoa
finishing 10-of-28. Lawrence will be the best quarterback the
Chargers have faced since Patrick Mahomes in Week 11 or Kyler
Murray in Week 12. Both had their way with LA's defense. The Chargers'
listless effort last week against Denver was alarming as well.
If I could have talked myself into one more touchdown for Jones,
he would be neck-and-neck with Lawrence. Jones probably has the
most rushing upside in this group after Allen and does not turn
the ball over very much. Unfortunately, it is hard to get overly
excited about Jones' ceiling. While he had eight multi-TD efforts
in 2022, he had only one game with three or more. San Francisco
probably will not need Purdy to do much this weekend, but he is
a wonderful floor play regardless (six straight games with at
least two scores).
There is an exceedingly good chance the majority of DFS winning
lineups will have either Ekeler, Barkley or McCaffrey in them. Mike
Williams' back injury may be just enough for Ekeler to stay incredibly
busy in the passing game. After giving him a week off, the Giants
may be poised to ride Barkley as much as possible against the Vikings'
shaky run defense. Although the return of Elijah Mitchell lowers
McCaffrey's volume ceiling, CMC's matchup and role in San Fran's
offense easily keep him inside the top three options at the position.
Playing Etienne and Pollard together could be a savvy move given
the relatively high cost of the first three players, if only because
the savings should be enough to get another elite receiver under
the 50K cap. I would not venture too far below the top five running
back options as I have them listed very often. In those rare cases,
I would think long and hard about Mitchell, Singletary and Cook.
While 49ers-Seahawks may fit into the "division rivals usually
play each other close" narrative, HC Kyle Shanahan will likely
have no problem giving some of CMC's 20-plus touches to Mitchell
during the four-minute drill (if the game is unexpectedly close)
or garbage time. With Miami expected to start its third-string
quarterback this weekend, Buffalo could easily end up running
the clock out for most of the second half if Allen & Co. catch
fire in the first half.
It seems unlikely that many people will fade Jefferson just because
he did not do much in Week 17 or Week 18, but he should be as close
to a roster lock as there is in DFS this weekend. The Vikings attacked
CB Fabian Moreau relentlessly with Jefferson in their Week 16 meeting
and it is not as if the Giants have great options to contain the
All-Pro receiver even if targeting Moreau is not the primary focus
again this week. It would not be overly surprising if my pro-Allen
stance this week ends up backfiring, but I still think he is worth
the risk at his price tag if Mike Williams (back) ends up being
as limited as I think he will be. I would be willing to use Godwin
and Lamb interchangeably for the most part. While I want shares
of both in my lineups, the fact Godwin is significantly cheaper
($1300) would make me lean in his direction more often.
Lockett has been the one Seahawk immune to San Francisco's defense
this year, posting a 9-107-0 line on 11 targets in Week 2 and
a 7-68-0 line in Week 15. I would not expect that to change this
week, as the 49ers likely have no desire to watch Metcalf take
over instead. My favorite value plays at receiver are a pair of
sub-5K Giants in Hodgins and James. Using both in lineups is not
only a relatively high-upside play given they are facing a lackluster
Minnesota secondary, but their combined price of 8K could end
up offering enough savings to DFS players to pay up for Jefferson
and not shy away from the elite options at running back and/or
tight end.
Despite what my projections say, it is either Hockenson or Kittle
for me this week. Anthony Brown appears to be in line for the start
against the Bengals, which makes Andrews a scary bet for the touchdown
I have projected for him. Conversely, Hockenson tore up the Giants
in Week 16 (13-109-2) and Kittle is on an incredible four-game run
and facing a defense this week that has proven repeatedly it cannot
stop tight ends.
Schultz makes sense as a mid-range option given how often Tampa
Bay has given up a touchdown to tight ends this season AND how
much Dak Prescott checks down to him. The only other tight end
from this bunch that will likely appear on multiple rosters of
mine is Knox. The problem with him is he feels so much more like
a touchdown-or-bust option than the other three players I am willing
to recommend this week.
Key for defense/special teams units: PA - Points allowed TD - Defensive/return touchdowns TO - Total turnovers PA Bonus - Points allowed bonus for DraftKings
Defense / Special
Teams
Team
DK $
PA
Sacks
TD
TO
PA Bonus
DK
Bills
$3,300
10
4
3
1
4
20.0
Bengals
$3,500
13
4
2
1
4
13.0
49ers
$3,600
13
5
2
0
4
13.0
Giants
$3,000
30
5
2
0
-1
8.0
Cowboys
$3,400
20
4
1
0
1
7.0
Jaguars
$2,700
27
3
1
0
0
5.0
Vikings
$3,200
27
3
1
0
0
5.0
Chargers
$3,100
31
3
1
0
-1
4.0
Buccaneers
$2,600
23
2
1
0
0
4.0
Ravens
$2,500
30
2
1
0
-1
3.0
Seahawks
$2,400
34
1
0
0
-1
0.0
Dolphins
$2,300
38
1
0
0
-4
-3.0
I doubt I have ever predicted a 20-point week for any defense/special
teams unit in all of my years of doing this column, but it is incredibly
rare for a playoff team to trot out its third-string quarterback
against an inspired opponent that is also one of the most likely
teams to play in the Super Bowl. Cincinnati is also expected to
face a third-string quarterback, although the combination of Baltimore's
stout defense and running game should allow the Ravens to play within
their comfort zone a bit longer. My favorite punt here is the Jaguars,
but I don't think I can recommend them too much when a unit like
the Bills is only $600 more.
FFPC Playoff Challenge
Due to popular demand, I am adding another section to this edition
of the Road to the Super Bowl. The FFPC offers a yearly playoff
challenge in which managers must put together a 12-man
fantasy squad, selecting no more than one player from each NFL
team. Similar to the NFL Playoff Challenge above, players
accumulate points throughout their time in the playoffs - be it
for one game or four. Unlike the NFL Playoff Challenge, there
is no ability to change players once rosters are set and locked
for the first round of the postseason. Additionally, the only
time the multiplier kicks in is for the Super Bowl (2x).
Because I have expressed my thoughts on many players in the previous
sections, I will just share the lineup I would use in this competition.
Kicker and defense/special teams are essentially throwaway positions
from the perspective that it makes no sense to use those spots
on players/units from the top Super Bowl contenders because they
are the lowest-scoring positions.
QB: Josh Allen
RB: Christian McCaffrey
RB: Saquon Barkley
WR: Justin Jefferson
WR: CeeDee Lamb
TE: Travis Kelce
FLEX1: Austin Ekeler
FLEX2: Travis Etienne
FLEX3: Ja'Marr Chase
FLEX4: A.J. Brown
K: Justin Tucker
DST: Buccaneers
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
