One of the many ways a fantasy manager can establish his/her team
as a contender is by correctly identifying which players off to
a fast start can continue it. Conversely, one of the easiest ways
for a fantasy manager to remove his/her team from consideration
is by getting fooled by the fast start.
Which players fall into what group? My goal this week is to help
readers figure that out. I will highlight players who currently
rank inside the top 20 scorers at quarterback and tight end and
the top 40 scorers at running back and receiver and explain which
ones have staying power and which ones most likely do not.
Why? Most have us have been burned by Darnold
at one point or another during his NFL career. For many of us,
we were probably fooled the most at the start of the 2021 season
when he earned some early league MVP buzz while directing a Joe
Brady-led offense (10 total touchdowns versus three interceptions
over his first four games). He quickly flamed out after that,
although it certainly did not help his cause that Christian McCaffrey
got hurt the game before it all went south and did not return
until the game he was benched.
So why will this year be different? We have seen HC Kevin O'Connell
work his magic with multiple quarterbacks. By his own admission,
Darnold learned how to prepare like a pro quarterback in San Francisco
last year after not getting much help in that regard with the
Jets and Panthers. He has arguably the best receiver in the game
at his disposal in Justin Jefferson and more help is on the way
(Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson). While there is almost no
chance he remains a top-five fantasy quarterback, we have already
seen him perform at a high level against two very good defenses
in the 49ers and Texans. As long as he continues to play the way
he has to this point, a QB12-15 finish seems more likely than
not.
Why? I spoke about Mayfield at length two
weeks ago and stand by most of those thoughts even though
the Buccaneers somehow got smacked around by the Broncos at home
in Week 3. That performance marked only the third time in Mayfield's
last 14 starts (including playoffs) that he failed to account
for at least two touchdowns. Mayfield is taking far too many sacks
(13), so the primary concern with him might be holding up for
17 games if that does not change soon. Otherwise, it seems unlikely
Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan, Rachaad White and Bucky
Irving will allow Mayfield to fail from a fantasy perspective.
I am not sure another top-12 finish is in the cards for him, but
I think it is possible.
Why? To be fair, new OC Klint Kubiak will probably guide Carr
to his best fantasy finish since at least 2020 and 2021 (13th).
(He ranked 17th in 2022 and 16th in 2023.) With that said, I think
Eagles DC Vic Fangio gave the rest of the league the blueprint
to slow down the Saints in Week 3. (The Athletic's Ted Nguyen
wrote an excellent piece about it earlier in the week.) To summarize
the article, Fangio leaned on a 6-1 front to create chaos in the
running game for Alvin Kamara and a soft zone behind it to neutralize
most of the explosive plays New Orleans hit in the first two games
through max protection and two-man routes.
Even with the Saints' running game not working for the first
time all season, Carr only attempted a season-high 25 passes.
While Carr will undoubtedly throw more than 25 times on several
occasions moving forward, it seems clear Kubiak and HC Dennis
Allen want to lean on their defense and the running game as much
as possible. Carr will hit big in fantasy on occasion moving forward
if only because Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are big-play receivers,
but low volume and a difficult upcoming schedule (@ATL, @KC, TB)
does not bode well for Carr repeating what he did in the first
two weeks anytime soon.
Why? Charbonnet's current ranking is about what
most fantasy managers were expecting from Kenneth Walker, who
might be pushing Barkley and Kamara for overall RB1 honors right
now if he had the same workload his teammate has received in his
absence. While fantasy managers may be convinced Charbonnet has
done enough over the last two weeks to earn more playing time
once Walker returns from his oblique injury, the fact of the matter
is Week 3 was the first time in his career he ran for more than
60 yards. It was also the first time in five NFL games he averaged
more than 3.5 yards per carry in a game he ran at least 10 times.
The new coaching staff made it clear during the preseason and
again in Week 1 that they want Walker to be their workhorse. Perhaps
another injury to Walker over the next month convinces them to
reduce his workload, but that seems unlikely.
Why? Count me in among the crowd who wants to
see Dobbins be the first true Achilles success story. With that
said, I will continue to believe the best time to cash in your
chips and get what you could for him in a trade was before Week
3. Dobbins took advantage of some weak run defenses over the first
two games (Raiders and Panthers) before the Steelers held him
in check in Week 3. Among his biggest issues now is the health
of his teammates, as Justin Herbert (ankle), RT Joe Alt (knee),
LT Rashawn Slater (pectoral) and RG Trey Pipkins (foot) are among
the walking wounded. There is a decent chance the first three
players miss Week 4 before the team's Week 5 bye. Perhaps everyone
is back healthy in Week 6 (unlikely), but the bigger concern at
that point becomes if Dobbins can play 13 straight games (or most
of them) when he has never done that as a professional.
Why? To some degree, we may already be seeing
the effects of Mason carrying a consistently heavy workload for
the first time in his college or pro career. Although his efficiency
has declined in each of the last two games since his Week 1 breakout,
it is far too early to conclude that he is wearing down. San Francisco's
upcoming home games against New England and Arizona should give
us a better answer about his ability to be a workhorse week after
week. I believe he will continue on his path of being the latest
Kyle Shanahan success story at running back. However, it was alarming
to watch the Rams hold him in check after two other power backs
(David Montgomery and James Conner) ran through them in Weeks
1-2.
The "to a point" above is a reference in part to my belief that
rookie Isaac Guerendo will continue to push Mason for playing
time (likely no more than five to eight touches per game) if Shanahan
detects any hint of slippage from Mason. Christian McCaffrey will
also return at some point, although the possibility of him playing
before November or even December seems to grow more nebulous by
the week.
Why? This is a difficult question to answer because Singletary
appears to be a good bet to handle at least 15 touches every week,
so he should have staying power from a volume perspective. There
are enough "soft" matchups for him over the rest of
the season for him to provide more than enough return on the investment
fantasy that managers made in him. What makes me question Singletary
is his ability to hold up all season and the threat Tyrone Tracy
presents down the road. Singletary is on a 238-carry pace after
four games (last year's 216 was easily a career high) and seemed
to decline after consecutive high-usage efforts around midseason
in a good Houston offense last season. New York needs its run
game to work more this year than Houston needed it last year,
so Singletary cannot afford to see his efficiency fall off very
often. Tracy is already seeing his playing time grow and it should
surprise no one if ends up becoming the preferred option on passing
downs given his history as a receiver. Singletary cannot afford
to lose much work as a receiver if he is going to remain the high-end
RB2 he has been through three weeks.
Why? Some of the same things I said earlier
about Charbonnet apply to Mattison. Neither back has been efficient.
Most of their fantasy success has been tied to the fact they are
among the league leaders in touchdowns. Over half of Mattison's
fantasy points are a result of him scoring three times, which
is not sustainable - especially for a player of his talents. He
has 27 yards on 12 carries and seven catches for 80 yards - 31
of which came because of some poor
defensive fundamentals by the Chargers in Week 1. Fantasy
managers already know what Mattison is. While there is probably
a small chance HC Antonio Pierce makes a change for change's sake
and gives Mattison more work than Zamir White, the Raiders have
bigger problems than who the lead back is in this offense. If
anyone in your league is offering something of value in return
for Mattison - even a kicker like Brandon Aubrey or Minnesota
DST (hey, stranger things have happened) - move him.
Why? You know why. Brandon Aiyuk will eventually
rekindle the connection he has with Brock Purdy. Deebo Samuel
and George Kittle will return to action within the next week or
two. Ricky Pearsall likely is not too far away from making his
NFL debut. Jennings is a good receiver who just happens to be
stuck behind two very good receivers and a very good tight end.
Why? Talking about Lazard's legitimacy as a
fantasy asset was not something I anticipated discussing anymore.
Once again, the answer to this question comes down to expectations.
Lazard is not a top-15 receiver. You do not need me to tell you
that. He is not even a top 36 receiver in all likelihood. However,
I believe he will continue to see high-value targets in an Aaron
Rodgers-led offense. Garrett Wilson will likely continue to push
for a 30 percent target share, but he will not catch a break matchup-wise
for at least another month (DEN, @MIN, BUF, @NE, HOU). Each of
those opponents either has high-end corners to keep Wilson somewhat
in check, a great defensive scheme or both. Opponents will also
make Wilson the focus of their game plan. That means there should
be ample opportunity for Mike Williams, Tyler Conklin and Lazard
to remain highly involved. Expect Williams' snaps and role to
grow in the coming weeks, but another part of believing in Lazard
is remembering that Williams is a poor bet to stay healthy. Lazard
has already proven he can be a quality complementary receiver
in the league, even if it happened a few years ago. He is one
of Rodgers' guys and that means something. Lazard should remain
a WR4/flex consideration for the foreseeable future, especially
if Williams succumbs to injury again.
Why? As long as Anthony Richardson is healthy,
Pierce will be a threat to score on a big play. With that said,
the Colts' low-volume passing offense just got back a potential
target hog in Josh Downs last week. Downs returned from injury
in Week 3 and immediately served as the first read on a third
of Richardson's 20 pass attempts. The team is already struggling
to get Michael Pittman Jr. enough targets and seems to value Downs
in the same kind of light as Pittman. Pierce will always have
a chance to score when a quarterback with Richardson's arm strength
is throwing the rock, but he figures to be highly inconsistent
for fantasy purposes moving forward if Pittman and Downs stay
healthy.
Why? The only thing fantasy managers should question about Shakir's
profile right now is a relative lack of targets (14). The good
news is he has caught all of them - a level of efficiency that
he proved he could maintain last season (39 catches on 45 targets).
Ultimately, this offense may spread the wealth a bit too much
for Shakir to be anything more than a rock-solid WR3, but he is
for real. If OC Joe Brady decides to call a few more plays for
him in the coming weeks, he could easily finish as the WR17 or
better.
Why? Anyone who read my content or tuned in
to my podcast over the summer knows how much I valued Iosivas
in the final rounds of drafts. I am not sure I was expecting WR28
after three weeks and I sure do not expect him to stay that high
very long. As much as I want to believe he can score a touchdown
on 30 percent of his catches moving forward, I will take the under
on that bet. What we do know from the last two weeks alone is
that Joe Burrow and HC Zac Taylor believe he is a red zone weapon.
Here is something else to consider: there is a small chance that
players begin checking out if the team is unable to recover quickly
from its 0-3 start. Tee Higgins voiced displeasure with his contract
situation over the summer (which could lead to him checking out
early to preserve his health for his pending free agency) and
has struggled with hamstring injuries over the last 9-10 months.
That alone gives Iosivas two potential outs. Even if everyone
stays healthy, Week 3 served as proof that Iosivas can be quite
useful for fantasy purposes even if he only works in Tyler Boyd's
old role.
Why? Mooney was one of my favorite WR4 picks late in drafts given
the relative lack of competition he had for targets after Drake
London and Kyle Pitts - especially after Atlanta lost Rondale
Moore for the season over the summer - in a Kirk Cousins-led offense.
That looked like a bad call on my part after Week 1, but it turned
out the Steelers' defense was better than I gave it credit for
entering the season. Since then, Mooney has attracted 15 targets.
While his 41-yard touchdown in Week 2 was the kind of play I expected
him to hang his hat on - as long as London and Pitts were healthy
- I was most encouraged by how often he was targeted on quick
screens in Week 3. I would not have predicted Mooney being the
first read on 24.1 percent of the team's targets through three
contests either. While I would expect that number to drop a bit
as new OC Zac Robinson works Pitts into the offense more often,
Mooney could get most of any potential lost production back by
working deep. Robinson should dial up more deep shots as Cousins
gets further away from his Achilles' injury and begins to get
more comfortable doing it (which he has not been to this point).
It speaks to how bad things have been at tight end that Likely
has done virtually nothing in fantasy since Week 1 and still ranks
as TE5 for the season. Among the 20 tight ends listed above, 25
percent of them are averaging less than six points. As such, it
makes it difficult to suggest anyone from this group has staying
power because no one is distinguishing himself.
As a result, I will double down on a player I discussed last
week. I do not know if Cincinnati will commit to him in the
next couple of weeks or next season, but Erick
All's time is coming. It will only be a matter of time before
he pushes Drew Sample aside as the primary blocking tight end.
Gesicki has never been a great blocker, which will become more
of an issue for the Bengals as the season progresses. To be clear,
this is not a LaPorta circa 2023 situation, but I can easily imagine
a scenario in which he takes over for Gesicki around midseason
and makes a push for low-end TE1 status. Given the state of the
position, I would rather target young upside than hope I can predict
one of the four or five weeks someone like Hunter Henry might
find the end zone in New England.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and joined the
Fantasy Points website before the start of the 2024 season. He is
also a highly successful high-stakes player who often appears as
a guest analyst on Sirius XM. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association. Please check out his new podcast with
JJ Wenner called "The All-Out Blitz."
