There’s been a slight uptick in production recently for Gallup,
who has 15 catches for 101 yards and three touchdowns in the last
four games. This week he faces a Titans defense that has been
scorched in the passing game, allowing over 4,100 passing yards
on the season and 26 TDs through the air, second-most in the NFL.
With receiving back Tony Pollard likely out this week, Gallup
is second in line for targets behind CeeDee Lamb against a Tennessee
secondary that is allowing an NFL-high 26.7 fantasy points per
game to WR’s.
Since the end of November, Schultz has just one game with at
least four catches, one game of at least 50 yards, and hasn’t
seen the end zone in that entire stretch. That’s concerning for
one of the more prolific TE’s in the game. But this week, he gets
a favorable (very favorable) matchup against the Titans and could
be in line for more work with RB Tony Pollard likely on the sidelines.
Pollard has been the Cowboys’ best running back dating back to
last season. But with Dallas’ postseason status essentially determined,
and Pollard nursing a thigh injury, he isn’t likely to play this
week, and even if he does, I would expect his contributions to
be limited. He’s labeled a gametime decision. Malik Davis would
see increased opportunities as Zeke's backup if Pollard sits.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Derrick Henry is Doubtful and looks to be out this week, so Haskins
steps into the starting role for a team that by all appearances
last week, can’t throw the ball. This is a negative matchup but
he’ll get 20+ carries in this game and should post RB2 numbers
at minimum.
There’s not much to look at in this passing game, but from where
I’m sitting, there isn’t a much more reliable target for QB Malik
Willis than Hooper. While his opportunities have been limited,
he has averaged 10.0 yards per catch or more in four of the last
five contests. Willis has started three games for the Titans and
has yet to top 100 yards passing in those games, so keep your
expectations in check.
The Week 18 game against Jacksonville is critical to the Titans
playoff hopes. Not so much in Week 17, so with Henry nursing a
bad hip, he will likely sit this one out and make sure he’s
healthy for the finale.
We likely won’t know the status of running back Alvin Kamara
(quad, personal) until the weekend and potentially not until an
hour before game time. That makes things extremely difficult to
predict for fantasy, as Kamara’s involvement in the offense is
obviously an important factor. If we assume that Kamara plays
then he might be the only starter in the offense who fantasy managers
should have much interest in this weekend in a tough matchup against
a good Philadelphia defense. If he does sit, however, the Saints
offense will likely need to make significant changes, including
a split backfield between veterans David Johnson and Eno Benjamin.
That’s not really exciting for fantasy, but what could become
interesting is how the Saints choose to deploy Taysom Hill. Hill
has been relevant in a number of weeks due to the fact that he’s
tight end eligible on most platforms. He could see increased usage
if Kamara is out, with the Saints hoping to get some explosive
plays out of him if the rest of the offense struggles, which seems
fairly likely. Even if he only carries the ball a handful of times
and attempts a pass or two, that could make him a TE1 for the
week. His upside is much higher than that, as well.
Rookie wide receiver Chris Olave missed the first game of his
professional career this past week and the impact was immediately
noticeable in the Saints offense. Andy Dalton attempted just 15
passes on the day and although much of that was due to the weather,
it was also apparent that the team was just not confident airing
it out without their top wide receiver. The rookie continues to
dominate the looks in the passing game and that could be even
more true this week as the Saints could be without Alvin Kamara
and thus may end up leaning on their passing game more than usual.
Olave has been a strong WR2 for most of the season and while he
faces a tough Philadelphia defense, he’s a good bet to have another
solid fantasy day.
While Chris Olave still looks like a good bet to be a fantasy
WR2 this week, the same can’t really be said for fellow
wide receiver Rashid Shaheed. Shaheed has actually been pretty
productive over the past few weeks, and he saw a season-high 33
percent target share in Week 16, but he has not yet seen more
than five targets in any game this season. That five-target game
this past week came in a contest where the Saints were without
Olave, so it’s hard to really think that will continue as
we now expect Olave to be back in this one. He’s not completely
worthless, but you’d have to be in a very deep league to
consider Shaheed this week.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Back-to-back poor fantasy performances from Miles Sanders have
contributed to a lot of fantasy managers being knocked out of
their playoffs. But for those who have been able to battle through
it, it might be wise to stay the course with Sanders here in Week
17. Despite his poor efficiency, Sanders has remained extremely
involved in the Eagles' offense, including a 22-touch day in the
loss to the Cowboys in Week 16. It’s looking increasingly likely
that Jalen Hurts will be back on the field this week which would
help the offense as a whole and increase Sanders’ chances for
a touchdown, but either way, he’s a good bet to have 15 or more
touches and that’s very difficult to find at this point in the
season with all the injuries at the position. The Saints gave
up 100 rushing yards this past week to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt,
and the previous game saw them get absolutely torched by Atlanta’s
Tyler Allgeier. This is an exploitable defense and one that Sanders
could really crush if given the opportunity.
We don’t really know what’s going to happen at quarterback
for the Eagles this week, but reports seem to indicate that there’s
a good chance that Jalen Hurts will be back. If he is, we should
assume that he’s healthy enough to be a fantasy starter
again, although he could find himself resting on the bench if
the score gets too far out of range in either team’s direction,
which would definitely limit his upside. If he doesn’t play,
though, Gardner Minshew looks like a decent start again. The Saints
have been pretty good against opposing quarterbacks as of late,
but their schedule has also seen them face one of the easiest
stretches of QBs imaginable. Minshew isn’t some stud, but
he put up nice numbers against the Cowboys and this group of pass-catchers
is by far the best he’s ever had in his career. Look for
him to toss another couple of touchdown passes and be a solid
low-end QB1 if he gets the start.
It’s certainly good that the Eagles got tight end Dallas
Goedert back as they look forward to the playoffs, but the tight
end wasn’t nearly as involved in the offense as we would
have expected him to be heading into the game. Goedert dominated
the snaps at tight end, which is a positive note, but he saw just
three targets on Minshew’s 40 attempts against the Cowboys.
Sure, he caught all three of them for 67 yards so it wasn’t
a complete disaster or anything, but his low overall usage in
a game that his team lost would seem to indicate that he may not
be back to being fully healthy quite yet and/or he just doesn’t
have a great connection with Minshew quite yet. He does play tight
end so it’s tough to strong push for him to be benched,
but he’s not as strong of a TE1 as usual, especially as
he faces a New Orleans defense that has given up the league’s
fewest fantasy points to the position so far this season.
Herbert returned from IR in Week 16, playing 26 snaps to Montgomery’s
42. He posted just three yards on eight combined touches as Buffalo
locked down the Chicago running game. The Lions, meanwhile, were
busy getting absolutely torched by the Panthers, which ran for
320 yards and three touchdowns. Expect the Bears to lean on the
trio of Fields, Montgomery, and Herbert here as they did back
in Week 10 when Chicago posted 258 yards and 2 TDs. Fifty-seven
of those went to Herbert, who is a flex play with solid upside
in this weekend’s rematch.
With the Bears passing for just 129 yards versus the Bills, Kmet
led the club in both catches (5) and targets (6) but gained only
27 yards. He was far more effective in the initial meeting between
these two clubs, posting 74 yards and a pair of touchdowns on
four receptions in Week 10. The Bears’ passing game is impossible
to trust, hence the “on the fence” designation, but
Kmet is capable of returning top-10 TE value.
Fade: N/A
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
With the Lions operating out of a deep hole in the second half
against Carolina, Goff put up 355 yards and 3 TDs through the
air -- it was by far his best road performance of the season as
he entered play having thrown just three touchdowns in six previous
games away from Ford Field. Back in the cozy dome, Goff should
have plenty of chances to air it out against the Bears, which
haven’t held anyone under 25 points since Oct. 24. There
is some level of risk given how leaky Chicago’s run defense
is, but the Lions tend to be pretty balanced, which makes Goff
a reasonable choice as a QB1.
Only St. Brown can truly be trusted week in, and week out in Detroit’s
passing game. That said, Chark has surpassed 90 yards receiving
in three of his last four outings while providing a deep presence
that complements the short/intermediate work done by ASB. Williams,
meanwhile, has tailed off considerably over the last month, gaining
less than 40 yards in each game and scoring just one of his 14
TDs. He also picked up a leg injury, so we’ll see what level
of involvement he has in Week 17. Both players can be plugged
in as flex options with upside, but there’s also some notable
downside.
In the four games since Sam Darnold’s return, Moore has become
a viable fantasy receiver, posting three games of at least 70
yards (including a 100-yard effort), three TD’s, and is averaging
over 15 yards per catch. Darnold doesn’t get to throw it often
(averaging 23 attempts in his last three games), but when he does,
he’s usually looking for Moore, and this week he has a chance
to make some noise against a banged-up Tampa secondary.
Foreman has posted five 100-yard efforts in his last nine games,
and he certainly blew the doors off the Lions defense last week
with 165 ground yards. Carolina has committed itself to the run
game in recent weeks, but Tampa’s defense is fairly stout
against the run (only 6 rush TDs allowed), and after watching
last week’s film, I expect they’ll be waiting for
Foreman. He will get carries, but I suspect he’ll have a
hard time finding 100 yards in this one.
Darnold has been efficient in his four-game return to the lineup,
completing 61% of his passes with four TD and no interceptions,
and he’s averaging over 10.0 yards per attempt over the
last two games. But the volume just isn’t there as he’s
yet to attempt 25 passes in any contest.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
These Buccaneers still don’t look like themselves on offense,
but there have been signs of life. Godwin’s double-digit
targets in three of the last five games is one of them. QB Tom
Brady is about ball-control in the passing game, and that puts
Godwin squarely in the crosshairs this week. I wouldn’t
be surprised to se a 100-yard outing from him in a game that will
play a deciding factor in the NFC South race.
The good news is Brady has at least 40 attempts in each of the
last five games, and his yardage totals are up the last two weeks.
He also has 9 TD’s over the last month. Unfortunately, he
also has seven interceptions, and his yards per attempt is below
6.0 over the last five games.
White had been a growing force in the run game and appeared to
have taken over as the RB1 in Tampa. Then, last week, he became
an afterthought playing just 36% of the snaps while Fournette
played 61%. If Leonard Fournette is back in the picture in a significant
way, as he was last week, White’s production is going to
take a hit.
With Sutton out, Jeudy has passed the eye-test, showing good
burst and quickness on the field and has racked up 27 targets
in the last three weeks including 10 last week with Sutton back
in the lineup. We know the Broncos team environment is ugly. Russell
Wilson has been down right bad and not a drive goes by without
a receiver displaying frustration at the QB’s decision-making.
This is a negative game-script play, in a similar manner to last
week, when Jeudy totaled six catches for 117 yards and the Chiefs
defense has given up 19 TDs on the season to wide receivers, 2nd-most
in the league.
Wilson’s best fantasy game of the season came against this same
bunch back in Week 13 when he finished with a 247-3-1 line and
also ran for 57 yards. Wilson was also concussed in this game
so his stat line could’ve been bigger. His brutal play on the
season is an obvious concern, but this game sets up in his favor,
likely playing from behind much of the day. KC’s 31 passing TDs
allowed is by far the most of any defense. Most people in their
fantasy championships have legitimate QB1 options, but if you’re
missing Jalen Hurts or just lost Tua, Wilson might be a risky
option.
We may see Dulcich on the inactive list this week as he’s missed
practice time after injuring his hamstring late last week against
the Rams. Even if he does suit up, I’d be inclined to look for
other options given Courtland Sutton is back in the mix and the
Broncos propensity for using multiple tight ends. Eric Saubert
and Eric Tomlinson could easily be used more if the rookie is
less than 100%.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
McKinnon’s hot streak over the last four weeks including a 7-112-2
game through the air against these same Broncos. While we can’t
expect a repeat performance, there’s certainly enough juice here
for a solid game against a team that just fired their head coach
and has thrown in the towel on the season. It’s difficult to project
Isiah Pacheco and McKinnon on a week-to-week basis. While the
two have somewhat defined roles, there also is a bit of a hot-hand
aspect that is extremely variable, which gives fantasy owners
and prognosticators fits. Still, the Chiefs most trusted running
back has scored in four straight games and should be good for
at least 15 touches here with no weather concerns making him a
solid RB2. Update:
Mecole Hardman is Out.
JuJu has been the Chiefs most reliable fantasy wide receiver this
season, leading the group in targets (96), receptions (74) and
yards (877). He does have a couple 100-yard games under his belt
and has seen double-digit targets in two out of his last three
games. However, the spread the ball around nature of this offense
makes him a fragile WR2 and the group as a whole is getting healthier.
Kadarius Toney saw an increased snap share last week and Mecole
Hardman is expected back after a long layoff with an abdominal
injury. The good news is that JuJu put up 9-74-1 on the Broncos
just three weeks ago. The bad news is that Denver is still the
toughest matchup for fantasy wide receivers. I’d still lean towards
a low-end WR2 value on JuJu as we could see some softening on
the Broncos defense with just two games to go.
The chances of Pittman finishing as a WR1 for fantasy seem to
have completely dissipated. With that said, Pittman remains a
fairly solid mid-to-low-end WR2 for the season and he now heads
into a matchup against a Giants defense that has given up 13 or
more fantasy points to eight different wide receivers over their
past four games, including a whopping 12-catch game to Justin
Jefferson this past week. We shouldn’t expect that kind of explosive
output from Pittman with the team starting Nick Foles at quarterback,
but he’s likely to see between seven to 10 targets depending on
the game situation, so that should be enough to make him at least
a WR3, with solid WR2 upside.
With 36 carries and a near-70-percent snap share over his two
starts since Jonathan Taylor went down, Zack Moss has been given
the opportunity to produce for fantasy managers, he just hasn’t
been efficient enough to actually do so. He’s averaging just over
four yards per carry in those two starts which is fine but not
spectacular and unfortunately, he’s playing on a team that just
is not moving the ball effectively through the air. That’s meant
very few red zone opportunities and without much passing game
usefulness, Moss remains a mediocre option. He could still have
some value, especially in non-PPR leagues, but he’s a pretty low
upside choice here in Week 17.
Super Bowl ring aside, Foles has never been much of a fantasy
quarterback. The Colts’ newest starter in their carousel
of mediocrity, Foles threw for just 143 yards, no touchdowns,
and three interceptions in his Week 16 opportunity. The Giants
are a middle-of-the-pack matchup, but fantasy managers should
be looking pretty much anywhere else for quarterback play this
week.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Jones is coming off of just his second 300-yard passing game
of the season and he now heads into a matchup against a Colts
team that has gone into tank mode. They were able to hold Justin
Herbert in check this past week, but don’t look too much into
that as they still lost by multiple scores and the Chargers really
didn’t need to implement their vertical passing game. The Giants
were completely lit up in their previous two games as Dak Prescott
threw for three touchdowns against them and Kirk Cousins added
four more the following week. Jones isn’t likely to throw for
a bunch of touchdowns, but he should deliver at least one with
the possibility of a couple while adding a few more points with
his legs. Jones has been inconsistent at best this season so it’s
understandable if you’re not willing to trust him with your fantasy
championship on the line, but with so many weird situations happening
throughout the league, Jones makes for an interesting one-week
fill-in for QB-needy teams.
Coinciding with Daniel Jones’ big Week 16 performance,
we saw some nice performances from some unlikely receivers as
both Richie James and Isaiah Hodgins saw double-digit targets
in the Giants’ loss to the Vikings. James has now seen 25
targets over his past three games, resulting in two very usable
fantasy performances. Hodgins, meanwhile, has been seeing his
usage increase as of late, including playing nearly every snap
for the Giants this past week. He’s caught at least four
passes in now four straight contests, including a touchdown in
three of those four games. It might be a bit fluky, but fantasy
managers who are in desperate situations could do worse than these
two New York wideouts.
While he remains the top Giants wide receiver from a snaps perspective,
fantasy managers rostering Slayton have not been rewarded with
much production on the stat sheet. He’s caught just 11 passes
on 16 targets over his past three games and he hasn’t scored
a touchdown since Week 10. He’s fallen behind both James
and Hodgins from a fantasy perspective and the Giants' offense
just isn’t good enough to support three fantasy-relevant
receivers.
It’s hard to not pick Etienne here. Seemingly over his
foot issues, he has 186 rushing yards over the last two games
and has taken over a full RB1 load again, and this week he faces
the worst run defense in the league in the Texans. HC Doug Pederson
will be happy to grind this one out in preparation of their Week
18 battle for the AFC South crown against Tennessee.
In recent weeks, Zay Jones has taken over as the hot receiver
in Jacksonville, though Kirk has been the season-long WR1. This
week, he faces a Texans defense that does a pretty good job of
limiting opponents in the passing game, allowing the second-fewest
fantasy points to the position. So, while he may be on your roster,
I’m not sure this is the week he gets back on track.
With Christin Kirk ensconced as the WR1 since the beginning of
the season, and Zay Jones, Evan Engram, and even Travis Etienne
all emerging in the passing attack, there’s little room
for the veteran Jones to provide significant fantasy value during
championship week.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Cooks had nine targets, his most since Week 2, and a touchdown
in Week 16. But he doesn’t have a 100-yard game on his resume
this season and hasn’t even approached his season high 82
yards in Week 1. Someone has to catch the ball in this offense.
Cooks should at least get some opportunities to do so, but he’s
no more than a WR3/Flex play in the final game of your season.
I thought early in the season that Mills was trending in the
right direction. But as things have gone off the rails in Houston,
and Jeff Driskel has been added to the QB mix, he has clearly
lost confidence and his solid grip on the starting job. Driskel
is getting four to six passing attempts and a few rushing attempts
per game which is more than enough to kill whatever value Mills
has.
Brown’s targets and catches have taken a hit since returning
from his foot injury. Part of that is understandable as DeAndre
Hopkins (knee) was out the first six weeks, leaving Browns as
the main attraction in the passing game. Since returning to the
field in Week 12, Brown’s efficiency has been lacking but he did
turn three catches into 57 yards in limited action in Week 16.
Facing a struggling Atlanta secondary, with QB Colt McCoy back
in the fray, Brown could be a nice flex option in your championship
game.
McCoy has cleared concussion protocol and could be back in the
starting lineup. When one of the best receivers in the league
catches just one of ten targets in a game, your life as a starting
QB is essentially over. Trace McSorley will head back to the sideline
with Colt McCoy being cleared. In a normal week, especially a
championship week, McCoy would not warrant fantasy consideration.
But the Falcons present an awfully good matchup scenario, and
McCoy is an instant upgrade over McSorley, and makes WR’s DeAndre
Hopkins and Marquise Brown viable once gain.
Fade: N/A
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Allgeier has 55 carries over the last four games, averaging over
5.0 yards per tote. He’s clearly become the workhorse in
this backfield, which is a good place to be in HC Arthur Smith’s
“run it, don’t gun it” offense. He’s a
nice RB2 option this week. The only question is, why didn’t
this happen sooner?
London had seven catches a week ago, two for 20+ yards, and appears
to be developing a rapport with new QB Desmond Ridder. HC Arthur
Smith appeared to open up his offense a bit against the Ravens,
and the Cardinals secondary presents another opportunity for Ridder
to show what he can do. If any sort of air attack is in the game
plan this week, London is as good a candidate as any to find success.
He’s a low end WR3.
Patterson’s workload has steadily decreased in recent weeks,
and he seems to have yielded RB1 honors to Tyler Allgeier, leaving
Patterson as a TD-dependent low-end RB play. He had just 9 touches
last week (8 runs, 1 catch). Why the former WR is not more involved
in the passing attack is beyond me.
Even a perennial producer like Amari Cooper has struggled in
the Deshaun Watson-led Browns’ passing game, but if we’re looking
for someone who could be a valuable fantasy asset down the stretch
in this Cleveland offense, Cooper looks like a good bet to be
that. Cooper saw 10 targets this past week against the Saints,
which was higher than a 32-percent target share. It still only
resulted in a six-catch, 72-yard performance, but those are his
best numbers while playing with Watson. We shouldn’t expect a
huge performance from Cooper given the Browns’ offensive woes
as a whole and the Commanders doing a good job of containing most
opposing wide receivers this season, but there’s a decent chance
that he leads the team in targets yet again this week, so the
opportunities should be there.
He’s still a solid “no-brainer” in non-PPR formats, but Nick
Chubb has been quite disappointing down the stretch here in 2022.
The team’s move to Deshaun Watson at quarterback has actually
led to much worse passing success than they had under Jacoby Brissett
and while Chubb has still finished above 80 rushing yards in three
of his past four games, he hasn’t reached 100 yards in any of
those contests and he hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 12.
Add in the fact that he’s essentially a non-contributor in the
passing game and he’s now averaging less than 10 PPR points over
his past four games. It’s always going to be tough to bench a
guy like Chubb who regularly sees 20-carry games, but the Commanders'
defense has been excellent against opposing running backs this
season and, at least on paper, this doesn’t look like a great
opportunity for a huge game from Chubb.
Personal feelings aside, it’s an objective reality that
the Browns’ passing game has been horrendous since Deshaun
Watson started seeing the field. There are various reasons for
this that go beyond Watson’s individual performance, but
we can’t deny the reality that this team has become one
of the worst offenses in football that has basically made everyone
in the offense either a mediocre or flat-out bad fantasy producer.
We’ll hope to see better from them once Watson has a full
offseason with the team in 2023, but this is an offense to avoid
for now. That means that Watson himself, as well as wide receiver
Donovan Peoples-Jones and tight end David Njoku, should be on
fantasy benches if you have other similar or better options.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
The Washington offense continues to go through changes, but one
thing that has remained consistent is that rookie running back
Brian Robinson is dominating the touches. Like Nick Chubb on the
opposite sideline from him this week, Robinson has delivered quite
a few 20-carry games despite the fact that he’s doing almost
nothing as a receiver. This has meant some fluctuating fantasy
point totals as he’s rarely been able to score touchdowns.
This week, however, he faces a Cleveland defense that gives him
true week-winning potential. The Browns have given up the third-most
fantasy points to opposing running backs so far this season, including
15 rushing touchdowns. Robinson isn’t a locked-in RB1 but
he certainly has tremendous upside this week and fantasy managers
need to be aware of this when making the decision between him
and other normal borderline starters at the position.
Washington is making the move back to Carson Wentz this week,
which has been met with a collective “meh” from the fantasy community.
Wentz was originally the starter this season and what went largely
underreported was that he and wide receiver Terry McLaurin really
were not having an easy time creating a connection. When the team
moved to Taylor Heinecke, however, McLaurin’s numbers saw an immediate
spike and he’s been producing as a WR1 for much of the remainder
of the season. There’s an obvious concern here that McLaurin will
be back to being more of a WR2/WR3 now that Wentz is back behind
center, and that’s why he’s not a “favorite” here in Week 16.
He’ll likely need to be started for most teams as it’s hard to
find many other receivers throughout the league who’ve delivered
as consistently as McLaurin, but the upside certainly feels much
more capped this week than it had been through the middle of the
season.
Teammate Jahan Dotson is also an interesting story as he had
almost the opposite situation from McLaurin as it relates to quarterback
connection. He was very productive with Carson Wentz behind center
early in the year, but then he suffered an injury and returned
to Taylor Heinecke as his quarterback. He and Heinecke were not
connecting very well right away, then things really began to click
over the past three weeks, as he caught a touchdown in each of
those contests in addition to 15 catches on 24 targets. He’s producing
touchdowns at what we have to assume is a completely unsustainable
pace, but this quarterback move should not be a significant downgrade
for him. If you were starting him before, feel free to keep starting
him now.
With Brian Robinson nearly completely dominating the touches
out of the Washington backfield, it’s become almost impossible
to use Antonio Gibson for fantasy purposes, even in very deep
leagues. The on-paper matchup against a horrible Cleveland run
defense is admittedly tantalizing, but we can’t just assume
that Gibson is suddenly going to start seeing significant carries
again. We’ll have to hope that he finds a new home in 2023
because his run in Washington seems to be coming to an end.
It’s fair to say that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should both
be “no-brainers,” but with Tua Tagovailoa looking unlikely to
play after suffering another concussion, it’s reasonable that
fantasy managers are having questions about even studs like Hill
and Waddle. Rest assured, however, that Hill and Waddle remain
strong starts even with Teddy Bridgewater behind center. Both
players were highly successful back in Week 6, Bridgewater’s only
start this season, and while the Patriots' defense isn’t too bad,
they’re also not one that we should be avoiding. Both Hill and
Waddle are regularly seeing 20-plus-percent target shares, which
makes them a pretty safe bet to produce solid, if not excellent
fantasy results.
Jeff Wilson returned to the Dolphins lineup in Week 16 and while
Raheem Mostert had been leading the backfield even prior to Wilson’s
injury, things went back to being frustrating for fantasy managers
almost immediately. The two backs split both carries and snaps
almost evenly against the Packers, with Wilson actually getting
the only touchdown between the two. We now look forward to Week
17 where they’ll face a New England defense that has given
up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs
so far this season. The Dolphins' offense, especially without
Tua, isn’t likely to put a ton of points on the scoreboard
to begin with, and with a split backfield against a good defense,
this is a situation to avoid for fantasy purposes.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
We’ve seen Rhamondre Stevenson bounce back and forth between
being a “no-brainer” and a “favorite”
for much of the season, but with two absolute duds over his past
three games, it’s now becoming concerning that he might
not be either of those at the moment. His Week 14 and Week 16
stinkers likely led to quite a few fantasy managers being booted
from playoff contention, but there’s no denying that his
monster Week 15 performance against the Raiders also carried quite
a few teams. Stevenson has been a 15-to-20-touch player in most
games, so we shouldn’t be too turned away by recency bias.
The Dolphins are a top-10 matchup for opposing running backs and
in a game where they’re going to be without Tua, there’s
much less of a chance of the game getting out of hand on the scoreboard,
which should mean a much safer chance that Stevenson sees a heavy
workload. Load him up as an RB1 and hope that he returns to his
Week 15 form.
On the Fence: N/A
Fade: The Patriots’ Passing Game
We finally saw some competence from the New England passing game
this past week in their Week 16 matchup against Cincinnati, but
it’s hard to trust that to continue. Even with the Dolphins
being absolutely terrible against opposing quarterbacks, you’d
have to be in a really awful situation to be considering Mac Jones
at this point. Even wide receiver Jakobi Meyers, who finally got
back into fantasy relevance this past week, is not worth putting
into lineups at the moment. New England is likely going to continue
to rely heavily on running back Rhamondre Stevenson and the rest
of the offense is going to be about as conservative as any in
the league. That type of situation just is not conducive to fantasy
success, especially with the Dolphins being without quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa, thus further limiting the already low chances
of a shootout.
The matchup for Wilson isn’t as bad as it appears given
the QB change to White. Two of his best games have come with White
under center and he’s racked up 335 yards in the three games
White has started. Seattle’s low yardage total given up
to WRs can be attributed to their poor rushing defense which has
allowed the fourth-most yardage in the league. Facing a secondary
that’s had it’s share of problems tackling this season,
Wilson is an easy low-end WR1 in championship week.
White is an upgrade over Zach Wilson for the Jets and possibly
in fantasy too although he hasn’t thrown a TD in his two starts
after his 315-3-0 display in Week 12 against the Bears. Still,
he’s displayed a better ability to move the team than Zach and
shown a decent rapport with Garrett. This matchup against Seattle
isn’t as daunting as his last outing against Buffalo, but not
as juicy as his meetings against Chicago and Minnesota. Low-end
QB1 is likely his upside with a more likely scenario of a high-end
QB2 finish on the road in Seattle.
Since Week 12, running back Zonovan Knight has finished as the
RB24, RB11, RB13, RB62, RB62 in PPR leagues. If the Jets can control
the game and play in a positive game script, then Knight has a
decent chance at RB2 value. If you think they get behind, then
we’re likely to see more of Michael Carter and Knight could tank
your lineup. The Jets should keep this game close and at worst
remain in a neutral matchup and Seattle has given up 18 TDs to
the position, second only to Houston (21). There’s fantasy life
to Knight in Week 17.
The matchup looks decent for Conklin but it’s hard to get excited
about the TE20 on the season who’s averaging 3.33 catches and
.2 TDs per game. He played 71% of the snaps last week but C.J.
Uzomah (51%) is still in the mix. Conklin is uninspiring matchup-based
TE2.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Metcalf is going to get the bulk of the attention from a tough
Jets’ secondary especially with Tyler Lockett (finger) either
out or limited. Still, that’s not going to stop Geno from targeting
his best receiver who has a decided height and physical mismatch
over anybody trying to guard him. Metcalf has seen 9 targets in
each of his last three games and has four double-digit target
games on his resume this season. In addition to Locket, Marquise
Goodwin (shoulder, wrist) is less than 100% leaving only journeyman
Laquon Treadwell as the healthiest receiver outside of Metcalf.
Walker took a step back in his snap share last week (53%) likely
due to Seattle attempting to throw the ball more in the first
half against the Chiefs. That results in pass-down back DeeJay
Dallas seeing more the of the field. When Seattle shifted their
focus to running the ball in second half, Walker came to life
and ended up touching the ball 28 times. Given the pass-defense
displayed by the Jets recently, I’d expect a heavy dose of Walker
to start the game.
Geno’s solid season has taken a step back the last couple weeks,
finishing as the QB19 and QB16 against the Chiefs and 49ers. He
faces another tough test this week against the Jets-D and will
have limited or unhealthy options at receiver. The Jets have allowed
just 13 passing TDs to quarterbacks, tied for the fewest with
the Texans. You can deploy Geno as QB2 in Superflex leagues, but
I’d be leery of him producing QB1 numbers this week.
Fresh off surgery to repair a broken finger, it appears Locket
is going to give it a go this week despite his finger remaining
swollen. Seems like full use of your hands might be important
for an NFL WR, no? Facing a better-than-average Jets secondary,
I’ll pass on an injured Lockett this week if he suits up.
The 49ers tight end has averaged an insane 21.6 yards per catch
over his last two games. He’s scored four times in that
span and racked up 213 yards. His 8 touchdowns are now second
behind Kelce and his 713 yards on the season rank 5th at the position.
With Deebo out, Kittle has picked up the slack and the soft matchup
against a Raiders defense allowing the 10th most fantasy points
at the position is more fuel for the fire. Kittle owners heading
into their championship game have to feel good about their tight
end position.
With Kittle soaking up the meat of the fantasy points in the
passing game, there’s hasn’t been enough volume for
Aiyuk to vault into WR2 status. He has 11 targets in his last
two games and his 5-81-0 line last week was good enough for a
WR31 finish. He’s played at least 96% of the snaps each
of the last two weeks but with Purdy hovering in the mid-20’s
for pass attempts each week, Aiyuk has a limited ceiling that
can only be realized by finding the endzone.
TDP got some run last week, perhaps because the blowout, to the
tune of a 9-30-0 line with no targets in the passing game. Jordan
Mason was active but never saw an offensive snap. Was he being
held back because of a hamstring injury? Perhaps. The matchup
is good and this game has some SF blowout potential which could
work in the running backs favor, but unless we get a good handle
on which running back will be first off the bench behind McCaffery,
it’s best to avoid this situation.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Another team that has packed it in and looking towards next season
is the Raiders. Derek Carr has been benched and could be on his
way out of Las Vegas this off-season. As a result, the gameplan
will included a lot of Josh Jacobs, as it usually does, but the
matchup is the worst it could possibly be and it wouldn’t be surprising
to see a repeat of last week when the Raiders had a hard time
making first downs and Jacobs finished as the RB36 with a 15-44-0
line. Terrible weather was a factor last week. The unknown play
at quarterback could be the factor this week. It’s unlikely you
have a Jacobs replacement but expectations should be tempered.
Adams is probably closer to a favorite given his talent level
but we have to take some precaution given the QB change from Derek
Carr to Jarrett Stidham. Adams has also been a bust the last three
weeks with just 9 catches and 114 yards during that span with
zero TDs. Despite their solid defense, San Francisco has given
up some production to wide receivers this season, skewed partly
because a couple of rushing TDs by Mecole Hardman in Week 7. Still,
attacking San Francisco with wide receivers is the way but it
remains to be seen if Stidham is up to the task.
Waller hasn’t played more than 49% since coming back from
his hamstring injury. Perhaps this has been by design. He managed
to find the endzone back in Week 15, but he’s only seen
8 targets in two games. A 70% snap share would go along to improving
his fantasy outlook, but there’s been no indication that
will materialize in Week 17.
Over the last four weeks, Akers has fantasy finishes of RB8,
RB21, RB 21, and RB1. He’s become the dominant back on a
team that’s struggle to run the ball but has turned the
corner over the last quarter of the season. He’s seen a
good snap rate hovering around 75% the last couple weeks and has
been involved in the passing game over the last two weeks with
64 receiving yards during that span. This week he gets a defense
that can be exploited on the ground. The Chargers have given up
the second-most rushing yards (1865) to running back this season.
Akers sets up as an easy RB2 with RB1 upside this week.
After being shutout of the endzone for 14 weeks, Higbee has now
found paydirt three times in the last two weeks. His 9-94-2 outburst
last week against the Broncos was easily his best game in an otherwise
lackluster season. But given how bad the position has been fantasy,
the Rams tight end finds himself as the TE11 in PPR leagues. Obviously
expecting another ceiling game is wishful thinking but with a
group of below-average receivers not taking priority, Higbee could
be inline for an increased target share these last couple of weeks.
Jefferson is playing the most snaps by far of any Rams receiver
but the last time he saw more than five targets was back in Week
12. Since Baker took over the starting QB job, he’s had
attempts of 35, 21 and 28. The lack of volume is going to make
it tough for any non-alpha receiver to become fantasy relevant.
Through in a negative matchup against a decent Chargers secondary
and this is good spot to keep Jefferson and the rest of the Rams
receivers on your bench.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Allen has been on the most consistent fantasy wide receivers
over the last four weeks, especially in PPR leagues where he’s
racked up 37 catches and 14 targets in three of those games. While
Mike Williams has been more volatile, Keenan has been the rock
of the offense alongside Austin Ekeler. The Rams are not a pass
defense to fear as they’ve given up the 11th most fantasy points
to the position including seven 100-yard games, making Allen a
safe WR2 with WR1 upside.
Speaking of Williams, his WR4 finish back in Week 14 was followed
up by WR40 and WR34 finishes. Such is the volatility of a deep
threat receiver. All of the same matchup particulars apply and
it wouldn’t surprising to see Williams come up with a big
game here, but the Chargers have been employing the short-passing
game lately, limiting the opportunities for big plays. A couple
more downfield shots and Williams is likely to be in the low-end
WR1 conversation. If Herbert sticks with the dink and dunk to
Allen and Ekeler then WR3 is the more likely scenario for Big
Mike in Week 17.
Yes, Cousins is rolling, averaging 395 yards and 3 TDs per game
over his last three. Yes, he played well against Green Bay in
Week 1 with 277 yards and 2 TDs. There are a couple of concerns,
however. First, the Packers rank third in the NFL in pass defense
at just 192.4 yards per game. Second, and perhaps more importantly,
Cousins hasn’t played outdoors since Week 10. Will Minnesota’s
offense still rely on the pass in wintry Lambeau Field. The jury
is out. That makes Cousins a risk/reward QB1.
Those concerns about Cousins spill over to his receivers, and
at this point it’s clear that Hockenson is functioning as
the No. 2 target behind Jefferson. Thielen had just one catch
against the Giants for six yards, and his 3-36-0 line versus Green
Bay back in the opener didn’t move the needle, either. At
best, you could consider plugging the veteran into your lineup
as a flex or low-end WR3, but even then, you’re probably
hoping for a touchdown to get Thielen to respectable value.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Update: Christian
Watson is listed as Questionable.
With Jones (ankle) still dealing with an ankle issue, Dillon
has done much of the heavy lifting in recent weeks. Over the last
four games, the bruising back has compiled 326 total yards and
five touchdowns with at least one TD in each of those games. He
was Green Bay’s most effective offensive player in the Week
1 meeting between these two teams, posting 91 yards and a score.
Use him as an RB3 with upside.
It’s easy to see why Rodgers and Lazard would be enticing
selections. No one in the NFL has allowed more passing yards than
Minnesota at 4,222 (281.5/game), and over their last seven contests
the Vikings are giving up 30.1 points per game. The matchup is
ripe for exploitation. Working against it is history. Rodgers
hasn’t had a 300-yard game this season, and he hasn’t
thrown for multiple TDs since Nov. 27. Meanwhile, Lazard hasn’t
scored or topped 70 yards since Week 9. Rodgers would be a risky
choice as a low-end QB1 that could easily remain on your bench
if you had a quality alternative. As for Lazard, he’d be
a fringe WR3 if Watson sits and a flex if the rookie plays.
The last time these two clubs locked up, the Ravens stymied Pittsburgh’s
running game, giving up just 65 yards on 20 carries. The duo of
Johnson (6-82-0) and Pickens (3-78-0) posted decent numbers, however,
which creates hope for fantasy owners that they’ll deliver some
Week 17 value. Of course, it was Mitch Trubisky that played nearly
all that matchup after Kenny Pickett was concussed, so you can’t
read too much into it. Still, both wideouts could be rolled out
as low-end WR3s or flex options.
Fade: N/A
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Despite having no passing game to speak of against the Falcons,
Baltimore still found plenty of success on the ground with 184
yards on 34 carries. Dobbins accounted for 12 carries and 59 yards,
which is respectable but well off what he did against Pittsburgh
back in Week 14 when he rattled off 120 yards and a TD on 15 rushes.
The Ohio State product has been dynamic since returning from IR,
and he’ll be counted on to have a big day against the Steelers
this Sunday. Plug him in as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3.
Edwards led the rushing attack in Week 16, gaining 99 yards on
11 carries. Despite averaging an impressive 7.1 yards per carry
over the last three games, Edwards isn’t getting as much
work in even with a similar number of snaps to Dobbins. He ran
the ball 13 times for 66 yards against Pittsburgh, and it’d
be tough to pencil him in for much more than that in the rematch.
Consider Edwards a flex with a little upside.
If Jackson (knee) is deemed unable to play, Huntley will make
another start. He posted some good numbers when pressed into action
last season. That hasn’t been the case in 2022, however,
with Huntley logging two total TDs (one passing, one rushing)
in his four appearances. He did little before being knocked from
the previous game against the Steelers with a concussion and would
hold no appeal if he makes the start here.
While it hasn’t been the breakout season some envisioned,
Knox has been trending in a positive direction recently, scoring
touchdowns in each of his last three games -- making him the recipient
of three of the team’s seven TD passes in that time. He’s
also been targeted 20 times during that stretch, the highest three-game
total of the season. Pencil him in as a midrange TE1.
With unfavorable weather conditions in Chicago, Davis led the
Bills in receiving last Saturday, catching three passes for 45
yards and a TD on a team-high six targets. We all know what Davis
is capable of, but his production has largely vacillated between
middling and disappointing for much of 2022. It’s easy to
envision it going either way on Monday night after the Pats had
two receivers with 80-plus yards and a score in Week 16 against
the Bengals. Davis is a risk/reward WR3 here.
Buffalo rode the combination of Devin Singletary (12-106-1) and
Cook (11-99-1) to victory against the Bears. Don’t expect a repeat
performance. Chicago ranks 30th in the NFL against the run, whereas
Cincy sits seventh at 106.4 yards per game. Of the two, Singletary
is more likely to deliver RB3-type value. Cook has seen his usage
ebb and flow throughout his rookie campaign with higher usage
against lesser teams. In a big game against a top-tier opponent,
Cook may not see enough action to even be playable.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
It took an injury to Chase to get Irwin on the field, but the
Stanford product showed enough that he continues to get work.
He’s also improbably emerged as a red-zone threat, catching
two touchdown passes a week ago to give him four over the last
six games. The other numbers aren’t there, yet, having never
posted more than three receptions in a game or topped 60 yards,
but the TDs provide Irwin with some lottery-ticket appeal for
desperate owners.
Boyd caught just three passes for 21 yards against New England
in Week 16, and he has now finished with fewer than 50 yards receiving
in seven of his last eight games with only a single touchdown
in that time. The veteran basically split snaps with Irwin last
Saturday and now feels like someone that should be parked on your
bench.
