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Favorites & Fades

Week 17

By: Mike Krueger | Ken Ilchuk | Nick Caron | HC Green
Updated: 12/31/22



Sunday Early:

NO @ PHI | CHI @ DET | CAR @ TB | DEN @ KC


Sunday Late:

NYJ @ SEA | SF @ LV | LAR @ LAC | MIN @ GB




- Green highlight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
- Lines and totals updated Sunday morning

Cowboys @ Titans - (Ilchuk)
Line: DAL -13.5
Total: 40.5

TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4

No Brainers: QB Dak Prescott, WR CeeDee Lamb

Favorite: WR Michael Gallup

Thereís been a slight uptick in production recently for Gallup, who has 15 catches for 101 yards and three touchdowns in the last four games. This week he faces a Titans defense that has been scorched in the passing game, allowing over 4,100 passing yards on the season and 26 TDs through the air, second-most in the NFL. With receiving back Tony Pollard likely out this week, Gallup is second in line for targets behind CeeDee Lamb against a Tennessee secondary that is allowing an NFL-high 26.7 fantasy points per game to WRís.

On the Fence: TE Dalton Schultz

Since the end of November, Schultz has just one game with at least four catches, one game of at least 50 yards, and hasnít seen the end zone in that entire stretch. Thatís concerning for one of the more prolific TEís in the game. But this week, he gets a favorable (very favorable) matchup against the Titans and could be in line for more work with RB Tony Pollard likely on the sidelines.

Update: Tony Pollard is expected to be inactive.

Fade: RB Tony Pollard (thigh)

Pollard has been the Cowboysí best running back dating back to last season. But with Dallasí postseason status essentially determined, and Pollard nursing a thigh injury, he isnít likely to play this week, and even if he does, I would expect his contributions to be limited. Heís labeled a gametime decision. Malik Davis would see increased opportunities as Zeke's backup if Pollard sits.

DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28

No Brainers: None

Favorite: RB Hassan Haskins

Derrick Henry is Doubtful and looks to be out this week, so Haskins steps into the starting role for a team that by all appearances last week, canít throw the ball. This is a negative matchup but heíll get 20+ carries in this game and should post RB2 numbers at minimum.

On the Fence: TE Austin Hooper

Thereís not much to look at in this passing game, but from where Iím sitting, there isnít a much more reliable target for QB Malik Willis than Hooper. While his opportunities have been limited, he has averaged 10.0 yards per catch or more in four of the last five contests. Willis has started three games for the Titans and has yet to top 100 yards passing in those games, so keep your expectations in check.

Fade: RB Derrick Henry

The Week 18 game against Jacksonville is critical to the Titans playoff hopes. Not so much in Week 17, so with Henry nursing a bad hip, he will likely sit this one out and make sure he’s healthy for the finale.

Prediction: Cowboys 36, Titans 10 ^ Top

Saints @ Eagles - (Caron)
Line: PHI -6.0
Total: 41.5

PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25

Update: Alvin Kamara is expected to play.

No Brainers: RB Alvin Kamara

Favorite: TE Taysom Hill

We likely wonít know the status of running back Alvin Kamara (quad, personal) until the weekend and potentially not until an hour before game time. That makes things extremely difficult to predict for fantasy, as Kamaraís involvement in the offense is obviously an important factor. If we assume that Kamara plays then he might be the only starter in the offense who fantasy managers should have much interest in this weekend in a tough matchup against a good Philadelphia defense. If he does sit, however, the Saints offense will likely need to make significant changes, including a split backfield between veterans David Johnson and Eno Benjamin. Thatís not really exciting for fantasy, but what could become interesting is how the Saints choose to deploy Taysom Hill. Hill has been relevant in a number of weeks due to the fact that heís tight end eligible on most platforms. He could see increased usage if Kamara is out, with the Saints hoping to get some explosive plays out of him if the rest of the offense struggles, which seems fairly likely. Even if he only carries the ball a handful of times and attempts a pass or two, that could make him a TE1 for the week. His upside is much higher than that, as well.

On the Fence: WR Chris Olave

Rookie wide receiver Chris Olave missed the first game of his professional career this past week and the impact was immediately noticeable in the Saints offense. Andy Dalton attempted just 15 passes on the day and although much of that was due to the weather, it was also apparent that the team was just not confident airing it out without their top wide receiver. The rookie continues to dominate the looks in the passing game and that could be even more true this week as the Saints could be without Alvin Kamara and thus may end up leaning on their passing game more than usual. Olave has been a strong WR2 for most of the season and while he faces a tough Philadelphia defense, heís a good bet to have another solid fantasy day.

Fade: WR Rashid Shaheed

While Chris Olave still looks like a good bet to be a fantasy WR2 this week, the same canít really be said for fellow wide receiver Rashid Shaheed. Shaheed has actually been pretty productive over the past few weeks, and he saw a season-high 33 percent target share in Week 16, but he has not yet seen more than five targets in any game this season. That five-target game this past week came in a contest where the Saints were without Olave, so itís hard to really think that will continue as we now expect Olave to be back in this one. Heís not completely worthless, but youíd have to be in a very deep league to consider Shaheed this week.

NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32

No Brainers: WR A.J. Brown, WR DeVonta Smith

Favorite: RB Miles Sanders

Back-to-back poor fantasy performances from Miles Sanders have contributed to a lot of fantasy managers being knocked out of their playoffs. But for those who have been able to battle through it, it might be wise to stay the course with Sanders here in Week 17. Despite his poor efficiency, Sanders has remained extremely involved in the Eagles' offense, including a 22-touch day in the loss to the Cowboys in Week 16. Itís looking increasingly likely that Jalen Hurts will be back on the field this week which would help the offense as a whole and increase Sandersí chances for a touchdown, but either way, heís a good bet to have 15 or more touches and thatís very difficult to find at this point in the season with all the injuries at the position. The Saints gave up 100 rushing yards this past week to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and the previous game saw them get absolutely torched by Atlantaís Tyler Allgeier. This is an exploitable defense and one that Sanders could really crush if given the opportunity.

Update: Jalen Hurts is Doubtful.

On the Fence: QB Jalen Hurts, QB Gardner Minshew

We donít really know whatís going to happen at quarterback for the Eagles this week, but reports seem to indicate that thereís a good chance that Jalen Hurts will be back. If he is, we should assume that heís healthy enough to be a fantasy starter again, although he could find himself resting on the bench if the score gets too far out of range in either teamís direction, which would definitely limit his upside. If he doesnít play, though, Gardner Minshew looks like a decent start again. The Saints have been pretty good against opposing quarterbacks as of late, but their schedule has also seen them face one of the easiest stretches of QBs imaginable. Minshew isnít some stud, but he put up nice numbers against the Cowboys and this group of pass-catchers is by far the best heís ever had in his career. Look for him to toss another couple of touchdown passes and be a solid low-end QB1 if he gets the start.

Fade: TE Dallas Goedert

Itís certainly good that the Eagles got tight end Dallas Goedert back as they look forward to the playoffs, but the tight end wasnít nearly as involved in the offense as we would have expected him to be heading into the game. Goedert dominated the snaps at tight end, which is a positive note, but he saw just three targets on Minshewís 40 attempts against the Cowboys. Sure, he caught all three of them for 67 yards so it wasnít a complete disaster or anything, but his low overall usage in a game that his team lost would seem to indicate that he may not be back to being fully healthy quite yet and/or he just doesnít have a great connection with Minshew quite yet. He does play tight end so itís tough to strong push for him to be benched, but heís not as strong of a TE1 as usual, especially as he faces a New Orleans defense that has given up the leagueís fewest fantasy points to the position so far this season.

Prediction: Eagles 24, Saints 17 ^ Top

Bears @ Lions - (Green)
Line: DET -6.0
Total: 52.5

DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6

No Brainers: QB Justin Fields, RB David Montgomery

Favorite: RB Khalil Herbert

Herbert returned from IR in Week 16, playing 26 snaps to Montgomeryís 42. He posted just three yards on eight combined touches as Buffalo locked down the Chicago running game. The Lions, meanwhile, were busy getting absolutely torched by the Panthers, which ran for 320 yards and three touchdowns. Expect the Bears to lean on the trio of Fields, Montgomery, and Herbert here as they did back in Week 10 when Chicago posted 258 yards and 2 TDs. Fifty-seven of those went to Herbert, who is a flex play with solid upside in this weekendís rematch.

On the Fence: TE Cole Kmet

With the Bears passing for just 129 yards versus the Bills, Kmet led the club in both catches (5) and targets (6) but gained only 27 yards. He was far more effective in the initial meeting between these two clubs, posting 74 yards and a pair of touchdowns on four receptions in Week 10. The Bearsí passing game is impossible to trust, hence the ďon the fenceĒ designation, but Kmet is capable of returning top-10 TE value.

Fade: N/A

CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31

No Brainers: RB DíAndre Swift, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

Favorite: QB Jared Goff

With the Lions operating out of a deep hole in the second half against Carolina, Goff put up 355 yards and 3 TDs through the air -- it was by far his best road performance of the season as he entered play having thrown just three touchdowns in six previous games away from Ford Field. Back in the cozy dome, Goff should have plenty of chances to air it out against the Bears, which havenít held anyone under 25 points since Oct. 24. There is some level of risk given how leaky Chicagoís run defense is, but the Lions tend to be pretty balanced, which makes Goff a reasonable choice as a QB1.

On the Fence: WR D.J. Chark/RB Jamaal Williams (leg)

Only St. Brown can truly be trusted week in, and week out in Detroitís passing game. That said, Chark has surpassed 90 yards receiving in three of his last four outings while providing a deep presence that complements the short/intermediate work done by ASB. Williams, meanwhile, has tailed off considerably over the last month, gaining less than 40 yards in each game and scoring just one of his 14 TDs. He also picked up a leg injury, so weíll see what level of involvement he has in Week 17. Both players can be plugged in as flex options with upside, but thereís also some notable downside.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Lions 34, Bears 26 ^ Top

Panthers @ Buccaneers - (Ilchuk)
Line: TB -3.5
Total: 40.5

TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11

No Brainers: None

Favorite: WR D.J. Moore

In the four games since Sam Darnoldís return, Moore has become a viable fantasy receiver, posting three games of at least 70 yards (including a 100-yard effort), three TDís, and is averaging over 15 yards per catch. Darnold doesnít get to throw it often (averaging 23 attempts in his last three games), but when he does, heís usually looking for Moore, and this week he has a chance to make some noise against a banged-up Tampa secondary.

On the Fence: RB DíOnta Foreman

Foreman has posted five 100-yard efforts in his last nine games, and he certainly blew the doors off the Lions defense last week with 165 ground yards. Carolina has committed itself to the run game in recent weeks, but Tampaís defense is fairly stout against the run (only 6 rush TDs allowed), and after watching last weekís film, I expect theyíll be waiting for Foreman. He will get carries, but I suspect heíll have a hard time finding 100 yards in this one.

Fade: QB Sam Darnold

Darnold has been efficient in his four-game return to the lineup, completing 61% of his passes with four TD and no interceptions, and heís averaging over 10.0 yards per attempt over the last two games. But the volume just isnít there as heís yet to attempt 25 passes in any contest.

CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19

No Brainers: RB Leonard Fournette

Favorite: WR Chris Godwin

These Buccaneers still donít look like themselves on offense, but there have been signs of life. Godwinís double-digit targets in three of the last five games is one of them. QB Tom Brady is about ball-control in the passing game, and that puts Godwin squarely in the crosshairs this week. I wouldnít be surprised to se a 100-yard outing from him in a game that will play a deciding factor in the NFC South race.

On the Fence: QB Tom Brady

The good news is Brady has at least 40 attempts in each of the last five games, and his yardage totals are up the last two weeks. He also has 9 TDís over the last month. Unfortunately, he also has seven interceptions, and his yards per attempt is below 6.0 over the last five games.

Fade: RB Rachaad White

White had been a growing force in the run game and appeared to have taken over as the RB1 in Tampa. Then, last week, he became an afterthought playing just 36% of the snaps while Fournette played 61%. If Leonard Fournette is back in the picture in a significant way, as he was last week, Whiteís production is going to take a hit.

Prediction: Panthers 20, Buccaneers 19 ^ Top

Broncos @ Chiefs - (Krueger)
Line: KC -12.0
Total: 44.5

KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14

No Brainers: N/A

Favorite: WR Jerry Jeudy

With Sutton out, Jeudy has passed the eye-test, showing good burst and quickness on the field and has racked up 27 targets in the last three weeks including 10 last week with Sutton back in the lineup. We know the Broncos team environment is ugly. Russell Wilson has been down right bad and not a drive goes by without a receiver displaying frustration at the QBís decision-making. This is a negative game-script play, in a similar manner to last week, when Jeudy totaled six catches for 117 yards and the Chiefs defense has given up 19 TDs on the season to wide receivers, 2nd-most in the league.

On the Fence: QB Russell Wilson

Wilsonís best fantasy game of the season came against this same bunch back in Week 13 when he finished with a 247-3-1 line and also ran for 57 yards. Wilson was also concussed in this game so his stat line couldíve been bigger. His brutal play on the season is an obvious concern, but this game sets up in his favor, likely playing from behind much of the day. KCís 31 passing TDs allowed is by far the most of any defense. Most people in their fantasy championships have legitimate QB1 options, but if youíre missing Jalen Hurts or just lost Tua, Wilson might be a risky option.

Update: Greg Dulcich has been placed on IR.

Fade: TE Greg Dulcich (hamstring)

We may see Dulcich on the inactive list this week as heís missed practice time after injuring his hamstring late last week against the Rams. Even if he does suit up, Iíd be inclined to look for other options given Courtland Sutton is back in the mix and the Broncos propensity for using multiple tight ends. Eric Saubert and Eric Tomlinson could easily be used more if the rookie is less than 100%.

DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7

No Brainers: QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce

Favorite: RB Jerick McKinnon

McKinnonís hot streak over the last four weeks including a 7-112-2 game through the air against these same Broncos. While we canít expect a repeat performance, thereís certainly enough juice here for a solid game against a team that just fired their head coach and has thrown in the towel on the season. Itís difficult to project Isiah Pacheco and McKinnon on a week-to-week basis. While the two have somewhat defined roles, there also is a bit of a hot-hand aspect that is extremely variable, which gives fantasy owners and prognosticators fits. Still, the Chiefs most trusted running back has scored in four straight games and should be good for at least 15 touches here with no weather concerns making him a solid RB2.

Update: Mecole Hardman is Out.

On the Fence: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster

JuJu has been the Chiefs most reliable fantasy wide receiver this season, leading the group in targets (96), receptions (74) and yards (877). He does have a couple 100-yard games under his belt and has seen double-digit targets in two out of his last three games. However, the spread the ball around nature of this offense makes him a fragile WR2 and the group as a whole is getting healthier. Kadarius Toney saw an increased snap share last week and Mecole Hardman is expected back after a long layoff with an abdominal injury. The good news is that JuJu put up 9-74-1 on the Broncos just three weeks ago. The bad news is that Denver is still the toughest matchup for fantasy wide receivers. Iíd still lean towards a low-end WR2 value on JuJu as we could see some softening on the Broncos defense with just two games to go.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Broncos 17 ^ Top

Colts @ Giants - (Caron)
Line: NYG -5.5
Total: 38.5

NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8

No Brainers: N/A

Favorite: WR Michael Pittman Jr.

The chances of Pittman finishing as a WR1 for fantasy seem to have completely dissipated. With that said, Pittman remains a fairly solid mid-to-low-end WR2 for the season and he now heads into a matchup against a Giants defense that has given up 13 or more fantasy points to eight different wide receivers over their past four games, including a whopping 12-catch game to Justin Jefferson this past week. We shouldnít expect that kind of explosive output from Pittman with the team starting Nick Foles at quarterback, but heís likely to see between seven to 10 targets depending on the game situation, so that should be enough to make him at least a WR3, with solid WR2 upside.

On the Fence: RB Zack Moss

With 36 carries and a near-70-percent snap share over his two starts since Jonathan Taylor went down, Zack Moss has been given the opportunity to produce for fantasy managers, he just hasnít been efficient enough to actually do so. Heís averaging just over four yards per carry in those two starts which is fine but not spectacular and unfortunately, heís playing on a team that just is not moving the ball effectively through the air. Thatís meant very few red zone opportunities and without much passing game usefulness, Moss remains a mediocre option. He could still have some value, especially in non-PPR leagues, but heís a pretty low upside choice here in Week 17.

Fade: QB Nick Foles

Super Bowl ring aside, Foles has never been much of a fantasy quarterback. The Coltsí newest starter in their carousel of mediocrity, Foles threw for just 143 yards, no touchdowns, and three interceptions in his Week 16 opportunity. The Giants are a middle-of-the-pack matchup, but fantasy managers should be looking pretty much anywhere else for quarterback play this week.

IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23

No Brainers: RB Saquon Barkley

Favorite: QB Daniel Jones

Jones is coming off of just his second 300-yard passing game of the season and he now heads into a matchup against a Colts team that has gone into tank mode. They were able to hold Justin Herbert in check this past week, but donít look too much into that as they still lost by multiple scores and the Chargers really didnít need to implement their vertical passing game. The Giants were completely lit up in their previous two games as Dak Prescott threw for three touchdowns against them and Kirk Cousins added four more the following week. Jones isnít likely to throw for a bunch of touchdowns, but he should deliver at least one with the possibility of a couple while adding a few more points with his legs. Jones has been inconsistent at best this season so itís understandable if youíre not willing to trust him with your fantasy championship on the line, but with so many weird situations happening throughout the league, Jones makes for an interesting one-week fill-in for QB-needy teams.

On the Fence: WR Isaiah Hodgins, WR Richie James

Coinciding with Daniel Jonesí big Week 16 performance, we saw some nice performances from some unlikely receivers as both Richie James and Isaiah Hodgins saw double-digit targets in the Giantsí loss to the Vikings. James has now seen 25 targets over his past three games, resulting in two very usable fantasy performances. Hodgins, meanwhile, has been seeing his usage increase as of late, including playing nearly every snap for the Giants this past week. Heís caught at least four passes in now four straight contests, including a touchdown in three of those four games. It might be a bit fluky, but fantasy managers who are in desperate situations could do worse than these two New York wideouts.

Fade: WR Darius Slayton

While he remains the top Giants wide receiver from a snaps perspective, fantasy managers rostering Slayton have not been rewarded with much production on the stat sheet. Heís caught just 11 passes on 16 targets over his past three games and he hasnít scored a touchdown since Week 10. Heís fallen behind both James and Hodgins from a fantasy perspective and the Giants' offense just isnít good enough to support three fantasy-relevant receivers.

Prediction: Giants 20, Colts 16 ^ Top

Jaguars @ Texans - (Ilchuk)
Line: JAX -3.0
Total: 43.5

HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15

No Brainers: QB Trevor Lawrence, T Evan Engram

Favorite: RB Travis Etienne

Itís hard to not pick Etienne here. Seemingly over his foot issues, he has 186 rushing yards over the last two games and has taken over a full RB1 load again, and this week he faces the worst run defense in the league in the Texans. HC Doug Pederson will be happy to grind this one out in preparation of their Week 18 battle for the AFC South crown against Tennessee.

On the Fence: WR Christian Kirk

In recent weeks, Zay Jones has taken over as the hot receiver in Jacksonville, though Kirk has been the season-long WR1. This week, he faces a Texans defense that does a pretty good job of limiting opponents in the passing game, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to the position. So, while he may be on your roster, Iím not sure this is the week he gets back on track.

Fade: WR Marvin Jones

With Christin Kirk ensconced as the WR1 since the beginning of the season, and Zay Jones, Evan Engram, and even Travis Etienne all emerging in the passing attack, thereís little room for the veteran Jones to provide significant fantasy value during championship week.

JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9

No Brainers: None

Favorite: N/A

On the Fence: WR Brandin Cooks

Cooks had nine targets, his most since Week 2, and a touchdown in Week 16. But he doesnít have a 100-yard game on his resume this season and hasnít even approached his season high 82 yards in Week 1. Someone has to catch the ball in this offense. Cooks should at least get some opportunities to do so, but heís no more than a WR3/Flex play in the final game of your season.

Fade: QB Davis Mills

I thought early in the season that Mills was trending in the right direction. But as things have gone off the rails in Houston, and Jeff Driskel has been added to the QB mix, he has clearly lost confidence and his solid grip on the starting job. Driskel is getting four to six passing attempts and a few rushing attempts per game which is more than enough to kill whatever value Mills has.

Prediction: Jaguars 24, Texans 13 ^ Top

Cardinals @ Falcons - (Ilchuk)
Line: ATL -6.0
Total: 41.5

Update: David Blough will start at quarterback.

ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5

No Brainers: RB James Conner

Favorite: WR Marquise Brown

Brownís targets and catches have taken a hit since returning from his foot injury. Part of that is understandable as DeAndre Hopkins (knee) was out the first six weeks, leaving Browns as the main attraction in the passing game. Since returning to the field in Week 12, Brownís efficiency has been lacking but he did turn three catches into 57 yards in limited action in Week 16. Facing a struggling Atlanta secondary, with QB Colt McCoy back in the fray, Brown could be a nice flex option in your championship game.

On the Fence: QB Colt McCoy

McCoy has cleared concussion protocol and could be back in the starting lineup. When one of the best receivers in the league catches just one of ten targets in a game, your life as a starting QB is essentially over. Trace McSorley will head back to the sideline with Colt McCoy being cleared. In a normal week, especially a championship week, McCoy would not warrant fantasy consideration. But the Falcons present an awfully good matchup scenario, and McCoy is an instant upgrade over McSorley, and makes WRís DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown viable once gain.

Fade: N/A

ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1

No Brainers: None

Favorite: RB Tyler Allgeier

Allgeier has 55 carries over the last four games, averaging over 5.0 yards per tote. Heís clearly become the workhorse in this backfield, which is a good place to be in HC Arthur Smithís ďrun it, donít gun itĒ offense. Heís a nice RB2 option this week. The only question is, why didnít this happen sooner?

On the Fence: WR Drake London

London had seven catches a week ago, two for 20+ yards, and appears to be developing a rapport with new QB Desmond Ridder. HC Arthur Smith appeared to open up his offense a bit against the Ravens, and the Cardinals secondary presents another opportunity for Ridder to show what he can do. If any sort of air attack is in the game plan this week, London is as good a candidate as any to find success. Heís a low end WR3.

Fade: RB Cordarrelle Patterson

Pattersonís workload has steadily decreased in recent weeks, and he seems to have yielded RB1 honors to Tyler Allgeier, leaving Patterson as a TD-dependent low-end RB play. He had just 9 touches last week (8 runs, 1 catch). Why the former WR is not more involved in the passing attack is beyond me.

Prediction: Cardinals 14, Falcons 10 ^ Top

Browns @ Commanders - (Caron)
Line: WAS -2.5
Total: 40.5

WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27

No Brainers: N/A

Favorite: WR Amari Cooper

Even a perennial producer like Amari Cooper has struggled in the Deshaun Watson-led Brownsí passing game, but if weíre looking for someone who could be a valuable fantasy asset down the stretch in this Cleveland offense, Cooper looks like a good bet to be that. Cooper saw 10 targets this past week against the Saints, which was higher than a 32-percent target share. It still only resulted in a six-catch, 72-yard performance, but those are his best numbers while playing with Watson. We shouldnít expect a huge performance from Cooper given the Brownsí offensive woes as a whole and the Commanders doing a good job of containing most opposing wide receivers this season, but thereís a decent chance that he leads the team in targets yet again this week, so the opportunities should be there.

On the Fence: RB Nick Chubb

Heís still a solid ďno-brainerĒ in non-PPR formats, but Nick Chubb has been quite disappointing down the stretch here in 2022. The teamís move to Deshaun Watson at quarterback has actually led to much worse passing success than they had under Jacoby Brissett and while Chubb has still finished above 80 rushing yards in three of his past four games, he hasnít reached 100 yards in any of those contests and he hasnít scored a touchdown since Week 12. Add in the fact that heís essentially a non-contributor in the passing game and heís now averaging less than 10 PPR points over his past four games. Itís always going to be tough to bench a guy like Chubb who regularly sees 20-carry games, but the Commanders' defense has been excellent against opposing running backs this season and, at least on paper, this doesnít look like a great opportunity for a huge game from Chubb.

Fade: QB Deshaun Watson, WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, TE David Njoku

Personal feelings aside, itís an objective reality that the Brownsí passing game has been horrendous since Deshaun Watson started seeing the field. There are various reasons for this that go beyond Watsonís individual performance, but we canít deny the reality that this team has become one of the worst offenses in football that has basically made everyone in the offense either a mediocre or flat-out bad fantasy producer. Weíll hope to see better from them once Watson has a full offseason with the team in 2023, but this is an offense to avoid for now. That means that Watson himself, as well as wide receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones and tight end David Njoku, should be on fantasy benches if you have other similar or better options.

CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26

No Brainers: N/A

Favorite: RB Brian Robinson Jr.

The Washington offense continues to go through changes, but one thing that has remained consistent is that rookie running back Brian Robinson is dominating the touches. Like Nick Chubb on the opposite sideline from him this week, Robinson has delivered quite a few 20-carry games despite the fact that heís doing almost nothing as a receiver. This has meant some fluctuating fantasy point totals as heís rarely been able to score touchdowns. This week, however, he faces a Cleveland defense that gives him true week-winning potential. The Browns have given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs so far this season, including 15 rushing touchdowns. Robinson isnít a locked-in RB1 but he certainly has tremendous upside this week and fantasy managers need to be aware of this when making the decision between him and other normal borderline starters at the position.

On the Fence: WR Terry McLaurin, WR Jahan Dotson

Washington is making the move back to Carson Wentz this week, which has been met with a collective ďmehĒ from the fantasy community. Wentz was originally the starter this season and what went largely underreported was that he and wide receiver Terry McLaurin really were not having an easy time creating a connection. When the team moved to Taylor Heinecke, however, McLaurinís numbers saw an immediate spike and heís been producing as a WR1 for much of the remainder of the season. Thereís an obvious concern here that McLaurin will be back to being more of a WR2/WR3 now that Wentz is back behind center, and thatís why heís not a ďfavoriteĒ here in Week 16. Heíll likely need to be started for most teams as itís hard to find many other receivers throughout the league whoíve delivered as consistently as McLaurin, but the upside certainly feels much more capped this week than it had been through the middle of the season.

Teammate Jahan Dotson is also an interesting story as he had almost the opposite situation from McLaurin as it relates to quarterback connection. He was very productive with Carson Wentz behind center early in the year, but then he suffered an injury and returned to Taylor Heinecke as his quarterback. He and Heinecke were not connecting very well right away, then things really began to click over the past three weeks, as he caught a touchdown in each of those contests in addition to 15 catches on 24 targets. Heís producing touchdowns at what we have to assume is a completely unsustainable pace, but this quarterback move should not be a significant downgrade for him. If you were starting him before, feel free to keep starting him now.

Update: Antonio Gibson is Out.

Fade: RB Antonio Gibson

With Brian Robinson nearly completely dominating the touches out of the Washington backfield, itís become almost impossible to use Antonio Gibson for fantasy purposes, even in very deep leagues. The on-paper matchup against a horrible Cleveland run defense is admittedly tantalizing, but we canít just assume that Gibson is suddenly going to start seeing significant carries again. Weíll have to hope that he finds a new home in 2023 because his run in Washington seems to be coming to an end.

Prediction: Commanders 20, Browns 17 ^ Top

Dolphins @ Patriots - (Caron)
Line: NE -2.5
Total: 40.5

NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12

No Brainers: N/A

Favorite: WR Tyreek Hill, WR Jaylen Waddle

Itís fair to say that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should both be ďno-brainers,Ē but with Tua Tagovailoa looking unlikely to play after suffering another concussion, itís reasonable that fantasy managers are having questions about even studs like Hill and Waddle. Rest assured, however, that Hill and Waddle remain strong starts even with Teddy Bridgewater behind center. Both players were highly successful back in Week 6, Bridgewaterís only start this season, and while the Patriots' defense isnít too bad, theyíre also not one that we should be avoiding. Both Hill and Waddle are regularly seeing 20-plus-percent target shares, which makes them a pretty safe bet to produce solid, if not excellent fantasy results.

On the Fence: N/A

Fade: RB Raheem Mostert, RB Jeff Wilson

Jeff Wilson returned to the Dolphins lineup in Week 16 and while Raheem Mostert had been leading the backfield even prior to Wilsonís injury, things went back to being frustrating for fantasy managers almost immediately. The two backs split both carries and snaps almost evenly against the Packers, with Wilson actually getting the only touchdown between the two. We now look forward to Week 17 where theyíll face a New England defense that has given up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs so far this season. The Dolphins' offense, especially without Tua, isnít likely to put a ton of points on the scoreboard to begin with, and with a split backfield against a good defense, this is a situation to avoid for fantasy purposes.

MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3

No Brainers: N/A

Update: Damien Harris will play.

Favorite: RB Rhamondre Stevenson

Weíve seen Rhamondre Stevenson bounce back and forth between being a ďno-brainerĒ and a ďfavoriteĒ for much of the season, but with two absolute duds over his past three games, itís now becoming concerning that he might not be either of those at the moment. His Week 14 and Week 16 stinkers likely led to quite a few fantasy managers being booted from playoff contention, but thereís no denying that his monster Week 15 performance against the Raiders also carried quite a few teams. Stevenson has been a 15-to-20-touch player in most games, so we shouldnít be too turned away by recency bias. The Dolphins are a top-10 matchup for opposing running backs and in a game where theyíre going to be without Tua, thereís much less of a chance of the game getting out of hand on the scoreboard, which should mean a much safer chance that Stevenson sees a heavy workload. Load him up as an RB1 and hope that he returns to his Week 15 form.

On the Fence: N/A

Fade: The Patriotsí Passing Game

We finally saw some competence from the New England passing game this past week in their Week 16 matchup against Cincinnati, but itís hard to trust that to continue. Even with the Dolphins being absolutely terrible against opposing quarterbacks, youíd have to be in a really awful situation to be considering Mac Jones at this point. Even wide receiver Jakobi Meyers, who finally got back into fantasy relevance this past week, is not worth putting into lineups at the moment. New England is likely going to continue to rely heavily on running back Rhamondre Stevenson and the rest of the offense is going to be about as conservative as any in the league. That type of situation just is not conducive to fantasy success, especially with the Dolphins being without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, thus further limiting the already low chances of a shootout.

Prediction: Dolphins 17, Patriots 14 ^ Top

Jets @ Seahawks - (Krueger)
Line: NYJ -2.0
Total: 42.5

SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2

No Brainers:

Favorite: WR Garrett Wilson

The matchup for Wilson isnít as bad as it appears given the QB change to White. Two of his best games have come with White under center and heís racked up 335 yards in the three games White has started. Seattleís low yardage total given up to WRs can be attributed to their poor rushing defense which has allowed the fourth-most yardage in the league. Facing a secondary thatís had itís share of problems tackling this season, Wilson is an easy low-end WR1 in championship week.

On the Fence: QB Mike White, RB Zonovan Knight

White is an upgrade over Zach Wilson for the Jets and possibly in fantasy too although he hasnít thrown a TD in his two starts after his 315-3-0 display in Week 12 against the Bears. Still, heís displayed a better ability to move the team than Zach and shown a decent rapport with Garrett. This matchup against Seattle isnít as daunting as his last outing against Buffalo, but not as juicy as his meetings against Chicago and Minnesota. Low-end QB1 is likely his upside with a more likely scenario of a high-end QB2 finish on the road in Seattle.

Since Week 12, running back Zonovan Knight has finished as the RB24, RB11, RB13, RB62, RB62 in PPR leagues. If the Jets can control the game and play in a positive game script, then Knight has a decent chance at RB2 value. If you think they get behind, then weíre likely to see more of Michael Carter and Knight could tank your lineup. The Jets should keep this game close and at worst remain in a neutral matchup and Seattle has given up 18 TDs to the position, second only to Houston (21). Thereís fantasy life to Knight in Week 17.

Fade: TE Tyler Conklin

The matchup looks decent for Conklin but itís hard to get excited about the TE20 on the season whoís averaging 3.33 catches and .2 TDs per game. He played 71% of the snaps last week but C.J. Uzomah (51%) is still in the mix. Conklin is uninspiring matchup-based TE2.

NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13

No Brainers: N/A

Favorite: DK Metcalf

Metcalf is going to get the bulk of the attention from a tough Jetsí secondary especially with Tyler Lockett (finger) either out or limited. Still, thatís not going to stop Geno from targeting his best receiver who has a decided height and physical mismatch over anybody trying to guard him. Metcalf has seen 9 targets in each of his last three games and has four double-digit target games on his resume this season. In addition to Locket, Marquise Goodwin (shoulder, wrist) is less than 100% leaving only journeyman Laquon Treadwell as the healthiest receiver outside of Metcalf.

Walker took a step back in his snap share last week (53%) likely due to Seattle attempting to throw the ball more in the first half against the Chiefs. That results in pass-down back DeeJay Dallas seeing more the of the field. When Seattle shifted their focus to running the ball in second half, Walker came to life and ended up touching the ball 28 times. Given the pass-defense displayed by the Jets recently, Iíd expect a heavy dose of Walker to start the game.

On the Fence: QB Geno Smith

Genoís solid season has taken a step back the last couple weeks, finishing as the QB19 and QB16 against the Chiefs and 49ers. He faces another tough test this week against the Jets-D and will have limited or unhealthy options at receiver. The Jets have allowed just 13 passing TDs to quarterbacks, tied for the fewest with the Texans. You can deploy Geno as QB2 in Superflex leagues, but Iíd be leery of him producing QB1 numbers this week.

Update: Tyler Lockett is expected to play.

Fade: WR Tyler Lockett

Fresh off surgery to repair a broken finger, it appears Locket is going to give it a go this week despite his finger remaining swollen. Seems like full use of your hands might be important for an NFL WR, no? Facing a better-than-average Jets secondary, Iíll pass on an injured Lockett this week if he suits up.

Prediction: Seahawks 26, Jets 24 ^ Top

49ers @ Raiders - (Krueger)
Line: SF -9.5
Total: 41.5

LV FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
LV FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
LV FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
LV FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10

No Brainers: RB Christian McCaffrey

Favorite: TE George Kittle

The 49ers tight end has averaged an insane 21.6 yards per catch over his last two games. Heís scored four times in that span and racked up 213 yards. His 8 touchdowns are now second behind Kelce and his 713 yards on the season rank 5th at the position. With Deebo out, Kittle has picked up the slack and the soft matchup against a Raiders defense allowing the 10th most fantasy points at the position is more fuel for the fire. Kittle owners heading into their championship game have to feel good about their tight end position.

On the Fence: WR Brandon Aiyuk

With Kittle soaking up the meat of the fantasy points in the passing game, thereís hasnít been enough volume for Aiyuk to vault into WR2 status. He has 11 targets in his last two games and his 5-81-0 line last week was good enough for a WR31 finish. Heís played at least 96% of the snaps each of the last two weeks but with Purdy hovering in the mid-20ís for pass attempts each week, Aiyuk has a limited ceiling that can only be realized by finding the endzone.

Fade: RBs Jordan Mason, Tyrion Davis-Price

TDP got some run last week, perhaps because the blowout, to the tune of a 9-30-0 line with no targets in the passing game. Jordan Mason was active but never saw an offensive snap. Was he being held back because of a hamstring injury? Perhaps. The matchup is good and this game has some SF blowout potential which could work in the running backs favor, but unless we get a good handle on which running back will be first off the bench behind McCaffery, itís best to avoid this situation.

SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29

No Brainers: N/A

Favorite: RB Josh Jacobs

Another team that has packed it in and looking towards next season is the Raiders. Derek Carr has been benched and could be on his way out of Las Vegas this off-season. As a result, the gameplan will included a lot of Josh Jacobs, as it usually does, but the matchup is the worst it could possibly be and it wouldnít be surprising to see a repeat of last week when the Raiders had a hard time making first downs and Jacobs finished as the RB36 with a 15-44-0 line. Terrible weather was a factor last week. The unknown play at quarterback could be the factor this week. Itís unlikely you have a Jacobs replacement but expectations should be tempered.

On the Fence: WR Davante Adams, TE Darren Waller

Adams is probably closer to a favorite given his talent level but we have to take some precaution given the QB change from Derek Carr to Jarrett Stidham. Adams has also been a bust the last three weeks with just 9 catches and 114 yards during that span with zero TDs. Despite their solid defense, San Francisco has given up some production to wide receivers this season, skewed partly because a couple of rushing TDs by Mecole Hardman in Week 7. Still, attacking San Francisco with wide receivers is the way but it remains to be seen if Stidham is up to the task.

Waller hasnít played more than 49% since coming back from his hamstring injury. Perhaps this has been by design. He managed to find the endzone back in Week 15, but heís only seen 8 targets in two games. A 70% snap share would go along to improving his fantasy outlook, but thereís been no indication that will materialize in Week 17.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: 49ers 27, Raiders 20 ^ Top

Rams @ Chargers - (Krueger)
Line: LAC -6.0
Total: 42.5

LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18

No Brainers: N/A

Favorite: RB Cam Akers

Over the last four weeks, Akers has fantasy finishes of RB8, RB21, RB 21, and RB1. Heís become the dominant back on a team thatís struggle to run the ball but has turned the corner over the last quarter of the season. Heís seen a good snap rate hovering around 75% the last couple weeks and has been involved in the passing game over the last two weeks with 64 receiving yards during that span. This week he gets a defense that can be exploited on the ground. The Chargers have given up the second-most rushing yards (1865) to running back this season. Akers sets up as an easy RB2 with RB1 upside this week.

On the Fence: TE Tyler Higbee

After being shutout of the endzone for 14 weeks, Higbee has now found paydirt three times in the last two weeks. His 9-94-2 outburst last week against the Broncos was easily his best game in an otherwise lackluster season. But given how bad the position has been fantasy, the Rams tight end finds himself as the TE11 in PPR leagues. Obviously expecting another ceiling game is wishful thinking but with a group of below-average receivers not taking priority, Higbee could be inline for an increased target share these last couple of weeks.

Fade: WR Van Jefferson

Jefferson is playing the most snaps by far of any Rams receiver but the last time he saw more than five targets was back in Week 12. Since Baker took over the starting QB job, heís had attempts of 35, 21 and 28. The lack of volume is going to make it tough for any non-alpha receiver to become fantasy relevant. Through in a negative matchup against a decent Chargers secondary and this is good spot to keep Jefferson and the rest of the Rams receivers on your bench.

LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21

No Brainers: RB Austin Ekeler

Favorite: WR Keenan Allen

Allen has been on the most consistent fantasy wide receivers over the last four weeks, especially in PPR leagues where heís racked up 37 catches and 14 targets in three of those games. While Mike Williams has been more volatile, Keenan has been the rock of the offense alongside Austin Ekeler. The Rams are not a pass defense to fear as theyíve given up the 11th most fantasy points to the position including seven 100-yard games, making Allen a safe WR2 with WR1 upside.

On the Fence: WR Mike Williams

Speaking of Williams, his WR4 finish back in Week 14 was followed up by WR40 and WR34 finishes. Such is the volatility of a deep threat receiver. All of the same matchup particulars apply and it wouldnít surprising to see Williams come up with a big game here, but the Chargers have been employing the short-passing game lately, limiting the opportunities for big plays. A couple more downfield shots and Williams is likely to be in the low-end WR1 conversation. If Herbert sticks with the dink and dunk to Allen and Ekeler then WR3 is the more likely scenario for Big Mike in Week 17.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Chargers 24, Rams 20 ^ Top

Vikings @ Packers - (Green)
Line: GB -3.5
Total: 48.5

GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24

No Brainers: RB Dalvin Cook, WR Justin Jefferson, TE T.J. Hockenson

Favorite: N/A

On the Fence: QB Kirk Cousins

Yes, Cousins is rolling, averaging 395 yards and 3 TDs per game over his last three. Yes, he played well against Green Bay in Week 1 with 277 yards and 2 TDs. There are a couple of concerns, however. First, the Packers rank third in the NFL in pass defense at just 192.4 yards per game. Second, and perhaps more importantly, Cousins hasnít played outdoors since Week 10. Will Minnesotaís offense still rely on the pass in wintry Lambeau Field. The jury is out. That makes Cousins a risk/reward QB1.

Fade: WR Adam Thielen

Those concerns about Cousins spill over to his receivers, and at this point itís clear that Hockenson is functioning as the No. 2 target behind Jefferson. Thielen had just one catch against the Giants for six yards, and his 3-36-0 line versus Green Bay back in the opener didnít move the needle, either. At best, you could consider plugging the veteran into your lineup as a flex or low-end WR3, but even then, youíre probably hoping for a touchdown to get Thielen to respectable value.

MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17

Update: Christian Watson is listed as Questionable.

No Brainers: RB Aaron Jones, WR Christian Watson (hip)

Favorite: RB AJ Dillon

With Jones (ankle) still dealing with an ankle issue, Dillon has done much of the heavy lifting in recent weeks. Over the last four games, the bruising back has compiled 326 total yards and five touchdowns with at least one TD in each of those games. He was Green Bayís most effective offensive player in the Week 1 meeting between these two teams, posting 91 yards and a score. Use him as an RB3 with upside.

On the Fence: QB Aaron Rodgers/WR Allen Lazard

Itís easy to see why Rodgers and Lazard would be enticing selections. No one in the NFL has allowed more passing yards than Minnesota at 4,222 (281.5/game), and over their last seven contests the Vikings are giving up 30.1 points per game. The matchup is ripe for exploitation. Working against it is history. Rodgers hasnít had a 300-yard game this season, and he hasnít thrown for multiple TDs since Nov. 27. Meanwhile, Lazard hasnít scored or topped 70 yards since Week 9. Rodgers would be a risky choice as a low-end QB1 that could easily remain on your bench if you had a quality alternative. As for Lazard, heíd be a fringe WR3 if Watson sits and a flex if the rookie plays.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Packers 27, Vikings 20 ^ Top

Steelers @ Ravens - (Green)
Line: BAL -2.5
Total: 34.5

BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20

No Brainers: RB Najee Harris, TE Pat Freiermuth

Favorite: N/A

On the Fence: WRs Diontae Johnson/George Pickens

The last time these two clubs locked up, the Ravens stymied Pittsburghís running game, giving up just 65 yards on 20 carries. The duo of Johnson (6-82-0) and Pickens (3-78-0) posted decent numbers, however, which creates hope for fantasy owners that theyíll deliver some Week 17 value. Of course, it was Mitch Trubisky that played nearly all that matchup after Kenny Pickett was concussed, so you canít read too much into it. Still, both wideouts could be rolled out as low-end WR3s or flex options.

Fade: N/A

PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22

No Brainers: QB Lamar Jackson (knee), TE Mark Andrews

Favorite: J.K. Dobbins

Despite having no passing game to speak of against the Falcons, Baltimore still found plenty of success on the ground with 184 yards on 34 carries. Dobbins accounted for 12 carries and 59 yards, which is respectable but well off what he did against Pittsburgh back in Week 14 when he rattled off 120 yards and a TD on 15 rushes. The Ohio State product has been dynamic since returning from IR, and heíll be counted on to have a big day against the Steelers this Sunday. Plug him in as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3.

On the Fence: RB Gus Edwards

Edwards led the rushing attack in Week 16, gaining 99 yards on 11 carries. Despite averaging an impressive 7.1 yards per carry over the last three games, Edwards isnít getting as much work in even with a similar number of snaps to Dobbins. He ran the ball 13 times for 66 yards against Pittsburgh, and itíd be tough to pencil him in for much more than that in the rematch. Consider Edwards a flex with a little upside.

Fade: QB Tyler Huntley

If Jackson (knee) is deemed unable to play, Huntley will make another start. He posted some good numbers when pressed into action last season. That hasnít been the case in 2022, however, with Huntley logging two total TDs (one passing, one rushing) in his four appearances. He did little before being knocked from the previous game against the Steelers with a concussion and would hold no appeal if he makes the start here.

Prediction: Ravens 18, Steelers 17 ^ Top

Bills @ Bengals - (Green)
Line: BUF -1.5
Total: 49.5

CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16

No Brainers: QB Josh Allen, WR Stefon Diggs

Favorite: TE Dawson Knox

While it hasnít been the breakout season some envisioned, Knox has been trending in a positive direction recently, scoring touchdowns in each of his last three games -- making him the recipient of three of the teamís seven TD passes in that time. Heís also been targeted 20 times during that stretch, the highest three-game total of the season. Pencil him in as a midrange TE1.

On the Fence: WR Gabriel Davis

With unfavorable weather conditions in Chicago, Davis led the Bills in receiving last Saturday, catching three passes for 45 yards and a TD on a team-high six targets. We all know what Davis is capable of, but his production has largely vacillated between middling and disappointing for much of 2022. Itís easy to envision it going either way on Monday night after the Pats had two receivers with 80-plus yards and a score in Week 16 against the Bengals. Davis is a risk/reward WR3 here.

Fade: RB James Cook

Buffalo rode the combination of Devin Singletary (12-106-1) and Cook (11-99-1) to victory against the Bears. Donít expect a repeat performance. Chicago ranks 30th in the NFL against the run, whereas Cincy sits seventh at 106.4 yards per game. Of the two, Singletary is more likely to deliver RB3-type value. Cook has seen his usage ebb and flow throughout his rookie campaign with higher usage against lesser teams. In a big game against a top-tier opponent, Cook may not see enough action to even be playable.

BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30

No Brainers: QB Joe Burrow, RB Joe Mixon, WR JaíMarr Chase, WR Tee Higgins

Favorite: N/A

On the Fence: WR Trenton Irwin

It took an injury to Chase to get Irwin on the field, but the Stanford product showed enough that he continues to get work. Heís also improbably emerged as a red-zone threat, catching two touchdown passes a week ago to give him four over the last six games. The other numbers arenít there, yet, having never posted more than three receptions in a game or topped 60 yards, but the TDs provide Irwin with some lottery-ticket appeal for desperate owners.

Fade: WR Tyler Boyd

Boyd caught just three passes for 21 yards against New England in Week 16, and he has now finished with fewer than 50 yards receiving in seven of his last eight games with only a single touchdown in that time. The veteran basically split snaps with Irwin last Saturday and now feels like someone that should be parked on your bench.

Prediction: Bills 27, Bengals 24 ^ Top