Based purely on talent, Wilson is a no-brainer. He’s been undercut
throughout the season by poor quarterbacking play, though, having
reached the 100-yard mark just twice. Despite the Browns being
a top-tier defense against the pass, Wilson is coming off a solid
effort with Trevor Siemian at the helm, catching nine balls for
76 yards, and he’s closing in a pair of statistical milestones
-- he is 12 receptions away from 100 and 42 yards from reaching
1,000. This is the time of year coaches like to prioritize individual
achievements on teams that won’t be going to the playoffs, so
Wilson could see heavy usage versus Cleveland in that pursuit.
He’s a WR3 with some potential.
Conklin has been a picture of consistent mediocrity of late,
catching four passes in four of the last five weeks. He totaled
between 33 and 36 yards in three of them, with the outlier being
a 57-yard effort versus Houston. Tight ends have been a problem
for Cleveland recently, however, with Evan Engram (11-95-2), Cole
Kmet (5-23-1), and Dalton Schultz (8-61-0) all putting up solid
numbers over the last three games. Given that recent trend, Conklin
is a lottery-ticket type of play this Thursday.
Fade: N/A
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
For the season, the Jets have been much stronger against the
pass than the run, ranking 24th in the NFL at 126.2 yards/game
allowed. While they yielded just 102 yards on the ground versus
the Commanders this past Sunday, three of Washington’s 22 carries
went for touchdowns. That could be good news for both Ford and
Hunt, who haven’t found much room to run in recent weeks. Over
his last four games, Ford is averaging 47 total yards and 0.5
TDs, while Hunt checks in at 28.5 yards and 0.5 TDs per contest
over the same stretch. Neither player should be utilized as more
than a low-end RB3 or flex, but both have a good shot at exceeding
their recent production.
In four starts since signing with the Browns, Flacco is averaging
327 yards, 2.5 TDs, and 1.75 INTs per game. Even taking into account
the fact that he’s a complete nonfactor as a runner, the
veteran has been putting up borderline QB1 numbers. Can he keep
it up against the Jets? The numbers aren’t encouraging.
New York is second only to the Browns in pass defense (168.6 yards/game)
and their 16:14 TD-to-INT ratio is among the best in the NFL as
well. Still, you can’t summarily dismiss the roll that Flacco
has been on, leaving you with the decision to play the hot hand
or go with the numbers. Take your alternatives into account, and
then make the call.
Shootout games like the one the Lions were in with the Vikings
this past week have tended to lean toward Jahmyr Gibbs seeing
an increased role this season. He may not be the “bell cow”
back in Detroit, but Gibbs is a bona fide fantasy RB1 and someone
fantasy managers should trust in just about any matchup. He’s
scored 17 or more PPR fantasy points in seven of his past nine
games, with 25 or more points in five of those nine games.
The Cowboys mostly kept Raheem Mostert and Devon Achane in check
this past week aside from a red zone touchdown reception from
Mostert, but they got pummeled by the Bills backfield in Week
15, particularly by James Cook, who is the closest thing to Gibbs
that the Bills have on their roster. Dallas’ defense is still
not one that we want to be targeting players against, but it’s
become increasingly beatable as the season has gone on and Gibbs
has been too hot to consider benching.
The Detroit backfield has been a gold mine for fantasy production
this season so don’t take David Montgomery being “on
the fence” as an indication that he should be benched. This
is more so to note that while Montgomery has continued to produce
viable RB2 fantasy numbers as of late, he has not been the stud
RB1 that he was earlier in the season. Montgomery has produced
between 10 and 18 fantasy points in seven straight games since
returning from injury, which has correlated with him playing fewer
snaps than he was earlier in the year. Montgomery was on the field
for 70 percent or more of Detroit’s offensive snaps in all
but one of Detroit’s first five games, but he has played
under 45 percent of snaps in all but two games since he returned.
Montgomery has become a solid floor play, but he’s lacking
the playing time to make him a truly great ceiling option at this
point. He could still get there if the Lions get tackled inside
the five-yard line a bunch of times against the Cowboys, but there
is a good chance that Montgomery will be delivering 15 or fewer
fantasy points again this week, even if he scores a touchdown.
The Lions offense continues to produce big numbers this season
and one player who many had high expectations for who has started
to move up the rankings again is Jameson Williams. Williams had
seen three or fewer targets in all but one game he played in from
Week 1 through Week 14, but he’s suddenly seen a significant
increase in usage over the past two weeks with seven and six targets
in those contests. Williams hasn’t delivered big numbers
with the increased usage, but it has moved him up on many platforms’
projections which has made him a waiver target in some leagues.
While the increased targets are a valid data point, it’s
also worth noting that Williams is actually not running significantly
more routes during this stretch. The Lions have shown us that
they have two main target leaders in Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam
LaPorta, then a viable pass-catching back in Jahmyr Gibbs, and
everyone else is part of a forgettable bunch who should not be
in fantasy lineups against good defenses like the Cowboys.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
The MVP front-runner a few weeks ago, Dak Prescott has taken
a step back in recent contests and fantasy managers have plenty
of reasons to be worried that the Cowboys could lay another egg
against a team headed for the playoffs. However, this matchup
could also be a get-right game for the Cowboys' offense as the
Detroit defense remains one of the best pass funnels in the league.
The Lions are coming off of a game in which they allowed the
Vikings’ Nick Mullens to throw for 411 yards and two touchdowns
against them in what ended up being a surprisingly competitive
game. Yes, the Lions did force a season-high four interceptions
in that contest, but it’s still noteworthy that a career backup
QB was able to reach 400 yards through the air against them.
Prescott has the weapons and the Cowboys have shown the propensity
to throw the ball early and often in games, so this has all the
makings of being a game that is excellent for fantasy stacking
here in Week 17.
We know that CeeDee Lamb is the top pass-catcher in the Cowboys’
offense, but the second-leading receiver on the roster has shifted
around throughout the year, largely depending on matchup. This
week the Cowboys face a Lions defense that has been terrible at
defending opposing tight ends. They gave up over 100 yards to
the Vikings’ tight ends a week ago and they’re a top-10
matchup for opposing tight ends on the year.
Jake Ferguson has seen exactly eight targets come his way in
each of his past four games, giving him a solid floor to go along
with a decent ceiling in this matchup. The only concern is that
he has only scored one touchdown over his past six games, so he
doesn’t have quite the upside of some of the other tight
ends who’ve seen more red zone usage in recent weeks. Still,
he’s probably worth starting on most rosters in this advantageous
matchup.
While he might still finish as a low-end RB1 this season, it’s
hard to argue that Tony Pollard hasn’t been a disappointment
for fantasy managers this season. He had a great four-week stretch
from Weeks 11 through 14 - which were all Cowboys wins - but his
numbers have taken a noticeable hit over the past two weeks which
saw Dallas fall to the Bills and Dolphins. The Cowboys now head
on the road to face a good Detroit team that has already secured
their division and one that has been excellent at containing opposing
running backs this season.
The Lions currently rank as the worst matchup in the league for
opposing backs in 2023, having given up just 884 yards on the
ground. They are also one of only three teams (Bears, 49ers) who’ve
conceded fewer than 1,000 rushing yards to opposing backs this
season. Additionally, they’re one of only two teams (Eagles)
who’ve given up no touchdowns to opposing backs in the passing
game.
There’s not much of a risk of Pollard losing significant playing
time in this game with Rico Dowdle being banged up, but fantasy
managers also need to be realistic that this is probably another
high-single-digit to low-double-digit PPR game for Pollard.
There is perhaps no more interesting Rorschach test for a fantasy
player this Sunday than Tagovailoa. He leads the NFL in passing
yards and is tied for sixth in TDs, but he’s managed one
TD or fewer in five of his last seven games. On the other side,
Baltimore is sixth in the NFL in pass defense (193.9 yards/game)
and is one of just two teams with more INTs (16) than TD passes
allowed (15). Then there’s the historical element. Last
year, Tagovailoa engineered one of the great comebacks in recent
memory, throwing for 469 yards, 6 TDs, and 2 INTs against the
Ravens to erase a 21-point fourth-quarter lead. You can bet Baltimore
remembers. Add it all up, and the lefty could deliver high-end
QB1 value or get absolutely locked down. Caveat emptor.
One of the truly dynamic performers in the NFL earlier this season,
Achane hasn’t really rediscovered that form since returning
from injury. Outside of his 103-yard, 2-TD effort in a blowout
of Washington, the rookie hasn’t scored since Oct. 8, and
he’s averaging a modest 55 yards per game over his last
three. The Ravens sit 12th in run defense, allowing 103.4 yards
per contest, and have given up a league-low five TDs. While his
speed gives him upside, Achane would be miscast here as anything
more than a flex.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
With Mark Andrews still on the mend, the duo of Flowers (9-72-1
on MNF) and Likely (3-56-0) have emerged as the top options for
Jackson. While Flowers (calf) has missed some practice this week,
there’s no indication he’s in danger of being inactive in Week
17, which is good since his play has been particularly sweet of
late. In his last four games, the rookie has scored four TDs.
As for Likely, he’s racked up 17 receptions (on 23 targets) for
249 yards and a pair of touchdowns. This duo belongs in your lineup
this weekend with Flowers as a WR2 and Likely as a top-10 TE.
Edwards scraped together playable value on Christmas night against
the 49ers, putting up 70 yards and a touchdown. The concern is
that he logged just 10 combined touches, which were three fewer
than backup Justice Hill. Game situation likely played a role,
as much of Hill’s usage came with Baltimore up big in the second
half, but Edwards hasn’t been seeing the same workload over the
second half of the year. Doubtless the Ravens will want to keep
the ball away from Miami’s offense, which means possession and
running the clock, so Edwards can be used as a high-end RB3. It’s
just a little dicey when you can’t safely pencil in a back for
X number of touches.
For a minute there, it looked like Beckham was rounding into
form. Over his last four games, however, he’s topped 40
yards only once, and he’s coming off consecutive outings
in which he logged 14 and 13 yards, respectively. There’s
always some level of explosiveness with OBJ, as evidenced by his
97-yard, 1-touchdown effort against the Rams on Dec. 10, but those
outbursts have been few and far between. In what’s surely
a “win or go home” scenario for fantasy owners, he
can’t be trusted.
Derrick Henry rebounded last week from a dud of a game in Week
16 when he rushed for 9 yards on 16 carries. The 88 yards rushing
he mustered last week on 19 attempts with a score is far from
the Derrick Henry we’ve come to know, but that Derrick Henry
is long gone. What’s left is a low-end RB2 in fantasy with
some upside. Consider him such as you place him in your lineup
this week.
DeAndre Hopkins continues to be the low-floor, high-ceiling player
he’s been all year. We simply don’t know what we are
going to get from him from one week to the next. As such, decisions
to start him can be difficult. His 41 yards combined over the
last two games on four catches makes the decision this week a
bit easier, despite Houston giving up the seventh-most passing
yards this season. Treat Hopkins as a low-end flex option this
week.
On the Fence: N/A
Fade: N/A
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Stroud looks to find the magic he had when he had at least 304
passing yards in four straight games from Weeks 10-14. But Tennessee
is a formidable threat against the pass, as they have only surrendered
more than 300 yards passing once while holding the opposition
to the third-fewest passing TDs. That said, Stroud’s ceiling
is simply too high to bench him, despite missing the previous
two games with a concussion.
Stroud’s return gives all Texan skill players a significant
boost. Devin Singletary continues to dominate the carries in Houston,
and even supplements his production on the ground with solid potential
in the passing game. Dalton Schultz is a low-end TE1 with upside,
and Nico Collins likewise at the receiver position. Each should
find themselves in your lineup this week.
With so many options in this offense, there will be an odd man
out each week. Noah Brown is the likely candidate, as he’s
had the most up and down season of them all—similar to his
nine catch, 191-yard performance in Week 14, only to follow it
up with a one-catch-for-13-yard clunker the next. Keep him on
your bench.
The Patriots’ offense is still one that we want to avoid as much
as possible, but one player who’s been an interesting fantasy
contributor in recent weeks is Hunter Henry. We saw him blow up
early in the season with two big games and then he’s essentially
been completely useless for fantasy purposes until the past two
weeks, when he’s delivered three touchdown receptions. The tight
end position has taken some hits over the past few weeks and Henry
is still available in a good number of leagues, so he should be
considered a potential fill-in down the stretch, especially given
that he’s seen 12 targets over his past two games. Buffalo isn’t
a great matchup for tight ends, but Henry may be Bailey Zappe’s
de facto top option in the passing game.
Rhamondre Stevenson was placed on IR earlier this week, which
has cleared the way for Ezekiel Elliott to continue his career
resurgence. Elliott has been quietly excellent for fantasy purposes
since Stevenson’s injury and he’s averaged nearly 18 fantasy points
per game since becoming the lead back in New England. The Bills
are a middle-of-the-road defense at defending opposing backs so
don’t expect a crazy game from Elliott, but if the Patriots are
going to keep this one close, then it’s probably going to happen
because they were able to control the clock by leaning heavily
on their running game. Look for Elliott to push for 20 touches
again in this game, making him a solid RB2.
We’ve seen some good and some bad from Bailey Zappe, but
the New England offense is still bad enough that we really shouldn’t
be looking to start many players for fantasy, especially the quarterbacks.
Zappe has not yet thrown for even 260 yards in any game and he
now faces a Buffalo defense that has given up the seventh-fewest
fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
James Cook’s five-point fantasy day against the Chargers
in Week 16 was certainly disappointing and it might have been
the difference that kept some fantasy managers from making their
championship games. While the final point production was terrible,
all of the data still indicates that trusting Cook was a good
choice from a process standpoint. Cook touched the ball 20 times,
marking the fourth time he’s met or exceeded that total
over his past five games. The big difference was simply that he
didn’t catch any passes for just the second time all season
and he was held out of the end zone.
Looking ahead to this week, we should expect that Cook’s
usage will remain strong, making him an excellent option against
a broken-down New England team that has nothing to play for. Cook
had 16 touches and produced over 100 yards of offense while scoring
a touchdown against the Patriots when these teams played back
in Week 7, so look for him to be a big part of the offense this
week.
Fantasy managers who’ve been starting Stefon Diggs have
probably already moved on before even reading this, but there’s
still hope for this fallen fantasy superstar. Diggs produced a
solid six-reception game with a touchdown when these teams played
back in Week 7 and while his fantasy numbers have been in the
gutter as of late, his usage has remained fairly strong. He’s
still seen at least eight targets in four of his past five games
and no other player in the offense is even close to taking over
as the team’s top pass-catcher. It’s fine to bench
Diggs if you have another solid option, but don’t let recency
bias force you into starting a less-talented player over Diggs
just because that player has been “hot” lately.
Kincaid has enjoyed a successful rookie campaign and looks like
he’ll be someone that we can look to for further breakout seasons,
but this Week 17 matchup against the Patriots looks like it could
be a tough one. He did have his first real “coming-out” game against
the Patriots back in Week 7 when he caught eight passes for 75
yards, but the Bills offense has certainly not been focused on
getting him the ball in recent weeks. In fact, over his past two
games, Kincaid has only seen a total of four targets come his
way. This has correlated fairly strongly with the return of fellow
tight end Dawson Knox who has not re-taken his role as the “starter”
at the position, but he’s been coming in often enough that Kincaid
has seen a roughly 25 percent drop off in his route participation
from where it was at during the weeks when Knox was out. This,
along with the Bills’ recent commitment to their running game,
has meant that Kincaid has been an unusable fantasy contributor
as of late. Add that to the fact that the Patriots boast the league’s
second-stingiest defense at containing tight ends and you’ll want
to look elsewhere for production in your fantasy playoffs.
It could be argued that Puka Nacua should just be a “no-brainer”
at this point, but it never hurts to remind everyone that this
superstar rookie wide receiver is just 146 yards away from becoming
the NFL’s all-time rookie receiving leader. With two games
remaining, we should expect that the Rams are aware of this record
and will push to make their late-round pick look even more like
a spectacular hit by getting him over the finish line. Look for
Nacua to be the target leader on the team for these remaining
two games.
Cooper Kupp’s rollercoaster season has been frustrating
for fantasy managers, which has meant that he’s been on
the bench during some of his biggest performances and in lineups
during some of his worst performances. While the final numbers
haven’t always meant excitement from managers, Kupp’s
usage has mostly remained strong throughout the season and especially
recently as he’s managed to average 9.5 targets per game
over his past four contests. That type of usage, in an offense
that has been scoring as many points as the Rams have, is very
difficult to come by and it means that he should probably be in
most lineups during championship week.
With Tutu Atwell’s early-season production now firmly in the
rear-view mirror, the Rams have seen the emergence of another
third option at WR with Demarcus Robinson. Robinson, a journeyman
who’s spent most of his career with the Chiefs, started seeing
a big uptick in playing time in Week 12 and he began producing
almost immediately. He’s now scored a touchdown in four straight
games, putting him on fantasy radars for the first time in many
years.
This type of production would usually mean that fantasy managers
are jumping to start him in their fantasy lineups, but this type
of production continuing just doesn’t seem very likely.
Yes, we know that the Rams can score a bunch of points, but their
production has almost always been consolidated to two main pass-catchers
and their running backs. It’s been very rare throughout
the McVay tenure that a third option has remained viable for an
extended period of time. With both Nacua and Kupp healthy, and
Kyren Williams producing like a stud RB1, there’s not a
ton of room for another player in this offense to be producing
fantasy numbers. Robinson did have a 10-target game in Week 14,
but he’s otherwise been held to six or fewer targets in
every game this season, meaning that he needs to keep up an absolutely
crazy touchdown rate to deliver even usable fantasy numbers. That’s
just not likely and managers should be looking for a more trustworthy
option in championship week.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
The Giants quarterback situation has been an absolute mess this
season and while the Tommy DeVito run was fun for the meme community,
the truth is that the New York offense is almost certainly in
better hands with Tyrod Taylor behind center. DeVito had thrown
for 200 yards just once during his seven-game stretch as the Giants’
starter, whereas Taylor had done so in each of his two starts
in Weeks 6 and 7 before getting injured. Additionally, Taylor
does have some mobility and has already rushed for 119 yards in
minimal playing time this season. He’s certainly not Lamar Jackson,
but he’s someone who can add a couple of points with his legs.
There’s not a lot to love about this Giants offense, but
Taylor is not completely worthless for fantasy purposes. He’ll
be facing a Rams defense that is a top-10 overall opponent for
quarterbacks, and that has given up the eighth-most rushing yards
to the position this season. Don’t bench a quality QB for
Taylor, but you could do worse if you’re in a pinch in Superflex
leagues.
Saquon Barkley has been very up-and-down which has certainly
correlated with the Giants’ overall offensive struggles,
and he’s now dealing with an elbow injury that has limited
him in practice throughout the week. He’s still expected
to play, but Barkley is not in a great situation for fantasy success
even if he’s fully healthy because the Giants offense is
still expected to be bad even with their quarterback change and
Barkley himself will be facing a Rams defense that has given up
the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this
season. It’s almost impossible to find players who regularly
see 15-or-more touches at running back, so it’s understandable
if you need to start Barkley, but understand that this could be
another down game for the superstar RB.
Darius Slayton has had a quiet season overall, but he’s
come back onto some fantasy radars in recent weeks as he’s
managed to produce double-digit fantasy points in three of his
past five games. With Tyrod Taylor back in at quarterback, there
seems to be some interest brewing in Slayton as a low-end Flex
option, but this stretch has all the makings of fool’s gold.
Slayton did have an eight-target game back in Week 15, but has
otherwise been kept to five or fewer targets in five of his past
six games. Even if we assume that Taylor is a significant upgrade
from DeVito - which remains to be seen - there just is not enough
volume here for Slayton, or any Giants pass-catcher, to be a viable
option for fantasy.
Brock Purdy’s MVP chances took a significant hit as we
saw him turn in what was perhaps the first truly “bad”
game of his professional career. Purdy threw four interceptions
before being benched in the 49ers’ blowout loss to the Ravens
and he contributed a single touchdown for the first time all season
long.
Things are looking much better as we head into this week’s matchup,
however, as Purdy has the opportunity to face a Washington defense
that has been the absolute best matchup for opposing quarterbacks
this season. The Commanders have given up a league-high 33 touchdown
passes. They’ve given up multi-touchdown games to 12 different
quarterbacks in 15 games. The only QBs who failed to score multiple
touchdowns against them were Joshua Dobbs (when he was still on
the Cardinals), Mac Jones, and Trevor Siemian. Needless to say,
things are looking great for a huge bounce-back week for Purdy
and the 49ers offense as a whole. He’s a borderline top-five option
at the position this week.
Wide receiver Deebo Samuel has been limited at practice this
week due to a sprained neck that he suffered during the 49ers’
Week 16 loss to the Ravens, but if he’s back on the field
this week then he should probably be in your fantasy lineup. Samuel
has long been a boom-or-bust type of player, but he’s been
on an absolute tear since the 49ers’ Week 9 bye. Before
getting injured against the Ravens, Samuel had averaged over 23
fantasy points per game over his previous six games. Samuel not
only gets usage in the passing game, but he’s also one of
the team’s primary red zone weapons as a runner, making
him perhaps the most versatile wide receiver in the entire league.
There’s a chance that he will miss this game so keep a
close eye as the games get closer, but Samuel against the Commanders
is a matchup made in fantasy heaven.
Don’t bench him, but fantasy managers need to lower their
expectations for George Kittle a bit this week as his recent hot
streak could lead to some disappointment in what is a difficult
on-paper matchup against the Commanders. Despite being a terrible
defense overall, the Commanders haven’t allowed a 10-point
PPR day or a single touchdown to an opposing TE since Week 9.
Of course, they haven’t exactly played top-tier competition
at the position, but this is still not the best matchup for Kittle.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
With the Commanders still having nothing to play for, they may
opt to again sit running back Brian Robinson Jr. who’s been dealing
with a hamstring injury that’s kept him out the past two games.
Robinson did return to practice, albeit in limited fashion, on
Wednesday and he does have a chance to play, which would likely
mean that the team returns to some sort of committee approach
as they’re not likely to rush him back into a full workload.
If Robinson does sit, however, there’s an opportunity for Antonio
Gibson to see borderline bell-cow-level work in this contest.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. was placed on IR and Jonathan Williams still
has not cleared the concussion protocol, leaving Gibbs as essentially
the only healthy running back on the roster.
Of course, this alone doesn’t mean that Gibson becomes
a must-start for fantasy purposes as the Commanders could simply
choose to lean more on their passing game against a good 49ers’
run defense, but those in need of a one-week solution at running
back should at least add Gibson now and see what happens with
inactives leading up to game time.
The 49ers are good against TEs, but they’ve also faced a fairly
easy schedule. They gave up big games to both T.J. Hockenson and
Trey McBride. Logan Thomas isn’t on that level, but he was tied
for the team lead in targets in Week 16 - a game that saw Jacoby
Brissett take over as the Commanders’ starting quarterback. With
Brissett slated to start again, Thomas could be a decent desperation
pivot for those who lost Hockenson going into championship week.
We cautioned fantasy managers to not get too excited about Terry
McLaurin’s huge Week 15 performance as his previous work had not
been good enough to make him trustworthy, and that caution turned
out to be valid. McLaurin was held to just three receptions for
50 yards as the Commanders lost to the Jets. McLaurin has now
been held under 10 PPR points in five of his past six games and
while there’s some belief that Jacoby Brissett may be better than
Sam Howell overall, it’s unlikely that he’ll be willing to stretch
the field with McLaurin nearly as often.
Hopefully, the Commanders can figure out their quarterback position
heading into 2024, but McLaurin’s fantasy viability seems
to be just about done for this season.
Kyler Murray has re-established himself as a borderline QB1 for
fantasy this season and he’s done so without really having a WR1
to throw to. Sure, Marquise Brown is on the team, but he’s not
a true WR1 and he’s also been banged up. Instead, it’s been tight
end Trey McBride who’s seen huge usage during the second half
of the season and especially since Murray returned. McBride is
now averaging nine targets per game over his past eight games.
That’s unquestionably elite usage and it’s made him a must-start
in all formats.
This duo now faces a Philadelphia defense that has been terrible
against opposing passing games this season, which should give
managers even more confidence in them during their championship
week.
With Kyler Murray keeping defenses honest, we’ve seen James
Conner step up and return to his role as a fantasy RB1 in recent
weeks. Conner has scored a touchdown in three straight games,
turning in at least 17 total fantasy points in each of those contests,
and he’s continued to see the majority of his team’s
backfield opportunities.
The biggest concern for those rostering Conner this week is that
he’ll be facing an Eagles defense that has been quite staunch
against opposing running backs this season. While they’ve gotten
beaten up a bit in recent weeks by Christian McCaffrey, Tony Pollard,
Kenneth Walker, and Saquon Barkley, those are some of the most
talented backs in the league and while Conner is still good, he
lacks the explosiveness that those players possess. Still, he’s
seeing enough usage that he should have a solid fantasy floor
even in this tough matchup.
Update: Marquise
Brown (heel)has been placed on IR.
Wide receiver Marquise Brown has been dealing with a heel injury
for multiple weeks now and could miss another game. While the
injury situation has been unfortunate, the reality is that Brown
just has not been good even when he’s been healthy. It’s
true that he’s had limited time to play with Murray, but
Brown was held to single-digit PPR points in five of his seven
games even prior to getting hurt. Don’t be tempted with
the “he’s the WR1” narrative if Brown is healthy.
This situation is beginning to look a lot more like the Chiefs
and Ravens with tight end Trey McBride being the “WR1”
and everyone else fighting for the scraps.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
The Eagles were able to get an important division win over the
Giants this past week, but there’s no question that things
have been tough for this team in recent weeks. One player who’s
struggled due to the team’s overall slump has been running
back D’Andre Swift. Before getting into the end zone in
Week 16, Swift had been held scoreless in each of his previous
four games and had not turned in a double-digit fantasy day in
any of those contests.
Swift’s usage got back on track this past week, though,
as he saw 20 carries - his second-highest total of the season
- and he now gets to face an Arizona defense that has been the
absolute best matchup for opposing running backs this season.
The Cardinals have given up at least 112 rushing yards to opposing
running backs in six straight games and that doesn’t even
take into account that both Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams
went over 60 receiving yards and caught two touchdowns each against
this defense.
He may not be the sexy name that he was earlier this season when
he was completely crushing defenses, but Swift has some serious
potential for a big game in this one.
While A.J. Brown remains the unquestioned alpha in the Philadelphia
offense, the remaining targets have largely been funneled to wide
receiver DeVonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert. Goedert returned
from injury in Week 14 and has since been targeted 22 times. Smith
was targeted 10 times in that Week 14 game with the Cowboys when
Goedert returned, but he has since seen just 10 targets over his
past two games. While this drop-off in usage looks like a potential
small sample size trap, we’ve actually seen this scenario
play out quite a bit throughout these two players’ careers
with the Eagles. When one or the other is out then the player
who’s on the field has seen significant usage increases,
but as soon as they’re both on the field then they seem
to begin limiting one another.
It’s not that Smith and Goedert are must-bench players,
especially given the Philadelphia offense being one of the league’s
most productive units, but the Cardinals are also a team that
gives up a ton of production to opposing running backs while typically
doing fairly well against opposing wide receivers and tight ends.
Week 16 saw Kenneth Gainwell turn in his best fantasy day since
Week 1, but the reality is that despite his increased production,
there really isn’t anything to indicate that he’s
going to be utilized more in the offense going forward. Gainwell
played in just 39 percent of the Eagles’ offensive snaps
- his lowest total since Week 12 - and he ran routes on just 37
percent of the Eagles’ passing plays, which only narrowly
edged out starter D’Andre Swift.
Gainwell would be usable in the scenario where Swift goes down
with an injury, but otherwise he’s someone fantasy managers
will want to avoid because he simply lacks the usage to deliver
upside.
Derek Carr is in the midst of the best stretch of the season,
with eight TD passes of the last three games. Now he goes up against
the Bucs, who have given up a league-worst in passing yards allowed.
But can we trust Carr to follow up his 319-yard, three-TD performance
from last week? That’s the question fantasy managers must
ask themselves. I’m skeptical.
For those looking to swing for the fences, Rashid Shaheed is
an option. He’s been a below-average fantasy option for
most of the last month or so; his 70-yard, 1-TD performance last
week notwithstanding. Somebody on the Saints is going to have
a solid receiving game, and if Tampa Bay gives Olave the attention
he deserves, that could open the door for Shaheed to be a sneaky
play this week.
Fade: N/A
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Don’t look now, but Baker Mayfield has resuscitated his
career to the point where he is now a viable fantasy starter.
The Saints just gave up 325 passing yards to the Rams on the road,
and the Bucs have similarly productive weapons on the outside.
With all the injuries the QB position has experienced in the NFL
this season, Mayfield is a solid fallback. Play him with confidence.
After the goose egg Godwin put up in Week 13, he’s had
21 receptions in the three games since. Chris Godwin simply doing
Chris Godwin things. The Bucs No.2 receiver posted an 8-114-0
line on 11 targets back in Week 4 against New Orleans. A top-end
flex option this week.
The 30 points Carolina scored last week was only three more than
they had scored in their last three games combined. This offense
has struggled all season, and as such, has been a fantasy waste
land for the most part. But Chuba Hubbard has carved out some
significance in the fantasy realm, although he’s been limited
at practice so far this week with a hamstring issue. His presence
is crucial to the success of this offense, so keep an eye out
for is availability. But even if he plays and is at full strength,
he will find it tough against a Jacksonville team that has limited
two of its last three opponents to fewer than 83 yards on the
ground as a team.
Adam Thielen’s 94 receiving yards last week was the most
he’s tallied since a Week 6 performance that saw him gain
115 yards on 11 catches. The Jaguars are most vulnerable in the
secondary, as they’ve given up the third most passing yards
and the seventh most passing yards. Thielen could be a sneaky
flex play this week.
Don’t let Bryce Young’s best game of his career last week full
you. He is still a work in progress and should only be on a fantasy
roster in the deepest of leagues.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Calvin Ridley is second on the team in targets and receptions,
but he has perhaps the highest ceiling. With an ailing Trevor
Lawrence iffy for the contest, that could limit Ridley’s
potential. Carolina has been tough against the pass, giving up
the fourth fewest passing yards in the league and the 11th fewest
passing TDs. Buyer beware of Ridley this week.
Zay Jones has battled injuries most of the 2023 season, and now
he goes up against one of the toughest pass defenses in the league
with, potentially, a backup quarterback. Fade Zay Jones this week
if he plays, without regret.
While the numbers still aren’t what they probably should be,
Pitts’ production has been trending upwards. Over the last four
weeks, the former first-round pick has topped 45 yards three times
and scored twice. In his first 11 games, Pitts topped 45 yards
three times and scored once. Chicago is as stout as they come
against the run, but they rate 25th versus the pass with just
two teams having allowed more TDs. Trey McBride caught six passes
a week ago, and David Njoku had a 10-104-1 line versus Chicago
in Week 15. Pitts offers some upside as a low-end TE1.
Inconsistency, thy name is Drake London. The USC alum’s production
has been all over the map this season, ranging from two games
of less than 10 yards to a 172-yard outburst in Week 14. That
effort has been surrounded by poor showings, with London totaling
71 yards combined in his other three most recent games. Make no
mistake, Atlanta wants to run, but Chicago leads the NFL in run
defense, so the Falcons may be forced to adjust their strategy.
In that scenario, London could have a big game. Then again, the
balls could go to Robinson and Pitts, or even Jonnu Smith. As
a flex or low-end WR3, you could take the risk.
Fade: N/A
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
In what’s becoming a regular feature, it’s time once
again to guess which Bears back will get the carries. Foreman
was the lead back in Week 14, was highly ineffective in Week 15,
and then was inactive last week for personal reasons. He’s
back at practice, though, so expect him to return. Herbert had
barely played in three games coming into last Sunday, but with
Foreman down, the third-year pro carried the load with a team-high
20 carries for 112 yards and a touchdown (his first of 2023).
Johnson has been the most consistent, but that has come in a complementary
role, and it seems like his ceiling is the lowest. Choosing any
of these backs is risky, but Foreman once again seems like the
best choice as a flex/RB3. You could roll the dice on Herbert
if you’re desperate, hoping that the Bears reward him for
his strong play in Week 16.
This one might be a moot point as Kmet (knee) has yet to practice
this week due to a knee injury, but if he does suit up that same
issue is a reason to seek your fortunes elsewhere at the position.
Kmet posted a 4-107-0 line in Week 16, so his profile might be
raised. In what’ll be Championship Game time in most fantasy
leagues, it’d be a bad idea to be reliant on a player that
entered Week 16 with a quad injury and left it with knee trouble.
Last week’s contest against Kansas City was Davante Adams’
third game this season that he recorded two or fewer receptions.
One catch for four yards is not going to cut it at this point
of the fantasy season, but chances are you have few alternatives.
You will have to stick with Adams and hope he rebounds from his
dreadful performance against the Chiefs. However, the Colts are
in the top-half of the league (14th) against the pass and have
given up the third fewest TD receptions, so Indy will present
a tough matchup for the 31-year-old veteran.
Likewise, for Jakobi Meyers. He’s a low-volume receiver playing
with an average QB in rookie Aidan O’Connell. Meyers hasn’t cracked
80 receiving yards since Week 2, and there’s no reason to believe
it’ll be anything different against Indy. Play Meyers as a flex
option and hope for the best.
RB Josh Jacobs has missed the last two games and, as of Thursday,
has yet to practice this week. Zamir White started last week in
Kansas City and finished with the best game of his career—145
yards rushing on 22 carries. The 145 rushing yards were more than
he had for the season coming into the contest. The Colts present
a solid opportunity to have a similar productive game, as Indy
has given up the fifth-most rushing yards and third-most rushing
TDs. Keep an eye on Jacobs’ availability going into the game.
His presence, of course, would limit White’ ceiling considerably.
Fade: N/A
LV FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
LV FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
LV FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
LV FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
After a limited practice on Wednesday, Pittman logged a full
practice on Thursday. He’s trending toward returning after
a concussion cost him last week’s game. When he’s
active and healthy, Pittman is the clear-cut lead dog in an Indianapolis
offense that has scored the ninth-most points in the league. Before
suffering his concussion against Pittsburgh in Week 15, Pittman
had four straight games with at least eight receptions and 84
yards. That’s solid WR1 numbers in fantasy. Look for him
to return to form against the Raiders.
Josh Downs filled the role of WR1 for the Colts last week in
Pittman’s absence. He led the team with nine targets but
could only tally a modest 39 yards on six catches. Downs should
revert to his complementary roll with Pittman’s return,
which hasn’t yielded much production for fantasy managers.
He hasn’t scored since Week 7 and has yet to eclipse 43
receiving yards since Week 9. The only way Downs should be in
your lineup is if you are decimated with injuries.
Gardner Minshew has had sporadic production this season, and
it is that inconsistency that should scare most fantasy managers
away. Minshew is not to be trusted heading into the most important
game of the fantasy season for many leagues. Stay away.
Jaylen Warren has been a backend RB3 for the 2023 season, with
a lot of up-and-down performances. Since going for at least 100
yards in three consecutive games in November, he’s not gotten
back to the 100-yard mark since. That being said, he has at least
4 receptions in each of the last three games and is just four
receptions behind George Pickens for the team lead (52).
Warren gets 3 additional breaks this week that could notably
play in his favor. One is that Najee Harris missed practice early
in the week. He did return on Thursday in a limited basis, but
it’s not yet clear if he’ll play, and in what capacity. A Harris
absence would create the strong possibility that Warren plays
as a bellcow back against the Seahawks.
Speaking of the Seahawks, they’ve given up the 6th most points
to opposing running backs this year, making Warren a good flex
option even if Harris does play. Lastly, Mason Rudolph will start
this week for the Steelers. During 11 career starts, Rudolph’s
desire to get rid of the ball quickly and avoid sacks has led
to one or more Steelers running backs leading the team in targets
in five different games.
The stars are aligning favorably for Warren in what will be Championship
week in most leagues.
While Mason Rudolph has been called on to start for the Steelers,
the team has remained competitive (6-4-1). Last week, Rudolph
became the first Steelers QB to produce more than 250 net passing
yards and 2 touchdowns since Ben Roethlisberger retired. But be
careful. In Rudolph’s career, he’s only thrown for over 250 yards
twice and has gone for multiple touchdowns in just four starts.
He’s also far from the most mobile quarterback, with just 93 career
rushing yards and no rushing touchdowns.
It could be that Rudolph has grown as a quarterback and last
week was perhaps evidence of that. But there’s a very real
possibility that it was just a game where everything clicked between
Rudolph and Pickens (4 receptions 195 yards 2 touchdowns). The
QB position is thin right now, so you might find yourself considering
Rudolph. He’s in the QB2 conversation, but it’s hard
to expect much more.
Meanwhile, George Pickens had his 4th 100-yard performance of
the season last week. But he is just 28th in targets at the position
despite being active all season. Pickens ranks 30th in fantasy
points per game, and despite the connection he and Rudolph displayed
last week, Pickens is probably what he’s been all year,
a bit of a boom-or-bust flex.
Freiermuth has been largely absent from the Steelers passing
attack aside from a 9 reception, 120-yard performance against
the Bengals, including zero targets last week. However, in Rudolph’s
previous start with Freiermuth at TE (2021), the Steelers veteran
QB targeted his TE1 nine times. Freiermuth’s quiet season
doesn’t make him a great play, but he could have a bounce
back game, pushing him into the TE2 conversation for managers
who are desperate at tight end.
Lastly, it’s worth taking a look at Najee Harris’s
injury status leading up to game time this weekend. While Najee’s
touches are down and the Steelers’ blocking scheme continues
to struggle, he’s still averaging 15 touches a game. If
he starts against a very beautiful Seahawk run defense, he is
a flex.
Fade: N/A
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Metcalf should have his QB1 Geno Smith again this week, and the
league’s No.18 wide receiver has averaged over 13 FPts/G with
Smith, including a massive outburst against Dallas (34.4 points).
The ceiling is certainly WR1 against a middling Steelers secondary.
Walker missed practice on Thursday, and he’s a big question
mark for this weekend’s game with the Steelers. If he sits
out, Zach Charbonnet would move safely into the RB2 conversation.
But Walker ended up playing last week despite missing practice
(17 touches 56 yards), so it’s entirely possible that the
Seahawks will follow the same script this week. This is a situation
worth watching, with a banged-up Walker being more of a flex than
RB2 if he goes.
Geno Smith has only broken the 20-point mark three times this
season, after doing so seven times last year. Injuries to him
and his teammates have played a role, and the Seahawks have the
longest injury report in the league this week. With Smith facing
a very difficult Steelers defense (8th toughest on QBs) and ranked
just 25th among QBs with at least three starts, he appears to
be an easy fade.
The Broncos have given up the most points per game to tight ends
in the entire league, and Gerald Everett may be the Chargers defacto
top target against Denver this week. Everett, who had been quiet
for much of the season, has gone for at least 6.4 points per game
in each of the last five weeks – not surprisingly the result
of the Chargers running out of superior options. The floor has
been there over the last month plus, and the Broncos offer a real
opportunity for a strong ceiling. Everett is easily worth TE1
consideration in Week 17.
Austin Ekeler, once a lock-RB1, has failed to crack 7 points
in four of his last six games, and hasn’t broken the 20-point
mark since Week 9. He has what is easily a career low 3.7 rushing
average, and things are only getting more difficult as the Chargers
offense loses more pieces. Ekeler gets one break this week, facing
a Broncos team that has given up the 2nd most points to the RB
position. That includes allowing the 4th most catches to running
backs and the 2nd most receiving touchdowns. With little else
for the Broncos defense to focus on against the Chargers, it’s
entirely possible that – despite Denver’s weaknesses
- Ekeler is swarmed all day, meaning his fantasy owners shouldn’t
look to him as an RB1. Think of him as more of a mid-level RB2.
Stick has gone for respectable borderline QB1 numbers each of
his last two games, but this week it appears likely that he’ll
not just be without Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but also Josh
Palmer. With Quentin Johnston yet to show he’s ready for a major
target share and Stick likely needing to lean heavily on Gerald
Everett, it’s hard to imagine a whole lot of ceiling here, and
there’s definitely danger of a low floor.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Courtland Sutton has been the stalwart of a quite unexceptional
Broncos’ offense this season, pulling down 10 touchdowns. But
with him missing practice due to a concussion, it’s likely that
Jerry Jeudy will get a shot to be the go-to-guy for new Broncos
starting QB Jarrett Stidham this week. The Chargers have been
cooked by wide receivers this season, and so disappointed Jeudy
owners who have held him may have a rare day to talk about against
Los Angeles. He’s in the WR3 conversation if Sutton misses this
week, which appears likely.
The Chargers have also struggled against running backs, giving
up the 9th most points to the position, and with the Broncos being
significant favorites this week, there’s little reason not
to expect Javonte Williams to see 15-20 touches. Williams went
for 16.6 points against the Chargers just a few weeks ago, one
of just several notable performances this year. He’s got
a great chance to repeat the feat this week – look at him
as an RB2.
A Chargers defense that has been gutted by quarterbacks all season
(3rd most points allowed) and a Chargers offense gutted by injuries
could lead to opportunities for both big plays and looks in the
red zone. Recently, Aidan O’Connell went for 25.9 against
this Chargers team, and Los Angeles has surrendered nine different
20+ point performances to QB’s. But Stidham hasn’t
made much of a mark in his limited career opportunities, outside
of one game for the Raiders. Still, he’s worth QB2 consideration,
if you play in a multi-QB league, due to the match-up.
If Sutton defies the odds and plays this week, it’ll be
quite reasonable to look at him as a WR2 against a Chargers team
that has surrendered 21 touchdowns to receivers. Again, it appears
unlikely he’ll play, so be ready with an alternative option.
Chase would be a no brainer if not for his injury status. He
looks like he’ll be good to go this weekend, as he’s returned
to the practice field. Chase’s value to the team was demonstrated
quite clearly last week, as Jake Browning went from putting up
Joe Burrow numbers to throwing three picks sans Chase. Look to
Chase to return to his WR1 status this week in a critical game
for the Bengals against Kansas City.
Tee Higgins, meanwhile, appears to finally be back on track,
posting three different 15-point performances in the last five
games, and going for over 20 points in back-to-back games. The
ceiling was a bit higher with Chase banged up over the last couple
of weeks, but owners can look to Higgins as a WR2 this week.
As for Jake Browning, he’s going to be carried as far as
his receivers take him, and when Chase, Higgins and Boyd have
been on the field, he’s put up easy QB1 numbers. The Chiefs
present a tough challenge (5th toughest on QB’s), but the
thinness of the position and the high ceiling potential for Browning
with this elite WR trio makes him a solid QB option this week.
Running back Joe Mixon ranks just outside the top 12 in points
per game at his position, and is closing in on his third 300-touch
season of his career. Volume carries the day for Mixon and he’s
had at least 10 touches in every game this year, offering a solid
floor, with the potential for a strong ceiling if this game happens
to shootout.
On the Fence: N/A
Fade: N/A
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Rice has five consecutive games with at least 6 receptions, and
Pat Mahomes has targeted him 10 times per contest over that span.
Drawing a Bengals defense that has given up the 9th most points
to wide receivers makes it a pretty easy decision to go with Rice
as a WR2.
It looks likely that RB Isiah Pacheco will miss Week 17 due to
a concussion, meaning Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the next man up.
He missed Thursday practice, but it was an illness designation,
meaning he’ll probably suit up. He’s no lock to have an efficient
or productive day against a middling Bengals run defense, but
for those looking for an unexciting flex – which has generally
been Edwards-Helaire’s value during his career as a starter –
the Chiefs veteran is certainly a usable option.
Reed (toe/chest) did not play in Week 16 due to injury, but he’s
back at practice this week and looks to be trending toward a return
-- something than can’t be said for Christian Watson (hamstring)
and Dontayvion Wicks (ribs). Prior to the injuries, Reed was emerging
as Green Bay’s most consistent weapon, scoring a touchdown in
five of his last six games. He was kept out of the end zone the
last time the Packers played the Vikings, but he did log 83 yards
on four receptions. Assuming he’s back, Reed should find a spot
in your lineup as a WR3 with upside, particularly if neither Watson
nor Wicks are able to suit up.
While the Packers have struggled a bit recently, little of that
has been on Love, who has tossed 13 touchdown passes and just
one INT over his last six games. The Vikings are a tough defense,
though, and with their backs against the wall they should be fired
up to pick up the slack for an offense that’s dealing with
a lot of injuries. Minnesota had Love’s number back in October,
holding him to 229 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT in a game where Green
Bay scored a season-low 10 points. There’s no doubt Love
is playing better now than he was then, which provides him QB1
upside. Just know that we’re about to see the first-year
starter on the road in a hostile environment against a good defense,
so there’s uncertainty and downside as well.
Fade: N/A
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
With injuries aplenty and a change to a rookie QB, the stars
seem to be aligning for Chandler to see a heavy workload this
Sunday night. Chandler looks to have moved past Alexander Mattison,
or perhaps the team just isn’t sure about the latter’s ankle injury,
after the UNC product ran for 132 yards and a touchdown in Cincinnati.
He struggled last Sunday versus Detroit, managing just 17 yards
on eight carries, though he did score. The Packers are among the
league’s worst run defenses, ranking 30th at 135.9 yards per game,
which makes Chandler a quality RB2 with potential for more.
Like Joshua Dobbs before him, Nick Mullens fell victim to turning
the ball over too often, and now the team will turn to Hall to
start in Week 17. The rookie looked capable in brief action earlier
this year -- he suffered a concussion in his lone start and was
replaced by Dobbs -- but is largely an unknown commodity. One
needn’t go far back to see why Hall could hold some value
here, though, as the Packers were abysmal against the recent trio
of Tommy DeVito, Baker Mayfield, and Bryce Young, leading the
first two to win NFC Player of the Week honors, and the third
to set a career high in passing. To be clear, starting Hall would
be a massive gamble. He’s inexperienced and will be without
T.J. Hockenson (knee) and perhaps Jordan Addison (ankle), and
if he struggles the Vikings could reverse course and go to Mullens
with their playoff hopes on the line. If those others can move
the ball on the Packers, though, why can’t Hall?
