As I noted in last week's
Blitz, I planned on using this week's column to cover the individual
angle of weekly finishes after using last week's column to show
how often teams were susceptible to allowing huge games to certain
positions (or not). The intent is to give DFS owners a valuable
historical tool (one that obviously has merit since all the results
are from this season) while also providing redraft owners with a
handy reference tool in order to make more sound lineup decisions,
something all of us can use.
Below is a list of players - broken down first by position and
then by average weekly finish – that have been worthy of
starting consideration in fantasy or that I believe have a chance
of contributing in the coming weeks, at least given what we know
at the moment. Most of what you will see below is self-explanatory,
as each number represents where that player finished in a given
week among his peers at his position. Please note I have excluded
some players due to injuries or to a simple lack of use, but I
chose to keep every player at running back, wide receiver and
tight end who has posted at least one double-digit fantasy-point
effort this season.
Eli
Manning's extremely disappointing 2016 season is perhaps the
most surprising development at this position. Except for a three-touchdown
day against a Dallas defense that didn't know how good it was
in Week 1 and a second-half eruption by Odell
Beckham Jr. against a shorthanded Baltimore secondary in Week
6, Manning has struggled to be useful in fantasy, even in two-quarterback
leagues. Things should get easier over the second half of the
season for the Giants with games against Chicago, Cleveland, Pittsburgh
and Detroit, but Manning has disappointed in enough favorable
spots already that he is going to be nearly impossible to trust
in redraft leagues and especially in DFS. The exact same thing
could be said for Joe
Flacco, but he admittedly didn't enter the season with the
same expectations.
Every year, there seems to be at least one quarterback who is
abysmal in reality but more than acceptable in fantasy. This season's
top candidate for that dubious distinction is Blake Bortles, who
has attempted only 63 passes this season when his team is either
ahead or tied. This year's garbage-time king has parlayed his
poor play early in games into three top-eight finishes, which
is roughly about what owners probably thought they were getting
from a player expected to be a low-end QB1 at best this season.
The bad part of his line above is he hasn't finished any higher
than QB14 in any of his other four games. So the trick with him
is figuring out which games have the best chance of getting out
of hand early, which comes down to deciding which opponents are
built around a solid defense (and thus, will play closer games
and not give up garbage-time fantasy points). Unfortunately, Kansas
City, Houston (twice), Buffalo, Denver and Minnesota make up the
majority of the second-half schedule, so the odds are Bortles
will disappoint as much in fantasy going forward as he has in
reality over the first half the season.
For all the handwringing over Aaron Rodgers' slow start, he still
been the second-most consistent quarterback this year (first if
you exclude Brady and his suspension-shortened season thus far).
Only once has Rodgers finished outside the top 10 quarterbacks
and the "new" offense gives him the volume he has lacked
for most of his career.
Given the injuries to key members of his supporting cast, Philip
Rivers can be excused for not having the kind of season some
expected from him. With that said, he's been a top-10 quarterback
in three of the last five weeks, with the lone exceptions being
two games against Denver's vaunted defense. With upcoming games
against Tennessee, Miami, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Oakland and Cleveland,
I would not think twice about hitching my wagon to him the rest
of the way. Owners need only worry about a Week 11 bye and Week
12 date at Houston.
Is it a coincidence that Andy
Dalton has been a top-10 quarterback in each of the two weeks
Tyler
Eifert has been active? I don't think so. Does the combination
of last year's remarkable play pre-injury plus some solid fantasy
numbers this season put him on the verge of being one of the league's
better quarterbacks? Not really. Although not to the extent of
Bortles, Dalton runs more hot-and-cold than his numbers sometimes
suggest - last week's game in London versus Washington being a
prime example - but he does just enough as a runner and has two
of the best players at their position in A.J.
Green and Eifert to help him shine in fantasy, especially
in neutral or favorable matchups.
His disappointing Weeks 6 and 7 notwithstanding, Derek Carr probably
needs to be considered as a midrange QB1 moving forward. The combination
of Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree is enough to overwhelm most
defenses, and Carr is working behind arguably the best pass-blocking
line in the league. The defense is still leaky enough at the moment
that Carr is going to need to throw 40 times per game as well.
And at some point, his 17:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio has
to start speaking for itself. He's going to be difficult to use
in most leagues over the next three weeks (Denver, bye, Houston),
but I'm not really all that concerned about the second-half fades
that have dogged him over his first two seasons, so long as his
supporting cast remains intact.
Based solely off average rank, there are only five true RB1s
in fantasy at the moment, although LeSean McCoy's 51st place finish
in Week 7 during the Bills' (and McCoy's) ill-advised attempt
to push him through a hamstring injury is the only thing keeping
that number from being a bit higher. The fact that Theo Riddick
is the next-closest player to RB1 status absolutely boggles the
mind, but the cold hard truth is OC Jim Bob Cooter is using him
like a young Reggie Bush going back to his early days in New Orleans.
Riddick has yet to log more than 11 carries in a game (his 3.7
YPC speaks to the fact he still isn't a great runner), but he
has received at least 15 touches in every game since Week 1 thanks
to an average of 7.2 targets. His 34-267-4 line would be good
production for a starting fantasy receiver, so the fact he averages
nearly 40 yards per game rushing is a bonus. Riddick may end up
as a top-10 fantasy back this season, but his lack of consistency
is ultimately what should keep him out of the RB1 discussion.
I have long been one of Matt Forte's biggest fans and (probably)
biggest supporters, but if I still owned him in any league in
which I could trade him, I would be dealing him now. Despite getting
what seemed like a month's worth of vacation during the season,
the former Chicago Bear standout is on pace for 314 carries and
354 touches overall. It's OK if you don't want to buy into the
fact he's a 30-year-old back that will turn 31 next month and
has 2,699 career touches on his resume; his current workload is
just tempting fate when it comes to keeping him healthy for a
full season. The fact of the matter is that he isn't producing
in reality nearly as much is he's producing in fantasy. Forte
has averaged 3.3 YPC or less in five games this season, including
last week in what should have been a soft matchup in Cleveland.
He has one 20-plus yard run on 157 carries this season, while
backup Bilal Powell is averaging 7.1 YPC in limited duty. In no
way am I suggesting this job should be a timeshare, but there
is a lot working against Forte moving forward, most of which I've
already discussed. Upcoming matchups against Miami (twice), New
England (twice) and Los Angeles only increase my pessimism with
him, but his ability to hold up to the current workload would
be my biggest concern. I would not be surprised at all if Powell
is a fantasy playoff stud for the second straight season.
There's been a lot made about what James
White has done in Dion
Lewis' absence, but one top-12 week and one other top-24 week
makes him the essence of a flex option at best. By comparison,
Lewis posted five top-15 weeks (three top-six efforts) in seven
games before tearing his ACL last season. A legitimate case could
be made that Lewis will produce less this season given the strength
of the Patriots' supporting cast, but I'd argue there is a better
chance (a healthy) Lewis carries over most of his value from last
year and makes LeGarrette
Blount a flex option who works primarily in goal-line and
short-yardage situations.
Despite Cam Newton attempting seven runs in his second game back
from a concussion in Week 8, it has been the Jonathan Stewart
show at the goal line since his return. Stewart converted from
1 and 2 yards out versus Arizona, just as he did in Week 6 against
New Orleans, suggesting there may have been a fundamental change
in philosophy in regards to reducing the number of high-impact
collisions Newton has to absorb. While Stewart hasn't exactly
been overly efficient - his 4.1 YPC over the last two games is
typically the league average - the Panthers still possess an offense
more than capable of averaging multiple red zone trips per game.
If Stewart is going to get those looks going forward in addition
to the volume (44 carries over the last two games), then the top-10
finishes he's posted each of the last two weeks are probably going
to continue. With that said, it's impossible to know how long
Carolina will hold back Newton at the goal line, which makes Stewart
a risky investment, especially when one figures in his injury
history.
It says a lot about the current state of the running back position
when owners are looking forward to the return of James Starks.
In four games prior to tearing his meniscus, the 30-year-old ran
for 42 yards on 24 carries. By all indications, Starks is not
dealing with knee pain prior to the injury, so one has to assume
he was near full health through Week 5. If we can assume that
to be true, it means Eddie Lacy (5.4 YPC) was three times the
runner Starks (1.8) was over the first four games. (In case you
don't remember, Lacy was having a hard time living up to be an
RB2.) As a result, I'd be stunned if Green Bay doesn't go into
December with Ty Montgomery operating as the lead back, while
Randall Cobb, Don Jackson and fullback Aaron Ripkowski share the
remaining 8-10 touches out of the backfield.
Texans HC Bill O'Brien has praised Lamar Miller on a few occasions
this season, so owners can feel good about his job security going
forward. However, Miller is a prime example of how a running back
is used can often be as important as how often he is used. The
University of Miami (Fla.) product is heading into a bye week
on track for 306 carries and 350 touches overall, but his three
total touchdowns on 175 touches this year are highly disappointing
for a back who averaged a score once every 33.2 touches during
his final three seasons in Miami. The difference (in my opinion):
the Dolphins actually got him out in space. While every feature
back needs to have a healthy mix of inside and outside runs in
order to keep the defense honest, only 52 of Miler's 153 runs
have been charted as "wide left" or "wide right",
while 45 have been considered "middle" runs. Miller
may sport a 220-pound frame, but he's not a pounder nor is Houston
strong enough up the middle to allow him to make it work consistently.
And while his 22 catches through eight games is about right in
line with last year's reception total with the Dolphins, I have
been mystified by the lack of screen plays in the Texans' game
plan. Not only would screens help a struggling Brock Osweiler
and take some pressure off an average offensive line, but it would
allow Miller to get into the open field on a regular basis. For
a player who has broken a TD run of at least 85 yards in each
of the last two seasons (and scored on a 54-yard reception in
2015), it would seem like an obvious move to get him out in space.
Let's hope O'Brien turns a critical eye on himself as he and his
coaching staff self-scout during the team's open week.
How's that "Big Three" looking? Antonio
Brown has been a top-10 receiver four times this season, a
WR2 (as in ranked between 13 and 24) once and not even worthy
of a flex play (outside the top 48) twice. Odell Beckham has been
the overall WR1 once, a WR2 three times and borderline bench-worthy
three times. Julio
Jones been a top-10 receiver four times, a WR2 once and borderline
bench-worthy twice. Volatility is to be expected among all players
- even the elite ones - but this kind of unpredictability has
to be a bit unnerving for owners who placed their faith into these
players. A.J.
Green is the overall WR1 halfway through the season, but his
story is similar to the aforementioned three players. Amari
Cooper is the overall WR3 and he has arguably been the most
volatile of the bunch. T.Y.
Hilton? How about a WR55, WR52 and WR68 mixed in with three
top-six finishes? So who has been the epitome of consistency?
You guessed it … Mike
Evans.
Since opening the season with two top 10 finishes, Kelvin Benjamin
has been a liability in fantasy lineups just as often as he has
been a WR3-callber option. The targets haven't really dried up
- he's averaged nearly nine over the last four games - but he's
only scored once over that span after doing so three times in
the first two games. Matchups are somewhat to blame - Atlanta's
Desmond Trufant and Arizona's Patrick Peterson are among the game's
best cover corners - but owners probably expected more production
against Tampa Bay and New Orleans in Weeks 5 and 6 (albeit one
came with Derek Anderson as a starter).
Back in August, I'm pretty sure I was one of the few who didn't
have a lot of conviction about Allen Robinson or DeAndre Hopkins,
but I must admit I didn't see either player struggling to be an
every-week WR2, much less WR3. Garbage-time volume is about the
only thing that is keeping Robinson in WR3 territory, while Hopkins
has as many top-20 as sub-40 finishes (four apiece).
After some early offseason hype, there weren't a ton of people
left on the Michael Thomas bandwagon by the time the regular season
rolled around and probably fewer following Week 2. Although he
has finished inside the top 12 only once so far, he has been money
ever since he got his feet wet, usually settling in around WR2
territory. That's pretty impressive for a rookie, much less one
in an offense led by a quarterback who typically likes to spread
it around. Brandin Cooks actually hasn't really come close to
matching Thomas' level of consistency, while Willie Snead has
hovered around WR3 territory following a surprising start.
There are plenty of shocking ranks on the chart above, and one
of the many that stands out the most may be two receivers I like
going forward: Kenny Britt and Brandon Marshall. While Britt's
"arrival" as a consistent WR3 has come as something
of a pleasant surprise, Marshall's fade to the same territory
is a bit of a bummer. The fact Britt has actually been the more
consistent option with Case Keenum as his quarterback speaks to
just how much of a drag Ryan Fitzpatrick (not to mention the loss
of Eric Decker) has been on Marshall's fantasy stock. Britt should
benefit from a bit of a perfect storm going forward, as many of
the Rams' upcoming opponents have good or great run defenses and
very little in the way of cornerback talent capable of shutting
down a freakish athlete like Britt. Marshall has things slightly
more difficult, but he's already seen the best of the best when
it comes to individual matchups, more than holding his own against
the likes of Richard Sherman and Patrick Peterson. Positive touchdown
regression is also likely to find him sooner than later as well.
Much like Britt, Marshall will see his fair share of opponents
with solid run defenses and suspect pass defenses the rest of
the way. Targets haven't been the problem for him either (77),
but being able to do something with them has (34 catches). After
eight games, Marshall is on pace for a 68-1,080-4 line …
yeah, I'll take the over on that bet.
C.J. Fiedorowicz is probably flying under the radar of most owners
due to the struggles of Brock Osweiler, but it's a bad idea to
let him sit around on waivers much longer. While DeAndre Hopkins
and Will Fuller have seen their fortunes sink over the last month,
Fiedorowicz has been a rock-solid TE1 in four of his last five
games. Over that time, his average rank is 8.6 - a mark bettered
by only Jordan Reed. At a position where there is Rob Gronkowski,
Greg Olsen, Reed, Jimmy Graham and Tyler Eifert (when the last
two are healthy) and a bunch of low-upside, low-floor plays, Fiedorowicz
provides a high floor with a fairly decent ceiling. With at least
seven targets in four straight games, he's not going away anytime
soon.
Don't look now, but Vernon Davis is making his strongest bid
for fantasy relevancy in a few years. The return of Reed in Week
8 was supposed to stop Davis' recent mini-surge, but a third straight
top-10 finish is definitely noteworthy as Washington heads into
its bye week. Perhaps Davis is nothing more than an older Jack Doyle and loses his value once Reed settles back in for a few
games. But like the starter in Indianapolis (Dwayne Allen), Reed
is never too far away from his next injury, which makes Davis
worth owning in most leagues.
If only Baltimore would give Dennis Pitta more opportunities
near the goal line. While Pitta's four red-zone targets match
what Jarvis Landry has done inside the 20 so far, Pitta only has
one target inside the 10 and has yet to score a touchdown this
season. Now look at his line above. That's remarkable consistency
from a player not getting a six-point boost every so often. The
problem isn't really the Ravens ignoring Pitta, however, but rather
a lack of end-zone chances in general. Baltimore has scored a
disappointing 10 total touchdowns in seven games (for comparison's
sake, K Justin Tucker has made 18 field goals), meaning the Ravens
just don't have enough firepower to give players like Pitta more
touchdown opportunities.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.