As I enter my 16th year of writing this postseason column, I hope
I have helped some of you along the way supplement your regular-season
fantasy prize winnings. My focus will be mostly on small-slate DraftKings
Classic tournaments. I will also share the lineup I would use in
the FFPC Playoff Challenge.
The first part of this week's column will be devoted to those
owners who participate in any format in which it is best or required
to keep the players you draft for the duration of the postseason.
The second half of the column is for owners who play in leagues
in which you reset your lineup each week, such as a salary cap
setup like DFS. Regardless of which format(s) you choose to play
in, my goal over the next four articles will be to help each of
you through your decision-making process as you attempt to boost
your bottom line.
Multi-Week Leagues
Below you will find 14 playoff teams ranked in order of the (percentage)
odds I believe they have of making the Super Bowl. I will spend
a bit of time after that attempting to nail the bracket before
talking a little DFS.
1. Detroit (35%)
2. Kansas City (35%)
3. Philadelphia (35%)
4. Buffalo (30%)
5. Baltimore (30%)
6. Minnesota (20%)
7. Green Bay (4%)
8. Washington (4%)
9. LA Chargers (2%)
10. Tampa Bay (1%)
11. LA Rams (1%)
12. Green Bay (1%)
13. Houston (1%)
14. Pittsburgh (1%)
With that out of the way, let us next focus on my week-to-week
playoff projections and then the players I feel are realistic
alternatives for this four-week sprint to the finish:
AFC - Wildcard: Bills over Broncos, Ravens over
Steelers, Chargers over Texans NFC - Wildcard: Eagles over Packers, Commanders
over Buccaneers, Vikings over Rams
AFC - Divisional: Chiefs over Chargers, Bills
over Ravens NFC - Divisional: Lions over Commanders, Eagles
over Vikings
AFC - Conference Championship: Chiefs over Bills
NFC - Conference Championship: Eagles over Lions
Super Bowl: Chiefs vs. Eagles
The rankings below are for those readers in leagues that require
you to draft players this week and keep them for the duration
of the postseason. The number inside the parentheses refers to
how many games I expect that player/unit to play.
Below you will find my position-by-position projections. Please
note I have included DraftKings' dollar value for each player,
followed by his projected point total. Because I went into some
detail above, I will not spend a great deal of time explaining
each projection here - only some of the more notable ones. Each
position is sorted by my DraftKings' projected point total.
Key for quarterbacks, running
backs, receivers and tight ends: P Yds - Passing Yards P TD - Passing Touchdowns INT - Interceptions Ru Yds - Rushing Yards Ru TD - Rushing Touchdowns Rec Yds - Receiving Yards Rec TD - Receiving Touchdowns Rec - Receptions
There is a high degree of risk in putting much faith in a rookie
quarterback making his first-ever playoff start, but the Buccaneers
have been one of the best matchups for quarterbacks all season and
Daniels has more than proved he is capable of carrying the offense.
Commanders-Bucs should be one of the highest-scoring games of the
weekend, which almost certainly means Daniels will be heavily involved.
Furthermore, Tampa Bay's cornerback room is in bad shape, which
should lead OC Kliff Kingsbury to use more four-wide sets than usual.
Darnold figures to be relatively low-owned in DFS this week coming
off his worst game of the season. Fortunately for him, the Rams
are unlikely to use the same blitz-happy strategy Detroit did
and Darnold is unlikely to miss as many of the critical throws
he missed versus the Lions for a second straight week. It remains
to be seen how much the Eagles will let Hurts (concussion) run
this weekend, but the odds are that Philadelphia will probably
take its chances using him in the same way it did during the majority
of its 10-game winning streak: keep his pass attempts under 30
and ask him to convert a short-yardage scoring opportunity that
seems to happen almost every game for the Eagles.
It is probably foolish to read too much into how long it took
Tampa Bay to get going in Week 18, but the offense's struggles
against the Saints reinforced how reliant this team is on Mayfield.
That may not be good enough against a Washington offense that
is rolling right now. Also working against the Bucs is the likelihood
that Marshon Lattimore will resume his rivalry with Mike Evans.
Jackson was able to slay the demons against the Steelers in Week
16, but that does not make Pittsburgh a favorable matchup - especially
without Zay Flowers (knee). The two-time MVP has never rushed
for a touchdown versus the Steelers and has thrown at least one
interception in five of his six career regular-season starts against
them.
Herbert finished the season as hot as any quarterback did, averaging
303.7 passing yards per game while posting a 7:1 touchdown-to-interception
ratio against the Broncos, Patriots and Raiders. The Texans were
opportunistic in forcing turnovers for a long stretch of the season
but have recorded only one takeaway over their last three contests.
Although Houston forced 19 interceptions (the second-best mark
in the league), it also allowed 31 passing touchdowns. There is
a real chance my projection for Herbert is at least one touchdown
short. As such, he is probably my favorite low-cost option at
quarterback this week.
Of the remaining options (Nix, Stafford, Love, Wilson and Stroud),
Stafford may be the most appealing for the simple reason that
he threw for four scores when he last faced the Vikings in Week
18. The Rams had the element of surprise in that matchup (Minnesota
DC Brian Flores recently admitted he was caught off-guard by Puka
Nacua's activation a few hours before the game). However, the
bigger factor this time around may be the degree to which the
Rams are relying on the running game and their defense. (Stafford
has failed to throw for 200 yards in four of his last five and
has one touchdown pass in his last three outings.)
Even though the Packers have not allowed a running back to rush
for more than 78 yards since Week 7, it is not difficult to project
Barkley as the highest-scoring back for this weekend after he ran
for 2,005 yards in 16 games. It seems highly unlikely he will be
able to match his three-touchdown effort from the opener in Brazil
(24-109-2; 2-23-1) versus Green Bay, but his involvement in the
offense is such that he is a near-lock to handle the ball 25 times.
Henry is a bit of a dicey bet to have a big day against Pittsburgh
- especially with Zay Flowers' absence giving the defense one less
player to worry about - but volume should not be an issue with the
Steelers struggling on offense. King Henry is riding a three-game
streak of rushing for at least 100 yards and should get there in
any week if he gets at least 20 carries.
It is difficult to call any player priced at $7,000 a low-cost
option, but Irving is a relative bargain this week who costs more
than $1,000 less than the two backs ranked above him. Irving has
proved he can get it done against just about any defense for most
of the season. Making the rookie even more appealing is that Rachaad
White did not touch the ball on 18 offensive snaps last week.
Considering how important that game was to the Bucs, it is fair
to assume White may no longer be working in tandem with Irving.
The most likely player to boom out of the next group of three
(Jacobs, Jones and Williams) is Williams, if only because there
appears to be no ceiling to his volume. With Blake Corum (forearm)
done for the season, Williams could legitimately handle the ball
30 times if the Rams can play in a favorable game script. While
Jacobs should not fall too far behind Williams in terms of volume,
he is a poor bet to find the end zone (despite my projection)
after the Eagles gave up just five TDs to the running back position
in 2024.
Despite his 16 rushing (and 18 total) touchdowns this season,
Cook does not feel like the safest of bets this week. Dating back
to Week 10, Denver has yielded only two rushing touchdowns (both
to Gus Edwards) and five total scores to running backs. Jonathan
Taylor was the only back to do much versus the Broncos yardage-wise,
and he needed a 40-yarder (the one he fumbled out of the end zone)
to accomplish that.
My favorite DFS punts this week are easily Hill and Warren. Warren
is like Hill in that he is explosive enough to make the defense
pay if it makes a mistake. While they share big-play ability and
a similar role in their respective offenses, Warren has less touchdown
upside given the poor matchup but is a better bet for 10-plus
touches. Hill cannot be counted on for more than five touches
most weeks, but he should see more work than usual in the passing
game with Zay Flowers (knee) ruled out. He obviously becomes an
even better option in the unlikely event Baltimore finds itself
in negative game script.
After those two players, the last option I will consider is Ty
Johnson. The Broncos could put the Bills in enough third-and-long
situations that Johnson becomes a major factor. A touchdown from
him would be a huge bonus given how often Josh Allen and Cook
convert near the goal line, but it is at least notable that Johnson
managed to score four times on 59 touches during the regular season.
In some respects, McLaurin's season was not much different from
the previous four. His 117 targets were his fewest since his rookie
year. His 82 catches and 1,096 receiving yards were similar to what
he has done every season since 2019. What changed the most were
his contributions inside the red zone: 13 catches and 10 touchdowns
on 15 targets. McLaurin posted four duds - including Week 1 against
Tampa Bay - but he typically brought a 15-point floor to the table
every week. It would be mildly surprising if struggled this week
against a Buccaneers defense that will likely get stud S Antoine
Winfield Jr. back but is hurting at cornerback. Facing a defense
that surrendered at least 15.5 fantasy points to a receiver 15 times
- including five times over the last six games - McLaurin should
be poised to have a big day in what may be the highest-scoring game
of the weekend.
The Rams are not particularly soft against receivers, but Jefferson
rarely puts up a dud in two straight weeks. He seems unlikely
to be held out of the end zone for a second straight week after
Darnold went 0-for-4 targeting him inside the 10 a week ago. For
what it is worth, Jefferson caught eight of his nine targets for
115 yards in the first meeting. At this point, it is pointless
to bet against a healthy Nacua. Even in the Rams' run-heavy offense,
his floor over the last eight weeks has usually been about seven
catches and 90 yards. Nacua still does not see the kind of usage
near the goal line some might expect, but that is nitpicking a
receiver who has earned at least 13 targets in half of his last
eight contests.
DFS players should not find it too hard to complement McLaurin
with a handful of other receivers after the aforementioned ones,
all of whom have serious questions. Will Marshon Lattimore once
again be bad news for Evans? Can Collins discover his early-season
form or has his upside been stymied by the season-ending injuries
to Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs and the struggles of the offensive
line? Brown seems the most likely of the three to dominate this
weekend, but will the knee injury that has been bothering him
for months and a possible limited version of Jalen Hurts limit
his upside?
Unsurprisingly, the question marks at the position really begin
after the first six. Shakir was such a consistent option for the
first 15 weeks of the season but was strangely inefficient over
the last two. Does he bounce back against a Denver defense that
gave up a league-low 11 touchdowns to receivers? Will Buffalo
rediscover its early-season form against wideouts or will Sutton
be the latest in a line of receivers to torch a Buffalo defense
that allowed a league-high average of 46.9 fantasy points to the
position over the last five weeks? Will DeVonta Smith and Quentin
Johnston continue their late-season runs or is their luck about
to run out? How much longer can McMillan be expected to score
a touchdown every week?
There are enough cost-effective options at decent prices among
the first 14 wideouts (ending with Wicks) that DFS players should
not need to dig much deeper than that to find their three receiver
options and a flex. McMillan may be my favorite low-cost player
of the bunch considering the likelihood that he will be asked
to do more with Evans likely to be shadowed by Lattimore. Outside
of the first 14 players above, I want to make room for Bateman
in 15-20 percent of my lineups.
The absence of Zay Flowers only increases the likelihood that Andrews
will have another good week. While his six-game scoring streak is
bound to end at some point soon, it seems unlikely to stop against
a Pittsburgh defense that has been giving up a ton of production
to the position over the last five weeks. For all the same reasons
I am optimistic about Andrews, I would not hesitate to play Likely,
who could easily be the biggest beneficiary of Flowers' absence.
Especially at his price point, he could easily turn out to be the
best value of the week. I would make sure I have Andrews or Likely
in the majority of my lineups. Given how much I will likely be spending
at running back and receiver, Likely will probably be my highest-owned
player this week.
Dissly is my other favorite low-cost option at tight end, but
it would not surprise me if he is not owned in many spots considering
how recently he came off IR. With that said, the Texans were one
of seven teams to surrender at least eight receiving TDs to tight
ends. The opponent's top tight end has scored at least 7.9 fantasy
points in each of Houston's last eight contests, giving Dissly
a strong floor this week.
Freiermuth seems like the obvious play at tight end, especially
considering how well he finished the season with at least 11.2
fantasy points in five of his last six. Unfortunately, he scored
a total of eight fantasy points in his two meetings with Baltimore,
which makes me feel uneasy about my projection for him. Since
he will likely be the most-owned tight end on the board this week,
I would fade him. Outside of two early solid efforts, Hockenson
was not the fantasy force most were hoping for upon his return.
He has yet to score a touchdown, which has been a large reason
why he has failed to top 11.8 fantasy points in any of his last
six outings.
Key for defense/special teams units: PA - Points allowed TD - Defensive/return touchdowns TO - Total turnovers PA Bonus - Points allowed bonus for DraftKings
Defense / Special
Teams
Team
DK $
PA
Sacks
TD
TO
PA Bonus
DK
Chargers
$3,200
13
4
2
0
4
12.0
Ravens
$3,700
16
5
2
0
1
9.0
Buccaneers
$3,100
31
4
1
0
-1
5.0
Vikings
$3,000
24
3
1
0
0
5.0
Bills
$3,500
17
1
1
0
1
4.0
Packers
$2,600
31
3
1
0
-1
4.0
Commanders
$2,800
27
2
1
0
0
4.0
Rams
$2,900
28
3
1
0
-1
4.0
Eagles
$3,300
17
2
0
0
1
3.0
Steelers
$2,200
27
1
1
0
0
3.0
Texans
$2,700
27
2
0
0
0
2.0
Broncos
$2,400
27
1
0
0
0
1.0
FFPC Playoff Challenge
Due to popular demand, I am continuing another section to this
edition of the Road to the Super Bowl. The FFPC offers a yearly
playoff challenge in which managers must put together a 12-man
fantasy squad, selecting no more than one player from each NFL
team. Similar to the NFL.com Playoff Challenge in years
past, players accumulate points throughout their time in the playoffs
- be it for one game or four. Unlike the NFL Playoff Challenge,
there is no ability to change players once rosters are set and
locked for the first round of the postseason. Additionally, the
only time the multiplier kicks in is for the Super Bowl (2x).
Because I have expressed my thoughts on many players above, I
will just share the lineup I would use in this competition. Kicker
and defense/special teams are essentially throwaway positions
from the perspective that it makes no sense to use those spots
on players/units from the top Super Bowl contenders because they
are the lowest-scoring positions.
Doug Orth has written for FFToday since 2006 and joined the
Fantasy Points website before the start of the 2024 season. He is
also a highly successful high-stakes player who often appears as
a guest analyst on Sirius XM. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association. Please check out his new podcast with
JJ Wenner called "The All-Out Blitz."
