Not all industry drafts are created equal. The FFPC
Pros vs. Joes competition is a special one to be a part of,
in part because it attracts some of the best in the fantasy industry
but also because of what is at stake. Six industry analysts (Pros)
compete against six veteran (and usually highly successful) FFPC
players (Joes) in a free best-ball competition for the privilege
of gaining a free entry ($2,000 value) into the FFPC Main Event
the following season. New this year … the team that scores
the highest out of the seven drafts (six live and one slow) will
also win a beautiful
belt from Trophy Smack.
The biggest difference from a typical fantasy league is that
it is a winner-takes-all format. If ever there was a time to cite
the immortal Ricky Bobby, Pros vs. Joes is the ultimate "if
you ain't first, you're last" competition. Pros vs. Joes
is the brainchild of Fantasy Mojo's Darren Armani.
Below is a list of the competitors and the order in which we
drafted. Players without a site affiliation next to their name
are "Joes.”
1. John Rozek
2. Theo Gremminger - Fantasy Points
3. Nate Modisette
4. John Paulsen - 4for4
5. Nick Thompson
6. Darren Armani - FantasyMojo
7. Scott Schonewolf
8. Michael Nazarek
9. Eric Young
10. Doug Orth - FFToday
11. Todd Aron
12. Jim Coventry - RotoWire
The FFPC uses tight end premium scoring (1.5 points per reception),
so Brock Bowers and Trey McBride will go even earlier than they
usually do in typical PPR drafts. Most teams want to have at least
one tight end in place by around the sixth round.
Please click on the draft board link here
or above so you can follow along. (It beats having to type out
240 names and/or posting 12 20-man teams on this page.) This draft
- the last of six live drafts in this competition - was held on
Tuesday, July 29.
What I like: It is hard to argue against Bijan
Robinson at 1.01. There is also a very likely scenario in
which Josh Downs
(WR45) and Chris
Godwin (WR46) greatly outperform their draft slot. It is hard
to argue doubling up at tight end at the 4-5 turn with Sam
LaPorta (TE4) and T.J.
Hockenson (TE5) in a tight end-premium draft. With that duo
already in his pocket, Rozek could afford to take an upside swing
at 11.01 with Kyle
Pitts. Considering he waited until the 10th round to draft
a quarterback, he did well to come away with a duo like Caleb
Williams (QB14) and Bryce
Young (QB24). Rozek also did well to land spike-week potential
at receiver in the late rounds with Dont'e
Thornton (WR71) and Calvin
Austin (WR79) at 16.12 and 19.01, respectively.
What I did not like: While I like his first
four receivers in a vacuum, I would not want all of his primary
ones on the same team. Tyreek
Hill (WR12) has huge upside but is not a receiver I want to
bet on staying happy (or healthy?) all season. Tee
Higgins (WR13) has missed at least five games in each of the
last two seasons. Josh
Downs (WR45) also struggled with injuries since becoming a
pro. Chris Godwin
(WR46) will be entering the season at less than 100 percent and
may struggle to find his pre-injury form all year. The cost of
going TE-TE at the 4-5 turn was solidifying his RB2 slot. While
David Montgomery
(RB25) has greatly outperformed his draft slot in each of the
last two seasons, I worry about his upside now with former OC
Ben Johnson in Chicago and the offensive line beginning to fall
off a bit.
2. Theo Gremminger - Fantasy Points
What I like: Gremminger is one of the sharpest
minds in the industry and proved it in this draft. With the exception
of maybe one pick (Joe
Burrow at 4.11), he took the same player I would have drafted
in his spot with each of his first 14 selections. Considering
he waited until the third round to take his first running back
and 6.11 to take his second, I would argue he came away with one
clear RB1 in Chase
Brown (RB10) and a potentially high-end RB2 in RJ
Harvey (RB24) if he ends up with the Alvin
Kamara role in Denver's offense. Even if Harvey does not meet
expectations, the combination of Ja'Marr
Chase (WR1) and Ladd
McConkey (WR11) makes Gremminger's team hard to beat. DeVonta
Smith (WR23) will likely be one of the better flex options
in this league, while the pairing of Evan
Engram (TE8) and Tyler
Warren (TE12) should give his team more TE1 weeks than not.
Tyjae Spears
(RB39) and Braelon
Allen (RB51) were players I strongly considered with my picks
in the 10th and 12th rounds, respectively.
What I did not like: If we believe that Burrow can match or exceed
what he did last season, then Burrow is a great pick at 4.11.
With that said, it is exceedingly hard for a quarterback to hang
with the likes of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen when he is not
a huge threat with his legs. While I understand Burrow was not
going to make it back to him if he had passed on him at 4.11 and
5.02, will Burrow average more than three or four points per game
more than players such as Dak Prescott and Baker Mayfield? That
is the only way to justify taking Burrow more than two rounds
ahead of them. Gremminger's RB2 slot should be fine when all is
said and done, but Harvey and Jordan Mason (RB32) - both of whom
I like a lot this year - are two players who might be the 1B backs
in their real teams' offenses. Same with Tyjae Spears (RB39).
3. Nate Modisette
What I like: Modisette and Gremminger followed the same position
pattern through eight rounds. (First-round receiver, second-round
receiver, third-round running back and so on.) I like Gremminger's
version a bit more, but no one would be surprised if Justin Jefferson
(WR2) and A.J. Brown (WR10) end up being the best 1-2 punch at
receiver in the league. Breece Hall (RB11) could easily end up
performing like a first-round pick if he proves to the new coaching
staff in New York that he deserves to be the bell-cow. Modisette
likely picked up at least a round of value by selecting Jalen Hurts (QB4) at the 4.10 - more than a full round after Josh Allen
(3.06) and Lamar Jackson (3.07). Even if the Eagles pass just
a little bit more this year, Hurts stands a good chance of going
toe-to-toe with those players. Tight end depth also does not figure
to be a problem with Mark Andrews (TE9) and Hunter Henry (TE18)
being good values at 7.03 and 11.03, respectively.
What I did not like: While I was being a bit
nitpicky with Gremminger's RB2 options earlier, Modisette's RB2
options could be a problem for him. There is a real chance Tony
Pollard (RB23) loses significant touches to Tyjae
Spears this year, while Travis
Etienne (RB31) could be fighting with two backs for playing
time. (Modisette could have landed Spears if he passed on Keon
Coleman and Jayden
Higgins in Rounds 9 and 10, respectively.) Modisette's depth
at receiver after Jefferson, Brown and DK
Metcalf (WR24) is also lacking, as I have my doubts whether
Coleman and Higgins can pack much of a punch in his final flex
slot.
4. John Paulsen - 4for4
What I like: Paulsen is another one of the best minds in the
fantasy industry, so it comes as little surprise that I think
he nailed at least his first seven picks. He will regularly have
Chuba Hubbard (RB18) and Rome Odunze (WR35) occupying his two
flex spots. Not bad. Brock Bowers (TE1) should give him a significant
edge over at least 10 managers in the league at a position where
it is annually hard to get elite production. Paulsen also opted
to wait until the 10th round to draft his first quarterback in
Jordan Love (QB13), who has top 10 upside. He came back in the
next round to land Jared Goff, who is coming off a QB6 finish
in this format last season. Geno Smith (QB27) could end up being
a strong QB2 option in what should be a fast-paced offense and
Paulsen got him as his third quarterback.
What I did not like: Paulsen's Green Bay bias was on display
in the middle rounds, as he selected Jayden Reed (WR44), Matthew Golden (WR48) and Love in succession in Rounds 8-10. While Reed
and Golden should be fine WR4s, this competition rewards players
who can drastically outperform their draft slot. I'm not sure
either of the Green Bay receivers will do that. (He added Dontayvion Wicks in the 20th round for good measure.) While their talent
suggests that Travis Hunter (WR34) and Odunze should be solid
WR2s this year, I don't think Paulsen has the firepower at receiver
to make up for it if they fail to do so.
5. Nick Thompson
What I like: At least among the teams on the left side of the
board, Thompson may have left the draft with the best 1-2 punch
at running back in Saquon Barkley (RB2) and Jonathan Taylor (RB12).
While I would not say that his receiver group is imposing (Drake London, Mike Evans, Courtland Sutton and Chris Olave), each of
them stands a good chance of outperforming their draft slot (WR9,
WR22, WR25 and WR33, respectively). With his group of receivers,
he had the luxury of taking upside shots on Rashid Shaheed (WR55)
and Brandon Aiyuk (WR57).
What I did not like: As much as I like Thompson's running backs,
there is a decent chance neither Barkley nor Taylor makes it through
the season. If that happens, all he has left at running back is
Aaron Jones and Javonte Williams. In other words, he needs two
of the most utilized backs from last year to stay healthy all
season. Thompson probably should have taken more upside swings
at running back late. He also desperately needs Dalton Kincaid
(TE13) to be the kind of player he was as a rookie to keep up
with the rest of the league at tight end. Last but not least,
I question if Bo Nix (Q12) will need to do nearly as much in 2025
as he did as a rookie with Denver improving on defense and finding
some talent in the running game. While I believe Nix will still
finish as a QB1, I don't think he possesses the same ceiling as
last year.
6. Darren Armani - FantasyMojo
What I like: While it is not usually advisable to go with a one-team
mega stack, managers could do a lot worse than going heavy on
the 49ers this year. Christian McCaffrey (RB3) would have likely
been my pick at 1.10 had he lasted that long. George Kittle (TE3)
is the last likely option at tight end who is capable of going
to battle with Brock Bowers and Trey McBride. Armani doubled down
on San Francisco players in the 10th and 11th rounds with Brock Purdy (QB11) and McCaffrey handcuff Isaac Guerendo (WR41). Josh Allen (QB1) requires little analysis, although his selection to
this team gives Armani the possibility of having the best fantasy
player at three different positions (McCaffrey, Kittle and Allen).
What I did not like: The cost of going with Kittle and Allen
in the second and third rounds, respectively, is what it does
to a team everywhere else. Terry McLaurin (WR21), George Pickens
(WR26), Jaylen Waddle (WR32) and Jerry Jeudy (WR36) will probably
outperform their draft slots, but McLaurin will need good touchdown
luck for a second straight year to be a serviceable fantasy WR1.
Otherwise, I see three good WR2s and one decent WR3. While the
selection of Guerendo was a smart move to lock up San Francisco's
backfield, I am not sure Armani's RB2 combination of Jaylen Warren
(RB30) and Tyrone Tracy (RB33) is strong enough to keep him competitive
at that spot. Combined with his collection of likely WR2s, his
first three picks will need to have some of the best years of
their careers for Armani to win the league title.
7. Scott Schonewolf
What I like: Considering Jahmyr Gibbs (RB4) went no later than
1.04 in the three previous Pros vs. Joes drafts, Schonewolf had
to be thrilled that the Detroit running back fell into his lap
at 1.07. Brian Thomas Jr. (WR8) was someone I was considering
at 2.03 and Lamar Jackson (QB2) could have easily been my selection
at 3.10, so Schonewolf maximized the value with each of his first
three picks in my mind. The same could probably be said for Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR20), who might end up being the best receiver
selection of the fourth round. I am also a big fan of Stefon Diggs
(WR37) occupying the second flex spot in a two-flex league.
What I did not like: My two biggest concerns with Schonewolf's
team are what he did in the fifth and sixth rounds. Zay Flowers
(WR27) will probably finish higher than his draft slot and makes
sense as a stacking partner with Jackson, but the Ravens' top
receiver does not see a lot of usage in the red zone, which limits
his upside - especially in a format like this one. My other problem
is with Swift. Yes, I am aware of his history of finishing inside
the top 24 fantasy running backs, but where is the upside? Do
we believe that new HC Ben Johnson will feature him or even use
him much differently than when the two were together in Detroit
in 2022? I doubt he sees much work in the red zone either. Cam Skattebo (RB29), Zach Charbonnet (RB34) and Rachaad White (RB42)
were all fine upside swings after Round 7, but I don't think any
of them are RB2 material if Swift isn't what many expect him to
be this year. While Colston Loveland (TE16) was a great value
where he was selected, I would not want him as my TE1 in a tight
end premium league - at least not as a rookie in an otherwise
loaded offense. Loveland is a fine selection if the rest of the
team is bursting with high floors, but that is not the case here.
8. Michael Nazarek - FF Mastermind
What I like: This is one of my favorite teams so far, along with
Gremminger's and Paulsen's. This team possesses a lot of upside
and is built to withstand an injury at each position. It is hard
for me to find fault with any of Nazarek's first seven picks.
CeeDee Lamb (WR3) and Nico Collins (WR7) are as good of a 1-2
punch at receiver as there is in this league. I also cannot quibble
with his selections of Kyren Williams (RB13), James Conner (RB16)
or Alvin Kamara (RB19) in the next three rounds. All of them are
threats to deliver an RB1 performance in a week and finish as
a top 12 fantasy back at the end of the year. Baker Mayfield (QB7)
probably will not be able to repeat his overall QB3 finish from
last season, but I will not have any qualms about him being my
QB1 on a team where I spent the first 5-6 rounds loading up at
running back and receiver. I also very much like his upside swings
of Trey Benson (RB38), Elijah Arroyo (TE23), Jacory Croskey-Merritt
(RB67) and Keenan Allen (WR77). Each of those players was very
much in consideration with my picks in the same round they were
selected (if not before).
What I did not like:David Njoku (TE7) seems to be underappreciated
every year and this year is unlikely to be any different. With
that said, there are enough questions in Cleveland that I would
not take him in the sixth round over Evan Engram or Mark Andrews
- each of whom were selected a round later. With that said, he
did well to balance that risk with his choice of Dallas Goedert
(TE14) and Elijah Arroyo (TE23) in the ninth and 14th rounds,
respectively.
9. Eric Young
What I like: The strength of this team is obvious, as no other
manager can claim he walked out of this draft with three receivers
capable of being WR1s. Malik Nabers (WR4), Puka Nacua (WR6) and
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR15) all could attract 150-plus targets if
they can stay healthy. Jayden Daniels (QB3) is in the same class
as Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, while Tucker Kraft (TE11) could
easily end up being a steal at 8.04 in a tight end premium league.
Jauan Jennings (WR31) will likely be one of the better second
flex options in this league as well.
What I did not like: Young's running back room
is built on hopes and prayers. TreVeyon
Henderson (RB20) could soon become a fantasy RB1, but it is
a stretch to hope he can fill that role as a rookie on a fantasy
team - even for a manager going with a Zero RB approach. Brian
Robinson Jr. is a passable RB2, but his job security could
be on shaky ground if the hype around one of my favorite Day 3
picks (Croskey-Merritt) proves to be true. I suppose Bhayshul
Tuten (RB37) could emerge from the Jacksonville backfield
and be this year's Bucky
Irving, but the Jaguars' backfield could also easily end up
being a frustrating three-way committee all year long, too. (To
Young's credit, he locked up another third of that backfield two
rounds later with Tank
Bigsby (RB47) in the 12th.) Browns team owner Jimmy Haslam
was quoted earlier in the day (July 2) that he is optimistic that
Quinshon
Judkins (RB43) will play this season, which makes him a complete
wildcard. Even if Joe
Mixon (RB35) can get his ankle right before the season, he
also appears likely to open the season in a three-way committee.
At quarterback, it is likely Daniels or bust for Young. Cam
Ward (QB25) should be passable, but I would have liked to
see Young get a third quarterback just to be on the safe side.
10. Doug Orth - FFToday
What I like: For perhaps the first time in all of my years in
this competition, receiver should be a strength. It might end
up being a ridiculous strength. While I expect Amon-Ra St. Brown
(WR5) and Tetairoa McMillan (WR28) to start every week, the thought
of having four legit receivers with huge upside (Jameson Williams,
Khalil Shakir, Emeka Egbuka, and Michael Pittman Jr.) competing
for my two flex spots each week excites me. Trey McBride (TE2)
going at the 1.10 in a tight end premium league was also a nice
bonus. I fully expected Omarion Hampton (RB14) and Kenneth Walker
(RB15) to be off the board by the time I was on the clock at 3.10,
so it was a nice surprise to land both of them. At that point,
I did not think there was a chance McMillan would fall into my
lap at 5.10 (and I did not want to go with Detroit wideouts with
my first two receiver selections), so I was stunned when the rookie
fell in my lap.
Although I am not thrilled that Rhamondre Stevenson (RB44) is
my RB3, I consider him no worse than a middling flex who has unrealized
upside in what could be an offense that is more ground-and-pound
than what most people expect. He was the only remaining running
back whom I believed had much of a chance to serve as an RB3.
At that point, I shifted into filling out my running back room
with as many contingent upside running backs as I could get. Ray Davis (RB54), Will Shipley (RB55) and DJ Giddens (RB57) are all
running backs that only need something to happen to the starter
on the depth chart to be every-week fantasy options. I also plan
to draft a lot of Kyle Monangai (RB74), who is my bet to be this
year's Jamaal Williams (circa 2022, during his 17-touchdown season).
While I do not expect Kyler Murray (QB10) or J.J. McCarthy (QB17)
to set the world on fire, both possess the kind of running ability
I want with my fantasy quarterbacks. The same can be said for
Daniel Jones (QB29).
What I did not like: Although one of the hosts (Dave Terpoilli)
was highly complimentary of my team during the live show (and
that means something given his success in the FFPC format), this
team does have a potential fatal flaw. While most dynasty managers
fell over themselves to land Terrance Ferguson (TE33) in their
rookie drafts, I would have preferred him as a TE3 and not as
a TE2. Perhaps I should have doubled up with Darren Waller (TE36),
but I felt there was more value in taking what I thought was the
last decent QB3 option on the board in Jones. Considering how
things played out, the pick I regret the most is probably Shakir
… but only because I did not expect Egbuka and Pittman to
make it back to me. That 7.10 pick would have been a great time
to take Jake Ferguson or Tucker Kraft.
11. Todd Aron
What I like: Aron's first three selections at
running back were excellent. Regardless of the order he picked
them in, Aron muscled up with his selections of Ashton
Jeanty (RB5) and De'Von
Achane (RB8) as "safe" RB1 selections with massive upside.
In my opinion, J.K.
Dobbins (RB36) is one of the most mispriced running backs
in fantasy this summer. He should be a priority for Zero RB drafters
in all formats. I was desperately hoping Travis
Kelce (TE6) was going to survive the 5-6 turn to give my team
an enviable pair of 90-catch tight ends in McBride and Kelce,
but Aron snagged him four picks before my turn in the sixth round.
What I did not like: While I was generally a fan of Armani's
mega stack of 49ers earlier, Aron's mega stack of Chiefs struck
me in a much different way. I cannot justify selecting Xavier Worthy (WR16) before Davante Adams (WR17) and passing on someone
like Marvin Harrison to take a receiver in Rashee Rice (WR19)
who is likely to miss multiple games due to suspension. Patrick Mahomes (QB6) is a decent value in the sixth round, but the Kansas
City offense will have to revisit the days when Mahomes was throwing
to Tyreek Hill and Kelce in their primes for these draft selections
to pay off. I would struggle with having Ricky Pearsall (WR39)
or Deebo Samuel (WR40) as my second flex option in this format,
but one of them will likely be Aron's first flex option most weeks.
Aron also leaned heavily on aging veterans in this draft, grabbing
30-somethings in Kelce, Cooper Kupp (WR50), Austin Ekeler (RB45),
Zach Ertz (TE19) and Matthew Stafford (QB21).
12. Jim Coventry - RotoWire
What I like: It is difficult to gain any kind
of real edge picking at No. 12 each year, so balance typically
has to be the goal. From that perspective, it is hard to fault
anything Coventry did with his draft. I particularly like his
running back room, as Derrick
Henry (RB6) is a very good RB1 and Josh
Jacobs (RB7) is a solid RB2 at worst. There is a real chance
Kaleb Johnson
(RB21) takes over the Pittsburgh backfield at some point during
the season as well. Davante
Adams (WR17) could easily have at least one more WR1 season
left in him and DJ
Moore (WR18) is likely being undervalued due to a lot of speculation
about things that happened before new HC Ben Johnson arrived.
Calvin Ridley
(WR29) is a near-lock to outperform where he was taken in this
draft (6.01) and was another consideration for me at 6.03. Jake
Ferguson (TE10) is a great bet to bounce back, while the combination
of Dak Prescott
(QB8) and Justin
Fields (QB9) comes with a ton of "safe" upside.
What I did not like: Coventry is one of my best friends in the
industry and perhaps the best "real football guy" I
know. He is not going to care too much about the ADP from the
previous five Pros vs. Joes' drafts and it showed with his selections
of Henry and Jacobs. With that said, Henry went no earlier than
2.04 in any of the first five drafts and Jacobs went no earlier
than 2.07. It is difficult to ding him too much for anything else
that he did, although I don't see a path for Jonnu Smith (TE15)
to outperform Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry - each of whom
went a half-round or later than Smith.