Passing
Game Thoughts: The surprising AFC-leading Oakland Raiders
continue to put big numbers on the board offensively and they’re
led by their MVP candidate at quarterback, Derek Carr. Carr has
thrown for an impressive 11 touchdowns over his past five contests
while only throwing two interceptions over that stretch. It seems
that when Carr has time, he and his top targets, Amari Cooper
and Michael Crabtree, have been practically unstoppable. Unfortunately,
this week they’ll be heading to Kansas City to face a defense
that held them to a season-low 10 points back in Week 6. While
they only sacked Carr twice that day, the defense did an excellent
job of disrupting the passing game’s timing. To make matters
worse, the Kansas City defense has actually been playing better
as of late with the return of Justin Houston, their best pass
rusher. This doesn’t bode well for Carr who will need time
if he hopes to continue at the pace he’s been at as of late.
Still, given their high usage and status as the game’s top
duo as fantasy wide receivers, Cooper and Crabtree should remain
in play as low-end WR1’s in this contest. Cooper was by
far the Raiders’ stand out when these teams played in Week
6, having made 10 receptions for 129 yards. Crabtree was held
to a season worst two catches for just 10 yards, but he’s
actually been seeing more targets lately, which should mean a
big improvement from those numbers in this important rematch.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: The Raiders
running backs were held to just 56 rushing yards when they faced
the Chiefs earlier this season, which was at the time also the
Chiefs’ best day against the run. It was also a game where
the Raiders were without starting tailback Latavius Murray. Since
then, the Chiefs had a slightly better day against the Panthers,
but have also given up double digit fantasy points (standard scoring)
to the position in every other game this season. While Kansas
City has surprisingly only given up five total rushing touchdowns,
they have conceded seven games of 100 or more total rushing yards,
including this past week when the Falcons backs were able to rush
for 105 yards and a pair of touchdowns. With Murray producing
touchdowns as often as any back in the league since his return
in Week 7, he figures to play a significant role near the goal
line once again in this contest. Don’t expect a huge breakout
performance on the road in a hostile environment, but Murray should
touch the ball around 20 times again this week, which should give
him plenty of opportunity to get into the end zone.
Passing
Game Thoughts: You know things are bad for a passing game
when the stat line you have to throw out is that you’re
excited to see a quarterback has thrown a touchdown pass in three
straight contests. But after all, this is the Kansas City Chiefs
and it is Alex Smith. Smith remains one of the lowest ceiling
passers in all of fantasy football. High completion percentage?
Sure. Safe with the football? Sure. But fantasy relevant? Unless
you’re in a two-quarterback league and you’re scraping
the bottom of the barrel, no, not really. What he is doing, though,
is getting the ball to his tight end, Travis Kelce, who is now
the top tight end in all of fantasy football. Sure, the position
is a bit depleted this season but that’s still impressive.
Kelce has now gone over 100 receiving yards in three straight
contests - a number that cannot be overlooked. Kelce is an elite
option even against an Oakland defense that held him to just three
catches back in Week 6. The only other player who should be considered
for fantasy purposes is Tyreek Hill, who has been seeing a good
number of targets in the absence of Jeremy Maclin and always has
the possibility of taking a special teams return back for a score
or getting into the end zone on some sort of gadget play. Unfortunately
for him, Maclin is expected to be back on the field on Thursday
night, which will likely give him less looks from Smith. Maclin
himself is too much of a risk to bother playing after having missed
five straight contests. He also wasn’t very productive prior
to getting injured.
OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Running Game Thoughts: The Chiefs
continue to use running back Spencer Ware fairly heavily within
their offense, even getting him into the end zone with both a
rushing and a receiving touchdown in Week 13 against the Falcons.
Ware’s yardage numbers have been mediocre and chances near
the goal line have been few and far between, but with the position
as thin as it is this season, Ware should check in as a solid
RB1 in this matchup. Oakland has given up the third-most rushing
yards to opposing running backs this season, including three straight
100-yard games to the likes of the Texans, Panthers and Bills.
Ware had his best game of the season when these teams played back
in Week 6, rushing for 131 yards and a touchdown. Jamaal Charles
and - oddly enough - Dontati Poe, also scored rushing touchdowns
in that contest. If the Chiefs are smart, they will do their best
to keep the Raiders’ offense off the field, which will mean
a lot of short, efficient passes and a heavy dose of the running
game. Look for Ware to approach 25 touches in this contest, which
makes him one of the safest plays at the position beyond the obvious
stud running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Jets have decided to go with Bryce Petty
for the remaining four games of the season, thus likely ending
the run in New York for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fantasy owners should
beware that Petty has not been particularly good in his limited
playing time, most notably throwing for just 11 completions in
25 attempts this past week against a beatable Indianapolis defense.
That also included a touchdown, but two interceptions. What’s
perhaps most concerning is that Petty has not been looking in
the direction of Brandon Marshall or Quincy Enuna. In fact, his
favorite target has been Robby Anderson who was targeted 12 times
in this past week’s game, in comparison to just eight targets
for Marshall and two for Enunwa. This passing game is in absolute
shambles and even Marshall is a huge risk to trust in fantasy
right now as he continues to nurse nagging lower leg injuries
while playing with an inexperienced and not all that talented
quarterback. If you’re in a tough situation, the silver
lining is that Marshall will be up against one of the league’s
worst fantasy pass defenses, so there’s always the possibility
that he gets into the end zone.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: If there’s
any hope for fantasy production for the Jets for the rest of this
season, it has to come in the form of Matt Forte. But in order
for that to happen, the coaches need to start calling his number
more often. Forte has ran the ball 13 or fewer times in three
of his past four games, including a nine-carry game this past
week in the team’s blowout loss to the Colts. Thankfully
the Jets will be playing against one of the league’s worst
offenses, so a blowout loss isn’t likely to happen this
week, but the team trying to look toward the future might dictate
that we’ll see more of Bryce Petty throwing the ball rather
than Forte and Bilal Powell running the ball. Still, Forte will
be up against one of the league’s most miserable defenses
who just gave up a 100-plus yard, three touchdown performance
to Jordan Howard this past week. Forte should be in line for a
decent workload, but he remains risky as long as the Jets are
playing as poorly as they have been.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Colin Kaepernick had been one of the hottest
fantasy quarterbacks over the previous month of the season, but
all of the hope that he had given fantasy owners recently came
crashing to the ground this past week when he was benched early
in the game after attempting just five passes. Kaepernick was
simply not playing well, but the move to bench him seems to have
been temporary as the 49ers will go back to him this week in what,
at least on paper, appears to be a great matchup. Of course, it’ll
be hard to trust Kaepernick after the pain inflicted upon fantasy
owners a week ago, but Kaepernick does provide serious upside
and the Jets have been terrible at getting turnovers this season,
having forced just six interceptions on the year. Kaepernick is
playing for a potential starting gig, whether it be in San Francisco
or elsewhere, so he needs to shine down the stretch. This seems
like a great opportunity for him to put up some nice fantasy numbers.
However, despite the optimism on Kaepernick himself, none of the
San Francisco pass catchers should be considered anything more
than low upside / low floor, deep Flex options.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Running Game Thoughts: In a game
where he touched the ball 21 times, it would’ve been nice
to see Carlos Hyde get into the end zone, but fantasy owners will
have to settle for a “not-so-terrible” day this past
week in what could’ve very easily been a complete disaster
given the way the game unfolded. Hyde has been and should continue
to be the workhorse for the 49ers down the stretch as the team
trusts him to carry at least 80 percent of the workload most weeks.
The Jets run defense ranks right in the middle of the pack this
season, but they’ve been more susceptible to being run on
in recent weeks, having conceded an average of 111 rushing yards
per game over their past four contests. Hyde isn’t an RB1
given the offensive woes the team has seen this season, but he’s
a solid RB2 option this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan continues
to be one of the breakout fantasy stars this season, but his high-end
production has slowed down a bit in recent weeks as he has thrown
a total of just four touchdowns over his past three contests.
Still, even in his bad games, Ryan has been decent enough to not
cost his fantasy owners games, in large part because he has continued
to heavily target his top receiver, Julio Jones, who this past
week went over 100 yards receiving for the seventh time this season.
Jones and Ryan remain must-start fantasy options, but the team’s
other top two pass targets, Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel, are
still fairly risky. Gabriel seems to be passing Sanu in the pecking
order and a groin injury has kept Sanu sidelined during practice
this week, leading to speculation that Gabriel could see an uptick
in targets, thus making him a viable Flex option this week. Jones
has also missed practice this week, but expectations seem to be
that he will be on the field on Sunday. Still, pay attention to
the morning inactives and consider picking up Gabriel now, who
could be a great value if either Jones or Sanu – or both
– end up not playing.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Running Game Thoughts: Devonta Freeman
continues to produce big numbers and dominate the fantasy production
out of the Atlanta backfield and given his success, that doesn’t
appear like it’ll be slowing down anytime soon. Tevin Coleman
touched the ball 12 times this past week – his highest amount
since Week 3 – but he’s just not being used quite
enough near the goal line, or in the passing game, to be anything
other than a low-end Flex play at the moment. Freeman, on the
other hand, is once again a high-upside RB1 in this matchup against
the Rams. Los Angeles has given up an average of almost 140 rushing
yards per game over their past four contests.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jared Goff is not a great fantasy quarterback
yet, but if you’re looking for a time to take a chance on
him, this is it. Goff and the Rams have what has to be the best
possible matchup this week as they play at home against an Atlanta
secondary that has given up the most fantasy points to opposing
quarterbacks this season – an average of almost 20 points
per game to the position. While the Falcons have had a recent
stretch of at least keeping opposing quarterbacks in check, this
is still a great opportunity for Goff and his receivers to show
their stuff. What’s unfortunate is that we just have no
idea which Rams receiver is going to be the focal point of the
gameplan. From week to week, it could be any of a plethora of
mediocre fantasy options. The best bet seems to be receiver Kenny
Britt who has scored between 10 to 12 fantasy points (standard
scoring) in four of his past five contests. Tavon Austin, on the
other hand, seems to be falling out of favor in the offense and
missed this past week’s contest. Austin has not caught more
than four passes in a game since Week 7 and isn’t being
used in his “gadget” role as a runner nearly often
enough to be considered a serious fantasy option at this point.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: Los Angeles
running back Todd Gurley continues to be one of the biggest busts
in fantasy football this season and this past week’s dreadful
performance against the Patriots isn’t going to inspire
much confidence in fantasy owners going forward. Gurley rushed
for just 38 yards on 11 carries against New England and he has
now dipped down to being ranked outside the top 20 at his position
this season in standard scoring formats despite having played
and utilized heavily in every game. It’s been a tough season
for the whole Los Angeles offense, but if there’s hope for
a big game, it could be this week at home against the Falcons.
Atlanta has given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing
running backs this season, including 10 total rushing touchdowns.
What’s been a bit odd, though, is that Atlanta has been
particularly vulnerable to receiving backs this season. In fact,
at 779 yards, the Falcons have given up by far the most receiving
yards to opposing running backs – more than 150 yards more
than any other team in the league. With Benny Cunningham likely
out with a neck injury, Gurley could be in line for increased
usage in the passing game, which should give him a higher-than-usual
floor this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Redskins took a step back last week,
losing to the much-maligned Cardinals. Kirk Cousins had enjoyed
three consecutive turnover free weeks until he threw a pick and
lost a fumble. Cousins’ fantasy numbers weren’t terrible
as he did manage 271 yards passing, a passing touchdown and a
rushing touchdown, but the usual efficiency wasn’t there.
His completion percentage was in the fifties (56.8%) for just
the second time all season. Operating without Jordan Reed, Cousins
relied heavily on Pierre Garcon (7-78) as a safety valve and tried
to utilize Jamison Crowder more (8 targets, but only 3 receptions
albeit one for a touchdown), but it was clear he was missing his
top dog. The Eagles are fresh off a spanking by the Bengals where
Andy Dalton had his best game of the season. The Eagles are up
to 19 passing scores allowed this season so this is a great spot
for the Redskins to bounce back. Hopefully Jordan Reed’s
shoulder feels good enough for him to go. He got in limited practices
Wednesday and Thursday, but was in obvious discomfort. I would
list Reed on the more doubtful side of questionable. Vernon Davis
didn’t do much in Reed’s absence, but that was due
in large part to the Cardinals’ top ranked defense against
tight ends. Davis will be a viable streaming option this week
if Reed sits again.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Running Game Thoughts: Rob Kelley really isn’t that good.
He is completely matchup dependent. The Cardinals and previously
the Cowboys are bad matchups for Fat Rob and his numbers reflect
that. He torched the Packers because the Packers were a good matchup.
The Eagles are a decent matchup. They are decidedly average against
the run, allowing 4.1 yards per carry. Kelley is averaging 4.7
yards per carry and while I know it’s not fair to cherry
pick runs and remove them, his ypc is inflated by a handful of
big runs. Otherwise, he’s really just a pile pusher, which
is more beneficial for the Redskins than your fantasy team. With
that being said, I like Kelley’s chances to find the end
zone this week. Chris Thompson splits snaps with Kelley, but remains
off the fantasy radar.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Carson Wentz threw a lot of passes last
week. Sixty of them, to be exact. His previous high was 47. He
completed 36 of them, four more than his previous high of 32.
Wentz also threw for 300-plus yards for the third time. All of
these stats make it seem like Wentz had a great day at the office.
He did not. Wentz did throw for 308 yards and a touchdown but
he also threw three passes to the wrong team. The Eagles passing
attack looked lost without Jordan Matthews last week, who missed
the first game of his career with a sprained ankle. He was close
to playing, so I’m optimistic he can go this week, but Doug
Pederson also said JMatt was “fine” last week and
he ultimately missed the game. Remember folks, do not trust Doug
Pederson. But do trust the fact that Matthews returned to practice
Wednesday and was reportedly looking good on Thursday. He should
play. In the absence of Matthews, Zach Ertz led the team with
15 targets, catching 9 for 79 yards and a touchdown. He is clearly
the guy who benefits the most from a lack of JMatt. Recent practice
squad graduate, Paul Turner, caught 6 of 8 targets for 80 yards.
He was far more effective than drop machine, Dorial Green-Beckham
or why is he still in the NFL Nelson Agholor. This week could
be another game where the Eagles have to throw, but if Matthews
doesn’t play, it’s anyone’s guess as to who
reaps the benefits beyond Zach Ertz.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: “I will not listen to Doug Pederson.”
You can’t forget it. Last week it was Wendell Smallwood
that was going to be used heavily, which apparently means eight
carries for nineteen yards and zero targets. Darren Sproles wasn’t
much better, but at least he saw six targets and caught all of
them for 36 yards. Sproles also received a goal line carry, which
he converted. Ryan Mathews also returned to practice Wednesday
for the first time since spraining his MCL. He’s poised
to return to action Sunday, but his involvement will be impossible
to gauge. The Redskins are tied with the 49ers for allowing the
most rushing touchdowns this season with 17. Even so, Sproles
is the only Eagles back you can use and even he’s a question
mark with Pederson’s running back games.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Carson Palmer spent four weeks producing
no offense and then another four weeks being a turnover machine.
He finally played a complete game last week with exactly 300 yards
passing, three touchdowns, and no turnovers. While two of his
touchdown passes went to J.J. Nelson and Michael Floyd, the only
wide receiver of relevance in this passing game is Larry Fitzgerald.
Fitz hasn’t scored since Week 5 and Palmer completely ignores
him in the red zone, but he still leads the team in WR targets.
The Dolphins are by no means an imposing foe and they are especially
vulnerable underneath to slot receivers, where Fitz almost always
lines up. After getting shredded by Joe Flacco, things are looking
up for Palmer. He is a streaming option this week and his No.2
receiver, Fitz, remains a high end WR2.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Running Game Thoughts: Why did
I just refer to Fitz as the No.2 receiver? Because Palmer’s
No.1 receiver is David Johnson. Still the only running back in
the league with 100-plus yards from scrimmage in every game, DJ
is an absolute monster in every facet of the game. He has the
highest floor in fantasy football and the highest ceiling. He
is a legitimate threat to go 1000-1000 this season as well as
crack 20 touchdowns. DJ has caught no fewer than three passes
in every game this season and has caught seven or more in four
of his last five. He has a receiving touchdown in his last four
games and a rushing touchdown in three of those games. He is a
weekly RB1 and WR1 all wrapped in one. He doesn’t care about
the Dolphins defense and neither should you. You don’t need
me telling you how great David Johnson is.
Passing
Game Thoughts: If you can count on Ryan Tannehill for one
thing, it’s that you can never count on Ryan Tannehill.
Every so often, he likes to try and fool us into thinking he’s
actually a good quarterback. Then he goes out and throws three
picks in a blowout loss in Baltimore. Tannehill is terrible and
you are not using him against Arizona. Jarvis Landry saw 14 targets
last week and converted 11 of them into 87 yards. He’s okay
for PPR and still useless in standard. It was just Landry’s
second double digit reception game of the season. He has two touchdowns
on the year. DeVante Parker was a surprise active last week, but
he only caught three balls for 34 yards, although one was in the
end zone. We are now headed to Week 14 and the Cardinals, along
with the Broncos, still have yet to allow more touchdowns than
interceptions. Say no to all your Dolphins passing game players
this week.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Running Game Thoughts: Jay Ajayi
looked good against Baltimore’s top ranked run defense last
week. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry, but the ground game was
taken away when the Ravens went up 24-0 at halftime. Ajayi did
see seven targets out of the backfield, hauling in six of them
for 26 yards. At home this week, the Dolphins should be more competitive,
which will allow them to feed Ajayi. The Cardinals are stingy
against the run, but not in the red zone, where they have surrendered
fourteen rushing scores. Ajayi should eclipse 20 touches this
week and is a decent bet to score. He is still a RB1.
Passing
Game Thoughts: I could open this discussing Ben Roethlisberger
or Antonio Brown, but that’s no fun, right? How about Ladarius
Green! His snap count had been steadily increasing since he returned
from the PUP list and the explosion finally happened to the tune
of 6-110-1. He led the Steelers with 11 targets and appears to
be the answer to the “who is the non-AB guy” question.
The Bills defense is only as good as the opposing offense. I know
the Steelers struggle more on the road than they do at home, but
this offense is too dynamic to contain completely. The Steelers
may not put up the numbers the Raiders did last week, but Green
is officially a TE1. As for Ben & AB, you know what to do.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Running Game Thoughts: Since his return, Le’Veon Bell has
touched the ball no fewer than 20 times in every game. Last week,
he didn’t score, but he touched the ball a whopping 35 times.
His floor is almost as high as David Johnson’s. Speaking
of DJ, it’s almost unfathomable to think about it, but Bell
has just one fewer catch (63) than DJ (64), despite not playing
the first three weeks. He’s caught at least four passes
in every game he’s played. The Bills are no match for Le’Veon
Bell.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tyrod Taylor has been so good this year,
but there’s no denying he failed in a big spot last week.
From a fantasy perspective, Taylor has been heavily reliant on
his rushing numbers. He has six rushing touchdowns on the season
and averages 39.1 rushing yards per game. He needs to run to produce
since he does nothing through the air. In eight of his twelve
starts, Taylor has thrown for fewer than 200 yards, including
each of his last three. He doesn’t have a single 300-yard
passing day and has thrown multiple scores just three times. With
all that being said, I actually like Taylor to bounce back this
week in what should be another high scoring affair. The Steelers’
solid passing stats defensively hide the fact that they’ve
faced a lot of poor offenses with weak QBs. When they faced upper
tier opponents like the Cowboys or Patriots, they struggled. Obviously
Taylor is not on that level, but the point is that the Steelers
can be beaten. Sammy Watkins still has a broken bone in his foot,
but despite how concerning that may seem, he’s looked fine
on the field. He saw nine targets last week and while he only
caught three of them, the usage is what we’re concerned
about. Robert Woods returned to practice this week and looks poised
to play. I wouldn’t use him, but his presence helps Taylor.
In a game where the Bills should have to throw, Taylor and Watkins
have the potential for big days.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy only needs nine fingers to
carry your team to victory. Don’t believe me? Look no further
than last week’s 191-yard effort (130 on the ground, 61
in the air). Shady caught all seven of his targets last week and
needed only 17 carries to amass his lofty yardage total. Mike
Gillislee siphoned two of McCoy’s touchdowns, which is annoying,
but apparently is now to be somewhat expected. Offensive Coordinator
Anthony Lynn went on record to say that Gillislee’s role
is in the red zone. The Steelers boast one of the better run defenses
in the league, at just 92 yards per game, but they’ve allowed
10 rushing scores and allow 4.2 yards per carry. McCoy is an elite
option as usual and Gillislee is a viable flex play given the
Bills proficiency at running the football and his presumed red
zone opportunities.
Value Meter:
QB1: Tyrod Taylor (I’m probably in the minority here, but I think he’s going to surprise)
RB1: LeSean McCoy (high end)
WR3: Sammy Watkins (I think he performs better, but I will list
him for what he’s been)
Flex: Mike Gillislee
Bench: Justin Hunter
Passing
Game Thoughts: The second of four consecutive prime time
games for the team that leads the NFL in primetime games just
about every year comes on the road against the only team to beat
them this year. This is a far different Cowboys team than the
one that lost to the Giants opening day and a far different Dak
Prescott. Prescott threw 45 passes in that game and completed
only 25 of them in a scoreless game for him. Since then, he has
not topped 40 pass attempts and he has completed at least two
thirds of his throws in every game except Week 8 at Philly. While
Prescott’s subpar performance last week appears troublesome,
the fact is the Vikings still have a strong defense and that was
an ugly, low scoring affair. This week’s game against the
Giants should be far different. Helping the cause is a now clearly
healthy Dez Bryant. Early in the season, Cole Beasley was operating
as Prescott’s favorite target. It was only a matter of time
before Prescott figured things out with Bryant. If we exclude
Bryant’s invisibility at Cleveland (because they couldn’t
stop Ezekiel Elliott), he’s had at least 72 yards or a touchdown
in every game since his return from injury in Week 8. Bryant only
caught one ball for eight yards week 1, but, again, that was Prescott’s
first career start at a time when everyone was still pining for
Tony Romo. Last week, Jason Witten went catchless for the first
time since 2008. Witten owns the Giants. He will be more involved
this week and remains a viable streamer. The Giants have had a
very favorable schedule, which contributes to their only having
allowed 12 passing touchdowns on the season. Expect this game
to look much more like traditional Cowboys-Giants games with a
fair amount of points.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: Writing about Ezekiell Elliott is boring.
What can I say? He’s a top three back every week. He’s
matchup-proof. He’s a touchdown scoring machine. Zeke is
averaging 4.9 yards per carry and a touchdown per game. The Giants
are one of the best teams against the run, allowing just 3.6 yards
per carry, but that won’t matter this week. Elliott will
touch the ball no fewer than twenty times. His numbers will be
there as always.
Passing
Game Thoughts: In a game where the Giants trailed wire
to wire, Eli threw up 39 passes, managing a measly 195 yards,
which, if nothing else, is at least a one yard improvement on
his previous game. He managed two touchdowns, but last week really
was a low point on the season for Manning as he posted his lowest
yards per attempt average at 5.0 and failed to reach 200 yards
passing for the fourth time. He also threw two passes to the wrong
team. The Giants made a small push in the second half, which definitely
has nothing to do with the 15 targets Odell Beckham saw after
just one in the first half. Perhaps “one read Eli,”
as I call him for his inability to progress past his first option,
should consider starting the game looking for Beckham. Just a
thought. Even in spite of Manning’s poor play, Beckham racked
up 100 yards on ten grabs. If clueless Ben McAdoo stops running
red zone plays for the likes of Rashad Jennings and Will Tye,
maybe Beckham can return to the end zone this week. Sterling Shepard
scored last week, but he also only caught half of his eight targets
for 21 yards. You are hoping for a touchdown with Shepard. He
does have one in four of his last five games, but in that other
game, he didn’t catch a pass. The way to beat the Cowboys
is through the air as they’ve allowed 20 passing touchdowns
against just four interceptions. The Giants will have to throw
to stay in this one.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Running Game Thoughts: Also, the Giants have to throw because
they can’t run. Rashad Jennings may have caught a touchdown
on a screen last week, but he is done. He should not be on the
field. Paul Perkins actually showed some shiftiness last week
and certainly deserves a longer look. At this point, he and Jennings
are splitting carries just about evenly, which renders both of
them useless. The Cowboys are impossible to run against. Of course,
the inability to move the ball on the ground has never stopped
the Giants before. The Giants motto: “Even if it’s
broken, we’ll do it anyway!” But that doesn’t
mean you should. Avoid all Giants running backs and maybe, just
maybe, Shane Vereen can return in time to matter.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Every once in a while, Joe Flacco explodes.
It is not a trend. Despite his four touchdown performance last
week, this is still a very weak offense with a quarterback playing
some of the worst football of his career. Flacco has thrown an
interception in more games than he hasn’t. Last week, he
utilized Dennis Pitta more than he has all season. Pitta caught
nine of his eleven targets for 90 yards and his first two touchdowns
of the season. Mike Wallace and Steve Smith both had decent PPR
days with six grabs for 59 and 53 yards respectively. Meanwhile,
Breshad Perriman remains both the clear best receiver on the team
and just a deep man. The Ravens should feature him more, but they
won’t because they are averse to scoring points. Which is
why Flacco’s poor play is not entirely on him. The offense
is being treated as if this is 2008. The Patriots defense dominates
weak opponents and struggles against strong ones. It is not entirely
clear what we have in the Ravens, but I would lean towards weak
opponent. There is the added caveat that the Joe Flacco led Ravens
always play the Patriots tough. Since Flacco became the Ravens’
starter, the Ravens are 3-5 against the Patriots, but four of
their five losses have been by one score. If this is another tight
game, which I think it will be, I expect it to be more because
of the defenses than the offenses.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Running Game Thoughts: Another week, another timeshare between
Terrance West and Kenneth Dixon. Dixon continues to outplay West,
managing six more yards on four fewer carries, but it was West
who found the end zone twice. Predicting the split between these
two is not the problem – it’s guessing who will score.
Dixon’s work in the passing game gives him the PPR edge,
whereas West’s goal line preference gives him the standard
edge. I’d prefer to use neither if possible.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tom Brady is still Tom Brady, but he’s
always been a little less robot and a little more human against
the Ravens. Brady has six regular season matchups against the
Ravens in his career. He’s thrown six touchdowns across
those games. Obviously nothing that happened years ago should
have any relevance to Brady now, but we have a 10-year record
of Brady struggling against various incarnations of the Ravens.
Their most recent game, in 2013, saw Brady throw for just 172
yards. Brady came storming out of his suspension this season,
but his yards per attempt over his last two games has been 5.8
and 5.7, while failing to reach 300 yards in either. The loss
of Rob Gronkowski matters. Martellus Bennett is not the answer.
The only people it’s good for are Julian Edelman and Malcolm
Mitchell. Edelman has eight receptions in each of his last three
games and cracked 100 yards for the first time last week. His
PPR value has been restored. Mitchell played on 85 percent of
the snaps last week and continues to be integrated fully into
the offense. He has become a reliable option for Brady and your
fantasy team. The Ravens are still an elite run defense so the
Patriots, not being as stubborn as most other teams, will just
throw to beat them. I don’t expect a high scoring affair,
but Brady should be good for 250 and 2.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: LeGarrette Blount has been a true revelation
this season, but this is not the week you want to rely on him.
The Ravens are the top ranked run defense, allowing just 73.8
yards per game and having allowed only four rushing touchdowns
on the season. Dion Lewis is seeing the field more and James White
still receives snaps. Blount needs volume and with the competition
in the backfield combined with the Patriots likely needing to
throw to move the ball, this is shaping up as a poor spot for
Blount. Lewis, on the other hand, could be in line for his breakout
game. Call it a hunch, but I think Lewis is going to reward those
who start him this week in PPR.
Passing
Game Thoughts: All eyes are on the quarterback position
in Denver. Paxton Lynch got his second career start last week
and only completed half of his passes. To see him struggle that
much was a little shocking considering the targets he has at his
disposal. Trevor Siemian has shed his walking boot and started
to participate in practice so there is some hope they he will
be able to play this weekend. Denver worked out journeyman quarterbacks
Sean Renfroe and T.Y. Yates but chose not to sign anyone just
yet. That would seemingly indicate that the team is holding off
until they know the status of Siemian prior to adding any depth.
This certainly makes all Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders
owners a little uneasy. If Siemian is unable to play, both receivers
would fall down to being flex options. If Siemian continues to
progress and gets back onto the field, I’d feel a little
better about the entire offense’s chances of producing.
Thomas has consistently produced in PPR formats but falls short
more often than not in standard leagues. Sanders continues to
be a frustrating receiver to own this year. He has failed to score
double digit fantasy points in nine of twelve games played this
season despite ranking among the top ten in targets. If you feel
good about Siemian getting the nod, go ahead and use him in a
flex capacity.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: The struggles of the quarterback position
trickle down to the running game. Denver’s inability to
threaten defenses with the pass only gives them more reason to
stack up against the run which limits the fantasy potential of
anyone who lines up in the backfield. Kappri Bibbs’ high
ankle sprain has landed him in on the IR and in a walking boot.
Just like fantasy owners, the Broncos then looked for a replacement
on the waiver wire where they looked past former Bronco Ronnie
Hillman and chose Justin Forsett. The well traveled veteran running
back had his best years playing for HC Gary Kubiak so there is
renewed optimism that he can rekindle that success late in 2016
with Denver. Devontae Booker has been the top option since C.J.
Anderson went down and he remains the best fantasy play from this
backfield for Week 14 but he might be in danger of losing carries
if Kubiak decides to give his old flame another chance.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tennessee’s passing game has steadily
improved over the course of the season but they face their toughest
test yet against Denver. Rishard Mathews has blossomed into this
team’s most potent fantasy receiver but very few receivers
have fared well against the Broncos this year. In fact, only three
receivers in total have registered over 75 receiving yards against
Denver this season (Brandin Cooks in Week 10, A.J. Green in Week
3 and Kelvin Benjamin in Week 1). I don’t expect the Titans
to attack through the air much in this game with Murray’s
legs fresh off the bye week. Marcus Mariota will likely be asked
to lead a conservative game plan which will limit him as a fantasy
option this week. As a result, I recommend downgrading everyone
in the passing attack a notch or two for Week 14. Tight end Delanie
Walker remains a low end starter this week but he may not be your
best option depending on who else you may have available.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Running Game Thoughts: The bye week was much needed for DeMarco
Murray who lost carries to Derrick Henry in Week 12. Henry proved
that he could step in and be a true difference maker for fantasy
owners during the playoffs should anything happen to Murray. However,
it doesn’t look like the team will deviate from Murray’s
workhorse status coming off the bye week so Henry remains a handcuff
only option. And why would they want to change a recipe that has
them tied for the division lead coming into the season’s
final month? Murray has been at the heart of the Titans’
turnaround this season. His 1,043 rushing yards on the year trail
only Ezekiel Elliott. At this point only an injury would prevent
him from finishing as a top 5 fantasy running back this season.
Denver hasn’t given up a rushing touchdown since Week 9
(Latavius Murray) but they haven’t faced anyone nearly as
good as Murray since then either.
Passing
Game Thoughts: If you own Drew Brees then you should be
in a good place most weeks knowing he has a shot for 300 passing
yards and multiple touchdowns. However, if you own anyone else
in the Saints’ passing attack you probably find yourself
crossing your fingers that this is the week your guy goes off
to carry your squad. Although the volume is there for Brees, his
receivers rarely post elite numbers on a consistent basis. Brandin
Cooks hasn’t seen the end zone in three weeks and is averaging
less than five fantasy points. Ditto for Willie Snead. Michael
Thomas’ huge Week 12 is flanked by single digit outings
as well. Meanwhile, the backfield has contributed three receiving
touchdowns over the past three weeks. Again, this is fine for
Drew Brees but it lowers the floor for everyone involved in this
passing attack. I still prefer to roll out guys in premium passing
attacks and the match up with the Bucs shouldn’t be a deterrent
when making your roster decisions this week. Drew Brees has won
his last three games at Tampa Bay but the offense has only averaged
21 points in those games so keep your expectations in check for
Week 14.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Running Game Thoughts: Sharing is caring when it comes to the
New Orleans backfield. Tim Hightower and Mark Ingram have provided
fantasy owners with quality outings more often than not lately
and that shouldn’t change for Week 14. Tampa Bay has been
tough against the run but the Saints’ passing game not only
offers both running backs a few extra points but it forces the
defense to respect the entire field; opening up the running lanes
in the process. Ingram isn’t a lock for a ton of yards as
long as he’s splitting carries but has scored in his last
two outings against the Bucs. Hightower’s Week 14 projections
are a little tougher to gauge. He tends to have better games when
the entire offense is doing well and putting up points on the
board. That’s not typically what happens when these two
division rival square off.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Mike Evans has ripped up the NFL for most
of the season but he was held in check last week and I wouldn’t
be surprised if has another sub par performance this week. It
boils down to how improved you feel the Bucs passing game is compared
to the prior two seasons. In their two games last season, Jamies
Winston completed 32 of his 53 passes for a combined total of
389 yards and two scores. Mike Evans only played in one of last
season’s games versus the Saints and was held to 3 receptions
for 39 yards. The Saints have been markedly better against the
pass over the past month or so and they have had Winston’s
number to this point in his young career. You would have to play
in a pretty shallow league to make a strong case for benching
Mike Evans but don’t expect him to be the one carrying you
to a win this week. Adam Humphries is in the concussion protocol
and would be worth a look in deep formats if he is cleared in
time to practice by Friday and play against the Saints. Chances
are Russell Shepard will be the one to step up opposite of Evans
to be the better fantasy option. Shepard hasn’t done much
of anything in recent weeks and is only a flex option in deep
formats if Humphries isn’t cleared to play. Tight end Cameron
Brate is another player that could see a few more targets this
week. He has a lower floor than you’d like out of a starter
but he is coming off a nine target game in Week 13 against the
Bolts and figures to remain a part of the passing game with the
injuries at the wide receiver position.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Running Game Thoughts: Doug Martin owners have had it pretty
good since his return from injury. Tampa Bay has been giving muscle
hamster plenty of work, including goal line carries, to make him
one of the game’s better RB2 options. He has a great match
up going up against the fifth friendliest opponent for opposing
fantasy running backs. I really like his chances of scoring this
week with so few options in the passing game but he may end up
losing a few carries throughout the game. As I alluded to last
week, the Bucs will get Charles Sims back this week. Sims might
be a little slow out of the gate but he is a guy that the coaching
staff will want to work into the game on passing downs. That will
push Jacquizz Rodgers into a reserve role but he will need to
get a few carries in as well. We’ve seen how quickly Tampa’s
backfield situation can change in the past so it wouldn’t
be a surprise to see the coaching staff distribute the work amongst
all three backs in an effort to keep them healthy for this critical
stretch of the season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Injuries continue to wreak havoc on the
passing game in San Diego but that hasn’t stopped Philip
Rivers from throwing multiple touchdowns in five straight games.
Tyrell Williams has a labrum issue that will continue to prevent
him from being a go-to type of receiver down the stretch. You
can expect to see more games like last week where he was able
to score on a 40-yard touchdown but be a low volume player with
average touchdown upside. That’s too risky for my taste
at a time when fantasy playoffs implications are on the line so
steer clear. Travis Benjamin is back from a knee injury but he
hasn’t been able to get it going. I still think Benjamin
has the most fantasy upside in this offense but Rivers won’t
hesitate to use Dontrelle Inman or his tight ends to pick up the
slack if needed. Inman has two straight games with a touchdown
and has consistently been getting targets in the offense (29 targets
over the past four weeks) so he’s definitely a flex consideration
this week. Hunter Henry and Antonio Gates are splitting the targets
but Rivers likes to find his tight end once he gets into the red
zone. However, chasing touchdown upside will leave you on the
outside looking in more times than not so I would just find another
option for Week 14.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Running Game Thoughts: Melvin Gordon has gone over 100 total
yards of offense in five of his last six outings and continues
to inch towards David Johnson as the best fantasy running back
of the year. He’s seen a few less carries in recent weeks
but as long as he consistently makes up for it in the passing
game. Carolina is usually a tough opponent to run on but the loss
of Luke Kuechly (concussion) has severely weakened their front
seven. The team’s star middle linebacker was able to return
to practice this week but his status won’t be known until
later in the week. Kenneth Farrow will continue to serve as the
backup to Gordon but he seldom sees the field.
Passing
Game Thoughts: I really don’t understand what Carolina
is trying to do on offense these days. Cam Newton is lucky if
he completes half his passes and he isn’t being used as
a runner to offset his low volume of passing. Kelvin Benjamin
is one of the toughest players to defend, especially in jump ball
situations near the goal. Newton just doesn’t know how to
throw the lob passes and back shoulder throws as effectively as
other quarterbacks in this league. Benjamin is being used properly
and his stats will continue to suffer as a result. Carolina’s
red zone offense is laughable at times despite having one of the
toughest players to defend against in those situations. Over the
past three weeks, Newton has ranked outside the top 20 at his
position in fantasy points per game. The pieces are there for
the passing attack to thrive but the lack of execution is a glaring
concern. The Chargers have been solid against the pass this season
so I’m not too bullish on the Panthers’ passing game.
On a positive note, Ted Ginn Jr. has become the best thing going
for Newton’s fantasy lines. His ability to make plays down
the field has put him back on the fantasy map but he’s a
still a boom or bust option for deep leagues.
SD FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
SD FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
SD FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
SD FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: The one thing the Panthers are doing is
run the ball. Newton’s struggles in the passing game have
given HC Ron Rivera more reason to lean on Jonathan Stewart. The
defenses are keying in on the Panthers’ running game but
Stewart is getting plenty of chances near the goal. He needs them
too because he has been stuffed more often than not. Nonetheless,
he doesn’t have any competition for carries and the team’s
decision to restrict Newton’s rushing attempts only favors
Stewart’s weekly projections moving forward in Week 14.
So despite the lackluster yardage totals, fantasy owners should
show faith in his touchdown upside and plug him in at RB2 or Flex
depending on the roster size of your league.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Vikings are stuck in reverse and Sam
Bradford’s dinking and dunking would play better up at the
North Pole these days than in fantasy lineups. The high efficiency
passes have Bradford on pace to set a career high completion percentage.
Unfortunately, 13 passing touchdowns in 11 games leaves a lot
of meat on the bones for the pass catchers. Stefon Diggs catches
most of what is thrown at him, making him a PPR rock star. Even
Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph (both have had 15 receptions over
the past two weeks) have found a home in this short passing game.
Outside of PPR leagues, these guys just don’t offer much
upside for fantasy owners chasing championships. With the bye
weeks in the rearview mirror and Minnesota facing a tough Jacksonville
secondary I’d try to avoid starting anyone from the Vikings.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: The major news coming out this week was
that Adrian Peterson plans on returning this season but that isn’t
going to happen this week. The Vikings backfield is simply a black
hole for fantasy purposes. Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon are
splitting the work and neither has much to show for it. Asiata
is a touchdown or bust option on a team that has scored fewer
the 20 points in five of their past seven games. If the offense
was better, McKinnon would be in the RB2 discussion. Instead,
he often finds himself in the single digits for carries which
makes him virtually useless in non PPR formats with Asiata getting
the work near the goal. There isn’t anything to hang your
hat on for fantasy purposes now that bye weeks have ended. If
you are counting on either Asiata or McKinnon, your season is
probably already over.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Jaguars’ passing attack hasn’t
been good but they have faced some tough opponents over the last
few weeks. If the Broncos are the best against the pass, then
the Vikings are the second best so don’t expect the results
to differ much in Week 14. Prior to running up against the buzz
saw, the Jags’ signal caller had been on a five game streak
of throwing multiple touchdown passes. Blake Bortles, the tough
match ups have all but flat lined his fantasy value. Despite the
minimal yardage output he’s been better over the second
half of the season. Marqise Lee has emerged as the best secondary
option in the passing attack. That’s made him a serviceable
flex option throughout the bye weeks-especially with the team
playing without TE Julius Thomas (back) or Allen Hurns (hamstring).
Keep an eye on the practice reports this week to see if either
or both players are limited or ruled inactive again this week.
Lee would stand to see a few more catches considering the Vikings
would presumably look to lock down Allen Robinson and let their
defense handle the meager running game.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Running Game Thoughts: The Jacksonville backfield is like a kiddie
coaster. It just doesn’t offer much thrill and leaves you
wanting more every time. But the lines are short and it’s
something to do with the kids so you get on and make the best
of it. The Jags tried using T.J. Yeldon at less than full health
with Denard Robinson to carry the workload in Week 13. Then Robinson
hurt his ankle in the second half of the game and was unable to
return. It’s not good folks. Yeldon is still nursing his
injury but was able to practice in full this week so he looks
like the favorite to lead the charge against Minnesota’s
16th ranked rush defense (103.5 rushing yards allowed per game).
Chris Ivory (hamstring) was limited in practice and would likely
be playing at less than full health if he even suits up this weekend.
Robinson’s high ankle sprain will probably keep him sidelined,
leaving the door cracked open for Corey Grant to get some work.
Grant was an undrafted free agent signing in 2015 out of Auburn
with seven career rushing attempts. Yeldon will get as much volume
as he can handle but Ivory could still steal some carries if he
is healthy so try to avoid this situation unless you are desperate
to fill a RB slot.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Over the past three games DeAndre Hopkins
and Will Fuller have combined for 40 targets. During that same
span C.J. Fiedorowicz and Ryan Griffin have 41 targets. Where’s
Keyshawn Johnson when you need him? Houston isn’t running
the ball well and they aren’t using their best play makers
to compensate. Instead, they are trying to simplify the reads
for Osweiler by using the tight end as a crutch to limit his turnovers.
They have the defense to get away with this in real life but fantasy
owners don’t have that luxury at this time of year. Hopkins
isn’t going to see enough volume to make him anything more
than a flex option down the stretch despite his ridiculous abilities
to make plays down the field. Will Fuller’s return to the
lineup offers even more diversification to the passing game where
the tight ends have become the most reliable fantasy asset on
this team. The Colts have been gutted by the pass this year, but
I’m not sure if Brock Osweiler is capable of doing the same
for the Texans so start Texans at your own risk!
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: There are probably thousands of fantasy
owners that will never own Lamar Miller (ribs) again. He’s
been one disappointment after another and has been a limited participant
in practice this week. He was able to return to Week 13’s
game against the Packers so it isn’t a surprise to see the
Texans monitor his work leading up to a pivotal division game.
Still, he is definitely banged up and his owners need to weigh
the limitations to his fantasy ceiling that continue to prevent
him from being a sure-fire starter. Houston’s lackluster
passing game hasn’t helped open things up in the running
game. The bumps and bruises along the way have led to less work
in the passing game and his three touchdowns on the season is
ridiculously low for a player of his caliber on a team built around
the run. I have to wonder if the Texans will even give Miller
a chance to run the ball if they get it in close to the goal.
Furthermore, last week proved that he is only one good hit away
from being sent to the locker room. Jonathan Grimes and Alfred
Blue will be ready to take over if needed but neither is a trustworthy
option so long as Miller is active.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Hilton is the guy to own as this team continues
to drive towards the top of the division rankings. The Texans
have allowed an opposing receiver to go over the century mark
in three of the past four games and Hilton might be the toughest
of them all to defend against. That task only becomes harder for
Houston considering that Donte Moncreif has become the NFL’s
most consistent touchdown machine with scores in six of his seven
games played this year. The Colts are trending up and Andrew Luck
has the Texans’ number. He torched Houston in Week 6 on
the road to the tune of 353 yards passing and three touchdowns
and unless he should be in for a huge day again unless his offensive
line fails him. Dwayne Allen’s statement game against the
Jets on Monday night knocked me out of the playoffs in one league
and proved that he has premium upside in this offense. He wasn’t
healthy the last time these two teams met but Jack Doyle was able
to score in that game. Allen has taken a big step towards separating
himself from Doyle but this remains a two tight end committee
as far as fantasy points are concerned.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: You may not remember the exact moment,
but at some point in the middle of your fantasy football draft
this year, you had the chance to draft Frank Gore and passed.
He’s older but he remains one of the most consistent and
durable fantasy running backs around a league full of committees.
He enters week 14 with the ninth most rushing attempts playing
on a pass first team. Like most weeks, he isn’t the greatest
option against the Texans. There are plenty of risky options tempting
fantasy owners this week and Gore is the safe play to get a few
points and avoid being a total dud to lose you a key Week 14 game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton has thrown multiple touchdown
passes in each of his last three games against the Browns, a team
that has incredibly allowed 3 or more passing touchdowns in seven
different games this season. That sounds like a good matchup to
me, despite Dalton most likely missing his best weapon, A.J. Green,
once again this week. Brandon LaFell has been somewhat disappointing
this season, but stepped up big last week, and has at least been
a red-zone weapon all season. LaFell accounts for just over 35
percent of Dalton’s touchdown passes this season, and in
a matchup against a team that has allowed 28 passing scores the
odds look good for a score this week. Speaking of good matchups,
tight end Tyler Eifert has scored in back to back games against
two stout defenses and will face off against a Cleveland team
that has been one of the best matchups for opposing tight ends.
The Browns have allowed 9 touchdown receptions to tight ends.
It’s a good bet that the Cincinnati passing offense opens
up this week.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Running Game Thoughts: Jeremy Hill has been a very inefficient
runner this season, making his fantasy value from week to week
mostly contingent on volume and/or him finding the endzone. Luckily
Hill owners should get good results this week as the volume should
be there in a game the Bengals should control, and the Browns
have already allowed 15 total touchdowns to running backs (13
rushing). The Browns are allowing 140 rushing yards per game,
second worst in the league and have allowed over 100 rushing yards
in ten of their twelve games this season. Rex Burkhead has filled
in admirably replacing Gio Bernard and could even be an option
this week for those desperate at the running back position.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Robert Griffin has been named the starter
and will get a look over the last few weeks of the season to see
if he has any future with the Browns beyond 2016. It would be
hard to trust him being effective after such a long layoff, and
any fantasy team in the playoffs would likely have better options.
Only Terrell Pryor is an option in this passing game and even
he hasn’t scored a touchdown in his last six games. He is
still being targeted heavily and could rack up receptions in a
game where the Browns will likely be playing catch-up throughout.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Running Game Thoughts: The Browns constantly falling behind quickly
has made their ground game practically non-existent. Isaiah Crowell
started the season strongly but his lack of usage leaves him as
nothing but a desperation depth option in fantasy. During the
last three weeks, the Browns have passed the ball on nearly 75
percent of their snaps, an outrageous number for a team that has
trotted out Cody Kessler and Josh McCown during that time. There’s
not much reason to put much thought into this running game, as
there really is no running game in Cleveland.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matt Barkley has played reasonably well
during his two starts, but last week against the hapless San Francisco
49ers, he wasn’t asked to do much with Jordan Howard running
wild. This week he will be tested against a much improved Lions
defense that is coming off a game where they shut down Drew Brees
and the Saints. Over the last six weeks the Lions have held their
opponents to just 16.3 points per game, and they have not allowed
an opposing quarterback to finish in the top 12 over their last
five games. In other words, the odds are stacked against a Bears’
passing game featuring its third string quarterbacks and missing
its top two targets in Alshon Jeffrey and Zach Miller.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Running Game Thoughts: Jordan Howard’s five 100-yard rushing
games are tied for the most in the league. He’s been a true
workhorse since taking over as the feature back, and is the only
Bear that fantasy owners should feel safe putting in their starting
line-ups. In a past article I laid out the main drawback to Howard,
the Bears inability to sustain a running game after they fall
behind, by showing his first and second half yardage splits. So
if the Bears inevitably fall behind this week, his owners would
need to hold out hope that he sees some targets in the passing
game. The Bears’ defense has been particularly bad on the
road, which could cause a game-script that is unfavorable to Howard
racking up the rushing yards, but with as productive as he has
been generally it’s difficult not to recommend the rookie
runner.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford is an NFL MVP candidate,
but his inconsistency makes him merely a matchup dependant quarterback
in terms of fantasy football. The Bears have allowed QB1 production
in five straight road contests, so this should be a nice matchup
for the former Bulldog. Golden Tate started the year off slowly
as he took a backseat to newcomer Marvin Jones until the offense
went back to the short passing game which helped turn Stafford
around last season. Since Week 5, Tate has been a top 10 wide
receiver. Conversely Jones has been mostly useless as a fantasy
asset since then.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Running Game Thoughts: The Lions have not run for 100 yards in
ten straight games, illustrating that there really has not been
a running game at all since Ameer Abdullah went down with injury.
Theo Riddick has grabbed hold of the Lions’ starting running
back job, but he has shown little ability to gain yards on the
ground. As with Golden Tate, Riddick is peppered with short passes
in lieu of a running game. Zach Zenner, is the “big back”
option for the team, now that rookie Dwayne Washington is injured
again, but his usage has been minimal. The Bears have been decent
against the run (106.9 ypg), which makes it even harder to imagine
Detroit establishing a running game. Riddick’s value comes
in the passing game however so don’t be afraid to get him
in your lineup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Russell Wilson has largely struggled on
the road this season. In four of his six road games, he did not
even throw a single touchdown pass. However, in those other two
road games, against the Jets and the Pats, he did total 6 touchdown
passes, so it isn’t all bad. With the prospect of facing
a soft pass defense, while it’s hard to fully get behind
Wilson on the road in what may literally be the frozen tundra
of Lambeau Field, when the chips are down it would also be hard
to bet against him. The Packers have allowed 24 passing touchdowns
this season, and have struggled against opposing inside receivers
and have allowed the second most receiving yards to tight ends.
Therefore, Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham are more than valid options
this week as well.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: The Packers have played the run well this
season, allowing 92.9 rushing yards per game, but that average
has increased over the last couple of weeks as injuries have hit.
The return of Thomas Rawls from an ankle injury has revitalized
what was a struggling running game. The Hawks had averaged only
65 rushing yards per game over a six game stretch but that number
has vaulted to 173 yards per game over the last three games. Given
Wilson’s road struggles, and with Rodgers being red hot,
establishing the running game will likely be Seattle’s goal
heading into this contest.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Aaron Rodgers is on pace to shatter his
career high in pass attempts and has looked very sharp after a
slow start to the season, but will face a team that has only allowed
two top 10 quarterbacks this season. With no running game to speak
of Green Bay should continue to put the ball in the air, but will
meet more resistance this week even with Earl Thomas being lost
for the season. Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson have been the biggest
beneficiaries of the high volume passing game, but Adams could
see himself matched up often with Richard Sherman if the Packers
try and keep Jordy Nelson away from the shut down corner by lining
him up on the opposite side of the field.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Running Game Thoughts: James Starks played just seven snaps last
week after playing on close to 70 percent of the team’s
snaps since he returned from injury. If that’s a sign of
things to come, Starks is obviously now useless to fantasy owners.
The Packers have really not established a running game all season,
but worked former Seahawk Christine Michael into the mix last
week and this could be a nice set up for a “revenge game”.
Of course expecting that and any real production out of Michael
would be far too risky in what is likely the fantasy playoffs
for most owners. This is a backfield to avoid given the uncertainty
and the strength of the opponent.
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