Passing
Game Thoughts: Although the final score didn’t show
it because of some late game heroics from Russell Wilson, the
Seahawks offense fell back down a bit this past week against the
Redskins. Wilson still finished with nearly 300 yards through
the air and a pair of touchdowns, along with a season-high 77
rushing yards which giving him three straight 20-plus point fantasy
days, so it’s nice to know that he is still able to produce
big fantasy numbers even if things don’t go well early on.
Doug Baldwin continues to be the team’s top weapon in the
receiving game as he has now caught six or more passes in three
straight games along with two scores over that stretch. Young
wideout Paul Richardson continues to improve on his breakout season
as the number two option at wide receiver but he is no threat
– at least at the moment – to Baldwin.
With Patrick Peterson likely to play on him a decent bit this
week, Richardson is simply a dart-throw at WR3 or Flex with the
hope for a touchdown. Fantasy attention has been focused this
week on tight end Jimmy Graham, however, who missed practice early
in the week but returned to make a full practice on Wednesday,
ahead of Thursday’s contest against the Cardinals. Graham
struggled early on this season but has returned to form as a high-end
TE1 and one of the few players who has consistently produced fantasy
points at the position this season. He has scored double-digit
PPR fantasy points in six straight contests and should be locked
in as a TE1 again this week against an Arizona secondary that
has struggled to defend some of the league’s other talented,
highly-targeted tight ends.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Running Game Thoughts: The Seahawks seemed to finally be committed
to giving the ball to one ball carrier this past week when Eddie
Lacy got a decent bit of work early in the game against the Redskins.
However, an injury quickly put an end to that and the team returned
to being a nearly pass-exclusive offense for the remainder of
the game. With Lacy out for Thursday’s contest, Thomas Rawls
figures to slide in as the top back. The addition of Duane Brown
at left tackle saw immediate dividends in the passing game but
the running game remained weak, making Rawls a risky play against
a Cardinals defense that has held opposing running games to fewer
than 55 rushing yards in half of their games so far this season.
He’s a Flex option simply due to the shaky nature of the
running back position and bye weeks but don’t expect too
much. Fellow back C.J. Prosise is expected to be back on the field
after missing some time with an injury, which will further confuse
this already convoluted and unproductive Seattle backfield.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It certainly could have been worse for the
Arizona offense this past week with Drew Stanton making his first
start of the 2017 season against the 49ers but this matchup against
the Seahawks is an entirely different beast. Seattle continues
to be an elite defense against opposing passing games, having
given up either one or zero passing touchdowns in all but two
games this season. This obviously significantly hurts the upside
of any member of the Arizona passing game, especially the deep
pass specialists like John Brown and J.J. Nelson who have to rely
on Stanton to get them the ball over the top on Earl Thomas who
might be the best deep pass safety in the league. Larry Fitzgerald
might be the only player in this passing game who is safe and
that’s simply because of where he lines up – in the
slot – and the fact that the team has consistently targeted
him enough for him to produce double-digit PPR fantasy points
in all but two games so far in 2017.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Running Game Thoughts: A 4.3 yards
per carry average in a game isn’t anything spectacular but
when it’s paired with 37 attempts, suddenly fantasy owners
should be paying attention. Adrian Peterson was recently traded
for practically nothing by the Saints, but he seems to be reviving
his career in Arizona as this was the highest carry total he has
ever seen in a single game. Obviously a positive game script against
a terrible San Francisco run defense played a big part in that
but Peterson just looks good. With Stanton playing quarterback
against this elite secondary, look for the Cardinals to again
rely heavily on Peterson in what should be another high carry
total game for him, provided that the Cardinals don’t fall
behind on the scoreboard early. Even if they do, however, Peterson
should be a lock for at least 15 carries, which gives him a floor
that not many backs have. He’s still an RB2 but he does
have RB1 upside even in what is perceived to be a fairly difficult
matchup against the Seahawks.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The return of Tom Savage to the Texans starting
lineup certainly made us remember just how bad this offense was
prior to the breakout of rookie phenom Deshaun Watson. The once
explosive Houston passing game was held to just 219 yards and
one touchdown against Indianapolis, one of the league’s
worst defenses. While DeAndre Hopkins was able to keep fantasy
owners happy by scoring the passing game’s only touchdown
and catching six passes for 86 yards, it just seemed like he and
Savage were not on the same page as those six catches look pretty
disgusting when you consider that he was targeted a whopping 16
times. Hopkins would probably remain a strong WR1 even with Savage
behind center if he could somehow get that many targets in every
game, but that’s just not something that fantasy owners
can rely on. He’s more of a WR2 going forward but he should
continue to be the team’s most-targeted player which gives
him a fairly safe floor week to week.
Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for Will Fuller, whose
ridiculous scoring rate of seven touchdowns in four games came
to a screeching halt in Savage’s first start since Week
1. Fuller caught just two passes – which isn’t all
that rare considering that he had only caught 13 total passes
in those previous four games. The touchdown pace was in for a
natural regression but now we have to worry that the Houston offense
might not score more than about one touchdown per game. With that
type of production, there just isn’t likely to be enough
to go around for two mouths to be fed in this passing game and
thus Fuller falls down from being a WR2 to more of a low-end WR3/Flex
option. This is especially true in matchups like the one he plays
against the Rams, who have given up the seventh-fewest fantasy
points to opposing wide receivers and have not given up more than
one touchdown reception to wide receivers in any game this season.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Running Game Thoughts: The Houston offense likely won’t
be good enough for the remainder of the season that Lamar Miller
will have as many opportunities to score as he did when Watson
was playing, but there’s still hope for him, if for no other
reason than workload. Miller has touched the ball at least 13
times in every game so he’s been one of the safer players
at the position on a week to week basis, even though he’s
lacked the “boom” games than many fantasy owners look
for. Still, against a Los Angeles defense that has conceded the
second-most fantasy points to the position, Miller could be considered
a low-end RB1. The biggest concern is that it’s very possible
that the Rams – who are shockingly the NFL’s highest
scoring offense – could get out front this week at home,
thus forcing the Texans the pass the ball more than they’d
otherwise like to. Miller lacks the pass catching ability to give
fantasy owners huge fantasy production if the game script does
turn negative, however he hasn’t been completely useless
in the passing game so there’s still some hope even if that
does happen.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The incredible turnaround of Jared Goff
continued this past week as the second-year QB had perhaps the
best game of his professional career, throwing for 311 yards and
four touchdowns. While those numbers are obviously excellent,
it is worth considering that much of that production came simply
on horrible efforts from a Giants defense that seems to have completely
given up on the season. Nevertheless, the Rams are the highest
scoring team in the NFL this season – yes, you read that
right – and there should continue to be plenty of production
to go along so long as Goff doesn’t suffer a relapse back
into the player he was as a rookie.
The unfortunate thing is that while Goff himself is doing a great
job of producing fantasy numbers, he has simply not found a go-to
target that he looks for every week. Even in the thrashing this
past week, Goff did not target a single receiver more than five
times. These receivers are actually pretty good but they can’t
possibly continue to produce that type of per-target efficiency
on a weekly basis so that makes all of them prime candidates for
regression. At the moment, it seems as if Robert Woods is Goff’s
favorite as he has at least five targets in six straight contests.
Unfortunately, he has only scored two times this season –
both of them this past week against the Giants – so that
target share still doesn’t make him much more than a back-end
WR2. Watkins and Cupp are both Flex/WR3 options for desperate
teams but they’re shaky options against a bad Houston secondary
that has given up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing
wide receivers in 2017.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Running Game Thoughts: Todd Gurley just continues to roll on,
producing monster fantasy numbers on a weekly basis and he has
now surpassed Kareem Hunt as the highest-scoring fantasy running
back in most formats. Gurley’s horrendous 2016 season is
now a thing of the past as he has already cracked the 10 touchdown
mark in his first eight games after scoring six total touchdowns
last season. He’s also had four 100-yard rushing performances,
as his extremely high usage gives him one of the highest floors
of any player in the league. It is worth considering that the
Texans have been elite against opposing running backs this season
but they’ve also faced one of the easiest schedules in the
league so far when it comes to opposing running games. The two
top-level fantasy backs they’ve faced so far – Leonard
Fournette and Kareem Hunt – both went for over 100 rushing
yards against the Texans and there’s a good chance that
Gurley will become the third player to do so.
Passing
Game Thoughts: If Eli Manning couldn’t at least produce
some decent garbage-time fantasy numbers in a blowout loss to
the Rams this past week, it’s beginning to look like this
passing game is just a situation to avoid. Manning threw for 220
yards and a pair of touchdowns but he also turned the ball over
twice and never really looked comfortable. On a positive note,
it appears as if Sterling Shepard has established himself as the
top receiver in the passing game now that he’s back from
injury. The potentially high usage does make him a potential WR2,
so that’s something to keep an eye on. However, the most
interesting player in this passing game continues to be the young
tight end Evan Engram who has now scored in three straight games.
Engram is getting a heavy dosage of targets each week and should
be considered a TE1, even in difficult on-paper matchups like
the one he faces in Week 10. The 49ers have given up the fifth-fewest
fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season but Engram is
just too involved right now to consider benching him unless you
have another elite option at the position.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: While the Giants passing game has struggled,
their running game has quietly not been all that terrible, in
large part due to the combination of Orleans Darkwa and Wayne
Gallman who surprisingly broke the 100 total rushing yard mark
in a game where their team trailed most of the day. Shane Vereen
is no longer a fantasy consideration even in PPR formats when
his team is behind multiple scores, so we turn our attention to
Gallman and primarily Darkwa in what is the single best matchup
they could face.
The 49ers have been absolutely horrendous against opposing running
backs this season, giving up over two fantasy points per game
more than any other team. This past week, it was Adrian Peterson
who rushed for 159 yards and a touchdown against this San Francisco
defense on 37 carries. Needless to say, the Cardinals knew how
to attack this defense – do the same thing every other team
has, and walk away with a win. The Giants are pretty poorly coached
but even they should be able to follow the formula that has worked
for the other San Francisco opponents. Look for Darkwa and Gallman
to touch the ball around 30 times combined, with Darkwa likely
seeing around 20 touches to Gallman’s 10. That should be
enough to make Darkwa an RB2 with RB1 upside and Gallman could
even be used as a low-end Flex option.
Passing
Game Thoughts: He threw for nearly 300 yards and even ran
for a touchdown for the second time in three games, but C.J. Beathard
continues to be one of the least efficient, most clueless-looking
quarterbacks in the league. With Pierre Garcon on IR, this passing
game is a huge no-go for fantasy purposes. Marquise Goodwin could
always catch a long touchdown, but otherwise no one else is worth
consideration, especially with slot receiver Trent Taylor and
tight end George Kittle listed as out this week. Even Beathard
himself should not be used in two-quarterback formats because
with Jimmy Garoppolo waiting behind him, there’s a real
chance that he doesn’t even make it out of the game if he
continues to play poorly – especially if the score gets
out of hand. As bad as the Giants have played this season –
and it’s been terrible – even they should have a fairly
easy day stopping the passing game.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Running Game Thoughts: With the 49ers’ passing game being
as banged up and terrible to begin with as it is, they realistically
have one way to win this game – give the ball to Carlos
Hyde. It hasn’t worked in the way of getting them any wins
this season, but Kyle Shanahan has certainly had no problem giving
Hyde plenty of touches in most games this season, particularly
in the passing game where he has completely reinvented himself
as one of the better PPR backs in the league. Hyde had only caught
50 total passes in his first three seasons as a pro. Through nine
games in 2017, he’s already caught 40 in this new offense.
The 49ers’ receivers are so depleted that Hyde might legitimately
lead the team in targets, receptions and receiving yardage this
week – along with carries and rushing yardage. San Francisco
is an awful team but Hyde’s usage makes him an RB1 for fantasy
purposes.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Let the “Belichick coming off of a
bye” cliches flow freely. But what’s most important
is that Tom Brady, once again, looks like one of the true frontrunners
to win NFL MVP. The other likely MVP contender at the moment,
Carson Wentz, just got done obliterating this “elite”
Denver secondary, which simply got worn down in a game where their
own offense couldn’t move the ball. New England’s
defense isn’t on par with Philadelphia’s but there’s
still a great chance that the Denver offense struggles to move
the ball in this game, which would once again lead to some short
fields for an already hyper-efficient New England offense. While
Brady is an obvious QB1 in any matchup, the player who might be
in the best position of any player in fantasy football this week
is tight end Rob Gronkowski, who will face a Denver defense that
has given up the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing
tight ends this season. Brandin Cooks will see tough matchups
no matter where he lines up on the field, but he’s quick
enough – and Brady is good enough – that he has to
be considered at least a low-end WR1 in this contest. One other
note is that Chris Hogan is expected to miss this week’s
game, which could lead the way for Danny Amendola to see more
playing time, thus making him a sneaky WR3/Flex with upside.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Running Game Thoughts: The New England running game will always
be a bit of a crapshoot, but it’s beginning to clear up
at least a bit over these past few weeks as Dion Lewis and Mike
Gillislee have seemingly established themselves as the primary
ball carriers while James White is one of the better PPR backs
in the entire league, catching an average of over five passes
per game. Lewis is seeing significantly more snaps than Gillislee
and he’s been utilized near the goal line more regularly
as of late, but both players are vulturing one another’s
production, making them both very difficult to trust. The goal
line appeal of Lewis is something to consider, however, so he’s
a potential Flex option even against a very good Denver run defense
that has conceded just three rushing touchdowns all season. White,
on the other hand, shoots up into RB2 territory in PPR formats
as he is a threat to catch the ball many times no matter the matchup.
If the Patriots end up struggling to run the ball between the
tackles, as is very likely, we could see White dominate the snaps
and thus produce high-end RB2 numbers for PPR formats and even
Flex-worthy numbers in standard formats. Rex Burkhead did catch
seven passes this past week so there’s even a possibility
that he contributes in PPR formats but he’s probably the
player who’s least trustworthy for fantasy purposes at this
point, at least until we see a bit more consistency with his usage.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Trevor Siemian era may have finally
come to a merciful end but that doesn’t mean that the Broncos
are in a significantly better situation. There’s not a lot
to be excited about with Brock Osweiler who has been unceremoniously
dumped from both the Texans and Browns in 2017, and who threw
for just 208 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions this
past week against the Eagles. The New England defense is definitely
one that has been friendly to opposing passing games this season
but even this great matchup should not be enough to trust Osweiler
in your fantasy lineup. Emmanuel Sanders caught a nice 30-yard
reception from Osweiler early in that game but he appeared to
aggravate the ankle injury that caused him to miss time in previous
weeks.
Meanwhile, Demaryius Thomas (hamstring) is also banged up and
was limited Thursday, however he’s still optimistic that
he’ll be able to go against the Patriots after an eight
catch, 70-yard performance where he caught the only passing touchdown
from Osweiler. Both players will likely be in the lineup this
week and they’re both worth consideration as WR2’s,
but understand that there likely won’t be enough overall
production for both to be successful fantasy options. Thomas would
seem to be the better option given recent success but make sure
to pay close attention to inactives throughout the day and give
yourself a backup option like Danny Amendola, Kenny Stills or
Curtis Samuel who might need to slide into your starting lineup
if Thomas or Sanders is inactive on Sunday night.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Running Game Thoughts: With C.J. Anderson (ankle, illness) banged
up and questionable to play, look for the Broncos to lean even
more heavily on the full on the ugly committee approach that they
have been deploying throughout the season. Anderson will likely
see the most work but if the team falls behind on the scoreboard,
as is expected, then we could see increased playing time from
Devontae Booker who has established himself as the team’s
best pass catching back. The Patriots have been awful against
opposing running backs this season but the committee approach
just makes it extremely difficult to trust any of these backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Another week, another hyper efficient low
volume game for Drew Brees. Through eight games, Brees has just
two 300-yard passing games. To put that in perspective, he had
five at this point last year and six at this point in 2015. Brees
is not the elite fantasy QB he used to be, but he’s still
every bit a QB1 with a very high floor. He’s safe to pencil
in for about 250 yards and two touchdowns this week. He will do
it by throwing to super consistent Michael Thomas, who now has
at least eight targets and five receptions in all but one game.
His highest yardage total is 89 and he hasn’t scored since
weeks and 3 and 4, but he is a very safe and reliable WR2. Ted
Ginn has also been quite useful with 68 yards or a touchdown in
four straight games. He remains the clear number two in New Orleans
and a viable fantasy option. Coby Fleener is not seeing enough
volume to be worth starting and Willie Snead should be owned in
0% of leagues.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara are both legitimate
weekly RB2s. Kamara got the goal line score and the receiving
score last week, but Ingram still has the carries edge. Ingram’s
17 touches last week were his lowest since Week 3. He saw just
one target after seeing at least four in every game prior. Kamara
has at least three receptions in every game this season and is
coming off the best game of his young career with a season high
16 touches and 152 total yards. Since Week 5, he’s touched
the ball no fewer than 11 times per game. The Saints are running
more than ever and beating teams with their RB duo, making both
Ingram and Kamara strong fantasy plays.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Last week I thought Tyrod Taylor would be
viable QB1 streamer. Little did I know he would be the overall
QB2 on the week. Taylor threw for a season high 285 yards and
scored three touchdowns for the first time this year. Two of those
were in garbage time, but we take the points however they come.
Deonte Thompson led the team with 10 targets, catching seven for
81 yards and a touchdown. Zay Jones had his best game as a pro
with six catches on seven targets for 53 yards and a touchdown.
He also injured his knee in the game and may not play this week.
Jordan Matthews saw eight targets and caught six for 46 yards.
While those target counts look great, we must remember that Taylor
attempted 40 passes. Even with that number factored in, he still
averages just 29.5 attempts per game.
The Saints have been a sneaky good pass defense as Marshon Lattimore
has emerged into an elite level cornerback. Against a very good
offense, it is likely the Bills experience a significant negative
game script. It would surprise me if Taylor managed to throw the
ball less than 35 times. However, between Matthews, Thomson, and
Jones, there is no way of knowing what the target distribution
will look like. Then we have the likely debut of Kelvin Benjamin,
who sat out last week’s game due to having been with the
team all of two days. With just 11 days on the team, his knowledge
of the playbook will be limited. Benjamin can still produce at
less than optimal capacity, but on a low volume passing offense
with minimal time to prepare, he may be just a guy at first. His
talent makes him a startable option, but I would wait and see
if I could afford to.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy was unquestionably Week 9’s
biggest disappointment. The heavy workload the week before had
me concerned McCoy would get hurt. I overlooked the possibility
that he would remain healthy, but just be ineffective due to the
impossibly short turnaround time. I wouldn’t look too much
into last week’s flop. I am going to attribute it to Thursday
night football following a 33-touch game. With 10 days to rest
up, Shady should be back to his elite RB1 ways against New Orleans.
After catching at least five balls in all but one of the Bills
previous games, McCoy didn’t catch a pass and saw just one
target last week. I think it’s safe to say we’ve endured
his worst game of the season. McCoy’s three biggest rushing
games have all come at home, with the lone dud being against Denver
back when they were still a team that mattered. I’m confident
in a triple digit all-purpose yardage total for Shady this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After suffering what was a career threatening
injury, it looks like Teddy Bridgewater will be active this Sunday
for the first time since 2015. It’s a truly remarkable comeback
and I’m glad the league has Bridgewater back. He’s
not yet ready to start, though, as he will backup Case Keenum
in Washington. Keenum is coming off a start against the Browns
where he attempted the most passes he has all season with 43 and
had just his second multi-touchdown game of the season. He has
a tall task ahead of him on the road against one of the best secondaries
in the league featuring Josh Norman and Bashaud Breeland. Those
two will match up against what I believe to be the best WR duo
in the NFL in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. Diggs has played
six games with three WR1 performances and three duds. He had just
returned from a groin injury against the Browns and if there were
any lingering concerns regarding his health, the bye week almost
certainly cured them.
Thielen has caught five balls in every game this season and scored
his first touchdown against the Browns. He hasn’t topped
100 yards since Week 1, but he’s posted receiving totals
of 98, 96, and 98. The Vikings move Thielen around the formation
a lot so while he’ll see some of both Norman and Breeland,
he should spend enough time in the slot to continue his five reception
streak. Kyle Rudolph started really slow this season, but has
been coming on as of late. He’s caught five or six passes
in his last four games while averaging eight targets per game.
He is a safe, high floor option this week given his recent usage.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Running Game Thoughts: For reasons I will never fully understand,
NFL head coaches are averse to success. Latavius Murray has carried
the ball 19, 18, and 15 times in his last three games despite
being so clearly the inferior player to Jerick McKinnon. Murray
has had just one useful fantasy day all season (Week 7 against
the Ravens). Otherwise, it’s been weekly RB1 McKinnon stealing
the spotlight. Aside from Murray’s fluky big day, McKinnon
has been an elite fantasy option since Dalvin Cook went down,
posting over 100 yards from scrimmage in three games and scoring
a total of four touchdowns. He remains the passing down back and
has been more effective from the goal line as well. JMK is the
superior option and is once again a strong start against the Redskins.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Redskins pulled off the upset at Seattle
last week, but don’t look to Kirk Cousins and the passing
game as the reason why. Cousins posted 247 empty yards and only
Vernon Davis had a usable fantasy day with six catches on a team
high nine targets for 72 yards. With Jamison Crowder inactive
and Terrelle Pryor ineffective, Cousins leaned on the veteran
TE while sprinkling in a bit of everyone else. The Redskins WR
situation has gotten so bad that even Brian Quick caught three
passes. Pryor has been a mega bust, yet Josh Doctson has not come
into value even with increased snaps. With Xavier Rhodes and the
Vikings up next, the odds of a turnaround are unlikely. If the
Redskins win this game, it will be with defense.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Running Game Thoughts: It should be embarrassing for Jay Gruden
to run an offense the way he’s been doing so, but NFL analysts
are just as incompetent as head coaches that they have no idea
how much Gruden is ruining his team. The Redskins have a legitimate
Super Bowl roster that is wasting away because their coach is
horrendous at his job. All is forgiven when you win, but I will
not let Gruden off the hook for continuing to push Rob Kelley
ahead of Samaje Perine. Kelley continues to set football back
decades in his pathetic attempts to gain yards. Last week, he
managed a whopping 18 yards on 14 carries. Perine only carried
the ball twice (an improvement on the previous week’s zero)
and looked good both times. Unfortunately, on his third rushing
attempt, there was a bumble in the exchange between Cousins and
Perine, the ball fell to the ground and the Seahawks recovered.
That was the end of Perine. I’m sure Gruden will run Kelley
into the backs of his linemen another 15+ times this week as well.
You saw Kelley’s ceiling last week where he fell into the
end zone twice. Is that really the type of production you want
to bank on? Chris Thompson had a rare down game with just 31 total
yards. He should rebound this week as he is the best running back
on this team. He needs to touch the ball more than eight times,
though. While I am reasonably confident he will, I caution the
risk for poor usage is always there.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Browns and the 49ers appear to be on
a collision course for a winless season and a shot for the first
overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft. With San Francisco acquiring
Jimmy Garoppolo before the trade deadline - a player coveted by
many teams, including the Browns, it looks highly likely that
Cleveland will use their first round pick on one of the many quarterbacks
entering the league next year.
Rookie DeShone Kizer now has eight remaining games in 2017 to
prove to head coach Hue Jackson and the Cleveland front office
that he can be the QB of the future. It will be a tough task for
Kizer, as six of his eight remaining opponents rank in the top-10
in pass defense, including No.1 ranked Pittsburgh in Week 17.
Interceptions and poor decisions with the football have plagued
Kizer this season, with the former Notre Dame star tied with Cam
Newton for most interceptions at 11. With 11 interceptions on
213 pass attempts, Kizer is averaging one pick for every 19 pass
attempts, while managing only three passing touchdowns on the
year.
The Lions’ opportunistic pass defense that ranks fourth
in interceptions forced should have a field day with Kizer on
Sunday, especially in the likely event of a negative game script
in which Kizer is forced to pass exclusively in the second half
with the Browns trailing.
Not surprisingly, the Browns trail only the Bears in fewest points
scored by wide receivers, with no wide receiving managing a 100-yard
game to date, and no wide receiver has caught a touchdown since
Kenny Britt in Week 3. The pending return of Josh Gordon from
suspension could give this unit a shot in the arm, but unless
Kizer makes a giant leap forward in his reads and accuracy, it
won’t matter who is lining up at WR.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: Isaiah Crowell comes out of the bye fresh
and ready to build off his best game of the year against the Vikings
in Week 8. Crow scored his first rushing touchdown on 11 carries
for 64 yards, while adding 54 yards on four receptions. After
posting three consecutive double-digit point performances from
Week 3 to Week 5, Duke Johnson has been held in check by opposing
defenses, and his use in the passing game has been non-existent.
The recipe for beating the Lions begins with a focus on the run
game, as the Lions rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to opposing
backs. The three teams that beat the Lions this year used a run-heavy
approach, with Le’Veon Bell, Mark Ingram, and Devonta Freeman
all rushing more than 20 times against Detroit.
Hue Jackson will no doubt focus on establishing the run in the
first half of the game with Crowell working in as the first and
second down back and Johnson getting the third down and change
of pace carries. But game script could become an issue for limiting
Crowell’s carries as the Browns will likely need to chase
points in the second half. The touchdown upside makes Crow a decent
No.2 RB and Johnson’s threat as a top receiving option for
Kizer makes him a strong flex play.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford has quietly put together
a solid fantasy season as the No.9 ranked quarterback in fantasy
over the first nine weeks of the season. Although the flashy 700-plus
passing attempt seasons of his early career are a thing of the
past, Stafford’s ability to limit mistakes and spread the
ball around to all of his weapons has made him a solid real life
and fantasy player.
The former first overall pick in the 2009 draft is on pace for
just under 4500 yards and 28 passing touchdowns, and a career-best
eight interceptions. Stafford should find it reasonably easy to
move the ball this week at home against a Cleveland Browns team
that has allowed the 10th-most points to opposing quarterbacks.
Five of eight opposing QBs scored at least 20 points against Cleveland
this season, including Andy Dalton, who threw for 286 yards and
four touchdowns against the Browns Week 4.
Wide receiver Marvin Jones has been a revelation for fantasy
owners of late, with a touchdown and/or 100 yards in each of his
last three games. After a pedestrian 13% target share in his first
four games, Jones’ share jumped up to 27% over the last
four contests as Matthew Stafford continues to look his way on
the outside.
Although the Browns are very beatable in the passing game, the
one area in which they have excelled is limiting outside wide
receivers with cornerback Jason McCourty, which could derail Jones’
recent surge. Jones is still a must start, and his touchdown upside
makes him a solid No.2 WR, but it would make sense for the Lions
and offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter to attack the middle
of the field with slot receiver Golden Tate and Theo Riddick out
of the backfield.
It would also make sense to utilize the tight end against a Browns
defense that trails only the New York Giants and Denver Broncos
in points allowed to the TE position. Despite this fact, starting
brick hands, Eric Ebron is a risky move, and Daniel Fells doesn’t
get enough snaps to justify a start in anything but the deepest
of 14-team leagues.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Running Game Thoughts: A common misconception among fantasy owners
is the perceived struggles of the Cleveland Browns against the
run, based primarily on the fact that the only the 49ers allowed
more points to opposing RB’s last season. But the one area
in which the 2017 Browns have made strides in the right direction
is in stopping the run, allowing just three rushing touchdowns
on the season and the 5th-fewest rushing yards.
Considering the Browns’ stout run defense and the struggles
the Lions have had running the ball this season with Ameer Abdullah,
Theo Riddick, Dwayne Washington, and Zach Zenner combining for
the 6th-fewest rush yards, expecting a rushing touchdown and yardage
on the ground from any Detroit ball carrier is not likely.
Abdullah scored his second rushing touchdown of the season last
week in a blowout win over Green Bay, but he quickly took up residence
in Jim Caldwell’s doghouse after two fumbles (one lost),
including a red zone attempt that ended with the Lions settling
for a field goal. It remains to be seen if Caldwell will look
past Abdullah’s fumbles and give him a shot to redeem himself
against the Browns, or perhaps Caldwell gives Dwayne Washington
and Theo Riddick more work. Regardless of who carries the ball,
no running back in Detroit carries much value unless the offensive
line starts blocking better. According to FootballOutsiders.com,
the Lions rank dead last in run blocking as a unit with 31% of
all run plays stuffed at the line of scrimmage or in the backfield.
Hopefully, the return of starting left tackle Taylor Decker this
week will help improve the play of the offensive line and open
holes for Abdullah and Riddick.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Aaron Rodgers-less Packer passing offense
showed some signs of life in last week’s 30-17 loss against
Detroit, albeit a big chunk of Brett Hundley’s yards and
fantasy points came in garbage time. A knock against Hundley in
college was his propensity to hang onto the ball too long and
take unnecessary sacks, which appears to have carried over into
his NFL career. Hundley has been sacked eight times in three games
(97 pass attempts), which is the same amount as Drew Brees and
Philip Rivers, two quarterbacks who have dropped back to pass
nearly three times more than the former UCLA Bruin.
In addition to holding onto the ball too long, injuries to the
Packers offensive line are a part of the reason why Green Bay
has allowed a large number of sacks in 2017. Those injury woes
continued Week 9 with the loss of starting right tackle Bryan
Bulaga for the rest of the 2017 season and beyond with a torn
ACL.
Making smart plays with the ball and a successful run game that
will allow play-action passing is a key to success for Green Bay
this week against the Bears, a team that ranks seventh in total
defense under defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Aside from a blowout
loss to the Packers and Aaron Rodgers in Week 4 in which Rodgers
threw for four touchdowns, the Chicago secondary has not allowed
more than one passing touchdown in a game, while holding Cam Newton,
Joe Flacco, and Drew Brees touchdown-less in their last three
matchups.
The loss of pass-catching tight end Martellus Bennett made headlines
this week as the former Bear and Patriot was released after a
disappointing short stint with the Packers. Although Bennett is
a big name player, the tight end in the Green Bay passing offense
has never been a focal point under Mike McCarthy, and the loss
of Bulaga will likely result in Lance Kendricks and Richard Rodgers
staying in pass protection to give Hudley a chance to throw the
ball downfield.
The skill position players in the passing game for Green Bay
are no longer considered must-start fantasy plays with Hundley
under center. Hundley is dead last in fantasy points per attempt
for QB’s this season, which has resulted in Jordy Nelson
finishing outside of WR3 consideration in two of his last three
games. Davante Adams scored a touchdown against the Vikings on
a busted coverage play made by Hundley extending a play with his
feet; otherwise, he too has been barely worthy of a start in standard
size leagues.
With four teams on a bye this week Nelson and Adams owners will
likely struggle to find a better option at WR, but expectations
should be tempered with a touchdown likely needed to salvage a
low-volume day.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Running Game Thoughts: After leaning on rookie Aaron Jones for
49 combined carries in the team’s last three games, including
a 17-carry for 131 yards and one touchdown performance against
New Orleans, Head Coach Mike McCarthy gave Jones five carries
for 12 yards against the Lions on Monday night. It was a strange
decision based on the fact that the best way to beat the Lions
this season has been on the ground and the Packers’ inability
to stop Matthew Stafford could have been greatly improved with
the Green Bay offense controlling the clock and the ball. Negative
game script came into play for the Pack, with Green Ban running
the ball only 11 times for 46 yards. To make matters worse for
Jones owners, McCarthy put in third-string back Jamaal Williams
late in the game for a one-yard touchdown run, killing any chance
for a garbage time redemption TD for Jones.
With the Bears allowing the 15th-most point to opposing running
backs and seven different backs scoring a rushing touchdown vs.
Chicago in 2017, one would hope that McCarthy will employ a run-first
attack featuring Jones on Sunday. Opposing running backs average
just under four yards per carry on 191 attempts vs. Chicago, and
no back this season has managed to top more than 100 yards. This
matchup has at the makings of a smash mouth NFC north matchup
between two longtime rivals, with the Bears looking to impose
their will on the Packers with a potent running attack and an
above average defense. To say in the game Jones and Ty Montgomery
will need to find success running the ball, which hopefully will
open up the play-action passing game for Nelson and Adams.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The combination of Mike Glennon and Mitchell
Trubisky have the Bears ranked dead last in fantasy points scored
from the quarterback position, just under 15 points per game less
than the Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks. The Bears are a
throwback to their early days as a run-first defensive-minded
unit, using the pass merely as a change of pace and vehicle to
keep defenses from stacking the box on every play.
Rookie Mitchell Trubisky has only two passing touchdowns in four
games for Chicago and two games in which he failed to complete
more than 10 passes. A win at home against the Panthers Week 7
is a perfect example of how the Bears approach winning games,
with Trubisky completing four of seven passes for 107 yards and
zero touchdowns. The Bears controlled the game with their punishing
ground game and scored two defensive touchdowns.
Trubisky is in line for another single digit completion day with
the likelihood of another run-heavy approach against a Packers
defense that allows the fifth-most points to opposing running
backs, and an offense led by a turnover-prone backup who is struggling
to read defenses and holds onto the ball too long. Head coach
John Fox may not need Trubisky to throw the ball more than ten
times in this game, making all skill position players on Chicago
unstartable in all but the deepest of 14-team leagues.
If Brett Hundley can lead the Packers to a few scoring drives
and succeeds in taking the Bears out of their ground and pound
style, Trubisky could have success against a Green Bay secondary
that has given up the 15th-most points to opposing QBs. The loss
of tight end Zach Miller to a gruesome season-ending knee dislocation
hurts Trubsiky’s value in that Miller was his favorite target,
but the likelihood of Chicago needing to air it out in this game
is small.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Running Game Thoughts: With a bye week to rest his ailing shoulder
and a struggling Packers run defense heading to Soldier Field,
Jordan Howard appears to be primed for a monster game this Sunday.
Howard ranks 10th in fantasy points per game in FFToday default
scoring, just behind Chris Thompson and ahead of Mark Ingram and
LeSean McCoy. He is down nearly a full yard per carry from his
breakout rookie campaign in which he rushed for 1313 yards and
six scores on 252 carries, but he is still averaging 4.1 per tote
and is on pace for 1300 yards and eight rushing touchdowns.
Volume is a key for bellcow running backs to impose their will
on opposing defensive units, and the Bears have fed Howard with
at least 20 carries in four of his last six games, including a
career-high 36 rushes for 167 yards against Baltimore Week 6.
An expectation of 25 carries for at least 100 yards is reasonable
for Howard in this game, and the upside of at least one touchdown
fueled by short fields provided by the defense is high.
Tarik Cohen appears to be a flash in the pan now that he has
posted just four receptions combined in his last four games after
24 catches in his first four career games in the NFL. Cohen. Cohen’s
value appears to have been tied to Mike Glennon, with the shifty
running back receiving no more than seven touches in any of the
four games started by Trubkisy. Cohen’s ability to hit a
home run from anywhere on the field makes him a flex play in deep
leagues, but owners looking for a high floor should look elsewhere.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Dak Prescott’s start to his rookie
year was pretty impressive but his start to this season might
be even better. The second-year quarterback has thrown for two
or more touchdown passes in all but two games in 2017 while chipping
in another four rushing scores. He’s been good for the Cowboys
and fantasy owners alike so get him into your Week 10 lineup and
expect him to be productive once again. Dez Bryant got banged
up pretty good in last week’s action. He missed practice
time this week and has been slapped with the questionable designation
as the Cowboys prepare for their date with the Falcons. Dallas’s
game plan doesn’t need Bryant to be good in order to win
so fantasy owners should heed caution before relying on him to
deliver WR1 type production in Week 10. Terrance Williams and
Cole Beasley are more than capable to get the job done when the
running game is leading the charge. However, Williams was limited
in practice this week and may not be a t full speed even if he
does play this weekend. The potential for both Bryant and Williams
to play through injuries leaves the door ajar for Jason Witten
and/or Cole Beasley to find more room over the middle this week.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: I am still not sure why multiple federal
judges are dictating playing time in the NFL but it looks like
there is at least a soft closing in the Ezekiel Elliott suspension
saga. Thursday’s ruling forces the Cowboys’ running
back to begin serving his suspension immediately. With Elliott
unavailable for this week’s duel in Atlanta, the Cowboys
will use a RBBC that features Alfred Morris, Rod Smith and Darren
McFadden. It’s quite the drop off and fantasy values are
all over the place as a result. It seems likely that Morris and
his 2.3 YPC will get the start this weekend which gives him the
best odds at being Dallas’ best fantasy running back in
Week 10 but it is far from a certainty. Rod Smith will be rotated
in and some consider him to be the second likely choice to lead
this trio. His all-around game doesn’t pigeon-hole him into
one defined role so anything is possible. Darren McFadden has
already shown an ability to carry the team with Elliott out of
the lineup and I think he will find a way to the top of this committee
sooner than later. Will it be against the Falcons with the team
expected to give Morris the first crack? Probably not but if I
were planning on using any one of these guys this week, I’d
be glued to the news updates leading up until kickoff. The situation
is fluid and involves a lot of low floor outcomes for my liking
so steer clear of this situation until more information can be
gleaned from Sunday’s outing.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Overall, the offense has been quite good
this year with the team ranking sixth in offensive yards per game
but they are only converting 40-percent of third downs and only
24th in time of possession. Those last two areas will need to
improve if they are hoping to prevent Dallas from running over
them this weekend. Matt Ryan finally threw for 300 yards last
week after seeing his production dip over the past five games.
That coincided with Julio Jones’ best effort in weeks and
fewer touches for the running backs. Can Atlanta be as successful
against the Cowboys in Week 10? Probably not, but that shouldn’t
stop anyone from starting Julio Jones. Tyler Gabriel and Mohamed
Sanu will once again fight for the leftovers making both touchdown
dependent fantasy options. Austin Hooper has been too erratic
and hasn’t scored enough touchdowns to give fantasy owners
much confidence in starting him these days. If the team made a
more concerted effort to utilize him in short passing situations
rather than its running backs, they might find a way to convert
on third down and keep Dallas off the field.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Running Game Thoughts: Devonta Freeman’s workload has declined
over the past month. In that span he has averaged only 11 carries
per game and has failed to score a rushing touchdown. He has been
limited in practice this week and it seems likely that he is playing
through some type of knee injury. His work in the passing game
has prevented him from falling out of the top 25 or 30 fantasy
running backs as we enter Week 10. However, it also doesn’t
make his owners feel too good knowing their top rusher is giving
them RB2 production. I don’t think he will be held out of
this game but his owners should make sure to double-check his
status prior to Sunday. Tevin Coleman has yet to be more than
a useful flex at most points throughout the season. He has scored
in two of the team’s last four games and continues to get
about 10-12 touches per game. The Cowboys are better than most
at stopping the run but I still wouldn’t mind having Coleman
in my flex spot unless I had clear cut options that were better.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Miami travels to Carolina in a true Southeastern
clash of teams fighting to salvage their playoff hopes this season.
Jay Cutler posted the fifth highest fantasy quarterback total
in last week’s win over the Raiders and the Panthers have
been in a few shootouts this season. The Dolphins offense is still
evolving and indoor road games are not the most ideal places to
expect a turnaround performance. That beings said, DeVante Parker
rebounded nicely following the team’s embarrassing Week
9 loss. He represents the best down field option against a Panthers
defense that just saw Julio Jones return to the century club.
Getting the deep ball working would allow Jarvis Landry more room
to operate underneath provided Jay Cutler can get him the ball.
Though his touchdown upside is limited and the passing game still
has some wrinkles to iron out, Landry continues to provide quality
WR3 fantasy output. Miami should use him all over the field to
help create a running game with plenty of short yardage throws
so continue to roll with him in your lineup for Week 10. I’m
not as optimistic with Julius Thomas. He has failed to become
a fixture in the passing game so his six-catch performance a week
ago feels more like an outlier than the beginning of a trend.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Running Game Thoughts: Damien Williams seemed to be the better
playmaker out of the backfield but he needed to do it as a receiver.
That isn’t as big of a deal this week with the Panthers
being more susceptible against the pass. Williams was dealing
with an illness on Thursday so his owners will want to make sure
they check back to see if he has gotten over the ailment in time
to remain active for Week 10. Kenyon Drake had a quality outing
last week as he appears to have taken over the “between
the tackles” role in the backfield. He’s not likely
to find a whole lotta room and I wouldn’t advise plugging
him into your lineup. His floor is way too low for flex consideration
so keep him benched and wait for a better matchup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Monday Night Football and Cam Newton have
had plenty of great memories for fantasy owners and this week
should add a few more. I’m just not so sure they will be
good ones. The Panthers will go in with a limited rushing capability
and several pass catchers without a long track record. Kelvin
Benjamin is gone and Greg Olsen is still inactive due to injury.
That is asking quite a bit out of Devin Funchess and Christian
McCaffery. I don’t expect Miami to move the ball up and
down the field so a rare low score on Monday night football may
suck some of the fantasy flavor out of this game. Nonetheless,
fantasy owners should love the targets Funchess should see and
get him into their lineup as a WR3 or flex if needed. One of Curtis
Samuel and Russell Shepard will need to step up in order for the
Panthers to win this matchup. Samuel got the start following Kelvin
Benjamin’s trade but he didn’t do much to warrant
fantasy love heading into Week 10.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: Carolina’s backfield is led by a
player leading all NFL running backs in targets and another who
hasn’t gone over the half-century mark in rushing yards
since Week 4. Things could be better on the ground but they could
be worse. The Panthers will likely continue to use the wishbone
option offense to force Miami’s defense into making mistakes.
That doesn’t mean I want to count on Jonathan Stewart in
my lineup but it could result in a few more yards coming for Cam
Newton. Despite the team’s efforts to limit his running
this season, they may not have a choice if Stewart continues to
struggle finding running lanes. McCaffery is a must start nowadays
as a low end RB2 or flex in standard leagues or a borderline RB1
in PPR formats. The rookie continues to see plenty of easy, catchable
passes week in and week out as Carolina tries to creatively solve
their inability to run the football using a traditional handoff.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Chargers prefer to throw the ball over
61 percent of the time but they will need a new plan of attack
this week as the Jacksonville-D has been up to the task more often
than not. If the Chargers stubbornly insist on playing this game
with the same mindset, they will probably be playing catch up
in the second half. If they adapt to a heavier ground attack this
week, it will eat into the passing numbers so downgrade all your
Chargers this week. That may or may not put them on your bench
depending on your other options. Phillip Rivers has cooled substantially
since the start of the year. Since scoring 20 fantasy points or
more in four of Los Angeles’ first five games, he has averaged
a measly 16.3 fantasy points. Playing on the road on the opposite
coast against one of the best defenses in the NFL doesn’t
bode well for a turnaround in Week 10.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: Melvin Gordon has proven to be worthy
of his first-round status this preseason. He enters Week 10 as
the only running back in the NFL with at least four touchdowns
rushing and receiving as he continues to be a multi-purpose threat
on the field. Jacksonville’s defense has allowed less than
ten points in three of their last four contests so don’t
expect Gordon to have one of his elite performances in Week 10.
However, I do think he can approach 100 total yards because the
Chargers cannot afford to lose the time of possession battle in
this road game. Look for Gordon to exceed 20 carries for the third
time this season in route to a decent fantasy day.
Value Meter:
RB1: Melvin Gordon
Bench: Everyone else
Passing
Game Thoughts: Blake Bortles has a fantasy pulse these
days but that’s not enough to recommend starting him this
week. He has now posted three straight games with at least 18
standard fantasy points and the signs of life have trickled down
onto his receiving corps. Well, at least Marqise Lee anyway. Over
the past three games, Lee has easily been the best Jags fantasy
receiver and that trend is more likely than not to continue for
the rest of the season. The problem with trusting the Jags passing
game is simply the lack of it. Lee’s fantasy totals during
Bortles’ “hot streak” ranged from 7 to 13.5
fantasy points. That’s useful in most leagues but the potential
debut of Dede Westbrook may sour on what little fantasy juice
Lee has right now. The Chargers haven’t allowed a receiving
touchdown in two weeks so I’m not trying to find ways to
get any Jag pass-catcher in my lineup.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Running Game Thoughts: Leonard Fournette’s miscue in violating
team rules cost him and his owners a solid fantasy day a week
ago but he is expected back on the field Sunday. The missed game
could be a blessing in disguise, however, as many rookies start
to hit the wall around this time of year. Rested and motivated,
Fournette is looking like a top ten fantasy RB this week going
up against an average defense at home. Chris Ivory has shown he
can be productive in this scheme and the Jags should feel better
about working him into the game moving forward. I’m liking
his chances of getting double-digit carries in this game but the
size of your league will dictate whether he is flex-worthy.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton and the Bengals continue their
tour through the AFC South this weekend with a stop in Music City.
I’m expecting a small rebound from this passing game this
week but this offense continues to disappoint fantasy owners in
2017. The Bengals rank 28th in the NFL in passing yards per game
and their All-Pro receiver spent more time choke slamming guys
last week than he did catching passes. The good news for A.J.
Green owners is that he has somehow managed not to be suspended
for Week 10 and will get a chance to redeem himself in a favorable
matchup. Get him back in there and look for the veteran to put
last week’s embarrassment behind him. Brandon LaFell and
Tyler Kroft are borderline starters this week. If you are using
Kroft, chances are he has taken over as your primary tight end
anyway so you are plugging him in anyway. Brandon LaFell has had
his two best games of his season while playing on the road and
a few more scoring opportunities should present themselves in
this matchup. Nevertheless, he has been battling hamstring issues
and figures to have a limited role on Sunday as a result.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Running Game Thoughts: In the Bengals’ last three games
Joe Mixon has received 14 more carries than Gio Bernard and Jeremy
Hill combined. The rookie has clearly entered the weekly RB2 tier
and this week could see him flirt with RB1 status. He has been
a top ten fantasy running back from Weeks 7 through 9 and has
yet to post a truly dominating game. Dalton’s inability
to get much going through the air only gives the coaching staff
more reason to ride the ground game against the Titans on the
road. Giovani Bernard doesn’t get enough catches out of
the backfield to be a reliable PPR asset and Jeremy Hill is a
fantasy corpse now that Mixon has taken control of this backfield.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Eight games played. Seven passing touchdowns.
This offense reminds me of the guy driving the BMW that has seen
better days. It may have been a really nice ride at one point
but now it’s challenge getting from point A to point B and
back again. The Bengals pass defense has put up decent numbers
against opposing fantasy quarterbacks but they are misleading.
Cincy has had the good fortune of playing only two games against
decent quarterbacks with a strong passing attack in 2017. That
being said, I don’t think Marcus Mariota and the gang in
Tennessee qualifies as having a strong passing attack either.
Corey Davis received five targets in his NFL debut last weekend
and he should continue to carve out his place in the offense.
I don’t know if it will be enough to make him anything more
than a WR4/5 and it will surely dampen the fantasy ceilings of
Delanie Walker and Rishard Mathews starting this week. This group
of players is looking riskier and riskier by the week. Everyone
has the potential, but nobody can be penciled in for more than
four targets each week.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Running Game Thoughts: DeMarco Murray’s latest injury is
with his knee and not his hamstring. As we prepare to set lineups
for Week 10 and have another seven weeks remaining in the season
without another bye week, a running back who has dealt with multiple
nagging leg injuries in the first half of the year is probably
not going to be the one to win you a fantasy title. This week
he was able to practice and is expected to start, which translates
into more frustration for fantasy owners. The Titans continue
to look like a team that wants Murray to be the primary ball-carrier
when he is healthy leaving Derrick Henry’s fantasy projection
all over the map. At the very least, I feel Murray’s dings
and dents should be enough reason for the coaching staff to use
Henry near the goal but that is simply speculation on my part.
The Bengals have allowed over 100 yards rushing in each of their
last three games so both backs are worth starting this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Martavis Bryant is back practicing with
the first team. Whether or not he can stay there is another story
but for Week 10 it appears he will be on the field. His role in
the offense has been damaged by the emergence of JuJu Smith-Shuster
so don’t be too quick on putting Bryant back into your lineup.
I’d rather take a wait and see approach with the troubled
receiver or simply let another more desperate manager to the gamble
altogether. With the Texans’ pass game derailed by the injury
to Deshaun Watson and Odell Beckham Jr. out with injury, the Steelers’
Antonio Brown is the best receiver to own in fantasyland. He shouldn’t
have three touchdowns when you look at his numbers after this
weekend so look for him to carry your fantasy squad in Week 10.
Ben Roethlisberger has been one of the steadiest quarterbacks
in the league this season. Unfortunately, it isn’t because
he has been playing at a high level this year, but rather his
typical “just OK” fantasy outings. Continue to view
him as a low-end QB1 this week with a good matchup. Jesse James
would accrue most of the team’s tight end snaps if Vance
McDonald remains out. The four-year veteran tight end had overtaken
James as the starter but has been out since sustaining a knee
injury in Week 7. James hasn’t done much with the extra
workload and should only be considered in two-tight end formats.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: In what might be the easiest lineup decision
of the week Le’Veon Bell is going up against the third friendliest
defense to opposing running backs. Anything less than 20 fantasy
points in Week 10 would be a disappointment. Bell has had at least
25 carries in every game of Pittsburgh’s current three-game
winning streak. Barring injury, both streaks should continue past
Week 10. James Connor will get a token carry or two but carries
minimal fantasy value as Bell’s handcuff.
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Game Thoughts: Indianapolis’ passing game has improved
since the return of Jack Doyle to the starting lineup. Quarterback
Jacoby Brissett is gaining confidence and has shown the ability
to keep the main pieces of the offense fantasy relevant as we
march towards the playoffs. T.Y. Hilton led all wide receivers
in fantasy points a week ago on his way to earning AFC Player
of the Week accolades. He’s a lock for plenty of targets
and should be started in all formats. A similar plan is in order
for Jack Doyle. Indianapolis’ tight end hauled in another
eight passes a week ago to give him 50 through only eight games
this season. Continue to deploy him with confidence this week.
Behind those two, however, there is a cavernous void. The Colts
have simply not found a way to get more out of Donte Moncrief
this season. There have been no signs of life to make anyone believe
he can return to being a fantasy friendly player in 2017 and he
should be dropped off all rosters as a result. Brissett is best
used as a stop gap solution to your lineup. The Colts offensive
line has given up the most sacks on the season so there is significant
risk of a low floor if you do choose to go down this road.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: Pittsburgh has struggled against the run
this year and the Colts have only had success through the air
when T.Y. Hilton gets going. If Indy hopes to keep this game close,
they will need to shore up their defense and let Gore handle the
ball more than his usual workload. The 17 carries he saw in Week
9 were the most carries he has seen since the third week of the
season and also led to a Colts victory. The same boring mix should
still provide Gore with a decent fantasy line as a flex or deep
league RB2. Marlon Mack’s fantasy owners are clinging to
snap counts but Gore remains a fixture getting carries in an offense
that is far less potent this season. As a result, Mack should
remain planted on your fantasy bench until more opportunity arises.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Josh McCown has alligator blood because
he continues to find starting gigs even though he is best viewed
as a backup quarterback. He has very quietly been the ninth best
fantasy passer this year carrying a per game average of just over
19 fantasy points. That output places him ahead of Matthew Stafford,
Drew Brees and Matt Ryan on the season but it has not made it
easier figuring out which receiver to bank on each week. Robby
Anderson appears to have broken out as the team’s top receiving
option for fantasy purposes over Jermaine Kearse. Mr. Anderson
now has back-to-back games with a touchdown under his belt but
he will continue to split targets with Kearse in Week 10. Both
players bring flex appeal to the table this week in a ripe match
up. Meanwhile, Austin Seferian-Jenkins has been a touchdown or
bust fantasy tight end to this point of the season. I think the
Jets will be able to find room running the ball if they get into
the red zone putting the big tight end’s red zone targets
at risk for Week 10.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: The Jets should be able to take advantage
of Tampa Bay’s shortcomings against the rush. Both Bilal
Powell and Matt Forte offer plenty of fantasy upside despite the
fact that they are splitting carries. Tampa has yielded four rushing
scores over the past three weeks and they aren’t much better
at covering running backs coming out of the backfield. Only six
teams have allowed more receptions to opposing running backs so
I’m bullish on the Jets’ making every effort to win
this on the backs of its ground game. That makes the injury status
of Matt Forte’s knee one of the hotter fantasy topics heading
into the weekend. Forte was unable to practice Thursday. The veteran
has had knee issues during his career so this may be a case of
the team giving their veteran extra rest. However, a DNP for Friday
would cast a large shadow on his availability for Sunday and move
the arrow significantly upward as a potential RB1 for Powell so
stay tuned for more updates.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ryan Fitzpatrick will get the nod in this
game with Jameis Winston sidelined with a shoulder injury. The
cagey veteran will enjoy suiting up against his former team (that
wouldn’t pay his asking price) but he will be operating
without the team’s star receiver. Mike Evans is set to serve
his one-game suspension this weekend after losing his appeal this
week and thereby forcing his owners to scramble for a replacement.
While DeSean Jackson steps into a more featured role on the outside,
the Bucs may also try to lean more heavily on Cameron Brate in
this matchup. The undervalued tight end is coming off a poor outing
in Week 9 so there is no guarantee he will be able to right the
ship with Fitzpatrick under center. The same is true for O.J.
Howard. The rookie tight end has only three catches since his
two-touchdown effort in Week 7. Adam Humphries has been labeled
questionable for this game as he continues to nurse a rib injury.
If healthy, I could see him outshining Jackson in this game but
not if he is playing at less than full strength. Rookie wideout
Chris Godwin may get a few more reps on offense with Evans out.
He has the ability to develop into an exciting player but I just
don’t expect this offense to get much going on Sunday afternoon.
The Jets have been a solid matchup for opposing fantasy wideouts
this year so deep league owners may choose wade into these waters
anyway.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: Tampa Bay’s offense will be playing
this game without its quarterback and star receiver so it shouldn’t
be a surprise when HC Dirk Koetter tries to stick with the running
game as long as he possibly can. The yards may not come in chunks
but there is a high probability that Doug Martin’s volume
will make him a worthwhile fantasy starter this weekend. It also
means that Charles Sims and Jacquizz Rodgers may sneak in a handful
of carries that may not normally see. I don’t advocate starting
either of the backup running backs, however it could allow them
to move the ball down the field better than they have in recent
weeks. The Jets have given up over 120 rushing yards per game
in 2017 and may get gashed if the Bucs can sustain longer drives
by utilizing all three of their running backs and limiting potential
turnovers in the passing game in the process.
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