McLaurin has been a standout performer in fantasy football this
season. In his most recent game, he recorded five catches for
113 yards on six targets, showcasing his ability to produce significant
yardage even with a limited number of opportunities. McLaurin
has been remarkably consistent, securing at least 13 PPR fantasy
points in eight consecutive games, underscoring his reliability
for fantasy managers.
While the Eagles have recently been successful in containing
wide receivers over the past two weeks, their defense was against
the Cowboys and Jaguars: two teams struggling mightily on offense.
Despite not having the volume of targets needed to reach elite
WR1 status, McLaurin's consistent performance provides a solid
floor, making him an easy start in fantasy lineups.
Brian Robinson’s lingering hamstring injury has now caused
him to miss back-to-back games and that has translated into the
best two games of the season for backup Austin Ekeler. Ekeler
only rushed for 42 and 44 yards on 11 and 13 carries respectively,
and while his passing game usage has been less frequent than usual,
he’s managed three touchdowns over the span. Typically,
this is a red flag for future production as this high of a touchdown-per-yard
ratio is unsustainable for almost any player, but the Washington
offense has been scoring at a high enough rate that any back seeing
the goal line carries within it is a good bet to get into the
end zone on any given week.
The real question here is whether or not Robinson will be back
on the field for this important divisional matchup in Week 11.
He did practice on Wednesday and is expected to play but check
the Inactives on Thursday for confirmation.
If Robinson is active then fantasy managers should expect this
to go back to more of a 50/35/15 snap split between Robinson,
Ekeler, and Jeremy McNichols respectively. We saw this in the
weeks prior to Robinson’s hamstring injury and that was an effective
split for the team. It does, however, make things difficult for
fantasy managers as Robinson and Ekeler both become borderline
starters with risky outlooks, especially against a Philadelphia
defense that has stepped up in a big way, particularly against
the run where they’ve conceded the second-fewest fantasy points
per game to running backs this season.
The tight end position has been extremely difficult to predict
this season which can make it challenging to bench a player like
Ertz who has been seeing a relatively high target share in this
high-powered Washington offense. Ertz saw 11 targets in Week 8
and eight targets in Week 10, but sandwiched between those two
games was a one-target dud against the Giants. While the 11 and
eight target games might seem enticing, it’s worth considering
that Ertz has only exceeded five targets in three total games
this season and he’s yet to reach 80 yards in a game all
while scoring one total touchdown.
If you’re in a desperate situation where your normal starter
is unavailable and Ertz is on the waiver wire, fine, he’s
not completely incapable of seeing some usage, so feel free to
pick him up and start him. But if you’re looking for a big,
difference-making fantasy performance from a tight end then Ertz
is probably not the guy to be relying on, especially against a
Philadelphia defense that has given up the fourth-fewest fantasy
points per game to opposing tight ends this season, including
zero touchdowns surrendered.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
A.J. Brown has been a force in fantasy football when healthy,
averaging nearly 17 points per game in PPR formats when active.
Despite not exceeding six receptions in any single game, Brown's
efficiency on the field is remarkable, boasting an average of
nearly 20 yards per catch. His consistency is further evidenced
by him finishing with at least 80 receiving yards in all but one
of his games played this season while also finding the end zone
three times.
This Thursday night game against the Commanders, who have recently
allowed strong performances from opposing WR1s like George Pickens
and Malik Nabers, presents a favorable matchup for Brown. Given
the potential for a high-scoring game, there's an expectation
that Brown could see a target count at or above his season-high
of 10 targets, positioning him as a solid WR1 for fantasy managers
this week.
DeVonta Smith's performance in Week 10 is a warning for fantasy
football managers relying on the Philadelphia Eagles' passing
game. Since returning from injury, Smith has not been a high-volume
target, failing to reach eight targets in his last five games—a
stark contrast to his early-season performance where he consistently
hit or surpassed this mark. The Eagles' recent blowout victories,
including a significant win over the Cowboys where quarterback
Jalen Hurts threw only 20 passes, have contributed to this reduced
involvement. Smith's three catches for 14 yards from three targets
in that game really highlights this issue, as despite a reasonable
15% target share, the lack of total passing volume meant that
this was not nearly enough usage to be viable for fantasy managers.
While Smith has occasionally achieved WR1 status, his fantasy
points have often been bolstered by touchdowns rather than high
reception counts. In his recent games, he's scored three times
but has failed to exceed four receptions in four of his past five
contests. However, Smith's efficiency makes him startable even
with modest target numbers, especially in games where the Eagles'
offense might need to throw more to keep up with their opponents.
This week, Smith faces a more favorable scenario against the Washington
Commanders, whose defense provides a top-half matchup for wide
receivers.
The Commanders have had excellent offensive productivity and
this game has the potential to be high-scoring, which could benefit
Smith. Fantasy managers can consider him a solid WR2, given the
matchup and the likelihood of higher-than-usual total pass attempts
from Jalen Hurts.
After missing three games due to a hamstring injury, Philadelphia
Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert returned to action this past week.
His performance was moderate, with only three targets, but he
managed to make an impact by catching two of the passes for 25
yards and a touchdown. This performance, while not terrible, serves
as a reminder for fantasy managers to keep their expectations
in check for Goedert's immediate fantasy value.
Historically, Goedert's opportunity share in the Eagles' offense
has been influenced by DeVonta Smith's presence, leading to a
scenario where both players can underperform if neither finds
the end zone. Looking at the Thursday Night matchup against the
Washington Commanders, there's a mixed outlook for Goedert. The
Commanders have been vulnerable to tight end touchdowns, but they've
generally kept the position in check, with only one tight end
this season - Ja’Tavion Sanders - managing to secure more
than five receptions against them. Other notable tight ends like
Cole Kmet, Pat Freiermuth, Mark Andrews, David Njoku, Mike Gesicki,
and Cade Otton have had limited success in both yardage and receptions.
Given these factors, Goedert is probably a "touchdown-or-bust"
option in fantasy football this week. While there's potential
for him to score, his overall production could remain capped until
he fully integrates back into the offense, especially with Smith
back in the mix. Fantasy managers should consider him for his
scoring potential but temper expectations for a high-volume, yardage
game.
The Colts' offense has been shaky at best throughout the season,
but one player who’s stepped up is second-year wide receiver Josh
Downs. Downs has been particularly effective in games with Joe
Flacco at quarterback as he’s averaged nearly 10 targets per game
with Flacco behind center. That type of volume would be excellent
even amongst superstar WRs, but we’re getting it from a guy who’s
flying under the radar for many fantasy managers.
Unfortunately, the Colts have opted to go back to Anthony Richardson
at quarterback, which may provide a higher ceiling for the team,
but it also eliminates whatever floor Flacco was providing. For
Downs in particular, he now faces a Jets defense that has been
the absolute best unit in the league so we probably needed to
temper expectations no matter who was at quarterback. However,
one interesting factor here is that Downs plays most of his snaps
out of the slot which should allow him almost completely to avoid
any coverage from Jets superstar corner Sauce Gardner. Look for
Downs to lead the Colts in target share again this week, making
him the best option in this passing game who still has the potential
to break through with a big-time performance.
The Colts have announced that quarterback Anthony Richardson
will be returning to the lineup following a two-game stretch where
he was unceremoniously benched for poor performance. Richardson
was unquestionably bad earlier this season as he has completed
just 44 percent of his pass attempts, thrown just four touchdowns,
and seven interceptions in his starts. Those numbers are among
the worst that we’ve seen from any starting quarterback
in years. The only hope from Richardson has been that he does
possess the high-end rushing upside that we need for a quarterback
to truly become an elite fantasy asset. He rushed for 242 yards
in just over five games and we’ve seen him be even more
effective than that in the past. Desperate fantasy managers could
consider Richardson this week, but this is a tough matchup against
a good Jets defense and it’s probably best to take a “wait
and see” approach with him.
Pittman has been dealing with a lingering back injury that seems
to be affecting his play and he ended up missing the Colts’
Week 10 game against the Bills. This absence was tough for fantasy
managers, but it might have been a disguised blessing as he had
spent the previous three weeks dropping duds, catching just five
of the 15 passes that came his way. Pittman could be active this
week, but even if he is, this is not the matchup where fantasy
managers will want to put him back in their lineups, as he’ll
probably lined up quite a bit against Sauce Gardner - one of the
league’s best shutdown corners. That alone should be enough
to pause, but when we add in Pittman’s poor production and
lingering injuries, along with Richardson’s return at quarterback,
this becomes an obvious situation to avoid for fantasy.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
The Jets offense continues to sputter and while Breece Hall has
been relatively productive with his opportunities on the ground
as of late, the truth is that it’s tough for him to be too
involved when the team is getting pummeled by their opponents
like they did in their matchup with the Cardinals this past week.
Hall still managed to produce over 12 fantasy points in that game,
in large part due to his continued strong usage in the passing
game, but 10 carries is tough to get excited about.
Thankfully, Hall now has an opportunity to face an Indianapolis
team that has also been struggling on offense. This should mean
that the game stays relatively close on the scoreboard which would,
in theory, allow the Jets to keep Hall involved on the ground
much deeper into this game than they did in Week 10.
The Colts have given up four 100-yard rushers this season and
Hall is a strong bet to see 15 or more carries this week, so this
looks like a good opportunity for him to become the fifth back
to reach the century mark against the Colts here in 2024.
There’s no doubt that the Jets want to get Davante Adams
the ball. The superstar wide receiver has been targeted a whopping
39 times over his four games as a Jet, including a season-high
13 targets this past week against the Cardinals. However, it just
seems like something is off, as Adams was only able to convert
six of those passes for a pathetic 31 yards. This means that,
despite nearly 10 targets per game since coming to New York, Adams
has now failed to reach even 10 PPR fantasy points in three of
his four contests.
It can sometimes be tough to lean on volume and talent more than
efficiency when we’re projecting for fantasy football purposes,
but highly talented players seeing this type of usage rarely continue
to be this disappointing in the long run.
Adams has an opportunity to get back into the good graces of
fantasy managers this week as he faces a Colts defense that has
been a top-10 matchup for opposing wide receivers so far this
season. Outside receivers like Nico Collins, Rome Odunze, Brian
Thomas Jr., George Pickens, and Justin Jefferson have all gone
over 100 yards against this defense in 2024, so don’t be surprised
if this is a get-right game for Adams in particular.
A matchup against an Indianapolis defense that has given up the
sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this
season could be a tempting option for managers who are searching
for bye-week replacements in Week 11. Aaron Rodgers isn’t
a completely terrible option and he’ll probably deliver
a high enough floor to not be a complete disaster for managers,
but the high-end upside is just not there for him in this offense.
Despite having perhaps the best one-two-punch WR combo in the
league along with one of the best pass-catching backs, he has
still failed to reach 300 yards passing in any game this season.
Sure, his truly “bad” weeks are fairly rare, but Rodgers
does not deliver the ceiling that fantasy managers need to make
an run down the stretch, in large part due to the fact that he
provides absolutely nothing in the running game.
If you’re just searching for a QB who can give you mid-level
QB2 numbers and possibly dip his toes into being a low-end QB1,
then great - Rodgers may be one of the best options you can find
on waivers here in Week 11. But if you’re looking for someone
who has the potential to provide difference-making production,
then it’s best to look elsewhere.
While we’re inching closer to sticking Andrews on the must-start
list, we aren’t there just yet. The veteran did enjoy his
best game of 2024 so far last Thursday night, setting season highs
in receptions (6) and yards (68) while scoring his fifth touchdown
of the year, all of which came in the last five weeks. He’s
had some big games against the Steelers over the years, including
racking up 16 catches and 165 yards combined the last two times
the clubs have played. Between his improved play over the past
month-plus and history of success against Pittsburgh, Andrew looks
like a legitimate top-10 fantasy tight end this Sunday.
It was always going to take some time for Johnson to acclimate
to a new team, and the fact that the Ravens played twice in five
days did the veteran no favors in that regard. So, with that in
mind, you shouldn’t read much into him having one reception
for six yards since joining the club. It might be tempting to
envision a breakout game from Johnson in Week 11 as he’s
had extra time to integrate since the Thursday game with Cincinnati,
not to mention the revenge factor of returning to face his former
club. It’s possible those factors come together, and Johnson
has a big game, but it feels like a long shot, and the smarter
move for fantasy owners is to leave him on the bench until he
shows more involvement in the offense.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Making the move from Justin Fields to Wilson was controversial
given that the Steelers had gone 4-2 with the Ohio State alum
at the controls. It’s paid off. In three starts (all wins), Wilson
has thrown for 737 yards, 6 TDs, and 1 INT, and his insertion
into the starting lineup has generated a vertical threat in the
passing game that was absent with Fields. Despite a long history
of physical battles between these two clubs, their Week 11 showdown
looks more likely to be a shootout than a slugfest. On the season,
the Ravens rank last in the NFL in pass defense, allowing 294.9
yards per game to go with 22 TDs. We know Baltimore is going to
score, so Wilson and company are going to need to keep pace. The
veteran holds QB1 value with big-time upside.
While it’s unlikely that Najee Harris (ankle) will miss
Sunday’s AFC North matchup, the lead back missed practice
on Wednesday after getting rolled up on late in last week’s
win over Washington. That helped break Harris’ three-game
streak of 100-plus-yard efforts and led to Warren setting season
highs in carries (14) and yards (66), though he did have a critical
fumble that almost cost Pittsburgh a win. Beyond Harris’
injury, Warren is generally more involved in the passing game,
and that’s clearly the way to attack Baltimore, which boasts
the league’s No. 1 run defense. Harris was back at practice
on Thursday, so he’s on track to play, but you should still
consider Warren as a possible RB3 or flex with decent upside.
T.J. Hockenson should be in the “No Brainer” tier,
but this is just an opportunity to inform you that Hockenson has
been elevated to a (nearly) full-time player. After running a
route on 45 percent of dropbacks in his first game back, Hockenson
was elevated to a 67 percent route share last week. Hockenson’s
role will likely continue to expand this week in his third game
back. With this sort of usage, Hockenson is a player who belongs
in all lineups.
With Hockenson returning to the lineup, the path to targets for
Jordan Addison continues to get tougher. In the two games with
Hockenson on the field, Addison has failed to clear a 15-percent
target share. In a game where the Vikings likely won’t be
forced to be at the top of their game offensively, it’s
hard to rely on the third pass-catching option. His only path
to an impactful week in fantasy lineups is through a long touchdown.
There are better bets for fantasy managers to make at their Flex
this week.
At this point, it’s become quite clear that Sam Darnold
is nothing more than a matchup-based streamer at quarterback.
This is not a matchup that favors Darnold. The Titans rank 16th
in fantasy points allowed to QBs, 19th in EPA per dropback, and
32nd in passing yards allowed per game. The Titans are best attacked
on the ground and have done well in containing opposing passing
attacks. Their ability to hold opponents to low yardage totals
through the air is also another reason to fade Addison this week.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
The departure of DeAndre Hopkins has treated Calvin Ridley very
kindly. Without Hopkins in the picture, Ridley has been targeted
on 32 percent of his routes while accounting for 53 percent of
the team’s air yards. Both of these marks are elite WR1 numbers.
Ridley has indeed been performing like a WR1 during this stretch.
Across the last three weeks, Ridley is the per-game WR5 in PPR
leagues. Aside from increased volume, Ridley’s fantasy output
has been lifted by the fact that he’s finally converting
on his deep targets and endzone looks. In the first seven weeks
of the year, Ridley held an 18-percent catch rate on targets 20-plus
yards downfield. In recent weeks, that’s jumped to 43 percent.
Ridley’s longest receptions of the year, a 41-yarder and
47-yard catch, have both come in the last three weeks.
Ridley is now the only legitimate target earner in Tennessee
and should see the volume to support a reasonable floor. If he
can continue to connect on his deep targets, he’ll have
a good chance of reaching his ceiling on a weekly basis.
Tyjae Spears was back in action last week for the first time
in nearly a month and this backfield returned to the 50-50 split
that fantasy managers expected to see entering the year. More
specifically, Pollard played 53 percent of snaps with Spears accounting
for the other 47 percent. A brief trip to the medical tent for
Pollard (knee) slightly skewed these numbers, but it was still
a healthy split throughout the game.
When an offense ranks bottom 10 in scoring like the Titans, it’s
hard for a running back to be a reliable fantasy option in a 50-50
split. They require elite efficiency, which is something that
we’ve seen from Pollard, but that’s not something
that you want to rely on against a defense like the Vikings.
If anything, this matchup favors Tyjae Spears. Last week, Spears
was the go-to back on passing downs. He played 100 percent of
snaps on third downs and in the two-minute drill. He also played
79 percent of snaps in the 4th quarter when the Titans were down
two scores and playing catch-up. The Titans are six-point underdogs
and could be playing from behind for the majority of the game.
If that’s the case, we could be seeing a lot of Spears this
week.
For those who have stashed Nick Chubb on their bench and waited
for him to return to form, you may be in for a vintage performance
on Sunday. One thing is for certain, Chubb will have the opportunity
to run all over the Saints’ defense. Since returning from
injury, he’s been the Browns’ primary ball carrier,
handling 75 percent of the backfield’s carries. In a game
with a one-point spread, the game should be tight and Chubb should
see the rock for all four quarters. Chubb should get plenty of
touches and this is a matchup where he should make the most of
them. The New Orleans defense ranks 31st in yards allowed per
carry and 30th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. If
Chubb is going to find his groove, it’ll be against this
defense.
Following the departure of Amari Cooper, Cedric Tillman has stepped
up and made plays for the Cleveland offense. He’s delivered three
straight WR1 performances and has had a nose for the endzone,
scoring three times in as many games. Tillman’s target earning
metrics (0.23 TPRR) aren’t other-worldly, but they have been strong.
He’ll continue to be a featured piece of this offense and should
take advantage of a secondary that is now missing Marshon Lattimore.
The Saints’ defensive struggles don’t stop with their
front seven, they’ve been susceptible through the air as
well. New Orleans’ 244.6 passing yards allowed per game
ranks 4th through ten weeks. Jameis Winston’s aggressive
nature has regularly paid off against suspect secondaries, as
we saw when he threw for 334 yards and three scores against the
Ravens. As a pocket passer, Winston requires multiple touchdown
passes to have an impactful day in your lineup. The Saints have
been giving up heaps of yardage through the air, but they have
not given up many touchdowns. Through 10 games, they’ve
allowed just eight passing TDs, half of which belong to Baker
Mayfield. The way touchdowns are scored (rushing vs. passing)
is flukey, but this is something to consider if you’re looking
into streaming Winston this week.
Cedric Tillman has been the star of the show in recent weeks,
but Jerry Jeudy has been hanging around as well. In the Browns’
last two games, Jeudy has accounted for 19.5 and 23.9 percent
of the targets. Anyone who can contend for a 20-percent target
share is worth considering against the defense that allows the
fourth-most yards per game through the air. Jeudy can be a Flex
option for teams dealing with multiple injuries or players on
bye.
Fade: N/A
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
With the Saints lacking legitimate weapons at wide receiver,
we once again saw a significant role for Taysom Hill in the offense.
He played 43 percent of snaps and racked up 50 yards from scrimmage
on two receptions and four carries. Hill would have been the TE1
overall on the week if he did not have an 80-yard touchdown nullified
by a penalty.
Hill has a similar outlook this week. He’ll push for a
50-percent snap share which should come with a handful of designed
looks. Hill will maintain his role in the red zone and offers
a strong ceiling thanks to his usage in goal-to-go situations.
He is a boom-bust option with a bit less risk than usual due to
his elevated usage in recent weeks.
At this point, we know who Marquez Valdes-Scantling is. He is
a vertical threat who struggles to earn targets and is mostly
out there just doing cardio. We saw exactly that last week. Valdes-Scantling
drew just 12 percent of the targets last week but managed to connect
on multiple deep looks for a 3/109/2 stat line. Don’t expect
him to do this every week. A complete airball is more likely than
him recreating this stat line. This archetype of player only belongs
in lineups in the deepest of leagues.
With Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) having already been ruled out
for Sunday’s visit to Motown, the Jaguars figure to lean heavily
on their running game in an effort to control the ball and keep
Detroit’s offense off the field. They’d love to have both of their
top backs available for such an endeavor, but Bigsby, who has
been the more effective of the two this season, hurt his ankle
in Week 10 and hasn’t practiced. With the team having a bye in
Week 12, it wouldn’t be remotely surprising to see Bigsby held
out in hopes that the extra rest will get him back on the field
while only missing one game. Last Sunday, Etienne ran the ball
11 times for 44 yards, his best output since Week 4, and he should
get plenty of chances this Sunday, too. Then again, the Lions
might just bury the Jags or stack the box to force Mac Jones to
beat them. Still, as a flex or maybe an RB3, Etienne could be
worth taking a chance on.
Against the Vikings, Jones completed 14 passes for 111 yards.
Tight ends accounted for 10 catches and 81 yards. That left just
four receptions and 30 yards for the receivers and running backs.
Thomas, Jacksonville’s promising rookie, had two catches for 12
yards among his three targets -- Gabe Davis had one catch in four
targets. Maybe the game gets out of hand, and Detroit plays soft,
allowing Jones to rack up some meaningless production in extended
garbage time. Maybe they don’t. When the only realistic path to
fantasy appeal hinges on opponent indifference, you should stay
away.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Goff was on a massive heater for about a month, but his numbers
have dipped over the last three weeks. That included a five-interception
performance against the Texans on Sunday Night Football, and a
145-yard, 1-TD effort versus Green Bay the week before. The game
that should be of greater interest to fantasy owners, however,
is the Week 8 meeting with the Titans in which Goff completed
just 12 passes for 85 yards in a 52-14 blowout over Tennessee.
Granted, he satisfied fantasy owners by accounting for four TDs
(three passing, one receiving), but it offers a glimpse of what
could happen Sunday in what looks like a complete mismatch with
the Jaguars. If the Lions get up big early, we might see a lot
of handoffs and maybe even more snaps for Hendon Hooker. It’s
a wrinkle that introduces some unusual risk into an otherwise
plus matchup.
While it hasn’t been a great sophomore season for LaPorta, who
shined as a rookie, he looked to be on his way to a big game last
Sunday night when a shoulder injury put him out of action. Even
with that, he still led the team with a season-high 66 yards on
three receptions and a touchdown. While head coach Dan Campbell
has indicated he is “hopeful” that LaPorta will be ready to roll
against the Jaguars, classifying the injury as day-to-day, you
have to look at the big picture and wonder if they’d really trot
out one of their top playmakers in a game where they should roll.
For fantasy owners, it’d be easier if Lions made LaPorta inactive.
Then it’s cut and dry. In reality, it should be pretty cut and
dry either way. If LaPorta is in uniform, you can’t trust his
level of involvement enough to put him in your lineup.
While he hasn’t been lights out every week, Kraft is close to
being a no-brainer, having scored five times over the last six
games and topping 50 yards in half of them. He just feels like
a player on the rise. Of course, Green Bay is a team loaded with
young talent, and because of that you end up with a lot of fluctuation
from game to game where one week it’s Reed, and the next it’s
Romeo Doubs or Christian Watson. Kraft separates from that to
a degree by being the clear No. 1 tight end, and the week off
has helped him get healthy, shedding the red non-contact jersey
in practice. While the Bears have a strong pass defense, the Patriots
were able to work the intermediate game with some success, which
included TE Austin Hooper leading the club with a 3-64-0 line.
Even in a matchup that isn’t great, Kraft has TE1 value.
After playing at an MVP level to close out the 2023 campaign,
Love was inked to a huge deal that elevated expectations for what
he’d do this year and beyond. Instead, the first nine weeks have
been challenging. He injured his knee in Brazil, missed two games,
looked rusty upon returning, then hurt his groin in Week 8 and
had to be replaced by Malik Willis. He played that Sunday but
looked compromised. If anyone in Green Bay needed the bye, it
was Love. Now, the question becomes how much did the extra week
do for his health? We’ll start to get answers this week. Love
played well in two meetings with the Bears last year, passing
for 561 yards and 5 TDs combined. Chicago’s weakness has been
the running game, though, and we’ve seen the Packers run wild
on opponents at times. Add it all up, and Love would make a risk/reward
play as your starting QB.
Fade: N/A
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Obviously, the big story out of Chicago this week is the firing
of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, who was replaced by passing
game coordinator Thomas Brown. Will it make a difference? The
jury is out. Owners of any Bears receivers might argue that it
couldn’t get much worse. That includes Moore, who was doubtless
drafted several rounds ahead of Rome Odunze or Keenan Allen and
therefore wears the sting of disappointment more acutely. Ever
since posting a 5-105-2 line against the Panthers back on Oct.
6, Moore has logged 13 receptions, 104 yards, and 0 TDs combined
across four games. The main reason he occupies this space is that
sometimes new play callers will prioritize getting the ball to
their top guys, and Moore is WR1 in Chicago. Then again, even
last year when he was racking up over 1,300 yards, he didn’t have
great games versus the Packers with six catches and 89 yards in
two meetings. You’re justified in keeping Moore on the bench,
but you can roll the dice on him as a WR3 to see if Brown finds
creative ways to get him involved.
Given that, over his last three games, Williams has averaged
156 yards passing per game without a touchdown, you probably don’t
need to be told to fade him in this Sunday’s NFC North battle.
What this really comes down is the Waldron firing, and how some
might take it as an opportunity to get the No. 1 overall pick
in your lineup. That would be a mistake. Chicago’s problems on
offense go beyond the play calling, and the reality is you’re
not going to reinvent the wheel in six days. The Packers are coming
off their bye and should be healthy in a game they need to have
to keep any realistic hope of chasing down Detroit (or even Minnesota)
atop the division. Green Bay has done a nice job versus younger
QBs (Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, C.J. Stroud), so make sure
you keep away from Williams here.
Davante Adams last suited up for the Raiders back in Week 3 and
it should come as no surprise that Jakobi Meyers has ascended
into the clear-cut WR1 role in the Las Vegas offense. Meyers has
received over nine targets per game over his past five starts
and he’s been quietly very productive with his opportunities
despite being in one of the worst offenses in the league. Meyers
has made at least five catches in each of those contests, he’s
scored twice, and he’s averaged over 16 PPR fantasy points
per game during this stretch.
Meyers now has a difficult on-paper matchup against a Miami defense
that has given up the sixth-fewest PPR fantasy points per game
to opposing wide receivers. It’s worth noting that opposing
teams were beating the Dolphins so badly when Tua was out that
they really were not leaning on their passing games very often.
In the three games since Tua’s return, opposing offenses
have been passing the ball quite a bit more against them. In fact,
in each of those three games, two opposing wide receivers have
reached at least 11 PPR fantasy points against Miami, making Meyers
a strong bet to maintain his usual low-end WR2 status.
The reality is that there isn’t much to like about this
Las Vegas offense outside of superstar rookie tight end Brock
Bowers and veteran WR Jakobi Meyers, so don’t take this
“on-the-fence” rating for Alexander Mattison as much
more than a “break glass in case of emergency.” Mattison
has averaged just 3.3 yards per carry this season - a number that
looks better than pathetic when compared to his teammates’
numbers. More importantly though, is Mattison has been somewhat
involved in the passing game. He failed to catch a pass in his
most recent game against the Bengals, but he had previously made
15 receptions in the four games prior to that one - all of which
featured him as the lead back for the Raiders.
Mattison now faces a Dolphins defense that has given up the 11th-most
fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, including five
receptions to each of James Cook and Kyren Williams over the past
two weeks.
He’s not a strong bet to be anything more than a Flex play
even in PPR formats, but with four touchdowns scored already this
season, there’s reason to believe that the Raiders running
back could produce usable fantasy numbers by getting into the
end zone and catching a few passes even if he’s unproductive
on a yards-per-carry basis.
Zamir White was considered a strong bet to lead the Raiders’
backfield coming into this season and he did so over the first
month of the season, but things have taken a very harsh turn in
recent weeks. While he managed to see six carries, including converting
one for a touchdown in the Raiders’ most recent game against the
Bengals, White only actually saw the field on seven snaps, finishing
far behind both Mattison and teammate Ameer Abdullah in that metric.
It’s always possible that White sneaks into the end zone
again even if he has very little playing time, but even if he
does, that alone is probably not enough to make him a viable fantasy
option in anything other than the deepest of leagues. White hasn’t
exceeded 50 rushing yards in any game and he’s only made
one total reception since Week 2.
LV FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
LV FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
LV FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
LV FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Tua Tagaovailoa’s return to the field has certainly been a good
thing for the Miami offense as a whole, but unfortunately, things
just haven’t fully clicked with him and his pass-catchers, namely
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Hill has managed to scrounge together
three straight WR3-type performances that didn’t kill his managers,
but the ceiling simply hasn’t been there to make him the dynamic
fantasy superstar that we’re used to. Hill has now been targeted
just nine total times over his past two games - both of which
were competitive games - and he was held to just 16 yards against
the Rams. While he did score a touchdown in that game - his first
since Week 1 - this is still a very concerning trend for fantasy
managers, especially given the reports that he’s been dealing
with a wrist injury.
Hill’s ceiling is too high for most managers to consider
benching, but he’s not the usual must-start WR1 option that
he has been in the past. Right now, Hill is more of a WR2 who
has WR1 upside but could easily perform as a WR3 if he continues
not to see volume.
Tight end Jonnu Smith has been the most consistent pass-catching
weapon for the Dolphins over their past five games, having made
at least three catches in each of those contests. He has only
scored one touchdown during this stretch so his numbers have been
muted, but Smith has averaged over six targets per contest over
this five-game stretch, making him a viable bye-week fill-in option.
He’s especially interesting this week as he faces a Raiders defense
that has given up the fifth-highest points per game to opposing
tight ends, including huge performances to both Travis Kelce and
Mike Gesicki over their past two contests.
The 2024 season for Waddle has been nothing short of disastrous.
A former weekly WR2 fantasy starter, Waddle has been terrible
in just about every game this season and he’s now become
a player who fantasy managers could strongly consider dropping
outright. It was understandable that his production would be bad
when the Dolphins were without Tagovailoa, but things have been
horrible even since Tua’s return. Waddle has seen just 14
targets over the past three games with Tua behind center. The
Dolphins are still struggling to get things going consistently
on offense and with Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane being
the clear focal points of the offense, Waddle is a player who
fantasy managers will want to keep a “see it before you
trust it” approach with.
There was some concern that Cooper Kupp’s role might be
reduced upon his return to the lineup in Week 8, but that certainly
hasn’t come to fruition over the past three weeks as he’s
now seen 29 targets over this most recent stretch. Kupp has returned
to his former glory as a locked-in WR1 and he now faces a Patriots
defense that has struggled at times to contain slot receivers
this season. As long as the Rams don’t get out to too big
of a lead, this should be another 10-target game for Kupp.
Before anyone panics, this “on-the-fence” rating
doesn’t mean that anyone should be benching Puka Nacua,
but rather that we should just be aware that this could be a more
difficult matchup for him. Nacua had a terrible performance in
Week 9, but he’s turned in two very solid performances in
his both Week 8 and Week 10, so we shouldn’t be too worried
about his usage in this offense. The real worry here, if there
is one, is that this week he’s in line to see a lot of coverage
from New England’s top cornerback, Christian Gonzalez. Gonzalez
is one of the league’s premier shadow coverage cornerbacks
and he’s been tough to create separation on this season,
so don’t be surprised if this is a lower-than-usual volume
game for Nacua. Still, he’s seen 28 total targets over his
past three games and the Rams have no problem designing plays
specifically to get him open, so he should still be able to deliver
enough of a floor to be a viable WR2 option even in this difficult
matchup.
With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back in the lineup and soaking
up all the volume in the passing game, there just is not enough
to go around for other players to be useful for fantasy. Demarcus
Robinson did have two huge performances in Weeks 8 and 9 when
he scored a pair of touchdowns in each game, but this past week
we saw what is much more likely to be closer to the norm from
him going forward when he managed to make just one reception for
23 yards on five targets against the Dolphins.
Robinson is a solid player who fits the Rams offense well as
a down-the-field playmaker, but his volume is going to be an issue
most weeks. That doesn’t mean that he can’t get into
the end zone on a big play and save his fantasy week, but it does
mean that his floor could be literally zero receptions. If you’re
in a deep enough format, then he’s not completely useless,
but he’s probably not a player that should be in lineups
right now in most normal leagues.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Rookie quarterbacks in low-talent offenses are almost always
going to be difficult to trust for fantasy purposes, so it’s
tough to really get too excited about Drake Maye. Still, there
are things to be excited about from him, particularly with his
willingness to run the ball. Maye has now averaged over 44 yards
per game on the ground as a starter and one of those games saw
him get injured and removed in the first quarter, so his true
average may be closer to the 50 yards per game mark on the ground.
That alone makes him an interesting fantasy option, but Maye has
also averaged over 225 yards per game as a passer in the four
full games he’s played this season. That’s nothing
spectacular, but it’s a lot better than most of the young,
mobile quarterbacks throughout the league.
Maye did fail to deliver for fantasy managers this past week
when he faced the Bears, but that was also an extremely unusual
game script for the Patriots as they got out to a 13-0 lead by
halftime and spent most of the rest of the game just running out
the clock on a bad Chicago team that couldn’t move the ball
on offense.
That type of game script isn’t really in the cards against
the Rams who, for all of their struggles, have remained a pretty
good offense overall this season. That should allow Maye to be
much more involved both as a passer and even as a runner here
in Week 11, making him a strong bet to be one of the best streaming
options at the position.
Rhamondre Stevenson’s early-season production was disastrous
at times, but we’ve now seen the offense shift into being
a much more dynamic unit under Drake Maye and that has allowed
Stevenson to be even more involved and given him more upside to
get into the end zone.
Stevenson has now carried the ball 50 times over the past three
weeks, adding nine receptions, and he’s scored three touchdowns.
This type of usage is extremely hard to come by in today’s
NFL as most teams are splitting up their backfield touches much
more than the Patriots have been, and it’s why Stevenson
is a good high-floor fantasy option right now.
The only real concern here is that the Patriots have had the
benefit of facing three bad offenses in a row in the Jets, Titans,
and Bears, so they’ve had the ability to run the ball quite
often without the worry that they’d fall behind too far
on the scoreboard. While the Rams are not a true top offense,
they are typically able to put points on the board against most
teams, so Stevenson’s carries could be a bit more limited
in this one than they have been in recent weeks. Still, Stevenson’s
own usage in the passing game gives him additional ways to be
involved even if the Patriots fall behind, so don’t be too
worried.
Fade: Patriots Pass-Catchers
The Patriots offense as a whole has been worlds better since
their move to Drake Maye and while just about every pass-catcher
in the offense has seen both their floor and their ceiling improve,
none of them has really emerged as a true alpha in the offense.
The top two receivers at the moment seem to be Demario Douglas
and Kayshon Boutte, but even they have only seen 17 and 18 targets
respectively over their past three games. Those numbers might
be fine in a more dynamic, high-scoring offense, but the Patriots
just are not good enough to turn those numbers into viable fantasy
production most weeks. Hunter Henry remains a potential bye-week
fill-in at tight end as he’s seeing decent volume as well,
so fantasy managers could consider him if they’re in need,
but we’ve seen his floor be low-single-digits in multiple
games this season so it’s tough to be very excited about
his prospects to be a difference-maker at the position.
In a game where productive Falcon receivers Drake London and
Darnell Mooney will draw the attention of Patrick Surtain II,
Riley Moss, as well as safety Brandon Jones, tight end Kyle Pitts
stands to draw more of Kirk Cousins eye. Pitts is thus far having
his best year since his rookie campaign, currently 9th among tight
ends in FPts/G. He draws an opportunity for high volume against
a Broncos defense that is middling against tight ends, and carries
a mid-TE1 value.
While fellow wide receiver Drake London was the talk of the town
coming into the season, and has certainly played well, Mooney
has been a pleasant surprise, coming into Week 11 just three spots
behind London at WR18. Riley Moss has been a solid corner this
year for the Broncos, but Mooney will benefit from lingering in
London’s shadow and facing up with Moss rather than Surtain
for much of the day. It’s still not an easy task, especially
with a fierce Broncos pass rush limiting time for downfield strikes
and quality safety help over the top, but Mooney still carries
some Flex value for this one.
Without rushing ability, capable quarterbacks such as Kirk Cousins
generally need to draw a shootout or a vulnerable opposing defense
in order to offer QB1 value. Cousins gets neither of those things
this week, facing a Broncos team whose games have seen a combined
total of under 38 points, and stifle opposing passing attacks.
Cousins ranks as no more than a backend QB2.
It’ll be Drake London who stands to draw the most of Surtain’s
attention. It’s attention that few receivers would desire, as
outside of a surprising outlier performance by Zay Flowers, no
other WR1 has put up more than 10.2 points against him and the
Broncos this season. The likes of Mike Evans (2.7 pts) and DK
Metcalf (4.4 pts) have been erased by Surtain. George Pickens
(3.9) and Garrett Wilson (6.6) did not fare much better. London,
due to Surtain’s abilities, carries a very low floor this week
and with Cousins certainly not having Lamar Jackson’s legs to
create space, London has a low ceiling as well. He’s a tough but
reasonable fade.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
With 16.1 points, Bo Nix had a mostly uneventful day in Week
10. But against the Chiefs defense, that’s honestly a compliment.
This week, Nix – the league’s QB16 – draws a
much more beatable Falcons’ defense, and one that has given
a whopping 304 yards rushing to opposing QB’s along with
3 rushing touchdowns. Nix, who has 290 rushing yards and 4 rushing
touchdowns this season, is in good position to take advantage
of the Falcons issues, placing him inside the fringes of the QB1
conversation.
Courtland Sutton takes a 24% target share into a favorable matchup
against a Falcons team. Atlanta has given up the 9th most points
to opposing receivers this year, putting Sutton on the right side
of the Flex conversation this week.
It’s hard to say what happened last week with Javonte Williams
vanishing and Austin Estime suddenly getting a significant role
in the Broncos offense. Harder yet is to say whether it will continue
this week, whether we’ll see something closer to a split,
or whether Williams returns to the forefront of backfield opportunities.
The coaching staff has stated that Estime has earned more opportunities,
but only time will tell what that amounts to. As is, this offense
is not productive enough to utilize a running back in a committee
nor with serious question marks. Both backs seem wise to sit.
Geno Smith is currently No.12 in FPts/G among quarterbacks who’ve
started multiple games this season, and faces a 49ers team that
has given up just 11 passing touchdowns to 10 interceptions, an
exact replica of Smith’s production this season. Smith will
likely need to volume his way to a Top 12 day to earn QB1 status.
Realistically, he should be thought of as more of a mid-QB2 for
this matchup.
Metcalf has fully returned to the practice field and looks ready
to go against the 49ers. San Francisco has handled Metcalf fairly
well during his career. Despite averaging 8.7 yards per target
during his career, he’s enjoyed just 6.7 yards per target
against the Niners. Metcalf does average a high number of targets
against the Seahawks division rivals (9.3), but the volume has
only been enough to make him a borderline WR2, rather than the
borderline WR1 he’s been this season. This is evidenced
by his meeting with the 49ers this year, where Metcalf saw just
3 catches for 48 yards on 11 targets. He should have a better
day this time around, but may have to scratch and claw for his
production.
Veteran wide receiver Tyler Lockett has been a thorn in the side
of the 49ers, including in a 4-65-1 performance against them earlier
this year. In six of his last eight games against the Niners,
he’s gone for at least 65 yards, and picked up 4 scores
during that time. Lockett is not who he used to be, and is struggling
to get into the top 50 among WR’s this season, but he is
in the Flex conversation for Week 11 – certainly in deeper
leagues.
Like Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has found harder days facing
off against the 49ers. For JSN, the fall off has been more spectacular.
In three games versus San Francisco, he’s recorded a sum
total of 11 catches for 119 yards with no scores, and has not
surpassed 53 yards nor 5 catches in any of those matchups. Smith-Njigba
is already facing a slide in production with Metcalf back on the
field, that fall may be more extreme for this weekend’s
matchup. He’s in WR4 territory against the Niners.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Brock Purdy draws a home matchup versus an improved but less-than-stellar
Seahawks pass defense, but has Christian McCaffrey back as a lethal
option out of the backfield. Purdy is currently 6th in points
per game and there’s no reason to expect his status will
be threatened in this one. He’s an easy QB1.
Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings have both given fantasy owners
WR2 production thus far this year. Deebo Samuel maintains WR1
upside, particularly with his regular participation on jet sweeps
and sometimes out of the backfield, but both receivers carry more
than enough upside to draw a start in your WR2 slot, including
this week.
In three games, Pearsall is averaging 9.5 points, which ranks
40th among wide receivers with multiple starts. He is already
proving valuable in Brandon Aiyuk’s absence, but has some work
to do in order to grab a more consistent, larger role in an offense
loaded with experienced, high-end talent. He’s worth a look in
deeper leagues, but carries a low floor into this matchup. Those
in leagues with standard scoring and roster sizes might want to
sit him for all but the most favorable matchups.
Jordan Mason did a fine job for fantasy owners while Christian
McCaffrey was out. But in McCaffrey’s return, Mason immediately
and completely returned to being a handcuff. He should be held
by managers but is buried on the bench for now.
An absurdly high workload has helped make Kareem Hunt a weekly
RB1 over the past two months, as the veteran has carried the ball
an average of nearly 21 times per game. His yards-per-carry number
is just 3.6 - well below the league average - but it almost doesn’t
matter on that kind of volume. This past week was Hunt’s
worst rushing performance of the season as he converted 14 carries
for just 35 yards and failed to get into the end zone for the
first time over his past five contests. However, we saw the return
of the “old” Kareern Hunt in this one - a dynamic
every-down back who also contributes in the passing game, as he
made seven catches for 65 yards, pushing him again into RB1 territory
despite the low rushing totals.
Hunt now faces a Buffalo defense whose ugly performances have
largely flown under the radar. Other than the Panthers, who everyone
knows are terrible, the Bills have actually given up more fantasy
points per game to opposing running backs than any other team
this season. Much of that has been due to the passing game usage
that opposing backs have put together in games where they’ve
fallen behind and the Bills have been willing to concede short-yardage
passes to running backs, but that’s not the whole story.
The Bills have given up over 100 rushing yards per game to the
position and most recently allowed Jonathan Taylor to rush for
114 yards against them on 21 carries in Week 10.
Hunt is a strong bet to build upon his impressive streak of RB1
fantasy performances and he could even be a dark horse to finish
as the overall RB1 for the week.
While the Bills have had no luck stopping opposing running backs
so far this season, they have been slightly above average at defending
opposing quarterbacks. This doesn’t bode so well for Chiefs
QB Patrick Mahomes who has struggled in 2024 to put together the
high-end performances that fantasy managers have become accustomed
to from him.
Mahomes has done reasonably well over the past three weeks, including
a three-touchdown performance against the Buccaneers in Week 9,
but this three-game stretch has been significantly better than
what we’ve seen from him over the rest of the season so
it would not be surprising to see him go back to being a mid-to-low-end
QB2 this week. What fantasy managers are really hoping for in
this one is that the Bills are able to get things going with their
own offense which would put the pressure on Kansas City to open
up their passing game.
The Chiefs have relied heavily on their short passing game and
running game to move the chains, so downfield threats like DeAndre
Hopkins are naturally going to be inconsistent producers for fantasy
in that type of system. Hopkins’ presence has seemed to
unlock Mahomes a bit, which is great, but Hopkins himself has
still been held under 10 fantasy points in two of his three games
with the Chiefs. Of course, the other game saw him catch eight
passes for 86 yards and two scores against the Buccaneers, so
the ceiling is certainly there for him to be a WR1, but managers
will need to hope that this is a high-scoring game for Hopkins
to see more total targets come his way.
Players like Xavier Worthy are always going to be difficult to
predict from a fantasy standpoint but we now have a three-game
sample size of Worthy being the WR2 behind DeAndre Hopkins, and
things aren’t very exciting. Worthy was fine in his first
game alongside Hopkins as he saw a season-high eight targets come
his way, and he did score a touchdown to save his day despite
the fact that he only made four receptions for 37 yards with the
higher-than-usual opportunity share. Since then, however, Worthy
has only seen six total targets over his past two games, converting
just one of them for 11 yards and no score.
We’ve seen that Worthy is capable of converting on an extremely
low target share, but it’s tough to bank on that when the
offense is full of other players who are gobbling up such a high
share of the touches.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Khalil Shakir has still not delivered a single 20-point PPR fantasy
game this season, but his consistency in providing WR2/WR3 numbers
has been impressive. Other than his Week 6 dud against an excellent
Jets secondary, Shakir has managed to score at least 10 PPR fantasy
points in every game this season despite the fact that he’s
scored just two touchdowns.
With Keon Coleman already ruled out and Amari Cooper potentially
out for a third straight game with a wrist injury, Shakir is the
next man up as the top target-earner in this Buffalo passing attack.
Add in the fact that the Chiefs have been particularly vulnerable
to slot receivers this season and this is an excellent opportunity
for him to meet and likely even expand upon his already impressive
weekly averages.
James Cook scored just four rushing touchdowns over his first
two full seasons in the NFL, but 2024 has seen him blossom into
one of the most efficient goal-line backs, scoring an impressive
eight rushing touchdowns over his first nine starts of the season.
He’s still only reached the 100-yard rushing mark once this
season and his passing game usage has seen a bit of a dip, but
Cook is averaging over 16 touches per game in one of the league’s
best offenses, making him a must-start in just about any matchup.
Of course, this week, Cook has the unfortunate task of facing
a Kansas City defense that has allowed the fewest points per game
to the RB position in 2024, so this is a much more difficult situation
than usual. In fact, The Chiefs have given up just 473 rushing
yards to running backs this season - nearly 100 yards fewer than
any other defense.
Cook may not be the high-end RB1 this week that we’ve seen
him be throughout most of the season, but he’s still a must-start
for most managers. It’s difficult to find backs who see
this type of volume, especially in good offenses, so don’t
overthink it.
The volume continues to be there for Buffalo tight end Dalton
Kincaid, but it’s hard to look past the reality that the
production just has not been there. Kincaid has now failed to
reach double-digit PPR fantasy points in seven of his first 10
games this season and his best game of the season is just 13.1
points. The tight end position being terrible overall has allowed
him to be a low-end TE1/high-end TE2 on the season, but the hopes
of him delivering meaningful fantasy production seem to be at
an all-time low right now, given that he’s also dealing
with a knee injury that he suffered in Week 10.
Assuming he’s active, fantasy managers probably don’t
have many better options than Kincaid to put in the tight end
spot, but there’s an additional risk of Kincaid missing
the game or being knocked out with an injury, so understand that
this is a riskier situation than normal.
Wide receiver Tee Higgins returned to practice and was listed
as limited on Wednesday and Thursday. His status for Week 11 remains
to be seen and much hinges on his return. A Joe Burrow with his
full arsenal would be a mid-range QB1 play, even against a difficult
Chargers defense. If Higgins remains sidelined, a productive Burrow
would still be startable, but more of a backend QB1 versus a defense
that has as many picks (9) as passing touchdowns allowed.
No one’s fantasy football status hinges more on Higgins
health than tight end Mike Gesicki. Gesicki is currently TE16,
overall, but in the last five weeks – of which Higgins has
mostly been absent – the Bengals tight end has ranked 8th
in points per game. The Chargers are one of two teams who are
yet to give up a touchdown to opposing tight ends, so Gesicki
would be more of a floor play than a high ceiling one, but he
would flirt with TE1 status in the absence of Higgins.
As for Tee Higgins himself, his possible return calls for proceeding
with some caution, especially against the Chargers but if he’s
active, short-handed managers may want to throw caution to the
wind due to his upside.
Running back Chase Brown is 3rd in points at his position over
the last three weeks, and has emerged as a three-down threat in
the absence of Zack Moss. While there is some risk that recently
acquired Khalil Herbert could start to develop a role that at
least nips at Brown’s heels, the biggest threat to Brown’s performance
this week is likely to be the Chargers front -7. The Chargers
have allowed just 2 touchdowns to backs and the 3rd fewest points
to the position. Just four running backs have produced double-digit
performances against them as well. Chase Brown is probably more
of a Flex than a RB2 with upside for this weekend.
Fade: N/A
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Wideout Ladd McConkey had a disappointing 2 target performance
last week against the Titans, but it was a game where the Chargers
only threw the ball 18 times. McConkey did manage to convert those
2 targets in 52 yards, nearly 1/3 of Justin Herbert's total passing
yardage. McConkey had seen at least 6 targets in six straight
games prior to last week, and facing a far more formidable opposing
offense in the Bengals this week, his targets should rebound.
The Bengals are middling against receivers overall, and thus McConkey
carries some Flex value for Week 11.
While running back Gus Edwards returned last week, his involvement
did not deter Dobbins from getting 18 touches, right about his
season average. Dobbins had one his lesser productive games, producing
just 55 total yards, but is still 16th in FPts/G among running
backs.
The Bengals have been cold to opposing backs, giving up the 8th
fewest points, but much of that has come in the form of limiting
their production in the receiving game (just 195 receiving yards
allowed), which is hardly Dobbins bread-and-butter (only 112 receiving
yards). Dobbins strong suit lines up well with his opponent, and
coupled with playing at home, he can continue to be looked at
as a RB2.
Justin Herbert draws a Bengals defense that has given up the
5th most points to the position and has given up at least 28.1
fantasy points to four different quarterbacks. Yet it’s
been feast or famine, with three different starting quarterbacks
failing to reach double figures against this otherwise vulnerable
defense.
Taking a closer look at the numbers, it’s been QB’s who are highly
mobile who have really hurt the Bengals – Lamar Jackson (35.4
and 30.9 pts), Jalen Hurts (35.1 pts) and Jayden Daniels (28.1
pts). Conversely, those who have struggled mightily against the
Bengals are primarily journeymen quarterbacks playing for struggling
teams (Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew). Justin Herbert, while
just 26th in FPts/G, is more capable than Brissett or Minshew,
and his mere single interception this season supports that. Herbert
falls somewhere between the extremes in this game, not quite able
to dissect the Bengals in the manner of the more mobile quarterbacks,
but with a safer floor than the Brissett’s of the NFL. He’s in
QB1 consideration in deep leagues, and a solid choice as a Superflex.
Wide receiver Quentin Johnston is becoming a largely touchdown
dependent receiver but he’s still taken a significant step
forward in his second season. He struck again last week despite
seeing just 2 targets. Drawing the Bengals, the league’s
WR37 in FPts/G has a fair shot to make it three weeks in a row
finding the end zone. The Bengals have surrendered 17 touchdown
passes this year, and Johnston owns a 45% share of Justin Herbert’s
touchdown tosses. He’s a boom/bust candidate for Flex whose
lean is towards a boom.
Tight end Will Dissly finds himself in a similar situation as
he did against the Titans a week ago. Drawing a favorable situation
in Week 10, he provided a respectable floor (5-30-0) for shorthanded
managers. It’s likely that he’ll be able to do the same again
this week, against a Bengals defense that has not had a lot of
answers for opposing tight ends, giving up the 4th most points
to the position. He’s not a TE1 by any means, but if you’re digging
at the position this week, you could certainly do worse.
Edwards picked up 10 carries in his first game back for the Chargers,
which is in line with the 9.6 carries per game he’s averaged
through five games this year. While his style of play lines up
better against the Bengals, his absolute lack of involvement in
the passing game – 1 target on the year - still represents
millstone dragging his floor down. It’s going to be hard
for the Chargers to control this game well enough to feed him
the carries that he’ll likely need to have a productive
day. Edwards is best left on your bench until facing a more friendly
opponent.
Nico Collins has been activated off of injured reserve and is
currently expected to play on Monday night, which will mark his
first action since Week 5. Collins was producing as a high-end
WR1 prior to the hamstring injury, so it’d be almost impossible
to consider benching him this week, especially against a team
that is struggling as much as the Cowboys are. The only risk here,
and the reason that he’s an “On the Fence” player
is that we don’t know for absolute certain that he’ll
be on the field on Monday night, and unfortunately, there’s
a high likelihood that we won’t have that confirmation until
after the majority of, if not all of the other games have been
played for the week. This adds a point of risk for managers who
are unlikely to have other viable fantasy options within this
same game. One potential solution would be to place Collins in
your “Flex” spot and leave one roster spot open in
case you need to add someone from the Texans or Cowboys as a last-minute
fill-in. We might be overstating the risk here, but it’s
worth making the smart moves to give yourself extra lineup flexibility.
Collins’ teammate, Tank Dell, has been filling in as the top
wide receiver for the Texans over the past few weeks with Collins
and Stefon Diggs both out. Dell managed to see an impressive nine
targets in each of his past two games, but even that volume didn’t
allow him to do much in Week 10 as he caught just five passes
for 39 yards against the Lions. Now fantasy managers have the
added variable of Collins’ return to the lineup. Collins played
in the first five games of the season before he was injured and
Dell was held to under 12 PPR fantasy points in four of those
contests. This isn’t to say that Dell can’t be productive with
Collins on the field as we saw this duo do big things in 2023,
but the efficiency just has not been there for Dell this season.
Dell is more of a fantasy WR3 at the moment until we see that
he can continue to earn a high target share even with Collins
back in the lineup.
The healthy return of superstar WR Nico Collins certainly raises
both the ceiling and the floor for quarterback C.J. Stroud, but
even that probably won’t be enough for fantasy managers
to feel confident about putting him in their starting lineups
right now. It’d be hard to overstate just how disappointing
Stroud has been as the QB was selected as a locked-in QB1 in most
drafts, but he’s barely produced as a QB2 on the season.
Stroud has just three games where he’s thrown for multiple
touchdowns, he’s been held scoreless twice, and he hasn’t
yet rushed for a touchdown in 2024. The ceiling just hasn’t
been there.
We may still see Stroud get back to being the stud fantasy producer
that he was as a rookie, but this particular matchup against the
Cowboys is not likely to be conducive to that goal. The Cowboys’
offense looks like it might be the worst in the league now that
they’re without Dak Prescott, so the chances of Stroud being a
low-volume passer this week are very high as the Texans will almost
certainly have the opportunity to lean heavily on Joe Mixon and
their running game rather than take the additional risk of passing
the ball.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Despite all the jokes about Dak Prescott, the truth is that the
Dallas offense is in absolute shambles without him behind center.
We saw it on display this past week when Cooper Rush stepped in,
completing 13 of his 23 pass attempts for a measly 45 yards and
no touchdowns. That was also in a game where the Cowboys trailed
almost immediately and only fell further and further behind as
the game went on, so there was no reason excuse for them to not
be passing the ball more.
Including Trey Lance’s six pass attempts, the Cowboys threw the
ball 30 times, which is a fine number, but the efficiency almost
could not physically be worse than what it was. This whole situation
points to a very ugly outlook for the offense in Dallas and, unfortunately,
for the prospects of CeeDee Lamb repeating as the top-scoring
fantasy wide receiver this season.
However, not all hope is lost, as Lamb still saw an impressive
34-percent target share in this game, catching six of the 10 passes
that came his way. It only resulted in 21 yards, of course, but
we have to think that even the worst passing games will result
in better efficiency than that in most games.
Realistically, Lamb has to be looked at as more of a low-end
WR1 or high-end WR2 going forward, but he’s not completely
dead as a fantasy asset because the Cowboys have shown that they’re
going to continue to pepper him with targets no matter the situation.
A 31-point home loss to a division rival is absolutely brutal
for team morale and it’s tough to be overly excited about Rico
Dowdle’s 53 scoreless rushing yards and three receptions for three
yards, but there may still be some hope left. On a positive note,
the Cowboys finally seem to have decided that Dowdle is the lead
back in this offense. That doesn’t mean that Ezekiel Elliott,
Dalvin Cook, and even fullback Hunter Luepke won’t see any touches,
but what it does mean is that Dowdle is likely to see somewhere
between 14 to 20 touches per game. Of course, they might be low-value
touches as long as the Cowboys’ offense continues to be as bad
as it was against the Eagles, but a 20-touch potential is not
nothing either.
Fade: Everyone Else
The Cowboys’ offense was extremely consolidated to begin
with even with Dak Prescott behind center, but now things are
even worse. Jake Ferguson’s handful of targets per game
could have hypothetically resulted in some touchdowns with Prescott
behind center, but now the team is a significantly worse offense
that will probably only be in scoring position a couple of times
per game, so that touchdown upside is significantly limited. Other
receivers like Jalen Tolbert and Jalen Brooks were barely seeing
usage even when the Cowboys were a good offense, so they’re
all safe to drop at this point.
