Chiefs @ Raiders - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: Winning is the name of the game in the NFL. While Alex Smith has done a great job of keeping his team in the playoff conversation in what might be the toughest division in football, the reality is that Smith, specifically his playing style, is just not built for fantasy production.

Smith has been able to avoid throwing interceptions and he has now gone five straight contests without tossing a pick. His fantasy numbers have left much to be desired, as he has also failed to throw a touchdown in three of his past four games. This includes a less-than-exciting game against the Seahawks at home in Week 11 when he threw for just 108 yards on the day. Smith has now thrown for fewer than 200 yards in five games this year and he has done so in three consecutive contests.

Sure, Smith is not doing much in the passing department, but none of his receivers have been very exciting from a fantasy standpoint either. Top wide receiver Dwayne Bowe had been on a decent string of fantasy production with at least five catches and 55-plus yards in each of his past four games, but he was shut down – as expected–- by the Seahawks’ excellent secondary in Week 11. Smith and his wide receivers still have not connected for a single touchdown so far in 2014. Remarkable.

Meanwhile, tight end Travis Kelce, who probably had the best chance for a nice day, was also quiet, as he caught just three passes for 37 yards. Kelce has now been held under 50 yards in four of his past five contests and he has scored just one touchdown over that span.

While the Chiefs appear to be a good candidate for a playoff run again this year, their passing game is certainly not the reason for that success. The upcoming game against the Raiders could help turn things around for this passing offense.

The Raiders have been fairly mediocre against opposing passing games so far, as well. They’ve conceded at least one passing touchdown in every game but one (Seattle) and they’ve given up multiple scores through the air in five games. Over their past two games against Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning, the Raiders have conceded a total of six passing touchdowns. The last time these two teams met was back in Week 15 of the 2013 season when Smith threw for a career-high five touchdowns, providing a bit of optimism in this contest. Still, Smith should not be trusted as a QB1 in most leagues at this time.

Running Game Thoughts: If the Chiefs do end up making the playoffs this season, it will largely be because of the unbelievable skillset of running back Jamaal Charles. The NFL’s leading non-quarterback fantasy scorer from 2013 destroyed the Seahawks in Week 11 to the tune of 159 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Charles also added 19 yards as a receiver. It was his biggest yardage day of the season and continues his impressive stretch of five straight games with at least one touchdown. In fact, since returning from injury in Week 4, Charles has scored 10 total touchdowns. This impressive number puts him on pace to be one of the highest scoring non-quarterbacks once again and an easy, no-brainer RB1 in all scoring formats.

While backup Knile Davis has been too unpredictable to be utilized as a fantasy starter, he has shown plenty of flashes – a good sign in case Charles were to suffer another injury at some point this season. It doesn’t get much better from a matchup standpoint than the Oakland Raiders for a player like Jamaal Charles. Charles has pummeled the silver and black over his career, scoring nine touchdowns in the nine games he has played against them. In 2013, he his stat line against the Raiders was bordering on absurdity. In two contests, Charles rushed for just 98 yards, but caught 13 passes for 245 yards. While that alone would be impressive, it was his seven touchdowns in those two contests that really made fantasy owners ecstatic. Charles is a good bet to finish as the top-scoring running back this week.

Projections:
Alex Smith: 170 pass yds, 1 TD, 20 rush yds
Jamaal Charles: 125 rush yds, 2 TD, 20 rec yds, 1 TD
Dwayne Bowe: 50 rec yds
Travis Kelce: 50 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Rookie struggles are beginning to hit the Oakland Raiders’ quarterback Derek Carr. Carr, who had started the season off significantly better than just about anyone could have predicted, has stumbled over the past few weeks, failing to throw for 200 yards in three straight contests and four of his past five. His poor performance in San Diego this past week was the worst of his professional career so far, as he completed just 16 of his 34 pass attempts for a 172 yards. While he did not throw an interception, he did fumble the ball once and was unable to throw a touchdown.

Receivers Andre Holmes and James Jones haven’t done much over their past couple of contests, allowing tight end Mychal Rivera to make a splash on the fantasy market. His 24 catches for 224 yards and three touchdowns over his past four games lead the team in each of those categories. The Raiders will need him to have a big game again if they hope to get their first win of the season against the Kansas City Chiefs and their top-ranked pass defense. The Chiefs have allowed the fewest passing yards on the season, but their touchdown-to-interception ratio of 16-to-4 is not spectacular. They have also allowed at least one passing score in each game this season. The Chiefs have struggled a bit against opposing tight ends, as well, having conceded half of their 16 passing touchdowns to the tight end position. With Rivera playing as well as he has been, he looks like the best player to start in the Raiders passing game for Week 12.

Running Game Thoughts: Raiders, running game? What is that? The wheels have truly fallen off of this broken down car that is the Oakland running game and Darren McFadden has finally become just about as fantasy irrelevant as his fellow backfield counterpart Maurice Jones-Drew. McFadden has failed to hit even 60 yards on the ground in all but one of his games this season and he has scored just two touchdowns. While he has been able to supplement his poor rushing totals with some decent reception totals in PPR formats, it hasn’t been enough to keep him on fantasy radars. After rushing for just 14 yards on seven carries in Week 10, McFadden looked just as bad in Week 11 when he ran for just 20 yards on eight attempts. The coaching staff finally appears to have realized the lack of production from this position as third string back Latavius Murray began to get a few touches in the second half of the loss to the Chargers this past week. Murray, likely the most physically-talented back on the roster at this point, showed the spark that McFadden and Jones-Drew have lacked all year. He ran the ball four times for 43 yards while adding 16 more yards on three receptions.

Whoever the back will be, he will have a very tough day, as the Raiders go up against a Kansas City defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this year. While they have conceded an average of over 100 yards on the ground per game, the Chiefs’ impressive fantasy numbers come from the fact that they have somehow been able to keep every single running back they have faced out of the end zone and that includes Marshawn Lynch in Week 11. This should be the time that the Raiders give up on the 2014 season and begin to look at the future with Murray. This is Oakland, though, and it wouldn’t be at all surprising if McFadden sees the majority of touches out of this backfield and does nothing with it.

Projections:
Derek Carr: 180 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Darren McFadden: 40 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Latavius Murray: 20 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Andre Holmes: 50 rec yds
James Jones: 40 rec yds
Mychal Rivera: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Chiefs 24, Raiders 10 ^ Top

Rams @ Chargers - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: The quarterback situation in St. Louis has been a rollercoaster for a few years now as the team has dealt with a string of injuries to perceived franchise quarterback Sam Bradford. While one week won’t change that history of problems, veteran quarterback Shaun Hill appears to at least be bringing some stability to the position; something which was missing under the leadership of Austin Davis. Hill led the Rams to a shocking upset victory over the Denver Broncos in Week 11, throwing for 220 yards and a touchdown, but perhaps most importantly avoiding any turnovers. He completed the Rams’ first 40-plus yard pass downfield, which turned into a 63-yard score for former Tennessee Titan Kenny Britt, in the victory. Britt finished with four receptions for 128 yards and that touchdown, marking the eighth straight game that the receiver has caught at least two passes. Still, Britt remains a very unpredictable fantasy option with a low ceiling despite his two touchdowns over his past three games. Hill is not going to be a player who throws down the field with any sort of regularity, so don’t expect numerous big plays like this.

The Rams passing game will hope to make it two straight solid performances against AFC West opponents as they head to San Diego this week. The Chargers have been below average against the pass in most games, but have had a couple shining games against the Jets and Raiders; two of the worst aerial attacks in the league. The Rams certainly fall into that category as being among the worst so it would not be surprising to see the Chargers perform fairly well against them, but San Diego has been poor against opposing QBs as of late. They’ve conceded three games of three-plus passing touchdowns over their past five contests. Still, now is not the time to trust anyone in this passing game, even Jared Cook who is dealing with a lingering back injury and will be against a Chargers unit who has only allowed two touchdowns to the tight end position this season.

Running Game Thoughts: If there is one thing to be positive about from a fantasy standpoint in this St. Louis offense, it’s that the team seems to finally be committing to a running back. After going back and forth between Benny Cunningham, Zac Stacy and rookie Tre Mason, it appears as if they have finally settled on Mason. Mason has rushed the ball 62 times over his past three contests, all very tough games in which the Rams were not expected to walk away with a win. They did it this past week against Denver, though, and it’s hard to argue that the team’s ability to control the clock by running the football played a major part in their upset win. Mason ran the ball 29 times for 113 yards and while he caught just one pass, he has certainly asserted himself as the team’s primary ball carrier going forward. Stacy, meanwhile, did not touch the ball for a third straight week and has fallen off of the fantasy radar. Cunningham remains a player who is getting fewer than five carries per game, but his role as the team’s primary pass-catcher out of the backfield leaves him with a tiny bit of fantasy value in PPR formats, but certainly nothing to be excited about.

Look for the St. Louis offense to go through Mason again this week as he goes up against a San Diego Chargers run defense that currently ranks in the middle of the pack in fantasy points conceded to opposing running backs, but has struggled in games where the opposing team has committed to the run. Another 20-plus carry day for Mason should be on the docket unless the team gets blown out, which should translate to at least Flex status for the young St. Louis tailback.

Projections:
Shaun Hill: 200 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Tre Mason: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Benny Cunningham: 15 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Kenny Britt: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Jared Cook: 40 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: It has been a nasty past few games for the San Diego offense and specifically for quarterback Philip Rivers who was being hailed as a potential league MVP candidate earlier this season. Rivers and the Chargers have scored just one touchdown over their past two games combined against the Dolphins and Raiders. While injured ribs may be somewhat to blame for Rivers’ lack of success, the big question right now is if there is something deeper happening in this San Diego offense that is preventing them from putting points on the board. After one of the most miserable games of his career in Week 9 at Miami when he threw for just 138 yards, zero touchdowns, fumbled once and threw three interceptions, Rivers got a bye week before coming home to play in what should have been a blowout victory for the Chargers over the Raiders. Instead, he threw for just 193 yards and a touchdown as his team snuck out with a 13-6 victory.

This struggling offense will now have a surprisingly tough task in Week 12 as they host a St. Louis Rams defense that just got done holding the Denver Broncos to seven total points in Week 11. The Rams have been getting after the quarterback which is always a concern for a QB who is suffering from rib injury, but Rivers is among the toughest players in the game and should be able to will his way through the contest even if he does take a few hits. The Chargers’ receivers have also been inconsistent, as Malcom Floyd appears to be re-asserting himself as a prominent player in the offense, having caught the ball for at least 50 yards and/or a touchdown in all but one game this season. Meanwhile Eddie Royal seems to be slumping back to his usual irrelevance as he has not gone over 30 yards receiving or scored a touchdown since all the way back in Week 6. Second-year wideout Keenan Allen has stepped up his game as of late with 27 catches over his past four contests, but he has gone over 75 yards just once on the season and his lone touchdown back in Week 8 doesn’t do much for fantasy owners. Tight end Antonio Gates, who has gone through some serious peaks and valleys this season, appears to be stuck in a valley as he has struggled along with Rivers, catching just six passes for 60 yards over his past two games. It’d be hard to bench Rivers in most formats just given his overall high numbers on the year, but the other members of the San Diego offense have been so unpredictable that it would be tough to recommend them in standard scoring formats.

Running Game Thoughts: Most believed that Ryan Mathews would retake the starting running back role in San Diego upon his return and it appears as if that has happened. Mathews toted the ball 16 times for 70 yards in the Chargers’ Week 11 victory over the Raiders, but surprisingly only caught the ball once for five yards. His backfield mate, Branden Oliver, still took 13 carries of his own, but was significantly less effective as he rushed for just 36 yards on the day and caught just one pass of his own for three yards. With Mathews back, Oliver is droppable in most formats as he is unlikely to get the kind of work that would be needed to sustain him as a viable starter even in PPR formats. Oliver could, however, still see enough work to keep Mathews from being a solid, every-week fantasy play. If Oliver continues to see roughly 30 percent of the snaps for the Chargers, that could be enough to cause some frustrating days for Mathews owners. Still, Mathews is the player who will almost certainly get the lion’s share of the goal line carries, which should keep him as a solid RB2 most weeks with the potential upside of an RB1 in weeks when the Chargers get out to an early lead and can grind the rock late in games.

The Rams do make for a tough fantasy matchup here in Week 12, though, as they have been extremely unforgiving to opposing running backs as of late. If you put aside the disastrous day they had against Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs back in Week 8, the Rams have only given up an average of 47 rushing yards per game in their other previous five games combined. That includes back-to-back games of under 30 rushing yards allowed to the Cardinals and Broncos.

Projections:
Philip Rivers: 225 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Ryan Mathews: 60 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Branden Oliver: 20 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Malcom Floyd: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Keenan Allen: 60 rec yds
Antonio Gates: 50 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Chargers 24, Rams 17 ^ Top

Cardinals @ Seahawks - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: Doubt them all you want, but the lone owner of the NFL’s best record is the surprising Arizona Cardinals. That record largely has to do with the quarterback-friendly system which head coach Bruce Arians has developed. The Cardinals, who have utilized three different quarterbacks this season, have thrown for a total of 17 touchdowns with only five interceptions on the year, a ratio which will get almost any team into the playoffs. With Carson Palmer now on the IR with an ACL tear, the team will rely on the arm of veteran quarterback Drew Stanton. Stanton looked good in relief of Palmer in Week 10 before putting up an excellent performance in a full game against one of the NFL’s best defenses, the Detroit Lions, in Week 11. Stanton threw for 306 yards and two touchdowns on the day and while his two interceptions are certainly something that can be improved upon, it was enough for the Cardinals to earn a 14-6 victory at home. As far as the receivers go, Arizona has been extremely frustrating to watch this season. Many came into the 2014 season with the belief that young wideout Michael Floyd would continue to take over as the team’s top receiving threat as Larry Fitzgerald is getting older, but the incredible inconsistency in Floyd’s numbers have made him among the most irritating players to own in the game. From Weeks 8 through 10, Floyd caught just five total passes for 47 yards. He then caught just two passes in Week 11. The difference in those two passes, however, is that they both went for touchdowns. Rookie John Brown has established himself as one of the league’s brightest young deep threats and has now caught at least five passes in three of his past four games, putting him on the cusp of being a viable Flex option for fantasy. Larry Fitzgerald, meanwhile, has gone through his own rollercoaster of fantasy production, and is now battling a knee injury, which makes him questionable for Sunday’s game against the Seahawks.

Seattle started the season off very shaky against opposing passing games, but has since locked things down in recent weeks. Over their past four contests, the Seahawks have allowed just three total passing touchdowns while opposing quarterbacks have averaged just 189 yards through the air. Worst yet, the Seahawks’ are the league’s top-performing unit against opposing wide receivers as they have allowed just one touchdown to an opposing wide receiver since all the way back in Week 5. Stanton has looked good, but this is not the kind of matchup that is tailor-made for a big fantasy day. Fantasy owners would be wise to stray away from this potentially ugly matchup in Seattle.

Running Game Thoughts: The best player in the Arizona offense this season has unquestionably been running back Andre Ellington who is enjoying a breakout season that has him ranked among the top 10 at his position both in standard and PPR formats. Ellington has touched the ball at least 16 times in every game this season which makes him almost a completely no-brainer, every week starter in all formats. But despite the success that the Cardinals have had as of late in the win column, things have not been going as well for Ellington. Ellington has rushed for fewer than 1.8 yards per carry over his past two contests and while his nine receptions have been able to help out owners in PPR formats, he has only contributed 43 yards in the passing game over those two contests.

While the matchups against St. Louis and Detroit make it understandable that Ellington has struggled, things don’t get much easier here in Week 12 as the Cardinals head to Seattle to face the Seahawks and their impressive run defense. The Seahawks have allowed just two teams (Dallas, Kansas City) to rush for more than 90 yards against them in a single game this season, while holding four opposing teams under the 50-yard mark. Seattle has been forgiving to opposing backs in the receiving game, however, as their 61 completions conceded to the position ranks among the most in the league. This will be a tough matchup for Ellington and while he remains a must-start given his consistent workload, it would not be surprising to see him fail to reach the 50-yard rushing mark for the third straight week.

Projections:
Drew Stanton: 225 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Andre Ellington: 60 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Michael Floyd: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
John Brown: 50 rec yds
Larry Fitzgerald: 40 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Frustratingly low numbers in the passing game but fantastic numbers as a runner have made Russell Wilson a high-risk/high-reward type of fantasy player in 2014. The Seahawks quarterback has shockingly eclipsed 205 passing yards just twice in 10 games this season, but has rushed for 70-plus yards on four occasions, including back-to-back games against the Giants and Chiefs as we head into an important Week 12 divisional matchup versus the 9-1 Cardinals. The departure of Percy Harvin has certainly not been a good thing for this middling passing game, but veteran Doug Baldwin has done his past to make up for the loss as he has now caught at least four passes in each of his past five games. This past week, Baldwin scored his second touchdown of the season and he is now becoming a viable every week WR3 or Flex option in PPR formats. The only other receiver in this offense who is worth noting is Jermaine Kearse who has stepped up over his past two games, catching a total of eight passes for 124 yards.

This unit will have a tough day upcoming in Week 12 as they host the Cardinals and their seventh-ranked fantasy defense against opposing quarterbacks. The Arizona defense has been hot as of late, too, having conceded fewer than eight points to opposing QBs in four of their past five games; including an impressive day of keeping the Lions’ high-powered passing attack in check this past Sunday. Given Wilson’s lack of passing numbers on the year and this incredible string of defense, fantasy owners will likely only be looking at Wilson as a reasonable fantasy option this weekend. The other players, even Baldwin, are just too risky to trust in a matchup like this, especially so close to the fantasy playoffs.

Running Game Thoughts: Rumors of a potential trade involving Marshawn Lynch before the deadline a few weeks ago are a thing of the past, but the wounds may not be quite healed in this relationship. Lynch, who has been dealing with general soreness in his back as well as other areas, was part of a bizarre act during this past week’s loss to Kansas City, where he did not join the team for halftime preparation in the locker-room. Instead, Lynch stayed on the sidelines where the training staff tended to him. He also continues to refuse to participate in press conferences, which has caused him numerous fines and certainly cannot be helping the Seahawks in the PR department. Still, head coach Pete Carroll has remained adamant that Lynch is “our guy.” That has shown over the past few weeks as Lynch has been ripping off huge days for his fantasy owners. Over his past three contests, Lynch has rushed for 331 yards and six touchdowns while also adding 100 yards as a receiver. This kind of production would almost certainly make him a must-start for all owners, but Lynch is currently dealing with a back injury that has held him out of practice all week and has left him questionable for Sunday’s game against the Cardinals. Then again, he dealt with these same injury problems in Week 11 before finally practicing on Friday and eventually playing on Sunday.

Presuming he does play, Lynch will have one of his toughest matchups of the season as he goes up against the Cardinals and their second-ranked fantasy defense against opposing running backs. Arizona hasn’t allowed a single 100-yard rusher on the season and they’ve only conceded five total scores to the position on the year. Lynch struggled against this unit in 2013 as well as he was held in check in Week 16 when he ran for just 71 yards on 18 carries. While his yardage total might not be much better than that, Lynch is among the most likely players to score a touchdown on a week-to-week basis and should be in your lineup presuming he plays here in Week 12.

Projections:
Russell Wilson: 190 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 50 rush yds
Marshawn Lynch: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Doug Baldwin: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Jermaine Kearse: 50 rec yds

Prediction: Seahawks 20, Cardinals 17 ^ Top

Dolphins @ Broncos - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: Quietly emerging as a top-10 fantasy quarterback, Miami’s Ryan Tannehill appears to be long past the early season woes that had rumors circulating about him potentially being benched. Tannehill has thrown a touchdown in all 10 games while throwing for at least 200 yards in all but two contests this season. Not only that, but he has been able to limit his turnovers as he has thrown just seven interceptions on the year while fumbling only once. He’s still looking for his first 300-yard passing day this year, but the consistency that he has shown has been a nice step in the progression to becoming a true franchise quarterback. Tannehill’s success in throwing the ball has done good things for the team as a whole, but his receivers have not yet been putting up great numbers. Mike Wallace leads the team with 44 receptions for 557 yards and six touchdowns, but no other player on the team has more than three receiving touchdowns. Jarvis Landry has emerged a bit in recent weeks with 17 receptions for 145 yards and two scores over his past three games, but his stat lines aren’t much to be excited about in non-PPR formats. Tight end Charles Clay (hamstring, knee) is about the only other fantasy-relevant player in this passing game, but he, like many tight ends, has given fantasy owners more sad days than happy days so far in 2014.

Clay does, however, have a favorable matchup here in Week 12 as he goes up against a Denver Broncos defense that has struggled to stop opposing tight ends. Denver has conceded four touchdowns to the position over their past five games and while Clay is typically a fill-in type tight end, he could be considered a low-end TE1 here in Week 12 given this matchup, assuming he plays. Denver has struggled against opposing passing games as a whole this season as they have given up at least 190 yards passing in every game this season while conceding a total of 19 passing touchdowns with only 10 interceptions.

Running Game Thoughts: A shoulder injury knocked Lamar Miller out of the Dolphins’ Week 10 loss to the Lions, but the tailback was back on the field in Week 11 against the Bills and seemed to show no ill-effects from the injury. Miller’s 98 total yards against a rock solid Buffalo defense are part of the reason why fantasy owners have been so excited about him since he took over the role from Knowshon Moreno earlier this year.

Miller has been a very solid RB2 in most weeks and while a matchup against the Broncos’ 7th-ranked fantasy defense against opposing running backs may seem like a difficult task, it’s worth noting that the Broncos have struggled mightily to slow down running backs as of late. In Week 11, the Rams showed the blueprint to beat Denver: control the clock with your running game and don’t turn the ball over. Without another quality back on the roster, the Dolphins will likely lean on Lamar Miller fairly heavily in this contest as they look to keep Peyton Manning and the Denver offense off the field. Don’t be surprised to see Miller touch the ball between 20-25 times which could lead to him being a borderline RB1 in this contest.

Projections:
Ryan Tannehill: 240 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 25 rush yds
Lamar Miller: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Mike Wallace: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Jarvis Landry: 50 rec yds
Charles Clay: 50 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: So, what happened? Denver’s offense had been raging through NFL defenses at a record pace before they came across what appeared on paper to be an overmatched St. Louis defense. The Broncos managed to put up just seven points in the game, a blowout loss, as Peyton Manning threw a pair of interceptions for the third straight week. While Manning did his thing in the yardage department, throwing for 389 yards and a touchdown, it wasn’t nearly enough to overcome what was a tremendous string of injuries that bit them offensively. After catching his team’s only touchdown on the day, Emmanuel Sanders took one of the most brutal hits we’ve seen this season as he stretched out to catch an overthrown pass. This hit caused a concussion, which took him out for the remainder of the game. The unfortunate aspect of concussions is that they truly are day-to-day. Sanders has not yet practiced as of Thursday which puts his status for Sunday’s game in serious jeopardy, but if he plays, he absolutely must be in fantasy lineups. He has gone over 100 yards and/or caught at least one touchdown in eight of his 10 games this season and is a WR1 in every format. Sanders’ teammate Demaryius Thomas also continued his incredible pace as he has he went over the 100-yard mark for the seventh straight game. That record-setting pace should continue this week as he is one of the few players in this offense who isn’t banged up heading into Week 12 in what will likely be another pass-happy day for the Broncos. Another player to watch the status for this Sunday is tight end Julius Thomas, who suffered a sprained ankle in the loss to the Rams. Thomas has also been unable to practice so far this week and his ability to play will truly be a gametime decision. He is certainly a must-start if he does play, but be sure to have a backup option in the scenario that he is unable to suit up.

Pressure has been the name of the game in causing Manning to make bad throws over the past few weeks and, at least on paper, that could be a problem for the Broncos this week as they host a Miami defense that ranks fourth in the league with 30 sacks on the season. The Dolphins also have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. They have not allowed a quarterback to hit the 300-yard mark against them in any game. Still, Manning remains an unquestioned must-start in all formats as evidenced by his solid fantasy day even in Week 11 even in a game when his team scored just seven points.

Running Game Thoughts: The revolving door at running back continued for the Broncos in Week 11 as Montee Ball made his way back onto the field early in the contest. Ball, who had missed the previous five games with a groin injury after failing to live up to expectations in the early part of the season, saw just one snap before re-injuring his groin on a pass out of the backfield early in the contest. This led to C.J. Anderson getting back on the field for almost the entire rest of the game. Anderson got just nine carries which he took for a measly 29 yards in the loss to the Rams, but was a major player in the passing game for the third straight week. His eight catches for 86 yards show the type of versatility that Peyton Manning and the Denver offense can really make use of. With Ronnie Hillman also out due to a foot injury, Anderson will presumably return to his spot as the team’s primary ball-carrier, a role in which he excelled back in Week 10 when he ran the ball 13 times for 90 yards.

Week 12’s matchup against the Dolphins is not ideal for Anderson as this unit has allowed just one rushing touchdown since all the way back in Week 3, but the lack of depth in the Denver offense makes Anderson a very likely candidate to get between 12-to-18 touches on the day, which should make him an easy RB2 in most formats. Particularly in PPR formats, Anderson needs to be in your lineup this week.

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 290 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
C.J. Anderson: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 40 rec yds
Demaryius Thomas: 100 rec yds, 1 TD
Emmanuel Sanders: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Wes Welker: 30 rec yds
Julius Thomas: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Broncos 31, Dolphins 24 ^ Top

Redskins @ 49ers - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: On paper, the Redskins’ Week 11 matchup at home against the Buccaneers appeared to be one that Robert Griffin III would be able to exploit for some big numbers. The Bucs ranked among the worst defenses in the league in fantasy points per game given up to opposing quarterbacks, but ended up having one of their best days of the year against Griffin as they held him to just 207 yards and one touchdown through the air while intercepting two passes. Griffin looked flustered as the Bucs surprisingly didn’t blitz him anywhere near as often as was to be expected. The passive defense they played didn’t allow Griffin to wind up and throw the ball down the field much and the pressure generated by their front four was enough to force six sacks.

Griffin could be in for another very tough day this week as the Redskins head to San Francisco to play the 49ers. San Francisco, one of the best defenses in the league, has held opposing quarterbacks to single-digit fantasy point totals (standard scoring) in five contests this season. With Aldon Smith back, the 49ers now get a boost to an already good pass rush and that could spell trouble for Griffin and the Redskins. With DeSean Jackson’s game essentially predicated on the idea of Griffin having time to bomb the ball down the field, this will likely be a particularly rough game for this already mediocre passing game.

Running Game Thoughts: The only player who has had any shred of consistency in the Redskins offense as of late has been running back Alfred Morris. Morris, who remains one of the NFL’s least-contributing running backs in the passing game, has at least been running the ball with some fire as of late. This past Sunday, he ran the ball 18 times for 96 yards in a blowout loss to the Buccaneers. While that number doesn’t seem excellent, it’s worth considering that NFL teams don’t typically run the ball 18 times in games they lose by three-plus touchdowns. The fact that Morris has taken at least 12 carries in every game makes him a solid RB2 in most formats, but his upside has been limited by the general ineffectiveness of the Washington offense.

He won’t have an easy task in Week 12, either, as he goes up against a San Francisco 49ers defense that is once again contending for the best run defense in the league. San Francisco has allowed an average of less than 80 yards rushing per game against them and they’ve only conceded five total touchdowns to opposing running backs on the year. With Morris being so ineffective in the passing game, this is likely to be one of his lowest-scoring days of his season. Still, given his higher-than-most number of touches, Morris remains a low-end RB2 even in this very unappealing matchup.

Projections:
Robert Griffin III: 225 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 30 rush yds
Alfred Morris: 55 rush yds, 1 TD
DeSean Jackson: 50 rec yds
Pierre Garcon: 40 rec yds
Niles Paul: 40 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: His team is 6-4 and contending for a playoff spot once again, but fantasy owners haven’t been so excited about the progression they’ve seen in quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Over his past four contests, Kaepernick has been reliably putting up between 10-to-13 fantasy points, but has not eclipsed 275 yards or thrown for multiple touchdowns in any game. It’s also worth noting that while he is widely considered one of the most athletic and mobile quarterbacks in the game, he has not surpassed 30 rushing yards in any of those contests and has not yet rushed for a touchdown in 2014. Kaepernick’s not-so-great numbers have come against some bad pass defenses, as well, including the Giants, Saints and Broncos. While it’s true that he has avoided having any truly disastrous performances, Kaepernick has been between 10 to 19 fantasy points (standard scoring) in all but one game this season when he torched the Rams for 343 yards passing and three scores. Kaepernick’s middle-of-the-road passing numbers have made his receivers extremely tough to trust, as well. Only one 49ers pass-catcher - Stevie Johnson all the way back in Week 3 - has gone over 100 yards so far this season. The most disappointing player in the offense, however, has been tight end Vernon Davis. After a huge 2013 season, Davis has battled injury in 2014, but has simply been ineffective even when he’s been healthy and on the field. Since his two touchdown performance in Week 1, Davis has not scored a single touchdown or gone over 40 yards in any game this season. While there is reason to be optimistic about Davis’ chances of fantasy production here in Week 12 against a Redskins defense that has conceded seven touchdowns to the position on the year, Davis simply has not shown enough to warrant fantasy consideration in most formats at this point in the season.

Washington’s defense as a whole has been very forgiving to opposing passing games this season. They’re currently second-worst in the league in fantasy points per game given up to opposing quarterbacks and they’ve managed to give up multiple passing touchdowns in all but three games (Houston, Jacksonville, Minnesota). Kaepernick has been tough to believe in as a high-end fantasy point producer, but this is about as good of a matchup as one can hope for. Boldin and Crabtree are must-starts this week and Kaepernick likely sits as a borderline QB1.

Running Game Thoughts: Part of the reason for Colin Kaepernick’s lack of success in the passing game has to be the mediocre production that Frank Gore has been giving his team this season. With Gore averaging a paltry 65 yards per game on the ground, opposing defenses have been able to drop back more players into coverage and bring a wider variety of blitzes at Kaepernick. Fortunately, Gore has been heating up a bit over his past two games, both San Francisco road wins, as he rushed for 81 yards against the Saints and 95 yards against the Giants. Still, he remains a forgotten member of the passing game and will need to improve on his 4.1 yards per carry average if the 49ers are going to make a run down the stretch.

He will look to do just that here in Week 12 as the 49ers host the Redskins. Washington has been atrocious against the pass this season, but their run defense has actually been quietly solid. They did give up big days to Rashad Jennings and DeMarco Murray as well as a three-touchdown day to Matt Asiata in Week 9, but they’ve held been very good against the run in most games. This past week, despite losing by 20 points, the Redskins defense held the Buccaneers running backs to just 40 yards on 18 carries. The 3.7 yards per carry that they’ve allowed to opposing backs on the year is among the very best in the league. Still, Gore has been looking good lately and if he gets another 20-or-so carries, he should produce effective enough fantasy numbers to warrant low-end RB2 status.

Projections:
Colin Kaepernick: 220 pass yds, 2 TD, 25 rush yds
Frank Gore: 75 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Anquan Boldin: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael Crabtree: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Vernon Davis: 30 rec yds

Prediction: 49ers 20, Redskins 14 ^ Top

Browns at Falcons - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: The biggest question in fantasy football this week is simple: what can fantasy owners expect out of Josh Gordon? He’s supremely talented, but the fact remains he hasn’t played football in a long time, and it seems unlikely he’d be in the type of shape that would allow him to play every snap. But even if Gordon plays half the game, he’s still bound to put up respectable numbers. His presence shouldn’t hurt the value of fellow WR Andrew Hawkins much because he’ll have less attention with Gordon on the field. Hawkins is still just a WR3 due to his lack of scoring prowess, and though Gordon may not put up WR1 numbers this week (then again, would that shock anyone?), he’ll get there soon enough, and the match-up this week with Atlanta is a great one.

No team in the NFL is surrendering more passing yards per game or yards per pass attempt than the Falcons. But they’re also tied for 3rd-fewest passing scores allowed because teams simply run the ball into the end zone against them. Things have changed a bit recently though, with Atlanta giving up multiple scoring passes in five of their last six games. They’re 15th in FPTs/G allowed to quarterbacks and though tight ends have had little success against the Falcons, the team is yielding the 7th-most FPTs/G in the league to wide receivers.

Running Game Thoughts: With the release of Ben Tate, Cleveland’s three-man rushing attack is no more. The run game now belongs to Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell. West has 34 more carries than Crowell this season, but Crowell’s been the more productive back. He has two more touchdowns than West, and is averaging a full yard per carry more. Crowell should be a fantasy starter this week against a pliable Falcons run defense.

Atlanta is ranked 24th in the league in run defense and are tied for last in rushing scores surrendered. While they haven’t given up many huge performances, the Falcons have allowed eight different running backs to gain at least 55 rushing yards, and only the Colts have given up more receiving yards to players at that position. Put all those factors together and you have a team that has allowed the 2nd-most FPTs/G in the NFL to running backs.

Projections:
Brian Hoyer: 200 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Isaiah Crowell: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Terrance West: 35 rush yds
Andrew Hawkins: 70 rec yds
Josh Gordon: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Taylor Gabriel: 35 rec yds
Jim Dray: 15 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Ryan’s underwhelming performance continued last week in his team’s win over the Panthers, as he threw for 268 yards and one score. The QB has thrown for at least 300 yards only once since Week 1, and has fewer than 275 yards in each of his last five contests while throwing multiple touchdowns only once in his last six games. As for Ryan’s receivers, Julio Jones has a sizable lead over Roddy White in terms of yards, but Jones has not caught a touchdown since Week 3, while White has a score in three of his last four contests. Both wide receivers are decent options this week, but expectations should be lowered a bit against a Browns team that has limited opposing passing games.

The Cleveland pass defense has been playing at a high level throughout the season, and the numbers reflect that. The Browns are 11th in the league in pass defense, tied for 3rd in both touchdown throws given up and interceptions, are 4th in yards per pass attempt allowed, and have allowed the 2nd-lowest completion percentage in the league. The team is in the middle of the pack in terms of FPTs/G surrendered to wide receivers, but that’s what happens when you play Antonio Brown twice, as the Steelers receiver is responsible for half of the 100-yard games Cleveland has allowed to wide receivers. The Browns have been tougher on other positions, with only nine teams giving up fewer FPTs/G to tight ends, and just five teams allowing fewer FPTs/G to quarterbacks.

Running Game Thoughts: Steven Jackson ran for only 41 yards without a score last week, breaking a two-game string of productivity. On the bright side, he did have 17 carries, which was his second-highest total of the season. With Jackson carrying the ball more, he can be considered a RB2 this week against Cleveland, a squad that has been unsuccessful stopping the run this season.

Just two teams in the NFL have allowed more rushing yards per game than the Browns, and only three teams have given up a higher YPC average. Yet Cleveland is tied for 16th in rushing scores surrendered and has contained backs in the passing game, which means they’re a middle-of-the-road team in terms of FPTs/G allowed to running backs, giving up the 14th-most in the league.

Projections:
Matt Ryan: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Steven Jackson: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Julio Jones: 75 rec yds
Roddy White: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Harry Douglas: 30 rec yds
Levine Toilolo: 25 rec yds

Prediction: Falcons 20, Browns 17 ^ Top

Bengals at Texans - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton’s horrific performance against the Browns two weeks ago did not carry over into last week’s game against the Saints, as he tossed three touchdowns in a 220-yard performance. Still, he’s barely a QB2 and has no real place starting for fantasy owners. The same cannot be said for A.J. Green, of course. He had six catches for 127 yards and a touchdown last week against New Orleans and with health is primed to be a major factor for fantasy owners going forward. Green’s success is going to hamper Mohamed Sanu somewhat, as he isn’t going to produce at the same level as he did when Green was out. Match-ups should dictate Sanu’s usage from here on out, and the Texans offer a prime opportunity for him to contribute.

Houston has had difficulties containing the pass this year and as such rank 31st in the league in pass defense and tied for 24th in passing scores permitted. The Texans have allowed the 10th-most FPTs/G in the league to opposing quarterbacks, and though they’ve fared well against tight ends, their struggles against wide receivers stand out. Only the Eagles are allowing more FPTs/G to players at that position, and maybe even more telling, it’s not just the T.Y. Hilton’s and Jeremy Maclin’s of the world that have had success against Houston. Oakland’s James Jones had 112 yards and a score against them, Mike Williams compiled 84 yards and a touchdown, and Taylor Gabriel picked up 97 yards against them last week.

Running Game Thoughts: Jeremy Hill ran for 152 yards last week, and has gone over 150 rushing yards in two of his last three games. Giovani Bernard may return this week, but even so, it seems likely that Hill will get the larger share of carries, at least for now. Hill should continue to be in fantasy lineups against a Houston team that has an average run defense.

The Texans are very much in the middle of the pack against the run, ranking 16th in the NFL in run defense and 15th in YPC allowed. They’re tied for 5th-fewest rushing touchdowns permitted, but have given up the 9th-most receiving yards to running backs. Those numbers lead us right back to the middle for Houston – as in 16th in the 32-team NFL in FPTs/G allowed to running backs.

Projections:
Andy Dalton: 240 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Jeremy Hill: 90 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Giovani Bernard: 40 rush yds, 20 rec yds
A.J. Green: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Mohamed Sanu: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Jermaine Gresham: 25 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Ryan Mallett was decent in his first start last week, completing two-thirds of his passes for 211 yards with a pair of touchdowns and one interception. He may be a fantasy force at some point in his career, but that time is not now. He does have a couple of good receivers to throw to, and it has become increasingly clear that DeAndre Hopkins has overtaken Andre Johnson as the team’s best receiving option. Johnson has only one score this year and no games with 100 yards, while Hopkins has two 100-yard games over his last four contests and has at least 80 yards in each of those games. The wide receivers have a formidable match-up against Cincinnati, but Hopkins is rolling and should keep his spot in fantasy lineups.

The Bengals are 20th in the NFL in pass defense, but no team has surrendered fewer passing scores, they’re 11th in completion percentage allowed, tied for 10th in interceptions, and 5th in yards per pass attempt allowed. Cincinnati has struggled to stop tight ends this season, but they did hold Jimmy Graham to 29 yards on three receptions last week. They’ve also given up just three touchdown throws in their last four games and have allowed the 11th-fewest FPTs/G to quarterbacks. Where the Bengals have really shined is against wide receivers, as only the Seahawks have surrendered fewer FPTs/G to players at that position this year.

Running Game Thoughts: With Arian Foster sidelined last week, Alfred Blue carried a whopping 36 times and gained 156 yards. However, Foster returned to practice on a limited basis this week, and his return will put a screeching halt to Blue’s fantasy value. As of this writing, it was unknown if Foster would suit up, but whoever the lead back is this week has an excellent match-up against the Bengals.

Cincinnati is 28th in the league against the run, tied for 28th in rushing scores given up, 25th in YPC allowed, and have permitted the 10th-most receiving yards in the league by running backs. The Bengals have allowed four different running backs to gain 90 or more yards on the ground this season, including two in the last three weeks, and are giving up the 5th-most FPTs/G in the NFL to running backs.

Projections:
Ryan Mallett: 190 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Arian Foster: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Alfred Blue: 35 rush yds
DeAndre Hopkins: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Andre Johnson: 55 rec yds
Garrett Graham: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Bengals 27, Texans 21 ^ Top

Jaguars at Colts - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Jaguars were on a bye last week after returning from playing the Cowboys in London. Fantasy owners probably didn’t notice, because this team has a dearth of fantasy options. One had been Allen Robinson, the team’s leading receiver, but he’s been lost for the season. That means more looks for Cecil Shorts, Allen Hurns, and maybe Marquise Lee. That trio, along with QB Blake Bortles, has promise, but their short-term fantasy prospects are marginal. The best hopes from a fantasy perspective this week may come from TE Clay Harbor based on the Colts’ struggles against other tight ends.

Indianapolis has below-average numbers against the pass this season, ranking 27th in pass defense, tied for 19th in passing touchdowns permitted, 22nd in yards per pass attempt allowed, and 19th in interceptions. The Colts have given up the 12th-most FPTs/G in the league to opposing quarterbacks, and though they’ve been decent (for the most part) against wide receivers, the same can’t be said about their performance against tight ends. Indy has allowed the 4th-most FPTs/G in the NFL to tight ends and has allowed four touchdowns to players at that position over their last three games.

Running Game Thoughts: Though Jacksonville is light on pass-catchers with near-term potential, the same isn’t true when it comes to RB Denard Robinson. He’s been a find for fantasy owners, having put up double-digit fantasy points in each of his last four games. In those contests, Robinson has run for 90 or more yards three times and has scored on four occasions. The former Michigan QB has become a must-start and should continue his productivity against Indianapolis.

The Colts are 17th in the league against the run, but only a pair of teams have allowed a higher YPC average, and just three teams have surrendered more rushing scores this season. Indy has also given up more receiving yards to backs than any other team in the NFL, and have allowed some overall monster games this season, with no need to look any further than Jonas Gray’s 200-yard, 4-TD effort last week. That was the biggest game, obviously, the team has allowed by an opposing runner this season but they’ve also given up 140+ total yards and two scores to Arian Foster and nearly 150 total yards to Le’Veon Bell, which is why they’ve allowed the 5th-most FPTs/G in the league to running backs.

Projections:
Blake Bortles: 205 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 25 rush yds
Denard Robinson: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Cecil Shorts: 65 rec yds
Allen Hurns: 45 rec yds
Marqise Lee: 35 rec yds
Clay Harbor: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck threw for 303 yards with two touchdowns and one interception a week ago in his team’s loss to the Patriots. And that represents a bad week for him, at least in terms of fantasy points. Luck spreads the ball around to his plethora of receiving options, though that corps has taken a hit lately. TE Dwayne Allen has an ankle injury that may keep out this week, and RB Ahmad Bradshaw, who trailed only Allen in terms of touchdown receptions, is out for the season. On the positive side of things, that should mean more scoring opportunities for T.Y. Hilton and Reggie Wayne, and also a chance for TE Coby Fleener to build off of his success from last week’s 144-yard performance. And against Jacksonville, each should be in fantasy lineups.

The Jaguars are 26th in the league against the pass, tied for 19th in touchdown throws given up, 21st in opponents completion percentage allowed, and 27th in both interceptions and yards per pass attempt surrendered. More to the point, Jacksonville is happy to give away fantasy points regardless of position. Quarterbacks? 12th-most FPTs/G allowed. Tight ends? 11th-most. Wide receivers? 9th-most. All of which makes Luck an even stronger play than usual, which is saying something.

Running Game Thoughts: Ahmad Bradshaw was the team’s best running back this season, but now that his year is over, it’s time for Trent Richardson to step up. Dan Herron will be his back-up, but it seems likely that Richardson will get the lion’s share of the carries. He’s been underwhelming for most of his career, but now has a golden opportunity to prove himself. Simply based on the number of carries he should get and match-up with the Jaguars, Richardson qualifies as a RB2 this week.

Jacksonville has the league’s 26th-ranked rush defense, while also placing 18th in rushing scores surrendered and 20th in YPC allowed. The Jaguars did go their first eight games without allowing an opposing running back to gain more than 85 yards, but things have taken a turn in their last two contests, as they gave up 154 yards to Jeremy Hill and 100 yards to DeMarco Murray and the Jags are now allowing the 10th-most FPTs/G to running backs.

Projections:
Andrew Luck: 315 pass yds, 4 TD, 25 rush yds
Trent Richardson: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Dan Herron: 30 rush yds
T.Y. Hilton: 90 rec yds, 2 TD
Reggie Wayne: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Hakeem Nicks: 35 rec yds
Coby Fleener: 75 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Colts 35, Jaguars 20 ^ Top

Ravens at Saints - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco is a good quarterback, but also the type that can drive fantasy owners crazy due to his inconsistent statistical performances. He sandwiches 300-yard performances with ones less than 200 yards and can go from zero scoring throws to five in a week. Flacco’s top target for most of the year has been Steve Smith, but the veteran wide receiver has gone three straight games without reaching 40 receiving yards. Meanwhile, Torrey Smith has five touchdowns in five games, and though the big-time yardage total isn’t there, fantasy owners need to employ him in their lineups while the getting is good, especially against the Saints.

New Orleans is 24th in the NFL in pass defense and tied for 15th in passing scores yielded. They’re also 29th in yards per pass attempt allowed, and have had particular trouble snaring interceptions. The Saints are tied for 24th in the league in picks, but four of their six interceptions this season have come in just two games. They haven’t allowed a lot of yards in recent weeks, but did give up three scoring passes to Andy Dalton in their last game and for the season have allowed the 7th-most FPTs/G in the league to quarterbacks. New Orleans is also surrendering the 8th-most FPTs/G to wide receivers, but it’s a different story when it comes to tight ends. Even with Jermaine Gresham snaring a pair of touchdowns last week, no team in the NFL has allowed fewer FPTs/G to tight ends than the Saints.

Running Game Thoughts: In his last contest, Justin Forsett broke a four-game string without a rushing score by getting into the end zone twice, helping propel him into the top-10 fantasy scorers at RB. He’s 7th in the NFL in rushing and averaging 5.4 YPC. Forsett has played well all season and has an excellent match-up this week against New Orleans.

The Saints are tied for 19th in the league in rush defense, and also rank 19th in YPC allowed, but they’re 26th in rushing scores permitted. New Orleans, who has given up the 6th-most receiving yards in the league to backs, has generally held running backs to respectable totals, but has shown some cracks of late. After not giving up at least 70 rushing yards to a RB just once over their first eight games, the Saints allowed 81 yards to Frank Gore two weeks ago and 152 yards to Jeremy Hill last week. That’s hurt the team’s overall numbers, and for the year they’ve now allowed the 13th-most FPTs/G in the NFL to running backs.

Projections:
Joe Flacco: 210 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Justin Forsett: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Bernard Pierce: 35 rush yds
Lorenzo Taliaferro: 15 rush yds
Torrey Smith: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Steve Smith: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Owen Daniels: 35 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees had a season-low 255 yards last week against the Bengals, with just a single touchdown pass. It hasn’t been the type of season fantasy owners are used to from Brees, at least in terms of scoring passes, and it won’t get any easier with the loss of Brandin Cooks. The rookie has a broken thumb that will sideline him the rest of the season, and though New Orleans still has plenty of weapons, Cooks had become the team’s most productive WR. Looking at it from another perspective, this may be a chance for Marques Colston to get things going, and he’ll have a very good opportunity to do so against a Baltimore team that has been burned by wide receivers this year.

The Ravens own the league’s 21st-ranked pass defense, and even though they’re also tied for 23rd in interceptions, just two teams have given up fewer touchdown passes. Of course, nearly half of the 14 touchdown throws Baltimore has allowed came two weeks ago to Ben Roethlisberger, but that was only the second time all season they surrendered multiple scoring throws in a game. The Ravens are right in the middle of the league, 16th, in FPTs/G allowed to quarterbacks, and have given up the 7th-fewest FPTs/G to tight ends. However, they’ve had season-long struggles trying to stop wide receivers, with only Houston allowing more yards to players at the position and just three other teams giving up more FPTs/G to wide receivers.

Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram remains basically Saints’ only runner with the injuries to the team’s other backs. He had just 67 yards on 23 carries last week, breaking a streak of three consecutive games with 100 yards. It doesn’t seem likely that Ingram will start a new streak this week, not against a Ravens team that has shuttered opposing running attacks.

Through the years, Baltimore has been very difficult to run against, and the same holds true in 2014, as the team ranks 5th in the league in run defense. They’re also 4th in YPC allowed and tied for 13th in rushing scores surrendered. The Ravens haven’t allowed even one RB to gain at least 70 yards against them this season, they’ve allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving yards in the league to backs, and of the six rushing scores Baltimore has allowed, only three of them have come via the running back. That type of dominance is why the team is allowing fewer FPTs/G to running backs than any other squad in the league.

Projections:
Drew Brees: 260 pass yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
Mark Ingram: 55 rush yds
Travaris Cadet: 10 rush yds, 30 rec yds
Marques Colston: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Kenny Stills: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Jimmy Graham: 65 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Ravens 24, Saints 21 ^ Top

Titans at Eagles - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: Though the team has yet to win a game in which rookie QB Zach Mettenberger has appeared, the Titans have at least been more competitive and have put a better product on the field in each of his three starts. With fewer starts and pass attempts than the other quarterbacks on the roster, Mettenberger is just seven yards shy of leading the team in passing yards, already has the highest completion percentage of the three, and is tied for the team lead having thrown five touchdowns. In the three games he’s started the rookie has averaged 247 passing yards and has tossed one interception in each contest, giving him slightly better numbers than all three Titans signal callers have amassed over the course of the season. Aside from a revolving door at quarterback, Tennessee struggles in the passing game due to a lack of elite pass catching talent. The top receiver on the team is TE Delanie Walker (concussion) and he even missed the most recent contest; he’s officially listed as day-to-day but is expected to play this week. Behind him WRs Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter have both averaged more than 40 yards per game this season, both of whom are outperforming veteran WR Nate Washington, who thanks to an 80-yard catch and run finally found the endzone in Week 11, giving him his first score of year. Tennessee ranks in the bottom quarter of the league for passing attacks, and while Mettenberger is being tested out as the potential future of the franchise, in the meantime the only Titan with reasonable fantasy value is Walker, assuming he clears concussion protocols and is available for selection this weekend.

For most of this season Philadelphia has been one of the worst five pass defenses in the NFL, and their most recent showing did little to positively affect their status. In Week 11 the Eagles gave up 100 more yards than their season average, forced no interceptions, recorded just one sack, and allowed three touchdowns; the only silver lining is that the game was out of reach early and so the offense seemed to take their foot off the pedal. In addition to surrendering over 260 passing yards per game, Philadelphia has conceded the third most touchdowns in the league. Although they have recorded the second most sacks in the NFL, in three games this season they have been held without a sack, and over half of their total has come from two blowout games. Considering their big play ability the Eagles are still one of the best fantasy defenses to own, and if the down weeks can be survived then the big weeks will be a nice reward. For Tennessee this likely means that Mettenberger and the passing attack will either enjoy moderate success or crushing failure, with the potential upside of garbage time points in the latter stages of the game.

Running Game Thoughts: On the ground there are 11 teams in the NFL that average fewer than 100 rushing yards per game, but of that group the Titans have the highest mark for yards per carry, suggesting that their ability to run the ball is primarily limited by the number of attempts. This position is supported by Tennessee having the third fewest carries in the league and an above average 4.2 yards per attempt. With five of their ten contests resulting in losses of 14 or more points it’s not hard to imagine the Titans abandoning the run early in order to try to catch up on the scoreboard. For those times when they do choose to run, the backfield is led by rookie RB Bishop Sankey, though he has only scored twice this season and has broken 60 yards the same number of times, though these never happened in the same game. As an inconsistent contributor out of the backfield Sankey has average just over one reception per contest, and has never totaled more than 74 yards from scrimmage. Much like the Titans rookie quarterback, they are currently working out a potential running back of the future, but in the meantime there is minimal fantasy value in this phase of the Tennessee offense.

If the game stays close, which may be more hypothetical than anything else, Sankey will be greeted by the easiest run defense he’s faced since Weeks 5 and 6, the only two times he topped 60 rushing yards. That pair of contests worked out particularly well for the team as well, with one of their two wins occurring during that time and the other game being their closest loss of the season. While playing a struggling opponent and having home field advantage certainly both favored Tennessee in those matchups, their clash with the Eagles in Week 12 may not be quite as friendly. Losing LB DeMeco Ryans has been a huge blow to the Philadelphia defense, but in the two games since he went on Injured Reserve the team has been able to hold their opponents below the Eagles 115 yards allowed average. At least in that respect, their ability to stop the run has not diminished any further, and this despite facing more than the league average number of rushing attempts through ten games this season. In no way is the Philadelphia run defense a stout unit, but since the Titans rarely attempt enough rushes to take advantage of the limited success they do find, chances are that the defense will be able to hold them enough in check to continue to hold Sankey to fantasy-irrelevant levels.

Projections:
Zach Mettenberger: 265 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
Bishop Sankey: 50 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Shonn Greene: 20 rush yds
Kendall Wright: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Justin Hunter: 45 rec yds
Delanie Walker: 70 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: In 11 quarters of play QB Mark Sanchez has thrown six touchdowns (two per game) and topped 330 yards twice, leading Philadelphia to two victories. The veteran backup has approximately matched, if not slightly surpassed, the season averages of the starter (Foles), and interestingly the Eagles have been able to play noticeably faster with Sanchez on the field than they did under Foles. Not only has the offense as a whole suffered very little, if at all, most of the pieces in the offense are performing at very similar levels to what they did before the quarterback change. WRs Jeremy Maclin and Jordan Matthews have each gained at least 285 receiving yards in the past three weeks while also catching at least three touchdowns each. Other pass catchers have been inconsistent all season and with Sanchez under center that too has not changed. Going forward there have been low rumblings of keeping Sanchez as the starter even when Foles is healthy, but until the former starter is cleared to play this may be a moot point. Look for Maclin to continue to be the big play threat for the Eagles, and for Matthews to earn more and more touches as he continues to shake off rookie mistakes and carve out a role as the undisputed No.2 receiver in the offense.

Only three times this year have the Titans given up more than 17 points, so while any number of areas can be identified as potential weaknesses, their ability to defend the pass is certainly low on their list of concerns. Through ten games they have recorded the sixth most sacks in the league, are tied for 11th fewest touchdowns allowed, and rank in the top ten for yards surrendered per game. In the other major statistical categories Tennessee is right around the midpoint for the league, if not slightly better. Most recently they held the third leading passer in the league to just over 200 yards and sacked him five times, while giving up just one touchdown and also forcing an interception. This Sunday the Eagles will present a different style of offense and that may allow Sanchez and the receiving corps to find success through the air, but most teams this season have been held in check by the Tennessee pass defense.

Running Game Thoughts: In three games with Sanchez as the primary signal caller Philadelphia has had three very different results from their rushing attack, including two victories from games with 190 and 37 yards on the ground, and a loss when they gained 109. The rushing results don’t closely correlate with the rankings of the run defenses, and touchdowns on the ground don’t necessarily relate to yardage gains. While a pattern may emerge in the next few weeks, little can be determined about the effect Sanchez has had on the Eagles ability to run the ball, or the overall impact that their ground game as on the outcome of the contest. Until Philadelphia is able to shake off their inconsistencies they’ll continue to rank in the middle of the league for most statistical categories, including yards per game (14th), yards per attempt (19th), touchdowns scored (tied 14th), and even total rushing attempts (12th). The unquestioned star of the backfield is RB LeSean McCoy who, after absorbing injury frustrations at the beginning of the year, is back in the top twenty for his fantasy position, despite scoring only twice all season and not recording more than 20 receiving yards since Week 2. With the addition of RB Darren Sproles, who has earned a higher proportion of receiving opportunities, McCoy has primarily been used as a runner though he does occasionally slip out of the backfield on a passing route.

There have been only three games all year where McCoy didn’t score at least eight fantasy points, between some combination of rushing yards, receiving yards, and touchdowns. This Sunday against the second worst rush defense in the league, the star Eagles running back may hit that threshold by halftime. Against the run Tennessee is allowing over 143 yards per game, and in their past three contests, opponents have been averaging nearly 190 yards. If Philadelphia is able to play their style of football and push the tempo of the game, as they’ve been known to do, it’s quite possible that they could be the third team in four matchups to gain at least 200 rushing yards on the Titans. For the season, Tennessee has yielded 11 touchdowns in ten games and is conceding 4.4 yards per carry, so there are expected to be plenty of opportunities for McCoy on the ground, and even Sproles as a ball carrier when he subs in to give the starter a chance to rest. Even with as inconsistent as the Eagles have been in the running game, the defense is too susceptible to the run to believe Philadelphia won’t take advantage.

Projections:
Mark Sanchez: 235 pass yds, 2 TDs
LeSean McCoy: 115 rush yds, 10 rec yds, 1 TD
Darren Sproles: 40 rush yds, 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Jeremy Maclin: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Jordan Matthews: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Zach Ertz: 40 rec yds

Prediction: Eagles 34, Titans 17 ^ Top

Lions at Patriots - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: A fascinating statistic uncovered by the gurus at Elias shows that QB Matthew Stafford has never won a road game against a team that ultimately finished the season with a winning record, and if he loses again on Sunday that will guarantee the Patriots finish with a winning record this season as well. In all contests this year Stafford has led the Lions to 253 passing yards per game, only the twelfth most in the league, along with the seventh fewest touchdowns and just under one interception per game. Star WR Calvin Johnson has only been healthy for five full games this season, though he has appeared in two more in a limited capacity, and his absence has been partially responsible for the mediocre offensive production. In three road games Johnson has yet to find the endzone or gain 85 receiving yards, and in two of those matchups he failed to bring in even half of the passes thrown his way. Picking up the slack has been WR Golden Tate, with 34 more receptions than Johnson despite just 31 more targets, and a nearly equal mark for yards per catch. The duo is tied for the team lead in touchdown receptions along with RB Theo Riddick, who has been able to take advantage of injuries and make the most of his time on the field; they all have just three touchdown catches each. One of the biggest issues facing the Detroit passing attack has been protection, as the quarterback has taken fewer sacks than just five other teams. In the two weeks since their bye, Stafford has suffered seven sacks and two interceptions, to go along with just two touchdowns and 232 yards through the air.

Over the past three games New England has faced two of the league’s top quarterbacks as well as a third who is an inconsistent veteran that has incredible upside most weeks; in each contest the defense has held them to 23 or fewer points while the offense has more than doubled their score in each game. During that time, against three of the top eight scoring fantasy quarterbacks this year, the Patriots allowed 2.3 touchdowns and 330 passing yards per game, while recording 1.6 sacks and 1.3 interceptions per contest as well. All three of those quarterbacks had one of their worst games of the season against New England, with the two best signal callers having just one game that was less productive than their matchup with the Patriots. On the season the defense has been approximately average for the league, but considering they’ve faced some of the best teams in the NFL that mark is significantly more impressive. Statistically the Patriots defense is worthy of a fantasy start most weeks, but the biggest takeaway is that opposing quarterbacks are significantly less worthy of being in the starting lineup when facing the New England pass defense.

Running Game Thoughts: Through ten games the Lions are one of only three teams to not break 800 rushing yards this season, giving them an average of less than 80 yards per game. The same offensive line which has struggled with pass protection is also having a difficult time run blocking, and a backfield rotation hampered by injuries certainly hasn’t done anything to help that situation. The most active ball carrier has been RB Joique Bell, averaging 49 rush yards per game, but even he has missed time this season due to a concussion and ankle issues. His counterpart was supposed to be RB Reggie Bush (ankle), but injuries have held him out of multiple games and he’s still officially listed as Questionable, though as a limited participant in practice this week he may be able to suit up on Sunday. Through Week 11 Bell has more than twice as many carries as Bush, and Bush has three times as many carries as any other running back on the roster. Even bolstered by participation in the passing game, with Bell and Bush each seeing about 24 yards per game out of the backfield, neither is productive enough on the ground nor finds the endzone regularly enough to be counted on in most fantasy formats. Only if one is injured would it be advisable to start the other.

Similar to how they are against the pass, the Patriots run defense is approximately average, with the exception of being tied with the fifth fewest rushing touchdowns allowed. As a matter of practice New England is largely able to force their opponents into passing situations because of the points their own offense can put up, but the times they weren’t able to do so have resulted in their only losses of the season. On only four occasions has a team gained more than 100 rushing yards on the Patriots, including three games of more than 200 yards; that trio represents the only two New England losses this season as well as their most narrow victory. The way to beat the Patriots is to control the ground game, but even at that the team may ultimately be unsuccessful. Detroit has yet to demonstrate the consistency needed to have any reasonable expectation of running the ball against the Patriots, and given that the passing attack has been less than stellar, this ought to play directly to the strengths of the defense.

Projections:
Matthew Stafford: 225 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Joique Bell: 50 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Reggie Bush: 20 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Calvin Johnson: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Golden Tate: 70 rec yds
Eric Ebron: 25 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: As of game day in Week 12 it will be exactly 14 years to the day that QB Tom Brady made his NFL debut, and in a wonderful bit of serendipity, the team he first appeared against is the same team he’ll face this Sunday. Back in 2000, Brady was put in late in a blowout loss to Detroit, throwing three passes and completing just one of them for six yards. The 2014 edition of this matchup is expected to be incredibly different, and chances are it’ll work out much better for both New England and their signal caller this time around. In home games this season Brady has averaged 295 passing yards and three touchdowns per game, while recording just one interception in five contests. The biggest beneficiary of the passing offense has been TE Rob Gronkowski, who after a slow start to the season due to recovering from injury, is now at the top of his fantasy position and is third among all pass catchers in touchdown receptions. Six of his nine scores this season have come at home, including finding the endzone in four of the five games and hitting triple digit yardage in three of those five. Aside from the All Pro tight end, WRs Julian Edelman (thigh) and Brandon LaFell are also averaging better than 55 yards per game, though the former is listed as Questionable after a Week 11 contest that saw him play a season low number of snaps. Edelman is expected to play but his status is certainly worth watching, as LaFell would be in line for an expanded role if he’s out; WR Danny Amendola would be the expected replacement in the slot.

Through the air Detroit has as good of a chance as anyone may in slowing down Brady at home. Of the two New England losses this season, including one at home, the defenses ranked first and second in yards allowed be contest; the Lions are just behind that with the fifth lowest average. The Lions have also allowed the second fewest passing touchdowns and are tied for the sixth most interceptions forced, bringing them ahead of the two teams who previously handed New England their only defeats this season. Detroit however is coming off of a road game in which they gave up over 300 passing yards and two scores to a backup quarterback, while also forcing zero sacks and getting fortunate to come up with two interceptions. If there is reason for optimism though, it is that the Week 11 touchdowns were both surrendered in the first nine minutes of the game, and after that their opponent was held scoreless. Also, despite two plays of 40 or more yards, no receiver topped 70 on the afternoon. Traveling to New England for a second road game in a row will be a different situation altogether, with the weather, receiving talent, and quarterback experience all heavily favoring the home team, and those factors being more impressive than what the Lions faced last week. If Detroit is again unable to pressure the quarterback then it will be a long day in Foxboro, as Brady will have all the time he needs to pick apart the secondary as his plethora of receivers run through it.

Running Game Thoughts: In consecutive games New England has found two very different ways to beat two different division leaders, with a Week 9 passing clinic only a bye week removed from a Week 11 demonstration of power running at its finest. Rookie RB Jonas Gray earned more touches last game than he has in the remainder of his NFL career, and he turned those 37 attempts into 201 rushing yards and four scores, also significantly more than he’s gained previously. History has demonstrated Coach Bill Belichick as perhaps the ultimate strategist, customizing the offensive game plan to most optimally exploit the weaknesses of the defense. From a predictability standpoint, especially with relation to fantasy football, this can be incredibly frustrating as talented players can often be overlooked because the game plan dictates otherwise. Prevailing wisdom had RB Shane Vereen as an integral piece of the offense, moderately involved as a runner and heavily involved in the passing game, but since the time RB Stevan Ridley was put on Injured Reserve, Vereen has only once gained 30 yards on the ground or 80 yards from scrimmage during any single game. On the other hand, Gray has been used only sparingly up until last week, and in four games has yet to be involved out of the backfield. The most valuable Patriots running back still seems to be Vereen, but the balance of power may have already started to shift.

Regardless of how running back duties are distributed, the Patriots will be running the ball against the top defense in the league. Detroit yields just 69 yards per game and a miniscule three yards per carry, while allowing more rushing touchdowns than just one other team, and just one fumbled rushing attempt shy of being tied for the lead with respect to that category as well. Teams having success in the ground game has not correlated with them emerging victorious, as above average rushing totals and finding the endzone occurred in just one of their three defeats, but also three times in Detroit wins. The Lions will have a lot to think about after watching Gray and the New England offensive line dominate the primetime matchup last week, but ultimately Belichick may choose to attack their stout defense a different way. Perhaps Vereen will be used as a weapon out of the backfield, or maybe Edelman will be utilized on inside reverses or jet sweeps, both of which have been done already this year, and yet still Brady is the quarterback and he may be charged with navigating the defense through the air. Whatever the game plan, chances are it will look different from last week, meaning that Gray might be best kept on the bench for Week 12 fantasy football purposes.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 265 pass yds, 2 TDs
Jonas Gray: 50 rush yds
Shane Vereen: 15 rush yds, 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Brandon LaFell: 75 rec yds
Julian Edelman: 40 rec yds
Rob Gronkowski: 85 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Patriots 23, Lions 10 ^ Top

Jets at Bills - (Thorne)

With cartoonish levels of snow falling in the area during the week leading up to Week 12, the open air Ralph Wilson Stadium was declared unplayable, so this game will be played in Detroit on Monday night.

Passing Game Thoughts: The last meeting of these teams was a first for the Jets, where QB Michael Vick officially became the starter after the struggling QB Geno Smith was at long last mercifully benched in favor of the veteran. Though if only by varying shades of terrible, Vick has led New York to more success since becoming the starter, with margins of defeat tightening slightly and the team earning their second win of the season, this time by the full value of a touchdown. In the span of three and a half games Vick has just one interception, and in his two most recent start he has successfully avoided the tragic mistake that plagued Smith so often. The remainder of their passing statistics are approximately equal or perhaps even favor the younger signal caller, but the experience of Vick has brought a calming presence to the Jets on the field and they’ve looked better recently than they did at the beginning of the season. Regardless of any such improvement, New York still has the worst passing attack in the league, though there is strong contention from a team that is starting a rookie quarterback. The only players worth considering for fantasy rosters are WRs Eric Decker and Percy Harvin, where the former is the team’s only true redzone threat and the latter contributes as a ball carrier frequently enough to make up for the yardage he doesn’t achieve through the air.

As a team that has given up the eighth most sacks in the league, New York must be concerned about how they’ll fare against the Bills and the league’s most prolific team at forcing sacks. Buffalo also ranks in the top six for interceptions as well, making them perhaps the best overall unit at applying pressure on the quarterback and disrupting the line of scrimmage. Almost for good measure, they’re also the seventh stingiest team on both a per-game and per-attempt basis. Regardless of how a team chooses to attack Buffalo through the air, the defense has proven it is more than capable of dealing with whatever comes their way. In Week 8 the Bills limited Vick to 153 yards passing while recording an interception and four sacks. They also victimized Smith before he was benched, with the younger quarterback completing more passes to the defense than to his own team. Since that time Vick has not thrown an interception, so the pressure will be on as he tries to lead the Jets to back-to-back victories for the first time since the conclusion of the 2013 season.

Running Game Thoughts: Assuming that the aerial attack won’t be particularly fruitful, New York may be additionally interested in establishing their ground game. Already with a top five rushing average at 141 yards per game, the Jets should look to build on that success as the foundation for whatever else they hope to do on offense. The star of the backfield used to be RB Chris Ivory but since Vick took over as quarterback that has started to change. Ivory is averaging 39 yards per game, all on the ground, and RB Chris Johnson has averaged 33 yards rushing plus another 19 through the air. In two of the three games Ivory has received more touches and Johnson has been more productive, but the biggest boosts to the rushing attack have come since WR Percy Harvin was acquired by the Jets. The all-purpose player has recorded at least one carry in each of his three games in New York and averages 23 yards per game on just under four rushes. The final contributions to rushing totals have come from the quarterback position, with Smith and now Vick adding right around 18 additional yards per game on top of what is gained by the running backs and other ball carriers. With the ability to run between the tackles, to get to the edge, and to utilize non-traditional runners the Jets gain an impressive number of rushing yards, but with so many different contributors it is less likely that any one of them will have a big game.

Though not at the pinnacle of team rankings the Bills are still a top ten defense against the run in all major categories. Only three teams have yielded fewer touchdowns, and they allow less than four yards per carry while giving up fewer than 100 yards per game on the ground. In each of their last three games however, including the Week 8 matchup with New York, the Bills have surrendered 125 yards or more on the ground. That mark, combined with committing no interceptions, seems to be the most successful formula for beating Buffalo, and one that the Jets might be able to accomplish. Assuming Vick can continue to protect the football, that leaves the four-headed monster of Ivory, Johnson, Harvin, and Vick to pick up roughly 30 yards each on the ground. Back in their first meeting four different ball carriers gained 28 or more yards, so the goal is ultimately attainable for New York. The Bills will no longer be surprised by Vick or Harvin, both of whom were seeing their first expanded roles of the season. With those two built into the defense game plan Buffalo should be better prepared for the Jets run game, but it may be only a matter of time until “ground and pound” wears down the defensive front.

Projections:
Michael Vick: 175 pass yds, 15 rush yds, 1 TD
Chris Ivory: 30 rush yds
Chris Johnson: 25 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Eric Decker: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Percy Harvin: 20 rec yds, 15 rush yds
Jace Amaro: 25 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Despite not being able to practice this week, QB Kyle Orton (toe) is officially listed as Limited but he fully expected to play. Assuming it is a pain tolerance issue and nothing that should directly affect his performance, having Mother Nature cancel practice by dropping multiple feet of snow may oddly work to his benefit. The passing attack, Orton included, could have used the extra practice time afforded to them by the Thursday game in Week 11, as they gained only 193 yards through the air and failed to find the endzone. It was the first time all season that Buffalo failed to score a passing touchdown with Orton under center, though it marked the third straight game where he avoided throwing an interception. Through the air the Bills continue to be led by rookie WR Sammy Watkins, but a recent downturn has been him gain fewer than 35 yards with no touchdowns in consecutive games, after back to back contests where he surpassed 120 yards and scored at least once. Behind him there are four players who have each average 30 or more yards per game, including two wide receivers, RB Fred Jackson, and TE Scott Chandler. Each of those four have found the endzone at least once, but none have scored more than twice. Since the Bills lack a true number two receiver Orton has been forced to spread the ball around, meaning that none of the pass catchers other than Watkins can be counted on as a regular fantasy contributor.

The conservative approach taken by Orton and the Bills passing game served them well against the Jets in Week 8, where the offense recorded four passing touchdowns and committed no turnovers, even though Orton only threw for 238 yards. This sort of performance has become almost routine for offenses facing New York, whose secondary has given up more scores than any team in the NFL and is also tied for the fewest interceptions forced. Although they surrender only 241 passing yards per game, slightly better than the league average, the Jets are in the bottom ten for yards allowed attempt. The lone area where New York is consistently above average is in pressuring the quarterback, specifically in recording sacks, where they’re ranked in the top quarter. Even though they’ve only recorded more than two sacks once in the past five contests, they’ve successfully sacked opposing quarterbacks in each of their games this season. This sort of consistency is incredible considering their shortcomings in nearly every other area of the pass defense, but it may be the only thing holding that unit together.

Running Game Thoughts: What was an area of strength of last season now seems to be a glaring weakness in 2014, though injuries to the stars of the running game certainly contribute to the Bills deficiencies on the ground this year. Working with their third and fourth string ball carriers for most of the last four weeks, Buffalo has struggled to get anything going on the ground, averaging just 87 rushing yards per game. Though their season mark of 96 is hardly any better, at least the presence of RB Fred Jackson (groin) gives the rushing attack the all-purpose back that Buffalo has come to utilize so well. After sitting out Week 11 Jackson is believed to finally be back at full health, and is expected to be paired with RB Bryce Brown for the remainder of the season. Though neither he nor RB Anthony Dixon were overly impressive as a backfield duo, Brown has a more explosive style which should complement Jackson much in the way that RB CJ Spiller (shoulder) did before his season was ended. No active Bills running back averages more than 32 rushing yards per game, and although their inconsistent usage has diluted these numbers to a certain extent, currently none are reliable fantasy options based solely on the performances as a rusher.

On the season only three teams have given up fewer rushing yards than the Jets have, and all three of those teams are at least tied for the lead of their division. New York on the other hand has one of the worst records in the league, though a lackluster offense is largely to blame for their losing ways. The defense has allowed more than 31 points just once while the offense has never scored more than 25 and has been held to under 21 points in seven of their ten games. On the ground the Jets are one of the most formidable units in the NFL, with only one team allowing fewer touchdowns and just two teams yielding fewer yards per rushing attempt. By most reasonable measures the defense has performed admirably, and arguably over-performed, based on how frequently they are on the field and how many additional opportunities offenses are given to try to beat them. Unfortunately the strength of the New York front seven forces opponents to attack the team’s greatest weakness, but if an offense becomes too one-dimensional even the ailing Jets secondary can be coaxed into making a few stops.

Projections:
Kyle Orton: 230 pass yds, 1 TD
Fred Jackson: 25 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Bryce Brown: 15 rush yds, 30 rec yds
Sammy Watkins: 65 rec yds
Robert Woods: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Scott Chandler: 30 rec yds

Prediction: Bills 13, Jets 10 ^ Top

Cowboys at Giants - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: Like all the teams who played across the pond, the Cowboys got to enjoy their bye the following week, and after snapping their two game losing streak the other benefit to the transatlantic journey was that QB Tony Romo (back) had extra time to heal in preparation for their next game. Dallas is still the only team in the NFL to be undefeated on the road, a designation they will put on the line in Week 12 as they’re once against traveling east, though instead of connecting in New York they’ll be playing there. This season the Cowboys have favored the run over the pass, but even so they’re in the top quarter of the league for touchdowns thrown despite being right around average for yards per game. The balance of the offense has allowed the aerial attack to be incredibly efficient, and their mark of 8.1 yards per attempt is the third best in the league. Despite the accolades being given to the offensive line, especially with regards to the ground game, Dallas is 20th or worse in sacks allowed and interceptions thrown; when normalized with the fifth fewest passing attempts in the NFL, the pressure getting to Romo looks even worse. Through the air, WR Dez Bryant continues to lead the team in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdown catches, while TE Jason Witten has surpassed WR Terrance Williams in yardage for the first time this season. In the last four games Williams has gained 20 or more yards just once and has found the endzone just one time as well, suggesting that the hot start to his season has cooled off and he’s now a touchdown dependent third option in the Dallas passing attack.

If only because of a technicality, New York can still salvage a winning season and find a way into the playoffs. Everything would have to fall the right way, they’d obviously have to win the remainder of their games, and most importantly the Giants would have to play significantly better and find a way to overcome the injuries that are already crippling the team. Against the pass the defense has played moderately well considering they’re without several starters in the back seven, but even so New York has given up fewer touchdowns than the league average and is top five in forcing interceptions. The team continues to give up too many yards, falling outside of the top 20 with 253 per game, largely because they can’t generate much pressure on the quarterback. The Giants have recorded more sacks than just five other teams and are surrendering 8.1 yards to opponents per passing attempt, the third worst mark in the league. Against a Dallas team that has recently struggled with pass protection, the best hope for the Giants is that they can get to Romo and disrupt the timing of the passing routes, because without that MetLife Stadium may experience a Cowboys style air raid on Sunday night.

Running Game Thoughts: Though Dallas has only the second best rushing attack, RB DeMarco Murray has far and away been the best individual ball carrier of the season. He leads the league in yards and attempts, both by absurd margins, and prior to a moderate decline in his usage was on pace for historic records of both. Thoughtfully, after seven games of averaging almost 30 touches per contest, Dallas has reduced his carries dramatically and increased his usage out of the backfield; though he touches the ball nearly 25 times per game the physical impact he must endure is far more moderate. With the exception of a game led by a backup quarterback, Murray has never recorded fewer than 131 yards from scrimmage this season, so his sporadic scoring and unfortunate fumbles can be taken in stride. Thankfully he’s only put the ball on the turf once in the past five contests, and if he can continue to improve in that respect then the single greatest flow of the Cowboys offense can be addressed.

After scoring seven touchdowns in the first seven games, Murray hasn’t scored in the last three contests, not finding the endzone since Week 7 when Dallas last played the Giants. His recent drought is just one of the reasons Murray should be looking forward to the game this Sunday night, as New York is last or tied for last in all major run defense categories. In their last meeting with Dallas, the Giants surrendered 156 rushing yards and a touchdown, with Murray earning the score and 128 of those yards for himself. In the three games since then New York has given up five rushing touchdowns and allowed an average of 199 yards per contest, and while the majority of the damage was done in only one of those games, the other two were certainly not glowing examples of defensive fortitude. Running behind the Cowboys offensive line Murray has been nearly unstoppable as long as Romo has been the quarterback, and with a unit like New York tasked with trying to slow him down on Sunday, there seems to be little reason to think that his success shouldn’t be allowed to continue.

Projections:
Tony Romo: 280 pass yds, 2 TDs
DeMarco Murray: 110 rush yds, 20 rec yds, 1 TD
Joseph Randle: 35 rush yds
Lance Dunbar: 15 rush yds, 30 rec yds
Dez Bryant: 100 rec yds, 2 TDs
Jason Witten: 55 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: In the interest of finding a silver lining to this dark cloud of a season, at least the remainder of Giants divisional games will be played in New York, so in the event they get to play spoiler they’re be able to do so in front of the home crowd. They’ve already played, and lost, three road games in the NFC East, so half of their remaining six games give New York an opportunity to return the favor. To build on the atmosphere of unnecessary optimism, despite playing against two tough NFC West opponents in back-to-back weeks, rookie WR Odell Beckham Jr. has gained the second most receiving yards in the league in the three weeks since the Giants bye week. As the lone bright spot on the offense, Beckham averaged 119 yards per game over that three-week span, and he’s now about to face an opponent who allowed him to score twice in their first meeting. Due to sheer volume, WR Rueben Randle is a growing fantasy asset; on the season he has as many receptions as Beckham does targets, and Randle is coming off a 112-yard performance in the loss last week. While QB Eli Manning threw five picks in Week 11, the problem largely rests with the offensive line, though nearly doubling the Giants interception total certainly didn’t help things. Assuming Manning won’t regularly be that bad, the big play receivers on the roster make him an interesting possibility on the fantasy waiver wire most weeks, but until the O-line performs better there are less risky options with similar upsides.

Despite injuries at all levels of the defense the Cowboys continue to perform. In the passing game they’re the equivalent of a prevent defense, generally playing it safe and being willing to concede moderate yardage, but striving to take advantage of mistakes and ultimately prevent touchdowns. Dallas is tied for third fewest touchdowns allowed and pairs that with a top ten ranking for interceptions forced. They’re not particularly successful at getting to the quarterback, recording the fifth fewest sacks in the league and yielding a completion that is in the bottom quarter, but by playing conservatively they’re able to keep the game close and give the ball back to their offense. The biggest difference for the team this season has been their ability for the Cowboys to win the battle for time of possession. Due to the injuries they’ve suffered, Dallas has limited depth across their defense, so the longer the Cowboys offense can hold the ball then the more time the defense has to rest and recover. The struggling New York offensive line may find a reprieve on Sunday evening and that should allow Manning enough time to find his talented receives downfield.

Running Game Thoughts: It can’t be a coincidence that in the first game since his return, RB Rashad Jennings (knee) was able to put the offense in a position to win the game late in the fourth quarter; the closest New York came to winning without him on the field was a 10 point defeat. In infamous Giants fashion they snatched defeat out of the jaws of victory, but the biggest take away from that game may be the number of touches given to Jennings and the fact that he isn’t on the injury report for this week. Though it took a little extra time to get him back on the field, it appears that New York did the right thing in making sure their only reliable ball carrier was fully healthy and ready to shoulder all of his previous backfield responsibilities. As far as fantasy football is concerned, the injury to Jennings may ultimately be beneficial if it increases his workload in the final weeks of the season. Prior to his injury and during the three week New York winning streak, Jennings was receiving decreased touches in favor of rookie RB Andre Williams. While Jennings was unavailable Williams was the main ball carrier, and as the utter futility of the ground game became apparent, New York could hardly wait for the return of their starter. In the only game post-injury, Jennings received 22 touches, compared to four touches combined between all other running backs. If this division of labor continues, even on a bad team Jennings will have fantasy value because of the reliability he brings to a struggling offense.

Although Jennings didn’t play against Dallas in Week 7 there is still plenty that can be learned from that game. In his absence running backs were given the ball 24 times on rushing attempts and were targeted another six times out of the backfield. The rookie running back caught no passes and earned 18 carries, ultimately gaining 51 yards on the evening and being a liability in pass coverage. Even with no real rushing attack New York was never out of the game, and passing plays began to be tipped off because Williams couldn’t be trusted in protection. Had Jennings been available, averaging 4.2 yards per carry instead of the 2.9 from Williams, his rushing total would have been more than 70 yards. On top of that he’s the best back for pass protection and averages nearly 20 receiving yards per game on just three catches. Five weeks ago Dallas didn’t need to stop the Giants ground game, New York was thoughtful enough to do it themselves. While game plans and schemes are likely to change for the rematch this Sunday, Jennings being available is a huge plus for the Giants, as it should be also for his fantasy owners.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 250 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rashad Jennings: 70 rush yds, 25 rec yds, 1 TD
Andre Williams: 15 rush yds
Odell Beckham Jr.: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Rueben Randle: 65 rec yds
Larry Donnell: 40 rec yds

Prediction: Cowboys 27, Giants 14 ^ Top

Buccaneers at Bears - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Josh McCown will make his return to Chicago in Week 12. Last season a seven- game stretch as the starting quarterback of the Bears earned him a nice payday from Tampa Bay during this past offseason. McCown struggled mightily earlier in the season but has played well after returning from a thumb injury and replacing Mike Glennon. McCown has thrown for 589 yards with 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions since being inserted back into the starting lineup. McCown has benefitted from the emergence of rookie wide receiver Mike Evans, who last week became only the second player in NFL history to record a three- game stretch of at least 100 receiving yards and a touchdown in three straight games as a rookie. The other player to do so was Randy Moss. Evans has scored seven touchdowns in his last six games and has 794 receiving yards on the season. Johnny Football’s former favorite target is massive, at 6’5” and 231 pounds, yet still possesses more than enough speed to get deep on opposing defenses. The Buccaneers drafted Evans and tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins (6’5”, 262 pounds) to team up with incumbent veteran Vincent Jackson (6’5”, 230 pounds) in large part to recreate the massive targets that helped McCown become a success with the Bears last season. While it took a while to come to fruition, the offense is finally starting to become productive and McCown is producing just as well as last season.

McCown gets a plush assignment this week facing his old team, which is allowing 256.4 yards per game and has yielded an incredible 24 touchdowns through the air. The Bears secondary has consistently blown assignments, allowing big plays, and could be susceptible to the size and speed of the Tampa receivers this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Rookie Charles Sims was given the opportunity to carry the load in just his second game after returning from IR. Sims wasn’t effective, gaining only 36 yards on his 13 carries and adding 8 yards on 3 receptions. Sims was talked up as a feature back by the staff following the draft, but many prognosticators saw him earning his keep in the NFL strictly as a change- of- pace and third- down back. Doug Martin has been inactive the last two weeks with an ankle injury but should be back this week. However, the team seems intent to see what it has in Sims before potentially moving on from the “Muscle Hamster.” The Buccaneers’ offensive line has struggled most of the year, making it difficult for any of their backs to gain any serious traction thus far. Bobby Rainey has been the team’s most effective runner so far, but the journeyman clearly isn’t any team’s long- term answer at the running back position, and in a lost season the Buccaneers are better off auditioning the rookie and/or perhaps giving Martin one last shot to impress the staff.

The Bears have played the run reasonably well, allowing 110.9 yards per game and 5 rushing touchdowns on the season, but they did give up huge receiving numbers to running back Eddie Lacy two weeks ago. Sims could get a few chances in the passing game to make some noise this week as that is his strong point.

Projections:
Josh McCown: 285 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 35 rush yds
Doug Martin: 25 rush yds, 1 TD, 5 rec yds
Charles Sims: 40 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Vincent Jackson: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Mike Evans: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Louis Murphy: 40 rec yds
Austin Seferian-Jenkins: 40 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: The much maligned Jay Cutler shook off the recent barrage of criticism directed toward him to lead the Bears to a victory over a division rival in Week 11. Cutler threw for 330 yards and 3 touchdowns in the game against a good Minnesota Vikings pass defense. Cutler of course was still careless with the football, throwing two interceptions on terribly thrown balls, but the good far outweighed the bad for at least one week. This week he’ll square off against his former backup, who many fans and media members felt should have been the man to lead the Bears in 2014, allowing the team to release Cutler and his bloated contract. Brandon Marshall, who has been very outspoken about the team’s poor play this season, was on the receiving end of two of Cutler’s scoring strikes. Marshall entered the game with a sore ankle but showed that he was healthy, catching 7 of 10 passes for 90 yards. Tight end Martellus Bennett has struggled through a rib injury the last two weeks and has not been effective, but with Alshon Jeffrey looking as sharp as ever and promising second- year player Maquess Wilson returning from IR, the passing game can afford his lack of production until he gets back to health.

It could be a shootout this week between Cutler and McCown, as neither team can stop the pass and both offenses are clicking right now. The Bucs allow 266.1 passing yards per game and have yielded 20 touchdown passes on the season. Both quarterbacks should be motivated to show well in front of the Chicago faithful.

Running Game Thoughts: The Bears generally don’t run the ball nearly as much as they should but unleashed Matt Forte last week. Forte gained 117 yards on his 26 carries and was also a big part of the passing game, adding 6 receptions for 58 yards. The Bears have arguably the best overall collection of skill position players in the league and an excellent offensive line. The team would be well served to balance out its offense a little, as Forte is one of the league’s better running backs, and not having to carry the offense on his back could do wonders for Cutler’s psyche. It would also take pressure off of what has been a horrendous defense. While it may seem obvious to the casual observer, Head Coach Marc Trestman is considered to be a quarterback guru and will likely continue to fall in love with the forward pass.

The Buccaneers can be run on, allowing 118.2 rushing yards per game and 8 rushing touchdowns on the season. Perhaps the colder weather will lend itself to a second helping of a Forte- centric offense this week.

Projections:
Jay Cutler: 315 pass yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Matt Forte: 85 rush yds, 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Ka’Deem Carey: 15 rush yds
Marquess Wilson: 15 rec yds
Brandon Marshall: 110 rec yds, 1 TD
Alshon Jeffery: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Martellus Bennett: 20 rec yds

Prediction: Bears 30, Buccaneers 24 ^ Top

Packers at Vikings - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Aaron Rodgers is in the middle of another great quarterback season to add to his resume. He’s completing 66.8percent of his passes, which isn’t anything special, but when you look at his 8.8 yards per attempt, it’s obvious that he’s taking many shots deep downfield. He’s averaging 274.5 yards per game, with an incredible 28 to 3 TD to INT ratio. The early- season offensive struggles of the Packers are clearly in the rearview mirror. He’s made it look particularly easy in recent weeks as his team has demolished both the Bears and Eagles, allowing him to leave both games with more than a full quarter left in the game. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are also putting up video game numbers as Rodgers is consistently finding them deep down the field and allowing their speed and athleticism to take over. The pair has combined to be on the receiving end of 19 of Rodgers’ 28 touchdown passes. Two weeks ago the Packers attacked the Bears with two- tight- end sets for most of the game, utilizing both Andrew Quarless and Brandon Bostick , but Bostick, who has had trouble staying healthy, missed last week’s game and has not practiced this week. In an embarrassment of riches, rookie tight end Richard Rodgers and rookie receiver Davante Adams have both contributed to the passing game at times as well, with Adams at one point looking like he would grab a major role before slowing down the past two weeks. While things can change quickly in the NFL, even from week to week, right now it does not look like any defense is capable of slowing down this passing game.

That theory could be put to the test as Rodgers and company go against the league’s 8th- ranked pass defense. The Vikings allow 225.2 passing yards per game but have yielded 17 touchdown passes. My prediction is that by the time you read this piece next week both of those numbers will look significantly bigger.

Running Game Thoughts: Eddie Lacy has surprisingly done most of his damage on screen passes in recent weeks. For a large lumbering back his 11.9 yards per reception seems odd, but with the deep downfield passing game so effective, he’s finding plenty of space ahead of him once he gets the ball in his hands. On the ground he’s totaling a disappointing 547 yards for the season but is managing a respectable 4.2 yards per carry after an extremely slow start to the season where he faced the upper echelon of run defenses. Recently the Packers just haven’t needed to establish the run with their passing game gaining yardage almost effortlessly, but that could change as the weather changes later in the season. Veteran James Starks is a capable backup, but with the Packers barely even using Lacy much, Starks isn’t a fantasy factor at all and only a handcuff.

The Vikings play the run effectively, allowing 115.3 rushing yards per game and 8 rushing touchdowns. If the weather is inclement in the now outdoor home field for Minnesota, perhaps the Packers will look to run the ball more, but it’s hard to predict the Packers moving away from the league’s most effective passing game at this time.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 325 pass yds, 4 TDs, 15 rush yds
Eddie Lacy: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 35 rec yds
James Starks: 15 rush yds, 5 rec yds
Jordy Nelson: 105 rec yds, 2 TDs
Randall Cobb: 65 rec yds
Davante Adams: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Andrew Quarless: 25 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Teddy Bridgewater had a dream matchup last week against the Bears but still came up short. He finished the game with only 158 yards passing with one touchdown and one interception, while settling for dump-off passes instead of attacking downfield. Minnesota does not have a dominating defense or a strong enough running game to be successful as a team with nothing more than the glorified game manager that Bridgewater has shown to be thus far. Last week it was the athletic Charles Johnson that was the only playmaker for the offense, much to the dismay of Cordarrelle Patterson owners (who frankly are unlikely to still have him in their lineups anyway). Johnson was signed by the team after he was released by the Browns and took advantage of the Vikings’ banged up receiving group, catching 6 passes for 87 yards. Greg Jennings and Jarius Wright left last week’s game and have missed practice time this week, opening the door for Johnson’s role in this offense to keep expanding. Kyle Rudolph returned last week but only played in less than 30 percent of the offensive snaps. He was not targeted in the passing game but should start to get worked into the offense and be a nice safety net for a quarterback that has shown a tendency to prefer the short passing game.

The Green Bay pass defense has been good all season and will present a challenge to Bridgewater after back- to- back games where it forced Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez into multiple mistakes. Of course, I’m not sure anyone needs to force either of those quarterbacks to make mistakes, as they seem to have made a career out of it. Green Bay is allowing 238.2 passing yards per game with 15 passing touchdowns allowed and 14 interceptions on the season. In a game where the Vikings should need to keep pace with the surging Packers offense, the team will need Bridgewater to step up his game. Offensive Coordinator Norv Turner needs to start opening the playbook and demanding that his quarterback looks to get the ball downfield, and in this game he may just have no choice but to do so.

Running Game Thoughts: Pending a successful appeal (yeah right) Adrian Peterson isn’t going to suit up for Vikings this season. In Peterson’s absence, the running game has been split between the raw but dynamic rookie Jerrick McKinnon and the lumbering veteran Matt Asiata. The combination of McKinnon and Asiata, while a pale comparison to Peterson, has been an effective enough pairing. However, Asiata is in the league’s concussion protocol and could be held out of this Sunday’s game. The team claimed former Cleveland Brown Ben Tate off of waivers, which could further indicate that the team does not believe Asiata will be available. That could increase the workload of McKinnon, who is solidly built at 5’9” and 208 pounds but still has excellent speed and quickness. The Vikings offense will never be able to keep up with the Packers, so the team’s only hope may be controlling the ball with its running game and keeping Aaron Rodgers off the field. Tate could be forced into immediate action, but his snaps should be limited due to his lack of knowledge of the playbook.

The Vikings should be able to move the ball on the ground against the league’s 29th- ranked run defense. It remains to be seen whether the Vikings’ defense can keep the game close enough to allow a steady rushing attack, however.

Projections:
Teddy Bridgewater: 205 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 35 rush yds
Ben Tate: 25 rush yds, 1 TD, 5 rec yds
Jerick McKinnon: 85 rush yds, 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Charles Johnson: 65 rec yds
Cordarrelle Patterson: 55 rec yds, 35 rush yds
Kyle Rudolph: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Packers 41, Vikings 24 ^ Top