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Favorites & Fades

Week 12

By: Mike Krueger | Ken Ilchuk | Nick Caron | HC Green
Updated: 11/27/22



Sunday Early:



Sunday Late:

LV @ SEA | LAC @ ARI | LAR @ KC | NO @ SF




- Green highlight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
- Lines and totals updated Sunday morning

Bills @ Lions - (Green)
Line: BUF -9.5
Total: 54.5

DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4

No Brainers: QB Josh Allen, WR Stefon Diggs

Favorite: WR Gabriel Davis/TE Dawson Knox

Despite recent improvement, the Lions still rank last in the NFL in points allowed and 28th in pass defense (262.2 yards per game). That’s not the area you want to be weak when facing Allen and company. The Bills surprisingly leaned into their running game last Sunday, with Allen attempting just 27 passes in a 31-23 win over Cleveland, and it’s certainly an option Thanksgiving Day as well. That’s not the way Buffalo wants to attack, however. They’re a passing team, and it would serve them well to get Allen rolling again as the MVP candidate has had some struggles in four games since the bye. While Diggs is a must-start each week, this feels like a good day to deploy Davis (5-68-0 in Week 11) and Knox (7-70-0) as a low-end WR2 and solid TE1, respectively.

On the Fence: RB Devin Singletary

Singletary ran for a season-high 86 yards and a touchdown against the Browns this past weekend, and four days later he draws the league’s 31st-ranked run defense -- the Lions have allowed 153.7 yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry. Everything so far is pointing toward another big game for Singletary. Color me unconvinced. As noted above, Buffalo wants to air it out, and it always feels like there’s a tendency to drift back toward that focus regardless of matchup, which is similar to what we’ve seen from the likes of Green Bay and Tampa Bay. James Cook also ran very effectively in Week 11, and on a short week they may look to lighten Singletary’s load after he played 31 more snaps than Cook against the Browns. Add it all up, and Singletary feels like a low-end RB2.

Fade: N/A

BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23

No Brainers: RB Jamaal Williams, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

Favorite: RB D’Andre Swift

Early in the season, Swift was the no-brainer with Williams the weekly matchup play. Not anymore. Swift has played more snaps than Williams just once since Week 2, and he played fewer than Justin Jackson last week. The team is smartly limiting his usage to maximize his effectiveness, but for fantasy owners that means hoping for positive results on limited chances. He gained just 32 yards on eight touches in Week 11, but he did score a touchdown for a second consecutive week. The Lions are going to need some big plays to keep pace with Buffalo, and Swift remains perhaps their most dangerous weapon. As an RB3 or flex he could do some damage.

On the Fence: N/A

Fade: QB Jared Goff

Remember Goff’s hot start? Yeah, me neither. Over his past six games, the former No. 1 overall pick has averaged 219 yards per game via the air with a combined four TDs and four INTs. Things might improve when Josh Reynolds (back) or D.J. Chark (ankle) return, or Jameson Williams (knee) debuts, but none of them played in Week 11, making it suspect that any of them would return this Thursday. Even if one of them did, it’s not enough to advocate for Goff to be anywhere but your bench against one of just two NFL teams with more INTs than TDs allowed for the season.

Prediction: Bills 38, Lions 27 ^ Top

Giants @ Cowboys - (Caron)
Line: DAL -10.5
Total: 45.5

DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27

No Brainers: RB Saquon Barkley

Favorite: QB Daniel Jones

It might not always be pretty, but after a near-25-point performance in Week 11, Daniel Jones is now approaching QB1 territory on the season and he’ll likely get there once a few others ahead of him have their bye weeks. Jones’ nine touchdown passes on the year are fewer than every other top-20 quarterback, but he’s putting up borderline elite numbers as a runner. At 44 yards on the ground per game, Jones is currently on pace for nearly 750 rushing yards this season. He’s already scored four times as a runner, as well. He played against this Cowboys defense back in Week 3 and was held in check through the air, but he was able to salvage a usable fantasy day by running for 79 yards on the ground. It’s tough to truly trust anyone playing against this staunch Dallas defense, but Jones is becoming a borderline must-start for fantasy purposes.

On the Fence: WR Darius Slayton

The Giants were dealt a difficult blow earlier this week when it was learned that rookie wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson suffered a torn ACL in this past weekend’s contest. Robinson had enjoyed a true breakout performance in that game and now the team is without both him and Sterling Shepard, leaving their pass-catching group extremely thin. One player who should benefit from the situation, though, is wide receiver Darius Slayton. Slayton himself has been stepping up as of late, having quietly reached double-digit fantasy points in five of his past six contests. On Sunday, though, he had perhaps his most important performance. While he only caught five passes for 86 yards, Slayton was targeted 10 times on the day - his most so far this season. It came on a day when Daniel Jones threw the ball 44 times, which is by far his most of the season. Jones’ previous high actually came against Dallas back in Week 3, so don’t be surprised to see Jones throw the ball much more often than usual this weekend, and without many other established pass-catchers on the roster, that should play right into Slayton’s upside.

Fade: RB Matt Breida

Backup running back Matt Breida “stole” Saquon Barkley’s rushing touchdown in Week 11, but don’t expect that to be the case going forward. Yes, Barkley is coming off of an ugly performance against the Lions, but Breida is not suddenly going to become the Giants’ goal-line back. Even in deep formats, don’t chase last week’s points. Roster Breida as an insurance policy for Barkley, sure, but keep him out of your lineup for now.

NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16

No Brainers: QB Dak Prescott, WR CeeDee Lamb

Favorite: RB Tony Pollard

Fantasy managers rostering Tony Pollard got a chance to see their running back go absolutely nuclear with Ezekiel Elliott sidelined in recent weeks, but we breathed a collective sigh of relief this past week as well. Elliott returned to the lineup, but the Cowboys ended up giving each player exactly 15 carries in the dominant win over the Vikings. Not only was Pollard more effective with his carries, but he also added an impressive six catches for 109 yards and two scores in the passing game. Look, we know that Zeke is not going anywhere, but it’s at least comforting to know that the Cowboys coaching staff has recognized that they need to continue to get Pollard involved. As such, he remains a strong RB2 with RB1 upside this week against a Giants defense that he already torched for over 100 yards back in Week 3.

On the Fence: RB Ezekiel Elliott

With a sub-3.0 yards per carry average on the ground in his return this past week, it’s tough to be overly optimistic about Elliott’s outlook going forward. However, the coaching staff in Dallas let it be known that they are going to continue to give him the ball regularly, as he immediately returned to a large workload in the Cowboys’ win over the Vikings, including carries that resulted in two short-yardage rushing touchdowns. Elliott has now scored five times over his past three starts and he’s clearly the team’s preferred goal-line back. With the Cowboys offense seemingly hitting its stride, Elliott has become a very Jamaal Williams-like goal-line stud who gives fantasy managers a decent floor due to volume and can also provide big points via touchdowns. With that said, Elliott is still being limited in practice and he has been objectively worse than teammate Tony Pollard with his touches, so there’s always a looming concern that he could become the low-end of the split backfield at any time.

Fade: TE Dalton Schultz

Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz has been one of the more disappointing options at the position this season. Whether it’s been because of the injuries he’s sustained, the injuries sustained by Dak Prescott, or just a general lack of connection, this has not been the breakout season that those who drafted him were hoping for. With that said, the tight end position has been terrible overall this season and Schultz does see enough volume in a fairly decent offense that he probably has to be started most weeks. It’s just worth noting that the Giants have been excellent against opposing tight ends this season. Only Mark Andrews has exceeded even 11 fantasy points against the Giants this season, so don’t expect a difference-making outcome from Schultz on Thanksgiving.

Prediction: Cowboys 27, Giants 16 ^ Top

Patriots @ Vikings - (Green)
Line: MIN -2.5
Total: 41.5

MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11

No Brainers: RB Rhamondre Stevenson

Favorite: WR Jakobi Meyers

Only the Steelers have allowed more passing yards per game this year than the Vikings (267.3), and when you’re talking about New England’s aerial attack you’re really just talking about Meyers. Despite missing two games, Meyers has more than twice as many receptions as any other wide receiver or tight end this season. In fact, Meyers (44) and Stevenson (41) are the only players with more than 20 catches on the year. Expect Meyers to be Mac Jones’ primary target again this Sunday against a suspect Vikings pass defense that relies on sacks and takeaways to protect their shaky secondary. He looks like a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3 here.

On the Fence: RB Damien Harris

While Harris has fallen well behind Stevenson, playing just 15 snaps in Week 11 to the latter’s 49, the Pats surely saw the Cowboys deploy the tandem of Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott to good success in Dallas’ 40-3 dismantling of Minnesota on Sunday. Harris made the most of his limited touches against the Jets, turning eight runs and a pair of receptions into 93 yards (9.3 yards per touch). You’d be threading the needle a bit by relying on Harris as more than a flex, but he does offer some upside.

Fade: N/A

NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10

No Brainers: RB Dalvin Cook, WR Justin Jefferson, TE T.J. Hockenson

Favorite: N/A

On the Fence: N/A

Fade: QB Kirk Cousins/WR Adam Thielen

For the season, the Pats sit fourth in pass yardage allowed (188.3 per game), second in sacks (36), and first in opponent completion percentage (55.7). That’s the last thing in the world Cousins wants to see after absorbing seven sacks this past Sunday and 11 over his last two games. Christian Darrisaw (concussion) has already been ruled out for the Thanksgiving night clash with New England, meaning Cousins with be without his blindside protector against a ferocious rush. While that’s not enough to consider downgrading Jefferson to a spot on your bench, both Cousins and Thielen, who is averaging a paltry 4 receptions, 45 yards, and 0.17 TDs per game over his last six, are best left in reserve.

Prediction: Vikings 20, Patriots 16 ^ Top

Falcons @ Commanders - (Caron)
Line: WAS -4.0
Total: 40.5

WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31

No Brainers: N/A

Favorite: QB Marcus Mariota

It’s hard to really be excited about a quarterback who’s thrown for 200 yards just three times all year and who just lost his young pass-catching tight end for the season, but the reality is that we don’t really like Marcus Mariota for his passing - we like that he’s running all over the place every week. He’s averaging nearly 34 rushing yards per game and he’s also added four scores on the ground, including this past week’s rushing touchdown against the Bears. The Commanders have given up rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in back-to-back games and they also gave up an 88-yard day on the ground to Justin Fields, so this is a pretty decent matchup for Mariota.

On the Fence: RB Cordarrelle Patterson

Washington has been excellent against opposing running backs this season and they’re coming off of a game in which they completely locked up Houston’s Dameon Pierce. We know that Cordarrelle Patterson is an explosive playmaker who’s capable of making big things happen even with minimal opportunities, but the fact that he’s touched the ball just 18 times over his past two games has to be a bit of a concern for fantasy managers. He’s still delivering decent enough numbers to be useful for fantasy, but he’s hard to trust that he’s going to do things like score a return touchdown each week. Patterson is no longer an RB2 and is more of a borderline Flex play until we see his volume get back up to near where it was earlier this season when he was producing big numbers.

Fade: WR Drake London

Rookie wide receiver Drake London scored early in this past week’s game, but then got completely shut down from that point on. London has now failed to exceed 40 receiving yards in eight straight contests. It’s true that he should see at least a bit of a target share increase now that Kyle Pitts is on IR, but this is still such a low-volume passing game that even a 30-percent target share could mean single-digit targets for the rookie if the Falcons have it their way and can run the ball all day long. We may see some higher volume games down the stretch as the Falcons play against some better offenses, but London is a low-upside play and should be on fantasy benches against teams like Washington.

ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9

No Brainers: WR Terry McLaurin

Favorite: RB Antonio Gibson

Perhaps analysts were a bit too quick to give up on Antonio Gibson. The running back has now seen 43 carries over his past three games and he’s remained an active member of the Washington passing game. In fact, Gibson has now caught at least three passes in seven of his past eight contests. He’s still conceding a ton of work on the ground to Brian Robinson Jr., but Gibson has looked like the better back in most games, allowing him to be a productive RB2 for fantasy. He now faces a terrible Atlanta defense that has given up five 20-point fantasy days to opposing running backs so far this season. Gibson is a solid RB2 as long as he continues to see the volume that he’s been getting.

On the Fence: RB Brian Robinson Jr.

He’s yet to average even 4.0 yards per carry in a game, but Robinson continues to be a big part of the Commanders’ offensive game plan each week. He’s averaging over 15 carries per game, allowing him to out-touch Antonio Gibson in multiple contests. While he hasn’t been extremely efficient with his touches, it’s hard to deny a player that’s getting double-digit touches in every game. He’s much more valuable in non-PPR formats, but the carry volume alone makes Robinson a viable Flex option even in PPR leagues.

Fade: WR Curtis Samuel

While Terry McLaurin has seen his numbers jump since Taylor Heinicke took over behind center, one player who’s seen a significant drop-off in production has been fellow wide receiver Curtis Samuel. Samuel started the season off red hot and was actually a WR1 early on, but he’s cooled off significantly and is now coming off of his first back-to-back sub-10-point games of the season. It hasn’t just been bad luck, either - Samuel just isn’t getting utilized like he was early on. He’s been targeted four or fewer times in four straight games, including this past week’s game when he saw just two passes come his way against the Texans. Samuel is an explosive playmaker who can do big things on limited opportunities, but this is just becoming too low of a volume to be trusted for fantasy lineups.

Prediction: Commanders 21, Falcons 17 ^ Top

Ravens @ Jaguars - (Ilchuk)
Line: BAL -3.5
Total: 42.5

JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20

No Brainers: QB Lamar Jackson, TE Mark Andrews

Favorite: WR Demarcus Robinson

Robinson has at least eight targets in two of the last three games, and with Rashod Bateman out, there’s no deep threat, meaning opposing defenses are sliding coverage to TE Mark Andrews in the middle of the field. Robinson has been reliable, and the Jaguars have been susceptible to the pass at times this season. He’s a WR2 in a run-first attack.

On the Fence: WR Devin Duvernay

Once thought to be the WR1 to be in this offense, Duvernay has just a single target in each of the last two games, hasn’t surpassed 50 receiving yards in a game since Week 5, and hasn’t scored since Week 3. But there he was a couple weeks ago, hauling in three passes on the first drive of the game. I’m leaning towards keeping him on the bench, but this could be the week he pops. He could be a sneaky flex.

Fade: RB Kenyan Drake

Drake didn’t get the volume last week (10-46-0, 2-7-0) after Gus Edwards was a Sunday inactive. This coming off his monster Week 9 performance against the Saints (24-93-2, 2-16-0). He has not been efficient, the Jags are tough against the run, and Lamar Jackson is going to lead the team in rushing every week.

BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17

No Brainers: RB Travis Etienne

Favorite: WR Christian Kirk

Kirk is beginning to separate himself as the clear WR1 in this offense, and QB Trevor Lawrence is playing well enough for it to matter from a fantasy perspective. Kirk has at least 75 yards in three of his last four outings and has posted three scores in the last two weeks. Against a Ravens defense that has been susceptible to the pass, he’s a good bet as a low-end WR1.

On the Fence: QB Trevor Lawrence

Lawrence has all the tools and has shown flashes with some big time throws and some athletic runs. But consistency has been the issue for him throughout the season, until recently. In the two games against the Raiders and Chiefs before last week’s bye, he completed 80% of his passes for nearly 500 yards (7.1 per attempt) and three touchdowns. Rested and presumably healthy off the bye week, facing a plus matchup against a forgiving Ravens defense, he could be a good spot start and he might be able to post low-end QB1 numbers.

Fade: TE Evan Engram

Full disclosure, I didn’t like Engram all the way back in his Giants days, and nothing much has changed since. With Christian Kirk and Zay Jones both emerging as consistent receiving threats, and Travis Etienne turning into the all-purpose back we knew he could be, Engram’s touches will be limited. He has just four catches for a combined 22 yards over the team’s last two games.

Prediction: Ravens 24, Jaguars 18 ^ Top

Bears @ Jets - (Caron)
Line: NYJ -7.0
Total: 38.5

NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19

No Brainers: N/A

Favorite: QB Justin Fields (shoulder)

Justin Fields has been one of the best turn-around stories in fantasy football so far this season and under normal circumstances, he’d be an easy “no-brainer,” but unfortunately these are not normal circumstances. Fields suffered an injury to his non-throwing shoulder and his status for this week’s contest is now up in question. In fact, there are rumors that, given Chicago’s 3-8 record with little playoff chances, the team may opt to shut him down for the year. It’s true that Fields has been delivering most of his fantasy points with his legs, but we still need him to at least threaten the defense with his arm, so this is a bit of a dangerous situation for fantasy even if he does suit up. Chances are that fantasy managers don’t have another QB rostered who gives them the ceiling/floor combination that Fields does, so he’ll probably need to be in most lineups anyway, but he’s certainly not a must-start until we see what his passing looks like following this injury.

On the Fence: RB David Montgomery

The Jets have allowed just one 100-yard rusher this season and only Nick Chubb, back in Week 2, scored more than one touchdown against this defense. They shut down Joe Mixon, Najee Harris, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, Devin Singletary, and they just held Rhamondre Stevenson to 15 carries for 26 yards. Where they have been exploitable is through the air. Unfortunately, David Montgomery is still a relatively low-volume pass catcher. He’s caught more than three passes just once this season and he’s been held to one or zero receptions in half of his games. He’s probably going to see an elevated touch share to begin with given the injury to Justin Fields’ shoulder, but he may need a lot of opportunities to truly deliver for fantasy this week.

Fade: WR Darnell Mooney, WR Chase Claypool, TE Cole Kmet

The Bears haven’t thrown the ball 30 times in any game this season and that was prior to Justin Fields’ shoulder injury. There’s a chance that Fields might not even play this week and even if he does, there’s a strong possibility that it won’t be at full capacity, at least from a throwing mechanics standpoint. That will only further incentivize the Bears to run a very slow-paced offense that doesn’t throw the ball down the field much, so don’t expect any of these Chicago pass catchers to get enough volume to make them strong plays here in Week 12.

CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30

No Brainers: N/A

Favorite: WR Garrett Wilson

It seems crazy that many of us were excited for Joe Flacco to get another opportunity to run an NFL offense here in 2022, but that’s how bad things have gotten in New York with Zach Wilson. The young QB has been terrible and seems to be losing the locker room, which many assumed would mean a move back to veteran Joe Flacco, but instead the team announced on Wednesday that they’d be going with journeyman Mike White. White has not been great in the minimal starting opportunities he had in 2021, but he did have a 400-yard, three touchdown game against the Bengals in one of his three starts.

This change should be viewed as a positive for rookie wide receiver Garrett Wilson who seemed to be creating a connection with Flacco early in the year, prior to the QB change. Wilson had his most productive game back in Week 2 when he caught eight passes for 102 yards and a touchdown. Perhaps even more interestingly, though, is that Wilson was targeted a whopping 33 times in his first three NFL games - all of which were quarterbacked by Flacco. He had a down week against the Patriots, as did everyone in the offense, but he’s otherwise been very good as of late and should be looked at as at least a WR3.

On the Fence: RB Michael Carter

The entire Jets offense was horrible in Week 11, so it’s difficult to judge Carter too harshly, but eight carries for 19 yards and negative yards in the passing game are pretty tough to overlook. Still, we had seen some decent production from Carter prior to the Week 11 disaster and there’s plenty of reason to be hopeful about a bounce-back game against the Bears here in Week 12. The Bears have given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs so far this season and with their own quarterback dealing with an injury, there’s a good chance that the game script in this contest ends up being a good one for Carter.

Fade: RB James Robinson

While Michael Carter has only been so-so as a starter since Breece Hall went down, the recently-acquired James Robinson hasn’t done anything to steal the job away. Robinson has averaged fewer than four yards per carry in all three of his appearances with the Jets and he’s caught just two passes. There’s always the possibility that the Jets decide to completely change things up and give Robinson more opportunities, but for now, he’s more of a wait-and-see type of player.

Prediction: Jets 23, Bears 16 ^ Top

Bengals @ Titans - (Ilchuk)
Line: pk
Total: 42.5

TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8

No Brainers: QB Joe Burrow, WR Tee Higgins

Favorite: TE Hayden Hurst

Hurst had a down day in Week 11 with two catches for 28 yards. But in the three contests before that he had 15 catches on 7 targets, among the most by TE’s across the league. Tennessee has taken its’ lumps against the pass this season, so even with the potential return of Ja’Marr Chase, he should still be in line for TE1 work.

Update: Joe Mixon is Out. Samaje Perine will get the start.

On the Fence: RB Joe Mixon

Mixon is a question mark for this week as he tries to work through concussion protocol, and even if he is cleared, Tennessee is allowing just 3.9 yards per rush, good for third in the NFL. Still, Mixon should be played if he’s healthy, but he’ll have to make hay as a receiver to boost his numbers.

Fade: WR Tyler Boyd

Though he saw an increased role in recent weeks while Ja’Marr Chase was injured that still left hm as the No.3 target behind Tee Higgins and TE Hayden Hurst. He had just two catches for 28 yards last week. With Chase potentially back in the fold, Boyd could fall into irrelevancy.

CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12

No Brainers: N/A

Favorite: RB Derrick Henry

Henry remains the only sure thing in this offense. Obviously, a dominant runner and a goal line beast, he’s improved as a receiver and now they even have him throwing touchdown passes as part of the game plan. As the Titans continue to piece together wins, it sems their first order of business is to figure out how Henry can be involved.

On the Fence: WR Robert Woods

My guess is a lot of owners will be excited about Treylon Burks after last week’s 100-yard effort against the Packers. But he will have the full attention of Cincinnati’s very capable secondary. Woods is supposed to be, has to be, the security blanket that QB Ryan Tannehill needs, and with coverage potentially rolling to the bigger, more explosive Burks, Woods should have favorable matchups as the short to intermediate possession receiver in this system. He has 14 targets over the last two weeks. Hopefully that’s the start of a trend.

Fade: QB Ryan Tannehill

Tannehill is coming off his best game of the season against a struggling Packers defense. This week, he faces one of the better secondaries in the NFL in the Bengals. The way to attack these Bengals is on the ground. Tannehill may get some opportunities to create in the play action game, but this will be the Derrick Henry show unless the Titans are forced to play catchup, but I don’t see that happening.

Prediction: Bengals 24, Titans 23 ^ Top

Broncos @ Panthers - (Ilchuk)
Line: DEN -1.5
Total: 36.5

CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21

No Brainers: TE Greg Dulcich

Favorite: RB Latavius Murray

Murray is the last man standing in Denver’s backfield. Javonte Williams is done for the year, Chase Edmonds is on IR, and Melvin Gordon has been cut. Murray has had at least 14 carries in three of the last five games with Edmonds and Gordon in the mix, so his carries should increase, as well as his goal line carries, even though they are few and far between for this offense. Carolina is giving up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to RB’s this season, so Murray could get a nice pop in production this week.

On the Fence: WR Courtland Sutton

With Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler both out of the lineup, QB Russell Wilson has had n choice but to force the ball to Sutton, who has 11 catches on 18 targets over the last two games. He has responded with some respectable yardage numbers, but the Broncos don’t score a whole lot of touchdowns, or even get in position to do so very often, so Sutton’s ceiling is limited. He’s a low-end WR2 just based on the fact that Wilson has to target someone.

Fade: QB Russell Wilson

You don’t need me to tell you this isn’t your Seattle Seahawks Russell Wilson. He hasn’t surpassed 300 passing yards in a game since Week 1 and hasn’t thrown multiple TDs in a game since Week 4. He’s completing just 59% of his passes with just 7 TDs on the season.

DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18

No Brainers: None

Favorite: WR D.J. Moore

Moore has been invisible with Baker Mayfield under center. But now that Sam Darnold has gotten the nod at QB this week, it could mean good things for Moore. The two connected 93 times last season with Darnold as the starter, a career high for Moore, as was his 4 TDs and three 100-yard games. Denver’s no easy layup when it comes to their defense, but Moore has some sneaky value as a WR2 this week.

On the Fence: WR Terrace Marshall Jr.

Twenty-three of Marshall’s 31 targets have come in the last four games. That could be a function of Baker Mayfield at QB, or it could be that people in Carolina are finally realizing that this kid can catch the ball, and he can do it from anywhere on the field. It’s not like the Panthers have a whole bunch of options in the pass game, so I’d expect him to put up flex-worthy numbers.

Fade: QB Baker Mayfield (moving forward)

Darnold is the starter for Week 12, and P.J. Walker is on deck if things go sideways. It looks like Mayfield got another swing at the job and whiffed. He’s a fantasy non-factor.

Prediction: Panthers 16, Broncos 13 ^ Top

Texans @ Dolphins - (Caron)
Line: MIA -14.0
Total: 46.5

MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3

No Brainers: N/A

Favorite: RB Dameon Pierce

Fantasy managers were frustrated this past week when Pierce was completely shut down by the Commanders, as he rushed for just eight yards on 10 carries, adding just two receptions for nine yards in the passing game. It was by far his worst performance as a starter since his Week 1 NFL debut when he played behind Rex Burkhead. It’s easy to lose faith in a young player like this when he has a bad game, but the Commanders have been an elite defense against opposing running backs all year long, so don’t let it cloud your judgment too much - this is still a player who’s seeing almost all of the touches out of his backfield. In fact, the only real concern for those rostering Pierce should be that this game against the Dolphins could end up getting out of striking distance for the Texans early, if Miami ends up putting points on the board as they have in many games. Even still, the Texans have shown a willingness to continue to feed Pierce the ball even in games where they fall behind, sometimes even through the air which we love to see for fantasy purposes. Pierce isn’t an RB1 this week, but he’s a strong RB2.

On the Fence: WR Nico Collins

The Texans are 12.5-point underdogs heading into this game, which should go to tell you that there’s a pretty strong likelihood that they’re going to be playing from behind yet again. That has worked out recently for wide receiver Nico Collins, who has now been targeted 17 times over his past two contests. While he hasn’t really turned those opportunities into huge fantasy production, he has been the team’s most effective pass catcher and it’s looking increasingly likely that he’s going to be the Texans’ WR1 going forward. He’s not a no-risk option by any means, but you could do worse than a player like Collins as your WR3/Flex this week.

Fade: WR Brandin Cooks

Cooks has long been considered a boring, but productive option for fantasy football. Unfortunately, he’s now become boring and unproductive as he continues to slide into fantasy obscurity. Cooks hasn’t reached even seven targets in a game since Week 4 and while he hasn’t fallen below five targets in any game, he also isn’t doing much with the opportunities he has. Cooks has been held to under 12 fantasy points in seven of his past eight contests and he’s now falling behind Nico Collins on the target totem pole. This is not the time to go back to Cooks.

HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13

No Brainers: QB Tua Tagovailoa, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Jaylen Waddle

Favorite: RB Jeff Wilson

After splitting snaps and touches roughly equally with Raheem Mostert in his Dolphins debut back in Week 9, Jeff Wilson really took over the backfield the last time we saw Miami on the field in Week 10. Wilson played over twice as many snaps as Mostert and ended up getting 19 touches in the Dolphins’ blowout win over the Browns. Most importantly, Wilson was hugely productive with his touches, as he produced 143 total yards to go along with a touchdown. Now he faces a Houston defense that is the league’s worst in fantasy points given up to opposing running backs, in a game in which the Dolphins are huge home favorites. The matchups don’t get much more appealing than this for a player like Wilson, so get him in your lineup.

On the Fence: RB Raheem Mostert

The emergence of Jeff Wilson has been a kick to the gut for fantasy managers rostering Raheem Mostert, as their back was doing fairly well prior to the move and now he’s seemingly fallen down to being the clear backup. Thankfully, Mostert did still deliver against the Browns in his most recent game, as he rushed for 65 yards and a touchdown on eight carries, but the obvious concern is that he could continue to lose touches to Wilson as the season goes on. Mostert would probably be a “fade” right now against most defenses, but he’s facing a Texans defense that is horrible enough against the running back position that most managers can probably still justify fitting him into their lineups at least for this one week.

Fade: TE Mike Gesicki

With just five total targets over his past two games, Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki is back on the “fade” list here in Week 13. He scored back in Week 8 against Detroit, but it was on only four targets and Gesicki has now been held to fewer than five targets in all but two games this season. Yes, he’s in a highly efficient offense in which he gets a high percentage of his targets in the red zone, but this lack of usage just is not conducive to large fantasy point performances and it often leads to complete duds. The Dolphins may not end up needing to pass the ball much in this one at all, so don’t bother with the guy who’s at best a distant third option in the pecking order.

Prediction: Dolphins 33, Texans 17 ^ Top

Buccaneers @ Browns - (Green)
Line: TB -3.5
Total: 42.5

CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29

No Brainers: WR Mike Evans, WR Chris Godwin

Update: Leonard Fournette is Doubtful.

Favorite: RBs Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White

Cleveland’s run defense has been bad for most of 2022, ranking 23rd in yards per game (135.1), 30th in rushing TDs allowed (16), and 28th in yards per carry (4.8). It was such an inviting matchup that even pass-happy Buffalo chose to run the ball 33 times last Sunday for 171 yards. The Bucs like to throw it, too, but they showed in Munich that they’re willing to hand it off, gashing the Seahawks for 161 yards on 44 carries. The question for Week 12 is how will those carries be distributed? Fournette (hip) posted a 14-57-1 line before departing with a hip pointer. Following the bye, however, he looks like he should play. In his absence, White carried the ball 22 times for 105 yards, and the rookie had already been playing more in recent weeks -- he logged 76 snaps in three previous games to Fournette’s 141. For this Sunday, both Fournette and White are playable as RB3/flex with some risk/reward attached.

On the Fence: QB Tom Brady

As noted above, Brady likes to throw, attempting 40 or more passes in seven straight games before the win over Seattle where he threw just 29 (his lowest since Week 1). Given Cleveland’s deficiency against the run, it would make sense to continue leaning on the ground game. Then again, only four teams have allowed a higher passer rating this season than the Browns, so it’s not as though they’re a lockdown pass defense. Expect Brady to at least take some shots and pencil him in as a low-end QB1 that could outperform that designation.

Fade: N/A

TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7

No Brainers: RB Nick Chubb, WR Amari Cooper

Favorite: TE David Njoku

Njoku returned last Sunday after a two-game absence with an ankle injury. He had just two receptions for 17 yards, but bear in mind that he was on a “pitch count,” playing 28 snaps compared to 55 for Harrison Bryant. Expect those restrictions to be loosened significantly in Week 12, especially after Bryant had a critical drop in the end zone in Cleveland’s loss to Buffalo. With the tight end position thinned considerably in recent weeks by injuries (Waller, Pitts, Goedert, Ertz), Njoku is someone that can be plugged into your starting lineup this week and, barring injury, each week moving forward.

On the Fence: QB Jacoby Brissett

Through his first nine starts, Brissett never threw for more than 278 yards in a game and had more than one TD pass in an outing just once (two in Week 3). Last Sunday, he passed for 324 yards and 3 touchdowns in an eight-point loss to the Bills. While much of that came in garbage time, we’re entering YOLO country for Brissett, who almost certainly is making his last start of the year with Deshaun Watson set to return from his 12-game suspension next Sunday. The journeyman remains safely nestled in the QB2 zone, but he has some upside if the Bucs can stymy Cleveland’s running attack.

Fade: RB Kareem Hunt

Over his last five games, Hunt has reached the 10-touch plateau just once, and that was during the team’s Monday night blowout over Cincinnati where he turned 15 touches into 72 yards. His role has largely evaporated, and the Buccaneers just showed over in Germany they could shut down a potent back in Seattle’s Kenneth Walker, who had 17 yards on 10 carries -- one week after rushing for 109 yards and 2 TDs. The one glimmer of hope from that game is Walker’s six catches for 55 yards, which plays much more to Hunt’s strengths than Chubb’s. Still, at best you’d consider Hunt a middling flex.

Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Browns 20 ^ Top

Raiders @ Seahawks - (Krueger)
Line: SEA -4.0
Total: 47.5

SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2

No Brainers: WR Davante Adams

Favorite: RB Josh Jacobs

Jacobs galloped to his fourth 100-yard rushing game last week against the Broncos and the Raiders RB now sits 4th in PPR points per game. Not bad for the pre-season RB21 in average draft position. No other running back got a carry for the Raiders against Denver and the workhorse role should continue against a Seahawks defense giving up the 7th most fantasy points to the position. Seattle has given up 100-yard rushing games to Cordarrelle Patterson, Jamaal Williams, Alvin Kamara and Rachaad White.

On the Fence: QB Derek Carr, TE Foster Moreau

Derek Carr has thrown 2 touchdowns in each of the last three games resulting in QB12, QB16 and QB12 finishes. He offers nothing on the ground which limits his fantasy ceiling and seems to only have eyes for Davante Adams in the passing game making his secondary options like Moreau and WR Mack Hollins shaky options on a weekly basis. Seattle has been tough on wide receivers this year but more forgiving against tight ends, allowing the second-most receiving yards to the position giving Moreau a decent chance at low-end TE1 value this week.

Fade: N/A

LV FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
LV FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
LV FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
LV FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5

No Brainers: RB Kenneth Walker

Favorite: WR DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett

Metcalf and Lockett have accounted for 81% of the team’s receiving yards at the wide receiver position as the team has rotated Marquise Goodwin and Dee Eskridge at the third wide receiver position. Lockett has scored in three straight games and Metcalf leads the team in targets (77). The Raiders have yet to give up a 100-yard receiving game but they’re ranked in the middle of the pack (15th) in fantasy points allowed and there’s nothing special about their secondary or scheme that should concern fantasy owners.

On the Fence: TE Will Dissly, Noah Fant

This is a good matchup on paper for the Seattle tight ends but keep in mind the Raiders gave up 4 TDs to Travis Kelce (Wk5) which skews their fantasy points allowed stats. Also completing matters is trying to decipher which tight end to play. Fant leads the duo in targets (38) but Dissly has a couple more TDs which is why you will find them closely ranked in just about any scoring system. I’ll typically lean towards volume in these scenarios making Fant the preferred option if you’re searching for a tight end in Week 11.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Seahawks 26, Raiders 23 ^ Top

Chargers @ Cardinals - (Krueger)
Line: LAC -3.0
Total: 48.5

ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1

No Brainers: RB Austin Ekeler

Favorite: QB Justin Herbert, WR Keenan Allen, TE Gerald Everett

Herbert got his two lead receivers back last week and although Mike Williams (ankle) didn’t last very long having them back made a huge difference for the QB and the offense as a whole. Even if Williams isn’t able to play this week the return of Allen as Herbert’s security blanket is huge for his fantasy prospects. Allen (hamstring) played 67% of the snaps last week and we expect that percentage to increase. He saw 8 targets and even connected a deep ball. He was full at practice on Wednesday which is a good sign he came out of the game just fine. The Cardinals have been a plus matchup for QBs this season and this game has the second-highest point total of the week.

Gerald Everett gets the best matchup for tight ends this week as nobody gives up more points to the position than Arizona. Problem is, Everett has been battling a groin injury and was downgraded to Out late last week. He was limited in practice this week but if he seems to back to full healthy by Sunday, then it’s a great spot for the Chargers tight end.

On the Fence: WR Josh Palmer

Palmer has been a viable fill-in this season while Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have been on the shelf with injury. He’s had double-digit targets in three out his last four games and is coming off his best fantasy game of the season (8-106-2) which was aided by Williams aggravating his ankle injury and leaving early in the first quarter. If Big-Mike sits this week, Palmer is worthy of Flex consideration as he’ll vault back into a starting role opposite Keenan Allen.

Update: Mike Williams is Out.

Fade: WR Mike Williams (ankle)

We had some conflicting reports on Williams’ practice status this week as he was originally scheduled to be limited on Wednesday but ended up sitting and also missed practice on Thursday. Even if he does play this week, he’ll be very difficult for fantasy owners to trust given his early departure in Week 11.

LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6

No Brainers: WR DeAndre Hopkins

Favorite: RB James Conner

The Cardinals have gone all-in on Conner after releasing Eno Benjamin a couple weeks ago. He got 24 touches in Week 10 then 16 touches last week while playing 78% of the snaps in a game where the offense sputtered. The Chargers don’t put up much resistance on defense and represent a plus matchup for fantasy running backs having allowed five 100-yard rushing games already this season – the latest to Isiah Pacheco of the Chiefs. Given the matchup and goaline usage, Conner is an easy RB2 in Week 12.

On the Fence: QB Kyler Murray (hamstring), TE Trey McBride

Murray has missed the last two games with a hamstring injury but is expected to return in Week 12 after full practices all week. Unfortunately, a good portion of his receiving crew is banged up. Rondale Moore missed practice Thursday with a groin injury and his replacement in the slot, Greg Dortch has also missed practice time this week with a thumb issue. Marquise Brown (foot) is expected to be on the field but will likely be limited. That leaves DeAndre Hopkins and 33-year-old A.J. Green as Murray’s top weapons. We might see rookie TE Trey McBride gets some extra opportunities if both slot receivers are out. He makes for a sneaky TE2 play.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Chargers 27, Cardinals 23 ^ Top

Rams @ Chiefs - (Krueger)
Line: KC -15.5
Total: 41.5

KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14

No Brainers: N/A

Favorite: N/A

On the Fence: WR Allen Robinson, TE Tyler Higbee

The Rams offense is broken. The loss of Cooper Kupp was tough, but now Matthew Stafford is on the shelf with yet another concussion. To make matters worse, the line has trouble pass-protecting and can’t consistently open holes in the running game. This doesn’t leave a lot for fantasy owners to chew on. Both Robinson (ankle) and Higbee (knee) have been limited in practice this week due to injury but are likely to play. There could be some garbage time value here given the state of this offense and team, you should temper your expectations.

Fade: QB John Wolford, QB Bryce Perkins

As of Thursday night, the Rams have yet to name a starting QB. We know it won’t be Matthew Stafford who is out with a concussion. Perkins offers some rushing ability and the matchup is decent against a Chiefs defense that is forgiving to passers and runners. However, given the offensive line woes for the Rams, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Chiefs-D dominate the backup QB and force the Rams into multiple turnovers and bad field position most of the night. Look elsewhere for your sneaky QB2 value.

LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26

No Brainers: QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce

Favorite: RB Isiah Pacheco

The Chiefs have found their primary early-down runner and that is rookie Isiah Pacheco. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is on the IR with a high ankle sprain and Jerick McKinnon is primarily used as a change of pace and on third downs. Expect to see Ronald Jones active in this game, but his involvement shouldn’t cut into the workload of Pacheco who’s seen 31 carries over the last two weeks. The expected positive game script and high team total (29.5) is a good setup for a fantasy running back. Thrown in a Rams defensive unit that’s given up the sixth-most fantasy points to the position you can strongly consider Pacheco a RB2 in Week 12.

On the Fence: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster

JuJu missed last week’s game with a concussion but has been practicing this week and is expected to get cleared in time for this week’s game against the Rams. Before the injury, he’d been Mahomes’ most trusted target not name Travis Kelce, leading the KC wide receivers in targets (64), receptions (46) and yards (615). Kadairus Toney is expected to miss with a hamstring injury, so expect to see a lot of JuJu, MVS and Justin Watson with some Skyy Moore sprinkled in. Yes, JuJu will see some of Jalen Ramsey in this game but as Doug Orth pointed out in his most recent article, opponents targeting the Rams DB over the last three weeks have found success to the tune of 23 receptions, 247 yards and two TDs. The Rams’ secondary hasn’t been one to shy away from this year and given the high throw rate of the Chiefs offense, you should feel comfortable keeping JuJu in your lineup.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Chiefs 30, Rams 17 ^ Top

Saints @ 49ers - (Krueger)
Line: SF -9.0
Total: 43.5

SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28

No Brainers: N/A

Favorite: WR Chris Olave

Olave notched his third 100-yard receiving game last week and now leads the Saints wide receiver group in targets (83), receptions (51) and yards (760). Even with Jarvis Landry returning last week and playing 56% of the snaps, Olave remains the focal point of the passing offense. The best way to attack the 49ers is through the air and specifically through the wide receiver position. Five receivers have had 100-yard games against this bunch including Tyler Lockett, Cooper Kupp, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Greg Dortch.

On the Fence: RB Alvin Kamara

Despite being ranked 8th in fantasy points per game (PPR), it’s been a rough go for Kamara this season. His numbers are skewed by a three-touchdown game in Week 8 against the Raiders… his only touchdowns of the season. He’s had only 29 rush attempts in his last three games and the 49ers have given up the second-fewest fantasy points to the position. There’s been chatter around Saints camp that Taysom Hill is going to be a more permanent fixture in the offense which can’t be good for Kamara’s ceiling. It’s doubtful that you have a better option, especially in season-long leagues, but I’d temper expectations for Kamara in this game and moving forward.

Fade: QB Andy Dalton

Dalton spiked last week with a three-touchdown game against the Rams, finishing as the QB8 on the week but he’s given you more subpar weeks than playable weeks, ranking 22nd among qualified QBs in our Consistency Calculator. The 49ers-D is no joke, ranking first overall and should be getting help up front with DT Arik Armstead (foot, ankle) and DE Samson Ebukam expected to return. New Orleans is 1-3 on the road this season and this feels like a multi-INT game for Dalton.

NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32

No Brainers: RB Christian McCaffrey, TE George Kittle

Favorite: WR Brandon Aiyuk

Ayiuk has his four-game 80-yard streak snapped last week against Arizona but made up for it by scoring two touchdowns. His second two-TD game of the season. He now ranks 15th in fantasy points per game, ahead of Deebo Samuel (21st), Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tee Higgins, Mike Evans and DK Metcalf. Sure, the 49ers have a plethora of weapons but Aiyuk should be able to keep his WR2 status going for another week against a Saints defense giving up the 9th most receiving yards to the position.

On the Fence: WR Deebo Samuel

Deebo’s fantasy output has been mildly disappointing up until last week when he totaled 94 and a TD against the Cardinals for his second-best fantasy day of the season. He does lead the 49ers in targets but is second behind Aiyuk in receptions and yards. The rushing floor that we feel in love with last season has shrunk significantly with the arrival of Christian McCaffrey but it did pay dividends last week with a 3-37-1 line on the ground. The Saints rank middle of the pack against WRs (14th) and are banged up in the secondary. CB Marshon Lattimore was limited in practice on Wednesday and hasn’t played since Week 5.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: 49ers 27, Saints 20 ^ Top

Packers @ Eagles - (Caron)
Line: PHI -6.5
Total: 46.5

PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25

No Brainers: RB Aaron Jones

Favorite: WR Christian Watson

A three-touchdown game against the Cowboys in Week 10 might’ve looked like a fluke, but Christian Watson added another two touchdowns against the Titans in Week 11 and now it’s looking significantly more like the breakout has finally happened. The Packers rookie does now face a significantly tougher matchup, however, as he’ll be up against an Eagles defense that has been very good against opposing wide receivers. The field-stretching wide receivers are the ones who’ve had success against Philadelphia, though, so there’s still hope that Watson can deliver for fantasy managers in what could be a difficult road environment.

On the Fence: WR Allen Lazard

Christian Watson’s breakout has been the talk of fantasy football over the past two weeks, so much so that it’s easy to forget about the player who’s operated as the WR1 in Green Bay for most of the season. Allen Lazard is still on the team and still seeing volume, with 25 targets over his past three games. He just hasn’t been able to fully connect for big plays and touchdowns. He’s still scored double-digit fantasy points in all but two starts he’s had this year, but he hasn’t yet had a truly big performance as he’s yet to reach the 20-point mark in any contest. It’s possible that Watson starts to see more targets which ends up limiting Lazard in what is already a difficult matchup against the Eagles, but the Packers’ WR1 should probably still be in most fantasy lineups this week.

Fade: WR Randall Cobb

The Packers wide receiver group got better in Week 11 when Randall Cobb returned from injury and immediately led the team with 73 yards on six receptions. While those numbers look decent, Cobb still operated as the clear WR3 in the Green Bay offense, playing far fewer snaps than starters Allen Lazard and Christian Watson. Cobb has just one game with more than six targets this season and the Eagles have been very good against opposing slot receivers this season, so this is not the week to be trying to start the third wide receiver in what has been a bad offense.

GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22

No Brainers: QB Jalen Hurts

Favorite: WR A.J. Brown, WR DeVonta Smith

A.J. Brown would’ve been a “no-brainer” for much of this season, but back-to-back disappointing performances definitely have fantasy managers questioning things. The Eagles’ WR1 has seen just 11 targets over his past two games - both down games for the Philadelphia offense overall - but he now faces a Packers defense that has allowed a 100-yard pass catcher in three of their past four games, including Treylon Burks this past week.

DeVonta Smith has been a low-upside option for most of the year, but he’s seeing plenty of targets come his direction despite being the second option in a low-volume passing game. He’s averaging seven targets per game, which is good for a share of over 24 percent. That’s only gone up over the past two weeks, as well, with the Eagles having lost tight end Dallas Goedert for the season.

Neither Brown nor Smith are studs at the moment, but both are pretty solid WR2s given the matchup.

On the Fence: RB Miles Sanders

The Packers have gotten lit up by opposing running backs in each of their past two games. Tony Pollard went for 128 total yards and a touchdown against them in Week 10 and Derrick Henry just produced 132 total yards and a touchdown against them in Week 11. They’ve allowed six different backs to produce over 100 total yards against them so far this season. While he’s been disappointing in each of his past two games, Miles Sanders is still getting the vast majority of the touches out of the Philadelphia backfield, as Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell have just nine combined touches over this two-week stretch. Sanders is unfortunately not the locked-and-loaded RB1 that he looked like for a stretch, but he’s still getting enough volume to be a pretty solid fantasy option for most teams.

Fade: WR Quez Watkins

With double-digit fantasy points in each of his past two games, some desperate fantasy managers might be looking for a player like Quez Watkins to be a bye-week or injury replacement. The reality, though, is that Watkins has just been abnormally efficient with his minimal usage as of late. He’s caught every pass that’s been thrown his direction over his past three games, but the problem is that has been just eight total passes. The Eagles are just not throwing the ball enough to have more than two reliable pass catchers on their roster. Jalen Hurts hasn’t attempted 30 passes in a game since all the way back in Week 5, so don’t expect that someone playing behind A.J Brown and DeVonta Smith is going to give you any sort of reliable fantasy production.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Packers 23 ^ Top

Steelers @ Colts - (Ilchuk)
Line: IND -2.5
Total: 39.5

IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15

No Brainers: N/A

Favorite: TE Pat Freiermuth

Freiermuth is the go-to guy in this offense in every sense of the word. He now has at least seven targets in each of the last four games and has at least 50 yards in three of those contests (including two 70+ efforts). As QB Kenny Pickett evolves, the TE will continue to be his security blanket and a valuable weapon this week against a Colts secondary that gives up the second-fewest fantasy points per game to WR’s.

On the Fence: RB Najee Harris

On your dad’s Steelers teams, Harris would be the star and the game plan wouldn’t call for 42 passes from a rookie QB. He’s a powerful back, and now that fellow backfield mate Jaylen Warren is dealing with a hamstring issue, Harris has taken over with back-to-back 20-carry, 90-yard efforts. Pittsburgh will need that again against a suffocating Colts secondary. Somebody tell Mike Tomlin and Matt Canada to run the ball!

Fade: WR Diontae Johnson

At one time, Johnson was expected to take over the mantle as the top receiver on this team. That hasn’t happened. Now coaches are talking about that title going to rookie George Pickens as Johnson has yet to produce a 100-yard game, doesn’t have a touchdown on the season, and hasn’t had more than five catches in a game since Week 3.

PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24

No Brainers: RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Michael Pittman Jr.

Favorite: WR Parris Campbell

While Pittman should continue to be the WR1 in this offense, Campbell has seen an increased target share in the second half of the season, and a significant jump in production the last two weeks with Matt Ryan back at QB. Campbell has at least five targets in five of the last six games, and over the last two contests he has a combined 12 catches for just under 150 yards and a touchdown. He’s a serious WR2 consideration against a Steelers secondary that is giving up the most fantasy points per game to WR this season.

On the Fence: QB Matt Ryan

Ryan has played better the last two weeks under interim HC Jeff Saturday, completing well over 70% of his passes on about 30 attempts per game against two pretty good defenses in the Raiders and Eagles. He’s only putting up about 6.6 yards per attempt, but you can pass on this Steelers defense that is allowing the third-most fantasy points to QBs, giving Ryan some sneak low-end QB1 upside in this matchup.

Fade: TE Kylen Granson

Prior to the season I remember there being a fair amount of talk about the Colts having a young, dynamic tight end group, potentially led by Granson. It hasn’t panned out. Granson has eclipsed 50 receiving yards just twice on the season, hasn’t found the end zone, and hasn’t registered more than four targets in a game since Week 1.

Prediction: Colts 21, Steelers 20 ^ Top