CeeDee Lamb has had a slow start by his lofty standards, but
his overall production — 13 catches for 218 yards and one
touchdown — is still respectable, especially given the challenges
some other top wide receivers have faced early in the season.
While it might feel discouraging not to see Lamb putting up massive
fantasy points like he did in 2023, there's no need to panic just
yet.
Lamb’s key indicators remain solid: he’s dominating snaps for
the Cowboys when their starters are on the field, and his 32 percent
target share signals that Dak Prescott is still looking his way
frequently. The upcoming matchup against the Giants offers some
hope, as New York has allowed strong performances to other wide
receivers like Amari Cooper and Justin Jefferson, even though
they kept Terry McLaurin in check.
Benching Lamb would be premature, especially given his talent
and involvement in the Cowboys' offense. He has the potential
to rebound quickly, and this week against the Giants could be
his chance to bounce back in a big way. Stick with him in your
lineup for Week 4.
The Cowboys' backfield situation has been a bit of a fantasy
headache, but Dowdle is emerging as a potential asset, especially
in passing situations. Although he's still in a near split with
Ezekiel Elliott, Dowdle's 15-percent target share and his efficiency
(4.0 yards per carry) give him an edge, particularly when Elliott's
production has been underwhelming at just 3.3 yards per carry.
While Dallas' offense has struggled overall, Dowdle's usage on
passing downs boosts his value, especially in PPR formats. This
week's matchup against the 1-2 Giants could provide a more favorable
game script, allowing Dowdle to carve out a larger role and contribute
in a more meaningful way than he has in the prior weeks.
If you're in a deeper league or need a desperation Flex, Dowdle’s
growing involvement in the Cowboys' offense makes him a more appealing
option this week, especially given his upward trend compared to
Elliott.
Prescott's fantasy production has been solid through the first
few weeks, but the high-volume passing we've seen in games like
the matchups against the Ravens and Saints (51 and 39 pass attempts,
respectively) isn't likely to be the norm, especially in Week
4 against the Giants. With Dallas looking to recover from a tough
two-week stretch, the focus will probably shift to a more conservative,
ball-control offense.
The Cowboys will aim to lean on their running game and defense,
especially against a Giants team that doesn't present an overwhelming
offensive threat. While Prescott can still be productive through
efficiency—something he's proven capable of—there
are reasons to be cautious about starting him this week. The game
script may not favor a big passing day, and if you're expecting
high-end fantasy numbers from him, it could be a good idea to
temper expectations.
If you have a solid backup QB with a more favorable matchup,
it wouldn't be unreasonable to consider starting them over Prescott
in Week 4. However, Prescott's proven talent and the potential
for efficient play still give him a decent floor.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
The Cowboys’ defense has been unexpectedly porous against
opposing running backs, giving up an alarming 36.5 PPR fantasy
points per game to the position. Both Alvin Kamara and Derrick
Henry eclipsed 100 rushing yards, and the trio of Jerome Ford,
Kamara, and Henry have collectively scored seven touchdowns in
just three games against Dallas.
This sets up an intriguing opportunity for Singletary, who has
been a workhorse for the Giants, playing over 70 percent of the
offensive snaps. He’s also seeing significant involvement in the
passing game, with a 14 percent target share, tied for third on
the team alongside Darius Slayton, and only behind Malik Nabers
and Wan’Dale Robinson.
Robinson, despite a slow Week 1 (just 52 total yards), has turned
it around, combining for over 200 total yards in his last two
games, which suggests a growing role. With the Cowboys' struggles
against the run and Singletary’s heavy usage, he has the
potential for a strong fantasy performance in Week 4. His role
as both a rusher and receiver make him a valuable fantasy option,
particularly in PPR formats, against a defense that's been susceptible
to backs all season.
Daniel Jones has rebounded impressively after a rough Week 1
performance against the Vikings. Over the past two games, he’s
demonstrated improved form, particularly in Week 3 with a solid
236-yard, two-touchdown outing against a more formidable Browns
defense. Jones also added 20 rushing yards, which adds to his
fantasy upside, especially for managers in Superflex leagues or
those dealing with injuries for quarterbacks like Justin Herbert,
Tua Tagovailoa, or Jordan Love.
While the Cowboys' defense has struggled mightily against the
run, they’ve been more effective against the pass, though
it’s worth noting that both the Saints and Ravens played
conservatively late in their wins over Dallas, limiting the passing
volume for Derek Carr and Lamar Jackson.
Jones presents as a sneaky streaming option for Week 4. He’s
at home on a short week against a Cowboys defense that’s
been reeling, making this a prime opportunity for him to continue
his solid fantasy production. With his dual-threat ability, he’s
worth a look for fantasy managers in need of a quarterback.
The Cowboys' defense has indeed struggled in several areas through
the first three weeks, but they've managed to contain wide receivers
relatively well, keeping them from piling up yardage or receptions.
Despite allowing touchdowns to Jerry Jeudy, Rashid Shaheed, and
Rashod Bateman, none of those receivers eclipsed 100 yards or
caught more than five passes. This suggests that while they are
vulnerable in the red zone, they are still limiting big plays
from opposing wideouts.
For the Giants, Malik Nabers' massive target share could make
him the first receiver to break through this barrier. His consistent
involvement in the offense points to a strong Week 4 showing,
but given the limitations of the Giants' passing attack, it's
less likely we'll see multiple Giants receivers having big games.
Nabers is a strong play, but temper expectations for the other
wideouts like Robinson or Darius Slayton (thumb). The Cowboys'
defense may continue its trend of bending but not breaking against
receivers, limiting the overall upside of the Giants' passing
game.
The Colts’ defense has been picked apart in a variety of ways
this season by just about every offense they’ve faced. They have
allowed multiple 150-yard rushers which should get Najee Harris
managers excited. The Steelers will likely also be without Jaylen
Warren in Week 4, opening the door for Harris’ role to grow. Harris
has 56 percent of snaps and handled 70 percent of backfield rushes
this year. These numbers could both spike and Harris has a chance
to put up his most efficient and productive game of the year against
a defense that’s been run all over.
The Colts’ defense has also struggled to contain vertical and
traditional “X” receivers. Both Nico Collins and Rome Odunze went
for over 110 yards against this secondary. George Pickens could
very easily be next. The production hasn’t been there for Pickens,
but the opportunity has been. Pickens accounts for 50 percent
of the team’s air yards and is seeing the ball thrown his way
on a quarter of his routes. With this sort of usage, he will have
the chance to burn a vulnerable Indianapolis secondary for a big
play or two.
Pat Freiermuth has been the No.2 pass-catching option in this
offense. He’s seen a 17-percent target share and boasts a ridiculous
92-percent catch rate. He has been working the shallow portion
of the field and has been a reliable safety blanket for Justin
Fields. His role as a checkdown target isn’t “sexy” for fantasy,
but he is consistently scoring in the range of 7.0 PPR points
which is disappointingly quite reliable for a TE in 2024.
On the Fence: N/A
Fade: N/A
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
We’re at the point where it is almost impossible for fantasy
managers to convince themselves to start a Colts’ pass catcher.
The only way for one of them to return value is by catching a
deep pass which is incredibly difficult to rely on given Anthony
Richardson’s inaccuracy.
The combination of a low-volume passing attack and Richardson’s
struggles with accuracy create an environment that no fantasy
manager should want to be a part of. The Colts have a pass rate
over expectation of -11 percent which ranks 28th among all teams.
As a result, Richardson has just 83 dropbacks on the year, the
second-fewest of any quarterback who has played three full games.
This lack of volume requires a quarterback who is highly efficient
and accurate as a passer to sustain fantasy-relevant receivers.
Richardson is not that kind of quarterback. 28.8 percent of his
throws this season have been deemed off-target which is the highest
rate of any starting quarterback by a healthy margin. Caleb Williams
sits at 22.9 percent.
Unless Shane Steichen dramatically shifts his offensive philosophy
or Richardson develops as a passer, all Colts pass catchers belong
on benches.
If you would’ve told people back in August that after three
weeks, Darnold would lead the NFL in passing touchdowns you would’ve
been subject to ridicule. That’s the world we currently
live in, however, with the former first-round pick averaging 219
yards per game through the air to go alongside an 8:2 TD-to-INT
ratio. Darnold has exceeded all reasonable expectations. The same
could be said of the Packers defense, which leads the NFL in takeaway
(9) and interceptions (7). They’re also tied for fifth in
sacks (11). While Green Bay hasn’t reached a point where
you’d be scared to play guys against them, Darnold carries
notable downside into this divisional showdown.
Addison (ankle) hasn’t played since Week 1 due to an ankle
injury. He returned to practice on a limited basis this week,
and the team is hopeful he can return, but it’s unclear
whether that will happen. In Addison’s absence, Nailor has
been the de facto WR2. While he has just seven receptions on the
season, three of them are touchdowns, including one each week.
That’s impressive, but he’s not getting the kind of
volume in terms of targets that provides a lot of faith that he’ll
continue to deliver decent value. There’s also uncertainty
surrounding both players. If Addison returns, does he get a full
workload or is he eased back in? Does Nailor see his already modest
role shrink further? Neither player should be viewed as more than
a flex.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
All the way back in Week 1, Reed torched the Eagles for 138 yards
receiving, 33 yards rushing, and a pair of touchdowns. In two
weeks since, he has 59 yards through the air and 56 yards on the
ground. When you consider that most of Green Bay’s offense has
flowed through the running backs the past two games, that’s impressive
production. While it’s not a sure thing, it appears that Jordan
Love (knee) is trending toward returning in Week 4, which would
allow the Packers to go back to the pass-centric scheme they’ve
favored under Matt LaFleur. That’d be good news for Reed, who
totaled 172 yards and 2 TDs in two meetings with Vikings as a
rookie. He’s a WR3 if Malik Willis starts. With Reed, he’s a WR2
that might reach WR1 status.
As noted, Love is considered likely to be back under center this
Sunday. Given how dire things looked at the end of the Week 1
loss to Philly, it borders on the miraculous. While it would be
tempting to get Love right back in your lineup given his upside,
let’s pump the brakes at least momentarily. First, there’s the
rust factor. In the modern NFL, those first few weeks often feel
like glorified preseason games, and Love missed those reps. Second,
the Vikings has looked really good defensively, leading the league
in sacks (16) and shutting down the Texans last Sunday. On the
flip side, the Packers offense has been rolling, even without
Love, who lit up Minnesota the last time he faced them: 256 yards
passing, 4 total TDs. There’s QB1 upside here with some risk.
Wilson looks to be a nice find for the Packers, filling in at
RB2 after the team lost AJ Dillon (neck) in the preseason and
rookie MarShawn Lloyd (ankle) after Week 2. Last Sunday in Tennessee,
Wilson turned 14 touches into 85 yards and a touchdown, which
should get him rostered in a lot of fantasy leagues. Whether he’ll
see as much work with Love under center is debatable. Green Bay
has a ton of young talent at receiver and tight end that hasn’t
seen the ball much over the past two weeks, so LaFleur might want
to concentrate on feeding them rather than the No. 2 back. While
you could try Wilson as a flex, it’s probably safer to sit him
completely this weekend.
Brian Thomas Jr. is comfortably within WR3 territory at this
point. He has shown an ability to draw targets at a reasonable
rate (0.20 TPRR) and gets looks in the intermediate portion of
the field that provides a solid floor. Thomas also has a nice
ceiling thanks to his downfield targets. Trevor Lawrence ranks
3rd among quarterbacks with 15 deep passes. Thomas has seen three
of them and converted on all three, resulting in 108 yards. The
Jaguars will likely be playing from behind in this one and Thomas
should see a steady dose of targets that allow him to finish in
the WR3 or flex range.
We finally got a glimpse of the Christian Kirk of old last week.
He saw more than four targets for the first time this season.
Kirk saw ten targets, converting eight of them into 15.9 PPR points
Kirk is unlikely to be a 16 PPG receiver, but this is far closer
to what we should expect from him down the stretch this year.
His role in the slot provides him with shallow targets that typically
lead to a high catch rate. Like Thomas, the game script should
lead to plenty of looks, allowing Kirk to finish with somewhere
in the range of 12 PPR points.
Fade: N/A
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Running back can be a plug and play position. When the starter
goes down, the backup can sometimes seamlessly assume the role
and expected fantasy production of the starter. In the case of
Cam Akers, he seems to be in line to be the Texans starting running
back once again after Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce both logged
DNPs on Wednesday and Thursday.
With Mixon and Pierce sidelined last week, Akers saw 10 of the
16 backfield opportunities in a game that was never really in
reach for the Texans. Akers operated as the Texans’ early-down
back (before the game was a complete blowout) and played 29 of
32 on first and second down snaps, according to PFF. With a more
favorable game script in Week 4, Akers can be confidently started
as an RB2
Dalton Schultz is in a tough spot in Week 4. There’s nothing
particularly encouraging about what he’s done this year. He is
the TE32 this year and has accounted for less than 10 percent
of the targets in Houston. However, given the current state of
the tight end position and the available opportunity in Houston,
you might be able to squint and see a spot for Schultz in your
lineup. The only appealing part of Schutlz’s outlook is that Tank
Dell is unlikely to play in this one which would open up 14 percent
of the “target share pie” in Houston. If Schultz can claim part
of that missing piece of the pie, he could be a viable option
for teams with no real TE1.
After a goose egg in Week 3, it may be hard to go back to Rashid
Shaheed in Week 4. But the looks were there in Week 3; he saw
five targets, one of which could have resulted in a long touchdown
had it not bounced off Shaheed’s arms.
Shaheed’s week-to-week outlook remains the same. He is
a volatile, high-ceiling flex play. He will see some intermediate
targets that provide a non-zero floor, but his fantasy value is
almost entirely driven by his ability to connect with Carr on
a deep ball. Weeks 1-3 have proven that Shaheed will get those
looks on a regular basis; he is tied for second among WRs with
four targets that were at least 35 yards downfield. The question
becomes whether your lineup is strong enough elsewhere to withstand
the weeks where his deep look(s) doesn’t result in a reception.
It’s become quite clear that offensive coordinator Klint
Kubiak wants this offense to flow through Alvin Kamara and the
rushing attack. The Saints currently rank 29th in pass rate over
expectation and 32nd in overall pass rate. As a result, Derek
Carr has just 69 dropbacks on the year, dead last for quarterbacks
who have started all three games.
Yes, some wonky game scripts have played a role in this. But
even in a tight game against the Eagles in Week 3, Carr only dropped
back 27 times and New Orleans had a PROE of -13 percent. Carr
will have to be highly efficient to be fantasy-relevant and there
are likely better options out there who are in offenses with a
higher pass rate.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Pitts has undoubtedly disappointed those who drafted him this
season. 8.2 PPR points per game and a 12-percent target share
were simply not what you were looking for when spending a mid-round
pick on Pitts. The reality of the situation is that Pitts must
be started in the current TE landscape. His 24.5 PPR points through
three games slots him in as the TE10. It would be preferable to
leave Pitts on the bench, but few teams have a viable and reliable
outside of Pitts.
The disappointment of Pitts can largely be attributed to the
success and involvement of newcomers Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray
McCloud. Both have higher target shares than Pitts and are mainstays
in the Falcons’ starting lineup.
From a usage perspective, Mooney and McCloud are almost carbon
copies of each other. Both are hovering right around a 20-percent
target share, a 10-yard aDOT, and both have comparable air yards
shares. Both could realistically be started at the Flex in a worst-case
scenario. The slight edge goes to Mooney who has a higher route
participation and has been more efficient, averaging 2.06 yards
per route run.
With Puka Nacua (knee) on Injured Reserve and Cooper Kupp (ankle)
already ruled out, the Rams are minus their two top targets. That
might cripple some offenses, but the combination of Matthew Stafford
and Sean McVay have enough experience and ingenuity to keep things
moving (just ask the 49ers). Somebody is going to catch passes
for Los Angeles this weekend. Among the candidates -- Tyler Johnson,
Colby Parkinson, Tutu Atwell -- it feels like Robinson is most
likely to hit. Granted, that wasn’t the case against San Francisco
where Atwell outproduced Robinson 93 yards to 32, but Robinson
has been in the NFL for a long time and was the WR3 when Nacua
and Kupp were both healthy. He’d be a risky play, but he’s not
without flex appeal.
While Stafford deserves a lot of credit for making chicken salad
out of... well, his current situation, the numbers simply aren’t
there. Over the last two weeks, he has combined for 437 yards
and 1 TD. He doesn’t run. So, where are the fantasy points
going to come from? While the Bears have struggled this season,
the majority of that has come on the offensive side of the ball.
Look for the Rams to try to attack Chicago on the ground, where
they’re allowing 4.5 yards per carry, and sprinkle in the
passing game.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
With Keenan Allen (heel) still working his way back from a heel
injury, Odunze stepped up last Sunday, catching a half-dozen passes
for 112 yards and a touchdown. His 11 targets matched Cole Kmet
for team-high honors. While Allen could return in Week 4, it shouldn’t
dramatically change the rookie’s role. He’s more of a downfield
threat than the veteran Allen, who would appear more likely to
siphon targets from Kmet. Odunze certainly has the right opponent.
The Rams sit 29th against the pass, surrendering 248.7 yards per
game, and we just saw them get cooked by Jauan Jennings, who is
known primarily for his blocking ability, for 175 yards and 3
TDs. Odunze could be a WR2.
Williams put together his first impactful statistical performance
of the season in Week 3, throwing for 363 yards, 2 TDs, and 2
INTs. While it was a step in the right direction in comparison
to the first two games in which he combined for 267 yards, 0 TDs,
and 2 INTs, there’s some less encouraging signs beneath
the surface. Most notably, it’s that much of his production
came in a two-minute drive before halftime, including a Hail Mary
that was caught for 44 yards, and two fourth-quarter drives when
the Colts held a two-score lead. The Bears covered 221 yards on
those three drives. On the other nine, it was 217 yards and four
turnovers. Los Angeles is an injury-riddled defense that’s
ripe for exploitation. That gives Williams potential, but don’t
think playing him on Sunday comes without downside.
Heading into play last week, the Colts had allowed 237 yards
rushing per game, and 5.1 yards per carry. They’d also placed
star DT DeForest Buckner (ankle) on IR. The Bears ran 28 times
for 63 yards (2.3 YPC). Their leading rusher was Roschon Johnson
as Swift managed just 20 yards on 13 carries (1.5 YPC). For the
season, Swift has carried the ball 37 times for 68 yards (1.8
YPC). He’s averaging 38 total yards per game. While you likely
used a second- or third-round pick on Swift, and even though the
Rams are just one spot ahead of the Colts versus the run, you
should check your alternatives before committing even a flex spot
to Swift.
With A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith likely to remain sidelined
this week, the Eagles are set to roll out a heinous trio of Jahan
Dotson, Parris Campbell, and Johnny Wilson. Don’t fall into the
trap of thinking, “Well someone must see the targets.”
First off, targets are earned, not given. Jahan Dotson, a known
non-target earner, has run 89 routes and seen just three targets
despite operating as the de facto WR2 for two weeks. Dallas Goedert
is the only legitimate target earner (who is healthy) on this
team right now and will be funneled targets, as he was in Week
3.
More importantly, this offense is just going to flow through
the rushing attack. Saquon Barkley saw 21 opportunities in Week
3 and will crack 20 with ease in this once again. Don’t
be shocked if Jalen Hurts gets more designed rushes as usual.
Tampa Bay ranks 29th in EPA allowed per rush; Philadelphia should
have no issue leaning on the legs of Barkley and Hurts in this
one.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
After scoring 29.7 points (QB2) against Washington and 19.8 points
(QB5) against Detroit, Baker Mayfield has proven that he can be
a viable fantasy option against weak secondaries.
The Eagles are another suspect secondary that Mayfield can pick
apart with his two veteran wide receivers. This is a group that
has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in two of their three
games this season. Kirk Cousins and Jordan Love were those two
quarterbacks, both of whom finished as a top-12 quarterback on
the week.
Mayfield has been responsible for at least two touchdowns in
two of his three games this year. He is a strong pick to do it
a third time in Week 4. With the current state of Rachaad White
and the Buccaneers’ rushing attack, Mayfield may rack up some
solid yardage as well. If you’re in a bad spot at QB and need
a streaming option, look no further than Mayfield.
Update: Rachaad
White (illness) and Bucky Irving (hamstring) are expected to play.
Rachaad White is an absolute nightmare to evaluate for fantasy
football. On the bad side, he has been one of the league’s
most inefficient rushers. He is averaging an abysmal 2.1 yards
per carry and his -1.49 rush yards over expected per attempt is
third to last among all qualified rushers. Through two weeks,
even Baker Mayfield had more yards on the ground than White.
On the “good” side, it appears that Tampa Bay still prefers White
in the situations that create high-value touches: passing downs
and goal-to-go situations. White has a route participation of
55 percent and has handled every single goal line carry. Even
if White loses work to Bucky Irving on the ground, he can be a
low-end RB2 if he maintains a role through the air and at the
stripe. For the time being, White falls into the Flex range, but
ideally, you have a better option.
As of now, the Cincinnati backfield belongs to Zack Moss. This
isn’t a 1A/1B situation; Moss is the go-to guy and Chase
Brown comes in as a change of pace option. Through three weeks,
Moss has played 76 percent of the snaps, handled 57 percent of
the team’s carries, and seen an 11-percent target share.
He is also handling the goal line work as well. Based on role
alone, Moss is a strong RB2 start until something changes in this
backfield.
Tee Higgins had a somewhat quiet return to the field in Week
3, posting just 39 yards on three receptions. But the Bengals
showed no signs of easing him back from his hamstring. He ran
a route on 95 percent of dropbacks and saw a healthy six targets.
Given the nature of the Bengals’ offense, Higgins is a safe
Flex option moving forward. Cincinnati ranks 4th in overall pass
rate, 1st in pass rate over expectation, and 1st in early-down
pass rate. This sort of offensive philosophy will sustain strong
production from Higgins this season.
Andrei Iosivas was an exciting last-round dart throw in drafts
with the expectation that he would take on the role vacated by
Tyler Boyd. He has done a good job of it thus far, coming in at
third on the team in targets (17) and ranking as the WR28 in fantasy
through three weeks. It’s just difficult to rely on Iosivas for
stable, sustainable production. 60 percent of his fantasy scoring
this year has come from three touchdowns. Iosivas is clearly not
going to keep up his touchdown-per-game pace and only belongs
in the lineups of truly desperate teams.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
The pieces of the puzzle finally fell into place for Diontae
Johnson in Week 3. The Diontae Johnson “truthers” had been pounding
the table, saying that he is still an elite target earner and
separator, he just needed stable quarterback play. This all proved
to be true in Week 3. Andy Dalton came in and was able to lead
sustained drives and scored 21 points in a single half, something
Bryce Young only did once in his 18 starts. Johnson was peppered
with targets throughout the game, commanding a 38-percent target
share. The jury is still out on Dalton’s ability to sustain this
level of effectiveness, but Johnson is a strong flex option for
the time being.
Johnson wasn’t the only player who benefited from offensive
stability in Carolina. Chuba Hubbard had his best game of the
year and looked like the viable fantasy starter that we saw at
the end of 2023. Hubbard played 58-percent of the snaps last week,
handling 26 of the 35 backfield opportunities in the process.
Carolina now gets a Cincinnati defense that ranks 26th in rushing
yards allowed per game, 21st in stuff rate, and 31st in EPA allowed
per rush. This is setting up to be a strong week for Hubbard.
After throwing for 319 yards and three scores, it can be tempting
to start Andy Dalton this week. It’s pretty easy to recognize
that this performance is on the high end of Dalton’s range
of outcomes. A win with Dalton under center is him acting as a
game manager who can keep the offense afloat. Don’t expect
him to go out there and be a gunslinger every week.
Courtland Sutton's fantasy outlook may look underwhelming through
three weeks, but his 24-percent target share provides reason for
optimism. Although his yardage (132) and lack of touchdowns have
kept his point totals modest, Sutton’s volume remains promising,
especially considering his 12 and 11 targets in two of his three
games. The dip to just four targets in Week 2 was concerning,
but it appears to be more of an anomaly than the norm.
In Week 4, Sutton faces a Jets defense that has generally performed
well against wide receivers but has still allowed a receiver to
have a decent fantasy day in every game so far. Sutton’s
consistent involvement in the Broncos' passing game makes him
a solid WR3 or Flex play, particularly in PPR formats. While he
may not offer the highest ceiling this week, his target volume
should give him a reliable floor, making him a safer option for
fantasy managers needing stability.
Javonte Williams has shown promise as the lead back for the Broncos,
but his usage remains a concern for fantasy managers. While Williams
has played over 56 percent of the team’s snaps this season, his
touches have been inconsistent, as seen in Week 3 when he managed
only nine touches despite playing more snaps than his backfield
counterparts, Jaleel McLaughlin and Tyler Badie.
This continued split in touches limits Williams' upside, making
him a more volatile fantasy option. Even with his role as the
primary back, the involvement of McLaughlin and Badie keeps his
weekly workload uncertain. If the Broncos continue their committee
approach, Williams may again face a lower volume of opportunities.
For Week 4, Williams can still be a Flex, but fantasy managers
should temper expectations. His role as the lead back is there,
but the inconsistent touches and committee usage reduce his ceiling.
Keep an eye on game flow, as Williams' workload may fluctuate
depending on how the Broncos decide to balance their backfield.
The Broncos' backfield is turning into a frustrating situation
for fantasy managers, especially with the emergence of Tyler Badie
in Week 3. Badie, who played just three snaps over the first two
weeks, suddenly saw an increase in involvement, playing 13 snaps
and converting nine carries into 70 yards. This performance raises
concerns for Jaleel McLaughlin, who had been seen as a bench stash
with potential.
McLaughlin's fantasy value takes a hit with Badie's involvement,
as the Broncos seem committed to a committee approach. For now,
neither McLaughlin nor Badie can be trusted in fantasy lineups
until we get a clearer picture of their roles. Both are bench
stashes, but this is a situation to avoid starting in most formats
unless one of them clearly emerges as the primary backup or Williams'
workload changes.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Garrett Wilson has had a solid start to the season, with 15 catches
for 150 yards and a touchdown through three games. While his connection
with Aaron Rodgers hasn’t quite clicked to the extent that many
fantasy managers had hoped, Wilson's elite 27 percent target share
is keeping him fantasy-relevant. Even though he’s caught just
15 of 26 targets, that high usage gives him a safe floor each
week, making him a dependable WR2.
However, Wilson’s Week 4 matchup against Patrick Surtain
II is concerning, as Surtain is one of the league’s premier
shutdown corners. This could limit Wilson’s ceiling, but
given his talent and target volume, he's still a must-start in
most lineups. If the Jets' offense continues to improve, better
days could be ahead for Wilson, even in tough matchups.
Allen's limited snap count hasn't hindered his production for
the Jets, as he's averaging over five yards per carry on 19 attempts
and has already found the end zone both on the ground and through
the air. His Week 3 performance was particularly encouraging,
where he carried the ball 11 times and caught three passes, despite
playing just 23 total snaps.
For fantasy managers desperate for running back help, Allen presents
an intriguing option, especially in a favorable matchup like this
one where the Jets won’t likely fall behind on the scoreboard
if at all. The fact that he’s been efficient with his limited
opportunities makes him a potential flex play, particularly this
week against a defense that has given up over 300 rushing yards
in three games. While his snap count limits his ceiling, his efficiency
and ability to contribute in both the run and pass game give him
some upside.
ALazard's surprising early-season production has been buoyed
by touchdown efficiency, scoring three times on just 11 receptions,
leading to an unsustainable 27 percent touchdown rate. While this
has made him a viable fantasy option through three weeks, it’s
difficult to count on that kind of efficiency continuing, especially
heading into a Week 4 matchup against a Broncos defense that has
been excellent at limiting opposing wide receivers.
Though Lazard remains a trusted red-zone target for Rodgers,
the tough matchup and likelihood of touchdown regression make
him a risky play. He’s not a terrible option in deeper leagues
or for those desperate for a WR3/Flex, but manage your expectations.
With 88 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns in the season’s
opening week, it didn’t take long for the rushing ability
of Jayden Daniels to convert to the NFL. With a breakout passing
day in Week 3 (254 passing yards and 2 TDs), and a league-leading
80.3 completion percentage through three weeks, it hasn’t
taken that much longer for Daniels to showcase his tremendous
ball placement capabilities at the pro level, either. There will
be challenges ahead for the rookie as he gets acclimated to the
pro game, but this week should be a soft matchup. The Cardinals
have surrendered 4 passing touchdowns and 2 rushing touchdowns
against just 1 interception in the early going, a year after allowing
the 4th most points to opposing quarterbacks. This is a very sweet
spot for Daniels to have another strong QB1 day.
Meanwhile, running back Brian Robinson Jr. enters Week 4 ranked
No.15 among fantasy backs, and will face off with a Cardinals
defense that has given up the 10th most points to RB’s, after
allowing the most to backs last season. Top this off with the
fact that Austin Ekeler is out while dealing with a concussion,
and Robinson can be locked in as an RB1 this week.
The lack of involvement for McLaurin through two weeks alarmed
many fantasy owners and caused quite a few to trade him away,
but Week 3 saw a return to form as McLaurin converted 6 targets
into 100 yards on 4 receptions, with a touchdown. Last week, the
Commanders coaching staff opened up the gameplan after Daniels
threw a lot of screens and short passes through the first two
games (4.4 intended air yards averaged between Week’s 1
and 2).
McLaurin could be in for another good day, with training wheels
coming off of Daniels and an Arizona defense that is middling
against receivers. However, the Cardinals are also vulnerable
to Daniel’s running abilities, meaning McLaurin securing
6-8 targets is not a lock. He’s certainly worth considering
as a flex, but shouldn’t yet be at the front of your WR
group unless you’re short-handed.
Tight end Zach Ertz is going to yield playing time at some point
to prospect Ben Sinnott, just as he did to Trey McBride in Arizona.
Whether that happens this year remains to be seen, but for the
time being Ertz has started all three games and played 67% of
snaps, while Sinnott is playing behind 2nd tight end John Bates
and has yet to see a target. With this opportunity, Ertz has turned
out a quietly respectable 12 receptions for 128 yards on 13 targets.
Ertz doesn’t have a particularly high ceiling at this point in
his career, playing primarily as a safety valve, but in a Commander’s
offense short of passing weapons – especially sans Austin Ekeler
this week – Ertz is reasonably a high floor play for anyone short-handed
at the position.
Both Luke McCaffrey and Noah Brown have caught all of their targets
this year. The issue is that they only have 6 each. Brown has
played only two of his team’s three games, and seeing only
41% of snaps compared to McCaffrey’s hardly robust 51%.
McCaffrey has the talent to grow into a larger role, but Brown’s
experience may get in the way for now, and neither receiver seems
to offer a reliable performance. McCaffrey is perhaps worth stashing
on your bench, anticipating the possibility that he becomes a
solid flex option later in the year.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Harrison had a strong follow up to his break out Week 2 performance,
scoring another touchdown and producing 64 yards on 11 targets.
With just a 45% completion rate on his targets thus far, and a
completely missed TD opportunity in Week 1, there’s meat
to be found on the bone. Facing a Washington team that’s
given up the most points to receivers thus far, including a whopping
9 touchdowns, Harrison’s familiarity with the end zone may
continue in Week 4.
Meanwhile, Conner should be in line for a bounce back game, following
just 17 yards rushing against a stout Lions front. The Commanders
are far more vulnerable, though they are not quite the red carpet
for running backs that they were last year (when they allowed
the 5th most points), having added significant linebacker help
in Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu. Still, they’ve given up the
12th most points per game to running backs, and Conner has been
a reliable start against all but the toughest defenses during
his three years in Arizona. At worst, he’s a RB2 with significant
RB1 upside this week.
Seeing 79% of snaps this year, well ahead of wideout Greg Dortch
(53%), Wilson should be in line to benefit from facing a porous
Washington secondary, in a game that could be a back-and-forth
scoring affair. Wilson is coming off a 9 target, 8 reception game,
but this should not be expected as the norm, or even necessarily
what should happen this week against the Commanders, as Wilson
is averaging a little over 4 targets per game (this year and for
his career). More likely, Wilson could see 5-7 targets and have
a chance to break one or two big plays, drawing him into the flex
conversation, especially in deeper leagues.
Last week was one to forget for Stevenson, receiving just 6 carries
(23 yards) in a game where he lost a fumble and the opposing Jets
took command of the game quickly. The 49ers may run away with
this one, especially being in a dire need of a win after a 1-2
start, but they don’t have the run defense the Jets have. Stevenson
should see more space against the 49ers that may be without defensive
tackle Javon Hargrove (tricep). San Francisco already allowed
116 total yards and 2 scores to Kyren Williams, last week, after
allowing 148 combined yards and 5 receptions to the tandem of
Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler the week before. Even in a decisive
Week 1 victory over the Jets, opposing Breece Hall saw 21 touches
and scored 17.8 fantasy points. Stevenson has seen 57 of the Patriots
86 running back touches thus far this year, is ranked No.21 in
points, and should be a solid RB2 play in Week 4.
Douglas and friends draw a 49ers coverage unite that has been
disappointing against wide receivers thus far. While surrendering
21.3 points to Justin Jefferson can be easily overlooked, it’s
tougher to look past season highs given up to veteran role players
Allen Lazard (23.9) and Tutu Atwell (11.3), as well as rookie
Jalen Nailor (12.9), as solid as he’s been.
The Patriots do not have a particularly talented group of NFL
receivers, nor do they have a quarterback the likes of Aaron Rodgers,
Matthew Stafford, or – dare I say – Sam Darnold. Still, veteran
journeyman Jacoby Brissett will likely find tight end Hunter Henry
smothered by the likes of Fred Warner and Talanoa Hufanga all
day, meaning he’ll have to push targets elsewhere. If he cedes
action to Drake Maye, expect the rookie to be even more inclined
to sling passes out to the wide receivers. Douglas, the only Patriots
receiver with 10-plus targets (he has 12), stands to be the most
likely benefactor. This doesn’t make Douglass a particularly exciting
option, but a possible play for deep leagues and owners in a bind.
You probably weren’t going to start Brissett this week,
but if you are in a superflex league, it’s worth digging
deeper to find someone else. Brissett is at risk of being pulled
at some point during the game if the 49ers get a big lead. Drake
Maye saw a little bit of action in Week 3, and he may be allowed
to get his toes wet if this game gets out of hand.
Hunter Henry has always been a good, well-rounded NFL tight end.
He’s had his share of seasons in the Top 12 at his position,
and so it’s hardly surprising that he’s currently
TE8 while playing for a Patriots team without a stand out wide
receiver, and with a veteran quarterback who is looking to protect
the ball. The 49ers have given up just 6 receptions for 39 yards
to tight ends this year and they have stellar talent at linebacker
and safety to take Henry out of the game. Expect the 49ers to
employ this strategy, as they try to get their defense right,
and push Henry into TE2 territory at least for this week.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Aiyuk may not have produced like a WR1 last week, but he was
finally used like one (10 targets). Expect the statement made
by Jauan Jennings last week to draw some of the attention away
from Aiyuk (including elite cornerback Christian Gonzalez’s coverage),
and for Aiyuk to be another week closer to mid-season form. He’s
not quite deserving of WR1 status yet, but he belongs as a WR2
against a Pats defense that seems to be missing Bill Belichick
(7th most points allowed to wide receivers this year).
Kittle is back at practice this week, and looks primed to play
against the Pats. He is essentially a no brainer, and is only
“demoted” to the Favorites section because of his
injury designation. It’s good to keep an eye on him this
week and make sure his hamstring is fine, but if all goes well,
he’s a sure TE1 in what’s a messy and confusing position
right now.
Purdy answered the bell last week in a rare test without a full
cast of elite weapons at his disposal. Of course, the tape of
Jauan Jennings might beg to differ and the Rams defense is very
beatable, but it was certainly an encouraging moment from Purdy.
This week, the SF QB draws the Patriots defense in a game where
the 49ers should have a considerable edge. If they get out to
a big lead early, will they keep throwing the ball? Limited passing
attempts, coupled with facing an opposing offense who is likely
only a threat if the 49ers turn it over may lead to a quiet day
from Purdy, putting him back on the QB1 / QB2 border.
Jennings’ performance was extremely impressive last week.
He repeatedly beat defenders, and even when he didn’t, he
reeled in catches, including making an incredible catch on an
underthrown ball that appeared like it would be an interception.
Jennings will not have the toughest of tasks in facing a much
more human Patriots defense than we’ve grown accustomed
to, but they are still far tougher than the Rams, and he will
not fly under the radar after last week’s performance. Additionally,
the return of Kittle and a possible blowout with limited pass
attempts mean that owners may wish to temper expectations for
Jennings this week. He’s screaming must start, but think
of him as a “must start” flex.
The Raiders have had few answers for running backs this year,
giving up the 3rd most points to the position. Coming off of giving
up the 9th most points to RB’s last year, that’s especially
encouraging for the Browns. Ford has a 5.0 rushing average and
10 receptions, but his best performance through three weeks was
a volume-based 15.9-point performance against the Cowboys. The
Cowboys have since been gutted by opposing rushing attacks, so
Ford’s 12-44-1 rushing line and 6-25-0 receiving line in
that game don’t necessarily stand out.
Still, Ford has 63% of his teams running back touches thus far,
and with Cleveland looking to right their ship this week, expect
a ground-heavy attack against the Raiders that provides Ford with
ample opportunity to step into RB2 territory.
Coming off a season where he had a whopping 17.4 yards per reception,
Amari Cooper has just 9.4 yards per reception in 2024. It might
not be so alarming if he had a high catch-rate, but his 41.4%
rate is well below his career average (61.3%). Deshaun Watson
has been given a lot of blame for this, but the pair connected
last year, and Cooper has appeared to be a step slower at 30 years
old. Las Vegas boasts a middling defense, so Cooper could build
on his performance last week, but the game script may not give
him the opportunities. Think of him as only a flex for Week 4.
Watson leads the league in sacks taken (16) and has hit on only
58% of his passes, while only throwing for 8.2 yards per completion.
At 4.8 yards per attempt and an adjusted net yards per attempt
of 3.2, something seemingly has to give, but when?
Njoku has never been a particular benefactor of Deshaun Watson’s
starts, even when healthy, and he only returned to practice Thursday
for the first time in weeks. Notably, his injured ankle was wrapped
in tape, which may be an indication that he is going to be used
as a decoy, or the tape itself may be an attempt to throw the
Raiders off the scent. It’s too risky a situation to consider
using Njoku this week. If you have him, watch-and-wait seems like
the right play.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Davante Adams continues to be a good high volume bet for the
Raiders, with 9 targets last week and an average of 9 targets
per game for the season. It’s probably better for him if
Minshew remains in at quarterback, but regardless, Adams is a
good bet as a volume-based WR2 against a Cleveland defense that
has under-performed thus far, but should be respected.
Going forward, owners who consider using Minshew (primarily in
superflex leagues) will have to weigh the risk of him being pulled
for Aidan O’Connell, particularly in difficult matchups.
The Browns, despite a poor start, pose a difficult matchup, both
for the prospects of Minshew producing, and for the possibility
he gets removed from the game. I’d pass in deep and superflex
leagues.
Wide receiver Jakobi Meyers came through for fantasy owners who
plugged him in last week. Meyers should continue to be a matchup-based
flex option for the remainder of the year, and one - like Adams
– isn’t affected by quarterback controversies. But
this is a tougher match up for Meyers, and he’s probably
more of a WR4 than a flex option.
Patrick Mahomes sits as the QB14 in fantasy scoring, after a
relatively down No.8 finish last season. It’s no coincidence
that this fall for Mahomes coincides with a depletion of his passing
weapons – last season being short at receiver behind rookie
Rashee Rice, and this season losing off season addition Marquise
Brown and witnessing what appears to be the further aging of Kelce.
Still, rookie Xavier Worthy should provide moments of assistance
that Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling
could not last year, and Rice has continued his growth in year
2. So, there is good reason to believe that Mahomes shouldn’t
see a further fall from last season’s No.8 finish, and perhaps
a better finish is in store if his connection with Worthy grows
over the course of the year.
This week does not present an easy outing for Mahomes, as Jim
Harbaugh has seemingly brought Michigan Universities defensive
mojo to the NFL. The Chargers have frustrated opposing quarterbacks,
allowing the 6th fewest points to the position. Joey Bosa (hip)
possibly missing the week may be a reprieve for Mahomes, but that
remains to be seen and while Mahomes does remain a QB1 in fantasy,
he is hardly an exciting one at the moment.
Running back Carson Steele saw an encouraging 17 carries in his
first game taking over for injured Isiah Pacheco, and those owners
who grabbed him off of waivers had to be happy with the volume.
But the Chargers defense have allowed the 10th fewest points allowed
running backs and Kareem Hunt was bumped from the practice squad
to the active roster, creating a whole new set of questions about
how reliable a Steele play is this week.
Steele has the size and physical gifts to be productive on the
ground and at the goal line, so it’s more a question as
to what Kareem Hunt has left in the tank, and whether Hunt is
just there as veteran depth or for something more. For the moment,
Steele is reasonably best thought of as a deep flex option, awaiting
how this situation pans out.
Meanwhile, the 69 yards Travis Kelce has produced this year are
fewer than he has ever produced in three consecutive games over
the course of his entire career. This may be a writing-on-the-wall
moment for the aging, seemingly distracted tight end. He’s averaging
just 1.25 yards of target separation and already has 2 drops,
according to playerprofiler.com, which only add to the concern
that his days as a Top 12 - let alone Top 3 or number 1 - tight
end may over. Unless you are in a rare situation, the lack of
depth at tight end means you can’t even think about sitting him,
but it may be time to start thinking about making a trade or developing
a contingency plan if Kelce has another quiet outing.
Hunt has been elevated to the active roster but how much this
is good news for Hunt owners, and how much this is bad news for
Steele and Perine owners, remains to be seen. Right now, Steele
performed well enough in putting up 72 yards on 17 carries that
Hunt shouldn’t be banked on this week. Perine (9 touches)
probably wasn’t a good play anyway, having taken a back
seat to Steele. He should take a seat this week, too.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
J.K. Dobbins has seemingly had too good of a start to belong
“on the fence”. Even the Chiefs, who have been fairly
tough on running backs dating back to last season (7th most difficult
last year, 4th most difficult this year) arguably shouldn’t
be enough to dampen Dobbin’s parade. Yet, last week against
a tough Pittsburgh defense, when the Chargers offensive line suffered
injury after injury, Dobbins found no room to run, producing just
44 yards on the ground and 10 in the receiving game.
The bad news for Dobbins is that rookie 1st round OT Joe Alt
(knee) and young start OG Rashawn Slater (pectoral) are both out
of practice with injuries as of Thursday. If the Chargers host
the Chiefs significantly down on the offensive line, it’s going
to be hard for Dobbins to get going and he will be more of a flex
than a RB2.
Update: Justin
Herbert is expected to play.
Fade: QB Justin Herbert (ankle), Chargers Wide Receivers
With injury woes on the offensive line and the lack of a clear
front-line receivers, it’s hard to envision Justin Herbert as
more than a mid-QB2, this week. The Chiefs have given up the 8th
most points to opposing QBs, but they’ve faced the likes of Lamar
Jackson, Joe Burrow and Kirk Cousins, all of whom are in better
situations than Herbert is right now.
While Herbert’s receiving corps has lacked stand out production,
it’s encouraging to see second year receiver and former
1st round pick Quentin Johnston reaching the end zone three times
over the seasons’ first three weeks. But neither Johnston’s
72% snap share nor his 13 targets are strong indications of this
being sustainable, especially considering that Josh Palmer (elbow)
may return this week after practicing on a limited basis. Palmer
had an 81% snap rate in his only healthy game, but how close to
100 percent healthy he’ll be and how Johnston’s performance
in his absence affects their respective roles is a huge question.
Rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey, meanwhile, has seen more
consistent target involvement through three weeks, with 17 total
targets and a score, but has only amassed 10 receptions for 109
yards. He is worth a hold, but it’s a muddled situation
where, even with plenty of targets available, no one is standing
out and demanding even Flex attention.
It’d be disingenuous to suggest Shakir is a No. 1 receiver, but
he at least looks like the lead target for the Bills at this time
-- a role many believed would go to Kincaid or Keon Coleman. The
Boise State product has seen his production tick up each week
in both receptions and yards with Monday’s 6-72-1 effort being
his best to date. Despite a reputation as a stout defense, the
Ravens are currently dead last in pass defense, having allowed
291.7 yards per game. With Allen looking healthy after a Week
1 injury to his non-throwing hand, Shakir can be played as a WR3
this weekend.
After a solid debut (4-51-0), Coleman has been targeted just
twice in the last two games, though that does include a 24-yard
touchdown catch versus the Jaguars. While the rookie has seen
fewer opportunities than the likes of Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins,
and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, it’s Coleman that has the greater
upside. He has physical tools the others can’t match and is a
building block for Buffalo’s future. Perhaps this is the week
he gets more involved. As noted, Baltimore has struggled in pass
defense thus far, giving up 108 more yards than anyone else in
the NFL. Coleman could be a lottery-ticket type play from your
flex spot.
Fade: N/A
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
A regular resident of the “no brainers” section for years, Andrews
is one of the many highly touted fantasy tight ends to get off
to a surprisingly slow start. The former All-Pro has been targeted
just eight times through three games and is coming off a game
in Dallas where he went without a catch. Granted, Jackson attempted
just 15 passes, but why should we think this week will be dramatically
different? The Bills are undefeated, and they lead the NFL in
points (37.3 per game) and point differential. It’s not a stretch
to imagine the Ravens again featuring their rushing attack to
control the clock and keep Allen off the field. Andrews’ history
is such that he can’t be completely discounted, and it's still
too early to cut him, but starting him is a risk.
Likely’s monster effort in Week 1 -- a 9-111-1 performance
in Kansas City -- feels like it was months ago. In two games since,
the third-year pro has faded into the background with a combined
three catches for 30 yards. All the same points about the Ravens’
potential game plan that were noted for Andrews apply to Likely
as well. He just hasn’t earned the same benefit of the doubt,
making him (dare we say) unlikely to deliver fantasy value in
Week 4.
Tony Pollard's Week 3 performance was disappointing, but it's
important not to give up on him just yet. While the Titans' offense
struggled against the Packers, leading to fewer rushing opportunities,
the underlying numbers still paint a favorable picture. Pollard
has dominated the backfield, playing nearly 64% of the Titans'
offensive snaps and significantly outproducing Tyjae Spears on
the ground. His involvement in the passing game, with almost a
15% target share, adds to his value, especially in PPR formats.
Looking ahead, Pollard has a good chance to rebound in Week 4
against a struggling Dolphins team. The game script should allow
Tennessee to stay competitive or even lead, which would play into
Pollard's strength as the focal point of the Titans' run-heavy
offense. With his consistent usage, Pollard remains a strong RB1/2
option in fantasy, especially given the Titans' commitment to
feeding him touches.
Hopkins reminded fantasy managers that he still has some gas
left in the tank with a solid Week 3 performance against the Packers,
where he hauled in six receptions for 73 yards and a touchdown.
While the Titans were forced into a pass-heavy game script due
to falling behind early, Hopkins' involvement is encouraging,
especially for those in need of wide receiver help.
This week’s matchup against the Dolphins presents an intriguing
opportunity. Miami has had trouble containing bigger-bodied receivers,
allowing touchdowns to DK Metcalf and Brian Thomas. While Hopkins
may not possess the same athleticism as those players at this
stage in his career, his size, physicality, and red-zone prowess
could allow him to capitalize on similar opportunities. He's a
solid WR3/Flex option with some upside this week.
Ridley's Week 3 performance against the Packers was a major letdown
for fantasy managers, especially after a promising start to the
season. After being targeted 13 times over the first two weeks
and racking up 127 yards and a touchdown, Ridley saw just three
targets in Week 3, catching only one pass for nine yards. With
Tennessee passing a season-high 34 times, Ridley’s minimal
involvement—sixth on the team in targets—raises concerns,
especially with DeAndre Hopkins re-establishing himself as the
top option.
Heading into Week 4, Ridley’s outlook is shaky. The Dolphins
have a solid defense, ranking in the top 10 against opposing wide
receivers, and the target share shift in Tennessee's offense could
make this a tough bounce-back week for Ridley. Fantasy managers
may want to temper expectations, as this isn’t shaping up
to be an easy matchup, and his role is more uncertain now than
it was a week ago.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
The Dolphins' offense has taken a significant hit without Tua
Tagovailoa, and it was clear in Week 3 when Skylar Thompson and
Tim Boyle struggled to get anything going through the air. Tyreek
Hill, who typically dominates, was limited to just 40 yards on
three catches, despite leading the team in receiving yards. Without
Tua, Hill's fantasy value takes a hit, and while he's difficult
to bench due to his elite talent, those in shallow leagues with
great WR depth might consider giving him a break this week. Whoever
starts at QB—whether it’s Thompson, Boyle, or Huntley—will likely
limit Hill’s ceiling, making it a tough week for the "Cheetah."
De'Von Achane, meanwhile, had a rough Week 3 as well, rushing
for just 30 yards on 11 carries. While he salvaged some PPR value
with 28 receiving yards on three catches, the Dolphins’ offensive
struggles pose a problem for his fantasy outlook, especially with
Raheem Mostert potentially returning to further split the backfield
workload. Achane is a dynamic playmaker who can still produce
on limited touches, but the uncertainty at QB and the possibility
of Mostert cutting into his snaps make him a risky play. Managers
should proceed cautiously with both Hill and Achane until Tua
returns and the offense finds its rhythm again.
Waddle's start to the 2024 season has been nothing short of disappointing,
especially when compared to his previous performances. With only
14 targets over the first three games, his volume is alarmingly
low for a player of his caliber. While his average of 13.5 yards
per reception is decent, it doesn’t translate into substantial
fantasy value without consistent opportunities.
The lack of touchdowns, combined with the Dolphins’ ongoing
quarterback struggles, makes Waddle a risky play. Given the current
state of the offense, which is likely to be involved in another
low-scoring matchup against the Patriots, it might be best for
fantasy managers to keep him on the bench for now. Waddle has
the potential to bounce back, but until the quarterback situation
stabilizes and he sees more consistent targets, he may not be
able to provide the fantasy production expected from him.
It’s been feast or famine for Smith-Njigba over the first
three games of 2024, catching five balls combined in Weeks 1 and
3 but posting a 12-117-0 line in between. The Lions haven’t
been bad against the pass this season, ranking 19th at 216.7 yards
per game, but that’s the way to attack them as their run
defense is top notch. Teams have had the most success with receivers
attacking from the slot, which is where JSN does much of his work.
While the former first-round pick hasn’t had the type of
ascension some predicted thus far, his Week 2 showing demonstrates
his upside. As your No. 3 wideout this Monday, Smith-Njigba could
pay dividends.
Despite Seattle’s perfect record, Smith has been a bit uneven.
He’s third in passing yards (787) but has just three touchdown
passes to go with a trio of interceptions. His Week 1 touchdown
scamper notwithstanding, the veteran doesn’t run much, so he needs
to reach the end zone through the air to deliver for fantasy owners.
As noted, the Lions are better against the run than the pass,
so Smith figures to be central to Seattle’s plan of attack. A
year ago, Smith dropped 328 yards and 2 TDs in an overtime win
over Detroit, so we know he can get it done. He’d be a risk/reward
choice for your starting QB.
Walker (oblique) hasn’t played since Week 1 when he suffered
an oblique injury. There’s optimism that he’ll return
this Monday. In his absence, Charbonnet has compiled 176 total
yards and three touchdowns. When both were healthy, Walker logged
22 touches to 10 for Charbonnet. Will that be the split if Walker
returns on Monday? It’s hard to say, but the Lions are a
tough team to run on regardless. Only three clubs have given up
fewer rushing yards on the season than Detroit, which is allowing
76.7 yards per game and 3.6 per carry. Walker would be worth reinserting
in your lineup if he’s healthy, but Charbonnet is a little
iffy in that scenario.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Heading into the season, the belief was that Gibbs would become
more of the lead back with Montgomery sprinkled in. Through three
games, the split isn’t far off from what we saw in 2023
with Montgomery posting 59 touches to 51 for Gibbs. The veteran
has 285 yards and 3 TDs, putting him close to no-brainer status.
When these two teams locked up last season, Montgomery accounted
for 74 yards and a touchdown. He should be heavily involved once
again as the Seahawks’ strength defensively has been versus
the pass. You can use the veteran as a quality RB3 with RB2 upside.
While he hasn’t been bad in the early going, Goff hasn’t
played up to last year’s standard, either. The veteran has
more INTs (4) than touchdown passes (3), and more than half of
his 106 passes came in Week 2 when the Lions fell to Tampa Bay.
On paper, this matchup looks like a hard pass. Seattle has allowed
an NFL-low 132.3 yards per game with 1 TD pass and 2 INTs. The
asterisk to that is Seattle’s competition, having faced
Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, and Skylar Thompson/Tim Boyle. Goff is
easily a notch or three above all of them. In last year’s
matchup, Goff passed for 323 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 INT -- it was
his only game all season with 300-plus yards and more than 2 touchdowns.
Still, he feels like a shaky option this Monday.
