Brock Purdy is coming off of a sloppy performance where he was
picked off twice and completed just 54% of his passes, but he’ll
get a good shot at redemption this week against the Seahawks,
who have allowed top 12 performances to Jared Goff and Daniel
Jones in each of the last two weeks. Seattle is facing a slew
of injuries on defense this week making Purdy a very reasonably
a QB1.
The Seahawks will be without two of their key pieces in the secondary
(Riq Woolen and Byron Murphy), and possibly talented safety Julian
Love, as well. If Love is inactive, the Seahawks will be missing
his ability to get down in the box and help curtail jet sweeps,
which could be great news for Deebo Samuel. On the whole, this
is an ideal situation for both Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk; the latter
appeared to regain his form last week (8-147-0).
For Jauan Jennings, who is still No.1 on the 49ers in receiving
yards coming into Week 6, the biggest question is whether there
are enough targets to go around. After his massive Week 3 performance,
he’s seen just 10 targets in the last two weeks. With 17.1
yards per catch and a great matchup, Jennings is still worth consideration
as a flex for owners needing a shot in the arm, as he can deliver
on just several targets, demonstrated by his 5-64-0 performance
on 5 targets in Week 1, or his 3-88-0 performance on 6 targets
in Week 5. Jennings is a bit risky due to the fact that he’s
seen not seen more than 6 targets in any game that both Aiyuk
and Samuel have been on the field, but the big play potential
and several teams on bye week put him in the flex mix.
Isaac Guerendo matched his season high with a 14% snap rate in
Week 5, and has seen his three highest snap totals in the last
three weeks, but those totals are still a far cry from what fantasy
owners would need to see to start Guerendo in all but the deepest
fantasy league. On the plus side, Seattle’s run defense that has
surrendered double-digit points to multiple running backs in the
same week twice this year, and just allowed Giants rookie Tyrone
Tracy Jr. to gut them for 129 yards in his first career start.
Guerendo remains a hold as a handcuff for Mason - at least until
when and if McCaffrey returns.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Geno has in no small part volumed his way into his position’s
No.5 spot in fantasy points and No.8 spot in fantasy points per
game. That theme should continue this week, and if he can improve
on his 5-4 touchdown-to-interception rate against the 49ers, he
could be in for a big week. The Niners are struggling against
the legs of opposing quarterbacks who are mobile (5-32-0 against
Sam Darnold and 7-83-1 against Kyler Murray). Geno has piled up
110 rushing yards over the last two weeks.
The 49ers got some bad news on Wednesday, when they learned that
star safety Talanoa Hufanga would be placed on IR with a wrist
injury. Hufanga has only played in two games this year and missing
Dre Greenlaw and losing Javon Hargrave in the pass rush has turned
the San Francisco defense into a far more human one than anticipated.
The loss of Hufanga could loom large and be very favorable for
the Seahawks receiving group of Metcalf, Lockett and Smith-Njigba,
as he allowed just a 60-passer rating in coverage last season.
Metcalf’s string of 100-plus receiving performances was
snapped against the Giants last week, but he’s still clearly
a must start, and the only thing keeping him from being a “no
brainer” is that the 49ers star corner – Charvarius
Ward – will surely be giving him attention this week.
Lockett, meanwhile, has yet to reach the end zone but has generally
remained involved, having at least 6 targets and 4 receptions
in four of the Seahawks five games. The days are gone of him being
a WR2, but there are still plenty of targets to go around on a
team whose QB leads the league in attempts, and the experienced
and savvy Lockett should benefit as much as anyone from the 49ers’
injuries.
Meanwhile, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 40 targets, leaving him just
3 behind Metcalf for the team lead. He has mainly carried the
responsibility of being a key underneath target (7.0 yd average
depth of target), but with Metcalf drawing Ward and the 49ers
being short at safety, do not be surprised if we see the Seahawks
draw up a couple of shots for Smith-Njigba downfield. JSN makes
for a high-ceiling Flex with a solid floor in a matchup where
the Seahawks should be throwing as much as ever, while Lockett
should present as a high-floor Flex option. Metcalf can be thought
of as a WR2, this week against Ward.
Walker is 17th in fantasy points per game at the running back
position. He’s been more involved in the passing game thus
far, with 5.3 targets and 4.0 receptions per game. That’s
good news in a game where Seattle may be playing from behind against
the 49ers’ offense for much of the day. Yhe 49ers have been
middling against opposing running backs, but they’ve given
up over 9 yards per catch to the position thus far. Expect Walker
to maintain RB2 status for Week 6.
With just 2 rushes in each of the last two games and an average
of 6 total touches since Walker returned from injury, it seems
safe to fade Charbonnet to the back of your bench for the time
being.
Thomas is as close to a “no brainer” as you’ll find in Jacksonville.
The rookie has been a big play threat, ably replacing Calvin Ridley,
last year’s WR1, while also outperforming holdover Christian Kirk.
Through five games, Thomas ranks sixth in the NFL in receiving
yardage (397), and he’s coming off his best performance to date,
racking up five catches for 122 yards and a touchdown in a win
over Indianapolis. His consistency has also been impressive, topping
90 total yards and/or scoring a touchdown in all but one game.
Chicago has a tough pass defense to be sure, but Thomas absolutely
belongs in your lineup as a low-end WR2 or strong WR3.
The status of the Jaguars backfield is a bit of a mystery. Etienne
opened the year as the clear No. 1 back. He’s never logged
more than 16 touches in a game, however, and is now dealing with
a shoulder issue that limited him to a dozen opportunities last
week. Overall, Etienne is averaging 64 total yards per game and
has two TDs, though none since Week 2. Bigsby, meanwhile, has
shined in limited burn. He opened the year with 73 yards on 12
carries, and over the last two weeks he’s turned 21 combined
touches into 219 yards and a pair of tuds. Chicago has had their
issues with the run game this year, allowing 120.8 yards per game
on the ground (18th). The distribution of snaps makes it hard
to rely on either player as more than a flex or dicey RB3, however,
even though each one holds decent upside.
Lawrence had a big game in Week 5: 371 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT. The
last time he had a day in which he topped 300 yards in the air
and tossed two touchdowns, though, was all the way back in December
of 2022 -- a span of 24 games. The lesson here is don’t
get too excited. The former No. 1 pick only topped 200 yards once
in September, and the Bears have allowed the sixth-fewest passing
yards this year (174 per game) while posting a 2:6 TD-to-INT ratio.
Bench Lawrence in London.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
After scuffling for most of September, Williams put together
his best game as a pro last Sunday, throwing for 304 yards and
2 TDs while adding 34 yards on the ground. Beyond the box score,
the rookie simply looked more comfortable. He took just one sack,
showed good pocket awareness and elusiveness when necessary, and
he didn’t turn the ball over. It’s fair to point out
that performance came against the Panthers, which sit dead last
in scoring defense this season. Statistically, however, Jacksonville
is worse, at least when it comes to stopping the pass as they’ve
allowed an NFL-high 287.8 yards per game to go with 10 TDs and
zero interceptions. Unless your other QB is an absolute stud,
Williams carries enough upside to warrant a spot in your starting
lineup.
For whatever strides the passing attack has made this season,
the combination of Odunze and Allen have yet to do much of anything
when both are healthy -- the rookie posted a 6-112-1 effort in
Week 3, but Allen was inactive with a heel injury. In three games
together, Allen is averaging 3.3 receptions and 27 yards, while
Odunze checks in with 2.3 catches and 20.3 yards. Right now, the
passing game flows through Moore, Cole Kmet, and Swift. Until
Odunze and Allen put together a decent game or two, you can’t
trust either one in your lineup.
Another week is in the books and Baker Mayfield has delivered
yet another top-10 fantasy performance. He’s now finished
as a top-10 QB four times this season, highlighted by three games
with at least 23 fantasy points.
Mayfield’s success has been driven by two key factors.
First, and most obvious, has been his play. He has a 72-percent
completion percentage (3rd among QBs) while averaging 7.61 yards
per attempt (14th). What’s arguably most impressive is that
he ranks 4th in fantasy points per dropback. Mayfield’s
productivity and efficiency have exceeded all expectations.
Tampa Bay’s offensive philosophy has also lifted Mayfield’s
fantasy value. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen has correctly identified
that Tampa Bay’s path to offensive success is through Mayfield’s
arm and their talented receivers. The Buccaneers rank 2nd in pass
rate over expectation and 10th in overall pass rate. This mentality
will allow Mayfield to continue to produce at a high level.
As Bucky Irving continues to carve out a role in this backfield,
it becomes harder and harder to start either Irving or Rachaad
White in fantasy. At this point, both belong on the bench.
Irving began to take on a truly meaningful role two weeks ago.
In these two games, the backfield has been nearly a 50-50 split.
Irving has played 41 percent of snaps and seen 23 opportunities
while White has played 62 percent of snaps and seen 26 opportunities.
In these roles, neither is averaging over 10.0 FPts/G.
Unless one back clearly surpasses the other or one begins to
dominate the high-value touches (targets and goal line work),
it’s difficult to start either in fantasy. Against a Saints
defense that isn’t exactly a favorable matchup (12th in
fantasy points allowed to RBs), both belong on the bench.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Derek Carr is expected to miss multiple weeks and rookie Spencer
Rattler is expected to take his place at quarterback in Week 6.
It’s hard to feel comfortable starting any pass catcher, regardless
of talent, when the quarterback is a fifth-round rookie making
their NFL debut.
Fantasy managers were already beginning to feel uneasy with Chris
Olave without the injury to Carr. He has been targeted at a lower
rate than Rashid Shaheed on the season and has two games with
fewer than five PPR points and just one with more than 17 points.
Could the target distribution shift with Rattler under center?
Yes. Does this mean Olave will start producing like the high-end
WR2 you drafted him to be? Not at all. Start him with caution
in Week 6.
The concern with Shaheed is whether he’ll be able to connect
with Rattler on the deep targets that have allowed him to reach
his weekly ceiling. Shaheed ranks 3rd in the NFL in receiving
yards on targets at least 30 yards downfield. Carr’s willingness
to simply chuck it in Shaheed’s direction played a big role
in Shaheed’s ability to produce. If the connection isn’t
there with Rattler, a good portion of Shaheed’s fantasy
appeal is gone. This is a situation where managers would ideally
leave Shaheed on the bench and assess the situation this week.
The first non-quarterback taken in this year’s draft, Harrison
has flashed his potential, most notably in a 4-130-2 performance
against the Rams in Week 2. In his other four games, however,
the rookie is averaging 3.3 receptions, 37 yards, and 0.5 TDs
per game, so despite the name recognition he’s not a no brainer
at this stage. That said, there should be some opportunities this
Sunday. Although the Packers have forced a lot of turnovers this
year, they’ve given up some yardage. They currently rank 23rd
in pass defense, allowing 231.6 yards per game to go with nine
TD passes. Green Bay’s fortunes would be improved if Jaire Alexander
(groin) returns from a two-game absence, but even that shouldn’t
be enough to dissuade you from getting Harrison in your lineup.
While Harrison gets the headlines, Wilson isn’t far off the pace.
He leads the team in receptions (19) and is second in yards (216).
While he doesn’t get a ton of work from the slot, that’s a spot
that has given the Packers trouble, so the Cardinals could look
to line him up there to get some isolated looks. On the flip side,
you could also see Greg Dortch get those slot opportunities, which
would undercut Wilson’s upside. The consistency has been lacking
as well this year -- Wilson has three games with less than 40
yards receiving -- so you’d be taking a gamble playing him from
your flex spot.
Fade: N/A
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
In two games since returning from a knee injury, we’ve seen flashes
of the player that landed a massive extension alongside bouts
of rustiness and poor decision making. Add it up, and Love is
averaging 307 yards passing, 3 TDs, and 2 INTs per game over the
last two weeks. Despite lesser production and an inexplicable
pick-six in Week 5, Love looked better physically, showing more
mobility and trust in the stability of his injured knee. Arizona
is a mid-pack pass defense, but this designation is more about
the fifth-year pro rounding back into form and possibly getting
the returns of Christian Watson (ankle) and Romeo Doubs (suspended),
both of whom were out last Sunday. You should consider Love a
top-10 play this week.
Viewed by some as a possible breakout candidate entering the season,
Wicks has shown exactly why while also absolutely falling short
of delivering. In terms of getting open, the metrics indicate
that few in the NFL do it any better, which is shocking for a
second-year wideout that came into the league as a fifth-round
pick. His hands have betrayed him, however, with only Amari Cooper
being credited with more drops in 2024 -- on almost twice as many
catchable balls. His role could also fluctuate depending on whether
Doubs and/or Watson are active this Sunday. Wicks is a complete
lottery ticket, but that ceiling is higher than many.
Doubs was suspended last week for conduct detrimental to the
team after reportedly skipping practice and meetings over unhappiness
with his role. He’s been reinstated and is back with the
club, but how does that play out on Sunday? Does the team go out
of its way to get Doubs more involved? Do they go the other way
and limit his snaps for his behavior? We won’t know until
it’s happening, and by then it’ll be too late. Already
a fringe option, Doubs should be benched until we get some clarity.
Jonathan Taylor (ankle) has yet to appear on the practice field
this week, putting Trey Sermon in position to make a second consecutive
start at running back for the Colts.
Sermon proved last week that he can be a volume-based RB2 option
in fantasy. He played 58 percent of snaps and was responsible
for 16 of the 24 backfield opportunities, turning those opportunities
into 18.3 PPR points. Most importantly, Sermon handled every single
goal line carry, which he converted into a touchdown.
Sermon has a very similar outlook in Week 6. He’s not going
to be an explosive player who will be highly efficient with his
touches. He’s merely a compiler who can be fantasy-relevant
thanks to holding a starter’s workload.
Anthony Richardson (oblique) is set to make his return to the
field after logging a full practice on Thursday. While he’s
been on the field, it’s been an up-and-down season for Richardson.
He scored 27.1 fantasy points in his debut but followed it up
with two straight games of less than 13 fantasy points. He’ll
need to find his rhythm as a passer (50.9-percent completion percentage)
in order to be a reliable fantasy option.
Since returning from injury in Week 3, Josh Downs has been on
the trajectory of a second-year breakout wide receiver. He’s
been targeted on 36 percent of his routes and is the team leader
in targets and receptions since he returned. The only issue is
that he has not practiced this week due to a toe injury. If he’s
able to suit up, he’ll be on the field without Michael Pittman
Jr. and will be in line for a monster target share. He’s
a must-start if he’s able to play, even with Richardson’s
struggles as a passer.
Alec Pierce is on an absolute heater in terms of being able to
convert on his deep targets. He has a 27-yard aDOT but somehow
has a 72-percent catch rate. It shouldn’t come as a shock
that NFL Next Gen Stats has Pierce at a 19-percent catch rate
over expectation. He is catching his deep targets at an unsustainable
rate and it should stabilize soon. Don’t expect him to catch
a 40-yard bomb every week.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Tony Pollard has been the RB18 in Fpts/G this season and managers
can expect RB2 production from him in Week 6. This has quickly
become Pollard’s backfield and he’s shown no signs
of losing his grip. Pollard has played 64 percent of snaps while
holding a 66-percent opportunity share. He now gets an Indianapolis
defense that surrendered the 9th-most points to RBs and has allowed
three 100-yard rushers this year. Look for Pollard to have a nice
day this week.
The Colts struggle to contain opposing running backs. Somehow,
they have been even worse at keeping perimeter receivers in check.
They have given up at least 110 receiving yards to Nico Collins,
George Pickens, Brian Thomas Jr., and Rome Odunze. Calvin Ridley
has been off to a slow start this year, but head coach Brian Callahan
has said they’ll be working to get him the ball at a higher rate
in the coming weeks. Ridley has a prime opportunity to get his
season back on track against an abysmal Indianapolis secondary.
At this point in time, DeAndre Hopkins simply isn’t playing
enough. He has not yet hit a 50-percent snap share or 60-percent
route participation in a single game. This is likely due to the
fact that Hopkins suffered a significant knee injury late in the
preseason. There could be a change in his usage following Tennessee’s
bye, but it’s hard to rely on Hopkins until there’s
evidence of an increased role.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
No Brainers: None
Favorites: None
This game features an offense you just can’t trust for
fantasy production. Yes, the Eagles are probably the poorest defense
the Browns have faced so far this season, but this is a team in
need of a quarterback change that would have already happened
if not for the incredible (incredibly stupid) investment made
in the man who remains under center. Proceed with full caution.
Managers with Amari Cooper on their roster have been largely
disappointed in his performances this season outside of a breakout
in Week 3 in which he scored 2 TDs and had 86 yards receiving.
Cooper is averaging over 9 targets a game and has never had less
than 8 in a game so far, so the opportunity for another big game
is there against an Eagles defense ranking 30th in fantasy points
surrendered to wide receivers. I am leaning towards Cooper being
a solid start, but the overall state of this offense keeps me
unenthusiastic.
Watson looks like a quarterback whose confidence is shot. He’s
only completing 60.2% of his passes and hasn’t reached 200 yards
passing in a game this season. That’s not good. Perhaps if he
was doing damage on the ground a la Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson,
or Jalen Hurts, he would be worth starting. But he isn’t. He averages
about 25 yards a week on the ground. Keep him deep on your bench.
As for Ford, the Cleveland backfield is a mess and the team will
be playing from behind. Ford has been targeted 6+ times in the
passing game this season, but in both instances, he averaged only
4 yards per reception. He’s a desperation flex play only.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Smith has cleared concussion protocol and thus returns to the
lineup for the first time since Week 3. In each of his first three
games this season, Smith went over 75 yards receiving and was
targeted nearly 10 times on average. Surprisingly, the Browns
are below average this season (21st) in points given up to opposing
wide-outs. Look for a triumphant return to the field for Smith
with at least one long reception and a TD catch or at least a
couple of end zone targets.
With 7 turnovers already committed this season, Jalen Hurts will
be asked to play mistake-free as opposed to playing full throttle
because mistake-free is all it will take to beat the Browns. I
would expect a heavy dose of the run game as a result and while
that still involves Hurts, I think that will be dialed back to
avoid risk. As such, I do like Hurts to remain a fantasy starter,
but temper expectations.
Goedert has been thriving with Hurts having few other options
to throw to downfield. With A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith back,
temper expectations surrounding Goedert as well. We’re not
going to fade the No.1 scoring TE in the league average-wise this
year, just understand the circumstances that led to him being
there.
I highly doubt anyone is starting Dotson at this point, but it
should be pointed out that he couldn’t even carve out a
niche with both top receivers out of action. Keep him benched.
Dell has been disappointing to say the least averaging only 5
targets per game and less than 35 receiving yards. He has dealt
with some nagging injuries to be sure, but even more than that,
he has been in the long shadow of Stefon Diggs and the longer
shadow of budding superstar, Nico Collins. Collins (hamstring)
is now out for at least four weeks and Dell should be the primary
beneficiary. He profiles as a WR2 this week and likely every week
moving forward until Collins returns to action.
Just as Dell benefits, fantasy-wise, from Collins being out,
Stroud takes a hit. Consider that 41% of Stroud’s passing yards
to date were throws to Collins and it becomes practical to project
lesser numbers moving forward. In addition, this will not be a
shoot-out game by any means and that combination makes Stroud
a low-end, borderline fantasy starter this week at best. The Patriots
have allowed just 4 passing TDs so far this season.
Update: Joe
Mixon is expected to play.
Fade: All Houston RBs
It’s not that I don’t think Houston will run the ball often against
the Patriots, or even effectively. They should jump out to a lead
in this game and then milk some clock in the second half as they
are able. The status of Houston’s running back room is the issue.
If Joe Mixon
ends up playing, he could resume dominant duties, but early signs
point to him not playing and a committee of Cam
Akers, Dare
Ogunbowale, and possibly Dameon
Pierce taking shape. That’s a mess for fantasy purposes and
its best to simply stay from it until Mixon is back at full strength.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
No Brainers: None
Favorites: None
With Drake Maye starting at QB this week for the first time,
growing pains should be expected with the Patriots offense. Plus,
no WR has emerged as fantasy relevant, casting further doubt on
the state of this offense.
Rhamonde Stevenson is having trouble holding on to the ball,
but he is averaging over 4.6 yards per carry in a predictable
offense, so he remains a solid flex option for now if not a RB2.
Antonio Gibson, meanwhile, is averaging 5.9 yards a carry and
is becoming hard to leave off the field. On a week in which four
teams are out on bye, you could do worse than giving Gibson a
shot in the flex spot in your lineup. Houston is a top-10 defense
against the run, but New England will not throw Maye to the wolves
in his first game which means a steady diet of both Stevenson
and Gibson.
If you stashed Kendrick Bourne on your roster or injured reserve
this season thinking he might return and assume some sort of lead
role in New England’s passing game, you were no doubt disappointed
by returns in Week 5. No WR in New England’s offense is
worth a start right now and one could argue none is worth a roster
spot either.
As for Henry, he’s been targeted more than 4 times in a
game this season just once. Yes, rookie QBs sometimes lean on
their tight ends, but with Houston being top-3 in fewest amount
of fantasy points allowed to the position, I would look elsewhere
for a starting option.
Despite four straight 1,000-yard seasons on his resume, McLaurin
had fantasy owners around the globe nervous after he opened 2024
with 39 yards on eight receptions in his first two games. Things
have changed dramatically. In three weeks since, McLaurin has
caught 15 passes for 264 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He’s
now on pace for 78 receptions and 1,030 yards, which is very on
brand for the sixth-year wideout. He has a strong matchup on tap
for Week 6 as the Ravens currently rank 31st in pass defense,
allowing 280.2 yards per game -- they were even worse a week ago
when the Bengals lit them up for 392 yards and 5 TDs. Between
a plus matchup and an upward trend in his production, McLaurin
deserves WR2 consideration.
With Robinson battling a knee injury last week, Washington’s
lead back only logged seven touches, gaining 18 yards and a pair
of touchdowns in a blowout over Cleveland. Ekeler saw a similar
load, turning eight touches into 97 yards. Both players are likely
to see more work in Week 6 against the Ravens. The question is
how effective they’ll be given Baltimore leads the NFL in
run defense, allowing just 60.4 yards per game. This is strength
on strength with the Commanders being the No. 2 rushing offense
thanks in large to the combo of Daniels and Robinson. Ekeler could
be more involved in the pass game, giving him some RB3 or flex
potential, though clearly there’s some downside.
Fade: N/A
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
With the tight end position doing basically nothing in Weeks 3
and 4, Andrews (4-55-0) and Likely (3-13-2) both reemerged during
last Sunday’s shootout with the Bengals. They even brought along
No. 3 TE Charlie Kolar (3-64-1) for good measure. Despite playing
better in recent weeks, there are a lot of question marks surrounding
the Commanders’ defense, which was the NFL’s worst last year.
In terms of pass defense, they’ve given up an NFL-high 11 touchdown
passes without a single interception. There is an opportunity
to exploit Washington here. Who will get those opportunities feels
very murky, however, as the three tight ends split 12 targets
a week ago with Andrews leading the way with five. You could make
a case for slotting Andrews or even Likely into your lineup, though
the risk would be substantial. The safer play is to keep them
both on the sidelines, if possible.
J.K. Dobbins came raging out of the gate with 6.1 yards per carry
this season and he’s been the one potent weapon in an otherwise
tame Chargers offense.
The last two weeks have seen Dobbins neutered (just 106 total
yards and a 2.6 rushing average), in no small part due to key
injuries on the offensive line. Offensive guard Rashawn Slater
and rookie 1st round offensive tackle Joe Alt returned to practice
this week, with the pair appearing as limited and full participants
on Thursday, respectively. This is encouraging for their status,
and therefore Dobbin’s prospects.
Look for offensive coordinator Greg Roman to try and find more
ways to get Dobbins involved, and with at least one of the Chargers
two injured linemen likely to return this week, Dobbins should
reclaim no less than RB2 production in what should be a grinder
between the Chargers and Broncos.
Herbert continues to work with a largely inexperienced, rebuilding
offense and one that currently lacks a clear receiving hierarchy,
let alone a decided playmaker. The offense is averaging the fewest
plays per drive (5) of any offense in the league. Coupled with
the fact that head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator
Greg Roman are focusing on a run-heavy attack, Herbert has only
averaged 23 pass attempts per game. Throw in a Broncos defense
that has produced more interceptions (5) than they’ve allowed
passing touchdowns (4), and Herbert can remain on your bench.
Given the low pass volume, it’s no surprise that only one
Chargers wide receiver has over 20 targets through the first four
games (Ladd McConkey, 24). McConkey has flashed the talent that
led Los Angeles to make him an early second round pick, with 4
broken tackles in four games, 2 touchdowns and just 1 drop. But
McConkey has only topped 50 yards receiving once (67 in Week 4)
and he and his teammates face the leagues 2nd toughest pass defense
– a defense that has only allowed 3 receivers to reach double-digit
points, and only one – Chris Godwin – to score more
than 11. It’s best to sit McConkey, as well as teammates
Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston, in a game where it will be very
difficult for any Chargers receiver to even reach flex value.
The Broncos one area of weakness on defense has been against
tight ends, where they have surrendered the 10th-most points to
the position this season. But while Will Dissly has started in
all four games, he’s played just 45% of snaps and has yet
to surpass 3 targets in a game. Hayden Hurst has seen 60% of snaps,
somewhat more promising, but yet hasn’t seen more than 2
targets in a game. Neither tight end has a particular history
of fantasy success, and they aren’t seeing enough action
to stream this week.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Javonte Williams easily leads the Bronco in carries (53), is
second on the team in targets (20) and is tied for first in receptions
(17). In many ways, he is the closest thing to a bell cow on this
offense.
Yet despite having 66 red zone touches since the start of 2023,
he has just 5 total touchdowns in that span and none this year.
It’s not due to a lack of talent, as Williams has 23 broken
tackles in the last 21 games and weighs in at 220 pounds. But
due to the lack of surrounding threats on offense, Williams faces
the 5th most opposing defenders in the box of any running back
in the league. That makes it hard for him to find a strong ceiling.
Still, with 18 touches in each of the last two games, Williams
is getting enough volume to at least have a solid floor. He’s
not an exciting start, and it will be tough for him to finally
find his ceiling against the Chargers, but he’s a floor-based
Flex option in leagues with 12 or more teams.
Quarterback Bo Nix had his first notable performance as a pro,
throwing for 206 yards and 2 scores, as well as adding a rushing
touchdown last week. But Nix faced very little pressure from the
Raiders, had just 5.3 intended air yards per pass, and was boosted
by his offensive weapons producing a whopping 7.7 yards after
the catch. That is an awful lot to ask of one’s targets
on a weekly basis. To top it off, the inexperienced Nix faces
a Chargers defense that has allowed just 1.1 points per drive,
the lowest rate in the NFL. For those holding Nix, encouragement
from last week may best be tempered for the moment.
Part of why the Chargers defense has been so successful is that
they have absolutely stifled opposing top wideouts, having yet
to allow more than 8.4 fantasy points to any of them (Davante
Adams, Week 1). Despite 41 targets thus far, Courtland Sutton
is having a hard time getting on the same page with Nix, even
against less formidable defenses (just a 42% catch rate). He’s
not a great option this week, even if you are short-handed.
There was something afoot with the Steelers last week, with George
Pickens snap count suddenly falling to what has easily been his
low point (59%). Coach Mike Tomlin claimed it was “snap
management”, but Pickens was fined for an expletive written
in his eye black, and it’s reasonable to assume that is
the true reason for why he saw less of the field in Week 5.
Expect a return to normal, at least for the moment, though there’s
always a risk that Pickens steals another page out of former Steeler
Antonio Brown’s playbook. Still, Pickens draws a Raiders defense
that has surrendered big games to a pair of opposing WR1’s (18.6
to Zay Flowers and 22.2 to Diontae Johnson), despite facing a
relatively light cast of opposing receivers – (ie. Denver, Cleveland
and the Los Angeles Chargers, in addition to Baltimore and Carolina).
He could be in line for a top 12 performance, whomever is at quarterback
for the Steelers.
Najee Harris, meanwhile, currently ranks 31st among running backs
in fantasy points, carrying a solid floor – 7.9 or more points
each week – without finding the endzone. A bit of ceiling may
show this week against a Raiders defense that has given up the
8th most points to opposing running backs, including 5 touchdowns,
especially if Russell Wilson ends up drawing the start. Harris
fits into the RB2 conversation.
Pat Freiermuth’s 23 targets, 20 receptions and 2 receiving
touchdowns are all 2nd on the Steelers this year. He’s been
consistently - even if not overwhelmingly – involved, catching
3 to 5 passes each game and coming up with a score in each of
the last two. The tight end position is difficult terrain to navigate
right now, and against a middling Raiders defense – especially
if more moderately mobile Russell Wilson starts – Freiermuth
is a fair play as a TE1.
Mike Tomlin has yet to name his starting QB for Week 6, and after
Justin Fields had an uninspiring performance against the Cowboys
in Week 5, it’s very plausible that Wilson will get his first
start. Wilson’s production could be cut into by Fields coming
in for short yardage plays and near the goal line. No matter who
starts, there’s no guarantee that they don’t get pulled at some
point during the game, making the situation even more murky. Unless
you are in a deep super flex league and playing for upside, it’s
best to fade the Steelers QB situation even against a Raiders
team that has allowed 3 touchdown performances to Andy Dalton
and Bo Nix recently.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
The Steelers have generally stifled opposing WR1’s this season,
with CeeDee Lamb being the latest victim, but opposing WR2’s have
produced double-digit points against them in each of the last
four contests. Josh Downs and Jalen Tolbert have each put up over
18 points against the Steelers, while Josh Reynolds and Quentin
Johnston have each gone for just over 11 points in their respective
matchups with Pittsburgh. I would put Tucker more in the Reynolds/Johnston
range of upside, making him a solid option in multi-flex and deeper
leagues this week.
Update: Jakobi
Meyers has been downgraded to Doubtful.
Meyers picked up 6 receptions for 72 yards on 9 targets, as his
reign as defacto Raiders WR1 officially got underway. 10.2 fantasy
points was a respectable performance against a difficult Broncos
defense. Can he do it again versus a Steelers defense that not
only quieted CeeDee Lamb, but held Drake London to 2.5 fantasy
points earlier this year? That’s a risky proposition, especially
considering that Meyers only broke 60 yards receiving twice with
Aidan O’Connell – this week’s starter – at the helm last season.
His status as the team’s WR1 keeps him in the flex conversation,
but the floor is low for Week 6.
Zamir White has missed both practices to start the week and appears
headed for the Inactive list, meaning Mattison could be in for
another day of considerable volume in what projects as a low-scoring
affair. Mattison did not do much with his 15 carries and 2 receptions
last week (61 total yards and 0 touchdowns), and it will be hard
for him to improve on that against a Steelers defense that has
given up the 4th fewest points to running backs. However, the
potential for moderate-to-high volume makes him at least a flex
play for short-handed fantasy owners.
Aidan O’Connell will be facing the Steelers fierce defense without
the help of Davante Adams, which is notable, because even with
Adams last year, O’Connell failed to break double-digit fantasy
points on three different occasions after taking over as the starter.
That possibility is even more likely in a short-handed offense,
especially when considering that the quarterback carousel could
continue to spin on a weekly basis for Las Vegas. He’s too risky,
without much upside, to even be in play for superflex leagues.
There was a little buzz about Ameer Abdullah as a waiver option
this week after he scored a touchdown in Week 5 and rushed for
42 yards, while picking up 3 receptions. But Abdullah only had
8 touches, and even if he works his way into a split with Mattison,
the Steelers are too difficult an opponent to bank on the yards
per touch and/or score you would need from Abdullah to make him
worth starting.
It’s time to come to terms with the fact that Darnell Mooney
is a viable WR3 or Flex option in fantasy. He’s the WR15
through five games and has the underlying usage of a legitimate
fantasy asset. He’s accounted for 22 percent of the targets
in Atlanta and has just five fewer targets than Drake London on
the year. In fact, based on their usage, London and Mooney are
tied at 15.6 expected fantasy points per game. He has a strong
role in the offense and should continue to produce.
Pitts had a much-needed bounce-back game last week, scoring 15.8
PPR points. Unfortunately, his peripheral metrics were discouraging,
as they have been throughout the year. He may have seen eight
targets, but he had just a 13.6 percent target share. His numbers
were clearly inflated by the fact that Kirk Cousins attempted
58 passes. Even though Pitts doesn’t look great when you dig into
the numbers, he’s still shown the ability to rip off chunk plays
that give him a ceiling that is unattainable by other tight ends.
He is still a far superior option than chasing five targets and
37 receiving yards on the waiver wire.
12.6 PPR points out of Ray-Ray McCloud last week might make it
tempting to start him in Week 6. Like Pitts, his numbers were
obviously boosted by the fact that Cousins attempted nearly 60
passes. It’s quite clear that McCloud is the No.3 receiver
in Atlanta; both overall production and usage would lead you to
that conclusion. This isn’t an offense that can sustain
three receivers and he belongs on the bench.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
After two dominant weeks, Diontae Johnson came back down to Earth
in Week 5 against a talented Chicago secondary. Even though it
was a disappointing week, there’s no reason to move away
from Johnson as a WR2 or WR3 in fantasy. He has been force-fed
targets with Andy Dalton running the offense. In three games with
Dalton, Johnson has seen the ball thrown his way on 30 percent
of his routes. He’s also averaging what would be a career-high
2.24 yards per route. Johnson is Dalton’s go-to guy and
belongs in starting lineups.
Xavier Legette became a popular sleeper option after he became
the WR2 in Carolina when Adam Thielen was placed on IR. Legette
put together a strong performance in his first game without Thielen.
He posted a 6/66/1 stat line for 19.6 PPR points. Unfortunately,
fantasy managers weren’t able to see if he would be able to have
a second straight solid week. He left in Week 6 with a shoulder
injury after running just 12 routes. The most likely outcome is
that Legette’s strong Week 5 performance was merely Carolina taking
advantage of a porous Cincinnati secondary. This does not seem
to be an offense that can support multiple fantasy-relevant receivers
and Legette should be kept on the bench
This game should be an offensive bonanza. Lots of no-brainers
and Goff and Williams could easily fit into that category as well,
but we’ll put them in the Favorites section since their high worth
is not necessarily an every week proposition at this point. The
great news for Goff is that without Micah Parsons and DeMarcus
Lawrence to provide QB pressure, Goff is likely to pick the Dallas
defense apart. The Lions run the ball so well that Goff often
faces defenses that are cheating up to try and limit the effectiveness
of the run game. That allows for some long shots down the field
and that means more opportunities this week for Jameson Williams.
Granted, Williams has only caught 13 balls in four games, so he
represents significant PPR risk. But, the match-up is right this
week and the Dallas D is ripe for getting beat down the field.
Start him.
Not unlike many of the projected top tight ends this season,
Sam LaPorta has struggled to get going. The emergence of Jameson
Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs’s usage out of the backfield in the
passing game, left LaPorta with few opportunities. Still, in his
last game, he recorded his highest yardage total (53) for the
season thus far and he simply can’t be left on your bench unless
you also have George Kittle or Brock Bowers. I’m no longer convinced
he’s going to be a top-3 TE by season’s end with so many other
mouths to feed in Detroit.
Fade: None
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
This game is going to be a high scoring bonanza as all games
with the Lions are and that will benefit the entire Dallas passing
attack. There is a long history in the NFL of star receivers getting
peppered with targets the week after a spat with their corresponding
quarterback, so I do think CeeDee Lamb is in for a huge afternoon
at home. But, that doesn’t mean Tolbert and Ferguson will
be held back. Instead, the 17 combined targets both received in
Week 5 are likely to be duplicated in this game with Dallas needing
to keep its foot on the pedal. I like Tolbert as a back-end WR2
and Ferguson as a top-5 start for the week at his position.
Does the Cowboy backfield essentially belong to Rico Dowdle now?
Yes. Yes, it does. Does than mean he should be started each and
every week from now on? I’m not so sure about that. If Dallas
jumps out to a lead in this game, Dowdle could see his touches
increase significantly, but if the opposite is true, he’ll
become much more TD-dependent. Again, with teams on bye and backfields
a mess in several places, Dowdle is likely going to get plenty
of RB2 consideration this week. I just think there’s some
risk there based on game script and the Cowboys have been stingy
against the position.
Much like Jahan Dotson, I can’t imagine anyone still starting
Elliott at this point, but you never know. He’s averaging
5 carries a game over the past four weeks and is averaging less
than 3 yards per tote on those 20 carries. Not even a desperation
flex play at this point.
The Giants lead the league in sacking opposing QBs, so there
will be a great many screens and/or check-downs to whoever is
in at RB for the Bengals. With Zack Moss nursing an injury, Brown
looks like the best bet to occupy that role the majority of the
time. He has touched the ball 32 times in the past two games and
is averaging nearly 6 yards per carry during that stretch. He’s
a worthy start this week in all formats.
As for Higgins, Chase will rightfully earn the Giants’
top corner and periodic double coverage, giving Tee value each
and every week. The Bengals’ defense is so bad that no lead
is safe and therefore monster fantasy seasons from Burrow, Chase,
and Higgins are coming about as a result.
Even if Moss were healthy, he would still be losing touches to
Brown. Moss is averaging 3.7 yards per carry this season so far-
a far cry from Brown- and has had a couple of weeks salvaged by
trips into the end zone. For now, he’s no longer a solid
option as your RB2. In terms of Gesicki’s worth, he was
targeted more times in Week 2 with Higgins out than he has been
in the past three games combined. As is the case with most teams
sporting a dynamic duo at WR, the number of mouths to feed cut
into tight end relevancy.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
I know putting Daniel Jones amongst my favorites for the week
will draw some skepticism, but when you consider how well he has
played of late and the fact that it’s the Bengals defense he’s
playing against, Jones actually makes for a solid starting option.
He is averaging nearly 260 yards per game over the past three
weeks and has thrown multiple TD passes in two of those three
games. Over that span, he has also looked for Wan’Dale Robinson
early and often targeting him 31 times. And, the presence of Nabers
back in the lineup can only enhance Robinson’s game as it opens
up underneath routes for him.
This is not a case of being “on the fence” due to
not liking a match-up. If Singletary returns to the playing field,
his role won’t be the same as it was before Tyrone Tracy
was given a chance to showcase his talents. Tracy’s contributions
to the Giants’ Week 5 win carved out a role for him moving
forward. The overall ground game for New York could be successful
on Sunday and Tracy will be worth a start if Singletary remains
Out.
Fade: None
I’m not going to suggest fading anyone against the Bengals’ paper
mâché defense. Even Darius Slayton, coming off a 8-122-1 line
should probably be included in the On The Fence section. Since
the Giants have had almost no production from the tight end position
all season, you could fade Theo Johnson. But, if you were in a
position to even consider starting a Giant tight end, I would
be speechless to begin with.
I don’t like this match-up for the Bills. The receiving corps
is out of sorts, particularly if Khalil Shakir (ankle) is unable
to give it a go and Josh Allen is putting up pedestrian numbers
as a result (more on that below). Who would have thought after
the past five years that we’d be looking at Buffalo as something
of a fantasy dead spot outside of a couple of guys. James Cook,
for me, is a no-brainer every week due to his role in the offense,
but outside of that…
Would anyone really have the guts to bench Josh Allen? Well,
if you drafted Baker Mayfield or Jayden Daniels as your back-up
QB and still have one of them rostered, then yes, I’d bench Allen
for either. That’s not merely an indictment of Allen who is still
a very gifted QB with a propensity to score fantasy points with
his legs. It’s also a nod to a Jets’ defense at home that can
make life miserable for opponents and QBs in particular. Take
note of Sam Darnold last weekend. Kincaid should be feasting every
week with the lack of receiving options for Allen, but the fact
that he isn’t just keeps him on the fence indefinitely.
Keon Coleman is always capable of making a big catch downfield,
but factoring in any sort of PPR scoring, it should be noted that
he’s caught just 9 passes in five games. Pass on that. At
least he’s done something, though, which is more than can
be said for Curtis Samuel. It’s hard to believe that I was
once excited about what Samuel might be able to do in a Bills
uniform. Like Coleman, he’s caught just 9 passes all season.
Unlike Coleman, those 9 catches have totaled only 48 yards and
not a single TD. Yuck.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Yes, I realize that the Jets running game has been nothing short
of awful the last two weeks with Hall only gaining 27 yards total
on 19 carries. But, this is get-well spot with Buffalo ranking
31st in points surrendered to opposing RBs. Yes, having played
Baltimore skews that a bit, but not so much as to alter my take.
The Jets fired their coach this week and made the current OC (Hackett)
surrender play calling duties. All of that smells like a recipe
for run, run, and more run in this game. Start Hall with zero
hesitation. Consider Allen as a possible flex choice as the change-of-pace
guy.
Conklin was stellar last week (6-55-0) by 2024’s tight
end standards, but he’s been inconsistent so far this season
alongside the guy throwing him the ball. One thing that has increased
during the past three weeks, though, is targets going from 6 to
8 to 9. Something to consider if you’re needing a plug and
play due to Kelce being on bye for example.
Like I said above, Aaron Rodgers throwing 54 passes last week
was absurd and not a winning formula for the Jets. It’s
going to be a lot of ground-and-pound on Monday night and while
that doesn’t eliminate Garrett Wilson from consideration,
it likely rules out Lazard and Williams as reasonable options
even with Lazard being Rodgers’s preferred red zone target.
