Sam Darnold bounced back from a tough Week 5 against the Jets
to complete 82% of his passes against the Lions last Sunday, while
also rushing for 39 yards and tossing a score against 1 pick.
It was good enough for a top 12 finish in many formats, his 4th
such finish in six games. Darnold has his whole slew of receivers
healthy, and a real chance to get TE T.J. Hockenson in the huddle
against the Rams. That would only further boost both Darnold’s
floor and ceiling against a Rams defense that is middling against
opposing QB’s. Even sans Hockenson, Darnold’s efficiency in this
offense has him situated as a QB1 option in 12-team leagues every
time his explosive wide receiver corps gets to play on turf, which
includes this week.
Aaron Jones has brought his incredible efficiency from Green
Bay to Minnesota producing 5.2 yards per rush and 9.5 yards per
reception, with 3 touchdowns. He’s 11th among running backs
in fantasy points, and draws a Rams defense that has given up
the 10th most points to the position. He’s no less than
a backend RB1 for Week 8.
Wide receiver Jordan Addison has a healthy 209 yards on 20 targets
in four games this season, with both a receiving and rushing touchdown.
In a Vikings offense that has focused on quality over quantity
in the passing game, and with Justin Jefferson as the clear top
option on the team, Addison’s weekly impact is on the fence
more than any player in the league. He will face a Rams defense
that was absolutely scorched by wide receivers earlier in the
season (including a 40+ point performance by Jauan Jennings),
but has recently been aided by the return of defensive backs Darius
Williams and Ahkello Witherspoon. Coupled with a potential increase
in competition in targets, Addison is a borderline play who will
likely rely on scoring or making a couple of big plays downfield
to have a fantasy start-worthy performance.
Speaking of increased competition for targets, after practicing
this week, T.J. Hockenson is listed as questionable for making
his return from a knee injury suffered in 2023. If he returns,
it’s hard to know how close he’ll be to his old self,
at least initially. Still, with many owners searching for answers
at tight end, an active Hockenson can be viewed as a fair roll
of the dice against a Rams team that has struggled for answers,
giving up the 2nd most points per game to the position.
Jalen Nailor has made the most of his opportunities this year,
having scored 3 touchdowns in six games while averaging a whopping
13.3 yards per target. Sam Darnold has a 156.2 passer rating when
targeting Nailor, per pro-football-reference. This may be an indication
that there’s meat left on the bone and a fair opportunity
to increase Nailor’s involvement in the offense. He even
saw a season high in targets (5) last week, during which he produced
76 yards on 4 receptions.
5 targets aren’t very exciting as a high-water mark and
he was not targeted at all the week prior, despite playing 56%
of snaps. Nailor’s situation is further complicated by T.J.
Hockenson’s looming return. When that happens, Nailor’s
prospects of getting substantial involvement will likely diminish.
As of right now, he’s averaging only 2.7 targets per game
making him a boom/bust candidate whose ceiling is arguably only
that of a Flex, and too risky to start.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Cooper Kupp will be making his return the Rams lineup this week,
after practicing in full. Fantasy owners are hoping that he can
get involved early and show the form he had to start the year,
reminiscent of his 2021 and 2022 seasons with Matthew Stafford.
There are trade rumors in the air, and being separated from Stafford
would not be good for Kupp’s upper end value, but it appears any
trade is going to wait until after Week 8.
There’s risk in starting Kupp, coming off another injury
and with some uncertainty as to the size of his role in his first
game back, but the veteran star receiver has significant potential
for 8-10 targets even if he only plays half the snaps. That makes
him a WR2 with some risk, but a ton of ceiling this week against
a Vikings team that has given up the most points to opposing wideouts.
Stafford hasn’t done much but stay afloat over the last
several weeks, and while that has barely made him a QB3 in fantasy
football this year, it has helped keep the Rams in games while
they’ve been extremely shorthanded on offense. The offensive
line has been getting healthier and now Stafford gets at least
one of his key receivers back this week. That shot in the arm
is not necessarily going to be enough to thrust him into QB1 territory,
but if you play in deep leagues, or especially SuperFlex leagues,
Stafford certainly has QB2 appeal versus the Vikings, whose greatest
defensive strength against the pass – interceptions (11)
– is barely punished in most fantasy football formats.
Additional help for Stafford is possible, but unlikely in the
form of Puka Nacua, as his practice window just opened a couple
of days ago. Still, whereas the Rams are listing him as questionable,
his status should be watched prior to gametime. In the odd event
that he is active, he faces a greater risk of being used as a
decoy than Kupp, and is far more likely to see a limited number
of snaps, making him a high-risk Flex play.
Jordan Whittington is out this week, and Tutu Atwell –
who has produced at least 8.1 fantasy points in each of the last
four games – is set to see his role diminish with Kupp’s
return, making it hard for him to have a meaningful impact in
fantasy football. Veterans Tyler Johnson and Demarcus Robinson
have rarely been heard from, even with increased opportunities,
so neither can be banked on even against the vulnerable Vikings
secondary.
Veteran tight end Colby Parkinson’s 13 targets in Week
5 against the Packers created some waiver wire buzz, but following
the bye week he returned with just 2 receptions on 2 targets in
a 20-15 win over the Raiders. Parkinson hasn’t found the
end zone this season, has just 4 career touchdowns in 60 games
and is currently 31st in fantasy points per game at tight end.
He’s a reasonable sit, even in deep leagues.
In four September games, Andrews managed just six catches, 65
yards, and 0 TDs. Since the calendar turned to October, the former
All-Pro has collected 11 receptions for 162 yards and three touchdowns
over a three-game stretch. Andrews’ re-emergence in the
passing game has been great news to owners that targeted him as
a top player at the position -- assuming, of course, that they
didn’t cut bait on him during his early-season struggles.
While the Browns haven’t been bad defensively, sitting 11th
in pass defense, the Ravens have been rolling on offense, and
Andrews’ recent strong play has earned him another shot
in your TE1 role.
Like Andrews, Bateman has come on strong after a slow start.
Over his last three games, the former first-round pick is averaging
4 receptions, 83 yards, and 0.67 TDs. His 121 receiving yards
on Monday night established a new career high. While Flowers was
quiet in that game, much of that was likely due to an ankle injury
he sustained early on, and he remains ahead of Bateman in the
pecking order. That’s part of his designation here, along
with a spotty track record that hasn’t seen him sustain
any kind of measurable success across his first three campaigns.
He has arrived as a usable piece, though, and could be deployed
as a WR3 with a little risk/reward potential.
Fade: N/A
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
With Amari Cooper gone, and Jerry Jeudy struggling, Njoku seems
lined up to serve as the club’s de facto No. 1 target. He caught
10 passes for 76 yards and a touchdown last Sunday, and that score
came late in the game from Jameis Winston, who has been announced
as the starter for Week 8. A year ago, Njoku posted a half-dozen
receptions in each of his two meetings with the Ravens, and he
appears well positioned to meet or exceed that number this Sunday.
For the year, Baltimore has allowed an NFL-worst 287.1 yards per
game through the air. That gives Njoku all kinds of upside as
not just a fantasy starter, but as a possible overall TE1 for
the week.
The loss of Deshaun Watson (Achilles) to a season-ending Achilles
injury opens the door for Winston, who is in his first season
with the Browns following a four-year stint in NOLA. The former
No. 1 overall pick doesn’t lack for confidence, showing an old-school
mentality of putting the ball in danger and trusting his receivers
to make a play. Sometimes it works (he has 142 career TD passes).
Sometimes it doesn’t (he has 99 career INTs). He’s not going to
be gun shy, and that approach could work against the NFL’s last-ranked
pass defense. If your usual QB(s) has a tough matchup for Week
8 and you’re looking for a lottery ticket, you could try Winston.
On the field for the first time since his grotesque leg injury
over a year earlier, Chubb found the end zone for Cleveland’s
first touchdown of the day. His 11 carries were also more than
Pierre Strong, D’Onta Foreman, and the two quarterbacks combined,
so it looks like he’s going to function as the lead back. Those
are all good things. He ended the day with only 22 yards, though,
adding 10 more as a receiver. Even with the Bucs enjoying some
success on the ground last Monday night, the Ravens still boast
the league’s No. 1 run defense at 68.4 yards per game and 3.3
yards per carry. At best, you can try Chubb as your flex, but
even that might be optimistic.
At this point, it’s difficult to feel comfortable relying
on anyone in the Colts’ passing attack. The struggles of
the Colts’ receivers fall squarely on the shoulders of Anthony
Richardson, who’s completing just 48.5 percent of his passes
and ranks dead last in completion percentage over expected.
Richardson has displayed a clear ceiling, scoring 27.1 points
in Week 1, a game where he completed just nine passes. However,
the floor is incredibly low with him; he’s failed to reach
10 points in two of four complete games on the year. Even though
he has an elite ceiling, most rosters are better off with the
stability of another quarterback.
Inconsistencies from Richardson have heavily impacted the fantasy
production of both Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. You don’t
have to dive into the advanced metrics to realize there is a major
issue here. Neither of these receivers have scored double-digit
points this season in a game where Richardson has played all four
quarters. Until Richardson makes improvements as a passer, this
duo belongs on fantasy benches.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
The Tank Dell experience in the absence of Nico Collins has been
a bit of a roller coaster. One week it was a 28-percent target
share and 18.7 PPR points. The next week it was a 19-percent target
share and a goose egg in the box score. It’s hard to lean into
last week’s data and results. C.J. Stroud had arguably the worst
game of his career, completing just 10 passes for 81 yards. Some
peculiar play calling led to an underwhelming game for the Houston
offense as a whole.
Week 8 presents a “get right” spot for Dell and Texans’
aerial attack. The Indianapolis secondary has struggled to contain
receivers and quarterbacks with even a shred of talent. They have
allowed four receivers to eclipse 110 yards and three quarterbacks
to hit 300 yards. Dell has proven that he can compete for targets
with Stefon Diggs and has the opportunity to take advantage of
a secondary that is susceptible to big plays.
Dalton Schultz is the epitome of a “Cardio King”,
going out there and running routes that rarely lead to targets.
He’s cleared a 15-percent target share just twice this season
and doesn’t have a single top-10 finish to his name. There
may be some appeal to Schultz with Collins sidelined, but it’s
best to steer clear of his empty routes.
In an offense that features a multitude of talented weapons,
few players hold full-time roles. But two of those players who
are consistently running routes are Tucker Kraft and Romeo Doubs.
Last week, both Doubs and Kraft cleared an 85-percent route participation.
Neither are particularly high-volume receivers as both have less
than a 20-percent target share on the year. However, this is an
opportunity to make splashes against an attackable secondary.
The Jaguars defense ranks 30th or worse in yards allowed per pass
play, passing yards allowed per game, passing touchdowns allowed,
and EPA per pass. This secondary has been picked apart by just
about every quarterback they’ve faced. Doubs and Musgrave
are strong starts in a plus matchup
When it comes to the Packers’ receiver room, it often feels
like you’re playing a game of Whack-a-Mole trying to project
which receiver will deliver fantasy-relevant production. Dontayvion
Wicks has been targeted on a high percentage of his routes (0.33
TPRR), but he often falls below a 50-percent route participation
when all four receivers are healthy. Christian Watson regularly
sees high-value targets (downfield and endzone looks), but he
also struggles to crest a 50-percent route participation. Given
the unpredictable nature of the receiving room, the best course
of action is to fade the part-time players
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
After a dismal rookie season, Bigsby has found success in his
second year, including two 100-yard rushing games over the last
three weeks. He’s averaging 6.2 yards per carry and has out-played
Etienne to date. Problem is, Etienne (hamstring) has been limited
in participant in practice this week and his status remains unclear.
If he plays, the ceiling for Bigsby takes a hit. In addition,
Tank doesn’t offer up much in the passing game - just 1 reception
on the season. Follow the injury status of Etienne this weekend,
as Bigsby will be a much better option if Etienne sits.
Over the last two seasons, Christian Kirk’s fantasy value
has primarily been driven by his ability to earn targets at a
high rate. These days, Kirk has taken a back seat to Evan Engram
and rookie sensation Brian Thomas Jr. In the two games since Engram’s
return, Kirk has failed to hit a 17-percent target share in either
contest. Kirk isn’t much of a playmaker and without a steady
dose of targets, he’s not a strong fantasy option.
Despite averaging 4.1 yards per carry and coming around average
to below average in other rushing efficiency metrics, Doug Pederson
has indicated that Travis Etienne will still be the team’s
RB1. Even if he is still the lead back, it’s hard to envision
Tank Bigsby not playing some sort of role in this backfield. Etienne
was struggling to deliver RB2-level production in a role where
he was playing 70 percent of snaps; if Bigsby pushes this even
to a 60-40 split, Etienne likely enters fantasy irrelevancy.
With DeAndre Hopkins on his way to Kansas City, Ridley becomes
the clear top target in Nashville. The offseason addition began
his Titans career with seven receptions, 127 yards, and a touchdown
in the first two games, but in four games since he’s fallen off
the map with just five catches for 56 yards. That’s dismal production
for a team’s No. 3 wideout, much less for someone they invested
$92 million on in free agency. The way to attack the Lions is
through the air -- they are 27th against the pass and fifth against
the run -- so look for the Titans to take some shots at getting
Ridley more involved. This game also boasts legitimate garbage
time potential, making Ridley a possible WR3 despite his recent
struggles.
Spears didn’t play in Week 7 due to a hamstring injury,
but he’s trending towards a return this Sunday. Through
five games, the second-year back has disappointed, averaging 38
total yards with just one touchdown. That’s not what fantasy
owners were hoping for coming into 2024 when the expectation was
he’d be heavily involved in the offense in a 1a/1b situation
with Pollard. Instead, Pollard has starred, and Spears has been
used sparingly. This is a week where he could get more involved
as a safe outlet out of the backfield with the same type of garbage
time potential as Ridley. Spears has some upside as a flex.
With Jameson Williams drawing another suspension, this time for
performance-enhancing substances, there’s an opening in the Lions
passing attack. Perhaps it’ll be filled by more targets for Kalif
Raymond or Tim Patrick. Or maybe this will serve as an excuse
to get LaPorta, who starred as a rookie, more involved on offense.
The tight end has just 14 catches (on 17 targets) after six games,
well off his 86-889-10 pace from last season. While Williams wasn’t
heavily targeted, his absence will be felt, as his speed opened
things up for the rest of the receivers. Without him, we could
see more of the intermediate game. LaPorta is a possible top-10
play this week.
Goff has been dialed in. Full stop. Over the last three games,
during which the Lions have scored 120 points, the veteran has
completed 58 of 68 passes (85.3 percent) for 887 yards and 7 TDs
without an interception. He even added a receiving touchdown during
that stretch. The Titans are a solid pass defense, though, allowing
just 166.7 yards per game, third fewest in the NFL, and 7 TDs
in six games. Matchup wise, the smart move is likely to bench
Goff, who is a fringe QB1 most weeks. Given his exceptional play
of late, however, you could be forgiven for riding the hot hand
and keeping Goff in your lineup in Week 8.
Both the target earning (0.19 targets per route run) and separation
metrics are underwhelming, but Kyle Pitts continues to deliver
viable fantasy production. He’s now hit double-digit PPR
points in three straight games, coming in as the TE13 or better
in all three weeks. The question, as always, is whether it’s
best to roll with Pitts and his big-play ability or chase six
targets and 40 yards from someone on the waiver wire. For most
teams, the ceiling-based option in Pitts is the far better choice.
After coming out of the gates scalding hot, Darnell Mooney has
come back down to Earth in recent weeks. He has now taken a clear
No.2 role to Drake London after their numbers looked quite similar
through five games; he’s combined for just 16.4 PPR points
in the last two weeks. Mooney is hanging onto his 20-percent target
share by a thread and his role seems to be shrinking by the week.
He should only be considered in fantasy when the Falcons project
to be in a shootout, but that’s not the case against a decimated
Buccaneers offense.
Kirk Cousins hasn’t exactly been in consideration as a starter
in single-quarterback leagues this year. He’s thrown for 250 yards
and been a top-12 QB just once this season. However, some people
may be inclined to start him this week because Cousins’ lone blow-up
game did come against Tampa Bay. However, it’s important to realize
that this won’t be nearly the same game environment that allowed
Cousins to score 35.4 fantasy points. The Buccaneers offense is
missing its two key weapons, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, and
is in no condition to get into a track meet like they did in Week
5. Cousins can comfortably remain on the bench.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
The three-headed monster in the Tampa Bay backfield may be losing
a head this week. Bucky Irving (toe) has not yet practiced and
is in danger of missing Sunday’s game. If Irving is ruled out,
this would likely lead to Rachaad White holding a larger role
as a rusher, a role that could support top-24 production. White
has always been a strong pass catcher, earning six-plus targets
in three games this year. With Godwin and Evans out for this one,
his role through the air could expand as well. All signs are pointing
to White potentially seeing his largest workload of the year and
he certainly belongs in lineups if Irving is sidelined.
Cade Otton is another player who stands to see more targets in
the absence of Godwin and Evans. The vast majority of the time,
Otton is a low-volume tight end simply due to the fact that he
shares the field with two immensely talented receivers. With them
out of the picture, Otton has shown that he can be a legitimate
target earner. He drew a season-high eight targets against the
Ravens last week. With the changes to the Tampa Bay offense, Otton
is now a viable TE1 option.
Baker Mayfield has been phenomenal this season. He has five top-5
finishes and has been highly efficient with his opportunities,
ranking 4th in fantasy points per dropback. However, the entire
makeup and outlook of the Tampa Bay offense changed in the span
of three hours on Monday night. Without Evans or Godwin, Mayfield
will likely have a hard time sustaining drives and creating scoring
opportunities. It’s hard to see a situation where Mayfield elevates
Jalen McMillan and Sterling Shepard to the point where this offense
ranks even league average in yardage and scoring. Until we get
a glimpse of the new-look Tampa Bay offense, Mayfield is best
left on the bench.
McMillan is expected to take on WR1 duties in Tampa Bay. Much
like the situation with Mayfield, it’s yet to be seen if
this will be an offense that can support impactful fantasy production
through the air. Ideally, McMillan will slide into the Godwin
role that is chock full of underneath, high-percentage targets.
But until we see how he’s actually deployed, he’s
nothing more than a bench stash.
Breece Hall is probably more of a “no-brainer” than he is a “favorite”
at this point, but it’s worth noting that his usage has been incredible
over the past couple of weeks. Although rookie Braelon Allen appeared
to be carving out a role earlier in the season, Hall has completely
taken over the Jets' backfield, playing 87% and 82% of snaps in
the last two games. His production has been outstanding, even
in unfavorable game scripts like last week's blowout loss to the
Steelers, where he still totaled 18 touches, including six receptions
for 103 yards. Hall has consistently been targeted, with at least
four targets in every game and a season-high nine in Week 7. This
week, he faces a Patriots defense that has been shredded by running
backs, allowing over 100 rushing yards in five straight games.
Hall already had success against them in Week 3, and he has the
potential to finish this season as the overall RB1 if the Jets
can find the red zone more frequently.
It's still too early to fully determine the target distribution
between Garrett Wilson and the newly acquired Davante Adams after
just one week, as both played nearly every offensive snap and
were each targeted nine times. While other Jets wide receivers
were phased out, Wilson and Adams dominated the opportunities.
This week, Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez will likely
cover Wilson more often, potentially giving Adams the edge in
production. However, Aaron Rodgers has never been afraid to challenge
tough matchups, so both Wilson and Adams remain solid WR2 options.
Hopefully, Week 9 will provide more clarity on which, if either,
can elevate into WR1 territory.
Despite the Jets' growing group of offensive talent, Aaron Rodgers
just hasn't been able to deliver strong fantasy numbers. While
he has thrown for over 200 yards in five straight games, he hasn’t
hit the 300-yard mark and has struggled with interceptions and
a lack of multi-touchdown performances. Even in his best fantasy
outing against the Patriots in Week 3 (281 yards and two touchdowns),
Rodgers didn’t break into QB1 territory. Without a projected
shootout, Rodgers remains a high-to-mid QB2 due to his limited
mobility and the Jets' run-heavy, defense-focused strategy. He's
a reasonable option for injury fill-ins but not a reliable must-start
quarterback.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
The Patriots' offense has struggled this season, making it tough
to find reliable fantasy options, but tight end Hunter Henry has
started to show some promise. Historically a borderline TE1/TE2,
Henry’s usage has increased over the past two weeks since
Draye Maye took over at quarterback. During that time, he's seen
14 targets, catching 11 for 133 yards and a touchdown. While this
is a small sample size, it’s a positive sign in a year where
the tight end position has been a fantasy wasteland. However,
Henry’s Week 3 matchup against the Jets resulted in a season-low
performance, so he's not a must-start, but he could be a decent
streaming option if you're looking for a tight end with some upside,
especially in deeper leagues.
The Patriots' offense has shown new life since switching to Drake
Maye at quarterback, who has thrown five touchdowns in just two
games, a huge improvement over the two touchdowns the team threw
in its first five contests. While Maye has had some shaky moments,
with occasional poor decisions and imperfect accuracy, his arm
strength and athleticism offer upside that veteran Jacoby Brissett
simply couldn't provide. Maye's yardage totals—243 and 276 yards—already
surpass Brissett’s season high of 168 yards. Despite limited sample
size, Maye has delivered mid-level QB1 fantasy production in both
starts, even in blowout losses. However, this week's matchup against
the Jets, who have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to
quarterbacks, is a difficult test. For fantasy managers willing
to take a risk for potential upside, Maye could be a sneaky play,
especially if he taps more into his rushing ability. If he performs
well against the Jets, Maye could be considered a low-end QB1
moving forward.
Rhamondre Stevenson began the season as the top fantasy producer
for the Patriots and has shown flashes of the borderline RB1 talent
we saw in previous seasons. However, he is currently struggling
with a foot injury that has affected his performance over the
past few weeks. In the Week 7 loss to the Jaguars, Stevenson was
on the field for just 50 percent of the team's snaps, even with
Antonio Gibson dealing with an injury as well. While we can assume
Stevenson will still lead the backfield as long as he's active,
the committee approach has limited his upside in an underperforming
offense, resulting in him failing to reach double-digit PPR fantasy
points in three of his last four games. Additionally, in their
previous matchup in Week 3, Stevenson recorded a season-low 23
yards on just six carries, indicating that the Jets have a history
of neutralizing his impact.
James Conner has seen 19 or more touches in five of the Cardinals'
first seven games this season. Although he hasn't been as involved
in the passing game as in previous years, he continues to dominate
snaps in the Arizona backfield, playing a season-high 84 percent
of snaps in the team's recent win over the Chargers. Despite dealing
with some injuries earlier in the season, Conner appears fully
healthy now, and the Cardinals have no hesitation in giving him
a heavy workload, particularly when they are ahead. This sets
Conner up as a strong RB1 candidate for the week.
Harrison has struggled in the Arizona passing game, failing to
reach 50 receiving yards in five of his seven games, including
the last four straight. He hasn't been seeing the volume expected
of a top receiver, averaging just over five targets per game over
the past four contests. Concerns have arisen about his separation
and ball skills, and from a fantasy perspective, he's not performing
like the mid-to-low WR1 many expected. In a tough matchup against
Miami's strong pass defense, Harrison is now considered more of
a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3, potentially making him bench-worthy
for some managers in Week 8, especially with no bye weeks in play.
Trey McBride has been a decent fantasy tight end this season,
but his production is boosted by the poor performance of other
top tight ends. He has only surpassed six catches in one game,
reached 60 yards twice, and has yet to score a touchdown, though
he still ranks as TE5, despite Arizona already having a bye week.
While Miami has been excellent against tight ends, allowing just
6.4 PPR points per game, McBride remains a likely must-start for
most fantasy managers due to the general lack of strong alternatives
at the position. Expect a low week from him, but he's still a
viable TE1 in most leagues.
Kyler Murray faces an incredibly tough matchup against the Dolphins,
who have been the league’s top pass defense, allowing only
989 passing yards and three touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks
in six games, along with just 77 rushing yards. Their next closest
competitor, the Bears, have given up over 1,200 passing yards,
making the Dolphins an especially difficult opponent. Quarterbacks
are averaging just 11.5 points per game against them. While Murray
has been a low-end QB1 this season, he hasn’t produced the
elite numbers expected of him, throwing only one touchdown in
five of six games and surpassing 220 passing yards just once.
His rushing contributions have kept him fantasy-relevant, but
with only two rushing touchdowns, his ceiling has been limited.
Although Murray always has the potential for a breakout game,
this matchup and Harrison's struggles make it worth considering
safer alternatives for Week 8.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
After a dominant 2023 season, the Dolphins' offense has fallen
off drastically in 2024, largely due to quarterback issues. However,
with Tua Tagovailoa expected to clear concussion protocol and
return for Week 8, there's renewed hope for Dolphins players,
especially top receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Hill,
who was on a record-breaking pace last season, has struggled without
Tua but could be poised for a resurgence. Hill's recent comments
suggesting he's ready for a big fantasy performance add to the
optimism, especially considering his connection with Tua. In Tua’s
only full game this year, Hill saw 12 targets, catching seven
passes for 130 yards and a touchdown. Given the dire state of
the wide receiver position in fantasy due to injuries, Hill is
likely a must-start with Tagovailoa back in the lineup.
Jaylen Waddle has been a major disappointment in 2024, failing
to surpass 50 yards or five catches in his last five games and
still without a touchdown this season. While his lack of red zone
usage is not shocking, his overall involvement in the offense
has been concerning, particularly in Week 7 when he managed just
two targets and 11 yards. A lingering quad injury may be contributing
to his struggles, but with Tua Tagovailoa expected to return in
Week 8, Waddle’s value could rise. In Tua's only full game
this season, Waddle posted season highs with five catches for
109 yards, offering a glimpse of his potential in a functioning
offense. While far from a must-start, Waddle could regain some
fantasy relevance if Tua plays this week.
De’Von Achane started 2024 strong, putting up over 20 fantasy
points in Tua's first two starts, but he's since dropped to Flex-level
production due to Miami's offensive struggles without their starting
quarterback and his own injuries. Achane has only posted one double-digit
PPR performance since, and his workload has been inconsistent.
However, Week 7 showed some promise, as Achane logged 15 carries,
two receptions, and 58 percent of the snaps, maintaining his role
as the lead back. If Tua returns as expected, Achane could rise
back into RB2 territory, with RB1 upside if Miami's offense starts
firing again.
The NFL MVP award is historically awarded to the player (typically
a quarterback) who is both on one of the teams with the most wins
in a given season and is producing high-level statistical output.
But here in 2024, if Tua Tagovailoa makes his return and the Dolphins
get back to being one of the top offenses in the league, then
it’d be tough to make a strong case that he is truly the
league’s most valuable player. Since Tua went down, Miami's
offense has been abysmal, averaging just 10 points per game and
leaving all Dolphins players untrustworthy for fantasy. Facing
an Arizona defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points
to quarterbacks this season, Tua could light up the scoreboard.
However, there's also a chance Miami plays it safe with him after
his serious concussion, limiting his workload. Typically a borderline
QB1/QB2 when healthy, Tua carries more risk than usual in his
first game back, and with the threat of another head injury looming,
fantasy managers might want to keep him on the bench until a clearer
picture emerges in Week 9.
During their Week 7 win over the Giants, Hurts completed just
10 passes. Half of those went to Brown. Smith, meanwhile, had
to settle for one catch for minus-two yards. He was targeted twice.
While that’s miserable production regardless of circumstance,
let’s not worry about it too much. Prior to that, Smith
had topped 60 yards in each of his previous four games, and he’d
scored in half of them. That’s solid WR3 stuff. Cincinnati
sits in the bottom half of the league in pass defense, yielding
217 yards per game with 11 total TDs. When a player like Smith
has a game like that, a lot of times the team will make it a point
of emphasis to get him involved the following week. Look for Smith
to bounce back this Sunday.
Goedert (hamstring) chalked up a DNP in Week 7 as he dealt with
the fallout of a hamstring injury that he sustained the previous
Sunday. Thus far, he’s been unable to return to practice,
which suggests his ability to return against the Bengals remains
very much in the air. Clearly, if he’s inactive, he holds
zero value. Even if he does return, however, there’s a case
to be made that Goedert should be held out of your lineup. Most
of his production -- 17 of 24 catches, and 232 of 301 yards --
came in two games that Brown missed entirely, and Smith missed
all of one and a chunk of the other. Unless you have no other
viable options, it’d be better to see what Goedert does
when everyone is healthy before committing your TE slot to him.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Update: Tee
Higgins (quad) has been downgraded to Questionable and appears
unlikely to play.
The gap between Brown’s usage and that of Zack Moss continued
to widen last Sunday with Brown logging 17 combined touches to
nine for Moss. While the divide in yardage wasn’t nearly as significant
-- Brown posted 53 yards to 40 for Moss -- opportunity is always
a driving force when it comes to predicting fantasy value, and
the bottom line here is that the Illinois product was given nearly
twice as many chances. While they locked down the Giants last
week, the Eagles have had their issues stopping the run. That
includes allowing 4.7 yards per carry, which is more than all
but seven teams. Brown deserves serious consideration as an RB3
with low-end RB2 potential.
As noted above, Moss has fallen into more a secondary role, and
what contributions he has been making recently have come in the
passing game. In fact, over his last three games, the free-agent
addition has carried the ball 21 times for 44 yards, which works
out to a miserable 2.1 yards per carry. He has topped 25 yards
receiving in four of the last five games, though, so he’s at least
chipping in a little bit there. Odds are he won’t deliver meaningful
fantasy value in Week 8. There is a path, though, and it stems
from two reasons: 1) an Eagles defense that allows 4.7 yards per
carry, and 2) the possibility that Cincinnati will want to concentrate
on ball control a bit to keep Hurts and a potentially high-powered
offense on the sidelines.
Tight end slash gadget player Taysom Hill returned to practice
Wednesday, an encouraging sign towards him playing this weekend.
His status needs to be watched, but with Derek Carr likely out
another week along with Rashid Shaheed, Hill has massive upside
in an active role this Sunday. It would not be surprising to see
him play an unusually large number of snaps under center in an
attempt to create some spark in this offense.
Even in a healthier Saints offense, Alvin Kamara was under threat
of being more of a RB2 than an RB1 once Kendre Miller was activated.
Miller saw 6 rushes and 2 receptions last week compared to 7 and
6 for Kamara. It was a blowout loss for Saints, making it hard
to pin down whether this is a sign of things to come or not, but
Miller’s power and ability to break tackles can’t be ignored.
At the very least, with Taysom Hill’s return also looming, goal
line opportunities are under threat in a battered offense that
is going to have trouble scoring. Kamara is clinging onto Flex
territory with Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler starting at QB.
Fade: Saints QBs
2024 fourth round selection Jake
Haener may get another shot for the Saints this week, with
Derek Carr
continuing to heal and Spencer
Rattler struggling in his stead and getting pulled for the
rookie late last week. Rattler is expected to start, but with
a gutted receiving corps, this a tough spot, especially for someone
who profiles more as a backup in the NFL, even once developed.
If he starts, he may not finish the game, but either quarterback
is not going to have much fantasy relevance in this offense.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
The Chargers came out with a surprisingly pass-centric offense
last week and walked away with a 17-15 loss to the Cardinals despite
a great performance by kicker Cameron Dicker. Facing a Saints
team that should have little success moving the ball against the
Chargers defense that is likely getting Joey Bosa back, it’s hard
to imagine Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman not returning
to their bread-and-butter, running early and often to Dobbins
and letting the Saints offense make mistakes. Dobbins has RB1
written all over him with the Saints giving up the 5th most fantasy
points per game to running backs this year, and the Chargers receiving
corps littered with a slew of injuries this week.
Ladd McConkey saw 7 targets last week, producing a 5-46-0 line
and giving him three-straight weeks of at least 7 targets, and
four for the season. His floor is certainly increasing, and considering
that he has two of the team’s three receiving touchdowns,
he has some added ceiling against a Saints team that will likely
give the Chargers ample opportunities in the red zone. The Chargers
should throw less this week, but for McConkey that may be offset
by the fact that nearly every receiver and tight end in the offense
is banged up. Unfortunately, McConkey was on the sideline for
the team’s first practice, as well. If he gets healthy before
the weekend, he is probably a WR4 with upside.
With McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Derius Davis, Will Dissly and
Hayden Hurst all missing Wednesday’s practice with injuries, it’s
not clear who Justin Herbert will have available on offense. D.J.
Chark did return to practice on a limited basis, but whether he’ll
play, and how long he can stay on the field are both major question
marks.
Even with a healthier Chargers offense last week, Herbert was
unable to produce a QB1-worthy day, despite throwing the ball
39 times (14.8 points). With an expected lean on the running game,
Herbert is a safe sit.
Dissly surprised against the Cardinals, picking up 8 receptions
for 81 yards on 11 targets. Unfortunately, Dissly starts the week
with a DNP. He also only averages 2.3 targets per game in his
career, despite being a valuable role player. Outside of the Cardinals
game, his season highs in targets and yards are 5 and 29, respectively.
He also hasn’t scored, like most Chargers. He’ll likely go the
way of Colby Parkinson if he is active, and have a quiet follow
up to last week’s thunder.
Amari Cooper began his Bills career the way his Browns career
ended – with a drop. But following that drop, he and Josh
Allen connected for 5 receptions, 66 yards and a score. Expect
Cooper’s 34.5% snap rate to increase this week. The drops
will continue to be a concern, but with Cooper otherwise productive
in the offense, he can safely be started as a WR2 against a solid
Seahawks pass defense.
Running back James Cook has flirted with RB1 status all season,
and is currently ranked as RB14 in points per game. He draws a
Seahawks defense that has given up the 7th most points per game
to opposing running backs, and is hoping that a trade for run-stuffing
LB Ernest Jones will help fix that problem. As is always the case
after a trade, how quickly Jones can get up to speed remains to
be seen, but he will at least have the whole practice week with
his new teammates. That shouldn’t be enough to keep the effective
Cook out of anyone’s lineup.
Wide receiver Khalil Shakir has been on an incredible tear of
efficiency in 2024, catching 27 of 28 targets. While that’s not
quite sustainable, he did reel in 39 of 45 targets last season.
Over the last two years, that’s a 90.4% catch rate. This remarkable
efficiency should keep him rostered despite the fact that Amari
Cooper is on board and rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman is showing
signs of life. Shakir is probably more of a WR4 than a Flex option
for this week.
Anticipation that Dalton Kincaid could break out in his second
year has turned into disappointment, as he’s ranked just
21st in PPG among tight ends who’ve played multiple games.
The targets – and Kincaid’s floor - have at least
picked up, with Dalton seeing at least 6 in each of the last four
games. Unfortunately, he has just 3 touchdowns in 23 games and
his red zone shares are likely hurt by Amari Cooper’s presence.
Kincaid is a high-floor TE2 against the Seahawks this week.
Fade: N/A
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Geno Smith’s day is largely going to hinge on the health
of his receivers (more on that immediately below). If he does
enjoy having his healthy trio of wideouts, he can be viewed as
a low-end QB1 in a game where the Seahawks may need to make up
ground, despite being home. If Seattle is short-handed, think
of Geno as more of a mid-range QB2.
Ranking 14th among wide receivers in points per game, Metcalf
finds himself “on the fence” due to his injury status.
A knee injury has kept him out of practice as of Thursday, and
it remains to be seen whether he’ll hit the field this weekend.
If Metcalf can’t go, that would likely mean an increase
in targets for both Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, already
23rd and 9th respectively in total targets. Lockett has done a
bit more with his targets than JSN, currently ranked 50th in points
per game (Smith-Njigba is 56th). There’s been some meat
left on the bone in the connection between Geno and Smith-Njigba,
and a Bills defense that has given up the 8th fewest points to
wide receivers probably won’t provide much help. But sans
Metcalf, Smith-Njigba and Lockett could get to flex territory
via extra targets. Otherwise, view both as WR5’s against
Buffalo.
After experiencing some early-season challenges, rookie Caleb
Williams has shown significant improvement over the past two weeks,
proving why he was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 Draft. During
this stretch, he's maintained a high level of efficiency, completing
only 29 passes in each game but totaling six touchdowns and 530
passing yards, along with 90 rushing yards, thanks to the Bears'
commanding leads against the Panthers and Jaguars. Following a
bye week, Chicago faces a Commanders' defense that, while performing
better than anticipated, has primarily faced fewer challenging
quarterbacks, with Kyler Murray being the only notable player
who struggled against them. With his receivers back to full health
and the team well-prepared, fantasy managers should feel confident
in starting Williams in Week 8.
In the 2024 season, Moore has emerged as the most consistent
option among Chicago's wide receivers, functioning as a low-end
WR2. He has scored at least 10 fantasy points in all but one game,
leading the team in target share in all but one contest. Moore
is expected to remain a reliable WR2/3 with the potential for
WR1 weeks, especially in a potential shootout against the Commanders,
making him a solid choice for fantasy lineups.
On the tight end front, Kmet has made a notable impact despite
the overall struggles of the position this season. Currently ranked
as the TE3 overall, he has found the end zone three times, trailing
only George Kittle and Tucker Kraft in touchdown receptions. Kmet's
performance aligns with the Bears' improving offensive rhythm,
offering him increased opportunities to score. However, it’s important
to note that he has surpassed five targets in only one game this
season, and with Keenan Allen's health improving, Kmet's target
volume may remain limited. Nevertheless, given the tight end landscape's
challenges, Kmet is still positioned as a mid-to-low-end TE1,
especially if rookie Caleb Williams continues to look for him
in the red zone.
Keenan Allen has shown flashes of his former self with a two-touchdown
performance in Week 6, but fantasy managers should remain cautious.
Despite the impressive output, Allen achieved those touchdowns
on only five targets, converting them into 41 yards. This level
of efficiency is not sustainable week-to-week, especially considering
he had not reached five catches or 35 yards in any game prior
to Week 6.
While Allen is still receiving significant playing time, his
target share could improve as he continues to regain health following
the bye week. However, he may still serve as a low-volume, touchdown-dependent
option in this offense. Although he has a favorable matchup coming
up, fantasy managers should avoid overreacting to his recent performance,
as he might not yet be back to elite fantasy status.
Rookie Rome Odunze continues to see a fair number of snaps but
has not been able to translate that into meaningful volume for
fantasy purposes. Since Keenan Allen's return, Odunze has garnered
just 11 targets across three games. With D.J. Moore, Cole Kmet,
and D’Andre Swift also competing for targets in a low-volume
passing offense, opportunities for Odunze are scarce.
Odunze has been efficient with the limited chances he’s
received, which offers some optimism for his potential future
production. He’s more of a “buy low” candidate
for dynasty leagues, as he could develop into a more significant
role down the line. For now, unless injuries occur among the primary
receiving options, Odunze is likely best viewed as a low-end Flex
option.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Robinson has emerged as one of the more reliable options in fantasy
football this season, even with his absence of about a game and
a half due to injury. Currently sitting outside of RB1 territory
in overall fantasy rankings, Robinson has been impressive with
six touchdowns in his six starts.
He averages over 14 carries per game, demonstrating a consistent
workload, though he’s not known for explosive plays or a
robust passing game, often finishing with limited receptions.
His strength lies in his ability to find the end zone, making
him a high-potential touchdown candidate each week.
In Week 8, Robinson faces a Chicago defense that has struggled
against the run, allowing 100 or more rushing yards to opposing
backs in four of their six games and conceding a total of six
rushing touchdowns. With Jayden Daniels potentially limited due
to rib injuries, the Commanders may lean on Robinson even more,
particularly in goal-line situations.
Given the favorable matchup and his scoring ability, Robinson
should be considered a mid-level RB1, making him a solid play
for fantasy lineups this week.
Jayden Daniels has been a standout fantasy option this season,
drawing comparisons to Lamar Jackson for his dual-threat capabilities.
However, his recent rib injury has raised concerns about his availability
moving forward. Listed as “week-to-week,” his status
for Week 8 remains uncertain, which complicates matters for fantasy
managers. The Commanders play in the late-afternoon slate, so
confirmation of his status may not arrive until after early games,
leaving managers with limited options if he’s ruled out.
If he’s able to suit up, Daniels should still be regarded
as a low-end QB1. While he may not be able to run as frequently
due to the injury, his overall production this season makes him
a valuable asset even at less than full strength. Fantasy managers
should keep a close eye on updates regarding his health leading
into game day.
Terry McLaurin has experienced a career renaissance this season,
positioning himself as a borderline WR1 largely thanks to his
chemistry with Daniels. He has consistently produced, with at
least four catches in every game since Week 1, including multiple
outings exceeding 90 receiving yards and four total touchdowns.
If Daniels plays, McLaurin is likely a mid-level WR2, given their
strong connection. However, if Marcus Mariota steps in, McLaurin's
value takes a hit. He showed resilience last week, catching six
passes for 98 yards even with Mariota at the helm, but he may
slide to a mid-level WR3 in that scenario. Against a solid Chicago
pass defense, McLaurin carries some risk but remains a viable
option, depending on the quarterback situation. Fantasy managers
should monitor the developments closely to gauge his potential
output for Week 8.
Austin Ekeler has faced a challenging situation lately, especially
in the context of fantasy football. Despite being a reliable scorer
earlier in the season, he has struggled to make a significant
impact in recent games. In his last outing, he carried the ball
just four times for 17 yards against a weak Panthers run defense,
which was surprising given his previous consistency of 10 or more
PPR points in every start prior to that game.
His usage has been limited; he played only 38% of the snaps,
primarily in passing situations. This trend raises concerns about
his volume and reliability as a fantasy asset. With the Commanders
potentially shifting to a more pass-heavy strategy, particularly
if Jayden Daniels is sidelined, the dynamics of the game could
change. However, even in a more favorable game script against
the Bears, Ekeler's realistic upside may only reach around 15
PPR points if he can find the end zone.
Given his current trajectory and the inconsistency in his workload,
relying on Ekeler may not be worthwhile for many fantasy managers.
Expecting 5 to 10 fantasy points in most scenarios makes him a
risky option. Unless his usage significantly improves or he demonstrates
a return to form, Ekeler may be best left on the bench for the
time being.
Kareem Hunt is averaging 21 rush attempts since joining the Chiefs
active roster, and is currently 9th in fantasy points per game
among running backs. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was a healthy scratch
in his first game off IR, and there’s no reason to expect a major
change this week. Hunt draws a matchup that should feature positive
game script and provide him with another voluminous day, giving
him RB1 upside once more.
Patrick Mahomes struggles (6 TDs 8 INTs) are a great remainder
that a quarterback’s production, or lack thereof, is as much a
result of the capabilities of the system they are in than anything
else. Some good news is coming for Mahomes, as the Chiefs have
traded for veteran wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins may
not be as effective as the more youthful Rashee Rice, but he still
has great hands and can break tackles, meaning he can play a similar
role as a catch-and-run receiver.
How quickly Hopkins can get acclimated in the offense will go
a long way towards how quickly Patrick Mahomes can return to being
at least a Top 12 fantasy quarterback, as well how quickly Hopkins
can return to relevance as a Flex or even WR2. In their first
week together, proceed with extreme caution.
Wide receiver Xavier Worthy has rode 4 touchdowns to WR4 production
and is probably going to be another benefactor of Hopkins arrival.
There was some excitement for an expanded route tree for Worthy
after Rice went down, but that hasn’t developed yet. Additionally,
whereas touchdown production seems to be Worthy’s best avenue
to success, having Hopkins on board should lead to more red zone
appearances for the Chiefs offense. Worthy should enter the flex
conversation more regularly as a result, including this week against
the a weakened Raiders team.
Travis Kelce faces a growing downgrade with each moment Hopkins
and Mahomes become more familiar. Kelce is only 20th in fantasy
points per game at tight end right now but he saw a spike into
Top 12 territory after Rice was injured. Still, it’s clear
that Kelce is more of a lumbering player these days. Just two
first down receptions per game and no touchdowns tell the story.
Kelce is no more than a borderline TE1 in this transitional week,
facing a Raiders team that has allowed the 8th fewest points to
the position.
JuJu Smith-Schuster came, he saw, and he conquered… for
one week. Smith-Schuster has already been ruled out, but upon
his return, it can be expected that he’ll move back to being
a depth piece more than a significant player in the Chiefs offense.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Jakobi Meyers was downgraded from limited participant on Wednesday,
to a non-participant at Thursday’s practice. That’s
not a great sign for his availability this weekend, so it may
be good to have an alternate plan in place if you’re relying
on Meyers being in your line up.
Alexander Mattison was barely affected by the return of Zamir
White last week, raking in 23 carries (92 yards), plus 3 receptions
(31 yards). The swimming will come much tougher this week, no
matter the volume, as the Chiefs have been the best run defense
in the league. With the woes the Raiders are having in the passing
game, expect them to fully focus on and silence Mattison.
Hubbard has been the focal point de jure in the Panthers offense
this season, but notably that spark was lit when Andy Dalton took
over the helm for Carolina in Week 3. Dalton is out, at least
for this week, after being in a minor car accident with his family
and spraining his thumb. That brings Bryce Young back into the
picture, a probable downgrade for all Panthers, including Hubbard,
who had just 11 total fantasy points in two games with Young under
center this season.
With Jonathan Brooks (knee) now at practice, and likely to be
activated in the next 2-3 weeks, this may be the last good moment
to trade Hubbard for significant value.
At least for Week 8, Bryce Young returns as the Panthers starting
QB. After getting benched only two games into his second season,
it’s hard to envision Young having had enough time to grow
in a way that would make him start-able even in Super Flex leagues,
especially against the Broncos defense that has allowed the 4th
fewest fantasy points to the position.
Meanwhile, like Chuba Hubbard, Diontae Johnson faces a downgrade
with Young starting. For Johnson, the fall is steep, evidenced
by the mere 5 catches for 34 yards he had in total during the
former 1st round picks two starts this year. It’s best to
sit Johnson until Dalton returns as the QB1 of this offense.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Javonte Williams reached the end zone twice against the struggling
Saints – his first TDs of the season, and he’ll have
another great opportunity to score and pick up a big fantasy day
against the Panthers, who have given up an incredible 14 touchdowns
to running backs. No team has allowed more fantasy points to the
position than Carolina, and that makes Williams a must start.
Quarterback Bo Nix has been better of late. He’s certainly
been more productive from a fantasy standpoint, with a pair of
performances just inside the Top 10 in weeks 5 and 6. Last week
he provided just 14.1 points for fantasy owners, but had a turnover
free day while rushing for 75 yards. The recent rushing is notable,
having compiled 61 rushing yards the week before and rushing for
a touchdown in Week 5. He’s averaged 8 rushes per game during
this span.
Nix will draw a Panthers defense which has given up 14 touchdowns
against 3 interceptions to opposing QBs, and should provide his
Broncos team with good field position. Expect a safe game plan,
but one where Nix may be again asked to do enough with his legs
to put him into high end QB2 territory. He’s a solid start
for deeper 1QB and Superflex leagues.
While Courtland Sutton still leads the Broncos with 47 targets,
he was not targeted a single time in their win over the Saints,
despite playing 86% of snaps. It’s likely that he’ll
have a bounce back this week, but the reality is that Bo Nix has
been inefficient in targeting Sutton (45% completion rate, 5.9
yards per target) and it’s unlikely that the Broncos will
press the issue in another game where they don’t have to.
The 49ers’ secondary has played better in recent weeks, but most
of the success has come via Charvarius Ward’s coverage. Michael
Wilson, Tyler Lockett and Mecole Hardman have all had double-digit
performances away from Ward. Prescott is unlikely to shy away
from CeeDee Lamb, but athletic Jalen Tolbert has ample talent
to be viewed as a Flex this week.
Tight end Jake Ferguson is currently TE No.10 in fantasy points
per game, despite having yet to score a touchdown this year. In
short, he carries a relatively high floor for the position. The
ceiling may not necessarily come versus a 49ers defense that tends
to cover the position pretty well (12th fewest points allowed),
but they are weaker without Dre Greenlaw, which means Ferguson
can be looked at as a Top 12 option this week.
Last year against San Francisco, Prescott threw 1 touchdown against
3 interceptions in a blowout loss. This time, coming off a bye
week following a blowout defeat to the Lions, Prescott and the
Cowboys have more time to prepare against a Niners defense that
isn’t as bullet proof this year. Whether Prescott can right
the ship on a season in which he is just 17th in fantasy points
per game remains to be seen, but coming off a bye is an opportune
moment. The ball will have to go through Prescott’s arm
for the Cowboys to win, so think of Prescott as a high-end QB2
for Week 8.
Running back Rico Dowdle followed up a career-high 20-carryt
performance against the Steelers with just 5 rushes against the
Lions. Granted, the Cowboys were blown out by the Lions, and he
did reel in 5 receptions, but Dowdle has yet to see more than
50% of snaps this season, and saw just 28% of snaps in the loss.
Zeke Elliott - hardly a threat as a receiving back - saw 41% of
snaps in the same game. It raises a serious question as to whether
the Cowboys think Dowdle can handle a heavy work load regularly.
Generally having been an RB4 this season, Dowdle carries the risk
of a very low floor on the road against the Niners.
Fade: N/A
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Purdy threw 3 interceptions last week in a game where he was
without Deebo Samuel (illness) and lost Brandin Aiyuk to a torn
ACL. Purdy has often failed to thrive when the Niners overloaded
offense has been made far more human by injuries, and Week 7 proved
to be another such case.
Deebo’s possible return this week from illness could help, but
Jauan Jennings has missed both Wednesday’s and Thursday’s practice,
and may be headed for the Inactive list. The Cowboys, on the other
hand, may be without CB Daron Bland (foot) and elite pass rusher
Micah Parsons (ankle), which would improve Purdy’s case for being
in the QB1 conversation. Purdy is truly on the fence, and whether
or not he’s worth starting should really come down to whether
the 49ers offense gets healthier by the weekend, as well as whether
Parsons stays off the field. Watch those injury reports closely.
Running back Jordan Mason did not look himself in trying to play
through an AC joint strain last week, struggling to produce after
contact and at times even seeming to shy away from it. That’s
quite understandable, considering the pain involved with his injury,
but it raises the question as to whether he can produce on a difference-making
level until he heals up. He’s been a limited participant so far
at practice, and should be expected to play through the injury,
once more. Following a 14-58-0 performance on the ground, and
with the Niners choosing to use the QB sneak at the goal line
repeatedly rather than give it to Mason, his fantasy owners are
likely going to have to rely on gaping holes from a leaky Dallas
run defense to get him into RB2 territory.
In the two games Devin Singletary missed due to injury, Tracy
stepped in and ran the ball 35 times for 179 yards and a touchdown
-- he added 58 yards on seven receptions. With Singletary back
last Sunday, Tracy had nine touches for 32 yards. The interesting
thing is that Singletary logged just six touches. While acknowledging
that nothing looked good offensively for the Giants in Week 7,
the split at least provides some hope that Tracy’s performance
in those two games has carved out a spot for him. Then again,
the Giants lost by 25, and Singletary was returning from injury,
so maybe in competitive situations they’ll still look to lean
on the veteran. Tracy would be a bit of a desperation play here,
but you can see a scenario where he’d generate some value.
Forced to play without Nabers and Singletary in Weeks 5 and 6,
Jones averaged 231 yards passing, 47 yards rushing, and 1 TD.
He got both back last week, and the offense looked exponentially
worse. Jones took seven sacks and threw for a paltry 99 yards
before Brian Daboll mercifully pulled the plug and inserted Drew
Lock. Pittsburgh hasn’t been great against the pass this
year (217.3 yards per game; 22nd), but they’re one of just
four teams with more INTs (9) than TD passes allowed (8). After
getting benched last week, Jones needs to be kept away from your
lineup this Monday night.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
With the Steelers sitting at 4-2, Mike Tomlin’s decision to make
the switch from Justin Fields to Wilson was a risky one. For at
least one week, it paid off. Wilson shook off a slow start against
the Jets to throw for 264 yards and 2 TDs while adding a score
on a quarterback sneak. Three TDs will get it done for fantasy
owners every time out. The Giants are tough, ranking sixth against
the pass (179.4 yards/game) while also leading the NFL in sacks
(31). The Jets were ranked second, however, and Wilson still made
plays. Plus, getting thumped at home by a divisional rival has
a chance to linger as the G-Men suddenly look like a team that’s
headed nowhere in 2024. There’s some risk based on the numbers,
but this feels like two teams going in opposite directions.
Fun fact: the Steelers are 5-0 when Warren plays, and 0-2 when
he doesn’t. Given his minimal role for much of the season,
that’s more coincidence than anything else. Still, the third-year
pro is coming off his busiest game of the season, carrying the
ball 12 times for 44 yards and catching two passes for 15 more.
Considered more of the passing-down back in conjunction with Harris
as the thumper, Warren is a nice fit for the way Wilson plays
the game, similar to what Samaje Perine was in Denver. Look for
his role to grow as long as Wilson maintains the starting job.
For Monday night against the Giants, Warren is an interesting
flex option.
