Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott missed both games against the
Eagles in 2024 due to injury, but he’s set to make his return
to the lineup here in the NFL regular season opener on Thursday
night. The Cowboys were held to just 13 total points in their
two games against the Eagles in 2024, but Prescott was quite productive
against this defense when he played against them in 2023. He threw
for 645 yards and five touchdowns without an interception in those
games and he was even productive in the one game he played against
them back in 2022. Those numbers don’t exactly translate to the
situation the Cowboys are in now, of course, but while their revamped
offensive line is young and unproven, there’s hope to be had with
the addition of wide receiver George Pickens this offseason.
With Micah Parsons sidelined, the Cowboys’ defense is in
disarray, giving the Eagles a strong chance to put up points.
That game script could push Dallas into a heavier passing attack
than the coaching staff would normally like. There’s always
some risk that Dak Prescott struggles with turnovers in this spot,
but the upside of 40+ pass attempts makes him a solid QB1 play
in Week 1.
While his time in Pittsburgh came to an end with some controversy,
George Pickens has some serious potential now that he’s in a much
higher-octane offense in Dallas. Pickens has the opportunity to
play alongside multi-time Pro Bowl wide receiver CeeDee Lamb while
catching passes from another multi-time Pro Bowl quarterback Dak
Prescott.
Pickens is the type of big-bodied field-stretching wide receiver
that the Cowboys have been missing in their offense. He immediately
steps into a starting role out wide and should see a significant
target share with the Cowboys only having Lamb as an established
pass-catcher in the offense.
It may take some time before Pickens and Prescott create a connection,
which is why he’s in the “On the Fence” category,
but there’s some potential for a boom game here in his first
game with his new team.
Fade: Cowboys Running Backs
Whether you’re reading information from the team beat writers,
fantasy analysts, or the Cowboys’ staff themselves, you’ve probably
heard a variety of opinions on the Dallas backfield. For Week
1, it appears that Javonte
Williams will get the start and the bulk of the backfield
touches, so he’s probably the best option if you’re absolutely
in need and have to start one of them, but the most likely scenario
here is that we’re going to see some sort of committee with Williams
splitting snaps with fellow offseason acquisition Miles
Sanders and rookie Jaydon
Blue. We may even see return specialist KeVontae Turpin line
up in the backfield for a few plays, which only further muddies
the situation.
The Cowboys have the offensive firepower to put points on the
board, but there’s a real chance that this game becomes
a blowout, which would almost certainly lead to a pass-heavy game
script and further limit this backfield.
There’s too much uncertainty and risk to trust any Dallas
RB at the moment. This is a “stay away” situation
until we get a better idea of what the coaching staff is thinking.
The defending Super Bowl champions are one of the strongest offensive
plays on the board this week, and wide receiver Devonta Smith
is no exception. Smith went off the last time the Eagles hosted
the Cowboys, catching six of the seven passes for 120 yards and
two scores.
While Smith doesn’t have the upside of A.J. Brown, he’s
still a reliable WR2 with the potential for WR1 weeks. The biggest
concern in this game is probably that the Eagles could get out
to a hot start and end up relying on their running game rather
than airing it out. Still, even if the Eagles are up by multiple
scores, there’s a good chance that Smith was involved, which
should allow him to provide enough fantasy production for managers
to be happy at the end of the game.
Dallas Goedert’s days of being a reliable TE1 for fantasy
are probably in the past, but that doesn’t mean that he
can’t still have useful games from time to time. Historically,
Goedert has struggled to produce usable fantasy games when he’s
been matched up against the Cowboys, but this game could be different.
The Cowboys are now without superstar pass-rusher Micah Parsons,
who left for Green Bay, leaving a huge hole on their defense.
Like most tight ends, Goedert has often been asked to assist,
or at least chip in pass protection when facing players like Parsons,
so his pass-catching upside has been limited a bit in those contests.
This will be the first time that Goedert has faced the Cowboys
without Parsons since the pass-rusher was drafted, so look for
Goedert to have more route-running opportunities than usual. Time
will tell if that translates into better fantasy production, but
it’s at least enough for him to be considered as a streaming
option here in Week 1.
Fade: N/A
Get your Eagles into your lineup in what is expected to be one
of the highest-scoring games of the week. This could even turn
into a blowout in Philadelphia’s favor, which would give
plenty of Eagles players a chance to get into the end zone.
While Patrick Mahomes has been a bit of a fantasy football disappointment
over the last couple of years, he's still physically in his prime
and has finished 1st among QBs in fantasy points twice. And despite
the aging of top target Travis Kelce, the offensive unit is looking
up from where it’s been the last couple of seasons.
With Xavier Worthy entering his second year, Marquise Brown healthy
and Rashee Rice due to return following finally being suspended,
Mahomes has a lot to work with in which to get back to a Top 3-5
fantasy QB. Don't expect that right out of the gate, especially
versus Jim Harbaugh and a respectable Chargers defense, but he's
reasonably a QB1 against L.A.
Xavier Worthy finished as WR33 in fantasy points last season.
He was tied with fellow rookie prospect Marvin Harrison Jr. for
39th among wide receivers in FPts/G (9.9). After the Chiefs lost
Rice to injury in week 4, Worthy was up-and-down after being forced
into a greater role. Between weeks 4 and 14, he had under 4 points
on three occasions (including -1.6) and over 14 points twice.
Then, in week 15, he took off, producing at least 16.6 fantasy
points in five of his final six games (counting the post season).
He saw his first two double-digit target games of his career during
that time, and saw at least 6 targets in every game after Week
12.
Worthy also added 20 carries and 3 rushing touchdowns, offering
some bonus traits reminiscent of early Tyreek Hill. Worthy can't
be expected to take the kind of leap Hill did, but with Rice out
for 6 games to start 2025, there's good reason to believe that
Worthy will not just be the de facto WR1, but also a very productive
one. The Chargers aren’t an easy matchup (16th fewest FPts/G to
WR last year), but the benefits outweigh the risks, making Worthy
a solid WR2 for Week 1.
After running back Isiah Pacheco returned from injury last season,
he failed to regain his spot as the team's lead back, and only
saw 13 carries in three post season games. Pacheco gets another
crack at lead duties to being 2025, with 30-year-old Kareem Hunt
and oft-injured Elijah Mitchell being his main competition in
the backfield. A healthier Pacheco has a decent chance to win
at least a 55/45 share of the workload.
He draws a Chargers defense that allowed over 200 yards rushing
to opposing offenses twice down the stretch last season, and 168
to the Texans in a playoff loss. It's a winnable match up and
arguably makes Pacheco a flex option for Week 1.
Aging tight end Travis Kelce enters 2025 trying to stop a steep
slide that began in 2023, and saw him average just 8.5 yards per
reception last season. He is clearly not the player he once was,
and at 36 years old, a further decline is more likely than any
significant bounce back.
Kelce is likely the 3rd option in the offense, largely looked
to as a short-yardage and redzone target by Mahomes. A lot of
redzone action could keep Kelce among the Top 6-8 tight ends,
but with just 8 total touchdowns over the last two seasons, that
is an uphill climb. Kelce should be at his healthiest - and most
targeted (sans Rashee Rice) - early in the season, and carries
back end TE1 value against the Chargers.
Hollywood Brown had 15 targets in two regular season games after
returning from injury last year, but only saw 13 more targets
in three post-season games. In the process, he did not top 46
yards receiving in any of last season's performances, nor did
he score a touchdown. Brown has not been a fantasy football factor
since the 1st half of 2023, when Arizona's Kyler Murray was regularly
targeting him 10 or more times.
Since then, he’s been shackled by injury issues, but at
least some of the upside is still there as the veteran receiver
seems the healthiest he's been in some time. He'll likely be a
useful asset for Mahomes, but with only one 1000-yard season in
his career, it's far from a guarantee that Brown will be a reliable
figure on a weekly basis. He's best to sit against a respectable
Chargers pass defense that kept Mahomes under 250 passing yards
in both meeting last season.
McConkey enters his sophomore season after having turned out
an outstanding 10.3 yards per target on 112 targets as a rookie.
He also put up 197 yards and a touchdown on 14 targets in a playoff
loss to Houston. Ladd’s arrow is only pointing up for his career,
though he will see increased target competition with rookie Tre
Harris and veteran Keenan Allen in the mix.
Still, with how efficient McConkey was as a rookie, as well as
the outright dominance he displayed at times as the season progressed,
it’s hard to imagine him being anything less than Justin
Herbert’s number 1 guy. Drawing a Chiefs defense that allowed
the 9th most yards per drive last season and surrendered 5-67-1
to McConkey in his only matchup with them last season, he’s
arguably a low end WR1 for opening week.
Herbert finished just 18th among quarterbacks in fantasy points
per game last season (17.0), even though his real-life numbers
were solid — 23 touchdowns against only 3 interceptions. The Chargers
added receiving help this offseason (rookie Tre Harris, veteran
Keenan Allen), but the signing of Najee Harris and the first-round
selection of Omarion Hampton signal that Greg Roman’s run-heavy
philosophy will remain in place, which could cap Herbert’s fantasy
ceiling.
On the defensive side, Kansas City wasn’t exactly a shutdown
unit against quarterbacks, giving up the 12th-most fantasy points
to the position in 2024. With no major defensive upgrades made,
the matchup is reasonable, but volume concerns hold Herbert back
from QB1 status. Consider him a high-end QB2 in Week 1.
Hampton enters his rookie season with plenty of buzz after being
selected late in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. On the
Chargers’ depth chart, though, he and Najee Harris are essentially
co-starters — more RB1a and RB1b than clear-cut lead and
backup. Harris continues to take criticism in fantasy circles,
but he’s proven both durable (68 straight regular-season
games played), tough to bring down (most broken tackles over the
past four seasons), and reliable with the football (just five
career fumbles). Simply put, Harris is still a trusted veteran
who isn’t going to hand the job over easily.
Even with Harris missing some camp time due to a fireworks accident,
the most likely scenario is a split backfield — and there’s
a strong chance Harris gets the larger share of touches while
Hampton adjusts to the pro game. The good news: the Chargers were
top-five in rushing attempts last season, and Greg Roman’s
scheme suggests more of the same in 2025. That volume should give
Hampton enough opportunities to deliver flex value and possibly
back-end RB2 production.
The bad news: Week 1 is a brutal draw. Kansas City allowed the
fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2024, and combining
that with the uncertainty of Hampton’s workload makes him
a risky flex play with upside rather than a reliable starter this
week.
While it’s plausible that Najee Harris outpaces Omarion
Hampton in touches early on, his role figures to be more specialized.
Expect Harris to handle the bulk of the early-down, short-yardage,
and goal-line work, but not see much involvement in the passing
game. That role limits his week-to-week upside, making him more
dependent on positive game scripts and soft defensive matchups.
Unfortunately, he doesn’t get either in Week 1. Kansas City
allowed just 3.8 yards per carry and nine rushing touchdowns all
of last season, making Harris a tough sell. He’ll have flex-worthy
spots down the line -- especially in what should be a more efficient
offense than Pittsburgh’s -- but this week, he’s best
left on the bench.
As for the passing game, the Chargers will lean heavily on the
run under Greg Roman, especially in the early going. Even if negative
game script forces more throws later, there isn’t enough
clarity on where Harris or Allen fall in the target hierarchy
to trust either in Week 1. Until roles solidify, both are better
suited for benches outside of the deepest leagues.
I could justify placing Mayfield with Irving and Evans in the
section above. Don’t shy away from starting him this week.
Last year, Baker posted 25.2 and 29.6 fantasy points in two games
against the Falcons. He tossed 3 TDs in each of those games, but
replicating his week-to-week passing-yardage variability, he finished
with only 180 passing yards in the first but a healthy 330 in
the second. On a team loaded with talent there’s a big range
of outcomes, especially with a new play caller for Buccaneer Baker.
Rookie WR Emeka Egbuka is an opportunistic play in Week 1. The
first-rounder has shown impressive skills in camp, and with both
Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan out for weeks it’s time to ride
the E-Train. He’ll likely see some rushing and return opportunities
this season, too. Need one more nudge to start him (especially
in your daily lineups)? There is a long list of stud WRs coming
out of Ohio State, including Cris Carter, David Boston, Terry
Glenn, Michael Thomas, Marvin Harrison Jr, Garrett Wilson, Jaxon
Smith-Njigba, Chris Olave and Terry McLaurin. Who has the Buckeyes
record for most receptions? E² is your answer, with 205.
While Otton will likely be undrafted in many 12-team leagues,
his 2024 targets popped when Godwin or Evans missed significant
time. With a new OC, opportunity shares among Otton, and RBs Irving
and White (and Sean Tucker) are TBD. Weeks 1 and 5 present softer
defensive matchups for Otton, with extra targets up for grabs,
too.
I never imagined writing those words together, before researching
this piece. Aside from a solid rookie year, Pitts has disappointed.
In fact, most games he has disappeared. He scored a touchdown
in just three games last year, and three games the previous year.
So how did he make my “favorites” this week? In his
two games against the Bucs in 2024, Pitts posted 7/88/0 and 4/91/2.
Those two efforts are his most productive fantasy games in 2-1/2
years! The one thing that concerns me, is the Falcons might need
his blocking to help the 3rd-string right tackle. I’m not
suggesting you sit a TE1 and kick-it with Kyle, but I am saying
for DFS (or even a player prop), this is the week Pitts could
be cherry.
I like Mooney more than most, even though he’s not the
first or second choice in the passing game (on a team that likes
to run). His 15.5 YPC in 2024 is encouraging, as Penix can throw
the deep ball. Last year’s numbers were a significant improvement
over his last two years in Chicago, posting 106/64/992/5. But
recent news has me “recalculating,” for last-minute
drafts. On August 20th, the Falcons lost their starting right
tackle, Kaleb McGary, for the season. It’s worse than you
think. McGary has started since 2019, and his back-up is already
out for 6-8 weeks. Right tackle is the blind-side for lefty QB
Penix, who tends to hold the ball a bit longer than he should.
Bijan’s job just got harder, overall scoring could fall
a bit and WR routes just became shorter to reduce sacks.
The Falcons saw something in Penix, and surprised the football
world (especially starting QB Kirk Cousins) when they drafted
him 8th-overall in the 2024 draft. The final three games of his
rookie season, Penix paired 3 TDs with 3 INTs. The Falcons pass
the football on just 53% of their plays, with stud RB Bijan Robinson
leading the ground game. Penix can throw a strong ball downfield,
and in time, that will help WRs Mooney and McCloud keep defenses
honest. You’re unlikely to use Penix in Week 1, even in super-flex
formats. He might be rolling left more frequently, since losing
his top-2 right tackles. If Tampa Bay gets up early, Penix and
the passing game could be tested the entire second half. He is
likely as good at kicking field goals as he is rushing, so assume
zero points on the ground.
DK Metcalf, now Pittsburgh’s WR1 after his trade from Seattle,
brings explosive potential to the 2025 season. In 2024, he posted
1,114 yards and eight touchdowns on 66 receptions, commanding
37.9% of his team’s air yards with a 12.8-yard average depth of
target. His size and speed make him a prime target for Aaron Rodgers,
who now commands the Steelers’ offense. Rodgers has a history
of heavily targeting his top receiver, as seen with Davante Adams
in both Green Bay and most recently with the Jets this past season,
which bodes well for Metcalf’s volume in Pittsburgh’s offense.
However, Week 1 against the New York Jets is a challenging matchup.
The Jets’ defense, anchored by Sauce Gardner, ranks among
the NFL’s best at limiting fantasy points to wide receivers,
often shadowing top threats like Metcalf. While Rodgers’
precision could keep the game close, the Jets’ elite secondary
is likely to restrict Metcalf’s big-play opportunities.
Pittsburgh’s run-heavy scheme under Arthur Smith and Metcalf’s
adjustment to a new team add further risk, making a breakout game
less likely. While his WR1 upside makes him tough to bench, the
matchup suggests caution. He’s a low-end WR2 for Week 1.
Running back Jaylen Warren who is no longer competing with Najee
Harris for touches, now has a whole new battle with rookie backfield-mate
Kaleb Johnson. Johnson doesn’t have quite the draft capital that
Harris did so we should expect that Warren gets the bulk of the
touches at least here in Week 1, making him a decent floor play
who also has the potential for a boom game if he’s able to make
a connection in the passing attack with Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers
has historically targeted his running backs heavily in the passing
game, so there’s some potential for a multi-catch game for Warren.
While rookie running back Kaleb Williams could be the long-term
option in the Pittsburgh offense, history tells us that he’ll
likely play a minimal role here in Week 1. Jaylen Warren has played
well enough to earn himself the “start” as a veteran
and his versatile skill set makes him difficult to pull off the
field. Keep an eye on Johnson’s performance in the opportunities
he’s given as it could give us a better indication of how
he’s used in the future, but he’s a very risky option
in Week 1.
Pittsburgh's secondary ranked among the NFL's toughest against
WRs in 2024, containing both total receptions and big plays. They
made things even more difficult on opposing QBs by adding Jalen
Ramsey this offseason, who is expected to match up frequently
against opposing WR1s like Garrett Wilson.
However, Fields' scrambling ability opens doors for screens and
extended plays. If the offensive line withstands T.J. Watt and
the run game gets going early, Wilson could exploit softer zones
for chunk gains. While this is a difficult on-paper matchup, his
outlook tilts positive thanks to being the only real focal point
in the passing game, making him a strong floor play.
Breece Hall enters Week 1 as the Jets' lead back in an offense
designed to lean on the ground game and set up play-action while
utilizing Hall’s elite pass-catching ability for screens and checkdowns.
Healthy with no reported injuries, Hall is set for a solid workload
but faces committee concerns -- Braelon Allen is expected to take
increased short-yardage and goal-line carries, while Isaiah Davis
may steal change-of-pace reps, potentially capping Hall’s ceiling.
Fields’ mobility could open lanes on designed runs and create
dump-off opportunities, boosting Hall’s floor in half-PPR formats
despite a reduced carry share.
Pittsburgh’s run defense ranked among the NFL’s toughest in 2024,
allowing just 98.7 rushing yards per game and the 10th-fewest
fantasy points to RBs. Their stout front seven, led by T.J. Watt’s
disruptive pressure, often forces mistakes while also limiting
explosive plays. The Jets’ offensive line faces a tall order against
this rebuilt Steelers front. If the line holds and the run game
gains traction early, Hall could exploit gaps for some big gains.
However, this tough matchup favors a reliable floor through receptions
-- which Justin Fields has a history of feeding to his backs --
over a breakout rushing performance, making him a volume-dependent
flex play with limited touchdown upside due to Braelon Allen’s
role.
Justin Fields takes the reins as the Jets' starting QB, leveraging
his dual-threat ability to anchor a run-heavy offense designed
to open play-action opportunities. Reunited with ex-Ohio State
teammate Garrett Wilson and paired with lead back Breece Hall,
Fields is poised for a high-volume role, both passing and rushing.
Fields’ 2023 success with the Bears -- elevating D.J. Moore to
career highs -- suggests potential to make Wilson a focal point,
but the backfield committee of Hall, Braelon Allen, and Isaiah
Davis may lead the team to limit designed QB runs to preserve
Fields’ health. Still, Fields’ scrambling ability and screen-game
usage should maintain a solid fantasy floor.
Pittsburgh’s defense was one of the NFL’s stingiest
in 2024, allowing just 98.7 rushing yards per game and T.J. Watt’s
relentless disruption caused plenty of issues for opposing QBs.
Their secondary, bolstered by Jalen Ramsey, clamps down on quick
passes, potentially forcing Fields into extended plays or checkdowns.
The Jets’ compromised O-line, missing Alijah Vera-Tucker,
faces a steep challenge against this front, which will likely
limit deep shots. If the run game with Hall and Allen gains early
traction, that could open things up for Fields to exploit play-action
and bootlegs for chunk plays or rushing yards. However, this tough
matchup -- in Fields’ first game as a Steeler -- leans toward
a modest floor via scrambles and short passes, making him a risky
QB1 play but a solid QB2.
I’m not high on the Dolphins in 2025, and WR Tyreek Hill (age
31, wrist surgeries) sits atop my own do-not-draft list. Waddle
(age 26, healthy) should exceed lowered expectations coming off
a down year, assuming Tua can stay healthy. With one-season wonder,
TE Jonnu Smith, now in Pittsburgh, his atypical 112 targets from
2024 are literally up for grabs. Tagovailoa will go out of his
way in Week 1 to find Waddle, Achane and even newcomer WR Nick
Westbrook-Ikhine, considering the ongoing feud he and his teammates/staff
have with Hill.
I smell a slight upset in Indiana. The Fins should limit RB Jonathan
Taylor, and win the turnover battle. The Colts are projected to
win 7.5 games in 2025, and with Miami’s defense focused on Taylor,
I’m not sure this is one of them. I’ll take a mediocre pass defense
against Daniel Jones’ 70/47 career TD/INT ratio, especially considering
he only got half of the snaps in camp.
Tua has been “effective” as a starter, and has averaged
21 fantasy points/game over the last three years. The obvious
issue is his injury history, specifically concussions. You likely
won’t need him in Week 1, but if you’re building a
super-flex roster, you could do worse than Tagovailoa against
the ineffective Colts. He is healthy and has offensive weapons.
Tua also benefits from Achane turning a random 3-yard check down
into an 18-yard gain.
It's completely understandable if you start the Cheetah against
Indy. An elite athlete with speed is an early target of every
fantasy GM, but “Tyreek 2025” feels different to me. Hill had
off-season surgeries to repair his wrist, bad behaviors late in
2024 rubbed coaches and teammates the wrong way and last year
he wasn’t nearly as productive as previous efforts. There have
been trade rumors, too. It’s entirely possible the wrist injury,
sustained in a joint practice with the Commanders during training
camp last year, impacted his entire campaign. With his QB healthy,
the ever-dangerous Achane demanding attention and the Dolphins
passing on 57% of their plays, Tyreek could post top-14 WR numbers
in Indianapolis. Don’t let my negative vibes put you off Hill.
Update: Waller
had a setback Thursday and has been ruled Out.
Drafted in 2015, and making his first NFL appearance since the
2023 season (1 total TD), Waller comes out of retirement to start
at tight end for the Dolphins. Is there a tight end shortage of
which I’m not aware? Week 1 could have been much worse for
Waller -- it could’ve been outside in Miami’s heat,
instead of indoors, against weak TE coverage. But never underestimate
GM/HC egos. They’ll likely force him 3-4 targets, since
they don’t want a goose-egg at the position after letting
Jonnu Smith, TE4 in 2024, run the seam all the way to Pittsburgh.
Ollie is a great “out-of-nowhere” story with some
solid preseason moments against backups, but let’s not get
carried away when building your first lineup of the season. This
21-year-old thumper, 6’2” and 225 pounds, could post
a rushing stat line of 6/19/3 in some game this season. I’m
not expecting it this week, although RB Jalen Wright is out a
few weeks, following a medical procedure.
Considered the top-TE in the draft class, the Colts we thrilled
to land the John Mackey Award winner at 14th-overall. In his final
season at Penn State, Warren (6’5”, 256 pounds) caught
104 passes for 1,233 yards. It gets so much better -- he had 8
touchdowns receiving, 4 rushing, and threw a TD pass! The Colts
haven’t featured the tight end position in a few years,
but that changes on Sunday, September 7th.
QB Anthony Richardson never had a chance, once HC Shane Steichen
said “consistency” would be the ultimate factor in the Colts QB
competition. Just because Daniel Jones won that duel is no reason
for him to represent your fantasy team in Week 1. Indianapolis
will throw a bit this week because of RB Jonathan Taylor’s tough
match-up, but sheer volume does not guarantee success. I see mostly
short routes for Indianapolis receivers in this game, which could
lead to a “whopper” for Warren.
Josh Downs strained his right hamstring in a joint practice with
Green Bay, but appears to be ready. During September 2024, QB
Jones connected on 2 of 14 (14.3%) passes beyond 20 yards. Not
a good combination for this receiver -- don’t overreach.
Pittman can beat Miami’s DBs on 70% of his routes, but
I’m skeptical about accurate mid/deep throws from Jones.
Pittman’s back is much better, so I see a near-equal division
of short receptions among active wide receivers.
Considering the Colts QBs, you likely didn’t target Pierce,
except in Best Ball. He did have extended playing time and 7 TDs
last season, following injuries to other receivers. But there’s
no Week 1 roster management involved here, considering the lack
of accuracy on Jones’ deep throws. Keep him on a watch list,
in case the Indianapolis passing game begins to click in the coming
weeks.
Tetairoa McMillan, drafted 8th-overall, amassed a 34% target
share last season for the Arizona Wildcats. He had been learning
alongside veteran Adam Thielen in camp, and has a 3-5” height
advantage on Jaguars defenders. T-Mac will be targeted early and
often, but faces coverage rolling in his direction. It’s not a
stretch to forecast 7 catches in his debut, with Thielen (MIN)
off the roster. His presence will boost the entire Carolina offense
in 2025.
Young has looked overwhelmed for much of his first two years.
But toward the end of last season, he was finally in QB2 territory.
You didn’t draft him to start in Week 1, but fantasy GMs
are understandably excited about having the 6’4”,
219-pound McMillan in his huddle. This Jaguars defense will offer
some exploitable match-ups, and I’m curious to see if Young
can take advantage at all levels of the field.
Legette finished his disappointing rookie season 84/49/497/4,
with 8 drops. The Panthers were so “impressed,” they drafted McMillan
about an hour into the 2025 draft! I’m still trying to make sense
of Legette’s 2.30 yards-after-catch. The dude stands 2.08 yards
(6’3”) tall. Yes, sub-par pass placement factors in -- so does
falling forward. But in late August he became Carolina’s defacto
WR2, so he has moved up from “Fade” to “On the Fence” for Week
1. Trading away Thielen, might indicate Legette has shown the
coaches something in his second camp. Jalen Coker landed on IR
(4-games), so WR3 duties will fall to a rotation of David Moore,
Jimmy Horn Jr. and re-signed Hunter Renfrow.
Sanders will likely start, with Tommy Tremble coming off the
PUP list two weeks ago. TE Targets are unusual in Carolina, but
with WR2 Adam Thielen unexpectedly in Minneapolis, Sanders could
see a couple of short targets. The JAX-D has trouble covering
TEs last season (10th-most FPts allowed), but stick with your
starter.
I’ll consider starting an amazing athlete against mediocre
coverage, in a game with the o/u set at 46.5 points. If QB Trevor
Lawrence sported a career-completion percentage higher than 63.3%
(Justin Fields hit 65.8% in 2024), Hunter would be a “No
Brainer.” In Week 1, I believe offensive-minded Liam Coen
and the team who moved up to get Hunter in the draft, will give
him every chance to hit 5/50/1.
I doubt many folks will start T-Law in Week 1, but he has a chance
to exceed (low) expectations. The first thing HC Liam Coen will
adjust is the depth of his throws. Shorter passes will bump his
overall completion percentage, get the ball quickly to his playmakers
and sustain drives. The addition of Hunter (4.40 in his draft-day
forty), gives him another receiver who can turn a 6-yard cross
into a 20-yard gain. Fellow-rookie Bhayshul Tuten can, too. His
40-yard dash, timed at 4.32 seconds, and 40.5” vertical
jump each ranked 1st among 31 running backs at the combine.
You’ll need a three-sided coin to decide which Jaguars
RB will get you the most points this week. Training camp did nothing
to clarify their usage, and the fantasy-fallout provides the worst
RBBC this side of Dallas. I’m in the minority, thinking
Bigsby’s touchdown potential gives him an edge (over the
course of the season). Many analysts are sticking with Etienne,
as a capable RB with receiving skills. Others are enthusiastic
about Tuten’s speed and upside. The good news is that Jacksonville
RBs have the best Week-1 matchup in the NFL. The bad news is those
points are going to be split 2-1/2 ways, and nobody can tell you
with any certainty who gets the “half.”
Pulling a Dolphins-like TE reset, the Jags allowed Evan Engram
to join the Broncos. Strange becomes the starter, after filling-in
for Engram (hamstring, then shoulder surgery) during 2024. HC
Coen doesn’t feature the TE position, but WR injuries would give
Strange more opportunities, as they did for Cade Otton last season
in Tampa Bay.
Typically, breakout running backs don’t find their names in fantasy
football articles about why they’re bound to lose touches to a
rookie mid-round running back the following year, but that’s exactly
what we have this season with the Giants’ Tyrone Tracy. Week 1
will reveal the Giants’ trust in Tracy after his 1,100-total-yard
2024 season, but he’ll need to outshine Cam Skattebo and improve
on his Week 9 performance against Washington last year, when he
managed 66 yards on 16 carries with one catch and no touchdowns.
The Giants’ offensive line and quarterback play are poised to
improve from 2024, boosting optimism for Tracy’s outlook. With
Russell Wilson now leading the Giants’ offense, enhanced passing
efficiency should create more opportunities for Tracy in both
the receiving game and crucial red-zone carries. Despite some
risk, Tracy offers a relatively safe floor with significant Week
1 volume compared to other backfield options league-wide, making
him a solid RB2.
While Cam Skattebo’s dynasty value or potential role a
month from now could spark a different discussion, fantasy managers
should temper expectations for the fourth-round rookie in Week
1, as he’s likely to see limited touches behind Tracy.
Skattebo missed much of training camp with an injury and is currently
listed not only behind Tracy, but also Devin Singletary, on the
Giants’ official depth chart. That alone doesn’t necessarily mean
that Skattebo won’t be utilized here in Week 1, but it does mean
that we can’t trust him in our fantasy lineups until we see a
change in the situation.
Aside from quarterback Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin might be
the only piece in the Washington offense that we can have any
sort of confidence in heading into Week 1. McLaurin has been long-established
as the top passing game option in Washington and even with the
offseason acquisition of Deebo Samuel, he is still in line to
lead the team in every passing game statistic that matters for
fantasy purposes.
While McLaurin did struggle against the Giants in the two games
he played against them in 2024 (6-22-0, 2-19-2), he did manage
to get into the end zone twice in Week 9 when they last played,
so there’s no reason to press the panic button on him just
based on the matchup.
The Commanders’ backfield has been the talk of the fantasy world
over the past few weeks since the team was rumored to be moving
Brian Robinson Jr. -- and then they went ahead and did it. This
immediately led to massive speculation that the team had elevated
rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt into the starting role. However,
we’ve found out that not only is that not the case, but the backfield
may be as crowded as three, four, or even five heads.
Jeremy McNichols, Chris Rodriguez Jr., Jacory Croskey-Merritt,
and even Deebo Samuel could all see backfield snaps here in Week
1. But as expected, veteran Austin Ekeler leads the depth chart.
He’s not projected to see a traditional “starter” level of carries,
he should play the majority of passing downs and there’s plenty
of reason to believe that he’ll lead the team in total snaps at
the position, making him both the highest floor and highest ceiling
option in the bunch.
This situation is disgustingly crowded and very difficult to
predict so it’s probably best to avoid it entirely, but
if you have to go with one then it should probably be Ekeler --
at least for now.
The player with the most exciting profile in the Washington backfield
is definitely rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt, but the problem is
that he’s stuck at the bottom of the depth chart and will
likely need to play himself into a bigger role as the season goes
on. Veteran coaches like Dan Quinn tend to prefer veteran players
who they’ve seen on the field under the bright lights and
that doesn’t bode well for Croskey-Merritt in Week 1.
Don’t be surprised if “Bill” sees snaps on
just a drive or two in this one. We just have to hope that he
does something special with one of those touches that could justify
him being given a bigger role heading into Week 2.
Murray has a wide range of outcomes but this game feels like
a good spot with the Cardinals favored by 6.5 points. He’s rushing
only 4-5 times each game, but he did post 572 yards with 5 TDs
on the ground last season. The Saints’ defense doesn’t scare anyone,
and QB Spencer Rattler gets the start, meaning Murray could see
70+ offensive plays in the Caesars Superdome, and should finish
the week a top-14 QB. If he runs one in, he could be QB9 to start
the year.
Mighty Marvin had a so-so rookie season, with 116/62/885/8 for
198.5 fantasy points (WR30). It wasn’t awful, but expectations
for him were sky-high heading into last season. Fellow-rookies
Ladd McConkey, Malik Nabors and Brian Thomas Jr separated themselves
from Harrison by 40, 73 and 82 fantasy points, respectively. Among
Saints defenders, only 5’11” Kool-Aid McKinstry has a shot to
contain him (6’4”). The Cardinals will scheme Harrison open, and
toward (notably) less-talented coverage. His forecast inside the
dome calls for mid-double-digit fantasy points.
Chad Ryland doesn’t pop into your head as a K1, and I get
that. Only a few of his cousins drafted him in fantasy. However,
he could be a sneaky start, with a very-low ownership number.
I sense most of this game being played on the Saints’ half
of the field, and 12-14 (coveted) kicker points are a possibility.
Wilson has been stuck in WR5 territory his first two seasons
in the league, averaging 556 yards and 3.5 TDs per and we’ve
got no indication his role is changing. So, barring an in-game
injury, don’t expect many opportunities for Wilson, Greg
Dortch or Zay Jones.
Listed above, are all the players whose entire Week 1 success
in isn’t directly tied to QB Spencer Rattler. Admit it,
you’d have the same list for this game.
At the end of the 2024 season, Kamara finished ahead of expectations
as RB9, due in large part to injuries at quarterback and wide
receiver. Drafting him in 2024 paid dividends, with 950 rushing
yards, 543 receiving and 8 total TDs. Enter new HC Kellen Moore,
a new staff and sophomore QB Rattler as the starter (Derek Carr
retired 2 weeks after the NFL draft). A top-20 season in a rebuilding
year could prove challenging for the 30-year-old Kamara as the
Saints are expected to win only 5-6 games. The fantasy community
is generally expecting fewer carries/yards/TDs, but a slight uptick
in receptions as (either) Saints quarterback looks for short completions.
I see that playing out in Week 1. Against softer defenses, like
Arizona, Kamara should match expectations. Tougher matchups will
see 8 defenders and 16 eyes on AK until the QB situation and the
new offensive system stabilize.
The Saints won only five games in 2024 -- Olave played eight
games, Shaheed managed six. Hopefully 2025 features this talented
duo for all 17, but matching that humble five-win total is certainly
in play. I’m being generous keeping these WRs out of the
“Fade” category, to start the Rattler/Shough show.
Olave is a fluid, top-12 talent at the position with soft hands,
and Shaheed’s game is all about the deep ball (17.5 yards
per reception in 2024).
I see three things working in favor of these receivers in Week
1 and beyond: (1) Kellen Moore knows which (few) Saints are his
playmakers, (2) the 2025 Saints will be playing from behind, almost
as much as the Cleveland Browns and (3) defenses will be more
concerned with Kamara, than Rattler’s passing game. Olave
and Shaheed, when healthy, will hold up their end of the bargain.
Johnson is an underrated TE who delivers when his number is called.
Finishing 2024 squarely in TE2 territory, JJs biggest limiting
factor was playing alongside “TE” Taysom Hill for 8 games last
season. Hill remains out for Week 1, and maybe all of 2025. Johnson
will repeatedly find an opening 5-yards downfield, and could become
Rattler’s second-best friend to start the season.
Derek Carr missed seven games in 2024, so we got a preview of
the Rattler. It wasn’t great. We currently have him ranked
as QB35, meaning 3 non-starting QBs will likely beat his fantasy
numbers by year’s end. Against the Cardinals, there will
be several chances for success. That’s where the good news
stops in Week 1. The likelihood of those opportunities coinciding
with NFL-quality execution on his part will be the exception,
not the rule. It will be a “decent” day if he tosses
200 yards and a touchdown, with only 1 interception. A success
would be enabling Olave and Shaheed a combined 8 receptions, and
Kamara and Johnson another 10. The reality could be closer to
180/1/2, with 3 sacks and 4 pre-snap penalties, learning his second
system in as many seasons.
Cincinnati is unique to an extent in fantasy terms because it’s
truly an offense built around four players: an MVP caliber quarterback,
a workhorse back, and two top-level receivers. In 2024, the trio
of Brown, Chase, and Higgins accounted for 4,001 of the team’s
6,291 yards -- that’s almost 64%, and it could be more this year
as Zack Moss was the lead back for the first month of last season.
All of which is to say, when four players are such focal points
offensively, there are limited chances for everyone else. Gesicki
is probably the next-best bet. He finished third on the club in
receiving last year (65-665-2) and was a bigger part of the offense
as the season wore on, which included 18 catches in the final
two games. The Bengals handed him a new three-year deal back in
March, and he’s likely to be the No. 3 option in the passing game.
He managed just three catches for 16 yards in two games with Cleveland
last year, though, and feels like a stretch as a starting tight
end this weekend.
Iosivas effectively took over for Tyler Boyd as WR3 for the Bengals
last season, and the Princeton product had his moments, finishing
the season with 479 yards and 6 TDs. He caught just 36 passes
in 17 games, however, and his ability to contribute at even a
marginal level for owners hinged on whether he reached the end
zone in a given week or not. Iosivas could have some appeal throughout
the year based on a variety of factors, but with all 32 teams
in action and most players healthy to start the year this doesn’t
look like one of those weeks.
Cleveland’s backfield is a mess. Nick Chubb left in free agency.
Quinshon Judkins, the team’s second-round pick, is the only player
from the 2025 draft that remains unsigned, and it’s unclear when
he’ll debut for the club. That leaves fourth-round pick Dylan
Sampson and Ford, the team’s leading rusher last season. That
sounds more impressive than it is as Ford registered a pedestrian
565 yards on the ground, and even when he was the “starter” last
year, the Browns never gave him more than a dozen carries in a
game. So, where does that leave Ford for Week 1? Well, he appears
to be their best option, but that’s never convinced the team to
give him a full-time load. As an RB3 or flex, Ford might deliver
a decent return on investment.
This is a tough one. If we rewind to 2023, Flacco averaged 321
yards, 2.3 TDs, and 1.7 INTs per game during a six-start stretch
for the Browns. Last year with the Colts, those numbers fell across
the board to 252 yards, 1.7 TD, and 1 INT per outing. Flacco has
Jeudy and Njoku, but beyond that this is a suspect group. We already
touched on the running back room, and at receiver we’re looking
at Cedric Tillman, who had one good three-game stretch in his
career, and Jamari Thrash. While Flacco is capable of putting
up decent numbers, he’s also capable of having mistakes snowball.
Ashton Jeanty enters Week 1 as the Las Vegas Raiders’ presumed
lead running back, drafted sixth overall in 2025 to anchor a run-heavy
offense under coach Pete Carroll and OC Chip Kelly. Jeanty’s explosive
burst, vision, and pass-catching ability make him a three-down
workhorse in a backfield where Zamir White and Dylan Laube are
expected to see limited roles, with Raheem Mostert filling in
on third downs. Jeanty’s pass protection has also earned the coaches’
trust, positioning him for a strong PPR floor.
The Patriots’ run defense ranked eighth-worst in PPR fantasy
points allowed to RBs in 2024, conceding 24.6 points per game.
Their front seven remains vulnerable to dynamic backs in space
and Jeanty’s 7.0 college yards per carry could exploit their
subpar run-stopping unit. If the Raiders’ O-line establishes
early control and the game script favors the run, Jeanty could
rack up some serious production in his NFL debut. Even with New
England potentially stacking the box, this matchup favors a high
PPR floor and ceiling, making him a must-start RB1 with minimal
committee concerns.
Despite a trade request over a contract dispute, Jakobi Meyers
enters Week 1 as the Las Vegas Raiders’ clear WR1, cemented by
Amari Cooper’s surprise retirement on Thursday. With a thin receiving
corps featuring just Tre Tucker along with rookies Dont’e Thornton
Jr. and Jack Bech, Meyers is set for a high target share in a
run-heavy offense led by QB Geno Smith under OC Chip Kelly.
The Patriots’ pass defense was average in 2024, ranking
21st in PPR fantasy points allowed to WRs, conceding 32.5 points
per game, 2,494 receiving yards, and 204 receptions to WRs. They
often allowed short completions, aligning perfectly with Meyers’
short-to-intermediate route-running strength. If New England focuses
on stopping Jeanty’s ground game or TE Brock Bowers, Meyers
could exploit soft zones as Smith’s safety valve. This matchup
looks tailor-made for a high PPR floor with double-digit target
upside, making Meyers a solid WR3/Flex in PPR formats.
With Amari Cooper’s retirement, rookies Donte' Thornton
and Jack Bech, along with Tre Tucker are in line to compete for
scraps in a thin receiving corps alongside TE Brock Bowers and
top WR Jakobi Meyers.
Thornton, a rookie with raw speed, struggles with route polish
and drops. Bech, another rookie, is a possession receiver but
lacks separation skills and is buried on the depth chart. Tucker,
in his third year, offers deep-threat potential but is inconsistent,
with only 47 receptions last season. The committee approach and
limited passing volume cap their ceilings for now, at least until
we see one of them break free from the others and establish themselves
as the unquestioned third option in this passing game.
Drake Maye enters Week 1 poised for a breakout sophomore season
under new coach Mike Vrabel and OC Josh McDaniels. His 2024 rookie
campaign showcased his dual-threat ability 421-2 on the ground
in 13 games). With Stefon Diggs, TreVeyon Henderson, and an upgraded
O-line, Maye's supporting cast is much improved, boosting his
ceiling. His rushing prowess ensures a solid floor and if he can
even turn in league-average passing numbers then he'll almost
certainly be a must-start at QB this season.
The Raiders’ pass defense was porous in 2024, ranking 20th
in points allowed to QBs per, conceding 21.3 FPts per game. Their
middling secondary struggles against dynamic QBs and their pass
rush lacks consistency beyond Maxx Crosby.
If Maye gets the ball out quickly, he can exploit Las Vegas’
soft zones and target Diggs or Demario Douglas. This favorable
matchup, combined with Maye’s mobility and McDaniels’ aggressive
play-calling, makes him a great low-end QB1 streaming option with
sneaky top-five upside this week.
Transitioning to a new offense under OC Josh McDaniels, Stefon
Diggs now finds himself attached to second-year QB Drake Maye
after a 2024 season marred by a late-season knee injury. Now fully
healthy with no reported concerns, Diggs’ elite route-running
should cement him as the unquestioned top target in a receiving
corps alongside Demario Douglas and a cast of other mediocre talents.
His integration into a new system adds slight risk to his ceiling
in his Patriots debut, but the Raiders’ pass defense was
exploitable in 2024.
Their secondary struggles against precise route-runners like
Diggs, especially in zone coverage, but Maxx Crosby’s pass
rush could pressure Maye if the offensive line struggles. Diggs'
upside is somewhere around 8-to-10 targets, but there's also a
relatively low floor, making him a risky but startable option
given his projected target share and health.
The Patriots’ backfield enters Week 1 as a committee, with Rhamondre
Stevenson and rookie TreVeyon Henderson splitting touches under
OC Josh McDaniels who historically favors multi-player backfields.
Stevenson (801-7, 168-1), the veteran, disappointed in 2024, leading
to the Patriots drafting Henderson with a second-round pick. Henderson
brings explosive speed and pass-catching ability but is expected
to ease into a complementary role, potentially handling change-of-pace
and receiving duties to start the season. With Antonio Gibson
as a third option, the split projects roughly 55-40-5 (Stevenson-Henderson-Gibson),
limiting both primary backs’ volume. This crowded backfield, paired
with Maye’s own rushing, caps both players’ immediate fantasy
ceilings.
Despite high hopes for Henderson’s explosiveness long-term,
both should be benched in PPR formats unless you lack viable options,
as the backfield split needs clarity.
Brock Purdy, a top-12 QB in his first two full seasons, is poised
to continue that trend as long as McCaffrey is active and Jauan
Jennings isn’t limited by his “calf injury.”
Despite Seattle allowing the 9th-fewest fantasy points to QBs
in 2024 (15.8 per game), Purdy posted two of their five 20+ point
QB performances, averaging 21 points in his last three starts
against them, making him a solid backend QB1.
Unlike a year ago, running back Christian McCaffrey is truly
set to go for Week 1 of the season… or is he? He popped
up on the injury report Thursday, limited with a calf injury living
up to his reputation as the biggest wild card in all of fantasy
football in 2025. He's a must start if he’s able to suit
up, but follow his practice status on Friday and throughout the
weekend.
After a delayed 2024 due to an armed robbery, Ricky Pearsall
emerged late with 445 yards and 3 touchdowns over 11 starts, including
an 8-141-1 line in Week 17 against the Lions. With Aiyuk out and
Jennings recovering, Pearsall’s breakout potential is real
against a Seahawks defense that allowed the 12th-most fantasy
points to WRs (23.2 per game) in 2024, making him a flex play
with WR2 upside.
After missing camp due to contract disputes and a calf injury,
Jauan Jennings is set for Week 1 but seems disgruntled. He’s
coming off a career-year that still fell short of 1,000 yards
or 80 receptions but it was his best performance over four seasons.
With limited offseason reps, it may be a bit much asking for a
WR2 finish this week but that may change given McCaffrey’s
availability. He’s currently a risky flex better suited
for the bench.
Brian Robinson Jr. isn’t worth starting but should be monitored
closely this weekend; if the 49ers limit McCaffrey’s workload
due to his calf issue, Robinson could step into a prominent role
in a potent offense. The Seahawks allowed 18.5 fantasy points
to RBs (14th-most) in 2024.
In two games against the 49ers last season, Kenneth Walker averaged
44 yards rushing but caught 10 passes and scored in both, averaging
18 touches per game. Facing a 49ers defense that lost several
front-seven members and allowed 4.7 yards per carry in 2024, Walker
is a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside, especially in PPR formats given
his receiving role.
After seeing just 3 targets in each of his final three 2024 regular-season
games and 8 in two postseason games, most analysts have written
off Cooper Kupp, but at 32, his 2024 (100 targets, 700 yards,
6 TDs) mirrors Adam Thielen’s 2022 before a 1,000-yard rebound.
Joining a Seattle offense led by Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kupp faces
a depleted 49ers defense (23.5 WR fantasy points allowed in 2024),
making him a flex-level WR3 with upside if he regains form.
Sam Darnold, coming off a 6th-place fantasy QB finish in 2024
with the Vikings, signed a three-year deal with Seattle but now
operates without Minnesota’s loaded offense or dome environment.
The 49ers allowed 16.8 fantasy points to QBs (10th-fewest) in
2024, and despite their defensive losses, Darnold’s production
is likely to fall between his Jets/Panthers struggles and last
year’s highs, making him a mid-to-high-end QB2 this week.
Ridley is likely to see 8-10 targets weekly, now that first-overall
selection Cam Ward is throwing him the football in 2025. That
volume could start immediately, but what Ridley can do against
elite cornerback Patrick Surtain II remains a question. His opportunity
for heavy targets puts him in the flex conversation, but the likelihood
of a pedestrian line (e.g., 4-5 catches for 50-60 yards, based
on his 2024 average of 13.3 yards per catch) makes him a low-end
WR3 this week.
Despite any coach speak to the contrary, Pollard is likely to
see relatively high volume as Cam Ward gains experience, especially
to keep Denver’s elite front-seven honest. Pollard, like
Ridley, may struggle to produce efficiently against a Broncos
defense that allowed the 7th-fewest fantasy points to RBs in 2024
(16.8 per game), but checkdowns and screens (Pollard had 44 catches
last season) should be abundant, giving him fantasy relevance.
He’s not exciting but remains a flex play as an RB3 in PPR
formats.
It looks to be a cruel end of summer for Cam Ward in Week 1.
The rookie QB starts his NFL career against a stellar Denver defense
that added linebacker Dre Greenlaw (quad) and cornerback Jaire
Alexander in the offseason. This unit, which allowed the fewest
points per drive (1.61) in 2024, has the potential to be one of
the NFL’s all-time greats, and Ward will get a harsh introduction.
With Denver’s top pass rush (39 sack differential), Ward
should be holding a clipboard for your fantasy team on Sunday
-- fade him outside superflex leagues.
Bo Nix enters his second year with veteran safety valve TE Evan
Engram joining an offense that badly needed another target option
alongside Courtland Sutton. The Titans’ defense, while solid,
gave up the 5th-most rushing yards and 3rd-most rushing touchdowns
to quarterbacks in 2024, and Nix, who rushed for 430 yards and
4 touchdowns last season, is built to exploit this. The Broncos
should control field position, and have ample red-zone opportunities,
making Nix a QB1 this week.
Speaking of red-zone action, Courtland Sutton has raked in 18
touchdowns over the last two years, and his 6’4” frame
makes him Denver’s best receiving option near the end zone.
He may share targets with Engram in 2025, but the Titans’
secondary, which allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to WRs (24.2
per game) in 2024, is more favorable to Sutton than to the new
tight end. Sutton is a strong WR2 this week.
The Titans gave up the 10th-most points to running backs last
year, and despite defensive improvements, they’ll be tested by
a Broncos team likely to let Tennessee’s rookie quarterback beat
himself. This bodes well for rookie running back RJ Harvey, who,
even if he doesn’t find success on the ground, is likely to contribute
through the air as Nix checks down when Sutton and company aren’t
open. Harvey may share time with J.K. Dobbins, but his high-end
flex appeal with RB2 upside makes him a strong play.
Tight end Evan Engram is a great fit with Bo Nix, as when healthy,
he can dominate in the short-field area, averaging 4.6 receptions
per game since 2018 (5.8 aDOT) with 114 catches in 2023 and 72%
snap participation in most seasons. He has a good shot to finish
inside the top-12 TEs, but the Titans tied for the 4th-fewest
receptions allowed to the position in 2024 and added linebacker
Cody Barton to bolster middle-field coverage. Engram is a borderline
TE1 for Week 1, best for managers comfortable with a modest ceiling.
While Mims nearly doubled his fantasy output in 2024 with 110
points in 17 games and 6 touchdowns, his route-running remains
limited, and some reps are reserved for returns. The Titans allowed
12 deep touchdowns last season, suiting Mims’ 14.2 average
depth of target, but his low target share (under 15%) and competition
with Sutton, Engram, and Franklin make him an unreliable WR4 in
leagues without return-yardage scoring.
In 2023, Montgomery had 219 carries to 182 for Gibbs. Last year,
that swung to 250 carries for Gibbs and 185 for Montgomery. Do
we see a larger discrepancy in 2025? Time will tell. Montgomery
did see a lot of work in two games against the Packers last season,
logging 39 combined touches for 180 yards and a touchdown. On
the road and with a defense that wants to unleash newly acquired
Micah Parsons, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Lions
try to control the game physically -- remember that Green Bay
gave up their top interior DL, Kenny Clark, in that trade. Still,
deploying Montgomery as more than an RB3 feels like a risk.
Although the Lions have won three straight games in Green Bay,
Goff’s output has been mediocre at best, averaging just
193 yards passing with 2 total TD passes across those three outings.
As noted above, the Packers just made a move for Parsons to bolster
their pass rush, but after he missed all of camp in a contract
dispute with the Cowboys, they’ll likely need to pick their
spots with the former All-Pro. Of course, the best way to neutralize
Parsons to stay ahead of the chains, and that could mean a lot
of running or short passes. We’re also about to see Goff
without Ben Johnson for the first time in several years, which
is another interesting subplot. Add it all up, and Goff seems
like someone to avoid in the opener.
In terms of talent, Kraft looks to be on the cusp of being viewed
as a top tight end. That doesn’t always equate to fantasy
value, though, and that’s where things get a little dicey
(and it’s the reason he’s not a no-brainer). Despite
a number of capable pass catchers, the Packers leaned on the run
a lot in 2024, which meant limited opportunities for the wideouts
and tight ends. To that end, Kraft saw more than five targets
just four times last year. One of those came against the Lions,
and he finished 2024 with seven catches (on 11 targets) for 75
yards and a score in two meetings. With some injury concerns at
receiver, this could be a game where Kraft is heavily involved.
The first receiver taken in Round 1 by the Packers since Javon
Walker in 2002, Golden drew loads of praise from the team’s beat
writers. He reportedly looked like the team’s most talented wideout
and, in particular, his hands stood out. There’s even been talk
(and predictions) from those same writers about Golden winning
the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, so the hype is out there.
Now, it’s time to deliver. Golden and Romeo Doubs have been the
only two consistently healthy wideouts among the team’s top five
with Jayden Reed battling a foot injury and Christian Watson (knee)
on the PUP. If you’re seeking an upside play from your WR3 slot,
Golden is intriguing.
While acknowledging that Love played basically the entire 2024
season compromised by a Week 1 knee injury, his numbers against
the Lions were uninspiring. In two games (both losses), Love passed
for 479 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT -- of the five TDs the Packers
scored against Detroit last year, four came on the ground. The
team invested in bolstering the interior of their offensive line
during the offseason, and we know Matt LaFleur likes to run the
football. The Lions could also dust off some new looks defensively
after replacing coordinator Aaron Glenn. It figures to be a bit
of a chess match, and recent history portends a lot of Jacobs
for Week 1.
Chubb looked sharp with his cuts and broke multiple tackles during
his 2025 preseason, earning praise from head coach DeMeco Ryans.
He’s got significant upside if he can be 90% of his pre-injury
self, and could run away with the starting role while Joe Mixon
is sidelined with a mysterious foot injury. He’ll face a Rams
defense that allowed 4.7 yards per carry and 19.1 fantasy points
to RBs (12th-most) in 2024 making Chubb is a strong flex play
with potential for 15+ touches.
Jayden Higgins is built for big plays and red-zone production
but isn’t a lock for significant targets outside of downfield
and end-zone looks when Christian Kirk (hamstring) is healthy.
With Kirk missing this game, Higgins could see a boosted role
(15-20% target share) against a Rams secondary that allowed 23.8
fantasy points to WRs in 2024, making him a flex-level WR3 option
for Week 1.
After a disappointing 2024 season (3,727 yards, 20 TDs) marred
by offensive line struggles and injuries to Tank Dell and Stefon
Diggs, Stroud faces a tough Week 1 test. New addition Jayden Higgins,
alongside Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz, offer hope, but a revamped
offensive line still adjusting and a well-coached Rams defense
(allowed 18.2 QB fantasy points per game in 2024) make Stroud
a fade -- sit him until the line and Higgins gel in regular-season
action.
While the Texans have a strong defense, Derek Stingley Jr. can
only cover one receiver, and with Puka Nacua drawing attention,
Davante Adams should face less coverage than a player of his caliber
typically sees. Now 32, Adams delivered 1,000+ yards in 2024 and
has a competent quarterback in Matthew Stafford as long as his
back holds up. With 103 career receiving touchdowns and the Rams’
potent offense, Adams is a WR2 until proven otherwise.
Matthew Stafford finished 30th in fantasy points per game among
quarterbacks with at least four games played in 2024, despite
a 6.6 ANY/A, 94 passer rating, 7.3 yards per attempt, 8 interceptions,
and 28 sacks. The Rams’ run-heavy approach (519 pass attempts
over 15.5 games in 2023-2024) may shift with the Davante Adams’
addition, and against Houston’s stiff run defense (4.5 yards
per carry allowed), a fresh Stafford could see increased attempts,
making him a QB2 with QB1 upside despite no rushing production
(41 yards, 0 TDs in 2024).
While there have been some questions about drop offs in Kyren
William’s statistical efficiency among the fantasy football
community, there’s been no indications that the Rams are
looking to create a committee, let alone look another direction
in 2025. As it stands, especially against the Texans run defense,
no other Rams back should be fired up at this time, even in deeper
leagues.
Mark Andrews heads into Week 1 as the Baltimore Ravens’ sole
top tight end, set to capitalize on a favorable role with Isaiah
Likely (foot)) sidelined. Andrews himself is healthy after a 2024
season where he scored a career-high 11 TDs, and is Lamar Jackson’s
go-to target, especially in the red zone.
His playoff performance against the Bills last year (5 catches,
61 yards, but a costly fumble and dropped two-point conversion)
showed he can produce against them despite the miscues. With Likely
out and Zay Flowers nursing a knee injury, Andrews should see
increased snaps and targets in a potential shootout, boosting
his PPR floor and ceiling.
The Bills’ pass defense was average in 2024, ranking 16th
in PPR fantasy points allowed to TEs, conceding 12.0 points per
game. Their secondary, despite adding depth, struggles against
versatile tight ends like Andrews, who exploits seams and physically
dominates in the end zone. This matchup makes Andrews a must-start
TE1 in PPR formats.
Zay Flowers enters Week 1 as the Baltimore Ravens clear WR1.
Coming off a 2024 season with 74 catches, 1,059 yards, and four
TDs, Flowers is the primary target, especially with TE Isaiah
Likely out (foot injury) and Mark Andrews drawing coverage. Rashod
Bateman and rookie Devontez Walker are secondary options, ensuring
Flowers sees eight-to-10 targets. His shifty route-running and
YAC secure a reliable PPR floor, making him a low-upside, high-floor
play and on the right side of the fence in Week 1.
DeAndre Hopkins enters Week 1 as a depth receiver for the Ravens,
following a 2024 season split between the Titans and Chiefs. At
33, he’s well past his prime and he's competing with at
least two receivers ahead of him on the depth chart as well as
Mark Andrews at tight end. With Isaiah Likely out, Hopkins may
see a slight uptick in targets, but his diminished speed and contested-catch
ability limit him to a low-upside PPR flex option, despite his
name recognition.
Khalil Shakir steps into Week 1 as a pivotal slot receiver for
the Buffalo Bills, thriving in Josh Allen’s pass-heavy offense.
His 2024 season included a strong showing versus Baltimore, with
10 catches for 129 yards across two games (including playoffs).
While rookie Keon Coleman may have higher long-term upside, Shakir’s
high catch rate and short-area quickness secure a reliable PPR
floor. He does, however, lack the high-score potential to become
a real difference-maker most weeks.
Dalton Kincaid serves a key pass-catching role for the Bills,
but he certainly struggled to live up to expectations a year ago.
Kincaid was one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy football
and while he's still young, it's worth noting that he struggled
against Baltimore, managing just six catches for 58 yards across
two games (including playoffs).
Competing with Khalil Shakir and rookie Keon Coleman for targets
in a crowded offense, isn’t great for his fantasy outlook,
and he's also limited by a minimal red-zone role. This dynamic
makes him a fade in PPR formats, lacking the upside for a confident
start until we see him get back to the kind of player we saw in
his rookie season.
Last season went about as well as it could have possibly gone
for Jones, who appeared in every game for just the third time
in eight seasons and wound up setting career highs in carries
(255) and rushing yards (1,138). The veteran is entering his age-31
season, though, and the team clearly wants to lighten his load,
which is why they traded for Mason after getting little from Cam
Akers in 2024. Mason led the 49ers in rushing last year, racking
up 789 yards on 153 carries (5.2 YPC) in 12 games. Look for him
to push into more of a timeshare role with Jones this year, which
is something that the Packers did with the latter throughout his
seven seasons in Green Bay. Don’t be afraid to use the new
arrival as a flex/RB3 this Monday night.
On the Fence: WR Adam Theilen
Back with the Vikings after a two-year stint in Carolina, Thielen
is well past his prime. He was limited to 10 games last season
due to injury, and at this stage of his career he’s little more
than a reliable possession receiver. That doesn’t mean the 35-year-old
can’t contribute, especially early on while the team tries to
weather Jordan Addison’s three-game suspension. He should function
as a security blanket of sorts for first-time starting QB J.J.
McCarthy, and that might be especially valuable Monday night
as the Bears did a nice job of defending Jefferson last year,
meaning the Vikings could be looking for someone to step up. While
not a safe selection, Thielen has a shot at low-end No. 3 value,
particularly in point-per-reception formats.
No matter how good you look in practice or the preseason, you
can’t simulate full-speed NFL football. The Bears will have
had weeks to draw up a game plan for the first-time starter, and
there’s no way of knowing just how much head coach Kevin
O’Connell will keep the training wheels on McCarthy, whose
first career start will come on the road against a divisional
opponent in prime time. No pressure. Could McCarthy hit the ground
running and put up big numbers? Sure, the Bears aren’t an
elite defense. Is it worth risking him in your lineup? Probably
not.
Inconsistent as a rookie, Odunze drew praise throughout the preseason
for elevating his game and displaying a burgeoning chemistry with
Caleb Williams. It’s led to speculation that the second-year wideout
might be ready to become the true go-to receiver in the passing
game ahead of Moore. We might start to get a read on that situation
against the Vikings, but even last year he got a lot of opportunities
against Minnesota, being targeted 17 times in their two meetings.
While there’s still room for pessimism with Odunze and the Bears
offense, there’s plenty of reasons for optimism as well, so if
you feel like rolling the dice on a high-upside option in Week
1, Odunze fits the bill.
Even the most ardent Bears supporter would have a hard time classifying
Williams’ debut season as anything other than a mixed bag.
The then-rookie held onto the ball too long and took too many
sacks, and though he avoided the big mistakes (only six INTs)
he lagged behind QBs drafted after him like Jayden Daniels and
Bo Nix. The hiring of Ben Johnson as head coach was due in no
small measure to the team’s desire to develop Williams.
Will it work? We’re about to start finding out. Williams
played well in two losses to the Vikings last year, posting 531
yards and 3 TDs, but Minnesota is a tough opponent with a creative
defensive play caller.
Drafted 10th overall back in April, Loveland has leapfrogged
steady but unspectacular Cole Kmet to take over as the starting
tight end. It’s easy to see the vision and proclaim that
Loveland will step in and deliver as a rookie the same way Sam
LaPorta did for Johnson in Detroit when he posted an 86-889-10
line. Let’s calm down. LaPorta didn’t have a backup
the caliber of Kmet in Motown, and Jared Goff had seven seasons
under his belt, including one with Johnson calling the plays.
Loveland absolutely offers TE1 upside this year. It just could
be more prudent to wait for him to deliver before inserting him
into your starting lineup.
