Not all industry drafts are created equal. The FFPC
Pros vs. Joes competition is a special one to be a part of,
in part because it attracts some of the best in the fantasy industry
but also because of what is at stake. Six industry analysts (Pros)
compete against six veteran (and usually very successful) FFPC
players (Joes) in a free best-ball competition for the privilege
of gaining a free entry ($1900 value) into the FFPC Main Event
the following season.
The only downside is that it is a winner-takes-all format. If
ever there was a time to cite the immortal Ricky Bobby, Pros vs.
Joes is the ultimate "if you ain't first, you're last"
competition. Pros vs. Joes is the brainchild of Fantasy
Mojo's Darren Armani, who I met for the first time at the
King's Classic in 2018 and have competed with ever since. Darren
beat me in the title game in the inaugural event when he "reached"
for Christian McCaffrey. (Yes, there was a time when drafting
CMC at No. 12 was considered a reach.) I got my title in 2020,
so all is well between Darren and me now. All kidding aside, I
am very appreciative of Darren for inviting me to participate
yet again.
Below is a list of the competitors and the order in which we
drafted. Players without a site affiliation next to their name
are "Joes.”
1. Matt Marcou and Mike Stanowski
2. Josh Hayes - RotoBaller
3. Lou Tranquilli
4. Doug Orth - FFToday
5. William Van Ormer
6. Pat Kerrane - NBC Sports Edge
7. Philip Hooton
8. Dan Williamson - Goat District
9. Jon Hurd
10. Liam Murphy - Fantasy Points
11. Shane Wingard
12. Bob Lung - Big Guy Fantasy
Unlike last year when I focused mostly on my team and rationale,
I thought it would be more helpful if I analyzed what I liked
and disliked about each team this year.
The FFPC uses tight end premium scoring (1.5 points per reception),
so it is common for the elite tight ends (such as Travis Kelce
and Mark Andrews) to come off the board within the first 15 picks.
Most teams have at least one tight end in place by around the
sixth round.
Please click on the draft
board link here so you can follow along. (It beats having
to type out 240 names and/or posting 12 20-man teams on this page.)
1. 28.313 Percent - Matt Marcou and Mike Stanowski
What I like: Taking Christian
McCaffrey No.1 overall requires a bit of faith given his recent
durability issues, but he remains the biggest cheat code in fantasy
football. It is becoming more and more likely that Alvin
Kamara will avoid a suspension this season. While his 80-catch
days with Drew Brees are likely gone for good, he is still a solid
value at RB14. Pairing up a reliable QB1 like Russell
Wilson with the value that Deshaun
Watson could provide if his six-game suspension holds likely
ensures consistently great quarterback production for Matt and
Mike. Cole Kmet
is a popular value pick at tight end given what few options Chicago
has in the passing game.
What I did not like: A healthy McCaffrey tends
to make up for a shortcoming at another position, but this team
has a fair amount of risk attached to it. Even if we assume CMC
stays healthy all season, Kamara could still be suspended later
in the season. Deebo Samuel should be fine as a WR1, but what
if Trey Lance starting at quarterback means less volume for him?
What happens to Marquise Brown once DeAndre Hopkins returns? How
much can we expect from Amari Cooper while Watson is out? If Watson
ends up missing six games, Cooper may only produce one or two
flex-worthy efforts with Jacoby Brissett. If Watson misses something
closer to 12 games, then Cooper could be almost worthless in half
of his games in 2022.
2. RotoBaller - Josh Hayes
What I like: Hayes should be able to go five-deep at receiver
in a league where only have to start two (but can start as many
as four). Keenan Allen may begin to fall off one of these years,
but precise route-runners like him tend to age well. While DK Metcalf is unfortunately tied at the hip to Drew Lock and/or Geno Smith, he is a great flex option who should still be able to deliver
the occasional WR1 week. There is virtually no chance Russell Gage finishes as the WR42, which is where he was drafted here.
He may not be a one-for-one replacement for Antonio Brown, but
he will certainly be more dependable and should finish as a top-35
option. DeVante Parker was a player I was contemplating with my
10th-round pick. Assuming he can stay healthy, he will have his
share of spike weeks and could finish 20 spots higher than his
WR54 draft spot.
What I did not like: Josh likely knew about
Round 10 that tight end was going to be his weak spot, so he did
well to attack it with quantity (four picks devoted to the position)
when the quality started to run out. His problem could end up
being that three of them may end up blocking a lot. The exception
(David Njoku)
will probably end up being the best of the bunch, but he has the
same Deshaun
Watson problem that I mentioned earlier with the first team.
Additionally, Josh's running backs after Leonard
Fournette do not have much of a history of contributing in
the passing game, which means they could fall victim to game script.
Even Fournette is not guaranteed to hold on to the same kind of
work he had in the passing game in 2021.
3. Joe's Head - Lou Tranquilli
What I like: If a team is going to start the draft with three
straight running backs, it had better be the strength of the team.
Getting Jonathan Taylor with the third pick was a gift. Having
Travis Etienne or Nick Chubb as a flex option each week is also
a luxury. Burning a 10th-round pick on a second quarterback probably
was not necessary after spending a fourth-rounder on Lamar Jackson,
but it virtually locks up very good production at the position.
Tranquilli probably has the best tight end room in a tight end
premium format with T.J. Hockenson and Dallas Goedert. It may
seem extreme to spend that kind of draft capital at tight end,
but it is hard to argue about the logic of guaranteeing yourself
a top-eight tight end finish at the position most weeks.
What I did not like: Tranquilli has been around
the fantasy industry for a while, so he does not need me to tell
him that he will need at least two of his three WR3 types (Rashod
Bateman, Chase
Claypool and/or Allen
Lazard) to ascend to WR2 territory. Bateman could do that,
but it seems unlikely Claypool and Lazard will consistently be
able to do the same. There is even a chance both could become
their own team's third-best option at some point. As much as I
love the strength of his running backs, it may not be enough to
make up for the weekly disadvantage he will likely have at receiver.
Speaking of his running backs, he only drafted five. Lou probably
can afford one injury to his Big Three, but Jerick
McKinnon and Jeff
Wilson are weak options even if Kansas City and San Francisco
suffer multiple injuries in the backfield.
4. FFToday - Doug Orth
What I like: There is a distinct possibility
that Justin
Jefferson will be the No. 1 overall player on my Big Boards
next week. (That has yet to be determined, however.) Regardless,
Jefferson was the player I expected (hoped for?) when I found
out my draft slot. What was not expected was landing three receivers
who have top 15 upside with my first four picks. With Chris
Godwin (knee) a question mark to play at his usual level any
time before November, Mike
Evans has a decent chance of being a top-five option over
the first half of the season. As much as I wanted Chubb at 3.04,
Breece Hall
could easily emerge as a clear RB1 option later in the season.
The talent is there, it is just a matter of OC Mike LaFleur making
him the featured back. I do not expect AJ
Dillon to be anything more than the 1B back in Green Bay,
but I do like the blend of his upside and David
Montgomery's likely volume. Zach
Ertz was the last of the no-brainer starters at tight end,
in my opinion, while Tom
Brady was the last of the rock-solid - if not elite - QB1s
available. There is virtually no chance he finishes as the QB12.
What I did not like: The disadvantage of pounding receivers early
is that it usually means a fantasy manager has to roll the dice
at running back. My team lacks the studs that my fantasy teams
usually start every draft with, so I have several "one thing
needs to happen in front of them" options at that position
on my team. The counterpoint is that if fantasy managers are forced
into that spot, they would do well to draft backs who are one
injury away from a likely featured role - as I feel like I did
with Dillon and Isaiah Spiller.
5. Billy's Boys - William Van Ormer
What I like: If any squad in this league can
match the firepower of my top-end receivers, it might be this
team. Ja'Marr
Chase, Tyreek
Hill and Allen
Robinson all have top-15 upside. Van Ormer continued to hammer
upside at receiver with DeVonta
Smith and Brandon
Aiyuk. Top to bottom, this team has the best group of receivers
in this league. It should not come as a surprise if Kyle
Pitts manages to finish as the overall TE1. He would have
been my selection instead of Mike
Evans at 2.09 (given the TE premium nature of this league),
while Gerald
Everett makes a ton of sense as an upside TE2 option.
What I did not like: For as strong as this team
is at receiver and tight end, it is equally weak (or uncertain,
at the very least) at quarterback and running back. J.K.
Dobbins will flash occasional RB1 upside, but he should not
be a fantasy team's RB1 option - especially given he may need
some time to trust his knee completely after such a significant
injury. Antonio
Gibson and Clyde
Edwards-Helaire are dicey regular starting options at best.
I am not sure his dart throws at the position after Kenneth
Gainwell will help him much either. It is also possible Van
Ormer's desire to build up his running back room clouded his judgment
in the eighth round when he passed on Tom
Brady for CEH. A much more high percentage play (with better
upside) would have been taking Brady and coming back with either
Cordarrelle
Patterson or Rhamondre
Stevenson.
6. NBC Sports Edge - Pat Kerrane
What I like: It is rarely ever a bad idea to
lock up Travis
Kelce in a tight end premium league. The advantage Kelce provides
his managers in such leagues may be decreasing as he enters his
age-33 season, but that does not diminish the fact he still provides
a significant edge. Javonte
Williams has top-five upside in his range of outcomes, especially
if reports about the new coaching staff giving him more of the
workload prove correct. The wide receiver trio of Tee
Higgins, Courtland
Sutton and Gabriel
Davis provide major upside given their archetype - bigger
receivers who can win in contested catch situations and have a
prominent role in the red zone. Much like 28.313 Percent and Joe's
Head, very good quarterback production each week should not be
an issue with Kyler
Murray and Jalen
Hurts.
What I did not like:Miles Sanders certainly has RB2 upside,
but that is only if he is used as he was before 2021. Hurts likely
will cap his touchdown upside as he did last year, while Gainwell
likely does the same to his receiving upside. The second flex
spot figures to be an issue until DeAndre Hopkins returns in Week
7. Can Albert Okwuegbunam hold the fort in that spot so this team
does not fall too far behind in the total points race? The logic
of spending sixth- and seventh-round picks at quarterback in a
one-QB league is also questionable. Passing on Hurts for someone
like Kadarius Toney or Tony Pollard and taking a similar option
like Justin Fields or Deshaun Watson rounds later seems like a
more advantageous route to take.
7. Bullseye - Philip Hooton
What I like: Hooten won the FFPC Main Event
in 2020. This draft is proof he knows how to build a winner. Honestly,
I feel as if he applied a similar strategy to NBC Sports Edge
but just executed it better. This team has four clear top receiver
options (Stefon
Diggs, Diontae
Johnson, Brandin
Cooks and Elijah
Moore), an elite option at tight end (Darren
Waller) and another potential one at running back (D'Andre
Swift). This team also hit the sweet spot of balancing upside
(Trey Lance)
with a solid floor (Derek
Carr) at quarterback while not using significant draft capital
to do it. Hooten also did a fine job of landing good running back
depth with solid standalone value in Nyheim
Hines and Michael
Carter. Brian
Robinson Jr. and D'Onta
Foreman could also fit under that description.
What I did not like: This team only has a few minor concerns,
but they could be enough to cost Hooten a title. Waller is in
the odd territory of being a value pick in this format AND a player
who may not be much more valuable than Ertz, who goes about four
rounds later. At receiver, does losing Ben Roethlisberger and
adding George Pickens into the mix significantly hurt Johnson’s
volume? Will Nico Collins take more quality looks from Cooks this
season? Garrett Wilson from Moore? The biggest issue for this
team figures to be Jacobs, who appears as if he will be a committee
back in 2022. This team desperately needs Swift to stay healthy
because it lacks the "one thing needs to happen in front
of them" backs I spoke about on my team to survive a lengthy
absence from him.
8. Goat District - Dan Williamson
What I like: Williamson might have the most complete roster in
this league. Even if Austin Ekeler fails to come close to matching
last season, he should be a low-end RB1 at worst. So long as Saquon Barkley stays healthy, he also has a low-end RB1 floor. George Kittle is about as good as it gets after the first two or three
tight ends are off the board. Justin Herbert may end up being
my overall QB1 this season. Williamson also selected a bunch of
upside at receiver in Jaylen Waddle, Michael Thomas, Kadarius Toney and Treylon Burks. Rhamondre Stevenson also represents a
palatable starting option at running back should Ekeler or Barkley
miss some time.
What I did not like: As I alluded to earlier, there is a lot
to like about this team. My major concern with it is at receiver.
Can Waddle get enough volume in what figures to be a run-heavy
offense with Tyreek Hill around? Can Thomas stay healthy? It is
almost certain he will not have the same kind of massive target
share he is accustomed to now that Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry
are in town. Can Toney stay healthy? That was a problem in 2021.
Even though Burks was drafted to replace A.J. Brown, he cannot
be viewed in the same light. Furthermore, Brown never had someone
as good as Robert Woods across from him to steal looks. There
is a strong possibility Woods ends up leading the Titans in targets.
9. E11Even - Jon Hurd
What I like: Hurd has as good of a 1-2 punch
at running back as anyone in the league with Derrick
Henry and Aaron
Jones. He even has some reasonably good depth at the position
that can serve as flex options in Tony
Pollard and James
Cook. Raheem
Mostert makes for a great dart throw in the 16th round as
the potential early-down option in Miami. Hurd also has arguably
the best fantasy quarterback in Josh
Allen. Robert
Woods should prove to be a steal in the 10th round, while
the combination of Dalton
Schultz and Hunter
Henry should give this team a real chance for a top-10 player
at tight end just about every week.
What I did not like: Hurd did a good job of finding value at
receiver when he took them, but it is a big ask for Amon-Ra St. Brown and Adam Thielen to go toe-to-toe with most of the established
WR1s in the league. I would have preferred to go with Courtland Sutton, Allen Robinson or even Terry McLaurin over Schultz and
pair him with St. Brown and Thielen. My biggest issue with Hurd's
draft may be with taking Schultz when he did. Not only are the
odds against Schultz replicating last season (I don't believe
he is dynamic enough to replace Amari Cooper as the team's second
option), but I highly doubt he offers much more to fantasy managers
this year than T.J. Hockenson or Zach Ertz.
10. FantasyPoints.com - Liam Murphy
What I like:CeeDee
Lamb could easily lead the league in targets this season.
A.J. Brown
is about as good as anyone can hope at a WR2 spot. Mike
Williams provides huge upside as a WR3. Investing only an
eighth- and 13th-round draft choice into the quarterback position
and coming away with Dak
Prescott and Trevor
Lawrence shows Murphy has a good understanding of how much
depth is available at quarterback. Skyy
Moore was a strong consideration for me at 9.04 (I went with
Cordarrelle
Patterson) and could easily lead all Kansas City receivers
in targets this season. Assuming Dawson
Knox can maintain his touchdown efficiency, Murphy should
have tight end on lockdown with Mark
Andrews and Knox in tow.
What I did not like: I'm not sure Murphy's top three receivers
give him anything more than the third-best trio in this league
despite his particular attempt at Zero RB. I believe Darnell Mooney
would have been a much better choice at 5.10 than JuJu Smith-Schuster,
who may not be able to hold off Moore as the team's primary receiver.
Andrews will go in the first or second round of most tight end
premium leagues, but he could easily fall back into the TE5 range
again without the Tyler Huntley bump he got last year. It is one
thing even Elijah Mitchell was guaranteed the kind of workload
he had last season, but there is reason to believe Tyrion Davis-Price
was drafted - to keep Mitchell's floor around 15 to 18 touches.
While Murphy did well to land high-upside backup running backs,
I will probably never be a fan of taking a multi-game hit at one
spot in my weekly lineup in hopes that a handcuff will save me
from a weakness I created for myself on draft day. Maybe Rachaad White or Darrell Henderson carves out some kind of standalone
value while Murphy waits for an injury, but that is a lot to ask
from either player. Drafting two more tight ends after taking
Andrews early and Knox a bit later also seems like a waste of
late-round resources.
11. CEO Squad - Shane Wingard
What I like: Wingard drafted himself a couple of workhorses in
Najee Harris and Joe Mixon. I also have no problem with his decision
to sandwich Patrick Mahomes with four receivers more than capable
of easily attracting 100 targets apiece. I am personally not a
fan of Rashaad Penny again this season, but there is nothing wrong
with having some volume on the bench at running back in case heavy
workloads end up sending Harris and/or Mixon to the repair shop.
Although Wingard did not lock up a high-end tight end, he selected
three (Pat Freiermuth, Noah Fant and Hayden Hurst) that should
give him a fighting chance to hang with the big boys at the position
most weeks.
What I did not like: I only have minor issues with Wingard's
squad. Passing up Dalvin Cook for Harris could end up coming back
to haunt him if Minnesota's desire to get the former more involved
as a receiver ends up sending him into the Jonathan Taylor and
Christian McCaffrey stratosphere of running backs. Penny was a
solid pick for the volume he SHOULD bring; however, his injury
history and lack of contributions in the passing game could make
him a bit of a roster clogger in a best-ball format.
12. Big Guy Fantasy Sports - Bob Lung
What I like:Dalvin
Cook may end up being my RB3 this summer, so landing him at
the 1-2 turn represents good value. Davante
Adams may not have the same kind of upside he did with Aaron
Rodgers in Green Bay, but I would be willing to bet he finishes
better than the overall WR6. Lung did a fine job getting plenty
of upside at quarterback with Joe
Burrow, Jameis
Winston and Ryan
Tannehill; each quarterback has at least two very good options
at receiver. Unlike some in the fantasy community, I believe Ezekiel
Elliott and James
Conner represent good value at the 3-4 turn. Lung's top three
backs all have massive workload and touchdown upside. The selections
of Kareem Hunt,
Kenneth Walker
and Dameon Pierce
further solidify what is already a strong position for Lung and
give him several "one thing needs to happen in front of them"
options.
What I did not like: I am not sure I can justify taking Burrow
at 5.12 when someone like Tom Brady went almost three rounds later.
While I like the value of Elliott and Connor at the 3-4 turn (I
was hoping one of them was going to fall back to me - Elliott
more than Conner - at 4.09), I'm not sure it was the right move
for this team. Especially considering how long Lung waited to
add another receiver after Adams and invest at tight end, I think
it will end up being the wrong move. Chris Godwin could end up
being a huge value as the 29th receiver off the board, but the
possibility exists he will not be his usual self until November
too. While Drake London possesses a ton of upside, can he fill
Godwin's WR2 shoes for the first two months? Lung was the last
manager to invest a pick at tight end. While he did grab some
quality options late, taking four players to fill one position
on a team is questionable roster construction. That is especially
the case when we consider Lung's receiver corps and Godwin's current
injury status.