The craziness that is the 2021 NFL season continued strong in Week
10, with the Browns getting shellacked by the Patriots, the Ravens
losing to the Dolphins, the Cardinals losing to the Panthers, and
the Bucs losing to the Washington Football Team. Oh, and the Lions
didn’t get their first win, but they did tie the Steelers.
The fantasy results were also quite surprising, with many players
disappearing in what looked like good spots, and others outperforming
what we thought was possible. This season has been incredibly
challenging, but if you’re still reading this article, you
know it’s not over. Now is crunch time, and some key moves
can push you over the top and get you into the playoffs. Below
I’ll cover the most important data points for running back,
wide receiver, and tight end, pointing out players to consider
adding, trading for, or moving on from.
Freeman and LeíVeon
Bell again split snaps, 58% to 42%. But Freeman got 14 touches
to Bellís 3, and he looked far better (58 total yards to Bellís
1). With Latavius
Murray likely returning in Week 11, Bell has been released.
played on 61% of snaps and finished with 15 touches, but he
only went for 45 total yards. This offensive line has really
struggled, and Gaskin will need to be more involved in the passing
game to return value. In Week 10 he received only 2 targets
(1-14). Still, heís playing most of the snaps in this backfield.
Patterson was injured in the first quarter (ankle sprain)
and ended up playing only 15 snaps. This seemed to shatter the
Falcons offense, and they finished with only 3 points. Mike
Davis played on only 37%, and it was Wayne
Gallman who took over, finishing with 43% of snaps. It is
hard to know if Gallman played more than Davis only because
the Falcons were getting blown out, but Gallman might be worth
a speculative pick-up in case he leads the backfield while Patterson
is out. Still, the offense has been ugly most weeks, so itís
not an exciting addition.
Elliott and Tony
Pollard split snaps relatively equally, and they both finished
with 17 touches. Pollard remains a nice weekly flex option due
to his involvement, particularly in the passing game (6-56 on
7 targets in Week 10). Elliott is getting the majority of the
early-down work and the goal line work, as well as some receiving
work, so he is a must-start running back every week.
Robinson returned from injury in Week 10 and played on 59%
of snaps. He finished with 12-57-1 on the ground and 4-27 through
the air, so he was quite effective. He is an every-week starter,
even in this poor offense.
Taylor played on 84% of snaps, his highest mark of the season.
played on 28%. Taylor received 27 touches, going for 126 yards
and a score, and Hines got 4 touches, going for 29 yards. Hines
is a desperation running back play and Taylor needs to be started
Chubb and Kareem
Johnson was the workhorse for the Browns. He played on 88%
of snaps and finished 19-99 on the ground and 7-58 through the
air, on 8 targets. He was the lead receiver and rusher for the
team. This was a nice stat line, even though the Browns got
destroyed by the Patriots. Watch the practice reports carefully
to see if Chubb, Hunt, or both will return for Week 11. With
Lions on the docket, whoever gets the most work will be a great
Harris out due to a concussion, it was Rhamondre
Stevenson who stepped in as the starter. He excelled in
the role. On 55% of snaps he went 20-100-2 on the ground, and
interestingly he also received 5 targets, more than Brandon
Bolden (3) and far more than Harris normally gets. He caught
4 of them for 14 yards. Stevenson needs to be rostered everywhere
due to this upside, but you cannot count him as the starter
moving forward. That job still likely belongs to Harris, and
we also have no idea what Belichick will do. For dynasty, you
have to be excited if he is on your roster.
had 3 carries and 3 receptions, for a total of 50 yards and
two scores! Amazingly, he only played on 8 snaps. That type
of ridiculous efficiency will likely not happen again, but then
again Breida might have played himself into more snaps. Zack
Moss played on 48% of snaps and Devin
Singletary on 38%, and both scored on the ground. It is
most likely that the timeshare just got a bit murkier, hurting
the value of everyone.
Carter only played on 52% of snaps, but he dominated the
carries with 16. He finished with 39 yards and a score on the
ground, against a very tough defense. Tevin
Coleman worked back into the rotation and got 4 carries
and 3 targets, and totaled 33 yards on 6 touches. He played
on 22% of snaps. And Ty
Johnson played on 32%, and totaled 7 touches for 38 yards.
The involvement of all three hurts the value of all three, particularly
Carter. Still, he is playing the most snaps and getting the
most touches, making him a nice weekly option.
Swift played on a season-high 93% of snaps. Amazingly, other
backs scored the two rushing touchdowns, on a few of the snaps
he happened to be out of the game. But he was very effective,
taking 33 carries for 130 yards and also catching 3 of 6 targets.
He is a must-start every week he is active.
filling in as the starter for Alvin
Kamara, took on a workhorse role for the Saints. He played
on 85% of snaps and got 14 carries and 7 targets. He finished
with 18 touches and went for over 100 yards and a score. For
as long as Kamara is out, Ingram is a solid weekly option.
The Titans continue to seem unsure of how they want to approach
Henry. For now, itís a fairly equal three-way timeshare.
Foreman played the most snaps (35%), while Jeremy
McNichols saw his snap share fall sharply, to 27%. Foreman
also got the most carries (11), while McNichols got 4 carries.
who played on 33%, got 8 carries. Foreman got 2 targets (2-48)
and McNichols got 3 (1-1). It looks like we could be seeing
a shift toward Foreman as the primary back, but weíll have to
wait and see how it shakes out. He needs to be added in any
leagues where he is on the wire.
Fournette remains heavily involved for the Bucs. He played
on 65% of snaps on Sunday, while Ronald
Jones played only 1 snap. Fournette played 31 total snaps
and got 11 carries (47 yards) and 9 targets (8-45). He needs
to be in lineups every week until something changes in the pecking
Gibson played on 63% of snaps on Sunday and got 24 carries.
He finished with only 64 yards, but scored twice. It is very
hard to trust him because Washington will be trailing so often,
and in losses Gibson can put up very few points. Many expected
to get more action than Gibson in a likely negative game-script
against since the Bucs. The NFL is tough to predict.
McCaffrey played on 59% of snaps, while both Ameer
Abdullah and Chuba
Hubbard played on 21%. Hubbard and Abdullah both got 9 carries
and McCaffrey got 13 carries, but McCaffrey was far more effective,
rushing for 95 yards (7.3 yards/rush). McCaffrey also led the
team with 10 targets and caught them all for 66 yards, showing
again why he has been the No. 1 overall choice in fantasy for
the past couple seasons. Start him with confidence moving forward,
even if Hubbard and Abdullah combine for 40% of snaps again.
Edmonds out, James
Conner played on 82% of snaps. But with the Cardinals struggling
on offense, he only received 13 touches, going for 64 yards
and a score. Even in a bad week, he produced well, meaning he
should be an excellent play when Kyler Murray is back under
Howard got 12 carries for the Eagles on Sunday, going for
83 yards. Boston
Scott got 11 and went for 81 yards, and Scott also caught
two passes for 24 yards. They played on 38% and 31% of snaps,
respectively. With Kenneth
Gainwell working in on 31% of snaps, it is really tough
to trust any of them. Miles
Sanders should be back very soon, muddying the waters even
It took a Melvin
Gordon fumble, but Javonte
Williams finally played more snaps on Sunday (57% to 43%).
Still, they finished with 10 touches each, and about the same
number of yards. This timeshare likely is not going away.
was injured on Sunday and will likely be out the next week or
two. Before he went out he got 11 touches and took them for
86 yards, but then AJ
Dillon entered and stole the show, going for 128 yards and
two scores on 23 touches. Dillon becomes one of the top starting
options over the next two weeks, as he gets the backfield largely
to himself. If youíve been stashing him all season, this is
Williams had an explosion game on Sunday, going 11-43 on
the ground and also catching all 9 of his targets for 101 yards
and a score. It is unclear whether Clyde
Edwards-Helaire will work back into the rotation, take the
job, or take a backseat to Williams. For now, Williams looks
like a solid option.
remained very involved in the passing game on Sunday night,
catching all 5 of his targets for 20 yards. However, he only
got 7 carries (16 yards). With both Kenyan
Drake and Richard working in, none of them make an especially
It looks like Marquise Brown and Rashod Bateman are
the top two receivers for the Ravens moving forward. Brown played
on 75% of snaps and got 13 targets (a 30% target share), going
6-37. Bateman played on 55% of snaps and got 8 targets (a 19%
target share), going 6-80. The fact that Bateman was more productive
is interesting, but probably not noteworthy. Both should be
solid starts the rest of the way, with Brown likely the better
option most weeks. Sammy Watkins is being phased out (32% of
snaps) and can be dropped.
Albert Wilson came from nowhere and played on 55%
of snaps, and finished with 4 receptions on 5 targets, for
87 yards. However, he was only in the game because of injuries
to other receivers, and most of his yardage came on a 64-yard
reception on a broken coverage. I would not pick him up. Itís
the same situation with Isaiah Ford, who finished with 4 receptions
for 84 yards. He played on only 11 snaps and was in the game
due to injuries to DeVante Parker and Will Fuller. Both should
be avoided for now.
Wide receiver snaps for the Falcons: Russell Gage
65%, Tajae Sharpe 57%, Olamide Zaccheaus 43%, Christian Blake
31%, and Frank Darby 22%. Zaccheaus led the way with 7 targets
(2-22), and Darby and Gage both had 3. None of them are exciting
options, and it appears that without Calvin Ridley this passing
game is going to be pretty awful. But Zaccheaus and Darby
are names to watch over the next few weeks, to see if one
Michael Gallup returned from his injury and got involved
right away, playing on 53% of snaps and getting 5 targets
(3-42). It appears to took some of the targets that had been
going to Amari Cooper, who finished with 4 targets (4-51).
This will likely hurt the value of both Cooper and Schultz
moving forward, even if it helps the Cowboys.
Neither Marvin Jones nor Laviska Shenault seem to
be able to get on the same page with Trevor Lawrence. They
played on 85% and 77% of snaps respectively, but Jones caught
only 2 of his 6 targets and Shenault caught only 3 of his
8 targets, and they only totaled 50 receiving yards together.
Both should be avoided until we see signs of life.
Michael Pittman Jr. played on 87% of snaps and caught
all 5 of his targets for 71 yards. Many were curious how the
return of T.Y. Hilton might affect Pittman, and it doesnít
appear that it will. Hilton did receive 5 targets on 61% of
snaps, but caught only 1 for 5 yards. It looks like he took
the snaps of the secondary receivers and did not affect Pittmanís
The answer to who would replace Odell Beckham Jr.
for the Browns turned out to be ďno oneĒ in Week
10. Landry led the way with 4-26 on 5 targets, but the whole
offense looked out of sorts. Donovan Peoples-Jones caught
only 1 of his 5 targets, and did not appear able to get open.
I would avoid all Browns players except for the backs.
From the box score it appears that perhaps Kendrick Bourne has taken over as the No. 1 wide receiver for the Patriots,
but the data tells a different story. Jakobi Meyers played
on 72% and Nelson Agholor on 70%, while Bourne played on 43%.
However, Bourne has been very involved of late, and caught
all 4 of his targets for 98 yards and a score. Agholor caught
only 2 of his 4 targets, for 21 yards. Keep an eye on whether
the snap share shifts toward Bourne in the coming weeks.
Stefon Diggs finally had a huge target day, finishing
with 13 targets (a 46% target share!). He caught 8 for 162
yards and a score. Of course he is a must-start every week.
Meanwhile, Emmanuel Sanders saw only 2 targets (2-27), as
did Beasley (2-15). The most interesting piece of data here
is that Cole Beasley only played 9 total snaps. Gabriel Davis
played on 30 (52%). This was likely due to Beasleyís
rib injury, but keep an eye on how this shakes out.
Corey Davis returned and played on 84% of snaps,
leading the way for the Jets receivers. He got 7 targets,
catching 5 for 93 yards. Jamison Crowder played on 83% and
got 6 targets, catching 3 for 20. Elijah Moore was next with
56% of snaps. Moore did finish with 3-44-1 on 6 targets, but
right now his upside is being seriously limited by the insistence
of the Jets coaches on playing more receivers (similar to
their backfield). Keelan Cole played on 42% of snaps, Braxton Berrios on 29%, and Jeff Smith on 13%. If they just let their
top three receivers play all the snaps, they could all provide
so much more value. For now, Moore remains a risky play due
to the limited opportunities, though his upside is showing
Ray-Ray McCloud played on 70% of snaps and got an
astounding 12 targets on Sunday, catching 9 for 63 yards.
While Chase Claypool remains out, McCloud is a decent streaming
option. However, Mason Rudolph did pass the ball 50 times,
which is unlikely to happen often.
Although A.J. Brown led the way for Titans receivers
with 82% of snaps, he received only 4 targets, catching 1
for 16 yards. Meanwhile, Marcus Johnson played on 63% of snaps
and got 6 targets, catching 5 for 100 yards. This was a devastating
output for Brown, in a week when those who have him on their
roster needed a big week. But in an offense that doesnít
throw the ball much, these weeks will occasionally happen.
Julio Jones will be out for a couple more weeks at least,
so keep in mind that Brown might struggle to produce without
a feared threat on the other side. Marcus Johnson is a desperation
add in deep leagues.
Mike Evans played on every snap for the Bucs on Sunday,
but he only received 3 targets. He did catch a 40-yard touchdown,
salvaging his fantasy day, but it was concerning how seldom
he was targeted, particularly when Leonard Fournette got 9
targets! If you roster Evans you just have to hope it was
a bump in the road and gets corrected.
Meanwhile, Chris Godwin played on 96% of snaps and
got 8 targets, a 24% target share. He caught 7 for 57 yards.
So while it was still not a good day for fantasy, at least
he was looked to often. Many, myself included, thought I might
be a big day for Tyler Johnson. But on 69% of snaps, Johnson
only received 5 targets and went 3-17. He has another shot
at a big day next week if Antonio Brown is still out, but
his chances might be dwindling.
Terry McLaurin played on 96% of snaps and had 8 targets
(25% target share). He finished with only 6 catches for 59
yards, and that is to be expected in this pedestrian passing
game. He should be started in the right matchups, but avoided
when possible, due to this less-than-stellar passing attack.
DeAndre Carter looks to have taken over as the No.
2 option at wide receiver for Washington. He played on 67%
of snaps and was second on the team in targets, with 6. He
finished with 3 catches for 56 yards and a score. He will
be very hit-or-miss, but in deep leagues he might be worth
D.J. Moore played on 79% of snaps and led the receivers
with 7 targets (24% target share), but finished with only
4 receptions for 24 yards. We can only hope the poor output
was due to backup P.J. Walker, and also can only hope that
things improve with Cam Newton under center.
Christian Kirk led the way for the Cardinals at receiver
with Hopkins out. He played on 85% of snaps, and got 8 targets
(40% target share). He caught 7 for 58 yards. Hopkins should
be back soon, so take this with a grain of salt. But still
it is worth noting.
Justin Jefferson played on 11 fewer snaps than Adam Thielen, but he led the way with 11 targets on Sunday (30%
target share). He caught 9 for 143 yards, certainly alpha
receiver numbers. It is encouraging to see Kirk Cousinsí
work to get Jefferson the ball, and if he is on your rosters
you just have to hope he starts scoring some touchdowns. Either
way, the involvement is very positive.
Mike Williams and Keenan Allen both played virtually
every snap on Sunday (95% and 93%, respectively). Allen got
11 targets (32% target share) and Williams got only 6. Allen
caught 8 for 98 yards while Williams caught only 4 for 33
yards. Williams is playing a ton, but for some reason is not
getting targets. Justin Herbert is still young and he will
find a way to get Williams going, so stay patient for now.
DeVonta Smith continues to have to deal with the
meager passing volume of this Eagles offense. On a weekly
basis he either disappoints due to lack of opportunities,
or thrives due to excellent efficiency on his few targets.
In Week 10 he thrived, catching 4 of 6 targets for 66 yards
and two scores. The six targets were good enough for a 26%
target share, showing how seldom the Eagles are throwing the
ball. That sort of efficiency is not sustainable, so he remains
a risky weekly play with a high ceiling.
There were some strange numbers for the Broncos receivers.
Snap share: Courtland Sutton 95%, Tim Patrick 91%, Jerry Jeudy
78%. Targets: Sutton 3, Patrick 6, Jeudy 9. We expected Jeudy
to get a lot of looks once he returned, but I did not expect
it to equal the disappearance of Sutton. He needs to benched
until we see him more incorporated into the offense on a weekly
Both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett got 8 targets on
Sunday, but Wilson had a very hard time getting the offense
rolling due to rust or possibly to his injury. Metcalf caught
only 3 for 26 yards, and Lockett caught 2 for 23 yards. Better
days are ahead.
Byron Pringle looks like he has worked his way into
third in the receiving rotation, ahead of Mecole Hardman and
the others. Pringle played on 61% of snaps and received 5
targets (4-46-1). With so many options in the passing game,
it will remain difficult to trust Pringle. But in potential
shootouts or very deep leagues, he could be a starting option.
Hunter Renfrow remained the most dependable Raiders
receiver in Week 10, garnering 9 targets (26% target share).
He caught 7 for 46 yards and a score.
Mike Gesicki played on 81% of snaps and was targeted
7 times (19% target share), but finished with zero receptions.
I am not too worried about this situation, and most of his struggles
were due to concentration or poor quarterbacking (particularly
when Jacoby Brissett was in the game). The only concerning aspect
for Gesicki is that Adam Shaheen and Durham Smythe both played
over 50% of snaps as well, and Shaheen caught 3 of his 4 targets.
Still, I expect Gesicki to remain heavily involved; youíll
just have to deal with the occasional poor game due to the way
this offense runs.
Dalton Schultz played on only 66% of snaps. This
was his lowest of the season, but some of that was likely
due to the Cowboys having a huge lead late. However, more
concerning is that his targets went way down, and he finished
with only 2. The return of Michael Gallup (5 targets) likely
affected him negatively, so this is certainly something to
watch. I would shift to another starting option if you have
one, until we see Schultz stay involved with Gallup on the
Dan Arnold remains the best receiving option for
the Jaguars, and produced again on Sunday. He finished with
7 targets, a 20% target share, and caught 5 for 67 yards.
He seems to be the only receiver clicking with Lawrence and
should be a top-10 tight end the rest of the way.
Hunter Henry continues to be a primary target in
the red zone for the Patriots. On 82% of snaps he got 4 targets
and caught them all for 37 yards. He scored twice. He is not
getting a high number of targets since the Patriots are a
run-first offense, but since heís so involved in the
red zone he is a nice weekly option.
Dawson Knox returned and played on 84% of snaps.
However, he only received 1 target (1-17). He has never been
a high-target player, and his early-season success was due
to a very high efficiency-per-target, with lots of touchdowns.
So he is a difficult player to trust weekly, but in a pinch
he is a decent option due to his potential to score.
T.J. Hockenson played on 94% of snaps, but only received
1 target. The Steelers schemed to take him away, and it worked
very well. Because of the lack of weapons for Detroit, Hockenson
is actually a risky play. Still, if you have him on your roster
you probably have to start him.
Pat Freiermuth stayed heavily involved for the Steelers,
even with Rudolph at quarterback. He played on 62% of snaps
and received 9 targets (18% target share). He caught only
5 for 31 yards, but the involvement is still positive. Eric Ebron returned to action, but clearly played behind Freiermuth.
He played on only 33% of snaps and got only 2 targets. Start
Freiermuth with confidence moving forward.
Adam Trautman stayed involved for the Saints, as
he got 6 targets (5-32), good enough for a 17% target share.
He played on 84% of snaps. If the Saints could get better
play at quarterback, Trautman could become a solid weekly
contributor. For now, he is only an option if desperate, or
in very deep leagues.
Ricky Seals-Jones was injured on Sunday, and rookie
John Bates filled in for him and caught all 3 of his targets
for 25 yards. If Logan Thomas is still not ready for Week
11, Bates could be a desperation play at tight end, but he
is best avoided.
Noah Fant returned from his Covid list and played
on 76% of snaps. He led the team in targets with 6 (17% target
share), and caught 5 for 59 yards. However, donít miss
that Albert Okwuegbunam played on 41% of snaps and caught
all 3 of his targets for 77 yards. Okwuegbunam is likely to
sap some potential upside from Fant over the rest of the season.
Gerald Everett played on 75% of snaps and tied for
the team-lead in targets, with 8. He caught them all, for
63 yards. This result could have been because Russell Wilson
was not comfortable throwing downfield with his sore thumb,
but perhaps the Seahawks will find ways to keep Everett involved
more moving forward.
Kevin Scott is a fantasy pro who has made over $100,000 playing
fantasy football. Catch his podcast "Grinding the Data"
and you can follow him on Twitter @kevinscottff.