In football, every player needs some help to accomplish their goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards now - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it does not mean we should not try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make more than 8,000 "decisions". Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence that they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. Even if my matchup-grading process is only 70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst who does not consider it at all. It is not as if it serves as much more than a tiebreaker for me.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst is to identify when stocks are poised to skyrocket or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. I have taken this approach for almost 20 years. While some of my processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions. As always, the matchup grades are included in the formula. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red - For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform at least slightly worse that week.

Yellow - For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White - This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green - For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern. In addition, I have added distinct tiers for this round of Big Boards (represented by the different colors in the "Pos" column).

Over the next two weeks, I will release my first Big Boards for 0.5 PPR, superflex and standard leagues as well as the FFPC Big Boards. In the second and final round of Big Boards near the end of the preseason, I will rank at least 225 players and present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format:

PPR Big Board - Top 200 Rk Pos Player Tm SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1 WR1 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 11.3 2 RB1 Bijan Robinson ATL 11.1 3 RB2 Christian McCaffrey SF 9.9 4 RB3 Jahmyr Gibbs DET 9.2 5 WR2 CeeDee Lamb DAL 9.2 6 WR3 Justin Jefferson MIN 7.6 7 RB4 Saquon Barkley PHI 6.7 8 RB5 Derrick Henry BAL 6.5 9 RB6 De'Von Achane MIA 6.0 10 WR4 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 5.5 11 RB7 Bucky Irving TB 5.4 12 WR5 Malik Nabers NYG 5.4 13 WR6 Drake London ATL 5.3 14 WR7 Brian Thomas Jr. JAC 5.1 15 RB8 Ashton Jeanty LV 5.1 16 WR8 Puka Nacua LAR 5.1 17 TE1 Brock Bowers LV 5.1 18 RB9 Chase Brown CIN 5.0 19 TE2 Trey McBride ARI 4.8 20 RB10 Jonathan Taylor IND 4.7 21 WR9 Nico Collins HOU 4.6 22 WR10 Ladd McConkey LAC 4.5 23 WR11 A.J. Brown PHI 4.5 24 QB1 Lamar Jackson BAL 4.1 25 WR12 Davante Adams LAR 3.8 26 RB11 Omarion Hampton LAC 3.7 27 WR13 Garrett Wilson NYJ 3.7 28 RB12 Josh Jacobs GB 3.6 29 WR14 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 3.4 30 RB13 Kenneth Walker SEA 3.2 31 QB2 Jayden Daniels WAS 3.2 32 WR15 Tetairoa McMillan CAR 3.2 33 WR16 Tee Higgins CIN 3.2 34 QB3 Josh Allen BUF 3.1 35 RB14 Breece Hall NYJ 3.1 36 WR17 Tyreek Hill MIA 3.0 37 WR18 Terry McLaurin WAS 3.0 38 RB15 Kyren Williams LAR 2.9 39 TE3 George Kittle SF 2.9 40 WR19 DeVonta Smith PHI 2.9 41 WR20 Calvin Ridley TEN 2.9 42 WR21 Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI 2.7 43 RB16 Chuba Hubbard CAR 2.7 44 QB4 Jalen Hurts PHI 2.6 45 WR22 Mike Evans TB 2.6 46 WR23 Jaylen Waddle MIA 2.4 47 RB17 Alvin Kamara NO 2.4 48 WR24 Courtland Sutton DEN 2.1 49 WR25 DK Metcalf PIT 2.0 50 WR26 D.J. Moore CHI 2.0 51 WR27 Jameson Williams DET 2.0 52 RB18 James Cook BUF 2.0 53 WR28 George Pickens DAL 2.0 54 WR29 Rashee Rice KC 1.9 55 WR30 Rome Odunze CHI 1.9 56 WR31 Stefon Diggs NE 1.8 57 RB19 RJ Harvey DEN 1.8 58 RB20 TreVeyon Henderson NE 1.6 59 QB5 Joe Burrow CIN 1.4 60 WR32 Chris Olave NO 1.2 61 WR33 Travis Hunter JAC 1.1 62 TE4 Evan Engram DEN 1.1 63 TE5 Travis Kelce KC 1.1 64 WR34 Zay Flowers BAL 1.0 65 WR35 Xavier Worthy KC 1.0 66 TE6 T.J. Hockenson MIN 0.9 67 RB21 David Montgomery DET 0.8 68 TE7 Mark Andrews BAL 0.8 69 WR36 Khalil Shakir BUF 0.8 70 TE8 Tucker Kraft GB 0.7 71 RB22 James Conner ARI 0.7 72 TE9 Sam LaPorta DET 0.7 73 RB23 Aaron Jones MIN 0.6 74 RB24 Tony Pollard TEN 0.6 75 TE10 David Njoku CLE 0.6 76 RB25 D'Andre Swift CHI 0.5 77 WR37 Jakobi Meyers LV 0.4 78 WR38 Jayden Reed GB 0.3 79 TE11 Jake Ferguson DAL 0.2 80 WR39 Emeka Egbuka TB 0.2 81 RB26 Jaylen Warren PIT 0.2 82 WR40 Josh Downs IND 0.0 83 WR41 Jauan Jennings SF -0.1 84 WR42 Michael Pittman Jr. IND -0.1 85 RB27 Kaleb Johnson PIT -0.1 86 RB28 Isiah Pacheco KC -0.2 87 WR43 Chris Godwin TB -0.3 88 RB29 J.K. Dobbins DEN -0.5 89 QB6 Patrick Mahomes KC -0.6 90 TE12 Colston Loveland CHI -0.7 91 WR44 Deebo Samuel WAS -0.7 92 WR45 Ricky Pearsall SF -0.9 93 RB30 Jordan Mason MIN -0.9 94 QB7 Baker Mayfield TB -1.0 95 TE13 Tyler Warren IND -1.0 96 RB31 Tyjae Spears TEN -1.0 97 WR46 Jerry Jeudy CLE -1.0 98 WR47 Darnell Mooney ATL -1.1 99 WR48 Jayden Higgins HOU -1.1 100 TE14 Hunter Henry NE -1.1 101 QB8 Caleb Williams CHI -1.2 102 QB9 Kyler Murray ARI -1.2 103 TE15 Zach Ertz WAS -1.3 104 WR49 Rashod Bateman BAL -1.4 105 RB32 Rhamondre Stevenson NE -1.4 106 RB33 Cam Skattebo NYG -1.4 107 TE16 Kyle Pitts ATL -1.5 108 TE17 Dalton Kincaid BUF -1.6 109 QB10 Justin Fields NYJ -1.7 110 QB11 Bo Nix DEN -1.7 111 TE18 Pat Freiermuth PIT -1.7 112 WR50 Jordan Addison MIN -1.8 113 RB34 Zach Charbonnet SEA -1.8 114 QB12 Brock Purdy SF -1.8 115 WR51 Demario Douglas NE -1.8 116 TE19 Brenton Strange JAC -1.9 117 TE20 Elijah Arroyo SEA -2.0 118 QB13 Dak Prescott DAL -2.0 119 QB14 J.J. McCarthy MIN -2.0 120 RB35 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS -2.1 121 RB36 Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG -2.1 122 RB37 Trey Benson ARI -2.1 123 WR52 Rashid Shaheed NO -2.1 124 WR53 Cedric Tillman CLE -2.1 125 TE21 Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN -2.1 126 RB38 Travis Etienne JAC -2.1 127 RB39 Jaylen Wright MIA -2.2 128 QB15 Drake Maye NE -2.2 129 TE22 Theo Johnson NYG -2.2 130 WR54 Marquise Brown KC -2.3 131 QB16 Jordan Love GB -2.4 132 WR55 Brandon Aiyuk SF -2.4 133 QB17 Trevor Lawrence JAC -2.5 134 RB40 Javonte Williams DAL -2.5 135 RB41 Quinshon Judkins CLE -2.5 136 QB18 Justin Herbert LAC -2.5 137 QB19 C.J. Stroud HOU -2.5 138 WR56 Marvin Mims DEN -2.5 139 RB42 Bhayshul Tuten JAC -2.6 140 WR57 Tre Harris LAC -2.7 141 TE23 Juwan Johnson NO -2.7 142 TE24 Isaiah Likely BAL -2.7 143 WR58 Wan'Dale Robinson NYG -2.8 144 RB43 Isaac Guerendo SF -3.0 145 WR59 Matthew Golden GB -3.0 146 QB20 Jared Goff DET -3.2 147 RB44 Braelon Allen NYJ -3.2 148 QB21 Bryce Young CAR -3.2 149 TE25 Tyler Conklin LAC -3.2 150 RB45 Jaydon Blue DAL -3.2 151 WR60 Darius Slayton NYG -3.2 152 QB22 Tua Tagovailoa MIA -3.3 153 TE26 Darren Waller MIA -3.3 154 TE27 Dallas Goedert PHI -3.3 155 RB46 Austin Ekeler WAS -3.3 156 TE28 Mason Taylor NYJ -3.3 157 RB47 Kyle Monangai CHI -3.3 158 WR61 Andrei Iosivas CIN -3.4 159 WR62 Romeo Doubs GB -3.5 160 WR63 Tyler Lockett TEN -3.6 161 WR64 Dontayvion Wicks GB -3.7 162 WR65 Keon Coleman BUF -3.7 163 WR66 Dyami Brown JAC -3.8 164 RB48 Najee Harris LAC -3.8 165 WR67 Christian Kirk HOU -3.9 166 RB49 Nick Chubb HOU -4.0 167 RB50 MarShawn Lloyd GB -4.1 168 RB51 Brashard Smith KC -4.2 169 RB52 Rachaad White TB -4.2 170 WR68 Xavier Legette CAR -4.2 171 RB53 DJ Giddens IND -4.2 172 QB23 Cam Ward TEN -4.3 173 WR69 Josh Palmer BUF -4.3 174 WR70 Adam Thielen CAR -4.3 175 WR71 Elic Ayomanor TEN -4.3 176 WR72 Cooper Kupp SEA -4.3 177 RB54 Woody Marks HOU -4.4 178 RB55 Jarquez Hunter LAR -4.4 179 QB24 Geno Smith LV -4.4 180 RB56 Dylan Sampson CLE -4.5 181 WR73 Luther Burden III CHI -4.6 182 QB25 Matthew Stafford LAR -4.6 183 WR74 Kayshon Boutte NE -4.8 184 RB57 Justice Hill BAL -4.9 185 QB26 Michael Penix Jr. ATL -5.1 186 WR75 Jalen McMillan TB -5.1 187 WR76 Devaughn Vele DEN -5.2 188 RB58 Joe Mixon HOU -5.2 189 WR77 Michael Wilson ARI -5.4 190 RB59 Ray Davis BUF -5.4 191 WR78 KaVontae Turpin DAL -5.6 192 RB60 Raheem Mostert LV -5.7 193 WR79 Alec Pierce IND -5.7 194 WR80 Ray-Ray McCloud ATL -5.8 195 WR81 DeAndre Hopkins BAL -5.8 196 RB61 Tyler Allgeier ATL -6.1 197 RB62 Sean Tucker TB -6.1 198 RB63 Devin Neal NO -6.3 199 RB64 Blake Corum LAR -6.4 200 RB65 Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS -6.5

PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC

Initial Draft Plan

Blue chipper is a term that gets used a lot more in college football recruiting, but it probably needs to be used a lot more in fantasy circles. It would behoove managers to think about fantasy drafts in the same way NFL general managers view the NFL Draft - at least in this regard. Just like in the NFL Draft, there are usually about seven or eight players - give or take - whom teams should take regardless of what is on their roster. A perfect example from this spring's draft was Abdul Carter. Was a pass rusher a screaming need for the Giants with Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux already on the roster? No. Can you find a way to use his unique talents and build your defense around him? Absolutely. (The same thing is applicable in fantasy.)

There are roughly another 10 college players who are widely considered first-round talents in April. That adds up to about 17 or 18 players. Just because there are 32 first-round picks does not mean there are 32 players worth going in the first round. Similarly, fantasy drafts sometimes provide managers with eight obvious first-round picks and 10 players worth taking in the second round. Other years, it feels like there are 14 worthy first-round picks and eight second-rounders.

The top eight players listed above are there for a reason: they have the best combination of the many factors we consider in fantasy, such as elite talent, situation and/or scheme. (The top five have the fewest questions and the most upside - that much should be obvious to even the most casual fantasy manager.) The top eight players are this year's blue-chippers. History tells us that maybe half of these players will disappoint, but that is also looking at the glass half-empty.

If a blue-chipper falls into your lap, grab him. If another lasts until the second round, grab him too. Your job as a fantasy manager is to gain an edge with every pick if possible. Drafting a potential 100-catch, 1,400-yard, 8-10 touchdown receiver at 2.03 may not fit into the original draft plan, but it sure makes it difficult for the rest of your league to keep up if you have two of those players. Managers should enter the draft with a plan - maybe even a preference on how to build their team - but understand when an opportunity presents itself.

YOUR FIRST TWO OR THREE PICKS SET THE FOUNDATION FOR HOW/WHO YOU SHOULD DRAFT THE REST OF THE WAY. THE INABILITY TO RECOGNIZE VALUE EARLY WILL EVENTUALLY FORCE YOU TO REACH ON A PLAYER LATER.

As I have learned playing in the 14-team King's Classic over the years, a receiver-heavy approach is probably the way to go more often than not because the waiver wire may only present a handful of nuggets throughout the season. In other words, it makes sense to build more of an anti-fragile roster because one or two key injuries to a fantasy team in those leagues are usually catastrophic. A receiver-heavy approach also makes sense in best ball because upside and availability may be the two most important qualities our players can have in that format - in large part because there is no ability to add players during the season.

However, in a managed 12-team PPR league, our job as managers is to secure as much talent as possible during the draft and figure out how to manage it later. A sixth-round "need" pick at any position is going to look silly in late October if a player who had a fourth-round value was still available.

Blue Chippers (1-8)

Ja'Marr Chase is coming off a "Triple Crown" season and enters his age-25 season, which makes him a strong bet to follow up his incredible 2025 campaign with a strong encore. If anyone seems poised to be fantasy's No. 1 player two seasons in a row, it is probably him. The Falcons spent most of last summer promising us that Bijan Robinson would be used in the same way the 49ers use Christian McCaffrey. When they finally got around to it in mid-October, it was glorious for the fantasy managers who could survive him providing RB19 production for the first five weeks. After that, he was the overall RB3 (and that was only because Saquon Barkley had a special season and Jahmyr Gibbs went off after a late injury to David Montgomery). With four-fifths of his line and his play-caller returning, youth on his side, the promise of another heavy workload, a quarterback capable of threatening all areas of the field and one of the softer schedules for running backs this season, there is reason to feel good about having Robinson at the top of the running back position.

Christian McCaffrey sitting at No. 3 is bound to make eyes roll, as his age (29) and injury history are working against him. That is fair. After all, he has played a total of 14 games in his three injured seasons since 2019 (2020, 2021 and 2024). He was the overall RB2 in 2022 and RB1 in 2023. What were his injuries in the other years, you ask? A high-ankle sprain, shoulder and thigh in 2020, a hamstring and ankle sprain in 2021 and Achilles tendinitis and a PCL sprain in 2024. Is he injury-prone? (I think you know my answer. Last year at this time, Saquon Barkley was injury-prone.) If McCaffrey's injury issues were the same ones year after year, then I can understand passing on him until he became a screaming value.

Otherwise, pass on him at your peril. Every running back comes with a fair amount of injury risk, so stop telling yourself he is injury-prone. Fantasy managers - especially those who play in many leagues - should be thinking mostly about ceiling when drafting. No one has a ceiling as high as CMC. Even at 29 years old. Do not be the manager in your league that allows the manager at the 1.10 to draft CMC and Brian Thomas Jr. or Drake London or even Amon-Ra St. Brown at the 2.03. It makes for a tough four months when you see what could have been.

Managers might be feeling a bit of trepidation regarding Justin Jefferson as he opens the season with his third different quarterback in as many years. Sure, his volume might decline ever so slightly as Minnesota likely runs the ball a bit more to complement its great defense and take advantage of one of the best offensive lines in the league. Make no mistake about it; Jefferson is going to be fed regardless. Also, do not make the mistake of believing an I-need-him-to-prove-it-to-me-first quarterback (J.J. McCarthy) is going to keep Jefferson from being a WR1 yet again.

The last player in this tier that I will discuss is Saquon Barkley. There have been 28 instances in league history where a running back has handled at least 450 touches in a season (including playoffs). I want to focus on the six most recent instances, beginning with LaDainian Tomlinson in 2002. (In the interest of full disclosure, only two backs since 2006 have eclipsed 450 touches - none since 2014.) The average fall-off from one regular season to the next was as follows:

3.7 games missed, 166 fewer rush attempts, 829 fewer rushing yards, 8.5 fewer rushing touchdowns (six players)

With Tomlinson excluded, those numbers look substantially worse:

4.4 games missed, 187 fewer rush attempts, 987 fewer rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns (five players)

Using the latter set of numbers as our guide, we should expect Barkley to play 11 or 12 games and rush for roughly 1,018 yards. While I will be the first to admit this analysis is based on a very small sample size, it is at least notable that every other back after Tomlinson missed at least one game and three missed at least four. The average drop-off in touches was 201 (not including LT). I will you first to admit that Barkley is a physical freak in some ways, so it would not be a surprise if he ends up being the exception (Tomlinson) rather than the rule. The primary difference between Tomlinson and the others is that his 450-plus season came at age 23. The other five players had their high-usage season at age 26 or later. Barkley is 28.5 years old at the time this article is published.

(If you don't want to take my word for it: my friend, Dr. Jesse Morse, did a bit of a deep dive into the history of 450-touch running backs.)

The Near Elite (9-24)

I discussed most of the things we need to know about De'Von Achane's 2025 fantasy stock here. With Tua Tagovailoa playing, fantasy managers could count on nearly 10 fantasy points per game from Achane just as a receiver (and not including receiving touchdowns) and 22.6 fantasy points in all last season (8.6 without Tua). Without him, Achane was more of a flex option. The with/without Tagovailoa splits are scary enough before we consider that Achane is a smaller back running behind a poor offensive line. It should go without saying that the reason he cannot be considered an elite fantasy option entering the season is that it feels safe to say his stock depends almost entirely on his quarterback's ability to stay healthy behind a weak offensive line, which also assumes Achane can hold up for another 250-300 touches in 2025.

What are we supposed to expect from a rookie tight end coming off a historic season like the one Brock Bowers just had? Can we honestly expect a rookie who fell four catches shy of breaking the record for receptions by a tight end to improve on that mark? The case to be made for that happening is that Geno Smith should be a considerable upgrade over Aidan O'Connell and new OC Chip Kelly is bringing his wide-open, up-tempo offense back to the NFL. The case against it happening is less passing-game volume (Las Vegas attempted 635 passes in 2024), better competition for those passes (rookies Jack Bech and Dont'e Thornton Jr. and a team that will likely commit to the run (which has long been a priority for HC Pete Carroll's teams and something the team made clear the moment it drafted Ashton Jeanty).

Chase Brown does not seem like he should belong inside the top 20 of drafts. Maybe he wasn't a big enough name coming out of the University of Illinois. Maybe he just doesn't look the part. Maybe he has not proven it over a full season. Maybe the offensive line stinks. While the last two sentiments may be true, what we do know is that the NFL erred in letting him slip to the fifth round of the 2023 draft. He also proved he could handle a heavy workload (23.7 touches per week following Zack Moss' season-ending neck injury in Week 8). The Bengals have largely been a one-back team for years and ride that back hard once they have identified him. Tahj Brooks will undoubtedly mix in and take about five touches per game off his plate most weeks, while Samaje Perine will probably handle most of the long third-down situations. However, Brown profiles as a clear top back in an offense that will probably score 50-plus touchdowns. If anything, Brown is a candidate to move up the board as the month progresses, not down.

Four Stars (25-47)

This group does not need much help to move up into one of the earlier two groups, but every one of them has a noticeable wart or two. Omarion Hampton could have a Najee Harris problem ... or he might not. The same goes for Josh Jacobs and MarShawn Lloyd. Will Justin Fields and the new run-heavy offense of the Jets be the thing that ends Garrett Wilson's three-year streak of 80-plus catches and 1,000-plus yards (despite playing with some poor quarterbacks and amid chaos)? Or will the lack of viable target-earners in New York allow him to push for a 30-percent target share and/or 200 targets?

While Jaxon Smith-Njigba proved his alpha worthiness in 2024 and should be poised for even better things in 2025, it is still fair to wonder if Sam Darnold will be a one-for-one replacement for Geno Smith. Furthermore, new OC Klint Kubiak will prioritize the running game much more than former OC Ryan Grubb did. Will the Seahawks throw enough to get JSN to 150 targets and will Darnold prove he had as much to do with his career resurgence as Vikings HC Kevin O'Connell did?

Staying in Seattle, it is apparently Year 2 of the Kenneth Walker takeover. Although many have a right to be leery about Zach Charbonnet handling more work after what he did in Walker's stead last season. Let me be clear about this: if Walker is healthy, he will get the work he needs to be a fantasy RB1. The outside zone scheme that Kubiak prefers should hide some of the shortcomings of Seattle's middling offensive line and accentuate Walker's skills. The Seahawks should block better than they did last year as a result and Kubiak should stick to the run more than Grubb. Therefore, the main question I have - and one that will not be answered until midway through the season - is if his revamped offseason regimen will be the thing that puts an end to muscle sprains that have plagued him early in his pro career.

Tetairoa McMillan has been a favorite of mine since I first laid eyes on him this spring. My initial projection for him (80-plus catches, 1,000-plus yards and seven touchdowns - a trio of numbers that only nine rookie receivers have ever hit) may seem a bit optimistic, but he is the real deal. He debuts as a top 15 fantasy receiver on my board here and I do not see that changing. It should not take long for him to be considered one of the best contested-catch wideouts in the game. His huge frame, long arms and vice-grip hands should make him a go-to option as early as Week 1. He may struggle initially with press coverage on the rare occasion he sees it (mostly because he did not see it much in college), but that figures to be a temporary obstacle.

Ranking Tyreek Hill at 36 feels more like an obligation than something that seems like a good idea. He has overall WR1 upside, even at 31 years old. We know he is still as fast as any player in the league. Yet, does a wrist injury explain why he ranked 26th in separation score (0.101) and 29th in yards per route run (1.99) one year after 11th (0.180) and first (4.05) finishes in 2023 (minimum 200 routes)? Did Miami's anemic running game scare defenses so little last year that opponents were content with the Dolphins checking down to Achane and Jonnu Smith seemingly every other play? Did Miami do enough to get defenses out of their Cover-2 and Cover-4 shells? That is debatable. There is also a question of how "in" he is. If the Dolphins are 3-8 heading into their Week 12 bye (as I have predicted), will he become a distraction and/or check out?

The Titans made significant upgrades on the offensive line (Dan Moore and Kevin Zeitler, as well as moving JC Latham back to his more natural right tackle spot) and at quarterback (Cam Ward). We should also remember that Calvin Ridley is a player HC Brian Callahan stated he wanted to play in the Ja'Marr Chase role after signing him a year ago. Ward is not Joe Burrow and Ridley is not Chase, but we should not dismiss how impressive it was that Ridley topped 1,000 receiving yards last year despite catching passes all season from Will Levis and Mason Rudolph. (Ridley ranked 139th among 154 qualified pass-catchers in catchable ball rate (67.5 percent). Tennessee should be a much-improved offense this year and Ridley will be in the best offensive environment he has been in since at least 2020 or 2021. If Ward is even the 16th-best quarterback in the league this season, Ridley will be a top-20 fantasy receiver. (I have as WR19 above.) If Ward is better than advertised and this year's C.J. Stroud, then Ridley probably belongs in the same area as Garrett Wilson.

Three Stars (48-63)

This is an interesting tier because so many arguments can be made to bump them up at least a tier. Virtually every receiver in this group feels like they are being mispriced.

The drumbeat coming out of Detroit surrounding Jameson Williams is too strong. Amon-Ra St. Brown isn't going to surrender his alpha receiver throne in the Motor City anytime soon, but we began to see last season that Williams' emergence was coming at the expense of Sam LaPorta (until the defense began falling apart at the seams). It appears new OC John Morton is prioritizing more deep throws and talking up Williams' ability to run every route, which would seem to suggest more short routes (while keeping his role as a field-stretcher) and more targets are in his future. He still has yet to play a full season, so some caution is warranted. With that said, Williams seems like an excellent WR3 or WR4 in a receiver-heavy build in the fifth round. He should be expected to push for 70 catches (58 last season), 1,100-plus yards receiving (1,001) and perhaps even 10 touchdowns (seven).

The next player I want to discuss is almost impossible to slot, if only because he is a near-lock to miss games due to suspension. My formula accounts for and punishes players for missing games, which is why Rashee Rice finds himself in the fifth-round area. My projection for Rice is missing four games under the NFL's Personal Conduct Policy, which makes him a hard sell in the third round of fantasy drafts. The suspension projection could end up being on the low end as well (maybe six games?), which means managers could be taking a zero for nearly half of the fantasy regular season. That is too steep a price - at least until we learn what the suspension length actually is - to be taking Rice ahead of receivers such as DK Metcalf and George Pickens, each of whom should be steady WR2s.

Rome Odunze seems too high and too low. Odunze might be too low because he likely projects as the team's top red zone weapon and should benefit from softer coverage than teammate D.J. Moore. With better offensive line play almost guaranteed, there should be more opportunities for Caleb Williams to take advantage of Odunze's field-stretching ability. On the other hand, Moore is a run-after-catch stud who should serve as an "easy button" at times. Despite all the negative talk surrounding him this offseason, Moore is still a very good NFL receiver.

Let's wrap up this week with some rapid-fire analysis with some of the other players from this tier who feel too low.

James Cook is unhappy with his contract and due for some major negative touchdown regression. Ray Davis is waiting in the wings as well. Even after scoring 18 times a year ago, he only finished as the overall RB8. I do not see a likely scenario in which he is a top 10 back again in 2025.

RJ Harvey appears likely to play the "Alvin Kamara role" in Denver this season. That does not mean, however, that he is the next Kamara. As long as J.K. Dobbins can stay healthy, it is difficult to imagine Denver having enough touches in the backfield for both backs to be considered every-week starters. Harvey should obviously be considered the favorite of the two to do it more often (because he should be highly active in the passing game), but I do not think a young Kamara-like 80-plus catches is in his immediate future.

Chris Olave is a certifiable stud. His concussion history is the most likely reason his fantasy stock has taken a hit this summer. With that said, that may only be half of the reason to drop him in the fifth- or sixth-round range. One of Tyler Shough or Spencer Rattler will likely emerge as the starting quarterback in New Orleans this summer, and I am not sure I can imagine either one supporting a top-20-25 receiver. Combined with his injury history, it makes sense to play this one cautiously.

Travis Hunter is unlike any player we have had to predict in the history of fantasy football. Fantasy managers probably should not question his endurance. They definitely do not question his talent. The thing that should concern any of us is how both of those qualities could be his downfall as a fantasy option. Hunter had trouble holding up for a full season in college playing both ways, so why should we expect that to change in a more physical league? Moreover, how many weeks will it take before his 100-plus plays per game zap his explosiveness? Will it happen in November? December? It is almost certain it will happen.

Consider me all aboard the Evan Engram train. While it is a bit hilarious how much play the "Joker" term has received in recent years, it is a great thing for fantasy football when HC Sean Payton decides he has one. Think about Jimmy Graham, Kamara or even Reggie Bush. The NFL is a mismatch league and the "Joker" is about having a player who creates mismatches. After initially struggling with durability during his early years with the Giants, Engram has logged at least 15 games in four of the last five seasons. The amazing thing is that even in last year's disappointing Jacksonville offense, Engram was on an 89-catch, 689-yard pace and two-touchdown pace. While I will acknowledge the two-touchdown pace is far from ideal, the other two numbers were comparable to Jonnu Smith's a year ago. This season's Broncos figure to be much more explosive than last year's Jaguars, so we should probably expect Engram's TD numbers to increase significantly. As the likely "Joker" in this offense, we should probably expect his catches and receiving yardage to spike as well.

Note: Due to my annual trip to Ohio for the King's Classic and the Fantasy Football Expo, you will see nothing but Big Boards between now and Aug. 19. When I return to writing in a couple of weeks, I intend on spending more time on players after the 10th round (when most fantasy teams have secured their starters).