Football is simple at its very core, but it is a very complex game
to evaluate and analyze because 11 men try to work in harmony roughly
60 times per game, while 11 other men make it their job to disrupt
that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team
can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the
offense can still score. Pro football is also not pro baseball in
that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing
his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never
beat a defense all by himself.
In football, every player needs some help to accomplish their
goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of
what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game
- even by the tamer standards now - adds another element to the
equation that is difficult to quantify.
Regardless, it does not mean we should not try. Over the last
month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players.
Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make more than 8,000 "decisions".
Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my
evaluations the confidence that they have the best draft-day tool
at their disposal. Even if my matchup-grading process is only
70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over
any analyst who does not consider it at all. It is not as if it
serves as much more than a tiebreaker for me.
Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst
is to identify when stocks are poised to skyrocket or ready to
tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts
set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting
point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not
reactive. I have taken this approach for almost 20 years. While
some of my processes have changed in that time, the main goal
has not.
The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered
in large part by my target and carry predictions. As always, the
matchup grades are included in the formula. SSI allows me to compare
apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly,
I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different
scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).
For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain
the color-coding system before we start:
Red – For lower-level players, a red matchup
is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or
third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at
least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For
elite players, expect them to perform at least
slightly worse that week.
Yellow – For lower-level players, he is a borderline
start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight
edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For
the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.
White – This one can go either way, but I favor
the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups
are winnable for all levels of players.
Green – For non-elite players, the stage is
set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player,
this matchup could produce special numbers.
Note: Players with a
next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout
concern. In addition, I have added distinct tiers for this round
of Big Boards (represented by the different colors in the "Pos"
column).
Over the next two weeks, I will release my first Big Boards for
0.5 PPR, superflex and standard leagues as well as the FFPC Big
Boards. In the second and final round of Big Boards near the end
of the preseason, I will rank at least 225 players and present
my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams.
Here is the scoring
system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format:
Blue chipper is a term that gets used a lot more in college football recruiting, but it probably needs to be used a lot more in fantasy circles. It would behoove managers to think about fantasy drafts in the same way NFL general managers view the NFL Draft - at least in this regard. Just like in the NFL Draft, there are usually about seven or eight players - give or take - whom teams should take regardless of what is on their roster. A perfect example from this spring's draft was Abdul Carter. Was a pass rusher a screaming need for the Giants with Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux already on the roster? No. Can you find a way to use his unique talents and build your defense around him? Absolutely. (The same thing is applicable in fantasy.)
There are roughly another 10 college players who are widely considered first-round talents in April. That adds up to about 17 or 18 players. Just because there are 32 first-round picks does not mean there are 32 players worth going in the first round. Similarly, fantasy drafts sometimes provide managers with eight obvious first-round picks and 10 players worth taking in the second round. Other years, it feels like there are 14 worthy first-round picks and eight second-rounders.
The top eight players listed above are there for a reason: they have the best combination of the many factors we consider in fantasy, such as elite talent, situation and/or scheme. (The top five have the fewest questions and the most upside - that much should be obvious to even the most casual fantasy manager.) The top eight players are this year's blue-chippers. History tells us that maybe half of these players will disappoint, but that is also looking at the glass half-empty.
If a blue-chipper falls into your lap, grab him. If another lasts until the second round, grab him too. Your job as a fantasy manager is to gain an edge with every pick if possible. Drafting a potential 100-catch, 1,400-yard, 8-10 touchdown receiver at 2.03 may not fit into the original draft plan, but it sure makes it difficult for the rest of your league to keep up if you have two of those players. Managers should enter the draft with a plan - maybe even a preference on how to build their team - but understand when an opportunity presents itself.
YOUR FIRST TWO OR THREE PICKS SET THE FOUNDATION FOR HOW/WHO YOU SHOULD DRAFT THE REST OF THE WAY. THE INABILITY TO RECOGNIZE VALUE EARLY WILL EVENTUALLY FORCE YOU TO REACH ON A PLAYER LATER.
As I have learned playing in the 14-team King's Classic over the years, a receiver-heavy approach is probably the way to go more often than not because the waiver wire may only present a handful of nuggets throughout the season. In other words, it makes sense to build more of an anti-fragile roster because one or two key injuries to a fantasy team in those leagues are usually catastrophic. A receiver-heavy approach also makes sense in best ball because upside and availability may be the two most important qualities our players can have in that format - in large part because there is no ability to add players during the season.
However, in a managed 12-team PPR league, our job as managers is to secure as much talent as possible during the draft and figure out how to manage it later. A sixth-round "need" pick at any position is going to look silly in late October if a player who had a fourth-round value was still available.
Blue Chippers (1-8)
Ja'Marr Chase is coming
off a "Triple Crown" season and enters his age-25 season, which
makes him a strong bet to follow up his incredible 2025 campaign
with a strong encore. If anyone seems poised to be fantasy's No.
1 player two seasons in a row, it is probably him. The Falcons
spent most of last summer promising us that Bijan
Robinson would be used in the same way the 49ers use Christian
McCaffrey. When they finally got around to it in mid-October,
it was glorious for the fantasy managers who could survive him
providing RB19 production for the first five weeks. After that,
he was the overall RB3 (and that was only because Saquon
Barkley had a special season and Jahmyr
Gibbs went off after a late injury to David
Montgomery). With four-fifths of his line and his play-caller
returning, youth on his side, the promise of another heavy workload,
a quarterback capable of threatening all areas of the field and
one of the softer schedules for running backs this season, there
is reason to feel good about having Robinson at the top of the
running back position.
Christian McCaffrey
sitting at No. 3 is bound to make eyes roll, as his age (29) and
injury history are working against him. That is fair. After all,
he has played a total of 14 games in his three injured seasons
since 2019 (2020, 2021 and 2024). He was the overall RB2 in 2022
and RB1 in 2023. What were his injuries in the other years, you
ask? A high-ankle sprain, shoulder and thigh in 2020, a hamstring
and ankle sprain in 2021 and Achilles tendinitis and a PCL sprain
in 2024. Is he injury-prone? (I think you know my answer. Last
year at this time, Saquon Barkley was injury-prone.) If McCaffrey's
injury issues were the same ones year after year, then I can understand
passing on him until he became a screaming value.
Otherwise, pass on him at your peril. Every running back comes with a fair amount of injury risk, so stop telling yourself he is injury-prone. Fantasy managers - especially those who play in many leagues - should be thinking mostly about ceiling when drafting. No one has a ceiling as high as CMC. Even at 29 years old. Do not be the manager in your league that allows the manager at the 1.10 to draft CMC and Brian Thomas Jr. or Drake London or even Amon-Ra St. Brown at the 2.03. It makes for a tough four months when you see what could have been.
Managers might be feeling a bit of trepidation regarding Justin Jefferson as he opens the season with his third different quarterback in as many years. Sure, his volume might decline ever so slightly as Minnesota likely runs the ball a bit more to complement its great defense and take advantage of one of the best offensive lines in the league. Make no mistake about it; Jefferson is going to be fed regardless. Also, do not make the mistake of believing an I-need-him-to-prove-it-to-me-first quarterback (J.J. McCarthy) is going to keep Jefferson from being a WR1 yet again.
The last player in this tier that I will discuss is Saquon
Barkley. There have been 28 instances in league history where
a running back has handled at least 450 touches in a season (including
playoffs). I want to focus on the six most recent instances, beginning
with LaDainian Tomlinson in 2002. (In the interest of full disclosure,
only two backs since 2006 have eclipsed 450 touches - none since
2014.) The average fall-off from one regular season to the next
was as follows:
With Tomlinson excluded, those numbers look substantially worse:
4.4 games missed, 187 fewer rush attempts, 987 fewer rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns (five players)
Using the latter set of numbers as our guide, we should expect Barkley to play 11 or 12 games and rush for roughly 1,018 yards. While I will be the first to admit this analysis is based on a very small sample size, it is at least notable that every other back after Tomlinson missed at least one game and three missed at least four. The average drop-off in touches was 201 (not including LT). I will you first to admit that Barkley is a physical freak in some ways, so it would not be a surprise if he ends up being the exception (Tomlinson) rather than the rule. The primary difference between Tomlinson and the others is that his 450-plus season came at age 23. The other five players had their high-usage season at age 26 or later. Barkley is 28.5 years old at the time this article is published.
I discussed most of the things we need to know about De'Von
Achane's 2025 fantasy stock here.
With Tua Tagovailoa
playing, fantasy managers could count on nearly 10 fantasy points
per game from Achane just as a receiver (and not including receiving
touchdowns) and 22.6 fantasy points in all last season (8.6 without
Tua). Without him, Achane was more of a flex option. The with/without
Tagovailoa splits are scary enough before we consider that Achane
is a smaller back running behind a
poor offensive line. It should go without saying that the
reason he cannot be considered an elite fantasy option entering
the season is that it feels safe to say his stock depends almost
entirely on his quarterback's ability to stay healthy behind a
weak offensive line, which also assumes Achane can hold up for
another 250-300 touches in 2025.
What are we supposed to expect from a rookie tight end coming
off a historic season like the one Brock
Bowers just had? Can we honestly expect a rookie who fell
four catches shy of breaking the record for receptions by a tight
end to improve on that mark? The case to be made for that happening
is that Geno Smith
should be a considerable upgrade over Aidan
O'Connell and new OC Chip Kelly is bringing his wide-open,
up-tempo offense back to the NFL. The case against it happening
is less passing-game volume (Las Vegas attempted 635 passes in
2024), better competition for those passes (rookies Jack
Bech and Dont'e
Thornton Jr. and a team that will likely commit to the run
(which has long been a priority for HC Pete Carroll's teams and
something the team made clear the moment it drafted Ashton
Jeanty).
Chase Brown does not seem like he should belong inside the top 20 of drafts. Maybe he wasn't a big enough name coming out of the University of Illinois. Maybe he just doesn't look the part. Maybe he has not proven it over a full season. Maybe the offensive line stinks. While the last two sentiments may be true, what we do know is that the NFL erred in letting him slip to the fifth round of the 2023 draft. He also proved he could handle a heavy workload (23.7 touches per week following Zack Moss' season-ending neck injury in Week 8). The Bengals have largely been a one-back team for years and ride that back hard once they have identified him. Tahj Brooks will undoubtedly mix in and take about five touches per game off his plate most weeks, while Samaje Perine will probably handle most of the long third-down situations. However, Brown profiles as a clear top back in an offense that will probably score 50-plus touchdowns. If anything, Brown is a candidate to move up the board as the month progresses, not down.
Four Stars (25-47)
This group does not need much help to move up into one of the earlier two groups, but every one of them has a noticeable wart or two. Omarion Hampton could have a Najee Harris problem … or he might not. The same goes for Josh Jacobs and MarShawn Lloyd. Will Justin Fields and the new run-heavy offense of the Jets be the thing that ends Garrett Wilson's three-year streak of 80-plus catches and 1,000-plus yards (despite playing with some poor quarterbacks and amid chaos)? Or will the lack of viable target-earners in New York allow him to push for a 30-percent target share and/or 200 targets?
While Jaxon Smith-Njigba
proved his alpha worthiness in 2024 and should be poised for even
better things in 2025, it is still fair to wonder if Sam
Darnold will be a one-for-one replacement for Geno
Smith. Furthermore, new OC Klint Kubiak will prioritize the
running game much more than former OC Ryan Grubb did. Will the
Seahawks throw enough to get JSN to 150 targets and will Darnold
prove he had as much to do with his career resurgence as Vikings
HC Kevin O'Connell did?
Staying in Seattle, it is apparently Year 2 of the Kenneth Walker takeover. Although many have a right to be leery about Zach Charbonnet handling more work after what he did in Walker's stead last season. Let me be clear about this: if Walker is healthy, he will get the work he needs to be a fantasy RB1. The outside zone scheme that Kubiak prefers should hide some of the shortcomings of Seattle's middling offensive line and accentuate Walker's skills. The Seahawks should block better than they did last year as a result and Kubiak should stick to the run more than Grubb. Therefore, the main question I have - and one that will not be answered until midway through the season - is if his revamped offseason regimen will be the thing that puts an end to muscle sprains that have plagued him early in his pro career.
Tetairoa McMillan has been a favorite of mine since I first laid eyes on him this spring. My initial projection for him (80-plus catches, 1,000-plus yards and seven touchdowns - a trio of numbers that only nine rookie receivers have ever hit) may seem a bit optimistic, but he is the real deal. He debuts as a top 15 fantasy receiver on my board here and I do not see that changing. It should not take long for him to be considered one of the best contested-catch wideouts in the game. His huge frame, long arms and vice-grip hands should make him a go-to option as early as Week 1. He may struggle initially with press coverage on the rare occasion he sees it (mostly because he did not see it much in college), but that figures to be a temporary obstacle.
Ranking Tyreek Hill at 36 feels more like an obligation than something that seems like a good idea. He has overall WR1 upside, even at 31 years old. We know he is still as fast as any player in the league. Yet, does a wrist injury explain why he ranked 26th in separation score (0.101) and 29th in yards per route run (1.99) one year after 11th (0.180) and first (4.05) finishes in 2023 (minimum 200 routes)? Did Miami's anemic running game scare defenses so little last year that opponents were content with the Dolphins checking down to Achane and Jonnu Smith seemingly every other play? Did Miami do enough to get defenses out of their Cover-2 and Cover-4 shells? That is debatable. There is also a question of how "in" he is. If the Dolphins are 3-8 heading into their Week 12 bye (as I have predicted), will he become a distraction and/or check out?
The Titans made significant upgrades on the offensive line (Dan
Moore and Kevin Zeitler, as well as moving JC Latham back to his
more natural right tackle spot) and at quarterback (Cam
Ward). We should also remember that Calvin
Ridley is a player HC Brian Callahan stated he wanted to play
in the Ja'Marr
Chase role after signing him a year ago. Ward is not Joe
Burrow and Ridley is not Chase, but we should not dismiss
how impressive it was that Ridley topped 1,000 receiving yards
last year despite catching passes all season from Will
Levis and Mason
Rudolph. (Ridley ranked 139th among 154 qualified pass-catchers
in catchable ball rate (67.5 percent). Tennessee should be a much-improved
offense this year and Ridley will be in the best offensive environment
he has been in since at least 2020 or 2021. If Ward is even the
16th-best quarterback in the league this season, Ridley will be
a top-20 fantasy receiver. (I have as WR19 above.) If Ward is
better than advertised and this year's C.J.
Stroud, then Ridley probably belongs in the same area as Garrett
Wilson.
Three Stars (48-63)
This is an interesting tier because so many arguments can be made to bump them up at least a tier. Virtually every receiver in this group feels like they are being mispriced.
The drumbeat coming out of Detroit surrounding Jameson
Williams is too strong. Amon-Ra
St. Brown isn't going to surrender his alpha receiver throne
in the Motor City anytime soon, but we began to see last season
that Williams' emergence was coming at the expense of Sam
LaPorta (until the defense began falling apart at the seams).
It appears new OC John Morton is prioritizing more deep throws
and talking up Williams' ability to run every route, which would
seem to suggest more short routes (while keeping his role as a
field-stretcher) and more targets are in his future. He still
has yet to play a full season, so some caution is warranted. With
that said, Williams seems like an excellent WR3 or WR4 in a receiver-heavy
build in the fifth round. He should be expected to push for 70
catches (58 last season), 1,100-plus yards receiving (1,001) and
perhaps even 10 touchdowns (seven).
The next player I want to discuss is almost impossible to slot, if only because he is a near-lock to miss games due to suspension. My formula accounts for and punishes players for missing games, which is why Rashee Rice finds himself in the fifth-round area. My projection for Rice is missing four games under the NFL's Personal Conduct Policy, which makes him a hard sell in the third round of fantasy drafts. The suspension projection could end up being on the low end as well (maybe six games?), which means managers could be taking a zero for nearly half of the fantasy regular season. That is too steep a price - at least until we learn what the suspension length actually is - to be taking Rice ahead of receivers such as DK Metcalf and George Pickens, each of whom should be steady WR2s.
Rome Odunze
seems too high and too low. Odunze might be too low because he
likely projects as the team's top red zone weapon and should benefit
from softer coverage than teammate D.J.
Moore. With better offensive line play almost guaranteed,
there should be more opportunities for Caleb
Williams to take advantage of Odunze's field-stretching ability.
On the other hand, Moore is a run-after-catch stud who should
serve as an "easy button" at times. Despite all the negative talk
surrounding him this offseason, Moore is still a very good NFL
receiver.
Let's wrap up this week with some rapid-fire analysis with some of the other players from this tier who feel too low.
James Cook is unhappy with his contract and due for some major negative touchdown regression. Ray Davis is waiting in the wings as well. Even after scoring 18 times a year ago, he only finished as the overall RB8. I do not see a likely scenario in which he is a top 10 back again in 2025.
RJ Harvey appears
likely to play the "Alvin
Kamara role" in Denver this season. That does not mean, however,
that he is the next Kamara. As long as J.K.
Dobbins can stay healthy, it is difficult to imagine Denver
having enough touches in the backfield for both backs to be considered
every-week starters. Harvey should obviously be considered the
favorite of the two to do it more often (because he should be
highly active in the passing game), but I do not think a young
Kamara-like 80-plus catches is in his immediate future.
Chris Olave is a certifiable stud. His concussion history is the most likely reason his fantasy stock has taken a hit this summer. With that said, that may only be half of the reason to drop him in the fifth- or sixth-round range. One of Tyler Shough or Spencer Rattler will likely emerge as the starting quarterback in New Orleans this summer, and I am not sure I can imagine either one supporting a top-20-25 receiver. Combined with his injury history, it makes sense to play this one cautiously.
Travis Hunter is unlike any player we have had to predict in the history of fantasy football. Fantasy managers probably should not question his endurance. They definitely do not question his talent. The thing that should concern any of us is how both of those qualities could be his downfall as a fantasy option. Hunter had trouble holding up for a full season in college playing both ways, so why should we expect that to change in a more physical league? Moreover, how many weeks will it take before his 100-plus plays per game zap his explosiveness? Will it happen in November? December? It is almost certain it will happen.
Consider me all aboard the Evan Engram train. While it is a bit hilarious how much play the "Joker" term has received in recent years, it is a great thing for fantasy football when HC Sean Payton decides he has one. Think about Jimmy Graham, Kamara or even Reggie Bush. The NFL is a mismatch league and the "Joker" is about having a player who creates mismatches. After initially struggling with durability during his early years with the Giants, Engram has logged at least 15 games in four of the last five seasons. The amazing thing is that even in last year's disappointing Jacksonville offense, Engram was on an 89-catch, 689-yard pace and two-touchdown pace. While I will acknowledge the two-touchdown pace is far from ideal, the other two numbers were comparable to Jonnu Smith's a year ago. This season's Broncos figure to be much more explosive than last year's Jaguars, so we should probably expect Engram's TD numbers to increase significantly. As the likely "Joker" in this offense, we should probably expect his catches and receiving yardage to spike as well.
Note: Due to my annual trip to Ohio for the King's Classic and the Fantasy Football Expo, you will see nothing but Big Boards between now and Aug. 19. When I return to writing in a couple of weeks, I intend on spending more time on players after the 10th round (when most fantasy teams have secured their starters).
Doug Orth has served as an analyst for FF Today since 2006 and
joined the Fantasy Points team before the start of the 2024 season.
He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who has not experienced
a losing money season in any of his 25 years in this hobby. Please
check him out on "The Football Diehards" podcast - courtesy
of Full Time Fantasy - on Wednesday nights with co-host JJ Wenner.