Notes:
- Fantasy points allowed rankings are from 2016. Rankings for 2017
will be used beginning next week.
- Green highllight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Welcome to the 2017 season everyone! As
is tradition, the defending Super Bowl champions open the season
at home with the Chiefs given the honor of heading to Foxboro.
Alex Smith is never a fantasy option, but he has two pass catchers
that certainly are: Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Kelce is coming
off the best season of his career where he finished as the PPR
TE2 despite being a nonfactor in the red zone (only four TDs).
The Patriots allowed the 25th most fantasy points to opposing
TEs last season, but Kelce is more WR than TE in this offense.
With the departure of Jeremy Maclin, Kelce is the de facto number
one wide receiver for Smith.
Bill Belichick is known for taking away the opponent’s top
weapon. For the Chiefs, that’s Tyreek Hill. I am a huge
Hill proponent and think he will be a WR1 in 2017. I am not sitting
him in any matchup, however, expectations must be tempered against
the Patriots. While Andy Reid will scheme Hill open and manufacture
touches for him, his true ceiling likely won’t be on display
against the Patriots’ elite defense. Chris Conley could
be a sneaky value play this week, but in Week 1, there’s
just no reason to get cute. Kelce and Hill are the only members
of this passing offense you need to concern yourself with.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: So much for
my prediction that Spencer Ware would hold off Kareem Hunt the
entire season. I’m giving myself a mulligan on Ware as one
of my undervalued running backs. Hunt now takes over for Ware,
but for some reason the perception is that he is going to immediately
see a greater workload than Ware was poised to see. I realize
that having Charcandrick West behind Hunt is far less imposing
than having Hunt behind Ware, but West is going to see the field.
Andy Reid is not giving Hunt 30 touches and we may see a little
C.J. Spiller in this contest too.
Hunt’s ADP has crept up to near RB1 territory and he will
need significant volume or a touchdown to get there. He may get
the former, but the latter is difficult to project as the Patriots
only allowed eight rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs
in all of 2016. Hunt is a good, not great player in a very good
situation. He is not a particularly impressive athlete and was
not dominant in college despite playing at a non-power five conference
school. That being said he will be useful every week, but matchups
will play a role in his weekly ceiling and Week 1 strikes me as
more of a floor game for the Chiefs starting running back.
Passing Game Thoughts: At the ripe young age of 40, (is he still
angry?) Tom Brady embarks on his 18th season looking as spry as
ever. Brady looked every bit like the top two QB he’s being
drafted as during his limited pre-season action. But, Brady will
be operating with a new set of tools in 2017. Julian Edelman (ACL)
has been lost for the season (and may have played his last snap
as a Patriot). However, Chris Hogan has a nice rapport with the
Patriots’ QB and looked quite capable of picking up the
slack once Edelman went down. Hogan strikes me as the most direct
beneficiary of Edelman’s injury, but I wouldn’t be
surprised to see increased slot snaps for Rex Burkhead or James
White. Danny Amendola is 32 years old and is made of glass. No
thank you. Rob Gronkowski is currently completely healthy. There’s
not much of a reason to discuss Gronk. When healthy, he’s
the best TE in football and in fantasy. You start him and you
love every minute of it.
Now let’s get to the man everyone wants to hear about: Brandin
Cooks. Brady’s newest toy is the most talented outside wide
receiver he’s had since Randy Moss and we all remember what
Brady and Moss (23 TDs in 2007) were able to do. That’s
not to say Cooks is anything like Moss as a player – he’s
not – but Cooks is one of the 5-10 most talented wide receivers
in the NFL right now and Belichick did not trade a first round
pick for Cooks to not use him. Cooks had a silent pre-season and
that worries me absolutely zero. I tend to believe Belichick was
hiding his best weapon. He knows what to do with Cooks and will
move him all over the field, getting him the ball in creative
ways. The Chiefs allowed the 15th most fantasy points to opposing
WRs last season but that doesn’t really matter. No one can
really stop the Patriots.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Running Game Thoughts: Full disclosure:
all of my thoughts here are complete conjecture. They’re
educated guesses based on my knowledge of the players and their
abilities. But the reality is that there are four legitimate options
in this backfield and we won’t really know how Belichick
plans to deploy them all until we see it. I will caution everyone
in advance to not overreact to how these running backs are used
in Week 1 because it could be a completely different story the
following week. Mike Gillislee is the presumed starter replacing
LeGarrette Blount. That’s probably accurate. Gillislee will
certainly see early-down and goal line work…but so will
Rex Burkhead. Burkhead is the most versatile RB on this roster.
He is a strong between the tackles runner and big enough to handle
goal line carries and possesses excellent hands. James White is
locked in as the main passing down back, but Burkhead can catch
as well. It would not surprise me to see formations with Burkhead
and White on the field at the same time – one in the backfield
and one in the slot. Dion Lewis has also looked fine this pre-season,
but he strikes me as the odd man out. He’s the third best
pass catcher on the team and the third best between the tackles
runner. He’s the best in the open field, but that’s
a very niche role. He might very well be a gameday inactive. The
best approach to this backfield is to wait and see. If I had to
rank their fantasy contributions in Week 1 it would be backs it
would be Burkhead-Gillislee-White.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Over the past three seasons, Ben Roethlisberger
averaged ten-fewer fantasy points per game on the road than at
the friendly confines of Heinz Field, including three away games
against Buffalo, Philadelphia, and Cleveland, in which he failed
to log a passing touchdown in 2016. Considering the familiarity
between the two teams and the fact that the Browns have ranked
near the bottom in the NFL in pass defense since 2014, it is surprising
that Big Ben and the Steelers have not been more successful against
Cleveland.
Negative game scripts based on weather, solid defensive play,
and large ground games by Le’veon Bell have all played a
part in stifling the fantasy production for Roethlisberger against
the Browns. With Bell looking to get his legs ready for game action
after missing all of training camp and preseason with a holdout,
and a forecast of a sunny 69 degrees in Cleveland on Sunday, two
of those negative factors may not affect Ben to start the season.
A healthy offensive line and the return of Martavis Bryant will
be a big boost, as Roethlisberger will have more time to stretch
the field with Antonio Brown, and Bryant gives him a big body
red zone threat who can actually catch the ball (sorry Sammie
Coates). Despite Ben’s recent struggles, Brown has averaged
an impressive 115 receiving yards and just over 23 fantasy points
per game in his last seven matchups against Cleveland, making
a weekly must-start even more attractive Week 1.
The release of veteran cornerback Joe Haden vaulted journeyman
Jamar Taylor to the starting right cornerback role opposite of
Jason McCourty. Although Haden is a shell of his former self,
his absence from the Cleveland secondary is a positive for the
Pittsburgh passing game. In addition, first overall pick Myles
Garrett suffered an ankle injury in practice on Wednesday and
will miss his first NFL game.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Running Game Thoughts: Although Bell has yet to play in a preseason
game after holding out on signing his franchise tender until September
1st, he is an obvious must-start play against a Cleveland team
that finished 31 out of 32 teams last year against the run. Only
one time in Bell’s NFL career has he failed to post at least
100 total yards or a score against the Browns, including his last
meeting in Week 11 of 2016 when he scored 26 fantasy points.
The only concern from a fantasy perspective with Bell would be
a negative game script in which the Steelers can limit his touches
due to a lopsided score. It would make sense for the coaching
staff to ease in Bell should the Steelers go up big early, as
there is always the concern for injury when a skill position player
misses training camp and preseason reps.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Rookie DeShone Kizer makes his NFL debut
against a quarterback he looked up to as a big-armed and mobile
quarterback growing up in Northern Ohio. The former Notre Dame
Fighting Irish QB beat out Brock Osweiler and Cody Kessler to
earn the starting job for head coach Hue Jackson. Kizer flashed
his elusiveness and his powerful arm in preseason action against
backup defenses while making ill-advised throws that one would
expect of a rookie.
His rapport with former first round pick Corey Coleman was evident
throughout the preseason and should carry over into week one,
making Coleman a sneaky play in deeper formats. The Steelers picked
up cornerback Joe Haden when the Browns released him late August
and Mike Tomlin has inserted him into the starting left cornerback
role. Look for Hue Jackson to exploit his former player, utilizing
his intimate knowledge of Haden’s shortcomings in coverage,
including a few deep shots with Coleman.
Kenny Britt’s addition to the passing game gives Kizer
a big-bodied target opposite of Corey Coleman. Britt joined the
Browns this offseason via free agency after posting his the first
1000-yard season of his career as a member of the Rams. The former
Rutgers star will once again be forced to play with a rookie quarterback
after spending the previous season catching errant passes from
Jared Goff.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: Head coach Hue Jackson has mentioned more
than once this off-season that he made a mistake last year of
getting away from Isaiah Crowell and the run game, and that running
the ball behind the Browns’ revamped offensive line will
be an area of emphasis this year. Crowell averaged an impressive
4.8 yards per carry last season on 198 carries for 952 yards and
seven scores, although his YPC average is a bit skewed due to
a few large runs, including an 85-yard score against Baltimore
Week 2 and a 67-yard scamper against Pittsburgh Week 16. Duke
Johnson is an interesting option in that he is the primary pass
catching back who has been working in the slot this summer. A
possible negative game script for the Browns could force Jackson
to abort his plan to pound the ball with Crowell, making Johnson
a viable flex option in deeper leagues.
Passing
Game Thoughts: When healthy and able to move outside the
pocket to extend plays for Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham, Russell
Wilson is a deadly weapon in the passing game and an elite fantasy
option, especially in choice matchups against a dreadful defense
like Green Bay. Only the Saints allowed more passing yards than
the Packers in 2016, and the changes at corner back to Davon House
and Quinten Rollins should help, but all signs point to Green
Bay struggling against the pass once again in 2017. Starting Doug
Baldwin and Jimmy Graham are no brainer moves Week 1, as the Pack
also struggled against TE’s last year (13th-most fantasy
points allowed). But one sneaky move that may be a game-winning
play is starting Paul Richardson, an under-the-radar guy (10%
ownership in Yahoo) who is the starting wide receiver opposite
of Baldwin. With Green Bay shading safety help over to Baldwin,
Richardson looks to be a high floor play with 100-yard and 1TD
upside.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: The running game options for the Seahawks
are nothing short of a flaming bag of poo right now, or perhaps
a dumpster on fire. Thomas Rawls is technically the starter with
Eddie Lacy, C.J. Prosise, and Chris Carson backing him up. But
Rawls is limited, and there is always the revenge game narrative
that the former Packer will have a big game against his former
team. Rookie Carson has looked like the most talented back this
summer, while Prosise is without a doubt the best receiving option
out of the backfield, and should receive action on third/passing
downs. To make matters worse, gum-chewing Pete Carroll won’t
commit to one runner, making the Seahawks backfield a situation
to avoid if possible. If forced to choose one back to play this
week, I would go with Lacy scoring a TD, but the yardage will
not be there to make him a top-10 play.
Passing
Game Thoughts: There is no circumstance in which you would
bench a healthy Aaron Rodgers, which includes a Week 1 matchup
against Seattle. Sure, the matchup is not great, but Rodgers dropped
a 246/3 line against the Seahawks in Seattle last season (It should
be noted that Earl Thomas was injured for the game). Wide receiving
options Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams also take a hit against
Seattle, but they are still must-start options who have tempered
expectations. Although Seattle allowed the fourth-fewest points
to opposing tight ends last season, it would not surprise me to
see newly acquired TE Martellus Bennett score an opening week
TD in front of the Packer faithful.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: There was hope among many in the fantasy
community that rookie Jamaal Williams would run away with the
starting tailback job, as he was projected to be a more well-rounded,
traditional back that Ty Montgomery. The former BYU star did not
do much to impress coaches and fans, while Montgomery has looked
solid and was named the clear starter by head coach Mike McCarthy.
Running lanes might be tough to come by in this game because the
Packers lost one of their better run blocking lineman in TJ Lang
and the already talented Seattle line got even better with the
addition of Sheldon Richardson. But as is the case with Montgomery,
he will still have excellent value in the passing game and should
provide low-end No.1 or high-end No.2 value even in a difficult
matchup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Vikings allowed the seventh-fewest points
to opposing QBs and the fourth fewest points to opposing wide
receivers in 2016, and the majority of players are returning to
the Mike Zimmer defense in 2017. A closer examination of the Vikings’
stats from last year reveals a team that played well against suspect
offenses like Houston and Chicago but allowed a fair amount of
points to elite players like Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, and Cam
Newton. Drew Brees certainly fits into that category and should
be able to put up a solid stat line in what should be a high-scoring
Monday Night game.
Michael Thomas is still a No.1 fantasy wide receiver this week,
but his matchup against Xavier Rhodes is something to consider.
Assuming he doesn’t drop every pass thrown his way, Ted
Ginn Jr. is an excellent option this week with Brees targeting
him deep on play action. The three-game suspension of Willie Snead
opens the door for Coby Fleener to get more work in the middle
of the field against Viking linebackers. When Snead was out in
2016, Fleener posted two of his best games of the season.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: Just like Eddy Lacy returning to Green
Bay, there is a widespread narrative in the fantasy circles that
head coach Sean Payton will give Adria Peterson every chance possible
to score against his favorite team. I’m not so sure I buy
this narrative because Payton is an offensive minded coach obsessed
with taking advantage of an opponents’ weakness and stopping
the run is not something a weakness of the Vikings. Yes, you should
start Peterson, but don’t be surprised if Mark Ingram is
the better runner and scores more fantasy points. Based on what
I watched in preseason action, Ingram looks like the better back
at this point in his career and Payton will always side with the
better player.
Passing
Game Thoughts: This is without a doubt the best matchup
on paper for the Vikings this season, as the Saints were the worst
defense against the pass last year and have done little to improve
their awful secondary. If you are one of the unfortunate souls
who drafted Jameis Winston late in your draft only to have him
lost for Week 1 due to hurricane Irma, a home game against the
Saints could make Sam Bradford and his huge shoulder pads a viable
option.
Stefon Diggs is a top 12 play this week based on his choice matchup,
the fact he is healthy (that won’t last), and he has been
a dominant player on MNF/SNF in his young career. Adam Theilen
and Kyle Rudolph will continue to do well as the underneath options
for Bradford, as the Saints’ lack of a pass rush will force
Dennis Allen to blitz and open the door for the check down king
to check it down to his favorite targets.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Running Game Thoughts: Dalvin Cook owners will be on cloud nine
when this game ends, with their rookie running back likely finishing
his first NFL game with 100 total yards and a score. I am still
in the Cook doubter camp based on the logic, or lack thereof,
that the former Florida State star is too small to be an every
down back, but I am all in on Cook this week against the Saints.
The opposing narrative of Minnesota wanting to prove that moving
on from AD to Cook was a smart move could be in play here, with
OC Pat Shurmur showcasing their new weapon on the MNF stage. Regardless
of doubts you might have on Cook’s longevity, and which
narrative will play out, there is no doubt that the Saints at
home is an excellent matchup and the rookie will no doubt cook
and eat against the hapless Saints (pardon the pun).
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Jags have already benched Blake Bortles
once during the preseason so fantasy owners should not feel very
confident in his ability to light the world on fire as he opens
the year on a short leash. Their opponent this week adds another
negative to the Week 1 fantasy potential of the Jags. The Texans
allowed the second fewest passing yards per game in 2016 despite
having the sixth fewest sacks. Anyone not related to Blake Bortles
should keep him benched (if he is even owned in your league).
That also means Allen Robinson owners will have their first of
many tough lineup decisions this year. In his two games against
Houston last season, Robinson was solid in one (9-107-1) and stunk
in the other (2-15). The number of targets shouldn’t be
an issue but the quality of targets could have you scratching
your head by halftime. Allen Hurns and T.J. Yeldon represent the
next best options in the passing game. Neither guy was drafted
to be your Week 1 starter so unless you are short-handed due to
the MIA-TB bye keep them on the sideline.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: The key to
the entire offense is the Jacksonville ground game. Leonard Fournette
is going to get the early down work with T.J. Yeldon getting time
on passing downs. Fournette dealt with a left foot injury over
the second half of the preseason but all signs point to him being
a full go against Houston on Sunday. This game could easily become
a defensive battle leading to plenty of touches and a solid RB2
type of day for the rookie. It might not happen more than once
in this game, but the Jags may give Fournette the ball three or
even four times if they get inside the five. Yeldon is only an
option for PPR purposes as the few carries he sees probably won’t
amount to much yardage against the Texans front seven.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Houston needs Tom Savage to be a “game
manager” type of quarterback and he should be effective
in that role this week. Savage enters this game without a single
touchdown pass to his name and the pressure of being the starting
quarterback for the first time since college. He is going up against
a young talented secondary that could easily force him into a
few mistakes so the ceiling isn’t too high for fantasy purposes.
Like Allen Robinson on the other side of the field, DeAndre Hopkins
is trying to rebound from a subpar 2016 season. The outlook is
similar – he should lead the team in targets, but will it
be enough to make him anything more than a flex play? The quarterback
situation should be better with Savage under center, but Hopkins
didn’t score in either of his two games against the Jags
last year despite seeing 30 targets. Jaelen Strong and C.J. Fiedorowicz
will get worked into the passing game as well. Nevertheless, how
many passes can fantasy owners really expect to see if the Texans
lean on their rushing attack and defense to win this matchup?
This is the same coaching staff that finished the 2016 regular
season with the fourth fewest passing attempts in the NFL and
still made the playoffs.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Running Game Thoughts: It’s
a fresh start to the season and Lamar Miller owners can only hope
he doesn’t wait until Week 6 to score his first touchdown
again! Houston will feed him the ball early and often as they
work try to take the pressure off Tom Savage. Miller’s workload
makes him a solid bet to go over 100 yards rushing while adding
a few receptions along the way. Even if he doesn’t score,
there should be enough yards to make him a top ten fantasy option
for Week 1. Rookie running back D’Onta Foreman and Tyler
Ervin may see a few snaps but neither is a fantasy option this
week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Derek Carr opens this season trying to build
off a solid 2016 season. Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree are
great targets out wide and DeAndre Washington and Jared Cook are
more than capable of helping Carr perform well against last season’s
second worst pass defense (tied with Packers and Panthers with
269.2 passing yards allowed per game). Even if Tennessee’s
revamped secondary is better, Carr shouldn’t have any issues
performing like a QB1 to open the 2017. Start both Cooper and
Crabtree with confidence and keep an eye on Seth Roberts’
targets. Roberts isn’t a flex play for Week 1 but the third-year
wideout could turn into a quality depth option for fantasy owners
in deeper leagues if Carr takes this offense to the next level
in 2017. Jared Cook is better in real life than in the fake game.
He is coming into a new offense on a team full of better options,
including near the goal line.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Running Game Thoughts: If you stuck
your neck out to land Marshawn Lynch this season, you are certainly
plugging him into your lineup this week with hopes that he will
be the same guy he was before leaving the game after an abbreviated
2015 regular season. Oakland is not going to give him the ball
30 times a game but he may only need 15 touches behind this offensive
line to produce steady RB2 numbers. He draws a favorable matchup
and is probably the healthiest he will ever be this season so
enjoy the ride while it lasts. With Lynch healthy neither DeAndre
Washington nor Jalen Richard carry any fantasy appeal this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Raiders will try to put up points early
to force the Titans to play catch up which is good for the Titans’
passing game this week. The addition of Eric Decker will make
things easier for quarterback Marcus Mariota. Decker has been
dealing with an ankle injury but returned to practice on Tuesday
and is slated to start. His presence on the outside will help
the Titans in the red zone and should give the rest of Tennessee’s
pass catchers a little more room. This should help pad Mariota’s
fantasy line but it means that Decker, Mathews and Delanie Walker
will have to split up those stats. All are worth starting this
week but predicting where the touchdowns may go is a crapshoot-especially
with a running game that will get opportunities near the goal.
Rookie wideout Corey Davis missed a large chunk of time this preseason
with a hamstring injury. He has returned to practice and will
see the field this weekend, however he is not quite ready to take
on a full workload and is a risky play for Week 1.
OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Running Game Thoughts: The Titans
have made the offense more well-rounded coming into 2017 but they
are built around the rushing attack. Tennessee will try to use
the rush to milk the clock and keep Oakland’s offense off
the field. DeMarco Murray missed time this preseason with a hamstring
injury but he returned to game action and is practicing without
issue heading into this weekend. The coaching staff proved last
season that they are not afraid to give DeMarco Murray a featured
back role in this offense despite the fact they have a talented
backup on their roster. Derrick Henry may become a factor later
in the year but Murray has top five fantasy RB potential right
out of the gate. It’s probably best to keep Henry on your
bench this week but he remains a threat to vulture touchdowns
this season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Colts will start the season in unfamiliar
situation with Scott Tolzien at quarterback. Tolzien came to Indianapolis
in 2016 and started just one game, completing 22 of 36 pass attempts
for 205 yards and one touchdown with two interceptions. He also
took three sacks and fumbled once in the 21-point blowout loss
at home to the Steelers. While the 2017 Rams don’t have
nearly the type of offensive firepower the Steelers do, it’s
hard to imagine that this game is going to be substantially better
for the Colts who really have not significantly improved anywhere
on the offensive side of the ball. Receivers T.Y. Hilton and Donte
Moncrief remain in limbo with fantasy owners not having much confidence
in the quarterback situation. Even tight end Jack Doyle, who would
seemingly benefit from a less experienced QB as a checkdown option,
doesn’t look particularly appealing at the moment. Doyle
was targeted just twice in the game Tolzien started in 2016 while
Hilton was targeted just five times. However, if you’re
looking for a silver lining as a Moncrief owner, he was the recipient
of 10 targets, six of which he caught, including the Colts’
only touchdown of the day.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Running Game Thoughts: One of the
most perennially disrespected names in all of fantasy football,
Frank Gore finished as a low-end RB1 in 2016, but is once again
being drafted outside of RB2 range in many leagues heading into
this season. Gore’s numbers are certainly far from flashy,
but his consistency has been hard to deny, even on a team that
is not particularly talented. While the injury to Luck would theoretically
mean that the Colts are going to rely more on the run this week,
the Rams also know this will likely be the scenario. With Tolzien
unlikely to be able to exploit holes left open in the passing
game by stacking the box, look for the Rams to send the house
after Gore on just about every down. Gore had his worst fantasy
day of the 2016 in the one game that Luck missed. It’s hard
to predict touchdowns but with only four on the season in 2016
and facing a quietly tough Rams defense, it’s hard to have
much hope for big numbers from Gore here in Week 1. There is one
positive note for Gore, however, and it’s that superstar
defensive tackle Aaron Donald is expected to miss this week’s
game amid a contract holdout. Donald is widely considered to be
the best interior defensive lineman in all of football and it’s
a big relief for the mediocre Colts offensive line that they will
not have to deal with him on every down.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s fair to say that the rookie season
for 2016 No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff did not go nearly as smoothly
as the team had hoped. Things were so bad that many analysts are
already completely writing him off as having even the potential
to be a decent NFL quarterback. In 2017, the Rams have done their
best to give their young QB a chance. They added the top two options
in the Buffalo passing game from a season ago, Sammy Watkins and
Robert Woods, while also drafting a supremely efficient slot receiver
in Cooper Kupp who has already impressed this preseason. While
none of that has materialized into Goff suddenly looking like
a star behind center, the hope is that these players will eventually
get some chemistry going which will back defenses off and allow
the team to do what they’re more built to do - run the football.
The Rams will also get a bit of a break here in Week 1 as the
Colts will be without perhaps their best defensive player, cornerback
Vontae Davis, who will miss the game with a groin injury. That
strongly benefits Watkins who may be getting his best matchup
this season, at least on paper, against this weak Indianapolis
secondary.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Running Game Thoughts: Todd Gurley
was one of the biggest disappointments of the 2016 fantasy season,
but there is hope for him here in Week 1 against a bad Indianapolis
defense that finished in the bottom ten in fantasy points given
up to opposing running backs in 2016. The Colts seemed helpless
at times against the run, having given up 10 games of 100-or-more
rushing yards to opposing backfields. With Indianapolis unlikely
to put up enough points on the board to pull away in this game,
look for the Rams to lean heavily on Todd Gurley, perhaps even
getting out to a lead themselves allowing Gurley the opportunity
at a high-end RB1 performance. The matchups don’t get much
better than this, so if Gurley is going to have the bounceback
season that many predict, he’ll likely get started on it
here in Week 1.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After an MVP season in 2015, it’s
safe to say that Cam Newton’s 2016 season was a huge letdown
not just from a fantasy standpoint, but also from the standpoint
of the Carolina Panthers franchise. While Newton was certainly
bad, it’s worth considering that he also has one of the
safest jobs in all of football and he’s now reportedly healthy
and without restriction heading into a Week 1 matchup against
a less-than-stellar San Francisco defense. The Panthers added
a few new playmakers on offense this off-season, including running
back Christian McCaffery who is known for his pass catching ability
and wide receiver Curtis Samuel. Newton’s best asset for
fantasy owners remains his legs, which might actually be improved
now that the QB has worked on his own conditioning which has led
to him trimming down to around 245 lbs - the lowest playing weight
of his pro career. Wide receivers Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess
are expected to start out wide but neither has shown much of an
ability to put up fantasy points aside from a touchdown here or
there. The real target in this offense remains tight end Greg
Olsen who has is an elite option at the position in just about
any matchup.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: All the fantasy
hype in this backfield is surrounding rookie running back Christian
McCaffery who is expected to have a significant role in the offense
starting in Week 1. McCaffery showed some serious explosiveness
against NFL defenses this preseason and his skill set is undeniable
as a potentially huge fantasy asset especially in PPR formats.
McCaffery may need some time to work into the team’s base
offense, but expect the Panthers to draw up at least a few plays
specifically designed to get him the ball in space in this game.
Still, despite the well-deserved praise that McCaffery has received,
the Panthers remain diligent in their assertion that Jonathan
Stewart will remain the team’s “starting” running
back, at least early in the season. Stewart has been underwhelming
as a fantasy contributor for quite some time, but there is reason
to be optimistic that he could at least be the beneficiary of
some goal line work against bad defenses like the one they face
here in Week 1. The 49ers gave up the most fantasy points to opposing
running backs in the entire league this past season - and by a
wide margin. They gave up a whopping 27 total touchdowns to the
position and over 2,300 rushing yards - over 300 more than any
other team. Sure, the 49ers will have some key pieces back on
defense, but the core unit here is not very good. Both Stewart
and McCaffery have to be considered potential fantasy assets going
into Week 1, but both will also vulture opportunities from the
other, making them risky plays until we see how their usage shakes
out.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The name Brian Hoyer doesn’t exactly
scream excitement for fantasy owners, but there is reason for
optimism in this San Francisco passing game that has been dreadful
for the past few seasons. Hoyer himself hasn’t put up particularly
great numbers throughout his career, but what he has done is been
able to get the ball to his team’s top target, including
DeAndre Hopkins during his breakout season of 2015. Hoyer has
looked surprisingly good this preseason and he seems to be locked
in with top receiver Pierre Garcon who also joined the team this
off-season. The Panthers gave up the seventh-most fantasy points
to opposing wide receivers in 2016 and without another proven
target on the roster, Garcon looks to be in line for a potentially
huge workload in Week 1 and throughout the season as a whole.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Running Game Thoughts: Running back
Carlos Hyde’s average draft position has been all over the
place. Rumors that he could be a surprise cut from the roster
circulated about a month ago and while that didn’t happen,
it did enough to drop Hyde down fantasy boards to the point that
he became a value in just about every league. Rookie running back
Joe Williams was supposedly “Kyle Shanahan’s guy”
according to some beat writers, but Williams was placed on IR
with an ankle injury which certainly locks Hyde in as the feature
back in the 49ers offense. Rookie Matt Breida is expected to step
in as the primary backup, but he won’t be utilized much,
especially in Week 1 as he continues to learn the playbook and
his role in pass protection. Hyde is suddenly one of the safer
picks in all of fantasy football and while his name doesn’t
bring much excitement, there is reason to be optimistic that teams
won’t be able to stack the box to stop him quite as much
this season as they have in recent years. The Panthers are a middle-of-the-road
run defense and Luke Kuechly will certainly be keyed in in Hyde,
but Hyde has traditionally performed well early in seasons, so
there’s a real possibility that he puts in some nice work
for his fantasy owners this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Chargers have done their best to load
quarterback Philip Rivers up with plenty of targets in the passing
game this season. Unfortunately, the team’s first round
draft pick, wide receiver Mike Williams, is expected to miss Week
1 with a back injury that has kept him out much of the preseason.
Still, the team does have a plethora of weapons at their disposal,
including the now healthy Keenan Allen who has been Rivers’
favorite target when he’s been on the field since he came
into the league. The unfortunate thing is that we might not see
this offense clicking at full speed as they’ll be up against
perhaps the best secondary in all of football, the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos held Rivers to just 445 yards passing with three touchdowns,
while intercepting him three times in the two games these teams
played in 2016. Rivers has struggled against this defense for
quite some time and while the Chargers have attempted to make
improvements to their offensive line this off-season, it’s
hard to believe that the new unit will be ready to take on a pass
rush as good as the one that the Broncos will trot out in Week
1. Rivers always has the potential to put up nice numbers but
this is perhaps the toughest matchup on his entire schedule -
stay away if you have other similar options.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Running Game Thoughts: After not
scoring a single touchdown as a rookie in 2015, Melvin Gordon
got into the end zone an impressive 12 times in 13 games in 2016.
Now fully entrenched as the team’s feature back, Gordon
has been trusted as a first round fantasy pick in many leagues,
making him a hugely important piece of the fantasy puzzle here
in Week 1. Gordon performed admirably in both games he played
against the Broncos in 2016, rushing for a total of 205 yards
in those contests while adding 65 yards as a receiver and scoring
one touchdown. While the Broncos secondary is dominant, their
run defense took a big step back last season, as they fell from
7th-fewest fantasy points given up to opposing running backs in
2015 down to 18th in 2016. With Rivers being prone to turnovers
in his elder years, look for the Chargers to attempt to control
this game on the ground by feeding Gordon early and often, even
incorporating him in the passing game a bit. He’s a strong
RB1 play.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Seemingly the default winner of the starting
quarterback job in Denver, Trevor Siemian will begin his third
season as a pro at home against a division rival that he threw
just one touchdown against in two games in 2016. The Chargers
are quietly - like Denver - one of the league’s best pass
rushing teams and that does not help a young quarterback with
a limited skill set like Siemian. He does not have a history of
performing well while under pressure, so look for the Chargers
to bring the heat on him as often as possible. Los Angeles, then
San Diego, also quietly led the NFL in interceptions forced in
2016, which is certainly a result of their tremendous pass rush.
The Vegas odds indicate that this may be one of the lowest-scoring
games of the week, which could mean a tough day for wide receivers
Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders who both struggled against
the Chargers in 2016. Neither player caught a touchdown in either
contest and they both failed to reach even 80 yards receiving
in either game. The positive is that the Broncos still don’t
really have other viable options in their passing game so we at
least know who the targets are going to, but neither Broncos receiver
offers a whole lot of upside in this difficult matchup.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Running Game Thoughts: After a disappointing
2015 season, C.J. Anderson had been all but written off as a major
fantasy asset heading into the 2016 season. Justin Forsett was
supposedly going to take his job, then it was Devontae Booker.
While both of those players did get touches early in 2016, it
was Anderson who dominated the backfield, quietly scoring five
touchdowns in his first five games, including two 90-plus yard
rushing days, prior to being knocked out for the season with an
injury. Anderson is not an inspiring name on paper, but with Booker
out this week and only an aged Jamaal Charles pushing him for
carries, Anderson is a safe bet to get a good number of touches
on a week-to-week basis. He’ll have a nice matchup here
in Week 1 against a Los Angeles defense that gave up the fifth-most
fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2016. Anderson himself
did not fare particularly well on the ground in the one game he
played against the Chargers, but he was able to salvage his fantasy
day by making some plays in the passing game. Former Chargers
head coach Mike McCoy is now calling the plays in Denver so look
for him to exploit what he knows to be a not-so-great run defense.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Ravens had more pass attempts than any
team last season but that didn’t translate to fantasy success
for Joe Flacco who finished as a mid-range QB2. His two games
against the Bengals were both yawners, finishing as the QB28 in
Week 12 and QB25 in Week 17. Sure, Jeremy Maclin is in the mix
and Mike Wallace is a respectable outside threat but do we really
expect a significant change in the passing game? It’s a
hard sell especially given Flacco’s tight end security blanket
(Dennis Pitta) is out of football and no obvious replacement has
come forward. Throw in the fact the Flacco described his back
condition this week as “not ideal, but I feel good now”
and you’ve got a recipe for another low-end QB2 finish.
Ohh by the way, Flacco has thrown 16 TDs and 21 INTs in his career
against Cincinnati. Avoid the Ravens passing game this week if
possible.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Running Game Thoughts: The Ravens have chirped this off-season
about being committed to the running game and they might have
to do just that given the state of Flacco’s balky back.
Terrance West will get first crack at making some fantasy noise
but it’s difficult to get excited about a pedestrian talent
that’s averaging 3.9 yards per carry in his career. Danny
Woodhead has missed some time during training camp so it’s
difficult to imagine him being at full strength. That being said,
he should fit in well in an offense that makes a habit of dumping
off the running backs making him a viable Flex play in PPR leagues.
The Bengals haven’t allowed a Ravens’ running back
to crack 50 rushing yards since Justin Forsett pulled it off Week
1 of 2014. Kenneth Dixon (knee) did manage to find the endzone
during their Week 17 matchup last season which is a small sample
size reminder that the Ravens best running back is out for the
year.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton and the Bengals passing attacked
ranked in the bottom third in passing attempts last season and
didn’t fare too well against the Ravens with only two passing
TDs in two games. With only 18 TDs a season ago, Dalton is likely
due for some positive TD regression it may not come in this contest
with a low Vegas total (42.5) and against a defense that allowed
only three 300-yard passers a season ago. On the positive side,
there is A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert who both have a nose for
the endzone but only saw the field together three times in 2016.
Having both to start the season should prove beneficial for Dalton
who might just want to force-feed Green who has 604 yards and
6 TDs in his last five games against the Ravens.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Running Game Thoughts: Joe Mixon has been elevated to the No.1
running back role by fantasy owners ever since April, however
the team will trot out Jeremy Hill to start when the Bengals take
the field against the Ravens. You can also expect Giovani Bernard
to see action and while Mixon should rise to lead this running
back group at some point, his owners might be a little disappointed
with his Week 1 production. The three-headed running back monster
will be going up against a defense that gave up the 7th fewest
fantasy points to running backs last season allowing only 8 rushing
TDs. That being said, the running game should have plenty of opportunities
in game the Bengals figure to win at home against a banged up
Joe Flacco. Cincinnati has taken six of the last seven matchups
in this series.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Carson Palmer was a nice target for those
employing a late-round QB approach in drafts. Why? His early-season
schedule seems favorable with games against the Colts, Cowboys,
49ers, Eagles all before a Week 8 bye. Included, of course, is
Sunday’s matchup against the Lions who allowed the 5th most
fantasy points to quarterbacks last season and is dealing numerous
injuries on the defensive side of the ball. The Cardinals should
feature Larry Fitzgerald on short-to-intermediate routes with
the occasional deep ball look to John and Jaron Brown. Fitzgerald
is likely to run routes from the slot where the Lions are most
vulnerable John Brown has dealt with a quad injury during the
pre-season and will constantly battle his sickle-cell trait issue
but is expected to play in this game and makes for an interesting
Flex option.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: The overall
number one pick in the majority of fantasy leagues was David Johnson
and for good reason. He racked up 20 TDs, 80 receptions and scored
more fantasy points than any other running back, wide receiver
or tight end. He’s obviously in your starting lineup so
let’s move on. The Cardinals decided to part ways with veteran
Chris Johnson during final cuts leaving Kerwynn Williams as backup
behind David Johnson. Williams will have no stand-alone value
as Johnson is one of the true workhorse running backs in the league.
The Lions were decent against fantasy running backs last year,
giving up only 5 rushing touchdowns to the position. That being
sad, David Johnson is closest thing we have to being matchup proof,
so the Lions metrics against running backs don’t matter
much.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Lions offensive philosophy revolves
around Matthew Stafford throwing short-to-intermediate passes
to the likes of Golden Tate and running back Theo Riddick. It
served the Lions well last season, allowing Stafford to throw
a career-low 10 INTs and making Stafford a fantasy QB1 in the
process. However, Stafford did most of fantasy work against suspect
defenses like Indianapolis, Green Bay, New Orleans and Green Bay
again racking up 1413 yards and 10 TDs in those four games. He
didn’t fare as well against tougher competition, something
he’ll be faced with this Sunday. The Cardinals have given
Stafford fits over the years and don’t forget they led the
league in sacks (48) last season. Arizona will miss LB/S Deone
Bucannon (ankle), so perhaps the Lions will look to pick on rookie
Haasan Reddick with their quick running back tandem of Riddick
and Ameer Abdullah. One note, it appears rookie Kenny Golladay
(ankle) and T.J. Jones will be sharing the No.3 receiver spot
this week, throwing a wet blanked on the pre-season Golladay hype
train.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Running Game Thoughts: Speaking
of Abdullah, he’s a player to watch this week after missing
the majority of 2016 with a foot injury. The Lions suggested that
a 200-carry season is a possibility as Detroit’s lead back
should he remain healthy. We have to remember the Lions are a
pass-first team so Abdullah’s ceiling is a RB2. We also
know Theo Riddick will see a good chunk of third-down work and
makes for a nice PPR Flex play… I think. Riddick saw at
least 4 receptions in nine of his ten games played last year,
averaging 5.3 receptions per contest but the Cardinals were down
right stingy against running backs last giving up the fewest fantasy
points to the position, including a minuscule 385 receiving yards
to RBs, easily the best in the league. If you have similar options
for your flex spot, you might consider leaving Riddick on your
bench.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s hard to fathom Matt Ryan repeating
his QB3 performance from last when he tossed 38 TDs and nearly
threw for 5000 yards. Regression is coming but it doesn’t
have to start this week. It appears he’ll have a relatively
easy time of it against a ho-hum Bears team that lacks offensive
firepower to keep up the Falcons. Ryan will have familiar faces
to toss the rock to including Julio Jones, Mohamad Sanu, Taylor
Gabriel, and hype-train TE Austin Hooper but a new offensive coordinator
(Steve Sarkisian) could upset the balance and flow Kyle Shanahan
had built… we will see. The Bears defense is probably a
little underrated and actually performed well against fantasy
QBs last season allowing only Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Jameis
Winston to beat them for more than 300 yards. They also had respectable
outings against Jordy Nelson (W7, 1-9), Allen Robinson (Wk6, 3-49)
and Odell Beckham Jr. (Wk11, 5-46). I’m not expecting the
Falcons offense to lay an egg, but it might not be the cakewalk
you might think.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Running Game Thoughts: Much like
the passing, it will be interesting see how new OC Steve Sarkisian
utilizes Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. It sounds like he’s
doing his best to not mess with the system already in place and
prefers to run an up-tempo style. Check and check for fantasy
owners of Freeman and Coleman. Regardless of their usage, their
high efficiency last season will be difficult to duplicate, especially
Coleman who averaged an insane 13.6 yards per reception and scoring
11 times on only 149 touches. Freeman battled a concussion issue
during the preseason but has returned to practice and good to
go against a Bears defense that had some trouble stopping the
run a year ago even allowing Rashad Jennings a 21-85-1, 5-44 line.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Bears were dealt a serious blow to their
passing game in Week 3 of the preseason when WR Cameron Meredith
tore his ACL. In his place, Kevin White will become the defacto
No.1 option for Mike Glennon and eventually Mitchell Trubiksy.
Glennon will also be looking for Kendall Wright who won the slot
receiving role over Victor Cruz. Wright could see have a renaissance
season patrolling the middle of the field and could be heavily
used this week as likely won’t see much of Falcons DB Desmond
Trufant. Deonte Thompson figures to be on the outside opposite
of White but it’s difficult to project any fantasy value
for him, given the below average play at the QB position and of
the offense as a whole. It should be noted that Atlanta allowed
the most fantasy points to quarterbacks and the 13th-most to wide
receivers last season but it’s hard to imagine the Bears
capitalizing given the lack of firepower in their receiving corps.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: The running
game in Chicago starts and stops with Jordan Howard, but rookie
Tarik Cohen is starting to make some noise and is someone worth
watching early in the season to see how his role develops. For
now, he’s considered a change-of-pace back but could push
for a bigger role as the season rolls along. Benny Cunningham
was signed this off-season and could see some work on third downs,
reducing Howard’s value especially in PPR leagues. The Falcons
gave up the 10th most fantasy points to running back last season
thanks in part to 6 receiving TDs and the most receiving yards
allowed (870) to the position. Tarik Cohen anyone?
Passing
Game Thoughts: It just dawned upon me that I am going to
have to find encouraging things to say about the Jets’ passing
offense all season. This is going to be a challenge. Let’s
start with Josh McCown, the least terrible of the Jets trio of
terrible QBs. McCown was once good for a handful of games in 2013
when he had the likes of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery to
throw to. This Sunday, he gets Robby Anderson and Ardarius Stewart.
Anderson has flashed downfield ability and plays bigger than his
size, but he’s not a true number one wide receiver. Stewart,
or whoever lines up opposite of Anderson, is just a disaster.
The Jets are essentially rolling out third and fourth wide receivers
as their starters. Austin Seferian-Jenkins is probably their most
talented pass catcher, but he’s suspended for the first
two games. The Bills’ defense is one of the best streamer
plays of Week 1 because, as will be a theme this season, you’re
going to want the defense facing the Jets.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: Matt Forte actually looked alright in
his limited preseason action after missing the early portion of
August with various ailments stemming from being old. Forte will
be a nuisance for Bilal Powell’s value, but Powell is still
the only truly relevant member of this entire offense. Powell
should be the passing down back and see the majority of the carries.
Forte may steal red zone touches, which is a reversal of how he
was handled back when he was good, but that’s not much of
a concern since this team might break records for touchdown futility.
With a dearth of effective pass catchers, Powell could legitimately
lead this team in targets as McCown elects to dump the ball off
over and over again. Forte is unlikely to see enough work/stay
healthy in order to be useful.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tyrod Taylor certainly played well enough
last year to enter this season without having any concerns for
his job. Then he went and looked about as bad as possible in the
preseason, culminating with a game three concussion. Nate Peterman
is not particularly talented, but NFL teams seem to have an affinity
for the devil you don’t know. Taylor remains the starter
for now and will do something he’s all too familiar with
– operate without Sammy Watkins. This time, it’s permanent.
His No.1 wide receiver will very likely be rookie Zay Jones as
Jordan Matthews may need a little more time to recover from a
chip fracture in his sternum. It is unlikely we will know JMatt’s
status prior to the publishing of this article so be sure to keep
an eye on the injury report, which is the cleanest it will be
all season. If Matthews plays, it will likely be at less than
100% and he shouldn’t need to start for you in Week 1. Jones
is not an option regardless. I would just avoid this passing game
altogether, even against the clearly tanking Jets.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: The player you most certainly don’t
want to avoid is LeSean McCoy. The Bills have made one thing abundantly
clear: they are going to ride Shady until the wheels fall off.
The Bills have essentially rid themselves of any modicum of a
contingency plan behind McCoy. They let Mike Gillislee walk in
free agency and did not sign a true replacement, which we presumed
was because they viewed Jonathan Williams as that guy. Oops. Williams
was sent packing during final cuts. If McCoy were to go down,
there is no answer. Mike Tolbert? Joe Banyard? McCoy is going
to see a ton of volume and this game against the Jets projects
for a lot of positive game script. I can’t imagine the Bills
will ever be in a situation where they need to throw to catch
up. McCoy is a lock for over 20 touches and is a clear elite RB1
play. He could be in line for the best year of his career if he
can somehow stay healthy.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Carson Wentz is coming off an inefficient
rookie campaign where he was thrust into the starting role shortly
before the season began. In his defense, Jordan Matthews was banged
up for much of the season and Nelson Agholor spent way too much
time on the field. On the other hand, no one forced Wentz to actually
throw the ball to Agholor. Let’s get Agholor out of the
way right now. If you drafted him, shame on you. Moving on. The
Eagles’ biggest offseason moves were acquiring Alshon Jeffery
and Torrey Smith and then later trading away Matthews. Jeffery
has been an elite producer when on the field, but his history
of soft tissue injuries and his four-game PED suspension last
year are anything but encouraging. He is also going to see a lot
of Josh Norman this week. Smith is a downfield burner but hasn’t
been fantasy relevant since 2014 and it remains to be seen what
kind of rapport he has with Wentz. Zach Ertz is coming off of
a PPR TE3 finish and will operate as Wentz’s second target
in the passing game behind Jeffery. Ertz should have a high weekly
floor and should be just fine against Washington’s decidedly
average pass defense.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Running Game Thoughts: This backfield is a mess. It’s kind
of like the Patriots backfield, except without the talent. No
disrespect to Darren Sproles, who still stands to be the most
productive member of this backfield, but at 34 years old, he is
nothing but a bye week flier. LeGarrette Blount led the league
in rushing TDs last season (18) but that was likely a product
of New England’s offense over his talent. Now in Philly,
he will see fewer red zone opportunities and more runs out of
the shotgun, where he does not excel. Wendell Smallwood is “just
a guy.” As coach Doug Pederson said, this will be a week-to-week
RBBC making it difficult for fantasy owners to be confident in
any players value. The Redskins were fifth worst against opposing
running backs last year, but even if the Eagles get something
going on the ground, we have no way of knowing whether it will
be Sproles or Smallwood; or Blount falling into the end zone from
inside the five yard line. This will be a situation to avoid.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Kirk Cousins is coming off a QB5 finish
where he let the Redskins know that they need him. Nevertheless,
he was not given an extension and will play another year under
the franchise tag. Cousins is as good as gone after the season
and you bet he wants to stick it to the Redskins in the process.
The first team offense looked pathetic in the preseason, but all
that matters is that everyone is currently healthy – specifically
Jordan Reed. After missing practice time and the first two preseason
games with a toe injury, Reed returned in Week 3 of the preseason
and looked every bit like the TE that has led the league in FPts/G
over the past two seasons. Reed is a WR1 in the TE position for
as long as he can stay healthy.
The Redskins’ biggest off-season acquisition was signing
Terrelle Pryor away from Cleveland. Pryor is arguably the best
pure athlete in the NFL right now. His ability to transition from
borderline CFL level quarterback to polished wide receiver is
astounding. He runs crisp routes and has the size and athleticism
to make big plays downfield. He managed to achieve a 1,000-yard
season in Cleveland where he might as well have been receiving
passes from Bo Callahan (that’s a Draft Day movie reference
for those that may be confused). If Pryor can develop a quick
rapport with Cousins, his ceiling is as high as anyone’s.
There’s no reason he can’t be the Spock to Captain
Kirk. Last, but not least, we have Jamison Crowder, last year’s
WR38 by average PPR FPts/G. Yeah, he wasn’t nearly as good
as everyone thinks. He did post double-digit fantasy points in
11 games last season, though. If he didn’t get to double
digits, he didn’t top 6.5 fantasy points. With an every-down
role heading into this season, he should have a stable weekly
floor. Josh Doctson is irrelevant until further notice.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Running Game Thoughts: Rob Kelley is the clear starter entering
this season, but that doesn’t mean he should be starting
for you. Kelley’s athleticism is questionable at best. If
teams were doing a “fantasy draft” a la Madden franchise
mode style, Kelley probably wouldn’t go in the top 75. But
in fantasy, situation and opportunity trump talent…as long
as the situation and opportunity exist. For Week 1, Kelley has
the main running back role. After taking over the starting role
from Matt Jones in Week 8 last season, Kelley managed just a single
100-plus yard rushing game - Week 11 game at Green Bay where he
also scored three TDs. He caught just 12 passes all season and
will cede considerable snaps to Chris Thompson, especially if
this game becomes a shootout or if the Redskins fall behind. Kelley
is almost entirely dependent on touchdowns to produce and the
Eagles only allowed nine rushing touchdowns to opposing RBs all
of last season. The Redskins drafted Samaje Perine, who is capable
as both a pass catcher and a pass blocker. He can be a three-down
back. It is only a matter of time before his superior talent starts
eating into Kelley’s workload until the roles inevitably
swap. For Week 1, Kelley is still the guy. However, he’s
just not good enough or consistent enough to rely on.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Eli Manning did enough in both contests
last year to beat the Cowboys, the only two real losses of the
Cowboys’ season (Dallas rested everyone week 17). Since
last year, the Giants have added Brandon Marshall via free agency
and Evan Engram via the draft. Marshall looked to be quite done
last season, but knowing Marshall’s history, it’s
fair to consider he may not have been giving full effort given
his situation with the Jets. I am not a believer in the 33 year-old,
but I acknowledge that he could be a red zone force and be a touchdown
dependent WR3. Of course, that man could also be E-Double (my
nickname for Evan Engram). Engram’s athleticism is off the
charts. Granted, he’s probably cheating because he’s
really a WR masquerading as a TE, but that doesn’t matter
for us in fantasy. Engram is a matchup nightmare for slower and
smaller linebackers. He could be the rare rookie that makes an
immediate impact at the position and could be particularly important
if Odell Beckham either misses the game or plays at far less than
100%. Beckham sprained his ankle after Ben McAdoo inexplicably
decided that Beckham needed to play into the second quarter of
their meaningless second preseason game. Beckham has done light
work in practice, but officially has been a DNP through Thursday.
He is going to be listed as questionable on the official injury
report and is going to present a real problem for fantasy owners.
If he steps on the field Sunday night, you probably can’t
sit him. If I were a Beckham owner, I would hope he just sits
because there is no way he will be fully healed by Sunday. At
less than 100%, he could largely be a decoy. Make sure you have
a contingency plan in place in the form of Sterling Shepard, Cole
Beasley, or someone playing in either Monday night game just in
case Beckham can’t go. For what it’s worth, I do not
think Beckham plays.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Running Game Thoughts: The Giants
don’t really have a running game. Their offensive line is
still below average and Paul Perkins has yet prove he’s
capable of being a lead running back. I’m predicting a full
on Shane Vereen-Orleans Darkwa backfield by week 4 or 5. They
are just better at every aspect of football than Perkins. Vereen
had taken the starting job last year before his momentum was derailed
by a torn triceps muscle. Ultimately, I have to believe the Giants
are going to do whatever they need to do in order to try and win
this game. If that means throwing the ball a lot, then that’s
what they will do. That means a lot of Vereen. The Cowboys’
elite stats against opposing RBs last year were admittedly inflated
by their ball control style and constantly having leads, but the
fact remains that opposing RBs struggled leaving Perkins with
very little room to succeed. Vereen could be a sneaky RB2 PPR
play and it’s only a matter of time before he’s the
main guy in the backfield.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Will the Cowboys finish with the best record
in the NFC again? To that I say, “we’re going Dak
to Dak!” The Cowboys luckboxed their way into a true franchise
QB last year when their efforts to acquire Paxton Lynch and Connor
Cook failed, forcing them to “settle” for Prescott.
All Prescott did was win rookie of the year and come within a
hair of the NFC Championship game. However, he did struggle in
both of his games against the Giants last season. Two of his four
interceptions came in the second game and he threw just one touchdown.
He had 20 fantasy points or more in all but three games –
two of which were against the Giants. One difference this year
is that he will have a healthy Dez Bryant at his disposal. Bryant’s
numbers against the Giants last year: two catches for eighteen
yards on 14 targets across both games. He wasn’t fully healthy
in the second game, but there was no excuse for the first one.
He will see a lot of Janoris Jenkins Sunday night so this might
be a tough opener for Bryant. Jason Witten and Cole Beasley are
poised to lead the Cowboys in receiving as Prescott eats them
up underneath. Witten saw 21 targets across two games against
the Giants last year. He can still get open. I think we see more
of an open/classic style Cowboys-Giants game as opposed to the
low scoring versions we got last year.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: As I expected all along, Ezekiel Elliott
is playing Week 1. By the time you read this, we will probably
know Zeke’s fate for the rest of the season, but regardless,
he will be out there against the Giants. Expect him to handle
all the touches he can, including increased usage in the passing
game. The Giants were excellent against opposing RBs last year
and were actually responsible for Elliott’s two lowest scoring
games of the season. With that being said, volume is king and
the Cowboys still have an elite offensive line. You may only have
Zeke for one week before you lose him for the next six. You are
riding him with confidence.