After coming off a stint on the injured list, Patterson stepped
back into the lineup and back into the RB1 role on this team in
Week 9. Despite still platooning with Tyler Allgeier and Caleb
Huntley, he still led the team in carries and was the obvious
top target in the red zone with two scores. Oddly enough, he was
only targeted once in the passing game. Given that his natural
position is WR, I’d expect his role in that area will grow, and
he will continue to take more and more carries as he returns to
game shape. He’s a solid RB2 play this week.
Allgeier proved himself worthy of the RB1 spot on this team in
the absence of Cordarrelle Patterson. However, with Patterson’s
return in Week 9, the rookie was immediately relegated to backup
duty. Still, he turned in his best performance of the season with
99 yards on 10 carries. He also has four catches over the last
two games. He has proven he can carry a load with double digit
carries in all but one game this season. It would seem the Falcons
would be best served keeping him in that role and moving Patterson
back to his natural position of WR, giving Marcus Mariota another
much-needed target in the passing game. But HC Arthur Smith seems
determined to work Patterson primarily out of the RB spot, and
I fear that means Allgeier’s role will continue to diminish in
the coming weeks.
Mariota had his best game of the season against Carolina two
weeks ago, passing for a season-high 253 yards and three touchdowns.
That’s a little surprising because the Panthers have been
solid against the pass and are allowing less than 20.0 fantasy
points per game to QB’s this season. That game was likely
an anomaly, though Carolina’s defense has been torched in
the passing game two weeks in a row. Plus, HC Arthur Smith has
been unwavering in his commitment to the run. Mariota has had
25 pass attempts once in the last month and in this run-first
attack, he has no fantasy ceiling.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
After falling behind early, the Panthers were forced out of the
run game and it showed in Foreman’s numbers. A week earlier, he
had 118 yards on 26 carries against this same Falcons team, which
is giving up 4.5 yards per carry on the season and has allowed
11 TDs on the ground. Foreman is in line for a bounce back game
and is an RB2 play in my lineup.
The Falcons are allowing the 2nd-most fantasy points per game
to WR’s this season (29.1). That’s a big number. The question
is whether Moore can take advantage. He has had a good rapport
with QB P.J. Walker since his emergence as the starter (until
last week’s blowout loss to the Bengals when no one was any good),
and Walker will get the nod as the starter this week, despite
being benched last week. But these teams played a shootout two
weeks ago and defensive coordinators generally don’t allow that
sort of thing to happen twice in a row. Moore’s the top receiver
in this group, but I’m not sure he's in line for a repeat performance.
Walker had been solid as the starter for Carolina until last
week’s mid-game benching. He gets the call again on Thursday,
but will be on a short leash, especially with Baker Mayfield and
Sam Darnold (coming off the injured list) at the ready. There’s
too much risk here for limited fantasy value, even against a struggling
Falcons pass defense.
Walker has exploded onto the fantasy scene in Seattle with two
100-yard rushing efforts and two multi-score games in the last
three weeks. He’s also becoming a factor in the passing
attack with four catches over the last two games. The Bucs defense
is struggling and yielding over 4.5 yards per carry while getting
slashed by everyone except the Rams, who just don’t run
the ball. In an overseas game, during an unconventional week of
practice, HC Pete Carroll is going to keep it simple and run the
rock. Walker is a locked in RB1.
Many of us who lived through Geno Smith as a Jet are waiting
for the, “yeah, but…” moment to come. To his
credit, it hasn’t yet. He’s playing the best football
of his career, and over the last five weeks, has the 6th most
fantasy points per game among all NFL starters. But as mentioned
above, I think this is going to be a run-heavy attack this week,
and while Todd Bowles’ defense has struggled, they can create
pressure on the pocket, which has been a weakness in the past.
Old habits die hard, and I don’t know if I can trust Smith
in my lineup.
Walker is clearly the lead back in this group now, but the most
surprising numbers to come out of last week’s game were 21 and
2. That’s how many snaps Travis Homer and Dallas had, respectively.
Clearly, Dallas has no role unless Walker goes down with an injury.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Otton had the third-most fantasy points among TE’s last week
and is top eight in that category over the last three weeks, with
at least five targets per game over that span. Since taking over
for the injured Cameron Brate, he’s posted two 60+ yard efforts,
and this past week he found the end zone. He’s worked his way
into Tom Brady’s good graces, and despite Brate returning from
injury this week, I think Otton holds this spot and puts up TE1
numbers. Seattle brings pressure and Brady will be looking for
outlets to get the ball out of his hand.
Brady has put three decent games together, and this week faces
a Seattle defense that plays a lot of bend-don’t-break zone
behind a four-man rush. But that rush gets to the QB, especially
up the middle from the DT spots, and that’s the kind of
pass rush that hurts Brady the most. He hates pressure at his
feet that moves him off his spot, and the way he’s played
this season, I think he can be rattled in this one.
Fournette hasn’t had double-digit carries in a game in four weeks!
And while his five catches on seven targets were a positive last
week, his paltry 9-19 rushing line wasn’t even the worst day of
his season. With Rachaad White stealing more and more touches
by the week, Fournette is relegated to RB2 status.
Tight end David Njoku missed Week 8 and then had an opportunity
to sit during the Browns’ Week 9 bye, with hopes he’ll be returning
here in Week 10 for the matchup with the Dolphins. Njoku has been
quietly breaking out this season, having exceeded 50 receiving
yards in each of his past five contests. He’d be much higher on
seasonal rankings right now if he had only been able to sneak
into the end zone a bit more, as he’s scored just once so far
despite having over 400 yards receiving on the year. If he can
get back on the field this week, as he’s expected to, he’ll face
a Miami defense that has given up the third-most fantasy points
per game to opposing tight ends this season, including a pair
of touchdowns to Chicago’s Cole Kmet this past week.
While Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, and David Njoku have been getting
the majority of the love in this Browns offense from fantasy managers,
one other player has been quietly ascending and that’s wide
receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones. Peoples-Jones has now reached
50 or more receiving yards in six of his eight games, including
each of his past five, and he’s been able to contribute
some Flex-worthy PPR numbers despite not finding the end zone
yet this season. The Dolphins have given up six separate double-digit
PPR fantasy days to opposing wide receivers over their past four
contests, so another usable fantasy day for Peoples-Jones could
be incoming.
Browns running back Kareem Hunt was the focus of a lot of potential
trade talk over the past few weeks, but he ended up staying in
Cleveland. Now we have to come to the realization that he is a
player who’s failed to reach 15 fantasy points in every game since
Week 1 while falling below 10 points in now five of his past seven
contests. Nick Chubb has been one of the most dominant players
in all of fantasy football which has not allowed Hunt to get nearly
as many opportunities as he usually has, including as a pass catcher
where he hasn’t exceeded five targets in a game this season. His
usage just is not heavy enough to justify playing him against
a Miami defense that has allowed just one opposing running back
(Breece Hall) to reach even 80 rushing yards against them so far
this season, and even that took a single 79-yard run to accomplish.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Most believed that the Dolphins’ acquisition of Jeff Wilson at
the trade deadline was more of an insurance policy for the oft-injured
Raheem Mostert, but appears as if those expectations might have
been underselling the significance of the move. Wilson made his
debut with the Dolphins this past week and immediately commanded
a dozen touches while out-snapping Mostert on the day in what
was an extremely competitive game with the Bears. Certainly, this
was just a one-game sample size so we shouldn’t completely overreact,
but this is a great sign for Wilson’s potential going forward
as he was trusted by his former offensive coordinator in San Francisco
and current Miami head coach, Mike McDaniel. Wilson’s experience
in the system will allow him to avoid the concerns that many coaches
have when they add new players, and should lead to him getting
plenty of playing time.
Tight end Mike Gesicki’s 2022 season has been a rollercoaster,
as is the case with most tight ends. Gesicki’s has been
even more extreme than most, though, as he’s essentially
been completely useless for fantasy in any game where he’s
failed to score a touchdown. He’s scored four total times
in three of his nine games, but he’s been held to under
six fantasy points in each of the other six contests. The opportunities
are not there consistently as he’s only playing around 50
percent of the team’s snaps, and he’s failed to exceed
four targets in all but two games. Tight end remains a flaming
pile of garbage throughout the league and four NFL teams are on
byes, so there will be a lot of managers who just don’t
have better options than Gesiciki, but he’s not a very high
upside option and he essentially has no floor whatsoever.
We don’t want to completely overreact to a one-week sample
size, but fantasy managers who are rostering Raheem Mostert should
be very concerned right now that their running back is losing
a grip on his starting job. Wilson made his debut with the Dolphins
in Week 9 and immediately out-snapped Mostert, while also out-touching
him, albeit both by slim margins. Mostert has been held to fewer
than 10 PPR fantasy points in three of his past four contests
and while he’s shown the ability to break off big runs in
the past, his explosiveness was visibly lacking in comparison
to Wilson this past week. This looks like a good week to keep
him on your bench if you have other viable options until we get
a better understanding of what this backfield might look like
going forward.
Dulcich is averaging four catches per game and over 15 yards
per catch over the last three weeks. He’s on the field for over
80% of the Broncos offensive snaps, and he’s clearly become a
favored target of QB Russell Wilson. He’s entered TE1 territory
and is a strong play against the Titans who are top five in the
NFL is fantasy points allowed to the position.
Sutton has all but disappeared from the Broncos offense with
six catches for 50 yards combined over the last three games, and
he hasn’t scored a touchdown (his only touchdown of the
season) since Week 4. He hit rock bottom in Week 8 with only one
reception. Despite all that, as a desperate team, coming off their
bye, there has got to be a plan to get Sutton the ball. He’s
their most explosive weapon, and if the Broncos have any chance
of turning their season around, they’ve got to figure out
a way to get the ball in the hands of their playmakers.
It’s been a struggle for Gordon all season. But even though he’s
been the RB1 in Denver since the Javonte Williams injury, Latavius
Murray has been stealing touches and scoring opportunities from
Gordon. Now Chase Edmonds has been added to the mix. It’s looks
like Gordon could eventually be limited even more in the coming
weeks.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Henry hasn’t rushed for less than 100 yards in a game since
Week 3, and is the driving force behind the most run-dominant
offense in the league, especially the last two weeks with Malik
Willis at QB. He’s the only real full-fledged fantasy option
on this roster.
Tannehill has missed the last two games with an ankle injury,
but there are indications he could be back for this game as he
practiced in full on Friday. If he is, it could significantly
open up the Titans offense, especially with WR Treylon Burks reportedly
close to a return as well. But we won’t have a better idea until
Friday’s practice. Until then, he’s worth keeping on the watch
list this week against a Denver defense that no longer features
Bradley Chubb – a game changer.
Hooper has actually seen an uptick in production with six catches
for 95 yards over the last three games. But even with that, he’s
still splitting TE snaps with Geoff Swaim and Chigoziem Okonkwo.
He clearly isn’t ever going back to being the weapon he was earlier
in his career in Atlanta.
Although he entered the season as a no-brainer, Swift has once
again battled a spate of injuries. Ever since totaling 18 touches
in Week 1, the third-year pro has posted 10 or fewer in each of
his other four games, including last Sunday when he had five touches
while playing just 10 snaps -- for comparison, Williams played
38 and Justin Jackson logged 13. The Bears boast one of the NFL’s
worst run defenses, though, allowing 147.2 yards per game on the
ground, so there’s a chance that Swift could turn limited usage
into low-end RB3 or flex production. He’s a risk/reward play.
Surprisingly solid early on, Goff has tapered off quite a bit.
Over his last four games, the former No. 1 overall pick has averaged
229 yards, 0.75 TDs, and 1 INT per game. He’s been especially
bad on the road this season, throwing just one TD pass in three
contests away from Ford Field. Chicago ranks a respectable 10th
in pass defense on the year, and the loss of several weapons (such
as D.J. Chark and T.J. Hockenson) make an even stronger case for
keeping Goff on your bench.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
By this time next week, Fields may well be viewed as a no-brainer.
The Ohio State alum has run for 408 yards over his last four games,
during which the Bears have averaged 25 points, and he has posted
10 total TDs (seven passing, three rushing). Fields has cut down
on the sacks and negative plays as well, and while his throwing
numbers still don’t move the needle, you can’t bypass
that kind of rushing. Also, don’t let Detroit holding the
Packers to nine points in Week 9 distract you from a simple truth:
the Lions stink defensively. Fields is a strong QB1 here.
There’s no doubt Chicago’s running game is cooking
right now, and in the Lions, they find the NFL’s 31st-ranked
run defense (148.8 yards per game). The issue is that Fields is
the star attraction, making Montgomery and Herbert a bit more
volatile. Over the last four games, Herbert has averaged 10.5
carries for 64.5 yards, so he’s doing a lot without a ton
of work. The snap counts show this as well with Herbert logging
fewer than half of the snaps as Montgomery in three of those four
games. While Herbert does offer flex value, just be aware his
margin for error is smaller than his cohorts.
Wide receiver Brandin Cooks sat out in Week 9 for “personal
reasons,” after apparently being upset about not being traded
out of Houston at the deadline. Cooks is admittedly also dealing
with a wrist injury, which has kept him limited in practice since
returning to the team this week. He hasn’t been nearly the
high-level pass catcher this season that he has been in recent
years, so there’s a case to be made that Cooks is barely
startable to begin with, but now he’s facing a Giants secondary
that has given up six separate double-digit PPR days to opposing
wide receivers over their past three contests. Cooks is still
easily the WR1 in this offense and while his ceiling isn’t
great, he provides a decent enough floor to be considered in fantasy
lineups this week.
While the Texans offense should improve with Brandin Cooks’ return
to the lineup, the truth is that the rest of the passing game
has been quite bad throughout most of the season, starting with
quarterback Davis Mills. Mills ranks 30th in the league in fantasy
points per game among QBs who’ve played in three or more games,
narrowly edging out the likes of Baker Mayfield, Zach Wilson,
and Bailey Zappe. Mills’ lack of success through the air has not
allowed his pass catchers to be consistent producers this season
and while Chris Moore stepped up in Cooks’ absence this past week,
both he and Mills should be on fantasy benches in what could end
up being a low-scoring contest against the Giants.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Giants quarterback Daniel Jones is coming off of his worst fantasy
performance of the season, one in which he threw for just 176
yards and ran for just 20 yards while failing to score a touchdown.
Jones’ low passing numbers have been common this season as he’s
been one of the least effective passers in the league, having
been held to fewer than 250 yards through the air in every contest
thus far. But it was surprising he ran the ball just six times
for 20 yards. This comes just three weeks after he had a season-low
six rushing yards against the Ravens. Of course, between those
games, he delivered a huge 107-yard rushing day with a touchdown,
so it’s not as if there’s something to be worried about from him
physically, but rather that we can’t necessarily fully rely on
him to win with just his legs. It’s also worth considering that
the Texans have done a good job against the mobile quarterbacks,
including holding Justin Fields to 47 yards on the ground, Malik
Willis to 12, and Jalen Hurts to 23 this past week. He’s not a
completely terrible option, but many fantasy managers probably
have better options they can roll with at least this week.
The Giants have now had two weeks to build an offensive system
that allows other pass catchers to take a bigger role after moving
on from Kadarius Toney. There’s reason to have hope that other
pass catchers will become more featured weapons in what has thus
far been a low-powered passing attack, but the Texans have been
good against opposing wide receivers and this doesn’t look like
a great opportunity for that to happen. Wide receiver Kenny Golladay
is also expected to be back, so this could be another ugly committee-like
approach at wide receiver for now. It’s probably best to avoid
this situation if at all possible.
Kirk has been up and down this season but seems to be on the
upswing of late with 26 targets in his last three games. The Jags
aren’t stretching the field with their offense as evidenced by
Kirk’s 9.5 yards per catch against the Raiders, but he does have
a few things working in his favor this week. The Jags are 9.5-point
underdog indicating a likely negative game script, meaning we
should see 40-plus attempts from Trevor Lawrence. In a stereotypical
bend but don’t break style, the Chiefs D is comfortable giving
up yards and have allowed the 8th most fantasy points to receivers.
This is the only game on the slate above a 50-point total. All
of this makes Kirk feels like a safe WR2 this week.
Lawrence posted a season-high 53 rushing yards last week and
I could see a similar high rushing total as some scrambling might
be necessary in order to keep pace with the Chiefs offense. We’ve
only seen four multi-TD games from Lawrence this year (none in
the last three weeks) but the Chiefs have given up at least two
passing TDs to every quarterback they’ve faced, not named
Malik Willis, and lead the league in passing TDs allowed with
17.
Evan Engram picked up a back injury last week and has been limited
in practice so pay attention to his injury status this weekend.
If he’s able to go, he feels like a solid TE2 play based
on game environment alone.
Fade: N/A
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Not much has changed with the Chiefs receiving distribution with
the exception of Kadarius Toney added to the mix, further diluting
the target share of everyone not named JuJu or Kelce. The Chiefs
got off an absurd 100 offensive snaps last week as they dinked
and dunked their way to an overtime win against Tennessee. Once
again, JuJu led the WR room with an 83% snap share and continues
to be the only trustworthy fantasy option of the group. He leads
the team in targets (60) and the Jags don’t put up much resistance
to fantasy receivers.
If you’re looking for a deeper option in the Chiefs passing game,
Hardman is probably your best bet assuming he’s able to suit up
after missing practice on Thursday. He doesn’t carry the snap
share of JuJu or Marquez Valdes-Scantling but has outscored MVS
93.8 to 60.8 in PPR leagues through nine weeks. He also has three
TDs in his last three games while MVS is still waiting for his
first trip to the endzone. We expect Toney to get more involved
as the season goes on but whether he cuts into MVS’s snap share
or Hardman’s remains to be seen.
Fade: KC Running Backs
The Chiefs abandoned the run game quickly last week when it became
apparent they couldn’t run the ball against the Tennessee. That
rendered the three-man committee of Isiah
Pacheco, Clyde
Edwards-Helaire and Jerick
McKinnon useless once again. Pacheco did get the start and
is probably worth holding on your roster, but I’d shy away from
using him this week, even in a better matchup, until KC proves
they can sustain some success on the ground. They rank 30th in
fantasy points scored at the running back position over the last
five weeks.
A mid-season move to a new team is rarely a good thing for a
tight end, but T.J. Hockenson might be one of the few who can
buck that trend. Hockenson surprised just about everyone when
he was targeted nine times in his debut for the Vikings this past
week, hauling in all nine passes for 70 yards. He finished second
on the team in targets, which may end up being the case in the
majority of games going forward as Adam Thielen continues to settle
into a more complementary role. Hockenson has had some down weeks
this season, but he’s a high-quality player at a difficult position
to find talent within, so make sure he’s in your lineup this week
and most weeks going forward.
The Vikings’ move to acquire Hockenson likely will not
affect Justin Jefferson much, but we could see it affect Adam
Thielen as the two players operate in the same part of the field
fairly often. Thielen only caught three of the seven targets he
saw this past week in Hockenson’s debut and while it wasn’t
a total disaster from a fantasy standpoint, he’s now failed
to score a touchdown in six of his eight games this season. Thielen
has been fairly touchdown-dependent to generate fantasy value
over the past few seasons so this drought has made him difficult
to rely on, even though he’s been a decent enough WR3/Flex
if you’re looking at full-season rankings. A lower total
volume and potentially fewer red zone opportunities could spell
a disappointing finish to the 2022 season for Thielen, but there
are a lot of byes this week and he’s probably good enough
to be in most lineups at least for now.
Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins has been a borderline QB1 for
fantasy this season and while he’s mostly been decent enough,
he has a tough matchup this week on the road against the Bills.
Buffalo has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to
opposing quarterbacks this season and that’s despite having played
against the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Tua Tagovailoa.
Cousins isn’t likely to completely kill you from a fantasy standpoint,
but his upside isn’t great and fantasy managers will probably
have to hope for a Buffalo blowout that forces the Vikings to
have to pass way more than they normally would if he’s going to
reach that upside.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Normally Josh Allen is a no-brainer, but reports of an elbow
injury in his throwing arm are certainly concerning for fantasy
managers. Of course, if he’s on the field, Allen almost certainly
needs to be in all fantasy lineups as his upside is just too great
to take a chance on other quarterbacks, but we do need to keep
an eye on reports about his health. There’s a non-zero chance
that Allen ends up missing this game and the team could end up
with Case Keenum behind center. Even if he does play, of course,
there’s also a chance that the team could end up benching him
midway through the contests if they’re not liking what they’re
seeing or hearing from their star quarterback about his UCL injury.
This is not the normal no-risk option that we usually have with
Allen.
Devin Singletary continues to disappoint despite getting a good
amount of work in one of the league’s best offenses. He’s
failed to reach even 10 fantasy points in three of his past four
contests despite averaging nearly 14 touches per game over that
stretch. He has scored just one touchdown on the year and has
just one game with more than four receptions. Normally this type
of production would indicate a “fade” in this article,
but there’s a good chance that the Bills end up relying
more heavily on their running game than they normally do, given
Josh Allen’s uncertain elbow injury. If they do, a 20-touch
game is not out of the question for Singletary who has been dominating
the team’s backfield touches. There’s a huge range
of potential outcomes here, so that’s why we’re going
to be on the fence about Singletary here against the Vikings.
While Stefon Diggs is a must-play no matter who’s throwing
him the ball, the complementary pieces in the Buffalo passing
game need to be on fantasy benches until we figure out what’s
going on with Josh Allen’s elbow. If he’s totally
fine and we end up missing one week of production, fine. But if
we lean on them as we normally would and the Bills end up passing
the ball far less than they normally do, then there’s a
real good chance that players like Davis, McKenzie, and Knox don’t
even see five targets this week.
Landry (ankle) hasn’t played since Week 4 due to an ankle injury,
and it’s far from clear he’ll be able to return this Sunday. If
he does, however, the veteran should slide right back into a prominent
role as the depth behind Olave inspires little confidence. Landry
is very familiar with the Steelers from his time in Cleveland,
and even though all his reps came when Jameis Winston was still
under center, he’d be useable as a flex if he can answer the bell
in Week 10.
In six starts, Dalton has produced meaningful numbers exactly
once -- that came on a Thursday night against Arizona where he
threw for 361 yards and 4 TDs in a game with lots of garbage-time
production. The Saints don’t want Dalton to air it out.
They want him to be smart with the football, which is something
Winston has struggled with over the duration of his career. This
Sunday, the Red Rifle should be put on the shelf.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
This will be Pittsburgh’s first game since the Chase Claypool
trade, which is why Johnson has been bumped to no-brainer status,
albeit marginally. The move should lead to more looks for both
Johnson and Pickens, who had topped 60 yards receiving in three
of his previous four games before being shutout in Week 8. While
there are certainly safer options out there, Pickens could fill
a middling WR3 slot against the Saints.
Watching the Saints defense spend nearly 38 minutes on the field
while struggling to stop a short-handed Ravens ground game certainly
gives hope to Harris, who has gone from top-10 preseason fantasy
back to afterthought with a grand total of zero games with over
75 yards rushing this season. The presence of Jaylen Warren is
also cause for concern, making Harris a hit-or-miss play this
Sunday. If you can deploy him as your No. 3 back or flex, Harris
has some potential.
This is a lukewarm recommendation as the dysfunction and upheaval
with this team reached its maximum this week with the firing of
head coach Frank Reich following the firing of OC Marcus Brady
and benching of QB Matt Ryan. A new head coach (Jeff Saturday)
and new OC (Parks Frazier) creates a lot of uncertainty for fantasy
owners. Taylor has missed last week’s game with an ankle injury
but has been practicing this week including a full practice on
Thursday and should be ready to go. The team cut Phillip Lindsay
on Thursday and Deon Jackson is dealing with a knee injury, meaning
Taylor should get the majority of snaps in a plus matchup. Still,
temper expectations given the implied team total for the Colts
is 18.
Matt Ryan (shoulder) was spotted at practice Thursday but there’s
been no indication that he’s going to be starting this week. With
Sam Ehlinger at the helm, Pittman has 10 catches for 75 scoreless
yards in two games. With a snap share consistently in the 90%
range, he’s the only receiving option on the Colts under fantasy
consideration this week. Despite the neutral matchup, Las Vegas
hasn’t allowed a 100-yard receiver yet this season. The Raiders
did release S Johnathan Abram this week, leaving Duron Harmon
and Trevon Moehrig to start at safety.
Despite the plus matchup, the turmoil and uncertainty of the
new coaching staff is too much to feel comfortable recommending
Ehlinger as a fantasy play. It’s not like he’s been
lighting the word on fire either. In his two starts, he’s
throws for zero touchdowns and 1 INT, averaging 152 yards per
game. His rushing ability is noteworthy but not enough to be anything
more than a low-end QB2.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
This feels like a bounce-back spot for Jacobs as a home favorite
against a team in turmoil. He currently sits as the RB7 in fantasy
points per game although the last couple weeks have been ho-hum
for the Raiders running back, averaging 55 rushing yards with
zero trips to the endzone. Still, he’s bound to be fed in
this game assuming the game script goes according to plan. The
Colts have allowed two 100-yard rushing games (both to Derrick
Henry) and are giving up the 6th most receiving yards to running
backs.
The Raiders put to of their receiving weapons on IR this week,
losing tight end Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow for the next
four games. Mack Hollins has already seen a consistently high
snap share (85% last week) and should be out there almost every
snap this week against the Colts. Whether or not they’ll be enough
opportunities to go around after Davante Adams, Jacobs and tight
end Foster Moreau is another story. Hollins has seen 8-plus targets
in three games this season, making him a sneaky Flex play in Week
10.
Moreau has been virtually an every-down player while Waller has
been out with his hamstring injury. Volume and efficiency will
be the concern here, as he’s probably good for five targets
and you’re hoping he finds his way into the endzone.
Since joining the season three weeks ago, DeAndre Hopkins ranks
4th in fantasy points per game among WRs. Despite seen arguing
on the sidelines with his quarterback last week, Hopkins still
managed to find the endzone and had another TD called back due
to a false start penalty. He’s still an alpha and the last game
between these two teams (Wk3) saw Marquise Brown go off for 14-140-0
on 17 targets. The Rams D is still a unit to be reckoned with,
buy not one to shy away from in fantasy football.
Rondale Moore has 18 targets over his last two games, resulting
in 15 catches, 161 yards and 1 TD. With Robbie Anderson looking
lost and quite frankly, playing bad since joining the team, the
looks should continue to come Moore’s way. He plays on 90% of
the snaps and is more of a PPR option giving his low aDOT but
can be used in standard leagues in a pinch.
Ertz is second among tight ends with 68 targets and tied for
3rd with four touchdowns. He posted a 6-45-0 line against this
defense back in Week 3 on 10 targets. Only George Kittle and Cade
Otton have scored TDs against the Rams with Otton’s 5-68-1 line
being the high-water mark for the season. Ertz is only “on the
fence” due to the Rams being stingy against the position, but
most fantasy owners should be rolling with him in their starting
lineup.
Conner’s first game back from his rib injury saw him play
71% of the snaps but only got 12 touches in the loss to Seattle.
He’s scored once this entire season and doesn’t have
more than 55 rushing yards in any game. It should be noted he’s
averaged over six yards per carry his last two games but with
only 16 rushing attempts in those contests, that kind of volume
isn’t worth more than a Flex option. In a less than ideal
matchup, I’d try and look elsewhere for my Flex.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Outside of Cooper Kupp, it’s hard to trust anyone in this Rams
offense right now and that goes for Higbee who started out the
season as a volume play during the first five weeks. In his last
three games however, he has just 3 catches for 22 yards despite
playing a healthy 76% of the snaps during that span. Good thing
for Higbee is he gets the slumpbuster for tight ends… the Cardinals
defense. They’ve given up 7 touchdowns to the position and only
Seattle has given up more receiving yards. Higbee posted a 4-61-0
on four targets against Arizona back in Week 3.
Update: Matthew
Stafford is listed as Questionable for Week 10.
Let’s face it, Stafford hasn’t been great this season. In fact,
he’s been less than great ranking 29th in fantasy points per game
through nine weeks. The offensive line has been horrible giving
the Rams’ QB no time to look for his secondary targets on most
plays. He’s only thrown multiple touchdowns in one game this season
(Wk2 ATL) and threw for 249 scoreless yards against the Cardinals
back in Week 3. Arizona is a positive matchup for quarterbacks
but Stafford will have to clear the concussion protocol if he’s
to take advantage. If not, we could be looking at John Wolford
at quarterback for the Rams in Week 10.
The offensive line woes continue for the Rams which not only
affects the passing game, it also does damage to the running game
were the offense has failed to gain any traction. Akers is back
after his issues and playing on 19% of the snaps last week against
the Bucs. Darrell Henderson is getting the most playing time and
usage but the lack of efficiency and volume makes any running
back in this offense a hard pass until the offensive ship gets
turned around.
It’s unclear if RB Ezekiel Elliott (knee) will return in Week
10 after missing the team’s last game before the bye with a knee
injury. Even if he does, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Pollard
get a larger share of the action after he turned 15 touches into
147 yards and 3 TDs in Week 8. Pollard has the kind of big-play
speed that could really give Green Bay fits, as the Packers currently
sit 26th in the NFL against the run (138.6 yards per game). Regardless
of Elliott’s status, Pollard should be viewed as an RB2. His upside
could reach RB1 levels if he’s the primary, though.
Prescott hasn’t done a ton since returning from a thumb
injury, and there’s no reason to think he’ll be featured
in Lambeau Field against the No. 2 pass defense -- the Packers
are allowing just 170.6 yards per game. Given what was noted above
about their run defense, the expectation should be a ground-heavy
attack from the Cowboys. Prescott has some running ability, however,
which is why he rates as a possible low-end QB1 in this matchup
rather than someone that should be on your bench.
Fade: N/A
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
While Lazard has had some issues this season, both with staying
healthy and drops, the Packers’ nominal No. 1 receiver has also
caught touchdown passes in five of the seven games he’s played.
His yardage has ticked up recently as well as he’s topped 50 yards
in four of his last five games. With Romeo Doubs (ankle) joining
Randall Cobb (ankle), and possibly Christian Watson (head), in
street clothes this Sunday, Lazard should be the clear top option
for Rodgers. Even in Green Bay’s weakened state offensively, that
should be enough for Lazard to deliver high-end WR3 value.
Let’s state the obvious: if Jones (ankle) can’t go
because of his ankle injury, Dillon’s value would go up
significantly and he’d become a must-start. His designation
here assumes that Jones will play, even if it’s in a reduced
role, and that Dillon would serve as a complementary piece. After
some strong work early on, Dillon has disappointed during the
team’s five-game losing streak: in that time, he has averaged
just 41.6 total yards and hasn’t scored since Week 1. The
Bears found success against Dallas in Week 8 with the combo of
David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert, and it makes sense for Green
Bay to try to attack the Cowboys that way, too. View Dillon as
a midrange RB3.
What even was that last Sunday? Rodgers looked nothing like the
back-to-back MVP in Detroit, missing open reads, underthrowing
receivers, and tossing an unprecedented three INTs inside the
red zone. It was as bad as it gets against a terrible Lions defense.
The Cowboys present another level of challenge with one of the
NFL’s most ferocious pass rushes and opportunistic secondary.
About the only angle one could adopt to advocate playing Rodgers
this week is the idea that he’ll elevate his game with former
coach Mike McCarthy returning. That’s a long shot. The savvy
move is to bench Rodgers this Sunday.
Palmer isn’t going to wow you on the screen. He doesn’t
have great speed, but he’s the only thing this offense has
on the outside at the moment. He’s seen double-digit targets
in each of the last two games including an 8-106-0 line on 10
targets last week against the Falcons. If there’s a weak
spot on the 49ers, it’s in their secondary giving up four
100-yard games on the season (Lockett, Kupp, JuJu, MVS).
It’s hard to get excited about Herbert these days considering
he’s missing his top two wideouts and the team is lacking
any big-play ability outside of Ekeler. OC Joe Lombardi basically
admitted as much this week, saying “we're not an especially
fast team right now, and so speed obviously helps. But there's
scheme things we can do to improve on that." Herbert hasn’t
been running the ball as much as last season, likely due to the
rib injury he suffered earlier this season. Despite the negatives,
he’s still hovering around QB10 thanks to consistently posting
decent yardage totals (5th in passing yds). With Allen and Williams
out, tight end Gerald Everett should continue to be an offensive
focal point. Everett had a bad drop last week but has seen at
least 7 targets in his last three games. There’s nothing
really to chew on with this matchup which is why we’re likely
looking at low-end QB1, high-end QB2 from Herbert and a fantasy
viable game from Everett.
Fade: N/A
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Kittle has been on a tear since Week 6, posting at least 80 yards
or a touchdown in his last three games, averaging 8 targets during
that span. His dominant 93% snap share means he’s consistently
on the field but his 16% target share trails the Tier 1 tight
ends Kelce (25%) and Andrews (26%). The Chargers have allowed
just 1 touchdown to tight ends this season (Dulchich) but did
give up 6-88-0 to David Njoku back in Week 5.
The bulk of the 49ers’ passing game is seemingly in a good
spot against a banged-up Chargers defense that ranks middle of
the pack in fantasy points allowed. Deebo’s rushing attempts
have taken a dive this season and aren’t likely to turn
around with Christian McAffrey in town. As a result, Deebo’s
ceiling isn’t what it used to be especially with Aiyuk playing
well and demanding targets of his own. The 49ers No.2 receiver
has seen 28 targets in his last three games, topping 80 yards
each game during that span. With all of these weapons, Jimmy G
is in a nice spot but could have a ceiling around 250 and 2 with
Christian McCaffrey likely to dominate the second worse rushing
defense in the league. This is a decent spot for the 49ers’
offense, but I’d temper expectations for any individual
player not named McCaffrey.
The Commanders are not an offense that fantasy managers should
be keying in on for fantasy production, but if there’s one positive
that we’ve seen in recent weeks, it’s the re-emergence of wide
receiver Terry McLaurin. McLaurin hasn’t been spectacular, but
he’s hit a bit of a stride, having delivered three straight double-digit
PPR days while also being targeted 25 times over that stretch.
We’re probably not ever going to see him fully unlocked until
the Commanders actually put a high-quality quarterback on the
field, but for now, we should be at least confident in putting
him in our lineups as long as Taylor Heinicke continues to feed
him the ball. For further context, McLaurin had his first 100-yard
game of the season earlier this year when he faced the Philadelphia
secondary, so this matchup shouldn’t be too scary for fantasy
managers even though the Eagles look like they might be the best
team in football.
The difficult-to-predict season for Antonio Gibson continues
to give fantasy managers headaches, as he’s now fully entrenched
in a split carry backfield with rookie Brian Robinson. The big
difference seems to be that Gibson is being utilized substantially
more often in the passing game, which could continue given that
J.D. McKissic remains sidelined throughout practice this week
and seems to be trending toward not playing again. Gibson looks
like the more explosive, better overall back between him and Robinson,
but he’s not being given enough touches to make him a truly risk-free
play.
Rookie Brian Robinson has been a great story to follow so far,
but the reality is that he’s in a pretty bad fantasy situation
right now. He’s been minimally effective with his touches
while splitting carries with Antonio Gibson and he’s now
facing a Philadelphia team that might get ahead early on the scoreboard.
Robinson has seen only four targets in five games and Washington's
offense just isn’t good enough for them to rely on their
running game to come from behind.
Wide receiver Curtis Samuel is coming off of a nice performance
in Week 9 which saw him score a touchdown and contribute 81 total
yards, but fantasy managers should be aware that he’s now
seen five or fewer targets in three of his past four contests.
We couldn’t assume that he was going to continue to see
10 targets per week like he was earlier in the year, but his volume
has been cut in about half and he’s only getting a couple
of carries per week to sort of make up for it. You could do worse
than Samuel, who did catch seven passes against Philadelphia when
these teams played back in Week 3, but the Washington offense
looks a lot different now than it did then, so don’t be
surprised if he gives you a dud in this one.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
We got another big volume game for Miles Sanders this past week
as the Eagles rolled over the Texans on their way to their eighth
straight win during this undefeated stretch. Sanders has been
minimally involved in the passing game which has really been the
only thing that’s kept him from a truly big fantasy season
thus far, but he’s now carried the ball at least 15 times
in all but two games, making him one of the higher floor RB2s
in fantasy. It is worth noting that he had his worst fantasy performance
of the year when he played the Commanders back in Week 3, but
he still touched the ball 16 times in that game, which is enough
of an opportunity that we should be confident playing him in this
one.
The A.J. Brown show continues in Philadelphia and it’s
now becoming obvious that DeVonta Smith is not being specifically
featured by the Eagles. The second-year receiver has been held
to five or fewer targets in half of his games this season and
he’s only seen double-digit targets twice. His back-to-back
games of fewer than 25 receiving yards would normally be enough
for us to call him a “Fade” this week, but looking
back at his Week 3 performance against this very same Washington
defense does tell a different story. Smith put together a monster
in that contest with eight catches, 169-yards, and a touchdown
on a season-high 12 targets. Don’t expect that kind of target
volume again, but Washington only scored eight points against
Philadelphia in that game, so any sort of shootout could help
all of the pass catchers in this one.
