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Favorites & Fades


Week 10

By: Mike Krueger | Ken Ilchuk | Nick Caron | HC Green
Updated: 11/12/22

Thursday:

ATL @ CAR


Sunday Early:

SEA @ TB | CLE @ MIA | DEN @ TEN | DET @ CHI

HOU @ NYG | JAX @ KC | MIN @ BUF | NO @ PIT


Sunday Late:

IND @ LV | ARI @ LAR | DAL @ GB | LAC @ SF

Monday:

WAS @ PHI

Notes:
- Green highlight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
- Lines and totals updated Sunday morning

Falcons @ Panthers - (Ilchuk)
Line: ATL -2.5
Total: 40.5

CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21

No Brainers: TE Kyle Pitts

Favorite: RB Cordarrelle Patterson

After coming off a stint on the injured list, Patterson stepped back into the lineup and back into the RB1 role on this team in Week 9. Despite still platooning with Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley, he still led the team in carries and was the obvious top target in the red zone with two scores. Oddly enough, he was only targeted once in the passing game. Given that his natural position is WR, Iíd expect his role in that area will grow, and he will continue to take more and more carries as he returns to game shape. Heís a solid RB2 play this week.

On the Fence: RB Tyler Allgeier

Allgeier proved himself worthy of the RB1 spot on this team in the absence of Cordarrelle Patterson. However, with Pattersonís return in Week 9, the rookie was immediately relegated to backup duty. Still, he turned in his best performance of the season with 99 yards on 10 carries. He also has four catches over the last two games. He has proven he can carry a load with double digit carries in all but one game this season. It would seem the Falcons would be best served keeping him in that role and moving Patterson back to his natural position of WR, giving Marcus Mariota another much-needed target in the passing game. But HC Arthur Smith seems determined to work Patterson primarily out of the RB spot, and I fear that means Allgeierís role will continue to diminish in the coming weeks.

Fade: QB Marcus Mariota

Mariota had his best game of the season against Carolina two weeks ago, passing for a season-high 253 yards and three touchdowns. Thatís a little surprising because the Panthers have been solid against the pass and are allowing less than 20.0 fantasy points per game to QBís this season. That game was likely an anomaly, though Carolinaís defense has been torched in the passing game two weeks in a row. Plus, HC Arthur Smith has been unwavering in his commitment to the run. Mariota has had 25 pass attempts once in the last month and in this run-first attack, he has no fantasy ceiling.

ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7

No Brainers: N/A

Favorite: RB DíOnta Foreman

After falling behind early, the Panthers were forced out of the run game and it showed in Foremanís numbers. A week earlier, he had 118 yards on 26 carries against this same Falcons team, which is giving up 4.5 yards per carry on the season and has allowed 11 TDs on the ground. Foreman is in line for a bounce back game and is an RB2 play in my lineup.

On the Fence: WR D.J. Moore

The Falcons are allowing the 2nd-most fantasy points per game to WRís this season (29.1). Thatís a big number. The question is whether Moore can take advantage. He has had a good rapport with QB P.J. Walker since his emergence as the starter (until last weekís blowout loss to the Bengals when no one was any good), and Walker will get the nod as the starter this week, despite being benched last week. But these teams played a shootout two weeks ago and defensive coordinators generally donít allow that sort of thing to happen twice in a row. Mooreís the top receiver in this group, but Iím not sure he's in line for a repeat performance.

Fade: QB P.J. Walker

Walker had been solid as the starter for Carolina until last week’s mid-game benching. He gets the call again on Thursday, but will be on a short leash, especially with Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold (coming off the injured list) at the ready. There’s too much risk here for limited fantasy value, even against a struggling Falcons pass defense.

Prediction: Falcons 20, Panthers 14 ^ Top

Seahawks @ Buccaneers (Germany) - (Ilchuk)
Line: TB -3.0
Total: 45.0

TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9

No Brainers: WR DK Metcalf

Favorite: RB Kenneth Walker

Walker has exploded onto the fantasy scene in Seattle with two 100-yard rushing efforts and two multi-score games in the last three weeks. Heís also becoming a factor in the passing attack with four catches over the last two games. The Bucs defense is struggling and yielding over 4.5 yards per carry while getting slashed by everyone except the Rams, who just donít run the ball. In an overseas game, during an unconventional week of practice, HC Pete Carroll is going to keep it simple and run the rock. Walker is a locked in RB1.

On the Fence: QB Geno Smith

Many of us who lived through Geno Smith as a Jet are waiting for the, ďyeah, butÖĒ moment to come. To his credit, it hasnít yet. Heís playing the best football of his career, and over the last five weeks, has the 6th most fantasy points per game among all NFL starters. But as mentioned above, I think this is going to be a run-heavy attack this week, and while Todd Bowlesí defense has struggled, they can create pressure on the pocket, which has been a weakness in the past. Old habits die hard, and I donít know if I can trust Smith in my lineup.

Fade: RB DeeJay Dallas

Walker is clearly the lead back in this group now, but the most surprising numbers to come out of last weekís game were 21 and 2. Thatís how many snaps Travis Homer and Dallas had, respectively. Clearly, Dallas has no role unless Walker goes down with an injury.

SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2

No Brainers: WR Mike Evans

Favorite: TE Cade Otton

Otton had the third-most fantasy points among TEís last week and is top eight in that category over the last three weeks, with at least five targets per game over that span. Since taking over for the injured Cameron Brate, heís posted two 60+ yard efforts, and this past week he found the end zone. Heís worked his way into Tom Bradyís good graces, and despite Brate returning from injury this week, I think Otton holds this spot and puts up TE1 numbers. Seattle brings pressure and Brady will be looking for outlets to get the ball out of his hand.

On the Fence: QB Tom Brady

Brady has put three decent games together, and this week faces a Seattle defense that plays a lot of bend-donít-break zone behind a four-man rush. But that rush gets to the QB, especially up the middle from the DT spots, and thatís the kind of pass rush that hurts Brady the most. He hates pressure at his feet that moves him off his spot, and the way heís played this season, I think he can be rattled in this one.

Fade: RB Leonard Fournette

Fournette hasnít had double-digit carries in a game in four weeks! And while his five catches on seven targets were a positive last week, his paltry 9-19 rushing line wasnít even the worst day of his season. With Rachaad White stealing more and more touches by the week, Fournette is relegated to RB2 status.

Prediction: Seahawks 23, Buccaneers 20 ^ Top

Browns @ Dolphins - (Caron)
Line: MIA -3.5
Total: 49.5

MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3

No Brainers: RB Nick Chubb, WR Amari Cooper

Update: David Njoku is out for Week 10. Harrison Bryant will start at TE.

Favorite: TE David Njoku

Tight end David Njoku missed Week 8 and then had an opportunity to sit during the Brownsí Week 9 bye, with hopes heíll be returning here in Week 10 for the matchup with the Dolphins. Njoku has been quietly breaking out this season, having exceeded 50 receiving yards in each of his past five contests. Heíd be much higher on seasonal rankings right now if he had only been able to sneak into the end zone a bit more, as heís scored just once so far despite having over 400 yards receiving on the year. If he can get back on the field this week, as heís expected to, heíll face a Miami defense that has given up the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season, including a pair of touchdowns to Chicagoís Cole Kmet this past week.

On the Fence: WR Donovan Peoples-Jones

While Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, and David Njoku have been getting the majority of the love in this Browns offense from fantasy managers, one other player has been quietly ascending and thatís wide receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones. Peoples-Jones has now reached 50 or more receiving yards in six of his eight games, including each of his past five, and heís been able to contribute some Flex-worthy PPR numbers despite not finding the end zone yet this season. The Dolphins have given up six separate double-digit PPR fantasy days to opposing wide receivers over their past four contests, so another usable fantasy day for Peoples-Jones could be incoming.

Fade: RB Kareem Hunt

Browns running back Kareem Hunt was the focus of a lot of potential trade talk over the past few weeks, but he ended up staying in Cleveland. Now we have to come to the realization that he is a player whoís failed to reach 15 fantasy points in every game since Week 1 while falling below 10 points in now five of his past seven contests. Nick Chubb has been one of the most dominant players in all of fantasy football which has not allowed Hunt to get nearly as many opportunities as he usually has, including as a pass catcher where he hasnít exceeded five targets in a game this season. His usage just is not heavy enough to justify playing him against a Miami defense that has allowed just one opposing running back (Breece Hall) to reach even 80 rushing yards against them so far this season, and even that took a single 79-yard run to accomplish.

CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27

No Brainers: QB Tua Tagovailoa, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Jaylen Waddle

Favorite: RB Jeff Wilson

Most believed that the Dolphinsí acquisition of Jeff Wilson at the trade deadline was more of an insurance policy for the oft-injured Raheem Mostert, but appears as if those expectations might have been underselling the significance of the move. Wilson made his debut with the Dolphins this past week and immediately commanded a dozen touches while out-snapping Mostert on the day in what was an extremely competitive game with the Bears. Certainly, this was just a one-game sample size so we shouldnít completely overreact, but this is a great sign for Wilsonís potential going forward as he was trusted by his former offensive coordinator in San Francisco and current Miami head coach, Mike McDaniel. Wilsonís experience in the system will allow him to avoid the concerns that many coaches have when they add new players, and should lead to him getting plenty of playing time.

On the Fence: TE Mike Gesicki

Tight end Mike Gesickiís 2022 season has been a rollercoaster, as is the case with most tight ends. Gesickiís has been even more extreme than most, though, as heís essentially been completely useless for fantasy in any game where heís failed to score a touchdown. Heís scored four total times in three of his nine games, but heís been held to under six fantasy points in each of the other six contests. The opportunities are not there consistently as heís only playing around 50 percent of the teamís snaps, and heís failed to exceed four targets in all but two games. Tight end remains a flaming pile of garbage throughout the league and four NFL teams are on byes, so there will be a lot of managers who just donít have better options than Gesiciki, but heís not a very high upside option and he essentially has no floor whatsoever.

Fade: RB Raheem Mostert

We donít want to completely overreact to a one-week sample size, but fantasy managers who are rostering Raheem Mostert should be very concerned right now that their running back is losing a grip on his starting job. Wilson made his debut with the Dolphins in Week 9 and immediately out-snapped Mostert, while also out-touching him, albeit both by slim margins. Mostert has been held to fewer than 10 PPR fantasy points in three of his past four contests and while heís shown the ability to break off big runs in the past, his explosiveness was visibly lacking in comparison to Wilson this past week. This looks like a good week to keep him on your bench if you have other viable options until we get a better understanding of what this backfield might look like going forward.

Prediction: Dolphins 27, Browns 23 ^ Top

Broncos @ Titans - (Ilchuk)
Line: TEN -3.0
Total: 39.0

TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4

No Brainers: N/A

Favorite: TE Greg Dulcich

Dulcich is averaging four catches per game and over 15 yards per catch over the last three weeks. Heís on the field for over 80% of the Broncos offensive snaps, and heís clearly become a favored target of QB Russell Wilson. Heís entered TE1 territory and is a strong play against the Titans who are top five in the NFL is fantasy points allowed to the position.

On the Fence: WR Courtland Sutton

Sutton has all but disappeared from the Broncos offense with six catches for 50 yards combined over the last three games, and he hasnít scored a touchdown (his only touchdown of the season) since Week 4. He hit rock bottom in Week 8 with only one reception. Despite all that, as a desperate team, coming off their bye, there has got to be a plan to get Sutton the ball. Heís their most explosive weapon, and if the Broncos have any chance of turning their season around, theyíve got to figure out a way to get the ball in the hands of their playmakers.

Fade: RB Melvin Gordon

Itís been a struggle for Gordon all season. But even though heís been the RB1 in Denver since the Javonte Williams injury, Latavius Murray has been stealing touches and scoring opportunities from Gordon. Now Chase Edmonds has been added to the mix. Itís looks like Gordon could eventually be limited even more in the coming weeks.

DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15

No Brainers: N/A

Favorite: RB Derrick Henry

Henry hasnít rushed for less than 100 yards in a game since Week 3, and is the driving force behind the most run-dominant offense in the league, especially the last two weeks with Malik Willis at QB. Heís the only real full-fledged fantasy option on this roster.

On the Fence: QB Ryan Tannehill

Tannehill has missed the last two games with an ankle injury, but there are indications he could be back for this game as he practiced in full on Friday. If he is, it could significantly open up the Titans offense, especially with WR Treylon Burks reportedly close to a return as well. But we wonít have a better idea until Fridayís practice. Until then, heís worth keeping on the watch list this week against a Denver defense that no longer features Bradley Chubb Ė a game changer.

Fade: TE Austin Hooper

Hooper has actually seen an uptick in production with six catches for 95 yards over the last three games. But even with that, heís still splitting TE snaps with Geoff Swaim and Chigoziem Okonkwo. He clearly isnít ever going back to being the weapon he was earlier in his career in Atlanta.

Prediction: Titans 17, Broncos 13 ^ Top

Lions @ Bears - (Green)
Line: CHI -2.5
Total: 48.5

CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28

No Brainers: RB Jamaal Williams, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

Favorite: RB DíAndre Swift

Although he entered the season as a no-brainer, Swift has once again battled a spate of injuries. Ever since totaling 18 touches in Week 1, the third-year pro has posted 10 or fewer in each of his other four games, including last Sunday when he had five touches while playing just 10 snaps -- for comparison, Williams played 38 and Justin Jackson logged 13. The Bears boast one of the NFLís worst run defenses, though, allowing 147.2 yards per game on the ground, so thereís a chance that Swift could turn limited usage into low-end RB3 or flex production. Heís a risk/reward play.

On the Fence: N/A

Fade: QB Jared Goff

Surprisingly solid early on, Goff has tapered off quite a bit. Over his last four games, the former No. 1 overall pick has averaged 229 yards, 0.75 TDs, and 1 INT per game. Heís been especially bad on the road this season, throwing just one TD pass in three contests away from Ford Field. Chicago ranks a respectable 10th in pass defense on the year, and the loss of several weapons (such as D.J. Chark and T.J. Hockenson) make an even stronger case for keeping Goff on your bench.

DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5

No Brainers: RB David Montgomery

Favorite: QB Justin Fields

By this time next week, Fields may well be viewed as a no-brainer. The Ohio State alum has run for 408 yards over his last four games, during which the Bears have averaged 25 points, and he has posted 10 total TDs (seven passing, three rushing). Fields has cut down on the sacks and negative plays as well, and while his throwing numbers still donít move the needle, you canít bypass that kind of rushing. Also, donít let Detroit holding the Packers to nine points in Week 9 distract you from a simple truth: the Lions stink defensively. Fields is a strong QB1 here.

On the Fence: RB Khalil Herbert

Thereís no doubt Chicagoís running game is cooking right now, and in the Lions, they find the NFLís 31st-ranked run defense (148.8 yards per game). The issue is that Fields is the star attraction, making Montgomery and Herbert a bit more volatile. Over the last four games, Herbert has averaged 10.5 carries for 64.5 yards, so heís doing a lot without a ton of work. The snap counts show this as well with Herbert logging fewer than half of the snaps as Montgomery in three of those four games. While Herbert does offer flex value, just be aware his margin for error is smaller than his cohorts.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Bears 30, Lions 22 ^ Top

Texans @ Giants - (Caron)
Line: NYG -4.5
Total: 41.0

NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12

No Brainers: RB Dameon Pierce

Favorite: N/A

On the Fence: WR Brandin Cooks

Wide receiver Brandin Cooks sat out in Week 9 for ďpersonal reasons,Ē after apparently being upset about not being traded out of Houston at the deadline. Cooks is admittedly also dealing with a wrist injury, which has kept him limited in practice since returning to the team this week. He hasnít been nearly the high-level pass catcher this season that he has been in recent years, so thereís a case to be made that Cooks is barely startable to begin with, but now heís facing a Giants secondary that has given up six separate double-digit PPR days to opposing wide receivers over their past three contests. Cooks is still easily the WR1 in this offense and while his ceiling isnít great, he provides a decent enough floor to be considered in fantasy lineups this week.

Fade: QB Davis Mills, WR Chris Moore

While the Texans offense should improve with Brandin Cooksí return to the lineup, the truth is that the rest of the passing game has been quite bad throughout most of the season, starting with quarterback Davis Mills. Mills ranks 30th in the league in fantasy points per game among QBs whoíve played in three or more games, narrowly edging out the likes of Baker Mayfield, Zach Wilson, and Bailey Zappe. Millsí lack of success through the air has not allowed his pass catchers to be consistent producers this season and while Chris Moore stepped up in Cooksí absence this past week, both he and Mills should be on fantasy benches in what could end up being a low-scoring contest against the Giants.

HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16

No Brainers: RB Saquon Barkley

Favorite: N/A

On the Fence: QB Daniel Jones

Giants quarterback Daniel Jones is coming off of his worst fantasy performance of the season, one in which he threw for just 176 yards and ran for just 20 yards while failing to score a touchdown. Jonesí low passing numbers have been common this season as heís been one of the least effective passers in the league, having been held to fewer than 250 yards through the air in every contest thus far. But it was surprising he ran the ball just six times for 20 yards. This comes just three weeks after he had a season-low six rushing yards against the Ravens. Of course, between those games, he delivered a huge 107-yard rushing day with a touchdown, so itís not as if thereís something to be worried about from him physically, but rather that we canít necessarily fully rely on him to win with just his legs. Itís also worth considering that the Texans have done a good job against the mobile quarterbacks, including holding Justin Fields to 47 yards on the ground, Malik Willis to 12, and Jalen Hurts to 23 this past week. Heís not a completely terrible option, but many fantasy managers probably have better options they can roll with at least this week.

Fade: WR Darius Slayton, WR WaníDale Robinson

The Giants have now had two weeks to build an offensive system that allows other pass catchers to take a bigger role after moving on from Kadarius Toney. Thereís reason to have hope that other pass catchers will become more featured weapons in what has thus far been a low-powered passing attack, but the Texans have been good against opposing wide receivers and this doesnít look like a great opportunity for that to happen. Wide receiver Kenny Golladay is also expected to be back, so this could be another ugly committee-like approach at wide receiver for now. Itís probably best to avoid this situation if at all possible.

Prediction: Giants 20, Texans 17 ^ Top

Jaguars @ Chiefs - (Krueger)
Line: KC -9.5
Total: 51.5

KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8

No Brainers: RB Travis Etienne

Favorite: WR Christian Kirk

Kirk has been up and down this season but seems to be on the upswing of late with 26 targets in his last three games. The Jags arenít stretching the field with their offense as evidenced by Kirkís 9.5 yards per catch against the Raiders, but he does have a few things working in his favor this week. The Jags are 9.5-point underdog indicating a likely negative game script, meaning we should see 40-plus attempts from Trevor Lawrence. In a stereotypical bend but donít break style, the Chiefs D is comfortable giving up yards and have allowed the 8th most fantasy points to receivers. This is the only game on the slate above a 50-point total. All of this makes Kirk feels like a safe WR2 this week.

On the Fence: QB Trevor Lawrence, TE Evan Engram

Lawrence posted a season-high 53 rushing yards last week and I could see a similar high rushing total as some scrambling might be necessary in order to keep pace with the Chiefs offense. Weíve only seen four multi-TD games from Lawrence this year (none in the last three weeks) but the Chiefs have given up at least two passing TDs to every quarterback theyíve faced, not named Malik Willis, and lead the league in passing TDs allowed with 17.

Evan Engram picked up a back injury last week and has been limited in practice so pay attention to his injury status this weekend. If heís able to go, he feels like a solid TE2 play based on game environment alone.

Fade: N/A

JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25

No Brainers: QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce

Favorite: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster

Not much has changed with the Chiefs receiving distribution with the exception of Kadarius Toney added to the mix, further diluting the target share of everyone not named JuJu or Kelce. The Chiefs got off an absurd 100 offensive snaps last week as they dinked and dunked their way to an overtime win against Tennessee. Once again, JuJu led the WR room with an 83% snap share and continues to be the only trustworthy fantasy option of the group. He leads the team in targets (60) and the Jags donít put up much resistance to fantasy receivers.

Update: Mecole Hardman is out for Week 10.

On the Fence: WR Mecole Hardman (abdomen)

If youíre looking for a deeper option in the Chiefs passing game, Hardman is probably your best bet assuming heís able to suit up after missing practice on Thursday. He doesnít carry the snap share of JuJu or Marquez Valdes-Scantling but has outscored MVS 93.8 to 60.8 in PPR leagues through nine weeks. He also has three TDs in his last three games while MVS is still waiting for his first trip to the endzone. We expect Toney to get more involved as the season goes on but whether he cuts into MVSís snap share or Hardmanís remains to be seen.

Fade: KC Running Backs

The Chiefs abandoned the run game quickly last week when it became apparent they couldnít run the ball against the Tennessee. That rendered the three-man committee of Isiah Pacheco, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon useless once again. Pacheco did get the start and is probably worth holding on your roster, but Iíd shy away from using him this week, even in a better matchup, until KC proves they can sustain some success on the ground. They rank 30th in fantasy points scored at the running back position over the last five weeks.

Prediction: Chiefs 30, Jaguars 17 ^ Top

Vikings @ Bills - (Caron)
Line: BUF -3.0
Total: 42.5

BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23

No Brainers: RB Dalvin Cook, WR Justin Jefferson

Favorite: TE T.J. Hockenson

A mid-season move to a new team is rarely a good thing for a tight end, but T.J. Hockenson might be one of the few who can buck that trend. Hockenson surprised just about everyone when he was targeted nine times in his debut for the Vikings this past week, hauling in all nine passes for 70 yards. He finished second on the team in targets, which may end up being the case in the majority of games going forward as Adam Thielen continues to settle into a more complementary role. Hockenson has had some down weeks this season, but heís a high-quality player at a difficult position to find talent within, so make sure heís in your lineup this week and most weeks going forward.

On the Fence: WR Adam Thielen

The Vikingsí move to acquire Hockenson likely will not affect Justin Jefferson much, but we could see it affect Adam Thielen as the two players operate in the same part of the field fairly often. Thielen only caught three of the seven targets he saw this past week in Hockensonís debut and while it wasnít a total disaster from a fantasy standpoint, heís now failed to score a touchdown in six of his eight games this season. Thielen has been fairly touchdown-dependent to generate fantasy value over the past few seasons so this drought has made him difficult to rely on, even though heís been a decent enough WR3/Flex if youíre looking at full-season rankings. A lower total volume and potentially fewer red zone opportunities could spell a disappointing finish to the 2022 season for Thielen, but there are a lot of byes this week and heís probably good enough to be in most lineups at least for now.

Fade: QB Kirk Cousins

Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins has been a borderline QB1 for fantasy this season and while heís mostly been decent enough, he has a tough matchup this week on the road against the Bills. Buffalo has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season and thatís despite having played against the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Tua Tagovailoa. Cousins isnít likely to completely kill you from a fantasy standpoint, but his upside isnít great and fantasy managers will probably have to hope for a Buffalo blowout that forces the Vikings to have to pass way more than they normally would if heís going to reach that upside.

MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11

No Brainers: WR Stefon Diggs

Update: Josh Allen is listed as Questionable for Week 10.

Favorite: QB Josh Allen

Normally Josh Allen is a no-brainer, but reports of an elbow injury in his throwing arm are certainly concerning for fantasy managers. Of course, if heís on the field, Allen almost certainly needs to be in all fantasy lineups as his upside is just too great to take a chance on other quarterbacks, but we do need to keep an eye on reports about his health. Thereís a non-zero chance that Allen ends up missing this game and the team could end up with Case Keenum behind center. Even if he does play, of course, thereís also a chance that the team could end up benching him midway through the contests if theyíre not liking what theyíre seeing or hearing from their star quarterback about his UCL injury. This is not the normal no-risk option that we usually have with Allen.

On the Fence: RB Devin Singletary

Devin Singletary continues to disappoint despite getting a good amount of work in one of the leagueís best offenses. Heís failed to reach even 10 fantasy points in three of his past four contests despite averaging nearly 14 touches per game over that stretch. He has scored just one touchdown on the year and has just one game with more than four receptions. Normally this type of production would indicate a ďfadeĒ in this article, but thereís a good chance that the Bills end up relying more heavily on their running game than they normally do, given Josh Allenís uncertain elbow injury. If they do, a 20-touch game is not out of the question for Singletary who has been dominating the teamís backfield touches. Thereís a huge range of potential outcomes here, so thatís why weíre going to be on the fence about Singletary here against the Vikings.

Fade: WR Gabriel Davis, WR Isaiah McKenzie, TE Dawson Knox

While Stefon Diggs is a must-play no matter whoís throwing him the ball, the complementary pieces in the Buffalo passing game need to be on fantasy benches until we figure out whatís going on with Josh Allenís elbow. If heís totally fine and we end up missing one week of production, fine. But if we lean on them as we normally would and the Bills end up passing the ball far less than they normally do, then thereís a real good chance that players like Davis, McKenzie, and Knox donít even see five targets this week.

Prediction: Bills 24, Vikings 21 ^ Top

Saints @ Steelers - (Green)
Line: NO -1.5
Total: 40.0

PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24

No Brainers: RB Alvin Kamara, WR Chris Olave

Favorite: N/A

On the Fence: WR Jarvis Landry (ankle)

Landry (ankle) hasnít played since Week 4 due to an ankle injury, and itís far from clear heíll be able to return this Sunday. If he does, however, the veteran should slide right back into a prominent role as the depth behind Olave inspires little confidence. Landry is very familiar with the Steelers from his time in Cleveland, and even though all his reps came when Jameis Winston was still under center, heíd be useable as a flex if he can answer the bell in Week 10.

Fade: QB Andy Dalton

In six starts, Dalton has produced meaningful numbers exactly once -- that came on a Thursday night against Arizona where he threw for 361 yards and 4 TDs in a game with lots of garbage-time production. The Saints donít want Dalton to air it out. They want him to be smart with the football, which is something Winston has struggled with over the duration of his career. This Sunday, the Red Rifle should be put on the shelf.

NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32

No Brainers: WR Diontae Johnson, TE Pat Freiermuth

Favorite: WR George Pickens

This will be Pittsburghís first game since the Chase Claypool trade, which is why Johnson has been bumped to no-brainer status, albeit marginally. The move should lead to more looks for both Johnson and Pickens, who had topped 60 yards receiving in three of his previous four games before being shutout in Week 8. While there are certainly safer options out there, Pickens could fill a middling WR3 slot against the Saints.

On the Fence: RB Najee Harris

Watching the Saints defense spend nearly 38 minutes on the field while struggling to stop a short-handed Ravens ground game certainly gives hope to Harris, who has gone from top-10 preseason fantasy back to afterthought with a grand total of zero games with over 75 yards rushing this season. The presence of Jaylen Warren is also cause for concern, making Harris a hit-or-miss play this Sunday. If you can deploy him as your No. 3 back or flex, Harris has some potential.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Steelers 20, Saints 19 ^ Top

Colts @ Raiders - (Krueger)
Line: LV -4.5
Total: 41.0

LV FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
LV FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
LV FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
LV FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6

No Brainers: N/A

Favorite: Jonathan Taylor (ankle)

This is a lukewarm recommendation as the dysfunction and upheaval with this team reached its maximum this week with the firing of head coach Frank Reich following the firing of OC Marcus Brady and benching of QB Matt Ryan. A new head coach (Jeff Saturday) and new OC (Parks Frazier) creates a lot of uncertainty for fantasy owners. Taylor has missed last weekís game with an ankle injury but has been practicing this week including a full practice on Thursday and should be ready to go. The team cut Phillip Lindsay on Thursday and Deon Jackson is dealing with a knee injury, meaning Taylor should get the majority of snaps in a plus matchup. Still, temper expectations given the implied team total for the Colts is 18.

On the Fence: WR Michael Pittman Jr.

Matt Ryan (shoulder) was spotted at practice Thursday but thereís been no indication that heís going to be starting this week. With Sam Ehlinger at the helm, Pittman has 10 catches for 75 scoreless yards in two games. With a snap share consistently in the 90% range, heís the only receiving option on the Colts under fantasy consideration this week. Despite the neutral matchup, Las Vegas hasnít allowed a 100-yard receiver yet this season. The Raiders did release S Johnathan Abram this week, leaving Duron Harmon and Trevon Moehrig to start at safety.

Fade: QB Sam Ehlinger

Despite the plus matchup, the turmoil and uncertainty of the new coaching staff is too much to feel comfortable recommending Ehlinger as a fantasy play. Itís not like heís been lighting the word on fire either. In his two starts, heís throws for zero touchdowns and 1 INT, averaging 152 yards per game. His rushing ability is noteworthy but not enough to be anything more than a low-end QB2.

IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13

No Brainers: WR Davante Adams

Favorite: RB Josh Jacobs

This feels like a bounce-back spot for Jacobs as a home favorite against a team in turmoil. He currently sits as the RB7 in fantasy points per game although the last couple weeks have been ho-hum for the Raiders running back, averaging 55 rushing yards with zero trips to the endzone. Still, heís bound to be fed in this game assuming the game script goes according to plan. The Colts have allowed two 100-yard rushing games (both to Derrick Henry) and are giving up the 6th most receiving yards to running backs.

On the Fence: WR Mack Hollins, TE Foster Moreau

The Raiders put to of their receiving weapons on IR this week, losing tight end Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow for the next four games. Mack Hollins has already seen a consistently high snap share (85% last week) and should be out there almost every snap this week against the Colts. Whether or not theyíll be enough opportunities to go around after Davante Adams, Jacobs and tight end Foster Moreau is another story. Hollins has seen 8-plus targets in three games this season, making him a sneaky Flex play in Week 10.

Moreau has been virtually an every-down player while Waller has been out with his hamstring injury. Volume and efficiency will be the concern here, as heís probably good for five targets and youíre hoping he finds his way into the endzone.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Raiders 27, Colts 17 ^ Top

Cardinals @ Rams - (Krueger)
Line: LAR -3.0
Total: 40.0

LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29

Update: Kyler Murray is listed as Questionable for Week 10.

No Brainers: QB Kyler Murray

Favorite: WRs DeAndre Hopkins, Rondale Moore (hand)

Since joining the season three weeks ago, DeAndre Hopkins ranks 4th in fantasy points per game among WRs. Despite seen arguing on the sidelines with his quarterback last week, Hopkins still managed to find the endzone and had another TD called back due to a false start penalty. Heís still an alpha and the last game between these two teams (Wk3) saw Marquise Brown go off for 14-140-0 on 17 targets. The Rams D is still a unit to be reckoned with, buy not one to shy away from in fantasy football.

Rondale Moore has 18 targets over his last two games, resulting in 15 catches, 161 yards and 1 TD. With Robbie Anderson looking lost and quite frankly, playing bad since joining the team, the looks should continue to come Mooreís way. He plays on 90% of the snaps and is more of a PPR option giving his low aDOT but can be used in standard leagues in a pinch.

On the Fence: TE Zach Ertz

Ertz is second among tight ends with 68 targets and tied for 3rd with four touchdowns. He posted a 6-45-0 line against this defense back in Week 3 on 10 targets. Only George Kittle and Cade Otton have scored TDs against the Rams with Ottonís 5-68-1 line being the high-water mark for the season. Ertz is only ďon the fenceĒ due to the Rams being stingy against the position, but most fantasy owners should be rolling with him in their starting lineup.

Fade: RB James Conner

Connerís first game back from his rib injury saw him play 71% of the snaps but only got 12 touches in the loss to Seattle. Heís scored once this entire season and doesnít have more than 55 rushing yards in any game. It should be noted heís averaged over six yards per carry his last two games but with only 16 rushing attempts in those contests, that kind of volume isnít worth more than a Flex option. In a less than ideal matchup, Iíd try and look elsewhere for my Flex.

ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1

No Brainers: WR Cooper Kupp

Favorite: TE Tyler Higbee

Outside of Cooper Kupp, itís hard to trust anyone in this Rams offense right now and that goes for Higbee who started out the season as a volume play during the first five weeks. In his last three games however, he has just 3 catches for 22 yards despite playing a healthy 76% of the snaps during that span. Good thing for Higbee is he gets the slumpbuster for tight endsÖ the Cardinals defense. Theyíve given up 7 touchdowns to the position and only Seattle has given up more receiving yards. Higbee posted a 4-61-0 on four targets against Arizona back in Week 3.

Update: Matthew Stafford is listed as Questionable for Week 10.

On the Fence: QB Matthew Stafford (concussion)

Letís face it, Stafford hasnít been great this season. In fact, heís been less than great ranking 29th in fantasy points per game through nine weeks. The offensive line has been horrible giving the Ramsí QB no time to look for his secondary targets on most plays. Heís only thrown multiple touchdowns in one game this season (Wk2 ATL) and threw for 249 scoreless yards against the Cardinals back in Week 3. Arizona is a positive matchup for quarterbacks but Stafford will have to clear the concussion protocol if heís to take advantage. If not, we could be looking at John Wolford at quarterback for the Rams in Week 10.

Fade: RBs Cam Akers, Darrell Henderson

The offensive line woes continue for the Rams which not only affects the passing game, it also does damage to the running game were the offense has failed to gain any traction. Akers is back after his issues and playing on 19% of the snaps last week against the Bucs. Darrell Henderson is getting the most playing time and usage but the lack of efficiency and volume makes any running back in this offense a hard pass until the offensive ship gets turned around.

Prediction: Cardinals 23, Rams 20 ^ Top

Cowboys @ Packers - (Green)
Line: DAL -4.5
Total: 44.0

GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30

No Brainers: WR CeeDee Lamb

Favorite: RB Tony Pollard

Itís unclear if RB Ezekiel Elliott (knee) will return in Week 10 after missing the teamís last game before the bye with a knee injury. Even if he does, it wouldnít be surprising to see Pollard get a larger share of the action after he turned 15 touches into 147 yards and 3 TDs in Week 8. Pollard has the kind of big-play speed that could really give Green Bay fits, as the Packers currently sit 26th in the NFL against the run (138.6 yards per game). Regardless of Elliottís status, Pollard should be viewed as an RB2. His upside could reach RB1 levels if heís the primary, though.

On the Fence: QB Dak Prescott

Prescott hasnít done a ton since returning from a thumb injury, and thereís no reason to think heíll be featured in Lambeau Field against the No. 2 pass defense -- the Packers are allowing just 170.6 yards per game. Given what was noted above about their run defense, the expectation should be a ground-heavy attack from the Cowboys. Prescott has some running ability, however, which is why he rates as a possible low-end QB1 in this matchup rather than someone that should be on your bench.

Fade: N/A

DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22

No Brainers: RB Aaron Jones (knee)

Favorite: WR Allen Lazard

While Lazard has had some issues this season, both with staying healthy and drops, the Packersí nominal No. 1 receiver has also caught touchdown passes in five of the seven games heís played. His yardage has ticked up recently as well as heís topped 50 yards in four of his last five games. With Romeo Doubs (ankle) joining Randall Cobb (ankle), and possibly Christian Watson (head), in street clothes this Sunday, Lazard should be the clear top option for Rodgers. Even in Green Bayís weakened state offensively, that should be enough for Lazard to deliver high-end WR3 value.

On the Fence: RB AJ Dillon

Letís state the obvious: if Jones (ankle) canít go because of his ankle injury, Dillonís value would go up significantly and heíd become a must-start. His designation here assumes that Jones will play, even if itís in a reduced role, and that Dillon would serve as a complementary piece. After some strong work early on, Dillon has disappointed during the teamís five-game losing streak: in that time, he has averaged just 41.6 total yards and hasnít scored since Week 1. The Bears found success against Dallas in Week 8 with the combo of David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert, and it makes sense for Green Bay to try to attack the Cowboys that way, too. View Dillon as a midrange RB3.

Fade: QB Aaron Rodgers

What even was that last Sunday? Rodgers looked nothing like the back-to-back MVP in Detroit, missing open reads, underthrowing receivers, and tossing an unprecedented three INTs inside the red zone. It was as bad as it gets against a terrible Lions defense. The Cowboys present another level of challenge with one of the NFLís most ferocious pass rushes and opportunistic secondary. About the only angle one could adopt to advocate playing Rodgers this week is the idea that heíll elevate his game with former coach Mike McCarthy returning. Thatís a long shot. The savvy move is to bench Rodgers this Sunday.

Prediction: Cowboys 27, Packers 16 ^ Top

Chargers @ 49ers - (Krueger)
Line: SF -7.0
Total: 45.0

SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26

No Brainers: RB Austin Ekeler

Favorite: WR Josh Palmer

Palmer isnít going to wow you on the screen. He doesnít have great speed, but heís the only thing this offense has on the outside at the moment. Heís seen double-digit targets in each of the last two games including an 8-106-0 line on 10 targets last week against the Falcons. If thereís a weak spot on the 49ers, itís in their secondary giving up four 100-yard games on the season (Lockett, Kupp, JuJu, MVS).

On the Fence: QB Justin Herbert, TE Gerald Everett

Itís hard to get excited about Herbert these days considering heís missing his top two wideouts and the team is lacking any big-play ability outside of Ekeler. OC Joe Lombardi basically admitted as much this week, saying ďwe're not an especially fast team right now, and so speed obviously helps. But there's scheme things we can do to improve on that." Herbert hasnít been running the ball as much as last season, likely due to the rib injury he suffered earlier this season. Despite the negatives, heís still hovering around QB10 thanks to consistently posting decent yardage totals (5th in passing yds). With Allen and Williams out, tight end Gerald Everett should continue to be an offensive focal point. Everett had a bad drop last week but has seen at least 7 targets in his last three games. Thereís nothing really to chew on with this matchup which is why weíre likely looking at low-end QB1, high-end QB2 from Herbert and a fantasy viable game from Everett.

Fade: N/A

LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20

No Brainers: RB Christian McCaffrey

Favorite: TE George Kittle

Kittle has been on a tear since Week 6, posting at least 80 yards or a touchdown in his last three games, averaging 8 targets during that span. His dominant 93% snap share means heís consistently on the field but his 16% target share trails the Tier 1 tight ends Kelce (25%) and Andrews (26%). The Chargers have allowed just 1 touchdown to tight ends this season (Dulchich) but did give up 6-88-0 to David Njoku back in Week 5.

On the Fence: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, WRs Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk

The bulk of the 49ersí passing game is seemingly in a good spot against a banged-up Chargers defense that ranks middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed. Deeboís rushing attempts have taken a dive this season and arenít likely to turn around with Christian McAffrey in town. As a result, Deeboís ceiling isnít what it used to be especially with Aiyuk playing well and demanding targets of his own. The 49ers No.2 receiver has seen 28 targets in his last three games, topping 80 yards each game during that span. With all of these weapons, Jimmy G is in a nice spot but could have a ceiling around 250 and 2 with Christian McCaffrey likely to dominate the second worse rushing defense in the league. This is a decent spot for the 49ersí offense, but Iíd temper expectations for any individual player not named McCaffrey.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: 49ers 27, Chargers 23 ^ Top

Commanders @ Eagles - (Caron)
Line: PHI -11.0
Total: 43.5

PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19

No Brainers: N/A

Favorite: WR Terry McLaurin

The Commanders are not an offense that fantasy managers should be keying in on for fantasy production, but if thereís one positive that weíve seen in recent weeks, itís the re-emergence of wide receiver Terry McLaurin. McLaurin hasnít been spectacular, but heís hit a bit of a stride, having delivered three straight double-digit PPR days while also being targeted 25 times over that stretch. Weíre probably not ever going to see him fully unlocked until the Commanders actually put a high-quality quarterback on the field, but for now, we should be at least confident in putting him in our lineups as long as Taylor Heinicke continues to feed him the ball. For further context, McLaurin had his first 100-yard game of the season earlier this year when he faced the Philadelphia secondary, so this matchup shouldnít be too scary for fantasy managers even though the Eagles look like they might be the best team in football.

On the Fence: RB Antonio Gibson

The difficult-to-predict season for Antonio Gibson continues to give fantasy managers headaches, as heís now fully entrenched in a split carry backfield with rookie Brian Robinson. The big difference seems to be that Gibson is being utilized substantially more often in the passing game, which could continue given that J.D. McKissic remains sidelined throughout practice this week and seems to be trending toward not playing again. Gibson looks like the more explosive, better overall back between him and Robinson, but heís not being given enough touches to make him a truly risk-free play.

Fade: RB Brian Robinson Jr., WR Curtis Samuel

Rookie Brian Robinson has been a great story to follow so far, but the reality is that heís in a pretty bad fantasy situation right now. Heís been minimally effective with his touches while splitting carries with Antonio Gibson and heís now facing a Philadelphia team that might get ahead early on the scoreboard. Robinson has seen only four targets in five games and Washington's offense just isnít good enough for them to rely on their running game to come from behind.

Wide receiver Curtis Samuel is coming off of a nice performance in Week 9 which saw him score a touchdown and contribute 81 total yards, but fantasy managers should be aware that heís now seen five or fewer targets in three of his past four contests. We couldnít assume that he was going to continue to see 10 targets per week like he was earlier in the year, but his volume has been cut in about half and heís only getting a couple of carries per week to sort of make up for it. You could do worse than Samuel, who did catch seven passes against Philadelphia when these teams played back in Week 3, but the Washington offense looks a lot different now than it did then, so donít be surprised if he gives you a dud in this one.

WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31

No Brainers: QB Jalen Hurts, WR A.J. Brown, TE Dallas Goedert

Favorite: RB Miles Sanders

We got another big volume game for Miles Sanders this past week as the Eagles rolled over the Texans on their way to their eighth straight win during this undefeated stretch. Sanders has been minimally involved in the passing game which has really been the only thing thatís kept him from a truly big fantasy season thus far, but heís now carried the ball at least 15 times in all but two games, making him one of the higher floor RB2s in fantasy. It is worth noting that he had his worst fantasy performance of the year when he played the Commanders back in Week 3, but he still touched the ball 16 times in that game, which is enough of an opportunity that we should be confident playing him in this one.

On the Fence: WR DeVonta Smith

The A.J. Brown show continues in Philadelphia and it’s now becoming obvious that DeVonta Smith is not being specifically featured by the Eagles. The second-year receiver has been held to five or fewer targets in half of his games this season and he’s only seen double-digit targets twice. His back-to-back games of fewer than 25 receiving yards would normally be enough for us to call him a “Fade” this week, but looking back at his Week 3 performance against this very same Washington defense does tell a different story. Smith put together a monster in that contest with eight catches, 169-yards, and a touchdown on a season-high 12 targets. Don’t expect that kind of target volume again, but Washington only scored eight points against Philadelphia in that game, so any sort of shootout could help all of the pass catchers in this one.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Eagles 27, Commanders 17 ^ Top