Notes: - All games will be available Friday
- Green highlight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
- Lines and totals updated Sunday morning
In the four games leading up to the dismissal of Shane Waldron,
Moore averaged 3.25 catches for 26 yards with no touchdowns. In
two games since Thomas Brown assumed the play-calling duties,
Moore has totaled 14 catches, 168 yards, and a TD -- he even added
18 yards on the ground. The offense has looked better in general
with a focus on getting the ball out fast to receivers with room
to work. While Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze have done more downfield
work, Moore has been given a lot of opportunities with quick hitters
near the line of scrimmage. That’s why he’s here instead of Allen,
who had a team-high 15 targets in Week 12, or Odunze, who led
the Bears in receiving in Week 11. It makes sense to try and get
the ball out of Caleb Williams’ hands in a hostile environment
to stay in favorable down and distance. As a WR3 with upside,
Moore is a solid addition to your weekly lineup.
As with Moore, Williams has seen a sizable uptick in production
since the switch at offensive coordinator. In two games under
Brown, the rookie has thrown for 571 yards and run 103 more while
tossing his first two TD passes since Oct. 13. Even within those
two games we saw growth as Williams was more aggressive versus
Minnesota, which included a couple of big-time throws. For as
good as he’s played, the Lions aren’t 10-1 by accident.
They do give up some yards through the air (227.2/game; 25th),
but they also have twice as many interceptions (14) as TD passes
allowed (7), which is why they are first in opponent QB rating.
Each week under the new offense gives opponents a better read
on how to prepare. Plus, coming off yet another deflating last-second
loss, there could be some hangover there as well. That’s
a lot of X-factors that are working against Williams on Thanksgiving.
Fade: N/A
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Rewind just a few days and you saw Chicago completely shut down
Justin Jefferson, holding him to two catches for 27 yards. It
came at a cost, however, as the tandem of Jordan Addison (8-162-1)
and T.J. Hockenson (7-114-0) took advantage of all that attention
to light up the Bears secondary. While it seems unlikely the Bears
would give St. Brown that some level of attention -- with all
due respect, St. Brown isn’t JJ -- the Lions doubtless noticed
how the Vikings took downfield shots at Chicago, and Williams
is their designated deep threat. He’s a WR3 with big-time potential
this Thursday.
As noted above, Hockenson had tremendous success against the Bears
in Week 12, and his replacement in Detroit, LaPorta, has the talent
to take advantage, too. So, why isn’t he a favorite for
this week? Just look at his production this season. LaPorta has
just 28 catches on the year, and he’s posted three or fewer
in five of his last six games. Yes, the opportunity exists for
the second-year tight end to post TE1 numbers. He simply hasn’t
done it more than a few times this season, though, making him
a risky play even in what looks like a tempting matchup.
Despite championing Detroit’s secondary targets for potentially
big days, Goff lands on the fade list for Turkey Day. Beyond his
sporadic production over the last month, there are two main factors
behind his placement here. First, the Bears primarily struggle
with the running game, and Detroit has shown repeatedly they’re
more than happy to lean on Gibbs and Montgomery, assuming he’s
active. Second, Goff really struggled with Chicago a year ago.
In two meetings with the Bears, he averaged 199 yards per game
with 3 TDs and 5 interceptions as the teams split the season series.
Between those two items, this looks like a good week to lock someone
else into your QB1 slot if you have a good alternative.
Despite the Giants' offensive struggles under Tommy DeVito, Malik
Nabers remains a bright spot for fantasy managers. Nabers earned
a hefty 28% target share in DeVito's first start, continuing his
season-long trend of being the Giants' most consistent offensive
weapon. He has been targeted at least seven times in every game
this year, with 10 or more targets in all but three contests.
This consistent volume has translated to reliable fantasy production,
as Nabers has scored double-digit PPR points in all but one game,
even though he's only found the end zone three times (with no
touchdowns since Week 3).
This week, the Giants face the Cowboys, a team that has been
vulnerable to opposing wide receivers. Dallas just gave up a strong
performance to Terry McLaurin (102 yards and a touchdown), showcasing
their susceptibility to high-volume pass-catchers.
Nabers' consistent target share and the likelihood of the Giants
playing from behind make him a solid WR2 option in PPR formats.
While his touchdown drought limits his ceiling, his dependable
workload makes him a safe play, particularly in matchups like
this where volume should remain high.
The Giants’ backfield situation took a surprising turn in their
blowout loss to the Buccaneers, as Tyrone Tracy saw a sharp reduction
in his snap share compared to his pre-bye dominance. While Tracy
still maintained the lion’s share of touches (13 to Devin Singletary’s
4), the near 50/50 split in snaps raises some red flags for fantasy
managers ahead of their Thanksgiving matchup with the Cowboys.
On the bright side, Tracy's heavier usage in meaningful game
situations suggests he remains the favored back when the Giants
are still competing. However, given the Giants’ struggles
this season and their tendency to fall behind, it’s fair
to question whether this will translate into consistent opportunities.
The Giants’ possible focus on player health and future evaluations
could mean more involvement for Singletary, especially in non-competitive
scenarios.
This week, the Cowboys present a favorable matchup for running
backs. They’ve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game
to the position this season, including Joe Mixon’s monster 153-yard,
three-touchdown performance just two weeks ago. Tracy has shown
the ability to produce when given a lead role, and if the Giants
can keep the game within striking distance, he could see enough
touches to deliver solid fantasy production.
The optimistic view is that Tracy gets the bulk of the meaningful
work, especially against a soft Dallas run defense, making him
a high-end RB2 with upside. On the other hand, the pessimistic
view is that this reverted back to a split backfield, which limits
Tracy's ceiling, and the game script could again lead to more
work for Singletary. In this scenario, Tracy is more of a low-end
RB2 or high-end flex option.
Monitor the Giants' game plan and the in-game snap usage, but
for now, Tracy remains the better start of the two backs against
a generous Dallas defense.
Wan’Dale Robinson has been a fringe fantasy option for most of
the season, with little upside due to his limited role in a low-scoring
Giants offense. He faces even tougher circumstances now with Tommy
DeVito or Drew Lock under center. The low pass volume of this
offense significantly limits the entire passing attack outside
of Malik Nabers. Robinson’s PPR ceiling appears capped at around
10 points, even in favorable scenarios, as he’s more of a volume-dependent
slot receiver. While his best performance this season came in
Week 4 against the Cowboys, the context of that game (40 pass
attempts from Daniel Jones) is unlikely to repeat in Week 13.
The Giants seem committed to a run-heavy game plan to protect
their QB and their vulnerable offensive line, further reducing
Robinson’s potential target volume. Even though the Cowboys have
been susceptible to big plays in the secondary, Robinson’s low
aDOT (average depth of target) and limited usage in this offense
make him a poor bet to capitalize on any defensive lapses.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
There was some belief that Ezekiel Elliott’s return to the lineup
in Week 12 might reduce Rico Dowdle’s role, but the opposite occurred.
Dowdle saw his opportunity share increase, playing 61 percent
of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps in their win over the Commanders
and handling the ball 22 times in the game. While Dowdle didn’t
score a touchdown or produce any explosive plays, his consistent
involvement in the offense over the past month has been notable,
as he’s touched the ball at least 12 times in four consecutive
games.
This week, Dowdle gets a favorable matchup against a Giants defense
that has struggled mightily against the run, allowing the sixth-most
points per game to opposing running backs. New York has surrendered
at least 100 rushing yards and/or a touchdown to an opposing running
back in six straight games. In Week 12, they allowed three different
Buccaneers backs to score while Bucky Irving piled up 151 total
yards.
Dowdle previously led the Cowboys’ backfield when they
faced the Giants in Week 4, producing 61 total yards and scoring
on his lone reception. With this game projected to be relatively
low-scoring, the Cowboys are likely to rely heavily on their running
backs, putting Dowdle in a position for significant usage once
again.
The Cowboys still have an outside chance of making the playoffs
this season, which is likely the primary motivation behind potentially
having CeeDee Lamb play in Week 13. Lamb has been managing several
lingering injuries throughout the season, including back and foot
issues, and his practice availability has been limited for weeks.
Typically, Lamb has been able to play through these injuries,
so the expectation is that he will suit up again this week. However,
the short turnaround for the Thanksgiving Day game introduces
additional risk, as Lamb may see fewer snaps than usual due to
the reduced recovery time.
Despite these challenges, Lamb has maintained an impressive target
share. He’s been targeted at least 10 times in six consecutive
games, including this past week against the Commanders, where
he caught 10 of 12 targets for 67 yards. While his efficiency
has dipped with Cooper Rush at quarterback compared to his chemistry
with Dak Prescott, Lamb’s consistent involvement in the passing
game has made him a crucial part of the offense. His health status
and reduced recovery time are the only factors potentially limiting
his impact in Week 13.
Meanwhile, tight end Luke Schoonmaker has stepped up during Jake
Ferguson’s absence. Over the past two games, Schoonmaker
has caught nine of 14 targets for 111 yards and a touchdown, filling
in effectively as the Cowboys’ primary tight end. His fantasy
viability hinges on Ferguson's status, as the latter has been
sidelined with a concussion. Ferguson had not practiced as of
Tuesday, increasing the likelihood that Schoonmaker could retain
his role for the Thanksgiving game. However, if Ferguson is cleared
to play, he would likely reclaim the starting tight end spot,
which would significantly reduce Schoonmaker's role and opportunities.
Brandin Cooks’ impending return to the Cowboys’ lineup
has sparked some nostalgia for his days as a consistent playmaker,
but his tenure in Dallas has not lived up to those expectations.
Cooks had only one notable performance earlier this season before
three consecutive underwhelming games leading up to his injury.
His struggles reflect a broader issue within the Cowboys’
offense, which has been inconsistent without Dak Prescott under
center.
Cooks is expected to resume his WR2 role in Dallas, but the offense
has been heavily reliant on CeeDee Lamb, who has consistently
commanded an elite target share. This leaves little room for secondary
receivers like Cooks to make a significant impact, especially
in a system that has struggled to generate consistent passing
volume. With these factors in play, Cooks’ return may not
be the spark the Cowboys’ passing game needs to turn things
around.
In his eighth season and on his fourth team, Smith seems to have
found the perfect offense for him. After a quiet September, the
veteran has picked things up the last two months, averaging 65
yards per game over his last seven. He’s been particularly good
the last two weeks with 15 receptions (on 19 targets) for 188
yards and 3 TDs. Smith is currently third on the club in receiving,
36 yards behind Hill and 13 yards behind Jaylen Waddle. He’s not
at no-brainer status, but this is one instance where his designation
as a favorite is based on Smith’s ascent as a playmaker and not
the matchup. He deserves a spot in your lineup on Thanksgiving
night.
By any statistical measure, 2024 has been a disappointing year
for Waddle. Even when you consider the four-game span played without
Tua Tagovailoa, the numbers don’t look very good. After averaging
63, 80, and 72 yards per game, respectively, in his first three
seasons, the former first-round pick is logging 50 this year --
and that’s after he posted an 8-144-1 line versus New England
this past Sunday. That marked just his third game of more than
50 yards this season. Given his history, you must wonder whether
it’s the start of him turning the corner, or if it’s just an outlier.
Either way, things could be tough Thursday night. The temperature
is expected to be below freezing at kickoff, and the game is rarely
kind to warm weather teams in these spots, especially ones built
on speed. You can try Waddle as a WR3 and hope he bucks that trend,
but he looks like a risky play.
Fade: N/A
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
With Romeo Doubs (concussion) unlikely to play after suffering
a concussion on Sunday, Reed is likely to become the primary target
as he’s been more consistent than Christian Watson, who had a
brutal dropped touchdown against the 49ers, or Dontayvion Wicks,
whose role shrank after he struggled with drops earlier this season.
Tucker Kraft could also see an uptick in usage, though he’s not
the downfield threat that Reed can be. Reed has had a couple quiet
weeks in a row but is just two games removed from a 113-yard effort,
his third outing of over 100 yards this season. Given Miami’s
solid pass defense (197.5 yards per game; eighth), the weather
conditions, and the recent effectiveness of Green Bay’s running
game you still shouldn’t view Reed as more than a WR3 when setting
your lineup. He does carry some upside, though.
For an offense that many view as pass centric, Love hasn’t
done all that much passing recently. In his last four games, Love
has completed fewer than 15 passes three times, though he did
bow out with a groin injury against Jacksonville. There have been
no such issues the past two weeks, though, when he’s connected
13 times each time. In Chicago, it was a byproduct of the Bears
possessing the football for long drives. Against the 49ers, it
was the success of the running game. Playing for the second time
in five days, there’s little doubt the Packers would love
to control the ball, so Jacobs might be Plan A, and while Miami
has played well defensively during their three-game winning streak,
their schedule during that time featured Las Vegas and New England
at home. Love has proven he can deliver value in limited opportunities
courtesy of Green Bay’s explosive plays, but he’d
be a dicey pick for your QB1 slot.
