Notes: - All games will be available Friday
- Green highlight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
- Lines and totals updated Sunday morning
Broncos @ Saints- (O'Hara) Line: DEN -3.0 Total: 37.5
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Bo Nix has come on as a legitimate fantasy asset in the last
month. He’s the QB12 over the last four weeks and is averaging
17.7 FPts/G during this stretch. This is all while averaging just
174.5 passing yards and 1.25 passing touchdowns per game. How
is it possible that Nix has been a fantasy QB1 with this sort
of aerial production? Nix is one of football’s most underrated
dual-threat quarterbacks. He’s averaging 6.0 FPts/G on the
ground and 36 percent of his fantasy scoring this year has come
as a rusher. His rushing ability makes him a reasonable option
as a bye week fill-in.
Based on Nix’s 174.5 passing yards per game, you’d
likely be able to guess that Denver’s receivers aren’t
making the biggest impact. Courtland Sutton is the most utilized
receiver in this offense by a wide margin but is the WR47 in points
per game. Sutton has drawn a target on 25 percent of his routes
which has amounted to 7.7 targets per game. So how is he averaging
just 10.1 PPR points per game? Well, out of 76 pass catchers with
25-plus targets, Sutton ranks 75th in catchable target rate. A
catch has been possible on just 59 percent of his targets. Sutton
is tempting to start given his volume, but it’s hard to
do so given Nix’s struggles as a passer.
Javonte Williams’ role has steadily improved in recent
weeks. Over the last three games, Williams has played 63 percent
of snaps and held a 61 percent opportunity share. For most backs,
this is enough to sustain fantasy-relevant production. It isn’t
for Williams; he’s averaging just 10.2 FPts/G with this
usage. Williams’ quality of play and the Broncos’
offensive environment both play a role in his struggles. Until
one of those factors improves, he belongs on the bench.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
A barrage of injuries to the Saints’ offense has left Spencer
Rattler as the starting quarterback and Bub Means as the WR1.
Some may be tempted to start Means because of his new role, but
this is just an offense to avoid. With Rattler under center last
week, the Saints’ offense averaged just 4.6 yards per play
and could not sustain a drive. They had more drives that resulted
in negative offensive yardage than drives of over 50 yards. Given
the state of this offense, it’s impossible to start anyone
other than Kamara.
