Editor's Note: Recenlty
members of the FFToday Board completed their annual June Mock draft.
This mock will be played out in a best ball format (no transactions,
no free agent pickups, no trades) ... properly named the "No-Hassle
League." View the round-by-round
results here. Below is the commissioner's analysis of each team.
Analysis: Most years in fantasy football, having
the first pick means you get fantasy's most dominant player. This
year, all of the top players have flaws including Christian McCaffrey
whose injury history is quite significant. That said, it's hard
to argue against the idea that McCaffrey has the highest floor
of any player when healthy and carries a lofty ceiling as well.
In what has become a traditional approach to team building in
recent years, Dan then proceeded to load up on another running
back, a trio of wide receivers and a stud tight end prior to finally
addressing the QB position in round 7. The result is a deep team
at WR even though I wouldn't consider St. Brown or Waddle true
WR1s, especially in a non-PPR league. I also think when both are
healthy, Tua will outscore Deshaun Watson more weeks than not,
providing Dan with upside at that position despite him waiting
a while to address it. The second half of Dan's draft felt a little
funky with higher risk selections like Allgeier (who is likely
only valuable if Bijan Robinson gets hurt), Claypool, and Edmonds.
In the end, this team looks very much like a contender if its
top RBs can stay upright. The initial eight rounds of picks contain
firepower galore.
Key to No-Hassle Success: McCaffrey and Sanders
between the twenties have proven to be big time contributors over
the years when they're on the field. The question, especially
for Sanders, is whether or not he will score touchdowns. I think
he's a lock for 1,200-1,500 total yards from scrimmage, but I
question how often Carolina will include him in their goal line
packages. The receiving corps appears to be solid in terms of
reliability and as wide receivers get hurt less than running backs,
the odds are good there that Dan will get production all year
long from that group. It's the running back depth, that I'm most
concerned about for reasons already noted. Seventeen games or
close to that number from both McCaffrey and Sanders might get
this team a championship. But health is never promised and in
the case of both, it might be a desperate wish more than anything
else. Here's hoping I'm dead wrong about the fragility of both.
Favorite Pick: Despite all I've said about Sanders,
I thought he was a steal at 4.12. Like steal of the draft kind
of steal if he remains on the field. Carolina has proven they
can run the ball no matter who lines up in the backfield and Sanders
is an upgrade over everyone who toted it for them during the second
half of last season. I also loved the Tagovailoa pick. He has
such elite weapons and that should carry him to a top ten finish
easily among quarterbacks. Stacking him with Waddle just seems
like a recipe for some scoring bursts - a very smart best ball
stack.
Least Favorite Pick: I would have liked a RB3
for this team that has more guaranteed touches as I don't think
that applies to Allgeier, Gainwell, or Edmonds. In addition, George
Pickens was a tad early for my liking, but the upside of the pick
is hard to deny, so I can't hate on it that much.
Overall Outlook: Dan did nice work in this draft
of recognizing best available positional talent at each turn. For
example, WR talent was stronger at the 2-3 turn than any of the
RBs available at that time and Dan didn't stray from that reality
one bit in acquiring both St. Brown and Waddle. This team really
doesn't have a weak spot as Dan's willingness to turn around so
quickly after picking his first quarterback in order to grab his
second really shored up what could have been his weakest position.
All of the guys in this draft are well above average when it comes
to fantasy football acumen, but that doesn't mean every team in
the draft is above average compared to all the others. This one,
however, is just that. Very solid job by Dan the man.
Analysis: The quandary of how early to take Justin Jefferson
in redraft leagues this season is something people are going to
have to wrestle with. In the end, Robb decided there was no need
to let Jefferson slide past the second overall pick and followed
that selection up by bolstering the running back position with
three of his next five picks. Throughout the draft, Robb was willing
to let youth be served as he picked five players who are either
rookies or were rookies in 2022. Some like Smith-Njigba and Kincaid
could take time to grow into roles, so their part in this team
enjoying success may come later in the season. Also, one has to
wonder if last year's J.K. Dobbins is found in this year's Javonte
Williams. Dobbins never got quite right in 2022 and Williams is
no guarantee to get right this year either. The fact that neither
Denver nor Baltimore added a stud to their backfields, though,
bodes well for a comeback season from one or both. Rounding out
the 2022 disappointments looking to rebound in 2023 are QBs Lamar
Jackson and Russell Wilson. Whether or not their stock will rise
this season depends on the eye of the beholder. Clearly, Robb
is with them and presses forward with his team full of risks.
Key to No-Hassle Success: With Javonte Williams being eased in,
Jameson Williams suspended for the first six games, and Russell
Wilson looking to figure out what Sean Payton expects from him
in addition to the aforementioned duo of receiving rookies, this
team has to survive September and early October without falling
too far behind. I think Derek Carr and Chris Olave will find chemistry
early on, but even that connection carries with it some uncertainty.
In the end, with Jefferson's production a near lock, I'm looking
at Stevenson and Dobbins as the barometers for this team's success.
A great start to the season from Jefferson won't be nearly enough
to keep this team in the top half of the league standings, but
that combined with strong starts from Stevenson and Dobbins probably
will. Beyond that, the maturing of all the young players on the
team in November and December should give Robb a strong closing
kick. He just can't be too far behind when that wave finally comes
to shore.
Favorite Pick: I'm still scratching my head trying to figure
out how J.K. Dobbins fell to the fifth round. Yes, I know Lamar
Jackson threatens to take away runs and TDs on the ground, but
with Robb having snatched up Jackson as well, he's guaranteed
all of that ground production sans whatever scraps Gus Edwards
picks up. I also thought that David Njoku was the last tight end
prior to a significant drop-off at that position, so kudos to
Robb for not letting him slip past him. Finally, Kincaid was worth
the risk once Njoku was acquired as his upside in Buffalo is undeniable.
Least Favorite Pick: There was nothing egregious to be sure,
but Javonte Williams comes with some real risk, especially if
Samaje Perine shows out early in the season. Additionally, I have
nothing against Drake London, but I have some real question marks
about the goy throwing him the ball.
Overall Outlook: It's fun to draft a young team with upside
and having the biggest "sure thing" in all of fantasy
football after just one pick allows a team manager to take such
risks. That said, I do think this team struggles a bit out of
the gate. There is a heavy dependence initially on Baltimore's
offensive output and as such, what the Ravens can do offensively
in September might ultimately mirror the rise or fall of this
team. One thing I can guarantee, though: Wherever Robb ranks in
the standings after nine weeks will be bettered during the second
nine weeks. This looks like a team that will surge late and the
recommendation thus is not to sleep on them. Not even a wink.
Analysis: Mine was the first of four teams to begin their draft
with RB-RB. It's a "strategy" that used to be more popular
than it is now as the pool of reliable non-committee running backs
has shrunk each year to the point of greater value being placed
elsewhere, especially in Round 2. Beyond that initial duo, I added
the top quarterback on my board and then scrambled like crazy
to try to put together a decent receiving corps with what was
available in Rounds 4-7. All in all, this should be a team that
can compete all year long as long as that receiving corps doesn't
weigh down the ship too much. Being the first manager to pick
a quarterback will almost always lead to something of a deficiency
in other areas of the roster, but I also think QB is underrated
in this draft every year and having a guy that will put up 30
points plus more weeks than not was not something I was willing
to pass on once we got to Round 3. Breece Hall had the look of
superstar prior to getting hurt last season, but there's no guarantee
post-injury that he'll look the same this year. That means that
Mahomes and Ekeler could have to do some heavy lifting given the
overall uncertainties at WR and TE. This team has a lot of potential,
but there are some obstacles to overcome.
Key to No-Hassle Success: The wide receivers don't have to be
a top-five unit league-wide, but they probably need to finish
in the 6-8 range to keep championship hopes alive. Sure, Mahomes
and Ekeler are nearly "sure things" from week to week,
but the wideouts are anything but. D.J. Moore has the potential
to blow up (in a good way) on a new team with a game plan built
around him, but receivers on new teams always carry risk. In addition,
while Christian Watson looked fantastic at times as a rookie,
that was with a Hall of Fame quarterback throwing him the ball.
Now, it's Jordan Love. And, Mike Williams and Christian Kirk were
solid last year, but each will face stiffer competition for targets
this year with Quentin Johnston and Calvin Ridley now onboard
respectively. I think this is a top three team at QB and at RB,
but what they end up being at WR will ultimately float the boat
or sink it. I really liked my later round picks, so maybe that's
a path out of purgatory also if the receivers falter.
Favorite Pick: I am high on Ekeler, so it was a pleasure to land
him at 1.03 and not have to wade through a half dozen options
beyond that pick. However, what I liked best about my draft was
that I hit on WR targets in four consecutive rounds without having
to miss out on a single desired player. Further, if Alvin Kamara
misses time, Jamaal Williams could be a ninth-round steal. That
combined with the upside of Charbonnet and Warren gave me the
upside in reserve at RB that I was looking for.
Least Favorite Pick: I miscalculated on tight end a bit and ended
up with a player I don't feel great about in Freiermuth. Had trouble
choosing between him and David Njoku and I'm still not sure I
made the right choice. In the end, I should have gone TE sooner
to avoid such a lukewarm state.
Overall Outlook: No one ever comes out of this draft believing
that they have assembled the ideal team and my beliefs are consistent
with that reality. I really like the fact that the top QB and
RB on my personal board both made it on my team, but I also realize
that if Breece Hall struggles to return to form and/or if the
Jets become pass-happy with Rodgers at the controls, those two
"stars" may have to carry a lot more water than any
two players should have to. I do think picking four wide receivers
in a row restored balance to this team, but I still may not have
a single top-20 WR on the roster when all is said and done. That
can make a manager uneasy even if the potential for so much more
runs parallel to that fear.
Analysis: Ray's draft was a carbon copy of mine through four
rounds as we each chose the exact same positions. From there,
I opted to try to put together a worthy WR group, while Ray valued
a strong third running back and a second tier tight end as his
targets alongside a couple of receivers. As a result, Ray likely
has a receiver room with more questions than mine, but also higher
floors as Allen and Godwin are proven contributors and even though
Marquise Brown is on a bad team, he will be that team's top option
with DeAndre Hopkins having been released. All in all, the running
back group is the heart and soul of this team, along with stud
QB Josh Allen and if Barkley re-joins the Giants happy and healthy
prior to training camp, Ray should be good to go. The question
is: Will Barkley return to the team in that state? Brian Daboll
wants to build on all the success the Giants had last season and
he no doubt knows it will be impossible to do that without Barkley
as a primary weapon. Ray no doubt felt comfortable that the Giants
will make things right long before September as he purposefully
chose Barkley as the cornerstone of his team. This team is loaded
with above average talent at every position sans WR.
Key to No-Hassle Success: Let's state the obvious before we get
into the more subtle stuff. Barkley needs to be in the Giants'
lineup from day one signed to a new contract. Additionally, Kyle
Pitts needs to take a major leap forward from what was a bitterly
disappointing 2022 campaign. There's no indication yet that Pitts
can find the end zone more than a few times a season, and that
needs to change for Ray to be able to say he's getting value from
where he selected him. Obviously, this team is a little light
at WR, but much like my team, there will also be 30+ points a
week coming from the QB spot to supplement whatever the receiving
corps does or does not do. The question about how soon is too
soon to take a quarterback will always be a part of fantasy football,
but in the case of this year's "big three", Round 3
seemed like an ideal place to load up on the best the position
has to offer. Barkley and Pitts are thus keys, in my opinion,
but there are reinforcements should they not thrive as a safety
net.
Favorite Pick: Instead of going WR-WR in Rounds 4 and 5 to make
up for not having any through three rounds, Ray chose the best
player available at the time regardless of position in Dameon
Pierce. Sure, Pierce is on a bad team, but he was impressive for
most of last season and should be even better given another year
to learn his role in the overall offensive scheme. As third RBs
go, you simply can't do much better than Pierce. Also, kudos to
Ray for having the guts to take Josh Allen early. His production
over the past three years makes him more than worthy of that pick.
Least Favorite Pick: I fully expect Travis Etienne to be the
victim of some "load management" and see him thus as
more of a third round value than a second. Also, Keenan Allen
is competing for targets more than ever and Godwin could have
Baker Mayfield throwing him the ball. Hmmm...
Overall Outlook: Since I believe the drop-off after McCaffrey/Ekeler/Jefferson
is significant, I wouldn't really want to be picking fourth in
the draft if all three of those guys are already off the board.
Barkley seems like a bit of a shaky foundation and since Etienne
isn't a favorite of mine either, this team had me questioning
it a bit through two rounds. But, then things really rounded into
form in the rounds that followed to the point that I believe this
team is similar to mine, but also potentially better than mine
in spots, specifically at TE and RB3. Ray could have gone WR-WR-WR-WR
as I did from Round 4 on, but I think he chose reason over panic
and very much to his benefit. This team could make noise all year
long.
Analysis: Someone always has to be the last team to select a
starting QB and this year, Remote ended up being that guy. Like
Dan, he chose to pick another QB immediately, so the integrity
of the position was at least preserved for best ball purposes.
As is the case with most managers who choose riskier signal callers
in the middle rounds, Remote stocked up on talent at all the other
positions. Everything logical suggests that Jonathan Taylor should
bounce back from a disappointing previous season and the threesome
of Lamb, Cooper, and McLaurin is fantastic. Throw in the ideal
high floor RB2 that is Aaron Jones and you've got a team that
gained much from the sacrifices made at QB. In terms of the strengths
of the overall roster, there is balance between what Remote has
at RB and what he has at WR and that is something that's easy
to say you want, but often is difficult to obtain. Every player
picked in the first half of this draft felt like he was taken
a little later than he should have actually been picked. That's
always a good thing. In the later rounds of the draft, Remote
ceded control of his team due to a personal crisis, but his helper
did no harm with a mixture of safe and higher upside picks rolled
into one. All in all, this is a first-class unit.
Key to No-Hassle Success: I don't think the duo of Daniel Jones
and Geno Smith will ever be asked to carry this team metaphorically
speaking, but they need to at least be serviceable. For Jones,
that means the rushing prowess that he displayed during the latter
part of last season must be carried over into this season as well.
I think Remote will finish top five in receiving points and if
Akers doesn't get jumped on the Rams RB depth chart by a Dalvin
Cook signing, I think top five in rushing points is highly likely
to. Throw in a top five scoring TE and all the ingredients for
championship contention are there if QB does not become the Achilles
heel. It's always hard to know how two QBs of nearly equal value
will complement each other in any format, but especially best
ball and that's why Remote's outlook is capped just a bit. Should
Jones or Smith take another step forward this year, though, and
you've got a team ready to blow the top off this league and maybe
even win the whole thing.
Favorite Pick: The first half of this draft was gold in my opinion.
As I like Jonathan Taylor much more than Saquon Barkley, I would've
been thrilled to get him with the fifth overall pick. I also thought
the WR value really dropped off after Lamb, so nabbing him as
a WR1 to complement Taylor really seemed ideal. I was hoping against
hope that Lamb would fall two more spots to me actually. Finally,
Amari Cooper should be even better in his second year in Cleveland
than he was in his first. I thought he should have been picked
nearly a round earlier and loved that pick as a result.
Least Favorite Pick: Cam Akers and Devon Achane would be easily
de-valued if Dalvin Cook were to become a Ram or Dolphin and Akers
is on my do not draft list. I can't help but think the Rams will
bring in another RB to at least form a committee with him. Maybe
they don't...we shall see.
Overall Outlook: It's rare that I think ideal picks were made
in six of the first seven rounds, but that's the case here as
I like everything Remote did (sans maybe the Akers pick) between
Taylor and Goedert. His receiver group ranks among the league's
best in my estimation, but he didn't have to sacrifice a strong
run game or a top tier tight end to get it. This team could test
the theory that QB is so deep that one's starter really doesn't
matter all that much, but the league winner in my most significant
league last year rode Daniel Jones all the way to a title, so
maybe he's being vastly underrated as is. Whatever the case, this
team is almost a near lock to finish in the top half of the league
in my opinion and kudos to Remote for making so many timely picks.
Analysis: One of the biggest questions post-draft is always going
to be... how does the Travis Kelce team look? Kelce was not only
the sole non-RB/WR picked in the first round, he was also the
only one picked in the first two rounds. The Kelce team should
have a big edge at tight end as he's in a completely separate
tier at that position. But, can you build a strong enough mix
of RBs and WRs in the process? One thing is for sure. ICE didn't
take his foot off the gas. He chose to pair Kelce with one of
the most explosive QB-WR stacks there is in the form of Jalen
Hurts and A.J. Brown. Once that was in place, it became a rescue
mission to get some running backs in the fold and the result was
kind of the antithesis of what White Wonder did. James Conner
is a solid RB3 this season and more likely a serviceable RB2 given
likely rushing volume. But as a RB1, he's a fish out of water.
Will Alvin Kamara be around early on to help him out? When will
DeAndre Hopkins actually hook up with a team? And, is the trio
of Evans, Cooks, and Thielen simply too old? There are question
marks aplenty on a team that was constructed in a unique way and
will be a fascinating watch in the fall.
Key to No-Hassle Success: The top three picks here are going
to produce at high levels, it just comes down to whether or not
the running group implodes. David Montgomery looks like a safe
bet to be in Detroit what he basically was in Chicago, but the
other RBs on the roster carry some risk. Conner will be utilized
often, but on a team that could be worst in the league. To be
plain, Kamara needs to avoid a lengthy suspension and play a key
role in the Saints' offense for ICE to rank anything but last
or next to last in points produced via running back. Jalen Hurts
and Brown are the only players on the team still ascending in
terms of level of play and fantasy value and that is sometimes
a recipe for a fade during the second half of the season when
high upside youthful players begin to surpass. One of the veteran
receivers needs to have one more great trip around the sun to
keep this team competitive. Looking at you, Evans and Cooks...
Favorite Pick: I think DeAndre Hopkins could be a steal at 5.06
provided he gets on a team that will be able to properly utilize
what he has left. Having a spry Hopkins alongside A.J. Brown gives
ICE one of the better WR 1-2 punches in the league. Opinions vary,
however, on how much Hopkins actually has left in the tank. I
think he has enough that the pick was a solid one. Additionally,
the drop from Jalen Hurts to Jackson/Burrow is pretty steep. So,
getting Hurts in the middle of Round 3 was an excellent understanding
of how the tiers line up at that position.
Least Favorite Pick: There wasn't any one pick that I didn't
like, per se. I just think it's best to sprinkle a little youth
into every redraft and this team completely lacks that element.
No younger running backs and aside from A.J. Brown, no younger
receivers would make me a bit nervous.
Overall Outlook: Given the uncertainties that exist around Alvin
Kamara and DeAndre Hopkins, this team looks a little disjointed.
It was hard to tell as the draft went on exactly what ICE was
trying to do other than take the best players available in the
first three rounds and then hold on for dear life. This would
not be a team I would be personally comfortable with coming into
September, but ICE has a long history in this league of generating
tremendous success with unconventional rosters. This felt more
like a draft from the 11 or 12 spot given some of the built-in
risks. Maybe it's a collection of players that all come together
this fall to form a cohesive unit. We'll wait and see.
Analysis: If you're new to this draft, you might be thinking
"Does this guy like the Bengals or what?". Yes, Shovel
is a Bengals guy and yes, he always seems to take his fair share
of Cincinnati players, but the question is "Did he reach
in order to obtain them?" The big two are obviously Chase
and Burrow and in both cases, I don't think he reached at all.
It's a stack similar to what ICE has in Hurts and Brown except
instead of using picks two and three, Shovel used his first and
fourth picks. That made his selections at two and three critical
and the result was another team with major question marks at RB,
but strength everywhere else. Gibbs, Pacheco, Dillon, and Perine
are all guys who could contribute in meaningful ways, but no one
is going to look at them as a group and say they're ideal. Truth
be told, the reason that group is a bit underwhelming is that
Shovel put tremendous faith in Garrett Wilson in selecting him
in the second round. Shovel could have gone RB there and placed
Gibbs in more of the RB2 role, but he didn't and now he's got
a team that's going to rely on two young star receivers. It was
the ninth round before he grabbed his next receiver, so Chase
and Wilson better come to play.
Key to No-Hassle Success: Picks two and three, sandwiched between
Chase and Burrow. It can take time for a rookie RB to find his
footing, particularly in relation to a team's blocking scheme.
Additionally, second year wide receivers sometimes take a step
backwards before re-emerging in their third year. Both of those
possible outcomes do make Gibbs and Wilson the keys to this team's
fate. One wild card to consider is TE Darren Waller. The Giants
traded for him for a reason and may intend on making him the central
figure in their passing attack. If that ends up being the case,
it would take some pressure off of Gibbs and Wilson to gel quickly
with a new team and new quarterback respectively. I also think
Burrow staying healthy is critical for this team as Kenny Pickett
is not a guy I'd want to lean on for fantasy output. I do like
that Shovel mixed in youth and veterans, though and that should
allow for a decent scoring flow in a best ball format.
Favorite Pick: In hindsight, I should have picked Goedert or
Waller at 7.03 and I didn't. My loss was Shovel's gain as I thought
the addition of Waller at that point in the draft may prove to
be a game changer if he lives up to his potential in being the
second or third best fantasy TE in this draft. The two Lion rookies
also made sense given the upward trajectory of the offense. Sometimes,
when you see a train going fast, you hop onboard so you can enjoy
the ride. I don't know if Gibbs and LaPorta will fit in seamlessly
or at all. But, I know the potential is there and Shovel refused
to pass that up.
Least Favorite Pick: Since we don't know who Aaron Rodgers will
develop chemistry with, I thought Wilson was picked too early.
Just one man's opinion. I would be concerned that Rodgers will
lean too heavily on the familiarity of Allen Lazard. I have Wilson
as an early third rounder, value wise.
Overall Outlook: I have always found it fascinating how similar
side-by-side teams often look in this draft. Just as my team and
Ray's team bear a striking resemblance, so too do Shovel and ICE's
team. Neither guy really prioritized running back early on, opting
instead to build around a QB-WR stack and a top shelf tight end.
Only in Shovel's case, the tight end came at a much cheaper price
allowing for a few more potential stars to jump onboard in the
process. We're all still adjusting to life with no real "stud"
running backs, so perhaps a draft like this one is simply ahead
of its time. But, I'm not willing to throw in the towel on the
running back position yet and as such, this is a team of intrigue
but also some concern.
Analysis: How much does Derrick Henry have left in the tank?
That's the question many managers will be asking this summer as
they contemplate taking the superstar with their pick. There's
little doubt that defenses key on Henry and for the most part,
he's been able to overcome. But I remember how quickly Shaun Alexander,
another power back, faded once he hit the wall and I could see
that coming for Henry sooner rather than later. Once Worm committed
to Henry, it became about putting together a unit that wouldn't
require Henry to carry the team. And, I think Worm has done that
and then some with the additions of Adams, DeVonta Smith, and
Herbert. Adams has first round talent and ability, but the QB
change in Las Vegas is scaring off some fantasy owners. I think
that's a mistake and I think teams are going to be kicking themselves
for allowing Adams to fall as far as he did. There's also not
another WR more suited to be a sidekick to a star than DeVonta
Smith. Smith is considered the 1B to A.J. Brown, but I think he
could end up the 1A by season's end. Throw in a healthy Herbert
and I think you've got a formidable team here.
Key to No-Hassle Success: The fourth-round selection of Dalvin
Cook is a bit of a boom or bust pick given where he will be playing
remains a mystery. And while the same can be said of DeAndre Hopkins,
Hopkins looks more certain to get a decent number of touches while
Cook could end up in a full blown, multi-RB committee. The later
picks in Worm's draft really shored up any depth concerns making
this team one of the safest bets to contend for a title...unless
Cook becomes a bust. Then, your second RB is Rachaad White who,
like James Conner, will be playing on a really bad team. That
might dampen the optimism.
Favorite Pick: Despite my feelings about Henry (see below), I
loved this draft primarily because I loved what Worm did in Rounds
2, 3, and 5. I think Adams and DeVonta Smith were both steals
and I especially feel that way about Herbert who was limited all
season last year due to an injury. Those are three high impact
players that I would have loved having on my team. I also liked
the pick of Gabriel Davis and Matthew Stafford late. I know many
are down on Davis after last season, but the Bills didn't add
to their WR room giving him a second chance to leap forward.
Least Favorite Pick: This was a bit too early for Derrick Henry
for my liking. I do see a Shaun Alexander-like collapse in his
near future, although it may not come for another year or two.
Not sure how to feel about the Cook pick also given what little
is known about his destination at this time. Further, Schultz
as a TE1 doesn't excite me much.
Overall Outlook: This team is loaded with the potential to make
a big No-Hassle run. The WRs are explosive, the QB poised to rebound,
and the depth sufficient to fill in the gaps when the "stars"
have an off week. Two years ago, the RB duo of Derrick Henry and
Dalvin Cook would have been too good to imagine, but in 2023,
that might actually be the only thing holding this team back.
Running backs often age quickly and it could be that neither comes
close to matching past production, but if they each do have more
tread on those tires, watch out for this team as they should soar
like an eagle. All of these teams have question marks - some more
than others of course - but, don't let that sour you on the possibilities
for this dynamic group.
Analysis: In line with a more modern approach to fantasy team
construction, Matt already had three running backs and three wide
receivers picked before ever even looking at another position.
Picking a rookie running back in the first round of a fantasy
draft is a rare thing, but there's a case for Robinson to be picked
even sooner and the upside is massive even as the next two players
Matt took have high floors, but limited ceilings. Safe selections
like Harris and Higgins ultimately make sense, after you've swung
for the fences with a player who's never yet played a down in
the NFL. All in all, taking two running backs right off the bat
meant that Matt has no true WR1 for fantasy purposes and a starting
QB who is outside of the projected top 8. He also has a tight
end duo who both carry risk given that they're being drafted more
on potential than actual past production. But, the depth at RB
and WR make up quite a bit as having Brandon Aiyuk and Diontae
Johnson as your third and fourth wide-outs is icing on top of
the cake. There were some guys taken well before their current
ADPs (Jeudy, Cook, Richardson), but sometimes you have to go with
your gut and take some players whose careers are still trending
up. This draft felt organic and I always like that as a co-participant.
Key to No-Hassle Success: Robinson is probably the biggest key
and even though I'm not as high on Jeudy and Cook as Matt apparently
is, he's hedged his bets on both as Cook is not being asked to
be anything more than a RB3 on this roster and the presence of
three veteran WRs with proven track records (Aiyuk, Johnson, and
Smith-Schuster) allows the dice roll on Jeudy to be made with
comfort and ease. Robinson, though, could be a generational back
and in the hands of Arthur Smith, that's a very potent thing.
Smith has not shown himself to be an overall offensive mastermind,
but he found a way to get 1,000 yards out of Tyler Allgeier last
season and may get twice that in yards from scrimmage from Robinson
this go around. All that said, if Robinson doesn't rise above
what Najee Harris will likely do, this team's lack of high-end
firepower at QB, WR, and TE could come back to bite them. In other
words, Robinson doesn't need to be good or solid or even serviceable.
Matt needs him to be great.
Favorite Pick: Hate to keep talking about one player primarily,
but in honesty, Bijan Robinson was my favorite of Matt's picks.
I had him going off the board well before Derrick Henry and even
Saquon Barkley and I think he has a chance to be special this
season in Atlanta. In addition, getting Diontae Johnson two full
rounds after Brandon Aiyik just seemed absurd. I know everyone
is ready to jump on the George Pickens train, but Johnson has
been top five in targets in the NFL for years now. Can't allow
a target monster like that to fall to the eighth round. Shame
on us for doing so.
Least Favorite Pick: I don't care what the ADP is for Jerry Jeudy.
We all saw him end the season last year on something of a tear.
So, I can get behind that pick. James Cook? Less so. I think the
Bills will bring on one more back prior to training camp and make
that backfield a muddy mess. Also, most of Buffalo's rushing TDs
go to Josh Allen.
Overall Outlook: This is a high upside team that may have a high
floor. That's an unusual combination coming out of a draft, but
like I said, this didn't feel like a draft that Matt conjured
up from someone else's cheat sheet. Instead, he got guys who are
still on their way up in terms of fantasy and real world value
and he hedged all bets with solid choices in the middle and later
rounds. Dak Prescott may not be exciting as a starting QB, but
his steadiness combined with a few crazy games from Anthony Richardson
could be a sneaky good way to score in a best ball format. I like
this team quite a bit overall, but with Harris's low YPC and Higgins
stuck behind Ja'Marr Chase, Robinson must be the team's go to
player.
Analysis: Within the realm of a fantasy football redraft league,
there's conventional, unconventional, and then this conglomerate
put together by longtime No-Hassle League member, White Wonder.
While taking three running backs to open up a draft is hardly
unheard of, taking four in a row is different altogether. And,
given the fact that this is not a league in which a third running
back can be used as a flex starter, its occurrence was downright
shocking. It's also the reason many of the other teams appear
to be shallow in terms of running back depth as Wonder gobbled
up so many high-end runners early and never picked another after
the fourth round. Wonder did the unthinkable and didn't pick his
first WR until the seventh round allowing for him to find quality
starters at QB and TE. So, do we call this the "zero WR theory"?
After all, zero RB strategies have been around for some time now.
Wonder is throwing all his chips into the pile and defiantly stating
that wide receivers are a dime a dozen - a necessary, but not
critical piece of the overall puzzle. Or, maybe he just loves
the WRs that others have questions about. Whatever the case, this
draft was one wild ride.
Key to No-Hassle Success: The key to this team's success is something
that simply cannot be predicted. How will four running backs who
could all finish top ten in rushing points scored score collectively
from week to week? Also, can at least two of Wonder's six wide
receivers significantly exceed consensus expectations and give
him some balance? Who are the top candidates to even do that?
I would put my money on Toney and Thomas if they can stay healthy
with Tyler Lockett also producing his usual early season magic
before cooling down the stretch. It is entirely possible that
this receiving corps bombs in historic fashion, but if they somehow
rise above expectations, it's hard not to argue for this being
a potentially dangerous team. No one will likely outscore Wonder
as far as weekly RB points go. And, when you combine Lawrence
and Kittle's weekly output, that should be top half of the league
as well. Will the WRs then serve as an anchor or a surprise element?
Get your popcorn ready.
Favorite Pick: It is difficult for me to understand how Josh
Jacobs isn't a first-round pick in a non-PPR format. Jacobs led
all NFL rushers in yards last season by a wide margin and even
though 2023 won't simply be a carbon copy of 2022, Jacobs has
his back against the wall likely playing on a franchise contract.
Assuming they didn't wear him out last season, I think he'll finish
top five at RB and give Wonder a huge boost alongside Chubb. George
Kittle was also an extremely fortunate pick at 5.10. Did he really
almost last until the sixth round? Remarkable.
Least Favorite Pick: I know Wonder is a fan of what Alexander
Mattison might do this year in Minnesota given the lead role,
but his YPC last season was unimpressive. I likely would’ve
passed on him at 3.10 and taken a WR instead. But, in fairness,
Wonder didn't know in advance about Mixon still being available
in Round 4.
Overall Outlook: I hate to even speculate about this team. It
is so outside of the box that making a prediction about the collective
value of the players is difficult. I think Wonder may have stretched
the idea of taking best available player overall to its absolute
limits. And so, I will tentatively assign no definitive value
to this team as I am truly at a loss to know what success or lack
thereof awaits them. If that seems like an evaluative cop-out,
I plead guilty. I will say this, though. It is a lot of fun to
draft with people who think outside the box.
Analysis: Only two teams in this draft started WR-WR and only
one went picked another WR in the fourth round. That would be
Vikes who has put together a WR juggernaut as long as Tyreek Hill
can keep his head on straight. One of the more bizarre things
that happened in this draft was the freefall of Kenneth Walker
to the end of Round 3. I'm sure Vikes would have preferred not
to double dip on Seahawks at that 3/4 turn, but value is value.
And so, you have a team here that is super strong at one position,
has tremendous upside at another (QB), and is solid at a third
(TE). Running back is the place where Vikes may struggle beyond
as D'Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny are both now Eagles and thus
both vying for the same touches. In theory, grabbing both ensures
that a RB2 emerges from the duo, but that assumes the split ends
up being 50/50 and not further skewed by Kenneth Gainwell and
Boston Scott's continued presence. Great teams in this league
over the years have come in all shapes and sizes including several
WR-heavy units. This one can be the next in line for sure, but
Vikes would feel better about his chances if the RB room was sorted
out heading into fall.
Key to No-Hassle Success: The top two receivers on this team
need to stay happy and/or out of trouble. Hill's propensity for
rageful episodes was already noted, but Stefon Diggs is also not
a happy camper at the moment for entirely different reasons. Seventeen
games of Hill and Diggs is a nearly sure path to success, but
getting there could be a bit tricky. Then again, it's only June
and a lot of things may get worked out well before the season
draws near. In addition, Justin Fields needs to take another step
forward to make his selection in the fifth a valid commitment.
Some believe that Fields will easily match Lamar Jackson in scoring
and could end up in the same tier as Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen.
If that happens, he will have obviously been a huge steal. Beyond
all of that, it's just about the running game coming together.
Elijah Mitchell could be a league winner if McCaffrey misses significant
time with an injury, so that's something to keep in mind as well.
Favorite Pick: Zach Charbonnet is going to be a key contributor
in Seattle right off the bat, but I don't think he'll cut into
Kenneth Walker's workload to the point that I'd let Walker slip
to 3.11 in a redraft league. You typically can’t get the
kind of value Walker represents very often in this draft and it
may have been my favorite pick of the whole draft. I also liked
the strategy of getting both Swift and Penny as both are supremely
talented when healthy. If you had told me that Vikes could still
get the backfield he got after picking three wideouts in four
rounds, I would have hardly believed it.
Least Favorite Pick: I'm more concerned about Diggs than some
people. I think Davante Adams would have been the better pick
if Vikes wanted to go WR-WR. Diggs basically griped his way out
of Minnesota and now he's at it again. I even like Lamb and A.J.
Brown more than him.
Overall Outlook: This is our defending league champion and the
only manager who has won a championship based on this draft on
four separate occasions. As such, his outlook is always rosy even
when his strategies don't fully align with my understanding. In
this case, I do see the value in this draft as the upside is immense.
Guys like Walker, Fields, Burks, Metcalf, and Elijah Moore are
still on the way up in terms of increased roles and production
as players. Vikes has tapped into all of them while still adding
the surefire talents of studs like Tyreek Hill and Diggs. Again,
if Hill and Diggs are good to go, Vikes should be good to go as
well. Talent abounds. A title defense awaits.
Analysis: The last person to pick in this draft did so by selecting
a player who was on a torrid pace last season for a second year
in a row before getting hurt and having to be shut down. Cooper
Kupp has the potential to match the Justin Jeffersons and Ja'Marr
Chases of the world and if he does, he won't be the only "comeback"
player on this team. At some point in the last three seasons,
each of Deebo Samuel, Calvin Ridley, and Mark Andrews were held
up as either the best at their position for fantasy football purposes
or top five at worst. The addition of Christian McCaffrey to the
49ers roster hampered Samuel's value while Calvin Ridley went
AWOL and was then suspended for a year for gambling. As for Andrews,
his 2022 wasn't a disaster, but it wasn't much to write home about
either. The result is that Hawkeye was able to buy low on players
who are being readily questioned this season, but could rebound
in spectacular fashion. To me, it was a brilliant way to handle
that final draft slot. Aside from that nucleus, you have a team
long on TE talent, short on QB prowess, and young at WR. Eclectic
operation to be sure.
Key to No-Hassle Success: One player seeking to build on a very
good 2022 campaign is second round pick, Tony Pollard. Hawkeye
is no doubt hoping the Cowboys don't re-sign Ezekiel Elliott as
Pollard's role loses some upside. Even if they do, it's Pollard's
backfield now and if he can perform like a true RB1, that should
allow for high end scoring more weeks than not. The problem is
that no one really knows if Pollard can handle the increased workload
and therein lies the key to success. Hawkeye is also going to
need one of his two mid-round RB picks to exceed expectations.
Khalil Herbert has demonstrated great burst as a runner, but like
Tony Pollard, has never been given a feature role until now. Meanwhile,
Brian Robinson's role in Washington is being defined on the fly.
All in all, this team must find its identity as a rushing team
and find it early.
Favorite Pick: I thought Kupp was a great value at 1.12 as the
Rams appear poised for a comeback in general and Kupp should be
a target monster in that offense once again. I also thought the
pick of Cole Kmet in the tenth round was a steal for a guy who
really started to show some moxie last season down the stretch.
While most teams in the league are going to put up modest totals
from their TE duos, this team may have a double-digit scoring
TE two out of every three weeks, which is tremendous.
Least Favorite Pick: I didn't like how long Hawkeye waited to
take a back-up quarterback. The Cousins pick wasn't bad as he's
annually underrated from a fantasy perspective, but I would have
like to see Hawkeye turn right around and grab another QB in the
next round or two. This is not a position of strength for this
team.
Overall Outlook: I have no idea if Hawkeye was actually aiming
for the "buy low, comeback player" aspect of this team,
but it really turned into an identity for the group in Rounds
1 - 6 aside from Pollard. When you are picking from that 12 spot,
you often have to do more than just pick the best available player
- you need to take a bold strategic position and I think Hawkeye
did that either consciously or perhaps even subconsciously. Cousins
has to stay healthy as do a number of other players with recent
injury histories, but I would ultimately be satisfied with this
team if it were my own. If nothing else, it will fun to see how
Hawkeye's powerhouse lineup at WR stacks up against Vikings4Ever's
group all season long.
