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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer

Top 150 Big Board, Non-PPR: Version 1.0
Preseason Matchup Analysis

PPR | .5 PPR | Non-PPR

Every year about this time, there are plenty of folks in the fantasy industry who call it "ridiculous" to put much stock into analyzing potential matchups. While none of these folks have every aimed their arrows directly at me when they say this, it pains me a little bit. Why? It's bad advice.

Let me begin by saying their rationale is understandable. We don't know what November and December holds. For that matter, most of us don't even know what Week 1 holds. Just because a lot changes between now and then doesn't mean we shouldn't try to predict the future with what we know at the moment. After all, it is our job as owners to predict the future the best we can.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and our job as analysts is identifying when stocks may be poised for an increase or ready to tank. The schedule is one of the most assessable, easy-to-understand tools we have at our disposal to warn us of when impending doom may hit or success may be forthcoming. The trick is understanding how offseason additions and subtractions - both from a coaching and personnel standpoint - on defense can affect what offensive players do this year. A lot of folks don't have the time or desire to do this. I've done it for roughly 10 years, and I'm pretty certain I owe a great deal of my success to it.

Having said that, it's important to understand my PMAs have never been about ranking players based solely on projected matchups, but rather using it as a (small) part of my evaluation. In fact, the schedule is worth no more than 10 percent of my grade at any position and among the last of the five to seven factors I consider at each spot. The schedule alone does not make Odell Beckham Jr. or David Johnson an elite player at their position. My PMAs have always been about using matchup analysis to help unearth potential gems in the middle-to-late rounds.

Circling back to the original premise, Week 16 is not the time to find out Beckham will almost certainly be shadowed by Patrick Peterson. Owners should know that before they draft him. Does that mean OBJ is not a top-five fantasy pick? Of course not. It means owners should know the odds are somewhat unfavorable Beckham is going to be an elite player during their league's championship week before they choose him. If that sounds like more detail than one should consider, perhaps are getting an idea how much thought I put into this.

Don't get me wrong, there is plenty of good analysis in the fantasy industry. However, analysis without giving a second thought to potential matchups is incomplete, just as if a financial market analyst on TV didn't mention the history of the CEO in his/her second-quarter recommendation of a stock and based his/her opinion only on "recent trends." Like the stock market, fantasy football is full of plenty of moving parts, and it is important to be able to account for as many of the important variables as possible.

Now back to our regularly scheduled programming …

I am still fine-tuning my updated Success Score Index (SSI), which involves meticulously grading and assigning certain weights to several attributes that I feel are critical to fantasy success at that position, so that score will not appear on the first round of Big Boards this week or next. It is the number that allows me to compare apples to oranges across the positions. I also am not finished yet with scoring averages for each player, although I anticipate that will be included with the SSI for the second round of Big Boards starting in two weeks.

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red – For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – This one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green – For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers

Note: Next week, I will release my first Big Boards for 0.5 PPR leagues as well as The Fantasy Championship (TFC) and FFPC Big Boards. In the final set of Big Boards over the following two weeks, I will rank 200 players and present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the Non-PPR format:

 Non-PPR Big Board - Top 150
Rank Pos Player Tm Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 RB David Johnson ARI 25
2 RB Le'Veon Bell PIT 25
3 WR Antonio Brown PIT 29
4 WR Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 24
5 RB Devonta Freeman ATL 25
6 WR Jordy Nelson GB 32
7 RB LeSean McCoy BUF 29
8 RB Melvin Gordon LAC 24
9 WR Julio Jones ATL 28
10 WR A.J. Green CIN 29
11 WR Mike Evans TB 23
12 RB DeMarco Murray TEN 29
13 WR Michael Thomas NO 23
14 RB Todd Gurley LAR 23
15 RB Leonard Fournette JAC 22
16 WR Brandin Cooks NE 23
17 RB Jordan Howard CHI 22
18 WR Amari Cooper OAK 23
19 RB Jay Ajayi MIA 24
20 TE Rob Gronkowski NE 28
21 RB Dalvin Cook MIN 22
22 RB Lamar Miller HOU 26
23 WR Doug Baldwin SEA 28
24 WR T.Y. Hilton IND 27
25 WR DeAndre Hopkins HOU 25
26 RB Joe Mixon CIN 21
27 RB Isaiah Crowell CLE 24
28 RB Ezekiel Elliott DAL 22
29 WR Michael Crabtree OAK 29
30 WR Demaryius Thomas DEN 29
31 WR Allen Robinson JAC 23
32 WR Dez Bryant DAL 28
33 WR Davante Adams GB 24
34 RB Mark Ingram NO 27
35 QB Aaron Rodgers GB 33
36 QB Tom Brady NE 40
37 QB Drew Brees NO 38
38 WR Kelvin Benjamin CAR 26
39 RB Marshawn Lynch OAK 31
40 WR Keenan Allen LAC 25
41 WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI 33
42 TE Jimmy Graham SEA 30
43 TE Travis Kelce KC 27
44 TE Greg Olsen CAR 32
45 WR Martavis Bryant PIT 25
46 WR Tyreek Hill KC 23
47 WR Sammy Watkins LAR 24
48 RB Mike Gillislee NE 26
49 WR Emmanuel Sanders DEN 30
50 WR Jeremy Maclin BAL 29
51 RB Christian McCaffrey CAR 21
52 WR Alshon Jeffery PHI 27
53 WR DeVante Parker MIA 24
54 WR Jamison Crowder WAS 24
55 QB Russell Wilson SEA 28
56 RB Carlos Hyde SF 25
57 RB Ty Montgomery GB 24
58 RB Ameer Abdullah DET 24
59 TE Jordan Reed WAS 27
60 WR Terrelle Pryor WAS 28
61 QB Matt Ryan ATL 32
62 QB Cam Newton CAR 28
63 WR Golden Tate DET 29
64 RB Doug Martin TB 28
65 RB Tevin Coleman ATL 24
66 WR Julian Edelman NE 31
67 RB Danny Woodhead BAL 32
68 RB Jonathan Stewart CAR 30
69 RB Adrian Peterson NO 32
70 WR Willie Snead NO 24
71 WR Brandon Marshall NYG 33
72 RB Spencer Ware KC 25
73 WR Donte Moncrief IND 24
74 TE Kyle Rudolph MIN 27
75 WR Cameron Meredith CHI 24
76 WR Stefon Diggs MIN 23
77 WR Jarvis Landry MIA 24
78 QB Andrew Luck IND 27
79 RB Frank Gore IND 34
80 RB Bilal Powell NYJ 28
81 RB LeGarrette Blount PHI 30
82 TE Hunter Henry LAC 22
83 RB Derrick Henry TEN 23
84 RB Duke Johnson CLE 23
85 WR Eric Decker TEN 30
86 RB Theo Riddick DET 26
87 WR John Brown ARI 27
88 WR Pierre Garcon SF 31
89 RB C.J. Anderson DEN 26
90 RB Eddie Lacy SEA 27
91 TE Martellus Bennett GB 30
92 TE Tyler Eifert CIN 26
93 RB Rob Kelley WAS 24
94 RB Kareem Hunt KC 22
95 RB Darren McFadden DAL 29
96 WR Mike Wallace BAL 31
97 WR Adam Thielen MIN 26
98 QB Philip Rivers LAC 35
99 QB Jameis Winston TB 23
100 QB Kirk Cousins WAS 28
101 WR Randall Cobb GB 26
102 WR Zay Jones BUF 22
103 RB Terrance West BAL 26
104 WR Tyrell Williams LAC 25
105 WR DeSean Jackson TB 30
106 QB Dak Prescott DAL 24
107 QB Marcus Mariota TEN 23
108 RB Jamaal Williams GB 22
109 RB Jeremy Hill CIN 24
110 RB Matt Forte NYJ 31
111 RB Paul Perkins NYG 22
112 WR Kenny Britt CLE 28
113 TE Jack Doyle IND 27
114 TE Delanie Walker TEN 32
115 RB C.J. Prosise SEA 23
116 RB James White NE 25
117 WR Ted Ginn Jr. NO 32
118 WR Corey Coleman CLE 23
119 WR Jordan Matthews BUF 25
120 QB Matthew Stafford DET 29
121 WR Marvin Jones DET 27
122 TE Eric Ebron DET 24
123 TE Zach Ertz PHI 26
124 WR Rishard Matthews TEN 27
125 RB Devontae Booker DEN 25
126 RB Jonathan Williams BUF 23
127 WR Josh Doctson WAS 24
128 RB Thomas Rawls SEA 24
129 RB Darren Sproles PHI 34
130 QB Tyrod Taylor BUF 28
131 QB Derek Carr OAK 26
132 TE Austin Hooper ATL 22
133 TE Julius Thomas MIA 29
134 QB Andy Dalton CIN 29
135 QB Ben Roethlisberger PIT 35
136 QB Carson Wentz PHI 24
137 TE Cameron Brate TB 26
138 WR Kevin White CHI 25
139 WR Nelson Agholor PHI 24
140 WR Corey Davis TEN 22
141 RB Rex Burkhead NE 27
142 WR Sterling Shepard NYG 24
143 RB D'Onta Foreman HOU 21
144 WR Mohamed Sanu ATL 27
145 RB Jalen Richard OAK 23
146 RB Alvin Kamara NO 31
147 QB Carson Palmer ARI 37
148 QB Eli Manning NYG 36
149 RB DeAndre Washington OAK 24
150 RB Samaje Perine WAS 21

Next: PPR Big Board | .5 PPR Big Board

Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.