Preseason football is so many things, yet so very few things.
Millions of people love the idea football is back but can't stand
the fact games don't mean anything for another month. Most people
would also tell you there isn't much that can be learned from
preseason football, at least as it applies to fantasy football.
Let me begin by saying if more than two percent of your draft-day
preparation changed because of what you saw last weekend, you're
probably not playing this game right. It's good to note "surprise
starters" and things of that nature, but it is much more
important to see how individual players look - particularly those
who were hyped endlessly during the spring and early summer. Week
1 of the preseason gives us our first taste of that, but starting
up a player's bandwagon after one or two series of action - which
is all they are going to get in the first game in most cases -
is akin to calling a basketball player who hits his first two
shots or baseball player who goes 2-for-2 in his first two at-bats
a "breakout star." Enjoy the first two full weeks of
the preseason for what they are: no game-planning for the regulars
and a lot of back-end players fighting for jobs over the final
three quarters.
With that said, rankings tend to be highly volatile after one
week of preseason action. Prolonged camp injuries create some
of the mayhem, while a surprising trade or two - like the ones
that went down for Sammy Watkins and Jordan Matthews - shake things
up for every skill-position player as it affects playing time
and targets. Some of the most important things to remember: draft
late this month and/or early next month and be flexible in your
opinions about a player right up until the draft.
Let's get to this week's series of Big Boards…
For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain
the color-coding system before we start:
Red For lower-level players, a
red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week.
For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for
them at least one grade that week (i.e. from
WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level
lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).
Yellow For lower-level
players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier
player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall
right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average
production.
White This one that could
go either way. In some cases, I just dont feel like I have
a good feel yet for this matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups
are winnable for all levels of players.
Green For non-elite players,
the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup.
For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers
Note: Later this week, I will
release my first Big Boards for The Fantasy Championship (TFC)
and FFPC. In the final set of Big Boards over the following two
weeks, I will rank 200 players and present my final rankings for
kickers and defense/special teams.
Here is the scoring
system that I used to rank the players in the Half-Point PPR
format:
Most folks can pretty much agree on the top six running backs,
with the order of Nos. 3-6 (following the Ezekiel Elliott six-game
suspension) somewhat up in the air due to some minor issue(s).
For Devonta Freeman, he figures to have a somewhat capped workload
and runs the risk of losing touchdowns to Tevin Coleman. For LeSean McCoy, his age (29) and likely touchdown regression are potential
issues. (The list goes on.) However, none of the first six backs
are under any real threat to lose significant work. The same can
actually be said about each of the next four as well (Todd Gurley,
Jordan Howard, Jay Ajayi and Leonard Fournette). However, all
four have a "fatal flaw" that makes it nearly impossible
to significantly separate them from one another.
Gurley's workload is secure and it sounds as if HC Sean McVay
is happy enough with his abilities as a receiver, but the offensive
line is very much work in progress and faces a division full of
potential good - if not great - defensive lines. Landing Sammy Watkins last week make everyone's job easier, which is why Gurley
is the most likely of the second group to succeed. Howard has
a firm grasp of early-down work in Chicago and the team wants
him to the be the focal point of the offense, but the Bears figure
to be the worst of the four teams we'll discuss in this paragraph
and the next one. The presence of rookie Tarik Cohen cannot be
overlooked either. Chicago did not spend a fourth-round pick on
a highly-elusive, pint-sized speedster to return kicks and/or
punts. Howard struggled mightily with drops last year, so he is
probably the one back of the four who will be most impacted by
either game flow or a lack of favorable running situations.
Jay Ajayi is one of a group of top running
backs with "issues" that make them difficult to
separate from one another.
Next up is Ajayi, who should also have no real challengers to
a consistent supply of touches each week for a coach who wants
to feed him the ball. He's also reportedly made significant strides
in the passing game. So what's the problem? The Dolphins have
arguably downgraded up front after finishing 22nd in the league
in Football
Outsiders' adjusted line yards, 28th in power success (late-down
or goal-line runs from the 2 or closer which achieved a first
down or touchdown) and 31st in stuffed percentage (runs where
the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage).
Ajayi was wildly inconsistent from Weeks 10-17 and struggled to
be a RB2 over that time just about as often as he served as one.
The Jaguars are probably more committed to running the ball than
any of the aforementioned teams, but Fournette probably has the
most competition for carries in his own backfield. Is it a long-term
concern for someone with his talents? No. But even if he shares
work for the opening month, it's going to be difficult for him
to keep pace with all the backs mentioned earlier. And if T.J.
Yeldon steals even half of the work in the passing game, the rookie's
avenues toward reaching fantasy stardom may be delayed until 2018.
The third round isn't an ideal time to start taking big-time
risks, but this year's draft is shaping up to be one in which
the hit-or-miss rate is going to be extremely high. We have Rob Gronkowski's injury history, Joe Mixon's potential for shared
backfield touches, Allen Robinson's "situation" (uneven
quarterback play plus run-heavy offensive philosophy), T.Y. Hilton's
"situation" (possibly without Andrew Luck), Ezekiel Elliott's suspension and the list goes on. With so much uncertainty
surrounding so many potential high-end players in this area, a
strong case can be made to invest into a top-three quarterback
(Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees), even though I spent
some time earlier this summer advocating
waiting on the position. Although he enters his age-40 season,
Brady may have the best set of offensive weapons he's had in 10
years (2007; Randy Moss, Wes Welker, etc.) and perhaps in his
career. While I'm not going to predict another 50-touchdown season
like he had a decade ago, a year in which he goes for 4,500 yards
and 40-plus touchdowns seems more than doable against a fantasy
schedule that contains four games against the NFC South and five
inside the Patriots' own division. While Peyton Manning's 2013
campaign doesn't figure to be topped anytime soon, Brady could
very easily have the best fantasy season from a quarterback we
have seen since. Although the position has been devalued in fantasy,
was Manning worthy of a third-round pick four years ago?
Note: Bear in mind the scoring system I am using
here is six points for ALL touchdowns.(If you
desire rankings where passing touchdowns are worth four points,
you are in luck. My TFC Big Boards are coming out in a couple
of days and are standard-scoring PPR leagues that give four points
per passing TD.)
The fallout from the Elliott suspension is that Dallas figures
to rely a bit more heavily on Dez Bryant or does it? Defenses
will still respect Darren McFadden, but not to the point they
did with Elliott, meaning more attention can and probably will
go to shutting down Bryant. That last part was already going to
be an issue given the level of cornerbacks Bryant is expected
to face in 2017, so it is becoming increasingly more difficult
to consider him even a third-round value. It is much more likely
Cole Beasley (and perhaps rookie Ryan Switzer) gets peppered with
targets as the slot receivers become even more of an extension
of the running game than they were in 2016.
There's been a recent clamor for Martavis Bryant as a top-10
fantasy receiver. In order for him to do that - assuming no one
between Antonio Brown and Michael Thomas on my board gives up
their spot - he would have to outperform Brandin Cooks, Amari Cooper and/or Doug Baldwin. Is the talent there for him to do
so? Sure. However, let's consider the major hurdles he needs to
overcome to reach that goal: he's likely no better than the third
option in his own passing game, relies heavily on the big play
and plays with a quarterback with dramatic home-road splits in
recent years who is almost guaranteed to miss at least a game
or two again this season. I may buy him sometime in the fourth
round just to say I own a share or two of him, but it's obvious
he needs a lot to work in his favor to be the WR1 some people
are making him out to be.
Fantasy owners can be a curious lot, constantly hoping and praying
for someone (preferably a coach) to say something positive about
a running back only to overcompensate by sending him skyrocketing
up their draft boards the minute it happens despite any and all
past transgressions. I fear that is happening with Carlos Hyde.
Let's start with what we know: in 297 career runs out of the shotgun,
he is averaging 4.8 YPC. In 118 carries under center, the average
is 3.1. Just as a point of reference, Atlanta ran a total of 919
plays out of the shotgun formation in two years under then-OC
Kyle Shanahan, who is now the San Francisco 49ers' head coach.
A total of 150 of those plays over the two seasons were runs.
Understand I have as much faith in Shanahan to mold his offensive
system to his running backs as any play-caller, but Hyde has never
really enjoyed much success outside of anything but a shotgun-based
offense. He is playing for a team likely to face a ton of negative
game scripts due to a poor secondary and has never played a full
season in college or the pros. Those kind of questions marks might
be acceptable for a running back operating behind the Dallas or
Tennessee offensive lines, but you'd be hard-pressed to find even
one 49er offensive lineman who would start on either one of those
teams. I dig the fact Shanahan likes where Hyde is from conditioning
standpoint, but that only potentially changes one of the question
marks (durability). And in case anyone cares, the Niners' top
back faces a murderer's row of tough run defenses beginning in
Week 8.
Doug Martin represents a potential rare value pick at the running
back position this year, although his three-game suspension and
relative lack of use as a receiver makes him an early fifth-round
pick for me at best. GM Jason Licht's threat last month that Jacquizz Rodgers could hold onto the starting job after Martin returns
seems hollow at best and came shortly after Licht suggested Martin
may be one of those players who may need a "carrot"
to be dangled in front of him. He's a potential steal as a RB3/flex
option and a very good option for owners who opt to go WR-WR-WR.
I'm expecting to own about 10 money-league teams this year. It
would not surprise me if Jeremy Maclin ends up on about five of
them. (Before we go any further, my ranking of Maclin assumes
Joe Flacco will be ready for the season.) Greatly undervalued
in the mid-to-late seventh round, Maclin seems to be getting punished
for either playing last season with a torn groin muscle, heading
to Baltimore to play with an average quarterback like Flacco or
both. Danny Woodhead could come close to absorbing all of the
targets Dennis Pitta (121) is leaving behind, but someone has
to replace the targets left behind by Steve Smith (101), Kyle Juszczyk (49) and Kamar Aiken (50). Sure, Mike Wallace (116) and
Breshad Perriman (66) could take on bigger roles, but this offense
needs someone to fill the void left behind by Smith. Last year,
a 37-year-old Smith finished with 70 catches, 799 yards and five
touchdowns and finished as the WR41 in half-point PPR leagues
in total points despite missing two games. If Smith merely hit
his 10.4 point-per-game average in half-point PPR scoring over
those two "other" games, he would have finished as the
WR24, just ahead of Wallace.
Sammy Watkins is among the many players who has the widest range
of potential outcomes facing him. He claims to be fully healthy
at the moment, but his foot problems will remain an issue until
they aren't. Jared Goff has the skill to be a good quarterback
in this league, but can he make even one receiver fantasy-viable
this year? And good luck against one of the most difficult schedules
for a receiver, which includes two dates apiece against Patrick Peterson and the Legion of Boom, one each against Janoris Jenkins
and Josh Norman as well as games against the vaunted defenses
of Houston and Minnesota. Watkins should create some big plays
regardless of his "situation", but I have a hard time
seeing him piling up the number of catches he needs to be a force
in a half-point or full-point PPR leagues to make up for the relative
lack of touchdowns he figures to score.
Duke Johnson has been a favorite of mine since he entered the
league in 2015, although he had the misfortune of being in the
same draft class as Isaiah Crowell, who was a first- or second-round
talent who went undrafted due to some off-field red flags. The
turnstile that has become the quarterback position in Cleveland
has really worked against the all-purpose back as well, as it
is hard for seven different quarterbacks (not including Terrelle
Pryor) over a two-year time period to make sure a receiving back
gets his touches. At the very least this year, it appears HC Hue
Jackson has a supporting cast in place to utilize his backfield
the same way he did in Cincinnati with Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard. The main difference with Jackson is he is a more gifted
runner than Bernard and looks to be in position to double as the
team's primary slot receiver, which sounds something relatively
close to a Theo Riddick-like role, only with a more talented player.
Further consider he should be running behind one of the better
offensive lines in the NFL and figures to have a number of negative
game scripts (positive for him) in an offense that will likely
struggle to score. It's not hard to imagine Johnson finishing
among the top 20 players at his position, especially if he sees
even a moderate increase in carries.
How is it possible that some by like Martellus Bennett is flying
under the radar in this day and age? Despite lacking what most
would consider quality options, Green Bay has targeted the tight
end position 103 times in each of the last two seasons. Imagine
how much that number might go up with a Pro Bowl-caliber player
like Bennett on board. Yes, Lance Kendricks may be able to steal
as many as 40 looks, but I laid out a very plausible scenario
in my NFC Workload Projections article in which Bennett pushes
80 targets. Two years ago, Richard Rodgers finished as the TE10
on 85 targets, albeit with Jordy Nelson on the sidelines. Last
year, Jared Cook averaged 5.1 targets (works out to just over
80 for a 16-game season) and he hardly had time to build a rapport
with Aaron Rodgers during the season. History and talent both
point to Bennett seeing at least 80 targets, while his size (6-7,
250) screams "red zone option." Bennett fought through
an ankle injury for most of last season and still finished as
the TE8 in half-point PPR. His floor is probably in the 60-catch,
700-yard and six-score neighborhood. His ceiling? Try 75-80 catches,
850-900 yards and 8-10 scores.
The trade of Watkins to the Rams plus the subsequent acquisition
of Jordan Matthews and earlier signing of Anquan Boldin leaves
Buffalo with three players who are probably best suited for a
slot role, at least initially. At 36 years of age, Boldin is almost
certainly going to get those duties. Matthews ran 329 of his 490
routes out of the slot last year for the Eagles (per Pro Football
Focus) and has essentially been deemed a slot receiver by two
different regimes, so it may a bit much to ask him to handle No.
1 duties. As a result, Zay Jones seems pretty much locked into
one starting spot and is the only receiver Tyrod Taylor could
possibly have built any chemistry with so far. Thanks in large
part to a college offense that use him quite often on bubble screens
and quick-hitters, the rookie has been a bit miscast as a possession
receiver. While that figures to be his long-term role, his 4.45
speed at the combine and ability to get behind defensive backs
at the Senior Bowl showed me he has what it takes to be a No.
1 receiver in time. Buffalo has very little behind its
top three receivers and probably isn't planning on more than 150
combined targets from LeSean McCoy and Charles Clay, meaning there
is probably at least 100 targets waiting for whatever receiver
steps into the lead role.
The Seahawks surprised many by unleashing Thomas Rawls as the
first back through in their preseason opener and, as I talked
about earlier with Hyde, he's going to fly up draft boards. There's
obviously nothing wrong with moving Rawls up if you believe he
will hold off Eddie Lacy for the early-down job, but it really
doesn't change all that much about what we knew with Seattle a
week ago. Lacy would still seem to be the obvious pick for goal-line
duties, while C.J. Prosise is pretty much be locked in as the
main option on passing downs. Rawls is a violent runner who has
a poor history of staying healthy and a running style that doesn't
lend itself to long-term durability. I would argue Seattle is
one of the last places I would look this year for a potential
bell-cow runner to emerge from a committee, and I would also argue
the one back most likely to do it is the one who will be the last
in line to get a chance (Prosise).
It's the preseason, so it must be time to talk about Nelson Agholor
again. The Eagles went all-in with him as the primary slot receiver
following the trade of Jordan Matthews, who was beloved by most
- if not all - members of the Philadelphia locker room. With Alshon Jeffery facing one of the more difficult slate of matchups of
any receiver in the league, it wouldn't be shocking if Agholor
finishes third behind Jeffery and Zach Ertz in targets. Whether
that is a 50-catch season or something much bigger - if he can
push Torrey Smith for first-team snaps on the outside - remains
to be seen, but he warrants a selection at the end of drafts.
Another name to keep an eye out for in the slot: TE Trey Burton.
OC Frank Reich went into some detail with Philadelphia reporters
following a recent practice about that very possibility. He even
referenced the fact QB Carson Wentz likes having him (Burton)
on the field, and we saw the combination work in small doses last
season.
It's getting harder and harder to rank Paul Perkins inside the
top 150. Yes, you are reading that correctly. HC Ben McAdoo called
out Perkins following the preseason opener for failing to get
a first down in the open field. Orleans Darkwa has been stealing
at least a few first-team reps from Perkins and Shane Vereen -
for however long he can stay healthy - has a firm grasp on passing-down
work, taking away one of the things Perkins does best. The shame
of it all is Perkins could handle all the work if McAdoo truly
wanted him to do so, but that doesn't appear to be something the
latter wants to happen.
Fans of Corey Davis figure to be outraged by his ranking on this
list. That's OK, because I wish I didn't have to him as low as
I have him. The No. 5 overall pick got some work in during rookie
camp and was a full participant during minicamp before pulling
his hamstring about a week into training camp, so he's not quite
in the same position as someone like San Diego's Mike Williams
from a preparation perspective. However, his current week-to-week
status makes him a very dicey proposition for a team that does
not lack for talent at receiver. Asking a rookie - no matter how
gifted - to beat out Eric Decker and Rishard Matthews during the
season is a tall task and probably only something that will happen
if the front office wants it to happen. If Davis can show he's
ready before the end of the preseason, I might be willing to put
them inside the top 100. If not, Matthews is looking like a value
pick once again this year.
ESPN's Adam Caplan on Sunday (Aug. 13) remarked on Mike Clay's
Sirius XM show that Travis Benjamin has been "the best receiver
in camp and is faster than ever." The offseason and training
camp is littered every year with coaches and front-office types
hyping their players, but I tend to take peer-on-peer praise a
bit more seriously. Then again, are we really surprised? Benjamin
played through a knee injury last season that required arthroscopic
surgery over the winter after coming out of the gate fast in his
first season as a Charger. The situation is obviously changed,
as Allen is healthy again, Tyrell Williams has emerged and Mike Williams is waiting in the wings. However, we are only a season
removed from Benjamin being a fantasy football darling in Cleveland
of all places, doing so with Josh McCown, Johnny Manziel and Austin Davis throwing him the ball. Mike Williams appears to be doing
better and is reportedly eyeing a return in October, but Benjamin
is really only another Allen injury away from being in a similar
position to the one he was in around halftime of the first game
last season. At worst, he projects to be the best deep threat
on what should be a very high-scoring offense. At best, a healthy
Benjamin emerges as a poor man's Brandin Cooks.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.