Remember how I said last week
my overall Big Boards were not going to change significantly over
the remainder of the preseason barring injuries?
Yeah, so last weekend happened. (Yet another reminder as to why
it is foolish to sink more than a few dollars into this hobby
until after the third full week of the preseason has finished.)
Three fairly high-profile fantasy players (Spencer Ware, Julian Edelman and Cameron Meredith) going down in a matter of a few
days stirs the pot for a lot of big changes on the NFL teams they
play for and a slew of minor changes in the overall rankings.
If you are somehow unfamiliar with my color-coding system, allow
me to explain it before we start:
Red For lower-level players, a
red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week.
For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for
them at least one grade that week (i.e. from
WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level
lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).
Yellow For lower-level
players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier
player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall
right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average
production.
White This one that could
go either way. In some cases, I just dont feel like I have
a good feel yet for this matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups
are winnable for all levels of players.
Green For non-elite players,
the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup.
For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers
Two other items require an explanation:
1) Success Score Index (SSI) - This score is
an apples-to-oranges number I reach after meticulously grading
and assigning certain weights to several unique attributes to
each position that I feel are critical to fantasy success.
2) Please note the different colors to the “Pos”
column below; I am taking this step to allow owners to delineate
where one tier ends (regardless of position) and where another
one begins, essentially using the same concept NFL teams do with
a horizontal board during the NFL Draft. The fact each tier is
a different color is merely to easily separate tiers; nothing
more or nothing less.
Here is the scoring
system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format:
Be aware these rankings are for PPR leagues which award six
points for all touchdowns and start one quarterback, two running
backs, two receivers and one tight end along with a flex.
Why did I feel the need to issue that reminder? Because traditional
fantasy logic suggests quarterbacks have no business being ranked
No. 26 overall (Aaron Rodgers), much less No. 20 (Tom Brady).
And it's OK by me if you don't want to buy into what I am about
to sell, but hear me out anyway: after the elite running backs
and receivers are gone, there will still a substantial number
of "complementary pieces" at both positions that most
owners should be able to start every week lasting until roughly
the sixth or seventh round. Can you say with any certainty players
like Davante Adams, Jamison Crowder, Brandon Marshall, Mark Ingram,
Duke Johnson or Bilal Powell won't give you similar fantasy production
to that of Allen Robinson, Martavis Bryant, Lamar Miller and/or
Joe Mixon? Conversely, how many quarterbacks in the league are
capable of accounting for 40 or more total touchdowns this year?
Maybe three, if you believe Drew Brees can be as effective without
Brandin Cooks.
Both New England and Green Bay used the offseason to address
their most pressing concerns on offense - New England landed a
premier deep threat who can do it all in Cooks and Green Bay added
a top-10 tight end in Martellus Bennett. At least this year, there
is very much an upper strata of quarterbacks and then
the rest of the pack. I have a firm belief the Packers will try
to run a balanced offense this year, which is about the only reason
why I don't have Rodgers as my top quarterback. Of course there
is an argument that can be made taking a quarterback in the third
round put you behind the rest of the league because it sets you
back in terms of landing a quality RB2/WR2. In case you haven't
noticed from my example in the previous paragraph, the third round
of most drafts doesn't look all that much different than the fifth
or sixth this year. When you look at it like that, separating
yourself from the pack by getting an extra five to six points
per game from the quarterback position doesn't seem like such
a bad idea. If Brady and Rodgers play all 16 games this season,
I feel quite confident they - perhaps along with Brees - will
give you a fair amount of separation from the rest of the quarterback
group.
Most of the fantasy world believes Lamar
Miller is an overhyped, unexciting RB2 who is biding his time
until D'Onta Foreman takes his job. I believe Miller is one of
the better backs in the league whose strengths are not being featured
in Houston. We've all heard what he isn't or can't do: among other
things, he wears down after 20 carries, he doesn't generate yards
after contact and he's not built to last. In Miami, he didn't
miss a game in his last three straight seasons and was routinely
an important part of the passing game - twice topping 50 targets
despite never really becoming a featured back. He routinely made
a living on big plays on perimeter and/or off-tackle runs.
In his first year in Houston, Miller was asked to run 89 times
up the middle behind a replacement center who ended up holding
his own (Greg Mancz) and two guards who graded out among the worst
run blockers at their position in the league (Xavier Su'a-Filo
and Jeff Allen). (As an aside, during Arian Foster's last
two "significant" seasons with the Texans in 2013 and 2014, he
was rarely used to run up the middle.) Miller's
623 offensive snaps were his fewest since 2013. His 39
targets were also his fewest since the same season. I recognize
the last two of those stats are low primarily because he missed
two full games, but don't you think it's possible a proven outside
runner who was asked to run it up the gut and played roughly half
the season through shoulder and/or ankle injuries was poised to
break down and/or disappoint a bit statistically? Perhaps it might
explain his low yards after contact as well. After all, not all
yards after contact averages are created equal.
One of the reasons I was high on Miller last year was because
I saw how HC Bill O'Brien used Arian Foster as a receiver the
previous two seasons. The lack of screens and/or swing passes
- especially considering how much of a small-ball offense Houston
had last year - was also hard for me to comprehend. All of this
is to say that Miller will be a fine RB2 if he continues being
used in a similar fashion that he was in 2016, which is how he
is being ranked above. Just know there is potential for a lot
more if O'Brien is willing to give more of the inside work to
Foreman and more of the perimeter work to Miller.
There has been a fair amount of research done to conclude running
backs - if not all skill-position players in general - from winning
NFL teams have a much better chance at finishing inside the top
12 at their position in fantasy scoring than those who play on
losing NFL teams. Obviously I'm not saying productive fantasy
players cannot come from likely losing teams, but when we are
talking about the top of our drafts, we want to check off as many
boxes as possible. With that in mind, I can no longer keep Leonard Fournette in the mid-to-late second round. I can also no longer
consider Allen Robinson an early third-rounder given the Jags'
undesirable quarterback situation either. Fournette's projected
heavy workload, talent and supporting cast (i.e. his receivers)
would typically be enough to make him a top-20 fantasy pick, but
isn't his situation appearing to a bit reminiscent of Todd Gurley's
from last year? Both are supreme talents in an offense that will
struggle to score because their play-calling/quarterback play
will do virtually nothing to lighten the box.
Fournette and his owners at least have the benefit of knowing
if one Jaguar quarterback unexpectedly starts playing well, the
gloom-and-doom should disappear because Jacksonville has enough
good or great receivers to make it work. The problem? Blake Bortles
has regressed and Chad Henne has never proven he can sustain what
limited success he's had in the league. The workload will make
Fournette relevant in fantasy regardless of his situation, but
in an offense with little hope for averaging more than 17 points
per game and the fact he's already dealing with injury, he's a
much better selection as a RB2 in the third round than he is in
the middle of the second. As for Robinson, he still finished as
the WR26 last year in PPR leagues despite awful quarterback play,
and while a repeat of that fantasy finish would not be ideal,
it is much more palatable from a player at the 3-4 turn than it
is the 2-3 turn.
One of the biggest risers on my board over the last week or so
is Terrelle
Pryor. He (and the Washington offense, to be honest) obviously
did not do much in the most recent preseason game to justify to
jump, so what gives? Do me a favor and watch his only catch of
the Green Bay exhibition game near the end of the first quarter
and then watch this
video breakdown. He is nearly impossible to stop on in-breaking
routes and his size (6-4, 228) makes him a nightmare on high-point
throws near the end zone. Washington ranked only above Houston
and the New York Jets last season in red zone efficiency. Coaches
and coordinators have yet to actually draw up a 2017 game plan
yet, but it isn't hard to understand what Pryor's purpose should
be in Washington this year after watching the aforementioned clip.
My lack of faith in HC Jay Gruden and Pryor's brutal second-half
schedule are the only two realistic roadblocks I see keeping Pryor
not settling as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 this season. Yes, I
still expect Jordan
Reed and Jamison Crowder to be the focal points of the passing
game, but even a full 16-game schedule from both figures to account
for only 250 of a likely 600 targets. And as we all know, Reed
cannot be counted upon for 16 games. Pryor's floor should be in
the neighborhood of 70 catches and eight touchdowns.
No one admits to liking Jay Cutler, yet fantasy owners probably
disliked him a little less following the Dolphins' most recent
preseason game when he called DeVante Parker "a faster Alshon
(Jeffery)." (Thanks, Jay.) That comment alone probably spiked
his ADP a full round, but it serves to make a point some of us
already knew. Miami is ready to put its passing game in the hands
of Parker and see if he can fulfill the promise he has teased
us with for the first two injury plagued seasons of his NFL career.
I don't want Cutler to say anything else about Parker (I didn't
need him to say what he said to begin with) or see Parker explode
in this week's dress rehearsal; I was already convince he is ready
to shine now. While Jarvis Landry's presence figures to put a
bit of a cap on his statistical and target ceiling, Parker should
be a steal for owners if he is available in the sixth round and/or
can be used as a WR3/flex option this season.
One of the many reasons I've worked so much over the last few
years on my SSI algorithms is to serve as a counterbalance to
any kind of recent bias (as in a glowing report or a solid preseason
performance) I may encounter. When I have to go into a file and
edit multiple values in order to move a player up or down my board,
it makes me think twice about what I'm doing (and I like that).
Mike Gillislee is an example of one of the reasons why I wanted
to develop and use this methodology - to keep me in check. It's
too easy to knock 100 yards or two touchdowns off a player's projection
in the preseason when he doesn't play or disappoints, but doing
so ignores why he was signed by the team in the first place. (And
yes, I've accounted for this kind of thing in my SSI score.)
In Gillislee's case, he's in the unpredictable backfield of the
Patriots, and his continued absence from practice not only makes
him a poor bet to replicate LeGarrette Blount's fantasy success
from last season, but it may also make it impossible to secure
any kind of regular role in the early going. With that said, he
seems the most likely candidate of all the Patriots' runners to
cash in on about six to eight touchdowns inside the 1- or 2-yard
line this year and run for at least 700-800 yards. Given how deep
the backfield is this year as opposed to last season - when Dion Lewis was hurt and James White was the only other realistic option
to take a few carries off Blount's plate - New England could easily
give 100-ish touches to each of its four backs. It's an unlikely
but plausible scenario, especially when you consider how many
leads New England should be protecting and how much of a target
share the Patriots' backfield has occupied in recent years. Either
way, the depth and varied talents of each member in this backfield
should be just the warning owners need to make sure Gillislee
isn't overdrafted. OC Josh McDaniels didn't have much in the way
of options at running back in 2016. This year, he has four backs
that have all carried the load for a bit at some point in their
careers.
I know why HC Andy Reid had to unleash Kareem Hunt against Cincinnati;
I just didn't need to see Reid use him as much as he did last
week. Hunt was already higher on my board than probably anyone
else's. Given how good he looked against the Bengals, we are getting
dangerously close to needing to pay full price on him if he has
another good showing this week in Seattle. Like Parker, I'd just
as soon see Kansas City put Hunt in the garage and keep him in
there until they visit Foxboro to kick off the season. I'll be
very disappointed if he's not on nearly half of my high-stakes
teams when all is said and done.
Reports have started to surface that Blount may end up getting
released by Philadelphia sometime in the next couple of weeks.
Obviously, our only exposure to players is preseason action, but
the combination of the Eagles inexplicably using him on outside
runs this preseason and what appears to be a bit of a weight gain
makes his spot on this board very tenuous. Ryan Mathews proved
last season just the early-down role and the majority of touches
at the goal line was worth something, and that was exactly the
role I (and I think the Eagles) believed Blount would fill. I
still sincerely doubt Philadelphia would actually cut him, but
Wendell Smallwood is the only other back on the roster who could
conceivably be asked to handle more than 100 carries and/or serve
as the "muscle" on the goal line. At this point, I think
it's safe to say the Eagles probably will cycle all four backs
through the lineup and be highly unpredictable in terms of week-to-week
usage, outside of Darren Sproles serving in his usual quasi-lead/satellite
back role.
If there is one position on one team that figures to flummox
fantasy analysts and owners alike during draft season, it might
the receiver group in Tennessee. Rookie Corey Davis (hamstring)
has barely practiced with the team but has easily the most upside
and appears locked into a starting job. Rishard Matthews is the
darling from last season who has really done nothing to lose a
starting job and easily possesses the most chemistry with Marcus Mariota. Eric Decker is a proven red zone threat and underrated
in just about every other aspect of his game. About the only thing
that seems certain is that Decker will work out of the slot when
the Titans go three-wide. The problem is Tennessee wants to run
more two-tight sets, which obviously means one of those receivers
is going to see his playing time suffer since the Titans figure
run the ball about as well and about as much as any team in the
league. I've suggested for a few months that I believe Tennessee
will end up with a group of about three or four players - including
TE Delanie Walker - with between 50-65 catches and 5-7 touchdowns,
which is great for the team but leaves owners with a bunch of
unpredictability and low-end starters at best.
A month or so ago, Eric Ebron was on the verge of becoming the
trendy pick to break into the top group of tight ends. Unfortunately
for him, a month ago is about the last time he practiced too.
If 2017 ends up being the year for him, it won't be because he
made it obvious during training camp that he needed to be the
top priority in the red zone for Detroit. There is no way rookie
WR Kenny Golladay can or should be asked to replicate Anquan Boldin's
2016 season, but he almost has to be the first in line to try
given Ebron's extended absence. There were reports earlier this
summer to suggest Theo Riddick will take on more responsibility
inside the red zone, while Zach Zenner may end up as the goal-line
back. The total lack of predictability inside the 20 this year
is another reason to believe Matthew Stafford may have a high-end
QB2 ceiling.
As one would expect, once we get outside of the first 150 players,
the question marks on each player are as plentiful as the talent
in many cases. Of the last 50, my favorites to emerge as potential
fantasy starters at some point during the course of the season
would be Cooper Kupp, Marlon Mack, Smallwood, Josh Doctson and
Dwayne Allen.
In a pre-NFL Draft write-up of Kupp, I said the following: "Lack
of raw speed and acceleration will probably be the traits that
keep him from becoming a No. 1 receiver in the league, but evaluators
will have a hard time finding another receiver in this class who
is as crafty as a route-runner and has such good hands. As long
as his new team finds a way to make a home for him in the slot
and doesn't ask him to carry the passing game, he should be savvy
enough to become one of the better No. 2 receivers in the league
at some point." Owners got to see a brief glimpse of why
I was high on the Eastern Washington product this past weekend,
when Oakland did not have an answer for him. One of the many positives
from the Rams' acquisition of Sammy Watkins is that it will keep
Kupp in the slot. While we cannot pretend Los Angeles is going
to be an offensive juggernaut just because it had a good half
against the Raiders, enough stars are aligning for Kupp to be
a redraft asset, especially in PPR leagues. Watkins is a top-tier
talent (if and when healthy) who will demand the most attention,
Robert Woods is also a viable threat and Todd Gurley looks the
most explosive I've seen him as a pro. The offensive line is still
a question mark, so getting the ball out quick will be a high
priority. Kupp's ability to uncover quickly may allow him to push
60 catches.
In case you may not have been buying what I was selling in regards
to Mack earlier this summer, he quickly showed he is a cut above
the second- and third-stringers he was playing with last weekend.
By all accounts, Robert Turbin is the current handcuff to Frank Gore and will be the designated goal-line back, but Mack simply
offers Indianapolis the kind of big-play ability the Colts cannot
get from any of their other backs. Gore has been far too durable
to be terribly bullish on the rookie, so he doesn't deserve a
top 150 slot. If Gore's body begins to realize how old he is in
running back years as the season progresses, however, that could
change pretty quickly.
Smallwood probably deserves a spot higher than what he is getting
above, but Blount getting released is pure speculation at the
moment. If he remains on the team, then what is Smallwood's role?
The backup to Blount and his early-down/goal-line role and Darren Sproles in all aspects of the passing game? Or is Donnel Pumphrey
the guy for that? My point exactly.
Doctson can't seem to get or stay healthy for any length of time.
This year's problem is a hamstring, which comes on the heels of
last year's Achilles' issue. He brings a number of the same qualities
to the table that Pryor does, so Washington's offense could be
difficult to stop in the red zone if it can get some of its preseason
problems ironed out and Doctson is ready is roll. At the moment,
however, he appears to be behind teacher's pet Ryan Grant on the
depth chart.
Given the lack of durability over his career, Allen is best-served
to be a part-time player. He has a reputation as a good blocker,
but he fell behind Jack Doyle in that regard too by the end of
last season. However, he has always had a bit of a nose for the
end zone, perhaps making him a fine short-term replacement for
Rob Gronkowski should he be forced to miss time again this season.
Martellus Bennett's TE10 finish last season probably isn't realistic
for Allen because Gronk shouldn't miss half the season again and
the Patriots have more weapons. Still, Brady has made many a tight
end fantasy-relevant, so a 40-plus catch, six-touchdown season
probably cannot be ruled out for Allen in "relief" of
Gronkowski.
Next:Non-PPR
Big Board
| .5 PPR Big Board Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.