Passing
Game Thoughts: Mike Glennon ranks 31st in fantasy points
per game with 15.2, with only Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco scoring
fewer points per game this season. With a depleted wide receiving
corps and injuries on the offensive line to the starting guards,
the Bears rely on their running game and passes out of the backfield
to their tandem of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. The two backs
have combined for just over 60% of the passing targets this season,
far and away the most of any backfield in the league.
The wide receiving quad of Kendall Wright, Markus Wheaton, Deonte
Thompson, and Josh Bellamy should be avoided in all but the deepest
of leagues, as no Chicago wide receiver ranks in the top 60 in
fantasy points per game. Tight End Zach Miller appeared to be
a viable option with six catches for 42 yards on nine targets
against the Bucs Week 2 but then burned fantasy owners with one
measly reception on three targets last week against the Steelers.
Considering the fact that the Packers have allowed zero receiving
touchdowns and the fewest points to opposing tight ends this season,
starting Miller is a risky proposition. Look for the Packers to
dare the Bears to beat them outside with single coverage on wide
receivers, while stacking the box with safety Ha Ha Clinton Dix
up in run support.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Running Game Thoughts: The Bears are the only team in the league
with two running backs who average double-digit fantasy points.
The offense runs through Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen, with the
former posting 23 carries for 138 yards and two scores last week
against the Steelers, despite the fact that he is dealing with
a painful shoulder injury.
The Packers rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs
after three weeks after allowing both Atlanta and Cincinnati to
rush for more than 100 combined yards on the ground. The Bears
will look to pound the ball with their tandem of Howard and Cohen,
with Cohen getting the majority of third-down carries and receptions
out of the backfield. Both players are must-start plays, with
the shoulder injury concern of Howard making him a risky, but
lucrative start on Thursday night.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Aaron Rodgers continues to be an elite fantasy
quarterback with at least 300 yards passing in each of his first
three games, highlighted by a 313, three-touchdown game last week
against the Bengals. His 66% completion rate is right on par with
his career average, although his three interceptions in 2017 has
him on pace for the highest number of picks in his hall of fame
career.
Vic Fangio’s defense has been surprisingly effective against
the pass this season, considering the fact that starting linebackers
Jerrell Freeman and Nick Kwiatkoski are likely out for the season,
and safety Quinten Demps suffered a broken arm. No quarterback
this season has thrown for more than one passing touchdown in
a game against, with the Bears limiting Ben Roethlisberger to
16.4 fantasy points on 235/1 passing last week.
The Bears ability to limit opposing quarterbacks will be tested
by a Packers passing attack that will likely include the return
of Randall Cobb, who missed Week 3 with a chest injury. Also,
Jordy Nelson made it through last week without a flare up to his
strained quad, giving Rodgers a full complement of receivers for
Thursday’s matchup.
Starting tackles David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga were limited
participants in practice on Tuesday and remain questionable to
play against the Bears on a short week. Bulaga started against
the Bengals Week 3 after missing the first two games of the year
but managed only 47 snaps before re-aggravating his ankle injury.
Rodgers has managed to post the second-most fantasy points per
game without his starting bookends to the offensive line, but
there is no doubt that a return to action for either or both players
would be a boost for the offense.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Running Game Thoughts: Ty Montgomery looks primed for a bounce-back
game after posting a disappointing 12/35/0 line last week against
the Bengals. Montgomery did come through with eight receptions
on 12 targets, boosting the stat line for owners playing in PPR
formats.
Montgomery continues to be used at a ridiculous rate of 97% of
the snaps, well above any other running back in the league through
the first three games. His usage, mixed with his injury history,
begs the question if the Packers would be better off working in
rookies Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones.
The Bears have allowed a rushing touchdown in all three games,
including just under 100 total yards and a touchdown to Le’Veon
Bell last week. Look for Montgomery to continue that trend with
at least one rushing TD on Thursday night, while adding at least
five receptions out of the backfield. Injuries to the Chicago
linebacking corps have significantly limited their ability to
cover running backs that excel in man coverage on hip routes,
something that Montgomery excels at as the No.2 running back this
season in both targets and receptions.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With two road games and a tough home matchup
against the Minnesota Vikings, it is not surprising that Ben Roethlisberger
ranks outside the top 12 of fantasy quarterbacks (No. 14) through
the first three games of the season. Ben’s history of struggling
on the road is well documented (He averages just over 10 fewer
fantasy points per game on the road over the past four seasons),
and he has another tough divisional road matchup this week against
the Ravens.
John Harbaugh and the Ravens have excelled at limiting the Steelers
passing game at M&T Bank Stadium, with Baltimore winning four
of the last five meetings between the two teams on their home
field. Also, Big Ben has not thrown a touchdown pass against the
Ravens on the road since 2013.
Despite Roethlisberger’s struggles, Antonio Brown continues
to be an elite fantasy wide receiver and is a must-start in all
games. Brown has two double-digit catch, 100-yard games this season,
highlighted by an 11/182/0 game on opening day against the Browns.
With touchdowns in each of his last two games against the Ravens,
Brown should be considered an elite No.1 wide receiver regardless
of where the game is played.
As the 49th ranked wide receiver, Martavis Bryant has not lived
up to the preseason hype that made him a trendy pick in drafts
this summer. He has yet to post a 100-yard game this season, with
his one big game at home boosted by a 51-yard touchdown on an
otherwise pedestrian four target game. He is not receiving enough
volume to be considered a must-start, especially on the road where
his splits are significantly worse than at home.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Running Game Thoughts: The Ravens rank in the middle of the pack
(15th) in points allowed to opposing running backs after limiting
division foes Cincinnati and Cleveland to less than 100 yards.
Leonard Fouenette, Chris Ivory, and Corey Grant combined for 151
yards and a score on 29 carries last week in Jacksonville’s
lopsided win over Baltimore in London.
After receiving limited action in Pittsburgh’s opening
day win over the Browns, Le’Veon Bell is once again the
recipient of elite volume in both the running and receiving game,
with the sixth most carries and the ninth-most targets through
the first three weeks of the season. Unfortunately for Bell owners,
that volume has not resulted in elite level fantasy points, with
Bell currently ranked 15th in fantasy points per game, just .7
points per game better than 34-year-old Frank Gore.
Look for Bell to continue to receive between 20 and 20 touches
on Sunday, but don’t be surprised if he fails to have a
monster game. The former Michigan State Spartan has yet to score
a touchdown in Baltimore in his career, and Baltimore has allowed
only one top 12 running back game at home in the last nine games.
Passing
Game Thoughts: To say that Joe Flacco and the Ravens passing
game were abysmal last week would be an understatement, as Flacco
completed just eight of 18 passes for 28 yards and two interceptions.
A late garbage touchdown from Ryan Mallett to Benjamin Watson
(calf) saved the Ravens from their first shutout since 2002.
Ravens wide receivers rank dead last in the league, with a combined
stat line of 13 receptions for 132 yards. Jeremy Maclin is the
only wide receiver on the team worth owning in fantasy, and his
value is based on the fact that he scored a touchdown in two of
the team’s three games. Maclin is a risky start this week
against a Steelers pass defense that has allowed the fewest touchdowns
to opposing wide receivers over the past 16 games. That statistic
is somewhat buoyed by the fact that the Steelers play in a division
with only one elite opposing wide receiver (A.J. Green), but none
the less, it does not bode well for Maclin to have a big game
on Sunday.
After consecutive games with at least 90 receiving yards or a
touchdown, tight end Benjamin Watson is a decent play against
a Steelers defense that allowed Dennis Pitta to post a 8/75/0
line the last time the two teams met. With Flacco’s struggles
to stretch the field to his wide receivers (league-worst 5.7 depth
of target), Watson on underneath routes could be the only viable
option in the Ravens passing attack.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Running Game Thoughts: The Buck Allen hype train derailed somewhat
last week with Allen receiving only 14 touches for 28 yards, as
the Ravens continue to use a three-man rotation with Terrence
West, Alex Collins, and Allen. Collins finished with a team-high
82 yards on nine carries, while west posted a pedestrian 6/26/0
stat line.
Starting any of the Ravens running backs is a risky proposition
due to the fact that Harbaugh is not committed to naming a lead
back and peppering that player with carries. This is unfortunate
for owners of Ravens running backs, as the Steelers gave up two
rushing touchdowns and over 200 yards on the ground last week
against the Bears. You can run on the Steelers, but it is anyone's
guess how the usage will be divided between the three backs.
The loss of starting right guard Marshal Yanda to a season-ending
ankle injury in Week 2 is a significant hit to the Ravens offense,
as Yanda finished 2016 as the top-ranked right guard according
to ProFootballFocus.com. His absence in the London game was a
big factor in the pass protection struggles for the Ravens, and
his run blocking skills will certainly hurt all three Ravens running
backs going forward.
If faced with the decision to start one of the running backs,
Buck Allen makes the most sense based on the fact that the Steelers
have allowed the third-most receptions to RB’s this year.
Allen should receive at least five receptions out of the backfield,
making him an excellent flex option in PPR leagues.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The change at offensive coordinator from
Ken Zampese to Bill Lazor provided an immediate improvement for
Cincinnati, with the Bengals scoring 21 first-half points and
the much-maligned Andy Dalton completing 20-of-27 passes for 212
yards and two touchdowns. Quick throws and having Dalton get rid
of the ball quickly appeared to be a successful move for Lazor
and the offense, as two weeks of Dalton holding onto the ball
and getting sacked behind a subpar offensive line was clearly
not working.
As is often the case with a complaining squeaky wheel superstar,
A.J. Green was peppered with a season-high 13 targets in route
to 10 catches for 111 yards and one touchdown. Green should once
again be started with confidence against a Browns secondary that
has allowed a touchdown and/or 100 yards to opposing No. 1 receivers,
including T.Y. Hilton gashing Cleveland for 7/153/1 last week.
Andy Dalton went from being a trendy preseason late-round quarterback
option to waiver wire fodder after failing to record a passing
touchdown in his first two home games of the season. With the
new offensive philosophy and an attractive matchup against the
Browns, Dalton is once again in consideration as a streaming option
this week. He has finished as a top-12 QB in his last four games
against the Browns, while the Browns appear to have regressed
in their pass defense with the release of veteran Joe Haden.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: Another change to the Lazor scheme appears
to be a move toward using rookie Joe Mixon as the primary ball
carrier instead of Jeremy Hill. Mixon saw his usage in Week 3
jump up to just north of 55% of the snaps after spending the first
two weeks behind Hill and Giovanni Bernard on the depth chart.
The Browns run defense appeared to be much improved from the
previous season after limiting Le’Veon Bell to 32 yards
on 10 carries. But that improvement appears to have been a mirage
after the Ravens running backs torched the Browns for nearly 200
total yards and a score, and the venerable Frank Gore scored a
rushing touchdown last Sunday. The possible return of first overall
pick Myles Garrett could boost the pass rush of the Browns, but
their inability to stop the run should play well into Mixon owners
hands.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With rushing touchdowns in two of the first
three games of his rookie season, DeShone Kizer ranks 11th in
fantasy points per game. His 21.7 FPts/G is better than Matt Ryan,
Jameis Winston, Derek Carr, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger,
yet he continues to be ranked outside of the top 20 on most fantasy
football sites.
The Bengals’ pass defense ranks 18th in fantasy points
allowed to opposing quarterbacks, but those numbers should be
taken with a grain of salt as Cincinnati faced a limited Joe Flacco
(career-low 17 pass attempts), and rookie Deshaun Watson on Thursday
Night Football. In their only matchup against a viable passing
offense, Aaron Rodgers threw for 313 yards and three scores against
the Bengals defense.
The return of Vontaze Burfict from suspension will provide a
much-needed boost to the Bengals linebacking corps, as Burfict
was an honorable mention to ProFootballFocus’ All-Pro team
this year and is a force in the middle of the field.
After a breakout Week 2 performance against the Ravens in which
he caught seven passes for 95 yards, second-year player Rashard
Higgins came crashing back down to Earth with two catches for
10 yards last week against Indy. Veteran Kenny Britt returned
to top dog status, at least for one week, with three catches for
54 yards and a score after managing just two catches combined
in his first two games.
The most trustworthy pass catcher on the Browns and arguably
the most talented pass catcher is running back Duke Johnson. Johnson
ranks seventh among running backs in targets and is third behind
Chris Thompson and Christian McCaffrey in receiving yards. If
Andy Dalton and the Bengals offense can create a negative game
script, which is highly likely considering the Browns are the
only team this season yet to have a lead during a game, Johnson
will continue to be active out of the backfield and could be a
nice flex play in all formats, especially PPR leagues.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Running Game Thoughts: A favorite of many fantasy football writers
to be the next breakout running back, Isaiah Crowell is off to
the worst start of his young career, with 114 yards on 39 carries
and zero touchdowns. Head coach Hue Jackson mentioned numerous
times this offseason that getting Crow the ball more on the ground
would be a point of emphasis for the offense. But even the best-laid
plans can go out the window when your team has yet to play a second
of football with the lead.
The return of Burfict will boost a run defense that has allowed
only one rushing touchdown on the season and appears to be playing
better after limiting Ty Montgomery to just 35 yards on 12 carries.
Attacking the Bengals with running backs out of the backfield
has worked well so far this season (third-most passes allowed
to opposing RB’s), making Johnson even more of an attractive
flex play and No.2 RB in PPR.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Quarterback Matthew Stafford is one controversial
overturned Golden Tate touchdown from leapfrogging Alex Smith
as the No.3 fantasy QB after three weeks of action. Stafford faces
a tough defense against Vikings defense that has yet to give up
more than two passing touchdowns per game, including limiting
Drew Brees to just 291/1 Week 1 on Monday Night Football.
The strength of the Lions offense has been their ability to avoid
relying on one player in the passing or running game while using
different players to attack opponent's weaknesses. For example,
Stafford stretched the field with Kenny Golladay against an aggressive
Arizona secondary for two scores, while utilizing the tight end
and running back underneath routes against the Giants in the following
week.
With Xavier Rhodes shutting down Michael Thomas, Antonio Brown,
and Mike Evans in consecutive weeks, it would not surprise me
to see Stafford avoid Marvin Jones on the outside and focus his
attention on Golden Tate in the slot. Golden Tate’s move
to working almost exclusively out of the slot has been golden
for both Tate and his fantasy owners, with the veteran wide receiver
on pace for a career-high in receptions (112).
Receptions to running backs out of the backfield have been difficult
to come by this season, as the Vikings limited Le’Veon Bell
to four yards on four catches and Charles Sims to just one catch
for nine yards in their last two games. The Saints had more success
Week 1 with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram combining for nine catches
for 74 yards, but no running back has managed to reach paydirt
against the Vikings in 2017.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Running Game Thoughts: No team has allowed fewer fantasy points
to opposing running backs this season than the Vikings, an impressive
feat considering the fact that Minnesota has played against Pittsburgh
and New Orleans, two teams that ranked near the top of fantasy
points scored by RB’s in 2016.
The Lions backfield of Ameer Abdullah, Theo Riddick, Dwayne Washington,
and Zach Zenner has been a disaster for fantasy owners so far
this season. Abdullah leads the team in carries and ranks 34th
overall in fantasy points per game, but he does not receive work
inside the red zone, drastically limiting his value in standard
leagues. Theo Riddick leads the backfield in receptions, but he
is not getting enough work to start in anything but the deepest
of PPR leagues.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After a disappointing game against the Steelers
Week 2, journeyman backup Case Keenum delivered a career-best
369-yard, three-touchdown performance against an injury-depleted
Tampa Bay defense Week 3. Keenum completed 25-of-33 passes, included
eight of 11 throws to Stefon Diggs for 174 yards and two scores.
The breakout third-year campaign for Diggs continued after a 2/27
hiccup against the Steelers Week 2. Diggs currently ranks first
in fantasy points per game at 17.7, but his numbers are a bit
inflated considering his two big games came at home against a
terrible New Orleans defense and a Tampa Bay defense that was
missing four key starters on defense.
Diggs will likely receive the shadow treatment from Darius Slay
on the outside, with Adam Theilen working out of the slot against
Quandre Diggs. The Lions rank 15th in fantasy points allowed to
opposing wide receivers this season. Not great, but certainly
better than the Bucs and Saints, who rank first and seventh in
points allowed respectively. Both wide receivers are must-start
options in all formats, but expectations should be tempered somewhat.
Kyle Rudolph has been a disappointment this season as the 18th
ranked tight end in fantasy points per game. After finishing 2016
with the most targets and receptions of any tight end, Rudolph
is being used more as a blocker. His 11 targets through three
games is tied for 20th among tight ends, a far cry from his usage
last year.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Running Game Thoughts: Davlin Cook continues to impress, with
double-digit fantasy points in two of his first three games, including
a 22.9 point game last week against the Bucs. Cook posted an elite
level of touches (32) Week 3 while scoring his first touchdown
as a professional.
Cook should feast on a Lions defense that has allowed the 11th-most
points to opposing running backs, highlighted by Devonta Freeman
and Tevin Coleman combining for over 200 total yards and a score
last week. Cook’s usage in the passing game limits the threat
of negative game scripts forcing him off the field for a receiving
back, although this game appears to be a close matchup between
evenly matched divisional foes.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The coaching staff would prefer to limit
their quarterback to about 30-35 passing attempts per game and
pound it on the ground. Making matters worse for anyone invested
in this passing attack, Marcus Mariota is only completing 60-percent
of his passes through three games. For fantasy purposes that doesn’t
leave a whole lot of upside and really forces you to evaluate
whether Houston’s offense is going to score enough points
to force the Titans into throwing more than they normally do in
the second half. Need proof? Delanie Walker leads the team in
receptions after three weeks with 15 catches. The silver lining
in this numbers game is that when Corey Davis is sidelined-like
he is for Week 4 (hamstring)-the Titans’ dynamic duo in
the passing game gets just enough volume to be worthy fantasy
starters. Both Rishard Matthews and Eric Decker are riskier plays
going up against the Texans but I still like Mathews’ chances
of seeing double-digit targets with the current state of the defense.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: The Tennessee backfield is a true RBBC
these days with Demarco Murray the slightly better fantasy option.
Murray nursed a hammy injury last week but was able to start and
give the Titans a huge 75-yard touchdown run to pad his fantasy
line for the day. He has another tough matchup this week as Houston
has given up the eighth fewest fantasy points to opposing running
backs this young season. Derrick Henry dealt with a bruised thigh
against Seattle but is still expected to suit up against the Texans.
He is coming off two straight games with double-digit carries
and I don’t think that trend is going away anytime soon.
It is tough to support either one of the Titans’ running
backs as anything more than a low end RB2/Flex option for Week
4.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After failing to amass double-digit points
scored in each of the first two contests, the Texans fared well
in a shootout loss against the Patriots last week. Houston’s
passing game is tough to trust on a weekly basis as the offense
continues to evolve under their rookie quarterback. Deshaun Watson
is going to make a few mistakes like any rookie, but he is also
going to make things tougher on the Titans revamped secondary
by using his legs to extend plays. Watson will be brimming with
confidence and Tennessee’s inability to generate much pressure
on the quarterback (only five sacks this year, tied for fourth
fewest in NFL) creates a favorable atmosphere for DeAndre Hopkins
and the rest of the pass catchers.
One of those receivers is Will Fuller. The speedster can easily
add a whole new dimension to the offense when he is going right.
With the upside of playing him in his first game back, fantasy
owners should expect some potential downside considering he hasn’t
had much practice to with Watson and still needs to improve on
the drops that plagued him throughout 2016. Fuller’s return
will squeeze WR Bruce Ellington off the fantasy radar. TE Ryan
Griffin’s fantasy stock is on the rise. He returned to the
lineup last week after dealing with a concussion to open the year
and promptly scored one of Deshaun Watson’s two touchdown
passes in Week 3. The Texans have placed on C.J. Fiedorowicz on
the IR with a concussion so Griffin is going to get enough work
to be a top 15 TE option against Tennessee.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: It is starting to look like Lamar Miller
is repeating last season all over again. It has only been three
weeks, but Miller has yet to find the end zone or rack up 100
total yards in a single game. A good matchup this week could be
Miller’s best shot to produce like the quality RB2 he was
drafted to be before the season. He should approach 20 touches
in this game so long as Houston can get out to an early lead (I
think they will). That could spill over to rookie D’Onta
Foreman. The rookie has done well in small doses backing up the
veteran Miller. He’s separated himself on the depth chart
and is the clear “next man up” should something happen
to Miller but his upside is too low to plug him in this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: I would like to think Eli Manning and Ben
McAdoo are going to force feed the ball into Odell Beckham’s
hands in Week 4. The abysmal rushing game places a lot of pressure
on Manning to keep the chains moving. That means secondary targets
like WR Sterling Shepard and TE Evan Engram will have plenty of
room to work underneath as Tampa tries to contain OBJ. Fortunately
for Giants fans and anyone owning New York Giant pass catcher,
the Bucs pass defense has been dreadful. Tampa Bay is one of only
three NFL teams allowing opposing offenses to throw for over 300
passing yards per game on the year. If New York can execute their
offense and make smart decisions they shouldn’t have much
trouble putting points on the scoreboard and Eli will post strong
overall numbers. Nothing is certain with the Giants being prone
to untimely penalties and plenty of miscues but I’d roll
out Eli and company and hope this game turns into a shootout.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: New York’s backfield situation is
best described as a headless RBBC. Nobody has emerged and now
Orleans Darkwa (back) and Shane Vereen (calf) are dealing with
injuries that have caused them to miss practice time this week.
Of the two, Vereen’s injury seems to be more of a concern
but the reality is that your roster needs help if you need to
start anyone from this backfield. Paul Perkins is the defacto
starter and best shot to deliver for fantasy purposes but I wouldn’t
want to count on this offensive line until they prove they have
figure things out. If Vereen or Darkwa are unavailable for Week
4, Wayne Gallman could enter the mix to make things even muddier
in the Big Apple as the calendar flips to October.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Despite taking the loss a week ago against
the Vikings, Jameis Winston took a step forward as a passer. In
a tough match up he was still able to find his favorite target
Mike Evans nine times while notching his second and third touchdown
passes of the season to guys not named Evans. If the passing attack
can continue to find ways to beat defenses without force feeding
Evans the ball, Winston’s fantasy value will continue to
rise as the season progresses. TE Cameron Brate has seen his role
lessen from a year ago when the team lacked a target opposite
Evans. Consequently, his fantasy value is limited to “touchdown
or bust” consideration this week. The G-men have been solid
on the defensive side of the ball and the pass rush could be an
issue if the Bucs don’t have enough time to use Evans or
Jackson down the field. As a result, A few short fields from New
York’s mistakes and a conservative offensive game plan should
keep this game close enough for the regular fantasy starters to
finish the day with respectable fantasy totals.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No25.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Running Game Thoughts: Doug Martin will finish out his current
suspension this week, giving Jacquizz Rodgers owners one more
chance at delivering solid RB2 numbers in Week 4. After hitting
a wall against the Vikings a week ago, Rodgers faces a New York
Giants defense that is yielding the fewest rushing yards per game
in the league. Tampa Bay is doomed if they simply abandon the
run so don’t expect Rodgers to finish with a mere five carries
like he did in Week 3. Charles Sims is sucking up most of the
work on passing downs so Rodgers and his fantasy owners will need
a long run or two to get him into the top 20 at his position this
week. The lower floor should give risk adverse owners pause about
using ‘Q’ this week and I’d only consider him
as a flex in 12+ team standard formats.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tyrod Taylor currently ranks 27th in passing
attempts so it’s slim pickings for fantasy owners of the
Bills passing game. Taylor hasn’t been horrible. He has
tossed two touchdown passes in two of three games and added 106
rushing yards to make him a solid backup for fantasy owners in
two-QB leagues. On paper, Jordan Mathews is the best fantasy receiver
this team has to offer but Zay Jones has more targets. Neither
player is accounting for much offense and both are borderline
ownable in 12-team leagues. Charles Clay has already secured two
touchdown passes in 2017 and has been the most consistent fantasy
player in this passing game. If you are going to choose anyone
from the Bills’ passing game go with Clay and cross your
fingers. Taylor has never played against the Falcons, let alone
in their building. There is a path for someone to post a quality
fantasy line by the time this game ends but it involves Atlanta
getting up big on the scoreboard relatively early to force the
Bills into more passing situations. I don’t think Buffalo’s
defense is going to allow that to happen.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Running Game Thoughts: The Bills love to run and then run it a
little more. LeSean McCoy is going to be in everyone’s starting
lineup this week and it will be interesting to see if the Falcons’
improved run D can keep him contained. McCoy has nobody looking
over his shoulder and simply needs gear up for another heavy day
of work at the office. Atlanta has been decent against the run
this year but they haven’t faced an attack like Buffalo
so I’m guessing that ranking will look less appealing by
the end of Week 4.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Julio Jones always misses a little time
with an injury during the practice week then suits up on Sunday.
This week the team is giving him a little rest on account of his
back but it doesn’t look like anything fantasy owners need
to be concerned over as he gets ready to clash with the Bills.
Mohamed Sanu continues to post boring stat lines that play up
in PPR leagues but leave his value in standard leagues far too
dependent on his ability to score a touchdown. It just so happens
that Buffalo has yet to give up a single passing touchdown in
2017 so I’m not loving Sanu outside of PPR formats where
he can still be used as a flex in deeper leagues. Taylor Gabriel
reminded everyone that he has plenty to offer fantasy owners.
If teams load up against the run or spend too much time trying
to stop Julio, Matt Ryan can use Gabriel to strike for big plays
down the field-oftentimes resulting in a touchdown. He may be
too inconsistent to trust from week to week and this game figures
to be “shortened” with both teams keeping the clock
ticking with heavy rushing attacks so I wouldn’t take a
shot on him this week.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: He may only have one touchdown under his
belt but Tevin Coleman has started off the season looking mighty
“flexy.” Devonta Freeman has been exactly as advertised
leading the way so Coleman may never be more than the 10-15 touch
guy he currently is this week but his consistent role and output
in the offense makes him a valuable fantasy asset. Atlanta is
also never short on rushing touchdowns (four and counting so far
in 2017) so Coleman’s chances are still better than the
average “backup.” Buffalo won’t be pushed aside
easily and they know a thing or two about what it takes to run
the ball in the NFL. Look for everyone to grind out their typical
fantasy day in this “strength on strength” battle
with Atlanta’s one-two punch sealing the deal in the second
half.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz has one
of the highest ratios of deep pass attempts but he has been missing
his receivers at an equally high pace when he attempts to throw
down the field. While the efficiency is troubling, the attempts
give us hope that things could get better down the road. Unfortunately,
the deep passing game is very unpredictable at the moment. Still,
Alshon Jeffery is being targeted nearly 10 times per game, giving
him plenty of opportunities to give his owners a high floor with
high-end potential if he and Wentz can finally get in sync. With
Chargers cornerback Jason Verrett out for the season, Casey Heyward
will likely shadow Jeffery, but that doesn’t necessarily
mean a downgrade for Jeffery who should be deployed as a WR2.
After a breakout performance in Week 1, slot receiver Nelson Agholor
has fallen down fantasy boards with just three catches over his
past two games and should not be trusted in this matchup. Torrey
Smith is still a player to look at but he should be on fantasy
benches until he starts seeing a higher target share. Target share
is not a concern for tight end Zach Ertz, however, who is currently
tied with Jeffery as the most-targeted player on the team. Ertz
has already made a whopping 21 receptions over his first three
games and given the numerous injuries to many of the league’s
top tight ends, Ertz has established himself as an elite option
until proven otherwise.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Running Game Thoughts: There was much fanfare when the Eagles
brought in LeGarrette Blount this offseason, but the entire backfield
situation is a complete disaster so far this season. While it
technically became less crowded when Darren Sproles broke his
arm and tore his ACL, things really aren’t much better without
Sproles than it was prior to his injury. Blount and Wendell Smallwood
are both below-average receivers but are splitting carries in
a pass-first offense. Smallwood appears to have taken over as
the team’s top option in the backfield, but he’ll
still only likely see two-thirds of the carries out of the backfield
at most. Blount’s role remains primarily as a short-yardage
back which means he can produce those multiple-touchdown performances
and provide his owners with some big weeks, but he’s extremely
difficult to rely on as he has one of the lowest floors of any
possible fantasy starter in the league.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The start of the 2017 season hasn’t
been great for the Chargers or quarterback Philip Rivers. Rivers
threw three interceptions this past week in a loss to the Chiefs
and failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time since
Week 3 of the 2016 season. What’s even more shocking is
that the game could’ve been even worse. In Week 4, however,
he’ll get a Philadelphia defense that hasn’t been
quite as strong.
This looks like a must-succeed game for Tyrell Williams who has
been disappointing thus far and is beginning to lose attention
to Travis Benjamin. If he can’t produce something of value
this week, it might be time to move on. Fellow receiver Keenan
Allen has firmly reestablished himself as the Chargers’
top pass catcher and is a very strong play this week in all formats.
Hunter Henry and Antonio Gates continue to be in a 50-50 share
at tight end, but Henry has failed to see a target in two of the
team’s first three games. Gates is a low-end TE1 at best
while Henry can likely be let go in non-keeper formats.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: Running back Melvin Gordon continues to
produce RB1 numbers in his third season and his workload has made
him one of the most trustworthy week-to-week plays in seasonal
formats. Gordon has scored a total of 15 touchdowns over his past
16 games and no player is pushing him for carries as long as he’s
healthy. Unfortunately, health has indeed been a problem and he’s
beginning to feel soreness in the same knee he’s had problems
with in the past. While the coaching staff insists that his limited
participation in practice is solely for precautionary reasons
and that he’ll be ready to suit up against the Eagles, owners
of Gordon might want to consider picking up Branden Oliver in
deeper formats where they can spare a bench spot. Oliver doesn’t
offer nearly the upside that Gordon does but he would seem to
be the next in line for carries should Gordon be unable to play
against this Eagles defense that Kareem Hunt exploited back in
Week 2.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The 49ers finally put some points on the
board in Week 2 and while they fell short in a divisional matchup
against the Rams, there was at least some reason to believe that
they’ll be improved going forward. For Week 4, however,
wide receiver Pierre Garcon is one of the more interesting “sits”
of the week in most leagues which is unfortunate because he’s
coming off of such a nice game in Week 3. He’ll likely be
shadow-covered by Patrick Peterson who has only been targeted
against three times so far this season, including none while covering
Dez Bryant this past week. Garcon does move around the field a
lot, including going into the slot, but the Cardinals have used
Peterson in slot coverage to shadow Bryant and T.Y. Hilton already
in 2017. While the coverage from Peterson might benefit other
players in the San Francisco offense, it’d be extremely
difficult to predict who is likely to see an increased target
share, so avoiding this whole situation seems like a wise decision.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: Carlos Hyde’s usage makes him a viable
RB2 this week but this is a tough matchup. While Ezekiel Elliott
did get into the end zone against the Cardinals week ago, he was
only able to muster 80 yards on 22 carries – fewer than
four yards per carry. The 49ers will almost certainly need to
lean heavily on Hyde in order to have a chance in this game, but
there’s also a real chance that he’ll be held in check.
In fact, Hyde rushed for just 14 yards on 13 carries the most
recent time these teams played in Week 10 of the 2016 season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Week 3 started off strong for the Cardinals
as they marched right down the field and scored on the Cowboys,
but the game fell apart from that point on. The biggest worry
for the Arizona offense right now is their offensive line, particularly
in pass protection. They were absolutely abused by a below-average
Cowboys defensive line this past week and San Francisco’s
defensive line is probably better across the board. Palmer will
likely be looking to get the ball out quickly, which could bode
well for another potentially high-usage game for Larry Fitzgerald.
Fitz has twice as many receptions and twice as many targets as
any player in the Arizona offense, but there are rumors that John
Brown could finally be able to get back on the field in this game.
If he does, look for the team to try to get him the ball more
often than they’ve been looking to J.J. Nelson or Jaron
Brown. In fact, John Brown’s return to the offense could
essentially mean that both Jaron and Nelson move into fantasy
irrelevance. Either way, every other player in this Arizona passing
game is extremely unreliable and should not be trusted for fantasy
purposes unless Fitzgerald misses time as the season goes on.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Running Game Thoughts: Chris Johnson appears to have taken the
starting job from Kerwynn Williams, but what does that really
mean at this point? None of the backs in this offense have been
particularly effective and Andre Ellington still being used in
the passing game really limits Johnson’s upside. San Francisco’s
defense has been very exploitable, however, so Johnson does have
some potential as a Flex option, particularly in non-PPR formats.
The Cardinals offensive line is quite bad, however, so don’t
expect a huge explosion for any of the players in this backfield
even in what should be a good matchup against a bad San Francisco
defense.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After a strong start to the season, Raiders
quarterback Derek Carr finally had a bad game – and it was
a truly bad one – against the Redskins in Week 3. Carr was
held to just 118 yards passing and one touchdown with two interceptions
in an ugly loss. This obviously led to receivers Amari Cooper
and Michael Crabtree both having terrible performances. This passing
game, and particularly receivers Cooper and Crabtree could be
in for a very tough matchup again this week. With the Seahawks
struggling, the Broncos might be the best overall defense in the
league. One of the biggest reasons why the Raiders passing attack
struggled in Week 3 is that their offensive line took a huge step
back. We have to expect that the line will get back on track but
a game against the Broncos and Von Miller is not going to be the
game they start looking elite again.
It’s hard to bench Cooper and Crabtree given their upside,
but neither player is better than a low-end WR2 in this extremely
difficult matchup. Carr himself is not worthy of being in fantasy
lineups other than as a low-end QB2. The one player who is a bit
intriguing in this matchup is tight end Jared Cook. With Crabtree
and Cooper being shutdown against the Redskins, it was Cook who
saw an uptick in usage, particularly in the red zone where he
caught Carr’s only touchdown pass of the day. That could
play out again this week as the Broncos have given up touchdowns
and overall big games in back-to-back weeks to opposing tight
ends.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: While he’s still getting roughly
60 percent of his team’s carries, Marshawn Lynch has not
yet proven to be the true workhorse back that many expected him
to be coming into the season. Not only that, but aside from a
short-yardage touchdown against the Jets in Week 2, Lynch hasn’t
been particularly effective with the opportunities he’s
been given. Coming into a matchup against a Broncos run defense
that has already shut down Melvin Gordon, Ezekiel Elliott and
LeSean McCoy – three consensus top 10 running backs –
there is certainly reason to be concerned about the fantasy outlook
for Lynch here in Week 4. Lynch is a bit better in non-PPR formats
but he’s still only a low-end RB2 in this matchup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The larger, more physical, less agile corners
in Oakland should have an easier time keeping up with Demaryius
Thomas than Emmanuel Sanders in this Week 4 matchup. Neither receiver
was particularly effective in their two matchups against the Raiders
a season ago, but the Oakland defense seems to be taking a step
back this season. They’ve given up the fourth-most fantasy
points to opposing quarterbacks and they’ve conceded at
least 10 receptions to opposing wide receivers in each game thus
far. This is a game where you could stream Trevor Siemian as a
QB1, replacing struggling quarterbacks like Derek Carr, Cam Newton
and Eli Manning.
OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Running Game Thoughts: C.J. Anderson’s Week 2 breakout reminded
us of the player who broke out during the Broncos’ Super
Bowl run a few seasons back, but his lack of usage and overall
ineffectiveness in Week 3 reminded us quickly that he is not a
set-and-forget fantasy starter. Game script forced the Broncos
to pass much more against the Bills than they wanted to, but the
concern is that Anderson was not utilized in the passing game.
He caught just two passes for seven yards and has not caught more
than three passes in any game yet this season. Jamaal Charles
is also beginning to work himself into more of a timeshare which
could help his value should Anderson go down, but the split backfield
makes it risky to use either player in fantasy. Anderson certainly
remains the player that you want to own and potentially start
in this backfield.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jacoby Brissett has been better than almost
anyone could’ve expected but he has still only thrown one
touchdown pass in two games. He did rush for two scores against
the Browns, but the speedy linebackers in Seattle should be able
to contain that a bit better. T.Y. Hilton will not be shadowed
by Richard Sherman which should give him an opportunity to pick
up where he left off in Week 3 when he caught seven of his nine
targets for 153 yards and his first score of the season. Don’t
expect a replication of those numbers, but he’s still very
clearly the top option in this passing game and should see a healthy
share of targets especially if the Colts fall behind on the scoreboard.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Running Game Thoughts: After being an elite unit for years, the
Seahawks defense has been surprisingly bad against the run so
far this season. It started in Week 2 when Carlos Hyde ripped
off a long run against them and it continued in Week 3 when both
DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry had long runs. If you can look
past those runs, though, the Seahawks defense is still who they
have been for the past few seasons: one of the best units in the
league. Don’t fall for the trap of thinking Frank Gore is
a great play in what appears to be a good matchup based on the
aggregate numbers. Gore is still a decent runner but his days
of long touchdown runs are in the past.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Seattle finally got things going in their
passing game this past week, but it was too little, too late as
they fell to the Titans. Wilson showed the type of playmaking
ability that we’re used to seeing from him, though, as he
threw for a whopping 379 yards and four touchdowns. Wilson has
also been more active as a runner, making him a fairly safe option
going forward. Unfortunately the same cannot be said about wide
receiver Doug Baldwin who also had his first big performance of
the season in Week 3, but suffered a groin injury in the contest.
He has missed practice time during the week and his status for
Sunday’s contest is up in the air. Even if he does play,
there’s some reason to be concerned that the team will opt
to shut him down for the day should the Seahawks get out to a
lead at home against the Colts who are one of the worst teams
in the league. That could limit his upside pretty significantly,
making him a WR2 this week as opposed to a WR1 if he were fully
healthy.
If Baldwin is limited or out, look for Paul Richardson to step
up and take a larger share of the team’s targets. Richardson
has been very touchdown-dependent so far this season but he’s
scored in each of his past two games so there’s hope that
he could make it three in a row in what figures to be a good matchup.
Tight end Jimmy Graham is also a must-start this week. While he
struggled in the Seahawks’ first two games of the season,
Graham remains one of the most physically gifted pass catchers
to ever play the position and the team does look his way quite
often when they get down in the red zone.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: On paper, this looks like the possible
Chris Carson breakout game that many have been looking forward
to. Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls are barely seeing the field and
C.J. Prosise is unlikely to play after suffering another injury
so Carson could be in line for 20-plus touches in this game against
a bad Indianapolis team. If the game does end up getting out of
control, this could even be a 25-plus touch game for Carson, which
would almost certainly translate into a top-12 performance for
him in fantasy. The opportunity and situation are ideal for fantasy
production so he’s a high-end RB2 heading into this game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Redskins finally got the first “big
game” out of the season from their quarterback Kirk Cousins,
but things just have not been working out for their offseason
acquisition, wide receiver Terrelle Pryor. Through three games,
Pryor has made just 10 receptions for 116 yards and no touchdowns.
This week he’ll probably see some attention from cornerback
Marcus Peters, but it is not believed that this will be a “shadow”
situation as Peters typically plays one side of the field, which
happens to be the opposite side from where Pryor typically lines
up.With Jamison Crowder typically lining up in the slot, that
could mean that Ryan Grant, who caught three of his four targets
this past week, will likely be lined up quite a bit against Peters.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Crowder is also a concern at the moment as he had his biggest
game of the season this past week but it was only six receptions
for 62 yards and no score. The Kansas City defense has avoided
allowing a single passing touchdown in two of their three games
so far this season, and those games were against Philip Rivers
and Tom Brady. While Kirk Cousins is a decent quarterback who
typically has a high volume, he’s also a risk taker who
is capable of throwing multiple interceptions in games, so he’s
a risky play in this contest. Tight end Jordan Reed is expected
to play on Monday but fantasy owners need to take the proper precautions
to make sure that they’re not left with a zero on their
bench if Reed does end up sitting. Vernon Davis continues to be
an excellent streaming option in games where Reed is out and he’s
still available in most formats. Pick him up if you own Reed so
you can make an informed decision prior to Monday night’s
game.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Running Game Thoughts: Samaje Perine fell short of some fantasy
experts’ lofty predictions by rushing for just 49 yards
on 19 carries this past week in his first game without Rob Kelley.
Kelley is practicing again this week and is expected to play,
which really limits the upside that either player has as long
as they’re both touching the ball. Chris Thompson is now
owned in almost all leagues after another big performance in Week
3. He looks like the clear cut most talented and explosive back
in this offense, but the team seems to be worried about giving
him a full workload. Thompson continues to be one of the better
pass catching backs who actually has the ability to produce big
plays and get into the end zone, so feel free to continue to deploy
him as an RB2 in PPR formats.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Through three games, Alex Smith has already
thrown for seven touchdown passes while throwing zero interceptions.
He’s also been using his legs more this season than he did
in 2016, which is a good sign for his overall value as a fantasy
quarterback but especially for increasing his point floor. Tyreek
Hill continues to be the clear cut WR1 in this offense and has
caught 16 passes through three games for 253 yards and a pair
of scores. While it might seem like he’ll see a lot of coverage
from Josh Norman, the reality is that he might actually be lined
up against Bashaud Breeland more, as Norman has not been shadowing
opposing WR1’s. The Chiefs have no problem moving Hill into
the place on the field that he’ll do the most damage in,
whether that’s the right side, left side, slot or even running
the ball.
Fantasy owners who are panicking over Travis Kelce’s stumble
in Week 3 where he caught just one pass for one yard should relax.
Kelce plays a position where there’s a ton of volatility,
especially depending on what the opposing defense is doing. The
Chargers clearly came in with the intention of shutting down Kelce,
which they did, but that left huge running lanes open and deep
passing routes poorly guarded. Kelce remains a rock solid TE1
option and needs to be started in all season-long formats.
Running Game Thoughts: Kareem Hunt continues to make a strong
case to be the 2017 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year as he still
leads all players in fantasy scoring after three weeks. Hunt has
scored in every game he’s played in so far this season and
it’s not just his explosion on long runs, but also his ability
to shrug off defenders and force missed tackles that has made
him into an instant fantasy star. While Alex Smith is enjoying
one of the best stretches of his career, the Chiefs offense seemingly
revolves around Hunt and there’s no reason to think that’s
going to change anytime soon. Another 18-to-20 touch game seems
very likely in this contest, which again makes him one of the
premier options in all of fantasy football.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Drew Brees’ road struggles are well
documented and this game is really far from home, but he was every
bit a QB1 at Carolina last week, albeit without the passing volume,
throwing for 220 yards and three touchdowns. This week, he heads
to London to face a Dolphins team that just got embarrassed by
the Jets. Michael Thomas scored his first touchdown of the season
en route to a solid 7-87-1 performance. With the exception of
Robby Anderson’s long touchdown, the Jets mostly ate up
the Dolphins underneath which is the area Thomas excels. While
I still do not believe Thomas is a true number one wide receiver,
he is currently the top target for Brees and this is a favorable
matchup.
The return of Fast Willie Snead from his three-game suspension
helps Brees and this offense as a whole, although it’s unclear
how significant Snead’s Week 4 role will be. Regardless,
Thomas’ volume is not in jeopardy. As for Snead himself,
he was running behind Ted Ginn Jr in two-receiver sets so if you
can afford to keep Snead on your bench for a week, it’s
probably a good idea. Ginn is what he is – a boom or bust
WR3. You hope he scores like he did last week. Brandon Coleman
scored a touchdown for the second consecutive game, but that was
his only reception. He falls to fourth in the pecking order with
Snead’s return and therefore is not a fantasy option.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Running Game Thoughts: In half PPR, Mark Ingram has scored exactly
9.6 fantasy points in each of his first three games. That’s
hard to do. His fantasy owners surely wish he could improve, but
Sean Payton is making it quite difficult with his insistence upon
putting Adrian Peterson on the field. AP is old and has overcome
too many injuries. It’s over. The sooner Payton accepts
this, the sooner we can get to an Ingram-Alvin Kamara split backfield
that benefits everyone, including the Saints. Peterson’s
entire season thus far hasn’t even been a good game for
vintage AP (23-77-0) while Kamara is averaging 5.8 ypc and Ingram
4.5 ypc. Ingram’s 14 carries last week matched his total
from the first two weeks combined. He is an RB3 at his current
volume, as is Kamara, who busted off a 25-yard touchdown run against
the Panthers. Kamara is averaging 4.5 touches over his last two
games.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler still does not care about football.
Winning or losing, it’s all the same to him. But even Cutler’s
apathy is not immune to benefiting from the generosity of the
Saints defense. Cam Newton couldn’t do much against the
Saints, but that’s because Newton is having a terrible start
to the season. Cutler has been surprisingly consistent, averaged
225 yards and a touchdown over his first two games. The Saints
have gotten torched by Sam Bradford and Tom Brady and while both
are better than Cutler, he should have no trouble lighting up
this secondary across the pond.
This is a great spot for Jarvis Landry to have one of his vintage
double-digit reception/double-digit yardage games and could actually
score in this one. Landry has caught 19 balls over his first two
games and looks well on his way to a 100-catch season. DeVante
Parker found the end zone last week and while he hasn’t
been targeted as much as Landry, he’s Cutler’s primary
red zone option. Parker has blow up potential in Week 4, but he
is still not an appealing long-term prospect. I just don’t
believe the talent is there. He is a strong play this week, though.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: Jay Ajayi faceplanted along with most
the Dolphins offense against the Jets last week. Ajayi spent last
week on the injury report with a knee issue that was reportedly
minor. While I don’t think Ajayi is at any risk of missing
this week’s game, the fact that he only saw 11 carries against
the Jets is disconcerting, to say the least. The fact that he
turned those 11 carries into just 16 yards is troublesome. We
can chalk it up to a bad all around game for the Dolphins, but
this is a reminder that Ajayi is not a reliable RB1. When things
are going well, he looks as good as anyone, but this is what his
floor looks like. Expect Ajayi to be heavily involved in the passing
game as well after the Saints just coughed up 100 receiving yards
to Christian McCaffrey last week. As long as Ajayi is healthy,
it’s all systems go against the Saints.
Passing
Game Thoughts: If I told you one of the QBs in this game
was done, wouldn’t you immediately think it would be the
40 year-old? You’d be mistaken. Cam Newton, at the ripe
old age of 28, is done. He was never actually a good passer, but
posted elite rushing numbers for a quarterback. Those days are
gone along with Newton’s fantasy value. When you only post
eight fantasy points against the Saints, you know it’s over.
Newton threw for just 167 yards last week and added three interceptions.
Kelvin Benjamin caught both of his targets for eight yards before
departing with a knee injury. Tests showed nothing serious, but
he remains questionable to suit up. If Benjamin can’t go,
Devin Funchess will see a boatload of targets by default. He only
caught four if his ten targets, but that’s just as much
of an indictment on Newton than it is on Funchess. The Patriots
defense just got ripped apart by Deshaun Watson in a game they
probably should have lost. The Panthers will have to throw in
this one, but if Benjamin doesn’t play, there’s not
a single member of this passing attack that is appealing for fantasy.
Recent reports are promising, however, so fantasy owners should
feel safe inserting Benjamin into lineups.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Running Game Thoughts: Jonathan Stewart dominated carries last
week with 12, but the story was Christian McCaffrey. The Panthers
finally unlocked McCaffrey’s talent by utilizing him as
the pseudo-WR that he is. CMac caught nine of his 11 targets for
101 yards. He’s not going to score many touchdowns, but
his PPR floor is relatively high. McCaffrey could be featured
even more this week if Benjamin is out. Stewart, on the other
hand, is what he is. He will touch the ball 12-15 times and be
useless if he doesn’t score a touchdown.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After losing Week 1 to the Chiefs, Tom Brady
decided he had enough of the whole running the ball thing. The
Patriots threw the ball 35 times last week against just 19 runs.
Brady threw for 378 yards and five touchdowns. Rob Gronkowski
led the team in targets and is a lock to finish as the overall
TE1 if he stays healthy. Chris Hogan was not hampered by Danny
Amendola’s return as he went off for 68 yards and two scores.
But the man I’d like to formally welcome to the Patriots
is Brandin Cooks. Finally, we got that blow up game we all knew
Cooks was capable of. Cooks caught five of his seven targets for
131 yards and two touchdowns, and it could’ve been even
better. Brady and Cooks are still not fully in sync, but it’s
getting there. Cooks is going to win a few weeks for fantasy owners
by himself. The Panthers defense is in rapid decline and they
just got shredded at home by the Saints. Now they’re on
the road facing Tom Brady. Unleash all of your Patriots.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: Nope. Move along. No running game to see
here. Mike Gillislee didn’t score a touchdown so he was
completely useless last week. As I’ve stated before, you
knew what you were getting into with Gillislee so this should
come as no surprise. James White had a surprisingly poor game,
only catching one pass. It goes without saying that he will be
better going forward. Dion Lewis played a few more snaps with
Rex Burkhead out, but was nowhere near a fantasy factor. Gillislee’s
odds of scoring remain unchanged so deploy him as usual against
the Panthers. White will likely have a better performance as well
so I would not overreact to one bad game. Burkhead’s expected
absence for a second week in a row only serves to help the other
backs see more snaps.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Blake Bortles played what might’ve
been the best game of his career in a systematic destruction of
the Ravens previously elite defense. He completed 20-of-31 throws
for 244 yards and four touchdowns. It was his first game with
more than two touchdown passes since the second to last game of
2015. More impressively is the fact that Bortles didn’t
turn the ball over. It’s hard to say how much the Ravens
were truly negatively impacted by the trip to London. John Harbaugh
has no so subtly suggested the answer is “a lot.”
Regardless, Bortles played well and now he has a road matchup
against the Jets, who are supposed to be terrible, but basically
shut out the Dolphins last week. One game does not make Bortles
a viable fantasy option, even against the Jets. His wide receivers
are also not reliable fantasy options. Allen Hurns and Marqise
Lee are the starters with Lee being a low-ceiling PPR option.
Hurns is a touchdown or bust option. Marcedes Lewis re-entered
our lives with three touchdowns last week, but I can’t imagine
that happening ever again. His Week 3 performacne feels very fluky.
This is still a passing game to be avoided.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: The running game, however, should be welcomed
with open arms. Leonard Fournette is a true workhorse. Fournette
is averaging 19 carries and a couple receptions per game. He has
rushed for exactly one touchdown in each of his first three contests.
He sees all the early down work and all the goal line work with
Chris Ivory filling a supporting role. The Jets shut down Jay
Ajayi last week, but I would not look too much into that when
assessing Fournette. Fournette is going to touch the ball at lest
20 times and looks every bit like an RB1. The Jaguars’ elite
defense should dominate this game, thus creating a ton of positive
game script. Corey Grant’s 75 yards last week had more to
do with him playing late because the score was so crooked. He
is no threat to Fournette’s workload.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Josh McCown only threw five incompletions
last week and he hasn’t turned the ball over in his last
two games but he’s also only thrown 47 passes in those two
contests. Robby Anderson caught a bomb from McCown for a touchdown
that led to his 95-yard day, but otherwise, it was the status
quo for Jets WRs – no one is particularly useful. Jermaine
Kearse came back down to earth, only seeing three targets as McCown
spread the ball around very evenly between Anderson, Kearse, Jeremy
Kerley, and TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Let’s talk ASJ for
a moment. There were concerns that he was out of shape and may
not be active. ASJ played and looked just fine. He is the primary
TE for the Jets and given the state of the position in fantasy,
could be a viable back end option. He should see six to eight
targets and could be inundated with checkdowns this week as McCown
seeks to avoid throwing at Jalen Ramsey or A.J. Bouye. The Jaguars
are one of the league’s best defenses with one of the league’s
best corner duos so no wide receiver is startable here.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Running Game Thoughts: At least one-third of this annoying three-way
timeshare is going away. Matt Forte suffered a toe injury last
week and looks unlikely to play Sunday. This could be the opportunity
Bilal Powell has been waiting for. We’ve all seen how effective
he can be in a featured role. He still won’t have that with
Elijah McGuire around, but a 60-40 split in Powell’s favor
would do wonders for a guy that was on the precipice of being
dropped. He only played 28 out of 63 snaps last week, which is
far too few to be fantasy viable, but he did score his first touchdown
of the season after Forte went down. In limited work, Powell is
averaging just 2.6 ypc and he’s not catching many passes
(no catches his last two games). The Jaguars have been vulnerable
on the ground, currently allowing the fifth most yards per game.
I’d still hesitate to deploy any Jets in this matchup, but
if anyone has a shot to produce, it’s Powell.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Very often, coaches get too much credit
and too much blame for the performance of players. The impact
of coaching is overstated. However, that’s not to say the
coach does not matter at all. The difference between the 2017
version of Jared Goff and the 2016 version is the embodiment of
that difference. In an offense built for the 1950s, worst coach
in NFL history Jeff Fisher did everything in his power to prevent
his players from succeeding. Young buck Sean McVay is unlocking
the talent of everyone on this roster that Fisher mishandled.
Goff had the best game of his career last week with 292 yards
and three touchdowns. He looks like a new player. He’s playing
with more confidence and that has made all the difference for
a guy we knew had the physical tools. Sammy Watkins finally got
going as well with an almost identical line to Robert Woods. Both
caught six of their seven targets. Woods had 108 yards. Watkins
had 106 yards. Watkins was the one who scored though, finding
the end zone twice. Last week’s game was unusually fast
paced and high scoring, especially given the two teams involved.
Do not overreact to the offensive explosion and expect Goff, Watkins,
and Woods to do that again. Nevertheless, the Cowboys have a beatable
secondary that allowed Larry Fitzgerald to channel his inner 2008
and Carson Palmer to not look 57 years old. Goff is definitely
a streamable option in a game where the Rams should score points.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Running Game Thoughts: Todd Gurley still does not look like the
elite talent we saw in 2015. But for fantasy purposes, make no
mistake, he’s an elite RB1. As it has forever been in fantasy,
opportunity trumps talent. Gurley certainly has talent, but that
doesn’t matter if the opportunity isn’t there. This
year, it’s there in spades. Gurley touched the ball 33 times
last week. He’s now amassed 76 touches across his first
three games. Most promising is his intentional involvement in
the passing game, having reception counts of five, three, and
five. Gurley’s volume floor is incredibly high and Denver
has already shown Dallas can be beaten on the ground. Gurley is
scoring touchdowns at an unsustainable rate, but he doesn’t
need to score to be productive. The touchdowns are a bonus. The
matchup is not a concern and based on his usage, Gurley is match-up
proof anyway.
Passing
Game Thoughts: You know how sometimes you see a player
and you go, “he has ‘it,’” but you can’t
really articulate or illustrate what “it” is? Dak
Prescott’s touchdown to Brice Butler last week is the closest
you will get to a tangible version of “it.” Prescott
is the QB8 through three weeks and his schedule only gets easier.
The only concern for Prescott this week is how many of his touchdowns
are stolen by Ezekiel Elliott. Jason Witten is still the most
reliable Cowboys pass catcher. He’s old and slow, but he’s
still really smart and knows how to find the holes in coverage.
He will be Prescott’s safety blanket as Cole Beasley continues
to be an afterthought in this offense.
As for Dez Bryant, he is not an elite WR anymore and hasn’t
been since 2014. He has just 11 catches in three games and hasn’t
topped 100 yards receiving since Week 9 last year. He is still
a red zone force and will probably finish the season with double-digit
touchdowns if he stays healthy, but the WR1 days are over. Bryant
only saw two targets last week and even when he saw 16 the previous
week, he only caught seven of them, the majority of which came
in garbage time. The Rams are a plus matchup for the Cowboys passing
game, but it will be difficult to trust Bryant as a WR1/2.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Running Game Thoughts: Ezekiel Elliott bounced back from the
worst game of his career to post 80 yards and a score on the Cardinals.
He struggled mightily early on, but got rolling in the second
half. He has a very good chance of meeting or exceeding Carlos
Hyde’s production against the Rams last week (25-84-2).
This week begins a four-game stretch of favorable matchups for
Elliott. The Rams have allowed the second most rushing yards on
the season meaning Zeke should be in line for his first big game
of 2017.
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