Edwards averaged over 4.1 yards per carry and rushed for two
touchdowns last week in his first action of the season. With a
week under his belt, a stranglehold on the job thanks to J.K.
Dobbins’ injury, and the Ravens seemingly re-focused on establishing
the run, I think we could see more of Edwards on a short week.
The Bucs have been yielding almost 4.5 yards per carry and 21
points per game, so I think you’ll also see Lamar Jackson and
Devin Duvernay involved in the run game, but Edwards is the RB1
in a run-first attack.
Lamar has turned in some poor passing numbers of late. He hasn’t
thrown for 300 yards in a game since Week 2 and hasn’t thrown
multiple touchdowns since Week 3. His rushing numbers have kept
him viable, but unless he’s already your starter, he might
not be in play until he starts finding the end zone on a regular
basis. Against a Bucs defense that is among the best in the NFL
in sacks and interceptions, look for Jackson to be on the move
with his legs.
Normally after an 0-fer week, I’d expect a player of Andrews’
stature to pop on the rebound. But Andrews is playing through
a painful knee injury and hardly practicing, and despite being
Lamar Jackson’s go-to guy in the passing game, playing on
a short week makes it hard for me to believe that he’s going
to be a primary focus of the game plan against Tampa. Stranger
things have happened, but I would expect a run-heavy attack this
week.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
We’ve all heard the narrative – Brady hasn’t
been Brady this year. But even with just one TD pass in two frustrating
losses over the last two weeks, he’s completing nearly 65%
of his passes in that span, almost eclipsed 300 passing yards
last week for the first time in a month, and is averaging almost
50 pass attempts a game over the last four. Godwin and Evans are
playing and the Ravens are allowing 25 fantasy points per game
to QB’s (4th worst in the NFL). It’s a bounce back
week for Brady.
Bottom line – Lenny is getting tired. Last week was a tough
one (8-19 rushing), but truth be told, he’s only averaged
4.0 yards per carry or more in two games this season, and he has
just one rushing touchdown on the year. He’s got some value
as a receiver, but Rachaad White keeps cutting in on his touches.
Brady is salivating at the site of this Ravens defense this week.
It’s going to be pass-heavy on offense and Fournette is
no more than an RB2.
Otton caught four balls for 64 yards in place of the injured
Cameron Brate last week, and teams have been throwing the ball
all over the yard against this Ravens secondary. But he’s
still the third receiving option in Tampa at best, and no TE not
named Gronkowski has been able to maintain any sort of consistent
role in this offense with Brady at the helm. Some prognosticators
have him as a strong streaming option, but I’m not sure.
There hasn’t been much to like about this offense, with
or without Wilson. But after a week off, I expect Wilson to be
back near QB1 form. Let’s face it, he’s not flying
all the way to London to hand the ball off or dump it to the TE.
Look for a dynamic passing game and a bump for all the Broncos
receivers.
The rookie 3rd round pick is getting some TE1 buzz this week after
a strong showing last week with Brett Rypien at QB. But let’s
pump the brakes. He’s only played in two games! With Russell Wilson
back under center this week, I’m not sure Dulcich is as big a
factor in this attack.
Over the last month, Gordon’s workload has been inconsistent,
and he hasn’t averaged 4.0 yards per carry in a game since Week
2. With Latavius Murray cutting in on his touches and getting
most of the goal line work, Gordon is barely a RB3 consideration.
Throw in the fact that Jacksonville’s defense is ranked 4th in
the NFL against the run, and Gordon can be left on the fantasy
bench.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Etienne is on a tear, averaging an incredible 8.1 yards on 34
carries over the last three games, while also catching six balls
on 12 targets. With James Robinson now off to the Jets, Etienne
is the alpha in the backfield. QB Trevor Lawrence’s struggles
will only mean good things for Etienne’s fantasy production as
well.
Before last week’s breakout against the Giants, Kirk had
posted three straight games of single-digit fantasy points. If
this game turns into a shootout, he has a chance at another pretty
good day, but QB Trevor Lawrence’s accuracy issues are going
to keep a lid on Kirk’s ceiling. On the negative side, Patrick
Surtain has put a lock down on No.1 wide receivers and the Broncos
have given up just 1 TD to a wide receiver this season.
It wouldn’t be unreasonable to call Lawrence’s 300-yard
day against the Giants a turning of the corner. But what I saw
was a QB still struggling with accuracy and inconsistent delivery
of the ball. He averaged just 7.2 yards per attempt and has only
thrown one touchdown pass in the last three games. He does have
three rushing TD’s in the last two games, but those will
be hard to come by against a very solid Broncos defense
Ertz is coming off his worst game of the season, catching just
two passes for 21 yards against the Saints -- he had two grabs
for 14 yards in Week 1 but one of those was a TD. Don’t overreact.
Ertz averaged 57 yards over his previous five outings and had
at least six receptions in each of those games. The Vikings have
had their issues defending the tight end position in 2022, including
their last game when Mike Gesicki posted a 6-69-2 line and hit
arguably the world’s worst griddy. For reference, the Dolphins
TE has 12 receptions combined in his other six games this year.
Start Ertz as a strong TE1.
Critically, Benjamin’s value hinges on the health of James
Conner (ribs), who has missed the past two games with a rib injury.
If he’s back, even at a reduced percentage, he’ll
eat into Benjamin’s snaps. The Arizona State product isn’t
a workhorse at the best of times, logging 34 combined touches
in Conner’s absence, meaning he’ll need to make the
most of his chances like he did in Week 7 (113 yards and a TD).
If Conner sits, you can pencil Benjamin in as a flex/low-end RB3.
In Hopkins’ return, he was targeted 14 times. In comparison,
Moore (2) and Anderson (1) were targeted on three passes. That’s
not a huge surprise for Anderson, who was acquired just days before
the Thursday night affair, but it’s not encouraging for
Moore, who had 13 receptions combined in the previous two games.
Assuming that Hopkins and Ertz will be Murray’s top targets,
Moore is left as a fringe flex option, and Anderson should not
be in lineups.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
With the Cardinals featuring a bottom-10 pass defense, allowing
258.6 yards per game and applying limited pressure (11 sacks;
T-27th), there is hope that Cousins can put together a big game
in Week 8. We haven’t seen it yet from the veteran this
season, though, with Cousins averaging a pedestrian 250 yards
and 1.5 TDs per game. Then again, given the sad state of the quarterback
position for fantasy purposes this year, Cousins’ potential
here makes him a borderline top-10 play.
Back in the saddle after missing two games due to a concussion,
which you may or may not have heard something about, Tagovailoa
started hot but petered out last Sunday night in a 16-10 win over
the Steelers. For the game, the southpaw threw for 261 yards and
a touchdown. Perhaps that served to get the rust off -- he referenced
getting back up to game speed in post-game comments -- and a game
with the Lions, which are ranked last in scoring defense, will
get him fully back on track. Even though Tagovailoa has only had
one big game this season, his selection of weapons combined with
a plus matchup give him midrange QB1 appeal here.
Despite getting the bigger contract in the offseason, Edmonds
has fallen well behind Mostert in the backfield pecking order.
In fact, he’s played fewer than 20 snaps in four of the
last five games. So why can’t he be summarily written off?
Miami is facing the Lions, which have allowed 32.3 points per
game (last) this season and 162.8 yards per game on the ground
(31st). If there ever was a week where you could roll the dice
on Edmonds as a flex with some potential, this is it.
Fade: N/A
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Given how shaky the tight end position has been this season,
Hockenson is close to a no-brainer. His production hasn’t borne
that out, however, as he’s only topped 50 yards in a game once
this season, and he’s finished below 30 in three of the last five.
With D.J. Chark (ankle) on IR, and St. Brown’s status up in the
air, Hockenson and Josh Reynolds could end up as the top two options
in the passing game. With Miami ranking 24th in pass defense,
Hockenson looks like a midrange TE1.
With Swift having missed the last three games due to injury, Williams
has stepped in as the primary back. Following a strong start,
he has tailed off the past two games, running for 135 yards, catching
one pass, scoring no TDs, and losing a critical fumble. If Swift
can return in Week 8, Williams’ role might shrink more than you
might expect. Of course, if Swift misses a fourth straight, Williams
will continue to serve as the top back. He’s a strong RB3 if Swift
is out or a middling flex if Swift is up.
Goff opened the 2022 season by throwing for 11 TDs in his first
four games. In the two games since, the Lions have scored six
points combined with Goff turning the ball over six times. It’s
been a brutal performance by any standard, and although some of
the team’s struggles can be blamed on injuries to key playmakers,
it’s far from clear he’ll be getting them back in
Week 8. Keep Goff away from your lineup this Sunday.
We’ve all had our fun at the expense of Justin Fields and
the Bears this season, but it’s time that we give the second-year
quarterback some credit as he’s now been a QB1 in three
straight weeks. Fields’ passing numbers continue to be near
the league’s worst, but he’s now exceeded 80 rushing
yards in back-to-back games which has allowed him to produce where
we care most - on the fantasy scoreboard. With Fields at full
strength and the Bears seemingly giving him the green light to
take off and run, there’s no reason to think that he won’t
continue deliver for fantasy managers, even in tougher matchups
like the one he faces this week against the Cowboys. He’s
still available in far too many leagues and he’s an excellent
bye week replacement.
We saw an interesting trend this past week when Khalil Herbert
nearly matched Montgomery in touches while also finishing just
11 snaps behind him for the game. Herbert has admittedly been
the more effective back on a per-touch basis and we may be inching
closer to a 50/50 backfield split. However, the game script this
past week was not like any other game the Bears have played in,
as they not only won, but did so in dominant fashion. The game
script allowed the Bears to take their foot off the gas pedal
offensively and it likely also contributed to Herbert seeing an
uptick in touches. We’ll likely be reanalyzing this backfield
toward the end of the season, but for now, trust that Montgomery
is going to remain the team’s top back. It’s a tough matchup against
a Dallas defense that has given up the fewest points per game
to opposing running backs so far this season, but he should see
enough volume to at least give fantasy managers some value this
week.
As stated above, Herbert has been out-playing Montgomery so far
this season, but as long as the coaches don’t see it that
way, there’s not much we can do as fantasy managers. He’ll
likely need a long run to give us any return against the Cowboys
and that’s just way too risky to bank on when a player is
the “B” side in a committee backfield. Hold on to
Herbert and understand that better days are ahead, but this is
a week where you’ll want him on your bench.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
With Ezekiel Elliott (knee) seemingly trending toward not playing
this week, we may finally be getting an opportunity to see Tony
Pollard in lead back role this season. Pollard has been electric
this season, averaging 5.6 yards per carry on the ground while
also contributing nearly 10 yards per reception. A 20-touch game
for him is not unlikely if Elliott plays and that makes him an
extremely strong play against a Bears defense that ranks in the
top 10 in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing running
backs.
Dak Prescott’s return to the lineup had us salivating about
the Cowboys’ potential to have a huge offensive explosion
against the Lions in Week 7, but it turned out to be less than
we expected. Dallas still scored 24 and won the game easily so
it’s tough to really blame the offense too much, but Prescott
barely averaged 10 yards per completion in the contest and he
threw for just one touchdown while also not contributing anything
on the ground. This week he faces a Bears defense that ranks eighth-best
in containing opposing quarterbacks. It’s probably tough
to bench him for most teams, but this is not a great matchup and
the Cowboys offense just doesn’t appear to be firing on
all cylinders, so if you have another decent option, this might
be the week to bench Dak.
While CeeDee Lamb has been a bit disappointing for fantasy, he’s
still delivered a double-digit PPR game in all six straight games,
making him the only Cowboys pass catcher who’s really making
fantasy owners happy thus far. Meanwhile, teammate Michael Gallup
has been absolutely dreadful since making his return to the lineup
in Week 4. The receiver caught a touchdown in that first game
back, but has totaled just eight total catches for 86 yards in
his four contests while not scoring another touchdown since. He’s
a talented player who the Cowboys are invested in, so we should
expect him to get more involved again once Dak is playing like
himself again, but the recent trends tell us that Gallup is someone
who we can safely bench in a matchup like this.
With three straight games of 20+ carries and 140+ rushing yards,
Jacobs has become the Raiders offense. In that same three-game
span he has rushed for 6 TDs and averaged nearly 7.0 yards per
carry while also catching 13 of 15 targets in the passing game.
The Raiders are the answer to 2021s Philadelphia Eagles as the
best rushing team in the league, the Saints are giving up more
than 4.5 yards per rush and Jacobs is a stud RB1 in all formats.
Carr’s yards and attempts have steadily decreased over the
last month as the Raiders move towards a more run-heavy attack,
so the QB’s fantasy value has taken a hit, especially in
light of Carr’s general lack of running ability. But the
Raiders will still throw to score it sems as he has three TD passes
over the last two games. With Davante Adams still very much alive
and well, Carr still has some TD-dependent value and could be
played as a bottom end QB1 if needed, or as a bye week replacement.
A normally stout New Orleans secondary has been reeling in recent
weeks, so HC Josh McDaniels might be convinced to take some shots
with his Carr-to-Adams combo this week.
Renfrow has had more than four catches in a game exactly once
this season, and last week was on the field for just a little
more than half the team’s offensive snaps. He is buried behind
Davante Adams, Mack Hollins, Darren Waller (when healthy), and
maybe even Josh Jacobs in this attack. This is not last year’s
Hunter Renfrow.
LV FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
LV FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
LV FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
LV FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
With Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry continuing to battle injuries
Olave is the clear target monster in this offense, though with
check-down champion Andy Dalton under center, Alvin Kamara will
certainly cut into Olave’s load. New Orleans is going to throw
the ball, especially against a Raiders defense that is allowing
barely 4.0 yards per rush, and Olave is going to see a high volume,
making him an easy WR1 play again this week.
I don’t know if Andy Dalton can help the Saints win games,
especially when he throws three picks in a game, two returned
for TD’s, against the Cardinals last week. But here’s
what I do know. HC Dennis Allen has named Dalton the starter and
he seems determined to open this offense up. Dalton has 80 pass
attempts over the last two weeks and threw for 381 yards and four
scores a week ago. The volume is there, the skills players are
there, and the Raiders are allowing teams to pass at a 72% clip
for more than 7.0 yards per attempt. They also are allowing a
league-high 26+ fantasy points per game to QB’s this season.
For those worried about the interceptions, Dalton only threw one
in his previous three appearances.
Johnson had a big day in Week 7 with two scores, but with Taysom
Hill and Adam Trautman (if healthy) still cutting into his snaps,
and Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara clearly ahead of him in the pecking
order, I just don’t think his role is sustainable week to week.
Don’t get caught up in the hype off one strong outing.
In an offense without a true starting QB, it probably seems odd
to see a receiver here. But with P.J. Walker seemingly solidified
as the QB in Carolina moving forward (at least for the time being),
Moore has seen a bigger role in an otherwise limited offensive
attack. With Christian McCaffrey gone to San Francisco, Moore
became the focus with a season-high seven catches on 10 targets,
the most he’s had since Week 4. Against a Falcons defense that
is allowing a league-high 30 fantasy points per game to receivers,
Moore should once again be a significant contributor.
Walker threw just six passes to receivers other than D.J. Moore
last week and Marshall got three of them. He’s best out
of the slot, but can align anywhere, and with Walker’s athleticism
and arm strength, there is the ability to push the ball downfield
where Marshall makes his money. As the deep threat in this lineup
he’s a bit boom or bust, but could find a bigger role moving
forward if the QB situation doesn’t change, especially against
a bad Falcons defense this week.
Shenault has just three targets all season. Coming out of Colorado
as a rookie he showed so much promise with a wide-ranging versatile
skill set. But now four head coaches and two teams later, he hasn’t
been able to produce. He’s an after-thought in every sense
of the word.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
As I predicted back in the preseason, Allgeier has emerged as
the lead dog in this backfield. With Cordarrelle Pattereson still
a week away from coming off the injured list and Damien Williams
out of the picture, Allgeier is getting the bulk of the work in
what isn’t even a run-first offense. It’s a run no matter what
offense. Down 21-0 in the 2nd quarter the Falcons stuck to the
run. The Panthers have been pretty stingy against the run, but
on volume alone, Allgeier is an RB3 in standing.
QB Marcus Mariota hasn’t had 30 attempts in a game since Week
1. He hasn’t had even 15 in either of the last two games! As a
result, Pitts’ production is clearly affected. His five targets
last week were the most he’s seen in the month of October, and
two of them came in the red zone, so there’s some touchdown upside,
but he’s barely TE1 worthy right now despite a world of talent.
London has four catches on five targets for 49 yards and no touchdowns
TOTAL over the last two games. That is not a typo. Atlanta has
attempted just 27 passes in that span. Until the Falcons let Marcus
Mariota throw the ball, or until they find someone who can, London
will be yet another talented receiver with no opportunity to produce.
Damien Harris returned this past week, but it was still the Rhamondre
Stevenson show in New England as the second-year running back
ran the ball 11 times, including scoring a touchdown, and also
caught eight passes. The surprisingly negative game script certainly
benefited Stevenson who is the much better passing game back,
but Harris’ four total touches and nine total snaps should indicate
pretty strongly that this is still Stevenson’s backfield. He’s
an RB1 until he shows us otherwise.
He may not be particularly exciting, but Jakobi Meyers remains
a very high-floor option as a WR3/Flex for fantasy managers. He’s
produced double-digit PPR fantasy points in every game this season
and he should continue to be the focal point of the New England
passing game, especially with some of the other Patriots pass
catchers dealing with some nagging injuries. Meyers isn’t
likely to give you a huge game, but he hasn’t hurt us yet
this year.
Mac Jones’ return from injury couldn’t have gone much worse this
past week as he got absolutely humiliated by the Bears, leading
to the Patriots deciding to bench him midway through the contests.
We found out this week that Jones will again be given the starting
job here in Week 8, but fantasy managers need to tread extremely
lightly with this situation, as there’s a very real chance that
he struggles again and the team opts to turn to rookie Bailey
Zappe. Even if Jones does play all the way through the contest,
he’s facing a Jets defense that has allowed just one passing touchdown
over their past four contests, so this isn’t a great matchup for
him.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
The injury to Breece Hall was catastrophic for many fantasy managers,
but those who had or were able to acquire Michael Carter should
be in good shape, at least for this one week. Carter touched the
ball 15 times this past week and should be close to bell cow-levels
against the Patriots while James Robinson becomes acquainted with
the offense. The Patriots have been very good against opposing
running backs so far this season, but they did just get done conceding
124 yards on the ground to the Chicago duo of David Montgomery
and Khalil Herbert, so Carter should have an opportunity to be
a decent RB2 this week.
Rookie wide receiver Garrett Wilson has frankly been terrible
since his explosive Week 2 performance, but he should have a real
opportunity to operate as the Jets’ WR1 in Week 8. Corey Davis
hasn’t practiced as of Thursday and while Elijah Moore is expected
to play, he’s clearly deep in the dog house and might end up being
traded very soon, so the Jets are unlikely to suddenly feature
him and risk an injury. Wilson hasn’t been able to get on the
same page with quarterback Zach Wilson, but this is about as good
of an opportunity as you’re going to find to get him back in your
lineup.
It can be tempting to start a player who’s been given a
new opportunity right away, but the Jets’ acquisition of
James Robinson is a dangerous one for fantasy owners - at least
for this week. Certainly, the Jets plan to utilize Robinson and
perhaps he does end up becoming the team’s new primary back,
but we saw this past week that even top-level running backs like
Christian McCaffrey don’t always see significant playing
time in their first game with a new team. Robinson is a solid
player, but he hasn’t been explosive this season so a limited
touch share doesn’t lend itself to a very high fantasy upside
in this game.
His targets remain minimal, but rookie wide receiver George Pickens
is reeling in almost everything thrown in his direction as of
late. He’s finished with 14 or more fantasy points in three
of his past four games, including this past week when he scored
a season-high 18.1 points while scoring the first touchdown of
his professional career. The Eagles are a good defense, but they’re
giving up the 11th-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide
receivers, so hopefully the hot streak continues for Pickens.
No first-round fantasy pick has been worse than running back
Najee Harris this season. Still, the Steelers bell cow continues
to get fed touches every week and he’s typically been able
to give fantasy managers just enough points to continue using
him on a weekly basis. He does face the Eagles defense this week
in a matchup that could potentially lead to a negative game script
so there’s some risk here, but Harris should be in most
lineups especially given the high number of injuries that we’re
seeing throughout the league.
The targets continue to be there for Diontae Johnson as he’s
seen double-digit passes come his way in five of the Steelers’
seven contests so far in 2022. Unfortunately, all that opportunity
has led to zero 100-yard games and zero touchdowns, making Johnson
an extremely low ceiling play who has now failed to exceed 11
fantasy points in four straight contests. That stretch corresponds
with when Kenny Pickett became the starting quarterback in Pittsburgh,
so we shouldn’t expect that things are going to get much better
anytime soon. Add in the fact that he’ll likely see quite a bit
of coverage from Darius Slay and this just doesn’t look like the
game where Johnson suddenly breaks out.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
With at least 16 touches in every game this season, Miles Sanders
continues to prove that he is indeed the bell cow back in Philadelphia.
Unlike Najee Harris on the other sideline in this game, Sanders
has actually given fantasy managers a couple of spike weeks already
and he’ll now face a Pittsburgh defense that has surrendered
back-to-back 100 total-yard games to Raheem Mostert and Leonard
Fournette. He’s a high floor play who also has a decent
ceiling especially if the Eagles get out to an early lead.
The 2022 season has been an interesting one for wide receiver
DeVonta Smith. He started off the year with a zero-catch performance
against the hapless Lions secondary, but he’s since given
fantasy managers four 15-plus-point fantasy days in his other
five opportunities. However, we’ve seen him held below eight
targets in all but two games and that should be concerning for
fantasy managers this week as the Eagles are more than a 10-point
home favorite against the Steelers, which could mean a positive
game script in Philadelphia and thus a lower-than-usual passing-to-run
ratio. Smith is capable of producing on not so many opportunities
so we can’t completely count him out, but this juicy matchup
against a bad Pittsburgh secondary might not give us as many fantasy
points as we’d hope for.
There’s not much to talk about here. Henry IS the Titans
offense. He’s coming off three straight 100-yard rushing
efforts and he actually has eight catches for nearly 75 yards
in the same span as well. We wish the Titans would score more
touchdowns, and we wish they would call Derrick’s number
more often when they do. But other than that, there’s not
much to like offensively in Tennessee.
When given the chance, like last week when he caught all three
of his targets for 56 yards, Hooper has shown himself to be a
capable receiver with playmaking ability. He just doesn’t seem
to get that chance very often, at least since leaving Atlanta
several years ago when he was a considerable weapon in a formidable
passing attack. He and QB Ryan Tannehill actually haven’t mis-connected
on a target since Week 2, and the Tampa 2 defense Texans Lovie
Smith still employs in Houston will give up some plays to the
TE on the seam. Hooper could have another solid outing this week,
or he could split time with two other TE’s and get his usual two
targets per game. It’s a toss-up.
Woods has surpassed 40 receiving yards in a game just once this
year, and hasn’t had more than four catches in a game all
season despite being the clear WR1 on this team. Even with Treylon
Burks out and no one else stepping up, Woods has vanished, another
victim of the Derrick Henry show.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
The big question on Pierce coming into the season as a rookie
was whether he could handle the RB1 load, having never been a
starter in college. Consider the question answered. He’s
coming off four-straight 100-yard rushing efforts and has been
a factor as a receiver out of the backfield as well. He appears
to be the driving force behind this offense which makes him a
low-end RB1 in my book.
Mills is a guy people are always talking about replacing in Houston,
but he has been surprisingly solid, even, maybe especially as
a fantasy option. He has had at least 30 attempts in all but one
game this season, threw for 300 yards last week, and has multiple
TD passes in three of his six games. The Titans are yielding the
5th most QB fantasy points per game this season (24.5), so you
could do a lot worse than Mills as a bye week fill in.
Even not knowing what the Texans offense would really be this
season, I expected Cooks to be better. He has no competition for
targets on this team, and as we mentioned above, the QB is doing
a pretty nice job. So why has Cooks produced just one touchdown
and one game of 60 yards or more? I don’t know, and I don’t really
care. He's off my radar, even with Nico Collins out.
After missing much of the season with a knee injury suffered
in Week 1, Robison got his feet wet in Week 6 with a 3-37-0 line
against the Ravens on 23% of the snaps. In Week 7, his snap share
increased to 69% and he was heavily involved in the first half
finishing with a 6-50-0 line on 8 targets against the Jaguars.
With the Giants void of playmakers on the outside, Robinson is
going to be the target hog when Daniel Jones and Barkley aren’t
using their legs.
The Giants quarterback turned in his best fantasy performance
of the season last week going 202-1-0 through the air and 11-107-1
on the ground. He’s third among quarterbacks in rushing yards
(343) and matches up against a Seahawks team that has been relatively
generous to the position, including allowing Kyler Murray to run
for 100 yards back in Week 6. Passing volume is a concern for
Jones who doesn’t have many playmakers on the outside and he just
lost his best tight end (Daniel Bellinger) to an eye injury.
Fade: N/A
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
The Seahawks are going to need Lockett’s A-game this week with
fellow wideout DK Metcalf expected to miss with a knee injury.
Lockett has been limited in practice this week with an injury
of his own but he’s been the on the field the last two week with
this ailment and should be out there again barring a setback.
Lockett has two 100-yard games under his belt (@SF, @NO) and is
probably a lock for 10 targets in this game as the clear No.1
for option Geno Smith.
The health of DK Metcalf (knee) is a big issue for Geno. Despite
Pete Carroll not willing to rule out Metcalf, we don’t expect
him to play leaving only Tyler Lockett (hamstring) and Marquise
Goodwin as Geno’s top two wideouts against a Giants defense
that’s been serviceable against quarterbacks. Trevor Lawrence
did throw for 300 yards against this unit last week, the only
300-yard game allowed by the G-men. The Seattle QB has played
above expectation this season but I wouldn’t expect the
trend to continue missing his best outside weapon.
With just a couple days to get acquainted with his new team and
the 49ers playbook, McCaffrey turned in a solid performance (8-38-0,
2-24-0) last week against the Chiefs playing only 28% of the snaps.
He didn’t see any usage on third downs or in the two-minute offense.
Expect his usage to increase this week as he gets deeper into
the playbook and Shanahan gets more comfortable with his new weapon.
The Rams represent a negative matchup for running backs but we
don’t typically worry about matchups for McCaffrey and Jeff Wilson
did have 74 yards and a TD against this bunch back in Week 4.
The 49ers do everything fullback Kyle Juszczyk (finger) is expected
to miss this game.
Deebo torched the Rams back in Week 4 with a 6-115-1 line, his
only 100-yard receiving game of the season. His rushing production
has taken a drop with only 33 rushing yards since Week 3 and with
McCaffrey in the mix, it may not be getting better anytime soon.
Still, Deebo is one of the best playmakers on this team and assuming
his hamstring checks out, should be a focal point in this game.
The Rams are a neutral matchup for the 49ers passing game.
Unfortunately for Wilson there’s a new alpha in town which
will relegate him to the No.2 option in the running game. Tyrion
Davis-Price seems to be back in the mix (17% snap share last week),
further cutting into any Flex value Wilson may have. If we get
a hint this weekend that McCaffrey may not see a full workload,
Wilson could claw back some of that Flex value but otherwise,
he can be safely be left on your bench.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Despite already having his bye, Higbee ranks 4th in receptions
among tight ends and is still hovering as a low-end fantasy TE1
despite not scoring a touchdown. In their previous matchup back
in Week 4, Higbee posted a 10-73-0 line on 14 targets. We’re
not likely to see that volume again but there’s no reason
to believe Higbee won’t be a big part of Sean McVay’s
gameplan in Week 8.
As Patrick Mahomes showed last week (423-3-1), you can rack up
some numbers against this 49ers defense despite their lofty rankings.
They’ve had the privilege of playing some less than stellar quarterbacks
to date including: Justin Fields, Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield
and Marcus Mariota. Problem is, Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay
didn’t display any greatness in their previous meeting against
the defense back in Week 4 where Stafford passed for just 254
yards and failed to throw a touchdown. With a bye week to prepare,
I’m expecting a better showing, making Stafford at least a consideration
in Week 8.
The Rams’ running attack has been a mess all season averaging
just 70.5 rushing yards per game and they ranking dead last in
fantasy points scored at the position (13.8 FPts/G – PPR).
The 49ers represent a negative matchup for running backs allowing
the 5th fewest fantasy points to the position. Cam Akers remains
away from the team and even if Henderson (71% snap share in Wk
6) gets the bulk of the work, he’s a very shaky Flex option
given the situation.
Robinson has begun to establish himself as the lead dog with
37 carries for 130+ ground yards over the last two games, while
former WR Antonio Gibson has still held onto some carries and
seems to be stepping into more of a receiving role. The Colts
are allowing almost 125 yards on the ground per game, so it feels
like a spot where HC Ron Rivera will want to run the ball, not
only to set a rhythm for his offense, but to set up play action
for QB Taylor Heinicke’s downfield shots in the passing game.
Robinson is a solid RB2 play this week.
Samuel had developed a nice chemistry with Carson Wentz. But with
Heinicke now under center, at least initially, he seems to have
taken a back seat to Terry McLaurin in the target hunt. Heinicke
likes to push the ball down the field, which is McLaurin’s domain.
Samuel still had a solid 5-53 day last week with his new QB, but
he might not get as many looks as he’s used to going forward.
It seems that with the emergence of Brian Robinson Jr., the backfield
dynamic in Washington has changed. Antonio Gibson took on more
of a receiving role last week, leaving McKissic on the outside
looking in. After posting at least five catches in three of the
first five games, he’s been shut out two weeks in a row
and hardly even been on the field. Unless the Commanders get into
a shootout, or one of the two aforementioned guys gets hurt, McKissic
seems destined for some serious bench time.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Ehlinger is among the top storylines in the NFL this week as
he takes the reins from Matt Ryan. Ehlinger actually looked very
good in limited snaps this preseason, and what he brings to the
table is mobility – both in the pocket, and outside the pocket
where he has proven to be an accurate passer on the run who can
also tuck it and make plays with his legs. Playing behind a shaky
o-line, against a Washington defense that has 19 sacks on the
season, that element of his game may come in handy.
This is a bit of a flyer pick obviously, but Washington is allowing
nearly 7.0 yards per attempt and has given up 14 TDs through the
air. How many times have we seen these first-time starters, who
don’t have a lot of film out there, light it up in their
first couple starts? It happens a lot, and Ehlinger has the playmaking
ability to make some noise until opposing DC’s figure him
out.
Over the last two games, Campbell has been emerging as a focal
point of the passing attack with 23 targets over the two contests,
far away the leader on the team. But with QB Matt Ryan now on
sideline, it remains to be seen how he fits into the offense.
As productive as he’s been, it’s hard to stick with
him not knowing what this attack will look like when the ball
is in Ehlinger’s hands.
There had been some talk in the Indy media about an increased
role for Woods. It hasn’t panned out, and even if it eventually
does, he’s still sharing snaps not only with Mo Alie-Cox, but
with Kylen Granson as well.
There hasn’t been much to be excited about in the Packers’ offense
this season, but at least Aaron Jones has given fantasy managers
an RB1 season up to this point. Many believed that this would
be a split backfield with AJ Dillon, but Jones has been by far
the more productive player between the two, especially in the
passing game, where he caught nine passes this past week, including
a pair of touchdowns. Jones does have a very difficult matchup
this week against a Bills defense that has given up the fourth-fewest
fantasy points per game to opposing running backs so far this
season, but Jones has played more than twice as many snaps as
Dillon over the past three weeks, so he should be in line for
a decent number of opportunities yet again, especially if the
Packers fall behind on the scoreboard.
Rookie wide receiver Romeo Doubs has not been the breakout player
that a lot of experts were predicting heading into the season
and things got really bad this past week when he was shut out
on the scoreboard for the first time in his career, on just four
targets. This would normally mean that he’d fall firmly within
the “fade” section of this article, but the Packers may not have
many other options to pass the ball to this week. Allen Lazard
(shoulder) is not expected to play, Randall Cobb is still out,
and fellow rookie Christian Watson and veteran Sammy Watkins are
both dealing with hamstring injuries that have limited them in
practice. There’s a real chance that Doubs is clearly the team’s
WR1 this week in what is expected to be a negative game script
situation, with the Packers being over 10-point underdogs against
the Bills. This is more of a hopeful-volume play than anything
else, but those in need could do worse than Doubs.
The Packers are likely going to be very limited at pass catcher
this week and while that plays well for the likes of Romeo Doubs,
Robert Tonyan and Aaron Jones, that’s not exactly true for the
quarterback. Even if Rodgers had all of his pass catchers, though,
he’s been decidedly average this season and very unlike his back-to-back-MVP
self. Certainly, Rodgers is the kind of player who provides a
decent weekly floor, but his upside is minimal this week and there
are probably players on your league’s waiver wire who give you
a better opportunity to win in Week 8.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Devin Singletary might just be the league’s most under-the-radar
bell cow back this season. The Bills running back played a whopping
63 snaps this past week while rookie James Cook saw the only other
snaps running back and was on the field for just 10. That’s now
the third time in four weeks that Singletary has played at least
56 offensive snaps. Not surprisingly, those three games are his
all of his best fantasy performances so far this season. Look
for Singletary to get another heavy opportunity share this week
in what could be a great game script for him if the Bills get
out to an early lead.
Gabe Davis continues to be a low-volume player who somehow provides
big splash plays in the Buffalo offense. He hasn’t yet been
targeted more than six times in any game, yet he’s produced
three games of 16 or more fantasy points, including 48.5 fantasy
points over his past two games prior to the Bills’ Week
7 bye. It’s always tough to fully trust a player who could
end up only getting something like three targets in a game, but
he’s shown us an ability to make fantasy owners happy on
very limited opportunities.
Anytime you “fade” a Bills player, you’re risking
that player going off for multiple touchdowns, but this seems
like a good time to bench tight end Dawson Knox. While he’s
coming off of his best performance of the season, Knox has still
not caught more than four passes in any game yet this year and
he’s only caught the one touchdown reception that he made
in Week 6 against the Chiefs. Knox is another one in the gigantic
“touchdown-or-bust” group at tight end, but there
are likely better options on teams that might end up needing to
pass the ball more than the Bills will against the Packers.
With Burrow joining the no-brainers, there are only two players
on the Bengals to be considered for spot duty each week. Hurst
is one of them. While he hasn’t reached the highs of Tyler Boyd,
the offseason pickup has been a bit steadier, finishing with five
or more receptions in four of the team’s seven games. The Browns
are coming off a game in which they blanked Mark Andrews, but
don’t read too much into that as the Ravens wanted to run the
ball with Lamar Jackson attempting just 16 passes. Hurst is a
fringe No. 1 tight end option.
Update: With
Ja'Marr Chase out, Boyd is now a Flex consideration in most leagues.
In seven games this season, Boyd has delivered meaningful fantasy
value twice. That includes last Sunday when he torched the woeful
Falcons secondary for eight catches, 155 yards, and a touchdown.
The veteran faced the Browns once in 2021 and came away from it
with just a single catch for 11 yards. Boyd is something of a
lottery ticket each week, so if you’re desperate you can
roll him out as your WR3 or flex, but the odds don’t appear
to be in your favor this Monday.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
With David Njoku
(ankle) out of action this Monday, Cooper should serve as the
clear top target for Jacoby Brissett. The veteran has scored in
four of the team’s last six games and outside of a dismal Week
4 effort he has delivered playable value each week during that
stretch. The Bengals have been tough against opposing passing
games, ranking ninth in the NFL with 202.1 yards allowed contest,
but don’t let that scare you off Cooper, who could serve as a
low-end WR2 or strong WR3.
Once again, we look to the Njoku injury to elevate DPJ’s
usage for Week 8. In fairness, Peoples-Jones has quietly been
playing well recently. In his last four games he has topped 70
yards three times, and in the other game he still had a respectable
50 yards on four grabs. The issue is DPJ’s deep work has
dried up. For the season he’s averaging 12.9 yards per catch,
well down from the 17.6 he averaged last year. He also hasn’t
caught a touchdown pass since Nov. 7, 2021. Even with that, Peoples-Jones
could fill a flex spot with modest upside.
Despite his snap counts remaining fairly consistent, Hunt’s
usage has fallen off a cliff over the past two games with the
complementary back logging just 10 total touches and being completely
phased out of the passing game (three targets, one catch). Hunt
missed both games against Cincy last year due to injury, and until
he reemerges as a key cog in this offense he shouldn’t be
relied on as more than a flex with upside.
