Passing
Game Thoughts: With six consecutive wins, including an
impressive 24-7 win at home last week against the NFC West-leading
Los Angeles Rams, head coach Mike Zimmer will continue to ride
Case Keenum in favor of incumbent starter Teddy Bridgewater.
Keenum, a journeyman backup with a career completion percentage
of just over 60%, is competing closer to 70% of his passes during
the winning streak, including 81% of his throws in Minnesota’s
20-17 road win against the Bears Week 5. He also set a career-high
mark of four touchdown passes against the Redskins as part of
a 31.1 fantasy performance in Week 10.
Thursday’s matchup against the Lions on Thanksgiving will
be a big test for Keenum and the Vikings, as their division foe
won the first matchup at US Bank Stadium 14-7, with Keenum posting
his second-fewest fantasy point total of the season (11.0).
The Lions rank 23rd in total defense in 2017 and allow the 20th-most
points to opposing quarterbacks. The Darius Slay/Glover Quinn
led secondary has done an excellent job limiting sub-par passers
like Brett Hundley, DeShone Kizer, and Mitchell Trubisky to one
or fewer passing touchdowns over the past three weeks, while more
accomplished QBs like Drew Brees and Cam Newton were able to post
big performances against this unit.
As the fourth-worst team in points allowed to opposing running
backs, attacking the Lions on the ground has been the preferred
mode of attack for opposing offensive coordinators. But that does
not mean Keenum and the passing game won’t find success
on Thursday through the air, especially with tight end Kyle Rudolph
against a linebacking corps that allows the 12th-most points to
opposing TEs. Detroit has allowed at least 70 yards or a receiving
touchdown to a tight end in four of the last six games, including
a career-high 175 yards by Ed Dixon in Week 5.
On the injury front, the Vikings enter the Thanksgiving short
week at full strength on the offensive side of the ball, with
no offensive players list on the official injury report. The Lions
have four players listed on their injury report, highlighted by
pass rush specialist Ziggy Ansah, who was a limited participant
in practice on Monday and Tuesday with a back injury. Ansah will
likely play on Thursday, however, the short week can be difficult
for players nursing nagging injuries like Ansah’s back ailment.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon are
excellent plays this week, as only the 49ers, Bills, and Rams
have allowed more fantasy points to opposing running backs this
season. Seven running backs have posted double-digit performances
against the Lions, including the tandem of Jordan Howard and Tarik
Cohen last week in Chicago. The duo combined for 169 rushing yards
and two touchdowns, with Cohen adding 15 receiving yards on four
receptions.
Murray will continue to be the early down and short yardage back
with the upside of goal-line carries, while McKinnon should see
plenty of action in the passing game. In addition not allowing
the second-most rushing touchdowns on the season (10), the Lions
have given up the sixth-most receptions to opposing backs. Both
running backs will be active in this game, and both are worthy
of a start in all formats as No.2 RBs or flex plays, with McKinnon
offering the most upside.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Mike Zimmer’s defensive unit ranks
5th in total defense behind only Jacksonville, Carolina, Denver,
and Pittsburgh in total yards allowed and 11th in yards allowed
in the passing game. The Vikings allow an average of 17.4 points
per game to opposing quarterbacks, although those numbers are
somewhat skewed by a two-rushing touchdown outlier performance
by Kirk Cousins in a surprising shootout between the Vikings and
Redskins in Week 10. No quarterback has thrown for more than two
touchdowns against the Vikings, and only Jameis Winston and Cousins
have been able to reach the 300-yard plateau.
Matthew Stafford’s worst game of the season came against
the Vikings Week 4, as Stafford completed just 19 of 31 passes
for 209 yards and zero touchdowns. Stafford has not thrown for
more than two touchdowns against Zimmer’s defense in the
past three seasons, making him a decent but not strong play this
Thursday.
Stafford’s wide receivers rank fourth in combined fantasy
points on the season behind only Pittsburgh, Houston, and the
L.A. Rams. Golden Tate continues to be a favorite target of Stafford’s
out of the slot with at least six receptions in four of his last
five games, while Marvin Jones has been fantasy gold with four
touchdowns in his last five games, including a monster two-touchdown,
107-yard performance in Week 9 against the Packers.
Of the two receiving options this week, Tate will likely have
more value working out of the slot while Xavier Rhodes mirrors
Jones on the outside. Slot receivers have found some success against
the Vikings, while Rhodes has done a solid job limiting the production
of outside receivers like Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins,
and Jones in Week 4.
Kenny Golladay is a sneaky start in this game as the deep threat
off of play action against an aggressive secondary. Martavis Bryant
and DeSean Jackson were able to beat the Vikings for a deep touchdown
this season, and Golladay could be in line for a couple of deep
shots if Ameer Abdullah and the Detroit ground game can find success
running the ball to open up the play action pass.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Running Game Thoughts: After spending most of the season near
the bottom of the pack in combined fantasy points scored at the
running back position, the Lions moved up to 25th in points scored
after three consecutive weeks of Ameer Abdullah scoring a touchdown.
After a disappointing start to the season, the former Nebraska
Cornhusker has slowly climbed up to 27th in fantasy points per
game (8.4), just behind Jay Ajayi and C.J. Anderson.
Starting Abdullah against a Vikings defense that allows the fewest
points to opposing running backs is not the best play this week.
However, it should be noted that Abdullah’s 20/94/1 line
against Minnesota is the best performance of the season by Abdullah
and the second most total yards allowed to an opposing back by
the Vikings in 2017.
All eight players listed on the injury report for the Vikings
play on the defensive side of the ball, highlighted by stud cornerback
Xavier Rhodes and defensive end Everson Griffen. All eight players,
including Rhodes, were able to make it through a full practice
on Wednesday and appear ready to go for Thursday’s game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Philip Rivers didn’t have to do much
last week as the Chargers had the pleasure of facing Nate Peterman
for half a game. When Rivers did throw, he just stared down Keenan
Allen because that’s all he’s capable of doing. It
was fine though because it worked. Allen caught 12 of 13 targets
for 159 yards and two touchdowns. Allen had been coming off a
handful of lackluster weeks so it was nice to see this out of
him. Beyond Allen, no one on this pass catching corps matters.
Mike Williams was actually second on the team with eight targets,
but he still finished with just five receptions for 38 yards.
Hunter Henry caught two balls. Tyrell Williams caught one. On
a short week on the road, Thursday is not the ideal spot for the
Chargers. However, the Cowboys are a team in complete disarray
and there is nothing in Jason Garrett’s coaching history
to suggest he’s capable of putting together a plan or rallying
the team. Rivers will throw to Allen and dare the Cowboys to stop
it. They probably won’t be able to for a full game.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Running Game Thoughts: Melvin Gordon surprisingly didn’t
catch a single pass last week, just the second time this season
he’s failed to record a reception. He had a nice fantasy
day with 80 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries, but is still
losing snaps to the more dynamic Austin Ekeler. The rookie had
half as many yards as Gordon, but only carried the ball six times.
Ekeler is a better player than Gordon, but the Chargers will continue
to push Gordon like they have been since his rookie season. Gordon
is a safe bet to touch the ball 20 times on Thursday and the Cowboys
are falling apart. Gordon should be able to succeed with volume
and wear down the Cowboys defense leading to second half production.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Oh dear. Where to begin? Since Tyron Smith
went down, Dak Prescott has spent two games failing to reach 200
yards passing or the end zone (he had one rushing score against
the Falcons and then spent the next seven quarters of football
not scoring any points). Last week was the worst game of Prescott’s
career. He posted a season low 58.1 completion percentage, a season
low 10 rushing yards, and beat his season low in passing yards
by just two. He also gave the ball to the wrong team four times.
The short week shouldn’t be that big of a deal for Dallas
since they’ve done this every year since Thanksgiving games
started, but it certainly doesn’t help. Dez Bryant continued
his streak of not reaching double digit receptions or triple digit
yardage with 8-63 on 14 targets. At least he was useful. He will
continue to be a useful WR3, but nothing more. It is difficult
to know what to do with Prescott this week. If Tyron Smith plays,
which is looking likely, we can feel more confident, but after
starting the season on fire, Prescott has been downright useless
three of the past four weeks. Given the situation with the team,
the fact that this game is on Thursday, and the Chargers impressive
defensive display last week (taken with a grain of salt, of course),
it is fair to consider benching Prescott if you have a viable
alternative. However, I wouldn’t put it past Prescott to
step it up on Thanksgiving in a game the Cowboys absolutely cannot
lose.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Running Game Thoughts: We finally got some clarity on the post-Zeke
era. Rod Smith started the game, but it was Alfred Morris who
was the clear feature back. Morris did his best Zeke impression
with 91 yards on 17 carries. Smith rushed for just 11 yards on
eight carries. The Chargers could do no wrong last week against
the Bills, except for the part where they let LeSean McCoy rattle
off 114 yards on just 13 carries. Morris has a legitimate shot
at a 100-yard day. With Tyron Smith back, Morris might actually
be a startable RB2 against a poor Chargers run defense. Smith
and Darren McFadden can be universally dropped.
Passing
Game Thoughts: So the Giants get blown out by C.J. Beathard
and the 49ers, but beat Alex Smith and the Chiefs. Makes sense.
They certainly didn’t do it with offense though. Eli Manning
threw for 205 empty yards, which, unsurprisingly, resulted in
no useful fantasy receivers. It did not help that Sterling Shepard
was inactive due to migraines. If he returns Thursday, expect
double digit targets. However, Shepard was limited at practice
Monday and not seen on Tuesday. It seems surprising that migraines
would last this long, but I’ve never had migraines and I’m
not a doctor. As of Wednesday, it was looking increasingly unlikely
that Shepard will play. If Shepard can’t go, Manning will
have to rely almost exclusively on Evan Engram, who is coming
off the worst game of his young career, which includes a game
in which he did not catch a pass. Engram caught his first target
for nine yards and then could not connect with Manning on the
next five. There were a combination of factors working against
Engram ranging from miscommunication to questionable push off
calls to just plain bad football. Engram apparently gave an impassioned
speech on Sunday, though. I expect a bounce back performance is
in the cards. None of Roger Lewis, Tavarres King, or Travis Rudolph
have any value. It will be a tough test against Josh Norman and
Bashaud Breeland for the outside WRs. I like Engram a lot this
week.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Running Game Thoughts: Orleans Darkwa is firmly the lead back
for the Giants and rightfully so. He only managed 74 yards on
his 20 carries, but that’s way better than anyone else is
capable of. Darkwa also plunged into the end zone for the game’s
only touchdown. He now has at least 16 touches over his past three
games and has been incredibly consistent with rushing totals of
71, 70, and 74. Darkwa has settled in as a flex/low end RB2. It’s
been a long time since the Giants backfield had any fantasy value.
The Redskins are difficult to throw on so the Giants will try
and pound it with Darkwa even in situations where they shouldn’t
(have to love the innovative run-run-pass sequence that has become
the Ben McAdoo special).
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Saints actually have a very good pass
defense, but no one told Kirk Cousins last week. Cousins threw
for 322 yards and three touchdowns in a game the Redskins inexplicably
lost. With Terrelle Pryor done for the season, Josh Doctson’s
ascension has begun. He caught four of seven targets for 81 yards.
His snap count and target share will only continue to grow. Jamison
Crowder has reemerged on our radar. He caught seven of eight targets
for 72 yards, marking his third consecutive useful game. Jordan
Reed didn’t play and has been ruled out for Week 12. Davis
only caught three passes last week, but totaled 67 yards. He hasn’t
scored since Week 3, but he’s been a viable fantasy starter
every week except Week 8 against Dallas. The Giants did not stop
the Chiefs last week so much as Andy Reid stopped the Chiefs because
apparently he’s forgotten how to call an offense. The Giants
pass defense can be exploited as the 49ers proved the week before.
Doctson, Crowder, and Davis are all startable options even on
a short week.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Running Game Thoughts: The week after Rob Kelley was lost for
the season, the Redskins actually lost someone important –
Chris Thompson. Without CT, the Redskins have a definitive void
in their passing attack and are certain to sign a running back
at some point. Right now, Byron Marshall is the only healthy back
behind workhorse starter Samaje Perine. I say workhorse starter
because Perine has no choice. He touched the ball 24 times last
week, 23 of them on the ground for 117 yards and a touchdown.
He is going to see volume and especially so on the short week
as the Redskins won’t be able to get anyone up to speed
in just three days. Perine has talent, but was buried by Jay Gruden
due to fumbling issues. Perine has to hold onto the ball now because
there is no one else. As long as Perine can avoid costly mistakes,
he has a good chance to be a strong RB2 the rest of the way. This
is his chance to stake his claim to the starting role for 2018.
I expect him to build upon his mini breakout this Thursday.
Passing
Game Thoughts: 2017 has been a roller-coaster season filled
with highs and lows for rookie DeShone Kizer. Despite multiple
demotions by head coach Hue Jackson due to erratic throws and
poor decision making one would expect from a rookie, Kizer has
two top-6 performances on the season, including a 30.5 point game
Week 3 against the Colts. His 16.0 point per game average places
him just behind Blake Bortles and Jameis Winston for 30th overall
this season, but well ahead of Jay Cutler, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brett
Hundley, and Joe Flacco.
The problem with Kizer is that his bad performances on the roller
coaster season are terrible, with three single-digit games from
Weeks 4 through 7, including a 6.9 point performance against the
Bengals Week 4. In that match, the former Norte Dame Golden Domer
completed just 47% of his passes for 118 yards and one interception,
and the Bengals held the mobile QB to only ten rushing yards on
five attempts.
Kizer will have more weapons at his disposal in his rematch against
the Bengals on Sunday with the return of wide receiver Corey Coleman,
who missed the Week 4 tilt with a broken hand. Coleman was a target
monster against the Jags last week, garnering 11 of Kizer’s
19 pass attempts for six receptions for 80 yards. Not a bad performance
considering the fact that the game was played against the league’s
top pass defense in less than ideal weather conditions.
Although nowhere near as difficult a matchup as the Jags, the
Bengals have been stout against the pass, allowing the fourth-fewest
points to opposing wide receivers.
The leading receiver on the Browns continues to be running back
Duke Johnson, a versatile player who is tied with James White
for third-most receptions by a running back with 46 on the year.
Johnson should be active in this game against a Bengals team that
allows the fourth-most receptions to opposing running backs on
the season. As is always the case with the winless Browns, a positive
game script for Johnson is something to consider and the favored
Bengals could run away with this game.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Running Game Thoughts: After allowing just two rushing touchdowns
over the first nine games of the season, the Bengals have given
up three rushing touchdowns over the past two contests, including
a two rushing touchdown day (three total TDs) to DeMarco Murray.
Early down and short yardage back Isaiah Crowell came crashing
back to Earth last week with a 1.8 point dud after consecutive
games with a rushing touchdown. His 1.6 yard per carry average
was his worst performance of the year, and he failed to catch
a ball for only the second time in 2017. Look for Crow to find
more success this week regarding his YPC average; however, he
continues to be a touchdown-dependent play that has yet to top
the century mark in rushing yards or receive more than 17 rushing
attempts in a game.
Johnson’s usage in the run game was surprisingly low last
week after Jackson gave the former Miami Hurricane 10 carries
against Detroit Week 10. Although he only got two carries out
of the backfield, Johnson continues to be a solid flex play due
to his usage in the passing game (20 receptions in his last four
games).
Passing
Game Thoughts: There are few times each season when Andy
Dalton should be considered a must-start, top 10 option in fantasy.
A home game against a Browns defense that allows the 12-most points
to opposing quarterbacks is one such time. Dalton has been nearly
perfect against the Browns in his last five matchups, with 13
touchdown passes and zero interceptions. He finished as a No.1
quarterback in each of those five games and should do the same
this week against the winless Browns.
Although the volume for wide receiver A.J. Green has been somewhat
disappointing with only one performance of five or more receptions
in his last five games, he is primed for a monster day and should
be considered an elite play vs. Cleveland. Anything less than
100 yards and a touchdown will be a letdown for Green, as numerous
wide receivers have posted big games this season against the Browns,
including T.Y. Hilton’s 153/1 performance Week 3.
After a pedestrian 3/37 line last week against the stout Denver
Bronco secondary, veteran wideout Brandon LaFell could be a sneaky
play this week against an injury-depleted Browns defense. Top
cornerback Jason McCourty will likely line up exclusively opposite
of Green, leaving LaFell matched up against Jamar Taylor.
The Browns could be without safeties Gabriel Peppers and Derron
Smith, leaving third-string Justin Currie as the likely starting
safety opposite Derrick Kindred. Green and LeFell are excellent
starts against a fully healthy Browns secondary, but against a
third-string safety, both players could be difference makers on
Sunday.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Running Game Thoughts: Only the Seahawks, Bucs, and Dolphins
have scored fewer fantasy points at the running back position
than the Bengals, a team that looked to be primed for a big year
with highly touted rookie Joe Mixon joining the mix.
But Mixon has been anything but impressive this season running
behind a subpar run blocking offensive line, with 370 yards and
three touchdowns on 127 carries. His 2.9 yards per carry average
is dead last in the NFL for backs with at least 100 carries, just
behind fellow rookie Christian McCaffrey and veterans Doug Martin
and Jonathan Stewart.
Mixon rushed for only 29 yards on 17 carries when the two teams
faced off in Cleveland in Week 4, one of three different games
this season in which the former Oklahoma Sooner failed to top
2.0 yards per attempt.
After a strong start of the season with 79 yards on eight touches
against the Ravens, Giovani Bernard continues to have zero fantasy
value as the forgotten man in the Cincinnati backfield. Even with
Jeremy Hill placed on injured reserve, Bernard is not getting
enough volume in an already terrible ground game to garner any
consideration in fantasy leagues.
The surprisingly stout Cleveland run defense is one of the few
positives for this otherwise terrible team, limiting opposing
running backs to just three rushing touchdowns on the season,
with only one player reaching the century mark (Leonard Fournette
last week.) The positive game script for the Bengals offense and
the corresponding volume that Mixon will likely receive this week
make him a decent start, but he is a touchdown-dependent play
due to his inefficient play.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Packers passing offense has been a dumpster
fire since Aaron Rodgers went down with a broken collarbone, with
only Davante Adams possessing any fantasy value with Brett Hundley
under center. Hundley ranks 38th in fantasy points per game (12.9)
in his four starts dating back to Week 7, with only one passing
touchdown and one 20-plus fantasy point performance.
A prime-time game on the road against a Pittsburgh defense that
allows the third-fewest points to opposing quarterbacks is not
a favorable matchup for Hundley to begin to turn things around.
No quarterback has thrown for more than two touchdowns against
the Steelers, and the Pittsburgh defense is tied for fourth in
interceptions forced after picking off Marcus Mariota four times
last week.
With interceptions and holding onto the ball too long plaguing
Hundley over the past month as a starting quarterback, the Steelers
are primed for a monster defensive performance on Sunday Night.
The player hurt most by the loss of Aaron Rodgers is Jordy Nelson.
Nelson caught six touchdown passes in five games of action with
Rodgers under center, including a 19.5 point, two-touchdown game
against the Bears in Week 4. With Hundley at the helm of the Green
Bay offense, Nelson has 15.4 fantasy points combined in his last
five games. It is difficult to see such a talented wide receiver
go to waste near the end of his career, but at this point in the
season, Nelson is not worthy of a start in a standard league.
With three double-digit performances over the past five weeks,
Adams is the favorite target of Hundley and continues to have
value as a No.3 WR. Although Adams has only two touchdowns during
that span, his 27.5 target share and 28 % of the team’s
targets makes him a valuable asset regardless of opponent.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: Rookie Jamaal Williams earned the start
at running back last week against the Ravens with Ty Montgomery
and Aaron Jones sidelined with injuries. Williams rushed 18 times
for 57 yards, adding 38 yards on four receptions in the passing
game. It was a pedestrian performance in a lopsided shutout loss
against Baltimore, but Williams owners should be pleased with
the number of targets the rookie from BYU received in the game.
The prospects for Williams having a big game this week are slim
due to the fact that the Packers will be chasing points against
a Steelers offense that is starting to gel. It also doesn’t
help that the Steelers rank 26th in fantasy points allowed to
opposing running backs and no running back has scored a touchdown
against Pittsburgh since Week 5, and no running back has scored
a touchdown in the passing game.
Safety Mike Mitchell was a full participant in practice on Wednesday
and looks to be on pace to return to the field after missing last
week’s game against the Titans with a sprained ankle. Mitchell’s
presence as the hammer safety in the Steelers ground game is another
negative factor working against Williams on Sunday Night.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger posted his best game
of the season last week against the Titans with a 299-yard, four
touchdown performance in a 40-17 lopsided victory. The 32-point
showing for Ben was his second consecutive strong game and evidence
that the Pittsburgh pass offense is starting to come into form.
Antonio Brown reminded the fantasy world that he is still one
of the best wide receivers (if not the best) in football with
a three-touchdown performance, including a circus one-handed catch
late in the fourth quarter. Brown is set to deliver another monster
game against a Green Bay secondary that allows the eighth-most
points to opposing wide receivers. Ten different wide receivers
have scored at least ten points this season vs. the Packers, with
No.1 WRs Julio Jones, A.J. Green, and Dez Bryant all having solid
weeks against the Pack.
Injuries to key players in the Green Bay defensive unit will
make an already tenable situation nearly impossible, with linebackers
Nick Perry and Clay Matthews limited with foot and groin injuries,
and defensive tackle Quinton Dial a limited participant in practice
with a chest injury. Perry and Dial look to be on track to play,
while Matthews may be more of a long shot after missing practice
on both Wednesday and Thursday due to a groin pull.
Rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster looks questionable for Sunday’s
game with a hamstring injury that has held the former USC Trojan
out of practice on Wednesday. With Smith-Schuster likely limited
or out for this game, a Martavis Bryant monster game at home in
prime time could be in the cards.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Running Game Thoughts: The Pittsburgh Steelers rank 23rd out
for 32 teams in combined fantasy points by running backs, a shocking
development considering the dominance Le’Veon Bell has exhibited
over the past few years at the RB position. Bell is still an elite
option and should pay dividends this week against a unit that
allows the 9th-most points to opposing defenses, but there is
no denying the fact that he has been disappointing over the last
four games with only one touchdown in his previous 95 carries.
A positive game script is in play for Bell to get a ton of second-half
closing carries with the Steelers running away with this game.
It was clear in the lopsided win over the Titans last week that
Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh coaching staff was focused on getting
Big Ben and the Steeler red zone passing game on track. It will
not be a surprise if Tomlin uses this blowout win to get Bell
and the running game going against a defensive unit that has allowed
rushing touchdowns in four of the last five games.
Passing
Game Thoughts: To say that the Houston Texan pass offense
has taken a turn for the worse without rookie Deshaun Watson would
be a massive understatement, as Tom Savage has yet to pass for
more than 230 and two touchdowns in a game after Watson led the
league in fantasy points before his knee injury.
An immobile statue in the pocket with questionable accuracy and
decision making, Savage has killed the fantasy value of every
receiving option on the Texans not named DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins’
elite route running and ball skills mixed with one of the highest
target percentages has allowed the pro bowl receiver to weather
the storm and continue to be an elite fantasy option.
Hopkins faces a difficult challenge this week against a Baltimore
secondary that allows the second-fewest points to opposing wide
receivers. Although Davante Adams managed to rack up 126 yards
on eight receptions last week, no other wide receiver has topped
the century mark vs. the Ravens in 2017, and no WR has posted
a multi-touchdown game.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Running Game Thoughts: An Achilles injury to D’Onta Foreman
against Arizona last week was an unfortunate end to what turned
out to be a monster performance for the former Texas Longhorn.
Lamar Miller may see more carries in the absence of Foreman, but
Bill O’Brien and the Houston coaching staff learned last
season that high value for Miller does not always equate to high
production. Alfred Blue could also get into the mix, as a heavy
run game plan will likely be used against a Ravens team that is
more susceptible the run than the pass.
The Ravens allow the 19th most points to opposing running backs
on the season, although they have been much better over the last
month with the return of a healthy Brandon Williams in the middle
of the defensive line. With Savage prone to making mistakes and
a Ravens secondary skilled in confusing quarterbacks and forcing
mistakes, O’Brien will try to run early and often on Sunday.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco has not thrown for three or more
touchdown passes in his last 14 games dating back to last season,
and he ranks 40th in fantasy points per game (12.4). Only Houston’s
Tom Savage has scored fewer fantasy points this season than Flacco,
making this game toilet bowl matchup between to inept quarterbacks
and passing offenses.
On a positive note for Flacco and his receiving weapons, the
Texans allow the most points to opposing quarterbacks at 25.2
points per game. If Blaine Gabbert and Jacoby Brissett can post
20-plus performances against the Texans, it is not out of the
realm of possibility for Flacco to do the same.
The return of Danny Woodhead as the receiving option out of the
backfield was a boost for Flacco and the passing game, with the
elusive receiving back catching five passes for 21 yards. Woodhead
is a nice flex play, especially in PPR formats, while former receiving
option Buck Allen appears to have little value now that Woodhead
is back in the mix.
Veteran wide receives Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace are worthy
of a start as No.3 wideouts with top 24 upside. Maclin has the
higher floor as the more targeted WR over the past four weeks,
while Wallace has the higher ceiling as at the deep threat. Wallace
also appears to be heating up with a touchdown in each of his
last two games.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: If last week’s game against the
Packers is any indication of how carries will be distributed going
forward, Alex Collins is the unquestioned first and second down
back for head coach John Harbaugh, with Danny Woodhead usurping
Buck Allen as the receiving back on passing and third downs. Collins
scored his first NFL touchdown last week as part of a 49-yard
performance against the Packers while adding 22 yards on four
receptions in the air.
Where the Texans are the worst team in points allowed to opposing
wide receivers, they are very difficult to run on, and running
backs have not found it easy to score rushing touchdowns. This
could be partly due to the fact that teams focus on the weakness
of the Texans and forgo the run, but it cannot be overlooked in
that the Texans have allowed only one rushing touchdown on the
season.
Woodhead could be the best running back play this week for Baltimore,
as the Texans do have a weakness in allowing receiving touchdowns
to RBs out of the backfield. After easing him into action after
missing ten games with a severe hamstring injury, Woodhead could
be fully unleashed against Houston.
Passing
Game Thoughts: When we last saw Cam Newton two weeks ago,
he was having his best game of the season. Newton threw for a
season high four touchdowns and added a season high 95 yards on
the ground. With a week off and a trip to face the Jets, it is
all systems go for the Panthers offense this week. Helping Newton
will be his top receiver, Devin Funchess. Newton has targeted
Funchess at least six times in every game except Week 1. While
Funchess has yet to eclipse 100 yards, he has been close his last
two games with totals of 86 and 92. It remains to be seen how
his target share will be impacted by the return of Newton’s
old friend, Greg Olsen. The veteran TE has been on the shelf since
he broke his foot in Week 2. He’s back and ready to go.
He wasn’t doing much of anything when he went down, but
it is hard, if not impossible, to compare what was happening in
Week 2 to the situation now. Olsen should step right back into
his old role, relegating Ed Dickson to the bench, and be a viable
TE1 down the stretch. I would hesitate to deploy Olsen this week,
though, as history is not kind to players coming off long layoffs.
It would be prudent to wait a week if you can afford to do so.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: Somehow,
Jonathan Stewart rushed for 110 yards against Miami two weeks
ago. JStew is done and one fluky performance is not going to change
my thoughts on that. This is still the Christian McCaffrey show.
CMac touched the ball a season low eight times in his last game,
but still managed 50 yards and a touchdown both receiving and
rushing. His usage has been relatively consistent and is floor
is extremely high. The game script suggest McCaffrey’s ceiling
could be limited this week as the Panthers project to control
this game throughout and have the option to sit on a lead with
Stewart. Under no circumstances would I consider starting Stewart
and under no circumstances would I consider benching McCaffrey.
You just need to temper expectations in a game the Panthers may
not need to throw much, which is where McCaffrey does most of
his work.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Jets also had a week off, which should
have helped old man Josh McCown, who had one of his weaker performances
when we last saw him. McCown completed a season low 59% of his
passes in a game where the Jets could only muster up one touchdown.
Things don’t get much better this week as the Panthers defense
has shut down weaker opponents all season. We’ll see if
that can stop touchdown machine Robby Anderson, who has scored
in four straight games. Anderson has caught more than four passes
just once in a game all season, but his targets and usage have
been consistent. The Jets are a low volume passing attack so Anderson’s
ceiling will always be capped. If he doesn’t score, you
may not like what you find. With that being said, there’s
nothing wrong with Anderson as a WR3. Jermaine Kearse certainly
isn’t a threat. The only other guy is TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins.
He posted his highest yardage total of just 67. ASJ is not efficient,
but he’s still useful in fantasy as a red zone target and
checkdown man.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Running Game Thoughts: I have no idea what the Jets are doing
with their running game and neither do the Jets. One week Matt
Forte is back to being the lead dog and the next week he’s
suddenly injured. One week Bilal Powell dominates touches and
the next it’s Elijah McGuire. After seeing this backfield
play out this season, I’ve reached the following conclusion:
unless Forte is healthy, just bench them all. Forte has been effective
as the lead back when given the volume, but he’s not healthy
now. Even if he plays, we don’t need him at less than 100%;
not at his age. I would need to be reasonable sure he’s
a full go before sending him out there. Powell and McGuire can’t
seem to figure out which one should take the reins. The Jets aren’t
good enough to warrant trying to guess so go another route.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With Jay Cutler still in the concussion
protocol, it looks like Matt Moore will make the start this week.
Moore was dreadful in his last full game performance where he
was a turnover machine against the Ravens on Thursday night. However,
Moore isn’t typically that bad and it really doesn’t
matter who plays QB for the Dolphins because they are not winning
this game. For fantasy purposes, Moore starting is good news for
Kenny Stills, who appears to be Moore’s favorite target.
Stills posted a 5-65 line on 10 targets in the loss to Baltimore
and then 7-180-1 last week, mostly with Moore. In a game that
will feature a ton of passing due to the Dolphins trailing, Stills’
arrow is pointing upwards with Moore.
Jarvis Landry has double digit targets in all but two games this
season. He’s also quietly scored a touchdown in six of his
last seven games. His role remains unchanged as a high floor WR2.
DeVante Parker has seen at least eight targets in every full game
he’s played. He hasn’t scored since Week 3 (where
he literally scored as time expired) and has mostly been a floor
guy this season, not once displaying any semblance of a ceiling.
The Patriots defense has been much improved as of late and even
with the negative game script, I am not going to predict any sort
of breakout. If Jay Cutler plays, just downgrade Stills. The prospects
of Parker and Landry remain the same.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: Kenyan Drake is the better player, but
Damien Williams is the guy the coaches trust more. Williams has
out-touched and out-snapped Drake in every game since Jay Ajayi
was traded. Drake had looked like the better runner the first
two weeks, but then managed just four yards on seven carries last
week. Williams has aided by one huge run. Otherwise, he did a
whole lot of nothing. With Williams operating as the pass catching
back and the Dolphins projected to trail for the entirety of this
game, Williams is the stronger play this week. Drake is still
an option as well, just a less appealing one.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It happened again last week. We got a Brandin
Cooks explosion. Cooks has been a high floor/high ceiling player
this season, but he’s only flashed the ceiling twice. There
could be a whole lot more to come as he continues to grow more
comfortable with Tom Brady. Brady is currently dealing with a
minor Achilles injury, which will not keep him out of Sunday’s
game, but could lead to some errant throws if it bothers him.
It is not a reason to consider benching Brady though. Rob Gronkowski
missed some practice time with an illness. He will be fine to
play, but his performance has been very un-Gronk-like. While lines
like 4-74 and 4-80 aren’t bad, they are not what we expect
from Gronk. He just hasn’t been that weekly edge at the
position we’ve come to expect. Gronk is always a threat
to score multiple times and post huge yardage totals, but he’s
never been a high receptions guy and Brady is spreading the ball
around more than usual this season. Obviously you are still starting
Gronk. Chris Hogan is going to miss another game so fire up your
Danny Amendolas, assuming he’s fully healthy. He’s
been practicing on a limited basis, so I would expect him to play.
He is coming off his best fantasy day of the season with 8-66-1.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Running Game Thoughts: Rex Burkhead committed the cardinal sin
of fumbling last week. The Patriots recovered it, but the damage
was done. Burkhead was left on the bench for an extended period
of time. He ultimately got back in the game and there is still
a deliberate attempt to use him. Burkhead is a weekly viable flex
play. Dion Lewis is a weekly RB2. He led the backfield in snaps
last week and now has double digit carries in five consecutive
games. Lewis is a capable pass catcher and I don’t want
to say a better runner than Burkhead, but he does things Burkhead
cannot. He and Burkhead form a very effective duo. I say duo because
that’s what this backfield has been reduced to (which is
not a bad thing at all). James White’s role continues to
be scaled back as the team leans more on Lewis and Burkhead. Last
week, White didn’t catch a pass for the first time all season.
Burkhead has better hands than White and can go over the middle
while Lewis is better in the open field. White is a very good
pass catcher, but that’s all he brings to the table while
Burkhead and Lewis are effective runners as well. In a game where
the Patriots are not going to necessarily need White, they likely
will not use him much. His fantasy value is quickly evaporating.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Discussing the Bears passing game reminds
me of how I discussed the Giants running game for the better part
of the last two years. There’s just nothing to discuss.
Not a single member of this passing attack is fantasy viable.
John Fox has no interest in letting Mitch Trubisky throw the ball.
All of their good pass catchers are hurt. Dontrelle Inman is the
only name to even keep floating around. He caught three passes
for a team 43 yards last week. Trubisky only threw for 179 yards.
Do not start anyone on the Bears passing attack.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Running Game Thoughts: Jordan Howard
has been more useful than not this season, but largely volume
dependent. The good news is John Fox does not care about the score
or winning football games. Fox has a strategy for every game scenario.
If the team is leading, pound Howard and sit on the lead. If the
team is trailing, pound Howard and sit on the deficit. What does
that even mean? I have no idea, but I’ve seen Fox do it
enough times to know that he will keep doing it. The Bears will
experience significant negative game script and Howard might be
the worst pass catching RB in NFL history, but the 15 carry floor
should remain.
The Eagles have the league’s best rushing defense, though,
which could be a problem. Perhaps the Bears will utilize Tarik
Cohen a little more. After he burst onto the scene in Weeks 1
and 2, Fox ignored him for the middle of the season before turning
back to him last week where Cohen caught four of six targets for
15 yards and added 44 yards and a touchdown on nine carries. Cohen
is electric and explosive and deserves a 50% snap share. He probably
won’t get it though. Nevertheless, Cohen is back on the
fantasy radar, but I’d be hesitant to use him without seeing
it again.
Value Meter:
RB2: Jordan Howard (low end)
Bench: All other Bears
Passing
Game Thoughts: Carson Wentz was actually stymied for the
entirety of the first half against Dallas last week. He ended
up with season lows in pass attempts (27), completions (14), completion
percentage (51.85%), and passing yards (168). He salvaged his
fantasy day by extending is multi-touchdown streak to six games,
hitting Torrey Smith and later Alshon Jeffery. Wentz wasn’t
asked to do much against a Cowboys team incapable of moving the
ball. He may find himself in a similar boat this week. Regardless,
Wentz has displayed a very high floor and you are not even considering
benching him.
Jeffery scored his fourth touchdown in three games and looks
to have reestablished himself as a WR1. I’m still a bit
skeptical because the yardage and reception counts aren’t
where they were years ago. At minimum, though, Jeffery has solidified
himself as an every week fantasy option. Nelson Agholor, on the
other hand, has not. I absolutely take enjoyment in saying “I
told you so” on Agholor. His early season touchdown barrage
was fluky and unsustainable. In his last three games combined,
Agholor has caught a total of six passes for 60 yards. Last week,
he caught one pass and went backwards. He is the epitome of a
touchdown or bust option. Zach Ertz’s double digit fantasy
point streak came to an end against Dallas, largely because the
game wasn’t close. Ertz has been super reliable all year.
This was just a blip on the radar. He will be fine.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: The Eagles continue to have one of the
league’s best rushing attacks but also continue to have
a fantasy nightmare of a committee. I will say it again on Jay
Ajayi – he is not an every week starter. He played a mere
13 snaps against Dallas. Ajayi has touched the ball exactly eight
times in his first two games with the Eagles. Last week, LeGarrette
Blount carried the ball 13 times and Corey Clement six times.
Even Kenjon Barner touched the ball twice. The Eagles run a true
three-man rotation and have no allegiance to any one player. For
the past two weeks, Clement has been the most valuable option,
but he hasn’t led the team in touches. Blount hasn’t
fallen into the end zone. Ajayi has broken off a big run in each
game. None of those things can be expected to remain consistent
so, unfortunately, you can’t start any of them.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Steelers snapped Tennessee’s four-game
winning streak last by intercepting Marcus Mariota four times
last Thursday night. He did finish with over 300 yards passing
once the garbage time was added in but everyone in the passing
game suffered. Mariota has passed for fewer than two touchdowns
in all but two games this season and can only be considered a
match up based fantasy play at this point. After being burned
early this season, Indy has been better against the pass lately;
yielding less than 18 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks
over the past three weeks. If Mariota isn’t supplementing
his fantasy line with rushing stats, he’s a borderline fantasy
starter. Delanie Walker has re-emerged as the most consistent
pass catcher in this offense with at least eight targets in four
of the past five games. He’s a must start tight end this
week and every week moving forward. On the outside, rookie Corey
Davis has received 17 targets over the past two weeks. With the
Titans putting that much effort into getting him more involved,
fantasy owners will want to keep him in the lineup in what should
be a back and forth game. Meanwhile, Eric Decker has recorded
more than four receptions in only one game this season and can’t
be trusted.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Running Game Thoughts: DeMarco Murray didn’t run well last
week and once again left the door open for Derrick Henry to outplay
him. Routinely not following the open lanes, Murray didn’t
look good on film this week. I don’t think his starting
job is in jeopardy but the leash should be shorter in an important
divisional matchup. Look for Murray to come out motivated against
a Colts defense that has surrendered the fifth most fantasy points
to opposing running backs this season. Tennessee wasn’t
shy about running the ball against the Colts last season and I
expect them to have a similar game plan for this game. Until there
is a real shift in the workload Henry is a boom or bust flex play
for owners in deep formats.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Indianapolis continues to make “getting
by” the theme of their offense (sans Andrew Luck). The Colts
stand at 3-7 and are on the outside of the playoff picture at
this point so effort will be scrutinized down the stretch. Jacoby
Brissett and the Colts tend to be in every game before coming
up short when the final whistle blows. That type of effort has
made a couple of Indy’s players intriguing fantasy options
as we head into Week 12. Plucked of the Patriots roster at the
outset of the season, Brissett has thrown two touchdown passes
in each of the past three games. Even better, he has been effective
enough to allow fantasy owners to deploy T.Y. Hilton and Jack
Doyle almost every week. Doyle is coming off one of his worst
outings of the year-two catches for nine yards-but should rebound
nicely this weekend. The Titans have been one of the ten best
opponents for fantasy tight ends this year and he has solidified
himself as the second-best target with plenty of red zone upside.
The rest of the depth chart behind Hilton gets sketchy quick so
don’t spend too much time trying to mine any fantasy nuggets
from this team.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Running Game Thoughts: Indy isn’t going to scare anyone
with the ageless Frank Gore leading the way, but they continue
to get just enough out of their rushing attack to be a nuisance
for opposing defenses. Gore has been a model of consistency with
at least 16 carries and about 20 touches in each of the Colts’
past three games. He’s not finding the end zone, but he’s
a solid blue collar flex his owners appreciate as the calendar
nears December. He will be in the low end RB2/Flex tier once again
this week and I’d give him the benefit of the doubt in most
comparable cases. Marlon Mack is getting some work within the
offense but it isn’t enough to allow him to be anything
more than insurance to Gore owners.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ryan Fitzpatrick will continue to lead the
way for Tampa after picking up his second win in relief of Jameis
Winston (shoulder). The grizzled vet hasn’t been a great
fantasy option in the twilight of his career but he is doing a
good job at limiting his interceptions with only one in three
games. Mike Evans returned to his typical ball hogging ways by
collecting double-digit targets last week after sitting out Week
10. As one would expect, his catch rate will continue to suffer
but he remains a solid fantasy bet this week with the Bucs likely
to be playing from behind. Tampa has scored the fifth most fantasy
points at the TE position over the past five weeks. That has more
to do with a lack of TE scoring across the NFL than it does with
Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard. Brate hasn’t collected more
than one pass in the past three games while Howard is streaky
as ever. I tend to avoid any and all TE committee situations and
the Bucs’ duo certainly qualifies. DeSean Jackson continues
to knock on the door of being a legit weekly WR3 play but he can’t
quite get over the hump. Unless your team lacks depth at the WR
position, Jackson will be a touchdown dependent fantasy start
against the Falcons.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: Over past three weeks, Atlanta’s
opponents have had better luck running the ball than throwing
the ball. Unfortunately, Tampa Bay has scored the third fewest
fantasy points by running backs over that same stretch making
it difficult to get excited about Doug Martin. It’s not
for a lack of trying because the Bucs have given Martin at least
at least 18 carries in four of the past games. I suspect another
quality workload is in store for the veteran given the issues
surrounding the passing attack. That hasn’t translated into
much production lately, but it does give him a better shot than
most running backs sitting outside the top 25 this week. Martin
put up 96 total yards against the Falcons in his only game against
them last season but he isn’t getting as much work in the
passing game these days. You may not want to but giving a guy
with a solid chance for 20 carries isn’t a bad play as your
RB2 or flex in many formats. Despite the lack of production from
Martin, Tampa Bay has not been inclined to give more work to Jacquizz
Rodgers or Charles Sims so both players carry zero fantasy value
for Week 12.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matt Ryan and the Falcons escaped Seattle
with a huge road win to give their Wild Card prospects a boost.
Despite the victory, Julio Jones owners continue to be disappointed
after the star receiver finished another game without a touchdown.
Matt Ryan was able to look beyond Jones and find success with
Mohamed Sanu. Both players have seen their stock decline with
the team’s scoring down from last season. However, the team
has put up at least 27 points in its last two games and has a
solid match up heading into the weekend. Tampa will try to shut
down Julio-who has scored in three of his past four games against
the Bucs. That will open the door for Sanu to have another opportunity
to put up WR2 numbers this week. He’s a solid start in three-WR
formats but merely an average Flex in leagues using only two WR
slots. Overall, I do not think the passing game will need to do
too much in this game. The good news is that there should be enough
early production from Ryan and company to post decent fantasy
lines in Week 12.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: Devonta Freeman (concussion) missed practice
Wednesday but was limited Thursday. His status for the weekend
remains up in the air. Freeman is said to be feeling fine so he
remains on track to be cleared in time to play Sunday. Be sure
to monitor his status throughout the rest of the weekend just
in case a setback was to keep him sidelined for another week.
Tevin Coleman took on the lead role in Monday’s win but
wasn’t able to find much room against Seattle’s tough
run defense. I don’t think Atlanta will want Freeman handling
the ball twenty times coming off a concussion so Coleman should
see enough work to make him a low-end RB2 even if Freeman suits
up. The Falcons should revert to a more balanced attack against
a Tampa Bay team that should allow more room to run. If Atlanta
is up by a good margin, they will also be more inclined to let
Terron Ward get more work so don’t expect a monster performance
out of any Falcon running back if everyone is healthy.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The one-week Nathan Peterman experiment
was a massive flop so the Bills will be back to Tyrod Taylor in
Week 12, which should give a sigh of relief to fantasy owners
who had been relying on Taylor, one of the league’s better
running quarterbacks for the past few seasons. Taylor played only
a portion of the game in Week 11 but was still able to throw for
158 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers while also adding
38 rushing yards and his third rushing score of the season. Taylor
will be against a bad Kansas City secondary this week which ranks
in the bottom-10 in the league in fantasy points per game on the
season, and that’s after having two excellent games against
the Broncos and Giants recently. The unfortunate thing is that
practically the entire Bills receiving group, including tight
end Charles Clay, are questionable heading into Sunday’s
game against the Chiefs. It’s also worth noting that while
Clay might be active, he has not been very good since coming back
from his injury and he’ll be playing against a Kansas City
defense that has only given up one touchdown to the position.
Rookie Zay Jones, who led the team with four catches for 68 yards
this past week, will likely be the healthiest option, although
none of these players is a particularly tantalizing fantasy option.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Running Game Thoughts: While he’s been frustratingly inconsistent,
LeSean McCoy continues to be an RB1 on the season, especially
after his 126-yard, two total touchdown performance against the
Chargers this past week. Things look to be a little more difficult,
at least on paper, this week as he’ll be running against
a Chiefs defense that ranks in the middle of the pack in fewest
fantasy points given up to opposing running backs, but the silver
lining is that they’ve given up a rushing touchdown in five
straight games while also giving up over 100 rushing yards to
the position in five of their past six contests. The Chiefs are
reeling and could be in for another close game this week, which
would play right into McCoy’s usage, allowing him to be
a quality RB1 option in this contest.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The slide continued for the Chiefs this
past week as they lost to a bad Giants team. It was the first
time this season that the Chiefs failed to score a touchdown,
and much of the blame can be placed on quarterback Alex Smith
who had by far his worst game of the season, throwing for just
230 yards with two interceptions. He’ll look to bounce back
in Week 12 against a Buffalo secondary that has been quite stingy
against opposing quarterbacks, having given up just one 20-point
day to the position all season. Of course, much of that has been
because their run defense has been terrible and opposing teams
haven’t needed to pass much, but the fact still remains
that opposing quarterbacks haven’t been putting up great
fantasy numbers against them.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
This looks like another game where a quarterback might not need
to pass much as the Chiefs will likely look to lean heavily on
their running game, limiting Smith’s value to a solid floor,
but low-ceiling QB1. The nice thing about the Kansas City offense
is that we know who he’s going to throw the ball to - that
being tight end Travis Kelce and top receiver Tyreek Hill. Kelce
is running away as the top tight end in fantasy football for the
second straight season and he’s scored a touchdown and/or
had over 100 receiving yards in four straight contests, making
him one of the best options on the board even when the Chiefs
are struggling offensively. Meanwhile Hill continues to establish
himself as a breakout receiver despite some off-and-on production.
The Bills have given up the ninth-most receiving yards to opposing
wide receivers this season and without another viable receiver
in the offense, Hill figures to benefit from what should be a
good matchup.
Running Game Thoughts: Frustrations continue to mount for fantasy
owners of Kareem Hunt, who burst onto the scene earlier this season
as by far and away the early-season fantasy MVP but who has struggled
to even produce RB2 numbers in a number of games since. Hunt has
now failed to score a touchdown in seven straight games. While
those numbers are startling for running back, the one constant
has been that Hunt continues to see plenty of touches. He hasn’t
had fewer than 13 touches in any game this season and he’s
only had fewer than three catches once, making him one of the
highest floor running backs in the league, especially in PPR formats.
Hunt has had some great matchups along the way which should make
fantasy owners a bit weary of overvaluing him heading into what,
on paper, looks to be another excellent matchup, but we’re
all waiting for another breakout performance. Hunt himself doesn’t
necessarily look bad on film, so the potential for another huge
game is certainly there against the Bills, who have given up the
second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season
and who have given up an incredible nine rushing touchdowns over
just their past three games. Buffalo is in a full on free fall
defensively and this looks like the ideal matchup for Hunt to
finally get back to being the elite RB1 that we saw him be earlier
this season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After giving the starting job to Trevor
Siemian and then bringing back Brock Osweiler to start, it’s
hard to believe that the Broncos have any confidence whatsoever
in their Week 12 starter, Paxton Lynch. Lynch has been one of
the most highly scrutinized early-round quarterback selections
in recent memory and this will be the first time we’ll have
a chance to see him get significant, meaningful playing time.
While a road division game is always a tough place to start, a
matchup against the weak Oakland secondary would seem to cushion
what might otherwise be a dangerous situation. Denver’s
passing game has been atrocious for most of the season and while
their top two targets - Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders
- have been performing relatively well, neither player is a strong
play for now, at least until we can see what Lynch brings to the
table. Thomas has scored touchdowns in three straight games after
a long stretch of not scoring any touchdowns, further proving
how fluky touchdowns can be at the wide receiver position, but
don’t bank on him getting into the end zone again this week.
Sanders is dealing with an ankle injury but did practice on Thursday
and is expected to be ready to go on Sunday, barring any setback.
OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: C.J. Anderson got into the end zone for
just the second time all season this past week in the Broncos’
home loss to the Bengals, but he rushed for fewer than 3.0 yards
per carry on the day and has simply not been a productive runner
this season. There is always the chance of a short yardage goal
line carry but banking on Anderson as anything more than a Flex
option is pretty risky at this point. The player to keep an eye
on in this backfield is actually Devontae Booker who finally significantly
out-snapped Anderson for the first time this season in Week 11,
and was substantially more productive with his touches as he was
able to make some nice plays in the passing game. Booker would
seem to be a better fantasy option, especially in PPR formats,
than Anderson at this point, but they’re likely to again
split carries in what could be a murky backfield. The one positive
is that the Raiders have been horrible at defending opposing running
games this season so there should be at least some production
that comes out of this backfield. Bet on Booker if you have the
choice but both are fine Flex plays here in Week 12.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Derek Carr of 2016 seems to be a distant
memory at this point as the young quarterback has now failed to
exceed 15 fantasy points in six of his past seven starts. Even
this past week, in what might be the best possible matchup at
home against New England, Carr threw for just 237 yards, one score
and an interception. His struggles have, of course, transferred
over to his pass catching options, specifically Amari Cooper who
did catch Carr’s only touchdown pass this past week but
has been held to WR2 or worse numbers in every game this season
aside from the one huge performance against Kansas City.
While the Denver secondary does not look like the unit it was
in recent years, they’re still certainly capable of locking
down opposing passing games. They did so earlier this season when
they held the Raiders to just 249 passing yards and one touchdown
back in Week 4. Crabtree does have the target share to justify
being a WR2 but Cooper is nothing more than a boom-or-bust Flex
option. Carr should be on fantasy benches this week in what looks
to be a difficult matchup. A player in this passing game who should
be in fantasy lineups this week is tight end Jared Cook who gets
an excellent matchup against a Broncos defense that has given
up the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends so far
this season. Cook himself has been inconsistent but he does have
a pair of 100-plus yard days over his past four games and he has
one of the higher ceilings at the overall weak tight end position
this week.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Running Game Thoughts: Game script hasn’t been kind to
Marshawn Lynch this season but a matchup against a struggling
Denver team with Paxton Lynch at quarterback would seem to be
a recipe for a heavy dose of Lynch and the Oakland running game.
Lynch doesn’t have the burst that he once did but he’s
still one of the most powerful backs in the league which could
be difficult on the Denver defense. While the Broncos have been
good against the run this season, they’ve also had some
major struggles as of late, including getting absolutely humiliated
by both the Patriots and Eagles running games. Don’t look
for Lynch to do that type of damage but a 15-to-20 carry day for
70-plus yards and a decent chance at a touchdown seems like a
realistic outlook for the veteran.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s hard to believe that Drew Brees
might no longer be considered an elite fantasy option, but that’s
the point we’re at. With the Saints shockingly having one
of the league’s better defensive units, the offense has
been able to pound the rock with the running game, leading to
substantially fewer pass attempts per game for Brees and that
alone has been the culprit for his weakened, but still solid,
fantasy production. Brees finally had another big performance
this past week, however, as he threw for 385 yards and a pair
of touchdown passes, with one interception, against the Redskins
in what ended up being a high-scoring contest.
We could be in for another game like that as the Saints will
face one of the league’s most productive offenses, the Los
Angeles Rams. The Rams have, themselves, been excellent against
opposing quarterbacks this season as they’ve given up the
fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position along with only three
games where the opposing quarterback has thrown for more than
one touchdown pass. Brees has always been a player who’s
able to overcome difficult matchups and still produce fantasy
points so we shouldn’t be overly concerned about the matchup
but there is some concern that the Rams are quite bad against
the run and the Saints could again end up relying on their running
game. Thus Brees moves from being a top-five option at the position
down to more of a mid-level QB1. The nice thing is that Brees
does seem to key in on his top target, Michael Thomas, who himself
should be considered a WR1 despite having not scored a touchdown
since Week 4.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Running Game Thoughts: The ridiculous breakout performances of
the New Orleans running game continued this past week as Mark
Ingram and Alvin Kamara are now both top-five running backs on
the season in PPR formats. Kamara, the pass catching specialist,
has caught at least three passes in every game this season and
he has an impressive 17 grabs over his past three contests. Meanwhile,
Ingram sits atop the league, tied with Todd Gurley with eight
rushing touchdowns on the season and he’s fourth in rushing
yardage. This duo will now face a Los Angeles Rams run defense
that has given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running
backs this season. The Rams got ran all over by the Vikings this
past week and that could very well happen again in Week 12. It’s
rare to see a backfield where two players are viable weekly starters,
let alone RB1’s, but that’s what the Saints have been
able to accomplish. Deploy both Ingram and Kamara - even in non-PPR
leagues - as RB1s this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After a shockingly great start to the season,
Rams quarterback Jared Goff came crashing back down this past
week in a tough road game against a good Vikings defense. The
Rams were blown out in that loss, which typically means some garbage
time fantasy production, but even that didn’t happen as
Goff was held without a touchdown for just the second time all
year. Now with top receiver Robert Woods out with a shoulder injury,
things are looking a little shaky for this passing game going
into a potentially difficult matchup against the Saints. The Saints
have held opposing quarterbacks to 15 or fewer fantasy points
in all but three games this season and while Goff has been very
good, without Woods, it’s tough to trust him as anything
other than a high-end QB2 in two-quarterback formats. With Woods
out, it would seem to make sense that Sammy Watkins would become
the top receiving option in this passing game, but that might
not be the case. Instead, look for Cooper Kupp to step up and
continue to build on the back-to-back six catch performances he’s
had leading into this game. Kupp is a PPR-only option but he’s
appealing in this matchup. Note that Saints DB Marshon Lattimore
may miss this game with an ankle injury which would weaken the
promising Saints secondary.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: Todd Gurley continues to produce huge
fantasy numbers this season and he is now the top-scoring running
back in fantasy football. While the rushing yardage has been down
over his past three games, Gurley continues to produce in the
passing game and he’s tied with Mark Ingram, leading the
league with eight rushing touchdowns on the season. The Saints
rank middle-of-the-pack against the run which should give fantasy
owners plenty of confidence in rolling out Gurley yet again as
one of the top overall fantasy options on the board here in Week
12.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s a great matchup against the Cardinals
defense for Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville Jaguars passing
game here in Week 12, but don’t get too excited –
it’s still Blake Bortles. The Jaguars QB has only thrown
for 300 yards once this season and he’s only thrown more
than one touchdown in a game once. There’s just not enough
volume in this passing game to justify considering Bortles or
most of these Jacksonville pass catchers. Dede Westbrook made
his debut this past week, catching three passes for 35 yards.
He may have value down the stretch, but for now the only real
fantasy-worthy player in this passing game is Marqise Lee. Lee
has been by far the Jaguars’ most effective receiver this
season and has caught at least four passes in five straight contests.
Unfortunately, he’ll likely be shadowed by cornerback Patrick
Peterson who could effectively make him a non-factor in this contest.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: As surprisingly good as the Jaguars have
been this season, the only player in the Jacksonville offense
who fantasy owners should be excited about starting is running
back Leonard Fournette. While he continues to deal with an ankle
injury and has himself admitted that he won’t likely be
back to 100-percent until the offseason, Fournette trots forward
as one of the best fantasy running backs in the league. Even after
missing two games, Fournette ranks as an RB1 on the season and
he’s topped 100 rushing yards in three of his past four
contests while getting over 20 carries in each of those performances.
The high usage makes Fournette a strong play in any game but especially
against a struggling Arizona defense that just gave up a gigantic
fantasy day to D’Onta Foreman, Lamar Miller and the Houston
backfield this past week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: A three touchdown performance has secured
Blaine Gabbert another week as the Cardinals starting quarterback
despite the fact that he also threw two interceptions in Arizona’s
Week 11 loss to the Texans. Unfortunately for him and everyone
in this Arizona passing game, the Jaguars are not the same secondary
as the one in Houston. While the Texans now rank dead last in
the league in fantasy points given up to opposing quarterbacks,
the Jaguars are all the way at the other end as the very best
fantasy defense against opposing QBs. Jacksonville has given up
just seven total passing touchdowns on the season while intercepting
13 passes. Needless to say, this is not a time to be trusting
Gabbert. The only player in this passing game who should even
be remotely on fantasy radars is wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald,
who is primarily playing out of the slot these days which should
allow him to avoid cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye for
most of the afternoon. Fitzgerald has continued to produce even
with the revolving door at quarterback in Arizona and while he’s
unlikely to have a big game due to the overall poor production
of the Arizona offense, he could very well pull in seven or more
receptions, making him a decent enough WR2 in PPR formats.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Running Game Thoughts: It’s been entirely boom or bust
for running back Adrian Peterson since joining the Cardinals as
the veteran tailback has either rushed for over 130 yards or under
30 yards in all five of his games as a Cardinal. Now facing the
league’s top overall defense, it seems a lot more likely
that Peterson will finish on the low end of that spectrum versus
the high end. If the Cardinals can at least keep this game close
on the scoreboard, however, there should be some touches for Peterson
who has seen at least 15 touches in four of his five games as
a member of the Cardinals. That alone makes him a viable RB2 option,
at least in non-PPR formats.
Passing
Game Thoughts: A matchup with any 49ers quarterback in
recent memory against the Seahawks has not been ideal –
and there's plenty to be concerned about with C.J. Beathard behind
center, but there's at least some reason to be optimistic that
some fantasy production might come in this game now that the Seahawks
secondary is as banged up as it is. Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor
will be out and Earl Thomas is not at 100-percent, thus the "Legion
of Boom" is nowhere near its usual self. In fact, it's now
reasonable to say the defensive secondary is a major spot of concern.
Beathard himself is still a low-end QB2 at best but the hope comes
in the form of wide receiver Marquise Goodwin who has become the
defacto top receiver in San Francisco now that Pierre Garcon is
out of the season. Goodwin hasn't caught more than five passes
in any game this season but he's one of the league's most dangerous
deep threats and is a touchdown threat anytime the ball is in
the air and headed his direction. Goodwin is at best a flex option
and he's one of the biggest potential busts, but he also has the
chance to put up over 100 yards and a touchdown in this game.
Consider him if you fell far behind after Thursday's games and
are in need of a big game to make up for it.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Running Game Thoughts: The San Francisco offense is terrible
as a whole but the one player from it who has made fantasy owners
happy this season is running back Carlos Hyde. Hyde's high usage
continues to make him a solid RB1 most weeks and he's being used
more than ever before in the passing game as he has quietly become
one of the better high-floor PPR options on a week-to-week basis.
With Seattle reeling defensively, this might be a more competitive
game than we would've assumed just a few weeks ago, and that certainly
works in Hyde's favor. He rushed for a season-high 124 yards against
the Seahawks back in Week 2 and there's really no reason to think
that he won't again be the focal point of the offense.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It should come as no surprise that the more
Seattle relies on their superstar quarterback, the more they produce
offensively. Russell Wilson has now taken over as the top-scoring
fantasy quarterback in most formats and he's thrown for multiple
touchdowns in seven of his past eight games. He's also been more
efficient running the ball than he was a season ago, thus adding
to his already high floor. While he struggled a bit against them
earlier this season, Wilson is a no-brainer QB1 in this matchup
against the 49ers. His top receiver, Doug Baldwin, has also been
great as of late as he's finished with double-digit PPR fantasy
points in five straight games. But the player who fantasy owners
have been most excited about is tight end Jimmy Graham who is
having a return to fantasy dominance this season. Graham has scored
a whopping seven receiving touchdowns over his past six games
and his usage seems to go up each and every week. Graham is locked
in as an elite fantasy option right now, but it is worth considering
that he was held to just one catch for one yard – by far
his worst game of the season – when these teams squared
off in Week 2.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Running Game Thoughts: With Thomas Rawls being a healthy scratch
this past week, the already confusing Seattle running just keeps
getting worse. The team now has five players who could potentially
touch the ball at running back, depending on who's active –
J.D. McKissic, Thomas Rawls, Eddie Lacy and Mike Davis. It's a
true nightmare fantasy situation and one that should absolutely
not be trusted, even against the league's worst fantasy defense
against running backs – yeah, it's that bad. McKissic would
seem to be the player most likely to get the most carries in this
backfield but Pete Carroll just will not give us anything to go
off of. It's anyone's guess as to who will lead this backfield
in Week 12 and even then, the Seahawks are the only team all season
who haven't scored 20 PPR points as a running back unit against
the 49ers. Chances are that they'll make it two for two in bad
performances, thus completely wasting this amazing matchup.