Packers at Seahawks
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: 2013 was
a bit of a lost season for former NFL league MVP Aaron Rodgers,
who for all intents and purposes missed half of the regular season
with an injury. Rodgers did return in Week 17 and even played
in the team’s lone playoff game, but he was clearly not
100-percent when he stepped back on the field. Now with an entire
offseason to get healthy and prepare for the 2014 season, Rodgers
looks poised for another monster season in Green Bay. Wide receiver
James Jones, who led the league with 12 touchdown receptions in
2012, is now off in Oakland, but the team’s top two receivers
- Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb - flew off most fantasy draft
boards within the first few rounds. This is a dynamic passing
offense built on efficiency which is why Rodgers is the owner
of the best career touchdown-to-interception ratio of any player
in the history of the league...and no one is really even close.
Rodgers’ incredible ability to make plays, especially in
the red zone, makes him a must-start no matter the opponent. There
were many drafts this offseason where Rodgers was the first quarterback
that came off the board, and for good reason. While Peyton Manning
is coming off of the best season of any quarterback ever, Rodgers
is the younger player who arguably has the higher ceiling, especially
considering that he also contributes on the ground.
Although fantasy owners should not consider benching Rodgers
against any opponent at the moment, if there were one defense
to be a bit worried about, it would certainly be that of the Seattle
Seahawks. Seattle’s secondary turned in one of the greatest
seasons we have seen in recent memory this past year, as they
allowed just 15 touchdowns against them over the course of the
regular season while intercepting a league-most 28 passes. Brandon
Browner, who missed eight games in 2013, is now in New England,
but the core of the Seattle secondary remains; including safeties
Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas, along with the league’s
top cornerback Richard Sherman. History is not in the Packers’
quarterback’s favor as the only time Rodgers has faced a
Pete Carroll defense in the NFL was back in 2010 when the unit
wasn’t nearly as good as it is now and they still held him
to just 223 yards and no touchdowns. You certainly don’t
draft a player like Aaron Rodgers to sit him down in Week 1, but
those playing weekly fantasy football games would be wise to look
elsewhere for production on opening weekend. Seattle’s defense
is a scary unit capable of limiting even the best of offenses,
as we saw in Super Bowl XL.
Running Game Thoughts: An excellent
rookie year from Green Bay Packers running back Eddie Lacy has
the hype train in full motion as we start the 2014 NFL season.
Lacy’s 1,300-plus total yards and 11 total touchdowns made
him a top five pick in most drafts, but it’s his potential
as one of the few remaining “bell cow” running backs
in the league that makes him even more exciting. While many of
Lacy’s best games came when the team was relying heavily
on him due to the injury to Rodgers, the reality is that a healthy
Rodgers return can really only serve to the team more opportunities
to score overall, meaning an added touchdown probability for Lacy.
The total number of touches (319 in 2013) might actual go down
this season, but that shouldn’t dissuade fantasy owners
from trusting him, because the quality of those touches should
get better, making Lacy as close of a lock to being a top-10 fantasy
back this season as any player in the league.
With the Seattle secondary being the stars of the team, it’s
might come as a bit of a surprise that the Seahawks were also
excellent against the run during their Super Bowl winning season
of 2013. The unit allowed fewer than 3.8 yards per carry throughout
the year and a total of just five touchdowns to opposing running
backs for the entire season. Worse yet, the team held opposing
running backs to fewer than 50 rushing yards in half of their
games. Still, even given this chilling statline, running the ball
might be Green Bay’s best chance to win the opening game
of 2014. Seattle loves to control the ball and the clock and I
would expect to see quite a few draw plays to Lacy as the Packers
try to spread this Seattle defense out before cramming the ball
down their throats. If they can consistently move the ball on
the ground and pick up first downs, the “12th Man”
may be at least partially negated. Look for Lacy to touch the
ball over 20 times on opening night, which makes him a must-start
even in a tough matchup.
Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Eddie Lacy: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Jordy Nelson: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Randall Cobb: 55 rec yds
Jarrett Boykin: 30 rec yds
Richard Rodgers: 25 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Having spent his first two seasons as the
league’s most efficient game manager, many are predicting
a breakout season for Super Bowl XL-winning quarterback Russell
Wilson. Since Wilson entered the league, no team has passed fewer
times or run more times than Seattle. Even given that horrifying
statistic, Wilson has finished as a borderline top-10 fantasy
quarterback in each season. Wilson’s 52-to-19 touchdown-to-interception
ratio is immaculate and he is also one of the league’s best
runners from the quarterback position, having rushed for over
1,000 yards and five scores in his two years as Seattle’s
signal caller. While his former favorite target Golden Tate is
now in Detroit, Wilson should now have an opportunity to pass
to one of the league’s most dynamic playmakers in Percy
Harvin, who essentially missed the entire 2013 regular season.
While Harvin is always a risk to go down with another injury,
when he is on the field, there is no question that he can make
even a bad quarterback look good at times. Wilson will look to
Harvin early and often, and could establish one of the league’s
finest passing combinations this season. Even if Harvin does get
hurt, Wilson has proven that he does not need premiere wide receivers
in order to put up solid, efficient numbers. I look for him to
pass more times than he ever has this season as Seattle looks
to become a more balanced offense.
On the defensive side of the ball, Green Bay could be in some
serious trouble in this matchup. While it’s a new season
and the team has made some personnel changes, the Packers were
awful against the pass in 2013. Opposing quarterbacks threw for
at least 200 yards against them in all but three games and the
Packers conceded two or more passing touchdowns in 11 of their
16 games, including five straight to close out the regular season.
While the Green Bay secondary itself does have some talented players,
there may not be a player on the team who is capable of keeping
up with a healthy Percy Harvin. All reports are that Harvin is
healthy and looking great heading into this opening game, so his
connection with Russell Wilson and his overall usage in the offense
will be the focal point of our fantasy attention in this game.
If Harvin is able to shake off the rust of essentially missing
an entire season, look for him to be a huge weapon for Wilson,
even in Week 1. Wilson may only be a low-end QB1 option for this
game and Harvin is a risky WR2 with a high potential, but Seattle’s
offense as a whole should do fairly well in this contest.
Running Game Thoughts: Since coming
to Seattle midway through the 2010 season, few players have been
more productive from a fantasy standpoint than running back Marshawn
Lynch. Lynch has scored double-digit touchdowns in each of his
three full seasons in Seattle, including a career-high 14 scores
with nearly 1,600 total yards in 2013. At 28 years old and with
nearly 2,000 pro touches on his body, some fantasy experts are
predicting that “Beast Mode” may be in for a slide
in 2013. Russell Wilson will almost certainly be trusted to pass
more this season, the Seattle offensive line is still a makeshift
unit and the emergence of young backs like Christine Michael have
to give us some hesitation about his long-term outlook as an elite
RB. But in Week 1, Lynch remains a rock solid RB1 for fantasy
purposes. Try not to let the fantasy pundits concern you at this
time. Until we see fantasy outputs that tell us otherwise, there
is little reason to be worried and Lynch should be in any and
all fantasy lineups.
If you do have worries about Lynch heading into the season, allow
the following numbers to help alleviate that stress for at least
one week. In the final nine games of the regular season, opposing
teams’ running backs averaged 146 yards on the ground and
scored nine rushing touchdowns against the Packers defense. While
the addition of Julius Peppers may give this defense a bit of
an increase in pass-rushing, the loss of nose tackle B.J. Raji
to a season-ending biceps tear may be one of the most under-the-radar,
yet devastating blows that any team has suffered so far this season.
Former Minnesota Vikings defensive tackle Letroy Guion will step
in for Raji, playing a new position on a defense that does not
have great personnel around him on the defensive line. Guion will
be responsible for clogging up the middle of the defense, which
is where Lynch primarily makes his money as grind-it-out runner.
The Packers’ ability to slow down Lynch rests very heavily
on whether or not Guion, whom we’ve only seen play a few
snaps at the position in the preseason, can at least be serviceable
in his new role. If he struggles, look for Lynch to crack 100
yards on the ground and have a great shot to get into the end
zone in what could end up being a fairly typical Seattle Seahawks
victory at home.
Projections:
Russell Wilson: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 25 rush yds
Marshawn Lynch: 90 rush yds, 2 TD, 10 rec yds
Robert Turbin: 20 rush yds
Percy Harvin: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Doug Baldwin: 50 rec yds
Jermaine Kearse: 40 rec yds
Zach Miller: 30 rec yds
Prediction: Seahawks 27, Packers
20 ^ Top
Vikings @ Rams
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Despite drafting
the perceived “quarterback of the future” in Teddy
Bridgewater this April, the Minnesota Vikings will head into the
2014 NFL season with Matt Cassel behind center. The veteran signal-caller
started a total of six games for the Vikings in 2013, including
each of the final four games of the season. While his numbers
were less-than-stellar, he is likely the safer choice for the
Vikings to start the season with, as Bridgewater continues to
learn the offense on the sidelines. One player who is excited
to have Cassel back is second-year receiver Cordarrelle Patterson.
Patterson is a big-time playmaker who scored three touchdowns
in the final four games of the season; all of which were thrown
to him by Cassel. A new offense under the direction of Norv Turner
should also mean good things for tight end Kyle Rudolph. Turner
has been known to get excellent production out of the tight end
position, including Antonio Gates and Jordan Cameron. Look for
Rudolph to step up his production in the Vikings offense and possibly
threaten to become a top-five fantasy tight end this season.
In Week 1, Matt Cassel and the Vikings will have their hands
full against one of the league’s most underrated defenses,
the St. Louis Rams. The Rams defensive line is one of the best
in the league, particularly when it comes to getting after the
quarterback. Robert Quinn turned in a monster season with 19 sacks
in 2013 and he only seems to be getting better. This pass rush
was the primary reason that St. Louis finished inside the top-10
in terms of fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks
in 2013. The defense allowed more than two passing touchdowns
just one time over the course of the entire season. Although Cassel
cannot be forgotten about, this doesn’t seem like a great
recipe for big fantasy numbers in Week 1.
Running Game Thoughts: Another year, another top five fantasy
selection for Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson. Peterson
has fully cemented himself as a staple of fantasy football championship
squads and there is no reason he won’t continue that production.
Peterson has finished with over 1,200 rushing yards in six of
his first seven years as a pro. The only season he didn’t
reach that number was 2011 when he missed four games due to injury.
In addition to the rushing yardage, Peterson has also been a fantasy
superstar due to his uncanny ability to get into the end zone.
He has scored double-digit touchdowns in every year of his career
and looks like as good of a bet as anyone to repeat that in 2014.
If there has been one thing that fantasy owners have been missing
from Peterson, it has been production in the passing game. While
he’s not terrible in that area, Peterson has not regularly
produced at a high level as a pass-catcher like many of the other
top running backs do. Fortunately for fantasy owners, the new
Norv Turner offense may actually increase Peterson’s production
in the receiving game. He’ll likely never be a 60-catch
per season type of player, but if he can reach 45, he will give
fantasy owners something extra to be excited about this season.
As good as St. Louis was against the pass in 2013, they were
equally as bad against the run. The team conceded nearly 1,500
rushing yards against them on the year and a total of 20 touchdowns
to opposing running backs on the season. Needless to say, this
should make fantasy owners of Peterson very happy as we head into
Week 1. Given the lack of firepower on the St. Louis side of the
ball, Minnesota should have an opportunity to run the ball plenty
of times, which should mean 20-25 touches for Peterson. Even if
St. Louis knows it’s coming, it’s tough to stop. Peterson
is almost always a reliable RB1 for fantasy purposes, but this
week is particularly delicious. He’s one of the strongest
fantasy plays in the league this week and should be started in
all scoring formats.
Projections:
Matt Cassel: 175 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Adrian Peterson: 110 rush yds, 2 TD, 20 rec yds
Cordarrelle Patterson: 70 rec yds
Greg Jennings: 30 rec yds
Kyle Rudolph: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: An unfortunate preseason injury has cost
former No. 1 overall pick Sam Bradford his entire season, leaving
the Rams in a tough situation at the quarterback position for
the second straight year. The team will now turn to veteran signal
caller Shaun Hill for the 2013 season. Hill, who hasn’t
started a game since the 2010 season as a member of the Detroit
Lions, does not exactly inspire fantasy owners’ faith in
this offense, particularly the passing game itself. This hodgepodge
group of receivers is underwhelming, especially given the lack
of production that we saw from 2013 first round NFL draft pick
Tavon Austin. We really don’t know who is going to step
up - if anyone. As crazy as it might sound, one player to look
out for in Week 1 is former Tennessee Titans receiver Kenny Britt.
Britt, who had an awful end to his tenure in Tennessee, has been
reunited with the coach who drafted him in Jeff Fisher, and has
been the only receiver who has consistently ran with the No. 1
offense this offseason. Britt has the physical capability to return
to fantasy relevance, but he will really need to put his mind
to it. Try to avoid trusting anyone in this passing game for Week
1, but make sure that you pay attention to how Shaun Hill opts
to ration out the targets. It could give us great insight going
forward.
Running Game Thoughts: If there’s one player who fantasy
owners will be relying on in this St. Louis offense, it’s
second-year running back Zac Stacy. After being buried on the
depth chart early in 2013, Stacy broke out and finished the season
as a top-10 fantasy running back over the final 12 games of the
year. Now firmly locked in as the feature back, Stacy will look
to pick up where he left off a season ago. He’ll have an
opportunity for a big game in Week 1 as he and the Rams host a
Minnesota Vikings defense that conceded the eighth-most fantasy
points to opposing running backs in 2013. They gave up nearly
1,400 rushing yards over the course of the season while also giving
up a total of 16 touchdowns to the running back position on the
year. Jeff Fisher is known for feeding his running backs and this
game looks like a recipe for plenty of touches for Stacy. As long
as the Rams offense can keep them in this game, there’s
no reason to think that Stacy won’t see 20-25 touches, which
makes him a must-start for those who drafted him.
Projections:
Shaun Hill: 170 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Zac Stacy: 90 rush yds, 2 TD, 10 rec yds
Kenny Britt: 50 rush yds
Tavon Austin: 45 rec yds
Chris Givens: 40 rec yds
Jared Cook: 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Rams 27, Vikings 24 ^ Top
Chargers at Cardinals
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: It was a
rough two years from 2011 through 2012 for the Chargers’
Philip Rivers. In fact, after compiling just an 88.6 QB rating
over those two seasons, rumblings of a potential replacement for
the former Pro Bowler had started entering the 2013 season. But
a new offense put together by offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt
revitalized what was a sinking career, as Rivers threw for nearly
4,500 yards and 32 touchdowns with only 11 interceptions despite
the lack of options he had in the receiving game. Fantasy owners
have certainly taken notice of Rivers’ bounceback season,
but appear to be largely skeptical that he can do it again as
Whisenhunt has now departed San Diego for a head-coaching job
with the Tennessee Titans. The team has since promoted quarterbacks
coach Frank Reich to the offensive coordinator role which should
mean that the offense remains relatively similar to what it was
in 2013, but there is little question that second-year wide receiver
Keenan Allen will need to take the next step forward and become
a top-10 pass-catcher if this team hopes to repeat its offensive
successes from a season ago. Allen, a third-round pick in 2013,
enters the season as the Chargers’ only truly reliable wide
receiver. Malcom Floyd will be making his return to the field
in Week 1 after missing almost the entire 2013 season with a spinal
cord injury and Eddie Royal is a veteran who can contribute from
time to time, but neither player offers much in the way of fantasy
value at this point in the season.
While Allen may be the team’s top receiving option for
the season, one of the sneaky fantasy plays for Week 1 actually
comes from the tight end position. The Chargers will be up against
an Arizona Cardinals defense that played well overall in 2013,
but were absolutely atrocious against opposing tight ends. The
Arizona defense allowed the most catches (97), most yards (1,227)
and most touchdowns (17) to opposing tight ends in 2013. Yes,
they were that bad. This could mean great things for the duo of
Antonio Gates and up-and-comer Ladarius Green who could exploit
this depleted defense. The hype is certainly strong for Green,
who has shown flashes of brilliance throughout his short NFL career,
but Gates remains the team’s every down tight end for the
foreseeable future. He may be slowing down at 34 years old, but
as shown by the 872 yards he put up in 2013, he can still hurt
defenses. Look for both players to be targeted this week in what
might be the best matchup they get all season.
Running Game Thoughts: Along with the resurgence of Philip Rivers
came perhaps the coming out party for former first round NFL draft
pick Ryan Mathews, who finally lived up to expectations with a
productive season where he actually played in every game. The
fifth-year player comes into the 2014 season as the team’s
top back on the depth chart, but that doesn’t mean that
third down back Danny Woodhead doesn’t have value. While
Woodhead didn’t see double-digit carries in any game a season
ago, he was within five-to-nine carries in all but one game (Week
1). Not only that, but Woodhead established himself as one of
the game’s elite points-per-reception running back options
out of the backfield as he caught 76 passes; good for second-most
among all players at the position in 2013. The addition of former
Indianapolis Colts running back Donald Brown has some fantasy
owners scratching their heads, but all reports seem to be that
he will be used sparingly early in the season and is primarily
an insurance policy for Mathews, who has dealt with countless
injuries in the past.
Whether it’s Mathews, Woodhead or Brown who touch the ball,
though, this Week 1 matchup against the Arizona Cardinals is not
going to be an easy one. The Cardinals allowed the fewest fantasy
points to opposing running backs of any team in 2013. In fact,
they were the only defense that allowed fewer than 1,000 rushing
yards to the position on the year, while also allowing only four
rushing touchdowns all season. Those looking for some optimism,
however, can point to the fact that this Cardinals defense is
a significantly more depleted than the one that crushed opposing
runners a season ago. Darnell Dockett’s torn ACL could very
well change the entire Arizona defense and that should mean more
opportunities for running backs to put up some fantasy numbers
against them. This is still a tough defense no matter how you
slice it, but there is hope if Mathews can get 10 or more carries
and possibly a goal line carry or two.
Projections:
Philip Rivers: 280 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Ryan Mathews: 50 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Danny Woodhead: 20 rush yds, 40 rec yds
Keenan Allen: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Malcom Floyd: 40 rec yds
Eddie Royal: 25 rec yds
Antonio Gates: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Ladarius Green: 30 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: While the arm is still there, former No.
1 overall NFL draft pick Carson Palmer’s decision-making
has been in question for quite a few seasons now. Since 2010,
Palmer has thrown 72 interceptions with only touchdowns as a member
of the Bengals, Raiders and now Cardinals. While his 4,274 passing
yards were a career high, Palmer himself cannot be relied on as
a reliable week-to-week fantasy quarterback. That doesn’t
mean, however, that he can’t make his receivers fantasy
relevant. After a disappointing 2012 season where he failed to
reach 800 receiving yards and scored only four touchdowns, Larry
Fitzgerald bounced back in 2013 with Palmer at the helm, making
10 touchdown receptions while adding 954 yards receiving. Fitzgerald
showed that he still has the skills to be at least a WR2 in fantasy
football, but he still has the potential to be a WR1 if he can
get a little more consistency from his quarterback. In addition
to Fitzgerald’s resurgence was a breakout season for former
first round NFL draft pick Michael Floyd, who led the team with
1,041 receiving yards and added five touchdowns of his own. Floyd,
a big-bodied receiver with an incredibly high ceiling, has been
the favorite target for Palmer as he looks deep in the vertical-attacking
Bruce Arians offense. Both Fitzgerald and Floyd should be looked
at as startable fantasy wide receivers in Week 1 as they go up
against a San Diego Chargers secondary that was terrible against
opposing wide receivers a season ago. The Chargers allowed at
least 13 points (standard-scoring) to opposing wide receivers
in 15 of their 16 games in 2013, with the only exception being
the horrible Oakland Raiders receivers. With running back Andre
Ellington hobbled with a foot injury, look for the Cardinals to
come out throwing, which should mean good things for this dynamic
wide receiver duo.
Running Game Thoughts: With Rashard Mendenhall now retired, the
Cardinals have fully invested themselves in second-year running
back Andre Ellington. Ellington, who broke the 1,000 total yard
barrier despite starting only one game for the team in his rookie
season, possesses dynamic playmaking ability from the running
back position, especially in the passing game. The biggest question
about Ellington doesn’t seem to be his skills, but rather
his ability to stay healthy. He missed time due to injuries in
college at Clemson and has been bothered by a foot injury this
preseason which required an MRI on Thursday. The tests won’t
be back until Saturday so fantasy owners will have to wait and
see what the results are before making a lineup decision this
weekend. The Cardinals do play on Monday night, which could end
up creating a frustrating situation, as he may very well be listed
as “questionable” even if the results come back negative.
The foot injury may be enough for some fantasy owners to sit him,
but if he does play and is not significantly hobbled by the injury,
this could be a nice matchup for him in his first start of the
2014 season. While the Chargers started off 2013 with seven straight
games without allowing a rushing touchdown, the car came off the
track in the team’s final nine games as opposing running
backs gashed them for an average of 93 yards rushing while scoring
a total of 12 rushing touchdowns. If Ellington is unable to play,
look for the team to cycle through a few backs, thus making none
of them a particularly tantalizing fantasy option for Week 1.
Jonathan Dwyer would likely get the majority of work on first
and second down, while Robert Hughes and Stepfan Taylor could
see work in certain situations.
Projections:
Carson Palmer: 240 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Andre Ellington: 50 rush yds, 40 rec yds
Michael Floyd: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Larry Fitzgerald: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
John Carlson: 30 rec yds
Prediction: Cardinals 20, Chargers 17 ^ Top
Titans at Chiefs
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: After being
considered a bust by many NFL analysts heading into the 2013 season,
former first round draft pick Jake Locker started the season on
fire, leading the Titans to a 3-1 record while tossing six touchdowns
and no interceptions. Then came another injury. Locker, who has
not yet started more than 11 games in a season, would miss two
games, play in three others, before finally being shut down. Many
in Tennessee still have high hopes for their perceived franchise
quarterback, but the writing may be on the wall for a replacement
if he cannot stay healthy and produce at a decent level this season.
If Locker is going to succeed, however, this might be the best
opportunity he has had yet in his NFL career. New head coach Ken
Whisenhunt is coming to the team having just rejuvenated the career
of Philip Rivers in San Diego and he has his sights set on turning
around Locker’s career as well. Not only should this new
offense mean good things for Locker, but the emergence of two
young wide receivers in Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter has some
predicting a breakout season for the quarterback in 2014. Wright,
who finished seventh in the NFL in receptions in 2013 with 94,
is already considered one of the best possession receivers in
the league. Hunter, on the other hand, showed flashes of his incredible
talent in his rookie season, but has really come on in training
camp and the preseason for the Titans; even drawing praise from
some for his “Randy Moss-like” skills as a deep threat.
While it’s tough to head into the season with too high
of expectations for an offense that hasn’t put up great
passing numbers in quite a long time, their Week 1 test against
the Kansas City Chiefs could prove to be an interesting barometer
to see just how much they have improved. Kansas City started the
2013 season with an incredible stretch, having allowed just nine
passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in their first nine
games of the season, but could not keep up that pace. They proceeded
to allow 15 passing touchdowns against them over the final six
games of the season. Now without their top cornerback from a season
ago in Brandon Flowers, who is in San Diego, the Chiefs secondary
looks like a shell of its former self. Look for the Titans to
test them early and often in this game, likely giving Hunter at
least two opportunities at deep passes before the game is over.
Running Game Thoughts: It has been years since any other running
back in the Tennessee Titans offense has been fantasy relevant,
but with Chris Johnson now in New York, now is the time for someone
else to step up. Rookie running back Bishop Sankey has been targeted
by fantasy owners as the new lead back in Tennessee with veteran
Shonn Greene likely to play a backup role, but that’s not
how things have gone thus far. Sankey is actually listed as the
team’s No. 2 running back on the depth chart heading into
Week 1, behind Greene and ahead of newcomer Dexter McCluster.
While the depth chart doesn’t always mean what we think
it means, it is worth noting that Sankey does not seem to have
the full confidence of the coaching staff early in the season.
This, of course, brings headaches to those who drafted Sankey
as an RB2 or FLEX who were hoping to get production early in the
season from the young ball-carrier. Unfortunately, without access
to the Titans gameplan for Week 1, it will be almost impossible
to predict what will happen regarding the Titans’ running
back situation. Combine that with the fact that they will be up
against a Kansas City defense that allowed just eight rushing
touchdowns in 2013 and you have a recipe for some potentially
frustrating fantasy numbers. Neither Greene nor Sankey is a particularly
exciting fantasy option heading into this game, but Sankey is
the guy who likely possesses more ability to give his owners a
productive fantasy day.
Projections:
Jake Locker: 230 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Bishop Sankey: 50 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Shonn Greene: 35 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Dexter McCluster: 10 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Justin Hunter: 60 rec yds
Kendall Hunter: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Delanie Walker: 40 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Fresh off of giving quarterback Alex Smith
a $45M guaranteed contract, the Kansas City Chiefs have to be
very confident in the direction their team is headed going into
2014. Smith, who had another very efficient season with 23 touchdowns
and only seven interceptions, led the Chiefs to an unexpected
playoff run in 2013. Winning the turnover battle has been a staple
of Alex Smith’s success over the past few seasons as a member
of the 49ers and now the Chiefs, but it doesn’t exactly
excite fantasy owners. Despite throwing for a career high in touchdowns
and rushing for 431 yards, Smith finished 15th among quarterbacks
in standard-scoring leagues. While we would be wise to expect
a bit more passing and less running from the Chiefs this season
as they look to balance Jamaal Charles’ workload in order
to keep him healthy, the truth is that Alex Smith is likely never
going to be a reliable, every week starter for fantasy purposes...at
least not in this offense. His chances might be even worse in
Week 1 as top wide receiver Dwayne Bowe will be serving a suspension.
Smith will instead be throwing to the ever-exciting duo of Donnie
Avery and A.J. Jenkins. Worse yet, they’ll be up against
a Tennessee Titans secondary that quietly finished second in the
NFL, only behind the Seahawks, in fewest fantasy points allowed
to opposing wide receivers. The Titans allowed just six touchdowns
to opposing wideouts all season, and half of those came against
the Broncos. When these teams played in Week 5 of 2013, Smith
threw for just 245 yards, no touchdowns and an interception. While,
there is a bright side in that the Titans lost cornerback Alterraun
Verner to the Buccaneers over the offseason, there is still not
much to like in this Kansas City passing game for Week 1.
Running Game Thoughts: A monstrous 2013 season from Jamaal Charles
has fantasy owners salivating over the possibilities of him being
the league’s top-scoring fantasy running back for a second
straight year. Charles has been a lock as a top three pick in
almost all fantasy drafts this offseason, and for good reason.
He’s coming off of his best season yet and without any major
additions of playmakers, the Kansas City offense still centers
around getting the ball to No. 25. As long as he stays healthy,
there is no reason to believe that he will not once again finish
the season as one of the most valuable players in all of fantasy
football. The offensive line in Kansas City was left a little
bare over the offseason, but try not to be overly worried about
that unless we see it play out badly on the field. Charles is
capable of finding his way through even the smallest of holes
in the defense and making opposing defenses pay dearly.
This matchup against a Tennessee defense that surrendered the
third-most points to opposing fantasy running backs in 2013 is
an excellent one, and one that Charles himself exploited a season
ago. When these two teams met in Week 5, Charles punished the
defense for 108 yards and a touchdown on the ground while adding
five catches for 37 yards as a receiver. Similar numbers seem
like a good possibility as the Chiefs will be without Dwayne Bowe
and will likely need to rely even more heavily on Charles than
they normally do.
Projections:
Alex Smith: 170 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
Jamaal Charles: 100 rush yds, 1 TD, 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Donnie Avery: 40 rec yds
A.J. Jenkins: 30 rec yds
Travis Kelce: 40 rec yds
Prediction: Chiefs 20, Titans 14 ^ Top
Colts at Broncos
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: 2013 saw
a step back in terms of total passing yardage, yards per attempt
and rushing touchdowns for second-year quarterback Andrew Luck,
yet an overall increase in terms of efficiency. Luck threw the
same number of touchdowns in 2013 as he did in 2012 (23), but
he was able to cut his interceptions in half. That alone makes
Luck an enticing fantasy option for 2014, but there’s even
more reason to like Luck as the Colts have also added veteran
former New York Giants wide receiver Hakeem Nicks over the offseason.
Nicks, who went went back-to-back with 1,000-plus yard seasons
in 2010 and 2011, was on his way to becoming an elite fantasy
wide receiver before suffering injuries in 2012. Since then, he
Nicks has not been himself. Although he did reach nearly 900 yards
receiving in 2013, a change of scenery could be good for this
former first round NFL draft pick. Nicks will have an opportunity
to play next to some very solid receiving options in Indianapolis,
with T.Y. Hilton and veteran receiver Reggie Wayne, who will be
back after a torn ACL cost him the second half of his 2013 season.
This trio, in addition to the tight end duo of Dwayne Allen and
Coby Fleener, should give Andrew Luck an opportunity at a big
season in 2014. They’ll start off with a matchup against
a team that they upset in 2013 when they handed the Broncos their
first loss of 2013. Luck was exceptional in that game, putting
together one of his best fantasy performances of the season with
a 228 yard, three touchdown passing performance, while also adding
29 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground. While this will
be a tougher matchup on the road in Denver and playing against
a significantly improved Denver defense that has added the likes
of DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward, Luck is still a QB1
option heading into Week 1. If Denver puts points on the board
on offense as we know they are capable of doing, look for the
Colts to give Luck plenty of opportunities to throw the rock in
an effort to keep up.
Running Game Thoughts: In what has been hailed as one of the
worst NFL trades in recent memory, the Indianapolis Colts went
without a first round draft pick in 2014 after acquiring running
back Trent Richardson from the Cleveland Browns early in the 2013
season. Richardson, whose 3.6 yards per carry average was forgotten
by fantasy owners due to a 12-touchdown season, proved to be an
absolute disaster as a member of the Colts. Richardson averaged
an excruciatingly horrible 2.9 yards per carry on 157 attempts
as a member of the Colts, while scoring just four total touchdowns
on the season. Ahmad Bradshaw, who Richardson replaced after he
got injured in Week 3, now finds himself behind Richardson on
the depth chart, but with a sneaky opportunity to steal the job
should the young tailback continue to produce such abysmal numbers.
In Week 1, fantasy owners should expect that the Colts will give
Richardson somewhere between 12-to-18 touches, presuming that
they do not fall too far behind early in the game and have to
abandon the run. He’s worth consideration as a FLEX option
as he has shown the ability to score when close to the goaline.
It’s certainly tough to trust Richardson, especially considering
that he had one of his worst games of the season against the Broncos
this past year when he rushed for just 37 yards on 14 carries
and lost a fumble, but the Denver defense is not great against
the run. In fact, they allowed 14 or more fantasy points to opposing
running backs in 12 of their 16 games this past season. While
they have made improvements to their defense, most of them were
focused on stopping the pass. Don’t expect RB1 numbers out
of Richardson in this game, but 50-to-70 total yards and a decent
possibility for a touchdown makes him at least a bit interesting.
Projections:
Andrew Luck: 270 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
Trent Richardson: 45 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Ahmad Bradshaw: 25 rush yds
T.Y. Hilton: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Reggie Wayne: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Hakeem Nicks: 40 rec yds
Coby Fleener: 30 rec yds
Dwayne Allen: 20 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s amazing to think that Peyton
Manning’s 2013 season was literally the greatest fantasy
football season in the history of the game. Manning set single-season
NFL records in both passing yardage (5,477) and touchdowns (55)
while throwing just 10 interceptions on the year. Those who thought
that Manning’s career might be coming to an end after the
neck surgery that cost him the entire 2011 NFL season have been
hanging their heads in shame as Manning has put up an insane ratio
of 92 touchdowns with only 21 interceptions since coming to Denver.
While wide receiver Eric Decker left the team to join the Jets
in the offseason, Denver made sure to add to their offensive firepower
by picking up former Pittsburgh Steeler Emmanuel Sanders and drafting
6’3”, 215 lb Cody Latimer in the second round of April’s
NFL Draft. Unfortunately for the Broncos, slot receiver Wes Welker
will miss Week 1 as he will be serving a suspension after testing
positive for a banned substance. This will likely mean that Sanders
will slide inside to play the slot on many downs. Sanders was
used both in the slot and outside in 2013 as a member of the Steelers,
but will almost certainly see an increase in his 67 catches, 740
yards and six touchdowns now that he is a member of this high-powered
Denver offense. With Welker out, however, Denver may opt to rely
more on tight end Julius Thomas who enjoyed a breakout season
in 2013 with 788 yards and 12 touchdowns. Of course, the team’s
top wide receiver Demaryius Thomas figures to be the focal point
as he was a season ago, and could be poised to lead the entire
league in fantasy production from the wide receiver position this
season.
When these teams played in Week 7 of 2013, D. Thomas caught just
four passes, but made them count as he went for 82 yards and a
touchdown. J. Thomas also caught a touchdown on five catches in
that contest. Welker led the team in that game with seven catches
for 96 yards, so it will be interesting to see how Manning and
the Broncos choose to attack this Indianapolis secondary who was
middle-of-the-pack last season, giving up 20.9 FPts on average
to quarterbacks. Fantasy owners would be wise to start everyone
they can in this game, as this will likely be one of the highest-scoring
games of the week and many players will have an opportunity to
put up good numbers for fantasy purposes.
Running Game Thoughts: It’s pretty rare that a team cuts
ties with a player who produced nearly 1,600 yards of offense
and 13 touchdowns without losing a fumble in the previous season,
but that’s exactly what the Broncos decided to do when they
allowed Knowshon Moreno to walk and sign with the Miami Dolphins
this off-season. Moreno, who finished as a top-five fantasy running
back in 2013, shred his “bust” label and produced
monster fantasy numbers as a runner despite sharing the field
with the most productive passing game in the history of the league.
Denver’s bold decision to let Moreno go only goes to prove
that they are indeed confident in second-year running back Montee
Ball who struggled early as a rookie, but really stepped up in
the final few games of the season. Ball is not an exceptionally
talented runner, but he does have a nose for the end zone. In
fact, he scored more rushing touchdowns than any player in the
history of college football. That bodes well for his chances in
this offense as Ball will likely be given the exclusive opportunity
to carry the ball in the red zone. Moreno’s 13 touchdowns
were impressive, but Ball’s upside may be even higher. The
Colts ranked 26th in the league against the run in 2013 and even
given Denver’s insistence on passing the ball, that should
mean that some holes will be there for Ball to run through in
Week 1. Look for him to touch the ball nearly 20 times on the
day, with as good of a chance to score a touchdown as just about
any running back in the league. Ball is a very safe RB2 going
into this game with the very real potential to put up top-5 fantasy
numbers.
Projections:
Peyton Manning: 350 pass yds, 3 TD
Montee Ball: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Ronnie Hillman: 15 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Demaryius Thomas: 115 rec yds, 1 TD
Emmanuel Sanders: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Cody Latimer: 30 rec yds
Andre Caldwell: 25 rec yds
Julius Thomas: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Broncos 37, Colts 27 ^ Top
Giants @ Lions
- (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: Eli Manning
is coming off of his worst season since the early years of his
career when he was still learning how to play the position. He
only threw for 18 touchdown passes while accruing an unbelievable
27 interceptions. There are many reasons that could have led to
such a poor 2013 including a porous offensive line (Manning was
sacked a career high 39 times), an ankle injury suffered during
the season and the offensive gameplan being stale. The line issues
were addressed through free agency and the draft and Manning had
offseason surgery to clean up his ankle. Furthermore, the only
offensive coordinator that Eli has ever known, Kevin Gilbride,
was replaced by former Packer quarterback coach Ben McAdoo. There’s
hope for the younger Manning to turn things back around, as the
Giants will now be one of the up-tempo offenses that are now in
vogue around the league. McAdoo is also installing a more west
coast based play-calling that will use short screens and slants,
as opposed to Gilbride’s vertical based offense. The offensive
line will not have to hold its blocks as long and wide receivers
Victor Cruz, Reuben Randle and Odell Beckham are great fits for
the new offense. Unfortunately for the team, first round rookie
Beckham has missed most of training camp with a sore hamstring
so it will likely take him a good part of the early season to
get acclimated in the offense.
The Lions front seven should be a serious test for the Giants’
patched up offensive line. If the line isn’t able to protect
Eli Manning, this game could get ugly early. If Eli does get time,
he should find some success against a secondary that allowed 246.9
yards per game and 24 passing touchdowns last season. The Lions
did very little to address their defensive backfield this offseason.
Running Game Thoughts: Career backup Rashad Jennings was able
to parlay a nice run in 2013 with the Oakland Raiders into a starting
gig and a decent NFL payday. Jennings was able to rush for 733
yards with 6 touchdowns and caught 36 balls for another 292 yards
last season. He looked the part after taking over the starting
running back position in Week 10 following a Darren McFadden injury.
Jennings has had a great preseason and was one of the only bright
spots on the offensive side of the ball for New York. He should
see the bulk of the carries and be heavily involved in the passing
game. Andre Williams led the nation in rushing yards as a Boston
College Eagle last season. His size and running style is very
reminiscent of former Giant Brandon Jacobs. Williams lacks any
real wiggle, but has very impressive straight line speed for his
size and is tough to bring down once he gets momentum. Williams
looked impressive at times during the preseason and could be used
in a goal-line/short yardage role.
The Lions’ run defense finished the season sixth in the
league, and is poised to be a top unit once again. The middle
of the defense features defensive tackle Nhadamokung Suh, middle
line backer Stephen Tulloch and free safety Louis Delma who are
all strong against the run. The team allowed only 99.8 yards per
game and 10 touchdowns on the ground in 2013. This will be a good
early-season test for the Giants’ running game.
Projections:
Eli Manning: 195 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 5 rush yds
Rashad Jennings: 85 rush yds, 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Andre Williams: 15 rush yds, 5 rec yds
Victor Cruz: 85 rec yds
Rueben Randle: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Larry Donnell: 5 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Lions already had a top-three passing
offense last season, and went out and added more weapons for Matthew
Stafford to utilize. Pass happy coordinator Scott Linehan is no
longer with the team after the coaching staff was let go this
offseason, but new coordinator Joe Lombardi comes over from New
Orleans, last season’s number two ranked passing offense.
Head Coach Jim Caldwell was determined to improve Stafford’s
mechanics and he’s said to be pleased with the results.
In addition to having the best wide receiver in the league, Calvin
Johnson, the team signed former Seahawk Golden Tate and drafted
tight end Eric Ebron in round one of the NFL Draft. In place are
two very effective pass catchers at the running back position,
Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. It’s hard to imagine many teams
in the league throwing for more yards in 2014 than the Detroit
Lions.
The Giants signed Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Walter Thurmond
this offseason with the hope of improving on what was already
a decent pass defense last season. The Giants allowed 223.3 yards
per game and 21 passing touchdowns finishing as a top-ten unit.
What was missing was the once feared pass rush as the team finished
26th in the league in sacks. Not much was done on that front this
offseason and the team will hope defensive tackles Jason Pierre-Paul
and Matthias Kiwanuka can regain past form where they dominated
the line of scrimmage.
Running Game Thoughts: Journeyman Joique Bell seems to have finally
found a home in Detroit and is expected to see the bulk of the
carries in the Lions backfield while Reggie Bush is utilized more
in the “Darren Sproles” role. Both backs are very
good pass catchers and Bell is the superior inside runner. Bush
displayed his dynamic running style this preseason and should
still see a good number of carries in 2014. As Bush grew older
and more experienced, he became a much better overall back finally
learning to run north-south more instead of always dancing around
looking for the big play. This should be one of the better running
back tandems in the league this season.
The Giants were average against the run last season but could
regress in 2014. Last season they allowed 108.9 yards per game
and 12 touchdowns on the ground. The team will be relying on Jon
Beason’s health this season, which isn’t necessarily
a strong bet to make.
Projections:
Matthew Stafford: 305 pass yds, 3 TDs
Joique Bell: 95 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Reggie Bush: 55 rush yds, 45 rec yds
Calvin Johnson: 135 rec yds, 1 TD
Golden Tate: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Eric Ebron: 20 rec yds
Brandon Pettigrew: 10 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Lions 34, Giants 27 ^ Top
Jaguars at Eagles
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: True to their
word the Jaguars appear to be sticking with the plan of bringing
along rookie QB Blake Bortles slowly, giving incumbent QB Chad
Henne the start despite a solid preseason from the third overall
draft pick. The future is brighter in Jacksonville than it’s
been in recent memory, but the upcoming season isn’t likely
to be much better than last. The journeyman veteran QB has only
gotten older and his offensive line isn’t remarkably different.
The receiving corps is headlined by WR Cecil Shorts who shows
flashes of brilliance but is frequently hamstrung by his own hamstrings,
and opposite him is Marqise Lee, a rookie WR from the University
of Southern California; none of those descriptors historically
lend themselves to fantasy or on-the-field productivity. The only
consistently reliable receiving option may be TE Marcedes Lewis,
now age 30, who missed more games last season (5) than he has
the rest of his career (3 games in 7 previous seasons). Despite
hauling in just 53% of the passes thrown his way Lewis caught
more touchdowns than anyone else on the team (4) and had a better
yards per reception average (14.4) than anyone with more than
three targets. With a near-painful lack of other receiving talent
on the field any given week, the veteran TE may be the most dependable
fantasy option on the team. His low ceiling speaks volumes about
fantasy prospects in Jacksonville.
Based on 2013 performances, if there’s an NFL defense that
can make the Jaguars passing offense look respectable it would
certainly be their 2014 Week One opponents from Philadelphia.
Despite perception to the contrary, Jacksonville did not have
a historically bad passing offense last year. Conversely, although
they made the playoffs the Eagles were indeed bad enough to earn
their place in record books. This off-season saw turnover in the
secondary and picked up depth in their most serious areas of need,
but until proven otherwise the defense is expected to be just
as poor, though perhaps not historically so. The biggest hindrance
to the Jaguars passing game is likely to be the Jaguars passing
game, though with a relatively clean bill of health and the desire
to right the wrongs of 2013 the Eagles will certainly try to contribute
to the aerial woes likely to befall Jacksonville.
Running Game Thoughts: A number of fantasy-relevant moves were
made this offseason involving RBs and Jacksonville found themselves
on both ends of the news, losing long-time star Maurice Jones-Drew
and obtaining Toby Gerhart, the dutiful backup to one of the league’s
best backs over the past several years. After a number of impressive
performances in limited action, Gerhart has been thrust into the
spotlight and is expected to be the bell cow that MJD had been
for years. If the preseason is any indication of what is to come
in 2014, the Jaguars may have overplayed their hand by going all-in
with the former backup, though with respect to other backfield
options Gerhart still may be the best they have available. The
only other change made this off-season which should affect the
running game was the departure of G Uche Nwanert and his timely
replacement by G Zane Beadles, seen as an upgrade at the position
and hopefully with an improvement to the second-worst ground attack
in the league. With minimal passing threat posed by the offense,
opposing defenses are once again likely to key on the run game,
potentially overwhelming the Jaguars O-line and the now-starter
running behind them.
The Eagles front seven will look incredibly similar to how it
did last year, and if they can replicate the same success they
did from 2013 then they ought to be in good shape. As a top ten
defense, no team forced nor recovered more fumbles than they did,
and only three teams had a lower yards allowed per rush average.
In the entirety of his career, RB Toby Gerhart has rushed 276
times and fumbled on five of those. Last year alone nine RBs carried
at least that many times and only one had that many fumbles on
rushing plays; all the others had three fumbles or less. Considering
the lack of experience Gerhart brings into 2014 and the proclivity
which the Eagles have for limiting even the league’s best
runners, Jacksonville’s rush faces a tough test in their
opening game. If the Jaguars passing attack is able to have moderate
success then the ground game may be able to do the same, but given
the unlikelihood of the former the latter is equally as unlikely,
paving the way for a long and disappointing season for Gerhart
and his fantasy owners.
Projections:
Chad Henne: 205 pass yds, 1 TD, 3 INTs
Toby Gerhart: 50 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yards
Cecil Shorts: 45 rec yds
Marqise Lee: 25 rec yds
Marcedes Lewis: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: The fantasy surprise of 2013 was Eagles
QB Nick Foles and the question of the off-season has been his
(in)ability to continue where he left off. Preseason performances
showed the world that he is indeed human; throwing more interceptions
in 13 drives than he did in 13 regular season appearances last
year. The biggest changes in the passing game are the departure
of speedy DeSean Jackson and the return of his counterpart Jeremy
Maclin who missed all of 2013 due to a knee injury. The addition
of RB Darren Sproles gives the offense another experienced set
of hands and yet another quality piece to use in the Chip Kelly
offensive puzzle. The personnel moves in Philadelphia give the
passing game more versatility; so even with the perceived decrease
in top-end speed the offense is potentially more dynamic than
it was last season. Although rookie WR Jordan Matthews has shown
great skill in the preseason he is still behind both Maclin and
WR Riley Cooper on the depth chart. The presence of pass catching
TEs Zach Ertz and Brent Celek make Matthews a fantasy sleeper
worth holding in deeper or dynasty leagues, but until he fully
establishes himself in the regular season offense this rookie
is currently a waiver wire target to watch but not own for the
time being.
No one recorded fewer sacks last season than the Jaguars and
to address that deficiency they acquired three DEs, including
two from the Super Bowl champions who are now slated as starters
in Jacksonville. It’s hard to believe that the D-line won’t
improve with these personnel upgrades, and the additional pressure
that is likely to result can only help the back seven who struggled
to slow down most opponents through the air despite facing two
of the league’s poorest offenses in divisional matchups
last season. Considering the fast pace that the Eagles are likely
to try to bring to their own offensive possessions, the lack of
quality coverage defensive backs can only be masked by whatever
pressure can be provided by the defensive line. The Eagles surrendered
46 sacks last season, eighth worst in the league, and still managed
to put together an explosive passing attack with the highest yards
per attempt average in the NFL. History suggests that even if
Jacksonville is able to generate an impressive amount of pressure
on Foles and the O-line it is probably not going to be enough
to slow the Eagles passing attack.
Running Game Thoughts: The backfield in Philadelphia was already
incredible before acquiring all-purpose RB Darren Sproles from
the Saints. Now the league’s most proficient rusher RB LeSean
McCoy, who himself is a quality pass catcher, will be paired with
arguably the best pass catching back from the past several years,
who also happens to be a reliable ball carrier. Taking the same
approach as the receiving corps, the top Eagles ball carriers
are dynamic between the tackles, while running outside, and also
out of the backfield. The prevailing opinion is that McCoy will
continue to see the lion’s share of touches as a three-down
back, but that Sproles will be available whenever he’s needed
to spell the starter, and that both are likely to be on the field
at the same time on numerous occasions. The preseason was disappointingly
vanilla from Philadelphia, giving next to zero insight as to how
Chip Kelly plans to utilize the multitude of weapons the Eagles
have at their disposal. Regardless of the game plan or the particular
intricacies of the offense, what remains true is that Philadelphia
is the reigning king of the ground game, and with the new talent
available at every skill position it’s impossible to fathom
a regression of any sort in the Eagles rushing attack.
Last season no defense faced more rushing attempts than Jacksonville,
largely because their opponents were protecting comfortable leads
and trying to run out the clock. They also gave up the fourth
most rushing yards of any team and the fourth most touchdowns
on the ground. By nearly all measures they had a poor offense
and so their defense was on the field frequently, but the Jaguars
could do little to get off the field and thus the cycle continued.
With the DE additions this offseason Jacksonville stands to be
more formidable along the line of scrimmage, but improving on
almost-last place isn’t much of a stretch. The opening game
will be a true test for the defense, though using it as a benchmark
to evaluate the front seven is unfair. Combining the poor Jaguars
offense with their hopefully-mediocre defense suggests that Philadelphia
is likely to have a number of opportunities both on the ground
and through the air to remind the rest of the league that they’re
an offensive forced to be reckoned with.
Projections:
Nick Foles: 200 pass yds, 3 TDs
LeSean McCoy: 90 rush yds, 2 TDs, 25 rec yds
Darren Sproles: 25 rush yds, 25 rec yds, 1 TD
Jeremy Maclin: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Riley Cooper: 45 rec yds
Zach Ertz: 50 rec yds, TD
Prediction: Eagles 42, Jaguars 17 ^ Top
Raiders at Jets
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: After sending
a late round pick to the Texans in late March in order to acquire
QB Matt Schaub, the Raiders selected QB Derek Carr in the second
round of the NFL draft to compete with the newly acquired veteran.
The competition must have been impressively one-sided, because
despite a concussion in the preseason and needing to miss time,
as of Labor Day the rookie was declared the Oakland opening day
starter. Despite having no professional experience Carr did have
one clear advantage coming into training camp: arm strength. Though
he’ll undoubtedly take his licks on the field, fantasy owners
have to be encouraged by the move because it brings value to Raiders
pass catchers where previously there was none. With Carr under
center Oakland can stretch the field with WR James Jones, allowing
some combination of WR Rod Streater, WR Denarius Moore, and TE
Mychal Rivera to work underneath or across the field. Though the
potential for failure is still incredibly present at least now
there is some conceivable upside. So as long as the Raiders are
likely to play from behind more often than not, there is a legitimate
argument to be made for owning Jones and whoever else happens
to emerge from the depths of The Black Hole, though without results
the argument is only theoretical.
Thankfully for Oakland the weakest part of the Jets defense is
clearly their talent and depth at cornerback, and with CB Dee
Milner reportedly out for week one that weakness is even more
evident. The question facing the Raiders though is if they’ll
be able to take advantage of that weakness, or if the other nine
players on the field can make up for the apparent deficiency.
The strength of New York is their defensive line, followed closely
by their linebackers. Both of which will face off against the
newly retooled Oakland offensive line, a unit which fell victim
to injury and was limited to moderate success last season. With
a young quarterback who possesses good physical tools, underused
pass catchers, and a veteran O-line most of the pieces are there
for the Raiders to be able to field a reasonable offense. Between
the inexperience of that unit and the potential dominance of the
Jets front seven though there are too many uncertainties at this
time to feel good about owning, let alone starting, any Raiders
pass catchers, with WR James Jones being the only potential exception.
Running Game Thoughts: Based on recent free agent moves in Oakland,
apparently the best way to fortify a backfield led by an injury-prone
veteran is with a somewhat less injury-prone yet quickly aging
veteran. Long time RB Darren McFadden has never played more than
13 games in a season and with the arrival of RB Maurice Jones-Drew
it appears he’ll now be playing the supporting role to the
newly-acquired 29 year-old. Running behind a mediocre O-line and
not having a great quarterback under center are not new to MJD,
and in similar situations he’s put up top 10 fantasy numbers
multiple times. If everything goes to plan the Raiders will have
a productive star heading their backfield, who can be relieved
by the younger more injury-prone back, and the timeshare may enable
them both to stay healthy and remain productive for the full season.
That’s the plan at least. With the top two rushers from
last season no longer on the time (RB Rashad Jennings signed with
the Giants, QB Terrelle Pryor was released), everyone in Oakland
is hoping that plan comes to fruition.
It’s unlikely that New York cares which the ball carrier
they’ll face as the stingiest defense of last season (3.4
yards against per carry) looks to repeat the dominance they exhibited
for the majority of 2013. In the same way that the success of
offensive line will have an enormous impact on the passing game,
their ability to move the Jets stalwarts will be phenomenally
important to both Jones-Drew and McFadden. Because of all the
uncertainty with the Raiders new offensive pieces there’s
no framework on which to set expectations for the rushing attack,
but even so week ones figures to be one of the toughest tests
they’ll face all season. As long as the game remains close
Oakland will be able to rely on their veteran ball carriers, though
even with a dedication to the running game the New York defensive
line is unlikely to yield very much to whichever RB is given the
opportunity.
Projections:
Derek Carr: 145 pass yds, 2 INTs
Maurice Jones-Drew: 40 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Darren McFadden: 25 rush yds, 10 rec yds
James Jones: 40 rec yds
Mychal Rivera: 25 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: For the first time in what feels like an
eternity the Jets are unmistakably better off at the quarterback
position at the beginning of this season than they were the one
prior. Starting QB Geno Smith is no longer a rookie, and despite
a rough season he showed gradual improvement which has continued
through the preseason this year. Even the backup situation has
improved, with veteran QB Michael Vick signing with the team this
offseason. The resulting competition and mentoring opportunities
have fostered additional growth in the young signal caller, and
having Vick as a backup provides for a similar style to be played
should he ever need to appear in a game. The biggest change in
New York will come from new additions to the receiving corps,
namely WR Eric Decker and rookie TE Jace Amaro, who by most accounts
appear to be dramatic improvements to the depleted options, which
were frequently on display throughout 2013. Between the progression
under center and the upgrades already paying dividends as pass
catchers the Jets may at last have an offense solid enough to
pair with their already formidable defense. Make no mistake however,
the New York passing game is still far from intimidating due to
the absolute lack of depth behind the two aforementioned players.
Even though the Raiders had statistically one of the worst passing
defenses of the past season, their personnel ought to matchup
with New York better than with most others. The defensive line
is largely constructed of older but skilled veterans and the secondary
is highly capable of matching up with most starting receivers.
The lack of depth at WR will limit the Jets for the majority of
the season, and even against a seemingly lesser defense like Oakland
they likely do not have the aerial firepower to take advantage
of presented opportunities. The best chance for New York to see
success through the air would be to establish the run game early
and force the Raiders defense to over commit, thus opening up
the field and allowing the improved sophomore QB to pick and choose
the best receiver.
Running Game Thoughts: From a position of questionable reliability
to one of extreme strength, the Jets backfield is now likely to
be the focal point of the offense. Featuring the cheetah racing
former Titan’s RB Chris Johnson, last year’s between-the-tackles
workhorse RB Chris Ivory, and the ever-versatile RB Bilal Powell,
New York has possibly the best combination of ball carriers in
the league and conceivably has a specialist for every potential
rushing situation. Going into week one Johnson is going to be
the starter, but how the three will split time has yet to be determined.
Close to the redzone touches may favor Ivory, so if a touchdown
vulture is going to emerge from the group it will be him. The
greatest upside is with Johnson, and should either he or Ivory
get injured Powell will certainly be there to fill in as needed.
Along with those three QB Geno Smith is mobile and has demonstrated
better decision making when it comes to utilizing his legs, so
whether from broken plays or to exploit too much attention being
paid to a RB, Smith will likely be able to rush or scramble for
a significant play in most games.
At the end of last year the Jets were in the top quarter of the
league for most rushing statistics, so with the addition of Johnson
to the backfield and the improvements of Smith under center the
ground game figures to be even better this season. This doesn’t
bode well for Oakland, even though they were approximately a top
ten run defense in 2013. The reconfiguration of the D-line raises
questions as to their potential effectiveness, but the names on
the back of the jerseys suggest the potential for the squad to
be equally as good as they were last year, possibly even better.
The trouble may come from the second level, where only the middle
linebacker has more than one year of NFL experience, though compared
to others at his position LB Nick Roach may be one of the best
the is this season. If the two young LBs can contribute as anticipated
and the defensive line can mesh as hoped, the Raiders may field
one of the best defenses of 2014, but with so many unproven contributors
this should not be expected.
Projections:
Geno Smith: 155 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Chris Johnson: 55 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Chris Ivory: 30 rush yds, TD
Eric Decker: 25 rec yds
Jace Amaro: 35 rec yds, TD
Prediction: Jets 17, Raiders 6 ^ Top
Patriots at Dolphins
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: Now age 37,
QB Tom Brady is expected to be nearing the end of his 15 year
NFL career, but whether that’s a matter of months or a matter
of years away is anyone’s guess. What is for certain though
is New England is expected as a serious playoff contender and
he’s going to be at the heart of everything they do. Despite
the prolonged greatness he’s given to the Patriots his fantasy
value has been slipping for the past several years. In 2013 he
barely finished in the top 15, keeping such company as Ryan Tannehill,
Matt Ryan, Alex Smith, and Ben Roethlisberger. As time has progressed
so too has the way Brady manages the game, evolving from a high
volume-scoring machine to more of a crafty opportunist, frequently
yielding to the run game when defenses overcompensate for his
legend. In addition to the changing approach to the game, last
year also presented Brady with one of the most modest collection
of receivers he’s had in recent history between suspensions,
injuries, and inexperience. Now that WR Danny Amendola and TE
Rob Gronkowski are reportedly healthy and WRs Aaron Dobson and
Kenbrell Thompkins have another year of experience, they join
WR Julian Edelman on the field as Brady starts the season with
a full complement of receiving options. With TE Tim Wright being
acquired via trade and Shane Vereen still capably contributing
out of the backfield New England has receiving depth in addition
to overall improvement paving the way for a bounce back year for
Brady as the Patriots make their expected push for the Super Bowl.
As a unit New England was approximately the tenth best passing
offense last season and Brady had one of the most mediocre years
of his career. Assuming even a modest rebound that will put tremendous
pressure on the new-look Miami secondary. Bolstered by CB Cortland
Finnegan and S Louis Delmas the back seven now has much better
name recognition, but how that translates onto the field is yet
to be seen. The Dolphins found themselves right in the middle
of defensive passing rankings for the majority of the season with
the exception of touchdowns allowed, where they finished tied
for third fewest and were one of only three teams to record more
interceptions than they conceded touchdowns. In a “bend
but don’t break” fashion Miami gave up fewer scores
than would be expected for the yardage they surrendered, but even
that total was not awful. If the new additions to the defense
can improve the secondary and the front seven can continue to
apply reasonable pressure then the Dolphins may have the necessary
components to limit the damage done by even elite quarterbacks.
Against New England matchup issues are always the primary concern,
though considering that the Patriots offense has yet to truly
play together as this unit it may be beneficial to the Dolphins
that they’re meeting in week one.
Running Game Thoughts: Before hopes from the off-season were
dashed on the rocky shores of the preseason it seemed like the
fantasy universe finally had the Patriots backfield situation
under control. Down to two primary backs it appeared as if RB
Stevan Ridley would handle primary rushing duties and RB Shane
Vereen would be used more in passing situations, ultimately resulting
in a committee-like arrangement where situation would dictate
the ball carrier. Then the preseason hit and Ridley once again
was struck with the fumbles, one of the things for which Coach
Bill Belichick has no tolerance. On top of that Vereen tended
to show better when it mattered more, so now prevailing wisdom
and fantasy projection have concluded that Vereen has been pegged
as the running back to be used most frequently, with Ridley and
others being used as the starter needs a rest. Assuming this holds
true the change will benefit fantasy owners tremendously, as Vereen
has the most upside because of his pass-catching abilities; last
year he recorded more receiving yards and caught more touchdowns
than all other Patriots backs combined. Coming off a team top
ten rushing performance New England made the surprise move of
the preseason by trading away longtime G Logan Mankins and the
worthiness of his replacement has not yet been tested. With Brady
under center and calling plays at the line of scrimmage it is
assumed that little will change in the trenches for the Patriots,
and as such Vereen may become the value fantasy draft pick of
the season.
Much like their passing defense the Dolphins gave up more yardage
on the ground than their touchdown total would suggest, but whereas
Miami was average or better against the pass they were noticeably
subpar when facing the run. They did face the second most rush
attempts and as such their yards surrendered can be taken with
a grain of salt, but even so the yards allowed per attempt were
no better than 18th for the league while giving up nearly 125
rushing yards per game. Ball carriers generally found success
against the Dolphins front seven so the team allowed DT Paul Soliai
to leave in free agency and replaced him with a younger and slimmer
Earl Mitchell to hopefully provide a more disruptive force in
their 4-3 front. Little else of consequence happened along the
front seven through free agency so without improvement from another
source there is minimal reason for optimism for the Dolphins being
a better run stopping team this season. Miami faces a potentially
tough task being asked to slow down both the Patriots passing
game and their rushing attack, and with the ground game being
both the strength of the offense and weakness of the defense it
is that phase of week one which is likely to play the biggest
role in determining the outcome of the contest.
Projections:
Tom Brady: 235 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Shane Vereen: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 45 rec yds
Julian Edelman: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Aaron Dobson: 40 rec yds
Rob Gronkowski: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Coming into the 2013 season the biggest
concern facing the Miami aerial attack was if QB Ryan Tannehill
and WR Mike Wallace would ever resolve their timing issues and
finally be able to become the deep threat passing duo that the
Dolphins hoped for. Despite upheaval along the offensive line
the 2013 question is still the top concern heading into this season.
The young quarterback and the speedy receiver seemingly have yet
to resolve whatever problems exist that have severely hobbled
the offense. Without a reliable deep threat opposing defenses
are able to key on other aspects of the passing attack as well
as over commit to the run. Emerging from the dysfunction between
starting QB and star WR is the utility of players like WR Brian
Hartline and TE Charles Clay whose possession receiving skills
have made them high volume fantasy targets. Hartline was clearly
the team’s top receiver last season, recording nearly 100
more yards than Wallace and only one fewer touchdown. By comparison
Clay recorded one more touchdown than the star receiver and only
170 fewer yards as a tight end. While the biggest name in Miami
is undoubtedly Wallace, he’s conceivably the third most
valuable fantasy pass catcher. The hope for Tannehill is that
he’ll take a huge step forward in his third year after showing
improvement across the board during his sophomore season. With
history as an indicator the third year is a reasonable time to
expect the most improvement in most young players, but with a
relatively unimproved supporting cast expectations should be tempered
toward more modest advances.
This off-season the Patriots struck early and often in free agency
when it came to acquiring defensive talent. Despite losing big
name players like CB Aqib Talib and S Adrian Wilson the team saw
a net upgrade by adding CB Darrelle Revis and S Patrick Chung,
the former of which is still the top player at his position and
the latter is comparably skilled and has eight fewer seasons of
NFL wear and tear. Furthermore CB Brandon Browner was a highly
sought after cap causality from the Super Bowl champs who will
see his first playing action after serving a four game suspension
to start the season. All of these moves were made in an effort
to improve on the 18th ranked passing defense, who despite giving
up an average number of yards and scores, had the fourth best
pass completion percentage against in the league. With the Dolphins
demonstrating minimal ability to consistently stretch the field
that should enable the New England defensive backs to play tighter
coverage on the Miami possession receivers, potentially limiting
the offense and minimizing the team’s ability to move the
ball downfield. Even if Wallace is able to command more respect
in the passing game the New England front seven will certainly
be looking to pressure Tannehill, who suffered more sacks last
year than any other quarterback in the NFL.
Running Game Thoughts: Up to the kickoff of the Thursday night
game no official announcement had been made regarding the starting
running back in Miami. After a preseason filled with conflicting
reports, mixed game results, and varying insights into injury
and fitness statuses, it seems like very few people claim to know
what is likely to happen in the backfield or who the primary ball
carrier is going to be. Because of these factors the best prediction
may be a committee situation until either RB Lamar Miller or RB
Knowshon Moreno can separate himself from the other. Miller has
more impressive upside on the ground but Moreno is far better
in pass protection so he figures to be the third down back and
in passing situations. Based on what he did last year in Denver
the early prediction was that Moreno would be the every down back
and Miller would be the change of pace ball carrier, but after
knee surgery and reporting to camp somewhat out of shape his every
down status was immediately called into question. However Moreno
was brought in to compete with Miller after the entire Miami rushing
contingent was stupendously disappointing, scoring only 8 total
rushing touchdowns and averaging a mere 90 yards per game and
a modest 4.1 per carry. For now and until proven otherwise, neither
Miller nor Moreno has much fantasy value while they share duties
in an underwhelming backfield.
Mercifully the weakness of the Miami offense will line up perfectly
with the weakness of the New England defense, and as poor as the
Dolphins were rushing the ball the Patriots are ever so slightly
worse, at least according to 2013 statistics. New England opponents
averaged 4.5 yards per carry and over 135 per game, so even with
a struggling duo of ball carriers there’s at least reason
for optimism for Dolphins ball carriers. The bolstered defense
which figures to be better against the pass is also expected to
be better against the run, and improving from the depths of rushing
rankings won’t be a stretch of any conceivability. Perhaps
the biggest issue the Patriots faced on defense last season was
untimely injuries, so with a clean bill of health going into week
one they’re already in a better place than they were at
the end of 2013. Facing the Dolphins to begin the season may be
just what New England needs to start the 2014 season off on the
right foot.
Projections:
Ryan Tannehill: 210 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Lamar Miller: 50 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Knowshon Moreno: 45 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Mike Wallace: 35 rec yds
Brian Hartline: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Charles Clay: 25 rec yds
Prediction: Patriots 27, Dolphins 17 ^ Top
49ers at Cowboys
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: The San Francisco
offense remains nearly unchanged from last season, and if similar
inputs yield similar outputs then the passing game will once again
strive for fantasy mediocrity. As an offense they’ll be
much more balanced with WR Michael Crabtree at full health to
begin the season. Last year’s leading pass catcher WR Anquan
Boldin remains with the team after resigning in the off-season,
and no longer holding out the team’s leading touchdown catcher
TE Vernon Davis completes the three headed monster which is the
49ers aerial attack. While the top three receivers figure to fare
well this season, the depth behind them seems to be incredibly
limited once again. Despite playing in only five games last season
Crabtree was still the third leading receiver on the team with
respect to both yardage and touchdown receptions. The strength
of the offense continues to be the offensive line and the powerful
running backs behind them, but duel-threat QB Colin Kaepernick
benefits from that strength in both aspects of the offense. Though
the young quarterback has only modest fantasy upside as a passer,
his contributions on the ground elevate his potential well into
the top five at the position. The question will once again be
how much of that potential he realizes and how well his is able
to limit the physical toll on his body so that he can once again
play a complete season.
Although it’s hard to predict on exactly which Sunday Kaepernick
will exercise his ability to completely take over a game, with
a week one opponent like Dallas the odds are dramatically more
in his favor. Coming off one of the worst statistical seasons
in recent memory the Cowboys defense lost more talent than they
gained during the off-season and training camp injuries once again
affected the defense in one of the worst ways, stripping an already
thin defense of their on-field leader LB Sean Lee. Dallas was
near the bottom of the league in sacks recorded, only marginally
better in interceptions forced, and had one of the worst combinations
of yards allowed per pass attempt, pass completion percentage,
and yardage surrendered through the air. With limited ability
to rush the passer the secondary was left woefully exposed, and
nothing from the off-season or preseason suggests that the Cowboys
have improved in either respect; most reports actually conclude
that the defense has regressed. All of these factors point to
phenomenal potential for the 49ers in week one. If the San Francisco
running game can be established early the defense will have to
over commit, further exposing the secondary to Crabtree running
deep, Boldin across the middle, and Davis exploiting the defensive
matchups however they’re presented. Even with limited depth
at WR the 49ers are still likely to overwhelm Dallas through the
air.
Running Game Thoughts: According to an old adage it is possible
to have too much of a good thing. In a fantasy sense, the rushing
attack of San Francisco may be so successful that starting RB
Frank Gore may be pulled early or rested more frequently because
his services aren’t required. If the 49ers are as strong
in the run as they were last season, and with a nearly identical
O-line and backfield it’s hard to imagine otherwise, rookie
RB Carlos Hyde may make more of an appearance than expected in
the NFL debut. Between the playmaking abilities of QB Colin Kaepernick,
the skill and strength of Gore, and the bulldozers disguised as
San Francisco offensive linemen, the 49ers will once again field
one of the most physical and imposing ground games in the league.
Provided that any semblance of balance can be achieved between
the passing and rushing aspects of the offense, the team figures
to be able to pick up where they left off last season. If this
does occur and the 49ers impose their will on the Dallas defense,
Hyde may spoil an otherwise magnificent fantasy day from Gore
by subbing in for him before the game is out of reach. The best
hope for Gore owners is that the Cowboys offense can keep the
game close, forcing San Francisco to continue to put forth full
effort in the rushing attack.
Technically Dallas was less dreadful against the run in 2013
than they were against the pass, technically; they were still
one of the worst five against the ground game by most statistical
measure. Without LB Sean Lee last year and then again this year
the majority of the pressure will fall on the defensive line to
stop the 49ers ground game, and thankfully the most significant
addition to the team this off-season belongs on the D-line. Formerly
with Chicago, it was the injury to DT Henry Melton that signaled
the beginning of the end of the Bears ferocious run defense, so
his presence on the Dallas defensive line is expected to be equally
impactful. Without much else of note in the front seven it feels
as if the success of the defense rests unfairly on his shoulders.
Between the running back talent in San Francisco and the ability
of the quarterback to make plays with his legs the Cowboys defense
is likely to be worn thin as they consistently face a fresh ball
carrier running behind one of the most physical offensive lines
in the league. If the 49ers are able to control the line of scrimmage
as expected it will be a long day for the home team as they try
with no avail to slow the rushing attack of San Francisco.
Projections:
Colin Kaepernick: 215 pass yds, 2 TDs, 45 rush yds
Frank Gore: 135 rush yds, 1 TD
Carlos Hyde: 50 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Michael Crabtree: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Anquan Boldin: 50 rec yds
Vernon Davis: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Because of how free agency worked out and
preseason injuries transpired the Cowboys are going to have to
win games by outscoring their opponents on offense rather than
limiting them with their defense. Veteran QB Tony Romo, fresh
off back surgery and still carrying the weight of his enormous
contract, will of course be at the center of this strategy for
victory, along with his trusty TE Jason Witten, superstar WR Dez
Bryant, and emerging talent WR Terrance Williams. Both on the
field and from a fantasy perspective the aging TE is on the downside
of his career but of all the players more likely to fade off into
the sunset as opposed to going out with a bag, Witten would certainly
be considered among the latter. With the points that are going
to be needed from the offense in order to make up for the tragically
thin defense, Romo is going to be looking for contributions from
everyone with a star on their helmet and there ought to be more
than enough passes to spread around. While balance is preached
as the key to offensive success I see Dallas favoring the pass
more frequently than the run, putting a premium on the quarterback’s
ability to make the right read, execute the proper throw, and
avoid the game-ending mistakes for which he’s gained an
arguably unfair reputation.
To steal a phrase from Lloyd Christmas of Dumb and Dumber, I’m
telling you “there’s a chance” that Dallas can
win this game, and that “one out of a million” shot
comes courtesy of missing personnel on the part of the 49ers defense.
Standout LBs Aldon Smith (suspension) and NaVorro Bowman (ACL
recovery) will leave the team short in the areas of pass rushing
and pass coverage, respectively. That puts more pressure on the
D-line, who between aging and pending criminal concerns have enough
to worry about without the increased responsibilities. Even if
the Cowboys can consistently get past the front seven of San Francisco
they still have to deal with the secondary, which is likely the
best it’s been in a number of years. The most probable scenario
is that the absences and distractions will not impact the outcome
of the game, but they may be enough to positively affect the fantasy
performances of the biggest Dallas stars.
Running Game Thoughts: Regardless of the team performs in week
one Dallas ought to be better running the ball in 2014 than they
were last season, but considering how they couldn’t average
more than 95 yards per game any improvement would be relative.
Under new offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, the team is expected
to be more focused on the pass, but that could open things up
on the ground if defenses start favoring the aerial game. With
the same three ball carriers in the backfield and an offensive
line with another year of experience under its belt the pieces
are in place for Dallas to at least escape the bottom ten when
it comes to rushing attacks. Leading RB DeMarco Murray is coming
off his most successful professional season and the 14 games he
played last year are the most he’s played in his career.
The totals he put up in 2013 are nearly equal to those he collected
in the two years prior, and if he can take another step forward
this year he’ll establish himself as a reliable fantasy
RB as well as a central piece of the Dallas offense. With Romo
recovering from his second back surgery in two years and a defense
not likely to help the cause, Murray may be thrust into a role
bigger than he is able to fill. With the team’s assumed
necessity to score points and the offensive coordinator’s
propensity to pass, fantasy owners are more likely to find themselves
wanting him to touch the ball more and be given more opportunities,
rather than less and hoping to avoid injury by sharing the workload.
As much as the 49ers pass defense relies on the front seven to
create pressure, even more so does the run defense require the
defensive line and linebackers to snuff out opposing ball carriers.
Despite the potential personnel issues highlighted earlier San
Francisco still has a collection of stout run stoppers who are
looking forward to their opportunity to shine. As a team they
gave up the fourth fewest rushing yards in the league and had
an equally as impressive yards allowed per rush average. By comparison
the Cowboys ground game was not particularly adept at getting
the most out of their rush attempts, nor were they committed enough
to the run to make up for their lack of efficiency with increased
volume. Despite the positives that can be attributed to Murray
and the Dallas O-line they mean little to the 49ers and their
ability to shut down even the most gifted runners. If San Francisco
gets beat through the air early and Bryant wreaks havoc in the
secondary that may open up running lanes for the Cowboys to exploit,
but barring a big day from the Dallas superstar the 49ers probably
aren’t giving up may yards on the ground and are almost
certainly not conceding a rushing touchdown.
Projections:
Tony Romo: 260 pass yds, 3 TDs, 2 INTs
DeMarco Murray: 55 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Dez Bryant: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Terrance Williams: 50 rec yds
Jason Witten: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: 49ers 35, Cowboys 27 ^ Top
Saints at Falcons
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Among fantasy
owners, there isn’t a player more respected than Drew Brees.
Year in and year out, he delivers prodigious numbers, and was
the second highest scoring quarterback in fantasy last season.
He should continue down that path this year despite losing Darren
Sproles. Brees still has arguably the best receiving tight end
in football, Jimmy Graham, a veteran in Marques Colston, a dynamic
rookie in Brandin Cooks, and another youngster in Kenny Stills.
Stills is nursing a hamstring injury and is very iffy to play
at press time. If he sits, Joe Morgan would fill his deep threat
role against a Falcons team that was prone to being lit up through
the air in 2013.
Frankly, Atlanta was mediocre to bad most of last season against
the pass. They ranked 28th or worse in most pass-defense statistics,
though they did rank 21st in total passing yards allowed, if you
want to call that a bright spot. The Falcons allowed the seventh-most
fantasy points in the league to QBs last year and the ninth-most
to TEs but were tied for 14th in points allowed to WRs. It wouldn’t
be a shock if they improved somewhat in this area, but still represent
a quality match-up for Brees and Co.
Running Game Thoughts: The loss
of the aforementioned Sproles won’t necessarily hurt the
New Orleans running attack, because of how few carries he actually
got last season (53 – fourth on the team). This year the
Saints will continue to shuffle carries between runners Pierre
Thomas, Mark Ingram, and Khiry Robinson. Many believe Robinson
will be the back that ultimately leads the team in rushing, but
even if that happens, his fantasy value won’t be tremendous
because he’s unlikely to average even 10 carries per game.
If the Saints didn’t employ a triumvirate of running backs,
it would be a good match-up against an Atlanta team that was weak
against the run last season.
Only the Bears surrendered more rushing yards and a higher YPC
average than the Falcons last season, but they managed to rank
in a tie for 18th in rushing scores yielded. This helped Atlanta
place eighth in fantasy points allowed to running backs last year
instead of finishing in the top-five (or bottom-five, depending
how you want to look at it).
Projections:
Drew
Brees: 305 pass yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
Khiry
Robinson: 40 rush yds
Pierre
Thomas: 35 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Mark
Ingram: 20 rush yds
Marques
Colston: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Brandin
Cooks: 55 rec yds
Kenny
Stills: 40 rec yds
Jimmy
Graham: 105 rec yds, 2 TD
Passing Game Thoughts: Injuries
to both Roddy White and Julio Jones meant the highest-scoring
receiver in fantasy last season for the Falcons was Harry Douglas,
a scenario which helped doom Atlanta’s chances for success.
When healthy, the combo is dynamic and Jones is among the top
five-to-ten fantasy wideouts. Matt Ryan threw for more than 4,500
yards and 26 scores last season despite the injury troubles at
receiver, but did toss 17 picks. He should be better this year
with a healthy Jones and White, and even with a solid New Orleans
pass defense, Ryan should be starting this week.
The Saints made a major turnaround defensively in 2013, going
from a unit that gave up oceans of yards in 2012 to one that ended
last season ranked second in the league in pass defense. Just
two teams allowed fewer fantasy points to QBs last year, and only
six teams permitted more points to WRs and TEs. New Orleans should
continue to be tough on passers this season, especially with the
addition of safety Jairus Byrd.
Running Game Thoughts: Steven Jackson,
like his teammates at wide receiver, suffered through an injury-riddled
2013 season, and then missed most of training camp this year with
a hamstring injury. He’s obviously not a RB1, and it would
be difficult to imagine him as an RB2 except based on match-up.
Jackson did run for 140 yards and a score in two games against
the Saints last season, but it’s hard to envision him getting
a big workload in the opener after missing so much of camp.
New Orleans wasn’t quite as good against the run as they
were the pass, ranking 18th in yards allowed and 28th in YPC,
but they tied for 11th in rushing scores yielded and surrendered
the 11th-fewest fantasy points in the league to running backs.
Projections:
Matt
Ryan: 250 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Steven
Jackson: 40 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Jacquizz
Rodgers: 15 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Julio
Jones: 90 rec yds, 2 TD
Roddy
White: 65 rec yds
Harry
Douglas: 35 rec yds
Levine
Toilolo: 15 rec yds
Prediction: Saints 27, Falcons 21
^ Top
Redskins at Texans
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: After a lousy
preseason, there have been some calls for Kirk Cousins to start
over Robert Griffin III. Fantasy owners hope that isn’t
the case, because RG3 brings something to the table Cousins simply
cannot replicate – points from rushing yards. Yet owners
will still get the majority of their points from Griffin’s
ability to throw the ball, and he has a new weapon which should
only help in DeSean Jackson. Jackson and Pierre Garcon, along
with promising tight end Jordan Reed, should all be valuable fantasy
contributors this year, though this week’s match-up with
the Texans is a tough one.
Houston’s defense contains a boatload of talent, and despite
the fact that they were tied for 21st in passing touchdowns allowed
last season and ranked third-to-last in sacks, the team sill surrendered
the third-fewest passing yards in the league. The Texans gave
up the eighth-fewest fantasy points to QBs in 2013 and tied for
seventh-fewest points allowed to WRs. Their returning talent,
along with a pair of key additions – Jadeveon Clowney and
defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel – should continue to
make them a difficult match-up.
Running Game Thoughts: Alfred Morris
had a very good sophomore campaign in 2013. Problem was, it wasn’t
as good as his rookie season. Nonetheless, he ended up 14th among
RBs in fantasy scoring last year despite being no threat as a
pass-catcher. Morris should continue to produce as the unquestioned
lead back for Washington, and he has a decent match-up with Houston.
The Texans were 23rd in rushing yards given up and 22nd in YPC
allowed last season. Yet they still tied for 11th in rushing touchdowns
permitted and wound up 14th in fantasy points allowed to opposing
RBs.
Projections:
Robert
Griffin III: 215 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 40 rush yds
Alfred
Morris: 95 rush yds, 1 TD
DeSean
Jackson: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Pierre
Garcon: 65 rec yds
Jordan
Reed: 40 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Houston’s
quarterback of the future will likely suit up for some college
team this week, so in the meantime they have veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick
at the helm. While not a star, Fitzpatrick is capable of putting
up some decent fantasy numbers because he’s more of a rushing
threat than most probably realize (225 yards, three touchdowns
last season). He still has Andre Johnson to throw to, which is
nice. Johnson was 12th in fantasy scoring at receiver last season,
and remains a WR1 heading into this season. Houston also returns
DeAndre Hopkins and tight end Garrett Graham, each of whom will
have their moments but won’t measure up to Johnson this
week. Graham (back) is a gametime decision so check the inactive
list on Sunday morning.
There are a bunch of wordy adjectives one can use to describe
Washington’s pass defense in 2013, but the best one is the
simplest – average. They were 20th in passing yards allowed,
tied for 21st in passing scores ceded and 21st in sacks. As far
as fantasy points allowed, they gave up either the 10th or 11th
most to QBs, WRs and TEs, so at least they were consistent. The
Redskins did add Jason Hatcher in the off-season to help bolster
their defensive line, and they still have the likes of Ryan Kerrigan,
Brian Orakpo and DeAngelo Hall, so nobody should be surprised
if the team takes a step forward defensively.
Running Game Thoughts: The Texans
lost Ben Tate to the Browns this offseason, but didn’t seem
to fret, remaining content with Arian Foster despite his injury
issues last year. If healthy, Foster should be a workhorse (again)
this season, and among fantasy’s most productive backs.
A true dual-threat, he has an opportunity to register big numbers
this week against Washington.
Though the Redskins were 17th in rushing yards surrendered and
14th in YPC given up, no team in the NFL allowed more rushing
touchdowns than they did, with 23. Put all that together and you
have a team that yielded the fourth-most fantasy points in the
league to running backs in 2013.
Projections:
Ryan
Fitzpatrick: 245 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 25 rush yds
Arian
Foster: 105 rush yds, 1 TD, 35 rec yds
Andre
Johnson: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
DeAndre
Hopkins: 75 rec yds
Garrett
Graham: 35 rec yds
Prediction: Texans 20, Redskins
17 ^ Top
Panthers at Buccaneers
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Cam Newton
and Greg Olsen return. Yup, that’s about it, because the
Panthers replaced their top four wideouts, which obviously included
Steve Smith. That has meant the focus among fantasy owners has
been mostly on rookie Kelvin Benjamin because he’s 6-foot-5,
a first-round pick, and somebody has to catch the ball in Carolina.
Yet Newton’s top pass-catcher will likely be Olsen, who
somewhat quietly had more than 800 receiving yards last season.
Newton is questionable to play this week due tot a rib injury
and facing an improving Bucs defense, you likely have better options
at QB.
The Buccaneers have spent a lot of resources in draft picks and
money on defensive linemen in recent years, with the latest addition
this off-season being defensive end Michael Johnson. Still, only
four teams relinquished more touchdown passes last year, and Tampa
was tied for 23rd in the league in sacks. Johnson should help
from that perspective, and with the maturation of the likes of
Gerald McCoy, Adrian Clayborn and Mark Barron, it’s doubtful
the Bucs will again give up the fourth-most fantasy points in
the NFL to QBs, which is where they ended last season.
Running Game Thoughts: The Carolina
running attack has long been a headache for fantasy owners, even
with the constant injuries from Jonathan Stewart. Newton, Stewart,
DeAngelo Williams, and Mike Tolbert will each handle the rock,
but guessing which will be most productive each given week is
a near impossibility, and that includes this week against the
Bucs.
Tampa ranked 15th in the NFL in rushing yards permitted, 16th
in YPC allowed, and tied for eighth in rushing scores given up.
Yet of the 10 rushing touchdowns they allowed, just four were
by RBs, which is one reason why the Bucs ceded the seventh-fewest
fantasy points in the league to players at that position.
Projections:
Cam
Newton: 230 pass yds, 1 TD, 40 rush yds, 1 TD
DeAngelo
Williams: 50 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Jonathan
Stewart: 35 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Kelvin
Benjamin: 65 rec yds
Jerricho
Cotchery: 40 rec yds
Greg
Olsen: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing Game Thoughts: After playing
very well in replacement of Jay Cutler last season, Josh McCown
gets an opportunity to start for the Bucs. He probably won’t
get many opportunities to start for fantasy owners, unless they
are in very, very deep leagues. Yet at least one of his targets
will – Vincent Jackson. Jackson was 14th in fantasy scoring
at wideout last season, and even competent quarterback play should
make him even more valuable. Tampa also employs a couple of rookies
that could make a fantasy impact in Mike Evans and tight end Austin
Seferian-Jenkins, but they should be on benches this week against
Carolina.
There were fewer teams better than the Panthers against the pass
last season. They ranked sixth in passing yards surrendered, tied
for fifth in interceptions, tied for third-fewest touchdown passes
allowed and led the NFL in sacks. And while tight ends had a bit
of success against them in 2013, only Seattle gave up fewer fantasy
points to QBs, and only Seattle and Tennessee allowed fewer fantasy
points to WRs. The team’s core defensive players return,
so the Panthers should continue to be a bad match-up for opposing
players – and fantasy owners.
Running Game Thoughts: Doug Martin
suffered a shoulder injury, which cut short his season in 2013,
but he hadn’t been playing up to the level he showed his
rookie season. Martin had just one touchdown in six games covering
139 touches last year, and averaged only 3.6 YPC. He’s still
a back that has to start every week if for no reason other than
the number of touches he’ll get, but be careful expecting
too much out of Martin against the Panthers.
Carolina was very good against the pass last year, but spectacular
against the run. They were second in the NFL in rushing yards
allowed, 12th in YPC given up, and tied with the Seahawks for
fewest rushing scores surrendered. Yet they did allow nearly 700
receiving yards by opposing backs, which is why they weren’t
first or second in fantasy points allowed to RBs, but tied for
fourth.
Projections:
Josh
McCown: 180 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Doug
Martin: 65 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Vincent
Jackson: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Mike
Evans: 45 rec yds
Brandon
Myers: 30 rec yds
Prediction: Panthers 17, Buccaneers
13 ^ Top
Bills at Bears
- (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: The key to
the Bills passing game in 2014, will be the development of EJ
Manuel, who had an extremely inconsistent rookie season. Manuel
threw for 1,972 yards with 11 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions
as a rookie. He also ran for 186 yards and 2 scores. He compiled
those statistics in only ten games, as he was forced to miss six
games with multiple knee injuries. Manuel was considered a raw
prospect coming out of Florida State, so one could look at his
decent completion percentage (58.8%) as a rookie as a positive,
and hope to see some improvement in his sophomore campaign. However,
Manuel struggled with accuracy and his decision making throughout
the preseason to the point the coaching staff even gave him playing
time during the last preseason game hoping for a turnaround. The
Bills recently lured veteran Kyle Orton out of retirement to step
in if Manuel’s struggles continue. The Bills made a bold
move to trade up in this year’s NFL draft to acquire wide
receiver Sammy Watkins in order to surround their young franchise
quarterback with the weapons he’ll need to succeed. They
also brought in former Buccaneer Mike Williams which should give
Manuel a legitimate red zone target. The staff will also hope
sophomore Robert Woods can be a dependable possession wide receiver
and security blanket for their young quarterback. Watkins reinjured
his ribs in the last preseason game, but is practicing and is
expected to play. The team will continue to feature a high tempo
offense that will attempt to run a high number of plays, but if
the passing game doesn’t click, the volume just won’t
be there. Despite what could be considered a nice matchup, depending
on a member of the Bills passing game early in the season is not
advised.
The once mighty Bears’ defense finished last season ranked
as the second to worst overall defense in the league. The passing
defense showed better statistically, finishing 15th while allowing
233 yards per game and 25 touchdowns through the air, but that
was more of a product of teams slashing their run defense than
anything else. The team wasn’t able to generate a serious
pass rush and were tied for last in the league with only 31 sacks
on the season. On the positive side, the unit was still able to
turn the ball over, intercepting 19 passes on the year, led by
cornerback Tim Jennings’ 4 interceptions. Safety Chris Conte
suffered a recent concussion and has not yet been cleared to play
in Week 1, but the expectation is that he will play.
Running Game Thoughts: The Bills finished behind only the Eagles
in team rushing yards last season, finishing with 2,307 yards
on the ground. They should once again feature a RBBC comprised
of C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, who split carries almost evenly
last season. It would be easy to write off Fred Jackson, who turned
33 years old back in February, but then again the man is coming
off of a season where he put up 1,283 total yards while scoring
10 touchdowns at age 32. Spiller was a disappointment for fantasy
owners last season, where he was a first round pick in many leagues
based on his tantalizing skill set and his coaching staff’s
promise to “run him until he pukes”. An early season
high ankle sprain led to a decrease in his workload, but he was
still effective running the ball, averaging 4.6 yards per carry.
Spiller features elite level speed, great lateral agility and
a toughness that belies his smallish stature. With the team’s
commitment to the run and the Bear’s sieve of a run defense,
both Spiller and Jackson are recommended fantasy starters.
The Bears’ run defense finished the season ranked dead
last in the NFL, as teams ran all over them. The unit allowed
a whopping 161.4 yards per game and 22 touchdowns on the ground.
The team didn’t do much to address these issues this offseason,
so until we are shown otherwise starting a running back facing
the Bears is an easy decision.
Projections:
EJ Manuel: 185 pass yds 1 TD, 2 INTs, 25 rush yds
Fred Jackson: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
C.J. Spiller: 105 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Sammy Watkins: 45 rec yds
Robert Woods: 20 rec yds
Mike Williams: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Scott Chandler: 15 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Year one of the Marc Trestman era saw the
Bears finish the season as a top 5 passing offense despite losing
their starting quarterback for a chunk of the season. The Bears
finished with 4,281 yards and 32 touchdowns through the air. Starting
quarterback Jay Cutler missed five games, and finished the season
with 2,621 passing yards and 19 scores. The offense saw a breakout
season from second year player Alshon Jeffrey who accrued 1,412
receiving yards. Brandon Marshall finished with 1,291 and 12 touchdowns,
making the Bears starting duo one of the league’s most dangerous.
Marshall and Jay Cutler have a long history together that goes
back to their time in Denver, so both will be hoping for a full
16 games together this season. While Jeffrey seemed to thrive
more during backup quarterback Josh McCown’s time under
center, fantasy owners shouldn’t read too much into that
fact. He’s a talent that any quarterback will utilize. The
6’7” tight end Martellus Bennett combines with Marshall
(6’4”) and Jeffrey (6’4”) to form the
most massive collection of starting pass catchers in the league,
making life easy for any starting quarterback. If Cutler stays
healthy, he could be in for the best season of his career. The
Bears are loaded at the skill positions, also featuring Matt Forte
who offers big production in the passing game at the running back
position and thrived in offensive guru Trestman’s system
last year. This isn’t your Mike Ditka or even your Lovie
Smith’s Bears’ offense.
The young Bills’ defense made great strides in 2013 and
should be a strength once again this season. The Bills featured
a top-five passing unit last season, allowing only 204 yards per
game but did give up 28 passing touchdowns. The Bills have always
had a ball-hawking secondary and last season the team finished
behind only Seattle in interceptions, with 23. Free safety Jarius
Byrd has been one of the league’s top playmaking defensive
backs. Cutler has never been confused with the “game manager”
types at his position. The Bills secondary could sway momentum
if they can force a few mistakes this Sunday.
Running Game Thoughts: Matt Forte has been one of the NFL’s
more underappreciated running backs in the league since entering
the NFL out of Tulane. Even fantasy owners have a perception of
him being injury prone despite him only missing five games in
six NFL seasons. Forte is coming off his best season as a professional
and at 28 years old he should still have some tread left on his
tires. Forte rushed for 1,339 yards and 9 touchdowns while adding
74 receptions for another 594 yards and 3 more scores. Simply
put, he’s a versatile weapon that should see heavy usage
in a high scoring offense. The Bears drafted Ka’Deem Carey
out of Arizona with the hope that he would secure the backup job,
and while he is now listed as second on the depth chart, a poor
preseason could mean that he won’t be active on some game
days. Former Chief Shaun Draughn could see a few carries spelling
Forte, but is unlikely to be a fantasy factor.
The Bills presented an easy matchup for running backs last season,
but did however manage to keep them out of the end zone. The team
allowed 128 yards per game on the ground, but only allowed 10
rushing touchdowns. The loss of last season’s leading tackler
Kiko Alonso to a knee injury could be a serious blow to their
run defense. He’ll miss at least the first six games while
the Bills rely on third round rookie Preston Brown to fill his
shoes.
Projections:
Jay Cutler: 285 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 15 rush yds
Matt Forte: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 45 rec yds
Shaun Draughn: 25 rush yds
Santonio Holmes: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Brandon Marshall: 85 rec yds
Alshon Jeffery: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Martellus Bennett: 40 rec yds
Prediction: Bears 34, Bills 24
^ Top
Bengals at Ravens
- (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton
isn’t considered among the elite quarterbacks in the NFL,
but in most scoring formats he finished as a top-five quarterback
in 2013. However, his gaudy passing stats came under offensive
coordinator Jay Gruden’s pass-centric game plans, and Gruden
has been replaced by Hue Jackson. Jackson has promised to tailor
his offense towards the running game which makes it unlikely that
the Bengals finish in the top-ten in pass attempts again in 2014.
Dalton has his shortcomings, the most obvious being his deep ball
accuracy but teaming up with a dynamic playmaker like A.J. Green;
he’ll still have his share of big games. However, many times
Green is forced to adjust to the ball in the air slowing him down
and keeping him from scoring even more long touchdowns than he
does. Marvin Jones suffered a broken foot and is expected to miss
the early season games, but Mohammad Sanu has stepped up in his
place through the preseason and should be a more than adequate
compliment on the opposite side of the field from Green. Running
back Giovani Bernard adds playmaking ability out of the backfield
and tight ends Germaine Greschem and Tyler Eifert present additional
targets for Dalton to work with. This could be a make or break
year for the red headed quarterback, and a solid ground game should
lead to even better efficiency and hopefully a reduction in costly
mistakes. Dalton’s 20 interceptions last season and his
horrendous playoff appearances put him squarely on the hot seat
in 2014.
The Ravens faced many defensive defections following their miraculous
Super Bowl run in 2012 and what was once a feared defense became
mediocre as the young players never really gelled. The Ravens
allowed 230 passing yards per game and 25 touchdown passes in
2013, but the unit should show some improvement this season. Terrell
Suggs and Elvis Dumervil form a formidable duo rushing the passer.
Suggs struggled late last season after adding some weight, but
has slimmed back down and his torn Achilles should be way back
in his rearview mirror now.
Running Game Thoughts: As mentioned previously new offensive
coordinator Hue Jackson has promised a more balanced attack in
order to protect Andy Dalton from having to do too much, and thus
limiting his mistakes. The dynamic Giovani Bernard should be the
focal point of the offense after losing too many touches to the
pedestrian Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis last season, but a “thunder
and lightning” offense should still be in effect. The difference
this season is that the “thunder” should pack more
punch as rookie Jeremy Hill is a superior talent to the now released
Green-Ellis. Hill was auditioned for a big role in the last preseason
game and responded with 160 total yards on 26 touches. Bernard
will be heavily involved in the passing game with the hopes of
getting him out in space. At times last season he showed change
of direction abilities reminiscent of Barry Sanders. Jackson was
able to use both Darren McFadden and Michael Bush very effective
during his time in Oakland making the Bengals backfield a very
attractive option.
The Ravens’ run defense remained stingy last year, allowing
only 105 yards per game and 7 touchdowns on the ground. The team
could not be more solid up the middle with Haloti Ngata at nose
tackle and Daryl Smith at middle linebacker. The battle in the
trenches could be the key to this NFC North matchup.
Projections:
Andy Dalton: 235 pass yds 1 TD, 5 rush yds
Jeremy Hill: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Giovani Bernard: 55 rush yds, 45 rec yds
A.J. Green: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Mohamed Sanu: 40 rec yds
Jermaine Gresham: 30 rec yds
Tyler Eifert: 15 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco struggled during his first season
after being paid like a franchise quarterback. While he threw
for more yards than he ever has in his career (3,912) his TD-to-INT
ratio was in the red (19:22) for the first time in his career.
The offensive line did not do him any favors as he was sacked
a career high 48 times, but Flacco struggled with accuracy and
the offense never looked in sync. The team brought in Gary Kubiak
as offensive coordinator to replace Jim Caldwell who departed
to take the Lions head coaching job, and Kubiak has vowed to protect
Flacco better by using bootlegs and moving pockets. Flacco isn’t
the most nimble quarterback, but can move well for a big man.
The team added veteran Steve Smith who looked to be on his last
legs with the Panthers last season, but has been reborn so far
this preseason. Smith and Torrey Smith should give the team decent
production on the outside, but the true beneficiary of the new
offense should be Dennis Pitta. Pitta is now 100% in his recovery
from hip surgery and has been featured all over the field in Kubiak’s
tight end friendly scheme. Flacco will likely never be a fantasy
QB1, but a bounce back year for the Baltimore passing game is
a solid bet to take.
The Bengals finished the season as the 5th ranked pass defense,
allowing 209 yards per game and 22 touchdown passes on the season.
The return of Geno Atkins from ACL surgery should help the pass
rush that missed his push up the middle last season. An already
strong secondary was bolstered by first round draft pick Darqueze
Dernard this offseason. The Bengals should once again trot out
one of the league’s most feared defenses in 2014.
Running Game Thoughts: Ray Rice was suspended for the first two
games of 2014 after infamously being caught on tape dragging his
then fiancée out of an Atlantic City elevator after allegedly
knocking her unconscious. Third year back out of Temple Bernard
Pierce steps into the starting role and should be an ideal fit
for Gary Kubiak’s one cut and go run blocking scheme. Pierce
missed some time in the preseason with a concussion but has been
cleared to play and should see significant carries. The 6-foot
230-pound back has surprising speed for a back his size and will
be looking to make it tough on Kubiak and head Coach Jon Harbaugh
when Ray Rice returns. The run blocking was subpar last season,
but the new scheme could breathe some life back into the unit.
The Bengals feature feared line backer Vontaze Burfict who led
the team with 115 tackles last season. Overall the Bengals finished
as the fifth-ranked run defense allowing lee than 100 yards per
game rushing and a mere 6 touchdowns on the season in 2013. This
is not an ideal matchup for Pierce, but the volume he receives
could make him a RB2 in Week 1.
Projections:
Joe Flacco: 245 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 15 rush yd
Bernard Pierce: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Justin Forsett: 15 rush yds, 20 rec yards
Torrey Smith: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Steve Smith: 45 rec yds
Dennis Pitta: 70 rec yds
Prediction: Bengals 20, Ravens
17 ^ Top
Browns at Steelers
- (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: The Browns
drafted Johnny “Football” Manziel in the first round
of the 2014 NFL Draft, but its journeyman Brian Hoyer who will
get the start in Week 1 at the quarterback position. Neither player
performed well this preseason, but new head coach Rich Pettine
has decided that the veteran gives them the best chance to win.
Hoyer started his career as a backup to Tom Brady in New England
and has spent time with Arizona and Pittsburgh before landing
last season in Cleveland where he played well in two starts before
tearing his ACL. Working against Hoyer is the fact that star wide
receiver Josh Gordon has been suspended for the season leaving
the team perilously thin at the position. Former Cowboy Miles
Austin has had some success in the NFL but chronic hamstring injuries
have ruined a once promising career. Andrew Hawkins has the speed
and quickness to make some big plays but at 5’7” he’s
stretched as a starting wideout. It will be tight end Jordan Cameron
that should be the focus of the passing game. In the two games
that Gordon was suspended last season, Cameron caught 14 passes
for 203 yards and a score. The athletic 6’5” tight
end should at least match his 80 catches for 917 yards and 7 touchdowns
from last season, but the upside is there for more.
The Steelers aging defense managed to still be effective against
the pass last season allowing 221.6 yards per game with 22 touchdowns,
but only managed to grab 10 interceptions. Coordinator Dick LeBeau
still has a creative defensive mind and the secondary doesn’t
lack in talent so another top 10 season could be in the works.
Running Game Thoughts: The Browns targeted former Texan Ben Tate
in free agency, and with his former coach being a Mike Shanahan
disciple, Tate is very familiar with offensive coordinator Kyle
Shanahan’s run blocking schemes. Tate is a hard-nosed runner
that doesn’t have much wiggle but has shown good vision
and burst and doesn’t leave many yards on the field. The
team drafted Terrance West in the third round of the draft, and
talked him up as a serious threat to Tate’s job during OTAs
and early camp, but the small school talent seemed to fade away
as the preseason wore on. The Browns feature an above average
offensive line, and will lean heavily of the run as a staple of
their offense. Tate has shown a penchant for getting nicked up
even in a limited role in the past, but if he stays healthy a
strong RB2 season is well within reach based the very nice situation
he finds himself a part of.
Where the Steelers truly showed their age was with their inability
to shut down opposing running games. The Steelers allowed 115.6
yards per game and 18 rushing touchdowns on the season. Troy Polamalu
put together a healthy season in 2013 but wasn’t the force
that he once was as age and a long injury history look to be taking
their toll on the long haired wonder.
Projections:
Brian Hoyer: 205 pass yds 1 TD, 1 INT
Ben Tate: 85 rush yds, 2 TDs, 20 rec yds
Terrance West: 35 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Miles Austin: 55 rec yds
Andrew Hawkins: 30 rec yds
Jordan Cameron: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: It took a while for Ben Roethlisberger to
get used to offensive coordinator Todd Haley’s dink and
dunk type offense after spending years in Bruce Arians’
downfield attacking scheme, but in the second half of last season
the offense was humming along nicely and Big Ben was putting up
QB1 statistics. Antonio Brown broke out big time after the departure
of top wide receiver Mike Wallace in free agency catching 110
passes for nearly 1,500 yards and 8 touchdowns. Brown is a possession
type wide receiver that can get open over the middle and make
things happen after the catch, but can also get deep on opposing
corners. The team let Emmanuel Sanders walk in free agency and
will expect second year wide receiver Markus Wheaton to seize
the number two job. Wheaton and Roethlisberger have not exhibited
good chemistry during the preseason but they should get on the
same page soon enough. The underrated former Saint Lance Moore
(out this week with a groin injury) rounds out the starting trio
and could become a Ben favorite as the season progress. A healthy,
albeit aging, Heath Miller should also squeeze out another productive
season and should find himself as Ben’s second after Brown
look more often than not.
The Browns already had one of the top cornerbacks in the league
in Joe Haden, but traded back to spot 8 and chose Justin Gilbert
in the first round of this year’s draft. Gilbert has struggled
through the preseason but has the talent to make life miserable
for passing games facing the Browns as he learns on the job. Haden
should shadow Antonio Brown throughout the game but that didn’t
hurt Brown much the last time that happened, as he was able to
grab 5 balls for 80 yards and a score.
Running Game Thoughts: Le’Veon Bell didn’t have an
efficient season as a rookie but his heavy volume of touches allowed
him to put up some nice fantasy statistics. In his defense, Bell
missed the entire preseason and the first three games of the regular
season so his learning curve was steep. He finished the year with
860 yards rushing with 8 touchdowns and was surprisingly a big
part of the passing attack catching 45 balls for 399 yards. At
only 21 years old (now 22) he was the youngest running back in
the league and has room to improve. The Steelers brought in some
tougher competition for those touches, however, signing LeGarrette
Blount who finished the season strong for New England and excelled
in the playoffs. Blount lacks versatility, but is a very good
power runner who can help the Steelers wear down opposing defenses.
Cleveland has a very strong front seven after adding former Arizona
Cardinal stand out run stopper Carlos Dansby to the mix. In 2013
the Browns gave up 111.3 yards per game and 13 scores on the ground.
Those numbers could very well improve this season.
Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 255 pass yds, 2 TDs, 20 rush yds
Le’Veon
Bell: 75 rush yds, 40 rec yds, 1 TD
LeGarrette Blount: 45 rush yds, 1 TD
Antonio Brown: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Markus Wheaton: 30 rec yds
Lance Moore: 25 rec yds
Heath Miller: 40 rec yds
Prediction: Steelers 27, Browns
24 ^ Top
|