Recently, I went through the process of breaking down offensive
coordinator tendencies in the AFC
and NFC, highlighting
backfield and target shares. That work set the stage for last
week and this week, as I attempt to use that information to
lay the foundation for how much players might be utilized this year.
The problem with a lot of fantasy football projections is the math
doesn't add up when to a realistic team total in the end. Unless
you are keeping a close eye on the overall play total for every
team, it's easy to have one team finishing with 800 offensive plays
and another going over 1,200 when all the individual numbers are
calculated. (As a point of reference, most teams run somewhere between
950 and 1,050 offensive plays per season. A few will exceed that
range, while several tend to finish with around 900.)
Being able to predict opportunity - perhaps the most important
variable in fantasy football - is more than half of the battle
when it comes to being able to construct accurate rankings. Thus,
the goal over the next two weeks: provide analysis on some of
the issues that played a factor in the way I divided the workload
for each team. While I tried to accurately project how many passes
each quarterback might throw, I ask that you pay more attention
to the actual number of pass attempts and less to the individual
quarterback breakdown. Also, every team finishes a season with
several more pass attempts than targets, so your eyes are not
deceiving you on the team totals.
The bolded numbers near the top of the middle three columns
are the totals for each column. The bolded numbers in the last
two columns reflect each team's projected run-pass ratio. Players
with a
next to their name have some degree of injury concern. Players
with a
next to their name have a higher than normal chance of losing
their job at some point during the season.
2019 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 1,039 2018 Total: 850
A common misnomer of college spread offenses - such as the ones
Chip Kelly and Kingsbury ran at Oregon and Texas Tech, respectively
- is they don't run the ball very much. While owners need to keep
in mind the college game allows for more plays, it is still notable
that Kingsbury's last two offenses in Lubbock ran 423 times (in
2018) and 449 times (in 2017). With Murray almost certain to run
100-plus times by himself, tempo should enable Arizona to go well
over 400 rushing attempts even if it throws the ball 600-plus
times. The difficult task here is figuring out just how often
Johnson will need to catch his breath in an offense that figures
to operate as quickly as any in the NFL this season. IF Murray
and Johnson both stay healthy for all 16 games, the fact the Cardinals
don't have a great offensive line isn't going to matter as much
as it might for other teams. Athletic quarterbacks have consistently
buoyed the efficiency of their running backs because they slow
down backside pursuit. Because Murray brings instant credibility
as a runner and Kingsbury will stress the defense horizontally
(by spreading things out) as often as possible, Johnson will see
running lanes on occasion he could have only dreamed about in
2018.
One of the bigger mysteries to me is Fitzgerald's draft stock.
It took an archaic offensive approach last season to stop him
from amassing at least 145 targets for a fourth consecutive season.
His age is what it is and he will eventually slow down, but do
owners believe it will happen when he is at worst a 1B receiver
on what may be the most high-volume offense in the NFL this year?
He's more likely to have a 20 percent target share in an offense
that should attempt at least 600 passes than not. Kirk could easily
rival him, although owners should be more than pleased if he comes
relatively close to my projection. His time is coming, but can
he really knock Fitzgerald off his pedestal in his second season?
The other pass-catcher of note should be Isabella. Favorably compared
to Brandin Cooks by some draft evaluators, the rookie is going
to create some splash plays even if his target share is nowhere
in the neighborhood of Fitzgerald and Kirk's. Kingsbury could
easily decide to drive defensive coordinators insane by regularly
putting a 5-9 waterbug like Isabella and 6-5 monster like Butler
in the slot together or he could invert his receivers (putting
big boys Fitzgerald and Butler inside and the smaller wideouts
- Kirk and Isabella - outside).
2019 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 997 2018 Total: 968
While coaches being optimistic is nothing new, HC Dan Quinn appeared
to be almost giddy at what he saw from Freeman during the spring.
With Smith a capable reserve but hardly the explosive threat Tevin
Coleman was, Atlanta may try to lean a bit heavier on Freeman
- much like it did in 2015-16 when Coleman struggled to stay healthy.
That's not to suggest Freeman will push 250 carries again, but
this offense will score and have leads to preserve in the fourth
quarter. Smith getting almost 30 percent of the carry share is
an ambitious goal for a player who averaged 3.5 YPC on his 90
attempts as a rookie, but Atlanta knows it needs to be smart about
Freeman's workload. Ollison is a name to keep in mind as a potential
TD vulture and short-yardage option. He was drafted with a very
specific purpose in mind: keep Freeman from absorbing more punishment
in between the tackles than he already does.
While I do have some fear new OC Dirk Koetter will find a way
to screw this offense up, I don't think he'll screw up the part
about making sure Jones sees at least a quarter of the targets.
After that, it gets a bit dicey. Ridley is probably ready to move
into the 20 percent target-share club, but Sanu has the right
combination of Ryan's trust and ability to move the chains to
keep it from happening. (Freeman playing all 16 games may also
play a role in suppressing the number of targets Ridley sees.)
The continuing development of Ridley also doesn't bode well for
Hooper's target share, although Koetter's recent history with
tight ends in Tampa Bay - albeit with a quarterback noted for
his dependence on tight ends - suggests there is hope. Quinn also
did his part to fuel the Hooper buzz in mid-July, telling the
Atlanta Journal-Constitution he believed his tight end is "ready
to go to another level." This offense may not enough volume
- especially if the defense stays healthy and Freeman puts in
close to a full season - to get four players 88 or more targets
again. Hooper is capable of repeating last season, but there is
a better chance he fails to hit last year's marks than surpasses
them.
2019 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 978 2018 Total: 979
Last year at this time, most of the world believed McCaffrey
wasn't a feature back. This year, more people than not seem to
believe he is worthy of the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. (Fantasy
football is funny like that.) There are two important things to
remember looking ahead to this season: 1) McCaffrey did not score
his first rushing touchdown until Week 8 - the same week Newton
ran for his last one and 2) if McCaffrey is going to continue
in upwards of 120 targets, his carries are almost certainly going
to be capped in the low 200s. That works out just fine for PPR
owners, of course, but can we be for certain OC Norv Turner has
decided to let McCaffrey handle goal-line work in order to lessen
Newton's injury risk? Or has McCaffrey become too important to
the offense to risk him absorbing more punishment, particularly
at the goal line? Look, this is a player I
said could be this generation's Brian Westbrook or Marshall Faulk
when he was coming out of the draft, so I've never really had
a question he can be a featured back. But what I think doesn't
matter to Turner or HC Ron Rivera. Owners need to accept the possibility
McCaffrey could disappoint in the touchdown department in 2019
if Turner and Rivera decide to make Newton the top option at the
goal line again.
A couple of weeks ago, I noted Moore didn't play more than 33
snaps in a game until Week 8 and Samuel didn't see more than 26
snaps until Week 12. They are obviously both projected to be the
main targets at receiver this season. Even in an offense with
a running back accounting for at least 20 percent of the target
share, there is room for two receivers like Moore and Samuel to
split 40 percent fairly equally - something they may actually
do if Samuel can play a full season for the first time in his
career. Two of the reasons this is possible is because Carolina
doesn't have a slot receiver of note - other than whenever McCaffrey
lines up there - and Olsen has had trouble staying on the field.
If Olsen makes one final healthy stand before heading off into
the sunset in 2019, then there's a good chance Moore and Samuel
will take a bit of a hit. Thomas's projection is almost entirely
the result of the likelihood Olsen won't play more than half of
the season.
2019 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 1017 2018 Total: 980
The Bears ran the ball 468 times last season; all but 99 of those
attempts were by running backs. They traded up in the draft to
acquire Montgomery when they already had Davis and Cohen on the
roster, using what limited draft assets they had to make the move.
The offseason has been filled with high praise for the rookie,
such as HC Matt Nagy saying he could understand the comparisons
to Kareem Hunt and how advanced he was as a route-runner. While
owners cannot simply dismiss the presence of Davis or shoehorn
Montgomery into Jordan Howard's workload last year (250 carries,
20 catches), the Bears have made it quite clear with all their
actions so far that they want the rookie to be the centerpiece
of the running game. Due to the respect I have for Davis, I'm
being conservative with Montgomery's workload, but it would be
a shock if he isn't in the same neighborhood as Howard was touch-wise
regardless of game script. With three-down backs like Montgomery
and Davis around, it's hard to see Cohen getting more than five
or six carries per game. Of course, he will continue to be a dynamic
weapon in the passing game and someone Nagy may try to draw up
more plays for after he finished with 91 targets in 2018.
It probably doesn't get talked about nearly enough that Robinson
missed three games last year and probably needed every bit of
the first half of the season to feel comfortable coming off ACL
surgery. He was rarely ever healthy in 2018 even when he was "healthy."
While trusting Trubisky to be a consistently good quarterback
week in and week out will be the biggest hurdle Robinson has to
overcome this year, it actually doesn't require that big of a
leap of faith to say he could reach my target projection, which
would almost guarantee him about 75 catches. As long as Miller
(54 targets, 10.7 percent target share) can stay healthy this
year, it would not surprise me at all if he and Gabriel (93, 18.5)
flip-flopped in terms of target and target share. For as good
of a deep threat as Gabriel is, his numbers were very disappointing
- outside of two games - for a player who had as much opportunity
as he did. In September, Burton averaged 16 yards per catch and
9.8 yards per target. His YPC and YPT dropped every month after
that. He actually saw more involvement over the final four weeks
(23 targets) than he did at any point during the season, but it's
going to be hard for anyone to produce with a 7.6 YPC and 5.3
YPT.
2019 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 961 2018 Total: 932
Most owners see Elliott as a player who just needs a little bit
of positive touchdown regression in order to be the clear overall
RB1. I see a player working with a first-time play-caller in Kellen
Moore coming off a 380-touch regular season (400-plus if the playoffs
are included) who is a concern off the field and a threat to lose
a chunk of the volume he saw in the passing game a season ago.
Many are familiar with the first three issues, but the fourth
is arguably every bit as important. Witten is back, Cobb - for
however long he can stay healthy - is a more dynamic slot option
than Cole Beasley was and Pollard was drafted to add a "Kamara
element" to the offense. Never mind the possibility of a
holdout. That's a lot of risk for a player going in the top half
of the first round. In short, there is virtually no chance Zeke
comes anywhere close to 95 targets again. Fortunately, there shouldn't
be much concern when it comes to his carry share; in all three
of his NFL seasons, Elliott has either handled at least 64.7 percent
of the team's carries or was easily on pace to do so before serving
a suspension.
Cowboys tight ends accounted for a 17.8 percent target share
last year; Witten hasn't had a target share lower than 17.9 (2017)
since at least 2014. While Witten doesn't figure to make a huge
actual impact in 2019, owners aren't yet grasping grasp how much
of an impact Witten at even at 15 percent will have on the number
of targets for everyone else. Cooper averaged 8.4 targets upon
arriving in Dallas; I have him slightly under that mark, although
he will likely be one of the least affected. Gallup also probably
won't notice much of a difference if he continues to see the bulk
of his looks 10 or more yards downfield. He really wasn't used
all that much - or nearly as much as he should have been - until
about the time Cooper arrived and he still finished with 68 targets.
He is in line for a healthy increase. We've already discussed
how Witten's presence will hurt Elliott, but it will likely affect
Cobb the most. Both players are going to be working the same parts
of the field and defenses will almost certainly be more willing
to give catches up to Witten. Witten's upside is a target share
in the high teens if Cobb gets hurt yet again, while Cobb's upside
in the most ideal of circumstances might be an average season
from Beasley given all the mouths the Cowboys now have to feed.
2019 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 998 2018 Total: 978
Probably more than any other year I've been involved in this
wonderful hobby, I'm considering per-game carry averages for running
backs. I'm not doing it because I think it's revolutionary, but
rather because I think coaches have become programmed to think
that way. HC Matt Patricia hinted back in March he intends to
"be conscious of how many plays (running backs are) getting."
Over the six-week stretch Johnson got rolling last season before
his season-ending knee injury, he averaged 13.3 carries. That's
almost precisely where I have him, in part because I think OC
Darrell Bevell wants to use him more in the passing game after
Theo Riddick was released. It's also why a team like Detroit brings
in a back like Anderson because he is someone capable of eating
up carries. LeGarrette Blount had double-digit carries in three
games before Johnson went down and it's hard to argue he was even
producing at a replacement level. Even with a new play-caller
in town, fantasy owners probably may need to wrap their mind around
the possibility Johnson may not average 14 carries.
Prior to Jones going down for the season in Week 10, his target–reception–yards–TD
numbers (62-35-508-5) compared very favorably to Golladay's (61-39-601-4).
The problem with Jones was that if his owners didn't play him
in Week 8, there was about a six-week stretch in which he wasn't
worth starting. Golladay, on the other hand, consistently delivered
before and certainly after the injury. Owners who only care about
year-end production probably need to view this pair more equally
than they do, but those of us who care about weekly consistency
will probably going to favor Golladay a bit more as both age and
talent favor him. Still, in what figures to be a relatively low-volume
passing game, both players could see over 100 targets and push
for 20 percent of the target share. Amendola figures to keep busy
while he's healthy, but betting on him to play more than 12 games
would be foolish given his history. As much as Hockenson is probably
ready for more than 10 percent of the looks, we've already identified
three receivers and a running back who also need to get fed. Perhaps
he begins his career as a red zone maven. Either way, his time
as a fantasy force is coming, it just may not happen this year.
2019 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 997 2018 Total: 973
Injuries and suspensions have been a headache for the fantasy
owners of Jones over his first two seasons. When he has been healthy
and not paying the price for his off-field sins, he hasn't been
asked to do much in the passing game. That last bit was one of
the shortcomings of the Mike McCarthy era, and it would seem as
though new HC Matt LaFleur is going to try to change it. While
he seems to believe - as McCarthy did - that Jones and Williams
work better in tandem, he also has made it clear he wants his
backs to be more involved as receivers. However, most fantasy
owners would be OK with Jones trading in a few more receptions
if it meant he could enjoy something approaching a regular workload
as a runner. Jones has averaged 5.5 YPC in each of his first two
seasons and has generally delivered the goods anytime he's been
asked to handle double-digit carries. If LaFleur has watched the
same tape we have over the last two seasons, it's going to be
hard for him to give Jones and Williams equal shares of the workload
with a straight face. Thus, this might be the first time since
2014 that Green Bay has one back register a carry share greater
than 43 percent.
Rodgers has almost always been about efficiency - a quarterback
who didn't need 600-plus passes to post gaudy numbers. Regardless
of the final count this year, a solid quarter of those passes
are likely to be headed in the direction of Adams, who has seen
his target share grow in each of his five seasons as a pro - including
last year's career high of 27.5 percent. It's probably best for
the team it doesn't happen again, but it's almost always been
about quality over quantity with him anyway. Allison believes
he will be the primary slot option, which typically led to target
shares in the high teens or low 20s for Randall Cobb. Considering
how quickly he earned Rodgers' trust last year, he's probably
getting shortchanged above. Even if we consider Valdes-Scantling's
fade late last season more of a coincidence than anything else,
the health of Allison is probably going to lead to a decline of
his 73 targets as a rookie. We are probably seeing the last of
Graham getting 89 targets and a 14.5 percent target share; he's
likely going to need a big camp to be used as anything more than
a red zone target in 2019 given his play last year. Sternberger
may not be quite ready to threaten Graham's job this year, but
he is going to be groomed to start in 2020.
2019 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 1,002 2018 Total: 1027
Owners need to seriously consider the possibility - however remote
- that Gurley isn't as damaged as everyone thinks he is. On draft
day, the Rams clearly specified they had been looking for a change-of-pace
back since Lance Dunbar didn't work out in 2017. GM Les Snead
went so far to say Henderson adds a "Kamara element"
to the offense. The problem(s): Gurley isn't Mark Ingram, the
Rams have more viable targets in the passing game than the Saints
and HC Sean McVay's last change-of-pace back had a 17.9 percent
carry share and 10.5 percent target share (68 carries and 62 targets,
for those of you scoring at home). That back's name? Chris Thompson.
(He played all 16 games that year.) The leading ball-carriers
for Washington that same season? Rob Kelley and Matt Jones. Is
Henderson that much better than Thompson? Now back to Gurley.
Even if we trim 25 percent of his production (touches, yards,
touchdowns, etc.) across the board in each of his two years under
McVay, he still would have finished as the RB8 in 2018 and RB5
in 2017. Yes, Gurley's long-term prospects have dimmed considerably,
but let's not be so hasty in saying a 25-year-old with just over
1,200 career touches is done. He may be a surprise inactive from
time to time moving forward, but it would be stunning if he's
not handling at least half of the carries and nearly 10 percent
of the targets over the next year or two.
McVay's offenses have usually featured uncanny balance among
the top three receivers. If Kupp wasn't coming back from an ACL
tear, there's no question his targets and target share would be
more in line with Woods and Cooks'. From a target perspective,
Woods seemed to benefit the most from Kupp's absence, so it only
makes sense that he will be affected the most if Kupp proves to
be a quick healer and/or Henderson is as involved in the passing
game as we are being led to believe. Either way, Woods and Kupp
should still have a target share right around 20 percent after
seeing 23.9 and 21.5 percent, respectively, of the looks in this
offense in 2018. Henderson's arrival obviously takes targets away
from all three receivers but may be yet another obstacle for Everett,
who had a realistic path to more opportunity before the Rams drafted
the rookie. While owners need to rein in expectations when it
comes to Kupp early in the season, he still feels like a value
pick if he's available as a WR3 late in the sixth round. Even
if he starts slow (as should be the expectation), he's a good
bet to beat my projection given how much Goff trusts him.
2019 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 1020 2018 Total: 963
A perfect storm is brewing for Cook in Minnesota this season.
He isn't rehabbing an injury, HC Mike Zimmer wants the offense
built around a solid running game and the Vikings have the makings
of a solid left side of the offensive line after sporting one
of the worst front fives in the league in 2018. Perhaps the most
important addition is the arrival of offensive advisor Gary Kubiak.
While new OC Kevin Stefanski will run the show, it would be shocking
if Minnesota doesn't rely heavily on Kubiak's baby (the outside
zone) as a staple running play. Cook has already proven to be
a big-play back behind a poor offensive line, so the sky really
is the limit if the Vikings field an average unit upfront. With
that said, Cook's track record suggests he's going to miss some
time, making Mattison one of the more valuable handcuffs in fantasy.
The third-round rookie isn't going to wow anyone with his measurables,
but I imagine he was attractive to the Vikings because he is so
fundamentally sound, patient and decisive - all qualities that
make him a much better fit in this offense than Latavius Murray.
Mattison runs with enough power that he could steal some goal-line
responsibilities from Cook, especially if the coaching staff chooses
to be cautious with how many hits Cook takes.
Zimmer probably wasn't too unhappy both Thielen and Diggs registered
target shares of at least 24 percent last year; his biggest problem
was with former OC John DeFilippo dialing up nearly 40 throws
per game through 13 contests. Both receivers' targets figure to
take a slight hit, but not so much they can't still both be fantasy
WR1s. Like some other teams we have already discussed this week,
the absence of a solid third receiver leaves the door wide open
for both players to continue seeing well over 100 targets. If
this were last year, Beebe might be a name to remember as a potential
sleeper, but the Vikings figure to run more two-tight sets moving
forward. It might be easy to fall into the trap of believing Rudolph
is still a low-end TE1, but all owners need to do is remove his
production from Week 16 to see how depressing his year-end totals
actually were. It's hard to imagine a scenario in which the arrival
of Smith - a player some in the organization compare favorably
to Jordan Reed - will help Rudolph be more consistent.
2019 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 1,023 2018 Total: 990
Kamara is tied for ninth all-time in terms of yards per carry
through his first two seasons as a pro (5.13). During his four
games as a bell-cow last year, he averaged 57.3 snaps, 14 carries,
and 11 targets. In the other 11, he averaged 38.9 snaps, 12.5
carries, and 4.9 targets. How can Payton justify not increasing
the workload of one of the most efficient backs in league history?
Even a slight bump up to 14 attempts per game (224 per season
over 16 contests) at his career average of 5.1 YPC puts him well
over 1,000 yards rushing, even if he only plays 15 games. Murray
is a very divisive player for me this season; on one hand, he's
poised to blow up his ADP if Payton treats him like Ingram. On
the other hand, I think Ozigbo could take his job by midseason.
One strategy I would consider employing in PPR leagues: draft
and start both Kamara and Murray - especially this year since
Murray's current ADP is in the middle of the seventh round. Here
is a truly stunning stat as to why you may want to double-dip
with backs from "The Big Easy": the Saints haven't
ended a season lower than second in team PPR points at running
back since 2010 (seven first-place finishes, one second).
The first thing owners need to keep in mind with New Orleans
nowadays is that it can and will run the ball; the days of Brees
attempting well over 600 passes are probably over. Thomas and
Kamara are going to get their 100-plus targets, so the key to
solving the Saints is figuring how the looks are going to get
distributed after those two get fed. Cook isn't going to be the
second coming of Jimmy Graham that some owners might be envisioning
just because he won't be playing in an offense with the same volume
Graham did. However, he should push for roughly 15 percent of
the targets. (The highest target share any New Orleans tight end
has enjoyed over the last three years - since Thomas arrived -
is 12.2.) The thing that will differentiate Cook from most other
tight ends this year is that he does his best workload downfield
and will have a supremely accurate quarterback throwing him the
ball. Owners hoping for a breakout from Smith need to hope for
an injury or a face-plant from Ginn. Should neither one happen,
it could be a full season of two speedsters sharing the old Devery
Henderson/Robert Meachem clear-out receiver/deep threat role.
Butler is an interesting wild-card; the Saints released Cameron
Meredith, perhaps in part because they might see the undrafted
rookie free agent in the big slot role they hoped Meredith was
going to fill.
2019 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 963 2018 Total: 937
The beauty about cozying up to Barkley is that every situation
is positive game script for him. He's going to get volume when
the Giants are leading. He's going to see just about as many targets
as any of his teammates when they're behind. He's the goal-line
back and best big-play threat. Like every other player available
in fantasy, he doesn't come without risk though. It is possible
for Manning to get worse. New York traded away its best vertical
threat (Odell Beckham Jr.), making it even more challenging for
Barkley to beat eight men in the box (which he saw 23 percent
of the time last year). Some would argue the insertion of Jones
would be another negative, but mobile quarterbacks - Jones is
an underrated athlete - tend to help backs statistically more
than they hurt them and be more conservative with their throws,
which again favors Barkley. Perhaps the best news for the second-year
back: the addition of RG Kevin Zeitler should give the offensive
line a fighting chance to be decent in 2019.
Training camp got off to a rough start when Shepard broke his
thumb, making it a likely possibility the Giants' likely new No.
1 receiver gets off to a slow start. Tate was handed a four-game
suspension days later. Engram already had a strong case of being
considered the most dangerous threat on the team before Shepard's
injury and Tate's expected absence. Considering Engram has a couple
of seasons with Manning under his belt, he becomes an even more
likely candidate to give the big three tight ends (Travis Kelce,
Zach Ertz and George Kittle) a run for their money and push for
100 targets. Outside of the obvious quarterback questions, his
biggest hurdle is durability. If he plays every game for the first
time in his pro career in 2019, he should easily beat my projection.
Considering Shepard and Tate are really the only other proven
pass-catching entities after Barkley and Engram, they will almost
certainly see 100-plus targets as well (again, assuming good health
and/or a reduced suspension). One of the better run-after-catch
receivers in the game, Tate actually profiles quite well into
what is expected to be a short passing attack in New York this
year.
2019 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 1,047 2018 Total: 997
The Eagles invested more in their running game this offseason
than in any other year under HC Doug Pederson. That would seem
to point toward a recommitment to pounding the rock after failing
to reach 400 carries as a team for the first time in three seasons
under Pederson, but it may have also been an acknowledgment help
was needed after relying on Josh Adams, Wendell Smallwood and
Clement for most of 2018. Two of those three players may not make
the team this year. Howard was acquired most likely to fill the
early-down grinder role that Adams, Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount
and Ryan Mathews have occupied under Peterson. Adams, Blount and
Mathews all led the Eagles in carries with about a third of the
backfield work, and Howard figures to be the fourth. Sanders may
have missed too much time in the spring to be counted on early,
but he figures to be a player who brings more sizzle to the role
Clement has played recently. It's not unreasonable to believe
he could log 20 percent of the carries and 6-8 percent of the
targets.
The central figure in Philly's passing game figures to be Ertz
once again, although he is going to be hard-pressed to come anywhere
close to his 156 targets or 26.4 percent target share from last
season. Believe it or not, Jackson may be the main reason why.
Last year, the Eagles didn’t have a capable second wide
receiver to complement Jeffrey. In 2019, they have one of the
best deep threats in the game who just happens to specialize in
the same routes Wentz tends to throw the best. Jeffrey has struggled
to play all 16 games for the majority of his career, but he has
consistently found a way to attract 100 or so targets. Despite
the gloom and doom forecasted above, Ertz's status as Wentz's
favorite option isn't about to change; we just can't project such
heavy usage with all the playmakers Philadelphia has at its disposal.
The player set to take the biggest is Agholor. The 26-year-old
was hardly usable in fantasy last season despite 97 targets and
a 16.4 percent target share. The major reason why he is set to
take a hit is Goedert, who is a fantasy sleeper in this passing
game. No, he's not going to take Ertz's job. However, the coaching
staff loves the second-year tight end, who finished as the TE20
in PPR leagues in 2018 with 44 targets. The Eagles will make sure
his target share grows this season.
2019 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 1,014 2018 Total: 955
One year after the 49ers were forced to end the season with a
fifth-string running back (Jeffrey Wilson), they enter the following
year with three that have proven to be at least good part-time
backs. Coleman appears to be the leader of the group for now,
but is that only because he was the only healthy one they saw
during the spring? There's a strong argument to be made Breida
did more in his first year under HC Kyle Shanahan than Coleman
has done in any of his four seasons as a pro - including the first
two under Shanahan. Considering how often and how well he played
hurt in 2018, Breida deserves the chance to keep the job. Plus,
it's not as if the 49ers sought Coleman in free agency …
he basically fell in their lap. Throw in McKinnon as a mismatch
weapon in the passing game and there's a distinct possibility
every week will be one where the "hot-hand" gets fed.
This is a situation in which it makes a ton of sense for owners
to invest in the cheapest options - in this case McKinnon and
Breida - and let the season play out a bit. If owners know anything
about a Shanahan-led offense, the running game will be productive.
Injuries wreaked havoc at receiver as well last year in San Francisco,
as only Kendrick Bourne played all 16 games. (Although he led
the wideouts with 66 targets, he may not make the team this year.)
The chaos led to Kittle being targeted 70 more times than any
other Niner - something Shanahan probably doesn't want to see
repeated. So the question becomes how many targets he will lose,
and not whether it will happen. Pettis was a godsend for many
fantasy owners down the stretch and should be a good bet to nearly
double last year's 45 targets, but there's reason to be a bit
nervous about him. For example, Goodwin was the clear No. 1 at
this time last year. Samuel arrives in a similar spot as Pettis
did last with a more distinguished college resume against better
opponents. This has all the makings of a very balanced offense
across the board - running and passing - with only Kittle being
the closest thing the team has to a no-brainer fantasy option
every week.
2019 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 976 2018 Total: 961
Penny may be the surest sign the majority of owners - and some
analysts - put far too much emphasis on last year's totals and
not enough on a team's current personnel. Mike Davis' departure
may not seem like that big of a deal to some (112 carries and
42 targets in 2018), but have the Seahawks given us any reason
to believe they don't want to run 500-plus time again? Carson
did yeoman's work to handle 46.3 percent of the carries in this
run-heavy attack despite missing two games, but there may not
be a workhorse back in the game today who takes more punishment
more consistently than he does. Even if he somehow manages to
last the season with his running style - he has given us little
evidence he can do so, failing to play a full season at Oklahoma
State or in Seattle - there are approximately 230 or so "empty"
carries. Wilson's only going to take up about 70-80 of those.
Let's also not forget HC Pete Carroll himself has made it clear
he considers Carson and Penny "1A and 1B." Given Seattle's
devotion to the running game, one could argue there may not be
a handcuff with more upside in fantasy this year than Penny. What's
more, his floor should be roughly 175 carries even if Carson plays
all 16 games.
It's easy to assume Lockett will automatically move into Doug
Baldwin's old role and attract 100-plus targets just because that's
what Baldwin did. What's easy to forget is Seattle isn't attempting
550 passes anymore and actually a bit more run-heavy than it was
during Marshawn Lynch's heyday. With that said, Lockett is almost
certainly going to be featured like Baldwin was prior to 2018.
It's entirely possible Moore, Brown or Metcalf steps up into Lockett's
old role as the primary deep threat, but it may prove to be impossible
to determine which one will pop in a given week. Moore flashed
for a bit last year, the coaching staff seems to love Brown and
Metcalf is about as obvious of a vertical threat as there is at
the moment. All three should finish in the 10-14 percent target
share range. Given the fact that Dissly is trying to come back
from a torn patella tendon and OC Brian Schottenheimer raved about
Hollister this offseason, the latter has some potential upside
in fantasy. Ultimately, there's probably not enough volume after
Lockett gets his looks to feel overly confident any of the others
are going to be consistently productive enough to trust in fantasy.
2019 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 1,004 2018 Total: 1,014
No player in the league may have generated more hype this offseason
than Jones. And yet, Bucs beat writers swear this is Barber's
job to lose despite the fact he became the first NFL back since
2013 to amass 250-plus touches in a season and fail to record
1,000 total yards. The starting job is there for the taking, as
it seems clear Jones may have not been ready to be a pro last
year. But even if one of the two takes the job, it's hard to imagine
either player will be featured - at least not right away - given
how much the new coaching staff seems to like both backs. One
thing does seem clear: given all the weapons in the passing game,
no running back figures to see all that many targets.
Godwin has also been a popular man in fantasy circles this offseason,
but Evans should remain the main show in town for the foreseeable
future. Last year's 22.3 percent target share was a career low;
it'd be mildly surprising if HC Bruce Arians and OC Byron Leftwich
allows that to happen again with one of the best mismatch players
in the league. Godwin shouldn't fall too far behind Evans, however.
Although the passing game volume is certain to lose some volume
in 2019, Godwin is apparently Arians' choice to be his new Larry
Fitzgerald. After shockingly posting 95 targets in a part-time
role last season, it should be almost a given he sees at least
30 more without DeSean Jackson or Adam Humphries to steal targets.
Perriman is probably being pegged to be the next John Brown, but
the problem with that assumption is that Brown was usually the
top vertical receiver for Arians in Arizona. Perriman may be the
third- or fourth-best deep threat in Tampa Bay. The offseason
started with panic that "Arians doesn't use tight ends"
and seems to be ending with plenty of people hyping Howard as
a breakout candidate. IF Howard can avoid the high-ankle sprains
that have prematurely ended each of his first two seasons in the
league, he'll find his way to at least 15 percent of the targets
in a high-volume passing attack. With Evans and Godwin attracting
attention downfield, a 100-target season is a realistic possibility.
2019 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 956 2018 Total: 923
Washington likely found its long-term quarterback in the draft
this year; how could the outlook be anything but rosy? Well, let's
just say if the termites aren't already in the house, they are
en route. The Redskins have one 34-year-old back (Peterson), two
coming off ACL surgeries (Guice and Love), one who can't seem
to play more than 10 games (Thompson) and an unhappy Pro Bowl-level
left tackle (Trent Williams) who is mad at the team's medical
staff. Those are just the problems the running game is facing.
As it relates to workloads, Guice seems to be the favorite to
lead the team in carries, but can HC Jay Gruden really bench Peterson?
This definitely has the feel of an early-down timeshare. Thompson
should be unchallenged in his passing-down role this season -
Love was likely drafted to replace him at some point - but how
long can he hold up? If he fails to play half of the season, does
Love get rushed back or does Guice absorb that role in addition
to sharing carries with Peterson? So many questions, so few answers.
The passing attack is in decent shape compared to the running
game, although Washington doesn't exactly have a wideout who can
claim he is the man. HC Jay Gruden's offenses have tended to be
slot-friendly in D.C., meaning Quinn is by far the best choice
for fantasy purposes. With Doctson and Richardson not exactly
making a profound impact on the outside, Quinn has 100-target
potential if he can stay healthy and live up to Gruden's billing.
Few players have a worse track record for durability than Reed,
who has missed 31 games in six NFL seasons - including at least
three games five times. Thankfully, enough owners know about his
penchant for spending extra time in the training room that his
draft stock has made him a bit of a bargain as a TE2. He is one
of the few tight ends in the league capable of leading his team
in targets and receptions, much like he did in 2018 with 84 and
54, respectively. This is a low-volume offense, so it's going
to be difficult for more than two pass-catchers to star in it.
If I had to choose one over the other, I would go with Doctson
over Richardson because he has managed to stay healthier and his
high-point skills make him a better fit for Haskins.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
next to their name have some degree of injury concern. Players
with a 
next to their name have a higher than normal chance of losing
their job at some point during the season. 
