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Favorites & Fades

Week 6

By: Mike Krueger | Ken Ilchuk | Nick Caron | HC Green
Updated: 10/16/22



Sunday Early:

MIN @ MIA | NE @ CLE | SF @ ATL | TB @ PIT


Sunday Late:




- Green highlight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
- Lines and totals updated Sunday morning

Commanders @ Bears - (Green)
Line: WAS -1.5
Total: 38.5

CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24

No Brainers: WR Terry McLaurin

Favorite: RB Brian Robinson Jr.

Through five games, only the Seahawks have allowed more rushing yardage than the Bears at 170 per game with a healthy 4.9 yards per carry. Robinson, who was shot in the leg before the season, made his NFL debut last Sunday with 18 snaps. Thatís not a ton, but it was enough for the Alabama product to post a team-leading nine carries. Itís pretty clear the coaching staff is no longer enamored with Antonio Gibson, so look for Robinson to see more work this Thursday night. Heís an RB3/flex with upside.

On the Fence: QB Carson Wentz

While youíd be hard pressed to call Wentz (shoulder) effective during his Washington tenure, he has put up some decent numbers in three of his five games. That includes last Sunday when he passed for a season-best 359 yards, 2 TDs, and an INT. Of course, that was preceded by two games in which Wentz passed for 381 yards combined with only one TD and a pair of picks. Heís taken a beating as well, absorbing 20 sacks, and will be nursing a bad shoulder. Wentz is a borderline QB1 with a risk/reward tag.

Fade: RB Antonio Gibson

Ever since playing 49 snaps in Week 1, Gibson has seen his usage dip each successive game, bottoming out with 20 of 63 offensive snaps in Week 5. He also logged a season-low three carries (six fewer than Robinson), and his 3.2 yards per carry on the year donít inspire much confidence. I already touched on Chicagoís woeful run defense, but if his role continues shrinking it may not be enough for Gibson to post playable value. As a flex heís worth the risk. As anything more, itís a bad gamble.

WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25

No Brainers: RB David Montgomery

Favorite: N/A

On the Fence: WR Darnell Mooney

Chicagoís passing game has shown incremental improvement over the past two weeks, and Mooney has led the charge (such as it is). He had 94 yards on four grabs in Week 4 (23.5 yards per catch) and then 52 on two receptions (26.0 YPC) this past Sunday. It feels like the Bears are opening things up a little bit more, and the Commanders have been a middling group to date. Mooney is playable here as a risky flex with a WR3 ceiling.

Fade: RB Khalil Herbert

Of the Bears’ 50 offensive snaps in Week 5, Montgomery played 36 to Herbert’s 14 as the second-year back again faded into obscurity despite producing 234 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Weeks 3 and 4 when thrust into the No. 1 spot. Washington sits 14th in run defense (110.6 yards per game), and it’s hard to see a path to value for Herbert against them that doesn’t involve another injury to (or trade of) Montgomery.

Prediction: Bears 20, Commanders 16 ^ Top

Vikings @ Dolphins - (Caron)
Line: MIN -3.0
Total: 45.0

MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8

No Brainers: WR Justin Jefferson, RB Dalvin Cook

Favorite: QB Kirk Cousins

Itís going to be rare that Kirk Cousins really delivers high-end fantasy production, but a matchup like the one heíll face against the Dolphins this week could be exactly what he needs to make it happen. The Dolphins have admittedly faced a tough quarterback schedule, but theyíve given up at least 14 fantasy points to every quarterback theyíve faced this season. Not only that, but theyíve only forced one interception so far, making Cousins a very safe play even if he doesnít end up producing truly difference-making numbers in this contest.

On the Fence: WR Adam Thielen

Veteran wide receiver Adam Thielen isnít much of a fantasy superstar these days, but heís being talked about like heís a complete bum in some circles and thatís not right either. Thielen has been disappointing thus far, but his peripheral numbers are still decent. Heís been targeted at least seven times in four straight games and he now faces a Miami defense that has had some struggles against opposing slot receivers this season, including when they gave up a seven-catch, 76-yard, one-touchdown day to Bills slot receiver Isaiah McKenzie earlier this year. Thielen is still playing almost every snap for the Vikings, with roughly two-thirds of those snaps coming from the slot, so look for him to a focal point of the Minnesota offense in this one.

Fade: TE Irv Smith

A potentially good day from Kirk Cousins will lift all of the Vikings offensive weapons against Miami, but itís hard to believe that even a big game from his quarterback would help Irv Smith become a fantasy option this week. Smith has failed to reach double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this season and the only game he did get to that number was in Week 2 when he scored a touchdown against the Eagles. Most of the tight end landscape is essentially touchdown-or-bust, but Smith just isnít involved enough for the Vikings to be in seasonal lineups right now.

MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11

No Brainers: WR Tyreek Hill

Favorite: RB Raheem Mostert

Running back Raheem Mostert will carry a ďquestionableĒ designation heading into this weekendís contest as he recovers from a knee injury, but the running back returned to practice on Thursday, telling members of the media that the knee is fine and he intends to play against the Vikings. Mostert really took over the Dolphins backfield in Week 5, rushing the ball 18 times for 113 yards and a touchdown, while now backup Chase Edmonds carried the ball just once and was even out-snapped by Myles Gaskin. Mostert appears to be the back to own in this offense and while the quarterback situation remains ugly, that could play into Mostertís hand a bit as the team looks to lean more heavily on the running game than they otherwise would.

On the Fence: WR Jaylen Waddle

Itís been a rocky past few weeks for Waddle, particularly since Tua Tagovailoa went down with a concussion. Waddleís past two games combined were worse than any of his first three from a fantasy standpoint and perhaps most concerningly, heís been targeted just nine times over that stretch. The Dolphins did get completely blown out by the Jets in Week 5 so thereís some hope that the coaching staff will realize that they need to start prioritizing getting the ball into his hands again, but heís a risky start right now as long as the quarterback situation in Miami remains as sketchy as it has been.

Fade: TE Mike Gesicki

If Gesiski could only muster up one fantasy-relevant day during Tuaís monstrous early-season start, it should come as no surprise that heís been completely dead over the past two weeks without the teamís starting QB. Gesicki has now been held to four or fewer targets in every game this season and that type of volume just isnít going to produce high-level fantasy production in any offense.

Prediction: Vikings 27, Dolphins 17 ^ Top

Patriots @ Browns - (Green)
Line: CLE -3.0
Total: 43.5

CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30

No Brainers: N/A

Favorite: RB Rhamondre Stevenson

Letís start with a question: have you seen the Cleveland Browns attempt to tackle this season? If yes, you probably have a good idea as to why Stevenson is here. Making his outlook all the rosier is the expected absence of Damien Harris (hamstring), who hurt his hamstring in Week 5. With Harris out, Stevenson shouldered the load to the tune of 25 carries and 161 yards in a win over the Lions. Stevenson should again be the primary back in Cleveland, and heís a legit RB2 with borderline RB1 potential.

On the Fence: WR Jakobi Meyers

Meyers returned from a two-game absence due to a knee injury in Week 5 to easily lead the team in receiving against Detroit, hauling in seven of eight targeted passes for 111 yards and a touchdown. His workload dwarfed the likes of Nelson Agholor and DeVante Parker, neither of whom caught a pass, and Meyers proved to be the favorite target of Bailey Zappe, who may start again if Mac Jones (ankle) is out. The only hesitation with Meyers is the possibility of the Pats really leaning heavy on the ground game, but even then, heís a low-end WR3.

Fade: N/A

NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12

No Brainers: RB Nick Chubb, RB Kareem Hunt

Favorite: TE David Njoku

After doing next to nothing in Weeks 1 and 2, Njoku has posted a combined 20 catches, 250 yards, and a touchdown over the last three games. That has given Jacoby Brissett a second reliable option to go with Amari Cooper -- it has also moved Donovan Peoples-Jones into a tertiary role. At a time where there are precious few reliable fantasy tight ends available, Njoku is rapidly approaching no-brainer status. For this week, he gets the favorite tag as a midrange TE1.

On the Fence: WR Amari Cooper

If thereís one thing history has taught us about Bill Belichick, itís that he wants to take away your No. 1 option. In the passing game, thatíd be Cooper, who leads the team in receptions (27), yards (304), and touchdowns (3). What keeps the veteran out of the fade area is twofold: 1) Belichickís focus could be on Chubb/Hunt, allowing both Cooper and Njoku room to work, and 2) heís been very good at home (and very bad on the road) this season, and Week 6 is in Cleveland. Pencil him in as a mediocre WR3.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Browns 24, Patriots 19 ^ Top

49ers @ Falcons - (Ilchuk)
Line: SF -4.5
Total: 45.5

ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4

No Brainers: WR Deebo Samuel

Favorite: RB Jeff Wilson

Over the last two weeks, Wilson is averaging 5.5 yards per carry on 17.5 carries per game. He posted 120 ground yards against the Panthers last week and this week stares down a Falcons defense that has allowed five rushing TDís and is yielding 4.6 yards per carry and the 5th-most fantasy points per game against RBís. He doesnít do much in the receiving game, and doesnít get much red zone work, but heís a solid RB2 in a run-first offense every week.

On the Fence: QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Garappolo has posted six total touchdowns since Week 2 and has just two giveaways, and the Niners just keep on winning. Unfortunately, he plays for a coach that loves to run the ball, and Jimmy Gís 253 passing yards last week against the lowly Panthers represented a high-water mark. Thatís not going to get it done for most fantasy owners. The Falcons do represent a decent matchup, giving up the 10th most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Fade: TE George Kittle

The Falcons are allowing 11.0 fantasy points per game to TEís this season, which could spell opportunity for Kittle this week, but he has yet to eclipse 50 receiving yards in a game, and he still hasnít found the end zone. Maybe that means heís due, but the volume here is not something you can count on. Heís had targets of 5-4-6 the last three weeks.

SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31

No Brainers: None

Favorite: WR Drake London

London has clearly carried the target load for this team as HC Arthur Smith is committed to the run, but also committed to pushing the ball downfield off play action. Londonís got at least seven targets in four of the first five games, making him the best Falcons fantasy play this week as a flex option. The 49ers have given up 100-yard receiving days to Tyler Lockett and Cooper and also allowed Courtland Sutton a 8-97-0 line in Week 3.

On the Fence: RB Tyler Allgeier

The 49ers are the best team in the league against the run, allowing just 3.0 yards per carry. Iíve been on Allgeier since the preseason, but even getting the bulk of the work in a run-first offense, heís still sharing the load with Caleb Huntley, and averaging well-under 15 totes per game. Facing the 49ers who allow just over 12.0 fantasy points per game to RBís this season isnít appealing.

Fade: TE Kyle Pitts

Pitts has been nursing a hamstring injury the last two weeks and the Falcons just donít throw the ball his way very often (22 tgts in four games). Even if they did, the Niners are the best in the league against fantasy TEís, allowing just over 2.0 points per game. Pitts was limited in practice Wednesday and Thursday.

Prediction: 49ers 22, Falcons 17 ^ Top

Buccaneers @ Steelers - (Green)
Line: TB -9.5
Total: 46.0

PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20

No Brainers: RB Leonard Fournette, WR Mike Evans, WR Chris Godwin

Favorite: QB Tom Brady

A week ago, the Steelers allowed Josh Allen to amass 424 yards and 4 TDs through the air despite playing just two snaps into the fourth quarter. While Brady clearly lacks Allenís athleticism and arm strength, the ageless one has attempted 146 passes over his last three games, assuaging any fears brought up by Weeks 1 and 2 when the team featured the ground game (Brady threw just 61 passes combined in those). You canít view the veteran as a no-brainer anymore, but this should be a solid QB1 week.

On the Fence: N/A

Fade: WR Julio Jones (knee)

Despite missing three of the last four games with a knee injury, Jonesí name still carries some de facto appeal, and he continues to appear in weekly rankings at numerous fantasy sites. If heís good to go this week -- which is far from clear after GM Jason Licht referenced ďplaying the long gameĒ with Jonesí health -- the longtime Falcon should be held in reserve. He has just four catches on the season, and only one since the opener.

TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6

No Brainers: WR Diontae Johnson

Favorite: N/A

On the Fence: WR George Pickens

Listing Johnson as a no-brainer represents a controversial take at this stage, but after he was targeted 13 times in Kenny Pickettís first start it feels like he has earned the benefit of the doubt for at least one more game. The player that led the Steelers in receiving last Sunday wasnít Johnson, however, it was Pickens (6-83-0) for a second straight week. The rookie has shaken off a slow start to haul in a dozen passes (on 16 looks) over the past two games, and he should offer low-end WR3 or flex value versus Tampa Bay.

Fade: RB Najee Harris

Although Tampa Bayís vaunted run defense has taken it on the chin somewhat over the past couple of weeks, theyíre eminently capable of duplicating what they did in the first three games when they allowed 79.3 yards per game on the ground. For his part, Harris has struggled to get going, finishing with less than 60 yards rushing in four of the clubís five games. The emergence of Jaylen Warren, who had 38 snaps last week to 37 for Harris, is also a bit of a concern. Play Harris as no more than an RB3 this weekend.

Prediction: Buccaneers 31, Steelers 13 ^ Top

Bengals @ Saints - (Ilchuk)
Line: CIN -3.0
Total: 42.5

Update: Saints WR Chris Olave and DB Marshon Lattimore has been ruled Out.

NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29

No Brainers: QB Joe Burrow, TE Hayden Hurst

Favorite: WR JaíMarr Chase

One thing is clear in this Bengalsí offense. Chase is going to get his. Regardless of yards or scoring opportunities, Chase is going to see the ball and has three double-digit target games already on the 2022 resume. With Saints CB Marshon Lattimore nursing an abdominal injury, Chase could be in line for some big-time volume and production. New Orleans has given up big production to Justin Jefferson (10-147-0) and the Seahawks duo of DK Metcalf (5-88-1) and Tyler Lockett (5-104-2).

On the Fence: RB Joe Mixon

Mixon continues to get the bulk of the work out of the backfield as both a runner and a receiver, but his touches are down slightly (17 against BAL) and Samaje Perineís role seems to be growing (39% snap share in Week 5). The Saints traditionally have been tough against the run, but have struggled this season, allowing 4.6 yards per carry. Mixon a solid RB1 play every week, but this one could go either way.

Fade: WR Tyler Boyd

Boyd is fifth on the team in targets behind RB Joe Mixon and TE Hayden Hurst in addition to fellow wideouts JaíMarr Chase and Tee Higgins (ankle). Even with Higgins out with an ankle injury last week, Boyd failed to make much of an impact, fantasy or otherwise. Higgins missed practice Thursday and if he ends up sitting, you could talk yourself into Boyd but Iíd look for better options.

CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10

No Brainers: N/A

Favorite: RB Alvin Kamara

When healthy, Kamara is the one player who drives the Saints offense, as he showed last week with his 100-yard rushing effort on 29 touches. A true dual threat, he will be leaned on heavily this week as the Saints work through injuries to QB Jameis Winston (back) and WRís Chris Olave (concussion), Michael Thomas (toe), and Jarvis Landry (ankle). Both Thomas and Landry missed practice on Thursday. On the downside, the Bengals have given up the 2nd fewest fantasy points to running backs but volume alone should carry Kamara into RB1 territory.

On the Fence: TE Taysom Hill

The run game will continue to be a focus for the Saints while they deal with a litany of injuries at the QB and WR positions, and Hill proved last week that he can be a big part of that. However, itís hard to fathom Hill maintaining that kind of production week in and week out. His 30% snap share was the highest share heís seen this season and scoring three times on 9 rushing attempts isnít sustainable. Iím not sure heís a reliable fantasy play.

Fade: QB Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton

Dalton was fine in place of Winston the last two weeks, but heís another player who isnít a consistent lock-down fantasy play. Neither is Winston. Dealing with a host of injuries, from his knee, to his ankle, to his back, heís been out of the lineup for two weeks and has not had a chance to find his rhythm yet this season. Iím staying away from the Saints QBís altogether against a Bengals defense thatís only given up four passing TDs this season.

Prediction: Bengals 23, Saints 20 ^ Top

Ravens @ Giants - (Caron)
Line: BAL -5.5
Total: 45.5

NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21

No Brainers: QB Lamar Jackson, TE Mark Andrews

Favorite: N/A

On the Fence: WR Devin Duvernay

With Rashod Bateman still looking very questionable for this weekendís contest, the Ravens could again be sending out a depleted wide receiver group, but one that was led by Devin Duvernay in Week 5. Duvernay caught five of the seven targets that came his way for 54 yards and he has now finished with at least nine points in every game this season, even if one of the games was saved by him getting a return touchdown. Duvernay was the only Ravens wide receiver who saw more than two targets against the Bengals a week ago and while the Giants have been a pretty good defense against opposing wide receivers, Duvernay is worth a look in deeper leagues especially if Bateman sits.

Fade: RB J.K. Dobbins

This one hurts because it really looked like everything was trending way up for Dobbins heading into Week 5, but something happened that caused the Ravens to put the brakes on, particularly late in the fourth quarter when it was journeyman Kenyan Drake who was on the field rather than Dobbins when the game was on the line. This led to Dobbins seeing just eight total touches on the day and while he did rush for a respectable 44 yards on those attempts, this sudden and unexpected split backfield makes Dobbins a risky play against a Giants defense that just got done containing Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.

BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15

No Brainers: RB Saquon Barkley

Favorite: WR Darius Slayton

A beaten-up Giants wide receiver group has led to some interesting fantasy implications as the team may again be without a majority of their regular starting pass catchers this weekend. The same was the case in Week 5 when Slayton stepped up in a big way, catching six passes for 79 yards in the Giantsí surprise road victory over the Packers. While Slayton finished third on the team in snap count at WR, Slayton was the only Giants pass-catcher - other than Saquon Barkley - who saw more than three targets in that contest. Now he faces a Ravens defense that has given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers so far this season. Weíll want to keep an eye on the activity of the other Giants pass catchers, but if itís Slayton alongside the likes of Richie James, Marcus Johnson and David Sills, then this might be a good time to give him a shot in deeper formats.

On the Fence: QB Daniel Jones

The wide receiver injuries in New York arenít just affecting the receivers themselves, but also quarterback Daniel Jones as Jones has now failed to throw a touchdown pass in three straight contests. He has, however, remained a relatively decent fantasy option as his under-the-radar rushing has allowed him to deliver at least 12 fantasy points in every game so far this season. This week he faces a Ravens defense that has given up more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than any other team, so those in need of a bye week fill-in or an injury replacement could do worse than the Giantsí signal caller.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Ravens 24, Giants 20 ^ Top

Jets @ Packers - (Green)
Line: GB -7.5
Total: 44.5

GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28

No Brainers: N/A

Favorite: RB Breece Hall

Hall is coming off a monster performance in Week 5, posting 197 total yards on 20 combined touches. The problem is he only logged one of the teamís five rushing TDs, watching as Michael Carter swooped in for two and Zach Wilson called his own number on another. Still, Hall looks like the real deal and is teetering on no-brainer designation if heís not there already. The Packers have had real trouble with the ground game at times this season, allowing 4.8 yards per carry. With Hall a capable receiver as well, the rookie checks into this matchup as a solid RB2 with RB1 upside.

On the Fence: WR Elijah Moore

Moore leads the teamís skill players in snaps for the season, averaging 62 per game, which amounts to 86.1 percent. The production hasnít been there with a 16-203-0 line for the season, but despite Green Bay sitting second in pass defense on the year, the Packers have had issues with crossing routes, so this might be a week where Moore gets his season jump started. Then again, perhaps Green Bayís struggles against a short-handed Giants squad will bring about some adjustments. Moore has a low floor to be sure, but the ceiling is higher than you might think.

Fade: QB Zach Wilson

In two starts since returning from his knee injury, Wilson has averaged 231 yards, 0.5 TDs, and 1 INT per game. Individually, the Packers have talent at all three levels, and an upset loss to the Giants might serve as a wake-up call for a team that had sleepwalked to a 3-1 record to open the year. Plus, for whatever struggles theyíve experienced, Green Bay has only allowed 177 yards per game through the air and four total TDs. This isnít a week to try your luck with Wilson.

NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17

No Brainers: RB Aaron Jones, RB AJ Dillon

Favorite: QB Aaron Rodgers

Outside of isolated stretches, the reigning back-to-back MVP has looked nothing like a contender for a third consecutive award this season. Through five weeks, Rodgers has yet to surpass 260 yards passing in a game or throw more than two TDs amid growing criticism that heís missing open receivers (most notably the rookies). Perhaps no one carries a grudge like No.12, though, and coming off a bad loss to the Giants where Green Bay failed to score a point offensively in the second half, Rodgers might be gearing up for one of his patented ďwhy donít you all STFU nowĒ performances. Then again, we might see a renewed focus on the run. Iím going with the former, though, and advocating for Rodgers as a low-end QB1.

On the Fence: WR Romeo Doubs

Although Doubs didnít get a lot of looks in Week 5, there were plenty of All-22 shots circulating on Twitter in the aftermath that showed the rookie was getting open. His playing time shot up in Week 3 and has remained high with only Allen Lazard (59 of 63) logging more snaps than Doubs (54) in London. If Rodgers is dialed in and determined to quiet his critics, then Doubs could be one of the prime beneficiaries. Conversely, if itís a big dose of Jones and Dillon, it might be another quiet day from the fourth-round pick. Pencil him in as your WR3 and take your chances.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Packers 34, Jets 20 ^ Top

Jaguars @ Colts - (Ilchuk)
Line: IND -1.5
Total: 41.5

IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7

No Brainers: None

Favorite: TE Evan Engram

QB Trevor Lawrence has been seeing a lot of Cover Two in recent weeks, and his response has been to target the under routes in the middle of the field. That should mean some extra work for WR Christian Kirk out of the slot, but that hasnít been the case. With the Colts boasting one of the best run defenses in the league, this could be a breakout matchup for the Jagsí tight end who saw 10 targets last week against Houston for a 6-69-0 line.

On the Fence: WR Christian Kirk

Kirk (3 tgts) is coming off his lowest targeted game of the season. His second lowest (6 tgts) came against this weekís opponent in Week 2. The Colts are very good against the run, so that could mean more balls Kirkís way, and he is the clear leader in targets on this team, but QB Trevor Lawrence has struggled recently, and I see a reined in passing attack until he gets things under control.

Fade: QB Trevor Lawrence

Over the last two weeks, Lawrence is barely averaging 50% on his passes and has three INTís to just two TDís. He has yet to pass for 300 yards in a game or average 8.0 yards per attempt in any game this season. In addition, his accuracy has suffered, especially on perimeter passes against the Cover Two schemes teams are employing. Expect more of the same this week as Lawrence figures out what opposing defenses are trying to do to him.

JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26

No Brainers: N/A

Favorite: QB Matt Ryan

Ryan has struggled all season, particularly recently. He had just 195 passing yards with 0 TD and 3 INT against these Jaguars in Week 2, but that was without his top WRís, Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce. I donít think a player as smart and as experienced as Ryan gets shut down like that again in his second look at this team, and with Pittman and Pierce on the field, heís due for a breakout, making him a sleeper streaming option this week.

On the Fence: RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle)

The entire offense runs through Taylor and everybody knows it. The Jaguars are allowing less than 4.0 yards per carry and will be focused on the Coltsí back, making for some tough sledding for Taylor. With that being said, heís a workhorse and always in play if you have him rostered. Taylor was limited in practice on Thursday so check his status this weekend.

Update: RB Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines have been ruled Out. Deon Jackson and Phillip Lindsay will share the running back duties.

Fade: TE Mo Alie-Cox

With the exception of a strong showing against Tennessee in Week 4 (6-85-2), Alie-Cox has been a non-factor in the passing game and had just one catch on three targets against Jacksonville in Week 2. The Colts are using three tight ends with Alie-Cox playing on 44% of the snaps last week, rookie Kylen Granson playing 48% and Jelani Woods playing 29%.

Prediction: Colts 20, Jaguars 17 ^ Top

Cardinals @ Seahawks - (Krueger)
Line: ARI -2.5
Total: 50.5

SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1

No Brainers: WR Marquise Brown

Favorite: QB Kyler Murray, TE Zach Ertz

Murray (only 6 passing TDs) currently sits as the QB10 in fantasy points per game behind the likes of Carson Wentz, Geno Smith and Jared Goff. The offense doesnít have an abundance of playmakers outside of Marquise Brown and the running game is non-existent. That said, the Seahawks are a team that can be exploited. Theyíve given up 31 points per game and rank third worst in total defense. We might see Murray take on a bit more of the rushing load with the majority of their running backs banged up. This could easily be Murrayís best fantasy game of the young season.

Ertz isnít going to give you a lot of YAC, but he is seeing volume (three games with 10+ targets) and you wonít find a better matchup.

On the Fence: RB Eno Benjamin

Every running back not named Benjamin was injured in Arizonaís Week 5 game against the Eagles. Weíll have to wait and see if James Conner (ribs) will play, but it sounds like he is going to sit, which makes Eno certainly worth a look as Flex or RB2 option on sheer volume alone. The problem is, this running game is in the bottom third of fantasy points scored with nobody topping 59 rushing yards in any game. With Seattle giving up 29.3 fantasy points per game to running backs, the matchup is nice. Just keep an eye on Connerís status.

Update: RB James Conner has been ruled Out.

Fade: WR A.J. Green

The olítimer is certainly on the field a lot, playing 73% of the snaps in Week 5 against the Eagles but he isnít producing. His 3-20-0 line last week was his best fantasy output of the season and with Rondale Moore back, Green is now fourth in line for targets behind Brown, Ertz and Moore. Itís not going to get any better for 34-year-old either when DeAndre Hopkins comes back next week.

ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2

No Brainers: RB Kenneth Walker

Favorite: QB Geno Smith, WR DK Metcalf, WR Tyler Lockett

The Seattle passing game is in a good spot this week. Not only has Geno thrown at least 2 touchdowns in four out of five games this season but heís finished as a top 10 QB the last three weeks. Arizonaís D has been generous to quarterbacks, giving up the 8th most fantasy points to the position. The third receiver spot is non-existent for this team, meaning the majority of looks are being fed to Metcalf and Lockett making them priority plays in a game with the second highest total of the week. Both Metcalf (43) and Lockett (40) rank among the top 20 in targets at the position and both are in the top 15 in receiving yards.

On the Fence: N/A

Fade: TEs Will Dissly & Noah Fant

I wouldnít be surprised if one of the Seattle tight ends cracks the top 12 this week, but trying pick between the two isnít good process and theyíre not seeing enough targets individually (Fant 16, Dissly 15) to recommend them. Itís a tempting spot, given the Cardinals are giving up the 2nd most fantasy points to the position, so if you have a good read on who will be getting looks from Geno, then go for it. Otherwise, look elsewhere for your dart-throw tight end.

Prediction: Seahawks 27, Cardinals 24 ^ Top

Panthers @ Rams - (Krueger)
Line: LAR -9.5
Total: 41.0

LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32

No Brainers: RB Christian McCaffrey

Favorite: N/A

On the Fence: WR D.J. Moore

On the plus side, Moore has seen 37 targets this season which ranks 26th among wide receivers plus five rushing attempts which gives him a nice extra boost to other wideouts in his range. However, heís only caught 17 passes for a 46% catch rate which tells you how bad Baker Mayfieldís quarterback play has been. The switch to P.J. Walker canít be too much worse but to expect a drastic change in this passing offense is wishful thinking. The Rams have struggled against wide receivers this season (4th most fantasy points allowed) so there is some glimmer of hope for Moore, just cap your expectations at a Flex option.

Fade: WR Robbie Anderson

We canít expect the Carolina passing attack which ranks 28th in yards to support two fantasy wideouts and that leaves Robbie a dying fantasy asset this season. He posted a nice 5-102-1 game in Week 1 but hasnít topped 32 receiving yards in a game since. With Christian McCaffrey soaking up 21 targets the last two games, there isnít enough volume for Anderson to be a fantasy consideration.

Update: RB Cam Akers has been ruled Out. RB Darrell Henderson is a viable RB2/Flex option.

CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18

No Brainers: WR Cooper Kupp

Favorite: TE Tyler Higbee

The Rams tight end leads with position in targets (48) and receptions (33) after five weeks and currently sits as the TE7 (if you include Taysom Hill) without a touchdown to his name. Itís clear, heís the second option for Stafford behind Cooper Kupp as the Rams are trying to get the ball out quick to mitigate their offensive line problems. Carolina has been playing reasonably well on defense and just moved their defensive passing game coordinator into the interim head coach position. They represent a neutral matchup for Higbee who is playing on 95% of the snaps week in and week out.

On the Fence: QB Matthew Stafford

Through five games Stafford has 5 touchdowns and 7 INTs. Ouch. For context, at this time last season, the Rams quarterback had 12 TDs and 3 INTs. Heís feeling the pressure from a porous offensive line and has taken a league-high 21 sacks, tied with Matt Ryan. Itís hard to compile fantasy stats on your back. On the bright side, Cooper Kupp is still on this team and the Rams are favored by 10 points against a team that just fired its head coach. There is no running game to speak of so if the Rams do score a few points and win, itís likely going to be through the air.

Fade: WR Allen Robinson, RB Cam Akers (Out)

Itís not happening folks. You can provide all the explanation you want but the Rams are struggling in pass protection and Robinson is stuck on the outside seeing low percentage targets and hasnít been able to connect with Stafford on a consistent basis around the goaline. Heís posted a 12-107-1 line on 23 targetsÖ in five games and fellow wideout Ben Skowronek has more catches and yards on a similar number of targets (24). The Panthers are middle-of-the-pack against wide receivers but at this point, Iíd wait until Sean McVay gets this offense turned around before putting Robinson in my lineup.

Prediction: Rams 24, Panthers 17 ^ Top

Bills @ Chiefs - (Krueger)
Line: BUF -2.5
Total: 54.5

KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13

No Brainers: QB Josh Allen, WR Stefon Diggs

Favorite: WR Gabriel Davis

If youíve followed Davisí usage this season, you know heís basically been an every-down player, seeing the field for at least 95% of the snaps his three games prior to last weekís blowup spot against the Steelers. That kind of usage is hard to ignore and why you canít sit him, especially when you quarterback is Josh Allen and youíre in a game with the highest point total of the week. We all remember last yearís playoff game when Davis went off for 8-201-4 against this defense. This contest is ripe for big plays and that fits right into Davisí game.

On the Fence: RB Devin Singletary

Singletary played on 54% of the snaps last week in Buffaloís blowout win of the Steelers. In a more competitive game against the Ravens in Week 4, Singletary played 88% of the snaps. If we expect this game to be close, then Singletary should be a factor all four quarters. There are volume concerns as the Billsí leading rusher has topped out at just 11 carries (Wk4) and is averaging just 12 touches per game. The Chiefs are going to missing their fastest linebacker Willie Gay Jr. which should give Singletary room to roam. Iím leaning toward the positive side of this fence.

Fade: WR Khalil Shakir

The Bills third wide receiver slot is a valuable one but the return of Isaiah McKenzie isnít going to leave enough room for the rookie to shine. In fact, Shakirís solid performance last week (3-75-1, 5 targets) may put a damper on McKenzieís value if the Bills choose to rotate the two instead of sticking with one or the other. KC has given up the 7th most fantasy points to wide receivers and their man-coverage tendencies can lead to big plays for opposing wideouts, but the usage concerns should keep Shakir on your bench.

BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27

No Brainers: QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce

Favorite: WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Apologies to the Rams in Week 1, but this will be Buffaloís first true test against a good passing team. Tennessee, Baltimore and Pittsburgh arenít scaring anybody with their quarterback play and while Miami has two premiere wideouts, the jury is still out on Tua. Mahomes has been spreading the ball around to his wideouts and MVS seems to be the most likely of the group to break a big play. Heís totaled 9 catches for 153 yards over the last two weeks but has yet to find the endzone. Iíll go out on a limb and say the former Packer does find paydirt this week.

On the Fence: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster

Speaking of not finding the endzone, JuJu has seen 8 targets in four out of five games but joins MVS in the zero-TD club. Heís getting shorter looks than MVS and is playing second and third fiddle to Kelce and CEH around the goaline. Still, he leads the KC wideouts in targets (35) and snap percentage (86%) through five weeks. Heís a viable flex options but hasnít been the solid WR2 we hoped he would be during the pre-season.

Fade: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire

We know CEH has been living off efficiency early in the season and scoring 5 TDs in five weeks certainly helps your fantasy line but isnít sustainableÖ especially when Andy Reid is utilizing Jerick McKinnon at a decent clip. In fact, McKinnon out-snaped CEH 38-31 last week. Would you be surprised if that happens again? Buffalo has been decent against the run, allowing the 8th fewest fantasy points to running backs. No back against the Bills has rushed for more than 47 yards including Derrick Henry, J.K. Dobbins and Najee Harris.

Prediction: Bills 31, Chiefs 27 ^ Top

Cowboys @ Eagles - (Caron)
Line: PHI -6.0
Total: 42.0

PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22

No Brainers: WR CeeDee Lamb

Favorite: N/A

On the Fence: WR Michael Gallup

The Cowboys continue to win despite a lack of passing game production, but thereís still reason to have hope for wide receiver Michael Gallup in this one. Gallup has only been targeted eight times in his two games since returning, but both of those games came against teams that were completely unable to put points on the board against the Cowboys defense. With the Philadelphia offense on the other side of the field, thereís a very real chance that Dallas will be forced into a game script situation which leads to a significant increase in passing game volume. That would be huge for Gallupsí chances, as the Eagles have already given up eight different double-digit PPR fantasy point days to opposing wide receivers so far this season.

Fade: RB Ezekiel Elliott, RB Tony Pollard

While the volume continues to be there for Ezekiel Elliott and the explosiveness continues to be there for Tony Pollard, itís tough to trust either of the Cowboysí backs as they head into a big road game against the Eagles. The Cowboys are on a four-game winning streak which has allowed them to lean heavily on their running game, but even that hasnít led to much fantasy production from this due, aside from a touchdown here or there. If the Eagles offense continues to produce at anywhere near the level they have been, the Cowboys will almost certainly have to pass the ball much more in this game than they have in any other contest since their Week 1 loss to the Buccaneers. Neither Elliott nor Pollard have been very involved in the passing game, so fantasy managers are essentially banking on touchdown-or-bust from this backfield.

DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23

No Brainers: QB Jalen Hurts, WR A.J. Brown, TE Dallas Goedert

Favorite: WR DeVonta Smith

While A.J. Brown remains the teamís top wide receiver this season, second-year pass catcher DeVonta Smith has really been stepping up as of late. Heís now caught at least seven passes in three of his past four contests, including a season-high 10 catches this past week against the Cardinals. Heís played the most snaps of any Philadelphia wide receiver in all five games theyíve played this season and he should be an important part of the teamís passing game this week against the Cowboys. The Dallas defense is very good, but if thereís a spot to exploit them, itís definitely out wide.

On the Fence: RB Miles Sanders

Like Ezekiel Elliott on the opposite sideline from him this week, Philadelphiaís Miles Sanders has continued to see the type of volume that makes him almost impossible to bench for fantasy, although the results have been a bit scattered. Sanders has touched the ball at least 15 times in every game this season, however, and he even had 29 touches two weeks ago against the Jaguars which alone makes him a must-start for most teams, but the Cowboys defense has been smothering against opposing running backs this season. Theyíve given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position and only Saquon Barkley and Leonard Fournette have delivered more than 12 fantasy points in a game against them.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Eagles 27, Cowboys 17 ^ Top

Broncos @ Chargers - (Krueger)
Line: LAC -5.0
Total: 45.5

LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19

No Brainers: WR Courtland Sutton

Favorite: RB Melvin Gordon

With the injury to Javonte Williams the veteran Gordon finds himself in a lead-back role for the Broncos facing a Chargersí defense thatís given up the most fantasy points to running backs this season including 8 touchdowns. Three running backs (James Robinson, Dameon Pierce and Nick Chubb) have topped 100 yards rushing against the unit and Clyde Edwards-Helarie posted 118 rushing and receiving yards combined. Gordon will cede some work to Mike Boone, who played 41 percent of the snaps in Week 5, giving Boone some Flex appeal in this Monday night matchup.

On the Fence: QB Russell Wilson, WR Jerry Jeudy

Outside of Jacoby Brissett in Week 5, the Chargers-D has given up at least two passing TDs to each quarterback theyíve faced. The problem, Russell Wilson has thrown just 4 touchdowns in five games and the Denver offense on the whole is mediocre at best. Wilsonís current 59.4 completion percentage is a career low and now he appears to have a minor shoulder injury thatís limiting him in practice this week. Jeudy has a couple TDs to his credit and has seen some deep looks from Russ, but the chemistry isnít there yet. Iíd be looking for other options if you have them, like Geno Smith at QB or Romeo Doubs at WR.

Fade: TEs Eric Saubert, Eric Tomlinson, Albert Okwuegbunam

Pre-season sleeper favorite Albert-O has been demoted to third in the rotation behind Saubert and Tomlinson and with the top two splitting snaps at fairly even rate, there isnít much to chew on at the tight end position in Denver. Perhaps rookie Greg Dulcich (hamstring) who has above-average receiving chops will spark some life whenever heís able to return.

DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16

No Brainers: RB Austin Ekeler, QB Justin Herbert

Favorite: WR Mike Williams

We havenít seen Keenan Allen on the field since Week 1, and in his absence, Mike Williams has taken over with three 100-yard receiving efforts and three games with double-digit targets. Heís 14th in FPts/G and 13th in targets among wide receivers. The Broncos have been stout against receivers allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to the position. If youíre concerned about WR-CB matchups (Iím not), Williams will likely see a lot of Patrick Surtain in this game.

On the Fence: WR Keenan Allen (hamstring), TE Gerald Everett

Everett has been a pleasant surprise at a position baron of options with two touchdowns and he ranks 8th among tight ends with 29 targets right along side Dallas Goedert and David Njoku. The return of Donald Parham who is a competent receiving tight end may muddy the waters for Everett and the Chargers also are playing Tre McKitty (51% of snaps last week) in certain situations. I wouldnít be benching Everett this week but his upside might be capped more than normal.

Keenan Allen got in some limited work at practice and will likely be listed as Questionable for Monday night. However, given the nature of his injury and we probably wonít know his true status until Monday, he wonít really be a fantasy consideration this week unless you have Josh Palmer to fall back on. ButÖ

Fade: WR Josh Palmer

Palmer’s has been a tantalizing consideration while Keenan Allen’s been out but just hasn’t delivered the goods outside of a 6-99-0 line in Week 3 against the Jaguars. We’ve already noted the Broncos are locking down wideouts thus far and given Palmer’s usage may be impacted by the return of Allen, this is a situation to avoid.

Prediction: Chargers 27, Broncos 20 ^ Top