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Inside the Matchup
Week 11
11/15/18; Updated: 11/16/18

By: Andy Swanson | Jason Katz | Nick Caron | Justin Bales



Sunday Early:



Sunday Late:




- Green highllight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)

Packers @ Seahawks - (Caron)
Line: SEA -3.0
Total: 48.0

Passing Game Thoughts: It hasn’t been an elite first-half for the former two-time NFL MVP, but Aaron Rodgers remains one of the most consistent and reliable options in all of fantasy. Rodgers has finished with at least 15 fantasy points in every game this season while having thrown 17 touchdown passes with only one interception. Part of the issue has been the revolving door that the Packers have seen at their wide receiver position due to the various injuries to Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison. With Allison on IR and Cobb out for Thursday’s contest, that should again open the door for Marquez Valdes-Scantling to see additional playing time. Scantling caught six of Rodgers’ season-low 28 pass attempts against the Dolphins in Week 10, which is a positive sign despite him converting those catches to just 44 yards. Scantling has been a big play specialist through the first half of the season and increased volume should make him a solid WR3/Flex type option even against a good Seattle pass defense. Davante Adams and Jimmy Graham remain high-end options at their positions and should be started in all formats.

The Seahawks have conceded the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks which would typically be a cause for concern, but we’re not talking about a normal quarterback. We’re talking about Aaron Rodgers. In addition, it’s worth considering that Seattle’s first-half schedule was among the easiest in terms of opposing passing games. The only top-16 fantasy quarterbacks they’ve played against so far have been Jared Goff (twice), Mitchell Trubisky and Philip Rivers. If you take the average fantasy production of those four starts, the Seahawks are giving up an average of 21.4 fantasy points per game to opposing top-16 passers.

SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26

Running Game Thoughts: The Packers showed what they’re capable of doing with their running game when they have a lead when it became the Aaron Jones show in their blowout win over the Dolphins. Jones rushed for a Packers season-high 145 yards with two touchdowns, adding 27 receiving yards. With Ty Montgomery now out of the picture, the Packers split their backfield work between just two backs in Week 10 - Jones and Jamaal Williams. Williams saw the field on just 25 percent of the team’s snaps, however, while Jones played 74 percent. In addition, Williams saw just three touches in the contest to Jones’ 18. We’re finally seeing that Jones has become the bell cow that many had hoped he would in this high-powered Packers offense.

Increased workload makes Jones a low-end fantasy RB1 even against a decent Seattle run defense that has them ranked in the top-half of the league. Still, like we saw against the opposing quarterbacks, the Seahawks have struggled against some of the league’s better fantasy backs. Ezekiel Elliott, Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley all rushed for over 100 yards against them and David Johnson had 112 total yards and a touchdown. It’s hard to put Jones in that type of elite company yet, but Jones isn’t some replacement-level scrub either. He’s shown himself to be one of the most explosive backs in the league when given an opportunity and the Packers would seem wise to continue to feed him the rock as long as he’s producing.

Value Meter:
QB1: Aaron Rodgers
RB1: Aaron Jones
WR1: Davante Adams
TE1: Jimmy Graham
Flex: Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Bench: Jamaal Williams

Passing Game Thoughts: Like Aaron Rodgers across from him this week, the 2018 fantasy campaign has not gotten off to a great first-half for Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson. After leading all scorers in fantasy production in 2017, Wilson has slipped to being just 16th at the position in points per game thus far in 2018. Much of that can be attributed to the lack of protection he’s had behind a poor Seattle offensive line, but that’s been the case throughout much of his career, so it’s certainly not the only problem. Another big issue has been the health issues of his No. 1 WR Doug Baldwin, who has not yet eclipsed 100 yards or scored a touchdown this season. The biggest issue causing Wilson’s lack of fantasy production, however, remains his lack of rushing contribution. Prior to Week 10, Wilson had rushed for just 118 yards on the season. Then suddenly, like a flash of lightning, Wilson reminded us what he’s capable of this past week against the Rams when he torched them for 92 yards on the ground, along with three passing touchdowns, turning in easily his best fantasy game of the season.

If Wilson was dealing with some sort of lingering issue that was keeping him from taking off and running earlier this season, it appears as if he is now healed and ready to be unleashed. This should be exciting to fantasy fans as Wilson could now utilize his elite touchdown rate combined with rushing yards to start producing QB1 fantasy performances again. He’ll have a relatively difficult matchup, though, as he’s against a Packers secondary that has given up the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. With rookie Jaire Alexander playing at an elite level and likely to be matched up primarily with Tyler Lockett, this is probably a week to avoid Lockett who has been unbelievably productive with the low number of targets he’s seen, but is simply not seeing the amount of volume that we’d like to trust him against a top-level corner. Instead, Baldwin likely is the best option in the Seattle passing game this week as he would seemingly be in line for increased work out of the slot.

GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31

Running Game Thoughts: Given double-digit carries for just the second time this season, rookie Rashaad Penny finally broke out a bit this past week with a 108-yard, one touchdown performance on 12 carries against the Rams. Penny has been stuck deep down the depth chart behind Chris Carson and Mike Davis, but an injury to Carson forced the team’s hand in giving their rookie more touches. Head coach Pete Carroll has already asserted that Carson will be inserted back into the lineup as the starter this week against the Packers, however, so don’t buy too much into Penny at this point.

Carson has already rushed for three 100-yard games this season and been fed a healthy workload most weeks when he’s been active. This week he’ll face a Seattle run defense that has been shaky at times this season, having given up 85-plus yard games to the likes of Raheem Mostert, Frank Gore, Adrian Peterson and Todd Gurley. Only one back, however, has seen 20 carries in a game against them and that was Gurley in Week 8. The Seattle passing game has been effective at getting into the end zone this season but it hasn’t been as high-powered as we’ve seen in years past, so we might see the Seahawks attempt to milk the clock and run the ball in this contest. If they do, that would be a great sign for Carson who should be locked in as a solid RB2 this week as long as he suits up.

Value Meter:
QB1: Russell Wilson
RB2: Chris Carson
Flex: Doug Baldwin
Bench: Mike Davis, Rashaad Penny, Tyler Lockett, David Moore, Nick Vannett

Value Meter: Packers 27, Seahawks 24 ^ Top

Cowboys @ Falcons - (Bales)
Line: ATL -3.0
Total: 48.5

Passing Game Thoughts: The Falcons feature one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, allowing 294.0 passing yards per game this season. They have allowed 21 passing touchdowns, while recording only eight interceptions. Dak Prescott hasn’t been an elite fantasy option, but he has been playing significantly better over the last four weeks. Over that span, he’s averaging 242.3 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns on 32.3 pass attempts per game. Prescott has also totaled 135 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns over that span, as well.

Amari Cooper has found quite a bit of success since being traded to Dallas. In two games, he has totaled 11 receptions for 133 yards and one touchdown on 18 targets. Cole Beasley has been the other receiving option, and he’s averaging a 4.4 / 44.8 / 0.2 line on 5.8 targets per game. Michael Gallup and Allen Hurns haven’t seen enough volume to be considered. TE Geoff Swaim has been an extremely efficient option, but he also isn’t seeing enough targets to truly be considered unless you’re in a terrible situation at tight end.

ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21

Running Game Thoughts: Ezekiel Elliott is in an elite situation this week, as Atlanta is allowing their opponents to run for 119.9 rushing yards per game this season. They have also allowed 11 rushing touchdowns this season, while struggling to cover backs out of the backfield. Elliott is averaging 92.3 rushing yards and 0.4 rushing touchdowns per game this season. He is also averaging 29.1 receiving yards and 0.2 receiving touchdowns on 3.9 receptions (5.3 targets) per game. He’s an elite running back in a pristine matchup.

Value Meter:
QB2: Dak Prescott (high-end)
RB1: Ezekiel Elliott (elite)
WR2: Amari Cooper (mid-range)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Cowboys have looked great against the pass, allowing only 232 passing yards per game this season while allowing only 12 passing touchdowns, but have also recorded only three interceptions. While they haven’t allowed a plethora of fantasy points to quarterbacks, they are allowing a 101.3 QB rating. Matt Ryan has been enjoying a great season, specifically at home. Through five home games, he’s averaging 359.8 yards and 2.8 touchdowns per game.

Julio Jones gets a tough matchup against Byron Jones, but he’s somewhat of a matchup proof wide receiver. On the season, he’s averaging 7.4 receptions for 115.6 yards and 0.2 touchdowns on 11.3 targets per game. Calvin Ridley has struggled on the road, but he has looked outstanding at home. In Atlanta, he’s averaging a 4.6 / 70.8 / 1.2 line on 5.6 targets per game. Mohamed Sanu is questionable this week with a hip injury, but he’s expected to play. He’s an option that can be considered in a potential high scoring game, but he has seen five or fewer targets in three of his last four games. Austin Hooper isn’t a safe option, but he has seen 10+ targets in three of his last five games. Over that span, he’s averaging 6.8 receptions for 58.6 receiving yards and 0.4 touchdowns on 8.0 targets per game.

DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14

Running Game Thoughts: Tevin Coleman has found success recently, scoring four total touchdowns over the last four weeks. He’s a relatively consistent option, but somewhat lacks upside on a week-to-week basis. He also gets a tough matchup against Dallas, who is allowing only 96.7 rushing yards per game. The Cowboys have held their opponents to six rushing touchdowns in 2018, as well. Furthermore, I expect Atlanta to lean heavily on their passing attack this week.

Value Meter:
QB1: Matt Ryan (mid-range)
RB2: Tevin Coleman
WR1: Julio Jones (high-end)
WR2: Calvin Ridley (high upside)
WR3: Mohamed Sanu
TE1: Austin Hooper

Prediction: Falcons 31, Cowboys 21 ^ Top

Bengals @ Ravens - (Swanson)
Line: OFF

Passing Game Thoughts: The Cincinnati passing offense with A.J Green absent with a toe injury was clearly out of synch in last Sunday’s blowout home loss to the New Orleans Saints. Andy Dalton completed just 12 of 20 passes for a season-low 153 passing yards and one touchdown. Without the threat of Green on the outside to take coverage away from the middle of the field and Tyler Boyd smothered by Marshon Lattimore, Dalton struggled to move the ball and keep pace with the potent Saints offense.

Head coach Marvin Lewis hopes to have Green back this week in a critical divisional matchup against the Ravens, but his optimism may be a bit misguided with Green missing Thursday’s practice due to the toe ailment. Fellow wide receiver John Ross was a limited participant due to a groin injury, while rookie Josh Malone was unable to participate due to a hamstring injury.

Dalton will need as many options as possible if he plans on replicating his four-touchdown performance when the Bengals and Ravens faced off at Paul Brown Stadium Week 2. Dalton and Green connected on three first-half passing touchdowns against an undermanned Ravens secondary without cornerback Jimmy Smith.

In the seven games since that matchup, the Ravens have not allowed an opposing wide receiver to post more than 90 yards in a game, and only four wide receivers have scored a touchdown in that period. Baltimore ranks second in the league in passing yards and second overall behind the Bills in fewest yards per game.

One of the most surprising outcomes over the past five weeks of offensive struggles for the Bengals has been Dalton’s inability to utilize C.J. Uzomah in the passing game. The tight end has historically been a big part of Dalton’s M.O. and Uzomah at times has looked like a more than capable threat in the Bill Lazor offense. But for whatever reason, the two have not gelled, even with Green out of the lineup creating a sizable void in targets. Perhaps this will be the week when Uzomah and Dalton get things going, as the one main weakness in the Ravens passing defense this year has been allowing points to opposing tight ends.

BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18

Running Game Thoughts: After a career-best, 123 yards and two touchdowns against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 8 Joe Mixon was game scripted out of the Bengals thrashing by the Saints last week. Mixon garnered only 11 carries in that game as Drew Brees, and the Saints dismantled the Bengals and forced Cincy to abandon the run.

With the Ravens lacking a potent offense like the Saints, one would assume that Mixon will get closer to 20 carries in this game. The question is will he be able to fare better than he did in their first meeting when he averaged only four yards per carry and failed to reach the end zone.

Another thing to consider for Mixon owners is the return of Giovani Bernard to the offense and how that affects Mixon’s value in the passing game. Bernard returned to the field last week against the Saints and caught two passes for 20 yards. While not a sizable workload, Bernard could be used more in this matchup as he gets worked back into game form.

Neither player is a great play this week against a Ravens defense that ranks first in fewest points allowed to opposing running backs. Not only do the Ravens allow the fewest points on the season to the running back position, that includes games against three of the top rushing offenses in the league in New Orleans, Pittsburgh, and Carolina. If you take out the strong performances by Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, and James Conner over the previous three weeks, the Ravens would be head and shoulders above the rest of the league in points allowed to RBs.

Value Meter:
QB2: Andy Dalton (Mid-Range)
RB1: Joe Mixon (Low-End)
WR2: Tyler Boyd (Low-End)
WR3: John Ross (High-End)
TE2: C.J. Uzomah (High-End)

Passing Game Thoughts: A hip injury to Joe Flacco could mean the start of the Lamar Jackson era of Baltimore Ravens Football. Flacco has yet to practice this week and was limited over the team’s bye, leading to speculation that Jackson could make his first start against the Bengals on Sunday.

There is also the chance that Robert Griffin III could get the nod over Jackson and Flacco could still make a start without practicing this week. Keep an eye on the injury report as we get closer to Sunday and make the appropriate changes once the final inactive list is announced, and take note that Jackson missed Thursday’s practice due to a stomach bug. Jackson would be an exciting high risk/high reward play on a week with six teams on bye, based merely on the fact that he is an elite runner and could provide similar rushing numbers to other stud running quarterbacks like Cam Newton and Russell Wilson back in the day. But he could also struggle and did not look particularly good throwing the ball in the preseason.

The uncertainty at the quarterback position does not bode well for a Ravens wide receiving corps that has disappointed as of late. John Brown has six points or less in four of his previous five games, while Michael Crabtree has not scored in four weeks and has yet to hit 100 yards receiving in any game this year despite getting an average of seven targets per game.

Despite the questions at quarterback and the modest production by skill position players on the Ravens, a home matchup against a terrible Bengals defense should provide some fantasy value on Sunday. No team has allowed more points to opposing quarterbacks than the Bengals with four QBs surpassing the 30-point mark this season. Only Ryan Tannehill has failed to reach 20 points against Cincy, prompting Marvin Lewis to fire his defensive coordinator and assume defensive play calling.

CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4

Running Game Thoughts: With seven total touchdowns in nine games, including four rushing touchdowns in his last four contests, Alex Collins has been a high-end No.2 fantasy running back this season. Although his 3.7 yard per carry average is nearly a full yard less than last season and the Ravens continue to use Buck Allen and traded for Ty Montgomery, Collins continues to be an excellent asset for fantasy owners and should once again be started with confidence on Sunday.

To say that the Bengals defense is a mess would be a gross understatement. Marvin Lewis’ defense looked at what the Bucs were doing at the start of the season and decided to show the league a new level of futility. Fueled by a 51-point stinker at home against the Saints, the Bengals now have the dubious distinction of being the worst team to opposing quarterbacks and the second worst to opposing running backs. If anything else, at least they are a balanced team regarding futility.

A positive note for Lewis and the Bengals is the fact that they are starting to get healthier on defense with the likely return of linebacker Vontaze Burfict and cornerback Darquez Dennard. Burfict’s presence in the middle of the field should help the run game for Cincy, assuming he doesn’t continue in his head-hunting ways and earn another suspension.

Value Meter:
QB2: Lamar Jackson/Joe Flacco (Mid-Range)
RB2: Alex Collins (High-End)
WR2: John Brown (Low-End)
WR3: Michael Crabtree High-End)
WR3: Willie Snead (Low-End)
TE3: Hayden Hurst (High-End)

Prediction: Ravens 30, Bengals 20 ^ Top

Panthers @ Lions - (Swanson)
Line: CAR -4.5
Total: 49.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Cam Newton posted his worst game of the 2018 season last week with 18.7 fantasy points from 193 passing yards and two passing touchdowns. It was the first time all season in which Newton did not rush the ball for at least 30 yards and only the second time in which he failed to reach 20 fantasy points.

The Steelers did an excellent job getting pressure on Newton and limiting his ability to scramble and make plays with his legs. Pittsburgh also jumped out to a big lead early and forced the Panthers to alter their game plan of running the ball and utilizing play action passing.

Look for Newton and the Panthers to bounce back this week against the Lions, a team that continues to struggle defensively against both the pass and the run. The Lions rank 15th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, while allowing 35-plus point games to both Aaron Rodgers and Mitchell Trubisky. Only Tom Brady and Kirk Cousins failed to throw for at least two touchdowns against the Lions, with the latter throwing for only 164 yards and one touchdown due to the fact that the Minnesota ground game and defense took control.

After a promising span with three touchdowns in four games from Weeks 3 through 7, Devin Funchess has been a borderline droppable player over the past three games. The defacto No.1 WR on the team failed to score more than five points in any of his last three games. Including a disappointing 4/44 showing at home against a dreadful Tampa Bay defense.

Rookie first-round pick D.J. Moore became the darling of the fantasy community when he exploded for 129 total yards against the Ravens Week 8, only to fall back down to Earth with seven combined points against the Bucs and Steelers.

The only two skill position players on the Panthers that you can trust on a weekly basis are tight end Greg Olsen and running back Christian McCaffrey. Olsen is the favorite target of Newton with 21 targets in his four games back from a foot injury, while McCaffrey ranks fourth in the league in receptions by a running back with 54 catches for 439 yards and four touchdowns.

To make things even more difficult for Funchess, the Lions will likely have top cornerback Darius Slay after missing last week’s game with knee injury. With Slay out of the lineup the Bears torched the Lions for 355 passing yards, including a season-high six catches for 133 yard and two touchdowns for Allen Robinson.

DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17

Running Game Thoughts: Veteran running back C.J. Anderson was brought in by the Carolina front office to help carry the load with Christian McCaffrey. The signing created a divide among analysts in the fantasy community regarding whether or not the Panthers viewed McCaffrey as an every-down back. McCaffrey apologists pointed to Norv Turner’s tenancies to use a workhorse back inside of a committee, while naysayers used the Anderson signing as evidence that the team would split early-down duties.

After ten weeks of the season, it is clear that the pro-McCaffrey side proved to be correct with the second-year back from Stanford garnering a hefty 179 touches in nine games, including six more carries than is 16-game total from last year. There is little to suggest that McCaffrey will not continue to be a volume monster going forward, with the team opting to release Anderson this past week.

McCaffrey owners should be thrilled with the Panthers facing a Lions defense that ranks eighth in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Nine running backs in nine games reached double figures in fantasy points against Matt Patricia’s defense, including Tarik Cohen last week with 44 total yards and one touchdown. However, the addition of defensive line Damon Harrison via trade with the Giants appears to be starting to take effect. After allowing four 100-yard rushers in the first six games of the season, Detroit cut down their yard per carry average to 3.9, while giving up three rushing touchdowns.

Despite their improvement as of late, the Lions continue to struggle to protect Matthew Stafford and opposing offenses have benefited from short fields and positive game scripts.

Value Meter:
QB1: Cam Newton (Mid-Range)
RB2: Christian McCaffrey (High-End)
WR3: Devin Funchess (High-End)
WR3: D.J. Moore (Low-End)
TE1: Greg Olsen (Mid-Range)

Passing Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford started the season white hot, with 52.3 combined points against the 49ers and Patriots in Weeks 2 and 3. But with just two games of 20 points or more in his last five games, including a disappointing 10-point dud against the Vikings, Stafford has been a liability for fantasy owners and an option to avoid in most formats.

In a season in which five quarterbacks own a completion percentage above 70%, including Drew Brees with a ridiculous and record-breaking 77.3%, Stafford’s 66% completion percentage and 2385 passing yards (16th overall) are disappointing. It does not help the situation that the Lions front office traded away Golden Tate, Stafford’s favorite target, to the Eagles for a third round pick and the offensive line that was supposed to be better with Frank Ragnow has allowed 29 sacks in nine games.

Stafford is running for his life behind a subpar offensive line, and when he does throw the ball, he is often inaccurate and late with his throws. Perhaps most frustrating for Lions fans and Stafford owners, the offensive scheme called by OC Jim Bob Cooter has not evolved enough to help Stafford overcome the deficiencies with the offensive line.

On a positive note, the Panthers do not have the most robust pass rush and currently rank 21st in the league along with the New York Jets. They are not quite as inept as the Raiders and Giants at pressuring the quarterback, but they certainly do not present a challenge like the Vikings and the Bears.

From a fantasy perspective, Stafford’s home matchup against a Panthers defense that allows the fifth-most points to opposing quarterbacks is his best chance for fantasy production since the team’s Week 2 game against San Francisco. Ben Roethlisberger and Ryan Fitzpatrick combined to throw for nine touchdowns and 572 yards against Carolina over the past two weeks, and six of eight players facing DC Eric Washington’s defense have scored at least 25 points.

Wide receiver Marvin Jones suffered a knee injury last week against the Bears and may be a long shot to play against the Panthers. Tests revealed no ligament damage to Jones’ knee, but he was unable to practice on Thursday and is questionable heading into the weekend.

CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1

Running Game Thoughts: As a team, the Lions rank 19th in the league in with 163.3 fantasy points scored on the season. Those combined points are divided up primarily between LeGarrette Blount, Theo Riddick, and rookie second-round pick Kerryon Johnson. For some unknown reason other than the fact that head coach Matt Patricia coached Blount while with the Patriots, the team continues to give Blount carries, including valuable goal line carries, despite the complete ineptitude of Blount as a runner. The sluggish 10-year veteran is averaging a career-worst 2.6 yards per carry and continually gets outperformed by his rookie backfield mate. Hopefully, last week’s four yards on six carries by Blount will finally open the eyes of Patricia and Cooter and let the team lean more on Johnson going forward.

The Panthers rank 24th in fantasy points allowed on the season with four rushing and four receiving touchdowns allowed in nine games to opposing running backs. Although they allow just the fourth-fewest yards to opposing backs, the Panthers give up red zone touchdowns to running backs in the passing game (four touchdowns in nine games, including one to Jaylen Samuels last week).

Value Meter:
QB2: Matthew Stafford (Mid-Range)
RB2: Kerryon Johnson (Low-End)
WR2: Kenny Golladay (Low-End)
WR3: Marvin Jones (High-End)
TE3: Luke Willson (High-End)

Prediction: Panthers 28, Lions 20 ^ Top

Titans @ Colts - (Bales)
Line: IND -1.5
Total: 49.0

Passing Game Thoughts: Marcus Mariota has quietly been heating up, throwing two touchdowns in each of his last two games after totaling three touchdowns in his six games prior to that. He has also totaled 200+ passing yards in each of his last three games after doing it only once in weeks 1 through 6. Furthermore, Mariota is averaging 29.8 yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game on the ground. He gets a great matchup against the Colts, who are allowing 268.0 passing yards per game this season. They have also allowed 15 passing touchdowns, while recording nine interceptions in 2018.

Corey Davis has seen a ridiculous 31.2% target share this season, and he’s the only wide receiver worth considering from the Titans. He doesn’t always produce, but he’s coming off of a 7/125/1 line in a tough matchup against the Patriots. He has also seen 10 targets in each of his last two games, and he should see a similar target share in a plus matchup this week. Jonnu Smith has caught a touchdown in each of his last two games, but he hasn’t produced much outside of that. He can be considered as a desperation play or a salary saver in DFS lineups.

IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9

Running Game Thoughts: The Colts have featured an average defense against the run, allowing 107.8 yards per game this season. They have also allowed seven rushing touchdowns. With that being said, they have struggled against pass catching backs making Dion Lewis an intriguing options. He has been playing a major role in the offense, averaging 74.0 yards and 0.2 touchdowns on 16.3 touches (3.9 receptions) per game. He has also seen 19+ touches in each of his last three games. Derrick Henry has also seen a bit of work recently, but he has been very touchdown dependent. He has scored touchdowns in each of his last three games, but predicting touchdowns is an extremely difficult thing to do, making him a riskier play than Lewis.

Value Meter:
QB2: Marcus Mariota
RB2: Dion Lewis (high-end)
WR2: Corey Davis (volume dependent)
Bench: Derrick Henry

Passing Game Thoughts: The Titans have looked outstanding against the pass this season, allowing only 228.0 passing yards per game. They have also allowed only 11 touchdowns, while recording six interceptions. Andrew Luck is a volume quarterback that can always be considered in fantasy lineups. On the season, he’s averaging 274.7 passing yards and 2.9 passing touchdowns on 41.2 pass attempts per game. His attempts have been down a bit recently, but he has thrown three or more touchdowns in each of his last six games.

T.Y. Hilton has been somewhat of a boom or bust option this season, but he has scored double-digit fantasy points in six of his seven games. After seeing double-digit targets in each of his first three games, he has seen seven or fewer targets in each of his last four. He’s also expected to be shadowed by Adoree’ Jackson, who has been enjoying a dominant season. Dontrelle Inman has been seen the second most amount of work from the receivers, but he still isn’t a great option. Eric Ebron scored three touchdowns last week, but saw only three targets. Still, he’s a solid tight end option because of the lack of depth at the position. Jack Doyle has also seen 10 targets over the last two weeks, making him a strong option at a weak position. Surprisingly, the two tight ends are the top options on this team.

TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32

Running Game Thoughts: Marlon Mack has almost completely taken away the value of Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins. He has performed well since returning from injury, though, averaging 109.8 yards and 1.0 touchdown on 18.8 touches per game. He comes with some value because of volume and receiving skills, but he gets a tough matchup against Tennessee, who is allowing only 99.8 rushing yards per game this season while only allowing four rushing touchdowns. Mack underperformed in a matchup against the Colts last week rushing for 29 yards on 12 attempts.

Value Meter:
QB1: Andrew Luck (low-end)
RB3: Marlon Mack
WR2: T.Y. Hilton (high risk)
TE1: Eric Ebron (mid-range)
TE1: Jack Doyle (mid-range)

Prediction: Colts 24, Titans 17 ^ Top

Bucs at Giants - (Katz)
Line: NYG -1.5
Total: 52.0

Passing Game Thoughts: Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to do the impossible. Last week, he threw for over 400 yards and his team only managed to score three points. It was his fourth 400-yard effort of the season. The Giants have a middle of the road pass defense, which should be of no concern to Fitzpatrick owners. Mike Evans’ down week can be chalked up to a fluke. He remains a strong option. After Evans, I prefer Chris Godwin to DeSean Jackson, who is preferred over Adam Humphries but keep an eye on Godwin who missed practice Thursday with an ankle injury. O.J. Howard also had a down week, but he still ran 31 routes, which is very encouraging. Basically, don’t worry about your Bucs. This is still an excellent passing offense with great weapons with a bad defense that will force the offense to keep scoring points. For what it’s worth, the Giants allowed 83 yards to George Kittle last week so Howard owners shouldn’t be surprised if he has a bounce back week.

NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24

Running Game Thoughts: Jacquizz Rodgers caught eight passes for 102 yards last week. That is a sentence I never thought I’d type. It is clear that when the Bucs are in negative game script, Rodgers actually has some PPR value. Otherwise, it’s still Peyton Barber on early downs, grinding out yards, and hoping to fall into the end zone. The Giants are allowing 122.6 rushing yards per game and were torched by Matt Breida last week for 101 yards on 17 carries. Barber is unlikely to do that, but you can do worse for a touchdown dependent RB2. Barber is no different than a guy like Jordan Howard.

Value Meter:
QB1: Ryan Fitzpatrick (mid-range)
WR1: Mike Evans (low end)
WR3: Chris Godwin
TE1: O.J. Howard (high end)
Flex: DeSean Jackson, Peyton Barber
Bench: Adam Humphries

Passing Game Thoughts: People may try and sell you on an Eli Manning resurgence. Don’t buy it. He was dreadful again last week. Yes, he threw three touchdowns, but he also threw for just 188 yards and missed a bunch of easy throws. Each of Odell Beckham Jr., Evan Engram, and Saquon Barkley caught four passes. Those three should dominate targets for the Giants, but for reasons I can’t understand, Engram seems to be an afterthought despite being an uncoverable athletic freak. The good news is the Bucs have allowed a league worst 23 passing touchdowns and allow 292 passing yards per game. Beckham, Engram, and Sterling Shepard should see plenty of action this week against a defense allowing a league worst 63.4% success rate to opposing WRs.

TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2

Running Game Thoughts: Another week, another 100 yards from scrimmage for Saquon Barkley. He was mostly contained by the 49ers, but still managed a useful fantasy day. Barkley should have a much easier time against the Bucs, particularly through the air. The Bucs have also allowed 12 rushing scores this season and the 8th most fantasy points to running backs. This looks like a prime blowup spot for the 2018 offensive rookie of the year.

Value Meter:
QB2: Eli Manning (mid-range)
RB1: Saquon Barkley (elite)
WR1: Odell Beckham Jr. (elite)
WR3: Sterling Shepard
TE1: Evan Engram (low end)

Prediction: Bucs 31, Giants 27 ^ Top

Texans at Redskins - (Katz)
Line: HOU -3.0
Total: 42.5

Passing Game Thoughts: It is difficult to know what to make of Deshaun Watson. He’s thrown for more than two touchdowns in a game just once this season. In his last four games, he hasn’t thrown more than 25 times. He’s also not running much with 67 total rushing yards over those four games. The Redskins are allowing 270 passing yards per game, but most concerning is their pace of play, which is 24th in the league. They want to control the ball with rushing and defense, which limits the amount of plays opposing offenses can run. Watson will have to survive on efficiency, not volume. Regardless, DeAndre Hopkins will be just fine against a Redskins team allowing 91.4 receiving yards to opposing WR1s. Keke Coutee is expected to return this week and I like him more than Demaryius Thomas as the Redskins struggle against slot receivers while they are surprisingly stingy against WR2s.

WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25

Running Game Thoughts: Lamar Miller is going to lead this backfield in touches for whatever that’s worth. He’s one of your many touchdown dependent RB2s. He had back to back 100-yard rushing games, which fooled some people into thinking Miller became good at football. But he’s been mostly mediocre or worse all season. The Redskins are a middle of the road rushing defense, allowing 4.2 yards per carry. With Alfred Blue involved as well, Miller is a suspect fantasy option.

Value Meter:
QB1: Deshaun Watson (low end)
RB2: Lamar Miller (low end)
WR1: DeAndre Hopkins
WR3: Demaryius Thomas
WR3: Keke Coutee

Passing Game Thoughts: The Redskins passing game is an abomination. Alex Smith has 1 or 0 touchdowns in six of his nine games this season. Jamison Crowder has been ineffective during the brief period during which he was healthy and Josh Doctson isn’t seeing nearly enough volume to be useful. Jordan Reed still hasn’t scored since Week 1 and is inexplicably not commanding a high volume of targets with 4-65 being his best game. The only pass catcher of interest has been slot man Maurice Harris. His 5-52 line from last week was usable and that followed an impressive 10-124 line. The Texans are an average pass defense, but they rank 31st against the TE. Perhaps this is the week for Reed.

HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13

Running Game Thoughts: Adrian Peterson had nowhere to run last week as the Redskins operated without three starting offensive linemen. This is going to be a problem every week for Peterson and the Redskins can’t really do anything to circumvent it with Chris Thompson constantly injured. The Texans have one of the best rushing defenses in the league, allowing just 3.6 yards per carry and only three touchdowns on the season. Kapri Bibbs did play 41% of the snaps last week, but he only touched the ball five times. He is not a fantasy option.

Value Meter:
RB2: Adrian Peterson (low end)
TE1: Jordan Reed (low end)
Bench: Josh Doctson, Maurice Harris, Vernon Davis, Kapri Bibbs, Chris Thompson

Prediction: Texans 22, Redskins 16 ^ Top

Steelers @ Jaguars - (Bales)
Line: PIT -5.0
Total: 46.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger is one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in the NFL, and he can always be considered in fantasy lineups. On the season, he’s averaging 320.9 passing yards and 2.3 passing touchdowns per game. He gets a terrible matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, though, who are allowing a league-low 201.0 passing yards per game this season while allowing the 5th fewest fantasy points to the position. They have also allowed only 12 passing touchdowns, while recording five interceptions.

Antonio Brown has been playing at an elite level for the majority of the season, as he’s averaging 6.3 receptions for 76.7 yards and 1.1 touchdowns on 10.7 targets per game. Surprisingly, he has seen double-digit targets in only one of his last four games, and he gets one of the most difficult matchups on the slate against Jalen Ramsey. JuJu Smith-Schuster is another elite receiver for Pittsburgh, and Jacksonville has struggled against the slot at times this season. Overall, JJSS is averaging a 6.2 / 84.7 / 0.3 line on 9.2 targets per game. He could also see positive touchdown regression, as his touchdowns don’t match his red zone targets at this point. Vance McDonald has featured plenty of ups and downs this season, but he comes with tremendous upside, especially in a matchup where Pittsburgh might be forced to target the tight end.

JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6

Running Game Thoughts: Jacksonville has struggled at times against the run, allowing 118.6 rushing yards per game this season. They have also allowed seven rushing touchdown. With Le’Veon Bell not reporting, James Conner will be the featured back for the remainder of the season. Overall, he’s averaging 128.7 yards and 1.2 touchdowns on 22.6 touches (4.3 receptions) per game. He’ll continue to see plenty of volume, especially if Pittsburgh finds themselves leading in this game, making him a great option once again.

Value Meter:
QB1: Ben Roethlisberger (low-end)
RB1: James Conner
WR1: Antonio Brown (elite)
WR1: JuJu Smith-Schuster (low-end)
TE2: Vance McDonald

Passing Game Thoughts: Blake Bortles has featured plenty of ups and downs throughout the season, but he certainly comes with upside. Through nine games, he’s averaging 260.1 passing yards and 1.3 passing touchdowns per game. He also has the potential to add rushing yards on a weekly basis. He gets a good matchup against the Steelers, who are allowing 245.0 passing yards per game. They have also allowed 19 touchdowns, while recording only six interceptions this season.

The Jaguars receiving group is relatively unpredictable. Donte Moncrief, Dede Westbrook, Keelan Cole, and D.J. Chark are all splitting snaps. Of the group, Moncrief comes with the most upside, while Westbrook has been the most consistent. TE James O’Shaughnessy saw six targets in his first game back from injury, as well. This is a receiving group to avoid for the most part, but Moncrief can be considered if you’re in need at the wide receiver position.

PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7

Running Game Thoughts: Leonard Fournette returned to the starting lineup last week, totaling 29 touches. Overall, he ran for 53 yards and one touchdown on 24 rushing attempts, while adding 56 yards and one touchdown on five receptions. He’s the clear-cut lead running back, and he’ll be locked into 20+ touches once again this weekend. Pittsburgh is only allowing 90.8 rushing yards per game this season, and they have allowed only six rushing touchdowns on the season. Still, Fournette is a volume-dependent running back, who will be featured in a workhorse role.

Value Meter:
QB2: Blake Bortles (low-end)
RB1: Leonard Fournette (low-end)
Flex: Donte Moncrief
Bench: Dede Westbrook, Keelan Cole

Prediction: Steelers 24, Jaguars 20 ^ Top

Raiders at Cardinals - (Caron)
Line: ARI -5.5
Total: 41.0

Passing Game Thoughts: Derek Carr has now failed to throw even one touchdown in three of his past four contests and the Oakland offense has become one of the least effective in all of football. That reality makes Carr a bottom-level fantasy quarterback even in good matchups, but especially in extremely difficult matchups like the one he faces here in Week 11 against the Cardinals. Arizona ranks second in the league in fewest fantasy points given up to opposing quarterbacks this season and this looks like one of those games that is only going to solidify their position as an elite fantasy pass defense. With Jordy Nelson still hobbled with a knee injury that has him listed as questionable and Martavis Bryant already listed as out, Oakland will have to turn to the likes of Seth Roberts and Brandon LaFell to be their primary pass catchers out wide. Of course, the biggest beneficiary could actually be tight end Jared Cook, who is really the only player in this passing game who should be considered as anything other than a very deep sleeper option. Cook has seen his ups and downs this season but should see a healthy target share here in Week 11. He’s a TE1 with a solid enough floor to be useful in cash games for DFS.

ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27

Running Game Thoughts: The Oakland running game continues to be led by Doug Martin, but he has not yet eclipsed 70 rushing yards or scored a touchdown since taking over for Marshawn Lynch. Martin’s usefulness is exclusive to deep standard scoring formats as a Flex. The back you really want to look at is Jalen Richard who continues to do practically nothing as a runner but has contributed solid PPR points as the team’s primary pass-catching weapon out of the backfield.

The Cardinals have struggled mightily against opposing running backs this season, but the Raiders remain a low-upside backfield mostly due to the lack of effectiveness in the passing game. If the offense isn’t moving the ball through the air, they’re not generating enough scoring opportunities to make their running backs particularly valuable in fantasy. Richard’s receptions do give him a decent floor in PPR formats, but he’s practically useless in non-PPR leagues.

Value Meter:
RB2: Jalen Richard (PPR only)
TE1: Jared Cook
Bench: Derek Carr, Doug Martin, Seth Roberts, Brandon LaFell

Passing Game Thoughts: A matchup against a poor Oakland secondary could be just what Josh Rosen needs to finally break out, but it’s hard to trust a quarterback who has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns in three of his past four games. Like the Raiders, the Cardinals have simply not been an effective passing offense this season and that has led to some pretty ugly fantasy performances for their entire offense. Rookie wide receiver Christian Kirk looked at one point like he was ready to step up, but has taken a backseat in recent weeks with Larry Fitzgerald getting healthier. Fitzgerald has caught 18 passes for nearly 200 yards and two touchdowns over his past three weeks, re-establishing confidence that he can again be one of the better high-floor PPR fantasy options at wide receiver.

The player who might be most interesting for fantasy purposes this week, however, is tight end Ricky Seals-Jones. Seals-Jones tied a season-high with five receptions this past week and saw nine of Rosen’s 39 targets come his direction in last week’s game against the Chiefs. If he can continue to see anywhere near that sort of target share, Seals-Jones just might be able to finally show off the physical skills that many within the organization have praised and translate those targets into fantasy production. The Raiders rank fifth-worst in fantasy points given up to opposing tight ends so Seals-Jones is an interesting streaming option as a TE1 here in Week 11.

OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5

Running Game Thoughts: The new Byron Leftwich-coached Arizona offense appears to be doing wonders for running back David Johnson who just posted easily his best fantasy game of the season this past week, rushing for 98 yards and a touchdown, but perhaps more importantly catching seven passes for 85 yards and an additional touchdown. The increased usage in the passing game is absolutely gigantic for fantasy purposes, especially in PPR formats, as we expected him to be used in this way when we were taking him in the top-half of the first round of fantasy drafts this summer. Johnson’s high touchdown rate might not be completely sustainable but if he can continue to see targets out of the backfield, it might not matter. This week he’ll face an Oakland defense that ranks fifth-worst in fantasy points against running backs, so this is the type of matchup that Johnson could truly exploit for a huge fantasy day if all goes according to plan.

Value Meter:
RB1: David Johnson
WR2: Larry Fitzgerald
TE1: Ricky Seals-Jones
Bench: Josh Rosen, Christian Kirk

Prediction: Cardinals 23, Raiders 14 ^ Top

Broncos at Chargers - (Caron)
Line: LAC -7.0
Total: 46.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Case Keenum hasn’t been particularly great for the Broncos this season and he’s now failed to throw multiple touchdowns in five of his nine starts this season. That lack of upside that single-or-no-touchdown performances provide is just not all that inspiring for fantasy purposes and it makes trusting the Broncos receivers more difficult than it should be. Still, Denver continues to be essentially a two-mouths passing game, even after the Demaryius Thomas trade. Emmanuel Sanders remains the top dog, but Courtland Sutton has stepped up and become at least someone to consider when in a pinch. Still, this is a matchup against a Chargers secondary that has only given up three 100-yard days to an opposing wide receiver all season. That’s why we’re bumping down Sanders to being more of a low-end WR2 this week while Sutton checks in as a Flex.

LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19

Running Game Thoughts: With Royce Freeman set to return to the lineup in Week 11, the Broncos backfield has again become a crowded cluster that is tough to trust for fantasy. Phillip Lindsay has seen at least 14 carries in each of his past three games, but that number will likely take a bit of a dip with Freeman back. Add in the continued thorn-in-the-side that is Devontae Booker and a Chargers defense that has only given up four total touchdowns to opposing running backs this season, and you’ll understand why fading the Denver backfield might be a good option for the time being. Lindsay is still useful as a low-end RB2 or Flex play, but the others should remain on your bench for now.

Value Meter:
RB2: Phillip Lindsay
WR2: Emmanuel Sanders
Flex: Courtland Sutton
TE2: Jeff Heuerman
Bench: Case Keenum, Royce Freeman, Devontae Booker

Passing Game Thoughts: The MVP-caliber campaign continued this past week for Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers. Rivers has now thrown 21 touchdowns on the season with only four interceptions - a ratio that may be a bit unsustainable, but demonstrates the effective passing game that the Chargers have put on display so far in 2018. Wide receiver Keenan Allen has been heating up in recent weeks, including last week when he scored his first touchdown since Week 1. Allen has been added to the injury report with a couple of nagging injuries, but is expected to suit up and should be a fine play as a low-end WR1 even against a good Denver secondary.

The complementary pieces in the Los Angeles passing game should probably be avoided this week, as the Broncos have historically done well at shutting down the Chargers’ other pass catchers aside from Allen. In addition, Mike Williams was added to the injury report with a groin injury, which may have been part of the reason that he didn’t play his usual number of snaps in Week 10. If Williams is injured to the point that he’s not able to get on the field consistently, that does open things up a bit for Tyrell Williams who has had some big splash games already this season. Tyrell is a high-risk play who does present some upside if Mike doesn’t get on the field, but both of these pass catchers should probably be avoided if possible.

DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12

Running Game Thoughts: A lack of usage in the passing game has relegated Austin Ekeler back to fantasy benches as a handcuff to bell cow back Melvin Gordon, but the Los Angeles running game as a whole continues to be very effective no matter who is getting the touches. Gordon had another monster performance this past week against the Raiders when he compiled 165 total yards and a touchdown, and he’ll look to continue his hot streak here in Week 11.

The Broncos have already given up two 200-yard individual rushing days to opposing running backs this season and while it’s hard to project something like that even for an elite fantasy back like Gordon, it does give us a glimpse into what the ceiling truly is in this matchup. There’s a case to be made that Gordon should be the top fantasy back on the board this week, but he’s a strong top-five play at worst.

Value Meter:
QB1: Philip Rivers
RB1: Melvin Gordon
WR1: Keenan Allen
Flex: Tyrell Williams (if Mike Williams is inactive)
Bench: Mike Williams, Antonio Gates, Virgil Green

Prediction: Chargers 31, Broncos 20 ^ Top

Eagles @ Saints - (Bales)
Line: NO -8.5
Total: 56.0

Passing Game Thoughts: Carson Wentz has looked great since returning from injury, averaging 306.9 passing yards and 2.1 passing touchdowns through seven games. He has a bit of rushing potential, as well. He gets a matchup against the Saints, who are allowing 296.0 passing yards per game this season. New Orleans has also allowed 19 passing touchdowns, and Wentz will need to have a big game to keep this close against an elite offense.

Zach Ertz has been the top receiving option for the Eagles, as he’s averaging 8.3 receptions for 87.7 yards and 0.6 touchdowns on 11.1 targets per game. He’s one of the best tight ends in the NFL, regardless of the matchup. Alshon Jeffery has performed well through six healthy games, averaging a 5.5 / 64.8 / 0.7 line on 8.7 targets per game. Golden Tate was recently acquired by Philadelphia, but he only saw three targets in his first game on limited snaps. That is likely to increase, but it’s difficult to expect too much from him until he produces or is given more opportunity. Nelson Agholor is another option that can be considered in what should be a high scoring game. His role is expected to decrease slightly with Tate in town, but he still comes with plenty of upside this weekend.

NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30

Running Game Thoughts: The Eagles rushing attack is a mess, as they have three players that are stealing snaps from each other. They also get a matchup against the Saints, who are allowing a league-low 80.1 rushing yards per game this season, although they have allowed nine rushing touchdowns in 2018. It’s easiest to attack the Saints through the air, and that’s the strength of the Eagles offense so a high-volume of rushing attempts isn’t likely.

Value Meter:
QB1: Carson Wentz (high-end)
WR2: Alshon Jeffery
TE1: Zach Ertz (elite)
Flex: Golden Tate, Nelson Agholor
Bench: Josh Adams, Wendell Smallwood

Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this season, specifically at home. Overall, he’s averaging 289.0 passing yards and 2.3 passing touchdowns per game this season. He also comes with some rushing touchdown potential, with 3 this season. He gets an elite matchup against the Eagles, who are allowing 266.0 passing yards per game this season. They have only allowed 12 passing touchdowns, but they also only own four interceptions. Philadelphia recently lost DB Ronald Darby to injury, thinning out their secondary.

Michael Thomas has been arguably the best receiver in the NFL this season, as he’s averaging 8.7 receptions for 105.6 yards and 0.8 touchdowns on only 9.7 targets per game. His 89.7% catch rate is ridiculous, but he doesn’t seem to be regressing at all. Tre’Quan Smith didn’t see any targets last week, but played plenty of snaps, and he comes with solid upside in this matchup. Ben Watson is an option that hasn’t seen many targets, but comes with touchdown potential. He dropped a touchdown last week, and was also ruled down inside the one, tilting his fantasy owners.

PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29

Running Game Thoughts: The Eagles are allowing only 93.4 rushing yards per game this season, while also holding their opponents to only six rushing touchdowns. That may affect Mark Ingram, who is coming off of an elite game. Still, Ingram has seen limited carries this season, and he’s a bit too risky in this matchup. Alvin Kamara isn’t nearly as risky due to his his receiving potential. Through nine games, he’s averaging 113.3 yards and 1.6 touchdowns on 19.8 touches (6.1 receptions) per game. Regardless of game script or the matchup, Kamara makes an elite option.

Value Meter:
QB1: Drew Brees (high-end)
RB1: Alvin Kamara (elite)
WR1: Michael Thomas (elite)
TE2: Ben Watson (high risk)
Bench: Mark Ingram

Prediction: Saints 34, Eagles 24 ^ Top

Vikings @ Bears - (Swanson)
Line: CHI -2.5
Total: 44.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Kirk Cousins started off his monster deal with the Minnesota Vikings throwing for 669 yards, six touchdowns, and only one interception in Weeks 1 and 2 of the 2018 season. After a shocking loss to the Bills at home Week 3, Cousins bounced back with another 30-point fantasy game against the Rams to move into the top five at the quarterback position, along with Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Drew Brees.

But since that game, Cousins has been mediocre at best, with no more than two touchdowns in any of his games, including a season-worst 164 yards and one touchdown against the Lions Week 9 before the bye.

Cousins’ downturn in production coincides with a return to form of the Minnesota defense and an improvement of the Viking ground game. Cousins is still on pace to complete 70% of his passes for the first time in his career while throwing the fewest touchdowns in a 16-game season. Minnesota won all but one of those five games in which Cousins was not an elite fantasy quarterback, with the only loss coming at home against Drew Brees and the Saints.

The question is will the Bears offense score enough points this week against the Vikings to force Cousins to throw the ball at a high rate like in the first month of the season. If Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears can keep up their high scoring ways, Cousins may be asked to throw 50 passes again like when the team played against the Rams.

A positive note for Cousins owners is the fact that the Bears are far more susceptible against the pass than the run. Chicago ranks 14th on the year in points allowed to quarterbacks, while allowing the third-fewest points to opposing running backs. Only Kerryon Johnson last week has reached the end zone on the ground against Vic Fangio’s defense, while Frank Gore, the ageless wonder, is the only one to reach the century mark this year.

Cousins received positive and negative news with regards to injuries for his wide receivers with the return of Stefon Diggs to the practice field after missing Week 9 with a rib injury. Diggs’ return is a massive boost for the passing offense, but top receiver Adam Thielen has been limited in practice with calf and back injuries. Thielen will likely play, but he could be a bit limited and not the focal point of the offense as usual.

CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20

Running Game Thoughts: Dalvin Cook owners may be frustrated by the rushing output of their running back against the Bears, a team that has been stout against the run all year and currently ranks first in fewest rushing touchdowns allowed on the season. In addition, Cook will continue to share the backfield with Latavius Murray, including possible goal line and short yardage carries.

Despite these negative factors, Cook should still be viewed as a low-end No.2 RB based on his work in the passing game and the fact that the Bears, while strong against running backs, have allowed four receiving touchdowns to running backs this season.

Cook looked to be back to full health when he posted 109 yards on fourteen touches in limited work against the Lions before the bye. With two full weeks of rest to make sure is hammy has healed, Cook could be a difference-making player down the stretch and in the playoff run for fantasy owners.

Although the Vikings are the team coming off the bye with an extra week to heal, the Bears are the team with the fewest players listed on the injury report. Only backup tight end Dion Simms is listed with a concussion, while stud defensive end Khalil Mack shows no recurring issues with his ankle injury and should be a full go on Sunday.

Value Meter:
QB1: Kirk Cousins (Low-End)
RB2: Dalvin Cook (Low-End)
RB3: Latavius Murray (High-End)
WR1: Adam Thielen (Elite)
WR2: Stefon Diggs (Mid-Range)
TE2: Kyle Rudolph (High-End)

Passing Game Thoughts: The evolution of Mitchell Trubisky in the Matt Nagy offense continues to impress with the second year player from North Carolina ranking fifth in the league in fantasy points per game at the quarterback position. Trubisky’s run of 11 touchdowns and three consecutive passing games of at least 300 yards between Weeks 4 & 7 was the best run of any player not-named Patrick Mahomes, and his 320 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns are second only to Cam Newton.

Trubisky owners may be in for a rough game this week against the Vikings defense that is finally healthy on the defensive line. After a rough start to the season, the Vikings have allowed the fewest points to opposing quarterbacks in the last five games, with an average of 200 passing yards and just two passing touchdowns. Mike Zimmer has the defense playing Vikings football again, and they have had two weeks to prepare for Trubisky and the Bears.

With at least one receiving touchdown in three of his last four games, including a season-high 133-yard, two touchdown performance last week against the Lions. Robinson took advantage of the absence of top cornerback Darius Slay to post his best game as a Bear. He will not be as fortunate this week against the Vikings and could see a healthy dose of Xavier Rhodes. Rhodes has been limited with a foot injury in practice this week but should be able to go on Sunday.

If there is a weakness in the Vikings defense, it is against tight ends and passes out of the slot. Minnesota ranks 10th in points allowed to tight ends and elite play calling coaches like Sean McVay took advantage of Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks. Look for Nagy to try to isolate Trey Burton and Anthony Miller against those linebackers similar to how McVay attacked them earlier in the season with Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. Barr is also dealing with a hamstring injury and could be even more of a focus by Nagy based on the fact that he may not be able to play coverage as well as usual.

MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10

Running Game Thoughts: Only two running backs have reached the end zone on the ground against the Vikings, and no running back has rushed for more than 83 yards, including elite rushers like Alvin Kamara and Todd Gurley.

With a healthy defensive front and the recent return of Everson Griffen, Minnesota has been playing like an elite unit as of late and will present a tough matchup for Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. Of the two players this week, look for Cohen to be used more than usual, and lead Bears in fantasy points out of the backfield. Teams have found success moving the ball in the air with running backs catching passes, with Gurley, Chris Ivory, Trenton Cannon, Alvin Kamara, Wendell Smallwood, and even fullback Kyle Juszczyk, reaching at least 50 receiving yards and/or a receiving touchdown vs. Minnesota in 2018.

Value Meter:
QB1: Mitchell Trubisky (Low-End)
RB2: Tarik Cohen (Low-End)
RB3: Jordan Howard (High-End)
WR2: Allen Robinson (Low-End)
WR3: Anthony Miller (Low-End)
WR4: Taylor Gabriel (Low-End)
TE1: Trey Burton (High-End)

Prediction: Vikings 24, Bears 17 ^ Top

Chiefs at Rams - (Caron)
Line: LAR -3.5
Total: 63.5

Passing Game Thoughts: A “down” week for Patrick Mahomes against the Cardinals might give fantasy owners a bit of a pause heading into the Chiefs’ Monday night showdown with the Rams, but rest assured - a “down” week for Patrick Mahomes has still meant a quality fantasy outing. If that’s his floor, and we know his ceiling, then Mahomes simply must remain one of the top options on the board this week against a Los Angeles defense that has given up seven passing touchdowns over their past two games. The stumble in the Rams defense comes at a bad time as they match up against perhaps the league’s best offense led by Mahomes.

Tyreek Hill broke out of a two-week slump this past week when he caught seven passes for 117 yards and two scores, making him again one of the best high-upside fantasy plays of the week. Fellow wide receiver Sammy Watkins (foot) was limited on Thursday but is expected to play. If you don’t have another option in this game, it might be wise for Watkins owners to pick up Chris Conley, who has at least been logging snaps when Watkins has been out. Conley probably won’t see significant targets, however, given the likes of Hill, tight end Travis Kelce and running backs Kareem Hunt and Spencer Ware who can also make plays, but Conley is at least a body who could be placed into your lineup if you’re desperate and need a prayer answered on Monday night should Watkins be ruled out. Kelce, of course, remains the top tight end in fantasy and should see an increased workload if Watkins is unable to play.

LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16

Running Game Thoughts: A 96 total-yard, no touchdown day this past week for Kareem Hunt was a bit of a letdown in what looked on paper to potentially be a huge fantasy day. Still, Hunt continues to be one of the more trustworthy fantasy backs as he’s produced at least 11 PPR fantasy points in every game since Week 1, including 13 total touchdowns on the season.

The Rams have actually only given up two 100-yard rushing days this season - both to Seattle running backs, oddly enough - but a lot of that can be attributed to the game script that opposing teams have found themselves in. If the Rams get out to a big lead, opposing teams simply cannot afford to run the ball and they end up abandoning it in order to pass more. That won’t likely be the case here in Week 11 as the Chiefs are one of the few offenses that are capable of matching fire with fire against the Rams. That should mean that Hunt is on the field regularly, getting plenty of carries and catches, racking up fantasy points all night. There’s a bit of a concern that the Chiefs seem to have no problem allowing Spencer Ware to snipe touchdowns from him near the goal line, but Hunt’s touchdown total this season shows us that he’s still the primary goal line back, so he’ll continue to be a solid RB1.

Value Meter:
QB1: Patrick Mahomes
RB1: Kareem Hunt
WR1: Tyreek Hill
TE1: Travis Kelce
Bench: Spencer Ware, Sammy Watkins, Chris Conley

Passing Game Thoughts: A season-ending ACL injury for Cooper Kupp has left the Rams struggling at wide receiver heading into Week 11. With the trade deadline having already passed, Los Angeles will have to again look down its own depth chart, likely to wide receiver Josh Reynolds who stepped in and played significant snaps when Kupp was out earlier this season. Reynolds did not produce consistent enough numbers to be considered anything other than a touchdown-or-bust option, but the positive note is that his play was not poor enough that the Rams offense took a significant step back in effectiveness as a whole. That should mean continued good things for wide receiver Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods, as well as quarterback Jared Goff.

Goff has thrown for multiple touchdown passes in all but three games this season and now he’ll face a Kansas City defense that has given up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks so far this season. They’ve averaged conceding 310 passing yards per game, and that’s included three 400-yard passing days given up. The Rams are certainly capable of putting up monster numbers themselves and this is likely to be one of the biggest shootouts of the week, so make sure to get your Rams in your fantasy lineups this week.

KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11

Running Game Thoughts: It almost seems like clockwork at this point that Todd Gurley is just going to continue to put up huge fantasy numbers every week. The Rams running back has scored at least 19 PPR fantasy points in every single game this season. That type of consistency is practically unheard of at the running back position in this era, but Gurley has been able to do it now for two seasons. There’s really nothing to question at this point when it comes to Gurley’s production. Even in games when the Rams do find themselves behind, it’s Gurley who’s catching passes out of the backfield to get them back in the game. And then they’re ahead, he’s the guy who’s smashing the rock down the defense’s throat, putting up huge chunks of yards and completely demoralizing the opposing team.

Now he faces a Kansas City defense that ranks dead-last in fantasy points allowed to the running back position. To say that this matchup has huge fantasy numbers written all over it would be an understatement. A 30-point fantasy day is certainly not out of the question. This is one of the best fantasy matchups that any player will see all season, so get the league’s top fantasy back in your lineup with confidence and enjoy watching your fantasy scoreboard light up like a Christmas tree.

Value Meter:
QB1: Jared Goff
RB1: Todd Gurley (top play on the board)
WR1: Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods
Bench: Josh Reynolds, Tyler Higbee, Gerald Everett

Prediction: Rams 38, Chiefs 35 ^ Top