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Top 200 Big Board, Half-PPR: Version 1.0


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 8/16/23 |
PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC


Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men try to work in harmony roughly 60 times per game, while 11 other men make it their job to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is also not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. In football, every player needs some help to accomplish his goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards now - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it does not mean we should not try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make more than 8,000 "decisions". Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. Even if my grading process is only 70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst that does not consider it at all.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst is to identify when stocks are poised to skyrocket or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. I have taken this approach for more than 15 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions. As always, the matchup grades are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern. In addition, I have added distinct tiers for this round of Big Boards (represented by the different colors in the "Pos" column).

OOver the next two weeks, I will release my first Big Boards for superflex and standard leagues as well as the FFPC Big Boards. In the second and final round of Big Boards near the end of the preseason, I will rank at least 225 players and present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the Half-Point PPR format:

 Half-Point Big Board - Top 200
Rk Pos Player Tm SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1 WR1 Justin Jefferson MIN 5.9
2 RB1 Christian McCaffrey SF 5.0
3 WR2 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 4.6
4 RB2 Nick Chubb CLE 4.5
5 WR3 Tyreek Hill MIA 4.5
6 WR4 Cooper Kupp LAR 4.1
7 RB3 Bijan Robinson ATL 3.7
8 RB4 Austin Ekeler LAC 3.6
9 TE1 Travis Kelce KC 3.5
10 WR5 CeeDee Lamb DAL 2.5
11 WR6 Davante Adams LV 2.1
12 RB5 Tony Pollard DAL 2.0
13 RB6 Jonathan Taylor IND 1.8
14 RB7 Derrick Henry TEN 1.8
15 QB1 Jalen Hurts PHI 1.7
16 WR7 Stefon Diggs BUF 1.5
17 WR8 Garrett Wilson NYJ 1.5
18 WR9 A.J. Brown PHI 1.5
19 RB8 Saquon Barkley NYG 1.2
20 WR10 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 1.2
21 WR11 Jaylen Waddle MIA 1.2
22 QB2 Josh Allen BUF 1.1
23 TE2 Mark Andrews BAL 1.0
24 WR12 Chris Olave NO 0.4
25 RB9 Joe Mixon CIN 0.4
26 RB10 J.K. Dobbins BAL 0.4
27 WR13 Calvin Ridley JAC 0.4
28 RB11 Aaron Jones GB 0.3
29 QB3 Lamar Jackson BAL 0.2
30 TE3 Darren Waller NYG 0.2
31 RB12 David Montgomery DET 0.1
32 RB13 Dameon Pierce HOU 0.1
33 RB14 Rhamondre Stevenson NE 0.1
34 RB15 Breece Hall NYJ 0.0
35 RB16 Najee Harris PIT 0.0
36 RB17 Kenneth Walker SEA -0.2
37 WR14 DeVonta Smith PHI -0.4
38 WR15 Tee Higgins CIN -0.6
39 RB18 Jahmyr Gibbs DET -0.6
40 QB4 Patrick Mahomes KC -0.7
41 WR16 DK Metcalf SEA -0.7
42 QB5 Justin Herbert LAC -0.7
43 WR17 Brandon Aiyuk SF -0.8
44 WR18 Terry McLaurin WAS -0.8
45 WR19 D.J. Moore CHI -0.9
46 WR20 Keenan Allen LAC -1.0
47 RB19 Miles Sanders CAR -1.0
48 QB6 Joe Burrow CIN -1.1
49 WR21 Tyler Lockett SEA -1.1
50 RB20 Travis Etienne JAC -1.1
51 RB21 Cam Akers LAR -1.2
52 WR22 Deebo Samuel SF -1.2
53 WR23 Gabriel Davis BUF -1.5
54 WR24 Christian Watson GB -1.6
55 TE4 Evan Engram JAC -1.6
56 WR25 Mike Williams LAC -1.6
57 WR26 Amari Cooper CLE -1.7
58 TE5 David Njoku CLE -1.7
59 WR27 Drake London ATL -1.7
60 WR28 Jerry Jeudy DEN -1.7
61 WR29 DeAndre Hopkins TEN -1.8
62 TE6 T.J. Hockenson MIN -1.8
63 WR30 Elijah Moore CLE -1.8
64 WR31 Mike Evans TB -1.8
65 WR32 Courtland Sutton DEN -1.8
66 RB22 Alexander Mattison MIN -1.9
67 RB23 James Cook BUF -2.0
68 WR33 Christian Kirk JAC -2.0
69 QB7 Justin Fields CHI -2.1
70 TE7 Kyle Pitts ATL -2.1
71 WR34 Treylon Burks TEN -2.1
72 RB24 James Conner ARI -2.2
73 TE8 George Kittle SF -2.2
74 WR35 Chris Godwin TB -2.3
75 TE9 Dallas Goedert PHI -2.3
76 WR36 Diontae Johnson PIT -2.3
77 RB25 Josh Jacobs LV -2.4
78 TE10 Gerald Everett LAC -2.5
79 RB26 Rachaad White TB -2.5
80 WR37 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA -2.5
81 QB8 Trevor Lawrence JAC -2.5
82 TE11 Juwan Johnson NO -2.5
83 WR38 Michael Pittman Jr. IND -2.6
84 RB27 Dalvin Cook NYJ -2.6
85 QB9 Deshaun Watson CLE -2.6
86 WR39 George Pickens PIT -2.7
87 QB10 Geno Smith SEA -2.8
88 RB28 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS -2.8
89 RB29 Javonte Williams DEN -2.8
90 RB30 Alvin Kamara NO -2.9
91 WR40 Brandin Cooks DAL -2.9
92 TE12 Tyler Higbee LAR -3.1
93 RB31 Antonio Gibson WAS -3.1
94 WR41 Kadarius Toney KC -3.1
95 TE13 Dalton Kincaid BUF -3.1
96 TE14 Jake Ferguson DAL -3.2
97 WR42 Jahan Dotson WAS -3.2
98 RB32 Devon Achane MIA -3.2
99 WR43 Marquise Brown ARI -3.2
100 WR44 Jordan Addison MIN -3.5
101 WR45 JuJu Smith-Schuster NE -3.5
102 RB33 Isiah Pacheco KC -3.5
103 TE15 Pat Freiermuth PIT -3.5
104 RB34 Samaje Perine DEN -3.6
105 QB11 Anthony Richardson IND -3.8
106 WR46 Nico Collins HOU -3.8
107 RB35 Zach Charbonnet SEA -3.9
108 WR47 Odell Beckham Jr. BAL -3.9
109 WR48 Allen Lazard NYJ -3.9
110 WR49 Zay Flowers BAL -3.9
111 WR50 Jakobi Meyers LV -4.0
112 RB36 D'Andre Swift PHI -4.0
113 WR51 Quentin Johnston LAC -4.1
114 WR52 Skyy Moore KC -4.2
115 QB12 Russell Wilson DEN -4.2
116 WR53 Marvin Mims DEN -4.3
117 QB13 Kirk Cousins MIN -4.3
118 WR54 Michael Gallup DAL -4.4
119 QB14 Dak Prescott DAL -4.4
120 RB37 Tank Bigsby JAC -4.5
121 WR55 Jonathan Mingo CAR -4.5
122 RB38 Khalil Herbert CHI -4.5
123 WR56 Isaiah Hodgins NYG -4.6
124 RB39 AJ Dillon GB -4.6
125 RB40 Jeff Wilson MIA -4.6
126 WR57 Alec Pierce IND -4.6
127 WR58 Rashod Bateman BAL -4.8
128 WR59 Adam Thielen CAR -4.8
129 RB41 Damien Harris BUF -4.8
130 WR60 Romeo Doubs GB -4.9
131 WR61 Darnell Mooney CHI -4.9
132 QB15 Aaron Rodgers NYJ -5.0
133 RB42 Jerome Ford CLE -5.0
134 QB16 Daniel Jones NYG -5.1
135 WR62 Michael Thomas NO -5.1
136 WR63 Tyler Boyd CIN -5.1
137 WR64 DeVante Parker NE -5.3
138 WR65 Michael Wilson ARI -5.3
139 TE16 Greg Dulcich DEN -5.4
140 WR66 D.J. Chark CAR -5.4
141 WR67 Van Jefferson LAR -5.5
142 TE17 Hunter Henry NE -5.5
143 RB43 Tyjae Spears TEN -5.5
144 WR68 Jameson Williams DET -5.6
145 TE18 Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN -5.6
146 WR69 Parris Campbell NYG -5.7
147 TE19 Dalton Schultz HOU -5.7
148 RB44 Jaylen Warren PIT -5.7
149 WR70 Curtis Samuel WAS -5.7
150 WR71 Mecole Hardman NYJ -5.7
151 WR72 Puka Nacua LAR -5.8
152 WR73 Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC -5.8
153 TE20 Tyler Conklin NYJ -5.8
154 TE21 Cole Kmet CHI -5.8
155 WR74 Robert Woods HOU -5.8
156 WR75 Rashee Rice KC -5.9
157 WR76 John Metchie HOU -5.9
158 WR77 Darius Slayton NYG -5.9
159 WR78 Hunter Renfrow LV -5.9
160 RB45 Tyler Allgeier ATL -6.0
161 TE22 Sam LaPorta DET -6.0
162 TE23 Jelani Woods IND -6.1
163 RB46 Rashaad Penny PHI -6.2
164 QB17 Kyler Murray ARI -6.2
165 WR79 Zay Jones JAC -6.4
166 RB47 Elijah Mitchell SF -6.4
167 WR80 K.J. Osborn MIN -6.5
168 WR81 Josh Downs IND -6.5
169 QB18 Derek Carr NO -6.7
170 WR82 Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE -6.7
171 RB48 Devin Singletary HOU -6.7
172 QB19 Tua Tagovailoa MIA -6.8
173 TE24 Irv Smith CIN -6.8
174 RB49 Ezekiel Elliott NE -6.9
175 RB50 Zamir White LV -6.9
176 RB51 Kendre Miller NO -7.0
177 QB20 Jared Goff DET -7.0
178 RB52 Jamaal Williams NO -7.2
179 QB21 Brock Purdy SF -7.2
180 RB53 Deuce Vaughn DAL -7.2
181 WR83 Tank Dell HOU -7.3
182 QB22 Sam Howell WAS -7.3
183 RB54 Roschon Johnson CHI -7.4
184 WR84 Chase Claypool CHI -7.6
185 QB23 Mac Jones NE -7.6
186 RB55 Deneric Prince KC -7.6
187 WR85 Jayden Reed GB -7.6
188 RB56 Sean Tucker TB -7.6
189 WR86 Rashid Shaheed NO -7.6
190 RB57 Gus Edwards BAL -7.7
191 QB24 Ryan Tannehill TEN -7.8
192 RB58 D'Onta Foreman CHI -7.9
193 RB59 Jerick McKinnon KC -8.1
194 RB60 Raheem Mostert MIA -8.3
195 RB61 Kenneth Gainwell PHI -8.3
196 RB62 Evan Hull IND -8.6
197 RB63 Cordarrelle Patterson ATL -8.7
198 RB64 Zach Evans LAR -8.8
199 RB65 Chase Edmonds TB -8.9
200 RB66 Malik Davis DAL -9.0


PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.