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Top 220 Big Board FFPC High-Stakes League: V 1.0


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 8/20/23 |
PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC

Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men try to work in harmony roughly 60 times per game, while 11 other men make it their job to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is also not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. In football, every player needs some help to accomplish his goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards now - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it does not mean we should not try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make more than 8,000 "decisions". Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. Even if my grading process is only 70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst that does not consider it at all.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst is to identify when stocks are poised to skyrocket or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. I have taken this approach for more than 15 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions. As always, the matchup grades are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern. In addition, I have added distinct tiers for this round of Big Boards (represented by the different colors in the "FPos" column).

Over the next two weeks, I will release the second and final round of Big Boards near the end of the preseason. I will rank at least 225 players and present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams. Last but not least, I added 20 more players to this board to give fantasy managers enough players to account for the 20-round FFPC format.

***** For the first time ever, I have adjusted my formulas to account for the three-week run to glory that the FFPC uses to decide the overall $1 million winner. This means individual matchups during Weeks 15-17 have been given special consideration and will affect a player's placement on the Big Board versus other Big Boards.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the FFPC format:

 FFPC Big Board - Top 220
Rk Pos Player Tm SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1 WR1 Justin Jefferson MIN 10.3
2 TE1 Travis Kelce KC 10.0
3 WR2 Cooper Kupp LAR 10.0
4 WR3 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 9.9
5 RB1 Christian McCaffrey SF 9.9
6 WR4 Tyreek Hill MIA 9.3
7 RB2 Austin Ekeler LAC 8.2
8 RB3 Nick Chubb CLE 8.1
9 RB4 Bijan Robinson ATL 7.9
10 WR5 Davante Adams LV 7.2
11 WR6 CeeDee Lamb DAL 7.1
12 RB5 Tony Pollard DAL 5.8
13 RB6 Saquon Barkley NYG 5.7
14 WR7 Stefon Diggs BUF 5.4
15 WR8 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 5.3
16 RB7 Derrick Henry TEN 5.0
17 QB1 Jalen Hurts PHI 4.8
18 WR9 Garrett Wilson NYJ 4.4
19 WR10 A.J. Brown PHI 4.4
20 WR11 Jaylen Waddle MIA 4.3
21 TE2 Mark Andrews BAL 4.0
22 WR12 Tee Higgins CIN 3.9
23 WR13 Keenan Allen LAC 3.8
24 RB8 Jahmyr Gibbs DET 3.6
25 RB9 Aaron Jones GB 3.5
26 RB10 Rhamondre Stevenson NE 3.3
27 WR14 Chris Olave NO 3.3
28 WR15 Calvin Ridley JAC 3.3
29 QB2 Josh Allen BUF 3.2
30 RB11 Jonathan Taylor IND 3.1
31 WR16 DeVonta Smith PHI 2.8
32 WR17 Tyler Lockett SEA 2.6
33 WR18 DK Metcalf SEA 2.5
34 WR19 Deebo Samuel SF 2.5
35 WR20 Brandon Aiyuk SF 2.4
36 RB12 Breece Hall NYJ 2.4
37 QB3 Joe Burrow CIN 2.2
38 QB4 Lamar Jackson BAL 2.1
39 QB5 Patrick Mahomes KC 2.1
40 QB6 Justin Herbert LAC 2.0
41 WR21 D.J. Moore CHI 1.9
42 RB13 David Montgomery DET 1.9
43 WR22 Terry McLaurin WAS 1.8
44 WR23 Elijah Moore CLE 1.6
45 TE3 Darren Waller NYG 1.5
46 RB14 J.K. Dobbins BAL 1.4
47 WR24 Chris Godwin TB 1.2
48 WR25 Jerry Jeudy DEN 1.2
49 RB15 Rachaad White TB 1.1
50 RB16 Dameon Pierce HOU 1.0
51 RB17 Alvin Kamara NO 1.0
52 WR26 Amari Cooper CLE 0.9
53 RB18 Josh Jacobs LV 0.9
54 RB19 James Cook BUF 0.8
55 RB20 Miles Sanders CAR 0.7
56 WR27 Christian Kirk JAC 0.7
57 RB21 Najee Harris PIT 0.5
58 WR28 DeAndre Hopkins TEN 0.5
59 TE4 T.J. Hockenson MIN 0.5
60 RB22 Joe Mixon CIN 0.3
61 WR29 Drake London ATL 0.3
62 WR30 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 0.3
63 TE5 Dallas Goedert PHI 0.2
64 QB7 Trevor Lawrence JAC 0.2
65 TE6 Kyle Pitts ATL 0.1
66 RB23 D'Andre Swift PHI 0.0
67 WR31 Diontae Johnson PIT -0.1
68 QB8 Justin Fields CHI -0.1
69 RB24 Alexander Mattison MIN -0.1
70 RB25 Antonio Gibson WAS -0.2
71 QB9 Deshaun Watson CLE -0.3
72 QB10 Geno Smith SEA -0.5
73 RB26 Travis Etienne JAC -0.6
74 WR32 Michael Pittman Jr. IND -0.7
75 RB27 Javonte Williams DEN -0.8
76 WR33 Mike Williams LAC -0.8
77 WR34 Treylon Burks TEN -0.9
78 WR35 George Pickens PIT -1.0
79 WR36 Jordan Addison MIN -1.0
80 TE7 George Kittle SF -1.1
81 WR37 Gabriel Davis BUF -1.2
82 RB28 Devon Achane MIA -1.2
83 TE8 Pat Freiermuth PIT -1.2
84 RB29 Kenneth Walker SEA -1.3
85 TE9 David Njoku CLE -1.3
86 WR38 Courtland Sutton DEN -1.3
87 WR39 Kadarius Toney KC -1.4
88 QB11 Kirk Cousins MIN -1.5
89 WR40 Michael Thomas NO -1.6
104 WR41 Christian Watson GB -1.8
90 WR42 Quentin Johnston LAC -1.8
91 QB12 Dak Prescott DAL -1.8
92 RB30 James Conner ARI -1.9
93 QB13 Anthony Richardson IND -2.0
94 WR43 Jahan Dotson WAS -2.0
95 WR44 Mike Evans TB -2.1
96 WR45 Brandin Cooks DAL -2.1
97 RB31 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS -2.1
98 RB32 Samaje Perine DEN -2.2
99 QB14 Tua Tagovailoa MIA -2.2
100 WR46 Marquise Brown ARI -2.2
101 RB33 Cam Akers LAR -2.3
102 TE10 Juwan Johnson NO -2.3
103 TE11 Dalton Kincaid BUF -2.4
105 QB15 Russell Wilson DEN -2.5
106 WR47 Romeo Doubs GB -2.6
107 WR48 Jakobi Meyers LV -2.6
108 TE12 Gerald Everett LAC -2.6
109 WR49 Zay Flowers BAL -2.7
110 TE13 Evan Engram JAC -3.0
111 RB34 Isiah Pacheco KC -3.0
112 WR50 Nico Collins HOU -3.0
113 WR51 Tyler Boyd CIN -3.1
114 WR52 JuJu Smith-Schuster NE -3.1
115 RB35 Raheem Mostert MIA -3.3
116 QB16 Daniel Jones NYG -3.4
117 RB36 Dalvin Cook NYJ -3.4
118 TE14 Jake Ferguson DAL -3.5
119 QB17 Aaron Rodgers NYJ -3.5
120 WR53 Curtis Samuel WAS -3.5
121 WR54 Isaiah Hodgins NYG -3.5
122 RB37 Tyjae Spears TEN -3.6
123 RB38 AJ Dillon GB -3.6
124 WR55 Darnell Mooney CHI -3.7
125 WR56 Odell Beckham Jr. BAL -3.8
126 WR57 Skyy Moore KC -3.8
127 WR58 Parris Campbell NYG -4.1
128 WR59 Hunter Renfrow LV -4.1
129 WR60 Adam Thielen CAR -4.2
130 WR61 Michael Gallup DAL -4.2
131 RB39 Khalil Herbert CHI -4.2
132 TE15 Tyler Higbee LAR -4.3
133 WR62 DeVante Parker NE -4.4
134 RB40 Jerome Ford CLE -4.4
135 WR63 Alec Pierce IND -4.4
136 WR64 Josh Downs IND -4.5
137 TE16 Greg Dulcich DEN -4.5
138 WR65 Jonathan Mingo CAR -4.5
139 RB41 Jeff Wilson MIA -4.6
140 RB42 Zach Charbonnet SEA -4.6
141 QB18 Brock Purdy SF -4.7
142 TE17 Hunter Henry NE -4.7
143 TE18 Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN -4.8
144 TE19 Hayden Hurst CAR -4.9
145 WR66 Allen Lazard NYJ -4.9
146 WR67 Rashee Rice KC -5.0
147 QB20 Jared Goff DET -5.1
148 TE20 Irv Smith CIN -5.1
149 QB19 Derek Carr NO -5.2
150 RB43 Tank Bigsby JAC -5.2
151 WR68 Van Jefferson LAR -5.2
152 WR69 Rashod Bateman BAL -5.3
153 TE21 Luke Musgrave GB -5.3
154 TE22 Tyler Conklin NYJ -5.3
155 WR70 Marvin Mims DEN -5.4
156 WR71 Darius Slayton NYG -5.5
157 TE23 Dalton Schultz HOU -5.6
158 WR72 Jameson Williams DET -5.8
159 RB44 Rashaad Penny PHI -5.8
160 RB45 Tyler Allgeier ATL -5.9
161 RB46 Kenneth Gainwell PHI -5.9
162 WR73 Kyle Philips TEN -6.0
163 TE24 Cole Kmet CHI -6.0
164 RB47 Damien Harris BUF -6.2
165 QB21 Jordan Love GB -6.2
166 RB48 Sean Tucker TB -6.3
167 RB49 Jaylen Warren PIT -6.3
168 WR74 Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE -6.3
169 TE25 Jelani Woods IND -6.3
170 RB50 Jerick McKinnon KC -6.3
171 QB22 Bryce Young CAR -6.3
172 WR75 John Metchie HOU -6.4
173 WR76 Zay Jones JAC -6.4
174 WR77 Mecole Hardman NYJ -6.6
175 WR78 Marvin Jones DET -6.6
176 WR79 Michael Wilson ARI -6.6
177 QB23 Mac Jones NE -6.7
178 WR80 Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC -6.7
179 QB24 Kyler Murray ARI -6.7
180 RB51 Cordarrelle Patterson ATL -6.7
181 TE26 Cade Otton TB -6.8
182 WR81 Jayden Reed GB -6.8
183 WR82 D.J. Chark CAR -6.9
184 TE27 Sam LaPorta DET -6.9
185 RB52 Roschon Johnson CHI -7.0
186 QB25 Sam Howell WAS -7.0
187 TE28 Trey McBride ARI -7.0
188 WR83 Rondale Moore ARI -7.1
189 WR84 K.J. Osborn MIN -7.1
190 WR85 Puka Nacua LAR -7.1
191 QB26 Jimmy Garoppolo LV -7.3
192 TE29 Dawson Knox BUF -7.3
193 WR86 Terrace Marshall Jr. CAR -7.4
194 WR87 Robert Woods HOU -7.4
195 QB27 Ryan Tannehill TEN -7.5
196 RB53 Jamaal Williams NO -7.5
197 QB28 Desmond Ridder ATL -7.5
198 TE30 Mike Gesicki NE -7.6
199 QB29 Kenny Pickett PIT -7.6
200 RB54 Ezekiel Elliott NE -7.6
201 RB55 Kendre Miller NO -7.6
202 RB56 Zamir White LV -8.0
203 RB57 Elijah Mitchell SF -8.0
204 RB58 Devin Singletary HOU -8.0
205 RB59 Deneric Prince KC -8.1
206 RB60 Deuce Vaughn DAL -8.1
207 RB61 Ty Chandler MIN -8.2
208 RB62 Evan Hull IND -8.2
209 RB63 Jordan Mason SF -8.2
210 QB30 Matthew Stafford LAR -8.2
211 TE31 Jonnu Smith ATL -8.5
212 TE32 Michael Mayer LV -8.6
213 TE33 Isaiah Likely BAL -8.6
214 QB31 C.J. Stroud HOU -8.7
215 RB64 Raheem Blackshear CAR -8.8
216 RB65 D'Onta Foreman CHI -9.0
217 RB66 Chuba Hubbard CAR -9.2
218 RB67 Gus Edwards BAL -9.4
219 TE34 Darnell Washington PIT -9.7
220 TE35 Noah Fant SEA -9.9


PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC



Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.