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Top 200 Big Board, Superflex PPR: Version 1.0


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 8/18/23 |
PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC


Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men try to work in harmony roughly 60 times per game, while 11 other men make it their job to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is also not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. In football, every player needs some help to accomplish his goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards now - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it does not mean we should not try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make more than 8,000 "decisions". Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. Even if my grading process is only 70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst that does not consider it at all.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst is to identify when stocks are poised to skyrocket or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. I have taken this approach for more than 15 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions. As always, the matchup grades are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern. In addition, I have added distinct tiers for this round of Big Boards (represented by the different colors in the "FPos" column).

Over the next few days, I will release my first Big Board for FFPC leagues. In the second and final round of Big Boards near the end of the preseason, I will rank at least 225 players and present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format:

 Superflex Big Board (PPR) - Top 200
Rk Pos Player Tm SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1 QB1 Jalen Hurts PHI 9.7
2 QB2 Josh Allen BUF 9.1
3 WR1 Justin Jefferson MIN 8.6
4 QB3 Lamar Jackson BAL 8.2
5 QB4 Patrick Mahomes KC 7.3
6 QB5 Justin Herbert LAC 7.3
7 WR2 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 7.1
8 WR3 Cooper Kupp LAR 7.1
9 RB1 Christian McCaffrey SF 7.0
10 WR4 Tyreek Hill MIA 7.0
11 QB6 Joe Burrow CIN 6.9
12 QB7 Justin Fields CHI 5.9
13 RB2 Austin Ekeler LAC 5.5
14 QB8 Trevor Lawrence JAC 5.5
15 QB9 Deshaun Watson CLE 5.3
16 QB10 Geno Smith SEA 5.2
17 RB3 Nick Chubb CLE 5.1
18 RB4 Bijan Robinson ATL 4.9
19 WR5 CeeDee Lamb DAL 4.7
20 WR6 Davante Adams LV 4.3
21 TE1 Travis Kelce KC 4.3
22 QB11 Anthony Richardson IND 4.2
23 QB12 Kirk Cousins MIN 3.8
24 QB13 Russell Wilson DEN 3.8
25 QB14 Dak Prescott DAL 3.6
26 WR7 Stefon Diggs BUF 3.5
27 WR8 Garrett Wilson NYJ 3.4
28 WR9 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 3.2
29 RB5 Tony Pollard DAL 3.2
30 RB6 Saquon Barkley NYG 3.1
31 QB15 Aaron Rodgers NYJ 3.0
32 WR10 A.J. Brown PHI 2.9
33 WR11 Jaylen Waddle MIA 2.9
34 QB16 Daniel Jones NYG 2.9
35 RB7 Derrick Henry TEN 2.3
36 WR12 Calvin Ridley JAC 2.1
37 RB8 Jonathan Taylor IND 2.0
38 WR13 Chris Olave NO 2.0
39 RB9 Joe Mixon CIN 1.5
40 RB10 Aaron Jones GB 1.4
41 TE2 Mark Andrews BAL 1.3
42 RB11 Rhamondre Stevenson NE 1.3
43 QB17 Derek Carr NO 1.3
44 QB18 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 1.2
45 WR14 DeVonta Smith PHI 1.2
46 WR15 Keenan Allen LAC 1.2
47 QB19 Jared Goff DET 1.0
48 RB12 Dameon Pierce HOU 0.9
49 WR16 DK Metcalf SEA 0.9
50 QB20 Kyler Murray ARI 0.9
51 RB13 Jahmyr Gibbs DET 0.9
52 WR17 Tee Higgins CIN 0.9
53 RB14 Breece Hall NYJ 0.9
54 WR18 Terry McLaurin WAS 0.8
55 RB15 Najee Harris PIT 0.8
56 WR19 Tyler Lockett SEA 0.7
57 WR20 Brandon Aiyuk SF 0.7
58 RB16 David Montgomery DET 0.5
59 RB17 J.K. Dobbins BAL 0.5
60 WR21 D.J. Moore CHI 0.5
61 QB21 Brock Purdy SF 0.4
62 QB22 Jordan Love GB 0.4
63 QB23 Sam Howell WAS 0.4
64 TE3 Darren Waller NYG 0.3
65 QB24 Ryan Tannehill TEN 0.1
66 QB25 Mac Jones NE 0.0
67 RB18 Kenneth Walker SEA 0.0
68 WR22 Deebo Samuel SF -0.1
69 QB26 Bryce Young CAR -0.1
70 WR23 Amari Cooper CLE -0.2
71 RB19 Miles Sanders CAR -0.2
72 WR24 Jerry Jeudy DEN -0.2
73 WR25 DeAndre Hopkins TEN -0.3
74 WR26 Drake London ATL -0.4
75 WR27 Mike Williams LAC -0.4
76 RB20 Travis Etienne JAC -0.4
77 WR28 Gabriel Davis BUF -0.5
78 WR29 Christian Watson GB -0.5
79 WR30 Courtland Sutton DEN -0.5
80 WR31 Elijah Moore CLE -0.5
81 WR32 Diontae Johnson PIT -0.6
82 WR33 Christian Kirk JAC -0.6
83 WR34 Chris Godwin TB -0.7
84 WR35 Mike Evans TB -0.7
85 RB21 James Cook BUF -0.8
86 RB22 Cam Akers LAR -0.8
87 RB23 James Conner ARI -0.9
88 QB27 Matthew Stafford LAR -0.9
89 QB28 Kenny Pickett PIT -0.9
90 RB24 Rachaad White TB -0.9
91 RB25 Alexander Mattison MIN -1.0
92 QB29 C.J. Stroud HOU -1.1
93 WR36 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA -1.2
94 RB26 Alvin Kamara NO -1.3
95 WR37 Michael Pittman Jr. IND -1.3
96 RB27 Josh Jacobs LV -1.4
97 WR38 George Pickens PIT -1.7
98 TE4 T.J. Hockenson MIN -1.7
99 WR39 Treylon Burks TEN -1.8
100 WR40 Jordan Addison MIN -1.8
101 TE5 Evan Engram JAC -1.9
102 RB28 Antonio Gibson WAS -1.9
103 WR41 Brandin Cooks DAL -2.0
104 TE6 Dallas Goedert PHI -2.0
105 RB29 Javonte Williams DEN -2.0
106 WR42 Kadarius Toney KC -2.0
107 TE7 David Njoku CLE -2.0
108 QB30 Desmond Ridder ATL -2.0
109 WR43 Marquise Brown ARI -2.1
110 WR44 Jahan Dotson WAS -2.2
111 QB31 Baker Mayfield TB -2.3
112 WR45 JuJu Smith-Schuster NE -2.3
113 RB30 Devon Achane MIA -2.3
114 TE8 George Kittle SF -2.5
115 TE9 Kyle Pitts ATL -2.6
116 RB31 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS -2.6
117 WR46 Zay Flowers BAL -2.7
118 TE10 Gerald Everett LAC -2.8
119 WR47 Jakobi Meyers LV -2.9
120 RB32 D'Andre Swift PHI -2.9
121 WR48 Skyy Moore KC -2.9
122 WR49 Nico Collins HOU -3.0
123 WR50 Allen Lazard NYJ -3.0
124 WR51 Romeo Doubs GB -3.0
125 QB32 Jimmy Garoppolo LV -3.1
126 WR52 Michael Thomas NO -3.1
127 TE11 Juwan Johnson NO -3.2
128 RB33 Isiah Pacheco KC -3.2
129 RB34 Samaje Perine DEN -3.3
130 WR53 Quentin Johnston LAC -3.3
131 RB35 Zach Charbonnet SEA -3.3
132 TE12 Tyler Higbee LAR -3.5
133 WR54 Isaiah Hodgins NYG -3.5
134 TE13 Pat Freiermuth PIT -3.5
135 TE14 Jake Ferguson DAL -3.6
136 TE15 Dalton Kincaid BUF -3.7
137 TE16 Dalton Schultz HOU -3.7
138 WR55 Michael Gallup DAL -3.8
139 WR56 Marvin Mims DEN -3.8
140 WR57 DeVante Parker NE -3.9
141 WR58 Jonathan Mingo CAR -4.0
142 RB36 Tank Bigsby JAC -4.1
143 TE17 Greg Dulcich DEN -4.1
144 WR59 Darnell Mooney CHI -4.2
145 WR60 Alec Pierce IND -4.3
146 RB37 Dalvin Cook NYJ -4.3
147 TE18 Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN -4.3
148 WR61 Tyler Boyd CIN -4.3
149 RB38 AJ Dillon GB -4.3
150 RB39 Khalil Herbert CHI -4.4
151 TE19 Hunter Henry NE -4.4
152 WR62 Odell Beckham Jr. BAL -4.4
153 RB40 Jeff Wilson MIA -4.5
154 WR63 Adam Thielen CAR -4.6
155 RB41 Jerome Ford CLE -4.7
156 WR64 Parris Campbell NYG -4.7
157 TE20 Tyler Conklin NYJ -4.7
158 TE21 Luke Musgrave GB -4.7
159 RB42 Tyjae Spears TEN -4.9
160 WR65 Rashod Bateman BAL -4.9
161 TE22 Cole Kmet CHI -5.0
162 WR66 Curtis Samuel WAS -5.1
163 WR67 Hunter Renfrow LV -5.1
164 WR68 Van Jefferson LAR -5.1
165 RB43 Damien Harris BUF -5.1
166 WR69 Robert Woods HOU -5.2
167 WR70 Puka Nacua LAR -5.2
168 RB44 Jaylen Warren PIT -5.4
169 WR71 Mecole Hardman NYJ -5.4
170 TE23 Sam LaPorta DET -5.5
171 WR72 Darius Slayton NYG -5.5
172 WR73 John Metchie HOU -5.5
173 WR74 Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC -5.7
174 WR75 Rashee Rice KC -5.8
175 WR76 Zay Jones JAC -5.9
176 WR77 Josh Downs IND -5.9
177 WR78 K.J. Osborn MIN -6.1
178 WR79 Michael Wilson ARI -6.1
179 RB45 Tyler Allgeier ATL -6.1
180 RB46 Elijah Mitchell SF -6.2
181 TE24 Irv Smith CIN -6.3
182 RB47 Devin Singletary HOU -6.4
183 RB48 Rashaad Penny PHI -6.5
184 WR80 Jameson Williams DET -6.5
185 WR81 D.J. Chark CAR -6.5
186 TE25 Jelani Woods IND -6.5
187 RB49 Jerick McKinnon KC -6.6
188 TE26 Hayden Hurst CAR -6.7
189 RB50 Jamaal Williams NO -6.7
190 RB51 Deuce Vaughn DAL -6.8
191 RB52 Ezekiel Elliott NE -7.0
192 RB53 Zamir White LV -7.2
193 RB54 Roschon Johnson CHI -7.2
194 RB55 Sean Tucker TB -7.7
195 RB56 Kendre Miller NO -7.7
196 RB57 Gus Edwards BAL -8.1
197 RB58 Kenneth Gainwell PHI -8.1
198 RB59 D'Onta Foreman CHI -8.1
199 RB60 Ty Chandler MIN -8.1
200 RB61 Joshua Kelley LAC -8.2


PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.